3000 NFL mock draft: Episode #16

December 15th, 2015 | Written by Rob Staton

This week Kenny and I look at the NFC playoff picture, the great form of Russell Wilson, which team might end up with the #1 pick, whether Derrick Henry should’ve won the Heisman, Robert Nkemdiche’s run-in with the law and why the Saints might draft a quarterback early. Check it out. Tell your friends.

83 Responses to “3000 NFL mock draft: Episode #16”

  1. Trevor says:

    Rob if Nkemdiche fell to the bottom of the 1st round would you consider him or do you think he will be off the Hawks board because of character and work ethic concerns?

    • cha says:

      “Nkemdiche fell to the bottom”

      pun not intended?

    • Rob Staton says:

      What I read today worries me enough to take him off the board. He has time to turn it around though.

      • Trevor says:

        Yeah it is very worrisome. It is too bad because he has the skill set to be an amazing 3 technique DT. Can imagine him with his head on right in the interior of our DL. Or he could be a Clowney and just never push himself to live up to all that potential.

        After hearing the whole story he is lucky to be alive. I hope he can sort his life out and turn things around no matter what happens with the draft.

        It is so sad that these kids have everything in front of them to have an incredible future and life but for whatever reason fail to see that and make poor decisions. Just hope he gets the help and support he needs.

      • CharlieTheUnicorn says:

        Perhaps bottom of round 2, I mean…. they did take in a DV guy last year and it seems to be working out. They can take a DT/DE who falls out of windows and smokes weed under their Seahawks collective wing.

  2. Trevor says:

    I was taking a look at the Hawks roster today and it really is amazing that you can build the best roster in the NFL like they have. We all love the draft here and finding draft gems. The one thing the Hawks do better than any team and it is not debatable is finding gems in the UDFA market and then recruiting, coaching and developing them.

    Look at our starting offense last week.

    QB Wilson 3rd round
    RB Rawls UDFA
    RB Jackson UDFA
    FB Coleman UDFA
    TE Willson 5th Round
    TE Hefledt UDFA
    WR 1 Ballwin UDFA
    WR 2 Kearse UDFA
    WR3 Lockett 3rd Round
    LT Okung 1st round
    LG Britt 2nd round
    C Lewis UDFA
    RG Sweezy 7th Rd
    RT Gilliam UDFA

    So basically our offense has
    1-1st rounder
    1-2nd rounder
    3-3rd rounders
    1-5th rounder
    1-7th rounder
    8-UDFA

    That is absolutely amazing and even more amazing is that we do not have even one skilled postion player drafted in the 1st or 2nd round.

    The success the Hawks have had the last 4 years has been amazing in this age or parity but to do it with a roster built with primarily UDFAs and mid to late round picks is even more amazing.

    • Volume12 says:

      One reason why I’m not a fan of drafting receivers in the 1st round. WRs are a dime a dozen man.

      You can find talent at that position after the 1st. How many of these 1st round receivers have made their team better? OBJ?

      • cha says:

        Amari Cooper, Deandre Hopkins, Mike Evans, Sammy Wadkins, although there are just as many guys who haven’t proved themselves yet.

        I guess my point is it’s really hard to pigeonhole a position into a round.

        • Volume12 says:

          Those guys are good, but therir teams aren’t good because of that. Spending a 1st round pick on a receiver when they have other needs and positions tht could make a bigger impact as Ed said.

          • cha says:

            I agree that allocation of resources should be given to more foundational players. You certainly cannot build a team around a WR. That said, some years the draft fits with your best plans, some years not. If you have a talent at say WR you think is so far above the rest of the board you either trade down or take him.

            • Volume12 says:

              I get that. But, the bust rate for WR’s is way too high in the 1st round. There’s only so many classes like 2014.

              Spending a 1st on a WR is like buying a Ferrari. All flash and bang, but how far is that thing going to take you?

              • cha says:

                “bust rate for WR’s is way too high in the 1st round.”

                Do you have data on that? I recall reading some pieces showing rates are just as high for the other ‘premium positions’ like QB or LT or DE or even higher.

                • Rob Staton says:

                  I suspect the ‘bust rate’ on first round WR’s is totally outdated and overplayed these days. Teams are hitting on receivers. Detroit and Matt Millen kind of created the myth that teams that go WR will not succeed. Nowadays nobody should fear taking a WR early. Look at the production you’re getting from the good ones.

                  That said, I think the Seahawks are better served mimicking the Steelers — look for dynamic speed and suddenness in rounds 2-5. Look for value. Unless the guy starring at you in round one is that good. For the Seahawks, would it be the worst thing in the world to take someone like Will Fuller at the end of the first if he tests as well as I think he might? Something to consider.

                  • CHawk Talker Eric says:

                    To that end, I’m becoming more enamored with Sterling Shepard. He fits with the WR model SEA is winning with – guys like Baldwin and Lockett – without seeming to be redundant to either.

                    I came across this tweet that sums him up:

                    LedyardNFLDraft: Someone I love? Prob Cash lol. A WR who play like Lockett? Not yet, but I like Sterling Shepard a lot for sure

                  • CharlieTheUnicorn says:

                    Round 2 or 3 is the sweet spot. Get the guy with suddenness and explosiveness… and he doesn’t need to be 6’2″ + either. I’m a big fan of building the Seattle passing offense around the “patriot” model. Lots of small quick guys running everywhere…. and have plenty of rub routes.

                  • Donald says:

                    There are a lot of good receivers taken in the 1st rd (Julio Jones).

                    My wish list would be Tyler Boyd WR Pitt in the 1st rd. He is 6′-2 3/4″ 4.4 /40 sudden burst and get away speed. Most importantly he high points better than most.

                    Trouble is the Hawks could also use Ezek Elliott in the 1st because they lack depth in that position when Lynch is gone.

                  • Donald says:

                    Keep in mind that for several years the Hawks 1st pick has been at the END of the 1st rd. So really their 1st pick is the beginning of the 2nd rd.

                    They can’t take a 2nd rd talent in the second because they would be gone, so they have to always pick their guy a rd earlier.

                  • Volume12 says:

                    I’m just sayin’ personally, I wouldn’t take a WR in the 1st. But, I’m not a GM.

                  • Volume12 says:

                    Thing I like about Shepard besides the grit he has, is the fact he can get ya the big, explosive plays, but he does all of the little things really well.

      • Ed says:

        They have all made their teams better (Jones/Bryant etc…), but I agree with your point that their are more important ways to spend your money that would make bigger impact on your team

  3. Rik says:

    The Patriots just signed Montee Ball to their practice squad. I was hoping we’d pick him up. We still could since he’s not on the active roster. We should grab him just to make smoke come out of Bellichik’s ears. Except Brady would probably cry.

    • Volume12 says:

      And Seattle cut DuJuan Harris. It was such a strange move to begin with. He just didn’t fit, and after watching him run, I think we all saw why they like tough, hard nosed, physical runners.

  4. vrtkolman says:

    The more I think about it, the more I think we sign Kearse to a multi-year deal in the off season. He’s been solid enough this season, and he really is a great spokesman for the team. A former UDFA who worked his ass off to be a starter on a Superbowl caliber roster. Taking care of someone like sends a message to other future free agents who would consider Seattle.

    On the topic of WR’s, if Corey Coleman is available at the end of the 1st I think Seattle takes a hard look there. Coleman alongside Lockett with Baldwin in the slot gives Seattle a Pittsburgh caliber receiving corp. Add in Graham and Rawls and you are looking at the most terrifying offense in football next year. Also I’m unsure if Richardson will ever be able to handle a full workload.

    • Volume12 says:

      The same Pittsburgh receiving core that doesn’t have a 1st round pick/wideout amongst them?

    • LikwidIce says:

      The only thing Kearse is solid for is turning drops into interceptions.

    • KingRajesh says:

      Kearse’s production can be easily replaced. I really like Corey Davis from Western Michigan if he comes out this year. A gritty small school guy that can flat out ball.

      If he can run in the low 4.5s or a 4.4, look out.

  5. CHawk Talker Eric says:

    Lots of movement at RB around the League today.

    JAX sign Jonas Grey
    NEP sign Montee Ball
    WAS cut CMike
    SEA cut Harris
    Blount goes to IR

  6. CHawk Talker Eric says:

    Also SEA cut BJ Daniels and Akeem Davis, then sign Chase Coffman.

    I read Willson had an MRI for bruised ribs. Must be serious enough of an injury to resign Coffman

    • Volume12 says:

      Read the same regarding Willson. Also read that Burley and Shead had ankle sprains.

      Time to see what Tye Smith is about?

      • CHawk Talker Eric says:

        IIRC Shead got the sprain fairly early in the game but kept playing. Tough guy. Looking forward to seeing Smith play.

        SEA also cut Antwan Goodley, Justin Hamilton and Alex Singleton from the PS. No doubt they’ll resign BJ to the PS if he clears. But that still leaves 2 open PS, and 1 open active roster spots.

        I bet they still are looking to add another RB. But who?

    • cha says:

      Schefter says Michael cut from Washington’s Practice Squad.

      What a shame. So talented.

  7. Pugs says:

    I’m here in Mississippi and just wanted to add some info on Nkemdiche. The problem he has is being reported as weed but it’s actually Spice. He reportedly freaked out and thought he was being chased and busted out his window climbed out and fell where a bush broke his fall. His brother a LB on the Ole Miss team has missed the last few games due to a Spice O.D. So needless to say this is not the normal player getting caught with weed story. This is also not the first problem he has had at Ole Miss. The kid has all the talent in the world and I could see how Pete and this team could be good for him but he would be a big risk. He has the ability to wreck havoc from the DT position and could have a huge impact as part of this DL. He is the ultimate boom or bust pick. He could be all-pro or out of the league in two years.

    • nichansen01 says:

      I can see him falling, I can’t see the Hawks interested.

      • C-Dog says:

        I read a report on WalterFootball.com about a month ago there where a ton of red flag reports coming out over his personality, and the company he keeps. He’s been a player I’ve been speculating would be in for a big fall come draft time, and might be available for Seattle’s first pick. I don’t see how any team takes him with their first pick now. If someone burns a pick in rounds 1-2 on him, I think it’s a huge risk, but a mid round pick might stand a better chance of him coming in focused, dedicated, and ready to prove people wrong.. a la Honey Badger.

        • Attyla the Hawk says:

          I’m kind of reminded how Warren Sapp dropped to 12th overall due to dope incident on the eve of the draft.

          Not sure how far he falls. Obviously Mathieu was actually dismissed from his team for a full year. Positional value and lack of top talent to boot could keep him from falling too far.

          Will some remove him off the boards? Sure. But I don’t think enough will to keep him from getting out of the 1st.

          • Miles says:

            I think how the NFL views marijuana will change with how Mathieu ended up working out. It is not something to be concerned about really unless players are smoking all the time/coming to practice high.

  8. Old but Slow says:

    Early in the podcast, you mentioned that Tenn was the most likely team to pick first. Also, you pointed out that they are set at QB, but need to build support. The logical conclusion, for me, is that they would trade down and add picks, but you also pointed out that there is no obvious #1 player, so it might be hard to find a trading partner.

    • CHawk Talker Eric says:

      Bosa may be the top prospect but I think they take Tunsil.

      Like you say, they need to support Mariota, and what better way to do that than to protect him.

    • Nathan says:

      Maybe someone like the Texans who desperately need to do something at QB?

  9. CharlieTheUnicorn says:

    I was thinking about the Seahawks roster problems, then realized what a dumpsterfire the Patriots look like right now. Ridiculously decimated by injures. Maybe the Football gods are paying them back for some “unknown” reason.

  10. Volume12 says:

    I like this Connor McGovern kid from Mizzou. He’s somewhere between Justin Britt and Mitch Morse. That kind of kid. Not a LT at the next level, but a guy that could play 2-4 spots on an O-line.

    http://draftbreakdown.com/video/connor-mcgovern-vs-south-carolina-2015/

    • UKHawkDavid says:

      This is 2nd time I’ve seen his name today – Field Gulls mocked him to us with a 7th round pick. Are you thinking guard, or just a versatile back-up to replace Bailey? I’ll have to check him out.

      • Volume12 says:

        I like him as an Alvin Bailey type of guy. Can play LG, RT, has the athleicism to play RG, and like Mitch Morse, might even be able to play some C.

  11. Ukhawk says:

    Wondering about Rashard Robinson, LSU, CB as a late round / FA flyer? No doubt some character concerns after his suspension from the team. But has some skills; was their lock down corner ahead of White and played Mike Evans fairly well as a Soph in ’13.

    • Volume12 says:

      I like your line of thinking. Robinson was a stud last year.

      Sounds like CB Tre’davious White might be staying for his senior year.

      USC’s Su’a Cravens is going pro.

  12. Miles says:

    Wondering if the Seahawks have a glimmer of possibility to pursue Josh Norman or Von Miller this offseason. Theoretically those guys won’t even hit the market. But if they did, I think the Seahawks would be trying to get one of them with the amount of cap they have.

    • cha says:

      Nice to look at the dazzling top guys out there but Norman is sure to get something like Maxwell money. Plus he’s almost 30.

      PC said in light of the Carey Williams mess the team will be re-evaluating how they view free agent corners. The ‘kick step’ system is so unique they might literally be forced to go with younger talent and mold them for a season on the PS or bottom of the roster to properly implement it. A more mature pro like CW learned it in the offseason and was praised by the coaches early on, but abandoned it at critical moments and got torched.

      • Miles says:

        What is the kick step system? I don’t even know that.

        What do you think about Von Miller? I wonder if you can get him at a rate not much higher than Bruce Irvin. It seems he is one of the best pass rushers in the league and combined with Avril, Bennett and Frank Clark (in his sophomore season), you’d think it would have to be the best pass rush the Seahawks have seen in the Pete Carroll era.

        • vrtkolman says:

          I think you are going to have to pay out the ass to get Von Miller. He is going to get a mega deal. Irvin’s deal will be nowhere near his.

        • CHawk Talker Eric says:

          SEA teach a press coverage technique called “step-kick” whereby, at the snap of the ball, while a receiver shimmies at the line, the CB steps with one foot and waits until the WR starts moving up field. Similar to a basketball defender watching a guy crossover and fake but not going anywhere.

          DEN will not let Miller get away. I’d be surprised if they don’t sign him before free agency begins

          • Volume12 says:

            The kick step was invented made popular by a guy that was drafted by… Al Davis. The original SPARQ god. Dude was taking freak athletes before there was even such a thing.

      • vrtkolman says:

        Norman screams contract year player to me. He was a journeyman most of his career, started coming on last season and now in his contract year he looks like the best corner in football. Like you said with him turning 30 it would be foolish to break the bank for him. Some team will though, and I don’t think it will be Carolina.

        • matt says:

          Josh Norman was a 2012 5th round pick by the Panthers out of Coastal Carolina. He’s played with Carolina his whole career, and is a prime example of drafting and developing well. Norman in no way a journeyman. He’s a player who was behind a bit coming from a small school, and has worked his way into the conversation of best CB’s in the league. Norman’s rise to stardom has been earned. If Carolina lets him hit the open market, big if, he’ll get $10+ mil a year no question.

    • Nathan says:

      Miller will be getting something in the range of Justin Houston’s contract.

      Way, way, way too much for 1 player.

  13. CHawk Talker Eric says:

    So CMike is back…

    • Volume12 says:

      When we played Dallas earlier in the year, C-mike still looked like he was a Seahawk.

      Let me say this. If Prosise, Perkins, and Collins don’t declare at the RB positioh this year, that’s really gonna hurt the group overall. So, it might be time to start looking at other RBs.

  14. Kyle says:

    So Christine Michael actually is back… I guess we might finally get to see him run more then ten times in a game…

    • Miles says:

      I still think Bryce Brown will at least split carries with Michael. Michael is going to have to show something to get me on the hype-wagon again. Just seems completely removed from the things that make a really good runningback.

      • sdcoug says:

        I know there are those not in favor of a CMike signing, but this isn’t a move for the future, this is a move for now. We need someone who can gain 3 and 4 yards and keep Russ out of consistent 3rd-and-longs. The fact he has the explosiveness for a possible chunk gain is a bonus.

        We don’t know what and when we’ll get with Lynch. To that end, of those options available, I think this is a good move.

        • Volume12 says:

          Not that he planned on it happening this way, but just another genius move from JS. We get a draft pick in a trade for a guy that is now still on the roster. JS is money in the bank man.

          • CHawk Talker Eric says:

            Have to wonder if Scot McCloughlin did JS a favor and cut CMike from their PS so SEA wouldn’t have to pay him the 3-week minimum. It’s a savvy move in that it costs SEA nothing to have him on the roster for this week vs CLE.

    • cha says:

      Can someone remind me the condition of the trade to Dallas? Do the Hawks still get the pick?

  15. Volume12 says:

    That was a very ‘meh’ mock draft over at Field Gulls. Sorry to burst some bubbles, but Johnathan Bullard is NOT special. Very unimpressed.

  16. matt says:

    While in full panic mode last Sunday night the top 2 RB’s that made the most sense to me were Brown and Michael. Feeling much better about the talent toting the rock now! This 2-4 game need for a top dog, while Lynch is out, is a huge opportunity for both of them. They have the talent to be lead backs, and have something to prove. Maybe something clicks for one or both of them, as for the first time in their careers they’ve been cut and jobless recently. Excited to see them get 10+ touches and maybe hit a HR!