Month: January 2019 (Page 3 of 3)

The start of the Seahawks off-season article

What happens next? How much cap room have they got? What is the strength of the draft? And why is perspective needed on the Dallas loss?

Time to get into it. Here are some of the key points going into the off-season…

1. They have limited cap room

The Seahawks are currently projected to have $60m in cap space in 2019. That’s seventh most in the NFL. And it’s a red herring.

Seattle has only 34 contracted players for 2019, the lowest number in the league. The Colts, with a league-high $122m to spend, have 41 contracted players. It means that while the Seahawks have some money to spend, a fair portion of it will need to be spent filling out the roster.

They can create cap space by parting with Kam Chancellor. There was no financial gain to be had here in 2018. It would’ve actually cost them an extra $5m. In 2019 the situation is different. They’ll save $2.8m ($13m cap hit and $10.2m in dead money).

They’ll also save $2.75m if they cut Jaron Brown. Barkevious Mingo would save $3.3m (they might prefer to spend that on K.J. Wright and/or Mychal Kendricks).

The $60m quickly shrinks when you consider they’ll pay to keep Frank Clark. The franchise tag cost $17.143m for a defensive end in 2018. They may decide to use the transition tag ($14.2m cost in 2018) which would give the Seahawks an opportunity to match any offer made to Clark.

The Seahawks don’t have a good history with transition tags, however.

Such a move would allow Clark to set his own market though. It’d be a calculated gamble. The Chicago Bears used the transition tag on Kyle Fuller this year. It paid off as a tactic — he agreed a four-year, $56m extension two months later. He was able to set his market and then come to an agreement with the Bears.

For the purpose of this piece, let’s use the most expensive scenario — an $18m franchise tag. So wipe away $18m from the $60m projected cap space for 2019. You always need to save about $7-10m for the draft and injured reserve.

This leaves approximately $30-35m for any further moves.

I asked Pete Carroll in London whether he intends to keep J.R. Sweezy and D.J. Fluker. His answer was a resounding ‘yes’. They also have big calls to make on K.J. Wright, Mychal Kendricks and Justin Coleman.

Jordan Simmons, David Moore and Austin Calitro are ERFA’s and will likely be kept. They’ll have a decision to make on Malik Turner and Akeem King (also both ERFA’s).

George Fant is a restricted free agent and seems almost certain to be retained. Joey Hunt, Quinton Jefferson, J.D McKissic, Branden Jackson and Tyler Ott are also RFA’s. Do the Seahawks tag them or try to negotiate separate, cheaper deals?

Shamar Stephen, Dion Jordan, Mike Davis and Brett Hundley are free agents you’ll either need to retain or replace.

Take all this into account and it won’t leave much money to spend.

A realistic expectation is a repeat of a year ago. Calculated moves in the second and third wave of free agency. A big splurge, however, does not seem likely.

2. They only have four draft picks

The Duane Brown trade (second rounder), Brett Hundley trade (sixth rounder) and Shalom Luani trade (7th rounder) has left the Seahawks with a league-low four draft picks. They are not expected to gain any further comp picks either.

What does this likely mean? Trading down again.

The Seahawks will own either the 21st or 22nd overall pick depending on the result of the Eagles vs Bears game. A year ago they traded down from #18 to #27, collecting a third and sixth round pick in the process. It’s fair to imagine they’ll work on trying to find a similar deal this year.

3. What are the strengths of the draft?

It’s an incredible year for defensive linemen. One of Bob McGinn’s scouting sources is quoted as saying, “I’ve never seen anything like it.”

Nick Bosa, Quinnen Williams, Clelin Ferrell, Rashan Gary, Dexter Lawrence, Ed Oliver and Christian Wilkins will likely go early. It’s possible Derrick Brown, Jachai Polite, Raekwon Davis, Josh Allen, Zach Allen and Jaylon Ferguson go early too. That’s how good this class is for defensive linemen.

The list doesn’t stop there.

Jeffery Simmons has top-15 talent but could last due to an off-field incident dating back to High School. Brian Burns and Montez Sweat are long and quick but there are concerns about their ability to play early downs vs the run. D’Andre Walker is underrated while Dre’Mont Jones, Jabari Zuniga and Jerry Tillery are names to monitor.

The depth will easily stretch into the late first or early second round.

4. Could this impact free agency?

Possibly. With the price of defensive linemen growing year after year, we could see a regression in 2019. Teams might be prepared to play the draft class against the veteran free agents. The top players (Lawrence, Clowney, Clark) will still get paid. The next tier of players might be left frustrated.

The Seahawks need a player or two to buy into the Michael Bennett/Cliff Avril approach from 2013. Short term prove-it deals. Seattle has an advantage here. Although they’ll have to pay Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner top money, Seattle’s only other pending 2020 free agents are players like Nick Vannett and Barkevious Mingo (assuming they extend Frank Clark and Jarran Reed).

If a player like Anthony Barr, for example, ends up with a cold market — he might opt for a prove-it deal. And the Seahawks can say to any player in that situation — we’ll have the 2020 money to pay and keep you if you perform. They kept both Bennett and Avril in a similar situation.

Another option for the Seahawks could be to try and sign an ageing veteran. Cameron Wake, Brandon Graham, Clay Matthews and Terrell Suggs are all free agents in the off-season. All could be available at a reasonable price on a short-term basis.

5. Is it a good draft class for defensive backs?

It’s an uninspiring cornerback class and the safety group is even worse. Bob McGinn’s sources note: “This class of safeties lacks quality and quantity.”

Johnathan Abram — a hard hitting former Georgia DB who transferred to Mississippi State — is considered the best safety prospect and only a second round prospect. Alabama’s Deionte Thompson gets a lot of hype but he has limitations. One of McGinn’s sources says: “I’ve watched all the Alabama tapes and I can’t grade him… I don’t see the guy doing things.”

A high pick at safety seems highly unlikely given the class. Tony Pauline has reported strong interest from the Seahawks in tall, physical cornerback Jamal Peters of Mississippi State. He looks like a prototype for Pete Carroll’s defense and could be a target in rounds 3-4.

6. What are the keys to the off-season?

Here are five potential priorities:

1. More pass rush
2. More speed
3. Keep building the culture
4. Improve the depth
5. Build on the experience of 2018

In terms of improving the roster, the main priority could be finding more playmakers on defense.

Here’s why:

Seattle’s defense is a well organised, properly coached unit with togetherness and spirit. They will need more than just Frank Clark, Jarran Reed, Bobby Wagner and Bradley McDougald to become a top-tier unit.

The encouraging thing is how well Jacob Martin played in his handful of snaps. It hints towards a bright future. It also might be that he works best in a limited role. We’ll find out over the next year or two.

The graph also highlights how well Quinton Jefferson contributed and it’s a shame Dion Jordan couldn’t have a greater impact.

They still need more. Whether it’s on the D-line or among the defensive backs, they need 3-4 more names to get among the group of four in the top right corner of the graph.

7. Please, let’s not do this for eight months

A lot of Seahawks fans have decided the loss yesterday was down to an unwillingness to adjust. The Cowboys did an excellent job shutting down the run, so why didn’t the Seahawks just cut Russell Wilson loose? Perhaps, as some believe, like they did in Carolina against the Panthers?

A few quick points here…

The Seahawks struggled to run the ball in Carolina and trailed by three points at half time. The deficit was four points against the Cowboys. To start the second half against the Panthers, Seattle ran the ball three straight times. Then they hit a 54-yard deep pass on 3rd and 12. They followed up with two more runs before scoring on a red zone throw to Tyler Lockett.

On the following drive, they started by running the ball three out of five times.

They only really turned to Wilson when they trailed by seven points with less than seven minutes left in the game.

It’s not true that a major adjustment occurred early in the second half against Carolina. They continued to run and play for manageable third downs.

They turned to the pass right at the end of the game when they needed to press. They still required a low percentage deep-shot on fourth down to result in a touchdown, a missed field goal by Graham Gano and some Wilson-to-Lockett magic to win the game.

The approach in Carolina was actually very similar to the approach in Dallas. Keep it tight, try and take it down to the final possession. The Seahawks would’ve been in the same position had they managed to stop Dallas on their final scoring drive to give Wilson the ball back. Instead, they had back-breaking pass interference penalties on third down and gave up a 3rd and 14 run by Dak Prescott.

Pete Carroll’s approach — and it is his approach despite all the grief directed at his offensive coordinator — helped get this team to the playoffs against the odds. It helped regain a productive running game and helped Russell Wilson put up career-best numbers. It helped win in Carolina and at home against the Packers, Chiefs and Vikings. It helped this team compete against the Rams — twice.

Here’s the perspective for Carroll’s philosophy. There’s a reason very few people predicted the Seahawks would go to the playoffs. The roster, really, isn’t as good as some have maybe started to believe. Not yet, anyway. It’s young and growing.

The Seahawks spent a season playing a style that would help them be competitive. It enabled them to stick in games where, arguably, they otherwise would’ve struggled. And with a quarterback very capable of finding a way to win at the end — taking it down to a final possession worked on multiple occasions in the regular season.

If Wilson had the football in the fourth quarter with two minutes on the clock and a six-point deficit, there’s a decent chance they would’ve beaten the Cowboys.

Seattle’s defense is 3-4 quality players short and was exposed in some games. The protection was extremely suspect when they focused on the pass in weeks one and two.

The style, the approach — it’s probably designed on purpose to suit the players on the roster and cover up weaknesses.

In Dallas, they played their way. Just as they have all season.

They came up short. That’s football.

8. No, they don’t need to fire anybody

Sports fans always need someone to be accountable when things don’t work out. The strange thing is, things did work out for the Seahawks this year.

They got to the playoffs in a year with modest external expectations. That’s a success. They were energised, entertaining and had some good wins mixed in with some frustrating losses.

In a reset year, this was a strong showing.

The key now is to add more talent, add more depth and get better. Not start overhauling the staff and roster again.

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Instant reaction: Seattle’s season ends in Dallas

The Seahawks travelled to Dallas with belief, hope and an ambition to make an entertaining season, improbably, a Championship one.

Sadly, they didn’t play anywhere near well enough to win a playoff game on the road.

The Cowboys were more physical, dominated the line of scrimmage and thoroughly deserved to win.

Their defense played with the same intensity that shut down Drew Brees and the Saints. They took away the run, made the Seahawks play to their tune and Dallas were the ones dictating the tempo of the game.

Every time the Seahawks tried to establish momentum, the Cowboys took it away:

1. Seattle kicks a field goal for a 6-3 lead before half time. Moments later, Dallas races downfield to lead 10-6.

2. Seattle scores a touchdown and converts a two-pointer for a 14-10 lead. Dallas races downfield to lead 17-14 at the start of the fourth quarter.

3. K.J. Wright intercepts a pass in the end zone. Seattle followed with two offensive penalties, went three-and-out and kicked back to Dallas. A long drive ensued, with Dak Prescott’s 16-yard run on 3rd and 14 essentially the game-winner.

Before the game if you’d said the Seahawks would win the turnover battle and make several explosive plays to Tyler Lockett — it’d sound like a winning formula.

They didn’t win because unlike most of the season — Seattle was dominated physically at the LOS. Dallas ran for 164 yards and completely shut down Seattle’s running game (73 yards). The Seahawks were made to earn everything. Even their big plays — the shots to Tyler Lockett, the fourth down to Doug Baldwin, the K.J. Wright interception — all required a supreme level of talent to get the better of an inspired Dallas team.

On the other hand, Seattle had errors and will rue missed opportunities.

They kept it close because they nearly always do. Yet the Cowboys played better and deserved to win.

It was a disappointing end to a season that still achieved two things:

1. Everyone moved on. Any ill-feeling or concern about big names departing was all but extinguished. The Seahawks needed a fresh start.

2. People can genuinely look forward to what’s next. I’m not sure that was possible the last two years. The end felt like it was coming. Then it came, at least for some popular players.

The Seahawks now embark on a post-season looking for ways to take the next step. In 2013 it meant trading for Percy Harvin and signing Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril. Whether the Seahawks can be that bold remains to be seen. They’ll have limited cap space and only four draft picks.

So what is next?

For starters they have to keep the new core together. Frank Clark will either receive a contract extension or the franchise tag. Jarran Reed has earned an extension. Re-signing J.R. Sweezy and D.J. Fluker will be a priority. There are big calls to make on K.J. Wright (who played brilliantly), Justin Coleman and Mychal Kendricks (depending on his legal situation).

They’ll need to find some value in free agency. They won’t have the big dollars to spend. It’ll mean more calculated moves, akin to 12 months ago. The second and third wave of free agency will likely be their target area.

They will own the 21st overall pick if the Eagles beat the Bears tomorrow. Otherwise, they own the 22nd overall pick. It’s an exceptional draft class for defensive linemen. It’s nowhere near as strong at safety and cornerback.

They need to add more key players to the young defense. Are there veterans who can come in and compliment Clark, Reed, Bobby Wagner and Bradley McDougald? Can they find one or two more dynamic pass rushers? Can they find someone to make some plays in the secondary?

Can they acquire more speed? The league is getting quicker and more explosive every year. It’s not an amazing class for receivers in round one but there will be options from day two onwards that include fast, explosive pass-catchers. Can they get quicker in the front seven on defense or in the secondary?

Here are five potential priorities:

1. More pass rush
2. More speed
3. Keep building the culture
4. Improve the depth
5. Build on the experience of 2018

That’s how I see it. Feel free to add your own suggestions in the comments section.

We’ll start looking ahead to the draft and free agency options immediately this week.

The 2012 season showed that a fun season can lead to a Championship season. That’s the hope Seahawks fans can carry into the off-season. This roster clearly isn’t as loaded as it was in 2012 and there’s a lot more work to do than there was six years ago. It does feel, however, that the team is connected again and heading in the right direction. Even if tonight was a bitter ending to a promising season.

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Arizona should take Kyler Murray with the top pick

If I were the Cardinals, I’d be letting Kyler Murray’s people know we’d consider taking him with the #1 overall pick.

Yes, Arizona drafted Josh Rosen a year ago. Yes, it’s too early to make an accurate judgement on his ability to develop into a franchise quarterback.

However, the Cardinals job doesn’t appear to be particularly appealing. They struggled to replace Bruce Arians last year and were the last team to fill their coaching vacancy.

Is it any more attractive 12 months on?

Mike McCarthy turned down an interview. So did Eric Bieniemy.

There are lots of things to consider. Are you going to get time? Steve Wilks didn’t. It’s not a franchise known for big spending or high ambition to win. Is there some potential on the roster or are they justified in earning the #1 pick?

You’re also hanging your future on the development (and success) of Rosen.

Let’s not forget, he was the fourth quarterback selected in 2018 (after Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and Josh Allen). There were mixed feelings about him going into the 2018 draft. He had his suitors, of course. But a lot of decision makers were lukewarm to him.

It’s very possible coaches like McCarthy and Bieniemy don’t want to put their reputations in the hands of a quarterback they don’t believe in.

Murray, for me, is the real deal. I’ve written a lot about him over the last few weeks. I’ve mocked him multiple times in round one, including with the top pick.

I think he’s similar to Patrick Mahomes. That’s not a view taken simply because Mahomes is flavour of the month and possibly the NFL MVP. Murray, legitimately, shares some of the same traits. That same ability to be running at full speed out of pressure and improbably throwing a dart downfield on a dime for a huge, game-changing completion. His arm strength, accuracy, elusiveness, creativity.

He is special.

He’s not as big as Mahomes but he’s much faster. He’s a mix of Mahomes and Michael Vick or Lamar Jackson.

Not convinced? This one throw against Alabama recently says it all:

That’s as good as it gets. Sprinting away from the pressure, probably in two minds whether to scramble and get what he can on the ground. Then instinctively he sees a small opening downfield. He launches the ball on the run without needing to reset his feet. Despite throwing off his back-foot, Murray gets it 50-yards downfield.

It’s an inch-perfect pass. The receiver has two defenders with him. If Murray under-throws that ball at all it’s picked off. It has to be on the money. And he manages to put it in the one area where the defenders have zero chance to play the ball. It hits the receiver in stride. It’s the most perfect downfield bomb you’ll ever see.

Murray might be the most exciting player I’ve written about on this blog. Seriously. We’ve been going since 2008 and I haven’t seen anyone quite like this. His range of throws, accuracy at every level, sprinters speed to be an X-factor as a runner and his elusiveness are unmatched. I think in the right scheme, he could be even better than Mahomes. His 5-9 and 190lbs frame will be a concern to some. I’m taking the chance.

Would the Arizona job be more attractive if there was an opportunity to work with a talent like this? I think so. And while admittedly it’d take Murray opting to play football instead of baseball — it’s clearly a decision he’s giving a lot of thought. I hope he chooses football. He’s too good, too exciting. I want to see if his game translates — even if he ends up competing in the NFC West against the Seahawks.

This is the first time Arizona has had the first overall pick in a generation. If Murray is available, don’t let the decision to draft Josh Rosen influence your choice. Shoot for greatness. Let them compete. More often than not you need to get the QB position right to win a Super Bowl. To be consistently great you certainly need a winner at QB.

Keep searching until you find the guy.

If the Cardinals aren’t interested — the Giants, Broncos, Dolphins and any other team without a quarterback solution should be picking up the phone about a trade if Murray declares.

He’s the best draft eligible player for 2019.

He’s by far the best draft eligible quarterback.

He’s a potential superstar in the making if he chooses football over baseball.

Playoff predictions

I don’t usually do predictions but thought I would this year ahead of the post-season. We’ll see how many are accurate…

Wildcard round

Indianapolis @ Houston

This will come down to Indy’s blossoming O-line versus the Texans’ fierce pass rush. Andrew Luck is comeback player of the year without any doubt but he’s also prone to a bad turnover (or two). Can Houston impact his play? I think they will.

Winner: Texans

Los Angeles Chargers @ Baltimore

Losing to the Ravens at home during the regular season will be a useful lesson for the Chargers. They can learn from their mistakes and make amends. I think LA’s defense might end up winning this more than the play of Philip Rivers.

Winner: Chargers

Seattle @ Dallas

This is the type of game where I think homefield is the difference maker. The Seahawks have the better coach and better quarterback. But the Cowboys have been on a roll at home. So in a coin-toss type of game, I’ll side with the home team.

Winner: Cowboys

Philadelphia @ Chicago

The Nick Foles story is extremely fun and charming. But the Chicago defense is playing lights out. I think this will be a crushing, physical and comfortable Bears win.

Winner: Bears

Divisional round

Houston @ New England

Another year, another Patriots home game in the playoffs. They’ve beaten Houston already and Tom Brady makes enough plays here to send New England to another AFC Championship game.

Winner: Patriots

Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City

The Chargers stunned the Chiefs during the regular season with a win in Kansas City. This will likely be another highly entertaining, well-contested game. This time, the Chiefs edge it.

Winner: Chiefs

Chicago @ Los Angeles Rams

Great defense vs great offense. Usually in the playoffs the great defense wins through. I just think Aaron Donald will create too many problems for Mitchell Trubisky and the Rams will make enough offensive plays to win.

Winner: Rams

Dallas @ New Orleans

The Saints will be highly motivated to get revenge for their loss in Dallas. They get an emphatic, comfortable win here to progress to the NFC Championship game.

Winner: Saints

Championship games

New England @ Kansas City

Patrick Mahomes puts on a show and the Patriots struggle to keep up. Despite their defensive issues, Kansas City rides homefield advantage and an explosive offense to the Super Bowl.

Winner: Chiefs

Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans

The last meeting ebbed and flowed throughout and this would likely be another high scoring contest. The Saints are the more complete team with a superior defense. That, plus homefield advantage, proves to be the difference.

Winner: Saints

Super Bowl

Kansas City vs New Orleans

A dream for the NFL as they get a battle between two highly productive and popular quarterbacks, both at opposite ends of their careers. Patrick Mahomes impresses to make it a competitive game for three quarters. Then, at the end, the Saints’ superior defense proves to be the difference.

Winner: Saints

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Notes on Mississippi State’s defense in the Outback Bowl

Tony Pauline is reporting interest from the Seahawks in cornerback Jamal Lewis. He’s not the only player they might have their eye on from the Mississippi State defense.

This is an interesting group. It starts with Jeffery Simmons at defensive tackle, who we discussed last week. Simmons had the best three plays to start a game I think I’ve ever seen from a defensive tackle in the Outback Bowl.

On the first defensive snap of the game, he was far too quick for the right guard and just exploded through the A-gap to drop the running back for a four-yard loss. On the next play he controlled the right guard at the LOS and the running back, opting to run right at Simmons, sprinted straight into an area with no lane. Then, on third down, Simmons used a swim move to beat the center with ease and hammer the quarterback for a sack.

This game was a collectors item. For most of the year, Simmons had to handle double teams. It limited his ability to make plays as a pass rusher but he still recorded 14.5 TFL’s (and added 2.5 more in this game). It gave us an insight into what he’s capable of facing a consistent 1v1 opportunity.

With 8:53 left in the third quarter, Simmons drove the center into the backfield with a fantastic bull-rush before disengaging and sacking the quarterback. At the start of the fourth quarter he ploughed his way into the backfield and hit the quarterback (at the same time as Montez Sweat, who had a nice rush off the edge too).

Simmons is the real deal. He has a frame comparable to Ndamukong Suh. He has minimal body fat at 6-4 and 300lbs. He’s big, powerful and highly athletic. He controls the LOS as a run defender and has the quickness and explosion to be a playmaker. Issues off the field dating back to High School might put off some teams. If he can convince people he’s a changed man, he’ll likely be a very high pick in the draft.

Safety Johnathan Abram might be the best in a very average looking year for the position. He’s tough, physical and lays a hit. There are some concerns about his athletic limitations and a big combine will be necessary to max out his stock. He had a mixed day in this game.

Early on he had a big tackle for a loss, reading a WR screen and making a nice break on the ball to force a six-yard loss. There were several well timed hits and he helps set the tone on the back-end of the defense.

He also gave up a 75-yard touchdown. Lined up in the slot, Abram was caught staring at the quarterback allowing a receiver to run straight by him. It was a huge, back-breaking blown coverage. As the safety, he must’ve known he didn’t have deep help? What was he doing focusing on the QB and allowing that receiver to get downfield uncovered?

Abram often lines up in this position with the option to blitz. With 13:29 left in the third quarter he was quick enough to get to the quarterback. He met in the backfield with Montez Sweat, who was given the gift of a blocking tight end to beat.

There were other iffy moments. He was flagged on a pass interference call on a deep shot to the left sideline and was beat in a mismatch against tight end T.J. Hockenson, giving up a big 22-yard reception. He made amends with a decent stop on third down on the following drive, to give Mississippi State a shot to win.

Overall he’s a good player but I get the sense Seahawks fans, spoilt by Earl Thomas, want elite play at the position. There’s nobody in this class capable of quenching that desire.

Jamal Peters wasn’t targeted until there was 1:09 left in the first half. On a deep shot to the left, Peters did an excellent job squeezing his receiver to the sideline to take away any opportunity to make a catch in bounds. Great technique. He also made a big special teams stop to start the second half on a kick-off return. Peters limped off the field with 3:39 left in the third quarter but it didn’t look too serious.

Montez Sweat is long, lean and quick. You can imagine the Seahawks liking his frame and style as a potential LEO rusher. He was pretty quiet apart from the plays already mentioned above. It’s difficult to determine his stock. I’ve watched a lot of Mississippi State’s games from 2018. There weren’t any horrible games where he was hammered in the running game. Josh Allen at Kentucky had some of those. You wouldn’t say run defense is a strength for Sweat but he didn’t look like a liability either.

That said, we’re projecting to the NFL here. He looks about 240lbs with a very lean frame. If he’s going to play early downs, he’ll need to convince teams he can be explosive and strong at the point and help set the edge. That’s a big ask at his size. If he gets to the combine having added a few pounds of muscle and tests well in the 10-yard split, vertical and broad jump — it’ll help. At the moment it’s fair to wonder if teams will merely see him as a situational rusher capable of making an impact albeit in limited snaps. The combine is big for him. To his credit, he knows how to use his length and keep his frame clean and he’s a long-strider with great initial quickness.

Whenever you watch Mississippi State, sophomore Willie Gay Jr. makes a big play. He’s one to watch for the future. He had a huge, game-changing interception at 17-6 to Iowa. They quickly scored twice to lead 19-17 (aided by a special teams fumble by Iowa after the first score).

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