The Seahawks are still meeting with veteran players and we could see another addition before the draft. It’ll probably be an experienced center or another defensive linemen. They could use an edge rusher to replace O’Brien Schofield and they’ve met with Chris Myers and Stefen Wisniewski.
For the purpose of this mock let’s assume they bring in a veteran center.
Second round pick
Seahawks trade up for a receiver using pick #112
They’d make a move like this for two key reasons — they need better talent at receiver and the cost to move up is minimal. Seattle can deal the fourth round pick they acquired from New Orleans to move up. Philadelphia jumped from #54 to #42 last year for the price of a fourth rounder. The Seahawks would still pick four times in rounds 4-5 — enough to make multiple additions to the offensive line. Jermaine Kearse is a free agent in 2016, Paul Richardson’s health is a genuine concern and the likes of Kevin Norwood and Chris Matthews are virtual unknowns. Be optimistic over Matthews if you wish — but one swallow doesn’t make a summer. There are likely to be good options in rounds 3-6 but this is all about grading. Let’s say a receiver drops into range in round two who not only grades significantly higher than the others in the class — but also grades well compared to your existing roster. For the measly price of a fourth rounder you can go up and get another big prize for the offense and Russell Wilson. It’s not about changing your offensive identity, this is about putting better talent around Wilson (your future +$100m quarterback). We discussed the possibility of a second round trade in more detail here. In my second round mock this week, Dorial Green-Beckham, Tyler Lockett and Sammie Coates were in striking distance. I’ll let you decide which of those options they might prefer.
If the deal isn’t right or the guy you’ve got your eye on doesn’t fall into range — I think you take the best offensive lineman on your board. I’m curious why the Seahawks have tried to acquire an early fourth round pick on two occasions (Harvin trade, Graham trade). The Eagles used pick #122 to move up twelve spots in 2014. The #112 pick could get you up the board 10-15 places.
Perhaps it’s coincidence, or maybe there’s a plan for that pick?
Third round pick #95
Mike Davis (RB, South Carolina)
I can already feel the angry bashing of keyboards in the comments section. A receiver and running back with the first two picks? Are you insane? I wrote a blog post yesterday arguing why this could be a possibility. In twelve months time the only contracted running back on the Seahawks roster could be Christine Michael. Marshawn Lynch is the new Brett Favre when it comes to retirement and Robert Turbin is a free agent in 2016. I don’t believe they trust Michael enough to make him the unchallenged starter next year. I also think they’d rather be overly prepared for life after Lynch — not needing to force an early pick on a running back in the future. The solution is to draft one this year — a player you really like with the potential to start in 2016. You can carry five running backs — they actually did it in 2013 (Lynch, Turbin, Michael, Ware, Coleman). If you’re prepared to stash a ‘full back/running back of the future’ in Spencer Ware that year — making some tough cuts in the process — you better believe they’d be willing to stash a future Lynch replacement. The odds are against Coleman and Will Tukuafu both making the cut. They can carry five running backs this year, easily. That would present, as a worst case scenario, two contracted running backs to compete for the job in 2016 plus a further opportunity to add. That to me seems like a very viable scenario. I’m not a big Mike Davis fan — I saw plenty of average performances last year. I’m making this pick because the Seahawks are clearly intrigued. He’s making a VMAC visit soon, just like Michael did in 2013. It doesn’t mean they’ll take him but it could mean they’re trying to work out just how good he is. This mock isn’t about picking ten or eleven players I like. It’s about a projection. I might not like Davis that much. You might not like Davis that much. All that really matters is whether the Seahawks like him.
A quick note on the first two picks. You could argue you can get a receiver or running back later on. And you’d be right. You can. But you have to consider the following:
1. You’re grading the wide receivers in round two in the 5.7-6.0 range and the receivers in the mid-to-late round in the 5.2-5.5 range
2. You’re grading most of the offensive line class in the 5.5-5.8 range
There’s depth in both areas but you might get a player in round two at receiver with a much better grade than the guy you’re taking in round four. The offensive lineman you take at #63 as a fall back if you can’t/don’t trade up could easily have a similar grade to the O-liner you take in round four.
Basically I’m trying to emphasize the overall depth on the offensive line. It’s significant enough to allow you to make one or even two luxury picks to kick things off. And while I flagrantly use the term ‘luxury’ — there won’t be anything luxurious about either pick if Mike Davis is the starting running back in 2016 and Dorial Green-Beckham is enjoying a breakout year as the teams #1 receiver.
Fourth round pick (original selection #130)
Terry Poole (T/G/C San Diego State)
When I watched Terry Poole at the combine, his body shape and posture really stood out. He looked like an ideal interior lineman with a nice straight back, hand technique and solid footwork. He’s a bit of a project for sure but he’s also athletic enough for the scheme with nice size (6-5, 307lbs) and there’s a lot to work with here. Tom Cable has drifted towards project-type linemen in recent years. He moved J.R. Sweezy from defense to offense, brought in the raw Justin Britt and has tried to develop a cluster of other lineman with unique size or athleticism. The Seahawks seem to like players with tackle experience that they can move inside. Poole ticks that box. It’d be an eyebrow raiser for the media — immediately calling this a reach. We have to remember that the Seahawks just DNGAF. They drafted Jimmy Staten in round five last year. Heck, some people were calling Britt a seventh round prospect and he went at #64. They’ll take whoever they think has the best shot to fit in. If that’s Poole and they can guarantee him here, they’ll do it. If you haven’t noticed Cable has a lot of sway in Seattle. He’s trusted to bring in his guys, develop them and start them quickly.
Fourth round pick (compensatory selection #134)
Ty Montgomery (WR, Seahawks)
Look, it’s the fourth round of the draft. While we all like to believe you can find these major impact players in this range (and the Seahawks have a good record on day three) the reality is if you can find a contributor at all you’re doing well. You don’t draft Montgomery here to be a dynamo at receiver putting up major yardage. You draft him to be a return specialist. He takes up the Bryan Walters roster spot — limited snaps on offense but handles every punt and kick return. He scored four touchdowns on returns in 2013-14. Over time you can work him into the offense to see if he contributes there. As a worst case scenario you get a cheap return man on a four-year deal. The Seahawks basically played without a return game last season and spending a fourth round pick to turn that around would be a wise investment. He’s a genuine game-changer on returns. Montgomery is scheduled to visit with the Seahawks.
Fifth round pick (original selection #167)
Shaquille Riddick (DE, West Virginia)
You’re waiting until round five to make your first defensive pick? Of course. The Seahawks put out the #1 defense in terms of yardage and scoring the last two years and are retaining all of their key starters apart from Byron Maxwell (who they’ve already replaced). Seattle doesn’t need that much on defense. They need to replace Jerron Johnson — something they can probably do in UDFA (or just give Dion Bailey his shot). They need to add another cornerback. They need some extra depth for the interior defensive line. They can fill those needs on day three of the draft — starting here with O’Brien Schofield’s replacement. Riddick is very raw — he transferred to West Virginia from Gardner-Webb and faced the same fate as Bruce Irvin. Both players ended up playing the five-technique in WVU’s slightly odd three-man front. It didn’t suit Irvin and it didn’t suit Riddick. He struggled for production but here’s what you need to know — he ran a 1.57 ten yard split at his pro-day, ran an insane 6.67 three-cone, jumped a 36-inch vert and a 10-4 broad. He’s 6-6 and 244lbs. He’s a project and might not last this far. If he does, the Seahawks can take a chance and fit him into the rotation immediately as a specialist.
Fifth round pick (compensatory selection #170)
Mitch Morse (T,G,C, Missouri)
This is why you can afford to wait on offensive linemen this year. Morse isn’t a big name but he doesn’t half play with grit and determination. If the Seahawks are willing to take his former team mate and close friend Justin Britt in round two, they have to at least be willing to consider Morse in this range. For me he’s a project center. He has almost identical size to Max Unger (6-5, 305lbs) and you could redshirt him this year behind a Chris Myers before starting him in 2016. He’s strong at the point and matches up well 1v1, he’s strong (36 reps on the bench) and looks like a really solid fit at center. He will look to get to the second level and he’s enough of an athlete to work into the ZBS. With a bit of seasoning he could develop into a legit starter. On tape you’ll be more impressed with an Andy Gallik at Boston College but Gallik is a limited athlete with marginal upside. Morse has a much higher ceiling and again that all important tackle experience. I have a hard time imagining the Seahawks going with a conventional college center like Gallik or B.J. Finney when they can tap into the upside of a Morse who is bigger and more athletic with just as much (if not more) grit.
Sixth round pick (Percy Harvin trade #180)
Rakeem Nunez-Roches (DT, Southern Miss)
Considering his performance against Alabama last season he might go a lot earlier than this. There aren’t many really intriguing interior pass rushers. Nunez-Roches gave Bama’s O-line fits — consistently knifing into the backfield to make plays. He fires off the snap and wins a lot of the time with a quick get-off. His motor and relentless effort stood out against Alabama — here he was playing on a losing team and still bringing it every down. He won’t fit every scheme at 6-2 and 307lbs. His arms are a shade under Seattle’s apparent ideal of 33 inches but he’s possibly close enough. The Seahawks have enough beef up front with Mebane, McDaniel and Rubin. They need another three-technique who can spell/backup Jordan Hill. Nunez-Roches is the best later-round option available by some distance.
Sixth round pick (compensatory selection #209)
Tray Walker (CB, Texas Southern)
If there’s a rush on cornerbacks in round one (I think there will be) the options are going to be really diluted by even the third round. Players like Alex Carter are going to go higher than initially thought and it’ll leave the Seahawks searching far and wide for their next corner project. Tray Walker is taking a VMAC visit and he’s 6-3 and 189lbs. According to Tony Pauline he’s the biggest corner in the draft with the longest wingspan. He ran in the 4.5’s at his pro-day but only managed a 32.5 inch vertical according to NFL.com. He’d be a project much like the Jeremy Lane’s of yesteryear but this is the market Seattle’s shopping in and it’s why they made such a big push for Cary Williams. The top corners will go early before even Seattle’s first pick at #63. They will be forced to look for project players. Walker with his speed and length at least looks the part.
Sixth round pick (compensatory selection #214)
Rob Crisp (T, NC State)
I’ve been a Rob Crisp fan for some time. Go and watch his performance against Vic Beasley if you’re not convinced he has a future in the NFL. He’s pushing 6-7 and over 300lbs. He managed a 32.5 inch vertical which was the joint highest for offensive linemen at the combine. He’s a really good football player with legit blindside potential. So why is he available here? Persistent injury issues. The Seahawks took a chance on Jesse Williams and they’d be taking a chance on Crisp too. He’s had concussion problems and suffered a broken tailbone. He could still go in the middle rounds — he’s certainly talented enough, tough enough and he really can play left tackle. If he falls because teams are worried about whether he can stay healthy, he’d be an absolute bargain here. He’d provide depth in year one and he’d have an outside chance to replace Russell Okung one day if they can’t re-sign him.
Seventh round pick (original selection #248)
Quinton Spain (G, West Virginia)
He ran a 5.02 at his pro-day despite weighing 332lbs. You’re talking about a massive, athletic offensive guard with horrible hand-technique. He needs a ton of coaching in terms of hand placement, leverage and learning to anchor properly. You see flashes of genuine quality here but a lot of teams will prefer the more polished ‘finished articles’ available earlier in the draft. Even so, we know the Seahawks love this kind of size and he could come in and immediately compete to start at guard. When you can get this type of value later on (Spain is being graded as an UDFA or seventh rounder) you don’t have to rush things with the O-line. You can add other players with higher grades, look at a variety of needs and still find guys for Cable to coach up. A lot of people will prefer the bigger names but guys like Poole and Spain are determined, physical blockers with size and athleticism plus the right attitude. They also have room to grow. That’s what Seattle appears to be looking for.
Overall draft class
Wide receiver (DGB, LOCKETT OR COATES)
Mike Davis RB
Terry Poole G/T
Ty Montgomery WR/KR
Shaquille Riddick DE
Mitch Morse C/G
Rakeem Nunez-Roches DT
Tray Walker CB
Rob Crisp LT
Quinton Spain G
With this class you’d be starting Poole, Spain or Alvin Bailey at guard in 2016. You’d be signing a veteran center with the plan to develop Morse for the role long term. You’ve brought in another dynamic weapon for Russell Wilson in round two after a small trade up and dramatically improved the return game for the cost of a fourth rounder. You have a possible starting running back for 2016, extra defensive line depth for the edge and the interior. You also get a project left tackle and another corner with length and speed.
It won’t please everybody, it’s unconventional. But it fills quite a few short and long term needs.