John Schneider & Pete Carroll had a front-row seat for Anthony Richardson’s pro-day
I’ve got my notes on Anthony Richardson’s pro-day coming up but first I wanted to reflect on speculation provided by two separate reporters.
Firstly, Vic Tafur of ‘the Athletic’ posted this in his report from the NFL owners meeting:
But the buzz at Monday night’s NFL party, with owners, general managers, coaches, agents and reporters hitting the open bar, was that all four quarterbacks will be long gone by the time the Raiders pick at No. 7.
That’s relevant assuming the Raiders aren’t blowing smoke and are really interested in the four quarterbacks — given that they just gave Garoppolo $33.75 million guaranteed and a 6-11 team should probably keep all its draft picks rather than try and trade up.
The buzz is that the Seahawks will jump up from No. 5 to No. 3 to grab either Richardson or Levis, as Stroud and Young are expected to go 1-2. The Cardinals can move down to No, 5 and still get the top defensive player, as the Colts are expected to also draft a QB at No. 4.
It’s perhaps telling that Michael-Shawn Dugar, the Seahawks reporter for ‘the Athletic’, also wrote an article titled, ‘Seahawks’ interest in top QBs is no smokescreen‘:
Seattle knows that picking this high in the draft again is unlikely. Since 2011, Seattle’s average native first-round slot has been in the 20s. The Seahawks rarely (if ever) have 20 prospects with first-round grades, which is why they’ve so often traded back in the first round or traded out of the round entirely. Schneider’s history of trading down in the first round has contributed to the belief that the Seahawks’ interest in the top quarterbacks is a ruse. But there’s a notable difference between picking No. 5 and pick No. 25, so Seattle’s previous draft strategies aren’t necessarily applicable this year.
Further evidence Seattle isn’t bluffing about possibly selecting a quarterback: Carroll has already relayed to Smith that it’s legitimately on the table.
Clearly, it seems, there was a theme at the league meeting — accurate or not — that Seattle is in the QB market in this draft.
Friend of the blog Tony Pauline added to this yesterday, reporting:
Speculation from league insiders during Florida’s pro day is the Seattle Seahawks could be the team that leapfrogs the Indianapolis Colts and trades up with the Arizona Cardinals to secure Richardson. Several reasons were given.
The cost to move up won’t be much for the Seahawks, who have another first-round pick — the 20th selection.
Additionally, the general manager and coach who draft Richardson have to be on safe footing. Even Russell Wilson couldn’t get Pete Carroll and John Schneider fired. Finally, Richardson is the type of freaky athlete that the Seahawks have drafted in the past and had success with — think Tariq Woolen and DK Metcalf.
What should we make of all this?
When I listened to Carroll speak candidly to Steve Wyche about drafting a quarterback (see below) it really convinced me that they were prepared to take one. This didn’t feel like a great ruse. It felt like a coach laying out a situation, almost preparing everyone for a possibility:
The Seahawks are digging in on the rookie QB evaluations. What’s this mean for Geno Smith? Some interesting stuff here from HC Pete Carroll from our conversation Sunday at the league meetings. pic.twitter.com/3FaNBhu7wA
— Steve Wyche (@wyche89) March 28, 2023
This doesn’t mean the Seahawks were definitely going to draft a quarterback. I just think it highlighted a situation we’ve discussed a lot. I think they’re comfortable taking Will Anderson or one of the top four quarterbacks at #5.
I must admit though, these latest reports made me think.
It’s possible the wheels are in motion behind the scenes. The Seahawks wouldn’t leak this info to a Tafur or Pauline directly but if they’re chatting to other teams, scoping out what Arizona is actually being offered at #3 to help them determine their next move, that could be brought up at a cocktail party at the owners meeting quite easily.
Or, maybe they’re trying to shift things into gear? Spook a team into trading up to #3, increasing the chances of Will Anderson lasting to #5?
I’m sure people will shape their view based on their own personal preferences.
I then come onto my own personal impression that I don’t think the Seahawks are disinterested in the QB’s and wonder, would they cook-up such an elaborate poker game to avoid taking one? Is Anderson really worth all this effort? If they don’t take a quarterback when they’re in the top-five with a well established ‘top-four’ — when will they? I’m pretty sure the plan isn’t solely to ride or die with Geno Smith.
I’m fascinated by the whole mystery of it all. I’m eager to know what the reality is.
I will say again that I think these quarterbacks are factory made for John Schneider. These are the types of player he goes for. The thought of him trading up to make sure he gets the guy he wants is not as fanciful as some think.
I just remain sceptical about the viability of trading with a division rival. Does Monti Ossenfort, the new Cardinals GM, really want his first big move in the job to be a trade so that a division rival can draft a potential franchise quarterback? That would be career suicide if the player turns out to be great.
Can he risk the Seahawks trading up to #3 and taking Anderson instead of a QB?
What’s the price to move up two spots? It feels like a difficult one to work out. If the Cardinals are moving back knowing they can still get the guy they want, then it doesn’t exactly help their bargaining position because that’s a feather in Seattle’s cap compared to say the Raiders at #7, Falcons at #8 or Titans at #11.
Equally, the Seahawks only need to move up to stop somebody else doing it. So if they end up having to outbid another team, that could get expensive.
I’m torn. The Seahawks clearly want to build their defense and trading up for a quarterback makes that harder. At the same time, this is a rare opportunity to get a potential star quarterback for the long term. John Schneider was supposedly prepared to be aggressive to trade prime Russell Wilson for a chance to draft Josh Allen, plus he was reportedly prepared to draft Patrick Mahomes to usurp Wilson. We know he’s willing to be bold at the position.
It could be a fascinating few days. What I think this does tell us, however, is that we’re on the right track here. Whether they want to move up or just want to sucker someone else to do it so Anderson falls — the four quarterbacks and Will Anderson are likely the players we should focus on. You’re not trading up for Jalen Carter or Tyree Wilson and you’re not hoping for either of those two to last to #5 by shifting Arizona out of the #3 spot.
My prediction is the Seahawks won’t trade up. I think it’d be silly, however, to ignore what’s being speculated — especially when it’s coming from two non-related sources.
Now onto my pro-day notes for Anthony Richardson…
I was listening to Jordan Palmer courtesy of ‘the 33rd team’ this week and he had some interesting things to say about Richardson. Palmer attended the Manning Passing Academy last year. He says people who witnessed that event were referring to Richardson’s physical performance as ‘legendary’ —- with onlookers amazed by how effortless he was launching the ball downfield.
Jim Nagy and Jake Heaps have offered similar sentiments, saying that at an event where Bryce Young was present, Richardson and Will Levis stood out the most due to their strong arms and athleticism.
At the Florida pro-day, you can see why everyone was so awestruck. You will never, ever see a player throw the ball with this level of velocity and power with so little energy exerted to deliver a pass. It’s unique. It’s barely believable. It speaks to the titanic-sized potential Richardson possesses.
Each of the pro-days have been different so far. C.J. Stroud’s was up-tempo and rapid. There was no messing around — he got into his throws quickly and sprayed accurate passes all over the field. Young’s was low-key and almost felt like he was saying, ‘let’s get this out of the way’. Levis showed off his physical qualities and the throwing session was brilliantly designed by the aforementioned Palmer.
Richardson was free and loose. There was nothing mechanical about his drops or footwork. At times it was like he was just playing catch in the backyard. He’d hop around on the spot, then flick his wrist and fire a laser to the target — often deep downfield. He was jogging and then lofting passes 60-70 yards like it was nothing. On several of his throws he was sporting a huge grin on his face. This was not a pressurised environment. If Stroud and Levis were business-like and Young intent on moving on in the process, Richardson was out there having a blast.
There’s nothing technically impressive about Richardson. The whole workout felt like he was saying, ‘bollocks to this — we all know I need to sit for a year or two and develop, so I’m just going to show off my arm’. And show off he did.
I’ve never seen anything like it. Josh Allen is the closest I can think of but his pro-day was a bit more classically designed. Richardson was freelancing today and showed this incomparable ability to generate a frozen-rope level spiral with maximum velocity without exerting himself. He throws with as much tenacity as I might throw a soft-toy to my six-year-old daughter. Yet he still generates a world class, jaw-dropping level of torque and distance.
This is natural, physical ability at its finest.
His release is slightly elongated which is a contrast to the others. It does make me wonder if he’s spent any time gaining technical coaching this off-season. We know Levis has been working with Palmer (along with DTR, Hendon Hooker and Max Duggan). Levis’ release point is high and tight. Richardson does drop his arm and come around, then up, to release. It’s not a massive issue but something worth noting.
You only have to look at Richardson to see he belongs on the front cover of a sports magazine. His frame is incredible. He’s just sensationally built and in proportion. This is what a superstar looks like. I generally think if a player has flaws but has the upside to reach an elite level, provided he has the right application and attitude, they are worth taking a chance on. By all accounts, Richardson has that attitude and application. In the right environment, he can be one of the faces of the league.
He jogged to his left on a couple of occasions, threw across his body and nailed the velocity and placement. I would’ve personally liked to see more structure to the workout at times. Levis was running extended bootlegs and play action, then throwing realistic NFL passes against imaginary situations. The pitch-and-catch nature of Richardson’s session was interesting to an extent but it would’ve been good to see some tougher challenges.
Even so, I enjoyed watching him flex with this display of power.
He threw a couple of lofted mid-range fades which were ‘wow’ deliveries. There was one shot across his body to the right hand side where I can barely believe how easily he threw it 60-yards downfield, with great height and placement, into the range for a receiver to run under. The downfield stuff was effortless.
He quickened the pace after a warm-up and rolled into some five-step drops. The throws came out with reasonable timing but I think he can deliver quicker than this. As on tape, there are some slightly higher throws than necessary on easy layups. Yet he can also launch to the sideline with ease on mid-range outs. On some of those reps he was delivering a ball most players simply cannot.
Richardson threw some 40-yard passes to the right sideline that just exploded out of his hand. He followed it up with some play-action work, mimicking looking off the safety down the middle then with no resetting of his feet, throwing to the left sideline with ideal punch and velocity.
He took some under-center snaps where he fell into a three-step drop. Richardson then showed off a hitch on a slant and go before floating a beautiful downfield shot towards the left sideline.
They had one of the coaches provide some mock pressure. Richardson span out of it, then as he was running to his left, threw across his body and landed a perfect pass 60-yards downfield hitting the receiver in stride. He made it look easy.
Richardson showed off his arm, launching a pass from the 12-yard line to the 18-yard line at the opposite end of the field. He gets great height on his downfield throws. Young’s were quite flat I thought at Alabama but Richardson gets the height necessary for a receiver to track with ease and run under the throw. This was evidenced by the fact he hit the roof on one pass, just as Levis did at his pro-day.
He had another deep shot with an exaggerated play-fake to the left, then he ran back to the right and launched it downfield like he was throwing a 10-yard slant. Loft, precision, velocity. It was a stunning throw, hitting the receiver deep downfield in stride. Masterful.
There are no physical limitations here. For any team wanting an explosive downfield passer, he can be it. He’ll be able to throw from difficult angles under pressure and he won’t need perfect technique to generate an accurate, powerful throw because he’s just so uniquely created physically. I’ve seen defenders hanging off him and he still hits the mark.
I don’t think there’ll be another Anthony Richardson and I haven’t seen anyone like this before. I feel confident saying there may never be a player with greater upside. That doesn’t mean it’ll work out and of course — there’s always a risk factor. There is with any high pick, even the perceived ‘safe’ picks (see: Aaron Curry).
Yet the prospect of it working out for him is well worth not only a top-five pick but also an aggressive move to make sure you get him.
I think someone is going to do it. I’m not sure who. But the chance of four quarterbacks going in the top-four has, in my opinion, become a very real possibility.
The four high-profile quarterback pro-days were fun to watch and highlighted positives with each player. If Trey Lance can have a bad pro-day like he did and still coax a team to trade up for him, I’d say that suggests there’s an extremely strong chance these four will be top-five picks.
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The Cards have a few holes to fill, new administration may jump at the chance to secure Anderson/Carter at 5 and (presumably) pick up 20 if they do the trade – despite handing Seattle a potential great QB. I don’t think it’s as much of an issue as we think.
But would any trade depend on which QB Seattle would take? Would Arizona feel more comfortable with them taking a project such as Richardson, than whoever else is left?
One thing I have come to appreciate about NFL GMs after watching John Schneider work for years is that they are wired for risk tolerance differently than normal people. They risk their jobs every draft. Is there some extra risk by trading with a division rival? Sure. But, that doesn’t make it a nonstarter. It is just one more piece of the risk/reward analysis.
One thing Seattle can offer that no other team can is the possibility that Arizona still gets the top defensive player at 5 that they were going to take at 3.
And we don’t know what the Arizona GM’s evaluation of Anthony Richardson is. Maybe he feels AR is not likely to succeed so the risk of the trade blowing up in his face is worth the chance to steal a valuable pick (#37?) from a division rival and still get the player they wanted all along.
No way Seattle gives up 5 and 20 for 3. It would be 5 and 37 for that 3.
If you believe in a QB enough to trade up, you give up 20 and be thankful it doesn’t require more. Seems like the Hawks are likely to be enamored w at least one of these QB. I think they grab hold of a historic opportunity and do what it takes to secure their guy.
When coming to the end of this great article and it said ‘233 responses’ I figured they would all say “Pay the Iron Price”…
I think teams’, coaches, and GMs egos often get too much in the way of perceived trade value. They think “well I’ll look bad if I offer too much that what I might otherwise be able to get away with’ and fail to secure a deal. In this case were talking about a potential new era of QB greatness for the Seahawks and their fanbase. Nobody is going to remember the TE or DL we missed out on by giving up that one extra pick. Losing out on the QBOTF makes next year’s draft (and future drafts) impossibly difficult. Pay the pice now, get your guy.
Excellent work Rob. I’m all in on Richardson. Make it so, Hawks!
Great article about AR and mock draft yesterday Rob.
At PFN, Pauline writes “For those keeping score, Richardson completed 55 of 62 passes, though there were several drops. He missed on a pair of 65-yard throws, but I’m told the receivers were not fast enough to run under his deep ball. There were a few passes that came out of his hand wobbly, and Richardson struggled to throw to his left. Passes to the right side were on the mark.
When it comes to Richardson the person, I’m hearing good things. He’s been described as humble and very down-to-earth during interviews. Speculation from league insiders during Florida’s pro day is the Seattle Seahawks could be the team that leapfrogs the Indianapolis Colts and trades up with the Arizona Cardinals to secure Richardson.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QQ0Voi1fuew
On this 5 min. CBS sports take with former Lions GM Rick Spielman, he mentions at the 3 min. mark that the perfect situation for him would be in Seattle learning behind Geno for a year or 2.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAa5Ty24_ok
An 11 min. take at ESPN with Mel Kiper mostly at the end + several others on his pro day, with a 2 min. interview at the 40 sec. mark after his performance. He seems very humble and wants to work on everything. Says he grew up watching Cam and Lamar, but now he watches Mahomes, Allen, Rodgers, Brady etc. to learn how to throw and do other things besides just be an athlete.
They show some drops, and mention he had a lot of them at Florida. No WRs like Toney or others, or TEs like Pitts, or even RBs like Pierce to take the pressure off this past year. And his few flaws likely are just because he’s so young (still just 20) and inexperienced.
Some great additional background here – thanks!
First time commenting in here after reading for about 2 years!
First of all I wanna say thanks to this amazing community and you, Rob, for all the extensive reading. That really is a joy for someone who loves football, but our media here in Germany sucks at scouting (they always go for mocks likewise the mainstream media in the US..).
As for Richardson: I would trade up for him to 3, if you really want him. But only, if it costs one of your 2nds and probably a 4th or so.
For Arizona, it is the best case and the worst case scenario at the same time. FWIW, they still get the player they would’ve taken at 3 anyways, on the other side they could lead us the our franchise guy.
Greetings from rainy Germany!
Greetings, and thank you for the kind words. Don’t be a stranger, feel free to comment more often 👍🏻
Will do that, thx!
Hallo Simon, so good to have someone else from Germany here!
Nice!
Deutschland resident readers assemble!!
AR is a phenom. I watched some of the pro day and was certainly wowed.
Like a creation from a Terminator film!… only super chilled rather than robotic – so not a very good comparison..
Isn’t any trade up to 3 only doable on Draft Night ?
Until then, you might trade up to 3, only for one of the top two teams to fall in love AR like the rest of us and take him. Surely you can’t risk that. You’d have to wait and see how the board falls and be prepared to do it on the night.
That’s how I would take these reports personally… it’ll be one of several scenarios they’re prepared for and a lever they’re willing to pull if the opportunity presents.
But trading up to 3 also guarantees you a QB
You don’t expensively trade up for a QB, you trade up for the QB.
Unless, JS is fine with every QB, and is desperate to land one of them.
And I would not be surprised if that’s the case.
Unless you’re from Santa Clara.
Not just a QB, but a choice between two of the top four. If there are truly four legit quarterbacks, you can’t lose.
I think this is a great point that will give us precious insight as to what their draft board really looks like. If Richardson is at 3 and they trade up, then we know exactly who they wanted. If he’s gone and they don’t trade up, maybe we know who they wanted, or the price was too high to swap with AZ. If they trade before the draft they graded at least 3 QBs at the same level (I agree I think this is unlikely, but maybe they’re concerned someone might throw in a heroic last minute offer and bounce them off an arranged deal). If they sit back and take QB#4, assuming AZ goes defense, they probably had 4 QBs rated at the same level. If they take Jalen Carter/Tyree Wilson/other, I give up.
PS. Had been looking forward to Rob’s report of AR’s pro day for a while now and it didn’t disappoint. Fantastic detail and analysis.
Thank you 👍🏻
I don’t think GMs, owners, or even fans care that much about intra-division trades. If the Cardinals build a good team in the next 3 years or so, the GM’s job will be safe regardless of what Seattle does. If they build a terrible team, it won’t be. I don’t think what Seattle does with a pick that they trade us will have much impact on that.
Presumably there’s a bit more hesitation trading within a division, but how much more? If you believe you are getting the better end of a good deal (and you must always believe that, or else why would you agree to the trade in the first place?), then why *not* trade with your division foes? You essentially believe you are f***ing them over by getting better value while they give up greater value.
And if the pick you give up in the deal turns into a fantastic player, I definitely understand how it could be an embarrassment, but honestly, is it “Career Suicide”? I don’t think so, and I don’t see much evidence that GMs view it that way either.
Also, the fact that Richardson will most likely sit for a year, takes a lot of the sting out of that bite. Most people will forget. Especially if Anderson lights it up his rookie year and beyhond, then people will probably be talking about how the Cards fleeced the Hawks.
This. Absolutely.
A GM will be judged first and foremost by his team’s success or lack thereof. That team needs so much and is held back by a bad huge contract, it would be moronic to pick at 3 in this draft. Remember you play 17 games, not 2, and are competing against 31 teams, not 1 or 3. They need more to be optimistic about than Will Anderson can provide.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/D6UM9VbXtRM
Wright is such a dominant RT, he would be tempting and possibly BPA at 20 if he lasts that long.
They listed 3 reasons with examples of why he’s so good in 1 minute. He’s so good, he could probably excel at left tackle or guard as well.
I believe I heard that they tried him at LT and it didn’t go well.
Couple of thoughts:
– Love it if PCJS ‘just go get their guy’ (Robbie quote)
– Must be a draft day trade given you don’t know how the 1st and 2nd picks will fall.
– Hou could take a defender and either Car or Hou could nab AR
– Don’t think the inter -division thing holds IF we get AR and they get Anderson plus extra picks
– I think it’s a win-win-win if Hawks stick, draft QB/DE or move
– If lower teams want to trade up, we still don’t have to move. But interest also might mean…
– Just maybe Hawks trade down if the 5th player isn’t right.
Rob, seeing that we wouldn’t be the only team trying to trade up to 3 (if we decide to pursue that), how much do you think it’d cost us realistically? Would there be a division foe premium to pay?
Good question. At what point do we trade up for 3 and we start to question what it’s cost?
I think it all depends on what other offers are out there and whether Seattle could drive the fact they own pick #5 as leverage
I think it’ll be to complicated to get a deal done. I don’t know what would work for both teams
I think Robbie pretty much nailed this.
You find out other teams compensation, decide if it’s a ridiculous amount, if not you say “I’ll see that and raise you pick #5”
I think it would take our second #20 pick. For AZ, they would get the guy they were gonna pick at #3 anyway and also add JMS or BPA. Just like Seattle.
While I agree wholeheartedly that a new GM trading a QBOTF to a division rival looks bad on the surface. It could be argued that Seahawks were gonna get their guy anyways also. So why not steal a couple picks from them to slow their rebuild?
It could realistically be viewed by them as the better move.
1- you still get your guy- positive
2- the Seahawks still get a QBoTF- negative but that was gonna happen either way.
3- you take valuable picks from a division rival.- positive
This is all based on the assumption that AZ wants Anderson considerably more than Wilson but it doesn’t seem as far fetched as I originally thought
I don’t know if it’s career suicide anyway you slice it.
AZ, to me, looks like a slow train wreck no matter what happens.
Regardless of what they do or don’t do I fully expect them to be picking top ten with the headache of what to do about qb in 2024.
Lets say they do trade up to 3 and take Richardson.
I’ve been thinking about something and haven’t seen it discussed. Then you said this ” The whole workout felt like he was saying, ‘bollocks to this — we all know I need to sit for a year or two and develop….”
If the goal is to win the Super Bowl when do we realistically think it’s a possibility under this scenario. And a couple things to keep in mind;
If trade you just lost Robs #20 pick idea from yesterday.
No Rookie QB has won a SB
6 second year QB’s have made SB with 4 winning it. All had first year playing time but only Russell had played all 32 games.
So if we draft Richardson, he sits year one and maybe two and then starts getting playing time.
And knowing historically very few QB’s get to SB their first year is 3 years out for SB contention fairly realistic?
And that’s assuming they draft well to shore up Defense and get quality offeneive RB’s, WR’s etc with depleted draft stock because of trade.
Is that okay with Pete/John?
I hope it’s good for them either way.
Look at Free Agency. Jones and Love possible building blocks.
Brown, Haynes, Reed, Bush, Wagner, the TE’s, Taylor, Nwossu….none of these signings and players are building blocks yet.
If you look at our roster as is factor in two things: Seattle’s inability thus far to draft meaningful Dline talent + the typical time it takes for dline talent to gel…..for all the positive vibes is this team well and truly competing for a superbowl this year? Or is it more likely that they’ve just made good progress towards that goal?
It’s definitely more realistic to win a Super Bowl sooner with the Richardson plan than with rolling with Geno until the tires fall off. To me, Geno doesn’t get us over the hump.
It’s a long-term plan with the upside, compared to a short-term plan with fewer overall pieces and a very low ceiling.
It could very easily be Picks #5 & #37 for #3.
Tony Pauline says “the cost to move up won’t be much for the Seahawks.”
#5 & #37 = 2230 points
#3 = 2200 points
Fair value in points + Anderson seems realistic in this scenario.
Didn’t Big Ben win it as a rookie against Seattle or was he a second year guy?
Nope. Just double checked.
I would hope AR would get some special packages put in for him and hopefully goal line duties inside the 5! That would lead to some playing time early and he would gain valuable experience and help his team in year one!
I hope it happens – go up to 3 to make sure you get him!
Go Hawks!
I saw one clip of AR15 sitting on the turf, legs out in front. Picked up a ball and threw it about 20-25yards downfield to the sideline for a receiver. not a lob, a delivered pass, from a sitting position.
I find this whole dynamics fascinating, I would bet lots of talks behind the closed doors or phones is happening, and i don’t think we will be able to figure this out, folks, unless the trade comes before the draft, which I think is unlikely.
I very much agree with Rob, that if Cardinals really like Anderson, Seahawks are their only realistic trading partners.
Because otherwise he won’t be there, and Cardinals know that.
Seahawks know, that Cardinals know that.
Thus, bargaining power is very low for the Cards. Our first 2nd rounder should do this.
Unless, they are not that sold on Anderson for whatever reasons, then i think we need to face the reality, Cards are not gonna trade with us, and will take the haul from any of teams Rob mentioned in a previous article.
What is really interesting to me, if sth happens before the draft. Because there is a merit, that a trade happens only after Panthers and Texans will make a pick.
What if Texans goes rogue and takes Anderson themselves? not unlikely.
What if AR goes 1 overall? What if AR and CJ Stroud goes 1 and 2 in whichever order?
For some teams it will impact the value of 3rd pick significantly. Teams might view QBs differently, and will want to offer a haul only for some specific players.
It is still possible, that any of the 3 QBs – Stroud AR or Young might be there at No. 3 spot.
Even if we a talking about first 5 picks, there are plenty of scenarios. And many dominos have to fall.
I’m so excited to see how this plays out. And you’re totally right, we have no clue how each team rates the different QBs and how that will affect trades to move up. We also don’t know how the Cardinals, seemingly the linchpin in these scenarios, rate the defensive prospects, the top 3 likely being Anderson, Wilson, and Carter. So moving further down than 5 might be fine with them. I also think Houston is more of a wildcard than people are anticipating. Chicago moved well out of the top five, so maybe Houston could be bribed on draft day? Especially if they have a sole QB1 rather than a 1a,1b etc.
Damn, isn’t speculating fun?
If Hawks are set on drafting a QB Cards could trade back twice. First #3 to #4 so Colts can secure their guy and then from #4 to #5 if Hawks afraid they might trade back with someone else 😀 highly doubt this would happen but a possibility.
Or Hawks could troll ARI by saying they want their QB, trade up to #3 and pick Anderson. That would really mess with the Cardinals 😂
But I think Hawks will stay put. Both Levis and Richardson are good QBs with potential and Anderson is a safe, good prospect for a need.
But I wouldn’t mind them trading up if they either prefer Levis or Richardson more or wants to secure a QBOTF for sure.
Even if they give up #37 they have 1xR1, 1xR2, 1xR3 to get 2 DL guys and a center also.
Or maybe they could do a pick swap #5+#20+#83 for #3+#34
My head is spinning thinking of all the permutations and combinations that could arise. And to think that JS will likely have only a few minutes to make a decision and then call AZ to make an offer ….mind boggling.
Some discussions must take place before draft day. Otherwise, you would face making a call and getting a busy signal …. and then watching time run out.
I haven’t used any of the mock draft software that is available, but I am assuming that each draft room has ready access to a system that tracks picks and then tells you what to do based on instructions you have input in advance such as if a, b, and c have happened, then do d. So long as you have done a good job of evaluating specifically what you want in advance, the system should be able to make the pick in a very short time.
I think if a trade happens at #3, it’ll probably happen before the Cardinals are on the clock. Maybe in the next two weeks.
Finally saw some #s for LB Sanders at Arkansas pro day this past Tue. 3/28. Might be an option early day 2.
Drew Sanders – Linebacker
Height: 6-4
Weight: 236
Bench Press (225 lbs): N/A
Broad Jump: 9-10
Vertical Jump: 37.0
40-yard Dash: 4.59
20-yard Shuttle: 4.38
L Drill: 7.15
Highlight: After not being able to participate in on-field drills at the NFL Combine, Sanders put his athleticism on display with a very impressive 37″ vertical jump and a quick 4.59 40-yard dash.
And an option for day 3 if he lasts – WR Matt Landers of Ark., thought to be just a possession receiver, but showed at the combine he has almost DK speed.
Matt Landers – Wide Receiver
Height: 6-4.5
Weight: 202
Bench Press (225 lbs): N/A
Broad Jump: 10-10*
Vertical Jump: 37.0*
40-yard Dash: 4.37*
20-yard Shuttle: 4.34
L Drill: 6.72
*NFL Combine
Highlight: Landers didn’t have to do much to improve on his impressive performance at the NFL Combine, but his L drill was smooth and he displayed his speed during receiver drills for scouts.
Thanks for this. Those are really solid numbers.
The only number that matters for me is 19.6% – the percent of tackles missed, higher than any other draft eligible linebacker
My takeaway from Richardsons pro day was that he is a natural leader and superstar personality. You get the feeling that he is supremely confident no matter how bright the lights but not in a cocky way. He still comes across and genuine and likeable.
With his incredible physical talent and personality it is hard not it imagine him as the face of the NFL in 5 yrs. For me he is one of those special athletes that comes along every 10-20 years and I would be shocked if Tepper and the Panthers don’t take him at #1.
They can go with very good in Stroud, very good but tiny in Bryce or shoot for the moon and go for an average QB who could be a superstar. For me the answer would be easy regarding who to pick.
You’ve just described Julio Rodriguez to a T. The thought of AR and Julio in Seattle for the next 10-12 years gives me the Seattle sports fan warm and fuzzies.
Matty Beniers too
Trevor – so what, if anything, can the Seahawks do to convince the Panthers to trade #1 to them? And, what are you willing to give up?
Wouldn’t it make more sense for the Colts to trade up to #3? They would guarantee themselves their preference of the two remaining qbs, while Arizona would be more assured of getting their favorite non-qb, presumably Anderson, would gain some draft capital, and would avoid dealing with the division-rival Seahawks.
If the Colts like all four QB’s in a similar way, they’ll feel no pressure to move up
Richardson certainly has everything you could ever dream of from a talent perspective. I think it is worth taking a big swing at him.
Assuming they are interested (as they well should be), it is difficult to figure out what kind of compensation the trade would require. Giving up 5 and 20 is a steep price to move up 2 spots and would appear to be a significant overpay based on some of the trade charts I have reviewed. Ideally, they could broker a swap of 3 and 34 for 5 and 20–as I suspect the Seahawks are looking to move down from 20 anyway. However, Seattle will have to sweeten the pot more to make that work. I would hate to give up 52 (and 37 sort of defeats the purpose of including Arizona’s 34th pick), but am not sure 83 and a future 3rd or 4th will be tempting enough.
Looks like Jonathan Mingo is being noticed at last…
https://twitter.com/jimnagy_sb/status/1641787478720892928?s=46&t=uv5_Cfk4hepYHPYUO6WNbQ
SDB knows…
Damn. Round one? I was seriously dark horsing him to Seattle in my mind in the 50’s.
👍
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/kncrVQoEJSo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6K4iuhVlbM
2 more highlight vids from the Senior Bowl, first one is only 7 seconds and the other is several plays and just under a minute. I’m with Peter, thought we could get him on day 2. PFN’s crazy simulator used to have him still available day 3 in the 4th or 5th round.
I don’t mind the idea of trading up for a QB, I’m all-in on QB over Anderson, but I don’t know what level of security trading up to 3 gets them. There’s a chance both Richardson and Stroud go in the top 2, and now you’ve traded up to get Levis or Young, which I’m less enthused about.
Unless we’re talking trading up to 2.
Well if they trade up to #3 it will mean there are three players they really like
You don’t trade up for Will Anderson, trading up for a QB is the only reason to do something like this. Will Anderson doesnt improve this team much compared to a QBoTF
Yes, you’ve made your position very clear on this
And others have said, as I have, that we don’t agree on Anderson and feel he is better than you do, and can see why the Seahawks might love him as a player
That’s fine, but this is a once in a generation opportunity to land a high upside QBoTF. You’ve said yourself that Anderson is not an “elite” prospect. I just don’t see how you don’t take a potential franchise QB if they decide to move up whether it’s Levis or Richardson. You’ve said yourself these QBs are the type JS likes and tailor made. I know you say you’re good with either a QB or Anderson but you have to admit there’s more excitement to have a potential Franchise QB for the long haul and could become a Superstar.
But you’re in danger of repeating the same point, which most people have already accepted and many of us agree with.
Every time Anderson’s name is brought up, you don’t always have to fight against it.
Think we can both agree that this will be a long 4 weeks till draft day and can’t get here soon enough. At least there’s Mariners ⚾ to distract from now till then.
I can see it. And i also believe arizona would be open to make a deal with us. Yes, the new GM doesnt want to be known as the guy who gave us our QOTF (we also get a QB if they pick at #3). But same could be said about Anderson. If they really want to draft him, dealing with Vegas or Atlanta would almost certainly give us Anderson. So he could be known as the GM who passed on Anderson so that we could draft him. Detroit would probably go for Tyree and nobody would be left for them on the defensive side. So staying put could be more attractive than trading down with a QB needy team. And if thats the case, getting some extra picks from us and still getting Will could be a option. I dont know what we would have to give up. Looking at the draft pick value sheet, #37 could be enough (although we probably have to give up more as a rival). Maybe #5 and #20 for #3 and we get a 3rd or 4th rounder back?
That’s a great point about giving us Anderson. You’d have to think they would rather give us a QB we’re likely to get anyways and get Anderson plus another high pick for their troubles.
We keep talking about AR being made in a factory for JS, but I think PC will be equally banging the table for him. We know PC is attracted to physically unique talents. We know he loves chunk plays and the ability to keep plays alive. We know that he cares about personality and character.
AR is as unique a physical specimen at his position to enter the league in, maybe ever? He has the tools to push the ball down field and keep plays alive. I think most importantly, he has the personality. Watching the way he was just having fun and smiling out there yesterday reminded me of how Pete is always smiling and having fun at practice seeing if he can throw passes. They seem like very similar personalities. Fun loving, thoughtful, driven to be great. It’s basically Pete Carroll’s brain in the body of a Terminator.
I have to assume that PC is telling JS, I want to work with this “kid”.
His whole overcoming adversity story screams Seahawks
After watching highlights only (not full game scout), combine and Pro Days I think AR has jumped ahead of Levis based on upside.
I personally like the fact that Levis has literally carved himself into a top athlete and it seems to be more out of hard work than natural ability. I just saw too many examples of poor decision making or poor execution (mostly under-thrown passes) at times when watching tape, that adds an element of risk that the other QB’s may find easier to overcome.
I think if somehow both Levis and Anderson were on the board, I’d select Anderson regardless.
I really do want a QB, but for me there’s a clear top 3 and 1 x QB that belongs outside the Top 10.
The crux of the issue though is that there aren’t too many prospects that belong in the Top 10, as such you’d be selecting a player with similar talent as Levis at #5 anyway.
It’s a good problem to have, but if I was to grade these players on tape & talent – only 4 prospects BELONG in the Top 5.
You could argue these players have higher talent/tape than Levis:
Tyree Wilson
Jalen Carter
Christian Gonzales
Bijan Robinson
Devon Witherspoon
Peter Skoronski
Michael Mayer
Brian Branch
Darnell Wright
I do have to caveat this with the fact the Seahawks have 2 x 1st round picks, so they can afford to take more of a risk on these selections than perhaps they would have in any other year. Maybe this tilts them towards Levis if he is the last QB standing @ #5.
Good problems to have though…..
Trade up or stay, if you get him you will have more or less 2 outcomes. Either you nail it, and he becomes THE Seahawk for 10-15 years, or you atleast gave it a shot and give it all to create another chance at a dynasty.
This year the draft has to be more interesting than it has been in so long. All I want really is for another year of “man that felt good” and hope for an entertaining season.
Also looking forward to the Post-draft coverage of next years QBs. How many are there that seem to be 1st round guys, who is worth trading the house for next year (or tank of course)?
But how can this be??? Brian Nemhauser says there is a less than 5% chance that the Seahawks take a Quarterback with the 5th pick. He’s totally not projecting his own personal preferences! He knows how John Schneider thinks.
😂😂😂
He also said the chances of resigning Bobby were at 30%.
It’s unlikely the Seahawks value all of these quarterbacks the same so if they feel strongly about a specific guy, they have to trade up. Will they? I don’t think so. My guess is they want Anderson at 5 and will take Hooker at 20 or early 2nd round.
They won’t value them all the same but I’d be surprised if they didn’t really like all four
As I’ve said a few times, they all look factory made for John Schneider
JS said yesterday that he told Lock and Geno in their exit interviews that they’re picking at 5 and don’t expect to be there again so don’t be shocked if they go QB.
THE SMOKESCREEN GOES SO DEEP THEY ARE SMOKING THEIR OWN GUYS
What if the real smokescreen was the friends you made along the way…..
I’m getting worried that Seattle is going to smokescreen themselves so hard they are going to not even show up on draft day.
John Schneider, but a draft version:
https://youtu.be/mLETOxd_bWI
Dead! Thanks for this!
Actually it’s on purpose.
Best way to save cap space is to not draft anyone at all.
//taps temple
You’re either
competingdrafting or you’re not😂🤣
😂 ya’ll are killing me this morning
The problem with smokescreens is they effect everyone, will anyone even be able to find their way to the podium? Will there even BE a draft this year??
‘The NFL draft was cancelled today, after it emerged Seahawks twitter had identified 742 different smokescreens that were definitely true. This led to the stage being submerged in smoke and Roger Goodell fell off the stage. He had to be rescued by Laremy Tunsil, who offered to help after it emerged he still had the gas mask’
Ha!!
Next year’s owners meeting:
-flexing Thursday night games
-make overtime more convoluted?
-SEATTLE shall be barred from further smokescreens.
Hmmm… I think by posting that you’re trying to smokescreen me
I will just send a tweet out about this
😂 😆 😂 Love it. Keep the smokescreen memes coming!
Tunsil said to the media afterward, “I just feel vindicated, man. Ya’ll thought I was just a paranoid pothead, but I have been preparing, year after year, for just this moment to arrive, as was foretold to me in that smoke-filled vision 7 years ago.”
All you guys got me in stitches, especially the Tunsil aspect.
They are one of the few places I like to listen to.
But I do find it wild that so many of the voices there have such intense feelings about the qbs/qb situation but when they get into their mock drafts they seemingly shift from having vast Intel on the qb prospects to not knowing the most basic players in this draft.
(((one of them doing a mock draft the other day called Will Levis “Will Levi’s”…tells you all you need to know)))
Roger Goodell’s going to throw on some 501’s for the pick announcement
Saw it….🙄
That guy ruins the podcast – I always jump ahead when he speaks.
I used to enjoy them. But the moment that Nathan went off on Rob for talking about Bobby’s play dropping, I was about done. Since then, it’s “this is my opinion, everything else is just wrong.”
Ethan is like a little chihuahua that won’t stop barking. Nathan is literally allergic to running backs. And Brian has gotten really negative.
Jeff is a national treasure, however. For Canada and the US.
Honestly I am only trolling them because I like to read his commentary and analysis. I remain absolutely baffled why I would ever give a shit what another fan on the internet thinks. Fandom is weird.
What I appreciate about this site is, despite often disagreeing with Rob, there is a commitment to intelligent analysis. And a willingness to be intellectually flexible. Ultimately… we don’t know. Ultimately… those in the front office, the PC/JS tag team duo, are going to have multiple options on the table and also be intellectually flexible.
Saying X, Y, or Z will happen is just an assured way for me to not take you seriously.
Final sarcastic comment: also annoyed that most of what passes for Seahawks online content seems to be stealing or at least derivative of what you find here.
It’s an issue you see year after year.
Rob starts talking about things months before anyone else.
The collective fanbase freaks out / rejects it with all their might. “Rob beats the drum for X and won’t move off that position!”
A couple months in, the national media starts sniffing around the points, and the tide starts turning.
At this point, some wake up to the reality and start talking like they’ve just discovered this new truth and point to those national voices that are talking about it.
The rest entrench themselves in their opposition and scream even louder that Rob won’t move off his position (as if that were a viable rejoinder to well thought out facts and reason).
Meanwhile SDB has long since worked through it all and moved onto the next few rounds of talking points.
It’s the price of being a thought leader.
Thanks man
Appreciate this community 👏🏻🙏🏻
You ever know a subject really well and then hear it be discussed on the news or somewhere and you think, ‘these people don’t know wtf they’re talking about? And then you have a moment of clarity when you realize those people are probably not just ignorant about this one issue but probably most subjects they discuss.
I think that applies to most Seahawks discussion. Especially since you don’t even need a degree or any credentials to spout out an opinion on social media. It must be endlessly frustrating for Rob to listen to these idiotic takes based on shallow analysis when he does such extensive homework to know what the fuck he’s talking about. I mean you watch every game of a guy, watch his interviews, analyze his testing numbers, speak to in-the-know guys about him, do every but of due diligence you can before launching an opinions and then some yahoo on twitters just regurgitates an opinion that’s not even his own in response.
Neumhauser is a 🤡. He comes off as a homer to me.
I like Hawkblogger and continue to read his stuff but I’m finding the cognitive dissonance with Seattle possibly taking a QB with him frustrating.
The guy says his preference is not to take a QB, which is fine, I disagree but perfectly valid. But when you’ve said that and then the whole staff travels to all 4 top QB pro days, the team openly says to everyone who asks, including their own players, that QB is an option and you double down as being even more certain than before that they aren’t interested? Can’t you see what you’re doing?
The mental gymnastics is astounding.
Why not just embrace that it’s a possibility? My preference is the team to do whatever it takes to get AR, but I’m not denying any possibility that they might take someone else.
Because Seahawks Twitter can’t help itself
Pick a team, go to battle
Rinse and repeat, on every bloody topic
I think Hawkblogger’s in-season and post-game analysis is pretty good, I read him for that, but his draft takes have always been atrocious. See his Ken Walker pick reactions last year…
That exact moment was when I stopped. I didn’t need to see a grown man throw a fit. I have a toddler for that.
I love when Rob has Jeff on, but I laugh because when he’s on with Rob he’s all pro-QB at 5, and then when he’s on with Brian he seems to switch to team DL.
Is that true???
It is…he is able to argue either point pretty well too.
Ok….
I can confirm this too. I think this is a case Jeff knows his audience and plays along accordingly.
😕😕😕
Here here. Wasn’t he still arguing for Carter at 5 recently 🙄
Brian Nemhauser’s views don’t generally comport with mine, but that’s irrelevant to my dislike for his persona. No, it’s his consistent butchery of the English language that I simply will not endure. He talks like an ’80s valley girl, jamming in the word ‘like’ approximately every seventh syllable, while ending his phrases with that upward inflection so typical of the modern, permanent adolescent. I’m just sick of the whole beta male thing, generally. If he ever decides to start communicating like an adult, I’ll give him a whirl. Till then…
This is funny.
I was wondering what Rob thought of Brian Nemhauser and I guess now I know.
What I don’t know is how that guy has as many followers as he does. There’s literally no insight. I’m out in the cheap seats in terms of Seahawks information and yet when I listen to BN I keep saying, “How dumb is that? Of course the Hawks aren’t going to do that. It’s so basic – Why doesn’t he know that?”
🤦♂️
I haven’t said anything about Brian.
Apologies Rob. Just thought when you replied to the original posters comment on Brian with “😂😂😂” that you were saying something (unflattering).
Feel free to correct the record on the subject.
One think I’ve been wondering is how they view Richardson’s ability to execute an offensive plan and not totally rely on ad-libbing and scrambling. IMO that was the biggest difference going from Russ to Geno. For all of Russ’ talent, he just absolutely is not the kind of QB who can drop back and throw the ball on time when his back foot hits the last step. Geno did a far better job executing Waldron’s offense and was far more willing to step up into the pocket as he waited for routes to develop instead of breaking the pocket at the first sniff of pressure.
Do we think AR can be that type of player? Can that be taught? Or does it even matter?
Yes — and the tape already shows Richardson functioning within an offense with pro-tendencies. He’s not a major improv guy all the time. But when the play breaks down, watch out.
I sort of see AR as a cross between Jamarcus Russell, Mike Vick and Geno Smith.
He flicks his wrist and launches deep balls like JR, but isn’t as hefty as JR (which could be a good thing, given how Russell ballooned). I don’t see him being lazy or the type to not watch tape, issues that were cited about Russell. I just see the similarities in the deep ball and ease of delivery.
He runs like Michael Vick, but is taller and bigger.
From my limited observations, I see him having a similar personality to Geno Smith. I don’t think he has the same liabilities as Russell or Vick. He seems to take the game more seriously like Geno.
Overall, I see AR as ridiculously – explosive! He can change the game with one run or a flick of the wrist. But, he’s not going to sit in the pocket and deliver passes over the middle. So, I see style of offense being a deciding factor between he and Levis. If you take AR, you build him an offense like the Ravens. If you take Levis, you build him an offense like the Bills.
JR
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uSkVFkFgrXo
Geno
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9DZrJ_ucB_I
Vick
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=r11ZBxy9ox8
AR
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cWAY9VMOe0I
Geno seems fiery to me (see: Chargers game)
AR seems very cool, calm and collected
So glad you mentioned this. I don’t know. I have seen physical traits like this since Jamarcus was drafted. Just as incredible as physical talent. Speed and mobility are insane as well. If he can put it all together, we are probably looking at an all-time great.
The nice thing to is that we are a very different organization than the 08 Raiders, so he would get a legitimate chance to succeed here and be supported unlike Jamarcus, who I still believe would have made it had he gone just about anywhere else at the time.
Year 1 – sits behind geno/lock
Year 2- starts – only 2 first year starters won a SB (warner, brady) -Realistically only his second year playing position during games.
year 3 – 4 second year QB’s won SB (warner, brady, roth, russell)
I think minimum with good drafting 3-4 years before Super Bowl contention with trade up for Richardson.
I’m eyeballing the Raiders as spoilers. I can see Arizona taking the 3 firsts from them and giving the crux to Seattle.
Also, Richardson looked like the 20 year old he is, having fun on the field.
I don’t think the Raiders will take that risk tbh Roy. Their track record in the draft recently is abysmal. I dont think they will risk 3 firsts (they don’t have that this year do they? Nice for them if so!).
Alot of this simply comes down to how much AZ likes Will Anderson.
Trade to #2 with Houston.
I continue to be a little worried that the only player remaining at #5 is Bryce Young, who is the only of the five that I am not excited about. Regardless of what you think of Young’s game, his body-type demands a team willing to take on that risk, design an offense around it, etc., etc., etc. Given PC/JS’s preferences for a dynamo (Young does seem Point Guard-y, to be fair) they might share this sentiment. My personal preference would be to trade back if that was our only option. The reason I mention is this that I think that this is somewhat likely. As Rob mentions, Young’s pro-day (and combine!) were the outliers, the only ones that felt like a drag. Yes, the tape looks good. But also, as said, this is a league focused on projecting players. I guess I am assuming that if we are all thinking this, then others in the league are thinking this too. Much of the Young at #2 hype is based upon the media echo-chamber. Houston remains a big wildcard (as Robbie and others have mentioned). This might be a big reason why the Seahawks would *need* to trade up to secure their QB. Moreover, my personal not-buying-into Young could be mirrored by PC/JS about Stroud/Levis/Richardson. Maybe for whatever reason (accuracy, processing, character, etc.), they just don’t buy into one of the QBs and aren’t willing to invest their future into them. I don’t think this possibility can so easily be dismissed. I think they’re only drafting a QB if they “believe” in them. A trade up is thus possible. But so is a trade back. It would also suck so frickin’ much to be within striking distance of the player [we/they] want but, for whatever reason, [we/they] just can’t make it happen. I’d be disappointed in a trade back, but I also wonder what that would look like: the haul, who we would be targeting instead, etc., etc.
I’ll take Young at #5 & be extremely happy. He just knows how to win.
I definitely don’t think it’s anything you have to worry about though
I really see Levis as tailor-made for the Colts. I have a harder time seeing them taking AR. If Seattle trades up to 3, it could be they like Levis and want to jump Indy. But, I think it’s more they’re trying to avoid the Raiders, Falcons, etc. from moving up and taking AR, who would be an ideal fit their schemes. Unlike those teams, as you mention, the Hawks can offer AZ #5 to get Will Anderson (and they have the highest second pick to offer in #20). It really makes sense for both teams.
#5 + #20 is waaay too much draft capital for #3.
More like #5 + #37.
Or maybe (if we get a tad lucky) #5 + #52.
Or if it must be a second, #5 + 2024 2nd for #3.
We can always get a pick back by trading down from #20 into the mid to low 20s.
https://twitter.com/Joe_Fann/status/1641647904132841472
One of baseball’s best hitters looking a fool
I think Brock stated that Brash had over 3000 RPM on that pitch.
That is astounding.
Count: Full
Spin: 3,131 RPM
Horizontal break: 16.2 inches
Velo: 86.8 mph
That’s insane.
That slider of his is absolute filth.
https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1641809126303887360
woof
It would be hilarious if the Raiders traded up to 3, then promptly turned around and traded that pick to Seattle, then drafted Anderson.
Seattle gets their QB and the Raiders further screw Arizona with the Anderson pick.
Per Corbin Smith:
Trying to get a feel of the chances Carolina takes him #1 overall to assess a move up to #3?
But wasn’t Smith one of the people that said no way Seattle goes QB?
Strangely rang has been quietly positing they go qb and not to rule it out for some time.
Seattle media is behind this blog, as usual. Michael-Shawn Dugar was talking about how after signing Geno, Seattle would definitely be going defense at #5, but just wrote an article about how the Seahawks QB tour isn’t a smokescreen. The tide is turning.
I guess the question for Monti Ossenfort is, is it more important to help your own team or sabotage a division rival? By staying put, he gets the player he wants, and keeps a QB out of the hands of a division rival. By trading down, he still gets the player he wants, plus picks for another player or two, but helps their division rival get the QB they want. Tough call.
To add to this, he not only gets picks for another player or two, but he takes those picks/players away from his division rival as well.
And they’d save about $5 million in cap space for the slotting value of the pick (#3 vs. #5).
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/draft/
The thing I keep coming back to is we’re at least two years away from being in a place where ARI trading with SEA could be viewed as a boneheaded move.
In the short term, if ARI traded down to 5 and still got Will Anderson, PLUS added another 1st or a high 2nd rounder, it would be viewed as a masterful move for a new GM to get the best defensive player in the draft plus another impact player.
The only time/situation where this could impact their GM is in 2-3 years if AR turns out to be a star AND Will Anderson and whatever else they were to get with our other pick ended up being “meh”. Even then, in a few years if ARI is competitive, but AR is a star, I’m not sure people are calling for his head.
I can’t imagine their fanbase being anything other than excited about getting Will Anderson plus another high pick.
I should have added: A far more realistic knock against their GM would be coming out of this draft WITHOUT will Anderson. That’s why I can’t see them trading with anyone else but us.
“You had your shot at Will Anderson and you traded it away? For what!?” That’s far more damning IMO.
Good point. You had your shot, really, at having your cake and eating it too with Will Anderson and instead traded it away to spite a division rival for…Jalen Carter?! Fired!
Exactly. It’s hard to tell where Ossenfort comes down on this, and that’s the deciding facter (that and if Seattle is willing to trade up). He might take flack for in now, and that could scare him off. We’ll see.
Sending a superstar player to a division rival would be one thing, but simply moving around lottery tickets I think is quite another. If you can make your team better then do it and don’t worry about “what ifs”. Ultimately a GM is graded on how well he has constructed his team and what results has it produced. It’s not even like Richardson will come in and light up the league year one. If there’s any flak from a trade like this it will be 3 years down the road and Ossenfont’s bed will be made by then.
Rob how would you rank the QB pro days after seeing all 4?
I don’t think you can rank them really, they were all very different
I’ll take a stab:
1.
2.
3.
4. Young
For the Cardinals, there are three options:
1. Take Will Anderson and Seattle takes their QBOTF with pick 5
2. Trade out of the top 5 and Seattle gets Will Anderson
3. Trade with Seattle so you still get Will Anderson + compensation and Seattle still gets their QBOTF.
Honestly, I only see two real options for ARI unless they just don’t view Will Anderson the same way that the rest of the league seems to. Both the options that land them the best defensive player in the draft result in Seattle getting their QBOTF. Why not get compensated for it?
4. Trade down and the Seahawks take Will Anderson and you’re left looking silly
Nah, JS has one of the best reputations in the league as someone who is good to deal with and fair/reasonable with trades. No way JS is doing something shady like tricking another GM into swapping picks so he can steal the player the other team wanted.
That may be how things work in professional soccer, but the NFL GM club is pretty civil to one another. No way JS “pulls one over” on ARI. His reputation amongst the GM community would take a huge hit. He’s worked hard to build his reputation. He’s not about to throw that away for Will Anderson.
Not sure what ‘professional soccer’ (it’s football, not soccer BTW) has to do with anything
It’ll take every Seahawks have four seconds to think of a shady act of contract negotiating within the NFL
And he doesn’t have to ‘pull one over’ on anyone. He doesn’t have to tell Arizona anything about his intentions. If Arizona moves down, they are embracing themselves that there are multiple players they are happy with at #5
Thanks so much for correcting me Rob! I’ll call it Football to make you happy
I reference soccer… I mean Football, because here in the state it has a reputation of being very cutthroat.
I think you’re underestimating the relationships that the GMs have with one another. You can’t possibly think that if two GMs talking about swapping a pick a couple picks apart that they wouldn’t be discussing who they intend to take?
Would said gentleman’s agreement show up in the official trade paperwork to the league? nope. But I think it’s naive to think that they wouldn’t discuss it and that they wouldn’t intentionally mislead each other to take the player the other team wanted.
I think I disagree with you here, my example would be poker.
In poker, you bet, but you don’t show your hand. Betting would relate to the horse trading with picks.
If you say the player you are interested in, thats literally showing your hand. Why would you do that? It only hurts your position. Sure, it might ‘help’ if the player you want is not the player the other team wants, but then the team you are trading with could broadcast that information to other GMs and fuck you over.
I don’t see it being smart or advantageous to say who you want to trade up for, just like you aren’t gonna say you are holding a deuce 7 offsuit in holdem.
“Monti, hey It’s John. Curious if you’re entertaining moving out of the third spot”
“Hey John, yeah, people are calling, but nothing serious yet. We’re in a pretty good spot.”
“I see. Well Pete and I are leaning towards QB with our first pick. You thinking Anderson is your guy?”
“He’s a special player. Hard to imagine moving out of a position to draft him”
“I understand. Tell you what, Let us hop ahead of IND so we can get our pick of the QBs and that basically guarantees you get Anderson. We get whichever QB we end up liking more, you get Anderson and an extra pick. IND is left with the scraps.”
“Done.”
That type of thing absolutely happens.
I’m pretty sure it’s a bit more complicated than that Cysco
Plus there’s no guarantee Indy won’t trade out of #4 then no Will Anderson for Arizona
I’m pretty sure it’s not that complicated Rob. (Not that you’ll see this)
This is a close group of executives that routinely get together for open bars and have each other on speed dial. Many of them are “old school” where their handshake and their word is all that is needed.
I’ve personally been a part high dollar business deals in the entertainment industry. My biggest was birthed, negotiated and “closed” over tequila shots and a handshake in a bar.
If deals in my industry can routinely get done this informally, I can only imagine what the NFL is like.
It’s a delicate, leverage driven business deal
With multiple parties involved
It isn’t going to be a quick five mins on the phone
That should make them happier. They get to trade down again, with the 4th QB as the bait. That team really is in a place where accumulating draft capital, both 2023 and future should be the plan. One defensive player isn’t gonna help them make Kyler’s contract less of a problem or help them when they can get out of it.
Rob, excellent work as always. A true treasure for Seahawks fans.
I do understand that it could look bad for AZ to move back and hand Seattle it’s quarterback of the future. However, I think there’s a decent counter. Assuming AZ wants Anderson and feels confident the Seahawks will take a QB, there’s really no reason not to trade with Seattle. If they simply stay put and take Anderson, Seattle is getting its quarterback anyway. The only way to stop it is to trade with someone else. But if they like Anderson, it doesn’t make sense to screw the Seahawks at the expense of their own team. So why not take the pragmatic approach, gain a pick or 2, and get their desired player.
But what happens if Indy takes Anderson? Or trades down with, say, Detroit? Indy still gets their QB. You don’t get Anderson.
I suppose there’s possible risk but I’d be shocked if the Colts took Anderson. I also think they’d be playing with fire moving back when their QB need is so great and long-standing. AZ could certainly trade back again if Anderson is off the board at 4 with another QB needy team.
This is a good point. It’s not certain, at least to Arizona, that Indy will take a quarterback and not Anderson instead. Of course we also don’t know if Anderson is who Arizona will take. Only five picks, and there’s so many possibilities, we’re gonna go crazy thinking of them all.
If they see Anderson as that good, they just have to remember that the Hawks lucked into a top 5 pick in a draft with a big top 5 and there’s nothing they can do to change that. Refusing a deal that would make his team better is truly the dumbest choice.
I have thought this in 9 out of 10 draft situations. They have to-
I think the smokescreen idea of this is being overplayed a little by those with a preference to not pick QB
JS & PC have been massive proponents of being ‘in on everything’ for so long, I’d almost be surprised if they hadn’t at least had a conversation with Arizona about what it would take to move up (Seems undeniable at this point they like some of the guys at the top of this draft inc. AR). Saying the Seahawks wouldn’t put this out there unless it was a smokescreen is almost irrelevant, as Arizona would have interest in it being out there to get an understanding of what other offers there might be on the table from LV or ATL.
Whether the Seahawks end up pulling the trigger seems pretty unclear, but them getting a feeling for the price and going after their guy (whoever that is) just sounds like exactly who we know JS and PC to be.
The situation with pick #3 is so fascinating to me.
On one hand – I completely understand the logic of Arizona not wanting to trade with their division rival. If Anthony Richardson reaches his massive potential, you’ll be reminded of your mistake twice every season and likely again while watching the playoffs from your couch at home.
On the other hand – If Arizona decides to make a trade with the Raiders or Falcons, they’ve essentially delivered the top pass rusher, Will Anderson, to their division rival on a silver platter. Who, by the way, will also be tormenting their team twice a year. Is this as bad of a look as letting your division rival get their QBOTF? No. But it’s not a great situation either. I can already visualize Anderson feasting on a beat up Kyler Murray twice a year.
Yes, an argument can be made that the Cardinals might rate Tyree Wilson just as high as Will Anderson, but there’s no guarantee that he’ll be there at pick #7 or #8
IMO the Cardinals will likely end up sitting on the pick or trading it to IND or SEA. Either way, it’s a great spot to be in for Seattle.
This is a very pragmatic way to view Arizona’s dilemma DJay. Thinking Detroit takes either Anderson/Wilson.
If PCJS thought Richardson was the future, would they have given that contract to Geno a few weeks back? They’re not making this up as they go along. They’re not optimizing for 3 years down the road. Pete will probably be looking at retirement by then.
Fortunately if they can convince you it’s possible, then some other front offices might believe it. Seahawks draft Will Anderson.
Somebody else tell him about Geno’s contract
🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️
I’ll skip the fine print.
Last year you trade away Wilson and you’re staring down the season with “two #1’s,” in two qbs who had up to that point been busts. Complete and total.
You know you’re coming into the season with two firsts and a presumably good to great qb class.
The Vegas odds flip and instead of us getting the natural 5-7 pick even better that pick comes from Denver.
So now on the heels of a completely unforeseen season by Geno, to which you sign a probowl qb the MOST team friendly deal maybe ever seen, you punt on qb because the window to win a superbowl is thrown all the way open?
Nah, I doubt it. Maybe they don’t take qb. I’d think the likelihood is around 50/50. Maybe higher at this point.
If one thing is this world screams “we are wanting to draft a quarterback early” it is Geno and Drew’s contracts.
It amazes me that people think Geno is a long-term solution when the team gave him a contract that literally says “you aren’t going to be here very long. You might not even be here next year.” Never mind that they told both guys that there could be a rookie.
Lock’s contract is the ultimate hedge. “We need a backup, let’s just keep the guy we have.”
It’s like looking at the sky and arguing that it’s green. They aren’t convincing anyone of anything, people are doing that themselves.
Accounting for inflation, the Geno contract is very similar to Matt Flynn’s. Should we have not drafted Russell Wilson, let alone chose him to start week 1?
If Seahawks can pick up Richardson in round 3 and he outcompetes Geno, I’m all for it.
I think it’s time for Mr tubesteak to get back on the tube and eat a steak
The point was that his analogy was way off.
Very true, you were in fact referring to Wilson and I missed that.
But you’re missing the point, which is that Geno’s contact isn’t quarterback of the future money and also, why would they have thought, at the start of free agency, that Richardson was the future when the draft hasn’t even happened yet and he’s not on the team? Richardson could still go 1st overall, and then they’d have let someone else sign Geno, and now what’s that do to their plans? They’re completely screwed. Also, they told Geno and Lock before resigning them that they might still pick a quarterback and made sure they were OK with that. You seem certain about a lot of presumptions, but it’s just you presuming.
With respect tubesteak, we’ve been talking about the issues around this contract since November.
https://seahawksdraftblog.com/curtis-allen-talking-through-a-geno-smith-extension
The contract I outlined was specifically set to give the Seahawks an out.
And it’s precisely what the Seahawks gave Geno.
I spit out my drink when I read “with respect tubesteak”.
I’m aware it’s a team friendly deal.
Pete has a few years left. He has a good relationship with Geno, who’s one of the top QBs in the NFC. He’s riding it out to the end with Geno.
If you don’t believe that is true, that means they plan to start Geno for just one year, then let him go so they can improve slightly at the QB position with [undetermined 4th best QB prospect] for the ’24/’25 seasons? Instead of filling an important hole with elite talent?
Not to mention it would be doing Geno kind of dirty when he could’ve landed a more stable QB situation. The Bobby stuff was pretty minor. Pete’s not ruthless like Belichick.
You’re missing the point steakytube
Geno’s future is to be determined. Your original post inferred they’d made a three-year commitment to Smith. They haven’t. It’s essentially a one-year look-see and take it from there. Nothing about that contract is a firm commitment.
Carroll wouldn’t be ruthless in cutting or trading Smith in 12 months unless he plays lights out in 2023. If he doesn’t play that well, nobody will bat an eye-lid. My hope, as I’ve said all along, is to create an Alex Smith-to-Patrick Mahomes torch-pass. In that scenario, KC traded Smith and got a starting cornerback and a third round pick in return. They also gave Mahomes a year of development which I think it’s fair to say he benefitted from.
So it all means they can easily, justifiably take a QB at #5 or #3 or #20 or whenever. Smith’s future is flexible. The Seahawks could even spend three years developing their rookie if they wanted to. See: Aaron Rodgers.
That’s the situation. Purely and simply. Anything is on the table. It’s why it’s such a good deal.
Bollocks, I said I wasn’t getting involved.
Nobody put a gun to Geno’s head and forced him to sign.
And what’s more, both PC, JS, and Geno have remarked that they understand that a QB at 5 is in play.
So I’m not sure if you’re not aware of those things or just deliberately misunderstanding.
And if you don’t mind, Geno had one good season in the NFL, that doesn’t make him a top QB, nor can you be certain he’ll keep performing at that level. The deal was made precisely to protect Seattle from Geno turning into a bust. And you need a plan for what happens after Geno anyways, why not start preparing for that now?
What is the cost of moving up to #3 for different teams? If there are indeed more teams than QBs, the draft day value could have a significant premium. That said, looking at the Jimmy Johnson and RIch Hill draft value tables, the cost for the third pick (unless otherwise noted) focusing on this year’s draft capital:
Indianapolis: 4 + 35 for 3 + 96 (JJ); 4 + 106 (RH)
Seattle: 5 + 37 (JJ); 5 + 83 (RH)
Las Vegas: 7 + 38 + 70 (JJ); 7 + 70 + 141 (RH)
Atlanta: 8 + 44 + 75 + 110 +113 (JJ); 8 + 44 + 159 for 3 + 105 (RH)
Tennessee: 11+ 41 + 72 + 2024 pick(s) (JJ); 11 + 41 + 147 (RH)
Even though I think the Jimmy Johnson model puts a bit too much value at the top end of the first round, I think it could be the closer one for this case. Atlanta and Tennessee would be trading large chunks of this year’s draft and/or future picks to move up. I don’t know enough about the owners or states of their rosters to gauge a likelihood of them to go all in on a QB this year.
The trade amounts above do reinforce the advantage that Seattle has over Las Vegas. The amount of draft capital to move up is already noticeably greater, and that’s without acknowledging that moving down to #7 would take Anderson out of reach for Arizona.
I seem to recall there was a draft involving a GM spending all his draft recourses for one guy he “fell in love” with. Who’s to say there isn’t a desperate to make a splash move GM out there even in these times? Although maybe not a whole draft class in trade, but an offer so good that it couldn’t be refused.
Ditka’s eight-pick trade for Ricky Williams…
Atlanta trading up would almost require it under Jimmy Johnson’s chart. If anyone made a “can’t refuse” offer, I would think it would use future picks instead of all in one year.
“I’ve never seen anything like him” .. I haven’t either. Go get him Hawks.
“John Schneider was supposedly prepared to be aggressive to trade prime Russell Wilson for a chance to draft Josh Allen, plus he was reportedly prepared to draft Patrick Mahomes to usurp Wilson. We know he’s willing to be bold at the position.”
This I always find fascinating and I think one of the reasons why John has more control/say in decisions now. Pete has got to be kicking himself silly for not doing either of those moves, considering how Allen and Mahomes have turned out, and them trading Russ anyway. I also think Adams was a Pete move, which has also got to sting quite a bit. I love Pete the coach, but I think John just makes better long term decisions.
*please keep in mind this is pure speculation
Switch josh allen and mahomes for Wilson but still draft everyone else….
Doubt either would have done better.
Gonna disagree there. We saw with Geno what even an average quarterback can do (69.8 completion%, 5.2 td%, 1.9 int%, 7.5 y/a) in this system when they stay on schedule and play from the pocket, something Wilson always struggled with. By comparison, Wilson’s average: 64.5 completion%, 5.9%, 1.9%, 7.8 y/a. Wilson certainly had the it factor Geno doesn’t, but Mahomes and Allen are complete packages, as in they can play from the pocket and have the it factor.
Mahomes is king shit. I hope he never gets weird like Rodgers and is tge beware dynasty in the league.
With the utmost respect for how people see Josh Allen, first five years in the league compared to the former qbs first five years)
2566 attempts. So almost 300 more than Wilson.
18,397 yards. Only 200 more yards on 300 more attempts.
62.5% completion ( 63.1%….the single lowest season of Wilson, the average is higher)
138 tds ( 127 for wilson) but…60 ints (45 for #3)
So I’d agree mahomes may have been system transcendent. Josh allen with his stats but the team Seattle fielded since he’s been in the league? Again I think it’s not likely we would have done better. Since Wilson played better in that period of time and we still didn’t do anything.
On geno again hope he balls out. But I’m going to need to see more than one season to compare him to anyone.
As always with “sources”, there’s a lot to take with several grains of salt, but I did find these comments on Richardson interesting:
https://archive.md/qgnLK#selection-865.0-881.132
Richardson has all the physical tools to be a top QB but that just hasn’t showed up on game day. He flashes greatness but lacks consistency and his 53.8% completion % in his only season as a starter to me is too much of a risk in the top 5. Between AR15 and Levis the floor is higher on Levis and the ceilings are very close to the same IMO. To me the only QB worth a top 5 selection is CJ Stroud, Young’s biggest drawback is not his height but his build. He is thin and I just don’t know if he can take the beating of a 17 game season.
He’s played one season of college football
He played for a crap team in the SEC
People wouldn’t have taken Mahomes & Allen for similar complaints
🤷♂️
If you’re waiting for the next Burrow you’ll be waiting a while. Development is the name of the game
Mahomes’s final year of college he threw for 65% completion % with 40TD’s and 10INT. And he showed progress each year. You just don’t have that kind of data with Richardson, it is just a huge gamble. Yes development is HUGE in the NFL but AK15 in one season hasn’t shown that kind of development is even possible. He’s a lottery ticket.
Josh Allen’s college stats were not impressive but how many other QB’s coming out of college with his #’s have become top end NFL QB’s? He’s a unicorn and a something that may come around once a generation.
So because Richardson didn’t play in the BIG-12, in a wide-open spread offense known for mass production, that’s it? He’s not going to make it?
Here’s what was being said about Mahomes pre-draft:
None of those.
It’s because Richardson while having all the physical tools to be a great QB has no data that says he will be a great QB.
Even against mediocre opponents within and outside the SEC.
40% completion %, 2INT 0 TD’s vs a bad Kentucky team.
57% Comp % 1 TD, 1INT vs a mediocre MIZZOU team.
Uninspiring games vs USF, FSU, and South Carolina.
Yeah, that mediocre Mizzou team that nearly beat Georgia.
Uninspiring vs South Carolina, Florida State 😂
Tell me you didn’t watch those games without telling me
If you want to play the stats game you should also share the many examples of players who had a high college completion % and completely sucked in the pros. Justin Fields threw 70% his junior year, but is struggling to hit 60% as a pro and threw more picks in his first NFL season than his entire college career. Zach Wilson threw 75% his junior year but only 55% through 2 NFL seasons. Baker Mayfield threw 70% his junior and senior years and is only a 60% passer in his pro career.
Statistics are far from the only thing that matters when you’re talking about a QB prospect. More than any other position their performance in college is dictated by their system and surrounding talent. Justin Fields could light it up throwing to multiple first round picks in a friendly offensive system, but in the pros he now looks more likely to have his pass hit the turf than his receiver’s hands.
Interesting.
I wonder if fans know about a qb named Geno Smith. Throwing almost 73% in his final year in college and in the heisnan hunt.
Gets to the pros and throws sub 60% and if he never signs with Seattle probably never gets the feel good story.
He started one year on a bad team. If you want to see his talent, look at their bowl game where they got absolutely smoked when he didn’t play. That tells me that he basically carried that team to the post season. And you have to look at his stats from the beginning to the end. Rob can correct me if I am wrong, but his last six games he threw 12 TDs and 2 INTs against SEC competition. That’s pretty good.
I offer my opinion with the highest respect. After all, that’s all we have to offer — our opinions. But I don’t think NFL GMs run their organizations based on what other GMs do with their organizations.
Ossenfort’s success or failure as the Cardinals GM will depend on how successful the Cardinals are, not on how successful any other team is, regardless of whom they draft, when, and under what circumstances.
If Ossenfort has the Cards playing competitively, in the hunt for the Division title, in the post season, he’ll continue to be Arizona’s GM. It won’t matter what’s Seattle’s doing, even if they’re winning Super Bowls, even with the pick that Ossenfort gave them.
Conversely, if Ossenfort doesn’t have any more success than his predecessor, it won’t matter if Richardson is a total bust. He’s won’t keep his job.
I think Ossenfort and Gannon will have their board, and they won’t be adverse to adding draft capital as long as they can get the top player on it, regardless of who’s trading with them and for whom.
I think they will be adverse to adding capital if it costs them their top player. To the extent there is conflict between those competing interests, I think they’ll either stick where they are or make the the trade that still allows them to take their top player.
Which brings me to this…
I get that you may be stating this from Ossenfort’s perspective. After all, he doesn’t know who Carroll and Schneider might want to move up for. Or does he?
Taking it on it’s face, it’s not logical that this is what Seattle would do. They’ve never traded up in R1 under JS/PC. They’ve traded back into the end of R1, but never up within the round.
Moreover, as fine an overall prospect as Anderson is, haven’t we all agreed he’s not a generational player? Haven’t we agreed he’s not a player worthy of being traded up for, let alone by a team that’s never traded up for a player in this range? Maybe Ossenfort rates him that highly and so he would be seriously worried Seattle might be targeting Anderson. Or maybe he just rates Anderson as the top defensive prospect in this draft, and not a generational talent. I mean, the kid won’t even test pre draft. That’s not what generational players do.
I don’t mean to criticize anyone’s opinion on this. None of us know how this will play out. But we do have precedent to look to. And we have what’s being stated clearly in public by Carroll and Schneider.
And we have this:
I agree completely. In fact, I’ve been saying this for months, one of the first on the blog if not the first.
I believe Schneider and Carroll agree with it. And they’re close enough to get him. I don’t see them letting this opportunity slip away.
To piggyback on this, most of the media have now come around on the Seahawks QB tour not being a smokescreen, but legitimate interest in them. If Ossenfort feels the same way, he’d probably feel that Seattle wanting to move up would be for a QB and not Anderson. Anderson is definitely the best defensive player in the draft and we know Seattle wants to improve their defense, but at face value it makes much more sense to give up extra draft capital to move up to select a QB, not a great-but-not-generational defender.
I would say this in response to the thoughts that Arizona won’t trade with Seattle. The GM of Arizona has one job, to put together the best team he possibly can. If trading with your rival makes you better you do it. In AZ case, they could drop back 2 spots add picks that turn into other players that can help them. I do think they’ll ask more of SEA, but at the end of the day, his only job is to make Arizona better.
I fully agree with the take on Richardson – Young is great but his frame scares me, Stroud has great touch but he only really shined in a couple of games (albeit, the biggest stages) and his personality is a bit off IMO, Levis is a physical monster and he is a tested leader, performing with almost no support…but his accuracy is a bit concerning. Richardson has issues as well, and he is clearly a gamble…but what a gamble! if it pays off, we would get a MAhomes/Allen type of player, and we can sit him for 1-2 years without rushing him, while continuing to develop the talent around him. Hopefully we can come out of the draft with him.
Exactly this.
The reward far outweighs the risk
Rob if you trade up to #3 and it’s between Levis and Richardson, is Richardson the only play? Personally I’ve liked Levis more but I think the potential of Richardson may entice the front office so much and it’s a move that you could probably sell to the fan base more after his pro day, not that they care but the potential meltdown of trading up to pick Levis over Richardson will be hysterical at first but I could see that outrage growing tiresome really quickly and I don’t see the same level of potential outrage if you pick Richardson.
I think it could be either. Levis is very ‘John’
This morning, Brock Huard said that the loosey goosey “two-thirds speed” of Richardson’s pro day rubbed him the wrong way, and he suggested that plenty of NFL personnel people will feel likewise.
I’m a big Richardson proponent, but I have to admit that I didn’t care for his pro day strategy, either. Loose is good, but that was unhinged at times. In my view, it was too casual and backyardy. Some of those rollout throws looked outright sloppy to my untrained eye, especially when he rolled to his left (wtf was that?). I mean, bad footwork is one thing, but that… Sheesh.
If the purpose of Richardson’s approach was to demonstrate raw goods and coachability under an expectation of being redshirted, then the disheveled nature of the whole operation doesn’t bother me too much. I’m still bullish on the player at #3–5 overall; it’s just…that was pretty jarring.
I am more and more convinced that Seattle is happy to sit at #5 and take whichever QB falls or Anderson. Arizona will hold out for a lopsided deal from us, probably the 5 and 20. If Richardson’s there, I’d do it. Not sure JS would.
No one knows what surprise trades or picks could happen (Houston takes Anderson or trades down? Falcons or Raidwers trade into #3?) that could change things, but I expect Richardson doesn’t make it to #5, and there’s an outside chance he goes #1 if Tepper is salivating over his ceiling.
With all the negative pub on Levis over the past week, it seems more and more likely that he’s the QB there at #5. I believe Pete and John have already made their decision on him one way or the other. Wish I knew what it was.
Richardson alone for round 1 vs. standing pat and coming out with Levis and either Ade, Ade, Keion White, Mazi Smith, Kancey…? Tough call for me. Just really enjoying the crazy run up to this draft.
I know it’s not your main point, but I’m going to push back against “all the negative pub on Levis”
That was ONE guy, who previously has been proven to be unreliable/incorrect.
Rob knows his name I don’t recall
I think Levis to Indy is as safe a call as Stroud to Carolina
Chad Forbes
And saying he’s merely unreliable is a massive compliment to him
Forbes was the nastiest one, for sure. But Chris Simms slagged him, Seaside Joe, a bunch of randos in the Twitterverse about the bodybuilding pics. A bunch of blowhards seem to be picking up on him as a workout warrior who will suck on the field.
I don’t buy any of it – and saw a recent Barstool article wondering if Levis may be intentionally fucking with teams he doesn’t want to go to during interviews. Unlikely, but that would be hilarious.
Yeah he did catch some flack for that stuff so fair enough. But that’s locker room crap that a FO won’t pay attention to
All we can do is offer food for thought.
Just as a point, I could see us offering next year’s #1 and AZ wanting it. They should be about as bad as this last year, so they would then have the ammo to go get a quarterback. I think one more year of Kyler being Kyler might make them want to be proactive.
I don’t know his contract ramifications, when they can get out from his contract. That would be a Curtis question. They just need a lot of work and Anderson and two 1st round picks next year looks really good.
They are locked into Murray for at least 2023 and 2024.
JS gave up two 1sts for a safety then overpaid him, if he sees one of these guys as a star franchise QB, I don’t see how they can’t do whatever it takes to get him. The bigger question is, is Houston or AZ willing to trade down? That might be the crux of the matter.
Oh man, Rob, I read the whole thing hoping you wouldn’t bring up the roof, but then you brought up the roof. Dude threw the ball into the ceiling. We’ve all been in gym class and done that. Twitter etc was abuzz with “OMG he hit the roof, instant HOFer” takes and highlights yesterday for what was the least impressive thing he did.
Otherwise, another great, detailed summary, highlighting all the actually important things . Truly appreciate the hard work!
“We’ve all been in gym class and done that.”
I agree it’s not particularly impressive, but I could only do it throwing it 90 degrees straight up. 🙂
Also my gym class roof was noticeably lower than a college stadium football training facility…
If you’re Arizona, and you’re willing to trade within your division, what would prefer from Seattle to move from 3 down to 5?
The 37th in 2023 pick or their 2024 R1 pick?
For reference, the 3rd pick is valued at 2200 points. The 5th pick is 1700 points. That’s a 500 point differential.
The 37th pick is valued at 530 points.
I could see them holding out for 5 and 20 from us. If only to have to have the PR fallback that it was so incredibly lopsided on the Jimmy J chart that no GM could turn that down.
I wouldn’t go 5 and 20 for their 3. Rather stay put and get whatever QB falls at 5, or Anderson if Arizona trades with someone else.
100%. I just dont see them trading up as they are a team that likes there draft ammo. I hear all the rumblings as well but just dont see it happening and hope it doesnt.
I’d go 5 and 20.
Still a first. Still the two seconds.
If you can give two firsts and a third to a safety ID take the iron price today and go into next year with regular picks, cash, and a qbotf.
It’s high. But not as egregious as other trades for way less important positions.
By now I think even Pete would admit to the Adams deal being a mistake. Don’t repeat them. You will get a very good player at 5 no matter what, and another one at 20. If they will be say Levis and McDonald or Anderson and Meyer, I’ll call it a good draft. This isn’t the only year we can draft a QB.
FWIW as much as I like GoT, the metaphor of paying the iron price doesn’t really fit IMO, you’re not winning anything through battle, still giving away capital. But I seem to be in a very small minority on this one.
Jokes aside. Yeah they can draft qb every year. But they haven’t.
And frankly I’m pretty uninterested in the geno/wilson 6,7, plus years of the same exact team every year. Check out our qb!! How good would he be I’d we ever could field a team that top ten in anything but their own production!! Next year boys! That’ll be it.
I’d just like to hang my hat on something special for a change.
I’d have traded 5 and 20 and maybe a second round pick for 1. Picking third QB is different.
Listen it’s not my favorite trade.
But the best comparison I can come up with is the bills gave up around a 1000 pts to move up from 12 to 7.
Instead of framing it like pick #20.
Try this:
Picks 3, 37, 52, etc, etc. Looks good to me. And realistically it would most likely not cost that 20. And with the twenty as I’ve long guessed it would be to get to Houston.
I agree. It’s taking the term out of context, like it’s a transaction: give up this to get this, instead of I win so I also get to take all of this.
For me it comes down to having to wait too long until House of the Dragon comes back on, I’m taking everything that I can at the moment!
What’s dead may never die.
GoT vernacular….
Me with generational talent….
We all have our pet peeves.
What are they holding out for? What’s their next best offer?
The ace in our sleeve is the 5th pick. And the 5th pick means Will Anderson.
You don’t get that with anyone else. And I don’t think Arizona misses out on Anderson.
IMO no trade with Seattle (or Indy, or both), no trade for Arizona period.
Kurt Warner does an excellent job breaking down strengths and weaknesses of QB’s available in this draft. Here’s his take on Anthony Richardson:
Areas of Strength: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0YdOYzSKEoE
Areas for Improvement: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4qK6A-f0jA
Kurt’s take, in a nutshell, is that while AR is athletic, with a big arm, and pretty good down-field accuracy, he needs more experience playing QB to become good (e.g. how he uses his eyes, how he needs to become more comfortable in his technique when throwing easy checkdowns/layups, etc.) Overall, a pretty positive review confirming what Rob has been stating that AR is a project guy with potential and physical capability to become great if he is able to overcome his weaknesses.
Thanks for that – those are pretty good. I watched his Levis breakdown too. Sums it up well – Levis has all the things you can’t coach: size, build, toughness, rocket arm. Where he lacks: eyes and footwork, reading the D, ball placement. All of which are coachable.
So the question becomes – does he have the growth mindset needed to continue to develop his game? If so, he’s got the golden boy arm and body that Young and Stroud can’t be coached up to match.
I think he’s a better fit out of the gate for Indy’s offense and taking the field week one, but I don’t know that they will be able to pass on Richardson’s huge ceiling. If we jump ahead of them to #3 to get AR, their decision is an easy one.
Maybe Irsay will remember how bad a miss his last draft man-crush named Richardson was (Trent) and they’ll go with Levis as the safer pick and let Seattle take the big-money scratch ticket.
I will say that all this Richardson talk is making me not want any QB but him lol. I was kinda hoping he would at least struggle through some part of the draft process to leave the door open to nabbing him at 5 but he had to go and light up the last 2 months like a damn superstar.
Rob-
Superb work as always. Your points about Richardson kind of “freewheeling” it at his pro day are we’ll take. Whereas Levis was scripted and organized with a pace, it felt like AR had zero plan. Like he didn’t understand the magnitude of the situation.
It honestly makes me wonder…Is he taking this seriously enough?
I mean when everyone in the world knows you need to sit for a year or more because of where your development is at, why not hire a QB coach/pro day expert like Palmer to show teams you want to learn and are willing to do the work.
If we’re going to criticize Jalen Carter for knowing his conditioning is an issue and not addressing it, then I think it’s fair to shine that same spotlight on Richardson. I mean why is he developmentally behind all the other QBs in this class? Not like he wasn’t at a major college program.
Because if this guy was even close to being ready to play he’d be the #1 overall pick easy.
Just saying…He may work out, but let’s not fall in love with potential and ignore the reasons he’s so far from it right now. Those might be serious reasons that will make him bust long term.
I have absolutely no idea how or why you’ve connected Richardson’s loose and free pro-day… to Jalen Carter’s issues
That isn’t a comparison in the slightest and your comment is in danger of falling down a rabbit hole
You can compare Richardson’s pro day with the other three qb. But Carter’s situation is completely different. Carter didnt do the combine. Richardson did. And he had the best 40 time and vertical jump ever for a qb. Carter did his pro day, was 9 pounds heavier and had a tightness in hamstring. Richardson threw the ball effortlessly.
One was in the best shape of his life, the other was not.
The suggestion here is that because Richardson’s pro-day was a bit more loose, fun and carried less structure, that suddenly he deserves the same scrutiny as a player with maturity, conditioning and legal concerns.
That… is a bit of a stretch.
“If we’re going to criticize Jalen Carter for knowing his conditioning is an issue and not addressing it, then I think it’s fair to shine that same spotlight on Richardson.” –Matt
I don’t see any reference to Jalen Carter’s legal concerns in Matt’s comment, only to Carter’s unwillingness/inability to address his number-one area for improvement, which in his case is conditioning. I’m reading Matt’s comment as, ‘Is Anthony Richardson similarly unwilling/unable to address his number-one area for improvement (mechanics)?’
It’s really a question about the two players’ desire/commitment: Is there a comparison?
Personally, I’m far more convinced of Richardson’s commitment than Carter’s, but for outsiders (like me) with only scant snippets of information on which to base their speculations, the above question is a reasonable one to pose. I mean, when I combine Richardson’s insouciant pro day vibe with his dubiously progressing mechanics, I can’t help but wonder if he subconsciously thinks his physical superiority will be enough in the NFL. To be sure, he’s saying all the right things about wanting to emulate the great pocket passers, but does he believe that?
I’m still on Team Richardson, and would still support a trade up to get him, but I’m glad Matt made that comment. I want to be sure that there is no comparison between Richardson’s commitment and Carter’s, and right now I’m not sure.
Why are we talking about this?
Maybe because they didn’t watch Richardson’s pro day? He was relaxed and having fun, not disinterested or laissez faire in the least.
IMO Richardson knew the job he’s applying for and tailored his workout to match that.
He’s not applying to be some team’s starting QB next year, like Stroud, Young and Levis all are. He’s applying to be some team’s QB of the future, meaning not starting for at least a year. Maybe two depending on the QB he learns behind.
In other words, there was no need for him to go out there and have the kind of clinical workout that Levis did, running play sets and such. There was no need to show off his finesse and touch at all levels like Stroud. And no need to approach it like a chore like Young.
All he had to do was show off his physical attributes, which you’ve noted are unprecedented at that position. Let his team of the future see what he can be, given the proper opportunity.
I’ve paid keen attention to Richardson this season and I’ve not heard a word of concern about his character. Nothing bad about his commitment to football. Nothing bad about his leadership qualities.
I’m not knocking Malanch or Matt. But maybe neither watched Richardson’s pro day. And maybe they’re overthinking this one.
“Why are we talking about this?”
About what, Anthony Richardson’s peculiar pro day strategy? Not worthy of discussion, is it? Okay.
“Maybe neither watched Richardson’s pro day.”
Incorrect, sir.
“Maybe they’re overthinking this one.”
No more or less than anyone else.
It wasn’t remotely peculiar
And people are trying to compare a loose and free pro-day… to Jalen Carter
FFS
Hey Melanch,
Thank you for this awesome post. You got what I was trying to say and added in a layer of nuance which is always appreciated.
I just want to discuss any player that the Seahawks are considering in great detail. Not sure why that’s a problem for anyone.
Rob-
If you don’t see or agree with a Carter comparison simply in terms of not addressing a weakness, cool. Strike that and let’s start from scratch. My questions are:
1) Why is Richardson so far behind in his football development (especially in comparison to almost every QB in this draft) that everyone knows that he needs to be an NFL backup for at least a year?
2) What proof do we have that Richardson is a hard worker and will put in the kind of work needed in the NFL to come close to reaching his potential (which is a SB winning QB)?
I’m asking these questions being generally curious. I have no angle other than I want the Seahawks to draft the best player possible. Over the years too many teams didn’t ask the right questions and wound up using a top 10 pick on QBs like Akili Smith, Cade McNown, Ryan Leaf, Mitch Trubisky, and Jamarcus Russell (who had all the raw talent in the world and yet wound up the biggest bust in NFL history).
These questions shouldn’t bother anyone. If AR is truly an All-Pro QB in waiting then there’s no harm in questioning everything about him. However if AR is a bust in waiting…Then there’s a lot of danger in not fleshing out everything about him.
Fair questions.
A lot of people seem very certain about Richardson’s future success but traits don’t guarantee anything. I’m not convinced he will be chosen in the top 5 despite the hype (remember Malik Willis?)
In my opinion, Stroud and Hooker are the best QBs available. I think the Hawks will draft the latter in the first round and grab the best defensive player with their first pick.
Anthony Richardson isn’t anything like Malik Willis
Not even close
As for Hooker being QB2 — you might change your mind if he wasn’t playing in that wide open Tennessee offense. Basketball on a football field.
Not saying Richardson and Willis are the same. I was pointing to the hype – Willis was going to be chosen in the top ten/Rd1 according to many pundits. I think he ended up going in Round 3?
Similarly, AR wasn’t assumed to go in the top 5 after the season ended and after the combine the hype began and now many people think he will go in the top 5.
We will soon find out where teams really value him. That said, the look on Pete’s face in the AR quarterback selfie does speak volumes. He may be the guy.
Lot of people are high on Hooker. I think he looks great. I’m not convinced we should give all of the credit to the scheme he played in. That does not account for the accurate throws or the way he successfully scrambles out of trouble and makes plays.
This isn’t true Dave
I mocked Richardson #1 overall in November
Willis was never mocked that early, not until after his pro-day. And it was bullshit.
They’ve never been similar in terms of stock
As for Hooker — everything is wide open. Hard not to be accurate when you never face a tight window. Basketball on grass.
1. He isn’t. He’s just had one year of starting experience and could do with time and development to reach his potential. I would argue all young, rookie QB’s require that anyway.
2. Plenty of people have spoken glowingly about Richardson’s character, attitude, approach and leadership. There hasn’t been a single negative word uttered about this.
Richardson is only 20 years old. Where he’ll be developmentally in 3 years time is where Levis is today.
I do share the opinion that I wish AR’s pro day had a bit more structure and seriousness to it. I only saw the mashup on Youtube, so it’s hard to tell, but it seemed sloppy and like he was just playing catch. Then I read Rob’s account -who watched the whole thing – and it sounds like my concerns might be exaggerated.
Yes, Florida is a big program in the SEC but it’s no Ohio State or Alabama. I’ve been watching JT O’Sullivan’s breakdowns on Richardson and he’s constantly questioning the scheme/play-calling, which kind of calls into question coaching on the offensive side in general. Richardson certainly needs to work on his mechanics and craft, but I don’t think that just because he went to Florida means he had the proper coaches to help him develop.
I am sure Richardson has a team/agents that recommends how his pro day should proceed. He did not go into his pro day blindly, without any prep.
On the other hand, i can bet Carter’s agent/team did not tell him to go to his pro day heavier. And have his conditioning be so bad, he couldnt complete it.
Pro days are like a open book exam, IMO. Carter failed. While Richardson wowed many teams/scouts with his athleticism.
Florida hasn’t had a quarterbacks coach in three years. That probably goes a long way to explaining things.
I don’t understand this Seattle smokescreen talk. Seattle has been pretty clear about their intentions. In fact, they don’t have to say another word till the combine because this story has already taken on a life of it’s own. The media is going to continually feed it. Then when Seattle picks a QB at 5 they will have a new story about how Seattle quietly slip in and stoked a QB.
Basically it works like this:
Q — Do I like this news?
Yes — Look at this everyone!
No — THIS IS A SMOKESCREEN!
The end.
The smokescreen stuff is so far beyond delusional at this point. People have somehow convinced themselves that we are pretending to like the QBs to increase the value of… our own pick… and that for some reason teams will pay us a premium for our pick because they think we actually want a QB, even though every last shred of logic would say if we’re picking up the phone to hear a trade offer, we aren’t actually that interested in a QB. It makes my head hurt to the point where i practically get a nervous twitch every time I see the word “smokescreen”.
Personally I really hope they’re being genuine and are gearing up for a QB. That’s what I want. But if they’re set with Geno and want to help nudge someone towards trading to #3 (for someone like Anderson to fall), they would:
1. Sign Geno to a reasonable extension, have Lock return.
2. Tell the world how much they’re all-in on QBs.
3. Leak info that they’re thinking about moving to #3 for a QB (this actually helps AZ make a trade too).
So while you can pretend the smokescreen theory is some ridiculous notion, it’s a little hair-brained to assume there’s nothing to it because they are literally reading from the textbook. I haven’t actually seen valid counterpoint to the contrary, only “I really want them to take a QB, so this is ridiculous”. Your best argument is that a GM and coach who have zero incentive to reveal their hand are actually just light-hearted and careless. With a multi-billion dollar franchise. Sure. The reality is only a handful of people have any real idea if what they’re broadcasting is genuine, and none of them frequent this site.
There is a scenario that can be concocted amongst GM’s where everyone gets what they want, making assumptions on who the favoured picks for the top 5 are.
Perhaps we can assume this; Carolina will take CJ Stroud, Houston likes Bryce Young, Arizona Will Anderson, Indy Will Levis or Richardson, Seahawks Will Levis or Richardson.
We can assume the Colts will be happy with either Levis or Richardson, whilst retaining their draft capital, otherwise they’d be the obvious candidate to trade up with Arizona to get the specific QB they’d prefer.
• Houston trade with Seattle, taking the #38 pick and a 2024 rd 5 pick for the #2 pick overall.
• Houston then trade up with Arizona, giving them the #66 pick and #161 pick this year for the #3 pick overall.
Seattle would then pick Anthony Richardson at #2
Houston would STILL pick Bryce Young at #3 and have an extra 2nd round pick from Seattle.
Arizona would STILL pick Will Anderson at #5 and have two extra picks in this years draft including a high 3rd rounder, but perhaps most importantly they haven’t gifted Seattle a QB for the future, as the narrative would be that it was Houston who made the trade.
Here’s how I see Arizona’s perspective:
Will Anderson or bust (bust being a boatload of picks — as much as Chicago got from Carolina)
I don’t see the boatload of picks coming from Atlanta or Vegas. Maybe they do and surprise the hell out of everyone. But I don’t see it.
So it’s Will Anderson, or Will Anderson and some extra draft capital. Again, sorry no boatload of picks coming for that 3rd pick, and probably nobody’s overpaying at all because it’s either Seattle or Indy.
Indy doesn’t have much to trade up with. For them it’s either 35 (too much to move up one spot) or 79 (might not be enough for Arizona). I suppose they could give Arizona their 2024 R2 pick. Or some combination of 79 and other later Day 3 picks.
And even if Indy do trade with Arizona, Seattle is still in prime position to trade up one spot and for less cost. Or let Arizona take Anderson and simply take Richardson, whom I’m sure would be the QB to fall in this scenario.
I guess what I’m trying to say is I think Seattle are in the driver’s seat on being able to put themselves in a position to take the player I believe they’re most interested in
One thing to remember also:
I would hope AR would get some special packages put in for him and hopefully goal line duties inside the 5 (that would make us so much more dangerous inside the 5)! That would lead to some playing time early and he would gain valuable experience and help his team in year one – a win-win!
I hope it happens – go up to 3 to make sure you get him!
Go Hawks!
Don’t see that happening. If he’s drafted, I imagine he is legit taking a redshirt season. You may see him during preseason, but I wouldn’t expect to see him play at all during the regular season. There’s no reason to put him in for gimmick plays.
Rob said something in the livestream yesterday that in combination with something said on NFL live today had me thinking something. Rob, mentioned Richardson might not even be a starter u see Pete Carroll he could be their for the next HC. Then on NFL Live Mina Kimes was saying a power spread scheme like the Eagles run is the perfect fit for Richardson.
If Carroll were to retire and Richardson was on the roster with Walker at running back, offensive minded candidates would be very high on coming to Seattle and creating an offense around Richardson.
Great point. Who do you want as the next coach?
My ideal next head coach would probably be the Lions OC Ben Johnson. Love their creative play calling and their aggressiveness. I think Ken Dorsey would also be a good candidate for a head coach.
For how early it is to he having this conversation I like those names ok.
The most valuable asset in professional sports is a starting quarterback on a rookie contract. The opportunity to get this franchise into that position should outweigh any thoughts of being fine with sitting at 5 and hoping maybe your guys drops and then taking Anderson if all else fails. Anderson may be really good, I have concerns, but that doesn’t come close to the value offered by one of the QBs.
I suggested that the Seahawks should try and move up to 1/1 to get their choice and was bummed that the Bears traded so quickly. Who knows what the Cardinals are going to do, but if they’re willing to trade, you’ve got to be in that conversation.
If Pete wants to contend for a Super Bowl at 75, it ain’t likely to be with Geno.
Also, things like, “with respect tubesteak,” is one of the reasons this community is such a delightful melange of insight and whatnot.
Clearly there is something going on here. This could go either way. Smoke screen or is their real interest in moving up? I tend to believe that there is real interest in moving up to get Richardson. No doubt John Schneider/Pete Carroll were WOWED by Richardson’s pro day. Don’t think the Hawks would move up to take Will Levis. As Mike Salk mentioned Richardson is five years younger than Will Levis.
BTW: There is still the possibility that Carolina/Houston could take Richardson. Or maybe a desperate team trades up to the number three spot. That could throw a monkey wrench into everything.
Stay tune. The NFL draft is in 27 days.
Everything depends on if Arizona wants Anderson. If yes we are in good shape.
This would be a live trade, one needs to see HOU *not take AR for the trade to happen.
AZ insisting on going out of the division basically gives Anderson to Seattle.
Deciding to suck-it-up and trade in the division keeps Anderson for themselves, and they pick up I am assuming #20 “for free”.
But I don’t see this happening for Levis or Young, so it is an on-the-clock trade. Youza.
Oooof, I don’t usually engage in Twitter talk, but Rob’s twitter post on trading up drew me in. I am very hesitant to trade up. The team, as we have discussed here, and Chaz’s fantastic work laid out, has so little cap left. We NEED those picks to fill the roster out. You can’t do it without them unless you mortgage cap future. The Twat takes on AR are so terrible. I love him, am on record saying I want him at 5. I just don’t want to trade more picks to get him. This is probably1) the risk, it’s no sure thing. He need to play, and won’t play sitting behind Geno, and isn’t ready to play. A catch 22. If he doesn’t play and you trade a bunch, your roster will really suffer because man we need young cheap guys to fix this roster with this cap.
Anyways love debating these things with Rob and sensible people, hate it on Twitter. Still for AR or WA at 5.
They still have 10 picks this year. Use them to get what you want. Don’t let it all fall to you. You go get what you want. They need to not play scared in the draft, it’s been killing then for years.
Okay SDB, you have me really wanting AR(or Stroud)… not knowing how badly Houston wants a qb this year. So, would this be a great trade (draft points in parentheses): #5 (1700)+ D. Taylor, assigning him a 2nd round (#33) value of (580) + # 53(380), this equals 2660 points for #2 (2600) ???
I feel that would be a steal for us and it would cost significantly more than that to move up to #2. But I could be wrong. As you say, the points at least add up.
https://www.si.com/nfl/seahawks/news/seattle-seahawks-anthony-richardson-interest-sources-draft-smokescreen-pete-carroll-rumor
As they say, where there’s smoke….there’s also screens. People say that right?
Well I always use a screen so yeah, makes sense. Those little hot pieces of um……., “vegetative matter” burn the tongue/roof of the mouth.
Whoa. Okay then.
That definitely caught me by surprise. Do not understand this move at all.
Puts about $2m back on their cap.
Still, it’s not like they need it until after the draft.
For paying the bills, sure.
Maybe it’s for acquiring a DT now.
Lol that’s what I just put on Twitter a few minutes ago.
Now that I would understand.
I wonder if Neal was offended by Love’s contract and demanded the freedom. This doesn’t make sense from Seattle’s perspective.
More likely they feel the FA safety market is cool enough to let him test it and maybe get him back for less than the $2.6m he would’ve earned on the tender
And if he gets away, maybe they feel there’s a solution in the draft
Peacock won’t likely be healthy to start the season and then will get hurt soon after returning so I don’t like the options for the 3 safety sets now.
Good safety draft.. so I think this means they’re done the sums and have decided to save money here, possibly draft someone in R3-4 and use that cap space either for Wagner or A.N. Other.
They have Love’s versatility in their back pocket and maybe they really like Joey Blount too. They have talked very positively about him and gave him a bunch of ST snaps.
Antonio Johnson, Sydney Brown, JL Skinner, Jammie Robinson, Jordan Battle, Ji’Ayir Brown…
A lot of nice options that could be available in that range. This is a fun safety class.
This means Adams will stay. Pete just talked about Adams few days ago
SIGH
Does this now mean Adams cost the Seahawks 1st, 1st, 3rd, AND Ryan Neal?
One thing burning in my mind from the Pro Day is what we didn’t see. I was picturing Richardson ripping off 40 & 80 yard runs, and also keeping those defenders in a bind on the edge whether to close & (attempt to) tackle him or cover. His dual threat ability gives us what the Bills or Eagles have on offense and I’m very excited about that – except Richardson runs more like Barry Sanders than Jalen Hurts 😃.
Seattle sends picks 5 and 37 to Arizona for pick 3. Seattle takes Richardson, Arizona takes Anderson and an early 2nd. Who says no?
Based on Pauline’s comment. “The cost to move up won’t be much for the Seahawks.”
The #5 & #37 is the trade I figured made sense.
Equal value plus they likely still get Anderson.
Yes, but there is no assurance that Carolina or Texas won’t take Richardson. That would be a tough pill to swallow if we moved up to 3 and he was gone.
If they like Stroud and Young just as much, it won’t be
How about we trade Darrell Taylor and a conditional 2024 pick to Arizona for #3?
The conditional pick is a R3 pick if Taylor makes certain game/performance quotas, or a R1 pick if he misses them.
Would you do it?
Would Arizona?
If I’m AZ I’d prefer pick #37
Me? No because losing Taylor means you kinda need Will Anderson imo.
If AR last til five I take him, but I’m not trading assets that contribute this year.
Maybe A’Shawn Robinson’s price has come dodo to last years injury.
Possibly the Neal money plus incentives to get him inked?
I thought he signed somewhere?
Hope so !!
It is possible that Seahawks are encouraging publicly Colts to trade up to #3 rather than someone else, this way Colts, Cardinals and Seahawks gets pick of their choice.
Well, if the Cardinals and Colts stay at #3 and #4 they pick the same players right? So not sure why they would.
And Arizona could always trade down twice.
I think the Seahawks are legitimately thinking #3 is better than #5 because it guarantees they get the non Stroud/Young player they want. And I don’t mind them being bold at all to go and get their guy, if that’s what they choose.
All this talk about smokescreens…
think it’s just as likely Seattle are trying to communicate clearly who they’ll target if they move up. And it’s not the guy they think Indy prefers, so you know, there’s no need to try and outbid us Jim
So after moving on from Neal my solid math skills tells me we are sitting at $6,045,554 in cap space.
For the moment. For the whole season:
Minus 8,5 for our rookie class
Minus 6-10 for practice squad and reserve
The last report I saw after Wagner signing was Seattle is $746,786 in the red.
That is effective cap space which is something OTC does to count in rookies.
The more and more you learn and hear the more it looks like the Hawks should stick at #5 and take a “falling” Levis who was probably their guy all along- but if Richardson ends up being there instead – great what a fallback position! If all 4 QB’s go- so be it- we take Anderson – the best defensive player in the draft at #5!! Stay put do not give away assets you don’t have to.
It would be best, as long as you like all five. Richardson would be the most fun, but any of the QBs could end up the best player or winning a Superbowl. I think Levis is very serious and has some of the cornball gung ho BS #3 had. How will that sit with the rest of the Seahawks?
Good point. Though at point someone on the jets disliked geno so much they broke his jaw. Now he’s a favorite on the team.
I’m not really buying in on the trade up scenario but if they did would Fant be an option? That would help solve some cap issues as well. Would AZ be interested in 5 and Fant? And maybe a later pick?
No chance that gets it done, they’ll want good picks (or a good pick)
Rob I have been thinking what your thoughts are on Zach Harrison from Ohio State he has impressive wingspan a little bit of athletic freak his numbers weren’t great but he has some upside. It might not be a huge deal but Zach Harrison is only 20 years old.
He’s just so stiff turning the arc
It seems like everyone is just slotting Young in at #2 to Houston.
Is this anything more than pure speculation?
I’d love it if this actually happened… but why wouldn’t The Texans love Levis or Richardson as much as we do?
I think it’s just generally felt that Stroud and Young will be the first two off the board
Maybe this is because they are expected to run Slovik’s version of the Shanahan offense wherein the QB is more of a point-guard, who is efficiently feeding the ball to the playmakers. Bryce Young would be ideal in this type of scheme. Still, Houston is being suspiciously quiet with everyone ‘assuming’ they will simply take whomever is left between Stroud and Young. This is a dangerous assumption, especially if you’re a team hoping to trade-up to #3 in order to select Richardson, specifically. Would not Houston be well-situated to select AR? Wouldn’t they too, be interested in a generational talent with huge upside? Might they also be concerned about Young’s size and durability? Granted, Davis Mills isn’t a great starting QB, but he’s on a rookie contract, has flashed at times, and might be an okay bridge for another year. Case Keenum would make an excellent back-up and potential tutor. Texans are not going to light up the NFL in 2023 with any of their QBs, so they could well-afford to redshirt Richardson for a year until he is better developed for the pro game and they have more pieces around him.
If Richardson last until #3 then I want the Seahawks to pull off the trade, hopefully including players and next year draft capital.
I would love to use the #3 pick to replace #3.
Cha’s post about Ryan neal got me thinking about the cap again. I decided to check out what the avg dead cap was across all teams for 2023, and to my surprise its pretty high, the avg is $20,000,000. Bengals leading the way with only $593,004 dead (and with burrow on a rookie deal sheeesh), however 4!! teams are above 50 mil, with buccs at 75 mil and eagles at 54 mil dead leading the wasted money clubs.
So all to say they are at about league avg with their current dead cap hit, and if they wanted to cut jamal post june 1, that would raise the dead money, but it still wouldn’t be crazy high compared to avg, and it would free up 8 mil they seem to despereately need.
Maybe best case would be to see if Jamal will take a pay cut after they draft a safety in the first 3-4 rounds, since they would then have diggs/love/draft pick they could use as leverage.
I hope you’re right and that they can re-structure Adams, but letting Neal walk tells me (and him) they are still 100% in on this Jamal Adams as a joker experiment. Unless he has some major setback in his rehab, I can’t see them cutting him, and their losses, at any point this year.
I’d type something but I’m too busy throwing my phone against the wall (because I am pretty sure you’re right).
Don’t think they are necessarily letting Neal walk.
If they’ve talked to Neal and are confident he’ll let them match anyway, without the tag. There is no reason to use it. All it does is eat up 2 mil that you can’t really use until the situation resolves itself.
He could sign with a different team in May, and then congrats you got a spare 2mm and nobody to spend it on.
This gives more flexibility.
Brock is acting like such a hater with his QB opinions. He said that Richardson “was only going 2/3 speed and not taking it seriously.” Serious question: Did AR totally blow Brock off during the college season? He talks about AR like he just kicked his dog and spit in his wife’s face. Then again Brock said that Sam Ehlinger was going to be a franchise QB so his opinion carries very little weight.
The more people slagging AR, the better. I wish there were more of them.
Forgot to add – I really like Brock. I’ve met him a couple of times and he’s no dummy. I don’t agree with many of his assessments, but I love his college play by play. Sometimes I watch games just he’s covering them.
But yeah, his QB scouting resume isn’t good.
That’s so weird. Brock was the first guy I remember hearing rave about Russell Wilson, before the Hawks even drafted him. Who knows.
I think Brock is both right and wrong. I think AR was so “relaxed” that he didn’t show great form, and he could have shown better form. He has so much arm talent that he can throw bullets and bombs off a bad base, without weight transfer (so little to no lower body involved)–the anti-Robo QB. On one hand, that ability is great, because in the League you can’t always throw in the clinically correct fashion. On the other hand, when you can, you should, because it helps you be more accurate. Watching Levis’s workout, for example, it was very clear to me the dude was throwing by the book at every opportunity. That’s how Brock was taught, and how he tried to play.
I think AR is going to need more work then Levis in that regard once on an NFL team. But Holy Moly the guy is like the Hope Diamond of QBs on sheer physical talent. He also doesn’t appear to be so full of himself that he can’t be coached, and our new QB guy may be just the right teacher. That dude must have been salivating throughout that little road trip…
There was nothing wrong with his form. He just didn’t mimic a lot of realistic throwing scenarios.
I noted in my review it was a free and loose session but it didn’t make a jot of difference overall. I would’ve preferred a Jordan Palmer-style workout but it doesn’t have to be that way. Bryce Young did the bare minimum, it was low-tempo and quite dull. Nobody mentions that.
Here is Corbin Smith’s article on the Seahawks/Richardson:
https://www.si.com/nfl/seahawks/news/seattle-seahawks-anthony-richardson-interest-sources-draft-smokescreen-pete-carroll-rumor
I think they’re being very direct. No need for subterfuge or misdirection.
Unless Arizona gets an offer too good to refuse — say the Falcons’ or the Raiders’ 2023 R1 + R2 + 2024 R1 — I think it’s almost inevitable they will trade with Seattle.
It may not happen until draft day, maybe not even until Arizona are on the clock at 3. But I feel increasingly certain it will happen.
If they do, then it’s surely for Richardson and I would have no problem with that. Draft day is gonna be fun. If the NFL is smart they’d have cam crews set up in war rooms and prospects and, subject to team review, put together a special that highlights the first round, Hard Knocks style. I think this is gonna be one killer day one draft.
Don’t think Arizona would do that because there is a very real chance we’d swipe Anderson from them instead of taking a QB. Not saying it’s what I’d do but the team could do that. Not sure they’d want to take our word on it.
I don’t buy that as a reason for AZ not to trade down. If we don’t keep our word on that, that damages JS’s reputation league-wide. Dishonesty is a bad policy in any kind of negotiation.
He doesn’t have to tell them who he wants to move up for. They can assume it’s a QB, but that’s on them.
I am not sure if anyone heard that Pat Kirwin had his first mock and pick 20 he had the Seahawks draft John Michael Schmitz he was impressed with him during the senior bowl.in a division with Hargrave and Aaron Donald you need get a center with a little bit of nasty to him.
Well Wypler did a heck of a job vrs Carter, & has a similar demeanor in my opinion. I think I prefer take DL in round one. Alot will depend on if we do trade up or stay at #5.
Agreed. It all depends on who’s there, but if you have your choice of a McDonald, Ade Ade, Keion White, Kancey, Mazi Smith, etc at #20 and you take JMS, you are making a mistake.
Not slagging the player at all and I think the Seahawks do love him, but that is reaching for need again at #20. Take the chance he’s there in the second, and if not, Wypler will be. Buck up that DL with a stud at #20 because odds are we’re going QB with the first pick.
Or if Bijan or Mayer are there that late I wouldn’t blame them for grabbing BPA. JMS can’t be that guy tho.
Robert neglected to mention that in that same draft, Jim Miller picked Robinson for the Seahawks at 5.
Oh and Kirwin (a good find of Pete fwiw), sent Levis to Baltimore at 22.
Just a comment I left here back in September:
https://seahawksdraftblog.com/college-football-open-thread-notes-week-3#comment-642434
I prefer my crow deep fried with a garlic sauce on the side.
The american crow is going to be an endangered species soon.
There’s enough for everyone. Eat up lads.
Adam from the SeaHawkers podcast released a video about why it would be dumb for the Seahawks to take a qb at #5. I’m growing increasingly frustrated with the people that can’t comprehend this. When you ask people in the Geno camp why they don’t want a qb they will usually say “ Genos good enough”. I’m sorry but I don’t want “ good enough”, I want great.
It’s short sighted thinking. Geno is plenty good enough for next year, and if he implodes or gets injured. Lock gets his shot.
But are either of those guys running the show 5 years from now? Fuck no, is my guess.You draft for the future and to set your franchise up to dominate 3-5 years out. Anything less is playing checkers vs. chess. If I was Jody Allen, knowing I am going to be forced to sell the team in the next couple of years, believe you me I would want a potential stud QB either on the field or waiting in the wings when that happens.
Exactly, and having a young stud QB let’s you have the pick of the litter when time comes for a new head coach. It’ll be an attractive destination for a young offensive mind like Ben Johnson or Ken Dorsey.
One of his arguments is you won’t get the full benefit of a rookie QB if you sit him for a couple years. Hardly seems like a reason to pass on a guy who could be special. Take your swing, it’s basically a free pick. Who else are you going to draft?
Adam from the SeaHawkers podcast is one of the most infuriating people in Seahawks coverage. I don’t think I’ve agreed with him on a single thing other than that we like the Seahawks and that 2013 was awesome.
He’s adamantly against anything that isn’t “take as few risks as possible and also recreate the 2013 Seahawks at all costs”
Corbin Smith still taking Carter although after trading down to 10; & passing on Levis. As crazy as it may sound I’d prefer Adetomiwa Adebawore over Carter at 20 if he was there. Ade seems to love the game, Carter not so much.
I can’t believe the Carter thing is still going
I don’t know why anyone would do a video like that
This has been a far less enjoyable draft season than it could’ve been because of people’s total silliness about the QB position
Wrapping my head around this…
You can’t definitively secure Richardson by trading up to 3. Unless you are pretty certain Stroud and Young are going 1-2. I know it LOOKS like that’s how 1-2 will go, but it’s not a certainty.
I wonder … aren’t the Seahawks considering trading up so they can get either Young, Levis OR Richardson? Assuming Stroud goes to the Panthers.
Stroud, Richardson or Anderson to me.
I like Young and Levis but Richardson and Stroud are a cut above. And if they don’t want to go QB Anderson would be a coup.
This is where I am. Richardson and Stroud are the clear cut QB plays IMO.And if either falls to 5, break a goddman leg to run that podium.
But I wouldn’t lose sleep if we went with either Levis or Young at #5, for entirely different reasons. And if we hold all of our draft capital and take the best defnsive player in this draft, who just happens to be perfectly fit for our scheme, I would be elated as well.
I feel like this is one of those situations, rare as it is, that we hold a top 5 pick and can just let the draft come to us. Highly possible some other huge value is sitting there at #20 as well. We’ve been waiting decades for this kind of scenario. Let’s just enjoy it.
Not pre-draft. I don’t think you sign the papers on the deal until the third pick comes around and Richardson is there. I could see Seattle and Arizona ironing out a deal beforehand and then executing it when the third pick comes around.
I think if you wait the price goes up. Might get #3 for #5 & #37 now. If you wait you also give someone else more time to overpay & your out. You have #3 you still have the choice of the remaining 2 QBs or Anderson; if Richardson & Stroud are gone.
If you trade up now you basically have three players you love and want to guarantee one of them
I think we all understand that the price to trade up from #5 to #3 is not tooooo steep, but would any of us be complaining now if Schnieder had made that trade for Josh Allen or Mahomes? The Iron Price is not steep in this position.
A lot of teams have given up more, and sometimes you have to pay that price. If it means going from a 60% chance at one of those QBs to a 100% chance, and you don’t have to sacrifice future 1st rounders like KC and SF did, sign me up.
I’ll preface this saying, it’s been a good free agency. But, this team has no NT, and barely any DL on the roster. Even with all their draft picks it’s going to hard to address that and other holes. They have no cap left. IMO trading picks for a QB that won’t play for 1-2 years is dangerous play.
Hey Rob, great piece. Question: What is it about Levis and Richardson that makes you feel like they’re much better prospects than Trey Lance coming out?
I reread some of your old pieces, and I know accuracy was a big problem for him, but he was a good athlete. However, these two seem to be similar prospects in size, athleticism and potential accuracy problems?
I’d love to get your perspective in a reply or article, because I feel like there’s lot of comparison in this area.
Lance played in an incredibly comfortable environment at North Dakota State. People would point to the run of games he had without an interception. He was basically playing third and fourth tier college football teams, throwing to wide open receivers all the time. He didn’t show any basic understanding of pro-concepts. All he had to do was snap and throw it to the open guy, people like Christian Gonzalez, who could run into wide open areas on the field.
He played only one game in his final season and it was a horror show. Bad reads. Terrible turnovers. Terrible near turnovers. This despite another low-level opponent. I didn’t see anything on tape to get excited about. He wasn’t reading the field. Some of the wide open throws weren’t there and he didn’t anticipate this. He looked like a player used to executing with ease and now the opponent was making life hard for him, it was foreign. He didn’t know how to react.
Then his pro-day. I’ve never seen so many passes hit the floor. He was throwing high and wide of his targets even without any defenders on the field. I think it’s possibly the worst pro-day I’ve watched. To me he just looked like a great athlete.
Levis and Richardson played in the SEC. They also played in the SEC for bad teams. Kentucky had nothing in 2022. No O-line, no weapons. Florida at this point is basically a ground-zero rebuild. Richardson experienced so many drops. Levis’ pass-protection was non existent and he got lit up. They still played in an offense that wasn’t wide-open and had pro-concepts, especially Levis. So you could see them making plays that translate. They were having to throw against NFL defenders in the SEC and make throws you’ll see at the next level. Both players also are capable of the special ‘wow’ moments.
Richardson needs development, time and experience to reach his potential. Levis has technical flaws he knows he has to fix. Both players, however, are on a different level to Lance for me. And my thoughts on Lance were written about extensively before his draft, so I’m not speaking after the event.
My top hope is to have my cake and eat it too. A QB is there at #5 & of course they lead us back to the promised land.
If we have to trade up to get that guy that’s fine. They still have to win a championship for the Seahawks. That part is required!
Appreciate all the work you do, Rob! With all the rumors running fast and furious, I went back to re-listen to your interview with Jim Nagy. I remember when he brought up Dee Eskridge without prompting during your prior interview with him and I noticed he brought up Keion White as someone to really watch. He had said he was playing in the 290’s at GT and moved like someone 260 pounds, then said he is one of the few rushers that doesn’t rely on one pass rush move and get stalmated. He had a great Senior Bowl, has the measurables, but no testing aside from his 40.
Ade Ade has great measurables, character, and some good tape, but I wonder if Keion White is flying under the radar as someone to watch at 20 or 37.
He’s definitely an option — ideal scheme fit, great upside
I’m very much open to trading up to get Richardson, but the price could be steep. Our best reference is from 2018 when the Jets traded up from #6 to #3 with the Colts along with picks #37, #49, and 2019 2nd. That would track very close with the Seahawks trading picks #5, #37, #52, 2024 R2 which is a very steep price. I would feel comfortable with it if Schneider could turn #20 into a late 1st and 3rd or two 2nds or something of that nature.
Tony Pauline said “the cost to move up won’t be much for the Seahawks.”
Too me not much could simply be fair value, with AZ knowing they likely still get Anderson.
#5 & #37 = 2230 points.
#3 = 2200 points
Pauline likely has a better idea than we do on the possible offers out there; so I’ll go with that for now.
Will anyone surprise if Texans take Will Anderson? If that happens we are safe to get 1 out 4 QB, Rob has discussed a lot recently that Texans may take defense with their new coach background.
Wait is killing hence the expectation getting 1 of 4 QB will led to disappointment. Guess what consolation prize will be Will Anderson.
Should we reach an agreement with Cardinals, I wouldn’t close the deal until I know how 1 and 2 went. If the QB you want is gone, makes no sense to trade up.
If Stroud drops the trade value could quickly jump. If they’re going to make the trade they should get their offer in now. It likely only goes up on draft day.
If Ashish were correct you now have the choice between 3 QBs; too me that’s far more valuable.
But then from their perspective why wouldn’t Arizona just wait and see if the value goes up? I see no incentive for them to trade now unless they get the proverbial offer they can’t refuse.
What if the Texans surprise everyone and take Anderson? Then that changes everything.
What if there are three great players you really like
Then it won’t matter
I thought for a while Houston might take Anderson but it’s obvious now they’re going QB
They think NT is Poona’s best spot?
Apparently so, I’ve heard that a couple of times
Scott Fitterer and Frank Reich are gushing like kids over Richardsons pro day. Something is brewing there.
Even if the Panthers stay with Stroud and Houston cannot be swayed, Arizona at 3 has to wonder, if Richardson is a better QB than Kyler Murray and his “homework problems”.
Add to this the division rivalry and trading up will be costly. #5 + #20 at minimum.
Arizona can depend on one thing. Will Levis is a prototype Colts prospect. And the Colts need to secure their pick from intervention. So they could swap picks, soon.
That said, I still think, PC is is win now mode. He needs to burn picks on DL. If you watch at QB, watch at low turnover Hendon Hooker at #20.
Oh, and I expect wild things to happen. Stafford to Atlanta-like wild things.
It would cost the Rams $54m in dead money to trade Stafford
I think the ‘PC in win now mode’ stuff is overblown. For starters, Schneider has a longer contract than PC. The franchise isn’t being run around 2023 otherwise they’d trade all these picks Rams style for veterans. Furthermore, you need elite talent to win a Championship. If PC (and JS) think someone like Richardson can be a franchise defining player by 2024 and 2025, they’re not going to turn that down to force defensive needs to ‘win now’ in 2023. Largely because they won’t win now. Not to the extent they want to.
Pretty cool breakdown of Evan Brown, maybe we don’t prioritize a center with a high pick?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=w3klifaiOJo
And here’s a good one on Luke Wypler who’d be great if we do…
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5M90t2zCn7U