Before getting into the mock here are some things to note…
Quarterback trades
We’re likely to see a number of deals completed before the draft in April. Today, Carson Wentz was traded to Indianapolis. For the purpose of this latest projection, I’m going with two further trades:
Sam Darnold to Chicago for a second round pick
I think the Jets are ready to trade Sam Darnold and they’ll seek the best offer. They might have to settle for a second round pick but that enables them to move on.
Jimmy Garoppolo to New England for a third round pick
The Niners appear all set to shift Jimmy G and go in a different direction. If/when that happens, a return to New England feels inevitable.
The other trades explained
I have the Panthers trading up from #8 to #3 with Miami to select a quarterback. Reports are suggesting a level of impatience from owner David Tepper to find a legit franchise quarterback. If a deal for Deshaun Watson, undoubtedly Plan A, doesn’t materialise, I suspect the Panthers will trade up to select a player in the top-five.
I’ve got the 49ers trading up three spots from #12 to #9 in a deal with Denver. The Cowboys are facing a somewhat uncertain quarterback situation and we shouldn’t assume that Dak Prescott will make a full recovery before the season starts, or that the Cowboys will commit to him at the cost of a second franchise tag. Therefore in this mock I have the Niners jumping ahead of the Cowboys to select a QB.
The final first round trade involves Arizona moving up six spots from #16 to #10 in order to draft a dynamic mismatch tight end.
The mock
First you’ll see the projection in list form followed by blurbs on each pick. Then I’ll have some notes specifically on the Seahawks.
This is a very unique draft due to the lack of a combine and the number of players who opted out of the 2020 season. There’s also a somewhat bleak outlook currently for quarterbacks in the 2022 class. Therefore, we might see teams go after the top QB’s early, plus the ‘blue-chip’ players, followed by a lot of unpredictable decisions.
First round
#1 Jacksonville — Trevor Lawrence (QB, Clemson)
#2 New York Jets — Zach Wilson (QB, BYU)
#3 Carolina (v/MIA) — Justin Fields (QB, Ohio State)
#4 Atlanta — Trey Lance (QB, North Dakota State)
#5 Cincinnati — Penei Sewell (T, Oregon)
#6 Philadelphia — Ja’Marr Chase (WR, LSU)
#7 Detroit — Micah Parsons (LB, Penn State)
#8 Miami (v/CAR) — DeVonta Smith (WR, Alabama)
#9 San Francisco (v/DEN) — Mac Jones (QB, Alabama)
#10 Arizona (v/DAL) — Kyle Pitts (TE, Florida)
#11 New York Giants — Jaylen Waddle (WR, Alabama)
#12 Denver (v/SF) — Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB, Notre Dame)
#13 LA Chargers — Rashawn Slater (G, Northwestern)
#14 Minnesota — Rondale Moore (WR, Purdue)
#15 New England — Daviyon Nixon (DT, Iowa)
#16 Dallas (v/ARI) — Azeez Ojulari (DE, Georgia)
#17 Las Vegas — Jaelen Phillips (DE, Miami)
#18 Miami — Najee Harris (RB, Alabama)
#19 Washington — Walker Little (T, Stanford)
#20 Chicago — Elijah Moore (WR, Ole Miss)
#21 Indianapolis — Kwity Paye (DE, Michigan)
#22 Tennessee — Zaven Collins (LB, Tulsa)
#23 New York Jets (v/SEA) — Gregory Rousseau (DE, Miami)
#24 Pittsburgh — Javonte Williams (RB, North Carolina)
#25 Jacksonville (v/LAR) — Levi Onwuzurike (DT, Washington)
#26 Cleveland — Baron Browning (LB, Ohio State)
#27 Baltimore — Josh Myers (C, Ohio State)
#28 New Orleans — Jaycee Horn (CB, South Carolina)
#29 Green Bay — Caleb Farley (CB, Virginia Tech)
#30 Buffalo — Alijah Vera-Tucker (G, USC)
#31 Kansas City — Ronnie Perkins (DE, Oklahoma)
#32 Tampa Bay — Christian Darrisaw (T, Virginia Tech)
Second round
#33 Jacksonville — Kadarius Toney (WR, Florida)
#34 New York Jets — Pat Freiermuth (TE, Penn State)
#35 Atlanta — Travis Etienne (RB, Clemson)
#36 Miami (v/HOU) — Jalen Mayfield (T, Michigan)
#37 Philadelphia — Elijah Molden (CB, Washington)
#38 Cincinnati — Patrick Surtain II (CB, Alabama)
#39 Miami (v/CAR) — Talanoa Hufanga (S, USC)
#40 Denver — Kelvin Joseph (CB, Kentucky)
#41 Detroit — Alim McNeill (DT, NC State)
#42 New York Giants — Carlos Basham (DE, Wake Forest)
#43 San Francisco — Shaun Wade (CB, Ohio State)
#44 Dallas — Christian Barmore (DT, Alabama)
#45 Jacksonville (v/MIN) — Joe Tryon (DE, Washington)
#46 New England — Brevin Jordan (TE, Miami)
#47 LA Chargers — Wyatt Davis (G, Ohio State)
#48 Las Vegas — D’Wayne Eskridge (WR, Western Michigan)
#49 Arizona — Trey Smith (G, Tennessee)
#50 Miami — Landon Dickerson (C, Alabama)
#51 Washington — Davis Mills (QB, Stanford)
#52 New York Jets (v/CHI) — Nick Bolton (LB, Missouri)
#53 Tennessee — Rashod Bateman (WR, Minnesota)
#54 Indianapolis — D’Ante Smith (T, ECU)
#55 Pittsburgh — Tylan Wallace (WR, Oklahoma State)
#56 Seattle — Alex Leatherwood (T/G, Alabama)
#57 LA Rams — Joseph Ossai (LB, Texas)
#58 Baltimore — Teven Jenkins (T, Oklahoma State)
#59 Cleveland — Trevon Moerihg (S, TCU)
#60 New Orleans — Andre Cisco (S, Syracuse)
#61 Green Bay — Tommy Togiai (DT, Ohio State)
#62 Buffalo — Jevon Holland (S, Oregon)
#63 Tampa Bay — Kellen Mond (QB, Texas A&M)
#64 Kansas City — Creed Humphrey (C, Oklahoma)
#1 Jacksonville — Trevor Lawrence (QB, Clemson)
Urban Meyer took this job because of big Trev.
#2 New York Jets — Zach Wilson (QB, BYU)
He has a lot of talent and teams will spend the coming weeks working out his mental makeup while trying to determine just how much upside he has.
#3 Carolina (v/MIA) — Justin Fields (QB, Ohio State)
Fields has major talent but also some flaws. He needs to avoid dropping his eyes under pressure and locking on to primary targets. Yet the question for Carolina and others is this — if you can’t get Deshaun Watson out of Houston, how does Fields compare to the quarterbacks available next year? And that’s when he and others in this class will become quite appealing.
#4 Atlanta — Trey Lance (QB, North Dakota State)
I’ve mocked Lance in round two and while he definitely has the physical tools he doesn’t have many starts and he hasn’t played tough opponents. I think he’s in the Jordan Love range personally. However, Atlanta can afford to draft and develop for a year or two with Matt Ryan under center. They might feel like this is the ideal opportunity to stash a quarterback for the long term and thus be willing to select a raw talent who needs time.
#5 Cincinnati — Penei Sewell (T, Oregon)
He might be the best player in this draft after Trevor Lawrence. This would be an ideal pick for the Bengals who need to protect Joe Burrow when he returns from injury.
#6 Philadelphia — Ja’Marr Chase (WR, LSU)
The best receiver in the draft and he would be a terrific fit for the target-starved Eagles offense.
#7 Detroit — Micah Parsons (LB, Penn State)
There are some character question marks surrounding Parsons but you can easily make the case that he’s the best defensive player in the draft.
#8 Miami (v/CAR) — DeVonta Smith (WR, Alabama)
This works out nicely for the Dolphins as they reunite Tua with a target he already has plenty of chemistry with.
#9 San Francisco (v/DEN) — Mac Jones (QB, Alabama)
I’ve spent a lot of time watching Jones over the last couple of weeks. He might well have physical limitations — but I can see him fitting like a glove in the Shanahan system. What did he do well for Alabama? Kept the offense on schedule and got the ball out quickly. Matt Ryan and Kirk Cousins thrived under Shanahan and I think there’s a chance they’ll think Jones can too.
#10 Arizona (v/DAL) — Kyle Pitts (TE, Florida)
The Cardinals have a duty to provide Kyler Murray with as many weapons as possible and putting Pitts on the field with Nuk Hopkins is a terrifying thought.
#11 New York Giants — Jaylen Waddle (WR, Alabama)
Supremely fast, dynamic and appears to have excellent character. Waddle has star qualities and could become Daniel Jones’ key to success.
#12 Denver (v/SF) — Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB, Notre Dame)
Highly explosive and dynamic — a true first round talent. He can jump a 39-inch vertical and a 10-3 broad jump.
#13 LA Chargers — Rashawn Slater (G, Northwestern)
I’m not as sold on Slater as some others. I think he’ll make a good guard. The Chargers need help across their O-line so could try him at multiple spots.
#14 Minnesota — Rondale Moore (WR, Purdue)
This year, more than any other, you’ve just got to go and get talent. Moore is explosive, fast and unlike anything else in the NFL. He ran a 4.33 forty, a 4.01 short shuttle and jumped a 43 inch vertical at SPARQ.
#15 New England — Daviyon Nixon (DT, Iowa)
A TFL machine in 2020 (13.5). Nixon creates havoc from the interior and is a true playmaking defensive tackle.
#16 Dallas (v/ARI) — Azeez Ojulari (DE, Georgia)
The Bowl game against Cincinnati was a statement performance. It was Ojulari saying ‘I belong at the top of your pass rushing boards’.
#17 Las Vegas — Jaelen Phillips (DE, Miami)
The Raiders need pass rushers. Teams will need to investigate the concussion issues that led to his departure from UCLA. However — Phillips was once a major recruiting superstar and has natural talent to get after the quarterback. Few players have his upside in this draft.
#18 Miami — Najee Harris (RB, Alabama)
Gliding and cultured runner who somehow combines power and finesse. Very talented and productive. Won’t fit every scheme as his cuts are sometimes laboured. Ran a 4.16 short shuttle at SPARQ.
#19 Washington — Walker Little (T, Stanford)
Perfectly sized, great agility and a very capable tackle prospect who will go earlier than people think. Had the best SPARQ score among O-liners in 2017 (107.25).
#20 Chicago — Elijah Moore (WR, Ole Miss)
Strong for his size and capable of going up to get the football — Moore is an ideal slot receiver and would provide a much-needed weapon for Carson Wentz if he ends up in Chicago.
#21 Indianapolis — Kwity Paye (DE, Michigan)
The Colts love to draft for upside and physical traits. Paye’s tape is inconsistent and he has limited games to study but physically he was expected to test superbly.
#22 Tennessee — Zaven Collins (LB, Tulsa)
He only ran a 5.03 forty at SPARQ but when you put on the tape he jumps off the screen. He looks like a first rounder.
#23 New York Jets (v/SEA) — Gregory Rousseau (DE, Miami)
Has the size and the length but he was really raw in Miami and sitting out 2020 hasn’t helped his stock.
#24 Pittsburgh — Javonte Williams (RB, North Carolina)
He had a record 0.48 broken tackles per rush attempt in 2020, registered 7.0 YPC and 4.59 yards-after-contact per carry. He’s exceptional.
#25 Jacksonville (v/LAR) — Levi Onwuzurike (DT, Washington)
The Jaguars badly need to address their D-line and while Onwuzurike isn’t going to be able to deliver a Calais Campbell-type impact, they miss that kind of player working the interior.
#26 Cleveland — Baron Browning (LB, Ohio State)
Wow-athlete at linebacker with tremendous character and intensity. Ran a 4.18 short shuttle at SPARQ and jumped a 37 inch vertical.
#27 Baltimore — Josh Myers (C, Ohio State)
Incredibly consistent, tough and very athletic center with a long career ahead of him. He ran a 4.49 short shuttle at 310lbs.
#28 New Orleans — Jaycee Horn (CB, South Carolina)
I think the cornerbacks might last a bit then start coming off the board quickly. He looks like a Greek God of a cornerback. Incredibly put together. Dominated Auburn’s Seth Williams. If he played every game like that he’d be a top-10 lock.
#29 Green Bay — Caleb Farley (CB, Virginia Tech)
He has talent but you don’t see much effort in run-support, his tackling isn’t great and he’s not a physical player. He’s a player you want to like a lot but there’s enough to make you pause for thought.
#30 Buffalo — Alijah Vera-Tucker (G, USC)
He could be tried at tackle or guard. He doesn’t have great physical qualities but he was smooth, technically sound and he gets into the right position with ease.
#31 Kansas City — Ronnie Perkins (DE, Oklahoma)
Mean, nasty, quick edge rusher who is only scratching the surface of his potential. Could go earlier.
#32 Tampa Bay — Christian Darrisaw (T, Virginia Tech)
Rising offensive lineman but whenever I’ve watched him there’s just something that makes me think right tackle, not left.
#33 Jacksonville — Kadarius Toney (WR, Florida)
He’s a big favourite in the media but here’s something to consider — he ran a 4.69 at SPARQ at 177lbs. Was it just a bad run? He did jump a 41 inch vertical.
#34 New York Jets — Pat Freiermuth (TE, Penn State)
The ‘Baby Gronk’ nickname is warranted. Superb body control and size.
#35 Atlanta — Travis Etienne (RB, Clemson)
I think he had a ‘meh’ 2020 season but his profile is incredible. Jumped a 37 inch vertical at SPARQ and ran a 4.43.
#36 Miami (v/HOU) — Jalen Mayfield (T, Michigan)
Definitely a right tackle but could help finish off Miami’s O-line rebuild with a pick I have them making at #50.
#37 Philadelphia — Elijah Molden (CB, Washington)
Outstanding player who will only last this long based on his size and straight-line speed. Ran a 3.93 short shuttle at SPARQ and jumped a 37 inch vertical.
#38 Cincinnati — Patrick Surtain II (CB, Alabama)
He had a few lapses in 2020 and don’t forget he only ran a 4.57 at SPARQ.
#39 Miami (v/CAR) — Talanoa Hufanga (S, USC)
The Dolphins acquire this pick after trading down from #8. Hufanga is a player who deserves much more attention and he’s that aggressive, downfield, attacking safety the Belichick tree coaches love.
#40 Denver — Kelvin Joseph (CB, Kentucky)
Well sized and talented. Jumped a 36 inch vertical at SPARQ. Transferred from LSU.
#41 Detroit — Alim McNeill (DT, NC State)
Massive, highly athletic prospect who will shock people when he runs and does the agility testing. Ran a 4.27 short shuttle (!!!) at SPARQ.
#42 New York Giants — Carlos Basham (DE, Wake Forest)
When he flashes he really flashes. There’s also some average games on tape. No combine doesn’t help him because he’s a good athlete.
#43 San Francisco — Shaun Wade (CB, Ohio State)
He might have to settle for a permanent role in the slot but Wade has talent and someone has to try and develop him. Five-star recruit.
#44 Dallas — Christian Barmore (DT, Alabama)
Turned it on late in the season but had a slow start. No doubt he can flash as a pass rusher in college but can he do it consistently at the next level?
#45 Jacksonville (v/MIN) — Joe Tryon (DE, Washington)
Sensational athlete and teams will look at his frame and the way he wins in multiple ways — speed, hand-use, power — and think this is a player we can work with.
#46 New England — Brevin Jordan (TE, Miami)
Ultra-dynamic pass-catching tight end who ran a sensational 4.21 short shuttle at 250lbs at SPARQ.
#47 LA Chargers — Wyatt Davis (G, Ohio State)
He could go much, much earlier than this. Highly talented but a pure guard and that could impact his stock.
#48 Las Vegas — D’Wayne Eskridge (WR, Western Michigan)
The Raiders are still the Raiders and they love freakish speed.
#49 Arizona — Trey Smith (G, Tennessee)
Had a hit and miss Senior Bowl for me but someone is going to want to take a chance on his physical upside.
#50 Miami — Landon Dickerson (C, Alabama)
A first round talent who lasts because of a long history of injuries at Florida State and Alabama.
#51 Washington — Davis Mills (QB, Stanford)
I’ve mocked him plenty of times in round one and I think it could happen. But 10 career starts create a question mark. He has the tools and the talent to succeed.
#52 New York Jets (v/CHI) — Nick Bolton (LB, Missouri)
Old-school linebacker who’ll step up and smack you in the face — but limited athleticism could mean he lasts deep into day two.
#53 Tennessee — Rashod Bateman (WR, Minnesota)
Bateman was prolific in 2019 but in the few games he played in 2020 he just looked off. He did the right thing pulling himself out.
#54 Indianapolis — D’Ante Smith (T, ECU)
He was superb at the Senior Bowl and whether he plays at tackle or guard he has the kind of potential teams crave on the O-line.
#55 Pittsburgh — Tylan Wallace (WR, Oklahoma State)
He’s really talented he just lacks truly dynamic speed. The Steelers always do a good job drafting receivers in round two.
#56 Seattle — Alex Leatherwood (T/G, Alabama)
I think he has to kick inside to guard. He struggled in 1v1’s at tackle at the Senior Bowl. However, he has years of experience at left tackle for Alabama and it’s something you could try to develop for the future. A 6-5, 312lbs offensive lineman with an 85 3/8 inch wingspan with a physical nature will surely appeal.
#57 LA Rams — Joseph Ossai (LB, Texas)
He could replace Leonard Floyd as a rush hybrid who can deliver pressure but also drop if needed.
#58 Baltimore — Teven Jenkins (T, Oklahoma State)
A big, tough, aggressive offensive tackle who strictly is limited to the right side. He could replace Orlando Brown, who is angling for a trade.
#59 Cleveland — Trevon Moehrig-Woodard (S, TCU)
A very talented safety who would come in and make a big impact for a secondary that needs help.
#60 New Orleans —
Andre Cisco (S, Syracuse)
A dynamic athlete and playmaker who has a shot to be really good at the next level. Ran a 4.27 short shuttle at SPARQ, adding a 36 inch vertical.
#61 Green Bay — Tommy Togiai (DT, Ohio State)
Physically powerful with the occasional flash of dynamism as a pass rusher — Togiai is a really good player.
#62 Buffalo — Jevon Holland (S, Oregon)
Out of sight and out of mind — Holland sat out the 2020 season and isn’t generating much buzz.
#63 Tampa Bay — Kellen Mond (QB, Texas A&M)
Why not plan for life after Tom? Mond has the arm, he throws well under pressure and he’s talented. In a few years time we may wonder how he lasted as long as he did.
#64 Kansas City — Creed Humphrey (C, Oklahoma)
He’s great on combo-blocks, he plays with attitude but he has short arms, he fights to get his hand-placement right and he might just last a bit longer than some think.
Thoughts on the Seahawks
I put this mock together under the premise that they don’t make the kind of bold, calculated moves I think are necessary. They don’t shift resource from linebacker and safety to the O-line and they don’t get back into the top-50 with more draft picks.
In this projection they simply restructure a few contracts, free up cap space and do what they’ve done for a few years now — fill holes with cheap players. Personally I think this will simply lead to more of the same and by next year, if not sooner, we’ll be talking about Russell Wilson’s future in even starker terms than we are now. Pete Carroll has a duty to make this right with Wilson and that means making tougher decisions than I am representing in this mock.
I think in this situation they’re duty bound to go O-line early. I have them taking Alex Leatherwood at #56 but if he was off the board there were many alternative options. It’s a strong class for interior O-liners. Whether the best way to protect Wilson and take on Aaron Donald is with youth and experience is a question that should be asked but here we are. I’d prefer talent and experience up front personally.
Tag-and-trade scenario
I mentioned this in yesterday’s podcast (see below) and I wanted to flesh out the detail here.
The franchise tag number for a cornerback in 2021 is $15.3m. The highest paid corner is Jalen Ramsey, earning $20m a year.
I think it’s quite possible teams like the Jaguars and Jets, with a lot of cap room and a need at the position, would be willing to consider signing Shaquill Griffin to a deal worth around $15m a year. That’s pretty much market value for a decent starting corner with age on his side (he turns 26 in July).
If you don’t want to take a cornerback early, Griffin is a nice alternative.
If the Seahawks hear that he has a strong market before the new league year begins, I think they should consider tagging him with the objective of trading him. I don’t think it’s beyond the realms of possibility you get a third round pick in return.
There’s really no downside. If nobody bites, just rescind the tag. If you can only get a day three pick, so be it. The chances are the Seahawks will sign free agents to fill holes on their roster, meaning they’re very unlikely to get a comp pick for Griffin in 2022. So you might as well get something for him.
This is also a way to add to your paltry number of picks in this draft.
In this projection, it could enable the Seahawks to add someone like Quinn Meinerz in round three, a receiver (it’s a good class) or a defensive lineman (there are several still remaining).
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