Month: October 2010 (Page 3 of 4)

The NFC West is a four way battle. In any other division, the San Francisco 49ers would be done at 0-5. They’re probably done anyway, but at least some people (including the Niners organisation) seriously believe they can turn this around. They’ve still got seven divisional games that are all winnable, so it’s not impossible. My view is – whilst no one team takes the initiative and strings a few wins together, the Niners have an unlikely shot.

Also in the NFC West we have a decidedly uncertain future at quarterback. Sam Bradford is entrenched in St. Louis for years and is quite possibly the best QB in the division already. San Fran’s fans turned on Alex Smith on Sunday as the Niners lost a close one to Philadelphia. Arizona started UDFA Max Hall in a victory over New Orleans. The Seahawks are sticking by Matt Hasselbeck despite three consecutive difficult performances. There’s every possibility that this time next year, none of those QB’s are even on their respective team’s rosters. Continue reading

North Carolina came into 2010 with a star studded defense full of top draft prospects. Today, three of those prospects were officially ruled out for the year. UNC made star defensive end Robert Quinn and receiver Greg Little ineligible and dismissed defensive tackle Marvin Austin. The NCAA said Quinn and Little were to be made ineligble after violating rules involving agent benefits, preferential treatment and ethical conduct. Reports say they accepted “jewelry, travel accommodations and other benefits” and “according to facts submitted by the university, Little took nearly $5,000 worth of benefits and the value of Quinn’s total exceeded $5,600.”

Austin had been suspended since September 1st after violating an unnamed team rule. The Tar Heels did not seek to have him reinstated. The trio were amongst 13 players who didn’t start the season whilst an investigation was conducted. Some have been able to return, but this development is pretty substantial considering the high profile individuals involved. Quinn had been expected to be a very high first round pick next April, potentially first overall. He had 11 sacks last season. There’s a chance he’ll still go early, but teams will look into this situation and do their homework. You have to wonder also if not playing for essentially two years (that’s what it’ll be when he makes his NFL debut) will affect his performance or conditioning?

Little was considered a mid-round level receiver. He lacks elite blazing speed, but he’s a solid overall prospect with good ball skills and plays with a competitive edge. In 2009 he recorded 724 receiving yards and five touchdowns. Austin was a little bit over rated as a first round prospect – for me he was strictly in the mid-round range. He had perhaps the most to prove this year – he missed two games in 2009 as a coaches decision. Questions have been asked about his attitude and work ethic. You watch the tape and want to see more from a guy with his size and potential – he just doesn’t bring it every play. He didn’t need to be dismissed without playing a snap in 2010.

Essentially, all three can now prepare for the combine. That could be a make or break situation for all. If they take for granted this time off and show up at Indianapolis in anything but peak condition – teams will just plant a red flag in their direction. If they can work hard and stay in game shape, that’ll be considered a plus. Dez Bryant (WR, Dallas) missed the vast majority of 2009 but remained a first round pick. He didn’t, however, go as early as some people thought he could do. For a guy like Quinn, not performing may not be such a terrible thing. People remember his 2009 performances which were raw but generally good. Little will probably do enough – if he works hard – to maintain his stock. Austin has a major challenge to repair the damage created by this dismissal.

There’s just two games on the schedule this weekend for me due to the MLB playoffs and NHL return bumping CFB from the network. I’ve got Alabama at South Carolina and LSU at Florida. There are more intriguing games out there from a NFL Draft prospective. The Florida State vs Miami game puts Allen Bailey and Rodney Hudson in one-on-one combat which should be fun to watch. It’s also a chance for Christian Ponder (QB, FSU) to repair his stock on the road after a rough showing at Oklahoma. If you get a chance to watch this game unlike me – keep an eye on Brandon Harris (CB, Miami) who’s really climbing up the boards at the moment.

It’ll be interesting to see how Andrew Luck and Stanford bounce back after defeat against Oregon last week. They face USC at home, which could be a tricky one to negotiate despite Washington’s victory over the Trojans last week. Jake Locker and the Huskies entertain Arizona State needing a win to maintain their momentum. Pittsburgh at Notre Dame might not be the most entertaining to watch, but it’ll feature two big names wide outs – Michael Floyd (ND) and Jonathan Baldwin (Pitt). Other notable draft prospects include UCLA’s OLB Akeem Ayers at California, DE Da’Quan Bowers of Clemson at UNC and Ryan Mallett hoping to out-gun Jerrod Johnson and Texas A&M.

Going back to the two featured games I can watch, here’s two prospects I’ll be looking out for:

Julio Jones (WR, Alabama) vs South Carolina
We’ve seen the best and worst from Jones so far this year. His stunning one-handed catch in week one flashed his brilliance, but he’s also showed his lack of concentration and execution too. Some pundits have him in the top ten of their mocks, whilst others (like Scouts Inc.) give him a second round grade. Clearly he looks like a #1 pro wide out, but teams will need to see greater consistency and effort. Jones was shut out by Janoris Jenkins last week, but Alabama didn’t need much offense to beat a hopeless Florida. This will be a tougher game on the road and the Crimson Tide will need their top receiver to have an impact.

Janoris Jenkins (CB, Florida) vs LSU
The Tigers’ offense has been poor again this year, but they’ve still won games. That’ll be tested against a Gators team that should be motivated to make up for last week’s beat-down in Alabama. If the Gators get in front early, it’ll force LSU to throw and that could be good news for Janoris Jenkins. He’s so far displayed good coverage skills and an ability to shut down one of CFB’s top receivers. There’s definitely opportunities in this game to get a pick or two and Jenkins has that ability to turn it into six points the other way. He might come up against Terrance Tolliver (WR, LSU) who’s been disappointing so far in 2010 – but remains a prospect with some potential who can be a threat.

I’d like to thank blog favorite Kip Earlywine for bringing this article to my attention. There’s an opinion amongst some that drafting a quarterback in the early rounds is something to avoid and that there are often better options later on. It’s certainly true that later round QB’s have battled the odds to have great success in the NFL – namely Tom Brady in New England. However, the DC Times posted this interesting research that shows first round quarterbacks might actually be better bets than previously thought. In looking to measure the success of a quarterback once drafted, the piece of uncredited work relates to Pro Bowl appearances as the determining factor. That’s a pretty fair assessment. Whilst some obviously go to the Pro Bowl on a one off or when other ‘bigger names’ have pulled out, it’s usually a sign of some degree of success for your drafted quarterback to make an all-star game. Indeed, the article itself acknowledges it isn’t a flawless sample.

So what did they find?

“There is a noticeable relationship between a quarterback’s draft position and his future success. Among all first-rounders, there is a 32% chance of making a single Pro Bowl.  That number actually rises to 38% among first round quarterbacks.  Thus, highly-drafted quarterbacks may be slightly more likely to find success than first-rounders at other positions.”

This isn’t just a first round issue either.

“Second-rounders of all positions have a 15.3% chance of making a single Pro Bowl.  Among quarterbacks, that number soars to 32%.  Thus, second round quarterbacks are as likely to make a Pro Bowl as first-rounders at all positions (and more likely after we eliminate the first round quarterbacks). The higher probability of quarterback Pro Bowls continues in the third round, where 13% of signal-callers reach a Pro Bowl, compared to just 6.4% of third-rounders in general. Also note the steep decline in Pro Bowl appearances among third and fourth round quarterbacks. Ultimately, there is a fairly strong correlation between draft round and Pro Bowl appearances.  While the relationship exists for all positions, it is significantly stronger for quarterbacks than for players at other positions.”

It makes for interesting reading. Essentially if you use this advice as a small but useful sample – it is significantly harder to find Pro Bowl quarterbacks outside of the top two rounds. Hardly rocket science as you’d expect the most talented prospects to go early. But what it does suggest is rather than produce a never ending pot of gold, the Tom Brady’s, Matt Hasselbeck’s and Marc Bulger’s off this world are very much the exception to the rule.

The research ends by suggesting the second round, on their evidence, is perhaps the best time to select a quarterback. I would instead choose to end it by singling out the fact that quarterbacks taken in round one are above average amongst other positions with regard Pro Bowl appearances. There are a lot of other positions of greater risk. It might be a leap of faith to commit to a prospect to be the face of the franchise – to lead from the most important position. However – it may end up being a better investment than many other positions when all is said and done.

Chris Clemons has four sacks in four starts

What are the Seahawks’ greatest needs? Nearly everyone would say a long term answer at quarterback. I suspect a few people would point to further improvements on the offensive line. Some would suggest cornerback is a big need, especially after significant changes amongst the secondary this year. A decent majority may also point to the wide receiver position. You could probably guarantee a lot of people will also say defensive end.

The team’s trade of Darryl Tapp last March raised a few eye brows. The 26-year-old former second round pick registered 17 sacks during his four years in Seattle and was considered by many to be one of the few potential building blocks on defense. A fourth round pick in the 2010 draft and Chris Clemons were the bounty picked up for dealing Tapp to the Philadelphia Eagles. Clemons – a situational pass rusher and journeyman – gathered minimal attention amongst Pete Carroll and John Schneider’s cauldron of activity. After four games of the 2010 NFL season, Clemons has four sacks – good for second in the NFC behind only Green Bay’s Clay Matthews (7 sacks). He’s on pace for 16 sacks for the year – which seems unlikely – but certainly a realistic aim would be double digits after an excellent start.

Can stats like sack numbers be deceptive? Of course. Seattle’s pass rush has been better when supported by a noisy Qwest Field environment. It hasn’t been as dominant on the road, but it certainly hasn’t been the team’s greatest issue. It’s important to remember also that the Seahawks rank 29th in time of possession. Only Arizona, Carolina and Buffalo have spent less time on offense after four weeks – three teams who have all changed their quarterbacks already and total a current 2-10 record. A pass rush is at it’s best when it isn’t being asked to spend the majority of a game on the field making up for an offensive crisis.

That said, the saying goes you can never have too many good pass rushers. Clemons will be 29-years-old at the end of October and likely isn’t a definitive long term answer at the position, even if his short term play over the next 2-3 years could warrant serious praise. Using a more structured rotation will also help the defense if there’s no drop off in pressure when a guy like Clemons takes a breather. The class of defensive ends for 2011 are a mixed bag of unknowns, under achievers and over achievers. Robert Quinn (UNC) looks like a potential top-five pick, but he remains suspended and might not take the field for the Tar Heels this year. Adrian Clayborn (Iowa) is a great player to watch but has only managed a single sack in 2010 so far and doesn’t own the elite edge-speed perhaps needed to dominate the pro’s like he does in college. Allen Bailey (Miami) is another who looks the part, but doesn’t bring it anywhere near enough. Jeremy Beal (Oklahoma) has 18 sacks in his last 18 appearances for the Sooners, but can that success translate to the next level? DaQuan Bowers (Clemson) is a former #1 ranked overall recruit, but has been slowed by injuries and inconsistency leading up to this year – although he appears to be making up for lost time now and could even break the top ten next April. Ryan Kerrigan (Purdue) is a high motor, big effort guy with five sacks in 2010 but is he a poor man’s Chris Long?

A few weeks ago I had a look at the recent history of defensive ends drated in round one. In the five drafts that took place between 2004 and 2008, there have been four solid-to-elite prospects drafted. Will Smith (2004, Saints), DeMarcus Ware (2005, Cowboys), Mario Williams (2006, Texans) and Tamba Hali (2006, Chiefs). There have been 13 busts – including Lawrence Jackson (2008, Seattle), Jarvis Moss (2007, Denver) and Vernon Gholston (2008, NYJ). During that same time frame Jared Allen, Trent Cole, Elvis Dumervil and LaMarr Woodley were all taken outside of the first round.

What I’d take out of that small sample is that teams clearly value the defensive end position and have perhaps over rated certain prospects in trying to find that elusive edge rusher. Maybe a guy dominated in college and made a lot of sacks but just couldn’t do the same against much greater opponents in the NFL? Being able to record sacks and place such high value on one statistic in CFB may at times be as detrimental as reading too much into a QB coming from a pass-happy offense. Either way, the recent history of drafting defensive ends isn’t great.

Look at the stats for the current NFL season after four games. Amongst the top ten currently leading the sack rankings, there are four undrafted free agents, one fourth round pick and two fifth rounders. There are two first round choices listed. It’s still early in the season and things can change, but it certainly shows that good pass rushers can be found without necessarily spending the top draft picks.

The Seahawks will of course consider every possibility next April – which is still much too far away to accurately project anyway. However, they may be afforded the opportunity to concentrate on other areas of the team – most noticeably on offense – as they continue the climb back to relevancy under Pete Carroll’s regime.

Marshawn Lynch brings 'beast mode' to Seattle

The Seahawks acquired Marshawn Lynch via trade today in a deal that will cost a 2011 4th round pick and a conditional 2012 draft choice. So how does this leave the 2012 draft following another big trade? Seattle still possesses it’s own selections in rounds one, two, five and seven. The third round pick was spent on Charlie Whitehurst and the sixth rounder on Kentwan Balmer. In addition, the Seahawks acquired a conditional pick from Baltimore for Josh Wilson which could rise to a fourth round selection. The Lawrence Jackson trade brought in a 6th round choice from Detroit to replace the one spent on Balmer. Seattle also gained a conditional 2011 pick for Seneca Wallace after he was traded to Cleveland in March. The deals involving Rob Sims and Darryl Tapp brought in 2010 draft picks that have already been used. Tyler Polumbus was traded to Seattle for what is believed to be a late round pick in 2012.

A lot to take in then right? It just goes to show how busy the Seahawks have been since Pete Carroll and John Schneider arrived in Seattle. Simply put, the Seahawks may end up with a full quota of picks (rounds 1-7) aside from the third rounder spent on Whitehurst. The worst case scenario would likely mean owning two fifth round choices instead of a 4th and a 5th, depending on the Josh Wilson deal. Seattle may also gain a compensatory pick for losing Nate Burleson in free agency. Taking that into consideration, spending a fourth round pick on a running back that is 24 years old and has been to Pro Bowls could be deemed a risk worth taking. 

But what else have we learnt here? For starters, this is a regime not afraid to make deals. Some trades have worked (moving Tapp for Chris Clemons appears to be a master stroke, Seattle even got a 4th rounder out of the deal) whilst others haven’t (moves for Kevin Vickerson and LenDale White – both since cut). Whilst the front office continue to piece together the team’s identity, I suspect they’ll keep making moves. It’s a pro-active approach. Some teams wouldn’t dream of coughing up draft picks – and Seattle’s value in the 2010 draft late on proves the potential is there to get starting caliber players in the later rounds. However – the Seahawks cannot afford not to be pro-active. Drafts alone will not a great team make and it makes greater sense to invest in younger talent that has stalled rather than invest huge sums of money in ageing veterans during free agency like the previous regime.

The move for Lynch also stresses the importance Pete Carroll and his staff have placed on the running back position. Is this an attempt to find a quality runner without spending the big money in round one? Or is this a sign that perhaps if given the opportunity, they may well consider investing in a stud like Mark Ingram next year?

It’s interesting also that they feel better quality at running back was needed rather than solving other issues within the game plan. Perhaps if Lynch fails to generate a productive ground game, it’ll only stress the Seahawks’ need to stretch the field a little more – either by improving at receiver or by using/signing a quarterback who can get the ball downfield. Whilst ever the offense is relying on short-range passes of no more than 10-15 yards maximum, opposition defenses will only have a short area to cover – making it very difficult to create running room whoever carries the rock.

The Lynch trade could indirectly open up debate as to what the Seahawks need to do next April and what prospects they may target.

Washington's Jake Locker is back in the top-20

Here’s this weeks updated mock draft. I’ve extended it to a top-20 projection and plan to keep progressing into a full first-round mock over the next 4-5 weeks. Seattle are back in the mock after Sunday’s 20-3 whimper at St. Louis. With a three-way tie at the top of the NFC West and thanks largely to the performance of the Rams defense and rookie QB/saviour Sam Bradford, I’ve left them out as this week’s ‘pick to win the West’. It’s only fair, having so far already left out Arizona, San Francisco and Seattle.

Andrew Luck still tops the board. Why? It’s clear to me the hype surrounding Luck will almost certainly mask the issues a handful of people (like myself) have voiced. During the broadcast of Oregon and Stanford, Luck was anointed ‘the best quarterback in CFB since Peyton Manning’ by the announcers. Of course, that isn’t true. In fact Sam Bradford would probably be annoyed if he wasn’t just winning games in the NFL on a $50m contract. Luck is neither as accurate as Bradford or in possession of the physical qualities of Matt Stafford. He’s a good, solid college game manager. That’s fine for Stanford.

That probably won’t be fine for the Buffalo Bills.

Whilst the Cardinal continue to get national attention and whilst Luck continues to score rave reviews nationally, momentum will build and he’ll almost certainly declare for next year’s draft. There’s already a lot of talk saying Luck will take advantage of his newly found fame. Buffalo raised a few eye brows when they took C.J. Spiller in the top ten last April. There’s every chance they might prefer the flashier, higher ceiling that belongs to Jake Locker. However – Luck at this stage appears destined to be the #1 pick. I don’t think he’s as good as advertised, but Buffalo almost have to go for a QB. I don’t envy the decision between Luck and Locker that they’ll have to make.

What about Seattle? What about Locker? I’ll answer both at the same time. The Seahawks biggest need is at quarterback. That would be the case even if Matt Hasselbeck was currently enjoying a Pro-Bowl type-revival season (he isn’t). This is a quarterback driven league and Seattle hasn’t solved that riddle to the previous regimes discredit. John Schneider and Pete Carroll rolled the dice to some extent on Charlie Whitehurst and should, I believe, be praised for at least taking a chance on finding a solution.

However, there’s nothing to suggest Whitehurst has proven the long term answer. He may only ever prove to be a stop-gap bridge or a solid backup. Either way, I think two things are clear. Firstly, legend that he is I don’t think Matt Hasselbeck will be part of the Seahawks roster next year. Secondly, they will absolutely have to bring in one quarterback. The options were limited last year (only Bradford and Tebow taken in round one). If they see a guy they want next April, they might just spend the house to get him. Then again, maybe they won’t have to move from their draft position? Either way, the chances Seattle drafts a QB next year increase every week.

Locker deserves to be back in the top-15 after a bounce back win against USC. A lot of people have pointed at the number of roll outs and running he did in the 400+ total yard performance. They may be legitimate points, but it took some guts to win that game after the Nebraska meltdown. People criticise Locker for not winning enough games, but he got the job done in SoCal. The target has to be finding a level of consistency for the rest of the year. No more Nebraska’s. If he can do that, of course teams will consider him in the top ten.

You can view the latest Seahawks Draft Blog mock by clicking here or selecting ‘Mock Draft’ in the title bar.