Category: Featured (Page 4 of 11)

Updated mock draft: 21st March

March 21, 2012 / Rob Staton

The dyamic within the top ten picks is constantly shifting and could be manipulated further in the final month leading up to the draft. Four teams in particular will have a big influence on who the Seahawks pick at #12:

Jacksonsville Jaguars
The big question mark here is whether Shahid Khan will allow his GM Gene Smith to have full control over the draft. The Jags were right in the mix for Tim Tebow before he was dealt to the Jets earlier today. Smith hates distractions and Tebow – through no fault of his own – would’ve been the ultimate distraction. Having traded up for Blaine Gabbert a year ago, Khan’s interest in a local hero somewhat undermines the man he employs to build the roster. Is this a sign of things to come? Will Khan put pressure on his front office to go for a more exciting draft plan than Smith has used in the past? Or will the team’s GM be allowed to get on with the job of building around Blaine Gabbert and trying to make this a relevant franchise under a new coaching setup? It’s a bit of a mess at the moment.

Miami Dolphins
Speaking of franchises that are a mess, let’s move on to the Dolphins. Having struck out on Jim Harbaugh, Jeff Fisher, Peyton Manning and even Matt Flynn, Miami resembles an avalanche of destruction which will probably end up crashing into whoever has the misfortune to be the #1 pick in 2013. They have a new coaching staff, but don’t appear to have any ambitions to build around their vision. The quarterback situation is a joke and they may be forced into drafting Ryan Tannehill at #8 just to appease the masses. Ideally, they would’ve signed a player familiar with Joe Philbin’s system (Flynn), added a pass rusher in the draft and some more talent at receiver to take a methodical approach to rebuilding. They may well draft a defensive end anyway and look elsewhere for a quarterback (Brandon Weeden? Kirk Cousins? Brock Osweiler), but either way expect the Dolphins to get this wrong. A precedent has been set.

Carolina Panthers
Defense has to be the order of the day in Carolina, to support an offense led by blossoming superstar Cam Newton. Ron Rivera could sample with 3-4 looks in 2012 before making the permanent switch, putting scheme-flexible players like Dontari Poe and Fletcher Cox on the radar. Poe could easily line up at three-technique and could shed weight to play the position, but at 345lbs he’s also that rare athletic nose tackle teams drool over. Cox’s best fit is at the five-technique but can play some interior rush – although his run defense isn’t ideal playing inside in the 4-3. More importantly in terms of the impact on Seattle, let’s not rule out the Panthers drafting another pass rusher. Even with bigger needs at tackle and cornerback, Quinton Coples and Melvin Ingram are both local guys who could be on Carolina’s (and Seattle’s) radar.

Buffalo Bills
It’s fair to say the Bills’ threat to Seattle is diminishing and they won’t be competing for the same prospects. Signing Mario Williams to a mega-deal made it less likely Buffalo would add a pass rusher at #10, but the news today that Mark Anderson has agreed a four-year contract with the team shows that the draft priorities will lie elsewhere. It’s impossible to look beyond the offensive line and they’ll have a shot at the #2 ranked offensive tackle after Matt Kalil. Riley Reiff and Jonathan Martin are both good fits. The Bills have offered a contract to Demetrius Bell – the team’s starting left tackle in 2011. However, the offer comes a week into free agency and hasn’t been accepted to date, which suggests Buffalo are ready to look at alternatives. And let’s be honest here, what’s the point in having a great pass rush if your own quarterback is being equally pressured by much weaker opponents?

So what about the Seahawks?
By adding Matt Flynn and Jason Jones, it’s very clear what Pete Carroll and John Schneider are looking to get out of this draft. They still need a pass rushing compliment to Chris Clemons (the defense will never reach elite status without a much improved pass rush), they need to fill two holes at linebacker (although it’s still possible they could re-sign David Hawthorne and Leroy Hill) and finding a quality partner for Marshawn Lynch in the running game is a must. With a month to go, I fully expect the Seahawks to target a combination of – DE, LB, RB – in the first three rounds.

The popular choice for Seattle in a lot of mock drafts at the moment is Luke Kuechly, but I’m not buying into that. For starters, improving the pass rush has to be the priority and that’s something Kuechly won’t do. He’s a pure MLB who will make plenty of tackles at the second level, but isn’t going to cause too many problems behind the LOS. He added size for the combine (appearing at 242lbs) but is likely to have a playing weight of around 235-240lbs. That’s a concern and people wondering whether he’ll have a Brian Urlacher-type impact in the league have to remember Urlacher is 20lbs heavier. A better comparison for Kuechly would be Sean Lee in Dallas – a fine football player, but also the type that doesn’t cost a top-15 pick.

Great leadership is another reason quoted to justify Kuechly to Seattle, but the Seahawks already have a vocal and emotional leader on defense and just gave him a $35m extension. While a hole remains at MLB, it’s also worth remembering that David Hawthorne was an UDFA and the front office did a good job plucking KJ Wright from round four last year. Without doubt the MIKE spot will have to be filled if no free agent is signed, but with prospects such as Mychal Kendricks available beyond the first round, there’s no real need for the Seahawks to avoid drafting an impact pass rusher with the #12 pick should the opportunity present itself.

As for Seattle’s choice in this week’s mock, Quinton Coples gets the nod with Courtney Upshaw and Melvin Ingram off the board. Some team’s will avoid Coples due to his disappointing senior tape and the question marks that come with that. Other’s will believe they can tap into his upside and get the best out of an undoubted physical talent. Pete Carroll is the kind of coach that will thrive on a challenge like that. However, some teams out there are concerned about his run defense and for the Seahawks to invest their faith in the UNC lineman, they’d need to see that as an area he can improve.

Updated first round mock draft


	#1 Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford) The inevitable.


	#2 Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor) The inevitable part II.


	#3 Matt Kalil (OT, USC) Minnesota won’t waste any time calling Kalil’s name. He has elite potential. The inevitable part III.


	#4 Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama) The Browns have to find someone on offense to build around. Richardson would be the wise choice here.


	#5 Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU) The biggest spenders in free agency, Tampa Bay could still use a stud cornerback.


	#6 Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State) The Rams know this is now a three-draft plan so they need to take whoever is highest on their board with this pick.


	#7 Courtney Upshaw (DE, Alabama) If Gene Smith is still calling the shots by April 26th, Upshaw is the kind of player he likes to draft


	#8 Ryan Tannehill (QB, Texas A&M) Is this Plan C? Or are we further down the alphabet by now?


	#9 Melvin Ingram (DE, South Carolina) Carolina could consider adding another pass rusher here before drafting for DT and CB.


	#10 Riley Reiff (OT, Iowa) The Bills are going to draft an offensive lineman here, the only question is which one will they choose?


	#11 Dontari Poe (DT, Memphis) Nose tackles who weigh 345lbs and move as well as this guy don’t last long in round one.


	#12 Quinton Coples (DE, North Carolina) Pete Carroll would certainly back himself to get the best out of Coples, but some teams are concerned about his run defense.


	#13 Jonathan Martin (OT, Stanford) Whoever is playing quarterback for Arizona next year, the Cardinals simply must draft an offensive tackle.


	#14 Cordy Glenn (OT, Georgia) The moves made in free agency will allow the Cowboys to target Cordy Glenn or David DeCastro at this spot.


	#15 Fletcher Cox (DT, Mississippi State) One team will fall for Cox’s athleticism and ensure he’s taken early in the first round.


	#16 Vinny Curry (DE, Marshall) A potential riser as we get closer to the draft, Curry could go earlier than this even.


	#17 David DeCastro (OG, Stanford) Cincinnati will want to make sure one of their first round picks is a corner, but DeCastro is hard to pass here.


	#18 Dont’a Hightowe (OLB, Alabama) With the top offensive lineman leaving the board before the #18 pick, San Diego may fill another big need here.


	#19 Michael Brockers (DT, LSU) Trading for Brandon Marshall will allow Chicago to concentrate on the best lineman available at this spot.


	#20 Peter Konz (OC, Wisconsin) There’s always a shock in round one. Konz is good enough to justify a pick this early and will play in the league for a decade.


	#21 Stephon Gilmore (CB, South Carolina) Gilmore’s performance at the combine has seemingly done enough to cement his place in the top-25 picks.


	#22 Kendall Wright (WR, Baylor) Cleveland needs to keep adding playmakers and could see Wright as a nice compliment to Greg Little.


	#23 Whitney Mercilus (DE, Illinois) The Lions have built up their interior defensive line, but could look to add another edge rusher here.


	#24 Mike Adams (OT, Ohio State) There are some legitimate concerns about Adams’ play, but Pittsburgh may take a chance.


	#25 Doug Martin (RB, Boise State) This is now the Peyton Manning show, and he needs a running back who does it all, including catch the ball and pass-protect.


	#26 Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame) There are still some lingering question marks about his character that could limit his stock in round one.


	#27 Stephen Hill (WR, Georgia Tech) Josh McDaniels saw something in Demaryius Thomas. He could make a strong case for another Georgia Tech wide receiver.


	#28 Andre Branch (DE, Clemson) The Packers are running out of options to improve their pass rush and could consider Branch in this situation.


	#29 Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama) Having attacked the receiver market in free agency, San Fran could draft Kirkpatrick to play corner or safety.


	#30 Luke Kuechly (LB, Boston College) A smart, blue collar player who will have a solid career. But he falls because how many teams drastically need a 240lbs MLB?


	#31 Devon Still (DT, Penn State) His ability to line up in multiple spots could attract the Patriots, who are looking for more pass rush.


	#32 Zach Brown (LB, North Carolina) Brown is full of potential and could go earlier than this. New York would be a nice landing spot.

Round two

#33 St. Louis – Kevin Zeitler (OG, Wisconsin)
#34 Indianapolis – Coby Fleener (TE, Stanford)
#35 Minnesota – Mohamed Sanu (WR, Rutgers)
#36 Tampa Bay – Bobby Wagner (LB, Utah State)
#37 Cleveland – Nick Perry (DE, USC)
#38 Jacksonville – Reuben Randle (WR, LSU)
#39 St. Louis – Jerel Worthy (DT, Michigan State)
#40 Carolina – Jayron Hosley (CB, Virginia Tech)
#41 Buffalo – Ronnell Lewis (LB, Oklahoma)
#42 Miami – Mark Barron (S, Alabama)
#43 Seattle – Mychal Kendricks (LB, California)
#44 Kansas City – Kelechi Osemele (OG, Iowa State)
#45 Dallas – Jared Crick (DE, Nebraska)
#46 Philadelphia – Bobby Massie (OT, Ole Miss)
#47 New York Jets – Alshon Jeffery (WR, South Carolina)
#48 New England – Shea McClellin (DE, Boise State)
#49 San Diego – Brandon Brooks (OG, Miami OH)
#50 Chicago – Chandler Jones (DE, Syracuse)
#51 Philadelphia – Brock Osweiler (QB, Arizona State)
#52 Tennessee – Kendall Reyes (DT, Connecticut)
#53 Cincinnati – Lamar Miller (RB, Miami)
#54 Detroit – Brandon Boykin (CB, Georgia)
#55 Atlanta – Josh Robinson (CB, UCF)
#56 Pittsburgh – Casey Heyward (CB, Vanderbilt)
#57 Denver – Brandon Thompson (DT, Clemson)
#58 Houston – Josh Chapman (DT, Alabama)
#59 New Orleans – VOID
#60 Green Bay – Brandon Weeden (QB, Oklahoma State)
#61 Baltimore – Harrison Smith (S, Notre Dame)
#62 San Francisco – Dwayne Allen (TE, Clemson)
#63 New York Giants – David Wilson (RB, Virginia Tech)
#64 New England – Lavonte David (LB, Nebraska)

Matt Flynn signs in Seattle & how it impacts the draft

March 18, 2012 / Rob Staton

The Seahawks have agreed terms with free agent quarterback Matt Flynn, formerly of Green Bay. ESPN is reporting a $26m contract over three years, with $10m in guarantees. Others have suggested it’s a base-salary of $19m over the same time-frame. Either way, Seattle’s ambitions in the upcoming draft just became a lot clearer.

Don’t expect a quarterback to be drafted in the first two or three rounds next month. Flynn and Tarvaris Jackson will compete for a starting role in 2012, with the situation likely to be reviewed at the end of the season. As we discussed yesterday, the Seahawks could already be identifying quarterback targets in the 2013 draft class. Flynn’s contract will offer the flexibility to move on in a year’s time if he fails. If he succeeds, the Seahawks could consider reviewing those plans.

We’ll have to wait and see how Flynn’s contract breaks down – particularly the guaranteed portion – but this could essentially be an incentive laden one or two year investment to see if he has what it takes to succeed as a starter. To date he has just two NFL starts after joining the Packers as a 7th round pick out of LSU in 2008. I’ve supplied tape (see above) from his finest performance of the two – a week 17 victory over Detroit back in January.

He’ll have to compete with Jackson, but should he win that battle – he’ll likely have a one-year trial to win the faith of the coaching staff and front office. I suspect the Seahawks will structure the deal with a get-out clause so if Flynn fails, they are free to move on in 12 months time. However, fans hoping the competition will also include a rookie drafted in the first two rounds will almost certainly be left disappointed.

Seattle is making it clear they are going to improve other areas of the team next month with their ‘impact’ picks (rounds 1-3). That’s not to say another quarterback won’t be drafted – it’s worth keeping an eye on the prospects expected to leave the board between rounds 4-6. But it appears obvious they’ll turn their attention to the pass rush, front seven on defense and running game in the first few rounds.

This is a calculated move which allows the team to concentrate on other areas in the draft, open up a healthy competition at quarterback and take a better look at a guy with only two starts to his name. Perhaps more importantly, it allows the Seahawks a chance to bide their time. The 2013 class of quarterbacks will be a healthy group, and it includes a player very close to this organisations head honcho. The signing of Matt Flynn may well satisfy the masses until the opportunity to pursue that particular player becomes available.

If you haven’t already, it’s worth studying up on the top three pass rushers in this draft class – Courtney Upshaw, Melvin Ingram and Quinton Coples. And don’t rule out moves to set up a full-blown assault on the quarterback class in 2013.

Updated mock draft: 14th March

March 14, 2012 / Rob Staton

Yeah... probably won't need to do this in Buffalo

Free agency is in full flow, so before we get into this week’s projection I wanted to consider how it’s impacting the draft landscape:

– The Bills are going all-in to sign Mario Williams and it seems like a deal is close. Williams will spend a third day with the team on Thursday as the two parties hammer out a contract which could threaten Calvin Johnson’s record-breaking extension. This is fantastic news for the Seahawks, as it increases the chances Buffalo won’t draft a pass rusher at #10. With so much money invested in one star defensive end, expect the Bills to target offensive lineman in round one.

– Jacksonville likewise re-signed Jeremy Mincey, their best pass rusher. They still need more at the position, but having only been able to attract Laurent Robinson to Florida – could they possibly consider looking at a wide receiver at #7? They need to support Blaine Gabbert if they want him to succeed.

– The Dallas Cowboys have been busy, acquiring Brandon Carr today and also hosting Dan Connor. This says to me that they’re trying to address key needs at cornerback and linebacker to draft an interior lineman in round one. Cordy Glenn and David DeCastro could be in play at #14.

– The Seahawks re-signed Red Bryant and Marshawn Lynch, ensuring they weren’t left with any extra holes going into the draft. Linebacker is still an area of need with David Hawthorne (receiving interest from New Orleans) and Leroy Hill on the market, but Pete Carroll highlighted the position as an area for improvement at the end of the 2011 season. The Seahawks will kick the tire’s on the free agent quarterback market – which could be boosted in the next few days if players like Kevin Kolb are released. Matt Flynn and Chad Henne will only be offered competitive ‘Tarvaris Jackson’ type contracts, if they’re even offered a deal. This team appears to be setting itself up to attack the position next year to get the player the fans crave in Seattle.

– Unless the team shows any serious interest in a player like Kamerion Wimbley when he’s eventually cut by Oakland, it appears the Seahawks will be set up to draft a pass rusher at #12. I’m not expecting the team to draft a quarterback until round three at the earliest, but Brock Osweiler and Kirk Cousins are probably the two players to keep an eye on in that range.

– The Seahawks should be applauded for their work in free agency so far. The priority was always to re-sign Marshawn Lynch and Red Bryant. Job done. Anything else is a bonus.

– It’s also worth touching on why it’s not the end of the world that Seattle will not be introducing Peyton Manning and Mario Williams to the media this week. This remains a very fluid rebuild for the Seahawks, it’ll take time and maybe every one of the five-years on Pete Carroll’s contract before you see his vision completely installed. Spending over $100m on Mario Williams would’ve excited a few people, but it would also mean potentially difficult decisions down the line. When you have a player on the kind of salary Williams will command, the cap ramifications could mean you’re not be able – for example – to franchise Earl Thomas when he’s up for renewal. Perhaps it’d be a case of keeping Thomas, but losing Kam Chancellor or Russell Okung? The Seahawks want to sign great players, but they also want to reward their own first and foremost. That’s how you build. While the options at #12 won’t be as emphatic as Mario Williams, they will still find a prospect capable of complimenting the teams pass rush.

– One final quick thought – it seems like it’s becoming a six-player race at the top of the board. Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Matt Kalil, Justin Blackmon, Morris Claiborne and Trent Richardson are looking pretty safe to be the first six players off the board – with the only real debate at picks 4-6. Cleveland could draft any one of Blackmon, Claiborne or Richardson – with Tampa Bay and St. Louis picking through the scraps.

It’s a two-round projection this week by popular demand. I’ve listed some of ‘the next best available’ for round three at the bottom and also offered some thoughts on what I don’t like about the projection (they’re never perfect). So before you throw your computer across the room (Doug) after seeing Seattle’s pick, please read my explanation.

Updated first round mock draft


	#1 Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford) The inevitable.


	#2 Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor) The inevitable part II.


	#3 Matt Kalil (OT, USC) Minnesota won’t waste any time calling Kalil’s name. He has elite potential. The inevitable part III.


	#4 Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State) This is where it gets interesting. The Browns must have a plan. Will it be to reunite Weeden and Blackmon in Ohio?


	#5 Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU) The biggest spenders in free agency, Tampa Bay could still use a stud cornerback.


	#6 Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama) The Rams know this is now a three-draft plan. This guy will be a star, so take him and don’t look back.


	#7 Melvin Ingram (DE, South Carolina) The Jaguars need to improve their pass rush and will have their pick of the group at this spot.


	#8 Ryan Tannehill (QB, Texas A&M) Plan B if they can’t pursuade Peyton Manning to take his talents to South Beach?


	#9 Fletcher Cox (DT, Mississippi State) Carolina will probably have a good look at Dontari Poe, but the upside of Cox could win the day.


	#10 Riley Reiff (OT, Iowa) Buffalo are desperately trying to get a deal done for Mario Williams. If they land the star prize, they’ll go offensive tackle here.


	#11 Dontari Poe (DT, Memphis) Nose tackles who weigh 345lbs and move as well as this guy don’t last long in round one.


	#12 Courtney Upshaw (DE, Alabama) The Seahawks’ draft priority is to improve their pass rush. Upshaw will have a big impact on Seattle’s defense.


	#13 Jonathan Martin (OT, Stanford) Whoever is playing quarterback for Arizona next year, the Cardinals simply must draft an offensive tackle.


	#14 Cordy Glenn (OT, Georgia) The moves made in free agency will allow the Cowboys to target Cordy Glenn or David DeCastro at this spot.


	#15 Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame) Why not get a big possession receiver to compliment newly re-signed DeSean Jackson?


	#16 Quinton Coples (DE, North Carolina) The talent is there, but teams have concerns about his 2011 tape and his run defense.


	#17 David DeCastro (OG, Stanford) Cincinnati will want to make sure one of their first round picks is a corner, but DeCastro is hard to pass here.


	#18 Andre Branch (DE, Clemson) With the top offensive lineman leaving the board before the #18 pick, San Diego may fill another big need here.


	#19 Michael Brockers (DT, LSU) Trading for Brandon Marshall will allow Chicago to concentrate on the best lineman available at this spot.


	#20 Peter Konz (OC, Wisconsin) There’s always a shock in round one. Konz is good enough to justify a pick this early and will play in the league for a decade.


	#21 Doug Martin (RB, Boise State) An extreme playmaker who will have an impact from day one. He could be the second coming of Ray Rice.


	#22 Whitney Mercilus (DE, Illinois) Cleveland could use another edge rusher and this guys production last year could intrigue the Browns.


	#23 Stephon Gilmore (CB, South Carolina) A smart performance at the combine will promote Gilmore’s stock into the bottom half of round one.


	#24 Mike Adams (OT, Ohio State) There are some legitimate concerns about Adams’ play, but Pittsburgh may take a chance.


	#25 Luke Kuechly (LB, Boston College) Yes he performed well at the combine – but he’s still a middle linebacker, a position with a restricted value.


	#26 Stephen Hill (WR, Georgia Tech) He’s a tremendous athlete who makes spectacular plays. It’s more than combine hype that puts Hill in round one contention.


	#27 Kevin Zeitler (OG, Wisconsin) He’s rising up the boards and could be seen as a solid pick for a team looking for a long term piece to their offensive line.


	#28 Vinny Curry (DE, Marshall) The Packers are running out of options to improve their pass rush and could consider Curry in this situation.


	#29 Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama) Having attacked the receiver market in free agency, San Fran could draft Kirkpatrick to play corner or safety.


	#30 Dont’a Hightower (LB, Alabama) The very definition of a defensive prospect who fits in Baltimore. A tough football player, simple as that.


	#31 Devon Still (DT, Penn State) His ability to line up in multiple spots could attract the Patriots, who are looking for more pass rush.


	#32 Zach Brown (LB, North Carolina) Brown is full of potential and could go earlier than this. New York would be a nice landing spot.

Round two

#33 St. Louis – Kendall Wright (WR, Baylor)
#34 Indianapolis – Lamar Miller (RB, Miami)
#35 Minnesota – Mohamed Sanu (WR, Rutgers)
#36 Tampa Bay – Bobby Wagner (LB, Utah State)
#37 Cleveland – Brandon Weeden (QB, Oklahoma State)
#38 Jacksonville – Reuben Randle (WR, LSU)
#39 St. Louis – Kelechi Osemele (OG, Iowa State)
#40 Carolina – Jayron Hosley (CB, Virginia Tech)
#41 Buffalo – Ronnell Lewis (LB, Oklahoma)
#42 Miami – Mark Barron (S, Alabama)
#43 Seattle – Mychal Kendricks (LB, California)
#44 Kansas City – Bobby Massie (OT, Ole Miss)
#45 Dallas – Jared Crick (DE, Nebraska)
#46 Philadelphia – Nick Perry (DE, USC)
#47 New York Jets – Alshon Jeffery (WR, South Carolina)
#48 New England – Shea McClellin (DE, Boise State)
#49 San Diego – Brandon Brooks (OG, Miami OH)
#50 Chicago – Dwayne Allen (TE, Clemson)
#51 Philadelphia – Brock Osweiler (QB, Arizona State)
#52 Tennessee – Chandler Jones (DE, Syracuse)
#53 Cincinnati – Casey Heyward (CB, Vanderbilt)
#54 Detroit – Brandon Boykin (CB, Georgia)
#55 Atlanta – Josh Robinson (CB, UCF)
#56 Pittsburgh – Dwight Jones (WR, North Carolina)
#57 Denver – Brandon Thompson (DT, Clemson)
#58 Houston – Josh Chapman (DT, Alabama)
#59 New Orleans – Lavonte David (LB, Nebraska)
#60 Green Bay – Kirk Cousins (QB, Michigan State)
#61 Baltimore – Harrison Smith (S, Notre Dame)
#62 San Francisco – Orson Charles (TE, Georgia)
#63 New York Giants – Kendall Reyes (DT, Connecticut)
#64 New England – Janoris Jenkins (CB, North Alabama)

Best available in round three: Sean Spence (LB, Miami), Alameda Ta’amu (DT, Washington), Chris Polk (RB, Washington), Jerel Worthy (DT, Michigan State), Dwight Bentley (CB, Louisiana-Lafayette), David Wilson (RB, Virginia Tech), Cam Johnson (DE, Virginia), Logan Harrell (DT, Fresno State), Bruce Irvin (DE, West Virginia), Robert Turbin (RB, Utah State), Mike Martin (DT, Michigan), Brandon Washington (OG, Miami)

Things I’m not happy with (because a mock cannot be perfect…)

– Brock Osweiler dropping to pick #51. In my opinion, he’s clearly the third best quarterback in this class and worthy of a tentative first round grade. However, opinion is mixed and it’s difficult to find a home for him earlier than this. The Seahawks might avoid the quarterback position in the first two rounds, but they must sprint to the podium if Osweiler is there in round three.

– Kansas City really needs to repair their offensive line and it could hold them back considering the talent they have at the skill positions. At the same time, can they afford to pass on a future nose tackle who could anchor their defense for years to come?

– I don’t do trades and the exception for Robert Griffin III has since been justified. However, I suspect we’re going to see an awful lot of movement this year – maybe more than ever. For that reason, I don’t expect the majority of mocks you’ll see over the next few weeks to hit the mark – including mine.

– I’m concerned about the sanity of some readers (I’m looking at you, Doug) after mocking Upshaw to Seattle again this week. I know, I know. Look – I’m not doing this to provoke people, I’m not doing this because I’m unable to move away from my own high grade of Courtney Upshaw. This is not a man-crush. I actually intended to move away from this pick today. However, with events working the way they have in free agency and with Buffalo in pole position to re-sign Mario Williams, I worked through each pick carefully and couldn’t see a realistic way of avoiding it. I’m preparing my crow pie just in case the Seahawks pass on the guy on April 26th, but I will not go out of my way to deliberately make a projection I don’t trust. It was the same last year with Jake Locker going in the top-10 – I always believed it would happen… 100%. So why stray? We look at alternatives during the week and will continue to do so (expect a big article on this subject later in the week). For now – I apologise, but it is what it is.

Thoughts on the STL-WASH trade

March 10, 2012 / Rob Staton

Robert Griffin III - future Redskins quarterback

The Washington Redskins have won the Robert Griffin III sweepstakes, striking a deal with St. Louis for the #2 overall pick. The trade can’t be ratified until the new league year starts next Tuesday, but it appears RGIII will be playing in the NFC East. The price? Potentially as much as three first round picks, including Washington’s #6 overall pick this year. A heavy price, and people now see why Seattle never had any realistic chance of moving up for the Baylor quarterback.

Cleveland essentially rejected the chance to draft Robert Griffin III, because they always had the upper hand in trade talks. Not only do they pick before Washington this year, but their bounty of two first rounders in this year’s draft was always the joker in the pack. Time will tell if that was a wise move or not, but the thought of turning to Matt Flynn instead of RGIII is cringe-worthy for the fans in Cleveland. That’s a franchise that has needed a superstar for a long time now. While Griffin III was no guarantee, he would’ve provided a spark for a city still reeling from Lebron James’ departure.

So what direction do the Browns go in the draft? There are three obvious candidates at #4 now – Justin Blackmon, Morris Claiborne and Trent Richardson. It’s worth noting that Pat Shurmur was at the Oklahoma State pro-day yesterday. Could Cleveland target both Blackmon and Brandon Weeden? It’s a possibility, although it’s unclear what round the Browns would target Weeden. Richardson is good enough to go #4 overall but his off-season has been stalled after minor knee surgery and let’s not forget – even Adrian Peterson didn’t go that early.

St. Louis will now pick 6th overall. They could find themselves in a situation where Blackmon is taken 4th overall and Claiborne 5th overall by Tampa Bay. What then? Do they take Trent Richardson? Do they draft a defensive tackle such as Dontari Poe or Michael Brockers? Could they realistically move down the board again, accumulating further picks? Although the Rams came away with a treasure chest in this trade with Washington, you have to believe they would’ve preferred the #4 pick in a big way.

And what about Ryan Tannehill? In recent weeks he’s become the popular choice to go #6 overall to Washington. Personally, I wouldn’t draft him in round one. The idea of having him go so early was purely down to Mike Shanahan and the way he grades quarterbacks. Now what? He’s unlikely to be drafted by Cleveland at #4, but could he reunite with Mike Sherman in Miami should the Dolphins miss out on Peyton Manning? And if Miami doesn’t draft Tannehill, what then?

Does this trade impact the Seahawks? A lot of people will start to project the Texas A&M quarterback to Seattle – a scenario that would be stunning in my eyes. The Seahawks focus remains pass rush and that will likely remain that case right up until April 26th. Manning’s eventual destination will impact a lot, because if he joins Miami or Kansas City – they’d be more likely to go offensive line with their first pick to protect that investment. If Manning moves to Denver, then the Dolphins could go Tannehill. Either way – it’s another team out of the running for Upshaw, Coples or Ingram. It could also increase the chances of Trent Richardson being a nice wild-card option for Seattle.

Possible top-12 picks post trade

#1 IND – Andrew Luck
#2 WAS – Robert Griffin III
#3 MIN – Matt Kalil
#4 CLE – Justin Blackmon
#5 TB – Morris Claiborne
#6 STL – Dontari Poe
#7 JAC – Melvin Ingram
#8 MIA – Ryan Tannehill
#9 CAR – Michael Brockers
#10 BUF – Quinton Coples
#11 KC – Trent Richardson
#12 SEA – Courtney Upshaw

Updated mock draft: 7th March

March 7, 2012 / Rob Staton

We’re 50 days away from the 2012 NFL draft and just over a week away from the start of free agency. The complexion of the draft could shift dramatically when the market opens, with teams adjusting priorities and making deals. Where will Peyton Manning land? What about Mario Williams? We could be looking at a very different first round projection by April.

There are a few minor tweaks to this weeks mock, but no substantial changes. I’ll continue to project Cleveland trading up for Robert Griffin III rather than Washington. Although many people make the Redskins favorites at this stage, the Browns will have to physically reject the chance to draft Griffin III not to make this happen. Whatever Washington is willing to pay, Cleveland can better it with their two first round picks this year.

Some reports have suggested the Browns aren’t willing to part with the #22 overall pick. We’re in a period now where teams are jostling for leverage in negotiations, things will eventually pick up after the posturing is complete and a deal will be made. Cleveland appointed Brad Childress – a coordinator from the Andy Reid coaching tree – for a reason. The Redskins would have to be creative to beat the Browns to RGIII and I suspect they’ll be less inclined to do so knowing they can still draft Ryan Tannehill at #6 without giving up as much as three first round picks. Given time I expect Cleveland will do what it takes to get the deal done and it’s very much in their hands.

The prospect I’m most intrigued with at the moment is Alabama’s Trent Richardson. He won’t participate in Alabama’s pro-day after minor knee surgery, having already missed the combine. A player with such undoubted quality doesn’t need work-outs to prove anything, but teams will want to see him healthy and running prior to the draft. Richardson is good enough to be a top-five pick and could be drafted as a luxury by teams with a star running back already in the stable. For example, there’s nothing to stop Tampa Bay, Jacksonville or Miami deciding the guy is just too good to pass. If he’s an option for the Seahawks having just re-signed Marshawn Lynch to a four-year extension, he’s an option to partner Maurice Jones-Drew or Reggie Bush.

At the moment I have Richardson going to Kansas City, a team who could build their offense around a double-headed monster alongside Jamaal Charles. But if he did make it to #12, the Seahawks would have a choice to make. The concept of a Lynch-Richardson partnership is beyond exciting, yet Seattle really wants to improve their pass rush first and foremost. With a lot of the second tier defensive ends promoting their stock into round one, the Seahawks would be taking a big risk by not adding to their front seven in round one. At the same time, the depth at running back in rounds 2-3 is very good with the likes of Doug Martin, Lamar Miller, David Wilson and Chris Polk likely to be available.

Passing on a player like Richardson would be tough to handle, even though Seattle has one of the more productive running backs in the NFL. But if other teams picking in the top-ten are willing to look elsewhere, so could the Seahawks.

I can already hear the groans from some as Courtney Upshaw is once again placed with the Seahawks in this mock. I have to stick to my guns with this and call the board as I see it. There’s still a chance Upshaw could go higher than a lot of people expect, even in the top ten. A prospect like Melvin Ingram has momentum on his side after an impressive display at the combine, but over the next few weeks teams will go back to the tape. Below I’ve included two games from each prospect – Ingram against two tough opponents from 2011 in Nebraska and Clemson, Upshaw against Cam Newton and Auburn (National Champions) from 2010 and also this year’s BCS Championship game against LSU. Ingram takes the athletic edge, but on tape I firmly believe Upshaw wins out. Judge for yourself:

Melvin Ingram vs Nebraska & Clemson

Courtney Upshaw vs Auburn & LSU

Either way, it seems likely both players – and Quinton Coples – will be off the board when Jacksonville, Miami, Buffalo and Seattle have made their picks.

Updated first round mock draft


	#1 Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford) Indianapolis confirmed the inevitable this week. Peyton Manning will be cut, Andrew Luck will be the team’s new quarterback.


	TRADE #2 Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor) The Browns have the ammunition to make this happen. Eventually, they’ll come to a deal with St. Louis.


	#3 Matt Kalil (OT, USC) Minnesota won’t waste any time calling Kalil’s name. He has elite potential.


	TRADE #4 Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State) I wouldn’t take Blackmon this early, but the Rams need a playmaker more than anything else.


	#5 Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU) Linebacker and cornerback are the two biggest needs on this team, but they must be tempted by Trent Richardson too.


	#6 Ryan Tannehill (QB, Texas A&M) If the Redskins don’t trade up, it’s hard to see them drifting into another year without some long term thinking at quarterback.


	#7 Melvin Ingram (DE, South Carolina) The Jaguars need to improve their pass rush and will have the pick of Ingram, Upshaw and Coples.


	#8 Riley Reiff (OT, Iowa) If the Dolphins sign Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne, their priority would have to be protecting that investment.


	#9 Dontari Poe (DT, Memphis) Players who weigh 345lbs and move as well as Poe don’t last long on draft day. Carolina will transition to more 3-4 looks.


	#10 Quinton Coples (DE, North Carolina) Moving to a 4-3 defense makes Coples a solid fit here. The Bills desperately need to improve their pass rush.


	#11 Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama) Richardson is too talented to keep falling and if he drops out of the top ten, he probably won’t get past Kansas City and Seattle.


	#12 Courtney Upshaw (DE, Alabama) The Seahawks’ draft priority is to improve their pass rush. Upshaw will have a big impact on Seattle’s defense.


	#13 Jonathan Martin (OT, Stanford) Whoever is playing quarterback for Arizona next year, the Cardinals simply must draft an offensive tackle.


	#14 Cordy Glenn (OT, Georgia) Dallas could attack the corner market in free agency, allowing them to target Glenn or David DeCastro at this spot.


	#15 Flecther Cox (DT, Mississippi State) Andy Reid hasn’t drafted linebackers early in the past and he might find it difficult to pass on a physical freak like Cox.


	#16 Andre Branch (DE, Clemson) New York needs to improve it’s pass rush. Branch has a ton of potential and can transition to the 3-4.


	#17 David DeCastro (OG, Stanford) Cincinnati will want to make sure one of their first round picks is a corner, but DeCastro is hard to pass here.


	#18 Whitney Mercilus (DE, Illinois) With the top offensive lineman leaving the board before the #18 pick, San Diego may fill another big need here.


	#19 Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame) Floyd’s combine performance was good enough to confirm his likely position within the first round.


	#20 Nick Perry (DE, USC) Tennessee are another team that has to look at the edge rushers. The tape doesn’t always match Perry’s excellent combine performance.


	#21 Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama) Tall, physical cornerback who specialises in run support but his coverage skills need work.


	TRADE #22 Michael Brockers (DT, LSU) St. Louis has some edge rush talent but they don’t have a space clogger in the middle. Brockers could be BPA at this stage.


	#23 Stephon Gilmore (CB, South Carolina) A smart performance at the combine will promote Gilmore’s stock into the bottom half of round one.


	#24 Mike Adams (OT, Ohio State) There are some legitimate concerns about Adams’ play, but Pittsburgh may take a chance.


	#25 Luke Kuechly (LB, Boston College) Yes he performed well at the combine – but he’s still a middle linebacker, a position with a restricted value.


	#26 Stephen Hill (WR, Georgia Tech) He’s a tremendous athlete who makes spectacular plays. It’s more than combine hype that puts Hill in round one contention.


	#27 Peter Konz (C, Wisconsin) Nick Mangold, Alex Mack and Peter Konz. That’s how good Konz is leaving college.


	#28 Vinny Curry (DE, Marshall) The Packers are running out of options to improve their pass rush and could consider Curry in this situation.


	#29 Kendall Wright (WR, Baylor) Wright could drop a bit after running slow times. San Francisco won’t care – they’ll find ways to max-out his talent in different ways.


	#30 Dont’a Hightower (LB, Alabama) The very definition of a defensive prospect who fits in Baltimore. A tough football player, simple as that.


	#31 Mark Barron (S, Alabama) The injury isn’t helping matters and although he has legitimate top-20 potential, he may fall a bit.


	#32 Josh Robinson (CB, UCF) A late riser after a great combine. New York are in a position to look for value.

The case for why Peyton Manning won’t be a Seahawk

March 6, 2012 / Rob Staton

This man will not be Seattle's next quarterback

It was finally confirmed today that Peyton Manning will leave Indianapolis and become a free agent. What a shocker, nobody saw that coming. You can almost hear the collective gasp of anticipation among Seahawks fans as they hope against hope that their team will be the ones to win the Manning sweepstakes. This is a great solution, right? Get a future Hall of Fame quarterback, let him go to work and lead a blossoming young team to the promise land? A quick fix to make the Seahawks a competitor? The answer to the team’s prayers?

Not exactly.

Any team would love to build around the younger model of Peyton Manning – he’s the very definition of a franchise quarterback. However, there’s no way of knowing that this version of Manning is anything remotely like the one that churned out AFC South division titles like they were going out of fashion. He’s old, he’s been injured and there’s no way of knowing how long he’ll hold up. Could he break down in training camp? Will it be week three of the season? Will it be at the end of year one? With respect, all of those options are just as likely – if not more likely – than Manning rolling back the years to regain his former peak.

Any team that signs Manning will have to make concessions. In Seattle’s case, they’d have to adapt their playbook in quite a big way. You’d have to remove a lot of the naked bootleg’s and developing routes, you might have to temper some of the downfield stuff. Even play action might be less likely with an emphasis on keeping Manning clean and getting the ball out quickly to the receivers. The player himself would also want to add some plays and modify things to fit what he’s been used to. After all, if you’re going to sign Peyton Manning you’re going to want to make life as comfortable for him as possible. You’d also have to change the blocking schemes to max-protect, because one hit could mean curtains. You’re kidding yourself if you believe you can just plug him in and let him run whatever offense you have. Some would argue, ‘why not change?’ for the sake of having Peyton Manning. In reality, there are lots of reasons.

The Seahawks are building a young, hungry contender. It’s patently obvious that a zone blocking scheme, heavy run game with developing routes, bootlegs and play action is not a Peyton Manning offense. I watched the video below featuring Brian Billick and Charles Davis where the former Ravens coach suggests Seattle has no identity on offense and this is something Manning could provide. In fairness, Billick is completely wrong. The Seahawks have a very defined vision on offense and know exactly what they want to do. Manning doesn’t fit. So do you change everything around, modify the playbook and blocking, sign Reggie Wayne and make this the Peyton Manning show only to discover he can’t take the strain of the NFL anymore? What then? Change back in a rush?

There are other teams out there – some with new coaching staffs – in a better position to take on Project:Manning without needing any major repair work if things go wrong. Arizona for example are in the process of rebuilding their offensive line and can adapt their blocking schemes. Manning and Ken Whisenhunt are close and Peyton would be afforded the opportunity to control most of the offense. There’s room for Reggie Wayne to join Larry Fitzgerald and the dome/warm weather will appeal too. If Manning can’t continue, it wouldn’t be a major re-tool to fit John Skelton back into the starting position. In many ways, Arizona makes a lot of sense. The Cardinals don’t really have a clear identity on offense and the Kevin Kolb trade proved to be a failure. Seattle on the other hand has priotised the run and the passing game to a degree is being used to supplement that. A lot of passing play calls in Seattle are used as an extension to the run, with mobile quarterbacks encouraged to improvise and tuck and run when required. That isn’t Manning – and the Seahawks would have to detach from their blueprint to accommodate Peyton.

It’s also important to understand the men re-building this Seahawks roster. Can you see Pete Carroll and John Schneider signing Peyton Manning? I think this tweet from Hawk blogger sums it up best: “From ESPN: “GM John Schneider has a track record of finding diamonds in the rough, not entering a bidding war for the Hope Diamond.” Personally, I don’t think Peyton Manning would be that interested in the ‘always compete’, ‘win forever’ mantra. I don’t think Carroll is his kind of coach, or Manning Pete’s kind of quarterback. Manning’s used to doing things his way, but it’ll be Carroll’s way that wins out in Seattle. Simply put, it’s just not a great match.

Arizona, Kansas City, Oakland, New York, Miami. These are the teams I think will be making the strongest push for Manning. We may have to wait a while to find out what’s going to happen, because nobody is likely to sign the man while his health remains in doubt. Brief footage emerged this week of him throwing a football at Duke University, but teams will need further reassurance before a contract is inked. I expect the Seahawks to sign or trade for a quarterback. That player will compete with Tarvaris Jackson to start in 2012. It may be a bridge-type player and they may draft at least one quarterback in the round 4-6 range next month. It may be that next year is the time to go ‘all-in’ on the quarterback they want. Yet despite all the media talk today, I wouldn’t expect #18 to be appearing regularly in the Pacific North West.

Other free agency predictions:

Vincent Jackson (WR) – San Diego, Jacksonville, Washington

Marcus Colston (WR) – Jacksonville, New Orleans

Matt Flynn (QB) – Oakland, Miami, Cleveland

Mario Williams (DE) – Houston, New England

Red Bryant (DE/DT) – Seattle

Why Seattle will continue to build through the draft

March 3, 2012 / Rob Staton

The Seahawks are looking for more of this in 2012 and beyond

The day will come when the Seahawks can go into a draft intending to take the best player available, regardless of position. That day has not yet arrived. There’s been a lot of discussion over the past week about what the plan may be – would they draft a receiver? Will they select another offensive lineman in round one? Will they take a quarterback? The way I see it, Seattle’s front office aren’t asking those same questions.

From the day this regime took control, it’s obvious they’ve had a clear vision about what they want to get out of a draft – and it’s worked so far. In 2010 they were determined to go left tackle and safety with their two first round picks. Initially, I understand they believed it was possible to draft Eric Berry with the #6 overall pick and Trent Williams at #14. However, as the process developed it became evident that both would be top-five choices. It’s easy to forget in hindsight that for a long time in the build up to the draft, Williams was far from a consensus high pick. His raw athleticism and fit in the ZBS pushed him into Washington’s path at #4, with Berry the next to go at #5 to Kansas City.

As it turns out, the Seahawks were afforded the opportunity to get their left tackle at #6 in Russell Okung and their safety at #14 with Earl Thomas. Schneider has since admitted a trade was in place to move down the board had Philadelphia – who traded into the #13 slot – selected Thomas as many expected. Instead they took Brandon Graham and Seattle got the man and the position they wanted. That’s not to say the Seahawks wouldn’t have had a contingency plan or secondary target (likely a pass rusher) but the clear vision was set out for offensive tackle and safety – and they executed.

Carroll made a point to emphasise the run game following his appointment as coach, yet the Seahawks struggled in that department in 2010. This was to be the heart and soul of the offense, so the fact it was so ineffective in year one moved Carroll to act. In came Tom Cable and the team’s first two picks in the 2011 draft were spent on big offensive lineman. Robert Gallery was later signed in free agency in what became a complete rebuild and re-structure for the run game. It wasn’t a coincidence that Seattle went the way they did in the draft, it was totally calculated. The Seahawks zoned in on improving their offensive line with a view to getting the run game going. It’s not like they didn’t have alternatives – they turned down a lot of talent elsewhere with the two picks that were spent on James Carpenter and John Moffitt.

This year the focus will be on defense and the front seven. Carroll and his staff aren’t satisfied with a one-dimensional pass rush, with all the pressure dependant on Chris Clemons. He was the only player in 2011 to provide consistent production in terms of sacks and he didn’t get much help anywhere else. In the 2012 draft, that will be the next focus area in this big rebuild. We’ve talked about the possible options at #12 overall, but it seems very likely that at least one of Courtney Upshaw, Melvin Ingram or Quinton Coples will be available. That’s as far as we need to look. There won’t be a wide receiver drafted like Justin Blackmon or Michael Floyd, they won’t go after David De Castro or Jonathan Martin. In year one it was tackle and safety, last year it was the offensive line, now it’s the turn of the pass rush.

So far the results within this strategy have been extremely positive. Both Okung and Thomas have been succesful and although Carpenter and Moffitt suffered serious long term injuries in 2011 – the determination to improve the running game and offensive line provoked a much improved ground attack last season. Considering the new regime had to completely rebuild this team from scratch, so far the decision to target specific zones has worked a treat. Improvement within the front seven is the next target by adding another pass rusher and finding improved speed at linebacker. I suspect in twelve months time we’ll be talking about how this team achieved much more pressure on opposition quarterbacks in 2012.

Under Tim Ruskell, the Seahawks tried to address key needs in free agency in order to take a ‘BPA’ approach during the draft based on the strict grading system of the GM. The end result wasn’t good – the Seahawks became an old and expensive bunch without much forward planning. Although Seattle was being aggressive in free agency to fill needs with older players, the draft wasn’t used properly to plan for the long term. Instead, the first round picks were spent on trying to find further impact players who could contribute relatively early. In hindsight it’s fair to say this wasn’t a great strategy – at least for this team – given they went from being a Super Bowl contender to one of the worst teams in the NFL.

The new plan is almost the polar opposite. Sure, Seattle are making calculated moves in free agency. Last year’s additions of Robert Gallery, Sidney Rice and Zach Miller were a throwback to former moves, although it’s fair to say Rice and Miller are a lot younger than the Patrick Kerney’s, Mike Wahle’s, T.J. Houshmandzadeh’s and Julian Peterson’s of the Ruskell era. Yet the moves made after the lockout concluded were supposed to give the team a kick start – a necessary lift to help the rebuild move a little faster. Only Rice was filling a crucial need and one the Seahawks had previously tried to fill by looking into trades for Brandon Marshall and Vincent Jackson.

The proper team building has been left to the draft – and that will likely become even more of the case over the next few years. The Seahawks will probably make calculated moves that bring value to the team and don’t create big discrepancies between the big earners and the rest of the team. Carroll is building a core of young, hungry players who will compete – not a group of expensive free agents with a diminished motivation due to new-found wealth. While Ruskell would attack an area of the team in free agency, Carroll and Schneider will do the same in the draft. It’s why I don’t think we’ll see this team make Mario Williams the highest paid defensive player in the NFL and why I do think we’ll see a pass rusher drafted with the #12 pick.

And for those questioning the ongoing need at quarterback – I’m sure a time will come when the aggressive team-building approach to the draft turns to the position. In fact, I’d predict that happens in 2013 unless the situation is somehow resolved before then or other more pressing needs emerge. But this year the aim seems extremely clear – and who’d bet against the end-product being a much improved pass rush for the Seahawks in 2012?

Updated mock draft: 1st March

March 1, 2012 / Rob Staton

The combine is in the books and it’s time to take stock on where we’re at with less than two months to go until the 2012 draft. I want to offer three thoughts today, starting with this week’s projection:

– Many people are tired of seeing Courtney Upshaw mocked to the Seahawks. However, there’s no point deliberately manufacturing situations that have no chance of happening. This team is zoning in on pass rushers and will almost certainly have the opportunity to draft one of the big three – Upshaw, Melvin Ingram and Quinton Coples. While speculation is rife about the Seahawks making a splash on Mario Williams, we have to remember that Pete Carroll and John Schneider are on the record for saying they’ll build this team through the draft. That means a pass rusher in round one, with only one obvious wild-card alternative (a certain Alabama running back, who is too good to pass if available at #12). No offensive lineman. No wide receivers. Sadly, no quarterbacks. This will be a situation where a need (pass rush) fits supply (defensive end) and the Seahawks aren’t exactly hiding their intentions.

– The Rams will trade the #2 pick, otherwise known as the rights to Robert Griffin III. Several teams interviewed the Baylor quarterback at the combine, but the Seahawks did not. Many wondered whether this was a sign of secret interest, comparable to Mike Shanahan’s stealth pursuit of Jay Cutler in 2006. That is categorically not the case and Seattle will not be trading with St. Louis. The situation is like poker – the Rams have a great hand and they’re looking to draw others in to increase the pot. The more people at the table, the higher the stakes. The Seahawks have no interest in helping St. Louis drive up the price. Cleveland, Washington and Miami are all reported to have discussed a possible trade and the more teams willing to fight over Griffin’s services, the higher the price becomes. An inter-division trade was never realistic and simply won’t happen, so walking out of the casino is Seattle’s best move. They’ve left the table – not interviewing Griffin III was a statement to the rest of the league. St. Louis are still going to get a great deal, but at least the Seahawks won’t be making it any sweeter.

– Various sources are talking up Peyton Manning and Matt Flynn to Seattle, but I understand interest is minimal and virtually non-existent in both players. For several weeks now we’ve suggested keeping an eye on the trade market for a deal that isn’t abundantly obvious. What we know is Manning’s eventual destination could be the catalyst for a trade which would see another current starting quarterback move to Seattle. Before everyone jumps to conclusions and assumes Mark Sanchez, we also understand the team in question isn’t one which has been heavily touted in the media as a suitor for Manning. The deal is far from probable, rather just possible – and will depend on a.) Manning’s health and b.) where he signs. There’s no guarantee that a deal will get done, indeed it’s been described as more unlikely than likely. However, it’s worth noting that the Seahawks will be trying to upgrade the position this off-season even though they may not draft a quarterback in the first three rounds.

Onto this week’s mock draft. I’ve included a second round in the projection.

Round one


	#1 Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford) Indianapolis will need to work out a way to build around Luck, and fast. This is a roster starting from scratch.


	TRADE #2 Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor) The Rams are trading this pick, the only question is whether Griffin III will be a Brown or a Redskin.


	#3 Matt Kalil (OT, USC) Minnesota won’t waste any time calling Kalil’s name. He has elite potential.


	TRADE #4 Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State) I wouldn’t take Blackmon this early, but the Rams need a playmaker more than anything else.


	#5 Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU) Linebacker and cornerback are the two biggest needs on this team, but they must be tempted by Trent Richardson too.


	#6 Ryan Tannehill (QB, Texas A&M) If the Redskins don’t trade up, it’s hard to see them drifting into another year without some long term thinking at quarterback.


	#7 Melvin Ingram (DE, South Carolina) The Jaguars need to improve their pass rush and will have the pick of Ingram, Upshaw and Coples.


	#8 Riley Reiff (OT, Iowa) The Dolphins will pursue Peyton Manning and Matt Flynn and could look to improve their offensive line to support such a move.


	#9 Dontari Poe (DT, Memphis) Players who weigh 345lbs and move as well as Poe don’t last long on draft day. Carolina will transition to more 3-4 looks.


	#10 Quinton Coples (DE, North Carolina) Moving to a 4-3 defense makes Coples a solid fit here. The Bills desperately need to improve their pass rush.


	#11 Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama) Richardson is too talented to keep falling and if he drops out of the top ten, he probably won’t get past Kansas City and Seattle.


	#12 Courtney Upshaw (DE, Alabama) People are sick of seeing this projection, but in this situation it would be a certainty. I’m not going to project scenarios that won’t happen.


	#13 Cordy Glenn (OT, Georgia) Glenn showcased enough athleticism at the combine to suggest he can stay at tackle at the next level. He’s rising in a big way.


	#14 David De Castro (OG, Stanford) Dallas could attack the corner market in free agency, allowing them to target Glenn or De Castro at this spot.


	#15 Luke Kuechly (LB, Boston College) Andy Reid has avoided drafting linebackers in the past, but may play it safe here and fill a position of need.


	#16 Andre Branch (DE, Clemson) New York needs to improve it’s pass rush. Branch has a ton of potential and can transition to the 3-4.


	#17 Zach Brown (LB, North Carolina) Explosive athlete who will convince a team early in the draft that he’s worth a high pick.


	#18 Jonathan Martin (OT, Stanford) The Chargers need to find pass rushers, but they also need to rebuild their offensive line. This would be a good start.


	#19 Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame) Floyd’s combine performance was good enough to confirm his likely position within the first round.


	#20 Nick Perry (DE, USC) Tennessee are another team that has to look at the edge rushers. The tape doesn’t always match Perry’s excellent combine performance.


	#21 Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama) Tall, physical cornerback who specialises in run support but his coverage skills need work.


	TRADE #22 Michael Brockers (DT, LSU) St. Louis has some edge rush talent but they don’t have a space clogger in the middle. Brockers could be BPA at this stage.


	#23 Stephon Gilmore (CB, South Carolina) A smart performance at the combine will promote Gilmore’s stock into the bottom half of round one.


	#24 Mike Adams (OT, Ohio State) There are some legitimate concerns about Adams’ play, but Pittsburgh may take a chance.


	#25 Mark Barron (S, Alabama) He could go much earlier than this, but positional need could lead to a slight drop. Denver could use a talented young safety.


	#26 Stephen Hill (WR, Georgia Tech) He’s a tremendous athlete who makes spectacular plays. It’s more than combine hype that puts Hill in round one contention.


	#27 Peter Konz (C, Wisconsin) Nick Mangold, Alex Mack and Peter Konz. That’s how good Konz is leaving college.


	#28 Whitney Mercilus (DE, Illinois) He proved in Indianapolis that he has the physical attributes to match his mass-production in 2011.


	#29 Kendall Wright (WR, Baylor) Wright could drop a bit after running slow times. San Francisco won’t care – they’ll find ways to max-out his talent in different ways.


	#30 Dont’a Hightower (LB, Alabama) The very definition of a defensive player who fits in Baltimore. A tough football player, simple as that.


	#31 Casey Hayward (CB, Vanderbilt) Bill Belichick likes to draft defensive backs early and he could entertain another cornerback with this pick.


	#32 Fletcher Cox (DT, Mississippi State) A great athlete who might fall due to needs elsewhere. A tough player to project, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he went in the top-15.

Round two

#33 St. Louis – Kevin Zeitler (OG, Wisconsin)
#34 Indianapolis – Alameda Ta’amu (DT, Washington)
#35 Minnesota – Kelechi Osemele (OG, Iowa State)
#36 Tampa Bay – Lamar Miller (RB, Miami)
#37 Cleveland – Rueben Randle (WR, LSU)
#38 Jacksonville – Jayron Hosley (CB, Virgnina Tech)
#39 Washington – Dwight Jones (WR, North Carolina)
#40 Carolina – Mychal Kendricks (LB, California)
#41 Buffalo – Ronnell Lewis (LB, Oklahoma)
#42 Miami – Chandler Jones (DE, Syracuse)
#43 Seattle – Doug Martin (RB, Boise State)
#44 Kansas City – Kirk Cousins (QB, Michigan State)
#45 Dallas – Jared Crick (DE, Wisconsin)
#46 Philadelphia – Brock Osweiler (QB, Arizona State)
#47 New York Jets – Alshon Jeffery (WR, South Carolina)
#48 New England – Vinny Curry (DE, Marshall)
#49 San Diego – Shea McClellin (DE, Boise State)
#50 Chicago – Jerel Worthy (DT, Michigan State)
#51 Philadelphia – Brandon Thompson (DT Clemson)
#52 Tennessee – Brandon Boykin (CB, Georgia)
#53 Cincinnati – Mohamed Sanu (WR, Rutgers)
#54 Detroit – Brandon Washington (OG, Miami)
#55 Atlanta – Orson Charles (TE, Georgia)
#56 Pittsburgh – Bobby Wagner (LB, Utah State)
#57 Denver – David Wilson (RB, Virginia Tech)
#58 Houston – Josh Chapman (DT, Alabama)
#59 New Orleans – Sean Spence (LB, Miami)
#60 Green Bay – Devon Still (DT, Penn State)
#61 Baltimore – Harrison Smith (S, Notre Dame)
#62 San Francisco – Coby Fleener (TE, Stanford)
#63 New York Giants – Dwayne Allen (TE, Clemson)
#64 New England – Janoris Jenkins (CB, North Alabama)

Updated mock draft: 22nd February

February 22, 2012 / Rob Staton

In this week’s projection I wanted to contemplate the potential impact of the scouting combine, with work-outs beginning on Saturday. Who could rise? Who could fall? Will we see any significant changes when players have been tested and interviewed in Indianapolis?

I’ve already discussed the possibility that Zach Brown could be set for a boost after he tests at the combine – Fletcher Cox (DT, Mississippi State) may also surge up boards after he works out on Monday. Cox plays like a runaway train – he can be off-balance, but he’s all power and speed and can play both off the edge and inside in 4-3 and 3-4 looks. He’ll be listed above 300lbs but could run a surprisingly fast forty-yard dash for his size, potentially pushing him to the front of the class for interior defensive lineman.

Melvin Ingram, Quinton Coples and Courtney Upshaw are all jostling for position with all three likely to be drafted within the first sixteen picks. Ingram is expected to make the greatest impression as he’s clearly the most agile and will easily record the best forty-time. Coples and Upshaw can stay ahead of Ingram on a lot of draft boards by running respectable times and performing well in other drills. This is a big opportunity for Ingram, though.

Other players will emerge that have so far not been considered likely first round options. Rueben Randle (WR, LSU) was a victim of the Tigers’ offense and has a lot of pro-skills. He can jump ahead of several prospects with a good performance in Indianapolis and that element of unknown – and potential – could work in his favor. New England likes to draft defensive backs early and Casey Hayward (CB, Vanderbilt) could be a name to keep an eye on in the back end of round one.

Dre Kirkpatrick and Devon Still could be set for a fall. Alabama’s Kirkpatrick isn’t a great cover corner and his reputation is largely based on size, run support and hard-hitting. He was exploited by Florida’s John Brantley (not exactly a prolific SEC quarterback) and may not show the kind of fluid hips and straight line speed to warrant some of the inflated reviews he’s received in the last few months. Still hasn’t got the same high ceiling as a Michael Brockers or Fletcher Cox and could fall victim to need. He’s already a fifth-year senior with some previous injury history and teams may feel he’s already peaked and doesn’t possess enough upside to warrant a high first round selection.

I’ve maintained the trade touted in last week’s mock because I think it’s increasingly likely we’ll see a deal which will make Robert Griffin III the #2 pick. The most obvious trade partner is Cleveland, who would surrender their two first round choices to take the Baylor quarterback. Last week I looked at St. Louis going OT/WR with their new picks, this week it’s WR/OC. The center position is taking on an increasingly important role in the NFL and Peter Konz is an underrated prospect coming out of Wisconsin. Don’t be surprised if the Rams look to boost their interior with a pick like this. Will they take Blackmon at #4? It really depends on how they grade Riley Reiff, Mike Adams and Jonathan Martin. If they don’t see an offensive lineman worth the #4 pick, Blackmon has a shot.

As for the Seahawks – nothing much has changed. They’re still out of range for the top two quarterbacks, still needing to focus on their second biggest need at defensive end and still relying on which players leave the board before their pick to dictate the selection. Upshaw is the least likely to impress at the combine, but I suspect he’ll maintain a high grade on many boards and could easily be a top-ten pick. The trio of Ingram, Upshaw and Coples really could go in any order – making Seattle’s choice at #11 or #12 a question mark right up until Buffalo’s pick is called.

Updated first round mock draft


	#1 Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford) The Colts might as well call the pick in now. Indianapolis will draft Andrew Luck. No trade offer will change that.


	TRADE #2 Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor) Cleveland would need to part with both first round picks to draft RGIII. It appears likely some form of deal will take place here.


	#3 Matt Kalil (OT, USC) This would be a dream for the Vikings. They get a left tackle with elite potential.


	TRADE #4 Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma St) If Blackmon is going to go this early, he’ll need a good performance at the combine. This might be too high for the Rams.


	#5 Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama) You have to believe Greg Schiano would love to draft Trent Richardson. Cornerback is also a need, so Claiborne is an alternative.


	#6 Ryan Tannehill (QB, Texas A&M) This would be a foolish reach but Shanahan wants his guy. If Tannehill really is going to go in the top-15 as speculated, Washington is the obvious choice.


	#7 Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU) Assuming the Jaguars attack the market for receivers in free agency, Gene Smith can concentrate on defense.


	#8 Fletcher Cox (DT, Mississippi State) Carolina wants to use a lot of different defensive looks and Cox is scheme versatile. He could light up the combine.


	#9 Melvin Ingram (DE, South Carolina) A blistering forty yard dash could push Ingram up the boards. Right tackle is another likely target area.


	#10 Quinton Coples (DE, North Carolina) The Bills could switch to a 4-3 and that makes Coples rather than Upshaw or Ingram a more likely pick here.


	#11 Courtney Upshaw (DE, Alabama) This could be Seattle’s ideal situation. Upshaw would have an instant impact, balancing out the pass rush with Chris Clemons.


	#12 David DeCastro (OG, Stanford) This is a little high for me, but Scott Pioli will almost certainly like DeCastro and he has a little Logan Mankins about him.


	#13 Riley Reiff (OT, Iowa) Reiff is a solid, blue-collar lineman. But is he spectacular enough to go in the top 5-10?


	#14 Janoris Jenkins (CB, North Alabama) Jerry Jones wants to rebuild his secondary. Jenkins is the best corner available, but needs to prove off-field issues are in the past.


	#15 Michael Brockers (DT, LSU) Philly should do what it takes to keep DeSean Jackson grounded, then set out to draft the BPA. It could be Brockers.


	#16 Kendall Wright (WR, Baylor) The Jets need pass rushers but will be hard pushed to pass on the electrifying Wright to boost that stagnant offense.


	#17 Zach Brown (LB, North Carolina) Brown could be set for a big jump after the combine. Cincinnati could solidify their defense with two first round picks.


	#18 Jonathan Martin (OT, Stanford) Martin could suffer a fall if there isn’t an early run on offensive tackles. San Diego would get a bargain here.


	#19 Rueben Randle (WR, LSU) Randle struggled for an impact in LSU’s offense but he has a lot of tools to be a success at the next level.


	#20 Mark Barron (S, Alabama) Safety is a need for Tennessee and Barron is clearly the best available in this draft class.


	#21 Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama) I don’t expect a big performance at the combine, which will put Kirkpatrick’s inflated stock into perspective.


	TRADE #22 Peter Konz (C, Wisconsin) A surprise choice, but the center position is growing in importance in the NFL. Konz has tons of potential and would be a fine pick.


	#23 Cordy Glenn (OG, Georgia) Glenn could play right tackle or move to guard. This would be a good fit for Detroit, even if they have greater needs.


	#24 Mike Adams (OT, Ohio State) This is the domino effect on a quiet left tackle market early in the draft. Pittsburgh need to bolster their offensive line.


	#25 Luke Kuechly (LB, Boston College) He’s under sized but what a tackler – he’ll get close to 100 tackles in year one. Kuechly will also provide needed vocal leadership.


	#26 Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame) The Texans saw life without Andre Johnson and might add another receiver as insurance.


	#27 Casey Hayward (CB, Vanderbilt) Hayward could move into this range if he performs well at the combine. New England loves to draft defensive backs.


	#28 Vinny Curry (DE, Marshall) He has the production and enough power – he has a lot to gain at the combine by flashing mobility and speed.


	#29 Mohamed Sanu (WR, Rutgers) Sanu can line up anywhere and make plays. San Francisco use a lot of gimmicks and needs a sure-handed catcher.


	#30 Dont’a Hightower (LB, Alabama) The type of player that just fits in with Baltimore’s defense. This would be a fantastic addition for the Ravens.


	#31 Devon Still (DT, Penn State) It comes down to upside and teams early in round one may be put off by an average ceiling.


	#32 Sean Spence (LB, Miami) Underrated linebacker who makes up for a lack of great size with speed, instinct, tackling and elite recognition skills.

Updated mock draft: 15th February

February 15, 2012 / Rob Staton

This week I’m going to go against my better judgement and project a trade. It’s unavoidable. There’s a feeling within some front offices that Robert Griffin III won’t get out of the top three picks, even if that means he’s selected by the Minnesota Vikings. Teams with an eye on RGIII will have to weigh up how much they’re willing to spend to deal with St. Louis or Minnesota. I suspect it’ll take something special to get the #2 pick because the Rams will essentially be turning down the opportunity to draft Matt Kalil. St. Louis needs a deal that makes it worth their while – not in the future, but for now.

For those reasons I suspect Cleveland could be an appealing trade partner, with the Browns packaging their two first round picks to move up. This would afford the Rams the opportunity to fill two needs in round one and only suffer a small move down the board from #2 to #4. Cleveland recently appointed Brad Childress as offensive coordinator – a coach who has predominantly worked with mobile quarterbacks during his time with Andy Reid and at Minnesota. The Browns’ rebuild under Mike Holmgren has been slow progress so far, but Griffin III could rejuvenate the team and the fans in Cleveland. For St. Louis, they’d still have a chance to grab a much needed addition to the offensive line and draft a wide receiver later in the first round.

Whether such a move actually happens, we’ll have to wait and see. However, it seems increasingly likely Griffin III will be drafted in the top three. Those hoping the Seahawks will make a bold move to address the quarterback position will be left disappointed – Seattle isn’t going to trade up for a quarterback this year and are unlikely to address the position in round one.

A St. Louis/Cleveland trade could be the catalyst for an offensive-minded start to the draft. Tampa Bay would be in an ideal situation choosing between Morris Claiborne (they need to improve their secondary) and Trent Richardson (a potentially defining player for Greg Schiano’s run-centric system). By the time Jacksonville are on the clock, we may not see a defensive player off the board. That wouldn’t be a bad thing for the Seahawks, who appear determined to improve their pass rush early in this draft.

A lot is still to be determined by free agency and the combine which starts next week. Several players will shoot up the boards after the event in Indianapolis and keep an eye out for North Carolina’s Zach Brown. Sources tell us there’s a feeling that Brown could really propel his stock at the combine due to his overall athleticism and straight line speed. He’s broken sprinting records at UNC and could be set for a big leap, certainly into contention within the first twelve picks. In terms of free agency, Washington and Miami are both expected to be aggressive in the quarterback market. That could dictate what direction they go in round one. For example – if the Dolphins sign Peyton Manning, they could be inclined to go heavy on the offensive line to protect their investment.

Updated first round mock draft


	#1 Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford) The Colts are cleaning house to make room for the Andrew Luck era. They might as well start talking about a contract now.


	TRADE #2 Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor) Cleveland would need to part with both first round picks to draft RGIII. Would St. Louis pass on a shot at Matt Kalil?


	#3 Matt Kalil (OT, USC) This would be a dream for the Vikings. They avoid any awkward QB situations with Griffin/Ponder and take a left tackle with elite potential.


	TRADE #4 Riley Reiff (OT, Iowa) St. Louis softens the blow of trading out of Matt Kalil-range by drafting Reiff and adding a receiver later in round one.


	#5 Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama) You have to believe Greg Schiano would love to draft Trent Richardson. Cornerback is also a need, so Claiborne is an alternative.


	#6 Ryan Tannehill (QB, Texas A&M) This would be a foolish reach but Shanahan wants his guy. If Tannehill really is going to go in the top-15 as speculated, Washington is the obvious choice.


	#7 Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU) Assuming the Jaguars attack the market for receivers in free agency, Gene Smith can concentrate on defense.


	#8 Devon Still (DT, Penn State) Carolina wants to use a lot of different defensive looks and Still is scheme versatile. This is a big need for the Panthers.


	#9 Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State) Which team bites if Blackmon starts to fall? Joe Philbin worked in a Green Bay offense that was stacked at receiver.


	#10 Quinton Coples (DE, North Carolina) The Bills could switch to a 4-3 and that makes Coples rather than Upshaw or Ingram a more likely pick here.


	#11 Courtney Upshaw (DE, Alabama) This could be Seattle’s ideal situation. Upshaw would have an instant impact, balancing out the pass rush with Chris Clemons.


	#12 David DeCastro (OG, Stanford) This is a little high for me, but Scott Pioli will almost certainly like DeCastro and he has a little Logan Mankins about him.


	#13 Jonathan Martin (OT, Stanford) The Cardinals need to upgrade their offensive line. The only question here is – would they prefer Jonathan Martin or Mike Adams?


	#14 Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama) He’s better in run support and his coverage skills are nothing to write home about. However, Jerry Jones seems to like corner’s with size.


	#15 Michael Brockers (DT, LSU) Andy Reid doesn’t like drafting linebackers, so he might consider taking a chance on Brockers’ potential.


	#16 Melvin Ingram (DE, South Carolina) The Jets pass rush went a bit flat in 2011. Ingram could be moved around in the 3-4 and give things a jump start.


	#17 Zach Brown (LB, North Carolina) Brown could be set for a big jump after the combine. Cincinnati could solidify their defense with two first round picks.


	#18 Mike Adams (OT, Ohio State) San Diego could look to upgrade their pass rush, but that offensive line also needs help.


	#19 Kendall Wright (WR, Baylor) Electric receiver who would quickly become Jay Cutler’s BFF. Capable of having a big impact quickly.


	#20 Mark Barron (S, Alabama) Safety is a need for Tennessee and Barron is clearly the best available in this draft class.


	#21 Janoris Jenkins (CB, North Alabama) Corner with elite potential, hampered by off-field concerns. Cincinnati has a reputation for dishing out second chances.


	TRADE #22 Dwight Jones (WR, North Carolina) The second pick courtesy of St. Louis’ trade with Cleveland. The Rams take an underrated receiver to help out Sam Bradford.


	#23 Cordy Glenn (OT, Georgia) Glenn could play right tackle or move to guard. This would be a good fit for Detroit, even if they have greater needs.


	#24 Kelechi Osemele (OG, Iowa State) Played left tackle at Iowa State but will kick inside to guard at the next level. I really like this guy.


	#25 Luke Kuechly (LB, Boston College) He’s under sized but what a tackler – he’ll get close to 100 tackles in year one. Kuechly will also provide needed vocal leadership.


	#26 Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame) The Texans saw life without Andre Johnson and might add another receiver as insurance.


	#27 Peter Konz (C, Wisconsin) Top-end interior lineman who could be the best in this class. Stuck out on a talented Badgers line and no surprise he turned pro.


	#28 Fletcher Cox (DT, Mississippi State) The Packers could look at outside rushers, but Cox is capable of helping the pass rush from the five-technique position.


	#29 Mohamed Sanu (WR, Rutgers) Sanu can line up anywhere and make plays. San Francisco use a lot of gimmicks and needs a sure-handed catcher.


	#30 Dont’a Hightower (LB, Alabama) The type of player that just fits in with Baltimore’s defense. This would be a fantastic addition for the Ravens.


	#31 Chandler Jones (DE, Syracuse) A raw physical talent with plenty of upside. The Patriots are a hard team to project and have multiple options in this slot.


	#32 Sean Spence (LB, Miami) Underrated linebacker who makes up for a lack of great size with speed, instinct, tackling and elite recognition skills.

Category: Featured (Page 4 of 11)

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Updated mock draft: 14th March

Thoughts on the STL-WASH trade

Updated mock draft: 7th March

The case for why Peyton Manning won’t be a Seahawk

Why Seattle will continue to build through the draft

Updated mock draft: 1st March

Updated mock draft: 22nd February

Updated mock draft: 15th February

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