This was always going to be a vital period for the Seahawks.
Having endured two off-seasons of re-setting — for the first time they had money to spend and draft picks to use.
This was a golden opportunity to propel the team back into serious Super Bowl contention. Yet as of May 15th, the off-season has simply created a host of question marks and confusion.
Everything starts with the struggling 2019 defense.
We’ve gone over this so many times already so I apologise for once again repeating the same stats today. Yet it’s the best way to illustrate just how bad Seattle’s defense was last year and why it needed major work:
— The Seahawks finished with 28 sacks, second fewest in the league behind only Miami (23)
— Their sack percentage was 4.5% — third worst overall
— The Seahawks produced a sack or quarterback hit on just 14.4% of opponents’ pass plays — worst in the NFL
— They had only 126 pressures, sixth fewest in the league behind Detroit (125), Oakland (117), Houston (117), Atlanta (115) and Miami (96)
— Seattle’s pressure percentage was the fourth worst in the league (19.3%) behind Detroit (18.9%), Houston (18.1%) and Miami (16.7%)
— Seattle hit the quarterback 68 times — fourth fewest
— They had 52 TFL’s — fourth fewest
— They gave up 55 explosive running plays on defense, seventh most in the NFL
— Their explosive run play percentage (14%) was the third worst overall behind only Carolina (16%) and Cleveland (15%)
— They gave up 4.9 YPC — fourth most overall
— They had 131 missed tackles during the regular season — fourth most.
It was difficult to make a case that the defensive issues had been addressed even before the news broke yesterday that an arrest warrant had been issued for Quinton Dunbar. It’s likely he’ll never play a down for the Seahawks. The fifth round pick they spent on him will be a waste and the only saving grace is they can cut him without taking on any dead money. They’ll save $3.4m.
People were banking on Dunbar making a difference. PFF ranking him as the #2 cornerback in the NFL last season raised expectations — even if it was creating false hope (Dunbar has actually missed 14 games due to injury in the last two years and was far from a sure thing).
With the likelihood that he won’t be part of the 2020 Seahawks after all, here’s a quick review on what’s actually changed in terms of Seattle’s starting defense:
Players Out
Jadeveon Clowney
Al Woods
Quinton Jefferson
Ziggy Ansah
Mychal Kendricks
Players In
Bruce Irvin
Benson Mayowa
Jordyn Brooks
Darrell Taylor
The secondary, without Dunbar, is identical to a year ago with no new additions of significance. They spent a first round pick to replace Mychal Kendricks (and presumably K.J. Wright for the long term). They’ve so far failed to bring back Jadeveon Clowney — instead adding Benson Mayowa, Bruce Irvin and trading up for Darrell Taylor. They’re yet to replace Al Woods.
It’s impossible to look at this collection of ins and outs and make any kind of argument that the Seahawks are better.
How are they going to improve in terms of pass rush, pressure rate and run defense?
Irvin and Mayowa are complimentary pieces. As noted last week, they were well supported in Carolina and Oakland last season:
Irvin played on a line in Carolina that had multiple, high-quality contributors. Mario Addison and Brian Burns delivered 17 sacks between them. Vernon Butler, Gerald McCoy and Dontari Poe also combined for 15 more sacks rushing the interior.
In Oakland, Mayowa’s production fit in alongside Maxx Crosby, Clelin Ferrell and Maurice Hurst collectively providing 18 sacks.
The Seahawks also need to find a way to replace Clowney’s impact — which was significant despite his modest sack numbers. His pass rush win percentage (25%) was fifth highest in the NFL and only 1% lower than Myles Garrett in 2019 — despite facing constant double teams. He also had 30 pressures — twice as many as Mayowa in Oakland.
This has been a strange off-season overall. It’s difficult to work out how they’re going to improve the concerning defensive numbers short of simply hoping some of the underachievers on the roster (such as Rasheem Green and L.J. Collier) elevate their performance to an unexpected new level.
Either that or they need to make some late moves. Namely Clowney. Those suggesting Logan Ryan and Dre Kirkpatrick as alternatives to Dunbar should acknowledge Seattle’s strict preferences on arm length (and neither player has the coveted +32 inch arms).
If you’re willing to be honest, the defensive line doesn’t look good enough. The biggest investment on the defense so far is a linebacker. The secondary, minus Dunbar, will be untouched.
Despite all this, they’ve spent $50m in free agency on retaining players or signing new ones. How can there be so many questions about potential improvement with such a high level of investment?
Is it not right to question why so little has been done to upgrade a defense that badly needed help? To ask why the roster is loaded with 18 offensive linemen yet so far, even Al Woods hasn’t been replaced at defensive tackle? To critique the decision to spend $11.796m on David Moore, Branden Jackson, Joey Hunt, Cedric Ogbuehi and Jacob Hollister — while enduring a painful stalemate with Clowney (yet being unwilling to simply move on and sign someone else — for example Everson Griffen).
There are so many more questions too.
Is it wise to invest $12.8m of cap space in Greg Olsen (35) and Bruce Irvin (33 this year)? Why are they paying Jacob Hollister $3.259m as a restricted free agent having already committed $6.9m to Olsen and then drafting two tight ends?
Is it a good use of funds to be spending nearly $25m of 2020 cap space on two linebackers — while also using your first round pick on the position?
Why is Irvin’s 2020 salary 32% more than the deal he signed in Carolina a year ago? What did Cedric Ogbuehi show in his 155 total snaps for the Jaguars last season to warrant a pay increase from $895,000 to $2.237m?
Do they have sufficient depth at running back, considering the offense virtually collapsed at the end of the 2019 season when Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny were injured? Given Penny is expected to start on the PUP list and Carson has a track record of injuries, can they place any faith in Deejay Dallas and Travis Homer to carry the load? And is Marshawn Lynch a realistic fallback again as anything more than a late-season energiser?
Of course there’s still time for further moves. The Seahawks didn’t acquire Clowney until right before the start of the season a year ago. Yet you can’t bank on trades of that caliber being available every year. Most teams, by now, have done their business. They keep their options open on players as they seek value. They don’t need to make major, significant additions after the draft though.
The Seahawks have a lot still to get done.
It’s also possible they’ve simply experienced a spate of bad luck. The Clowney situation was unpredictable and possibly had an impact on everything else they’ve done this off-season. Signing him back in the first 3-4 days of free agency could’ve changed the entire complexion of what they were able to do. The Dunbar incident is even more unexpected.
Even so — when you’re a team that aspires to compete for Super Bowls, playing in the toughest division in football with two rivals who’ve been in the Super Bowl in the last two seasons, you’re going to have your off-season analysed and critiqued. Any serious debate about the Seahawks has to ask the difficult questions about whether enough has been achieved so far for Seattle to take any kind of step forward in 2020.
Some brief thoughts on the Russell Wilson trade stuff
Yesterday Mike Florio brought up the prospect of the Seahawks trading Wilson in the not too distant future. It follows a conversation with Chris Simms earlier in the week where Simms noted the Seahawks and Browns talked about a possible Wilson trade involving the #1 pick in 2018.
The reaction from Seattle’s media has been staunchly defensive but I think there are two serious points to make:
1. The Seahawks almost certainly did consider trading Wilson
2. There will be an interesting situation in 2022
It’s easy to forget that a year ago, Adam Schefter spent considerable time — unprovoked — discussing the possibility of Wilson being traded prior to the 2019 draft. Jack Del Rio also mentioned that he’d heard, within the league, talk of a possible trade.
See for yourself:
It’s very easy to revise history since Wilson signed his new deal. In the build up to that agreement, there was talk of wanting $40m a year, playing on multiple franchise tags or insisting on a percentage of the cap as a salary. The Seahawks had already endured one highly fractious negotiation with Wilson’s agent Mark Rodgers in 2015. I don’t think people truly grasp how concerned they probably were about a second bout with Rodgers. It’s very, very believable that they feared the worst and wondered whether they would have to consider the unthinkable, rather than risk a Kirk Cousins-esque slow-dance to divorce.
Such a situation would’ve been a huge distraction. A black cloud hanging over the franchise. It would’ve also been very likely that Seattle would’ve eventually lost Wilson without proper compensation.
So it shouldn’t be a surprise at all that they had even a brief conversation about trading Wilson to a team owning the #1 overall pick in a 2018 draft loaded with quarterback talent. Any sensible team would have that conversation — even if it’s just to cover all bases. It’s also very real that they had similar conversations a year ago. In the end no trade was necessary because an agreement was reached. Seahawks fans should be happy that the team is mature enough to consider all eventualities.
It’s to Wilson’s credit that he didn’t force Seattle’s hand or insist on being a trailblazer for NFL contracts. He accepted what he was due — to be the highest paid player in the league for a while. All’s well that ends well.
Yet had he insisted on changing the NFL’s contract structure forever — there’s every chance he would’ve been playing somewhere else.
As for the future — Wilson is contracted for four more seasons. It seems unlikely, due to coronavirus, that the NFL economy is going to outgrow his salary in that timeframe. There’s even talk of the cap coming down in 2021. Therefore it’s unlikely there’ll be any issues until after the 2022 season.
By then, the negotiations will begin again over an extension. And once again, we’ll need to see how Wilson plays it. He’ll only be 33 when they start talking. He will feel, at that stage, like he has at least one last enormous contract in him.
Given the way negotiations have gone in the past, it’d be naive to assume the two parties will skip along to 2023 and then just merrily sign an extension.
What if the Seahawks are unable to seriously challenge for a Super Bowl between now and 2022? Wilson publicly called for the team to add superstars this off-season. He hasn’t done that before. If they can’t properly compete for a Championship and sufficiently build around him over the next three seasons, he might have a decision to make.
We’ve also just seen the biggest name quarterback in NFL history switch teams. Will it be that surprising if Tom Brady moving to Tampa Bay raised a few eyebrows among long-standing quarterbacks? And what happens if Brady wins a ring (or two) to end his career in a new city?
The no-trade clause is also a red-herring. If by 2023 Wilson wants to move on — and if another team offers him the salary and the opportunity he desires — he will waive it. It’s window dressing on the contract and merely security for both parties until the next negotiation begins.
Look — the Seahawks and Wilson are good for each other and that could easily remain the case for the rest of his career. Florio’s report was also a little bit mischievous at a time when there’s very little news to discuss (well, until DeAndre Baker and Quinton Dunbar stepped in).
Don’t just write it off as complete trash though. Even if, for the next few years at least, there’s nothing to worry about.
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