Another thing to remember

December 9th, 2022 | Written by Rob Staton

Further to my point earlier in the week about how people view the quarterback class, I wanted to raise another point.

I’m seeing a lot of weird and wonderful projections at the moment regarding Florida’s Anthony Richardson. The thought of him lasting into round two seems a bit fanciful to me — but we’ve been here before.

For some reason the mainstream media consistently struggles with the unpolished or players that emerge without years of limelight games in college football.

If you play for Alabama for two or three years (see: Tua Tagovailoa, Bryce Young) then a lot of possible flaws will be overlooked. In other cases — extreme talent will be dismissed as ‘raw’ or ‘needing a lot of work’.

There are two glaring examples of this.

Whatever you think of Kyler Murray today — it was clear at Oklahoma that he was a special player. He did things we haven’t seen other players do. His talent was, frankly, outrageous. He was an outstanding playmaker with arm talent, creativity, scrambling dynamism and he was destined to be a very high pick.

The mainstream media instead focused on the potential of him playing baseball for longer than was necessary and when he eventually committed to football, it was the norm to see him being mocked in the late first or early second round.

In this article, Mel Kiper had him listed below a cluster of other quarterbacks — including Ryan Finley and Jarrett Stidham.

He was picked in the first round in the MLB draft and got a $4.6 million signing bonus with the Oakland Athletics. The reason Murray is on this list? There’s at least a small chance that he tries to play both sports or gives up baseball for football. If he commits to football — and gives up that guaranteed money from the A’s — McShay believes he will be a first-round pick, while Kiper thinks he’d go on Day 2 in April. Murray is a dynamic dual-threat quarterback, but his true height is an issue for football. Not so much on the baseball diamond.

It soon became very clear that Murray was going to the Cardinals with the #1 pick and the media changed its tune. Kiper was not alone, however, in projecting Murray to the second round.

There’s an even more glaring example.

Patrick Mahomes wasn’t even listed in Daniel Jeremiah’s top-50 prospects in his February list ahead of the 2017 draft. That wouldn’t be so bad — but in an updated version in April, Mahomes still wasn’t listed in the top-50.

Deshone Kizer, however, was ranked on both occasions.

In Jeremiah’s April 2017 mock draft, he eventually did include Mahomes in round one — at #27 overall. Deshaun Watson wasn’t included in the first frame. They ended up being the #10 and #12 picks respectively.

Mahomes himself revealed he was given a second round grade by the draft committee.

The excellent Lance Zierlein graded Mahomes at a 6.30 — a lower grade than Drew Lock (6.40). In his report, Zierlein noted:

Mahomes will be a work in progress, but he’s a high ceiling, low floor prospect.

Which, funnily enough, is exactly what is being said about Anthony Richardson.

None of this means Richardson is guaranteed to go in the top-10 as I suspect he will. It definitely doesn’t mean he’ll go first overall — which I think is a possibility.

What it does show, however, is that the mainstream media has previous with underrating extreme potential due to a perception of players being ‘raw’ or simply not being seen as ‘big names’ in college football for long enough to earn some hype. The evidence, in fact, shows that teams are prepared to invest in players with a big upside. Especially at the most important position in the sport.

If you’ve enjoyed the work and want to support the blog so that I can consider options for the pre-draft coverage in the new year, please consider supporting the site via Patreon — (click here)

155 Responses to “Another thing to remember”

  1. Marcus says:

    Rob,

    Do you mind sharing how you’ve developed an eye for what to watch for on film? Did you “self-smart” yourself or did you have people to learn from?

    • Rob Staton says:

      To be honest I just watch a lot of it. I don’t do anything special — just commit most of my free time to it, like an absolute saddo 😂

      • Elmer says:

        Josh Allen could be another example of being underrated
        , don’t you think?

        • Rob Staton says:

          In fairness plenty were projecting him to go where he did

          • Mel says:

            Rob, I gotta admit, it took me a long time to come around on Allen. All the physical traits in the world, but he played for Wyoming and his accuracy (or lack thereof) frankly scared me. He reminded me a ton of another supremely gifted athletically QB who just couldn’t put it together, Blake Bortles. What would you say separated one from the other? I feel it’s very rare to see a QB relearn how to throw and have it stick (looking at you Tebow)

            • Peter says:

              Not Rob.

              Talent + great coaching. Brought out Allen. What would he have been in Miami, Houston, Cincinnati or many other franchises that are perennial messes or only recently might have scored up their coaches?

            • Rob Staton says:

              Allen’s physical profile was akin to a T1000 specifically designed to play QB in the NFL. He had every physical tool you look for. Bortles was basically two beers away from Big Ben.

              • Mel says:

                Of course the combine stat line doesn’t tell the story of a QB, nor but Bortles actually weighed in 5lbs lighter than Allen while being half an inch taller. Additionally, Next Gen stats put Bortles at an 86 to Allen’s 90. Easy to discount Bortles after seeing him in the pros but their body structure doesn’t seem that different. Appreciate the response! Love the work you put out there Rob

                • Rob Staton says:

                  They are/were totally different athletes

                  Allen’s size, frame, arm strength and athleticism was basically the ideal. Bortles wasn’t anywhere close to that

                  • Tallyhawk says:

                    Bortles had the physical tools he just couldn’t do it consistently. He wilted under pressure which is what separates the good/great qbs from those with as good/better physical traits imo.

                    Fun Bortles/Seahawks fact: today marks the 5 year’s anniversary of the Jags putting an ass whooping on the Hawks and possibly the best game Bortles played in his career. The Hawks made it close in a late rally but they got their shit handed to them that day. It’s a shame Shad Khan let Tom Coughlin ruin that team.

  2. swedenhawk says:

    we should also remember that last summer Jim Nagy highlighted Richardson and Levis as the two QBs who separated themselves during Manning camp. Levis may be the next Josh Allen, but, incredibly, Richardson has the potential to be even better. I’d be happy drafting either at #3.

  3. Swisshawk says:

    It’s just crazy to think about what the Russell trade could net us if the draft would start today…

    #2: QB (Levis or Richardson)
    #9: LT Cross (2022)
    #35: SS Skinner
    #40: DE Mafe (2022)
    DT Harris
    TE Fant
    QB Lock

    Just an outragous return…

    • Swisshawk says:

      *assuming Broncos lose against KC this weekend

      • Ben - Fort Worth says:

        I need them to lose against the Rams! I’d be happy with either Levis or Richardson. I’d hate to go DL.

    • Trevor says:

      It is not an exaggeration to say it is the most lopsided trade in NFL history when you take into account the $250 million contract as well.

      • Peter says:

        1. Let’s see how Deshaun Watson and the browns carry on….at least the woebegone Broncos *only* have this year to continue to not bolster their team in the draft.

        2. Super stoked to see who Seattle drafts. The weird thing, for me, is if Seattle doesn’t get better than a one and done playoff team by the time the team gets sold or these two rookie classes with tons of talent start pricing themselves out of all of them staying in Seattle the only person that wins is the person who didn’t have to put their money in escrow for Wilson.

        Broncos still losers of the trade if Wilson is done and dusted.

      • Scot04 says:

        Jamal Adams trade has to be right up the as well in my opinion. Atleast top 5.

        • Hawkcrazy says:

          Lots of worse trades than the Jamal Adams trade. The Jamal Adams trade became much worse given the Hawks did not use him well and injuries post trade… in addition the trade itself did not mean that the hawks could not have cut their losses and not given him an exhoribtant new contract (clearly not as devastating as Wilson’s may be to Devner). Generally I hated the Adams trade right away but clearly the team thought that the giving up of their native pick the following year would not result in a top ten pick… lots of trades will look really bad based on what happens later… ie injuries, bad new contracts etc…. part of the key is to cut losses after a bad trade

    • Cover 12 says:

      Nicely put Swisshawk…
      PLUS – there is a Significant savings by moving on from RW’s bloated contract…much eaten up by all these players in return, but it is fair to say that Uchenna’s production on the D line is made possible by the drop in salary obligation elsewhere.

      AND – DangeRuss’s future with the team would Very likely not have been beyond the 2024 season.

      Whereas, Levis/Richardson, Cross, Skinner (or?) & Mafe are all on cheap contracts for at least to after the 2025 season (Mafe & Cross) and after the 2026 season (Levis/Richardson, Skinner/or? and possibly Cross – w/ the 5th-year option), then that same 5th-year option is there to lock in Levis/Richardson, if we want, until the end of the 2027 season.

  4. Trevor says:

    Big win for the Rams last night when it comes to the Hawks draft postion. A top 5 pick seems more and more likely by the day.

  5. Rokas says:

    Love articles when we look back into the past, and what was the thinking and narrative back in the day. It teaches a great deal about the future, and also serves a lesson in humility.

    • Fudwamper says:

      I think that is what Rob does best. He finds trends with the hawks. He has his articles of “how did we miss this?” Or “why did we not see this?”

      Those self evaluations are not fodder. He actually applies them to his writing and thoughts. I think that is why he can very efficiently weed out the hype big college names.

  6. Denver Hawker says:

    I think what you’ve laid out also simply suggests that not much time is really invested during the season by media or even scouting departments.

    Pauline reported this week that several NFL scouts see him as a 2-yr project and will fall out of R1, Pauline himself settled on an R3 grade. I respect Tony, but also not sure how closely he’s studied Richardson to arrive at that conclusion.

    Also, grades are one thing, but positional value and team priorities are another. Bijan Robinson might be the best player in the draft and could go outside Top 10, a QB seen as a project could just as easily go Top-10 to the right team.

    Suspect more teams will warm to Richardson the same way you have when they invest more time studying this offseason.

    • Rokas says:

      For me the most mind boggling thing, is that the same pundits were projecting Malik WIllis as a top 5 overall pick on the draft day, but now they don’t have a place for Richardson in the first round.

      • Denver Hawker says:

        Good point. Tony released a mock a day before the draft that had Willis in R1- I’ve always assume these week-of-draft mocks contain so much insider knowledge, and they still got that one wrong.

      • MountainHawker says:

        This x1000. Watching Malik film last year…I couldn’t figure out what the media pundits were seeing to justify the hype. I felt validated during the draft. Richardson has WAY more going on than Malik did. Against better competition too.

        • Peter says:

          Nailed it.

          In the draft conversation my biggest rebuke against Willis a former sec prospect was pretty simple: he wasn’t even crushing a sub, sub tier conference.

    • UkAlex6674 says:

      But Pauline also said that he would understand teams reaching cor him in the first frame.

  7. Mr Magic says:

    Richardson will be gone by 12th pick max imho. Imho I also think we should trade out of the top pick if we can stay in the top 15 moving back and get another 1st next yr.

    • Rokas says:

      Too early to tell, they need to see how the board goes, not to mention we out pick can be basically from 2nd to 8th.

    • Peter says:

      What’s the benefit of a top pick next year vs. Top picks this year?

      Why not pick great talent now and have everyone cheap and hungry for a championship instead of spreading it out?

      • Spectator says:

        The question to Mr. Magic shouldnt be what is the benefit of a top pick next year vs this year. The question is, what is the benefit of a top pick this year AND unknown top pick next year vs. a guaranteed top 4 pick this year. If we are only gaining one 1st tho, it better be only dropping from 2/3 to like the 6-8 range. Only way we should ever drop into the 11-15 range is if we are getting 3 firsts for our 2nd/3rd overall.

        • Peter says:

          Great point.

          Not many saw the broncos giving us a top three maybe top two pick this year.

          What if we trade out and next years pick backfires and it’s to a team that gets to the playoffs.

  8. Jabroni-DC says:

    Like all media these days there is little to no accountability. Say something, anything, valid or not and then move on. There should be a thorough review immediately after each draft & at +1, +2, +3 years. The guys who were the most accurate year in & out move up to the top of the table and the busters get relegated.

  9. bmseattle says:

    You’d think that the draft pundits would learn and adjust…like they eventually did with smaller QBs because of Wilson’s success.

    Unfortunately, it seems like it’s all too common that the folks in the media who are making the most money, are the ones who put in the least work.

  10. 509 Chris says:

    This article could be titled, “The reason I read Seahawks Draft Blog and nothing else for draft coverage.” Between the national draft media and the local Seattle hacks with their homer attitude and softball questions, this site is and has always been a breath of fresh air.

  11. Matt says:

    The top pick needs to be a potentially franchise altering prospect. Sounds open ended, right? Not really. IMO – that’s narrowed down to a QB, LT, or Pass Rusher (DT, DE, RLB). Every other position on the field doesn’t provide the impact these positions do and therefore should not be under consideration.

    Obviously, we can cross LT off the list. So keep it simple; if the game wrecking pass rusher is not there – you have to invest in QB. It’s too much of a gift not too. Especially when time is on your side with said player.

  12. Robbie says:

    Anyone see this….gotta be honest. It fired me up!

    https://www.reddit.com/r/Seahawks/comments/zgg0ne/30_for_30_geno_smith/

  13. Calum says:

    I fully agree Anthony Richardson looks poised for a rise on draft boards either before draft day or during. I also remember Paxton Lynch being mentioned in a similar way, but he slipped to the late first. Is there a reason in hind sight we can look back and see why that was the case?

    • BK26 says:

      I didn’t watch much film on Lynch, but if I am remembering right, he wasn’t making the plays that Richardson was nor did he have the upside. Richardson can kind of take over games and go off and I never saw that from Lynch.

      Neither played very much before their draft but Lynch came off as more of a normal pocket passer that sits for a year or two before playing.

      Lynch seemed like that smaller school qb that teams take a chance on. I see sooooooo much more from Richardson.

      • Calum says:

        Yeah, Lynch didn’t quite have Richardson’s athletic profile. But If I remember correctly, Rob had compared him to a poor Mans Cam Newton and thought he would be the first overall pick. He sighted Lynch carrying Memphis and being the whole team, which feels very similar to Richardson (and Levis for that matter). Also just to clarify, I’m not disagreeing with Rob here, I think Richardson looks amazing. Just wondering out loud if we could be making a similar mistake or if the Lynch comparison is off basis.

        • BK26 says:

          Poor man’s Cam Newton, I could see that being his comp. Athletic, bigger, with an arm.

          This is with hindsight now and me not being Rob, but I don’t see them remotely similar. Lynch never had the upside and I think was supposed to be more solid than phenomenal (and was also thrown into the fire WAAAAAY too early and was ruined in my opinion). Rob can weigh in with a good opinion. I might be wrong.

          I feel like projections have changed since Lynch too. No example to back it up, just a gut feeling.

          My wife was actually on the phone with her sister when the Lynch pick came up. Her husband (a diehard Broncos fan) grabbed the phone and asked me about Lynch when the trade and pick happened.

          • Calum says:

            I remember that moment too, since we had the pick that the broncos used to take him. I also remember Dallas being upset they couldn’t move up to get him as well.

            My hope is that John Schneider knows what he’s doing with quarterbacks and if they value Richardson that highly, then they’ll take him and if not, then perhaps it speaks for itself. We’ve heard how they rated Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes very highly in their respective drafts. But I wonder what other qb’s have they liked that we haven’t heard about (most likely due to those quarterbacks not being as successful)?

            • BK26 says:

              That’s my hope too, that John knows what to look for. Especially since we’ve only heard of him really looking hard at those two, and that he probably would have drafted Allen if Russ would have been dealt to the Browns.

              I can’t think of HIM going to any other pro days. But when you have your franchise guy, it takes something special to get you to look in that case.

              • Tallyhawk says:

                I don’t doubt for a second Schneider will pull the trigger on a QB if he feels one is the guy. If I recall he went to see RW in person and was prepared to take in the 2nd round. That plus his known interest in Allen and Mahomes makes me believe if he has a guy he’ll pull the trigger.

  14. Trevor says:

    My dream plan for an elite Hawks defense in 2023.

    #1 Roster Cuts / Cap- Release Diggs and Adams to with post June designation to save $25 million and Jefferson for another $4 million so $29 million total.

    #2 Resign Mike Jackson at CB and Ryan Neal at S. Both play with and edge and have earned new deals.

    #3 Free Agency- Use a significant portion of the new $29 million in cap space to target 2 defensive players.
    – Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Jr (S / Eagles) Plays with and edge and turnover machine. Ideal replacement for Diggs.
    -Termaine Edmunds (LB / Buffalo) Won’t be cheap but ideal LB to team up with Brooks for the new KJ and Bobby type duo.

    #4 Draft Picks
    -Jalen Carter (DT / Georgia ) if we pick in the top 3 Pete can finally get his interior disruptor.
    -Siaka Ika (NT/Baylor) Hawks need a young athletic NT to clog up the middle
    -JL Skinner (S /Boise St) Physical tone setting Safety.

    2023 Defense

    DT – Carter, Ika, Woods, Mone, Harris
    Edge – Nwosu, Mafe, Taylor, Robinson or Draft pick
    CB – Woolen, Smith, Bryant, Jackson
    S – Gardner Johnson, Skinner, Neal
    LB – Brooks, Edmunds, Draft Pick , Draft Pick

    That would be a tough, fast young defense IMO.

    • Donovan says:

      Would love Tremaine Edmunds

    • AlaskaHawk says:

      So no Poona Ford or Barton? I think Poona contributes as much as any of the linemen. I would like to see the line get bigger and stronger with another nose tackle.

      Overall I like your plan – it’s well thought out. Still need a few players to help the offensive line and running back (geez will someone stay healthy?).

  15. Jabroni-DC says:

    Croatia!!!
    Wow, what a finish!

  16. cha says:

    In Jeremiah’s April 2017 mock draft, he eventually did include Mahomes in round one — at #27 overall. Deshaun Watson wasn’t included in the first frame. They ended up being the #10 and #12 picks respectively.

    I also recall that the projection went the other way that year – Watson had been starting for a year and a half by the time he entered his junior year in 2016, and scouts were nitpicking him to death. His completion % dropped from 67.8 to 67.0 that year. He’s not accurate.

    All he did was lead the team to a national championship against Alabama, throwing a TD with :01 left on the clock to win it all.

  17. Thomas says:

    Yes, that does seem strange. Is there a scorecard like huddle report for longterm talent grades? You had Lucas as a possible round one pick for example. There are redrafts I guess, but it would be interesting to see if there is some kind of long term scorecard on player ability projections.

  18. Ukhawk says:

    Rob, Based predominantly on your wonderful analysis, I’d be happy with any one of Carter, Richardson, Levis or Anderson with our first pick. And if teams are stupid enough, I’d take any of those with our second pick too alongside Bijan. Well done getting us so far ahead of the pack!!

  19. MoBo says:

    https://overthecap.com/the-potential-pay-raises-from-2022-pro-bowl-honors
    Brooks 5th year option would jump to 14.8m instead of 11.3m (both would be overpayed).
    Woolen could see a payraise of 2-5m. Would this raise count for the next season or like Brooks 5th year option for 2024?

    • cha says:

      Yeah the PPE kicks in for Woolen in his fourth year, so 2025.

      Brooks does get a potential raise but as you said, it’s really hard to think the Seahawks will exercise his 5th year option. They have until early May to decide.

      • Elmer says:

        Very big day at the WC quarterfinals today. Brazil falls, Argentina almost. England v. France match looking very important.

  20. Julian L says:

    Whilst cranning my neck I can barely see the far off ceiling that is the potential for Anthony Richardson, I think it’s clear that players with his level of inexperience, just one full CF season and degree of inaccuracy 52.8% completion percentage, don’t get drafted numbers 1 or 2 in the QB position.

    I’m a massive fan of AR and would be delighted if the Seahawks drafted him at any point, but part of this delight is knowing that (assuming Geno Smith re-signs), he’ll have time to develop behind a starting QB in the NFL. Teams drafting a QB to start, will want to have evidence through stats as well as potential. They need good stats on their team from the start. Houston have benched Davis Mills once already, they want to move on, they’re looking for a new starter. I’ll caveat this by saying this could change if they get a QB on a one or two year deal to start, in free agency, but then I’d think they’d go for Jalen Carter. My amateur guess would be Levis and Young to be the first two QBs drafted in 2023.

    IMHO, i think we’ll see Richardson go in the Allen, Mahomes range, 7 to 10, because players like that just do. He’ll go to the first team choosing the best starting QB for 2024, possibly the Lions, maybe the Raiders, it’s not impossible it might be the Seahawks?

    • Rob Staton says:

      I think it’s clear that players with his level of inexperience, just one full CF season and degree of inaccuracy 52.8% completion percentage, don’t get drafted numbers 1 or 2 in the QB position.

      OK — list me the players with Anthony Richardson’s level of upside who had a similar college experience.

      Then we can determine whether or not there’s enough of a sample size to determine where players like Richardson can be expected to go.

      • Julian L says:

        It’s exactly my point that someone getting drafted in the top 2 of their position with just one full season of experience would be unprecedented, I mentioned in my opening sentence that Richardson has incredible upside, but so far, concerning accuracy. My prediction is a team will take this upside early, but some teams won’t want to wait for the playing maturity fruit to bare, and I’m talking of teams taking a QB in the top 5. It could well be flawed logic on their part, but this flawed logic got Mahomes picked at 10 behind Mitch Trubisky and Josh Allen at 7 behind Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold?

        • Rob Staton says:

          If there aren’t players with Richardson’s level of upside and college experience to compare to — that’s not ‘unprecedented’. It’s simply that a player like him hasn’t existed before.

  21. Mexican Hawk says:

    Hello Rob, thanks again for everything. As I mention every now and then, what you do and more impressively the competence with which you do it is incredible. Mindblowing IMO. What astounds me the most is how ahead of the game you are in comparison with the national pundits. No disrespect to anyone, but there are so many instances where you start mentioning names (way ahead of most everyone) that end up being top-tier draft prospects. Will Levis just to name one.

    Wanted to see what you thought about Anthony’s completion percentage, I know that Josh was in a similar situation. Though fixing that is rare. Usually doesn’t happen. On occasions like Allen’s it does. I wonder how PCJS sees this.

    I say this because of Pete’s recent comments. He just mentioned that an emphasis or goal of his always been having a 70% passer. We’ll see how that affects their thought process. There’s no doubting he’s the perfect developmental project. Like Carson Palmer, he’s the ideal size Pete looks for (according to his comments of a while ago), plus speed to burn unlinke Carson. He would also be coming to the perfect situation for his sake. Being able to sit at least a year like Mahomes, though most likely as mentioned maybe even two is ideal. This if Geno signs, as you mention you lose 2 years of a cheap contract, but you can’t all be gravy.

    It may end up costing us a Dlineman early in the draft, but if JS feels as for Anthony (or other) as strongly as he felt for Mahomes/Allen (rumored) then IMO you have to pull the trigger.

    • Rob Staton says:

      Undoubtedly Richardson has to improve his accuracy but as I’ve noted in a few pieces — I think this is just an experience thing. There’s nothing that problematic about his technique. Nothing majorly horrible that needs fixing. When he misses he’s a fraction off or a bit late. He also suffered a whole bunch of drops at Florida and didn’t have an arsenal of weapons to speak of.

      Neither would I necessarily expect him to ever be a surgeon at the next level. But to me that doesn’t really matter with the positives he brings to the table. He’s never going to be Brady or Manning. But he might be Allen.

  22. All I see is 12s says:

    Thank you Rob. The more I think about it the more I think he is a top 10 pick as well. There are at least eight teams (NO, IND, CAR, DET, NYG, WAS, ATL, HOU) not to mention several others who will be in the mix (LAR, SEA, TEN, TB). There are only for real first round quarterbacks being talked about right now. I have to imagine teams are going to be desperate to get their guy.

    I think a guy I like Richardson Will show enough that he is worth the risk and the time to develop and one of these teams will try to leapfrog their competitors to get to him.
    That said, assuming the Seahawks bring back Gino Smith, I wonder if trading back with their top pic might be a real option.
    Consistently, when I do the PFN mock draft( yes, I know it’s unrealistic some of the traits they offer) I consistently have teams willing to trade 3 to 4 first round picks to move up and grab a quarterback. I said normally I take PFN with a grain of salt, but I don’t think that is outrageous in this year‘s draft that a team would be willing to give up some thing similar to what San Francisco gave up to move up and get their guy.
    Of course I would love to have Carter or Anderson, but to stack up first round picks this season and the 24 draft would really go along way towards improving Seattle’s overall roster and kicking open a Super Bowl window.

    • Peter says:

      I’ve pondered and puzzled this up a dozen times.

      Take the teams you assume need a qb. Plus draft positioning. Plus draft value.

      Which teams that need a qb are going to be so far away from one they need to trade multiple first to get up to Seattle? The colts?

      If qbs go one/two I could see a bidding war of sorts.

      If only one qb goes off the board before Seattle’s pick then you still get potentially three qbs sitting there. Then you have to hope or assume detroit wants “your,” qb and you must jump then to get to Seattle’s pick. Feels like there is a ton of moving parts to make that happen.

      Alternately and cynically, sort of hard sell to have listened to Schneider complain about not getting great talent then when you can get maybe Carter, levis, or richardson trade out of that for the 14th overall pick.

      Then say they trade with Indy and a better coached (?) Better qb led Indy in this example gets into the playoffs (not inconceivable in that division) now you’ve turned a top tier pick into a mid teens and then a low to mid twenties tge following year.

      You’ve missed on potentially a Jalen Carter or future qb this year and you’re right back to picking in the zone the team sort of always picks at. Geno’s older and now you’re out of the top qb sweepstakes maybe for the duration of that trade deal.

  23. KD says:

    I just saw the ESPN article about Mazi Smith’s arrest and weapon charge. From what i read, it does not seem like a big deal at all. It was registered, and he owned it legally. He just did not have the correct permit to have it in his car.

    From the article: According to the Detroit Free Press, Smith’s sentencing likely will fall under the state’s Holmes Youthful Trainee Act, which allows young adults to avoid having charges on their criminal record if they meet certain conditions.

    Not a big deal at all. Some teams will be very timid though and may push him down, even though they shouldn’t.

    • Peter says:

      Agree this feels very much like a non-story. Perhaps some teams might pause but seems like there is no surprise here and from what I gather he’s cooperated tge whole way.

  24. EC says:

    What do you think about taking Jalen Carter and Mazi Smith in the first round? Could be a very solid duo in the middle.

    • KD says:

      Pete has been very honest in the past about adressing a weakness or a goal.

      “We want to run the ball better.” Drafted James Carpenter and John Moffit
      “We want to get faster on the front 7” Drafted Bruce Irvin and Bobby Wagner

      If he emphasizes defense in his answers about the draft, that should give you a clue

  25. Steve Nelsen says:

    I very rarely zero in on one FA or one draft prospect as a “must have” but I’m getting close to that this year with Anthony Richardson. There is a lot of time before the draft and I’m looking forward to the Senior Bowl as always but I think this year’s draft is a rare opportunity for Seattle to draft a new franchise QB. Levis still interests me too or I’d already be all in on Richardson.

    One of the bonuses about Seattle’s amazing 2022 draft was how many players they got at premium positions; two outstanding OTs and an elite CB. A athletic edge and maybe a slot CB too. The premier position is QB. If they hit on that in 2023, the franchise is set up for another successful run. In a worst case scenario, maybe they have to trade up but if they end up with the #2 or #3 overall pick, then they can get their QB and still have another 1st-rounder and two 2nd-rounders in a draft deep in DL and WRs.

  26. TomLPDX says:

    I saw the Ravens cut RB Mike Davis today. He is 28 yo, think we’ll bring him back to the PS?

  27. Palatypus says:

    GO NAVY!

    BEAT ARMY!

  28. Blitzy the Clown says:

    Man the FCS post season has been lit so far!

    I’ve got Griz in me so it pains me to acknowledge that the MSU Bobcats tore through William & Mary, so that game was pretty lopsided

    But UIW @ SacSt was a total shootout. There are going to be some interesting smaller school prospects to ponder in the mid/late rounds

  29. Palatypus says:

    Hmmm…

    The Senior Bowl website has Army invite Andre Carter II listed as a linebacker at 6’7″ and 260lbs.

    He has set the edge really nicely in this game so far.

  30. cha says:

    Condolences Rob.

    Three Lions put up a great fight but just could not execute at the most key moments.

    The World Cup this year is amazing. I had no dog in the fight and I was on the edge of my seat the whole match.

    • Jabroni-DC says:

      Got to watch most of all 4 quarter final matches. Been thrilling. As soon as Brazil gets knocked out it just becomes pure fun. Happy for the remaining teams.
      Sorry to Rob. England was certainly in it.

  31. Rob4q says:

    Mazi Smith is what the Seahawks need on their DL. Really hope they draft him…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YwcDhTgQ-c

  32. Lex says:

    Augh!

    So sorry Rob, absolutely heartbreaking, just drives me nut to have the better side and come away with the loss.

    • Elmer says:

      Yes. To outplay the opponent and not secure the victory is disappointing, to say the least. The England side have nothing to be ashamed of though IMO.

      This has been a WC with unexpected events. To watch the emotions of the Brazil fans as the Croatia comeback unfolded, for instance. The performance of the Croatia goalkeeper was very impressive to the inexpert eye.

  33. Forrest says:

    Who is RB Godwin Igwebuike who was elevated from the practice squad?

    A 28 year old “strong safety” who was projected to go in Round 3/4 back when he drew a comp to former Seahawk Delano Hill! Detroit actually converted him to a RB in the summer of 2021 after he played two ways in high school.

    https://www.nfl.com/prospects/godwin-igwebuike/32004947-5742-2041-f619-979fcd19352e

    https://sidelionreport.com/2021/07/28/detroit-lions-running-back-godwin-igwebuike/amp/

  34. Stuart says:

    Rob, stick to what you have seen with your own eyes. The main stream media and so called draft guru’s will eventually go with what you have been seeing and saying all along.

    When people come on SDB and knock anything you have said about the 2023 draft class, it just shows how out of touch they really are.

    You are the authority and all your loyal SDB family knows this.

    Keep up your incredible work and thank you!!!

  35. Walter Rucker says:

    Any Blake Corum fans here? I really like him. Hard worker, very strong…

  36. Palatypus says:

    USA loses.

    England loses.

    Navy loses.

    Bullocks!!!

    • Roy Batty says:

      If you need to turn that frown upside down, go watch the YT condensed FCS playoff game of Incarnate Word vs. Sacramento State.

      It is the most ridiculously fun, score-every-possession game you may EVER see.

  37. BruceN says:

    Rob, just finished watching the match. France didn’t play very well and I thought England deserved to win the match. I feel terrible for Kane. He’s not only a great footballer, he’s also a gentleman and a great guy. Congratulation on tying Rooney’s record.

  38. Brady says:

    What are y’all’s thoughts on the Hawks trading down from the 2nd pick to draft Richardson a couple, or a few picks later. Could be risky… especially with the potential for a team to trade up to snag him. With the current draft positions, what seems feasible as to where he might go? Which teams do y’all think will prioritize selecting QBs? Thanks!

    • BK26 says:

      If they want him, then take him. Don’t get cute and try to out think it. We have two gifted picks so that alone is almost like trading down. I don’t want them taking that kind of risk and trying to milk all that they can.

      • Peter says:

        Exactly. Free picks = big swings.

        If it worked they’d be hailed as genius’.

        If it didn’t work you could end up with some draft day Collier faces and some reports about a year later about how the plans didn’t materialize.

        Unless they truly don’t care for Levis/richardson, or other.

        • swedenhawk says:

          I just tested this scenario out on the PFN simulator. Traded 3 to Houston for 13, 32, 64, and their two firsts in 2024. I then swapped 13 and 64 for Atlanta’s pick at 11. One can dream…
          11.
          Anthony Richardson
          QB Florida

          20.
          JL Skinner
          S Boise State

          32.
          Bijan Robinson
          RB Texas

          34.
          Calijah Kancey
          DT Pittsburgh

          53.
          Jonathan Mingo
          WR Ole Miss

          2024 CLE 1st
          2024 HOU 1st

          • Peter says:

            While cool. And a bit addicting. The draft simulator kills me as well.

            Houston is drafting #1 in the real world. And in draft world they would want to burn a massive amount of draft capital for the third overall player as well?

            Again if they did that you’d have to say yes…..but…..

  39. Big Mike says:

    Not a word from Rob for quite some time now. Assume you’re in mourning? I get it, we all can sympathize.

  40. Palatypus says:

    I think.it needs to be said. That was not a Pete “Maverick” Mitchell effort by Navy yesterday. That was pantywaste Daniels Mcafee. I know deep down you don’t like to talk about it at parties.

    BUT YOU CAN’T HANDLE THE TRUTH !!!

  41. Big Mike says:

    Starting to be a bit concerned about Rob and cha (no watch points). Hope everyone’s OK

    • Mick says:

      I take it Rob’s got a lot of work after England’s game, writing an article about who needs to replace Southgate, and cha can’t publish the article without Rob. But yes, I also hope it’s nothing more serious that this.

  42. cha says:

    I’m at the game.

    Here is the text for the watch points

    • cha says:

      Watch Points Week Fourteen vs Carolina

      The Seahawks need to look at this game as an end of one segment and the beginning of another. Why?
      This game finishes a tough quarter for the team. After badly disappointing losses in Germany against Tampa and in Seattle hosting the Raiders, they went to Los Angeles and handled the Rams to give themselves a chance to split the quarter at 2-2 with a win this week against the Panthers.

      It also starts the stretch run in which the Seahawks have four of their last five games at home.
      In the old days, that was a big advantage. The Seahawks were nearly unbeatable at home. In recent years they have faltered. They are 17-13 at home since 2019 and were a Pete Carrol-era worst 3-5 last year.
      It is time to reclaim that identity and it starts on Sunday. Can they do it?
      That depends on if they can defeat the same opponent that they have been playing for the last three weeks. What do I mean by that?

      The Panthers are oddly similar to Tampa, Las Vegas and the Rams. Consider:
      • They are playing better than their record indicates and should not be taken lightly
      • They have an underrated running game the Seahawks will have to contend with
      • Their quarterback position is not having the best season, but he can be effective if not bothered by the pass rush
      • They have a defense you can move the ball and score on but has some dangerous players that can flip the game if you are not careful

      One last factor has nothing to do with who they are playing: With all due respect to their opponents so far this quarter, the Seahawks are just as responsible for their losses as the other teams are for their wins. They have struggled with their own standards for good play, particularly on their defensive line.
      In the last three games, the Seahawks have had only five sacks, fourteen quarterback pressures and have given up 615 rushing yards. That performance has led to them conceding an average of 28 per game.
      Those numbers are unacceptable. And in view of what the defense accomplished earlier in the season, are greatly due to their own poor game planning, coaching and play on the field.
      They can and must do better. It must start Sunday against Carolina if they are to build up some momentum as they push to make the playoffs.

      As they have a similar opponent, the Watch Points will not be too unfamiliar to regular readers.
      We will start with looking at where most games are won or lost – in the trenches.
      The Panthers have won two of their last three, sandwiching wins against Atlanta and Denver around a loss to the Ravens.

      What has been the difference? Carolina’s lines on both sides.

      • cha says:

        The Seahawks Must Get Better Play from the Defensive Line

        In their two wins, the Carolina offensive line has conceded only two sacks and a grand total of five pressures. The team also gained 417 yards on the ground.

        Their loss to Baltimore? Four sacks, seven pressures and only 36 rushing yards. Baker Mayfield had to carry the offense and threw two interceptions in the loss. (side note: 36-year-old Calais Campbell recorded a sack by absolutely manhandling Austin Corbett and then accelerating to Mayfield. It was amazing.)

        The Panthers have had a rising offensive line this season. They are in the top-5 ranked units by PFF in pass protection, and every lineman has a PFF grade above 62.
        Last week against a pretty good Broncos defensive front they kept Sam Darnold clean, not allowing a single sack and only allowing three pressures on 19 dropbacks. The running backs carried the offense with 185 yards.

        Now you see why I say this pattern is familiar. The Seahawks have been unable to either stop the run or consistently bring pressure on the quarterback in recent weeks. The Panthers controlled the line of scrimmage on offense and it showed.

        Do not let the Panthers’ coaching change or the revolving door at quarterback lull you into a false sense of confidence that this team is in shambles. They are doing the best thing a team in their state can do: running the ball a lot, protecting the quarterback and avoiding mistakes. The defensive line has a tall task on Sunday.

        D’Onta Foreman has been performing nicely for the Panthers since they traded Christian McCaffrey. He is averaging 18 carries for 83 yards for a nice 4.59 yards per carry and .80 touchdowns in the span. To give you a gauge, that is roughly what Dalvin Cook is averaging this year over 12 games.
        Foreman has demonstrated a great vision in finding holes to run through. He reminds me of Josh Jacobs in a way. Even when he is contained, he still falls forward for three or four yards. And when he finds an open lane, look out. He is going to pick up some yards.
        The challenge is, while he can run between the tackles effectively, his best runs this year have been exploiting the edges, an area where the Seahawks have been very poor. Last week against the Rams, Sean McVay attacked Bruce Irvin on the right side mercilessly. Irvin was frequently unable to establish the edge as he was either out of position or outmuscled by a blocker.
        The Panther offense is not as creative as the Rams’ is – not many can say they are – but they have a more direct approach to running. ‘This is what we’re going to do, and we’re going to move you out of our way.’ The defensive line needs better scheming and better play Sunday. Success in the running game plays right into the Panthers’ success: It eats the clock up, keeps Sam Darnold from having to carry more than he is capable of, the Panther pass rushers rested and the Seahawks’ explosive offensive players off the field.

        It is critical that the Seahawks’ front seven play better Sunday. Putting pressure on Sam Darnold to carry the offense will be job number one.

        The Seahawks’ offensive line faces a similar task.

        • cha says:

          The Offensive Linemen Need to Control the Line of Scrimmage

          In those two Panther wins, their defense recorded eight sacks and 29 pressures. Their loss? They did sack Lamar Jackson three times but only had four pressures. Jackson was 24 for 33 but his receivers dropped five balls. The point being, the passing game was not largely affected by the pass rush, as Jackson had enough time to go 29 for 33 in passing.

          Brian Burns stands as a great young pass rusher with ten sacks so far this season. Both offensive tackles will have to be sharp in order to keep him from wrecking the Seahawks’ plans on offense.
          Derrick Brown is coming into his own as a run-stopping force in the middle. He is sporting a very robust 85.5 PFF grade, and is sixth in the NFL in tackles for interior linemen with 50. Austin Blythe and the guards will have their hands full trying to keep him in check.
          And yet, there is a yin-and-yang quality to this defense. Burns is a great pass-rusher and that is very impactful. But he has yet to round out his game, as he has not been able to attain at least a 70 PFF score on a season. He is still learning when to explode up the field and when to read the play and stay home and help in the running game.

          And Brown? He has provided disruption for other players but has really yet to reach the pass rush plateau he projected as the #7 overall pick in 2020. He has only one sack and ten pressures this year.
          Further: Those two weeks where they won games and were rushing the passer well? They gave up 259 rushing yards on 44 attempts for an ugly 5.88 yards per carry average.
          On a season level, they are in the bottom ten for sacks and pressures, and have conceded 100 yards rushing in every game except two.

          This defense is a work in progress, and there is a formula to having offensive success against them.
          It does start with the boys up front. You can look at stats for a year stretch and a three-game stretch and project all you like. But in the moment, those things melt away when you are lining up across these two talented players. The whole line will need to execute to keep them from severely altering your offensive game plan.

          But it is also up to the Shane Waldron and the staff to unlock that formula.

          • cha says:

            Use the Offense to Control the Game

            This is not a new topic. The defense has been wanting this year, while the offense most often has been the one to propel the team forward.
            Absent a much better performance from the defense on Sunday, it will fall on the offense once again to deliver a win for the team.

            They have done incredibly well this year, and yet at times because of the defense, we find ourselves needing just a tad bit more. A turnover here, a penalty there, or a lack of a consistent run game that we are used to can be the difference in a tough game like this. Their execution will need to be on point.

            Geno Smith has reached the point where surprise at his excellent performance on the field has morphed into consistent high expectations. Fans already anticipate another 70% completion game where Smith spreads the ball all around the field. Last week he took another step forward, answering the ‘but he has not led a game-winning fourth quarter drive yet’ concern decisively.
            This week? As all players know, past successes need to be relegated to the background of their mind and proper focus needs to be placed on the task at hand.
            He will need to execute Waldron’s gameplan at a high level once again. This week, it may mean picking up the slack for a run game that cannot get untracked, or making a quicker decision than he would like because a pass rusher is in his face.

            It may mean targeting C.J. Henderson, who is allowing a 76.8% completion rate and a 110 QB rating, as opposed to rising star Jaycee Horn (51.2% completion and 48 QB rating). Or it may mean trusting his wide receivers when Horn is covering them and making accurate throws that give them a shot.

            There will be a balance that is needed, one quality that Geno and the offense have excelled at so far. Using the tight ends, the run game and taking shots to the wide receivers for big plays will all be needed to be sprinkled into the game liberally. A ‘let’s play conservative and see how the game unfolds’ approach the Seahawks have at times deployed will not be the easiest path to success.

            The Seahawks need to take the field and clearly demonstrate why they are stretching forward to the playoffs while the Panthers are once again looking forward to the draft next year. A 14-0 lead early in the game would be just what the doctor ordered. It would take the Panther offense out of their comfort zone and help the defense pin their ears back and get aggressive with some sacks or forcing some turnovers.

            There is potential that this game could propel them into their Thursday night matchup against San Francisco with gusto. They will need all the momentum they can muster if they are to contend for the NFC West division title. A win on Sunday could be the start of something big.

      • Mick says:

        Thank you cha. Bad news, Shelby Harris is down with flu and will miss the game today.

    • Big Mike says:

      Thanks so much cha. Hope the Hawks deliver an in person win for you.

    • Ukhawk says:

      Nice, enjoy, Go Hawks!!

    • 12th chuck says:

      thanks man, hope you enjoy the game thoroughly

  43. cha says:

    Jersey watch: I’ve been onsite for two hours and not seen one RW jersey in the crowd.

    Two #3 Rick Mirer throwbacks spotted.

    Stunning

  44. cha says:

    Very little wind

    Meters hit from 57 and 60 at both ends in warmups.

  45. Sea Mode says:

    So, do we foresee another 9 to 6 sloppy slogfest? Seems like those days vs. the Panthers are well behind us, especially with how porous our defense has been, but I guess this is somehow still what comes to mind for me whenever we play them.

  46. Kyle R says:

    Thanks for all the keys to the game and updates Cha! I got an early Christmas present and I’m rocking my new home Walker 9 jersey.

  47. Chris says:

    Giving up 3rd and long is our defensive identity

  48. Sea Mode says:

    Dang, they gave us the “filler” commentators…

  49. Sea Mode says:

    Please tell me we are not going to make Darnold look like Andrew Luck today…

  50. Kyle R says:

    Damn! Don’t even throw it to the guy that is next to the guy Woolen is covering!

  51. Sea Mode says:

    Had room to pick that off.

  52. KD says:

    Oh FFS Geno

  53. Kyle R says:

    Damn Gino you know you can’t rely on your defense to bail you out!

  54. Sea Mode says:

    What was that Cha about going up 14-0 early… 😒

  55. Sea Mode says:

    Hmmm…

    Brady Henderson
    @BradyHenderson
    ·41m

    Schneider said of the Panthers, “This is probably the best offensive line we’ve seen this season.”

  56. Blitzy the Clown says:

    Gross Ma Toast!

    Everybody drink!

  57. Hawks4life says:

    We look awful, Geno starting to see ghosts

  58. Kyle R says:

    This scheme is just trash. We don’t have a game wreckers upfront or the LBs to run it. Our personal are much better suited to a 4-3 or 4-2 with an extra safety.

  59. 12th chuck says:

    Pete Carroll should be embarrassed to his core for putting such a lousy defense together. This has been going on far too many years. Baffling

    • Kyle R says:

      Imagine being a defensive head coach and for the last 3 to 4 years the strength of your team is the offense and it’s not even a question.

      • 12th chuck says:

        better yet, how many consecutive years in a row, can you have an historically bad d at some point, and still keep your job

  60. Kyle R says:

    How Hell do you not take that ball away? That had to be the most easy and wreck less way I’ve seen a ball carrier stretch the ball out!

  61. 12th chuck says:

    I think we’ve seen the best we are going to see from Geno. First pick this draft should be a qb. Obviose the d is so far away from a top pick away

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