Month: October 2011 (Page 3 of 3)

Why I’m rooting for Landry Jones

by Kip Earlywine

In my opinion, there are two truly special quarterback prospects in this draft (assuming they declare):  Andrew Luck and Matt Barkley.  After that, there’s a drop off point to the remaining quarterbacks, including Landry Jones.  I’m not as critical of the remaining quarterback group as Rob is, but I do agree that there is a big difference in quality after Barkley leaves the board.

However, I think its fairly certain that there will be more than two quarterbacks drafted in the 1st round.  On his current trajectory, I have a hard time seeing Landry Jones escaping it.  For one, quarterback prospects with no doubter first round tools usually become first round picks almost regardless of whatever issues they may have.  In recent years both Jake Locker and Josh Freeman have provided examples of this.  For another, teams value production, and Jones has certainly had plenty of that.  On a high profile, high ranked team no less.  You put that all together, and its very hard not seeing Jones as a top 15 pick, even if his game is far from perfect under close scrutiny.

And I think that’s a good thing, maybe a great thing.  And not because I think Seattle will draft Jones, but for the opposite reason.  A few notable draft experts have been harsh to Matt Barkley, giving him a grade in the late 1st round.  The real debate about this upcoming draft should be Luck vs. Barkley, but I suspect the actual debate will become Barkley vs. Jones for the honor of being the second quarterback off the board.  Luck’s draft hype is approaching legendary status, and he’s done nothing on the field to dispel it.  With Luck’s star shining so brightly, it creates the illusion that Matt Barkley is somehow a much lesser quarterback, which opens the door for Landry Jones.

The thing about draft stock is that so much of it is built on hype and reputation.  Right now, Landry Jones is leading an undefeated team that ranks #2 in the nation.  He’s likely to break Sam Bradford’s school records for passing.  What if he wins the national championship?  If he does that, you might even have some draft personalities playfully comparing his stock to Andrew Luck’s.  The storylines write themselves:  Jones even wears the same #12 jersey number as Andrew Luck (oddly enough, so does Austin Davis and John Brantley- two other QBs who could potentially force their way into round one).

So why is this  a good thing?  Well for one, anything that pushes Matt Barkley down the draft board is a good thing for the Seahawks.  Seattle has probably blown its chances for the #1 pick already, and after an impressive performance against the Falcons, I’m thinking 5 or 6 wins is certainly a possibility for 2011 Seahawks.  Perhaps Barkley could slip to the 10th pick after being leapfrogged by a bigger, stronger competitor like Blaine Gabbert was earlier this year, or like how Matt Leinart was in 2006.

The second reason that high draft stock for Jones is good thing:  it creates the perception that this is a quarterback heavy class, which might help entice a #1 picking team to trade out of Andrew Luck; the same way that Philip Rivers helped facilitate a deal for Eli Manning.  What if Landry Jones reaches Seattle’s pick, and a trade of Jones plus two future 1st round picks is enough to entice the top picking franchise into moving Luck?  Depending on how highly they rate Jones, that’s a possibility.  Same thing for Matt Barkley.  Its an expensive offer, but one Seattle should absolutely consider making.

A third reason would be that if Jones fell to the Seahawks pick, and Barkley was already gone, Seattle could use Jones as an incentive for other teams to trade with them.  Trading down in the first round isn’t easy, unless you’ve got a valued quarterback in your draft slot.  Trading down could make more sense than ever in 2012, as the first round prospects are looking weaker than usual but the 2nd round is looking relatively strong.  Seattle could swing Landry Jones and pick up Ryan Tannehill (or Austin Davis) plus Chris Polk in exchange.  Tannehill isn’t completely perfect, but at a minimum, I think he’s got what it takes to be an ideal fit as a point guard quarterback, and with a little time, could produce.  I think he’s the 2nd best point guard quarterback in this draft after Luck, and probably the 4th best quarterback overall.  I’ll refrain from grading Davis as I’ve seen so little of him, but what I’ve seen has impressed me.  Chris Polk deserves a topic in itself, but I think its hard to ignore the success he’s had in almost an identical offense to Seattle’s.

So why not have the Seahawks just draft Landry Jones for themselves?  I want to be clear that this post is not going to be a scouting report, and I won’t go into details just yet about his game.  That said, I’m a fan of Jones, and for the right team I could see him becoming successful in the NFL, but I don’t think that team is Pete Carroll’s Seahawks.  Recent events have convinced me of Pete Carroll’s true aim at quarterback.  I’ll have a separate post on this topic soon.  But for now, I’ll only say that I have a hard time seeing Pete Carroll drafting Landry Jones because of several trait mismatches.  Its possible that John Schneider could feel differently and create a behind the scenes controversy (I hope not, nor do I expect that), but outside of that remote possibility, I don’t think Seattle would draft him.   I won’t go in depth right now, but the reason I feel this way is because Landry Jones isn’t mobile, he’s inconsistent, and he’s a big play type quarterback.  Or to put it another way, he’s a less extreme Ryan Mallett with fewer NFL skills, and the front office avoided Mallett like the plague.  Mallett was a complicated case, but given that Carroll has already waited this long to find “Mr. Right” at quarterback, I don’t think he’d compromise now.

If Seattle can’t finish with the worst record in football to secure Luck (and they won’t), the next best thing is to hope for a crowded quarterback class at the top.  The more options there are at the top of the draft, the more likely the quarterback Seattle actually wants could fall to their pick, and potential attempts to maneuver for a quarterback either up or down would be easier to pull off as well.

Thoughts on Ryan Tannehill & a pair of Clemson Tigers

Ryan Tannehill - far from a first round pick

Not impressed with Ryan Tannehill (QB, Texas A&M) vs Arkansas

Ryan Tannehill is the next quarterback everyone wants to be better than he actually is. Time for a reality check because he’s not a first round pick.

It’s completely undestandable why he became a really intriguing prospect coming into the season – all he did last year was win games. His only defeat came against powerhouse LSU in the Cotton Bowl – the victories against Landry Jones and Oklahoma, Robert Griffin III and Baylor, plus four more wins against Nebraska, Texas Tech, Texas and Kansas. He had 13 touchdowns and just six interceptions. Overall it was an impressive picture and rightly people wanted to see more from a receiver convert who suddenly looked like he had a full-time future at quarterback.

Against Oklahoma State he had a decent start before a poor second half with three turnovers in a choke job defeat. The game against Arkansas had a similar outcome, but the general performance from Tannehill in my eyes was poor.

He runs a very basic offense for starters. There’s a lot of extreme-spread concepts and his passes are often one read throws into the flats, he has run option a lot of the time and he’s not making more than one read before resorting to the checkdown. He has flashed in the last two weeks 3-4 throws that are very impressive and that’s where the potential lies. On Saturday he made a picture perfect throw on a wheel route, dissecting two defensive backs to fit it into a really tight window for Ryan Swope. You sit up and take notice. The next throw? A lofted pass up for grabs which is easily intercepted having made one read (Jeff Fuller) and basically just thrown it in his general direction. That’s not good enough.

In the second half Texas A&M looked lost on offense. They couldn’t run the ball with ease like they were earlier and yet they never really turned to their quarterback to open it up. They had a chance to win it at the death with a final drive. The result? Two inaccurate check downs to Swope, a QB scramble for eight yards and a failed fourth down run. Game over.

Tannehill’s final stat line was 25-35 passing, 247 yards and no touchdowns with the single pick. That’s now a 6-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio for the season.

Even after the game I noticed several high profile pundits who have promoted Tannehill backing him up. You can only talk about athleticism for so long and seemingly a lack of starts is being used to justify mistakes. I look at it a different way. Unless you’re going to make up for a lack of starts by throwing the guy in too early in the NFL – how is he going to overcome that issue if it’s still on the table by the end of the college season?

For me Tannehill is a far less technically gifted and polished version of Jake Locker. People argued strongly to suggest Locker deserved a grade outside of round one, so why is the opposite happening for Tannehill? They are both athletic guys who are prone to mistakes, don’t go through progressions particularly well and force throws. Every now and again though, you see the pro-level pass. Locker was better out of the pocket while Tannehill is marginally more comfortable dropping back to pass (he also plays behind a better offensive line with better receivers) but overall I think it’s a fair comparison. While Locker had extreme physical potential and was a superior NFL prospect, I think there are similar issues between the two.

I can understand why Locker went in the top ten – I put him that high in every single mock draft I compiled from December onwards. I can’t give Tannehill the same level of support in that instance because overall he has a much lower ceiling. My grade for Locker was round two as it happens – my grade for Tannehill is round 3-4. I’m not so risk averse to avoid potential if it’s in the extreme. The Seahawks need a quarterback and they need to be aggressive finding one for the long haul. Even so, I wouldn’t want to be tied to Ryan Tannehill as ‘the guy’ for my regime. He’s a project, he needs to work on a lot of areas in his game and while there is some athletic potential – right now he’s an absolute mile away from anything but slight promise.

And it has to be said – if Tannehill had replaced Jerrod Johnson last year with a 6-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio, losing two deflating games to Oklahoma State and Arkansas… would he be riding the crest of a hype wave right now? He has some potential, but as I said previously he remains too much of a project for me to consider building a front offices reputation on.

All of this just reaffirms my suspicion that this isn’t a unique group of quarterbacks. At this stage I can only give Luck and Barkley first round grades. Tannehill, Landry Jones and Austin Davis are the three players I have in the second tier – I much prefer Davis personally but I think someone will overpay for Jones or Tannehill. The Seahawks would be better served aggressively pursuing the top two rather than settling for anything else at the position.

Two Tigers make an impression

Brandon Thompson and Andre Branch are two Clemson defensive lineman who I regularly get asked about. JMPasq has put together tape on both from the weekend’s impressive victory over Virginia Tech (see videos below).

They are two players that are tough to work out. Thompson, for example, has flashed a few performances like this during the last couple of seasons. He’s got a great bull rush, it’s really come along over the last 12 months and you can see in the video how often he drove back the interior Virginia Tech lineman to create disruption up the middle. His real value comes against the run – he’s quick off the snap and has great upper body power to jolt back lineman and fill running lanes. You almost expect him to be bigger than the listed 6-2 305lbs because he plays with the attitude of a bigger NT.

Mobility is good, he moves around well for his size. He’s got a relentless approach and has a motor that never stops despite the fact he plays the bulk of the rotation at Clemson. However, I keep coming back to the fact he has just three career sacks in four years. Last season he had Da’Quan Bowers soaking up blockers and still only registered a single sack. This year, Branch is providing the edge attention and he’s had two games with 0.5 sacks only.

He’s consistently in the backfield and you want to buy into his play, but why isn’t he getting more production? For starters I think his hand use could be better to disengage, buying maybe that split second to finish a play rather than ‘nearly’ make it every time. You can’t sniff at a player who looks that disruptive though and while he may not reach the dizzy heights of former elite defensive tackles, he looks like a solid R2 prospect who could really promote his stock with a blast of production over the rest of the season.

This was the best game I’ve seen Andre Branch have and it’s not close. He’s always left me underwhelmed in the past, a side issue to superior players on the Clemson line. Against Virginia Tech he had three sacks and flashed balance comparable to the much lighter Bruce Irvin – rounding edges with a speed rush at almost an impossible angle to avoid the offensive tackle and get to the QB. That was impressive, because previously he’s looked a bit sluggish off the snap and he’s generally not an explosive pass rusher.

He’s not a one-trick player who relies on speed – which is a big positive. However, I’d like to see a better inside move. The other thing that stood out to me in this game was the way Branch coped against the run, driving blockers and preventing the edge being set. For a guy at 6-4 and 260lbs that was impressive strength and it shows that he has some LEO potential playing in a four man front for Seattle. His disengaging skills are above average in general and he plays with patience and control.

Branch is someone to keep an eye on for the rest of the year and if the Seahawks want some youth at the defensive end/LEO position, he could be a possibility in rounds 2-3.

Dwight Jones is a first round pick

I’ve been promoting Dwight Jones a lot and so far in 2011, he’s justified the attention. This is a player that has battled issues off the field, a lack of consistency and a general difficult situation at North Carolina with suspensions galore and mayhem behind the scenes. All the while Jones has been this raw talent, ready to excel and stamp his authority on the ACC and maybe one day the NFL.

It’s finally happening.

He could very well be the best senior prospect in his class. He may well be the best overall receiver too – ahead of Alshon Jeffery, Justin Blackmon, Jeff Fulller, Michael Floyd, Mohamed Sanu and any other name you want to throw out there. Jones has the complete physical package you want in a NFL receiver – size, hands, speed. He consistently finds ways to get open, something you just can’t teach and his ability to create separation against good corners in the ACC is a major plus point. He’s a deep threat but also has the acceleration from a standing start to punish teams on shorter routes.

Yet the thing that really stands out for me is the way Jones reacts and adjusts to the football so naturally. He’ll bail out your quarterback if he’s a fraction off target, he’ll make difficult catches look easy. His route running could use some polish, but we can’t expect a plethora of receiver prospects to be AJ Green in that department – it’s just part of the learning process.

Taking everything into consideration I truly believe he best fits the pure #1 WR role you want from a first round pick better than anyone else eligible for 2012. Consistency has been an issue in the past as we’ve mentioned, but not this season. In five games he has 514 yards and six touchdowns from 33 receptions. That’s more than Justin Blackmon (38 catches, 450 yards, four touchdowns) – the consensus pre-season favorite to once again win the Biletnikoff this year.

The tape above – courtesy of JMPasq – shows his performance against UNC  this year and although it’s only a teaser, I’d highlight the play he makes at the 0:35 mark. Pure speed, ability to accelerate quickly with YAC to boot. Look how quickly he gets up field after beating the first linebacker, that’s incredible pace for a man listed at 6-4 and 225lbs. There’s absolutely no doubt in my mind that he deserves a high first round grade and has the potential to become a real force in the NFL. Forget Jeffery and Blackmon, this is a guy to watch with real ability to be an early pick. His stock will grow if he continues to play at a high level.

If you want to see evidence of downfield seperation and to further understand why I’m spending so much time pushing this guy, check out the video below of his performance against Florida State last season – courtesy of Aaron Aloysius:

First round projections: October 2nd

UNC receiver Dwight Jones is a first round talent and may be the #1 receiver for 2012

We’re at week five of the college football season and I wanted to note the players I’ve seen that I feel are deserving of first round grades. It’s not a big list and it’s why I won’t compile a mock draft until closer to the new year. So far there are twelve players on the list. The first four guys (Luck, Barkley, Kalil and Richardson) are the only players I believe are worthy of top-five grades at this point.

*Note* – please remember that it’s still early. I’ll never make definite judgements based on 1-2 games and in some cases I just haven’t had the opportunity to watch certain teams/prospects. I’ll come back to this list in a month to see how things have changed.

The twelve prospects with first round grades as of October 2nd

Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford)
Decorated first round prospect who will be the #1 overall pick next April.

Matt Barkley (QB, USC)
The only other 2012 eligible quarterback who warrants a first round grade.

Matt Kalil (OT, USC)
Hugely talented in pass protection and that will secure a top grade, but needs to improve his run blocking.

Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama)
Now a potential top-five pick considering the new rookie pay scale. Richardson is just brilliant.

Dwight Jones (WR, North Carolina)
The complete package at wide receiver, Jones is now showing consistency and production.

Zach Brown (LB, North Carolina)
Always involved and jumps off the screen, the defensive MVP at UNC.

Peter Konz (C, Wisconsin)
Excellent interior line prospect who should be able to start quickly. Will he declare? Debatable.

Vontaze Burfict (LB, Arizona State)
Will bring attitude, talent and playmaking qualities to the NFL.

Jonathan Martin (OT, Stanford)
An athletic lineman that teams will covet due to the importance of blind-side blocking.

Mohamed Sanu (WR, Rutgers)
Sanu’s catching, running and blocking are all excellent – a unique physical talent.

Alshon Jeffery (WR, South Carolina)
Big possession receiver who will make a very good #2 at the next level.

Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State)
At his best comparable to Greg Jennings & Roddy White, but there are too many little mistakes.

There are also several prospects I’ve watched either in 2010 or 2011 that have created some impression. I want to note those players here as having the potential to be among the first round group by next month. Again, these are just a selection of names and are not all-inclusive or definitive. Indeed these players may never reach first round consideration, but they’re some of the players I wanted to highlight.

Players who have created an impression without solidifying first round grades

TJ McDonald (S, USC)
Good against the run but also above average in coverage – the best safety prospect for 2012.

Nick Perry (DE, USC)
Perry is now playing at 100% and he’s getting to the quarterback. Technique matches speed.

Kheeston Randall (DT, Texas)
He moves well and he’s tough to shift. Randall gets into the backfield but needs to learn to finish.

Melvin Ingram (DE, South Carolina)
Initially a rotational cog, but has worked into a greater role. I started the year thinking he’d be a mid/late rounder, but he just keeps making huge plays.

Greg Reid (CB, Florida State)
Reid is physical despite a lack of ideal size and he has a future at the next level.

Brandon Thompson (DT, Clemson)
Production not good enough so far considering the supporting cast and a year with Da’Quan Bowers, but there is something there.

Janoris Jenkins (CB, North Alabama)
Top-10 elite potential held back by off-field issues. AJ Green, Julio Jones and Alshon Jeffery had their worst games against Jenkins in 2010.

Marquis Spruill (OLB, Syracuse)
Electric linebacker prospect who will play three downs in the NFL.

Jayron Hosley (CB, Virginia Tech)
Hosley gets burned from time to time for being too aggressive, but he’s also a huge playmaker with 12 picks in the last year.

Jared Crick (DE, Nebraska)
At times Crick looks like a top-15 pick, but he also looks irrelevant at times too.

Kendall Wright (WR, Baylor)
Wright has enjoyed an explosive start to the season and despite lacking great size he’s becoming hard to ignore.

Logan Harrell (DT, Fresno State)
Under rated three-technique prospect who gets to the quarterback. I really like this guy.

Quinton Coples (DE, North Carolina)
Pure physical potential but doesn’t make the most of it.

Austin Davis (QB, Southern Miss)
Davis is an under rated quarterback prospect who deserves greater attention.

Stephen Lee (WR, Georgia Tech)
Lee is a big and fast receiver who flashes moments of quality.

Jeff Fuller (WR, Texas A&M)
The only player who gave Patrick Peterson a hard time last year, but Fuller hasn’t exploded in 2011.

Vinny Curry (DE, Marshall)
Curry is a consistent pass rusher who could lead the nation in sacks this year. LEO potential.

Alameda Ta’amu (DT, Washington)
Nose tackle prospect who is not in Phil Taylor’s class but he still has high first round potential.

Riley Reiff (OT, Iowa)
Reiff looked good blocking against Brandon Lindsey and Pittsburgh.

Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU)
So far it’s hard to ignore the terrific performances of this talented LSU corner in 2011.

Finally I wanted to note the five players who are generally given very high grades but I feel are over rated. That’s not to say that players like Quinton Coples and Landry Jones won’t be first round picks – maybe even early picks – but personally I wouldn’t advocate taking them as high as some have projected.

The top-five over rated prospects

Landry Jones (QB, Oklahoma)
A product of the Oklahoma offensive scheme, Jones hasn’t flashed top-end pro-potential in my view.

Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama)
Tall but should be much more physical than he is. A bit static, lacks fluidity and generally I haven’t been that impressed with Kirkpatrick.

Donte Paige-Moss (DE, North Carolina)
How is this guy graded in the first round by people who should know better? For the record, it’s one sack this year. One.

Jerel Worthy (DT, Michigan State)
Not great as a pass rusher or run stuffer and Worthy is often taken out for third downs.

Quinton Coples (North Carolina)
Coples is all about physical potential, but too often he’s annonymous.

Special mention: Ryan Tannehill (QB, Texas A&M) and Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor)– two project quarterbacks at the next level that people appear desperate to promote above their means seemingly to justify premature and inaccurate claims that 2012 presents a rare class of QB’s. Tannehill is much more polished than Griffin III, but he’s still relatively inexperienced and learning the position. He stares down receivers and he’s not used to going through progressions. There’s a high degree of athletic potential and his technique is better than you’d expect, but he’s strictly a project in my mind. Griffin’s numbers are sensational this season, but he’s not a polished passer and his footwork needs a complete re-work. Team’s will show interest earlier than they should based on athleticism and leadership, but he’s a long term developmental project and I struggle to imagine Griffin III playing in the NFL.

Saturday in review

Robert Griffin III and Baylor lost their first game of the season falling 36-35 to Kansas State. Griffin had the ball with three minutes to go but didn’t manage a first down, so no TCU-type heroics this weekend. With the Horned Frogs losing at home to SMU today, that big performance is a bit of a distant memory. Despite huge progress as a passer, Griffin is still a major project with terrible footwork and throwing mechanics – plus he has very little experience in anything like a cultured passing offense. I read one high profile pundit today suggesting Griffin could challenge for the top-ten, which is a ludicrous suggestion. He had five more touchdowns today and 343 yards but threw his first interception of the year. Great leader, better athlete – but a big time project and that limits his stock.

Dwight Jones at UNC had another big day, scoring two touchdowns in a six-catch, 93-yard performance in a 34-20 win over ECU. That’s 514 yards and six touchdowns in five games so far for a player who has found a level of consistency and is now making the most of a complete package of skills. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that Jones is worth a first round pick, he may be the best receiver in this class.

South Carolina suffered a 16-13 defeat to Auburn thanks to a quarterback mess that is undermining realistic ambitions of a SEC Championship. Stephen Garcia does not look anything like the quarterback of last season, but the coaches clearly had no confidence in him to start the year after an off-season of drama. It’s hurt players like Alshon Jeffery, who at least hit back with a touchdown and five catches for 86 yards against the Tigers. It was far from a faultless performance from the wide out however, who is over rated as a top-ten pick but warrants a general first round grade.

Boise State got revenge over the post-Colin Kaepernick Nevada, but it wasn’t a convincing display. Quarterback Kellen Moore only passed for 142 yards from 33 attempts – an average of 4.3 yards per throw. He also had two interceptions and completed just 19-33 passing. Had Kaepernick been playing today for the Wolfpack, it could easily have been a different story. My take on Moore has been clear from two seasons ago – excellent, storied college quarterback with a future somewhere within the game – but he only warrants an UDFA grade as a NFL prospect.

Ryan Tannehill supposedly had a better day than perhaps the numbers suggest (zero touchdowns, one interception and 247 yards) but it doesn’t hide the fact that for the second week in a row Texas A&M suffered a second half meltdown and threw away a 35-17 advantage at half time to lose 42-38 to Arkansas. Tannehill’s ability to lead his team to victory was a big selling point coming into this season despite limited starts, but he’s already lost to two legitimate opponents now. I’ve maintained a sceptical eye on Tannehill – he’s good given his lack of time on the field at quarterback, but the hype machine has gone into over drive and needs to cool down. I will have tape for this game on Wednesday.

Mohamed Sanu had another productive day for Rutgers, notching seven catches for 65 yards and a score as Rutgers defeated Syracuse in overtime 16-13. He now has 428 passing yards in four games and five touchdowns. He’s a unique prospect at 6-2 and 215lbs because I’d happily give him some snaps at running back, put him in the slot and still use him as an orthodox X or Y. A playmaker who can do just about any role on offense will carry some value to teams in round one, especially with this level of physical talent and now – production.

Matt Barkley broke Carson Palmer’s USC record for most passing yards in a single game in a 48-41 win over Arizona. The Trojans quarterback was back on form after last week’s defeat at ASU, scoring five total touchdowns and making just one interception to go with the 468 yards through the air. Robert Woods was again the main benefactor with 14 catches for an incredible 255 yards and two touchdowns. Barkley will be a top pick if he declares for the 2012 draft, Woods will almost certainly be a top pick in 2013. He has 55 catches this season in just five games with six touchdowns. A star in the making, both at USC and eventually in the NFL.

Geno Smith went 18-30 for 238 yards and three scores in a big win for West Virginia – 55-10 against Bowling Green. Michigan State didn’t have things half as easy against Ohio State, but sneaked trough 10-7 in a game that probably looked as bad as it sounds. Kirk Cousins again was far from spectacular, going 20-32 for 250 yards, one touchdown and a pick.

I’ll have access to game tape tomorrow – so expect some thoughts from Alabama/Florida and Auburn/South Carolina.

Newer posts »

© 2024 Seahawks Draft Blog

Theme by Anders NorenUp ↑