Why I wouldn’t rule out the Seahawks drafting Michael Penix Jr in the first round

Former NFL GM Mike Tannenbaum published a mock draft yesterday. He said it’s what he would do, rather than what he thinks will actually happen.

The Seahawks took Troy Fautanu, a consensus pick among the mocks these days. I still think it’s unlikely he’ll last to #14. Fautanu is the best left tackle prospect in the class for me. I think teams like the Saints will strongly consider him at #14 — and it won’t be a surprise if teams in the top-10 look very closely at Fautanu.

I wanted to touch on a different aspect of the mock, though. Tannenbaum has the Rams selecting Michael Penix Jr at #19. Firstly, I think this is very unlikely. Matt Stafford is contracted until 2026 and is really locked into LA’s cap for the next two years. There’s $47m in dead money attached to his deal next year. So realistically, provided he continues playing, Stafford is going to start for the Rams for at least two more seasons.

By 2026, Penix Jr would be 26 years old. I think it’s more likely the Rams will use the #19 pick to get an impact player, with the view of trying to be very competitive this year. After that, it wouldn’t be a surprise if they drafted someone like Spencer Rattler in round two. But even without Aaron Donald, I think they played well enough in 2023 to feel like they’re well placed to have a go next season. Signing Tre’Davious White yesterday suggests that’s how they’re thinking.

The reason I wanted to raise this, though, is to say if Penix Jr is being pitched as a realistic option for the Rams post-Stafford, why didn’t Tannenbaum pair him with Seattle?

The Seahawks have no commitment to Geno Smith beyond this year. They are clearly mindful of what the future looks like at quarterback. Ryan Grubb attended the Oregon pro-day, then went to Michigan and reportedly had a ‘lengthy meeting’ with J.J. McCarthy during the visit. Seattle were also one of a handful of teams to meet with Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels at the combine.

Yes, they just made a move for Sam Howell. They’ve also gone to great lengths to point out he is the backup this year. Speaking on the radio last week, John Schneider noted how important is was to add a QB — referencing the number of teams in the draft who had a need at the position and how that might hamper their attempts to pick one.

The Seahawks know everything they need to know about Penix Jr. They don’t need to do any homework here because Ryan Grubb has the best intel in the league on the Washington quarterback. Is Grubb attending the Oregon and Michigan pro-days to cross-reference and compare? Is it information gathering for the man who ultimately will be able to advise Schneider on Penix Jr?

The Howell trade theoretically provides insurance against the Raiders, Broncos, Vikings, Giants or anyone else taking Penix Jr before Seattle’s pick. But it also doesn’t prevent the Seahawks picking him if they truly believe he is the future.

We’ve probably analysed Penix Jr as much as any player during this draft cycle and I’m still in the same place I’ve always been. His arm talent is truly exceptional and for that reason, there’s a very real chance he will go in the top-15 and could be a legit option for the Seahawks if he reaches #16. There simply aren’t many players who can throw with his downfield ability and touch. Schneider wants field-tilting ability at the position and as we saw in the Texas playoff game, Penix Jr is capable of that. It was a masterful display.

Seattle’s scheme under Grubb will presumably take on a lot of the characteristics we saw at Washington. That involves attacking every blade of grass on the field in the passing game. We know Penix Jr can do that because we saw it for the last two years.

I also get the sense that Schneider is desperate to get more from D.K. Metcalf and wants a coordinator and a quarterback who can create 1v1 opportunities and attack them. I truly believe Schneider sees Metcalf as a potential top-25 player in the league and probably feels the Seahawks haven’t done enough to make that a reality. There isn’t one hint of hesitancy from Penix Jr on tape when he sees Rome Odunze 1v1. He goes after it, time and time again. He will not fear throwing to Metcalf in contested situations.

The counter, though, is obviously the injury history. The reports on a clean bill of health were premature at the combine and felt agent led. It doesn’t mean teams won’t ultimately clear him — but those decisions aren’t made until deep into April. We’ll need to wait some time to discover the reality of the situation.

On top of that we have the dip in performance we saw during the 2023 season. A reminder that his completion percentage dropped from 75% in the first five games to 60.1% in the next eight. During those same two splits, his PFF grade dropped from 87.4 to 70.9. I watched all of the games in this period and he simply didn’t play very well in a lot of games — chucking throws downfield to areas rather than with calculated precision, leading to a lot of incompletions. He still managed the special throws week-to-week and when needed, as we saw against Oregon State, he produced when the team needed a big-time conversion. Yet his performance level did drop — and increased pressure impacted him. This issue re-emerged against Michigan in the National Championship.

Then you have the lack of creative mobility. He isn’t a mad-improviser and a lot of teams want that. I get the sense John Schneider has been chasing Brett Favre throughout his time in Seattle and Penix Jr just isn’t that type. He has the arm — but he’s not extending plays and making the improbable happen on the move. The only real evidence of that was one great play against USC.

There are major pro’s and some con’s. The remarkable arm talent, ability to attack opponents to all levels of the field and the way he elevated Washington to new heights on the plus side. Then there’s the injury history, inconsistent performances and the lack of what the league loves these days — improv and escapability.

In Tannenbaum’s mock, he has Sean McVay taking the chance on the positives. But the key question in this scenario for us should be — is that a chance the Seahawks should take if he’s there at #16?

You could sit Penix Jr for one year, as the Chiefs did with Patrick Mahomes. Or, you’d even have the option to try and trade Geno Smith post-June 1st, where you’d save $12.9m in cap space. You likely wouldn’t get much at that stage of the off-season, or going into camp, short of a critical injury for another team. But Smith would only cost a suitor $12.7m in salary. So there are options here for the Seahawks if they do indeed draft someone like Penix Jr and don’t feel the need to redshirt him.

After all — this is the team that signed Matt Flynn to a big contract (at the time), retained Tarvaris Jackson and then drafted Russell Wilson. They signed Flynn, fully in the knowledge that they really liked Wilson and wanted to draft him. I’d suggest they’re in a similar situation now. They have guys on the roster but while they’re looking for ‘the guy’ they could and should keep looking.

The mind wanders when you see a tweet like this from Jim Nagy, offering the opinion that he didn’t think the Seahawks would draft an offensive lineman in round one. My first reaction was to think that maybe Mike Macdonald had sold Schneider on the idea of building an epic defensive line and that could be the direction they go. What if Nagy actually was thinking quarterback? Or more specifically, Penix Jr?

There’s every chance Penix Jr is off the board by #16 — or the Seahawks can’t clear the medicals to justify taking him. Or pick another scenario — whether it’s not being sold on the elusiveness or they simply don’t think he’s significantly better than Howell. I’ll say again that I think the Howell trade was indicative that they probably don’t expect to draft a quarterback this year, or weren’t confident they could, and wanted insurance they felt comfortable in.

I also don’t think we should rule out Penix Jr in round one to Seattle. There was definitely something going on when Macdonald was appointed, with the repeatedly non-committal approach to answering questions about Geno Smith and the talking-up of Drew Lock. It felt very much like the were open to trading Smith — and Adam Schefter’s report on Twitter at the time virtually spelled that out. They’ve now pivoted to constantly talking-up Geno, while trading for Howell. Meanwhile, Grubb’s doing the pro-day rounds and they 100% know they need to draft a quarterback sooner rather than later.

They’ll never have as much info on a player as Penix Jr going into this draft. This could be the opportunity to get a guy they like without trading the farm to go up and get him. And while the Seahawks clearly have other needs on the team — nothing will do more to set this team up for contender status than drafting and hitting on a top-level quarterback.

I think there are still some interesting potential twists and turns to be had going into this draft. Schneider is in charge now, not Pete Carroll. I think he will be driven by the quarterback position until it’s solved long-term. He once reportedly wanted to draft Andy Dalton in the first round. Provided Penix Jr gets the injury green-light, it’s easy to imagine why Schneider might be very interested in his incredible arm. Keep him in mind at #16.

A final note for today — the LSU pro-day took place. I timed Mekhi Wingo’s short shuttle (you can watch it here) and I got a 4.38. Another excellent time which puts him in the same kind of agility range as Braden Fiske. You can watch my interview with Mingo here. If there are any other details from LSU or from Washington State (where the likes of Brennan Jackson and Jayden Hicks are also working out today) I’ll update the piece.

For crying out loud, will the Seahawks just move on from Jamal Adams

For a large portion of the fan base, Jamal Adams’ departure was a cause for celebration. Weeks earlier he’d completely embarrassed himself and the franchise when he attacked a reporters wife, then doubled down on the behaviour when quizzed by reporters.

It was a relief that he only managed one more game for the Seahawks before we were all given the respite of not having to root for the guy any more. Adams was an expensive flop — his acquisition an epic mistake by Seattle’s decision makers. By the end though, it was more than just a crap trade. Adams was toxic.

Cutting him was a line being drawn under the whole episode. A fresh start. So why, suddenly, is a potential return even a ‘thing’? John Schneider and Mike Macdonald keep entertaining the idea. Brock Huard, who correctly called the signings of Jerome Baker and Tyrel Dodson right before they happened, brought up the suggestion of Adams returning. Turns out it wasn’t a random thought from Huard.

What does he have to offer the Seahawks at this stage? He missed 33 regular season games in four seasons in Seattle. His body has been gradually breaking down. There’s no sign as he approaches his 29th birthday later this year that a clean bill of health and a return to his best is on the cards.

His performance in Seattle when he was healthy was massively underwhelming and often irritating. Nobody could sarcastically applaud an opponent after a seven-yard gain on first down quite like Jamal. He was the anti-Richard Sherman. The brash Seahawks of yesteryear backed up their chatter. Sherman yawning after another incompletion aimed his way was an enjoyable slice of banter from a top performer.

Adams had a knack of consistently chirping away, even when he was doing nothing of significance on the field. That’s how the whole issue came about with the reporter. Adams gave up a huge play in a game where he’d been at the Dallas players throughout. As a touchdown was thrown to Jake Ferguson, the Cowboys’ tight end gazed at Seattle’s safety and Ceedee Lamb came running over to gloat.

Cue the ‘yikes’ tweet.

People love to talk about his sack record for defensive backs in year one — but as Hugh Millen has frequently pointed out, it was virtually all manufactured pressure. One of his sacks came about because Sam Darnold ran out of bounds for a short loss and Adams happened to be nearest to him. He didn’t record a single sack in the next three years. He was PFF’s 88th ranked safety last year and in his three years as a starter in Seattle, his average grade was a poor 59.7.

His time was spent either being injured or ineffective. By the time he started insulting reporter’s wives he’d become an embarrassment. A liability.

What’s the point of bringing him back to play linebacker, as they’ve suggested would be the situation? He’s 213lbs. His body’s already breaking down. How is this going to work?

I get that coaches sometimes feel like they can fix anyone. Mike Macdonald’s schemes have benefited from creative and versatile safety play. He might think he can turn Adams into something he’s shown he no longer is — and John Schneider might be open to a different coach changing the narrative on his worst trade as a GM.

They should resist this idea. Move on. Get younger, faster and healthier. Start a new era where the Seahawks do their talking with their tackling, hitting and pass rush — not with a twerp chuntering away at opponents only to be left with egg on his face, then deciding another man’s wife is a fair retaliation.

I’m bored of Jamal Adams. I want to see that massive mistake consigned to history. Nobody else seems to be interested in him, so why are the Seahawks?

Schneider is starting to resemble Indiana Jones at the end of ‘the Last Crusade’ where he’s reaching out for the Holy Grail. Someone needs to be Indy’s dad, telling him to let it go.

John, for Pete’s sake (pun intended) — let it go.

Robbie, Adam and I will be doing a stream at 4pm ET — do join us:

Two defensive player short shuttle times worth noting

I’m writing this article from a hotel on my phone, which is the first time I’ve done this since Jay Glazer initially reported that Frank Clark might be dealt in 2019. Basically, it isn’t going to be a long piece but the info could be important.

We’d had mixed feedback from local Missouri reporters on what times players ran at the Tigers’ pro-day. Tony Pauline passed on to me information on Darius Robinson’s agility testing via his league sources. He ran a 4.76 short shuttle and a 7.88 three cone.

These are not great times, possibly enough to put the Seahawks off in round one. There’s no denying that Robinson was highly disruptive in 2023 and had a sensational Senior Bowl. When you’re beating Tyler Guyton off the edge you’re no slouch. However, the knock on Robinson has always been a lack of twitch and these times paired with a 4.95 forty confirm that.

The early talk had been of a shuttle in the 4.5’s and that would’ve been comparable to Arik Armstead. Instead, Robinson’s lack of twitch will likely keep him on the board until the late first or early second. He is talented, can create chaos and he’s a tremendous leader. Tony suggested a range of #25-40. It might be more towards the latter half of that range after his pro-day testing results.

The other player to mention is Byron Murphy. There are no reported numbers for his shuttle time but I found footage of his run online and timed it myself. I timed it twice and on both occasions got a 4.43 on the stopwatch — which would be an excellent mark for a 297lbs defensive tackle.

Murphy already tested brilliantly at the combine — running a 4.87 with a 1.69 10-yard split. He’s explosive too, recording a 33 inch vertical and a 9-3 broad.

I’m not convinced the Seahawks would ‘stick and pick’ Murphy at #16 but it would be intriguing to see the Seahawks try to build a great defensive line, after watching the 49ers and Rams dominate in this area for years.

One final note, Albert Breer mentioned the Seahawks were one of three teams to have a ‘lengthy meeting’ with J.J. McCarthy at his pro-day. The other two teams were Washington and New England.

I think it speaks to a couple of things. Firstly, the Seahawks acknowledging the pressing need to be across the young quarterbacks in the draft because they need to find a long term answer sooner rather than later. Secondly, the need to be ready for a quarterback falling into range.

I know the latest talk today is about McCarthy to the Commanders at #2. However, I can’t help but feel sanity will return to the league soon. He isn’t, for me, a top-25 talent in this draft let alone top-two. The talk of teams trading multiple firsts for him or McCarthy going second overall is fairly remarkable. It might be that in a month the intangible qualities are getting less attention than the actual tape. And that meeting in Ann Arbour could end up being fairly useful.

Friday saw three critical pro-days take place — here are some results and takeaways

On Friday the Missouri, Michigan and Florida State pro-days took place. Several big-name players participated. Here are some results and takeaways from the three events…

Missouri pro-day

Linebacker Ty’Ron Hopper has a playing style that could interest the Seahawks. Pro-day results are never official so we can only go off what others are reporting. Hopper is a great example of how unreliable these things can be. Tony Pauline says he ran a 4.63 forty and a 4.43 short shuttle. Other reporters who were on site say he ran a 4.44 forty and a 4.18 short shuttle. That’s quite a difference.

Darius Robinson supposedly ran a 4.58 shuttle and a 7.56 three-cone. What does this mean, if the results are accurate? I never felt the comparisons to Cam Jordan were fair. Regulars from back in the day will remember I mocked Jordan #3 overall to Buffalo in my final 2011 projection and was convinced he was a top-five talent. Although Robinson and Jordan are the same size, Jordan ran a 4.76 forty, a 4.37 shuttle and a 7.07 three-cone. He was a far twitchier athlete than Robinson and they are very different players.

Based purely on tape, as I’ve been saying, I think Robinson has some Jadeveon Clowney to his game. Neither player was particularly refined as a rusher. They were both ungainly but capable of creating chaos. Clowney was a better athlete and Robinson is bigger but their styles are similar. The comparison that intrigues me the most is Arik Armstead. I do think there are similarities here.

Armstead was only 7lbs heavier than Robinson at his combine but ran a slower forty (5.10 vs 4.95) and 10-yard split (1.75 vs 1.73). Armstead’s shutle was a 4.53 compared to Robinson’s 4.58 and a 7.57 three-cone compared to Robinson’s 7.56. They share very similar testing results and Robinson, coming into the league, is similarly being viewed as a player who can play across the line.

Given his fantastic character, SEC production, physique and Senior Bowl display — if Robinson was twitchy he’d be a top-10 lock. Armstead lasted to pick #16 (funnily enough) and has had a fantastic career. I think it’s possible Robinson could emulate what he achieved — and it’s why I think he’s a name to watch as someone who could go earlier than people think. Tony reports he’ll go between picks #25-40. I think the Seahawks will really like his playing style, character and attitude.

Here’s footage of Robinson’s workout:

D.K. Metcalf was also in attendance at the Mizzou pro-day, apparently because his former receivers coach at Ole Miss is now working for the Tigers.

Michigan pro-day

Firstly, I’ve no idea why they had the players dress the way they did for this pro-day. J.J. McCarthy looked like he was either copying Justin Timberlake from the ‘Rock your Body’ video or he was preparing to bowl medium-fast for the England cricket team.

For the last few years I’ve been able to watch and study pro-day footage from all of the top quarterbacks. Not with McCarthy. There were a few highlights courtesy of the NFL Network on YouTube, with an annoying baseline running in the background. The camera focused on McCarthy so you couldn’t actually see if the throws were hitting the mark or how the passes were being delivered. There were no big flashy highlights from the event on social media.

It reminded me of Bryce Young’s pro-day a year ago. C.J. Stroud went out and put on a show right from the off — while Anthony Richardson and Will Levis took the opportunity to show off their physical prowess. Young went through the motions. He knew he didn’t have the big tools to ‘wow’ anyone and his pro-day felt like an exercise of getting it out of the way. He was going first overall and just needed to avoid any drama. This isn’t hindsight — I said it at the time. Young’s session was underwhelming. McCarthy’s pro-day, from what little we can see, felt the same.

I have two big takeaways from this. Firstly, it’s further evidence of his physical limitations — otherwise he’d be making all the trendy throws we see at these events and they’d be plastered all over Twitter. He didn’t have a great combine session — so this was probably more of the same. Secondly, I fear the league has convinced itself that McCarthy is something he isn’t because they’ve fallen for his intangible qualities.

His tape is unspectacular. He doesn’t challenge opponents vertically. He doesn’t throw with particularly good anticipation. We all know by now the positive stats in terms of scrambling completion percentage and third down conversions — and these are positives. I’d also argue that he had by far the best environment from which to succeed in a critical area such as third down — on a loaded team with weapons, an O-line and a great running back, often playing with a lead. His situation will be far different if he’s drafted by, say, the New England Patriots.

I think the league and sections of the media have talked themselves into believing McCarthy is something he isn’t based on his clear intangible qualities and winning record. There’s no doubt he is charismatic, immensely likeable and capable of leading a team. He’s also won a lot of games. But he also played for the best team, for the best coach and they dominated nearly everyone. I don’t believe he’s anything more than a day-two talent and because there’s this huge desperation for quarterbacks in the NFL — we’re seeing the hype machine going into overdrive.

It’s been incredible to hear how much people have got carried away when discussing McCarthy. So much so than even a modest, realistic appraisal of his abilities will now be viewed as a damning criticism. I think he could be pretty useful for the Vikings given their Head Coach and weapons. There’s no way I’d want to give up multiple first round picks to acquire him though. He just doesn’t have the upside to justify it, or the tape for that matter.

The fact he had a low-key pro-day that seemingly nobody was allowed to film properly feels deliberate. It was like the pro-day version of his performance against Penn State — ‘let’s just get you through this one’.

Linebacker Junior Colson didn’t work-out, just as he didn’t at the combine. He’s a solid player who is getting a bit overrated within sections of the Seahawks media and fan base. We need to see some testing numbers to gauge his upside.

Jaylen Harrell, who I interviewed recently, ran a 4.39 short shuttle according to some sources (although Tony Pauline reports a 4.33). Kris Jenkins ran a 4.63 shuttle. It’s not bad for a defensive tackle but we were promised mutant-like testing numbers from Jenkins this off-season and we haven’t really seen them. His tape was underwhelming too.

Left guard Trevor Keegan, who I recently mocked to the Seahawks in round four, also ran a 4.63 short shuttle. Right guard Zak Zinter is still recovering from his broken leg — he was hoping to do something at pro-day but isn’t quite ready. Trente Jones only managed 22 reps on the bench press, meaning we now have an underwhelming confirmed TEF score for him of 2.71.

The Seahawks reportedly met with O-liner Karsen Barnhart — a player who can play any position across the line. After the combine he had a projected 3.00 TEF score but after doing only 22 reps on the bench at pro-day, we now have a confirmed 2.87 score. He ran a 4.62 short shuttle.

Linebacker Michael Barrett ran a mediocre 4.70 forty and a 4.55 short shuttle at 232lbs, adding a 31 inch vertical. He is reportedly still recovering from a hamstring issue.

Florida State pro-day

Jared Verse didn’t work-out because he did everything at the combine. Kudos to him for completing a full set of tests — including the shuttle and three-cone. He attended pro-day to speak with teams.

I wanted to raise this tweet, though, which is interesting:

Braden Fiske was asked which teams are showing interest and although he mentions himself it’s difficult to get a read on intentions, I still think it’s worth noting that he name-checked the Seahawks as a team that is sniffing around.

The simple fact is that his combine testing performance was exceptional. There aren’t many players like him. Then you look at the tape and he stands out. He’s disruptive and his motor never stops. What’s interesting for the Seahawks is the way Florida State used Verse and Fiske on stunts to create opportunities. That was a feature for Mike Macdonald in Baltimore and Fiske is athletic enough to pull around the line and still break to the quarterback.

This is what an elite athlete at defensive tackle looks like:

If Seattle trades down — players like Fiske, Robinson and Malachi Corley (who they’re bringing in for an official visit) will come into play. It’s absolutely possible that those three names will out-perform players selected in the teens over the course of their NFL careers.

A final point on Fiske — this is a player who played lights-out for the Seminoles, shone at the Senior Bowl, changed teams upon request in Mobile to help out Jim Nagy, blew up the combine and was still out there working hard at pro-day. Teams are going to love this guy — the medical checks on his injury history will be big, though.

Some perspective on the Seahawks’ decision making with the offensive line

Generally I think most people are content with the way the Seahawks have gone about their off-season. That’s where I’m at. Yet many fans are questioning the state of the offensive line and wondering what the plan is.

They’ve signed Tremayne Anchrum, a player most people hadn’t heard of. They also added George Fant — a very useful (and cheap) insurance policy against Abraham Lucas’ recovery from knee surgery.

Aside from that there’s been no big spend on the interior O-line, or even medium spend. John Schneider instead went on Seattle Sports last week and declared he believed guards were being ‘overpaid and over-drafted’.

There is some perspective to be had here.

Baltimore, unlike Seattle, are right in the middle of a Championship window. So far this off-season they’ve allowed John Simpson to leave and sign with the Jets, while Kevin Zeitler has gone to the Lions. They also traded Morgan Moses to the Jets.

Three fifths of their O-line will be different in 2024, yet they haven’t made any moves to replace these players.

Their current line looks like this — Ronnie Stanley at left tackle, Andrew Vorhees at left guard, Tyler Linderbaum at center, Ben Cleveland at right guard and Patrick Mekari at right tackle.

This isn’t dissimilar to the Seahawks.

Vorhees is a seventh round pick who dropped due to a knee injury sustained before the last draft. He had mid-round talent with some upside. Cleveland is a former third round pick who I liked a lot in the 2021 draft but he hasn’t been able to play consistently well. Mekari was undrafted in 2019 and has a guard body with short 31 inch arms.

The Ravens, like the Seahawks, are relying on linemen to make a step up — or they’re looking to the draft. Each team has also spent big money on a defensive tackle, plus they opted not to pay big money at linebacker or safety to keep their own players.

It’s possible both teams have messed up and have a bad plan. It’s also important to note that just because the Ravens do something, it doesn’t justify the Seahawks doing it too because they hired Mike Macdonald and would probably like to emulate their playing style.

I do think it provides some context though. Not every well run team is throwing money at guard. The Ravens probably had a far better chance of signing Kevin Zeitler this off-season — a player a lot of Seahawks fans wanted — and they let him go to Detroit.

The Ravens are hoping that Vorhees can take a step in year two, just as the Seahawks hope for the same from Anthony Bradford and Olu Oluwatimi. Both teams will need to add at least one lineman in the draft — and they probably feel comfortable doing so given the great strength of the group in this class.

Baltimore’s GM Eric DeCosta hasn’t announced he finds the guard position overpaid and over-drafted — but his actions match Seattle’s. He might share the view, he’s just not sharing it publicly.

PFF’s top graded guard in 2023 was former #14 pick Chris Lindstrom. Of the next fourteen players in the rankings, only two were first rounders — Zeitler and Tyler Smith (a player the Seahawks seemingly liked a lot in 2022).

The league lacks elite guard play at the moment and is instead full of ‘decent contributors’ who were previously mid-to-late round picks.

I have 22 interior linemen graded on my board that I think will go anywhere from pick #20 to the fourth round. There are seven other players I see frequently graded a lot higher than I have them. There are some players I’m yet to watch.

Basically, there are plenty of options. There’s never been a better draft as far as I can recall to do what the Seahawks and Ravens are preparing to do. There are also some older veterans still available on the market.

Scott Huff and Ryan Grubb have a proven track record developing linemen (albeit in college) and will probably thrive on having five starters who fit their athletic and playing style preferences rather than prioritising experience. I think they actually want a young group they can grow.

Eventually they’re probably going to have to use a high-ish pick on an interior player to add that bit of extra quality — and that could come this year. I think some perspective is important though. The Seahawks are not alone in their approach. It’s not just the Ravens. The Steelers are starting a seventh rounder at left tackle, moderately priced veterans at guard and center (none big names) and a first rounder at right tackle. If you pick through every team in the league, there are probably more in this boat than in the LA Rams/Detroit Lions one.

If the Seahawks drafted, say, Troy Fautanu in just over a month — their investment in the O-line would actually be more than most. They’d just be young — which again, might actually suit the Huff/Grubb system given the apparent desire for aggression and athleticism.

I’m not sure taking Noah Fant’s $7.5m cap hit this year and using it on the line instead would’ve got you much. Plus you’d have to find another tight end with some of that money. So overall, while there may be plenty of questions asked about Seattle’s approach to the offensive line — I think it’s somewhat understandable.

New mock draft — Seahawks trade down and bolster their trenches in two-round projection

Who wants to see the same mock over and over again? If you’re a Seahawks fan, that’s pretty much what you’re getting at the moment.

If Troy Fautanu makes it to #16, it’d be a fantastic pick for Seattle. He is the player most regularly mocked to the Seahawks and for obvious reasons — the need to improve the O-line, Fautanu’s aggressive playing style plus his history with Ryan Grubb and Scott Huff. He’s one of the best players in the draft. Arguably, one of the ten best. I’m not convinced he’ll last to #16.

If both he and Taliese Fuaga are off the board, as I keep suggesting — that might be the trigger point for the Seahawks to move down.

I do think there will be opportunities to trade back in a draft where a group of top offensive tackles, cornerbacks and pass rushers (all premium positions) are projected to come off the board in the teens. It could tempt a team like Green Bay, with two second round picks, to be bold and move up nine spots using #58.

That said, you can’t guarantee a great offer. It isn’t that helpful that Houston just agreed to move down from #23 to #42 for a second rounder next year (essentially, a third round value). Thus, the Seahawks might not get the great offer they’re perhaps hoping for.

In this mock I wanted to go through that scenario and bring a different name to the table — someone nobody talks about for the Seahawks but who actually fits them in quite a big way.

You’ll also find a ‘Seahawks seven rounder’ looking at who else the Seahawks picked in this class, explanations for all the trades I made and a blurb on Seattle’s first round selection.

Round one

#1 Chicago (v/CAR) — Caleb Williams (QB, USC)
It’s never been a question that the Bears would take Williams here.

#2 Washington — Jayden Daniels (QB, LSU)
The Commanders will select Daniels and look to replicate some of the Ravens’ success with Lamar Jackson.

#3 New England — Drake Maye (QB, North Carolina)
The minute they signed Jacoby Brissett, it felt like they were setting up to draft someone who needs a year’s grace. That’s what Maye needs.

TRADE — MIN #11 – ARI #4
#4 Minnesota (v/ARI) — JJ McCarthy (QB, Michigan)
The Cardinals’ GM made it clear today he wants to trade down. The Vikings, who are analytically driven, trade into this spot to get a quarterback who excels in the things analytically driven front offices focus on.

#5 LA Chargers — Marvin Harrison Jr (WR, Ohio State)
They have a major need at receiver.

#6 New York Giants — Malik Nabers (WR, LSU)
The Giants have long needed an X-factor difference maker at receiver.

#7 Tennessee — Rome Odunze (WR, Washington)
I watched an interview with new Head Coach Brian Callahan not so long ago, where he spoke about modern NFL teams needing great receivers. He’ll let his dad coach-up the O-line and save that need for round two. Odunze is a WR1.

#8 Atlanta — Jared Verse (DE, Florida State)
I think Verse or Chop Robinson, rather than Dallas Turner, will be the first pass rusher taken.

#9 Chicago — Taliese Fuaga (T, Oregon State)
They’ve added weapons, now they have an opportunity to really bolster their offensive line to protect their #1 pick at quarterback.

#10 NY Jets — Brock Bowers (TE, Georgia)
The Jets clearly aren’t thinking long-term and are just going all-in this year, probably to try and save jobs. Bowers would give them another dynamic weapon for Aaron Rodgers.

#11 Arizona (v/MIN) — Dallas Turner (DE, Alabama)
He’s a scheme fit and he has outstanding physical traits but I thought his tape was massively underwhelming.

#12 Denver — Chop Robinson (DE, Penn State)
The Micah Parsons comparisons are not hyperbole.

#13 Las Vegas — JC Latham (T, Alabama)
He’s just too huge, strong and athletic not to go in the top-15.

#14 New Orleans — Troy Fautanu (T/G, Washington)
There’s absolutely no doubt that Fautanu is one of the best players in the draft.

#15 Indianapolis — Joe Alt (T, Notre Dame)
Chris Ballard made a point of going onto the field at the combine to get a good look at the offensive linemen. They need to protect Anthony Richardson. Alt is a bit overrated — but teams will see a solid, safe pick.

TRADE — PHI #22 – SEA #16
#16 Philadelphia (v/SEA) — Terrion Arnold (CB, Alabama)
The Eagles must get younger and better at cornerback and they move up to make sure it happens. Arnold and Quinyon Mitchell are really close battling to be CB1.

#17 Jacksonville — Brian Thomas Jr (WR, LSU)
After losing Calvin Ridley, the Jaguars secure a dynamic weapon at receiver.

#18 Cincinnati — Byron Murphy (DT, Texas)
With the way he’s looking during workouts, someone will take him early.

#19 LA Rams — Amarius Mims (T, Alabama)
The Rams are going with a ‘bigger the better’ approach to their O-line.

TRADE — BUF #28 – PIT #20
#20 Buffalo (v/PIT) — Quinyon Mitchell (CB, Toledo)
The Bills, like the Eagles, move up to secure a cornerback. Mitchell is the real deal.

#21 Miami — Laiatu Latu (DE, UCLA)
After suffering injuries at the position late in the season, the Dolphins secure another dynamic edge rusher and go for value here.

#22 Seattle (v/PHI) — Darius Robinson (DE, Missouri)
The Seahawks get the best deal they can to move down then make a surprise choice — adding ‘alpha’ Robinson who shone at the Senior Bowl and for Missouri. This is the type of pick the Ravens/Steelers would make and they get back to that approach here. The trade compensation is explained below.

TRADE GB #25 – ARI #23
#23 Green Bay (v/ARI, MIN, HOU, CLE) — Olu Fashanu (T, Penn State)
The Packers desperately need a left tackle of the future. Fashanu is talented but needs technical refinement, which is why he drops. Green Bay jump the Cowboys to make sure they get him.

#24 Dallas — Tyler Guyton (T, Oklahoma)
He could go much earlier than this but one of the tackles is going to slip a little.

#25 Arizona (v/GB) — Jordan Morgan (T/G, Arizona)
Morgan can play guard or tackle and the Cardinals are happy for him to start inside.

#26 Tampa Bay — Adonai Mitchell (WR, Texas)
The talk is the league sees him as a future #1 target and the Buccs could do with adding weapons to be as dynamic as possible.

#27 Arizona (v/HOU) — Graham Barton (T/G/C, Duke)
The Cardinals continue to improve their O-line with the versatile, athletic and consistent Barton.

#28 Pittsburgh (v/BUF) — Jackson Powers-Johnson (C, Oregon)
After trading down in the first, the Steelers add JPJ — who they’re said to be big admirers of.

#29 Detroit — Nate Wiggins (CB, Clemson)
He’s been described as a poor man’s Devon Witherspoon and we know the Lions liked Witherspoon a year ago.

#30 Baltimore — Edgerrin Cooper (LB, Texas A&M)
The Ravens need some dynamism next to Roquan Smith after losing Patrick Queen and as a WILL, Cooper can pin his ears back and play in attack mode.

#31 San Francisco — Jer’Zhan Newton (DT, Illinois)
The 49ers love to replenish their interior D-line in the draft and they’ve lost Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw this year.

#32 Kansas City — Ladd McKonkey (WR, Georgia)
He’s had a perfect draft process so far and you wouldn’t bet against him going earlier than this.

Round two

#33 Carolina — Keon Coleman (WR, Florida State)
#34 New England — Roger Rosengarten (T, Washington)
#35 Arizona — Malachi Corley (WR, Western Kentucky)
#36 Washington — Ben Sinnott (TE, Kansas State)
#37 LA Chargers — Junior Colson (LB, Michigan)
#38 Tennessee — Kingsley Suamataia (T, BYU)
#39 Carolina (v/NYG) — Cooper DeJean (S/CB, Iowa)
#40 Chicago (v/CHI) — Cooper Beebe (G, Kansas State)
#41 Green Bay (v/NYJ) — Braden Fiske (DT, Florida State)
#42 Houston (v/MIN) — Troy Franklin (WR, Oregon)
#43 Atlanta — Kool-aid McKinstry (CB, Alabama)
#44 Las Vegas — Michael Penix Jr (QB, Washington)
#45 New Orleans (v/DEN) — Xavier Legette (WR, South Carolina)
#46 Indianapolis — Xavier Worthy (WR, Texas)
#47 NY Giants (v/SEA) — Kamari Lassiter (CB, Georgia)
#48 Jacksonville — Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (S, Texas Tech)
#49 Cincinnati — Jacob Cowing (WR, Arizona)
#50 Philadelphia (v/NO) — Brandon Coleman (T/G, TCU)
#51 Pittsburgh — Roman Wilson (WR, Michigan)
#52 LA Rams — Spencer Rattler (QB, South Carolina)
#53 Philadelphia — Javon Bullard (S, Georgia)
#54 Cleveland — Payton Wilson (LB, NC State)
#55 Miami — Ja’Tavion Sanders (TE, Texas)
#56 Jacksonville (v/DAL) — Ruke Orhorhoro (DT, Clemson)
#57 Tampa Bay — Ennis Rakestraw Jr (CB, Missouri)
#58 Green Bay — T’Vondre Sweat (DT, Texas)
TRADE #59 Denver (v/HOU) — Bo Nix (QB, Oregon)
#60 Buffalo — Zach Frazier (C, West Virginia)
#61 Detroit — Ricky Pearsall (WR, Florida)
#62 Baltimore — Tyler Nubin (S, Minnesota)
#63 San Francisco — Jalen McMillan (WR, Washington)
#64 Kansas City — Mekhi Wingo (DT, LSU)

The trades explained

For the purpose of this mock, I’m looking at a scenario where the trade market in round one isn’t red hot — with the Houston/Minnesota deal influencing negotiations. If dropping down 20 spots only nets you a future second rounder, that could be used as leverage by teams looking to move up.

Minnesota (#11) trades with Arizona (#4)
The Vikings give up #23 and next year’s first round selection to move up to #4 so that they can select quarterback J.J. McCarthy. The Cardinals are making it very clear they want to move down. The Vikings know if they trade up to #4, they’ll be guaranteed one of the top quarterbacks.

Philadelphia (#22) trades with Seattle (#16)
The Eagles give up a fourth round pick (#120) plus a 2025 third rounder to move up six spots for Terrion Arnold. It’s critical the Eagles upgrade at cornerback and this kind of move would enable them to have their pick of the crop. Nobody was willing to give the Seahawks a second rounder to move down, so they take the best offer they can get and that includes getting more stock for next year.

Buffalo (#28) trades with Pittsburgh (#20)
The Bills give up two fourth round picks (#128, #133) and a sixth (#189) to move up eight spots for Quinyon Mitchell. After watching the Eagles trade up for Terrion Arnold, the Bills don’t hang about and make a similar move to ensure they land Mitchell.

Green Bay (#25) trades with Arizona (#23)
The Packers chuck the Cardinals a fourth rounder to jump the Cowboys in order to get Olu Fashanu.

Denver (#76) trades with Houston (#59)
The Broncos give up their third rounder in 2025 to move up 17 spots to select Bo Nix. Many people believe Nix is ideally suited for Sean Payton’s system but the #12 pick is far too early for him. Payton’s Saints were very aggressive trading away future picks and they did it last year in Denver too — giving the Seahawks their third rounder in 2024.

Thoughts on Seattle’s top pick

I’m guessing it’s going to be one that a lot of people aren’t fond of but Darius Robinson is a more likely Seahawks target than perhaps people think.

Firstly, we know they’ve placed a major focus on character. They are not compromising and haven’t for the last two drafts. Take the pick of Derick Hall. The official team website revealed they had a first round grade on him. Hall had fantastic traits and showed an aggressive playing style on tape. He also had A++ character. He was all football, all the time.

You might read that and think about Hall’s difficult rookie season and feel it was a bad judgement call by the Seahawks. Park that for a second and focus on the mindset of the team. It feels like they are trying to find ‘alpha’s’. Devon Witherspoon was definitely one. Hall, whether he played poorly last year or not, most definitely was one too. At the time of the pick I mentioned he reminded me of James Harrison the former Steeler. For what it’s worth it took a bit of time for Harrison to settle into the league. Hall looked like a Raven/Steeler.

I’ve spent a lot of time studying Robinson this week. Firstly, there’s no doubt in my mind he’s an A++ character. They call him ‘Mr. Mizzou’ at Missouri. Watch any of his interviews at the combine and he just excels. On tape he is all-out effort on every down. There’s no ‘snaps off’ with him. He was highly productive last season — getting a sack against every SEC opponent he played against for a super-tough Missouri team.

John Schneider mentioned in a recent interview that it mattered to him for a player to play in his team’s Bowl game. Robinson did, helping the Tigers beat Ohio State in a dominant defensive performance (he had another sack in that game).

Robinson was the star of the Senior Bowl 1v1’s, winning in numerous ways. His length, power, quickness, motor and repertoire all shone. He lined up inside and out and just created carnage all week in Mobile:

I interviewed Mekhi Wingo at LSU, one of his best friends. Wingo told me that Robinson basically was his mentor and taught him how to be a pro. Several players have taken the time to speak highly of him during this draft process on their social media accounts and he gives off a vibe that he could quickly develop into a heart-and-soul leader for whichever team drafts him.

How good is he as a player and how would he fit in Seattle? I think his tape shows some similarities to Jadeveon Clowney. He’s not the same twitchy athlete as Clowney but they have that same ungainly ability to just wreak havoc. He’s also bigger than Clowney at 285lbs — but they share that same ability to move across the line and win in different ways. I do think Robinson has the ability to wreck games — perhaps not in the most refined, cultured way — but he’s a D-liner. It’s supposed to be a bit rough and ready.

In terms of his fit — I appreciate the Ravens don’t have anyone like this. Yet for a coach in Mike Macdonald who wants to mix between three and four man fronts, it’s hard to see why Robinson wouldn’t fit. He’s an ideal inside/out type. Putting him in the same defensive front as Leonard Williams would create ‘F-the-game-up’ opportunities — at a time when San Francisco and the Rams might be losing some of their ability to do that from the inside, with Arik Armstead now in Jacksonville and Aaron Donald retiring.

Further to this, it does feel like the Seahawks are lacking that one monster on the defense who just brings everything together. Think Kam. That guy who everyone looks up to and knows — he’s going to be the most violent, aggressive, committed player every week. The player other teams fear.

Kirby Smart definitely felt that way about him:

Remember what we highlighted yesterday. Seattle’s mantra in the draft for the last two years was ‘stick to the board’. It’s been high character. Don’t reach for specific positions or needs. It feels like the trenches are now more important in terms of resource spend.

Robinson could be the final piece to an angry, aggressive, disruptive D-line that nobody wants to play. He could become the alpha on this team. He could easily be one of the top players on their board. There aren’t many players like this guy.

Seahawks seven round projection

Here’s a mock for the rest of Seattle’s draft:

R1 — #22 Darius Robinson (DE, Missouri)
R3 — #81 Trevin Wallace (LB, Kentucky)
R4 — #102 Trevor Keegan (G, Michigan)
R4 — #118 Cade Stover (TE, Ohio State)
R4 — #120 Dominique Hampton (S, Washington)
R6 — #179 Jarrett Kingston (T/G, USC)
R6 — #192 Tyrice Knight (LB, UTEP)
R7 — #235 Emani Bailey (RB, TCU)
2025 Philadelphia R3 pick

I used the Sportskeeda Mock Draft Simulator for this and tried to ignore players who wouldn’t obviously be available (eg Malachi Corley in round four).

Trevin Wallace would give them a very athletic, hard-hitting middle linebacker to add to the depth and competition at that position. He could be the long-term future at the position.

I’ve taken Schneider’s words on the radio last week literally about guards and determined that he, Scott Huff, Ryan Grubb and advisor Steve Hutchinson will be able to ‘find a guard’. Trevor Keegan had 44 starts for an award-winning Michigan line that they picked from a year ago (Olu Oluwatimi). He had 37 starts at left guard. I thought he had an excellent combine. It’s this type of player, who should be available early on day three, that makes me think Schneider has confidence he can find guys who fit.

The Seahawks need another pass-catching tight end and Cade Stover fits the mentality, agility testing and character traits they look for (he also has excellent catching technique).

Dominique Hampton is physical, intelligent and versatile and would be a great pick in round four. Jarrett Kingston offers the ability to play multiple positions on the offensive line. Tyrice Knight offers more depth at linebacker plus special teams value and Emani Bailey has the makings of a terrific third down back.

The Seahawks didn’t get a great offer to trade down from #16 but adding another pick this year and getting a third rounder in 2025 from the Eagles might help them — especially if they need to start thinking about being aggressive to land a quarterback of the future.

It’s a different mock to most — but the picks, I think, make sense based around the philosophy and the type of player the Seahawks have been drafting for the last two years. Let me know your thoughts in the comments section.

The Seahawks are meeting with receiver Malachi Corley and what it possibly means

It was reported today that Western Kentucky receiver Malachi Corley is taking an ‘official 30’ visit to the Seahawks. It’s the second confirmed meeting, following the news that UTEP linebacker Tyrice Knight will also be travelling to Seattle.

What does the apparent interest in Corley suggest?

I think it’s indicative of a potential plan for the Seahawks in this draft. I was speaking to a source I really respect today and he made a reasonable point, whether you agree or not. This class is too good on day two. The only justification in his mind for not trading down would be if you’re taking a quarterback of the future at #16. Otherwise, move down.

Again, just park your own personal view on that take for a second and let’s imagine that’s how the Seahawks feel. They might believe they’re better off picking three times between, say, #25-81 rather than just once at #16 and then waiting 65 picks to select again. You’d have to believe the player at #16 was truly something special. Now, you can make an argument for some of the players in this class fitting that description. The Seahawks might not see it the same way.

I see both sides. Another former #16 pick, Brian Burns, would’ve been an excellent addition for the Seahawks in 2019. Instead they had a pick in the 20’s, traded down further, and took L.J. Collier. The last thing the Seahawks want to do is watch someone else get a great player when they own #16, only for John Schneider to settle on quantity and whiff on another Collier/Marquise Blair double (for context, I didn’t dislike either pick at the time).

On the other hand, the history of the #16 pick is pretty boom or bust. Along with Burns we’ve seen Marlon Humphrey, Taylor Decker, Zack Martin and Ryan Kerrigan taken at #16 over the last few years. We’ve also had E.J. Manuel, Kevin Johnson and Zaven Collins. Last year’s #16 pick, Emmanuel Forbes, endured a baptism of fire as a rookie in Washington. I’m sure plenty of teams picking right in the middle of round one believed they’d got the guy who slipped through the elite cracks but the results have been a mixed bag.

If the Seahawks were to move down aggressively — meaning into the late first round or beyond — they might be able to get a decent haul to fill out their board. In this draft, that could put them into a fairly enticing range where some of the second round picks stand as much chance of succeeding as those in the mid-first.

Corley is a good example of that type of player but he’s not alone. Lance Zierlein compares him to Deebo Samuel and others have said the same thing. Purely based on his frame, you can see why that connection is being made. On tape he runs through contact brilliantly, he finishes every reception, he’s adept at a lot of the modern route concepts, he produces terrific YAC potential and yet when he operates in a more conventional receiver role he knows how to get open.

He’s different to what the Seahawks have and anyone with the upside of Samuel warrants consideration.

Do I think Seattle’s top pick will be a receiver this year? No. However, it’s also worth remembering their approach from the last two drafts. They’ve focused on best player available and sticking to their board.

I’d recommend reading the excellent ‘Inside the draft room’ article from a year ago, where John Boyle reported nuggets of info from, well, the draft room. It’s good a reminder of their process. They had needs but didn’t reach. They let their grading do the talking. They added players at non-critical need areas. There’s no reason to think anything will be different this year.

If Malachi Corley was extremely highly rated on their final board, to the extent you think he’s a top-20 player and you can get him at, say, #40 — that’s just good value. Even if you don’t agree with that opinion — that’s the ideal process for any team in the draft. Don’t force needs, focus on the talent.

Part of the problem with their 2019 draft was the focus on need. As it happens, that was Deebo Samuel’s draft year. They’ve played him every year since. I wonder if they’ve rued their decision to focus on the glaring need (D-line) rather than being able to pair Samuel with D.K. Metcalf, who they traded up to select in round two?

Corley, for me, fits into a grading range that contains a lot of players. There are a ton of receivers in this group unsurprisingly. It’s where the likes of Ben Sinnott will slot and I don’t think the media realises how early he’s going to go. He could be a surprise target for Seattle too. They might see an alpha in Darius Robinson — whose rushing style is ungainly at times but his disruption also feels somewhat akin to a poor-man’s bigger version of Jadeveon Clowney — just with more consistency. This is also where I think Cooper Beebe and Jackson Powers-Johnson could fit in, plus Braden Fiske and others.

This is the glorious mystery of a new era combined with Seattle’s approach to the draft over the last two years. I still think if they stay at #16 the chances are it’ll be an offensive tackle — but I wouldn’t rule out one of the dynamic edge rushers. If they trade down, it could be any position. Whoever is top of the board. It could even be someone like Quinyon Mitchell or Terrion Arnold.

This is where I tend to agree with the source I referenced before. Unless it’s a potential franchise quarterback you’re taking at #16, you have to consider trading down in this class. It’ll be a very tricky call to make if you really like someone available at #16 — but the Seahawks can ill-afford to wait until pick #81 to select again. Not because it’ll mean missing out on specific positions on day two. Simply because they won’t be able to keep enhancing their roster and adding talent via ‘best player available’ — the plan that is always the key to good drafting.

A final point — we all acknowledge left guard is a glaring hole at the moment. I also sense many fans are not enthused by the idea of Olu Oluwatimi and Anthony Bradford taking on bigger roles in 2024. However — it seems clear the Seahawks targeted these two players in this range specifically, believing they could get value. Boyle’s piece from earlier also highlighted Seattle’s interest in fourth round center Jake Andrews, who was selected by New England. It seems the Seahawks — aided by Steve Hutchinson as an advisor — believe they can possibly find ‘their guys’. I’m not sure, with Hutchinson advising, we have enough evidence so far to say this isn’t true.

If Oluwatimi and Bradford both really come along under the guidance of Scott Huff, it will — to an extent — justify Schneider’s comments about interior offensive linemen being over-drafted and overpaid.

This is a draft class full of very interesting interior O-liners who are set to be taken between rounds 3-5. That’s another reason for moving down, getting extra stock — to be able to add talent and competition to the interior line, while also addressing other positions too.

Braden Fiske could be a target for the Seahawks if their top pick isn’t an offensive lineman

A couple of people sent me this tweet from Jim Nagy yesterday, in response to my article on not overthinking Seattle’s likely positional targets in the draft:

As Jim says, it’s only a guess. He has a view on what the Seahawks might do that he isn’t going to share publicly.

I have a couple of thoughts on this. There are clearly circumstances that could lead to the Seahawks not to take an offensive lineman first. Firstly, a potential run on the position before they select. I think there’s a very good chance Taliese Fuaga and Troy Fautanu are off the board by #16. That could be the trigger point to trade down, or capitalise on someone else who falls into range.

For example, if the run on tackles pushes the top pass rushers down the board, the Seahawks might sense an opportunity and thus, they could go in a different direction. I really like Chop Robinson and Jared Verse. Others are big fans of Dallas Turner. Laiatu Latu’s stock also feels really secure in the #11-20 range.

Secondly, the aforementioned trade down scenario. Not enough people discuss the tiers within this class. You have, in my opinion, a very clear top-seven players. The next tier down isn’t far behind. I have eight players in tier two. The Seahawks are right on the border of that group.

I appreciate they might view things completely different to me (they probably do) but let’s imagine their tiers and numbers are similar. It’s possible they won’t have a significant grade difference between the player they’d take at #16 or the player they’d take later in round one.

On top of this, there’s the black hole on their draft board between picks #16 and #81. The 2024 draft is too good to not pick in that void. So the question will be — is the player available to you at #16 so good that you are prepared to wait 65 picks to select again? Or do you try and trade down with the idea that you might be able to get two or three players instead of one at #16?

The other thing to consider is you need a partner to trade with. I’ve had a number of people say to me it’s a certainty they’ll trade down. Not if the interest in moving up isn’t there, or the right offer isn’t forthcoming. Trading down ten spots for a third rounder beyond pick #70 won’t be tempting.

If they do trade down from #16 — as I noted in yesterday’s piece, it opens up the possibility of going ‘best player available’ regardless of positional need. I think at #16 an offensive tackle or pass rusher is likely. If you’re picking between #20-40, then all bets are off. In that instance, go for value.

I do think at some point in this draft they will select a right tackle. That could be Roger Rosengarten or Caedan Wallace on day two, to give a couple of examples. We’ve all heard John Schneider’s comments about guards being overpaid and over-drafted. We’ll soon find out if that was misdirection or what he truly believes. The way the Seahawks have handled the guard position in free agency suggests he was being up front and honest.

Let’s go back to that top pick though. If they move down into the #20-40 range, there are several things they could look at. I’m not convinced Byron Murphy will go quite as early as some are predicting and he could last beyond #20. There may come a point where the physical toughness and explosive qualities of Darius Robinson becomes intriguing for them. Ben Sinnott, in my opinion, is going to go in the 30’s. Keep an eye on him. I see a lot of mocks with Chop Robinson going in the 20’s or 30’s. It makes me laugh every time because he’s too good for that. If I’m wrong and these mocks are right though, what an opportunity that would be.

Then there’s also the quarterback position. It won’t be surprising at all if the Seahawks move back with the intention of selecting Michael Penix Jr in a range they are more comfortable taking him (assuming Penix Jr isn’t off the board before #16 — as we’ve mentioned, his draft range feels bigger than most). I do think, though, that the Sam Howell trade is indicative of an expectation within the front office that they probably won’t be able to get a quarterback this year.

There’s another name I want to mention as a wildcard. Florida State’s Braden Fiske. Although he generated a lot of buzz after his performance at the combine, it almost seems to have been forgotten a few weeks on.

I’ve been doing a live blog on the combine for 14 years. Fiske’s workout at Indianapolis is one of the best I’ve seen in that period.

I can’t remember seeing a defensive tackle at his size move around the field like he did. His change of direction ability at 292lbs is stunning. On one drill where you have to go in and out of the bags, then bend round the edge and straighten to tackle a final bag, he showed the balance and control of a top-end 250lbs edge rusher. They simulcast his effort alongside Byron Murphy and he was quicker across every section of the drill and he could bend around the edge, while Murphy had to almost stop to change direction. Further to that, his figure-eight drill was excellent for a man his size and his bag drill — stepping in and out of the bags — was possibly the best I’ve ever seen by a defensive lineman.

Here’s a little snippet of what I’m talking about:

In terms of testing — he ran a 4.37 short shuttle which is one of the best times ever by a defensive lineman. Aaron Donald ran a 4.39. Cam Jordan also ran a 4.37. He’s also highly explosive — jumping a 33.5 inch vertical and a 9-9 broad jump. His 10-yard split was a blistering 1.68 for his size.

None of this would matter if the tape didn’t match-up. His get-off and first step quickness is reminiscent of the top defensive linemen. His motor never runs cold — there’s evidence of him chasing down quarterbacks to the sideline long after the snap. He can play stout against the run — engaging, slipping blocks and filling gaps. You are going to get 100% effort in every game, from a player with elite-level athleticism at his position. This is the definition of a potential difference maker.

When he’s given a gap he’ll attack it and you’ve constantly got to monitor where he’s lining up because his get-off enables him to shoot into the backfield better than most. Even when he has to go 1v1 vs an interior lineman, he’ll generally push the pocket to create disruption. I don’t think he’s ever going to be an elite swim/rip specialist. Yet his combination of brute force, stoutness, twitch, fight to get the absolute most out of every rep and when you give him a sniff of a runaway to the quarterback — he’ll just explode through that hole and make a play.

Here’s Nagy on Fiske, speaking on a Bills podcast at the combine:

The short arms (31 inches) are a concern and he’ll face challenges at the next level to get off blocks if he’s losing battles early because he can’t press, keep himself clean and stay in the play. However, the Ravens under Mike Macdonald utilised Michael Pierce (31.5 inch arms) effectively. Broderick Watson also has only 32.5 inch arms. It’s unclear whether they’ll view this as an issue.

Statistically Fiske isn’t anything to write home about. He only had six sacks (although Florida State were so dominant that might’ve impacted stat-collecting). His 6.9 PRP (PFF’s formula that combines sacks, hits and hurries relative to how many times they rush the passer) is comparable to Jer’Zhan Newton (6.8) but it’s behind Michael Hall Jr and Ruke Orhorhoro (both 7.1) and well behind Byron Murphy (9.6). It’s worth noting that Fiske isn’t even listed in the top-200 for ‘pass rush snaps’ in PFF’s system. Apparently he had a quarter of the attempts to get after the passer that Murphy had at Texas. A different role at the next level could lead to greater production.

The other thing to consider is character. Fiske’s is outstanding. The Seahawks have placed a huge emphasis on character and view it through a ‘no compromises’ lens these days. If we’re talking about character traits, Fiske is an A+.

There’s just so much to like about his profile. There are players who have all of the physical traits to be excellent yet somehow they slip through the cracks and go much later than they should do. Aaron Donald had no business lasting to #13. T.J. Watt shouldn’t have been pick #30. Lamar Jackson shouldn’t have been pick #32. Chris Jones was pick #37. There are countless examples. There are also plenty of these types who don’t achieve greatness. Could we be looking back in a few years and wondering why Fiske lasted as long as he did?

There are key things to consider. How much better is Fiske compared to the likes of Orhorhoro, Hall Jr and Mekhi Wingo — all of which could be available later? Then there are the reported injury concerns. Tony Pauline noted at the combine that Payton Wilson and Fiske had received ‘ugly’ medical grades. Teams view these things differently and no final decision will be made until shortly before the draft, when the doctors consult with the front office to determine which players should be dropped on boards for health reasons — or even removed from consideration. Fiske does have an extensive injury history — in High School he suffered a bulging lumbar disc and had shoulder and elbow surgeries.

Here’s what Bob McGinn’s scouting sources say about Fiske:

“You don’t want to like him because he doesn’t look awesome,” said one scout. “But this guy plays every down like he’s going to the firing squad after the down’s over. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen anybody play this hard. The lack of length shows up as a pass rusher, but for his size he’s powerful and a penetrator. He gets behind the line of scrimmage. He can run. Really good athlete. He can bend. He’s going to be a really good player. It wouldn’t even surprise me to see him go ahead of Murphy. This guy’s a f—— buzzsaw.”

“Has short arms but uses his hands well,” a second scout said. “Outstanding worker. Has to be kicked out of the weight room. Blue-collar pro mindset. More disruptive than productive as a rusher. Gets stuck on bigger and longer offensive linemen at times.”

“He just goes all-out, all-out, all-out,” said a third scout. “The more you watch him the more you like him.”

On Byron Murphy, it’s also worth noting that McGinn’s sources spoke glowingly about him too:

“His athletic ability and quickness are amazing … off the charts,” one scout said. “Plays his ass off. He’s destructive. The two-gap stuff is not really his deal but he’ll drop a knee in there, he’ll hang in there. Pass rush, his power and explosiveness through the gap, that’s his deal. In this modern NFL, with all the throwing, he’s going to be a problem. I like him better than (Calijah) Kancey from last year, who was another undersized guy. Much better player. Stronger. Kancey kind of came on a little because he worked out like a phenom, but I don’t care how this guy worked out.”

“Disciplined both run and pass,” another scout said. “Excellent straight-line power pass rusher. Thing that worries me is he’s going to be 6-0 and weigh only 300. You will have to team him up with a (much bigger) guy. Can Murphy play square? Yes, I think he can play square.”

“High character,” said a third scout. “He’s sudden, flexible, plays on his feet. Hands and feet work well together. Got pass rush for an inside guy. He’s fairly strong for his size but he’s more of a movement-oriented scheme player, of which there are many nowadays. He’s the best one.”

Murphy, to be blunt, has a fantastic arse and thighs combo that will have the league very intrigued by his explosive lower body power. For a player who lacks height and length, he still looks fantastic. As noted earlier, his analytical success has been charted by PFF — he’s the most consistent pass rush threat and their highest graded interior defender. He too, if he’s available after a trade down, could be firmly on the radar.

Fiske also had a successful Senior Bowl in Mobile:

With the injury history and the short arms it’s hard to project where he’ll go in the draft, even if his talent and traits screams top-40 lock. Daniel Jeremiah had him at #37 in his latest top-50 board.

I don’t think it’s beyond the realms of possibility that the Seahawks trade down once or twice and consider a player like Fiske. It’d create quite a duo with Leonard Williams when they want to rush with four and a front three with Jarran Reed or a true nose tackle (Johnathan Hankins — who signed today — or Cam Young) could be productive on early downs.

If you’re comfortable with the medicals he’d give you a productive player who can ‘do a job’ with the potential to be so much more due to his physical traits. If you trade down once or even twice to fill out your board and take him with your first selection — you’d be having a strong BPA start to round out the quality to your roster.

It’s just so hard to project these things. We’ll never know how they view Fiske’s short arms or the medicals. It’s quite easy to project that they’ll like Troy Fautanu because of the playing style, talent, health and history with the offensive staff. A lot of Seahawks fans and media are on the Junior Colson hype train — but we haven’t got any testing numbers for him and he came in slightly lighter (238lbs) than expected at the combine. I think he’s become a little bit overrated. He’s not the rangiest player but he’s tough and typically ‘Michigan’. He’s a very solid player — but until we have testing numbers it’s hard to gauge his upside.

Fiske to me is very intriguing, as are others. If Jim Nagy is right and they go in a different direction than O-line early — it might be because they traded down and BPA available when they pick is someone like Fiske.

One other thing to consider — at some point between now and September the Seahawks are going to have to create some cap space. Trading Dre’Mont Jones after June 1st saves them $11.5m. It’s very possible they take a defensive lineman in this draft with the intention of that player being a better schematic fit for Macdonald, while producing a chance to create cap space. You won’t get much back for Jones — it’d be a salary dump. A late rounder, a future conditional pick or maybe a player swap. But it feels like Seattle’s most realistic way to create necessary space down the line, unless he just blows the new staff away during OTA’s and camp.

I still firmly believe with the lack of significant activity on the O-line — plus the rumoured interest in Johnathan Hankins and Randy Gregory — that the Seahawks are very likely to select an offensive lineman early, particularly if one of their top targets is available. If they do move down though, as I said yesterday, they could easily pivot to BPA. Fiske might be too much of a medical risk but if he isn’t — and they can see beyond the lack of length — his upside potential is so high that he warrants some consideration for the Seahawks.

An offensive line pick at #16? Unlikely to draft a quarterback? Abe Lucas moving to guard? Some Seahawks notes…

Here are some thoughts on where I think the Seahawks are at, following main section of free agency and with just over a month to go until the draft…

— With the current state of the roster, especially the lack of additions to the offensive line, it seems pretty obvious at this stage that the Seahawks will go O-line at #16 or trade down.

— I think it’s less likely that they’ll take a quarterback after the Sam Howell trade but wouldn’t rule it out completely. I think it’s possible the Seahawks share the apparent league consensus view that there’s a top-four in this quarterback class and that other players, such as Michael Penix Jr and Bo Nix, are day two picks. With no second round pick currently, and no guarantee they’ll be able to trade down, they couldn’t afford to go into the draft without an adequate backup quarterback. Now they’re hedged against missing out in the draft.

— The lack of interior offensive line investment in free agency speaks to the strength and depth of the O-line positions in this draft. Free agent additions and re-signings at linebacker and tight end also speak to the weaker depth at those two positions. The Seahawks signed former seventh round pick Tremayne Anchrum for depth purposes today — but it changes very little in terms of the draft.

— The willingness to move down from #78 to #102, coupled with already spending their second round pick on Leonard Williams, perhaps speaks to their desire to trade down and acquire extra picks. Day two feels like a strong area for adding players and it’s hard to imagine they’ll be comfortable picking at #16 and then having to wait until #81. That said, there’s always a chance a ‘can’t miss’ player lasts to #16 — or a good trade offer isn’t forthcoming. After all, once you trade out of the top-20 in this class, there’s going to be a drop-off in talent.

— I think when we’re projecting what they’ll do in round we shouldn’t overthink it. The strength of round one is offensive tackle. John Schneider has often bemoaned the lack of good, quality offensive linemen coming into the league. They have needs on the offensive line. If they stay at #16, it’s almost certainly going to be an O-liner.

— Is pass rusher an alternative? It could be, purely based on the fact there are four good edge rushers in the draft plus a defensive tackle in Byron Murphy that a lot of people like. However, the investment in Leonard Williams plus the fact the Seahawks already have four edge rushers on their roster that they’ve already invested in, suggests O-line is a lot more likely.

— A respected source mentioned to me over the weekend that when Jaxson Kirkland — once a highly rated offensive tackle — suffered injuries and saw his college career stall, he was moved inside by Scott Huff to play guard. Kirkland was an athletic, tall guard at Washington (he’s 6-7 in height). It was put to me that the Seahawks could do the same with Abraham Lucas. Many evaluators projected Lucas to guard at the next level. I never agreed with that and thought he was tailor-made for right tackle. However, if the injuries prevent him from playing his best football at the edge, a move inside could be a way to manage the situation. This would afford the Seahawks an opportunity to draft a right tackle at #16 if they don’t move down. With Lucas competing at guard and a new highly drafted right tackle on the roster, this could be a way to upgrade Seattle’s O-line.

— Further to this, Nate Kalepo played left guard for Washington in 2023. He’s 6-6 and 327lbs — so he also has a similar frame to Lucas. He was an offensive tackle convert from High School. There’s really no reason to believe Lucas isn’t a fit at guard for Scott Huff and it’s possible they’re earmarking him for that role.

— I think Seattle’s 1a and 1b preferences for the #16 pick are Taliese Fuaga and Troy Fautanu. They both have the athletic qualities, the aggressive playing style and personality that the Seahawks are looking for up front. I suspect both players would be used at right tackle. Although Fautanu is regularly touted for a move inside to guard — he’s played fantastic football at tackle and I think there’s every chance they would play him on the right side, at least initially. Both players would be great picks. The only problem is, sadly, I’m not convinced either lasts to #16.

— If both of these players are gone, that could be the trigger to trade down. They could also look at Amarius Mims and Tyler Guyton as right tackle alternatives. I suspect J.C. Latham won’t last to #16. If they do trade down, don’t be surprised if they still draft a right tackle and follow through with the plan above. Roger Rosengarten could be a day two target, among others. Penn State’s Caedan Wallace could be an option.

— If they trade down, it could simply be a ‘BPA’ scenario with no strict position in mind. John Schneider’s comments last week about guards being ‘overpaid and over-drafted’ doesn’t suggest they’ll be rushing to the podium for Cooper Beebe or Jackson Powers-Johnson (who I think many teams will view as a guard because of his 330lbs frame). That said, both players might be sufficiently good enough to be taken. I’m a huge fan of Beebe and see some similarities to Quenton Nelson. Trading down, though, could present a situation like a year ago where receiver wasn’t a huge need but they took Jaxon Smith-Njigba anyway based on grading. So everything could be on the table if they move down, especially if they get more than one extra pick.

— If the Seahawks don’t address the O-line early — and trade down to add more picks — let’s not forget that it’s a deep draft at all three offensive line positions. They’ll be able to get stuff done here.

— My guess is they’ll like Michael Penix Jr but possibly not as a first round pick. There does seem to be a fairly general consensus that he will be a day two selection. If the Seahawks grade him in round two, they almost certainly won’t reach. Thus, they’ll probably only feel comfortable taking him if they trade down from #16 and get a pick in a range where they feel comfortable selecting him.

— To recap — my prediction as of today is they go offensive tackle at #16 if they stay put and if they trade down, it could open up a pure ‘BPA’ scenario with multiple positions being on the table. I think Fuaga and Fautanu will be key targets and if they’re gone, the likes of Mims and Guyton could come into play. I think they feel it’s going to be tricky to draft a quarterback in a range where they’re comfortable taking one in this class and that’s why they made the move for Howell. Abe Lucas could be moved to guard and there’s evidence that Scott Huff likes to use players like Lucas in that position anyway.

I discussed some of these topics in a video published yesterday, check it out below:

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