Quincy Wilson — suddenly underrated and in tier four

The names listed in each tier are not ranked, they are grouped.

Tier one (4)

Leonard Fournette (RB, LSU)
Solomon Thomas (DL, Stanford)
Myles Garrett (EDGE, Texas A&M)
O.J. Howard (TE, Alabama)

Myles Garrett and Solomon Thomas are two of the most explosive defensive linemen to enter the league in a generation. Here’s how they compare to other great defensive linemen using TEF:

Myles Garrett — 4.21
Mario Williams — 3.97
Solomon Thomas — 3.83
J.J. Watt — 3.82
Khalil Mack — 3.81
Aaron Donald — 3.53
Jadeveon Clowney — 3.50

O.J. Howard could be the most complete tight end to enter the NFL, possibly ever. He’s a 4.50 runner at 250lbs, has textbook blocking technique and can be the ultimate weapon at the next level.

Leonard Fournette is a beast. Pure and simple. Like all running backs the environment he plays in is crucial. If he lands on a team committed to running the ball with at least an average offensive line, he has superstar potential.

Tier two (5)

Haason Reddick (LB, Temple)
Marlon Humphrey (CB, Alabama)
Malik Hooker (S, Ohio State)
Jonathan Allen (DE, Alabama)
Garett Bolles (T, Utah)

Haason Reddick is a modern day defensive dynamo. He flies to the football, plays with great intensity, gets sideline to sideline and can rush the passer. He could be Ryan Shazier working inside or Von Miller lite at OLB.

Marlon Humphrey is the best cornerback in the draft in my opinion. For some reason there’s too much focus on his ball-tracking skills (can be improved) and not enough on his physicality, athleticism and coverage ability.

Whenever you get a chance to draft someone with Earl Thomas’ range and nose for the ball, you should seriously consider it. Malik Hooker is cut from the same cloth and while he probably lacks Earl’s quirky intensity — he’ll allow teams to play single-high and exploit the benefits of nickel base.

Jonathan Allen is a bad ass. He isn’t twitchy and he isn’t going to dominate like Aaron Donald at the next level. He will, however, absorb blocks and set the tone up front. He’s a finisher when he gets sight of the quarterback.

Garett Bolles plays like he’s pissed off with the world. You want your linemen to have an edge and Bolles is as nasty as they come on the field. He’s also incredibly athletic — capable of locking on to a D-liner, winning with leverage and possessing the hip-torque to turn his man in the run game to open up huge lanes.

Tier three (6)

Jarrad Davis (LB, Florida)
Adoree’ Jackson (CB, USC)
Christian McCaffrey (RB, Stanford)
Jabrill Peppers (S, Michigan)
Reuben Foster (LB, Alabama)
John Ross (WR, Washington)

Patrick Willis? Ray Lewis? These comps are not unfair for Jarrad Davis. He’s that good. Plays his tail off, great athlete, fantastic character.

Adoree’ Jackson is the ultimate playmaker and a first round pick in any draft. He’s a threat to score any time he touches the ball. He could be one of the all-time great kick returners. Fantastic character and a willing tackler despite his lack of size.

Christian McCaffrey is another player perfectly matched for the modern game. He can line up in the backfield, split out wide and cause constant headaches for a defense. He could be Julian Edelman or Doug Baldwin in the slot and he’s a sudden, physical runner in the backfield.

Jabrill Peppers might be the most misunderstood player in the draft. His entire role at Michigan was to contain the edge in the run game. The whole ‘one interception’ thing is such a misplaced narrative. He’s a dynamic, gritty strong safety or big nickel and a plus return man.

Reuben Foster could slip due to character concerns but these appear to be mostly related to the company he keeps. It’s hard to judge him on that — especially if you were considering moving him to the other side of America. He’s highly athletic and hits like a sledgehammer.

John Ross isn’t just a 4.22 runner down the field only capable of separating on a go-route or deep post. He consistently wins at the snap, creating early separation in his routes. In the modern NFL he can be a genuine threat lined up outside or in the slot, capable of Antonio Brown-style mass production in the right offense.

Tier four (15)

Quincy Wilson (CB, Florida)
Kevin King (CB, Washington)
Chidobe Awuzie (CB, Colorado)
Forrest Lamp (G, Western Kentucky)
Gareon Conley (CB, Ohio State)
Marson Lattimore (CB, Ohio State)
Taco Charlton (EDGE, Michigan)
David Njoku (TE, Miami)
Budda Baker (S, Washington)
Obi Melifonwu (S, Connecticut)
T.J. Watt (LB, Wisconsin)
Tyus Bowser (EDGE, Houston)
Evan Engram (TE, Ole Miss)
Jamal Adams (S, LSU)
Mike Williams (WR, Clemson)

The more I watched Quincy Wilson, the more I liked. He has good size, mirrors receivers very well and anticipates routes to play the ball. He’s confident and cocky (in a good way) with the size to be physical in the run game.

Kevin King is a freak of nature. There just aren’t many 6-3, 200lbs cornerbacks capable of running a 4.43, jumping a 39.5 inch vertical and flashing the kind of agility he showed in the short shuttle (3.89) and three cone (6.56). There are ways he can improve at the next level but any coach worth his salt is going to want to work with this physical profile.

Chidobe Awuzie is what the league needs as it moves ever closer to a consensus nickel base. He has the athleticism to cover the slot, the awareness and physicality to be an effective blitzer and the football IQ to line up at safety, outside corner or inside. He can be a hybrid starting at nickel and dropping into a two-deep zone in certain looks.

Forrest Lamp was the most explosive offensive lineman at the combine. He lacks the length to be an obvious fit at tackle but he could be an early starter at guard or center. Great character and attitude. The type of player teams love for their O-lines.

There are a lot of reasons to like Gareon Conley — size, length, athleticism, fantastic positional awareness. There is one minor quibble though — he didn’t use his hands enough at Ohio State. He can’t get away with conceding so many free releases at the next level and he has to learn how to jam and re-route.

There isn’t a ton of difference between Marshon Lattimore and Conley. Lattimore is the better athlete but there are concerns about his long term health (hamstring issues).

Taco Charlton is a really fun player to watch. He was finally being used properly as a Senior, lining up as a pure EDGE and attacking the LOS. He could be Chandler Jones as a fair comparison and his ceiling is possibly Aldon Smith.

David Njoku is a sensational athlete at the tight end position. A true mismatch target. He can line up outside or as a joker. His blocking is better than advertised. He will dominate smaller cornerbacks and safety’s. Only scratched the surface of his potential at Miami. Would like to see more of an edge.

Budda Baker is a 5-10 defensive back who plays like he’s 6-4 and 225lbs. Intense, physical, fast. Very few players can sift through traffic and explode into the backfield like Baker. There will be concerns about his size if you want to play him in the slot but if anyone can make it work it’s Budda.

The league is going through a phase where teams are utilising multiple-WR sets and emphasising the tight end in the slot. The counter punch is the 4-2-5 formation and the use of the big nickel. Obi Melifonwu could set a new standard for one of the most important positions in the modern NFL.

T.J. Watt and Tyus Bowser are almost identical physically. Let’s add a third name into the equation — Khalil Mack. Look at how they compare to the reigning NFL defensive MVP. You’ll be surprised how they similar they are.

Evan Engram sometimes gets lost in the wash but he might be Mike Evans (Tampa Bay receiver). He’s a 4.42 runner at 234lbs. People raved about Melifonwu’s 4.40 at 225lbs. Engram thoroughly deserves a first round grade.

Jamal Adams is a good football player but is he really special? His pro-day was considerably better than his combine which is always suspicious. He’s not an overly physical hitter and he’s not as rangy as Hooker. He’s a good leader though and made some big plays at LSU.

Mike Williams isn’t a great athlete and might be more Alshon Jeffrey than DeAndre Hopkins. Jeffrey is still a really good player though and Williams is capable of similar production in the NFL.

Tier five (10)

Justin Evans (S, Texas A&M)
Cam Robinson (T, Alabama)
Takk McKinley (EDGE, UCLA)
Charles Harris (EDGE, Missouri)
Tre’Davious White (CB, LSU)
Jourdan Lewis (CB, Michigan)
Corey Davis (WR, Western Michigan)
Zach Cunningham (LB, Vanderbilt)
Cordrea Tankersley (CB, Clemson)
Chris Wormley (DT, Michigan)

Yes, the missed tackles are a concern for Justin Evans. They are for Earl Thomas too. I’m willing to live with that a little to tap into Evans’ explosive athleticism, bone-jarring hits and special plays.

Cam Robinson is a good offensive linemen. However, there has to be a legit feeling that he’ll end up moving inside to guard where you can make the most of his size and power — because he isn’t explosive, mobile or particularly athletic.

Takk McKinley has a lot of potential. He’s a 1.60 10-yard runner and his motor never stops. He’s relentless. His technique needs some fine-tuning and he might have a Ziggy Ansah learning curve but he has a ton of upside.

Charles Harris really boosted his stock at the Mizzou pro-day with better results in tests like the vertical jump. He performed well during the positional drills at the combine too. Highly athletic EDGE rusher and his best football is ahead of him.

The #18 jersey at LSU is coveted, saved for a player with special personal and leadership qualities. Tre’Davious White has worn the #18 for the last two seasons. He’s not a twitchy athlete but he’s tough, fast enough and is a playmaker in the return game. Dependable.

Jourdan Lewis is toughness personified. He never backs down, he’s sticky in coverage and plays well above his size in the run game. He’s a specialist slot cornerback with grit and intensity. Consistently made plays at Michigan.

Corey Davis hasn’t done any workouts this off-season due to injury. He has some concentration drops and he’s better after the catch than he is running routes or creating separation. Might be a bit of a Jordan Matthews at the next level.

Zach Cunningham isn’t a sideline-to-sideline, super fast Ryan Shazier type linebacker. He is explosive and tough, ideally suited to playing the MIKE. He’ll be a tackle machine for several years.

Cordrea Tankersley is savvy, physical and has some really good tape against tough opponents. He dominated Bucky Hodges at Virginia Tech. He undercuts routes, jams with authority and anticipates throws to make interceptions.

Chris Wormley can be inconsistent and it’s unclear whether he’ll ever be a truly dynamic pass rusher. However, he has really good size and length — plus a strong motor and great attitude. He might not be a headline maker at the next level but he might be a solid, underrated starter.

Key names not included (and why)

The quarterbacks
The Seahawks have a franchise quarterback so there was little point including them here. I will say though — I like Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes and Mitch Trubisky. I’m not sure why they’re considerably less hyped than Jared Goff.

Dalvin Cook (RB, Florida State) & Joe Mixon (RB, Oklahoma)
Just a personal opinion (and it’s my board after all). If they’re good, they can be good somewhere else. Zero sleep lost.

Ryan Ramcyzk (T, Wisconsin)
He was a zero-star recruit, he quit football once already and while you have to give him respect for coming back and making a career out of this in the end — he’s now recovering after surgery on a torn labrum and hasn’t done any off-season work-outs. He doesn’t wow you on tape and he isn’t a dominant run blocker. I’m willing to risk him being really good somewhere else.

Sidney Jones (CB, Washington)
Jones is a really good player but achilles injuries are legit. The chances are he won’t play in 2017. I’d consider him after round two as a redshirt but look at all the injured players San Francisco used to draft and stash. How many worked out?

Derek Barnett (DE, Tennessee)
Short arms, mediocre athleticism, small size. It’s not a great combination. Barnett plays hard every week and had some great moments in Tennessee. Is he going to be able to re-create that at the next level with his limited physical profile?

Tim Williams (EDGE, Alabama)
Without the character concerns, he’s a first rounder. When a player constantly admits his mistakes and keeps making them — that’s a problem. He’s good but is he worth the risk in the top-50?

Fabian Moreau (CB, UCLA)
He tore his pec at the UCLA pro-day. His athleticism and frame are better suited in the slot but he struggled working inside. He’s been injured a lot in his career.

15 names for later on (Day 2-3, UDFA)

Shalom Luani (S, Washington State)
Noble Nwachukwu (DE, West Virginia)
Nico Siragusa (G, San Diego State)
Jehu Chesson (WR, Michigan)
George Kittle (TE, Iowa)
Michael Davis (CB, BYU)
Rayshawn Jenkins (S, Miami)
Samson Ebukam (EDGE, Eastern Washington)
Scott Orndoff (TE, Pittsburgh)
Daeshon Hall (EDGE, Texas A&M)
Brandon Wilson (CB, Houston)
Deangelo Yancey (WR, Purdue)
Adrian Colbert (S, Miami)
Damore’ea Stringfellow (WR, Ole Miss)
Dylan Cole (LB, Missouri State)

Jourdan Lewis visits Seattle — what it tells us

According to the man himself, he’s either visited the Seahawks or will do in the near future.

This is significant for two reasons:

1. It reinforces the belief Seattle is going to focus strongly on the slot cornerback / nickel position rather than outside cornerback

2. It suggests length is not as crucial in the slot

On the first point, here are some of the reasons why the Seahawks might be more likely to draft a slot cornerback at #26 instead of the more popular prediction of an outside cornerback:

— Our piece on wingspans highlights this isn’t a great draft for long cornerbacks. The Seahawks have never drafted a cornerback with a sub-77.5 inch wingspan. There are only six cornerbacks in this entire draft class with a +77.5 inch wingspan. The only two ‘fits’ expected to be drafted during the first two days are Kevin King and Ahkello Witherspoon (and Witherspoon is allergic to tackling as noted here). It’s possible their only serious outside cornerback target at #26 is Kevin King.

— It’s worth remembering how the Seahawks have filled the #2 cornerback spot over the years (and as of today, Richard Sherman doesn’t appear to be anywhere close to being traded, so they are looking for a #2). They used Brandon Browner (ex-CFL), Byron Maxwell (6th rounder), Cary Williams (free agent) and Deshawn Shead (UDFA). So the idea of Jeremy Lane, Neiko Thorpe, Pierre Desir or a returning Shead starting across from Sherman is not fanciful or unrealistic.

— It’s still likely they will draft an outside cornerback at some stage but is it likely to be their first two picks? Or is it more likely to be someone in round three or in the later rounds? Remember — they’ve not previously drafted a cornerback earlier than the fourth round. They’ve consistently waited until day three.

— We know the Seahawks played a lot of 4-2-5 last season (explained here). With Jeremy Lane at least temporarily moving to outside corner (in Pete Carroll’s words) there’s an opening at the ‘fifth DB’ position. That position was a 71% defensive snap role in 2016. It could be even more significant in 2017 as the Seahawks appear open to adopting a nickel base moving forward.

— This draft class is strong at safety and slot cornerback. Some of the best options at #26 are likely to be players who can act as a big nickel or orthodox slot corner. Obi Melifonwu, Adoree’ Jackson, Chidobe Awuzie, Justin Evans and Budda Baker are among the really enticing options.

This brings us onto point #2 — length.

Jackson, Awuzie, Baker all have sub-32 inch arms and short wingspans. We know the Seahawks have strictly drafted long cornerbacks in the past. Is this vital in the slot?

Their two all-world safety’s don’t have particularly long wingspan’s (Earl Thomas — 74.5, Kam Chancellor, 76.5). And the way the league is adapting, the ‘fifth DB’ position is pretty much a safety/corner hybrid.

The meeting with Jourdan Lewis kind of confirms length isn’t as important for this role. He has 31 5/8 inch arms. He’s also small — listed at 5-10 and 188lbs. He’s in the Adoree’/Budda bracket for size.

It might be a coincidence but Pete Carroll attended the USC pro-day (Jackson) and Kris Richard was at UCLA (Fabian Moreau). Now there’s the Lewis visit and Melifonwu has been in Seattle for a meeting too.

A lot of the mounting evidence points to the slot cornerback/big nickel role being a major target — arguably more so than outside corner.

And this shouldn’t be a surprise given the way the league is trending and Carroll’s lukewarm assessment of Jeremy Lane’s performance in 2016.

More on Jourdan Lewis

Having a more open mind on size/length has opened up a lot of new options to assess. As noted yesterday, Chidobe Awuzie is a diamond. He just isn’t long. If that doesn’t matter in the slot he could easily be Seattle’s first pick.

Awuzie is one of those players who could go in the top-15 or last into the early 30’s. There’s a few in this class. If he’s off the board — and if Melifonwu, Jackson and King are too — the Seahawks could do with alternative targets.

And that’s arguably where Jourdan Lewis comes into play.

I sat down to focus on him today for the first time, watching three games initially. Here are things that really stand out:

— He is ultra competitive despite his lack of size. Awuzie has the kind of gritty personality that matches this team but Lewis takes it up another notch.

— Lewis is nearly always in position to make the play. He lives in the WR’s hip pocket. Even when he gives up some separation downfield, he finds a way to get a hand in there to make the play. Despite his relatively short arms (31 3/8 inches) he actually has a 75 1/8 inch wingspan. It’s not elite length but it’s good for his size.

— He’s possibly the toughest little b*****d in the draft. Considering his size, it was a joy to watch him in run support. He gives absolutely everything, leaves it all on the field, never shies away from contact, tackles competently and does a far superior job than any of the big cornerbacks in this draft (this CB class is lacking in run support overall).

— Solid run support in this ‘fifth DB’ role is absolutely crucial.

— He had the interception of the season to win a game for Michigan against Wisconsin. It was Odell Beckham Jr-esque:

Interception of the year by Jourdan Lewis. But I can't help but notice it was 4th down… #DraftTwitter pic.twitter.com/xuFt4xi57A

— Jonathan Valencia (@JonValencia_WiB) March 16, 2017

— You can clearly see he isn’t the same type of athlete as Adoree’ Jackson, Justin Evans or Chidobe Awuzie. He is very much a gritty, well drilled, well coached, loves the game type of player. That lower grade of athleticism is probably what separates him from the pack. Yet there’s not a huge drop-off in performance.

Lewis ran a 4.45 forty at his pro-day with a 4.29 short shuttle and a 6.88 three cone. At the combine he jumped a 10-1 broad and a 34.5 inch vertical. Not great numbers but not a problem either.

I think it’s highly likely he’ll be a top-50 pick.

In a scenario where the likes of Awuzie and Jackson are off the board — or if the Seahawks have some kind of a plan that involves a real desire to trade down — Lewis makes a ton of sense. Alternatively, they could look to trade up from #58 to target Lewis and take a pass rusher (for example) with their top pick (eg Bowser or Watt).

If you were impressed with Awuzie’s character yesterday, there’s more of the same here. This is an interview he did at the Senior Bowl:

Is Chris Wormley an option too?

The Seahawks seem to like and appreciate the Michigan defense. It’s not a big surprise. Despite the often heated rivalry between Pete Carroll and Jim Harbaugh, there also lay a kind of mutual respect.

And while Lewis could legitimately be an option for them at slot corner, versatile D-liner Chris Wormley is another possible target too.

I wrote a brief piece about Wormley when I visited Seattle last November. Here are some of the notes:

For starters his gap discipline is excellent and that’s pretty much one of the most important things if you’re going to play D-line for the Seahawks. They put a high priority on players who can execute their jobs, control the situation and work against the run. Wormley is very good here with plus strength and the ability to handle 1v1 blocks consistently well if he lines up inside or out. He plays with heavy hands in the run-game.

He’s nearly always on the field for Michigan (doesn’t get subbed very often) but he’s still willing to string plays out and work in pursuit. He plays with an edge and he’s tough.

As a pass rusher nobody would say he’s twitchy but he does have a decent get-off. He had 6.5 sacks last season and 14.5 TFL’s. This year he already has 7.5 sacks and 7.5 TFL’s. You can’t argue with his production. He’s savvy with the push-pull move and he has enough power to drive blockers into the backfield to impact snaps even when he doesn’t get on the stat sheet.

Wormley has classic size to be a potential inside/out rusher (DE in base, kick inside on third down). He’s 6-5 and 298lbs with 34 1/8 inch arms and a 82 3/4 inch wingspan (he’s the fourth longest interior D-liner in the draft).

He didn’t work out at the combine but managed a lightning quick 4.84 forty, a 31.5 inch vertical and a 9-2 broad.

The key workout to focus on might be the short shuttle. The two pass rush DT’s the Seahawks have drafted since 2010 are Jordan Hill and Jaye Howard. Hill ran a really good 4.51 shuttle and Howard a 4.47. Wormley is right in that ballpark with a 4.55.

Howard also ran a 1.68 10-yard split (good for his size) while Wormley ran a 1.67.

Wormley’s three cone time (7.08) is also considerably faster than any of the DT’s Seattle has drafted in the Carroll era (the best was Howard’s 7.32).

He’s also an authority figure, speaking like a grown man in interviews with a striking maturity and business-like attitude.

He does have a tendency to be a little inconsistent on tape but if the Seahawks do want to add another inside-out rusher, this could be their best bet.

Could they trade down at #26 and then trade up at #58 to land Lewis and Wormley with their first two picks?

I wouldn’t bet against it.

It feels like there’s a strong possibility they’ll add a slot corner/big nickel and a pass rusher in the first two rounds.

In this weeks podcast, Kenny and I get into a number of topics including the importance of wingspan and the likelihood of the Seahawks focusing on the nickel/slot position. Check it out:

Today I wanted to build on what we discussed yesterday — the key to this draft could be what Seattle does at the nickel/slot position.

There’s a consensus among draft analysts that the Seahawks will take either an O-liner or an outside cornerback. It’s possible for sure, depending on who’s available.

Yet with the Seahawks shifting towards more of a 4-2-5 formation (and as we highlighted yesterday, it perfectly suits Seattle’s defense) adding a dynamic ‘fifth DB’ could be much more of a priority than people realise.

There’s a relatively high chance they will be attracted to Obi Melifonwu and Adoree’ Jackson for this role — but it’s entirely possible neither will be there at #26.

So today I wanted to look at another option.

Colorado’s Chidobe Awuzie.

If you didn’t see this yesterday, take a look…

Before you even get into what he shows on the field, isn’t this just about the most impressive video you’ve seen this year highlighting the football IQ of a draft prospect?

If the Seahawks do draft a ‘big nickel’ in round one, that player is going to need a strong awareness of safety and cornerback duties. You’re basically a match-up weapon — playing at the LOS, blitzing, covering across the middle, dropping into a two-safety deep zone. You might end up travelling to the outside. It’s a complex job requiring a strong understanding of different techniques.

So right off the bat, Awuzie ticks that particular box.

We learnt yesterday how the 4-2-5 looks to utilise blitzing — in particular with the fifth DB. The Seahawks have experimented with the CB Blitz since Kris Richard became defensive coordinator. Awuzie attacks the backfield better than anyone (or at least at the same level as Budda Baker). He had four sacks in 2016 and six TFL’s. In his college career he had an astonishing 226 total tackles.

He isn’t the biggest but he compares to Bradley McDougald in terms of size. He’s 6-0 and 202lbs while McDougald is fractionally taller (6-1) and a little bigger (209lbs). Awuzie on the other hand is much faster (4.43 speed), more agile (4.13 short shuttle) and more explosive (39.5 inch vertical, 11-0 broad). If they’re willing to play McDougald as a big nickel, Awuzie is basically a more athletic version.

Is wingspan a problem? Arguably not considering he’s essentially acting as a ‘third safety’ or a hybrid CB/S. Earl Thomas has a 74.5 inch wingspan, Awuzie’s is 74 1/8 inches. We’ll find out in this draft class how important wingspan is considering the massive difference between the short cornerback group and the long safety group.

What do you see on tape? He’s good in run support with the requisite physicality and aggressiveness. There is absolutely zero doubt he’s a fit in that regard. Awuzie plays with the kind of attitude you expect from Seattle’s defense.

Unlike Adoree’ Jackson he’s not a particularly sudden runner and he does give up separation to more dynamic receivers. That said, he’s competitive to work back and recover and there’s a reason he has 28 PBU’s in his college career.

Awuzie is an instinctive player and he clearly does his homework. His one interception in 2016 came on a play he identified, made himself disappear in coverage and was then able to explode to the ball having anticipated the throw.

I liked in the video above that he basically had a chip on his shoulder about his athletic profile, even giving Daniel Jeremiah some grief for his pre-combine view of his speed.

He might not have the dynamic raw playmaking skills of Adoree’ Jackson or the standard-setting physical profile of Obi Melifonwu — but there’s a ton to like about Awuzie. It’s very easy to imagine him in Seattle’s defense — his personality fits them like a glove and if he needed to he could probably adjust to free safety in an emergency. He has the talent, grit and athleticism to be a starter as a big nickel/slot hybrid.

He’s another player in this class who could easily go in the top-20 or last into range for Seattle. He is a must-consider though for all Seahawks fans at #26. Put him on your radar, add him to the list. He’s a legit option.

While a lot of focus has gone on the offensive line and outside cornerback, it’s worth remembering a few things:

— Seattle likes their young group of O-liners and has already signed two veteran players to support the developing unit

— The Seahawks still have Richard Sherman and while many assume they’re going to want a dynamic #2 or eventual replacement for Sherman, look at how they’ve actually filled that job in the past (Browner — free agent from the CFL, Maxwell — sixth round pick, Williams — free agent, Shead — UDFA converted safety)

— Jeremy Lane has played outside cornerback, they seem to like Neiko Thorpe and Pierre Desir and Deshawn Shead is working to return — this is how Seattle has filled that #2 corner position in the past

— While a case can be made that Bradley McDougald could be the starting ‘big nickel’, as discussed yesterday his signing looks like a hedge

— If McDougald ends up just being a backup safety that’s no bad thing because there is literally zero depth on the roster behind Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor at the moment apart from McDougald

— The Seahawks appear to have a pretty strict wingspan ideal and if Kevin King is off the board at #26, it’s hard to find an alternative who matches what they like (unless they want to start Melifonwu at corner)

It’s entirely possible Seattle addresses the following positions in this kind of order:

R1 — Big nickel or slot cornerback
R2 — Pass rusher
R3 x 3 — Safety depth, tight end, receiver, D-line, cornerback or linebacker

So while there’s currently a lot of focus on the Seahawks drafting an outside corner or O-liner with their first pick, that might not be the case.

For quite some time now we’ve been discussing Seattle’s use of the 4-2-5 formation and why it might feature even more prominently in the future.

Here’s a quick recap on some of the main points:

— Seattle ran a lot of 4-2-5 last season with Jeremy Lane playing 71% of the defensive snaps as the nickel cornerback

— Lane replaced the SAM linebacker as the Seahawks, like a lot of teams, moved towards a ‘nickel base’

— Frequently a 4-2-5 is a Cover-3 look with a post safety or middle-of-the-field safety

— This formation puts the Nickel and the Strong Safety close to the line of scrimmage, leaving the Free Safety aligned in the middle third

— You can also switch into a look that puts the Nickel next to the Free Safety aligned in a two-deep look

— In other words, this is very ‘Seahawks’

— Pete Carroll’s lukewarm review of Jeremy Lane’s play as the starting nickel led us to wonder whether that would be considered a key target area in the draft

— Carroll recently suggested they are willing to use a formation with three safety’s on the field at the same time

— This is a strong draft class at safety

— The Seahawks have not drafted an orthodox cornerback earlier than the fourth round in the Carroll era, so a ‘Buffalo’, ‘Big Nickel’ or ‘Slot’ drafted in the first round arguably would chime with this existing trend

An article was brought to my attention today that further reveals why the Seahawks might be trending towards a permanent switch to the 4-2-5. The piece was written by the TCU Head Coach Gary Patterson, detailing the benefits of the formation and why he’s used it during his career.

Every single word from Patterson is solid gold. I originally intended to highlight some select quotes but basically I’d have to copy and paste the whole thing to do it justice. You’ll read the first couple of paragraphs and I guarantee you’ll be nodding along, fully understanding why the Seahawks are embracing this 4-2-5 concept.

Here’s the Cliffs Notes version of its intentions:

— Provide a simple scheme that promotes execution and athleticism

— Take away an opponents run game

— Establish an eight-man front

— Find a way to counter-punch while playing ‘bend-but-don’t-break’

— Out-hit the opponent, create takeaways and eliminate big plays

— Find ways to blitz using your DB’s

I’ve basically just bullet-pointed Seattle’s defensive plan. Patterson writes about the 4-2-5 like he’s just finished watching the Seahawks defense.

And when you consider the ‘Buffalo’ (a 4-2-5 with a third safety on the field, explained here) is a single-high safety cover-3 scheme anyway — it all makes perfect sense.

This is why I think it’s highly likely the Seahawks will draft Obi Melifonwu if he’s available at #26.

He appears set to be the poster child for the ‘big nickel’ moving forward. If you were to create an ideal prospect for the position, he’d look like Melifonwu. The 4.40 speed, the 6-4, 225lbs size, the 79 1/4 inch wingspan, the 4.09 short shuttle.

For a position of growing importance in the NFL, Melifonwu is essentially the ideal. It’s no surprise the Seahawks’ top brass got excited watching him at the combine.

Watch Pete Carroll turn to Kris Richard after watching Obi Melifonwu run a 4.40 #Seahawks pic.twitter.com/eA4JGHuJaZ

— Rob Staton (@robstaton) March 6, 2017

We already know they love unique traits and freakish athleticism. For this specific role he is the ultimate prospect.

Of course, there are likely other teams with similar intentions. Don’t be surprised if Melifonwu is off the board by #26 as a consequence. He could set a new standard for the trendiest defensive position in the modern NFL.

Carroll recently asserted Bradley McDougald could be used as a ‘third safety’ or ‘big nickel’ in 2017. I suspect he was brought in as a hedge. If the Seahawks really want to run this type of scheme, they couldn’t go into the draft knowing they might miss out and then have to re-think everything they want to do.

The McDougald signing means they can use a 4-2-5 next season with a big nickel. The question now is whether Melifonwu or someone else will end up taking that job as a first round pick.

Melifonwu isn’t the only option. Chidobe Awuzie was 6-0 and 202lbs at the combine. McDougald is listed at 6-1 and 209lbs. It’s entirely possible Awuzie could be drafted to compete for that job.

And despite his lack of size there seems little point in betting against Budda Baker also being a consideration — or Adoree’ Jackson for that matter considering his extreme kick return qualities and rare athleticism.

For some McDougald’s presence on the roster will be interpreted as the Seahawks having ‘got their man’ and now they can look at other positions. Possibly so. Yet their willingness to play the waiting game before eventually getting him for a mere $1.8m would be a curious and cheap way of landing a vital starter.

The price feels like a hedge. And they do need depth at safety as well. So if he’s beaten to the ‘big nickel’ job by a rookie, it’s hardly a wasted signing.

Either way, it still feels like this circled position…

… is the key to the Seahawks plans on defense this year.

And if they don’t take a ‘Big Nickel’ with their first pick, keep an eye on Shalom Luani later on.

Other notes

Jason La Canfora is reporting Gareon Conley is going to be drafted in the top half of round one.

This isn’t a big surprise. Conley is a prototype outside cornerback who had a very good combine, a solid final season at Ohio State and he has zero character concerns.

The question is — how quickly will Kevin King, Obi Melifonwu and Adoree’ Jackson follow after him (assuming Marshon Lattimore and Marlon Humphrey are the first two CB’s off the board)?

Teams generally aren’t stupid. When you have rare physical traits, way beyond the norm, you’re going to go early. Teams will look at King and Melifonwu and see how unique they are and they’ll take a shot. Jackson is an explosive, incredible playmaker.

The Seahawks under Pete Carroll have impacted the league. A player you’d consider ‘Seahawky’ these days is attractive to virtually the entire NFL.

As we discussed above, increasingly this is a match-up league and finding players that can give you a match-up advantage is incredibly important. The best way to create a match-up advantage is to draft for extreme physical upside.

So while there’s been an assumption for a long time that Melifonwu, King, Conley and Jackson will last to #26, do not be shocked if that isn’t the case and the Seahawks have to consider alternatives like Chidobe Awuzie, Budda Baker, Tyus Bowser, T.J. Watt or Justin Evans.

I wanted to finish with a quick word on Colorado cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon. As we highlighted over the weekend, there are actually very few cornerbacks in this draft class that match Seattle’s previous length barometers.

Witherspoon is one of the few that does.

I watched three of his games again over the weekend and there are so many things to like. He’s terrific in coverage — regularly extending to break up passes. He has the short-area quickness, feel for the route and the deep speed to be a very effective cover-corner.

Only one player in the country defended more passes than Witherspoon in 2016 — his Colorado team mate Tedric Thompson.

However, his play against the run is so bad it’s frankly impossible to imagine him in Seattle’s defense.

When I say bad, I mean Indiana Jones 4 bad. There are literally plays where Witherspoon moves out of the way to avoid contact. He shows zero willingness to even set a strong edge to push the play back inside. His mere presence would be enough at times — he doesn’t need to get off a block and tackle like Richard Sherman. Just hold the point at your side, force the run back inside and let the other players do their work.

Unfortunately, he doesn’t even do that. This isn’t about tackling technique (which also isn’t great) or a couple of things that need tweaking. This is about want and desire. And sadly, as good as he is in coverage, you’re going to give up a ton of plays if Witherspoon plays this way at the next level. Teams will key to his side all day long — whether it’s running the ball, bubble screens, WR screens or whatever.

So unless he can convince teams that he has it within him to change, it’s hard to imagine him being much of a consideration for a club like Seattle that places such a strong emphasis on defending the run and tackling.

Ahkello Witherspoon is one of only a handful of CB’s with Seattle’s preferred wingspan

Every cornerback drafted during the Pete Carroll era has had 32 inch arms. They have acquired a cornerback with sub-32 inch arms (Marcus Burley) but he was considered a slot-corner only.

With the Seahawks seemingly prepared to continue playing predominantly in nickel (4-2-5) it looks like addressing the ‘fifth DB’ is a priority (either a big nickel or orthodox slot cornerback) so we’ll see how important arm length is if they address this early in the draft (Adoree’ Jackson and Chidobe Awuzie could easily be on their radar).

However, at the very least they view length as vital at outside cornerback. So are we right to focus on pure arm length or is wingspan the more important feature?

Wingspan is defined as the length between the tip of your middle finger on one outstretched arm to the other.

The average NFL cornerback has a wingspan of 75.5 inches (31.5 inch arm length).

Here’s the arm length and wingspan data for some of Seattle’s draftees, acquisitions and starters since 2010:

Richard Sherman — 32 (arms) 78 (wingspan)
Brandon Browner — 33 (arms) 80 (wingspan)
Byron Maxwell — 33.5 (arms) 77.5 (wingspan)
Jeremy Lane — 32.5 (arms) 78 (wingspan)
Tye Smith — 32 (arms) 78 (wingspan)
DeAndre Elliott — 32 (arms) 77.5 (wingspan)
Neiko Thorpe — 31 3/4 (arms) 78 1/2 (wingspan)
Stanley Jean-Baptiste — 32 3/8 (arms) 78 3/8 (wingspan)
Pierre Desir — 33 (arms) 77.5 (wingspan)

All of these players have at least been tried at outside corner (Lane started as a rookie at outside corner and is currently ‘next man up’ to replace Deshawn Shead).

The Seahawks appear to be less concerned about wingspan at safety. For example, Earl Thomas’ wingspan is only 74.5 inches and Kam Chancellor’s wingspan is 76.5 inches. This is possibly one of the reasons why they might draft a slot corner/big nickel with shorter arms.

Yet if you’re looking at outside corner, the Seahawks have a very consistent ‘type’. They’re adding players with at least 32 inch arms and a wingspan of 77 inches.

Surprisingly, this isn’t a great draft for cornerbacks who fit Seattle’s preference in terms of wingspan. It might be another reason why John Schneider was lukewarm about this class.

Here’s a list of most of the ‘big name’ corner’s in the draft and all of the cornerbacks with 32 inch arms and a +77 inch wingspan. Any names not included here don’t have the necessary arm length or wingspan. The cornerbacks who match each marker are highlighted in bold:

Marshon Lattimore — 31 1/4 (arms) 74 7/8 (wingspan)
Marlon Humphrey — 32 1/4 (arms) 76 1/4 (wingspan)
Tre’Davious White — 32 1/8 (arms) 75 3/4 (wingspan)
Gareon Conley — 33 (arms) 76 (wingspan)
Fabian Moreau — 31 3/8 (arms) 75 3/4 (wingspan)
Kevin King — 32 (arms) 77 7/8 (wingspan)
Jalen Tabor — 32 (arms) 76 5/8 (wingspan)
Cordrea Tankersley — 32 1/4 (arms) 76 1/4 (wingspan)
Adoree’ Jackson — 31 3/8 (arms) 74 (wingspan)
Ahkello Witherspoon — 33 (arms) 79 3/8 (wingspan)
Sidney Jones — 31.5 (arms) 71 7/8 (wingspan)
Rasul Douglas — 32 3/8 (arms) 76 7/8 (wingspan)
Shaq Griffin — 32 3/8 (arms) 74 3/4 (wingspan)
Chidobe Awuzie — 30 5/8 (arms) 74 1/8 (wingspan)
Marquez White — 32 1/8 (arms) 77 3/8 (wingspan)
Treston Decoud — 33 (arms) 77 1/4 (wingspan)
Brian Allen — 34 (arms) 78.5 (wingspan)
Michael Davis — 32 1/4 (arms) 77.5 (wingspan)
Quincy Wilson — 32 1/4 (arms) 75 7/8 (wingspan)

Only six cornerbacks in the entire class have 32 inch arms and a +77 inch wingspan.

There are some very surprising notes here:

— Despite having 33 inch arms, Gareon Conley’s wingspan is a relatively modest 76 inches — comparable to Fabian Moreau despite his much shorter arms (31 3/8 inches)

— Sidney Jones has average arm length by NFL standards (31.5 inches) but his wingspan is incredibly just 71 7/8 inches

— If wingspan is really important, Ahkello Witherspoon (79 3/8 inches) could be a key target (especially considering how well he performed overall at the combine)

— It’s not unfair to suggest they might only be interested in Kevin King and Ahkello Witherspoon early in the draft in terms of outside cornerbacks

— Despite having 32 3/8 inch arms, Shaq Griffin’s wingspan (74 3/4) is comparable to shorter cornerbacks like Adoree’ Jackson

The mediocre length on offer among the cornerbacks is even more striking when you looking at the safety class:

Malik Hooker — 32 1/4 (arms) 77 3/4 (wingspan)
Jamal Adams — 33 3/8 (arms) 75 1/2 (wingspan)
Budda Baker — 30 3/4 (arms) 71 3/4 (wingspan)
Jabrill Peppers — 30 3/4 (arms) 74 (wingspan)
Josh Jones — 32 (arms) 76 1/4 (wingspan)
Marcus Maye — 32 1/2 (arms) 77 1/4 (wingspan)
Obi Melifonwu — 32 1/2 (arms) 79 1/4 (wingspan)
Justin Evans — 32 (arms) 76 5/8 (wingspan)
Delano Hill — 32 1/8 (arms) 77.5 (wingspan)
Jadar Johnson — 32 (arms) 77 3/8 (wingspan)
Eddie Jackson — 32 1/4 (arms) 78 (wingspan)
Rayshawn Jenkins — 32 3/4 (arms) 77 3/8 (wingspan)
Josh Harvey-Clemons — 35 3/8 (arms) 82 5/8 (wingspan)
Damarius Travis — 31 3/4 (arms) 78 1/8 (wingspan)
Montae Nicholson — 33 3/8 (arms) 78 (wingspan)
Chuck Clark — 32 1/4 (arms) 77 1/8 (wingspan)
David Jones — 31 5/8 (arms) 77 3/4 (wingspan)
Shalom Luani — 32 (arms) 74.5 (wingspan)
Leon McQuay — 31 7/8 (arms) 77 1/4 (wingspan)

Cornerbacks with 32 inch arms & a 77 inch wingspan: 6
Safety’s with 32 inch arms & a 77 inch wingspan: 13

There are more than twice as many safety’s than cornerbacks in this draft with Seattle’s preferred length.

I’ve not included every safety in the draft here — but those who aren’t listed above don’t have 32 inch arms or a +77 inch wingspan.

This might be one of the reasons why teams are seriously considering moving Obi Melifonwu to cornerback. Not only does he have the speed and agility to work outside, he also has supreme length.

If the Seahawks are tied to a wingspan number (77 inches) as they appear to be with arm length (32 inches), the options are relatively limited in this draft at outside corner.

If Kevin King is off the board at #26 or they see Melifonwu as a corner, they might focus on the nickel ‘fifth DB’ position unless they’re really high on Ahkello Witherspoon and want to take him with their first pick.

It’s arguably further evidence that a ‘slot’ pick (big nickel or cornerback) could be the choice if they take a defensive back early.