Month: January 2019 (Page 1 of 3)

The Seahawks will trade down from #21. We all know that.

It’s very difficult to project a trade (we had to do it for a full draft season last year). I’m going to offer the same proposal here that was involved in our latest mock draft. It’s a deal with Buffalo.

Ultimately the team, the terms and the scenario don’t matter. Really this is just an exercise to fill out Seattle’s board for a projection.

Here’s the deal…

In our last mock we had Buffalo trading down in round one (going from #9 to #12). They acquired a third round pick. This gave the Bills two picks in the third, fourth and fifth round. It seems ample stock to try and trade back into round one to try and build around young quarterback Josh Allen. So we had them trade from #40 up to #21 for Jonah Williams. The Seahawks, for moving down 19 spots, receive a third, fourth and fifth round pick.

Here’s what they’d end up with:

R2 (#40)
R3 (#76)
R3 (#85)
R4 (#118)
R4 (#125)
R5 (#148)
R5 (#149)

I have no idea whether this is realistic or not. The Seahawks might not want to trade down that far in one go. The Bills might not want to aggressively trade back into round one. It’s difficult to make sense of what could happen — especially this early in the process.

For now, this is what I’m going with.

If something like this did happen, it’s possible the Seahawks could trade down again from #40. This feels like a draft with some day three value. With Pete Carroll emphasising a desire for competition rather than any specific positional need, collecting day three picks seems like a realistic target.

At this point it’s also worth remembering the Seahawks only have 47 players contracted in 2019. Only three teams have fewer and that includes the Los Angeles Rams (who are yet to sign anyone to a futures contract because their season is yet to be completed).

While some are suggesting the Seahawks can make a significant free agent splurge — the reality is they have to prioritise retaining their own, find a solution to the Wilson/Wagner/Reed/Clark dilemma and fill out their roster. There’s not enough money to do all of those things and add a $15-20m free agent. They’re going to need to look for value and let free agency come to them.

It also means they’re going to need a decent collection of draft picks. Thus, the potential to trade down more than once.

It’s probably not the most exciting thing to consider for fans. Some will want a splash. They want to see a couple of big names added, believing it could push Seattle ‘over the top’. The Seahawks already have most of the pieces to contend. They need some of their younger players to take a big step forward in 2019, they need greater depth on both sides of the ball and they need competition.

If Anthony Barr’s market is chilly when free agency begins — that could be an opportunity to repeat the Bennett/Avril heist of 2013. Aside from any prospective moves like that, the biggest free agent acquisition they might make is a quality kicker. And who would argue with that? Their one ‘splurge’ could be to sign Stephen Gostkowski away from the Patriots. It could be to go and get Robbie Gould from the Niners. They’ve had three inconsistent years of kicking. It’s time to sort that out.

Anyway, back to the mock. It’s a post-Senior Bowl projection so it’s heavily influenced by what happened in Mobile (and to a lesser extent, the Shrine Game). The combine will change things of course. We’ll do another seven-rounder after that to see how things have changed.

R2 (#40) — Will Grier (QB, West Virginia)
I firmly believe the Seahawks will target and draft a quarterback this year. We’ve gone over the reasons why, relating to Russell Wilson’s contract. Why Grier? I wrote a more detailed explanation here. He was the best deep-ball thrower in college football for the last two years and specialises in explosive pass-plays on go-routes. He elevated West Virginia and led them to significant wins (eg Texas on the road). John Schneider attended the Oklahoma vs West Virginia game in person. It’s possible Grier could be available in round three. It’s possible they could trade down again from this spot and land him later in round two. Regardless, I believe they will strongly consider drafting a quarterback early.

R3 (#76) — Khalen Saunders (DT, Western Illinois)
I like everything about Khalen Saunders. He dominated at a small-school level. He’s strong enough to toss linemen to the ground, he controls the POA, he can shoot gaps with quickness and swim/rip to the backfield. You see him working down the line to stretch out runs and he even took some snaps at DE. He can do back-flips at over 300lbs. He’s a sensational athlete with massive potential and great character. He was a ‘wow’ performer at the Senior Bowl. The only thing that makes me pause is arm length. The Seahawks nearly always draft defensive linemen with +33 inch arms and Saunders’ are listed at 32 3/8 inches. The short shuttle will be big for for him. If he runs it in the 4.5’s — that’s Seattle’s ball-park.

R3 (#85) — L.J. Collier (DE, TCU)
Collier is a fantastic prospect. I’d bang the table for him. He stood out at the Senior Bowl. Right off the bat in practise #1 he drove Dalton Risner to the turf and it set the tone for a fantastic week. He won with a bull rush, won with a speed rush. He used hand-technique to disengage, he extends his arms to keep his frame clean, he converted speed-to-power and showed a good dip and bend to attack the edge. On tape he consistently found a way to make splash plays. In the Bowl game against California he had this one play where he absorbed a double team then just powered his way through both blockers to hammer the running back for a four-yard loss on a stretch run. He has nearly 35-inch arms and an 81 1/4 inch wingspan which is freaky length for a 6-2 lineman. We’ll need to see how he tests at the combine but if the Seahawks can’t get a pass rusher with their first pick — Collier could be a great alternative here.

R4 (#118) — Jamal Peters (CB, Mississippi State)
Last month Tony Pauline reported the Seahawks had interest in Peters. He has 33 1/8 inch arms and he’s 6-2 and 217lbs. He looks like a big, physical cornerback and his play matches the profile. He struggled for turnovers in college and it’s what likely keeps him on the board. He needs to learn to track the ball and find ways to impact games. That said, he’s a tough tackler and is willing to lay a hit. The Seahawks are likely to add a cornerback to the competition on day three.

R4 (#125) — Drew Sample (TE, Washington)
Sample had such a good Senior Bowl he might not actually last this far. He did everything well. In catching drills he showed an ability to get open over the middle. I didn’t see him drop a pass in any practise session. In the blocking drills the Raiders had the TE’s block on an island and he even excelled there which was extremely impressive. The Seahawks could do with adding a tight end with Will Dissly returning from injury and Nick Vannett one year away from free agency.

R5 (#148) — Khalil Hodge (LB, Buffalo)
Hodge put up huge numbers at Buffalo, collecting hundreds of tackles. He’s not a dynamic athlete capable of making rangy plays in coverage. However, he fills gaps well in the running game and can sprint to the sideline to lay a hit. There’s untapped potential with Hodge who has the kind of grit and leadership Seattle has targeted regularly. Tony Pauline reported at the Shrine Game that many in the league believe the Seahawks really like Hodge.

R5 (#149) — Alec Ingold (FB, Wisconsin)
Seattle’s offense is set up to feature a full back. They spent most of last season without one. They could put that right in 2019. There aren’t many orthodox full backs in college football but Ingold fits the bill. He’s exactly what you want from the position. He’s physical, he’s effective in short yardage situations, he has decent hands and special teams value. He had one crack-back block in the Senior Bowl that had Jon Gruden marching onto the field to give him a high-five. It won’t be a surprise if the Seahawks go after Ingold.

Full projection

R2 (#40) — Will Grier (QB, West Virginia)
R3 (#76) — Khalen Saunders (DT, Western Illinois)
R3 (#85) — L.J. Collier (DE, TCU)
R4 (#118) — Jamal Peters (CB, Mississippi State)
R4 (#125) — Drew Sample (TE, Washington)
R5 (#148) — Khalil Hodge (LB, Buffalo)
R5 (#149) — Alec Ingold (FB, Wisconsin)

What you’re getting from the class
Depth and competition at key areas on the defense — pass rush, defensive tackle, linebacker and cornerback. You’re getting day three value on offense with a tight end and full back who should be able to contribute quickly. The first pick isn’t an ‘impact’ player but it could be a vital addition considering Russell Wilson’s contract situation.

Players likely to be gone
We’ve talked a lot about Montez Sweat (EDGE), T.J. Hockenson (TE) and Kyler Murray (QB). Currently I’m not expecting any of those players to be available if Seattle trades down. Hockenson and Murray probably won’t make it to pick #21 let alone round two. Parris Campbell (WR) and Andre Dillard (T) could also be gone. We’ll see on Terry McLaurin (WR) too. I think at least 12 defensive linemen and two linebackers will go in round one.

Alternative options

The Seahawks appear set to lose K.J. Wright in free agency (he will get paid) and the future is unclear for Mychael Kendricks. Even if Kendricks avoids jail and is re-signed, they could do with more depth at the position. New Mexico State linebacker Terrill Hanks has an 80 1/2 inch wingspan and similar length to Wright. He had a terrific Senior Bowl with many comparing his performance to that of Darius Leonard a year ago. Hanks will need to prove he has the agility and speed for the next level at the combine. If he achieves that he could be an option for the Seahawks in round two.

Renell Wren is 6-4, 315lbs and reportedly runs a 4.85 and jumps a 34.5 inch vertical. He can also bench 430lbs and squat 600lbs. There aren’t many humans like Wren. He’s built like a tank. You’re always going to pay attention to an athlete like that. He’s being touted as a second or third round pick.

Chuma Edoga (T, USC) was outstanding at the Senior Bowl at left tackle and could be added to provide some quality tackle depth and long term security. He really looked the part in Mobile.

Lonnie Johnson (CB, Kentucky) had an impressive Senior Bowl and has the size (6-2, 220lbs) and arm length (32 1/4 inch arms) that the Seahawks like. Jim Nagy described Marquise Blair (S, Utah) as a ‘Seahawks’ type safety. He’s quick and hits like an absolute hammer. He might be a late round or UDFA target. Seattle reportedly took an interest in Terry Godwin (WR, Georgia) at the Shrine Game. He’s a former four-star recruit with a lot of potential.

Chris Lindstrom (G, Boston College) and Kalen McGary (T, Washington) both really impressed in Mobile. Both players are tough and physical with great attitude. Ben Powers (G, Oklahoma) showed well last week as did Bobby Okereke (LB, Stanford), Charles Omenihu (DE, Texas) and Byron Cowart (DE, Maryland).

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I want to be creative with these mocks. Offer something different. And with the Seahawks certain to move down from #21, I want to include trades.

Here’s the full projection in list form, with a breakdown of each pick below:

#1 Oakland (via ARI) — Kyler Murray (QB, Oklahoma)
#2 Denver (via SF) — Drew Lock (QB, Missouri)
#3 New York Jets — Nick Bosa (DE, Ohio State)
#4 Arizona (via OAK) — Quinnen Williams (DT, Alabama)
#5 Tampa Bay — Rashan Gary (DE, Michigan)
#6 Oakland (via NYG) — Clelin Ferrell (DE, Clemson)
#7 Jacksonville — Jeffery Simmons (DT, Mississippi State)
#8 Detroit — Christian Wilkins (DT, Clemson)
#9 Green Bay (via BUF) — Josh Allen (EDGE, Kentucky)
#10 San Francisco (via DEN) — Devin White (LB, LSU)
#11 Cincinnati — T.J. Hockenson (TE, Iowa)
#12 Buffalo (via GB) — Andre Dillard (T, Washington State)
#13 Miami — Dexter Lawrence (DT, Clemson)
#14 Atlanta — Ed Oliver (DT, Houston)
#15 Washington — Dwayne Haskins (QB, Ohio State)
#16 Carolina — Devin Bush (LB, Michigan)
#17 Cleveland — Marquise Brown (WR, Oklahoma)
#18 Minnesota — Cody Ford (T, Oklahoma)
#19 Tennessee — Jachai Polite (EDGE, Florida)
#20 Pittsburgh — Greedy Williams (CB, LSU)
#21 Buffalo (via SEA) — Jonah Williams (T, Alabama)
#22 Baltimore — Jawaan Taylor (T, Florida)
#23 Houston — Byron Murphy (CB, Washington)
#24 Oakland — Josh Jacobs (RB, Alabama)
#25 Philadelphia — Montez Sweat (EDGE, Mississippi State)
#26 Indianapolis — D.K. Metcalf (WR, Ole Miss)
#27 Oakland — Terry McLaurin (WR, Ohio State)
#28 LA Chargers — Irv Smith Jr (TE, Alabama)
#29 Kansas City — Jaylon Ferguson (EDGE, Louisiana Tech)
#30 Green Bay — Parris Campbell (WR, Ohio State)
#31 New England — Daniel Jones (QB, Duke)
#32 Pittsburgh (via LAR) — Deebo Samuel (WR, South Carolina)

First round positional breakdown

Quarterbacks — 4
Running backs — 1
Wide receivers — 5
Tight ends — 2
Offensive linemen — 4
Defensive linemen — 12
Linebackers — 2
Cornerbacks — 2
Safety’s — 0

#1 Oakland trades up and selects Kyler Murray (QB, Oklahoma)
The Raiders trade Derek Carr before the draft to the Giants. And with a bevvy of picks, they make sure they get their replacement by jumping from #4 to #1. Murray is the most talented player in the draft.

#2 Denver trades up and selects Drew Lock (QB, Missouri)
This is very early for Lock. However, reports suggest John Elway really likes him. And waiting until #10 could be dangerous. The 49ers will be motivated to trade down so it could make sense for both parties.

#3 New York Jets — Nick Bosa (DE, Ohio State)
Nick, just like brother Joey, falls to a lucky team owning the #3 pick.

#4 Arizona trades down and selects Quinnen Williams (DT, Alabama)
The Cardinals move down three spots and get one of the top defensive linemen.

#5 Tampa Bay — Rashan Gary (DE, Michigan)
A former #1 national recruit — teams will love Gary’s upside and he’ll go very early.

#6 Oakland trades Derek Carr and selects Clelin Ferrell (DE, Clemson)
The Raiders move Carr to the Giants for their top pick. They then go and add a much needed edge rusher.

#7 Jacksonville — Jeffery Simmons (DT, Mississippi State)
The Jags sign a veteran QB (Joe Flacco? Nick Foles?) and then draft a replacement for Marcell Dareus.

#8 Detroit — Christian Wilkins (DT, Clemson)
A genuine top-10 talent with great character and athleticism.

#9 The Packers trade up to select Josh Allen (LB, Kentucky)
Green Bay trades with Buffalo to move up and get a fantastic scheme fit for their 3-4.

#10 The 49ers trade down and select Devin White (LB, LSU)
San Fran swaps #2 for #10 and selects a cornerstone defender and leader.

#11 Cincinnati — T.J. Hockenson (TE, Iowa)
He’s a complete tight end and an X-factor in the passing game.

#12 The Bills trade down and select Andre Dillard (T, Washington State)
The Bills drop three spots and start to build around their young quarterback.

#13 Miami — Dexter Lawrence (DT, Clemson)
The Dolphins are starting their rebuild in the trenches.

#14 Atlanta — Ed Oliver (DT, Houston)
Ed Oliver is a wonderful talent. But what’s his fit at the next level?

#15 Washington — Dwayne Haskins (QB, Ohio State)
I think he’s a bit overrated and might last longer than people think.

#16 Carolina — Devin Bush (LB, Michigan)
The Panthers wait for round two to get a safety.

#17 Cleveland — Marquise Brown (WR, Oklahoma)
Of course the Browns will troll the Steelers by drafting Antonio’s cousin.

#18 Minnesota — Cody Ford (T, Oklahoma)
Ford has superb feet and agility for his size.

#19 Tennessee — Jachai Polite (EDGE, Florida)
Polite’s motor never stops and he could go earlier than this.

#20 Pittsburgh — Greedy Williams (CB, LSU)
Williams is slightly overrated and will last longer than people think.

#21 The Bills trade up and select Jonah Williams (T, Alabama)
The Bills acquire a third rounder for trading down from #9 to #12. They give it to the Seahawks to draft Williams and convert him to center.

#22 Baltimore — Jawaan Taylor (T, Florida)
His best fit at the next level is probably at guard.

#23 Houston — Byron Murphy (CB, Washington)
The Texans address their biggest need in round one.

#24 Oakland — Josh Jacobs (RB, Alabama)
The Raiders need two things — pass rush and offensive playmakers.

#25 Philadelphia — Montez Sweat (EDGE, Mississippi State)
The Eagles love to draft for the lines and might need to replace Brandon Graham.

#26 Indianapolis — D.K. Metcalf (WR, Ole Miss)
He has everything physically but there are medical concerns and he drops too many passes.

#27 Oakland — Terry McLaurin (WR, Ohio State)
Jon Gruden had a look in his eye when talking to McLaurin at the Senior Bowl.

#28 LA Chargers — Irv Smith Jr (TE, Alabama)
They don’t have a ton of needs so can add a weapon here.

#29 Kansas City — Jaylon Ferguson (EDGE, Louisiana Tech)
He didn’t have an amazing Senior Bowl but the raw talent is there.

#30 Green Bay — Parris Campbell (WR, Ohio State)
They need more playmakers and Campbell is the real deal.

#31 New England — Daniel Jones (QB, Duke)
They’ve been planning ahead at QB for a long time.

#32 The Steelers trade up and select Deebo Samuel (WR, South Carolina)
After dealing Antonio Brown, the Steelers move up from #36 to secure a replacement.

Trades breakdown

Oakland (#4) trading up with Arizona (#1) to select Kyler Murray
I think the Cardinals will look to trade down. If the Raiders trade Derek Carr before the draft they might want the insurance of guaranteeing his replacement at #1.

The New York Giants trade #6 for Derek Carr
The Giants want to win now and see the 27-year-old Carr as a better shot to do that than grooming a rookie.

Denver (#10) trading up with San Francisco (#2) to select Drew Lock
Clearly this is very early for Drew Lock. I wouldn’t make this move personally. Yet there’s reported strong interest from the Broncos in him. They could be aggressive and the Niners will definitely want to trade down.

Green Bay (#12) trading up with Buffalo (#9) to select Josh Allen
This is a deal that works for both parties. Allen is an ideal fit in the 3-4 scheme Green Bay uses. They jump ahead of the Niners (in the market for an EDGE rusher). The Bills move down a few spots and get the best left tackle in the draft.

Buffalo (#40) trading up with Seattle (#21) to select Jonah Williams
The Seahawks might not want to drop 19 spots. However, if a team actually wants to trade up badly enough it’s a way to pad out your draft board. In this mock draft the Bills acquire the 75th pick from Green Bay for trading down from #9 to #12. So they’re comfortable giving the Seahawks one of their two third round picks. The Bills also own two fourth round picks and two fifth round picks. So they have the stock to make a deal and not do too much damage to their own draft board. The Seahawks get a third, fourth and fifth for dropping 19 spots. The Bills move ahead of Baltimore to draft Alabama’s Jonah Williams to develop as a center or guard.

San Francisco trades #36 for Antonio Brown
This is only a first round projection but I have the Steelers trading up to #32 and need to explain why. I have the 49ers trading the #36 overall pick to Pittsburgh for Antonio Brown.

Pittsburgh (#36) trading up with the Rams (#32) to select Deebo Samuel
With the Steelers having moved on from Antonio Brown they need a wide receiver. With several leaving the board at the end of day one, Pittsburgh moves up a few spots to get Samuel.

Seattle’s options in this scenario

I’ve deliberately not done a round two projection. I wanted to talk about options, not single out one player for the Seahawks.

It’d be an interesting position to be in. It would illustrate Pete Carroll’s stance this off-season. They don’t have any glaring needs. They want to add competition.

A lot of the players we’ve talked about during the draft process are off the board. There’s no T.J. Hockenson or Montez Sweat. Terry McLaurin and some of the other receivers are gone. Most of the top defensive linemen are off the board.

They’d be left to let the board come to them. Who are the best players available? Where can they best add competition? And while I do think there’s a scenario where the Seahawks move down and still address arguably their biggest need (front seven on defense) — I can also envisage a situation like this where they’re having to go BPA.

So what direction could they go in?

I think the Seahawks like their safety’s more than the fans do and won’t feel that’s a position to target with their first pick. It’s not a good year at the position anyway, although you would expect Johnathan Abram and Taylor Rapp to be off the board reasonably quickly on day two.

New Mexico State linebacker Terrill Hanks could be a possible option. It’ll depend a lot on his combine. How quick is he? How does he do in the agility tests? He earned rave reviews at the Senior Bowl for his ability in coverage and his speed. He’s well sized at 6-2 and 234lbs with 33 5/8 inch arms and a huge 80 1/2 inch wingspan. Hanks has longer arms than offensive tackles like Andre Dillard, Max Scharping, Kaleb McGary and Chuma Edoga.

One of the things they loved about K.J. Wright was his length. Wright has nearly 35-inch arms and an 80-inch wingspan. They’re not going to take a linebacker in round two based purely on length. If Hanks has a great combine he could be on their radar.

He’s already being compared to Darius Leonard — last years big riser after the Senior Bowl. It might be a lazy comparison based purely on position. Leonard was the #36 pick in 2018. We’ll see if Hanks gets into a similar range but some are starting to believe he will.

There are intriguing O-line options remaining including Kaleb McGary, Greg Little and several others. The run on receivers at the end of round one has left that position a little dry and it’s the same for the tight ends. Drew Sample in this situation would be a better target later on (in a similar range to the Will Dissly pick a year ago).

Renell Wren has the size, length and explosive athletic profile to provide some intrigue as an interior D-line option. There are still pass rushers available including D’Andre Walker, Brian Burns and Zach Allen.

One player I’m really starting to like is Western Illinois defensive tackle Khalen Saunders. More on him in a moment. I’m not sure it’s that unrealistic that he could work his way into the second or third round.

We really need the combine to shed some light. The Seahawks don’t draft average athletes with their first pick. Whoever it is will have strong positional traits.

What is clear is they’ll almost certainly trade down. They’ll want to add some depth to the defensive front seven. I think they will identify a quarterback to draft. They’ll want competition in the secondary and they’ll likely look to add at the skill positions and possibly the offensive line.

I think there’s a chance the likes of Will Grier (QB), L.J. Collier (DE), Jamal Peters (CB), Drew Sample (TE), Chuma Edoga (T) and Khalil Hodge (LB) could be possible targets after the first pick. I’ve been compiling a list of potential targets and why I think they might interest the Seahawks. I’ll publish it in an article soon and update it after the combine.

I wanted to end by reflecting on two players I’ve been watching in the last 24 hours.

Preston Williams (WR, Colorado State)
Sometimes you watch a player for the first time and you instantly sit up and take notice. That’s what you get with Preston Williams. He’s an outstanding talent at receiver. He’s 6-4 and 210lbs and plays up to his size. However, he is so gifted at getting open. Give him a free release and it’s over. Even against top opponents like Florida — if you don’t get your hands on him you’ll get beat. If you get into him he competes and fights to get open. He competes for the ball in the air, makes improbable catches and can equally provide a downfield speed threat or the savviness to get open at the intermediate or short range level through sheer quickness. Reportedly there are serious character concerns with Williams and some teams won’t have him on their boards. It’ll be a real waste if he allows red flags to ruin his career. He has top-level potential and could be a major force in the NFL.

Khalen Saunders (DT, Western Illinois)
Saunders was a star at the Senior Bowl and I wanted to see if I could find some Western Illinois games to see him in college. Saunders has the kind of ‘wow’ factor you want to see from small-school players. He flat out dominated at times. Saunders shows the power to physically bully linemen when engaged (sometimes simply tossing them to the ground) but he also has fantastic quickness to shoot gaps, swim away from blocks and burst into the backfield. He lacks length (6-0, 320lbs, 32 3/8 arms, 78 1/2 wingspan) but that probably helps in terms of leverage. I’m fascinated to see what he does at the combine (if invited). He’s an exciting player with the range to be a strong run defender and a pass rusher.

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I think there’s a strong chance the Seahawks will draft a quarterback this year. I discussed the reasons in yesterday’s thoughts and predictions piece.

Here’s the Cliffs Notes version:

— Russell Wilson and the Seahawks appear destined for a long-running contract saga

— Wilson can earn a fully guaranteed $110m between 2020-2022 if he’s willing to embrace the same tactic as Kirk Cousins and play on multiple franchise tags

— The Seahawks can realistically tag Wilson until 2021 but after that, the cost would be so high they’d either need a deal or they’d be forced to let Wilson become a free agent

— That means they have a two-year window to get a deal done and/or prepare for the worst case scenario of losing Wilson

— It’s not much but acquiring a quarterback they have faith in could present some form of leverage in a year or two by placing the onus on Wilson to decide how badly he wants to stay in Seattle (eg — ‘do you want to be here and compromise on a deal because if not we like this other guy and we’ll start him and trade you‘)

I think the Seahawks are well aware of this situation and are actively working to identify quarterbacks they like. Good teams plan ahead. There’s a chance they’ll come to a long-term agreement with Wilson. I suspect all parties want that to happen so it’s a good starting point. You still have to prepare for the other possibility.

John Schneider attended several high-profile pro-days a year ago specifically to look at quarterbacks (Sam Darnold, Josh Allen). He was spotted keenly observing the quarterbacks at the Senior Bowl. He attended the Oklahoma vs West Virginia game featuring two big name college QB’s.

In 2017 the Seahawks were also heavily linked to interest in Patrick Mahomes.

Revisiting the Mahomes speculation led me to this quote by Schneider before the 2017 draft:

“I’ve always thought you have to have one in the chamber and have a guy who is getting ready, and it just hasn’t gone that way for us.”

These are all reasons why I’m looking at the quarterback class this year.

I’d already watched all of Kyler Murray’s games as a starter in 2018. I believe he’s the most talented player in the 2019 draft. I think he’s a strong candidate to be a top-10 pick if not the top selection. There’s already talk that the New York Giants won’t draft Murray due to his lack of size. If Murray falls, that’ll be why. If he drops into range for the Seahawks I think there’s a relatively decent chance they will consider selecting him.

If Murray is gone, who else is there?

I started by watching Auburn’s Jarrett Stidham. He gained relatively positive reviews for his performance during Senior Bowl practises. He has good size, a strong arm and a year ago was considered a potential first round pick.

Auburn struggled in 2018 across the board. As a consequence Stidham struggled. His completion percentage dropped by five percent, he threw for only 2794 yards and Auburn finished the regular season with a 7-5 record.

It was said Stidham didn’t take the next step. He actually threw for the same number of touchdowns in 2017 and 2018 (18) and had one fewer interception. With Auburn struggling however, Stidham never really managed to elevate his stock.

I started by watching the 2017 film. Auburn beat Alabama in the Iron Bowl and reached the SEC Championship game. Stidham moved the ball well, managed the game and had enough arm strength to test a top defense. He was fairly solid. I then watched two more 2017 games and two 2018 games.

It’s extremely difficult to get a proper read on what he’s capable of. The Auburn offense doesn’t place a great demand on the QB. It’s a lot of quick passes, one-read throws and plays called by the sideline after seeing the defensive formation. There’s very little evidence of intermediate throws, multiple progressions, improvisation or touch downfield. When it’s time to take a shot they take a shot. When it’s time to throw a screen they throw a screen.

One thing that did show up was Stidham taking too many hits. This was a problem in the Senior Bowl game too. He had a turnover via fumble because he held onto the ball too long and shortly after took another unnecessary sack. It’s slightly concerning. Is he used to having things on a plate? When he has to make reads and think on his feet can he do it or is he going to keep getting hammered in the backfield?

Someone will take a shot on his arm talent. It might be in the middle rounds or it could be day three. I’m not convinced that team will be the Seahawks.

The second quarterback I watched this week (and third in total) was West Virginia’s Will Grier.

I was pretty interested in this. I figured John Schneider attended the Oklahoma vs West Virginia game primarily to watch Kyler Murray. I’d started to wonder whether it was actually a chance to see two high-profile quarterbacks — with one player perhaps more securable than the other.

Based on my study of Grier I do think there’s a somewhat decent chance the Seahawks are interested in him.

One thing that kept showing up was Grier’s accuracy on deep passes. Time and time again Grier would make extremely accurate throws on go-routes and big shots downfield.

A good example of this is his performance against Tennessee:

It’s actually an excellent performance across the board. Grier extends plays, throws at all levels with accuracy and velocity, shows great composure and finished the game with five touchdowns and 429 yards. In particular though, focus on the throws at 2:55, 3:35 and 4:00. His touch and ability to throw deep passes with accuracy is very much in the Seahawks ballpark.

Pete Carroll wants explosive plays. As much as he wants to be physical and run the ball, he also wants the passing game to be a threat downfield. Grier’s ability to throw with accuracy and get big chunk yardage fits their mantra.

This kept showing up again and again so I did some digging to see if there were stats to emphasise the point. PFF noted after his 2017 season how effective he was throwing the deep pass, acknowledging only three other college quarterbacks (including Baker Mayfield) received a better grade than Grier when throwing downfield:

“Grier targeted a fly route on 17 percent of his pass attempts (79 attempts), averaged a whopping depth of target of 29.5 yards and accumulated 1,102 of his total passing yards. Speaking specifically to those three routes targeted over 20 yards downfield, Grier had a passer rating above the NCAA average on all three of them, including a 100.1 passer rating on ‘go’ routes.”

He wasn’t just throwing to one fantastic speedy receiver either:

The Mountaineers were an equal-opportune receiving corps in 2017 as Grier (and Chris Chugunov in relief) targeted four recievers on at least 26 deep shots. Ka’raun White (509 deep receiving yards), David Sills (477) and Gary Jennings (432) all finished within the top 26 in terms of most deep receiving yards by a wide receiver. No other FBS team had three receivers to finish in the top 45 of deep receiving yards.

So what about the 2018 season? Grier ranked #1 among Senior Bowl quarterbacks for yards per completion (14.53 YPC). Kyler Murray was the top ranked quarterback overall (16.77 YPC). In comparison, Dwayne Haskins was only the 32nd ranked quarterback for YPC (12.95).

Maybe it’s a coincidence John Schneider went to watch Murray vs Grier. Or maybe there’s something in it?

At the end of the 2018 season PFF published a piece called ‘best at everything’. It was a breakdown of every position or unit and named a player that succeeded in a certain aspect of play (eg best player to run a hitch route, best swim move, best box safety).

Grier was ranked #1 for throwing the go-route:

No college quarterback throws a better go route than Grier, a trend that has continued from a season ago. He leads the nation with 1,207 yards and 24 big-time throws on go routes, doing so without throwing a turnover-worthy pass. In total, he’s completed 35 of 68 go routes for 17 touchdowns, averaging a hefty 24.2 yards downfield per target, routinely leading his receivers so well that they’ve gained 32.8 percent of his passing yards after the catch.

He was also named the best quarterback at handling a defensive blitz:

Grier has read and diagnosed blitzes this year better than any other quarterback. When the defense sends extra rushers, he’s completed 85 of 124 passes for 1,303 yards and a remarkable 22 touchdowns against no interceptions. His 14 big-time throws against the blitz lead the country, as do his touchdowns — as he’s been able to find soft spots and holes in coverages despite extra blitzing defenders coming at him.

Grier does have some limitations. His throwing technique is far from textbook. He doesn’t have a rocket arm and sometimes it seems he compensates on his technique to acquire extra velocity. There’s good and bad on tape. He took way too many sacks in the Iowa State game for example.

However, this is the second best throw I saw in 2018 after Kyler’s Murray’s impossible deep-ball touchdown while on the run against Alabama:

With the game on the line Will Grier lead West Virginia to a crazy win over Texas! pic.twitter.com/8BFflMRlWJ

— Athlete Swag (@AthleteSwag) November 4, 2018

Assuming Murray isn’t available to the Seahawks and with a firm belief there’s a strong chance they’ll draft a quarterback at some stage — I think Grier could be a guy they look at. His ability to throw with accuracy downfield and make big plays fits what they look for. If he can gain arm strength and spend some time adjusting to a pro-scheme — there is potential to work with.

If the Seahawks trade down from #21 and acquire an extra third round pick, it wouldn’t be a big surprise if they used it on Grier if he’s available.

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Everything I think about the forthcoming off-season in one post…

KJ Wright will get big money somewhere else

There are teams with millions to spend. Indianapolis has $115m in cap space for 2019. The Jets have $96m. Buffalo $80m. Oakland $74m. If someone is willing to pay Zach Brown $8m a year, Benardick McKinney $10m a year and Alex Ogletree $11m a year — someone will pay to add Wright. Yes he missed a lot of the 2018 season through injury. If you have $115m in cap space, you don’t worry too much about that. Not when you’re adding the consummate professional with years of production. Wright will get paid and Seattle will be priced out.

The Seahawks won’t make a free agency splash

A lot of people are talking about Seattle’s cap space. It’s currently set at about $55m for 2019. That’ll rise because they’ll save money on Kam Chancellor’s contract. Here’s the reality though. Nearly $30m of that alone is going to go on Frank Clark’s contract extension or franchise tag plus the usual amount you need for injured reserve, the practise squad and a draft class. With only 47 players currently under contract for 2019, they simply don’t have the ability to go out and throw major money at a Jadeveon Clowney, Demarcus Lawrence or any of the other big names out there. They’ll need to be calculated, wait for the market to settle and seek value. It could be a very similar free agency to last year.

The priority will be retention not addition

I’m not sure Seahawks fans realise there’s a significant issue on the horizon. Russell Wilson, Bobby Wagner and Jarran Reed are all out of contract after the 2019 season. If Frank Clark receives the franchise tag, he too will be out of contract in 12 months time. The only way to guarantee you keep all three for 2020 or beyond is to have at least three signed to extensions before the end of this year. That’s a huge task. Clark will probably be the easiest to agree terms with. The tag plus the next contract Demarcus Lawrence signs will shape his market. The Seahawks will probably be open to making Wagner the highest paid linebacker in the league (Luke Kuechly only earns $12.3m a year). Reed is tricky because he’ll want to be paid as a 10.5 sack defensive tackle despite only having one year of production. And then there’s the pending Russell Wilson saga. There’s no doubt about it — the priority this year likely isn’t who they can add. It’s who they can keep. Re-signing three vital players in less than a year isn’t easy.

What happens with Russell Wilson?

The Seahawks will be highly motivated to get a deal done. If Wilson takes a franchise tag in 2020, the process starts where he can do so for 2021 and pocket $66m in fully guaranteed salary. That’s manageable to an extent. The year after though he’d be due $43m. At that point, he either agrees a new deal or he walks as a free agent. So the Seahawks likely have a two-year window to sort this out. We just don’t know what Wilson and his agent Mark Rodgers are thinking. A hostile and long-winded saga occurred last time Wilson and the Seahawks talked contract. Last time the Seahawks had some leverage because Wilson was only earning $1.5m in 2015 due to his third-round rookie contract. There’s no such leverage this time. Wilson can ask for $110m fully guaranteed until 2021 because that’s what the tag will pay him. The Seahawks are unlikely to agree to that. This is destined to be the storyline that dominates Seattle sports for a considerable length of time.

They will seriously consider drafting a quarterback

As a right-minded and well run football team, they have to. Everything I said about the Wilson situation above is true. And if they can’t strike a deal in the next two years (a very real possibility) — they have to be prepared for a scenario where Wilson leaves. A poorly run franchise would sleepwalk into that situation. They’d end up scrambling around in free agency, giving $20m to Sam Bradford and another $8m to Mike Glennon. They’d feel obliged to take a rookie QB in round one. Just look at the mess the Cardinals are in because they failed to plan for the inevitable end of the Carson Palmer era. The Seahawks can at least work to avoid all of that by drafting or acquiring a quarterback as insurance. Someone they believe can start, eventually, in the league. Someone they can turn to if indeed Wilson departs. That’s not easy to find, especially outside of round one. But you have to try. You have to attempt to develop someone.

So is Wilson’s departure inevitable?

No, no no. Let’s make this clear. I’m not saying Wilson is off soon and the Seahawks need the next guy. I’m saying a well run team plans for it being a possibility. It’s why John Schneider attended every quarterback pro-day a year ago. It’s why he travelled to watch Oklahoma vs West Virginia in person. It’s why he was spotted closely watching the QB’s at the Senior Bowl. The Seahawks are looking for the next guy because they might need him. If anyone thinks that would be a wasted pick — you’re wrong. It’ll be one of the best and most reassuring picks they’ll ever make. Covering yourself at quarterback is never a bad idea. Especially with the forthcoming situation with Wilson’s contract.

Who could they draft?

That’s the difficult question. None of the Senior Bowl quarterbacks were particularly impressive. That makes it more likely Kyler Murray goes early, plus Dwayne Haskins. I’m currently running through the QB class to form proper opinions on all of the players. I’m starting with Jarrett Stidham. His 2018 tape was mixed (like Auburn’s season) but he played very well in 2017 with a highlight performance in a key win against Alabama. A final quick point on Murray. I love the guy. I think he’s the most talented player in the draft. But he’s 5-9 and it’d be naive to think that won’t matter to some teams. So while I think he should (and will) go in the top-10 — just be ready if he falls.

Anthony Barr will be interesting

If there’s one player in particular I think they might look at in free agency it’s Barr. He’s their type of athlete. He’s 6-5, 255lbs with 34 inch arms. He ran a 1.57 10-yard split. He ran a 4.19 short shuttle and a 6.82 three-cone. He’s explosive with a 34.5-inch vertical and a 10-5 broad jump. For whatever reason Barr’s career in Minnesota stalled. He’s never had more than four sacks in a season featuring mostly at linebacker. He would probably benefit from a fresh start. It’s hard to predict what his market will be like. He may still get decent money and thus the Seahawks could be priced out. Yet if there’s a potential Michael Bennett/Cliff Avril type ‘prove-it deal’ candidate out there, I think it might be Barr. Sign him to a good-not-great one or two year deal. Promise him more pass-rush opportunities. Let him go after a big contract in the future.

They will trade down from #21

It’s inevitable. They only have four draft picks. They need more. They could trade down multiple times. Last year a move from #18 to #27 netted a third and sixth round pick. A similar trade down about nine or ten spots should net the same return. From that point they could move down again. They’ll probably be looking for 6-8 picks at least. I get the feeling they might see this as a draft where it’s worth having a fair amount of day-three stock. It feels like that type of class. If they do move down and acquire an extra third round pick — that could be an area where they target a quarterback.

Forward planning could be important

Aside from needing to think long-term at quarterback (just in case) they also need to think about the future of the offensive line (Germain Ifedi is a free agent after 2019) and at receiver (how many more years does Doug Baldwin want to play?). Clark and Reed have expiring contracts on the D-line. Duane Brown is 34 in August. Some of these issues don’t need to be addressed with early picks but extra depth, competition and forward planning could be a priority.

They like their safety’s more than you do

It’s common to see the Seahawks paired with a safety in mock drafts. It’s a rotten year for the safety position. As Bob McGinn notes: “This class of safeties lacks quality and quantity.” It seems unlikely that’s what Seattle will do with their first pick. Regardless, I think Pete Carroll likes his guys. Bradley McDougald has developed into a key player. Tedric Thompson is only a one-year starter. Carroll was quick to praise Delano Hill at the end of the season. Hill was playing very well before getting injured pre-playoffs. The Seahawks were very lucky to be in a position to draft Earl Thomas and benefit from his talents for many years. Let’s not forget though — Philadelphia traded above them in 2010 and we all thought it was for Thomas (it ended up being for Brandon Graham). They were extremely close to never having Earl Thomas. They wouldn’t have found a similar player in 2011, 2012, 2013. Any subsequent draft. There is a world for Carroll without an Earl-level safety in his defense. I think he’s pretty comfortable moving on and thinks highly of the guys he has. Could they add more competition? Sure. But probably not in the early rounds.

Earl Thomas is done in Seattle

This is almost as inevitable as the ‘trading down from #21’ thought. We all know it. Earl Thomas will be moving on in the off-season — quite possibly to the Cowboys. We’ll never know what motivated this decision. It’s probably something to do with the injuries. But the Seahawks were willing to part ways with Earl a year ago and now it will happen in free agency. It’s just a bit strange they weren’t able to work a deal in 2018 to avoid losing him for nothing more than a possible compensatory pick.

Mychal Kendricks will re-sign

I’m not a legal expert but I do think it’s unlikely Pete Carroll would’ve talked so openly about bringing Kendricks back if he didn’t have some indication that a jail term is unlikely. And it’s very likely that Carroll has communicated with informed individuals on this situation.

They’ll keep D.J. Fluker & J.R. Sweezy

Neither player will be expensive. Both players loved playing in Seattle in 2018. Pete Carroll said several times he wants to keep them both. He even told me when I asked in London that he sees them as part of the ‘new core’. It doesn’t mean they’ll get long-term deals and be seen as multi-year fixtures. But they’ll be back in 2019. It’s a no-brainer.

The first draft pick won’t necessarily be a D-liner

I made a mistake at the start of the off-season. I kept saying Seattle’s first pick would be a pass rusher. I still think it’s their biggest need. But I’ve spent time studying the class and I think there’s a very real prospect that they look elsewhere with their first pick. Once they’ve traded down from #21 — possibly into the early second round — a lot of the defensive linemen will be off the board. There could be a scenario where the strength at that point could be receiver, tight end, linebacker or offensive line. Plus there’s enough good D-line depth this year that they could wait on the position. I’m taking a more open mind going forward. Their biggest need is more pass rush but their first pick could be one of many different positions.

Washington trio make an impression

Congratulations to three players from the state of Washington for the way they performed at the Senior Bowl. Andre Dillard, Drew Sample and Kaleb McGary were all excellent and among the best players in Mobile. It’d be fun to see any of the three playing for the Seahawks.

Montez Sweat in the top-10? Not so fast

I rate Montez Sweat. There aren’t many players with his length, quickness and pass-rushing skill set. It’s very possibly he could be a high pick — especially if he has a great combine. However, there are still questions to be answered about his departure from Michigan State. He’s inconsistent and showed that again in Mobile. On day one he had that great rep against Tytus Howard but then he had some rough moments on day three. In the game itself he had a great first quarter but was handled the rest of the way. Sweat will appear in the top-20 in pretty much every mock draft you see this week. I still think he could be in play for Seattle when they pick — even if they trade down.

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— None of the quarterbacks were particularly impressive. Certainly nobody performed like Josh Allen a year ago. He really elevated his stock with the way he played in the game. Drew Lock spent the day checking down. Will Grier floated passes and was lucky on a couple of throws not to turn the ball over. Trace McSorley was off-target and inaccurate. Gardner Minshew also missed on many throws and appeared limited physically. Daniel Jones holds the ball far too long. Jarrett Stidham took an avoidable sack (leading to a fumble). Tyree Jackson had some decent throws but also had an ugly turnover. Ryan Finley was fine. It seems like Lock is the most highly regarded of the group with Stidham being a possible mid-round wildcard. Even so — the big winners today were Kyler Murray and Dwayne Haskins.

— USC’s Chuma Edoga and Washington’s Kaleb McGary were excellent at tackle. Edoga, as he did in practise, flashed terrific balance and agility. His hand-use was good. He handled Montez Sweat on a run play and kicked out into space on a stretch run. Edoga is incredibly intriguing with the skills and athleticism to compete in the NFL. McGary was really terrific again and surely leaves the Senior Bowl as one of the big winners. He was awesome in this game — moving people in the running game, appearing in complete control and handling his duties in pass-pro. He’ll need to go through rigorous health-checks at the combine (he has had heart issues in the past) but all being well he’s a lock for day two of the draft.

— Washington’s Drew Sample and Boston College’s Chris Lindstrom also impressed. Sample caught every pass thrown his way — none were easy. We know he can block but this week Sample also showed he can get open and has soft hands. He’s a very interesting player who had a great week in Mobile. Lindstrom was very convincing at right guard. On one play in the fourth quarter he progressed to the second level with ease and absolutely destroyed a linebacker. Lindstrom is tough and has the same level of composure as Kaleb McGary. Big performance today.

— Montez Sweat is officially an enigma. At times he looks the part of a high pick — then he just disappears or is easily handled. That happened during the college season and was evident again here. Early in the game he showed great closing speed to the QB when he was left unblocked on a handful of bootlegs. He had a good rush vs Max Scharping early on and blew up Tommy Sweeney on a run call. This all happened in the first quarter. After that he struggled to make an impact and was being handled with relative ease by the tackles as the game wore on. Teams may look at his length and quickness and be willing to take him very early in the draft. However, it feels like he still has plenty of questions to answer about his play on the field and his departure from Michigan State.

— Khalen Saunders was a big winner this week. He recorded a huge sack in the game, swimming by the Ole Miss left guard and flashing amazing quickness to break into the backfield and hammer the quarterback. His mobility at his weight is very impressive and it’ll be interesting to see how he runs at the combine. On this evidence he’ll start to creep into the third round range.

— Miami safety Jaquon Johnson closed quickly throughout the game and had an excellent play vs the run in the first half — identifying the call and flying to the ball carrier for a TFL.

— Terry McLaurin didn’t have any big chunk plays but he again showed great quickness, suddenness and was constantly getting open. He had a great catch on a floaty flea-flicker from Daniel Jones. He did also drop a ball he should’ve caught in the red zone. McLaurin is a complete receiver with blocking skills and special teams ability to match his dynamic athleticism. I think people are seriously underestimating his stock after this week in Mobile.

— Some other quick notes — Jaylon Ferguson had a nice rep against Max Scharping and had a sack on one of Daniel Jones’ ‘holds the ball too long’ moments. Ryquell Armstead is tough and finishes runs. Kingsley Keke made plays throughout the practise week and was a force again in the game. Zach Allen didn’t have any impact plays as a pass rusher but blocked a PAT. Elgton Jenkins is a powerful center with a great frame and length. L.J. Collier did as much as anyone to improve his stock this week and he had a good performance in the game. Wisconsin full back Alex Ingold had a massive block on an end-around that had Jon Gruden marching onto the field for a high-five. As a former unbeaten wrestling star in High School (45-0) — Ingold could be a Seahawks target.

If you missed the article discussing the Russell Wilson contract situation and why Seattle might need to draft a quarterback early this year, click here.

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Russell Wilson’s contract situation is about to become a long-winded and frustrating saga that could dominate the off-season and beyond.

Here’s why…

1. His 2015 deal set a precedent

The Seahawks and Wilson last began negotiating a contract extension after the Super Bowl loss to the Patriots. A deal was expected to be a formality. Other quarterbacks like Cam Newton had set the market. Wilson was due a base salary of only $1.5m in 2015 because he was still on a third-round rookie contract.

Everything was set up. Wilson no doubt sought proper financial compensation having reached two Super Bowls (winning one). The Seahawks wanted to keep a young franchise quarterback. The market had already provided the parameters for a deal.

And yet it took months for an extension to be agreed.

Instead of a formality it ended up being a long, protracted saga — played out through the media. Who knows exactly what Wilson and his agent, Mark Rodgers, had hoped to achieve? Rodgers came from a baseball background. Maybe he wanted a baseball-style contract with hefty guarantees? Maybe even a fully guaranteed contract? We’ll never know. Who can blame them for taking a shot?

Whatever was discussed — a relative stalemate occurred. And the thing that likely ended the stalemate was time. Wilson and his team wanted a deal before training camp for obvious reasons. A serious injury would’ve severely impacted his earning potential. The pressure was on to ensure Wilson didn’t miss out on his second contract — and the first lucrative deal of his career.

After a long wait a four-year $87.6m contract was finally agreed with $61.5m guaranteed.

The Seahawks in this situation had the upper hand. Wilson, as a third round pick, was not earning a fortune as a rookie. He needed a deal before the season began.

That won’t be the case in 2019.

2. Why the odds are stacked against Seattle

Wilson is now one of the richest and most successful NFL players in the league. Furthermore, he’s married to an incredibly wealthy and successful woman — forming a celebrity power couple.

His base salary in 2019 is $17m — not $1.5m. There’s simply no financial pressure to get a deal done this time.

Adding to this is the Kirk Cousins situation. Previously the franchise tag was seen as a hindrance to players. It was a way to get a nice lump sum (guaranteed) for a years work — yet the lack of long term security was seen as a problem. Cousins completely changed the perception of the tag. He gambled on his own health and performance and made considerably more than most other quarterbacks by playing on the franchise tag year after year. And when the increasing cost became too rich for the Redskins — they allowed Cousins to test the open market.

Cousins had his cake and ate it.

Someone else is going to follow his lead at some point. Considering how Wilson and Rodgers approached their last negotiation, they could be the ones to try and emulate Cousins. In 2015 they signed the deal right before training camp. This year, they could be the ones making a final demand of the Seahawks. And if the team won’t meet those demands — they’ll likely feel very comfortable playing for $17m in Wilson’s final season before anticipating the franchise tag.

If this happens — there’ll be little motivation for Wilson to do anything the following year either. Keep accumulating tags. Brady Henderson notes in this article how much he’d be set to earn:

Based on the 120 percent rule used to calculate franchise-tag values, the cost to tag Wilson would be $30.34 million (120 percent of Wilson’s scheduled 2019 cap number) in 2020 and then $36.41 million (120 percent of $30.34 million) in 2021.

Unless the Seahawks were willing to top those numbers and offer Wilson $36-38m per year on a long extension, why would he sign? He’d be getting $67m for two years work. Remember, his existing contract only contained $61.5m in total guarantees.

A third year on the tag would cost $43m. Under the current cap that wouldn’t be manageable. Who knows where the NFL will be in 2022? At the moment, however, that would likely be the point where Wilson tests the market. Just as Cousins did.

The Seahawks have no leverage in these talks. The only card they can play is an appreciation for Wilson, familiarity and the success they’ve so far enjoyed together. With tens of millions at stake that doesn’t seem sufficient.

Wilson and Rodgers can turn to the Seahawks and lay out three numbers: $30m, $36m, $43m. Annual figures all guaranteed with three franchise tags.

There’s simply no serious incentive for Wilson to take anything Seattle offers that doesn’t compare favourably to what he can get, fully guaranteed, under the tag. It’s not just the cap hit we’re talking about here. Three franchise tags equals about $110m fully guaranteed for three extra seasons.

So Mark Rodgers, Russell Wilson and whoever else is involved in talks will likely say they want a fully guaranteed contract worth the average of the three tags combined. And they’d be well within their rights to ask for it too.

3. How can the Seahawks gain any kind of leverage?

It’s really, really simple…

Draft another quarterback.

Not a seventh round pick either. Someone who they can realistically point to in a negotiation.

This is why I believe John Schneider has been so active in appearing at different quarterback pro-days in the last two years. I suspect he has been anticipating this impasse. And while there’s been online chatter that the Seahawks might trade Wilson as a point of philosophy or cost-saving — I think the reality is quite simple. They know they need a bargaining chip and some insurance and they knew the potential contract storm that was brewing.

This is why I’ve written about Kyler Murray and the Seahawks. Murray is an exceptional talent. He’s arguably the most talented player in the entire 2019 draft class. He’s accurate, has a rocket arm, makes the impossible possible, is elusive and a threat as a runner. He’s a sensational prospect. The only problem for some is he’s 5-9 and not a conventional pro-QB.

Schneider was in West Virginia to watch the Mountaineers play Oklahoma. I’m convinced he wanted to get a closer look at Murray (even if that wasn’t the sole aim for the trip).

Let’s imagine a scenario where the Seahawks draft Murray with their first pick in the draft (whenever that might be after they inevitably trade down). The reaction by the media and some fans will be to freak out. Does it mean they’re going to trade Wilson? Why have they wasted a pick? Why didn’t they draft a defensive lineman?

In reality, this would be the smartest and most logical business move the Seahawks have possibly ever made. And it’s without doubt the only way they’ll gain any kind of leverage in contract talks with Wilson and Rodgers.

Drafting Murray would allow the Seahawks to turn to Wilson at some point in the next two years and say it’s time to get serious. We’ve drafted Kyler Murray and we’re prepared to start him and trade you to another team. So how badly do you want to be a Seahawk? Do you want a legacy in this city? Do you want to be a one-team quarterback? Do you want to stay in this setting, with this front office and coaching staff? Or do you want to go somewhere else where the Head Coach doesn’t necessarily value improvisation? Or it might be a dumpster fire of a franchise or a lousy market.

They can tell Wilson and Rodgers it’s time for a compromise. Time to work out a deal that works for both parties. Or it’s time to move on.

Suddenly the onus is back on Wilson. The Seahawks can finally shoot their shot. And they can do so with confidence, knowing they won’t be left scrambling around to draft a rookie quarterback or sign whichever version of Sam Bradford is out of contract.

That’s how they gain some kind of leverage.

And there’s nothing — not one scenario — that is a negative after that happens.

a.) Wilson signs an extension and you either keep Murray as a backup or you trade him — just like the New England Patriots did with Jimmy Garoppolo.

b.) You trade Wilson for picks and name Murray your starter.

You could argue it’d be an expensive price to pay to win a negotiating battle with your starting quarterback. I’d argue it’d be one of the best moves this franchise ever made. They’d be covering their backs against a worst-case scenario of Wilson departing and they’d give themselves a better chance to extend Wilson’s contract by actually having a bargaining angle.

That’s why I’d draft Kyler Murray given the opportunity. Not to necessarily replace Wilson — but to potentially help keep him. And if that can’t happen well you might as well have an ultra dynamic player like Murray waiting in the wings.

4. If this is such a big problem why not just trade Wilson now?

Because you actually have to go through the process. Anything else is putting the cart before the horse.

You need to actually have the contract talks. Take part in the negotiations. Set deadlines. Identify compromise. Make ground.

When you’re talking about multi-million dollar contracts, these things take time. And the Seahawks and Wilson actually have to go through the motions a little here. Plus you also have to give each other the chance to get a deal done. If you give up on talks after a month and move on — that just seems like a situation you might end up living to regret.

It’s far better to strengthen your hand in negotiations and exhaust all eventualities than simply give up before giving the two parties any realistic chance to come together.

Is it impossible they consider trading Wilson this off-season? It’s highly unlikely and improbable. Jason La Canfora did note in September, however, that it could be a possibility:

“The Seahawks clearly still have ample time to work something out with the perennial All-Pro, though the months following the 2018 season will certainly bring the matter to a head. Going year-to-year on the franchise tag, especially for an elite quarterback in his prime, is less than ideal. Allowing Wilson to enter the final year of his contract at a time when contracts continue to soar and the cap continues to increase significantly (and could so even more with a wave of gambling-related revenue on top of the now-massive streaming rights) is risky, and Wilson’s trade value would be at its peak next winter, with some general managers I spoke to believing Wilson could fetch potentially three first-round picks in return.”

This report was made before Wilson had a career season and led the team on a playoff run. It’s fair to assume if this was a consideration in September it’s almost certainly less of a consideration now.

5. Does it have to be Kyler Murray?

It doesn’t. Observers in Mobile noted John Schneider was paying close attention to the quarterbacks at the Senior Bowl. There may be other players they’re interested in — potentially in the second or third round range.

There’s also a very reasonable chance Murray goes in the top-10 and isn’t even a remote option for Seattle.

The reason I keep bringing Murray up, however, is he’s such an outstanding prospect. It’s hard to even consider going from Russell Wilson to a non-spectacular quarterback. Will Grier and Ryan Finley don’t get the juices flowing in quite the same way.

Don’t take my word for it on Murray either. Here’s what Bob McGinn’s scouting sources had to say about him:

“I don’t know what you do with a guy that’s 5-9 but he is something special,” said one scout. “He would be a shorter version of Patrick Mahomes. He can be that special. He’d probably run like a 4.4 something. He’s a better football player than Baker Mayfield because he runs so well.

“He can be going full speed left or right and throw the ball the length of the field. I haven’t really broken him down yet because I figure he’s going to play baseball. But you go ‘wow, wow, wow!’ when you watch him. I wouldn’t want to defend him.

“The amazing thing is his arm strength. He’s accurate, too. He’s the closest thing I’ve seen to Mahomes.”

Operating in the same system under coach Lincoln Riley, Murray posted an outrageous NFL passer rating of 141.5 while rushing for 892 yards (7.3) and 11 touchdowns in 2018 whereas Mayfield compiled a 137.9 rating while rushing for 311 (3.2) and five TDs in 2017.

“He’s a better player than Mayfield,” another scout said. “Is he a better pro prospect? Mayfield (6-0 ½, 215, 4.84) was taller. I think Murray has a stronger arm. He’s Doug Flutie with all the better skills.

“Murray reminds me of Michael Vick. Not that tall. This kid is as explosive or more explosive. He’s got more accuracy and more ability to run a pro team than Vick did early.”

The pending Wilson contract saga could be the defining storyline of the current off-season. It could drag into next off-season too. So be prepared for what’s coming.

If you missed the Seahawkers podcast this week, don’t forget to check it out. We discuss the Wilson contract situation, the Senior Bowl and the off-season in general:

Also check out our Senior Bowl practise review with notes on why Andre Dillard, Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel were the standout performers with honourable mentions for Washington duo Kaleb McGary and Drew Sample.

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— I’ve only been able to watch the practise sessions on the NFL Network and due to the weather, didn’t see any of Wednesday’s practise. Based on what I have been able to watch, the three best players in Mobile were — Andre Dillard, Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel.

— Terry McLaurin tied Texas cornerback Kris Boyd in knots on one rep — flashing a superb inside/out move before catching a fade over his shoulder in the redzone. On his third rep in the WR vs DB drill he ran a delightful slant and exploded off his break to create about five yards of separation. McLaurin is so sudden and explosive, consistently gets open with a mix of athleticism and savvy, he’s a consistent catcher and he doesn’t have any wasted movement. Jon Gruden was chatting to McLaurin near the end of the session and was looking at him like a proud father. He’ll run in the 4.3’s at the combine, jump a 40-inch vertical and finally he’ll get the grade he deserves. McLaurin looks like a second round pick at worst and could easily be Seattle’s first pick in the draft. He blocks, he has special teams value, he’s a difference-making athlete, he’s sudden, he competes for the ball. He’s exactly the type of player they love.

— Deebo Samuel is right alongside McLaurin with the way he has performed in Mobile. The South team started their session with some red zone drills. All of the receivers ran pretty basic in-cuts, slants or fades. Samuel saw it as an opportunity to show off a bit. He destroyed the DB’s on both of his reps with moves reminiscent of Doug Baldwin vs the Rams in 2016. After each rep he was barking ‘I win’. Samuel, like McLaurin, has just been on a different level to the defensive backs in Mobile. What a fantastic week for the pair — two of the absolute biggest winners at the Senior Bowl.

— Washington State’s Andre Dillard was getting first round buzz before Mobile but that was practically confirmed here. After a terrific performance on Tuesday and (reportedly) an even better display on Wednesday — Dillard capped things off with a dominating rep against Jaylon Ferguson today. It was men against boys stuff. Dillard controlled the block, Ferguson desperately tried to disengage but couldn’t. He was attempting a counter, he was trying to shake Dillard off. No dice. It was an outstanding display of finishing a block. It really feels like it’s no longer a question of whether Dillard goes in round one — it’s a case of how early could he go with teams always desperate for good pass-protecting left tackles.

— There’s been talk of Montez Sweat as a top-10 pick this week but we really didn’t see any evidence of that today. Sweat took his 1v1 reps against Elon’s Oli Udoh. It was a massacre. Udoh easily handled Sweat’s attempt at a bull rush then followed up by driving him into the turf on a speed rush. The two reps had the O-liners hooting and hollering. “Oh yeah baby” was yelled. Sweat clearly has appealing length and quickness. However, this was a big reminder that he still has a lot to work on and has to prove that he can be an every down EDGE at the next level and won’t be bullied by pro-linemen.

— George State’s Penny Hart had some eye-catching reps at receiver. He has absolutely zero wasted movement. He eats up a cushion with blistering speed and then just explodes away from defensive backs to create separation. There are some concerns about how he catches the ball and whether he’s a better athlete than receiver but this was an impressive showing from Hart today. Like McLaurin and Samuel, he’s incredibly ‘sudden’.

— Washington tight end Drew Sample had a good first day and again looked really good today. He handled himself in the blocking drills. The Raiders had the running backs and tight ends blocking on an island. That’s a difficult challenge for a tight end — often they’re playing inside out and have support from a tackle. Sample’s footwork, ability to plant and stick and his hand-placement was all on point. In the catching drills he consistently found ways to get open. He easily beat Nasir Adderley in one rep with a fluid route. Sample can be a factor at the next level as an all-round, classic tight end. He helped himself based on the two workouts made available for broadcast.

— Another Husky who’s really helped himself this week is Kaleb McGary. Without doubt, in my opinion, he’s been the top offensive line performer in Mobile after Andre Dillard. His first rep today came against John Cominsky of Charleston. McGary absorbed contact, got his hands into Cominsky’s frame and just dumped him into the turf. It was a dominant rep that had the coaches howling. On his second rep he walled off a speed rush from Charles Omenihu. The Raiders gave him three successive reps to test him out. The final attempt was a little ragged — he seemed to catch his feet a little and give up a pressure to Ben Banogu. Later in the session the Oakland coaches introduced a drill involving stunting defenders. Many of the prospects struggled with this except McGary. He passed his guy off inside and easily handled the player stunting outside. The coaches decided to move him to left tackle to see if he could thrive there and he gave up a pressure to Omenihu and didn’t look comfortable. Even so — he leaves Mobile as a big winner and any team wanting a starting right tackle is possibly thinking he’s a viable target in round two.

— Khalen Saunders looked highly athletic on Tuesday if a little raw. Today he looked like an absolute beast. In his first rep he stunned Chris Lindstrom with an amazing jolt to the chest, driving Lindstrom off balance. The Boston College guard recovered well and prevented a total disaster but it still goes down as a win for Saunders. Later on the pair had another battle and Saunders walked him into the backfield. He has exceptional size and quickness, tremendous strength. It won’t be a surprise if he’s worked himself into a third round grade by the end of the week.

— Oklahoma duo Ben Powers and Dru Samia both had really good weeks. They’re tough, physical and have exactly the type of attitude you want from your interior linemen. Powers is 6-4, 310lbs and has 34 1/8 inch arms. He barely put a foot wrong in any of his 1v1 reps. He had a superb rep against Kinglsey Keke today showing off balance, hand-placement and power. He plants the anchor very well. Samia wants to fight and scrap with everyone.

— Mississippi State center Elgton Jenkins came into the week seen as the top player at his position in the class. There’s no doubt now (unless you like Jonah Williams and think he projects to center — it’s amazing how he still gets marked in the top-10 as a tackle). Jenkins had two great reps against Dontavius Russell today.

— Jonathan Ledbetter struggled a bit in his two reps against Dennis Daley. Earlier in the week he refused to be blocked but in this instance Daley controlled him.

— Greg Gaines does a nice job driving into interior linemen and pushing them into the backfield. Unfortunately his lack of arm length and hand use is a problem. When he wins with leverage and gets the initial push, in every rep he stays blocked and can’t disengage. When he doesn’t get that initial victory, too often he can be handled by longer offensive linemen. Nobody can question his effort and he had some wins again today. His stock will be severely limited though as long as he’s unable to use his hands to swim/rip and create a clean route to the backfield or find a way to disengage and not just run into linemen. Gaines had one particularly ugly snap against Garrett Bradbury.

— Michael Deiter had a better day today in the 1v1’s but he, Dalton Risner, Max Scharping and Chris Lindstrom all looked a little lost on the stunt-drill. Lindstrom and Deiter didn’t do anything outstanding today but they looked particularly solid.

— Zach Allen again looked pretty average — failing to flash any speed or quickness off the edge. He has good size and length. His 2018 season was extremely good. You’re left wondering about his upside though and whether he’ll be able to create pressure at the next level.

— Renell Wren played with a lot more control in his reps but didn’t really flash on day three. That might be the way forward for him to be a more rounded player but it did eliminate some of the ‘wow’ factor today.

— Trace McSorley had a rough outing among the quarterbacks with several wayward passes. It’s been difficult to get a read on the QB’s this week. Based on the TV broadcasts it’s been tough to get a feel for any hierarchy among this group. It might’ve been a lot clearer to those watching in Mobile.

— There’s been very little evidence of Nasir Adderley being an early pick this week. He toiled in coverage against even the TE’s. Drew Sample easily beat him in one instance. ‘Draft twitter’ seemingly got a little carried away with Adderley. He isn’t a bad player by any stretch but talk of round one and running a 4.4 forty seems way off based on his Senior Bowl display.

— USC tackle Chuma Edoga has some talent and looked like a natural fit at left tackle.

— Travis Fulgham flashed with some nice red-zone routes, showing off some quickness and snap for his size. Fulgham will be one to watch if he gets a combine invite based on the athleticism he showed here. With nearly 35-inch arms and a 6-2, 210lbs frame — he looked good in Mobile.

If you missed it earlier, don’t forge to check out the Seahawkers Podcast. We talk in depth about the Senior Bowl and Seattle’s off-season in general.

Check it out below:

This week I was invited to be on the Seahawkers podcast. We get into a number of topics including the Senior Bowl and the Seahawks off-season in general.

Check it out…

Unfortunately due to bad weather in Mobile, the Senior Bowl practise on day two has been moved indoors. This means no live NFL Network coverage and no media presence. We’ll see if they show the 1v1’s and other highlights later.

In light of being unable to post practise notes, here’s a list of prospects I think might intrigue the Seahawks with their first pick. I’ve also been invited on the Seahawkers Podcast today so keep an eye out for that too.

Senior Bowl day one notes & measurements

Possible targets for Seattle

The Seahawks love traits. Just look at the players they’ve taken with their first draft pick in the past. In reverse order — Rashaad Penny, Malik McDowell, Germain Ifedi, Frank Clark, Paul Richardson, Christine Michael, Bruce Irvin, James Carpenter, Russell Okung. The list includes some of the all-time top combine performers, players with unique size and/or length and dynamic playmakers with X-factor athleticism.

They also spent first round picks on Earl Thomas, Percy Harvin and Jimmy Graham.

With that in mind, I wanted to run through some possible candidates to be their first pick in 2019 — based on upside and traits.

Montez Sweat (EDGE, Mississippi State)
Sweat combines unique length (35.5 inch arms, 84.5 inch wingspan) with great quickness and athleticism as a pass rusher. He’s 6-6 and 252lbs so a good size. There just aren’t many human’s with Sweat’s physical profile. By the end of the Senior Bowl he could be a top-20 lock based on what we’ve seen so far. If not (and there are some questions to be answered about his departure from Michigan State) he could/should be on Seattle’s radar.

Terry McLaurin (WR, Ohio State)
We’ve been discussing McLaurin on the blog for a while but get ready — because he’ll leave Mobile as one of the big winners this week. He dominated the 1v1 drills on day one. McLaurin is a sudden, exceptional athlete who easily creates separation at every level and is still capable of winning contested catches. He has special teams value and he’s willing to do this as a blocker. He’s a ‘Seahawks type’ receiver. He also has superb character, he interviews extremely well and he recorded an elite 141.96 SPARQ score in High School — running a 4.41 and achieving a 42-inch vertical. He could be Seattle’s first pick after they inevitably trade down.

Kyler Murray (QB, Oklahoma)
I think he’s the most talented player in the draft. And like Baker Mayfield, I suspect he could defy media predictions and be the #1 overall pick. Murray is a sensational downfield passer with great accuracy and arm strength. He’s adept at extending plays, making explosive throws and he’s the ultimate weapon when he breaks contain as a runner. The Seahawks are facing a showdown with Mark Rodgers, Russell Wilson’s agent. There’s no doubt the Seahawks will want to extend Wilson’s contract. It’ll be a tough negotiation though. Wilson’s best bargaining chip is a lack of an alternative. ‘If you’re not paying me $35-40m a year, what are you going to do?’. Seattle’s best bargaining chip will be acquiring a talented quarterback so they can ask, ‘how badly do you want to stay here, because we have this guy now’. If Murray lasts into range, I’m not sure John Schneider will be able to resist such a talent.

T.J. Hockenson (TE, Iowa)
Hockenson’s stock is rising to the point he could end up being a top-15 lock by April. He’s an exceptional blocking tight end with an exquisite attitude and approach to his duties as an in-line TE. Hockenson is also a terrific athlete, capable of creating separation as a mismatch at the second level and also running downfield for deep shots. He high-points the ball, has great catching technique and has hardly any flaws. He’s the best tight end prospect to come into the league in a long time.

Parris Campbell (WR, Ohio State)
Another Ohio State target but this time a converted running back. Campbell is a Percy Harvin-type without any of the character concerns. He’s 6-1 and 208lbs and had a similar SPARQ workout to Terry McLaurin — running a 4.41 and jumping a 40 inch vertical. Campbell can take screens to the house, make chunk plays downfield and be a factor on sweeps and misdirection. He’s a modern-day weapon.

Devin Bush (LB, Michigan)
He’s not the biggest linebacker at a listed 5-11 and 233lbs but he’s the best bet to find a Mychal Kendricks type in this draft. A reminder — Kendricks was 5-11 and 239lbs at his combine in 2012. He ran a 4.47 forty, jumped a 37.5 inch vert and a 10-7 broad. He ran a 4.19 short shuttle and a 1.53 10-yard split. These are special numbers for the position. Bush has the quickness, explosive athleticism and physicality to think he could have a similar combine performance. If he does, he has to be on the radar.

Cody Ford (T, Oklahoma)
Ford is absolutely massive with a 6-4 and 338lbs frame. What makes him unique is despite this hulking size, his footwork is sensational. His ability to drop quickly and set with balance is rare for a man with his size. He might not have the length to be a full-on left tackle prospect at the next level but he could be a top-level guard. It won’t be a surprise if he nails the short shuttle and the mirror drill at the combine. Seattle likes size on the O-line. If Ford lasts into range, it won’t be a surprise if they like him.

Marquise Brown (WR, Oklahoma)
The cousin of Antonio Brown, Marquise just made play after play for Oklahoma in 2018 and was the perfect compliment to Kyler Murray. He has the speed to create separation downfield but also the quickness and savvy to settle into zones and provide an easy target. He’s a big play waiting to happen and has YAC potential too. It won’t be a surprise if a team like Buffalo tries to pair him with Josh Allen’s arm strength. The Browns could try and reunite Brown with Baker Mayfield. If he lasts into Seattle’s range, he’s the type of dynamic target they really like.

Rodney Anderson (RB, Oklahoma)
I don’t think there’s any chance the Seahawks take another running back early. However, I wanted to include Anderson here because he’s the forgotten man of this draft class. A knee injury ended his 2019 season early. Without it, there’s every chance he could’ve been a top-20 pick. He’s 6-1 and 220lbs and plays with fantastic explosion, power and speed. He’s a complete stud. At SPARQ he ran a 3.97 short shuttle — that’s insane agility at his size. He also jumped a 37-inch vertical. If the Seahawks weren’t stacked at running back, they’d surely be taking a long look at Anderson.

D.K. Metcalf (WR, Ole Miss)
It feels like Pete Carroll has been searching for a dynamic big receiver forever. The point is, they’re not just looking for a guy with size. They want the athleticism and length to go with it. Metcalf is 6-3 and 225lbs with long arms. He’s reportedly been timed in the 4.4’s and is capable of a 37.5 inch vertical and an 11-1 broad jump. Plus he can bench 330lbs and power clean 350lbs. Metcalf might last because of a serious neck injury that placed his career in doubt during the 2018 season. We’ll see how early teams are willing to roll the dice. The Seahawks might be willing to take a gamble if he’s available after they trade down.

Renell Wren (DT, Arizona State)
Wren is an absolute beast some of the time and occasionally an out-of-control liability. Tony Pauline believes he could land in round two so I’m going to include him on this list. Wren is built like a tank at 6-4, 315lbs. He has an 81-inch wingspan. Apparently he’s capable of a 4.85 forty, a 34.5 inch vertical and a 10-0 broad. He can also bench-press 430lbs and squat 600lbs. That’s a profile you can work with. Wren has some outstanding plays — shooting gaps, demolishing center’s. He also has plays where he’s too reckless, loses balance and is too-easily handled. You can teach technique and control. You can’t teach natural power and a 4.85 forty at 315lbs.

Kaleb McGary (T, Washington)
McGary measured at a massive 6-7 and 321lbs and was unquestionably one of the top performers on day one at the Senior Bowl. He was on a different level to the other offensive linemen. He won all his reps, appeared in complete control and his technique was generally on-point. The Seahawks like size up front. McGary also has a gritty backstory, the kind that often appeals to Seattle. Along with Greg Gaines and Terry McLaurin, McGary was a day-one star in Mobile.

Andre Dillard (T, Washington State)
As with T.J. Hockenson, Dillard’s stock is trending a certain way (into the top-20). His agility and ability to set is impressive. Whether it’s inside at guard or as a possible long-term fixture at tackle, Dillard could be an option if he lasts. He has 34-inch arms and an 80 1/8 inch wingspan. The Seahawks drafted the best run blocking tackle in 2011 (James Carpenter). Dillard would be the best pass protecting tackle in 2019. The way he tests at the combine will shed more light on his potential fit in Seattle.

There are others you could include and the combine will shed more light on potential targets. There’s no point listing players like Rashan Gary, Christian Wilkins and Jachai Polite because there’s barely any chance of them lasting to #21 — let alone lasting after a trade down. You could argue that’s the same for players like Kyler Murray, Marquise Brown and T.J. Hockenson. I think there’s less of a consensus belief that they’ll go early — even though I suspect all three will be gone in the top-20.

Jeffery Simmons is good enough to go in the top-10. He has Ndamukong Suh potential. If he doesn’t go in the top-10, it’ll be because of the High School incident. He seems like a reformed character but teams will still grill him about it at the combine. I no longer think he’ll last into Seattle’s range.

It won’t have gone unnoticed that there aren’t many defensive linemen or defensive backs listed above. The D-liners will go early and often and Seattle might be forced to wait on that area. Thankfully the depth is there. If players like Greg Gaines, L.J. Collier and Charles Omenihu continue to perform as they did on day one — it won’t be an issue. It’s a shame players like Gerald Willis III, D’Andre Walker and Christian Miller are unable to compete in Mobile.

Free agency will present some opportunities too. If Anthony Barr reaches the market, he’s the type of player (age, athletic profile, scheme) they could target. Others, like Darius Philon, could help the run defense. Hopefully they’ll save some money for an accomplished veteran kicker. I’ll be doing a piece on free agency next week.

The D-line dilemma will be a talking point going forward. With around 10 expected to go in round one and with Seattle destined to trade down (they won’t be picking only four times) they might miss the better options. It’d be frustrating given it’s arguably their biggest need. However, Pete Carroll was adamant at the end of the season they didn’t have any glaring voids. So they may feel they can address this issue one way or another and not feel handcuffed with their first pick.

As for the defensive backs — it’s not a good class at cornerback or safety. Waiting on both positions feels inevitable. Again, that’ll be fine with players like Jamal Peters and Marquise Blair potentially on the radar.

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If you missed yesterday’s Senior Bowl preview and thoughts on Parris Campbell, check it out here.

Day one notes

My main focus is the D-line vs O-line 1v1’s — the best bit of the Senior Bowl practise week. We get a couple of days of great 1v1’s here. So here are my notes…

Mississippi State center Elgton Jenkins won two battles against Dontavious Russell. Jenkins looks the part — good size and length. His hands are a little wide at times and he needs to lock inside and finish but he handled Russell fairly easily.

Kingsley Keke looked really good on two reps against the tough, physical Dru Samia. I’ve not watched much of Keke but this had me wanting to see more. Good quickness for his size, nice hand use to work free.

Jonathan Leadbetter isn’t the quickest but he looks great with ideal size and his hand use was good here too. He refused to be blocked on back-to-back reps against Dennis Daley. Leadbetter is talented. Can he run a decent 10-yard split? He has a pro-future.

Oklahoma guard Ben Powers handled Demarcus Christmas on back-to-back reps.

Oshane Ximines and Oli Udoh split two reps with both getting a win. Ximines’ first rep was laboured and Udoh handled him easily. Ximines did a lot better on the second go-around.

They paired Andre Dillard and Montez Sweat. Nice call, Niners coaches. Dillard over-set on the first step and gave up an inside pressure. Sweat tried the same move on the next rep which was a bit disappointing and Dillard read it and re-set better.

Daylon Mack, a late call up, had a couple of good reps.

Jaylon Ferguson looks really raw. He just ran straight into two reps with no real plan. The second time the tackle used his aggressive sprint against him and let him over pursue and land on the turf. It wasn’t a good look and highlighted how much technique work he needs.

The South session ended with Tytus Howard taking on Montez Sweat. Howard handled the speed rush initially but on the second rep ended up on his backside. His footwork and hand-use was appalling. It looked like he was dancing to Justin Timberlake, not attempting a block. Sweat jabbed him violently in the chest and sent him to the turf. It was a great rep for Sweat showing off his length and some power. It was an awful rep for Howard.

Watching the North receivers vs DB’s — Terry McLaurin was unstoppable and showed off the +140 SPARQ athleticism he has. He’s one of the most underrated players in this draft. Excellent quickness, playmaking, good technique. The star of the day for me.

Marquise Blair looks like a very smooth athlete at safety. Keep an eye on him. Drew Sample, the Washington tight end, also looks useful. He had a really good rep vs Darnell Savage. Blair and Sample lined up against each other. Blair won — but they’re a couple of players to keep on your radar.

Andy Isabella has too many wasted steps in his routes. On one rep Darnell Savage wiped him out as a consequence. He wastes his track speed by trying to do too much to get open. Trust your speed. It wasn’t a good first showing for Isabella who also had some drops.

The North DL vs OL drills were interesting with some surprises. Washington’s Greg Gaines had a terrific session, dominating most of his snaps and working to create pressure. He easily beat Garrett Bradbury on one rep, then beat Chris Lindstrom. It was a great performance from Gaines.

Husky team mate Kaleb McGary equally looked the part on the offensive side of the ball. He dominated Sutton Smith on two overmatched snaps but looked good against the big D-liners too. McGary appeared in complete control and oozed class. The best offensive linemen just execute in these sessions. Good footwork, don’t over-extend. Excellent work from McGary.

Michael Deiter had a poor performance which was disappointing. He was overmatched on one rep and didn’t exert his authority playing inside. He was occasionally struggling to cling on. It wasn’t a good display.

Zach Allen was also a disappointment. He bull-rushed Dalton Risner well on the first rep but after that just looked like an average athlete. No pop, no initial quickness, no counter. He was easily stoned on a couple of reps so they moved him from the left end position to the right. On his next snap he was twisted and sank to the turf. Not a good showing.

Max Scharping had a decent display at left tackle aside from one bad rep against Jalen Jelks. The Oregon pass rusher jolted him to the turf unexpectedly. It was a good rep for Jelks.

TCU’s L.J. Collier looked really twitchy and quick and was one of the big winners in the session.

Renell Wren beat Garrett Bradbury with a power move on his first rep then exploded into the backfield with a knifing rush on his second. Bradbury had his revenge on the third of Wren’s reps. There’s so much to like about Wren but he plays with a degree of recklessness.

For further analysis on the session I’d recommend listening to Tony Pauline’s podcast from Mobile.

Senior Bowl measurements

Quarterback hand size:

Drew Lock — 9
Trace McSorley — 9 1/8
Ryan Finley — 9 3/8
Jarrett Stidham — 9 3/8
Will Grier — 9 1/2
Daniel Jones — 9 3/4”
Tyree Jackson — 10
Gardner Minshew — 10 1/4

DeMarcus Christmas
Height: 6-3
Weight: 302
Arms: 32 1/4
Hands: 8 5/8
Wingspan: 78 1/4

Isaiah Buggs
Height: 6-2
Weight: 295
Arms: 30 7/8
Hands: 9
Wingspan: 75 1/8

BJ Autry
Height: 6-3
Weight: 351
Arms: 35 1/2
Hands: 9 1/2
Wingspan: 83 1/2

Ryquall Armstead
Height: 5-11
Weight: 223
Arms: 30 1/2
Hands: 9 1/2
Wingspan: 72 1/4

Bruce Anderson
Height: 5-11
Weight: 209
Arms: 32 1/8
Hands: 9
Wingspan: 76 3/4

Johnathan Abram
Height: 5-11
Weight: 205
Arms: 31 1/8
Hands: 9 1/2
Wingspan: 74 1/4

Andre Dillard
Height: 6-4
Weight: 310
Arms: 34
Hands: 9 5/8
Wingspan: 80 1/8

Jaylon Ferguson
Height: 6-4
Weight: 256
Arms: 34 1/4
Hands: 8 1/2
Wingspan: 80 3/4

Elgton Jenkins
Height: 6-4
Weight: 314
Arms: 34 1/4
Hands: 10
Wingspan: 82 1/8

Tyree Jackson
Height: 6-7
Weight: 249
Arms: 35
Hands: 10
Wingspan: 82 1/2

Jalen Hurd
Height: 6-4
Weight: 227
Arms: 32 1/4
Hands: 10 1/8
Wingspan: 77 1/4

Will Grier
Height: 6-2
Weight: 218
Arms: 31 1/2
Hands: 9 1/2
Wingspan: 74 5/8

Anthony Johnson
Height: 6-2
Weight: 211
Arms: 31 3/8
Hands: 9
Wingspan: 75 1/4

Isaiah Johnson
Height: 6-2
Weight: 207
Arms: 33 5/8
Hands: 8 1/4
Wingspan: 78 5/8

Jaquan Johnson
Height: 5-10
Weight: 186
Arms: 30 1/4
Hands: 8 3/4
Wingspan: 72 3/4

Jonathan Ledbetter
Height: 6-3
Weight: 271
Arms: 34 1/4
Hands: 9 3/4
Wingspan: 80

Gardner Minshew
Height: 6-1
Weight: 224
Arms: 31 1/4
Hands: 10 1/4
Wingspan: 73 5/8

Daylon Mack
Height: 6-1
Weight: 327
Arms: 32
Hands: 10 1/8
Wingspan: 75 3/4

Hunter Renfrow
Height: 5-10
Weight: 175
Arms: 29
Hands: 7 3/4
Wingspan: 70

Dontavious Russell
Height: 6-3
Weight: 319
Arms: 32
Hands: 9 1/8
Wingspan: 77 1/1

Dru Samia
Height: 6-5
Weight: 304
Arms: 33 1/8
Hands: 10
Wingspan: 80

Deebo Samuel
Height: 5-11
Weight: 216
Arms: 32 1/2
Hands: 10 1/8
Wingspan: 74 1/2

David Sills
Height: 6-3
Weight: 210
Arms: 32
Hands: 8 7/8
Wingspan: 75 1/2

Jarrett Stidham
Height: 6-2
Weight: 214
Arms: 32 1/4
Hands: 9 3/8
Wingspan: 76 1/4

Montez Sweat
Height: 6-6
Weight: 252
Arms: 35 5/8
Hands: 9 7/8
Wingspan: 84 1/2

Juan Thornhill
Height: 6-0
Weight: 202
Arms: 31 1/2
Hands: 9
Wingspan: 74 1/2

Oli Udoh
Height: 6-5
Weight: 327
Arms: 36
Hands: 10
Wingspan: 85

Oshane Ximines
Height: 6-3
Weight: 241
Arms: 33 3/8
Hands: 9 3/8
Wingspan: 78 1/8

Rock Ya Sin
Height: 5-11
Weight: 189
Arms: 32 3/8
Hands: 9 3/4
Wingspan: 76 3/4

Nasir Adderley
Height: 5-11
Weight: 195
Arms: 30 3/4
Hands: 8 7/8
Wingspan: 74 1/2

Zach Allen
Height: 6-4
Weight: 280
Arms: 34 1/2
Hands: 10 1/4
Wingspan: 79

Ben Banogu
Height: 6-3
Weight: 247
Arms: 33 3/8
Hands: 8 1/2
Wingspan: 80 1/4

Marquise Blair
Height: 6-1
Weight: 180
Arms: 31 5/8
Hands: 8
Wingspan: 73 1/4

Kris Boyd
Height: 5-11
Weight: 195
Arms: 30 7/8
Hands: 8 7/8
Wingspan: 73 1/2

Garrett Bradbury
Height: 6-2
Weight: 304
Arms: 32 1/2
Hands: 10 5/8
Wingspan: 76 1/4

Te’Von Coney
Height: 6-0
Weight: 244
Arms: 32 3/4
Hands: 9 1/8
Wingspan: 77 1/4

Michael Deiter
Height: 6-5
Weight: 304
Arms: 32 1/3
Hands: 11 1/8
Wingspan: 78 1/2

Ryan Finley
Height: 6-4
Weight: 208
Arms: 32 3/4
Hands: 9 3/8
Wingspan: 77

Greg Gaines
Height: 6-1
Weight: 307
Arms: 31 1/8
Hands: 9 3/8
Wingspan: 75 5/8

Andy Isabella
Height: 5-8
Weight: 186
Arms: 29 3/4
Hands: 8 1/2
Wingspan: 71

Jalen Jelks
Height: 6-5
Weight: 250
Arms: 33 7/8
Hands: 9 3/4
Wingspan: 82 5/8

Daniel Jones
Height: 6-5
Weight: 220
Arms: 33 1/4
Hands: 9 3/4
Wingspan: 78 1/4

Chris Lindstrom
Height: 6-3
Weight: 303
Arms: 34 1/8
Hands: 9 1/4
Wingspan: 79 3/4

Drew Lock
Height: 6-3
Weight: 223
Arms: 33 1/2
Hands: 9
Wingspan: 77 1/4

Kaleb McGary
Height: 6-6
Weight: 327
Arms: 33 5/8
Hands: 10 1/4
Wingspan: 79

Terry McLaurin
Height: 6-0
Weight: 205
Arms: 32
Hands: 9 1/8
Wingspan: 73 7/8

Trace McSorley
Height: 6-0
Weight: 200
Arms: 31 1/8
Hands: 9 1/8
Wingspan: 71 1/2

Anthony Nelson
Height: 6-6
Weight: 272
Arms: 34 3/4
Hands: 9 5/8
Wingspan: 83 1/4

Charles Omenihu
Height: 6-5
Weight: 274
Arms: 36 1/2
Hands: 9 1/2
Wingspan: 84 3/4

Germaine Pratt
Height: 6-4
Weight: 308
Arms: 34 1/4
Hands: 10 5/8
Wingspan: 74 7/8

Dalton Risner
Height: 6-4
Weight: 308
Arms: 34 1/4
Hands: 10 5/8
Wingspan: 81

Drew Sample
Height: 6-4
Weight: 250
Arms: 33 1/2
Hands: 9 3/4
Wingspan: 79 1/8

Khalen Saunders
Height: 6-0
Weight: 320
Arms: 32 3/8
Hands: 8 7/8
Wingspan: 78 1/2

Darnell Savage
Height: 5-11
Weight: 199
Arms: 30 5/8
Hands: 9
Wingspan: 74 1/4

Max Scharping
Height: 6-5
Weight: 320
Arms: 33 3/4
Hands: 9 3/4
Wingspan: 79

Cameron Smith
Height: 6-2
Weight: 230
Arms: 32 1/8
Hands: 10 1/8
Wingspan: 76 1/2

Jaylen Smith
Height: 6-2
Weight: 221
Arms: 33 5/8
Hands: 8 3/8
Wingspan: 79 1/8

Sutton Smith
Height: 6-0
Weight: 234
Arms: 30 5/8
Hands: 9
Wingspan: 73 1/2

Renell Wren
Height: 6-4
Weight: 315
Arms: 33 3/4
Hands: 9 7/8
Wingspan: 81

L.J. Collier
Height: 6-2
Weight: 280
Arms: 34 6/8
Hands: 9
Wingspan: 81 1/4

Tytus Howard
Height: 6-5
Weight: 322
Arms: 34 3/4
Hands: 10 5/8
Wingspan: 79 3/8

Bobby Okereke
Height: 6-1
Weight: 231
Arms: 34 3/4
Hands: 10 1/8
Wingspan: 82 5/8

Ben Powers
Height: 6-4
Weight: 310
Arms: 34 1/8
Hands: 9 5/8
Wingspan: 81 1/4

It’s very good news for Montez Sweat. He’s 252lbs which is where he needs to be. Not too light, exceptional height and length. He has to be on Seattle’s radar.

Gardner Minshew could be a big riser here if he has a good week. That hand size is pretty significant given he’s not the biggest. He can work his way into the day-two conversation with a big Senior Bowl. He needs to show an ability to drive the ball downfield. Mobile is a king-maker at QB.

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