Month: March 2015 (Page 2 of 4)

What’s going on with Stefen Wisniewski?

Stefen Wisniewski is still without a contract

It’s over a week since it was revealed Stefen Wisniewski was visiting with the Seahawks. Six days ago Pete Carroll called him a “legitimate starter in the league” and confirmed his interest in doing a deal.

Since then… silence.

There’s no news on any further visits taken by Wisniewski. He was linked to the Bears and Buccs. The Rams reportedly showed some interest in the early stages of free agency. Yet nothing has been reported since he visited Seattle.

He’s every NFL fans last remaining free agency hope. He’s a well known player and an offensive lineman. He’s also young. If you search for his name on Twitter you’ll see endless Tweets from fans pleading with their team to make a move. Yet curiously there’s nothing happening. We’re well beyond even the second phase of free agency now. Dwayne Bowe getting a gig is actually news. That’s where we’re at.

Carroll did admit it wouldn’t be a quick fix:

“It will be some time before this gets worked out. It’s recruiting and we’re battling. He’s a really solid football player and a smart kid. We’ll see where it goes.”

It’d be easier to understand the situation if we knew he was taking other visits. For all we know he might be. The silence instead suggests a position of ‘limbo’ for a player expected to generate a lot of interest.

So what’s going on?

He could be pricing himself out of a move. Rodney Hudson is getting $8.9m APY to replace Wisniewski in Oakland. His cap hit is $13m this year. He almost certainly expects to get a lower salary — but if teams are offering the league average for a center (around $3-4m) and he wants closer to $5-7m, that could be a stumbling block.

He also might not be as accomplished as many people think. Good offensive linemen usually get snapped up especially when they’re in their mid-20’s. Not only did Oakland decide to move on from Wisniewski, they spent major money to replace him. They’ve seemingly shown no interest in re-signing him to play guard. His market might not be any better than Dan Connolly’s (another player Seattle has show interest in). Teams have stayed away from other big names too — B.J. Raji, Michael Crabtree, Brandon Spikes.

Former NFL GM Bill Polian is running a free-agency tracker for ESPN. He gave Wisniewski a ‘C’ grade as he hit the open market — the same as mediocre receiver Dane Sanzenbacher, former Seahawks return man Leon Washington and plodding ex-Dolphins running back Daniel Thomas. Polian’s view could be representative of those in the league — he’s just an average player worthy of a very average salary.

Even Carroll’s language (“solid”, “smart”) is coach code for, “yeah he’s not bad”. The Seahawks have two big holes to fill on the offensive line and Wisniewski would fill one of them while offering a veteran presence. Are the Seahawks willing to make a long term financial commitment, however? And they might want him to come in and compete with Patrick Lewis and possibly a rookie.

I suspect we’re getting closer to a conclusion on this topic. Maybe we’ll hear something in the next few days? Can we read into Seattle’s sudden interest in Connolly or their talks with other free agents like Anthony Spencer, Ahtyba Rubin (signing today, according to Ian Rapoport) and Chris Canty (re-signed with the Ravens)? They don’t have the cap space to make multiple moves. It could be Wisniewski or a couple of low salaried defensive line additions instead.

Neither Rubin or Spencer are players to get particularly excited about but the D-line does require depth. The general strength of the center class could also move the Seahawks towards drafting a rookie and letting the competition play out between said player and Patrick Lewis.

Adding Wisniewski will seem like a smart move because he’d be a perceived immediate starter with experience at a good age. Yet there are several prospects in this draft class with the potential to be superior. I’ve spent a bit of time looking at the position since Max Unger was traded to the Saints. Here’s a few brief early thoughts:

Ali Marpet (Hobart)
Prototype size for the center position and just looks made for the role. It’s hard to judge him in terms of small-school tape at left tackle but you can’t help but be impressed with his combination of size and athleticism. Tony Pauline spoke very highly of him in yesterday’s podcast (see below).

B.J. Finney (Kansas State)
He has the wrestling background Tom Cable loves. He’s a very solid blocker working in a phone booth but doesn’t have great mobility or second level awareness. He is a tough, physical player with NFL size and a terrific initial punch. Nothing flashy but he’ll be an average or slightly above average starter at the next level.

Hroniss Grasu (Oregon)
He’s a battler with the light feet to pull across the line and deliver big-play blocks in the running game. You don’t see Finney’s power at the point of attack but he’s technically sound and more athletic. He’s considered a big-time leader and made for the ZBS. He might have to add a bit of extra weight to play center at the next level but there’s room to grow. Most importantly there’s real evidence he can get to the next level.

Shaq Mason (Georgia Tech)
I’ve only watched one piece of footage but he looks like a dynamo in the run game, driving blockers with ease and winning with consistent leverage. He looks very powerful and strong. It’s hard to judge an interior lineman playing in the triple-option — so often they’re incidental to the play call. He ran a sub-5.0 at his pro-day. If he’s athletic and powerful, he’s one to monitor.

Max Garcia (Florida)
He’s a tackle convert (Seattle seems to like that) and a big character guy. He stood out during the Senior Bowl drills — battling a visibly tiring Danny Shelton and holding his own. On tape he can be hit and miss but he does show a mean streak and some power. You see good hand placement and leverage. Is he mobile enough for the ZBS? Debatable.

I’m yet to watch Boston College’s Andy Gallik and there are potential tackle/guard converts littered throughout this class. For example, athletic tackle Mitch Morse is 6-5 and 305lbs — the exact same measurements as Max Unger. He has short arms (32 and 1/4 inches) so needs to shift inside. However, he benched 35 reps and showed good short-area quickness at the combine (4.50 short shuttle). It’s something to consider.

I discussed the center position, Ali Marpet, Mitch Morse and others with Draft Insider Tony Pauline yesterday. Here’s the podcast if you missed it:

Draft Insider Tony Pauline speaks to Seahawks Draft Blog

This week I had a chance to speak to Draft Insider.net’s Tony Pauline. Recently he’s been providing Pro-Day information for WalterFootball.com — you can keep up to date with everything on the circuit by clicking here.

He’s also a recommended follow on Twitter (@TonyPauline).

You can hear the interview via AudioBoom above. Here’s a brief synopsis of what we discussed:

— Tony thinks the addition of Jimmy Graham will be a positive move for the Seahawks — he’s not quite as complimentary about the move from a New Orleans standpoint.

— The Seahawks are interested in Ty Sambrailo but he hasn’t had a good off-season so far. He was unimpressive at the Senior Bowl and combine. He had a chance to go in the late first round but now could provide “excellent value” in the late second. Tony doesn’t believe he’ll be on the board in the late third round.

— Ali Marpet has done “a tremendous job” over the last few weeks boosting his draft stock. Originally considered a priority UDFA, he could now go in the second or third round. Tony believes he can play either guard spot, right tackle or center. That will appeal to Seattle.

— When asked to name alternative center prospects the Seahawks might target, Tony suggests Oregon’s Hronnis Grasu in the third round, Andy Gallik in the third or fourth round range or Max Garcia as a later round option.

— What about Dorial Green-Beckham? It wouldn’t be a shock if he goes in the first round or the third round. Tony says he “wouldn’t touch him in the top-50 picks”. He expects a rush on receivers in round one and that could impact DGB’s stock. It’s not out of the question he’s still on the board late in round two.

— Kansas State’s Tyler Lockett could be a second round option for the Seahawks (something we’ve discussed a lot, along with Sambrailo). He’s a productive kick returner and as Tony explains, he’d offer a needed downfield threat to the offense.

— Zach Hodges has not left a positive impression on teams this off-season. Tony says he’s come across as “aloof” and questions have been asked about his love for the game.

The Michael Bennett & Greg Hardy rumor mill

Is Michael Bennett really unhappy with the Seahawks?

Well, that was interesting.

The day started with fresh reports suggesting the Seahawks would meet with Greg Hardy (a report later disputed by local media sources). This came amid news that another pass rusher — Anthony Spencer — was meeting with the team today.

Then this bombshell:

The Seahawks can ill-afford to lose Michael Bennett. The Super Bowl was a great example of just how vital he is. He was unblockable. Bennett’s not a sack artist but he’s still an impact player. The type you certainly don’t give away.

Short of the Falcons coughing up the #8 pick, surely there isn’t a deal that would interest the Seahawks? Firstly, you’d need to be able to replace Bennett. You’re not going to find a replacement even if you acquire the tenth pick in the second round (owned by Atlanta). The top free agents are already off the market. It’s the worst possible time to try and force a trade (if that is what Bennett is trying to do).

Secondly, it would set an awful precedent. The Seahawks battled conflict with Marshawn Lynch for two years to avoid a similar situation. They don’t want to give out contract extensions one or two years into a deal. They can’t do it. Not unless they want endless negotiations with Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor and others. If you deal Bennett you’re basically inviting trouble in the future.

So basically he’s stuck in Seattle with the contract he signed a year ago. And that should be the end of that, unless the Falcons want to spend the #8 pick on a player who turns 30 this year. Let’s assume they don’t.

So what’s going on?

It’s been pointed out on Twitter that Bennett and Hardy share an agent (Drew Rosenhaus). Some have suggested it’s all part of a clever ploy to drive up the price of both players. Essentially, the only way the Seahawks would surely consider dealing Bennett is if they could land a replacement of similar quality on the open market. For all the off-field concern surrounding Hardy, nobody can deny he’s a top-tier pass rusher.

Even if you believe this fanciful theory, it seems really convoluted. Is an agent really going to instigate a rumor about one of his clients to try and drive a hard bargain for a different player? Leaving a myriad of conjecture and denial along the way?

As the day went on, things seemed to heat up between Hardy and the Dallas Cowboys. Breaking reports claim he’ll take a physical tomorrow morning after dining with team brass this evening. There’s real momentum for a deal suddenly, even though the NFL is yet to judge on a possible suspension for Hardy.

For the Seahawks, it seems like an Anthony Spencer signing is more likely than a Greg Hardy signing right now.

The reporter, Clarence Hill, who initially tweeted about Michael Bennett wanting a trade, stood by his sources during an appearance on ESPN 710.

He claims his source is not Drew Rosenhaus:

It’s all a bit of a mess really.

First and foremost, Bennett needs to clarify his position. If he isn’t seeking a trade, say so. The team claims it hasn’t heard anything. Bennett is the only one who can clear this up.

If he is looking for a move, he’s probably going to be disappointed. He’s contracted until the end of the 2017 season and has zero leverage. He can hold out — but he must know the Seahawks will call that bluff. Even if he sits out the whole year, he’s not going to be any more attractive on the trade market in 2016 approaching his 31st birthday.

He had a chance to cash in a year ago and signed a new contract in Seattle. Really that’s the end of it. Bennett still needs to provide some clarity here. What’s going on?

Tonight I’ve been speaking to Draft Insider.net’s Tony Pauline — one of the best in the business. Expect that interview to be on the blog tomorrow.

Seahawks linked to Greg Hardy & Dorial Green-Beckham

Jason La Canfora believes the Seahawks are showing interest in Greg Hardy

Randy Starks to Cleveland, Greg Hardy to Seattle?

According to Aaron Wilson, Starks signed a two-year, $8m contract with the Browns. It’s a similar deal to the one Terrance Knighton agreed in Washington (albeit for an extra year).

The Seahawks are only likely to add another player if it provides a significant upgrade or fills a key need. The interest in Stefen Wisniewski makes sense because he would slot in at left guard or center. At defensive tackle, you’d have to be adding a vital piece to the rotation. Clearly a 31-year-old Starks wasn’t seen in that light. He’d also cost a little bit more than Tony McDaniel and slightly less than Brandon Mebane. Swapping one for the other wasn’t really necessary unless you had genuine fears over Mebane’s health.

The DT market started to droop when Knighton signed his contract — but it never dipped quite low enough for Seattle to seriously get involved. They can still probably afford to spend $3-4m on Wisniewski. With around $15.5m in cap space remaining (per Spotrac), they’d need to shave a salary or two (Mebane?) and perhaps delay extending J.R. Sweezy’s contract until next year. Remember, they’ll need around $5m for the practice squad, injured reserve and the upper-tier rookies. They’ll also need around $7-8m if they extend Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner’s contracts in 2015.

Given how tight the cap is, Jason La Canfora’s suggestion that Seattle could be in the running to sign Greg Hardy is very interesting. La Canfora and others are quick to stress nothing is imminent. Peter King believes there’s a good chance Hardy will receive a six-game suspension to start the season. It’s unlikely he’ll be signed to a contract before the NFL makes a decision.

How can the Seahawks afford him? If he does miss almost half the season, he’ll be cheap and almost certainly playing on a one-year ‘prove it’ contract. Seattle offers an opportunity for Hardy to max-out his value playing for a contender. We’ve seen the benefit of having ‘Seahawks’ on your résumé during the current free agency market. It could be a marriage of convenience for both parties. Seattle gets a highly controversial yet productive pass rusher. Hardy gets a shot at redemption playing for a winner.

The Dallas Cowboys have also been linked with interest today. They present a similar opportunity. You can play for a contender, ‘America’s Team’. You won’t have the same supporting cast but you also have a chance to shine as a focal point of the defense.

There will be criticism aimed at any team employing Hardy. It won’t sit well with some fans. Per the Charlotte Observer, here’s why:

A district judge in Mecklenburg County found Hardy guilty in July of assaulting and threatening to kill ex-girlfriend Nicole Holder during an early-morning altercation at Hardy’s uptown condo last May.

Hardy immediately appealed the decision and was granted a jury trial, which was scheduled to begin Feb. 9.

The morning of the trial, however, prosecutors told the judge they were dropping the charges because multiple attempts to find Holder – including setting up surveillance at her new residence – were unsuccessful.

District attorney Andrew Murray said Hardy had reached a settlement with Holder for an undisclosed amount to settle any civil claims.

Hardy is without doubt one of the best pass rushers in the NFL. He’s also the kind of player you’d usually run a mile from.

If the Seahawks do pursue this, it’d have to be cheap with strings attached. They’d need assurances from Hardy that he’s a changed man. They’d need to believe any promises were sincere.

Even then they’d be taking a gamble. Not on talent — Hardy has that in spades. It’s the situation. The ugliness that led to him missing almost the entire 2014 season and now leaves him currently unemployed. It’d be a big call.

Meanwhile it appears Chris Canty will visit with the Seahawks on Thursday. He’s 6-7 and 317lbs and most recently played for the Ravens. He turns 33 this year.

Seahawks linked to Dorial Green-Beckham

Yahoo’s Charles Robinson Tweeted today that Seattle was “digging” into DGB prior to trading the #31 pick to New Orleans. He goes on to suggest the Seahawks could be interested if he falls to #63. Dane Brugler of NFL Draft Scout joined in, saying he’d “heard similar”.

Chris Mortensen knew the Seahawks were going to draft Russell Wilson in 2012 — he famously admitted he’d told Wilson prior to the event. For that reason I’m loathe to put the mockers on this. After all, we know the Seahawks were determined to add a big, dynamic receiver or tight end. They went after Julius Thomas before completing a trade for Jimmy Graham. Thomas agreed terms with the Jags and if the Saints keep Graham — DGB is one of the few bigger pass-catchers they could’ve targeted in the 2015 draft.

Images also appeared to show one of the Seahawks coaches running Green-Beckham through drills at his pro-day. It could all be part of an elaborate ploy. An enormous red herring. Or maybe there’s something in it?

Green-Beckham is the hardest prospect to work out in this draft. We’ve talked enough about the off-field concerns — they are legit. You look at his 4.49 speed at 6-5/237lbs and wonder how fast he’d run at 225lbs (a better playing weight). You then take into account he only has nine inch hands and 32.5 inch arms despite the height. He also recorded average measurements in the vertical (33.5 inches) and broad jump (9’11”).

He’s the biggest, fastest, most intriguing T-Rex-who-can’t-jump in the draft.

In won’t be a shock if he goes in the top-15. It won’t be a surprise either if he lasts deep into the second round — or later. In my latest mock draft I had him going to the Panthers with the #57 pick.

You’d have to consider him at #63 if he was there. Of course you would. The risk factor is reduced as a near third-rounder with a salary to match. There’d be much less pressure in year one following the addition of Jimmy Graham. You’d also wonder — why have some teams passed on him twice so that he’s even available at #63?

Adding to the debate is the now critical offensive line need. If Wisniewski doesn’t sign for the Seahawks, they’ll need to draft one starter for sure. It’ll be two if they don’t genuinely see Patrick Lewis as the man to replace Max Unger. It’s a deep draft for O-linemen but you run the risk of missing out on the guys you want when you’re waiting until the end of each round to pick.

For some, getting a player with DGB’s potential at the end of round two would be seen as a dream scenario. That’ll only be the case if they’re still able to address pressing needs at center and guard. While it’s a good draft for athletic O-liners — it’s also a really deep draft for wide receivers.

With Graham on board a more likely target might be Tyler Lockett — a player high in character who set 17 school records at Kansas State according to Sharon Katz. He also ranked fourth in the Big 12 in YAC and led all receivers on passes thrown 15 yards or longer (21 receptions). He’d be an immediate contributor on kick off and punt returns. He was one of the top performers at the Senior Bowl.

The need for a bigger receiver is negated somewhat following the Graham trade. Lockett has the same thick lower body, height and speed of Golden Tate. He’s not as big or as sturdy as Tate at 185lbs — but he’s highly competitive. He high points the ball downfield, consistently finds ways to get open and is one of those players who just ‘jumps off the screen’. The type Seattle usually covets.

Like Dorial Green-Beckham, however, you might only get one shot at Lockett. He probably won’t be there in round three — if he makes it to #63 at all.

A different angle on the value of the Jimmy Graham trade

Consider this scenario. The Seahawks miss out on Julius Thomas and the New Orleans Saints aren’t willing to trade Jimmy Graham. Jordan Cameron signs for the Dolphins. You’re stuck at #31 trying to find a dynamic receiver or tight end for your offense.

You’ve scouted the players, you’ve studied who’s likely to be available. Nobody really fits the bill. The only chance you’ve got to fill this hole is to trade up. Go after one of the big three — Amari Cooper, Kevin White or Devante Parker. In yesterday’s two-round mock draft they were all off the board by pick #14. To move up from #31, you might have to try and get into the top ten. A jump of 21 picks.

It’s not such an unrealistic quandary. The Seahawks did miss out on Julius Thomas. There are serious concerns about Jordan Cameron’s health. Without the Graham deal, you face the prospect of forcing a receiver pick at #31 or trying to move up.

They had to address this need.

To move from #9 to #4 last year, Buffalo gave up a future first and fourth rounder. That was just to move up five spots. Imagine the price tag to jump more than twenty places? Especially in a draft with 15-18 prospects with first round grades.

At the very least you’d be looking at a Julio Jones type deal. In 2011 Atlanta moved from #27 to #6, giving up their second and fourth rounder plus a first and fourth rounder in 2012. The total cost for Jones? Two first rounders, a second rounder and a fourth rounder.

To add Kevin White, for example, that’s the bare minimum Seattle would have to spend. All for a player with one season of solid college production. A rookie — trying to make his name and get to the all important second contract.

The Seahawks gave up much less for a proven commodity. One pick for one player. In this instance the value of a perceived top-ten rookie is much greater than the value of a 28-year-old elite player. It doesn’t really seem right.

It’s not even worth considering the loss of Max Unger as part of this deal. The Saints gave the Seahawks a fourth rounder — this is essentially Unger for a fourth and Graham for a first. You might argue Unger is worth more than a fourth rounder — the Seahawks still swapped their first pick for one of the top-two X-factor tight ends in the league.

If this trade flops like the Percy Harvin deal, what has it cost you? A late first rounder — essentially a second round prospect in this class. The Graham trade, unlike the Harvin deal, doesn’t even include any future compensation in next years draft. It’s all in the here and now. If it’s a disaster, there are no lasting repercussions.

If Sammy Watkins flops, it costs the Bills three picks including two first rounders. If the Seahawks wanted to go all-in on Cooper, White or Parker — it would’ve cost them at least two first rounders, a second rounder and an extra pick or two.

When you consider it in these terms, how can you not describe the deal as a bargain? Obviously none of the players drafted in the late first will possess Graham’s unique physical talent or production. They’ll be younger. That’s it.

Fans love to see first round picks spent on rookies. That’s just the way it is. Had the Seahawks acquired Graham on his current contract as a free agent, it’d receive universal approval. The fact they’ve spent a first rounder suddenly adds a layer of doubt or suspicion for some. It shouldn’t. Every early pick is some kind of gamble. Even the perceived ‘safe’ prospects bust — look at Aaron Curry. Taking a chance on Graham is far less risky than taking a chance on the fourth, fifth or sixth rookie receiver in the 2015 draft. It doesn’t mean it’ll work out, but it’s much less of a gamble.

Seattle’s biggest need this off-season was an X-factor in the passing game. They’ve added one of the NFL’s biggest (literally) playmakers for the price of one solitary pick. It would’ve cost so much more to trade up for an unproven equivalent in the draft. That’s pretty remarkable when you think about it.

Free agency thoughts

We’re well into the second phase now. We’re still seeing some sizable contracts (eg Ron Parker’s $30m extension with Kansas City) but things are slowing down. This is when you usually find the value. We’ve already seen Washington pick up Terrance Knighton on a bargain $4m one-year contract.

There are plenty of defensive tackles facing a similar situation. Vince Wilfork, Randy Starks, B.J. Raji, Kevin Williams, Letroy Guion and Red Bryant could be in for a wait. There are less options at defensive end — Greg Hardy will eventually get a deal. Michael Johnson will sign with Cincinnati or Minnesota. The next best available is Dwight Freeney.

The most appealing option for the Seahawks could be Randy Starks, as we’ve discussed previously.

There are lots of options at corner — Tramon Williams for example remains unsigned. It’s perhaps unlikely the Seahawks would consider another veteran here after adding Cary Williams and Will Blackmon.

Greg Jennings was cut today by Minnesota, adding to the options at receiver. It just seems like an unnecessary expense to add an ageing wide out to the current group. Is that what Seattle needs? Especially with the recent addition of Graham and a talent-rich draft at the position.

Really it comes down to the offensive line. It seems like they want to add a veteran, that’s why they met with Shelley Smith (signed with the Broncos) and Stefen Wisniewski. It’ll have to fit into the limited price bracket. The Seahawks chose not to convert Jimmy Graham’s bonus before the deadline (a move that would’ve saved $3.3m in 2015). They could still approach Brandon Mebane to take a pay cut. They have limited funds to spend (possibly $3-5m only) because they need to earmark money for expected contract extensions for Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner.

Wisniewski can’t expect to earn as much as Rodney Hudson ($8m) — not at this stage of free agency. He’ll likely take other visits. It’s whether another team steps up to the plate offering a better opportunity (difficult) or more money (not so difficult). If he doesn’t sign they move on — much like they did with Jared Allen and Henry Melton a year ago. If they don’t add a veteran, however, it’ll make for a very youthful offensive line in 2015 — including possibly two rookie starters and a second year right tackle (Justin Britt).

For that reason a veteran addition seems likely but not guaranteed. It’s all down to value. Last year Allen and Melton got the tempting offers. We’ll see what happens with Wisniewski.

Two-round mock draft: Free agency edition

Future Cleveland Browns quarterback?

#1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Jameis Winston (QB, Florida State)
Winston reportedly met with Roger Goodell last week. Not so discretely, it seems all parties are preparing to introduce him as the #1 pick.

#2 **TRADE** Cleveland Browns — Marcus Mariota (QB, Oregon)
The Browns have done absolutely nothing in free agency to lift the spirits of a desperate fan base. It’s clear Manziel is a bust. They need some hope, something to build around. Here they trade the #12, #19 and a future pick in 2016 to the Titans to make Mariota the future.

#3 Jacksonville Jaguars — Dante Fowler Jr (DE, Florida)
They’ve beefed up the interior and have their version of the 5-tech in Jared Odrick. Chris Clemons is their best edge rusher and he’s 34 this year. Fowler is the top of the class here — a genuine playmaker. Gus Bradley will love his energy.

#4 Oakland Raiders — Amari Cooper (WR, Alabama)
Cooper vs White. Cooper gets the nod because he’s a little more adept at getting open in the short game and technically he’s extremely polished as a route runner. He’s the most natural looking receiver to enter the league since A.J. Green.

#5 Washington Redskins — Vic Beasley (DE, Clemson)
They’ve bolstered the interior with a cluster of big bodies (Knighton, Paea, Jean-Francois). Now they need an edge rusher to replace Brian Orakpo. Beasley had an insane combine and has a chance to emulate Von Miller coming into the league.

#6 New York Jets — Kevin White (WR, West Virginia)
With Revis and Cromartie back in New York, they’re set up to run Todd Bowles’ scheme. Remember, he didn’t have a fantastic edge rusher in Arizona either. They have enough D-line talent to succeed. Attention should turn to the offense. Yes they have Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker — but they need more.

#7 Chicago Bears — Randy Gregory (OLB, Nebraska)
Vic Fangio relaunched the San Francisco defense when they drafted Aldon Smith. Gregory has similar upside to Smith without any of the off-field drama. He’s far from the finished product but Fangio is a fantastic coach. They need a proper 3-4 outside backer more than anything.

#8 Atlanta Falcons — Leonard Williams (DE, USC)
In my early mocks I had Williams falling a bit and I’m going back to it. He’s a very accomplished player but what is his best fit at the next level? He is not close to the same type of athlete as J.J. Watt who lasted until pick #11. I don’t see a top-three lock.

#9 New York Giants — Bud Dupree (OLB, Kentucky)
No team has brought in more free agents than the Giants so far. They haven’t really added anything major to the defensive line, however. Dupree could be their answer to Bruce Irvin — playing the WILL and moving down to the LOS to rush the edge. Dupree has the range and athleticism to make it work.

#10 St. Louis Rams — Brandon Scherff (T, Iowa)
Personally I prefer Ereck Flowers. Scherff is more athletic and just looks like the type of guy you’d expect Jeff Fisher to covet. After all the moves in free agency, O-line is the big need for the Rams. This could end up being a lock.

#11 Minnesota Vikings — Trae Waynes (CB, Michigan State)
A superb combine performance has Waynes pushing towards the top ten. This could launch a rush on the position in round one. Minnesota traded for Mike Wallace today, taking away the need to go with Devante Parker here. They need to keep re-building the defense for Mike Zimmer.

#12 Tennessee Titans — Danny Shelton (DT, Washington)
After re-signing Derrick Morgan and adding Brian Orakpo today, the Titans are starting to put together a competent defense. Putting Shelton next to Jurrell Casey just screams Dick Le Beau. Tennessee’s defense will be tough to beat with this double-act leading the way.

#13 New Orleans Saints — Shane Ray (DE, Missouri)
There are many different opinions on Ray’s stock and no real consensus on where he’ll go. That could be the same in several war-rooms too. What is his best fit? Can he play in the 4-3? Can you deal with a lack of true size/length? Eventually he’ll come off the board.

#14 Miami Dolphins — DeVante Parker (WR, Louisville)
They’ve added some pieces to the offense in Kenny Stills and Jordan Cameron. Jarvis Landry had a great rookie campaign. They do lack a true #1 receiver though. If they’re going for it this year, giving Ryan Tannehill as many weapons as possible is a must.

#15 San Francisco 49ers — Arik Armstead (DE, Oregon)
This looks like the early stages of a rebuild. Armstead has incredible size and would be an immediate starter/replacement for Justin Smith. They need to start working on the defense after losing so many key players. It starts up front.

#16 Houston Texans — Eddie Goldman (DT, Florida State)
Brilliant personality and probably FSU’s best player in 2014. He has the size to play the nose, he’s a superb run-defender and he still offers plenty as a pass rusher. Simply a brilliant talent, rich in potential and set for a nice career. Former 5-star recruit.

#17 San Diego Chargers — Melvin Gordon (RB, Wisconsin)
They’re in win-now mode and lost Ryan Mathews to the Eagles. They need to keep adding X-factor players to take the strain away from Philip Rivers. Gordon will be a much coveted player — he’s a playmaker with incredible character and work ethic.

#18 Kansas City Chiefs — D.J. Humphries (T, Florida)
They’ve addressed the need at receiver with Jeremy Maclin and now they can be a bit more flexible here. Eric Fisher has been a flop so far and is better suited at right tackle. Humphries has left tackle-mobility and major upside.

#19 Tennessee Titans — Jalen Collins (CB, LSU)
Collins is long, talented and filled with potential. It’s no exaggeration to say he has the potential to be a leading corner in the NFL. I’d take him ahead of Waynes. This would be a fantastic pick for the Titans.

#20 Philadelphia Eagles — Marcus Peters (CB, Washington)
Chip Kelly’s love affair with former Pac-12 players continues. The Eagles added Byron Maxwell but he needs a partner in crime. Walter Thurmond will cover the slot. If this is an attempt to mimic the Seahawks, Peters is a perfect fit with his physical style and press-man skills.

#21 Cincinnati Bengals — Malcom Brown (DT, Texas)
Another former 5-star recruit with major potential. His stock would be much higher if Texas hadn’t fallen away as a national contender. Lives in the backfield — he’s an absolute terror. Put him next to Geno Atkins and enjoy.

#22 Pittsburgh Steelers — Landon Collins (S, Alabama)
Eventually the day will come when they need to replace Troy Polamalu. That day feels like it’s close. Collins is physical, rangy and loves to hit. He’d have some big shoes to fill, but he’s the same style of safety.

#23 Detroit Lions — La’el Collins (T, LSU)
A lot of the top defensive tackles are off the board so they go in a different direction. Collins can play tackle or guard. He looked in superb shape at the combine. He could go earlier than this.

#24 Arizona Cardinals — Eli Harold (DE, Virginia)
They’ve missed out on Brian Orakpo to the Titans and haven’t really filled that edge-rush hole. Harold is the definition of ‘pissed off for greatness’ and would be a classic fit in the Cardinals’ sparky defense.

#25 Carolina Panthers — Andrus Peat (T, Stanford)
He looks like a prototype on tape but at the combine his body shape was pretty strange — enormous lower body, smaller upper body. It could put some teams off. If he falls, Carolina will pounce on the value here.

#26 Baltimore Ravens — Todd Gurley (RB, Georgia)
They’ve re-signed Justin Forsett on a modest deal. They can now add Gurley, redshirt him and dominate the AFC North from 2016.

#27 Dallas Cowboys — Byron Jones (CB, Connecticut)
This has to be a defensive pick surely? Jones’ stunning combine should push him into the first frame. Dallas can take a player at pretty much any position on defense and you can make a case to justify it.

#28 Denver Broncos — Ereck Flowers (T, Miami)
I’m a big fan of Flowers and think he could go a lot earlier than this. Whether you move him inside to guard or start him at right tackle — he plays with a mean edge, drives defenders off the line in the running game and just gets the job done.

#29 Indianapolis Colts — T.J. Clemmings (T, Pittsburgh)
He has incredible upside and for that reason could go in the top-20 easily. And yet he’s such a work in progress. He might not offer much as a rookie. The Colts ideally go defense here but can they afford to pass on value like this? He’s worth a shot. Great character too.

#30 Green Bay Packers — Stephone Anthony (LB, Clemson)
His stock has exploded after a good combine and even better pro-day. The Packers need to add a centerpiece at the heart of their defense. They can’t afford to get cute if they want Anthony and might just take him here — or after a small trade out of the first round.

#31 New Orleans Saints — Jordan Phillips (DT, Oklahoma)
After taking an edge rusher at #13 they add a nose tackle to anchor their 3-4 defense. This really depends on the health of Phillips’ back. He has the athleticism and power to be a special player if it all clicks at the next level.

#32 New England Patriots — Kevin Johnson (CB, Wake Forest)
There’s a bit of a drop after Johnson so the Pats — in desperate need of talent at cornerback — have to consider this. How do you lose Revis and Browner in one off-season and not think about the position here?

Round two

#33 Tennessee Titans — Breshad Perriman (WR, USF)
#34 Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Jake Fisher (T, Oregon)
#35 Oakland Raiders — Carl Davis (DT, Iowa)
#36 Jacksonville Jaguars — Erick Kendricks (LB, UCLA)
#37 New York Jets — Bendarick McKinney (LB, Mississippi State)
#38 Washington Redskins — Ronald Darby (CB, Florida State)
#39 Chicago Bears — Owa Odighizuwa (DE, UCLA)
#40 New York Giants — Preston Smith (DE, Mississippi State)
#41 St. Louis Rams — Cameron Erving (C, Florida State)
#42 Atlanta Falcons — Phillip Dorsett (WR, Miami)
#43 Cleveland Browns — Jaelen Strong (WR, Arizona State)
#44 New Orleans Saints — Devin Funchess (WR, Michigan)
#45 Minnesota Vikings — Paul Dawson (LB, TCU)
#46 San Francisco 49ers — Denzel Perryman (LB, Miami)
#47 Miami Dolphins — Shaq Thompson (LB/S, Washington)
#48 San Diego Chargers — Grady Jarrett (DT, Clemson)
#49 Kansas City Chiefs — Nelson Agholor (WR, USC)
#50 Buffalo Bills — A.J. Cann (G, South Carolina)
#51 Houston Texans — Maxx Williams (TE, Minnesota)
#52 Philadelphia Eagles — Devin Smith (WR, Ohio State)
#53 Cincinnati Bengals — Tyler Lockett (WR, Kansas State)
#54 Detroit Lions — Michael Bennett (DT, Ohio State)
#55 Arizona Cardinals — T.J. Yeldon (RB, Alabama)
#56 Pittsburgh Steelers — Steven Nelson (CB, Oregon State)
#57 Carolina Panthers — Dorial Green-Beckham (WR, Missouri)
#58 Baltimore Ravens — Henry Anderson (DE, Stanford)
#59 Denver Broncos — Tevin Coleman (RB, Indiana)
#60 Dallas Cowboys — Jay Ajayi (RB, Boise State)
#61 Indianapolis Colts — Eric Rowe (CB, Utah)
#62 Green Bay Packers — P.J. Williams (CB, Florida State)
#63 Seattle Seahawks — Ty Sambrailo (T/G, Colorado State)
#64 New England Patriots — Sammie Coates (WR, Auburn)

A quick thought on Seattle’s pick. I suspect we’ll see a lot of receivers come off the board at the start of day two meaning the options are fairly limited at #63. You’re not likely to trade up and give away valuable mid-round picks — not this year anyway. With Tyler Lockett and Henry Anderson off the board it was pretty simple to take Ty Sambrailo here. It’s probably a round early for most teams — but the Seahawks won’t care. He’s an ideal scheme fit. Tom Cable combines a zone blocking scheme with size for the power running game. Sambrailo has nimble feet and great mobility — plus the size to fill the enormous hole left by James Carpenter. It’s a great fit.

Having addressed the key needs on offense (dynamic big target) and defense (cornerback) the next big issue is the offensive line. They’ve lost two starters (Carpenter & Max Unger) and need to be proactive here. Sambrailo offers a day one starter at guard. The Seahawks seem to like tackle converts — he ticks that box too.

I suspect Tyler Lockett will be highly desirable as a possible kick-returner and contributor to the passing game. He’s off the board at #53 to Cincinnati. There’s good enough depth at the position to wait until rounds 3-4, where they could target Tre McBride.

What will the Seahawks do in the second wave of free agency?

Randy Starks’ “call me NOW” face

In the aftermath of the Jimmy Graham trade the Seahawks were still being linked to key free agents. The Jabaal Sheard talk quickly went quiet as he signed with the Patriots. Terrance Knighton and Andre Johnson were both suggested targets, while Stefen Wisniewski is visiting with the team today along with Shelley Smith.

We’ll come back to specific players in a moment but first lets get into the harsh reality of the situation. Seattle barely has any free cap room. They can probably do a minor deal or two for a cheap veteran but there’s unlikely to be another splash without an existing player being sacrificed.

As Chris Cluff points out, they have about $15m in cap space. Approximately $5 million is needed for the rookie class, practice squad players and IR cover. More importantly, they need to save around $8-10m for the year-one pay increases of Russell Wilson, Bobby Wagner and J.R. Sweezy when they agree new contracts.

There are ways to create extra room. Cutting Jermaine Kearse saves a couple of million. Releasing Tony McDaniel frees up $3m and Brandon Mebane provides $5m in relief. There’s every chance Mebane will be asked to take a pay cut. You can also convert Jimmy Graham’s roster bonus into a signing bonus — spreading the cost and saving $3.3m.

None of these situations are ideal. Kearse isn’t a dominating receiver but is it really worth losing him? If you release McDaniel and Mebane you’re only going to need to replace them. Moving Graham’s bonus creates 2015 cap space but takes away money in 2016 and beyond.

You could back-load a contract of course, limiting the initial damage. This, ultimately, is how other teams get into trouble.

Talk of Andre Johnson joining Graham in Seattle appeared fanciful and simply unrealistic. Sheard’s contract in New England is very much ‘prove-it’ in terms of salary but it’s not the type of move the Seahawks are really in a position to make.

If they’re going to do anything, it’s probably going to be cheap and short term. I suspect it’ll come on the defensive line, although John Schneider says they’ll scour the cut-market for a possible Max Unger replacement at center.

A year ago they were hunting for value and didn’t stray from that mentality. They spoke to Henry Melton and Jared Allen and came close to signing both. They were prepared, ultimately, to miss out in order to avoid spending above their means. It’s no different in 2015.

It’s not a deep class for D-liners. You’ve got a really top-heavy situation where a lot of edge rushers and interior tackles are going to go off the board early. It’ll be rich pickings in the top 15-20. After that you’re going to see a real decrease in quality.

There will be some gems to be had — Henry Anderson is a stout, surprisingly athletic and long interior presence. Anthony Chickillo played out of position at Miami and could develop into a nice edge rush project. What Markus Golden lacks in length and raw speed he makes up for with a relentless approach. Zach Hodges has the length and burst to play the LEO. Grady Jarrett at Clemson is a good player rushing inside, which Derick Lott and Rakeem Nunez-Roches have some upside. Owa Odighizuwa will make somebody happy in round two if you believe he can stay healthy. I don’t believe he will last until #63.

You wouldn’t necessarily want to thrust any of these players into a starting role — or at least give them a lot of snaps. They’re all raw in their own different ways. There are significantly more plug-in-and-play offensive linemen in this class. If you want to add a proven commodity to fill a need, you’re probably looking at the D-line.

Terrance Knighton is heading to DC and will be signing for Washington. The Seahawks were linked with him briefly. If they were serious about bringing him in I think it almost had to be a straight swap — you cut Mebane and give his salary to Knighton. It’s a move I think they’d only consider if there were genuine concerns about the health of Mebane’s hamstring injury. That’s perhaps something we have to monitor.

Randy Starks still remains a great fit. He’s been released by Miami so won’t cost Seattle a compensatory pick. He’s an ideal interior rusher for the scheme and would provide much needed depth and competition for Jordan Hill. He does everything well with the pass rush skills to boot. His 2014 cap hit was $4m so it’s not beyond the realms of possibility you could work out a nice contract here. Knighton getting $4m suggests the market has gone a bit flat at defensive tackle.

Remember, Pete Carroll spoke glowingly about Starks before the 2012 game between Seattle and Miami. There’s no indication yet on where he might end up, but don’t be surprised if he emerges as a target for the Seahawks. If you want him badly enough — convert Graham’s bonus and add the $3.3m in cap space.

Vince Wilfork remains a free agent but he isn’t the same player these days. If he’s taking a really cheap deal to continue, you’d expect him to re-emerge in New England.

Would they re-sign Red Bryant again? I think it’s unlikely. They’ve moved on.

Karl Klug could be one to monitor in terms of depth. He’s received very little interest so far and remains without a club. He could be had on a cheap one-year contract.

In terms of possible edge rushers — they don’t have the cash to go after Brian Orakpo (visiting the Titans) or Greg Hardy (linked with multiple teams). Michael Johnson is likely to sign with either the Vikings or the Bengals. Akeem Ayers is joining the Rams. Dwight Freeney remains intriguing. He’s likely to be cheap, he still has a bit left in the tank and would probably welcome a rotational support role.

There’s no reason to be overly concerned with the edge rush depth. The Seahawks still sport one of the best pass rush duo’s in the league (Bennett & Avril) and will find additional help somewhere — even if it comes in the draft. Cassius Marsh will also return from injury. They need to replace O’Brien Schofield, who signed for the Falcons today. Whether it’s Freeney or a rookie, they’ll find someone.

Can they sign Stefen Wisniewski? I’m not overly convinced. This could be a feeling out move — we’d like to have you but only at a certain cost. ‘Go and see what your market is and if you want to play here give us a call’. I’m a little suspicious about his departure from Oakland. He was essentially drafted by the Raiders because his family name is well regarded within the organisation (his uncle famously played for the Raiders). Despite a bucket load of free cap space they’re letting him walk to go and get an $8m replacement in Rodney Hudson. I’ve not studied his play but you can’t help but wonder why Oakland are letting him go.

This is a draft loaded with offensive linemen. You can work to develop a center like Ali Marpet or B.J. Finney while letting them compete with Patrick Lewis and possibly another veteran. Ty Sambrailo would be a plug-in-and-play left guard. There’s a host of athletic tackles that will be available in the later rounds worthy of being converted to interior linemen. We’ve spent a lot of time discussing the likes of Rob Crisp for example.

It’s also worth a mention that Seattle still has to add a backup quarterback (Tarvaris Jackson?) to the roster, unless they plan to roll with B.J. Daniels. If they keep Jackson, that’s going to further eat into the available cap space.

It’s going to be hard for the Seahawks to make any further moves of any substance or interest. They brought in Shelley Smith today — Rotoworld’s #22 ranked available guard. That’s kind of the market they’re working in now.

There are big holes to fill — all of which can be answered with eight picks in rounds 2-5. Guard, center, defensive line, cornerback and receiver should all get some attention. This is a good enough draft class in that range to find real value and genuine role players.

The options at #31 and how they compare to Jimmy Graham

Jaelen Strong could’ve been on the board at #31, but wouldn’t have the same impact as Jimmy Graham

We’ve commented a few times that there’s probably only 15-18 genuine first round prospects in this years draft. John Schneider backed that up via Peter King today — suggesting Seattle had 16 players with first round grades. Of course there’s at least a chance one of the 16 makes it to pick #31. It’s still unlikely. The Seahawks traded their first round selection for Jimmy Graham yesterday — but really they dealt a second round prospect.

The Seahawks have already ‘built through the draft’. They’ve done the hard part by hitting on the Wilson’s, Sherman’s, Thomas’, Chancellor’s and Wagner’s. It’s actually pretty difficult to improve this roster. Yesterday’s trade was one of the few ways they could do it. They landed the one thing they’ve been trying to get for years — a dynamic big target and a touchdown maker at WR/TE.

Of course they’ve already gone down this road before. The post-mortem of the Percy Harvin trade uncovered a couple of major wounds. The Seahawks could’ve used Harvin’s massive new salary to keep Golden Tate. They also wasted the #25 pick in 2013. Yet within the #25-35 radius of players taken that year, the options weren’t all that great. The best player taken was probably DeAndre Hopkins at #27, although if you re-sign Tate you possibly don’t draft him. Datone Jones has flattered to deceive and Cordarrelle Patterson can’t be trusted to run a basic route tree. As we now know, Zach Ertz isn’t the type of tight end they were looking for.

Harvin was a disaster in Seattle — and still the decision to trade for him made total sense. The draft altenatives weren’t great. The one major blow was the loss of Tate. The Seahawks wouldn’t necessarily be any better for having DeAndre Hopkins or Datone Jones today. They’re probably still trading for Graham. And Harvin, in his only unique little way, did contribute to the Super Bowl victory.

Now we have the opportunity to look at who the Seahawks could be passing on at #31 with this latest move. It’s a subject we can properly assess after the first round on April 30th but I suspect we’ll end up looking at a very similar situation to 2013. After a couple of years there won’t be anyone you really pine for, even if Graham is a bust.

In both instances the biggest blow to fans was the feeling of being robbed of entertainment on day one of the draft. Harvin is/was better than the options available in 2013. Graham is in exactly the same situation. In fact the talent difference is even more substantial this year.

I put together an unpublished pre-free agency mock draft for my own entertainment. By pick #31 I had five cornerbacks off the board and only the big three receivers were taken (Cooper, White and Parker — in that order). It was a review of the great depth at wide out this year and the lack of numbers at corner. I think teams will prioritize the cornerback position and feel comfortable waiting on a second or third round receiver. When you see Kansas City giving Jeremy Maclin $11m APY it lends weight to that theory. They’ve eliminated the absolute need to go wide out at #18.

Jaelen Strong, I believe, will still be there in the late first. He made flashy plays in college — one handed grabs, contested catches galore, that hail mary. And yet the more and more you watched, the same thing stood out in every tape. He can’t separate. It’s all well and good running in the 4.4’s and jumping 37 inches in the vertical. He is not a sudden athlete who eats up a cushion to drive off a defender across the middle. He doesn’t win with the double move to create separation downfield. He’s not even a particularly efficient route runner with control — he’ll take himself to the sideline and let a defender guide him out of bounds to limit the throwing window.

It’s not all bad of course. He’s a terrific high-point catcher with superb leaping ability. He has a thick lower body and basketball bloodlines. In a good passing offense I think he will thrive (with some technical development). Yet I doubt he’s going to be the focal point of an attack. He won’t be a great solution for Alex Smith in Kansas City running a shorter passing game. So despite the productive combine I think he lasts a little longer as teams focus on cornerbacks and offensive linemen in the second half of the first round.

Jordan Matthews also ran in the 4.4’s and had a 35.5 inch vertical. He has similar size to Strong and had similar college production. He was pick #42 last year. So Strong is no lock to go in the first just because he had a better-than-expected combine.

Would you rather have Strong compared to Jimmy Graham? It’s a silly question really. The Seahawks badly need a size mismatch, a touchdown maker and a guy who draws coverage every snap. Strong’s ability to compete for the ball would’ve been appealing but that’s really about it. A Twitter timeline littered with retaliations to online criticism is also a little too close to the Doug Baldwin school of venting for comfort (I’m only half joking).

I think Breshad Perriman will be there at #31. He started to grow on me the more I watched. He’s a lot more explosive off the snap, he can eat up a cushion and he finds ways to get open. He has the deep speed to take the top off a defense and he’s adept at tracking the ball from awkward angles and making chunk plays. In many ways he has the makings of a very accomplished receiver — until you consider the exasperating, consistent drops.

Sadly, many players who drop the football regularly aren’t cured by endless work on the jugs machine (contrary to popular opinion). It’s an art form, a skill. Perriman is every bit as frustrating as Sammie Coates. At the next level Perriman will be a superior receiver to Coates and will make a lot of plays but he’ll also frustrate the heck out of you too.

Again, he doesn’t solve Seattle’s greatest need — a touchdown maker in the red zone, a size mismatch who draws special coverage and takes attention away from the O-line (prevents the stacked box).

I think we’ll see a cluster of offensive linemen leaving the board between picks #16-30, including the underrated Ereck Flowers, La’el Collins, T.J. Clemmings and Andrus Peat. The Seahawks could’ve had a shot at Jake Fisher or Cameron Erving. Some will rue that missed opportunity. Erving can play guard or center, Fisher guard or tackle. Here’s the thing though — I’m not sure either player fits Seattle’s offense as well as Ty Sambrailo. I sat down and watched the Nevada/Colorado State game today and it just reemphasized how confident I am Sambrailo could be Seattle’s choice at #63. His massive size, quick feet and willingness to get to the second level is perfect for a team combining power running with a zone blocking scheme.

Even if they’d kept the pick — I’m not sure they would’ve taken either Fisher or Erving at #31 because they could’ve been waiting on Sambrailo in rounds 2-3.

If you can still replace Carpenter at #63 with Sambrailo and add a veteran center (or take one in rounds 4-5, such as Kansas State’s B.J. Finney) you’re addressing the situation. The value difference between Fisher/Erving at #31 and Sambrailo in rounds 2-3 is pretty equal. And I think all three players have a chance to be productive starters at the next level.

What about defensive options? The top defensive tackles will all be gone by #31. A lot of the best edge rushers will be gone too — and there’s really very little need for a Preston Smith or Owa Odighizuwa with Michael Bennett and Cassius Marsh on the roster. Some extra depth is necessary and that will probably come in the second or third wave of free agency.

It’s a shame they didn’t have the cap room to do a deal like this:

That’s a bargain ‘prove-it’ deal for Sheard but the Pats have serious needs on defense after losing Wilfork, Revis and Browner. The Seahawks’ concerns were mainly on offense — and they’ve now addressed that and will need to continue to do so with the offensive line. They still have an opportunity to bring in a veteran pass rusher at a discount, possibly Dwight Freeney. If you’re not happy about that — remember there aren’t many teams with a quality D-end duo like Bennett and Avril signed for the long haul.

At defensive tackle — keep an eye on Randy Starks. Pete Carroll offered gushing praise for Starks before the 2012 meeting between Miami and Seattle. John Schneider talked about signing cut players because it won’t impact compensatory picks next year. The Dolphins released Starks today after finalizing a deal for Ndamukong Suh. He could fill the role of free agent Kevin Williams.

You might ask about missing out on Todd Gurley as a future replacement for Marshawn Lynch. Personally I think he’ll be off the board by #31 (I had him at #26 in my unpublished mock). Even if he lasts — the Seahawks have signed Lynch for three years. He might only play one more but what if he plays two or three? Suddenly the pick looks like a bit of a luxury. The impact of Graham preventing opponents from being able to stack too heavily against the run cannot be underestimated. Adding a running back of the future helps down the line but the Seahawks are trying to win it all in 2015. Graham’s addition will benefit Lynch, Russell Wilson and the offensive line.

I will do a new mock when free agency calms down in a few days. A few other quick notes though from the unpublished version:

— I had Melvin Gordon going to the Chargers at #17. Middling combine or not, he’s a playmaker and I think someone will take him early. The Chargers are in win-now mode too and lost Ryan Mathews to Philadelphia.

— I had Marcus Peters in the top-20. I suspect there will be a big rush on cornerbacks, starting with New Orleans at #13.

— Brandon Scherff went to the Rams at #10, a pick that looks more and more likely today.

If you’re going to compare Jimmy Graham to the possibility of drafting Strong/Perriman/Fisher/Erving — Graham wins out every time as a proven commodity, a genuine top player at his position and exactly the type of chess piece the Seahawks were desperate to acquire for Wilson and the offense.

They filled their biggest need this off-season with the #31 pick. They just did it in a way nobody expected.

Seahawks draft: Jimmy Graham trade impact

Coming to a stadium near you

For thoughts on the blockbuster trade sending Jimmy Graham to the Seahawks, click here

Who will they draft in round two?

It almost makes too much sense to target Colorado State offensive lineman Ty Sambrailo at #63. They could even make a small move back into the third round before pulling the trigger. He’s a big, athletic tackle convert with a fantastic personality. The Seahawks like interior linemen with tackle experience. He has some of the size James Carpenter offered (6-6, 311lbs) but he’s much more agile with quick feet. He’s an ideal fit for a zone blocking scheme that still values size and the power running game. He plays with an edge and gets to the second level. He’s someone you can work with and develop — he gives off a Seahawks vibe. He’s graded all over the place but you can imagine Seattle taking him a round early (as they tend to do) to get one of ‘their’ guys. Instant starter.

What are the alternatives?

If they can get Sambrailo later keep an eye on Henry Anderson (DT, Stanford). He’s long and athletic and would add to the interior defensive line rotation. Terrific tackler and works well against the run. The signing of Cary Williams takes away the need to force an early cornerback pick. Cameron Erving (C, Florida State) is unlikely to last into the late second round. They could look at receivers and the offense still lacks a dynamic deep threat. Phillip Dorsett (WR, Miami) could still be on the board, although it’s unlikely. Don’t rule out a bit of a reach to get a coveted prospect. Kansas State’s Tyler Lockett could be a surprise option if they think this is the only spot they can get him.

What about the middle rounds?

This is where the fun begins. The value at #31 wasn’t great. You’re looking at possibly 15-18 first round grades in the 2015 draft — if that. The value-gap between #31 and #63 won’t be that substantial. And there’s a ton of depth in the middle rounds at positions of need. Seattle has a cluster of picks here and it isn’t a coincidence. They’re projected to have their original third round pick, four picks in the fourth round (their own, New Orleans’ and a compensatory pick) and three in round five (their own plus two compensatory picks).

It’s a shame Percy Harvin was cut by the Jets taking away another fourth rounder. There’s a legitimate opportunity to collect 2-3 key contributors here, if not more.

One of the top priorities will be to add a kick return specialist. Bryan Walters, bless him, tried his best. But the Seahawks got pretty much nothing out of him apart from the odd fair catch and a few snaps on offense. They need someone who can take care of the kick returns and provide a role player on offense too. Tre McBride is one possibility in the third or fourth round. He’s extremely talented with great character, athleticism and catching technique. He returned kicks for William & Mary. Tyler Lockett is also incredibly ‘Seahawky’ — competitive, gritty, a film junkie. He had a sensational Senior Bowl. As noted earlier, you can imagine them taking him earlier than expected (round two?). They might target him specifically in the third or fourth round if he lasts. He’s a punt return specialist. These are the two options I would focus on. The big thing with both players — they can contribute to the offense and get downfield. Size is not an issue following the addition of Graham.

They could double down on receiver given the value this year. Darren Waller is a Vincent Jackson clone in terms of physical attributes and speed. He’s a million miles away from contributing in the NFL and needs one or maybe two years of development. That could scare off the Seahawks and others. If he’s on the board in the fourth or fifth round he could be worth a flier for the long term.

Center will be another target position following the Max Unger trade. I’ve done a quick scan on a couple of prospects having not paid much attention to this group (obviously). Hobart’s Ali Marpet was one of the stories of the Senior Bowl and he had a solid combine too. If you search Google images for ‘ideal zone blocking frame for a center’ you’ll find a picture of Marpet. He faces a major step up in competition level. Competitive individual, typical lineman. Not much tape to get at but he’s a project anyway.

B.J. Finney (C, Kansas State) is a four year starter, team captain and a former walk-on. Even more appealing is his wrestling background (see: Justin Britt). He’s a totally different player to Marpet (much less athletic) but just looks solid. On a first viewing he’s strong, doesn’t get pushed around, seems to jam defenders at the point and finish and he’s effective in the running game. Britt was a total wildcard a year ago and there’s no real consistency with Tom Cable’s O-line picks. Finney is more pro-ready than Marpet and could be trusted to start early. Just don’t expect anything spectacular.

There aren’t a ton of options at center and the value might not be there. If you can’t justify taking Marpet or Finney until rounds 4-5, by that point both might be off the board. It’s perhaps more likely they’ll add a veteran stopgap and let them compete with Patrick Lewis and/or Lemuel Jeanpierre. Replacing Carpenter is easier in this draft. We’ll have a broader look at the center class over the next couple of weeks.

You would expect the Seahawks to draft a cornerback at some point in rounds 4-5. Let’s see where Stanford’s Alex Carter falls. I’m not convinced he’ll go as early as some are projecting and he could be there in round four. Can you go receiver (McBride), receiver (Lockett), cornerback (Carter) center (Marpet/Finney) in rounds 3-4? That might be a tad optimistic but this is just a loose projection looking at the possible target positions. If you collect a haul like that, you could be looking at 3-4 role players or starters. Not bad for that range in the draft.

What about the three picks in round five?

This is a good place to target developmental offensive and defensive linemen. Here are some prospects to look at: Rob Crisp (T, NC State), Laurence Gibson (T, Virginia Tech), Rakeem Nunez-Roches (DT, Southern Miss), Zach Hodges (DE, Harvard), Derrick Lott (DT, Tenn-Chatt), Anthony Chickillo (DE, Miami), Mitch Morse (T, Missouri), Terry Poole (T, San Diego State).

Crisp and Gibson have the size, length and upside to stick at tackle, while you probably consider moving Morse and Poole inside to guard. The defensive linemen have an opportunity to fill out your D-line rotation. In the fifth you could also look at a safety (Kurtis Drummond? Josh Shaw?) or a cornerback project (a small school prospect or a convert like Nick Marshall). Davis Tull played end for Tenn-Chatt but is expected to move to the SAM at the next level — he has the athelticism to play linebacker in Seattle. There’s also the opportunity to consider drafting a running back in round five, given the relative depth of the class.

Conclusion

None of the names listed here are flashy household names. That’s not what this draft is about. We’re unlikely to see another selection like Christine Michael (first pick in 2013 after the Harvin trade). They have a genuine opportunity to fill in the gaps that need filling. A starter at guard, a kick returner, another receiver, a developmental corner. They can fill out the depth on both lines and possibly find a center.

It’s not going to be easy to find extra depth for the edge rush rotation. This could be the reason why they’re reportedly showing interest in prospects like Jabaal Sheard and Adrian Clayborn.

Michael was a bit of a luxury at the time for a team carrying a loaded roster. I’m not sure they’ll go for that type here. This time they have some needs that need addressing.

When you consider the entire draft, the thinking behind the Jimmy Graham trade becomes even clearer. You can find a starting guard in round two (Sambrailo) so why knock yourself out grabbing one at #31? You can find receivers in rounds 3-4. You had zero chance to draft a player as dominating as Graham to boost your offense. I would expect the likes of Jaelen Strong and Breshad Perriman to be there at #31. Neither will get close to Graham in terms of taking Seattle’s offense to the next level.

The one big concession you make is the new hole at center. They managed without Unger for 13 games in 2014 — you suspect they’ll find a way to cope again in 2015. The extra cap relief will also help you potentially bring in a veteran defensive lineman.

It’s been a while since the Seahawks had a rich middle of a draft — finding key contributors or even the odd superstar. The best value in this draft is in rounds 3-5. Seattle has seven picks in that range and it has to be by design. That’s one of several reasons they can use to justify the Graham trade.

BREAKING: Seahawks trade for Jimmy Graham

In a crazy five minute spell, three huge trades ignited the off-season.

The Seahawks traded their first round pick and Max Unger for Jimmy Graham and New Orleans’ fourth round pick

The Rams swapped Sam Bradford for Philadelphia’s Nick Foles

Haloti Ngata was dealt to the Detroit Lions to replace Ndamukong Suh

Welcome to the 2015 season.

Seattle had to find a big target — a dynamic tight end. There were no options in the draft and when Julius Thomas chose to sign for the Jaguars, they were forced to look elsewhere. Jordan Cameron was a risky Plan B due to his history of concussions.

Step forward, Jimmy Graham.

The two best (and highest paid) tight ends in the league are Rob Gronkwoski and Graham. If your opinion of the latter is dominated by two miserable outings against the Seahawks in 2013, you’ll be doing him a disservice. We’re talking about a player every bit as explosive and difficult to plan for as Gronk. The ultimate mismatch. Exactly what Seattle was looking for. We discussed yesterday whether they’d turn to the trade market after missing out on Thomas. It was clear they wanted to find a solution here.

They needed a seam-buster. They needed a red zone threat. They needed someone who draws constant attention. If you put Graham at the LOS and have him motion out, you’re going to find he’s covered by a safety or linebacker. That’s where he wins — with massive size (6-7, 265lbs) and receiver agility. Not even Gronkowski compares favorably to the freakish physical talent Graham possesses.

He’s also a touchdown maker — something the Seahawks badly needed at receiver or tight end. Graham has 46 touchdowns since 2011. Only Marshawn Lynch and Dez Bryant have more.

The downside is the cost involved. The Seahawks haven’t used a first round pick on an actual draft prospect since Bruce Irvin in 2012. It’ll be four years until their next one — IF they spend their 2016 pick. Graham isn’t young either. He’ll be 29 in November.

Julius Thomas agreed a contract worth an average of $9.2m a year over four years in Jacksonville. It’s costly but he’s 27 this year. He’s not as dominant as Graham but he’s younger with a similar cap hit. If the Seahawks pull off that signing they keep the #31 pick. It’s safe to say missing out on Thomas had an enormous impact. You could also look at it another way. If they knew they could trade for Graham you can afford to stick to your guns on the price for Thomas. Basically, you say, “take this offer if you want it, otherwise we’re looking elsewhere.” That approach would mean you offer much less than the $9.2m APY being offered by the Jags. If this is the scenario, Graham was probably always the key target. They just wanted to see if they could get Thomas for a bargain first.

You also lose Max Unger as part of the deal. This trade solves one major problem and creates another. They have to find a center and now they don’t have the #31 pick to potentially spend on a prospect like Cameron Erving. You lose Unger’s $4.5m cap hit and gain Graham’s $8m. It’s a net loss of about $3.5m — which isn’t restrictive. When you add in Zach Miller’s departure, you’ve basically swapped Unger and Miller for Graham at the expense of a first round pick.

With James Carpenter also agreeing terms with the New York Jets, you now have to fill two holes on the offensive line. I would expect Ty Sambrailo to be a target in round two. They could look at Ali Marpet to fill the hole at center. Tom Cable is going to have a huge job on his hands this off-season.

It’s just a shame Rodney Hudson’s market is so strong. He’s set to join the Raiders for $8m APY.

It goes to show just how determined the Seahawks were to add a genuine X-factor on offense. They didn’t have one before today. A Virgil Green signing or a Charles Clay wasn’t going to get it done. They wanted a Graham or a Thomas. A top dog. And they’re willing to sacrifice a key offensive lineman to get it done.

A note on the first rounder for the sake of perspective. This years draft has around 15-18 legit first round prospects, then about 40-50 players with similar grades. You weren’t going to get great value at #31 without trading down a couple of times. Now you get Graham and another fourth rounder. The middle rounds are loaded in this class. You can get a Sambrailo for the guard spot, a Marpet for center. You can still add a receiver and some defensive line depth. The Seahawks are adding veteran cornerbacks already.

Graham’s age is an interesting talking point. You’re looking at probably three years of top production. That perhaps fits in with Seattle’s current Championship window. In three years time the Sherman’s, Chancellor’s and co will also be pushing 30. This looks like a move to ensure there are no more close calls at the one yard line. A move to try and win another Championship (or two) now. This is ‘win now’ mode.

A few other thoughts on a crazy afternoon:

— It’s a shame to lose Unger, but he’s missed considerable time through injury (13 games in 2013 & 2014). It opens up a new position we can focus on over the next couple of weeks, unless they sign a veteran replacement.

— By trading Unger and cutting Miller — and with the possibility to convert a roster bonus on Graham’s contract to save another $3m — don’t rule out further moves in free agency. They can still hunt for value, particularly on the defensive line.

— That fourth rounder as part of the deal could land a very good player.

— If you sign Julius Thomas, you lose the third round compensatory pick for 2016 you’ll get with Byron Maxwell signing a huge contract with the Eagles. The Seahawks still get that pick after this trade.

— We expected the Seahawks to trade down (like last year) out of the first round, probably for a fourth round pick. Considering they acquired a fourth rounder from New Orleans, you could look at this as an early second round pick plus Unger for Graham. Perhaps they had little faith in Unger staying healthy and were set to move him anyway?

— You might criticize the overall cost (draft plus salary) but if there’s one thing worse than paying top dollar for an elite player, it’s paying good money for a bad or average player. If you’re going to spend, go for the best.

— If Seattle doesn’t make this deal they run the risk of another year talking about the same issues. They clearly didn’t want that.

— How many teams can boast a trio like Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch and Jimmy Graham?

— Jake Locker is retiring from football. It’s sad news but not altogether surprising. The injuries have taken their toll.

— How much of a threat are the Rams with Nick Foles? He’s certainly an upgrade on what they’ve had under Jeff Fisher so far. He’s not as good as some people will have you believe and he too has been banged up in his career. But the Rams have the talent to win big even with a league average QB.

Gil Brandt suggested yesterday he had inside info that the Eagles won’t be trading for Marcus Mariota. Trading for Bradford doesn’t end that possibility but suggests the Eagles might be forced to look in another direction. The possible reason? I would guess a lack of interest within the top five to move down to #20 without a mega deal — and the Eagles lack of interest in pulling an RGIII. Or it could be Tennessee’s determination to take him with the #2 pick.

If there’s any other big Seahawks news today we’ll start a new thread. For now give your reaction to the big trade in the comments section.

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