Breaking down Mel Kiper’s latest mock draft

January 25th, 2023 | Written by Rob Staton

89 Responses to “Breaking down Mel Kiper’s latest mock draft”

  1. DW says:

    Just getting started, my first thought: arms are looking jacked Rob, putting that down on the scouting report.

  2. BK26 says:

    It’s going to be interesting seeing opinions on this from other outlets. This isn’t Jeremiah. This is Kiper. This is the Hair. He actually applies picks based off of the team’s situations and tendencies. And he does something that most mockers aren’t doing: ACTUALLY WATCHING THE TAPE.

    This gave me some needed hope. A legitimate outlet outside of this community with this thought process.

    • Rob Staton says:

      The reaction will be to criticise him, no doubt

      For some reason people like Jeremiah and Brugler are given loads of rope for their opinions and mocks and people like Mel are often portrayed as comedy characters

      It’s ridiculous because Kiper is often ahead of the curve, has the ear of some trusted people in the league and puts a lot of thought into his mocks

      • BK26 says:

        People don’t like knowledge and facts applied if it goes against what they want to hear or already believe.

        It’s like my daughter telling me that the zebra on her spoon is a hippo. She doesn’t care about the stripes that it has. Or the fact that it is a zebra haha.

      • cha says:

        Is that true though? Or does Kiper’s criticism just seem louder because he’s the undisputed king?

        DJ tweeted this and it’s funny because it’s true

        Daniel Jeremiah
        @MoveTheSticks
        ·
        Jan 20
        Ranking the most common mock draft replies:
        1) Worst Mock Ever
        2) Are You High?
        3) Why do you hate (insert team)
        4) (trash can emoji)
        5) Good Work DJ

  3. Ian says:

    Chicago trading down will certainly shake up the sequencing of those top picks. Levis might be gone already.

  4. Mick says:

    Rob, it looks like you got Levis, Kancey, Keion White right ahead of many.

    How funny would it be to go “screw the D, full power attack” and actually go QB at #5 and Bijan at #20.

    My impression on Mel’s mock is that he put the tackles higher than they deserve.

    • Carl says:

      There always seems to be a couple of tackles that sneak up the board though, does not seem surprising that a few would sneak into top half of round 1. Seahawks fans should hope as many tackles go early as possible as we are unlikely to draft an OT this year.

  5. Roy Batty says:

    I had a feeling Mel would be more aligned with reality🤣

    • Hawktalker#1 says:

      True, but when the bar is this low (thanks DJ) not too hard to look good. However, TBH, is did a far better job than most to date.

  6. Hard to take issue with most of this, but agree that Byron Young (TEN) is a super reach there. My guess is he won’t even be the first Byron Young drafted. He’s an interesting player, but how any team could reach for him with Bijan Robinson and Brian Branch sitting there is beyond me.

    If the Seahawks were to come out of the first round with Levis and Bijan or Branch, I’d be ecstatic.

    Calijah Kancey and Keion White – both too early in my opinion but, got to hand it to Mel, he’s put his nuts out there and they are definitely two buzzworthy players. As you said, he must be hearing something. But simply by virtue of being first rounders in Mel’s mock, the chances of them slipping into the huge value range just diminished quite a bit.

    • Peter says:

      Keion White:

      Is going to interview great. Can play in a 3-4 or 4-3. Might, just might, test off the charts at the combine.

      Was very good for old dominion. Got injured. And then put up a very good showing for one healthy year at Georgia Tech.

      Frankly total bias here based on things I look for…plays with much more play to play intensity than the likes of Tyree Wilson or Myles murphy.Murphy.

  7. cha says:

    Happy: Calijah Kancey is finally getting some pub

    Sad: Calijah Kancey is no longer a hidden gem

  8. Mr drucker in hooterville says:

    He has Young before Ika? Ika not in first round…interesting

  9. Big Mike says:

    Enjoyed this a great deal Rob. I want a QB of the future so badly and this would be awesome. I still say once Chicago trades out, we are not going to have Levis available but will have Richardson available to our team. I think John pulls the trigger and takes him.

    • Mick says:

      I also doubt Levis will last to 5, and I think #3 wouldn’t have been enough, very likely the first two picks will be Levis and Stroud, in some order. I expect the Cards to take Will Anderson, like everyone else does, and I hope Richardson doesn’t go at 4.

    • Ashish says:

      In media Levis is boom or bust prospect if hawks pick him at #5 it will called reach based on today’s assessment.

  10. Roy Batty says:

    Brock trashing Levis just now. Said he watch a half dozen games of his and doesn’t see him as an NFL starter.

    • Roy Batty says:

      And he really, really doesn’t like AR.

    • DC1234 says:

      Brock called Levis the next Blaine Gabbert at the guest appearance at Denver Fan Radio.

      Brock is way more knowledgeable about college football than me. So he could be right, idk.

      Its all projections and depends on which team drafts Levis.

    • Rob Staton says:

      Well, I disagree

      It sounds a bit like he has watched the 2022 tape and is maybe not completely aware of the issues Kentucky had and how totally desperate that situation was

      • Roy Batty says:

        The only question I would ask Brock is, what was your pre-draft take on Mahomes and Allen?

        Sometimes you just gotta roll the dice.

    • BK26 says:

      I…have never liked Brock’s player projections…. And Blaine Gabbert? That was pretty easy to see that coming just from watching his bowl game against Iowa. Maybe he watched what totals to a half dozen games piecemeal and it was just the bad plays.

      IDK how you don’t see what he can do. I think it’s a very odd take from him.

      • DC1234 says:

        He didn’t elaborate on why he thinks Levis is next Blaine Gabbert.

        Dmac from Denver Sports telling Brock that the seahawks need to draft a qb at #5. And if they dont, the seahawks will regret it. And Levis’ name came up and Brock said something about next Gabbert.

        Dmac’s belief is you need a top 1st round pick Qb to win. He complains about Broncos drafting Chubb over Josh Allen. Drafting surtain over fields.

        He wants denver to cut russ this year and tank for #1 pick to get Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. And his peers think he is crazy.

      • Ashish says:

        what JS think about Levis? It will come down to it. In way it is good that Levis is not #1 for everyone that gives hawks a chance.

  11. Trevor says:

    Love this new type of video you do where you analyze a mock. More great content thanks Rob!

  12. Trevor says:

    My ideal Day #1-2 for Hawks

    #5 QB of the future- Stroud, Richardson, Levis
    #20 DL talent with massive upside- Kancey, White or Breese
    #38 Elite 3rd target in pass game – Zay Flowers, Luke Musgrave, Josh Downs, Dalton Kincad
    #53 NT Mazi Smith or Siaki Ika
    #84 Interior OL- Cody Mauch, Luke Wypler, Jordan McFadden

    • DW says:

      This is my dream scenario. I like Fant maybe more than consensus but man if there is a world where Mayer is there at 20 I’d be sprinting to the podium.

      • Peter says:

        Do people not like Fant?

        I’d love to see him with Dalton Kincaid. Let dissly go after next year. Probably let Parkinson test the market.

        • cha says:

          Extending Parkinson this year would be a sneaky-good signing.

          • Peter says:

            Does Seattle do sneaky good signings?

            I agree if they lock him in now I’d be for it. Their mo is wait til the market is as high as its going to get and then pay. Thus let him test the market.

            It’s the geno effect. I saw on the last thread that teams aren’t clamoring for geno but I wonder if that’s more that it’s a foregone conclusion that Seattle is going to bid against itself for his services.

            • cha says:

              2022 Geno Smith
              Marquise Goodwin
              Uchenna Nwosu
              Tyler Lockett
              Jason Myers
              Michael Dickson
              Michael Jackson
              Al Woods
              DJ Reed

              • Peter says:

                I think we might not see sneaky good the same way.

                Of that list I’d say Lockett and Dickson for the value is what I consider sneaky good.

                Geno for a low price and incentives for one year? Sneaky would be if you got him for a jameis Winston style contract last year….watched everyone lose their mind but get his level of play for 15 million per year for a two more years. He didn’t win the superbowl or mvp so both sides could be happy with his compensation from career backup to guy with a good season.

                Uchenna? He’s their highest paid FA in sometime (ever?) And its for one more year. I don’t see the win for Seattle here. Most likely he’s got time to get a even greater contract next year.

                Goodwin for a year.

                Isn’t Meyers like a top five or three paid kicker going forward? That’s what I mean about paying guys on the top of their value.

                For parkinson if you could get him around say 3 years 12 million and he improves by let’s say 50% on yards to 450 ish or thereabouts and gets up to 4 tds I’d call that a good deal.

          • Blitzy the Clown says:

            💯

    • Glor says:

      My ideal Day #1:
      We have already signed Lock to a 2 year extension
      We already have signed two stud D-line free agents
      #5 QB as long as it’s not Young – if Levis, Shroud are gone, then trade down a couple spots if you think you can get AR a little lower, if he is gone, then go D
      #20 – if Michael Mayer or Bijan Robinson are here, take them – I would even go as far to say move up to get Mayer
      If we did get meyer by moving up a few spots, then we cut Disley with a post june 1st and save another 6mil on the cap. If we were able to move up to get Robinson, or if he fell to us, then don’t resign Penny – what a 1 two punch he and KW would be.
      2nd Round – grab safety/linebacker, since Diggs and Adams had both been given a post june 1st cut at this point.
      3rd work on interior o-line

    • Jeffrey says:

      Yes Trevor. I would love this draft.

  13. TomLPDX says:

    Nice review Rob. Hopefully it comes out close to this. Sure wish Mayock was still doing this, would love to see what he would come up with.

  14. KennyBadger says:

    Nice hat Rob – any upcoming articles handicapping the Oscars? 😎

  15. Dustin says:

    It seems the most likely scenario will be:

    1.Chi trades, trade partner takes Levis/Stroud 2. Hou takes whoever is left between Levis/Stroud
    3. Ari takes Anderson 4. Ind takes Richardson/Young 5. Sea takes whoever is left between Young/Richardson or Carter.

    Maybe Chi stays put and drafts Anderson, but we’ll see. If Seattle has to choose between Richardson, Young, or Carter, who do you take? I’d be happy with any of the 3, though I lean towards taking Richardson. It seems more likely Ind takes Young than Richardson, but it could go either way.

    • ….OR. seattle trades down 2-3 spots and grabs BPA on D front 7

      • Matt says:

        My qualm with this is that I’m not terribly sure a front 7 guy at pick 9 is much different than a guy in the 20s.

        I was listening to PFF last night and they are VERY low on the Edge class. Basically echoed what Rob has said about these guys – yes, they offer good upside, but unlike years prior, these guys have stunningly low ceilings.

        I’m not one to draft out of fear, but if it takes these guys 2-3 years to figure it out…I’d rather go QB and pay proven pass rushers.

        • Dustin says:

          Yeah I think Seattle is better staying put rather than trading down though if they get the right package maybe a trade down would be a good option if they get a good haul. I’d rather they pick at #5 and take Young or Richardson to compete with Lock. If we can get Levis or Stroud at #5, great, though that might be unlikely. Geno is going to be too expensive so we might as well take a QB with the Den. pick because we might not have a chance to pick this high for a long time. We can still get good defensive line talent with our other top 4 picks and as you mention if we take a QB we can afford some veteran DL.

      • TatupuTime says:

        It’s early enough that some of the guys are likely to rise up after testing and the usual group think exercise. As of right now I’m not sure who that D front 7 guy would be that makes you comfortable passing up Carter/QB for extra stock. Tyree Wilson is that trendy guy right now that gets linked to the Seahawks and often the next D front guy taken. But he just looks so slow of the snap to me. With time his body gives him the ability to work to the quarterback, but he definitely doesn’t win quick very often.

    • Cambs says:

      It seems unwise to me to take it as read that Arizona will exercise its pick in a scenario where all four quarterbacks wind up in-demand enough to be prospective top-five picks. The Cards are sitting directly ahead of literally six consecutive teams that might be interested in drafting a QB. Any of those teams trying to get to the front of the line, or anyone a bit later down who wants to jump the queue, will be ringing Glendale.

      Arizona needs a lot of help. tbd who the new regime will be but the transition probably gives them breathing room to execute a pivot without being on the year one hot seat. A trade down and a volume approach to replenishing the talent pipeline (while pushing some draft stock into the future should they want to move on from Kyler) might make a lot of sense for them also.

  16. Cysco says:

    This was awesome. Love the instant reaction aspect. Hope you keep that as a core aspect of these

    • cha says:

      Agree. That was a great suggestion.

      One thing Rob – if you’re posting this on the podcast channels (ie, audio-only, without video) could you make sure to name the team for each pick? “At #9 Kiper has the Carolina Panthers drafting…” would make it easier to follow if you don’t have video to see you scrolling through the picks.

  17. Matt says:

    Rob – check out the PFF Stock Exchange podcast from yesterday on Jeremiah’s mock. I don’t always agree with those guys, but they had a real interesting thoughts on this Edge class. I tend to agree.

    Why on earth would you go after Tyree Wilson at 5 when you could grab Keion White at 20 or possibly 38? You’re getting more upside at a lower cost. Wilson, Murphy, and Van Ness – those guys like them but also mentioned that the bust potential is insanely high. First time I’ve heard concerns about Murphy in the run game (outside of you).

    They kid glove Jeremiah but also offer a lot of “uh…what’s this pick,” including a nice reaction to Seahawks pick 20.

  18. geoff u says:

    I would go nuts over this pick as well, nuts for joy.

  19. Katal says:

    Would love QBotF at 5 and front seven help at 20. Give me a safety and a young wideout in the second round, and the future is suddenly looking much brighter.

  20. samprassultanofswat says:

    Would love to see Will Levis at 5 and Keion White at 20.

    But I don’t think Levis will still be on the board at 5. I am hoping/praying that someone does take Bryce Young between picks 1-4. But I don’t think that is going to happen.

    There is a really good chance C.J. Stroud/Will Levis will both be off the board before the Seahawks are on the clock.

    • geoff u says:

      I could see the Texans taking Young. They seem like a team that’s more concerned with selling tickets than winning games, and the star Alabama QB should be most likely to do that.

  21. Roy Batty says:

    Geno’s tweets make it pretty clear he is seeking tag-level money.

    The question then becomes, what team is actually willing to pay a guy with only one year of good play that kind of money?

    What team is watching the playoffs with 3 cheap QBs, saying to themselves, yeah I want to pay $30+ million to a guy who has year to prove he can win in the playoffs?

    • jed says:

      Good questions.

      Plus there is Brady, Carr, Jimmy G, Daniel Jones in that vet QB market. Add in 3 potential rookie QB starters (assuming Richardson sits for a year), and the options dwindle a bit. Granted, there is a range or quality in that group + Geno, but that’s a lot of QBs out there.

      And on your last question, which team saw the expensive, average QB performances in the playoffs and wants to copy that?

      Rob, I also want to add that I enjoyed the live reaction to the mock and hope you do more of them.

  22. Jordan says:

    Within the past 24 hours, at some books, Anthony Richardson has gone from +10000 to +5000 for 1st overall pick. Not saying it’ll happen, but something moved that line.

  23. Olyhawksfan says:

    Great video Rob, very entertaining.

    I can’t believe the Eagles have two firsts. They should take Bijan at 10!

  24. clbradley17 says:

    Another great review of a mock draft Rob. Hope Mel is right about Levis at 5, but we get a different great player at 20 (not Young). Looking forward to next week and the Senior Bowl practices and game, so we can see at least a couple of our future players. Always love the OL-DL one on ones.

    Mel and a couple others just went through his top picks including his Levis pick for Seattle at 5, and how Levis is so tough since he had no offensive line this year. Seattle pick discussion starts at 18 minutes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AxWRfoaxQHI&t=1082s

  25. Denver Hawker says:

    I can distinctly remember Heaps’ reaction last year when you brought up Will Levis- it was along the lines of “YESSSS!” – there’s a man who did some homework on QBs.

    I like Brock, but he’s no scout of NFL talent IMO.

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