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I was told Seahawks Twitter had become a little hysterical with the team’s inactivity in free agency. I discovered it for myself when posting that I thought they were doing the right thing.

Apparently the sky is falling. But it isn’t.

So what if Patrick Queen signed for the Steelers? Have we forgotten that up until Mike Macdonald became defensive coordinator in Baltimore, he was considered a bust? Granted, the arrival of Roquan Smith also helped. But this is a player who, by all accounts, has had a lot of assistance to reach a decent payday in free agency. They haven’t just let peak Bobby Wagner go to the Steelers.

A whole bunch of guards have signed elsewhere for enormous salaries. None of them feel like Joe Thuney level free agents. Did anyone really want the Seahawks to spend $20m on Robert Hunt or $16m on a player like Kevin Dotson, who the Rams acquired in a dirt cheap trade a year ago?

Several other players touted as targets (although who knows if they actually were) have gone elsewhere, such as Geno Stone and Jeremy Chinn. Were they really going to make a big impact in 2024? Can Chinn even play at a reasonable level any more, given his dramatic decline in Carolina and lack of interest from Ejiro Evero in making him a part of the future there?

Then there’s the players departing. Most would agree Macdonald did well with the linebackers in Baltimore. Yet he, and the people who invested a first round pick in Jordyn Brooks previously, have decided the contract he signed in Miami wasn’t worth bettering. It seems very few people are willing to trust John Schneider and Macdonald on this decision. Why?

Meanwhile, necessary cuts have been made to get out of overly expensive, bad value contracts. Seattle’s ability to spend is hampered by the fact they’re eating $31m in dead money for Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams this year. They’re taking the short-term hit to feel the benefit next year. That comes with a consequence.

Here’s another reality. Even with the Tyler Lockett restructure, they only have between $8-15m available to spend as a rough estimate. That might mean 2-3 cheapish players. They’re not in a position to spend $5m on a Willie Gay type who, if we’re being honest, was basically a role player in Kansas City.

People are now questioning why they re-signed Leonard Williams and Noah Fant if they’re so restricted. What if both are viewed as critical components for the next 2-3 years or beyond? What if they are perfect fits in terms of talent and character for the new staff? Are you going to let them walk in favour of collecting the Chinn’s, Gay’s and others instead?

Is it really such a bad thing to pay market value for Williams, a player they clearly value? And won’t it be exciting to see what Macdonald can do with him, given the way he worked production out of Justin Madubuike?

Here’s the list of pressures registered by players lining up at three-technique in 2023:

Justin Madubuike — 38
Leonard Williams — 30
Javon Hargrave — 30
Chris Jones — 28
Zach Allen — 27

Haven’t they been looking for that kind of player for a long time?

It’s day two of free agency. Players are still available. Maybe not the players you wanted but that’s OK. Do you think Ravens fans jumped for joy when they signed Kyle Van Noy a year ago for $1.4m? He produced nine sacks. Sometimes it’s the highly motivated, snubbed free agent who produces more than the over-paid average talent on an extortionate deal.

Plus, I keep hearing what a bad draft it is at linebacker and safety (typically from people who haven’t studied the class at all). Admittedly, neither position is ‘loaded’ in this draft. There are still good players to be had though.

It’s possible Junior Colson can’t be reached and Payton Wilson’s injury record keeps him off your board (maybe). There’s still Cedric Gray, Trevin Wallace, Jeremiah Trotter, Ty’ron Hopper and Nathaniel Watson who I’d suggest have starting potential at the next level at a very affordable draft range.

I’d even argue in the later rounds, there are linebackers who are going to be available who aren’t totally hopeless. There’s potential here, there just aren’t any first rounders.

I like this safety class. I think Tyler Nubin, Javon Bullard, Malik Mustapha and Dadrion Taylor-Demerson all have plus starter potential. Bullard will go in round two but the others — who I think all deserve round two grades — get projected anywhere from rounds 2-5. There’s value to be had here. Then there’s the next tier which for me includes Jaden Hicks, Kitan Oladapo and Dominique Hampton — plus others who could provide value on day three.

This isn’t a lost cause. It’s actually better for the Seahawks to have more options in rounds 3-5 at these positions than the class be front-loaded at the top end and everyone have a bunch of names to discuss that they’re familiar with.

Finally, offensive linemen. It’s the best O-line class in years. Where’s the panic? They’ll have options at #16. They’ll have options if they trade down in round one. There’s a great big thick list of linemen for the middle rounds. There are players who could be there in rounds 4-5 with starter potential. On Michigan’s pro-style, Championship winning line alone you’ve got six players in this class and I’d argue three of them are really good prospects.

I actually think this draft class matches up with Seattle’s current needs rather nicely. They can seek value in the veteran market and then go and get good players in the draft. After that, they can circle back to the veteran market and go bargain hunting again.

They have the flexibility with this draft to do their due diligence on the quarterbacks (and they seem to be, Ryan Grubb was at Bo Nix’s pro-day today). If they want to take one — they’ll still be able to address O-line, safety and linebacker. Or, if they pass on the quarterbacks, that just frees up their high pick for the trenches.

This is how they should be operating. Keep and retain what you consider your ‘core’. Look for value on the open market. Keep searching for that all important X-factor player at quarterback. Once you find that individual, on a rookie contract, you can strike in free agency to build a contender.

Until you get to that point, though, the Seahawks just need to keep building. They need to avoid bad contracts. At the moment, it seems like that’s exactly what they’re doing.

Less panic and more patience should be the order of the day.

A final quick reminder — this team still has a collection of well-drafted younger players who could really benefit from a new coaching staff getting to work with them. It’s far more exciting to imagine the potential leaps taken by Boye Mafe, Derick Hall, Charles Cross, Tariq Woolen, Ken Walker, Zach Charbonnet, Devon Witherspoon, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cam Young, Anthony Bradford and others — not to mention possible growth from the likes of D.K. Metcalf — than it is to stress about who plays linebacker and safety in 2024, two days into free agency.

Meanwhile, they could find the future at quarterback in this draft — or they could set up the O-line for years to come. Finally — consider that we’re going to see something different in 2024. New coaches, new, fresh ideas. There’s a lot to be optimistic about.

If you missed my article earlier considering Seattle’s approach to the offensive line, check it out here.

File this in the thinking out loud cabinet for now — but could the way the Rams have re-worked their offensive line influence the Seahawks?

This article in the Athletic outlines Sean McVay’s schematic transition over the last couple of years. The gist is, McVay ran an outside-zone run scheme and meshed it with a lot of play-action. They focused on cheaper, more mobile/athletic linemen for the system.

In 2022 they had a starting line of Brian Allen, Austin Corbett, Rob Havenstein, David Edwards and Joseph Noteboom. Only Havenstein had any serious size. The two guards — Edwards and Corbett — were converted tackles. Allen was an undersized center. None of the players were big-money investments or high draft picks.

Jourdan Rodrigue writes in the Athletic article that, “McVay’s run game became increasingly one-dimensional after the departure of Todd Gurley in 2019. The Rams went from the top of the NFL in production there to near the bottom.” Rodrigue also notes a ‘finesse’ reputation had been developed. Thus, McVay decided to make drastic changes.

Per Rodrigue:

So in spring and summer 2023, McVay committed to adjusting his scheme to feature more gap- and man-blocking concepts — a favorite run became “duo” — with plenty of motion and sifting from tight ends and receivers (they still ran mid- and outside-zone as well, mixing horizontal stretch with downhill power), and GM Les Snead committed to the type of personnel up front it would take to run the more physical plays.

Here’s what that means. They drafted Steve Avila in round two a year ago, he’s 332lbs. He’ll convert to center next season. They traded for and subsequently spent big money on Kevin Dotson, who is 321lbs. They just paid a sizeable sum to Jonah Jackson, who is 311lbs. Rob Havenstein, the right tackle, is 330lbs. Alaric Jackson, who started at left tackle last year, is 330lbs.

That’s an enormous O-line. The Rams have certainly committed to varying their scheme. It makes me wonder if the Seahawks will do something similar.

Now, it’s worth repeating what we’ve already said about the current staff in Seattle. Washington, under Ryan Grubb and Scott Huff, preferred smaller, more athletic centers. The Ravens, where Mike Macdonald coached defense, drafted a similar undersized center in the first round in 2022 (Tyler Linderbaum). The Seahawks have also favoured smaller centers the last two years in Austin Blythe, Evan Brown and Olu Oluwatimi.

However, the Seahawks have faced similar problems to the Rams. They’ve also earned a ‘finesse’ tag, along with — if we’re being honest — ‘incapable’. The run game has collapsed.

They have just appointed Jake Peetz from the Rams to be their passing game coordinator, which suggests they are conscious of what McVay is doing in LA. He’s obviously not involved in the run game but he might share some of McVay’s ideas from last season with Grubb and Huff.

Again, it’s worth noting what Huff had in Washington. There were too very athletic tackles who weren’t massive in size. They had a center listed at 275lbs. The two guards were 327lbs and 311lbs. It would be a pivot to now mimic LA and bring in a monster O-line.

That said, prospective starting right guard Anthony Bradford is 332lbs. There are other accomplished interior offensive linemen in this draft who are in that size range. For example, I’ve been saying Jackson Powers-Johnson might be less likely to land in Seattle than elsewhere because he’s 330lbs. If the Seahawks were leaning towards copying the Rams, though, he would fit the size profile.

So my point really is I’m going to be more open minded about what they might do. It’s not out of the realms of possibility they copy the Rams and go for size. This is a copycat league, after all. Plus the Rams ran well against Mike Macdonald’s Baltimore defense last season — producing 128 yards on the ground.

At the moment, short of any unexpected big splash in free agency, I’d think everything points towards the Seahawks focusing on three possible areas in the draft — quarterback, O-line and pass rusher. If they see a potential long term franchise QB, that has to be a firm focus. That might be tricky with the top-three teams positioning themselves to go QB, with the Giants, Vikings, Broncos and Raiders also in the market. If a quarterback isn’t possible, selecting the best O-liner or pass rusher at #16 (or after trading down) feels a near certainty.

After reading about the Rams, and acknowledging how much Grubb has already talked about creating a line that’ll beat people up in the trenches, it stands to reason the Seahawks might also seek to get bigger and more bullying on their offensive line.

The Seahawks have shown great restraint on the first day of free agency. Despite creating a decent chunk of cap space, they’ve resisted the temptation to waste most of it on elite contracts for non-elite players.

Here’s where the Seahawks are. They don’t have a young franchise quarterback, drafted to produce hope and belief for years to come. They don’t have a top-tier difference making pass rusher. Until they find those two things, it’s absolutely pointless bringing in bad contracts to eat up your cap space. This is a team in transition and we just have to embrace it.

It might provide a dopamine hit to see they’ve spent $20m a year on a player. In two years you may well be looking at Over The Cap to see how much it’ll take to cut that player and whether you can live with the dead money.

This is the fools gold period of the NFL. The Seahawks have had enough bad contracts over the years. They’re constantly eating dead money for one reason or another. It was ridiculous that they ended up on the hook for $48.1m for Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams and now they get to live with $31m of their 2024 cap going on both players to play elsewhere.

They are far better off looking for low-commitment, development deals at this time. Look at the work Mike Macdonald did in Baltimore. He got great seasons out of Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy. He helped turn Justin Madubuike and Patrick Queen into top performers. The Ravens had to cycle through defensive backs and still found success. Geno Stone was hailed by the GM as Baltimore’s best ever seventh round pick — thanks to Macdonald’s guidance.

The Seahawks are better off letting him do his thing in 2024. Take a few low-cost shots. Make calculated moves. Maybe you can hit on some players you wish to extend in 12 months to longer, bigger deals? For now though, what’s the point in splurging?

Look at the guard market. Robert Hunt’s contract looks like it’s basically $20m a year. Kevin Dotson earns $16m a year now. That’s Dotson, by the way, who the Rams acquired for a ham sandwich a year ago. Part of Seattle’s problem in the trenches is a total inability to get players performing or elevating beyond expectations. Scott Huff needs to be able to deliver that, they can’t just throw money at the problem.

It’s also a fantastic O-line draft full of guards you can well imagine coming in and performing at a good standard quickly. That’s not just for the first two rounds either — there are attractive mid/late round alternatives too.

I’m not against spending. Getting Leonard Williams back on a reasonable deal for a soon-to-be 30-year-old non-elite player would be very welcome.

I’m not really bothered that Jordyn Brooks has signed for $10m a year in Miami. Again, he was only ever decent, not great in Seattle. Is that worth $30m over three seasons?

I’ll come back to my original point. Until you have the key facets of a contending team on the roster, free agency feels like a dance worth sitting out. The Seahawks are two years removed from the Russell Wilson trade. They need to identify a quarterback who can lead them to future contention and they need to go and get that player. They also need to do what the Chiefs and others have done and find a difference making pass rusher without picking in the top-five.

Every time I mention this, I’m obliged to qualify how difficult these two things are. I get it. But this is the only way to contend. You get a young franchise quarterback, you give them weapons (they have weapons), you give them protection (this needs work) and you need a game-wrecker on defense. If you can’t get those things, then you’re one of the many teams making up the numbers.

The first phase of free agency is just a wallet-lightening session for very rich people running NFL teams. The Seahawks’ priority has to be the draft. They need to find where that next Chris Jones or Maxx Crosby or T.J. Watt is lurking in this class. They need to ask whether any of these quarterbacks can be ‘the guy’ and if the answer is yes, it’s time to be aggressive.

In the meantime, Huff and Ryan Grubb need to put together a line and when you have the franchise QB in place — by all means spend away.

It’s all about the draft. It’s all about a quarterback and a difference making defender. In free agency, stick to looking for value and let your whizkid defensive coach elevate low-cost players the way he did in Baltimore.

Edit — The Seahawks are re-signing Noah Fant. There’s definitely a player in Fant and hopefully the new offensive staff can get more out of a tight end. Very comfortable with this signing and the terms.

Edit #2 — Leonard Williams is also staying in Seattle. It’s costing $21.5m a year. I like Williams. Defensive tackle is a difficult position to fill. The market rate for a player of his level is about what he has received. I’m intrigued to see what Mike Macdonald can do with him. I don’t have a problem with this signing. And this stat, given he played in a bad defense last season, is encouraging.

There’s only one type of free agent deal worth having. It’s the ‘Bennett and Avril’ type. You get a player who is weirdly underestimated by the league on a cheap contract, they come in and play fantastically well and you wonder how on earth it all happened. This is rare.

Apart from that, free agency is just full of pitfalls and disappointment. The Seahawks will likely not find any serious solutions to any significant problems next week.

Free agency is where second tier (at best) players get first tier contracts. Lesser players come in on cheap deals and fans convince themselves they’ve got a bargain, only to realise that there was a reason all along why that player was available on such a ‘great’ deal.

Fans online will pick their favourites and hope for the dopamine hit that comes with a breaking news alert from Adam Schefter. More often than not, though, they’re out of range in terms of salary and/or they don’t justify their price tag.

A year ago I really wanted the Seahawks to be active in free agency. Looking back, it’s probably because I just wanted some hope as the Pete Carroll era became increasingly stale. When they splashed out on Dre’Mont Jones it was exciting. Look how that panned out in year one.

It’s a reminder that nothing truly gets solved at this time of year. It’s exciting to play matchmaker and see where certain players end up. But unless you’re snagging Chris Jones from the Chiefs, you aren’t adding elite talent. You’re probably just adding a bad contract.

Reflecting on last year has helped shape my thoughts on free agency and team building. I think the only veteran market worth a dime is the trade market. Not expensive trades, either. Calculated deals. The kind that gives the 49ers the NFL’s best left tackle for a mid-round pick and the best running back/swiss army knife in the league. The kind that gives the Seahawks a generational heart and soul playmaker capable of creating seismic activity.

Non-elite picks for blue-chip talent might sound fanciful but it’s amazing how every now and again those opportunities present themselves. Sticking to those types of deal and avoiding the horrendous overpay (see: Jamal Adams, Russell Wilson) or the lousy expensive rental (Sheldon Richardson) is the key.

It’s not even so much for top-level talent. The Browns just took a shot to nothing on Jerry Jeudy, giving the Broncos a ham sandwich to see if their excellent offensive-minded Head Coach can kick-start his career. Previously, they traded a slightly larger ham sandwich to Dallas for Amari Cooper. Those opportunities are out there, they’re low-cost, low-risk, high-upside tosses of the hoop.

I think aggressive trades to push you over the tap are worth considering, provided you have a proper grasp of whether you’re in position to consider it. The Rams, when they dealt for Von Miller, very much were. The Seahawks, overreacting to a three-game losing streak for San Francisco and a fortunate win over the Browns, were very much not in a position to start trading second round picks away last season, only to get blown out by a legit contender (Baltimore) days later.

Other than smart trades, team-building is all about the draft. And you need to have fundamental team building philosophies and targets to set up the kind of teams you need to be successful.

For me, that means the following. You’ve got to find a difference maker at quarterback, give them some weapons and protection. Then you’ve got to find a difference making pass rusher. If you can acquire those ingredients, you can be very competitive. Once you have those key areas filled, you can work around other needs.

At the moment I think the Seahawks only have the weapons box ticked. They need a long term answer at QB. They need better protection. They don’t have a star pass rusher.

I don’t think free agency will provide any answers. This is a draft dilemma for the Seahawks. Their long term quarterback will need to be drafted, possibly after moving up. The interior O-line market has already exploded, with Kevin Dotson getting $16m a year. Good luck acquiring sure-fire solutions there with $33.8m in effective cap space. Pass rushers? Aside from Jones, who’s destined to stay in Kansas City, there isn’t anyone capable of winning you a game.

The Seahawks need to start turning a few singles into grand slam home runs. They’ve had a couple of good drafts, delivering core talent. Yet they need to find some stars in unlikely places, which is incredibly difficult, admittedly, but no less true. They need to find a Maxx Crosby type in round four. They need to go and get that guard in the middle rounds who plays well beyond his draft placing. They need to find their next franchise quarterback.

Chuckling, shrugging and saying, ‘good luck with that’ might be the auto-pilot response — but it’s the only way they’re going to get back into serious contention.

For that reason, I couldn’t care less if the Seahawks spend money next week. If they save money, avoid bad contracts, repair their cap (it’s been broken for too long and littered with bad/dead money) and let the market come to them — that feels like a good idea. You still need to set out to be as competitive as possible and there’s no benefit to being mediocre or bad in year one under Mike Macdonald. Yet if the big personnel additions for the team need to come from the draft and/or opportunistic trades in the future, there’s little sense splurging next week.

That doesn’t mean spending no money either. Leonard Williams is a good football player and bringing him back would be a positive — it just can’t be for a Justin Madubuike contract. It needs to be a deal that chimes with a soon-to-be 30-year-old defensive tackle in the ‘good not great’ category. He needs a ‘good not great’ salary.

Ditto Jordyn Brooks. This is a lousy draft at linebacker. Panicking and throwing money at Brooks and/or Patrick Queen would be an error. Some Seahawks fans might love it — but I don’t think swapping out a bunch of bad money at safety and shifting it to linebacker would be wise.

Big contracts, from now on, need to be reserved for top players — or players with the potential to reach the pinnacle at their respective positions. Prioritise key positions. Third contracts need to be treated with extreme suspicion.

If you can create the structure of quarterback-weapons-protection-pass rusher, you’ll find the overall performance of the team likely elevates, allowing you to ‘fit’ players in. Especially if you have a good staff — and I think most people would agree that the Seahawks now have a good staff.

Thus, I’d sit out the first wave of free agency and a decent chunk of the second and wait for the market to come to Seattle. Opportunity should be the order of the day. I’m not excited for an aggressive tilt at the market.

When I read NFL.com’s list of the top-100 free agents, I started at 100 and worked back. That’s how I’d approach this.

For example, instead of splashing out on Geno Stone — how much will Alohi Gilman cost? He’s #88 on the list but had an 86.1 PFF rating last season. He’s a good tackler, he’s versatile, he has a nose for the ball. PFF projects a two-year contract worth $3.75m a year. That sounds like a deal that could work.

How much would it cost to poach Jordan Fuller from the Rams? He’s #66 on the list and PFF says he could get $4.6m a year on a two-year deal. He’s another good tackler with range and playmaking ability. He’s in the ‘he can do a job’ category at a possible reasonable price range.

Rather than throw big money at Brooks and Queen, what about adding Blake Cashman? His PFF grade was 83.7 in 2023 and he’s projected to earn $4.25m a year for two years. He excelled under DeMeco Ryans. He can rush the passer, he missed only 7% of his tackles (among the best in the league) and his coverage ability is underrated.

The Seahawks need to draft a tight end who can provide value and mismatch opportunities but they also need depth. Rather than splurge to keep Noah Fant, could they just go and get someone like Austin Hooper for a cheap $2m deal to pair with a rookie? He’s 29 and won’t move the needle but again — this feels like a position where they’re going to need to draft someone to save money and try and find an impact skill-set.

If the guard market is exploding, why not try and find a ‘type’ at value? John Simpson hasn’t graded well in Baltimore but he absolutely hammers people. That’s what Ryan Grubb says he wants. Are you prepared to take a hit on overall performance to deliver violence? PFF projects he’ll earn $5.25m a year.

Of course you always look for reclamation projects too. Jeremy Chinn and Devin White have seen their stars fall. Mike Macdonald feels like a good coach to get them back on track, if their markets are weak.

Macdonald also turned late summer additions in Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy into ultra value contributors. That approach feels like it could be what the Seahawks need this year, even if it doesn’t work out.

Look at how the Ravens have been built. They traded up for a franchise quarterback when they sensed an opportunity to strike. They found a playmaking tight end in round four. They found a pass-rushing defensive tackle in round three. They were opportunistic in the Roquan Smith trade. They found value on the market. Everything else has since come together.

What do I think the Seahawks will do? Schneider says they’ve prioritised Leonard Williams. That, in the past, has still meant setting a limit. It sounds, however, like they’re determined to keep him. They’ve created a lot of cap room, including re-working Tyler Lockett’s deal this weekend. Is this to be financially aggressive in a competitive market? I sense it’s because they’ve got a lot to do — with starting roles to fill and depth to improve. I also wonder if their aim is to try and solve as many needs as possible because, as discussed, their intention might be to trade up for a quarterback.

The key to the off-season isn’t next week. It’s the draft. It’s being clear as to whether you see a potentially great quarterback in this class who is acquirable. If so, exhaust all opportunities to get him. If not, then you pivot to getting the best trenches player and they need to hit on some mid/later round guys.

Let other teams win free agency. It’s more important for the Seahawks to find franchise cornerstones via the draft.

I offered some video thoughts on this subject which you can check out here…

With the combine in the books I have updated the horizontal board, making adjustments based on testing, further tape review, fresh study and information gathering. The board is unlikely to change too much between now and the draft. Tweaks are possible but I’m pretty comfortable where I have the players separated. The biggest changes will come from watching players I’m yet to study and adding them to the board.

Here’s the update (click to enlarge):

A few explanations. The players in red either have current injuries, are recovering from injury or have injury histories. I separate the players in the way I have on the board to create graded tiers. The best in class are in the blue-chip category and I part them from the rest of the players I’d take in round one.

This isn’t about slotting 32 players in the first round range, 32 in the second round etc. It’s about individual grading. Some of these players will go earlier/later than I’ve graded. I’m now going to run through some of the key talking points.

Quarterbacks

I feel pretty good about these rankings and will probably keep them as they are until draft day now. I’ve long thought there was a Caleb Williams tier on his own, Jayden Daniels was QB2 and then it was about working out how the rest follow.

I have Michael Penix Jr as QB3 because of his supreme arm talent. I think it’s the biggest X-factor trait among the remaining quarterbacks. I do have reservations about his elusiveness and improv, the fact he had an eight-game stretch where his completion percentage dropped by 15% and I wonder if he’s too reliant on shot-making downfield. However, he makes throws the majority of quarterbacks can’t even consider. I think he’s worth taking a chance on and although I have him in round two on the board, that’s a reflection of the pro’s and con’s. I understand why a team would select him in round one.

Spencer Rattler is QB4 and I don’t think this will be seen as an ‘out there’ take by some in the league. Having watched all of his 2023 games, you can see a multitude of reasons to be upbeat about his pro-prospects. He’s the only player who played in anything like a pro-style system with a prior NFL play-caller. His offensive line was so bad, combined with competing in the SEC you were given a glimpse of how he’d handle a next-level pressurised environment. There are plenty of examples of anticipation throws, out-of-structure completions, high-level arm strength, extending plays, making conversions with his legs and other such positives. Situation matters and while Rattler’s numbers were not of the level of a Bo Nix or Penix Jr, he did enough on an individual level to impress.

The concerns with Rattler come down to size and how teams view his difficult spell at Oklahoma. They’ll need to analyse whether he has truly developed as a person, or whether he’s simply done what he needs to do to extend his career when things appeared doomed two years ago. That’ll likely make or break his stock because the natural talent is very much there. He’d be an excellent pick for someone like the Rams in round two.

Drake Maye has a lot of the tools you look for in a quarterback but he simply isn’t consistent enough with his technique and decision making. I think you can justify taking him a round earlier than I have graded but he’ll need time and development. He has a high ceiling but I think starting early could cause issues.

J.J. McCarthy has genuine intangible qualities and I’m receptive to the importance of his third-down numbers and completion percentage when scrambling. However, I don’t believe he’s a difference maker as a passer and I think his tape generally is unspectacular, as is the arm strength. You see occasional flashes of brilliance but not enough of it consistently. There are also some head-scratching moments on film. Thus, I think a round two grade is fair all considered — but again, I understand why some teams will consider him a round earlier.

Bo Nix I really struggle with. He played well within himself all week at the Senior Bowl and then did the same during the combine throwing session. He didn’t seem to throw with any anticipation or let it rip in Indianapolis. There are throws on tape where he’s shown he can launch passes with velocity across his body so I’m not sure why he’s been so reserved. I fear that Oregon’s system, which was incredibly protective and user-friendly, has created a player who wants to play it safe and pick his moments when to attack. That’s fine and there are systems in the NFL that won’t mind that. I just prefer players who can improvise and play in the moment. I worry Nix can excel but only in a system that is quite strict and sets things up for him and that he won’t ever be an inspired difference maker.

There aren’t any later round quarterbacks that I’d be inclined to draft after this group is off the board.

Running backs

It’s not a special group but there are players I think could justifiably be taken between picks #55-80. Trey Benson’s physical profile hints at major upside potential and it’s the same with Jaylen Wright. With the way Blake Corum tested, I do think in the right system he could be quite an effective high-carry option. It won’t be surprising if the Chargers invest in him. Jonathan Brooks clearly has talent but the injury is a concern.

I also think Marshawn Lloyd, Ray Davis and Braelon Allen offer early day-three value and that in the final few rounds you might be able to find a gem or two. There’s nobody I’d be running to the podium for, though.

Wide receivers

I’ve never had a positional list as long as the 2024 second round receivers. To have 13 graded in that range speaks to the strength of the position — and several of the players have an excellent opportunity to quickly develop into pro contributors.

I think Brian Thomas Jr’s combine workout separates him from the pack as WR4. There was evidence on tape of an ability to separate downfield and make intriguing plays but I didn’t anticipate a testing session like he delivered.

The biggest movers post-combine are Keon Coleman, Ricky Pearsall and the two Texas receivers. Coleman, despite running a slow forty, looked excellent during on-field drills. His game has never been about pure speed and while there’s definitely some lingering concern about his ability to separate at the next level, I think there’s enough on tape to believe his talent will shine beyond this question mark. I think Adonai Mitchell is a superior player to Xavier Worthy, despite Worthy’s record-breaking forty. Pearsall is a far better athlete than I ever anticipated.

I think we might see a mad rush at this position in the top-60 then a fairly steep drop-off.

Tight ends

There’s a decent crop of ‘worth a shot’ types in this group based on the decent testing numbers (10 yard split, agility testing). However, it’s also not a group where you can feel confident of sufficiently addressing a pivotal need. For example, I doubt the Seahawks with their current situation at the position are banking on solutions with this class and will undoubtedly sign at least one veteran next week.

The biggest riser for me is Ben Sinnott. I thought he was one of the most fun and entertaining players to watch in 2023 — yet in the media, there wasn’t even a hint at the testing profile he showed at Indianapolis. When you then discover he has a similar set of physical traits to Sam LaPorta, it brings a whole new perspective to the tape. I think he’ll go in the top-45, possibly even very early in round two.

Offensive linemen

There’s no doubt in my mind that Taliese Fuagu and Troy Fautanu are the best two offensive linemen in the draft. They’re very athletic, well sized, aggressive, extremely physical, versatile and explosive. Although I think Joe Alt and Olu Fashanu deserve to be taken in the final third of the first round based on talent — I’ve never seen either as the top players at their position within this class. Alt is very tall and rigid and I think will suffer some of the same issues as Mike McGlinchey. Fashanu needs major technical work.

I’ll be very surprised if Fuagu lasts to #16 and I think it’s increasingly likely Fautanu won’t make it that far either.

Caedan Wallace is someone I’ve just recently watched post-combine — I think he presents a chance to get a very solid starter in round three and warrants more attention. He’s extremely solid and fundamentally sound — and that’s kind of what you want up front.

At guard, I think there are a lot of attractive mid-round options. I was really impressed with Trente Jones and Trevor Keegan at the combine. Christian Haynes, Jarrett Kingston and Dominick Puni all have starter potential and I really enjoyed watching Mason McCormick’s tape this week — he’s highly athletic, loves to hammer opponents and he’s a very explosive lineman.

I think the round 3-4 range is a good area to look at the center position. Tanor Bortolini, Dylan McMahon, Beaux Limmer and Charles Turner all have very appealing traits. If you want to go earlier, Zach Frazier is the best ‘no-nonsense’ hit you in the face type with supreme grip strength and tone-setting ability. Sedrick Van Pran had a good on-field display to remind everyone of his talent. I thought he looked great at his 298lbs weight. I like Jackson Powers-Johnson I’m just not sure about a 330lbs center.

There’s a strong possibility the best player available at #16 will be an offensive lineman — and that could be the direction the Seahawks take. However, I would also stress that, as the board shows, there are attractive ways to add talent, depth and competition to the offensive line without necessarily having to use a first round pick.

It’s also worth noting that the top O-line prospects are tackles. Some of them are being projected to move inside — but they excelled at tackle. It’s hard to know how the Seahawks will approach this without knowing how they feel about Abe Lucas’ health, or his ability to move inside. That’s a nugget of info that will dictate a lot of the decision making with the top pick, should they not be planning to focus on the future at quarterback.

Defensive linemen

Braden Fiske had one of the best combine performances I’ve ever seen. He was absolutely electric in drills, showed twitch and explosiveness with his testing numbers and he’s just ticking off boxes. He’s high character, his tape is good and he was very disruptive, he’s an elite athlete, he performed well at the Senior Bowl. Yes, the 31 inch arms are a concern and length matters. However, everything else makes up for the lack of length. The only concern is the report from Tony Pauline suggesting he had poor medical results. That’ll need to be monitored. Otherwise, he’s a unicorn as a physical specimen and deserves to be graded as such.

I think Byron Murphy also deserves his first round placing for a strong combine showing. His thick lower body is very appealing for the position — but upon tape review this week, I just wish he was a bit more consistent and could learn how to finish. He also has shorter arms. Ruke Orhorhoro, for me at least, isn’t that far behind the top-two and has Justin Madubuike level potential.

There are high upside defensive tackles on the board in rounds 3-4. These are players with physical tools who didn’t quite excel as much on tape. I think the Seahawks, if they don’t re-sign Leonard Williams, should be able to find a defensive tackle they like in this draft.

I dropped Bralen Trice a round as I didn’t expect him to weigh 245lbs and his 40 and 10 times were disappointing having dropped weight. He didn’t do any agility testing or jumps either.

In terms of edge rushers — there’s a clear top-four who will all likely go off the board before the end of the teens. Personally I didn’t think Dallas Turner’s tape was that impressive, which is why I have him as my third edge. There are obviously injury history concerns with Laiatu Latu too. However, it’s clear all four players have plenty of upside and potential and given the premium nature of their positions, they won’t last very long.

Another thing that’ll play into possibly all four being gone potentially before the Seahawks are on the clock is the lack of alternatives in a second tier. There’s a decent gap between the top four and the rest.

Linebackers

Good luck. This isn’t a draft class to imagine you’re going to solve problems here. The Seahawks, with no starting options currently on the roster, have to look at the veteran market. There are players who could appeal but are you going to be able to target players with starting potential? I would imagine that alongside re-signing Leonard Williams, this will be a priority position next week — unless they’ve decided to place minimal importance on it. That seems unlikely given how critical Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen were in Baltimore for Mike Macdonald — but some teams have gone cheap and cheerful here.

I’ve moved Jeremiah Trotter into round four after a disappointing combine where he looked middling and small. Payton Wilson had an exceptional combine but the injury concerns linger. Junior Colson not doing any workouts was disappointing. I won’t be surprised if a linebacker-needy team without a lot of holes over-drafts Edgerrin Cooper given how well he tested.

Cornerbacks

This is a consistent class with pockets of talent for each round. The thing that excites me, though, are the options later on. I think Ryan Watts has a physical profile, including 34.5 inch arms. Kalen King had a shocking Senior Bowl and didn’t run fast — but he showed in drills he can’t be totally written off.

Quinyon Mitchell is the clear CB1 for me but I thought Kamari Lassiter was the big combine winner thanks to excellent drills and blazing agility testing.

Safeties

Perhaps lost amid all the ‘end of days’ veteran cuts recently is that teams probably see this as a sneaky good safety class. I now have eight graded for day two. With the league moving towards a lot of two-high and three-safety looks, versatility is king. This is a class full of versatile, intelligent, scheme-diverse players.

Javon Bullard running a 4.47 nudged me to go and re-watch his tape and I moved him up a round. He can cover, he can hit, he can play deep or move up and make a tackle. He’s likely a second rounder. Dadrion Taylor-Demerson has been a favourite of mine since the start of the 2023 season — I just had no idea how well he’d test. When I saw those results, combined with the prior tape review, I think he’s a second round talent who might be available a bit later than that. I also thought Dominique Hampton had a superb combine and is capable of doing a job at the next level. He might not go as high as I have graded — but I personally think this range is fair.

Overall thoughts

The depth of talent at offensive tackle and receiver is well advertised. I think there are also good options at safety and the quarterback class will have mixed opinions — but we could see teams prepared to take chances on upside/potential knowing the numbers are thinner at the position for the early rounds next year.

It’s not a deep class at tight end or linebacker and that could shape some of Seattle’s free agent decision making next week.

At the top of the page (desktop version) you’ll find a ‘horizontal board’ tab so you can get easy access to the board. On a mobile device, you need to select the three bars to produce a menu, where you’ll find the same option.

It might be time for a few people to start adjusting those mock drafts because there’s a growing sense that Drake Maye isn’t going to go as early as some people have been suggesting.

I’ve long been a sceptic of Maye’s. It’s not that I think he’s a bad player or doesn’t deserve a placing in the first round. I just think he’s been overhyped since day one. We started the college football season with the media constantly relaying that Caleb Williams and Maye were equals, or that either could go first overall. There was no evidence of that on tape.

Throughout the season — and I watched most of UNC’s games in 2023 — I just didn’t see what everyone else was seeing. In week one, I thought Spencer Rattler outplayed him even in a losing effort. In mid-October I wrote the following:

I feel like the only person who ever says anything non-gushing about Maye. Twitter was awash all weekend with nonsense about him going before Caleb Williams. That would be nuts. Williams had a carless performance against Notre Dame and it might act as a useful kick up the backside, given reports today that he might seek an ownership percentage in his first contract (come on). However, he is clearly also so unbelievably talented and the rightful #1 pick next year. Maye is an intriguing player too but this idea that he’s a top-five lock is hard to fathom.

I went on to review Maye’s performance against Miami in that article, which highlighted some of the issues. There’s plenty of good where the physical tools shine and the risk-taking pays off. There were also too many head-scratching moments in 2023, too many ugly plays and he was far too inconsistent with his technique and his decision making.

It’s why I’ve consistently graded him as a fringe first rounder, with clear separation on my horizontal board between Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, then Daniels and the rest. I have Michael Penix Jr and Rattler ahead of Maye. The physical tools are alluring but I genuinely believe he is someone who needs time and development before he can start in the NFL.

That thinking is now, seemingly, starting to permeate through the media after the combine — where many of the talking heads will have spoken to people in the know.

Mike Garafolo was on KJR today and mentioned that he’s hearing from multiple sources that J.J. McCarthy, not Maye, is generally considered QB3. There’s a lot of hype around McCarthy at the moment but I’d suggest this is partly a review of Maye and how teams likely feel uncomfortable taking him in the top-five, with the subsequent pressure that will come to start him quickly.

A month ago Lance Zierlein cited a source saying Maye could fall, comparing his situation to Will Levis:

NFL Draft Analyst @LanceZierlein appearing on The Move the Sticks podcast with Daniel Jeremiah & Bucky Brooks said that an NFL evaluator told him that he thinks that UNC QB Drake Maye could fall in the draft. #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/VQc9jFSLwM

— WBG84 (@WBG84) February 4, 2024

For what it’s worth, I’d argue Levis was on a different level physically to Maye and had better examples of translatable tape. That doesn’t mean Maye will drop to the #33 pick — Levis had some injury history and was older — but it’s interesting when considering what might happen in April.

Bob McGinn has started reporting intel from his scouting sources. Here’s a quote from one scout on Maye:

“He really didn’t raise the level of that program. That last game, I’ve never seen a quarterback who’s supposed to be a top guy have absolutely no answers for a team (North Carolina State). I always had concerns that he couldn’t raise his level, but that just cemented it. He shrunk under just the pressure and the gravity of what was going on around him. He’s got an arm. He can move around. But everything is just flashes. Nothing is consistent. It’s all flashes. Doesn’t have a very good feel for the game. There’s a little bit of Drew Lock in him.”

Here’s another scout, for balance:

“He’s still growing. They don’t drill fundamentals at all. But he’s big, good enough arm, smart, really accurate. I don’t know he’s going to be dynamic but guys like him win Super Bowls. He’s a pocket passer but he’s not a statue.”

Then there’s news from Tony Pauline today, where he initially reported that the Patriots are not enamoured with Maye and that teams are ‘hot and cold’ on the North Carolina prospect. In the latest ‘Draft Season’ podcast, he went a step further — saying, “Drake Maye is probably going to go in the middle part of round one.”

That would speak to the kind of fall Lance Zierlein was hinting at a month ago.

There are other things to consider here. Garafolo, again speaking on KJR earlier, said he would expect Michael Penix Jr to go in the first round. I spoke to a source at UW this week and asked for a best guess on where Penix Jr goes — and was told he won’t get past the #13 pick.

I can well imagine Penix Jr going before Maye, provided the medical checks are clear as reports suggest. He has an outstanding arm. Unlike Maye, he elevated Washington to new heights. He’s better placed to start quickly.

Then there’s McCarthy. It’s been interesting to listen to the analysis on him since the combine, where he didn’t have a great workout (contrary to what some are saying). As noted on Saturday, the big appeal here is going to be McCarthy the person and the fact he statistically performs well in key metrics such as third downs and scrambling completion percentage. Coaches like Sean Payton, who basically want a quarterback to work within the framework of the scheme and execute as they’re told to, will find McCarthy appealing. Denver trading up feels like a solid bet.

McCarthy isn’t an exceptional talent with amazing tape. He doesn’t seem, to me, like someone who will do what you want a top-level quarterback to do and occasionally win a big game with his arm and drag his team over the line. In a desperate quarterback driven league, though, someone will take him for the intangible and ‘money-down’ qualities and hope that he’ll be consistent — emotionally and performance wise.

And yes — I do think some teams will convince themselves that the immensely charismatic and likeable McCarthy has comparable personality traits, not to mention the same winning habit, as a certain other Michigan QB — even if that’s a fairly desperate reach. Thus, McCarthy going ahead of Maye suddenly feels plausible and perhaps very likely.

This could quickly become an ‘elite two’ at quarterback, with Williams now the consensus #1 pick (he always was) and Jayden Daniels being Washington’s clear selection at #2. Then things get interesting.

There’s increasing clamour that New England will trade down. They could auction the pick to Denver, Minnesota (who are very analytically driven in their front office) or the Giants before inevitably drafting an offensive tackle (people don’t realise Ron Wolf was a big trenches guy and his son may have a similar mindset). It’s also not a surprise that the Patriots seem like competitors for Baker Mayfield, given the decision makers in New England these days were big players and/or are linked to the people who took Mayfield first overall in Cleveland.

Don’t be surprised if Penix Jr is next off the board to a team like the Giants, Vikings or Raiders. It also won’t be a surprise if one of these three teams wait on Box Nix or Spencer Rattler (Rattler will go earlier than some think — possibly round two).

Where does that leave Maye?

It’s conceivable he is New York’s choice. They could sit him behind Daniel Jones for a year. Brian Daboll did wonders developing Josh Allen in Buffalo. However, Rich Eisen said the Giants ‘are done’ with Jones this week and if you take Maye at #6, good luck stopping the New York media clamouring for him to start right away. They might be better off going the Nix route — given his greater experience.

Would Minnesota or the Raiders draft Maye, forcing him to start quickly? Or the Falcons if they can’t land Kirk Cousins as many believe?

It’s very possible but the same kind of teams passed on Levis, despite the fact he was far more ready to start, flashing for the Titans as a rookie.

When John Schneider was asked at the combine why he’d met with Maye and Daniels, this was his answer:

“We have to be ready for anything. We don’t know if a certain trade will go down, or something happens, I mean, you guys have seen players fall in the past and we’ve seen teams be able to jump up and have successful trades moving up into the top-10 to draft guys and, so yeah, you just have to be prepared for everything.”

I think Maye is Schneider’s type of quarterback — big, creative, bit of a gunslinger mentality, unpolished. Maye’s personality also feels like it fits with the type of character Schneider would want to bring to this team. I suspect, given the huge amount of focus on character in the last two drafts, Seattle’s next big splash at QB will be for someone with A+ character. By all accounts, Maye seems to have that.

Schneider is also, I believe, someone who focuses on what a player can become. Even as a Maye-sceptic, I appreciate he has the tools to be excellent. It’s just about how much conviction you have that he’ll succeed, or how secure you feel in taking him early.

Being ready for anything, as Schneider said in the quote above, could mean being prepared for Maye to fall. If he fears the likes of Minnesota and Las Vegas, he might be willing to move up — just as the Bills did for Allen and the Chiefs did for Mahomes, Schneider’s two publicly known draft crushes.

Allen and Mahomes were considered rough diamonds, too. That’s easy to forget.

It could be ideal for the Seahawks and for Maye. For the team, it wouldn’t cost as much to move up into the #6-10 range than #3 overall. For the 21-year-old player, he could sit behind Geno Smith for a year while he makes critical adjustments to his footwork in preparation to start, while learning the playbook.

That could also be true for 21-year-old J.J. McCarthy, who might be getting rave reviews from Mike Macdonald and Jay Harbaugh. Both of course worked with the quarterback at Michigan. It’s hardly beyond the realms of possibility that they speak glowingly about McCarthy, or that the new Head Coach has told his new boss — this is the guy we need.

As I’ve talked about a lot recently, it feels like the Seahawks are very aware — now that John Schneider is in control — that they need a long term solution at quarterback. The non-committal answers about Smith, the meetings with the top QB’s at the combine, reporters like Peter King and Jeff Howe suggesting the Seahawks could be a team that has its eye on moving up for a QB.

There’s some smoke. We’ll see if there’s fire in the coming weeks.

Eventually though, they’ll need to do something. You can’t wait year after year for the ideal situation to fall into your lap. There are three ways to land a franchise quarterback. You can be bad enough to draft early (see: Joe Burrow, C.J. Stroud, Justin Herbert). You can get lucky with a mid or later round pick (see: Brock Purdy, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady). Or you need to be aggressive (see: Allen, Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Matt Stafford).

I doubt the Seahawks plan to be picking earlier than 16th next year, in a class that is expected to have a thinner group of first round quarterbacks. If they are picking later than #16, or if there are fewer QB’s to go after, it’ll be harder to trade up. They could hope to be lucky but that’s not much of a plan.

Is this the year to ‘go for it’?

I firmly believe they are exhausting their options at quarterback in round one in this draft. If it simply isn’t possible, either because they can’t move up or because one they like doesn’t last to #16, they’ll have no choice but to crack on and take the best player left available instead, which would probably be a lineman. That would be fine.

I get the increasing sense, though, that Schneider does like the quarterbacks in this draft and is very open to finding a way to invest in one, knowing they have the ideal situation in Seattle to transition to the future rather than feeling pressure to throw a rookie in at the deep end.

This is going to be a fascinating off-season.

If you missed my interview with Michigan pass rusher Jaylen Harrell, check it out here. You can also listen to my latest visit with Puck & Jim on KJR, brought to you by Superior Linen, by clicking here.

This week I had the opportunity to speak to Michigan pass rusher Jaylen Harrell, in the second interview in my player series for this year (check out my conversation with Malik Mustapha here). I have another interview lined up for next week — please check these out!

Every Wednesday at 12pm PT I join Puck & Jim on KJR to talk Seahawks — and you can check out today’s segment below as we get into the latest topics. Shout out to Superior Linen for making it possible.