
Time for a change?
This isn’t a prediction, it’s an opinion piece.
This is what I would do. Or at least seriously consider doing.
The Seahawks are a good team. You expect that when you’re paying a quarterback $35m a year.
They’re not a great team, though.
It’s tempting to fall back on the comfort of winning seasons, while hoping that next year will be the year.
You also run the risk of being good enough to make the playoffs every season but not good enough to do much when you get there.
You’re hesitant to make changes because you fear the consequences. Yet it’s that calculated gamble that often enables you to achieve greatness.
I don’t like to make comparisons to the New England Patriots because you’ll never have Tom Brady and Bill Belichick working the controls. Yet the Patriots have been the masters of knowing when to move on from certain players, at least until the point they moved on from the quarterback.
They’ve taken some risks and most of them paid off, with the exception of Chandler Jones and the premature parting with Brady.
Their willingness to trade or release players at the right time has helped keep them at the top. They’ve always been prepared to reinvent themselves. The only two consistent pillars were the coach and the quarterback.
I don’t think the Seahawks are as close as their 12-4 record in 2020 suggests. I think they benefited from a favourable schedule. Their only keynote win was against the Rams in week 16 — the team that dumped them out of the playoffs a fortnight later.
Losing that game so convincingly highlighted Seattle’s weakness in the trenches. The Rams played with a horrible quarterback situation and Aaron Donald missed 50% of the defensive snaps. They still won, in part, because they dominated up front.
The regular season record should only serve to set the table for a playoff run. This is a team that should be judged on its post-season record. They’re on a run of one playoff win in four years, with the win coming against a mediocre Eagles team.
They need to mix things up and try something new to avoid the same disappointing conclusion year after year.
They need to do what the Patriots would probably do — be prepared to move popular and expensive players, to try something different.
Bringing back the same cast of characters with the only significant addition being the #56 pick in the draft feels like a recipe for a repeat performance.
Same old, same old.
Yes, there’s optimism that comes with a new offensive coordinator. If he’s able to deliver timely adjustments and superior game-planning, this will be a huge boost. I still think Shane Waldren needs personnel support to produce the results we all want to see. The offensive line in particular needs upgrading.
With that in mind, I set out three priorities for this plan:
1. Create cap space and get back into the draft
The Seahawks currently are projected to have $204,729 in effective cap space. They only have three or four draft picks, depending on the Perry Nickerson situation.
The starting center, cornerback, tight end, #2 tight end, left guard, SAM linebacker, #2 defensive end and #3 receiver are out of contract.
Poona Ford is a restricted free agent and will likely receive a second round tender.
They only have 47 contracted players for 2021.
They simply don’t have the resources to get things done and that needs to change.
2. Shift resources to key positions in the trenches
When the Pete Carroll era began, they spent their top pick on an offensive lineman in 2010 and 2011. They signed Robert Gallery. They re-signed Max Unger. They paid to bring in Breno Giacomini. By 2013, they had the most expensive O-line in the NFL.
They traded for Marshawn Lynch.
They drafted and signed young, hungry, cheap defenders with a killer attitude.
That plan worked. Maybe it’s time to give it another try?
The Seahawks have pumped resources into positions like linebacker and safety and squandered money on tight ends.
It’s time to get back to basics. If you want to be a team that wins in the trenches, it’s time to focus your money and picks on the O-line and D-line.
3. Experience on offense, youth and speed on defense
Seattle was at its best with a young, physical, brash defense. I would try to recreate that with cheap, hungry players with a point to prove.
At the same time, they’ve invested $35m a year in a quarterback.
Let’s finally acknowledge that investment and prioritise protecting him, truly fixing the running game and getting at least one more weapon.
If give and take is required, then I’ll settle for a cheaper defense.
The plan
If the NFL provides salary cap relief due to Covid, then some of the following moves will be unnecessary and I’ll revise the plan. It’s still not clear exactly how teams like New Orleans will be allowed to function. They need to raise a minimum of $110m in a short space of time to avoid being over the cap.
However, even if the league provides modest relief and creates around $20m extra for the Seahawks to spend, I still believe they need to adjust their thinking in terms of where they are investing their money and picks.
I’ve tried to stay on top of the details as much as possible. I’m sure in some instances you’ll be able to quibble over the finer points. However, let’s be honest about what this is. A bit of fun. An opinion on the off-season. Don’t take it too seriously.
Trade Bobby Wagner
Why are you trading a Seahawks legend?
To be brutally honest, I don’t think he warrants a $17m cap hit in 2021 and a $20.3m cap hit in 2022. The Seahawks would be better off spending this money somewhere else, such as the offensive line.
But we’re talking about Bobby Wagner here!
He’s in a complex spot in his career. I think the Seahawks were justified in extending his contract in 2019. He was 29-years-old and the linebacker market, at the time, had exploded. He was always going to get more than C.J. Mosley and Seattle rewarded a much-loved player coming off a great 2018 season.
However, as often happens in the NFL, I don’t think he’s worth the contract any more.
I doubt he will take a pay cut. Thus, I think he’s going to have to run down his contract in order to establish a realistic bargaining position in 2023 when he’ll be 33 and a free agent. That doesn’t help the Seahawks for the next two years.
Who replaces him though?
The Seahawks used their 2020 first round pick on Jordyn Brooks — a middle linebacker. It’s time to justify that investment.
He’s a high quality player though! Show some respect
He certainly is. PFF graded him as Seattle’s top performer on defense (86.2) in 2020. He was the #2 ranked linebacker. Wagner is extremely reliable and does his job very well. However, in 2020 he only produced three sacks and seven TFL’s. He didn’t force a single fumble or interception.
For his salary, you need more than reliable. The price is simply too high. He’ll always be a Seahawks legend but when you have no resources, tough decisions need to be taken. Right now, in my opinion, this team would be best served placing their faith in Jordyn Brooks and investing the money elsewhere.
The Seahawks have got to shake things up and try something new. They’ve won one playoff game in four years. Pumping resources into the O-line, rather than linebacker, is worth a try.
Why would anyone trade for him?
There are several franchises in a rebuilding stage. I think if you were a young team trying to build a culture, Wagner would be the ideal player to insert into your defense. His leadership qualities would be of critical importance.
Take the Jets for example, now led by former Seahawks defensive coach Robert Salah. What value is a 30-year-old Wagner in that situation? He could be the lynchpin to launch the start of a turnaround. He can help teach the scheme. He can organise on the field and deliver instant credibility.
To me, that would be highly valuable.
The Jets have two firsts, a second and two third rounders this year plus an extra first next year. They have the stock to make a deal.
Plus, they have $63,475,814 in available cap space in 2021 and $121,643,976 in 2022. So they can easily accommodate the remaining two years of his contract.
I think the thought process at least makes sense. The Jets will incorporate Seattle’s scheme and terminology. They have brought in Salah to shape a new culture. I can’t think of a better first move.
It doesn’t have to be New York. There’s value in his experience and reliability that will appeal to a handful of teams, much in the way Duane Brown appealed to Seattle despite his age.
Trade Jamal Adams
Are you nuts? You’re plundering the defense
As noted in my article last week, there are many strands to this. I don’t think Adams is a great scheme fit. I think the sack numbers are manufactured and a bit of a mirage. I don’t think he (or any safety) warrants a contract worth $18-20m a year.
Plus, he’s your most tradeable asset.
I won’t repeat all of the details that I wrote last week. I would encourage you to read that piece before passing judgement on this particular aspect of the plan.
So who replaces him?
This is very similar to the Jordyn Brooks situation. Two years ago the Seahawks spent a second round pick on Marquise Blair. He was the #47 pick in the draft. They took him before D.K. Metcalf.
It’s time to justify that investment, too. Play him at strong safety. Spending a first round pick on Brooks to play WILL and a second round pick on Blair to play big nickel isn’t a great use of resources.
Also — hasn’t Ugo Amadi done enough to warrant remaining at nickel?
You drafted them early. Time to develop them and make them starters.
You need blue chip players on defense though!
Do you? Pete Carroll and John Schneider once built an amazing defense with no big names and no highly paid players. I’m not for a second suggesting they should ‘just recreate the LOB’. That’s virtually impossible. But there’s something to be said for having a young, hungry, fast defense full of pissed off players.
No entitlement. No big salaries. No expectation. Just a point to prove.
If the compromise for having a great O-line is needing to save money on defense while getting younger and cheaper — so be it.
And let’s be right here — who were Seattle’s highest graded players on defense last year?
Here’s the top-eight according to PFF:
Bobby Wagner
Poona Ford (UDFA)
KJ Wright
DJ Reed (cheap free agent pickup)
Alton Robinson (5th round pick)
Ugo Amadi (4th round pick)
Shaquill Griffin (3rd round pick)
Quandre Diggs (traded for using a 5th round pick)
Seattle’s top performers were all players acquired on the cheap.
On top of this, adding Carlos Dunlap for a seventh rounder plus B.J. Finney practically transformed the defense.
Challenge yourself to find the next Ford as an UDFA, the next Amadi on day three and make a cheap trade to get the next Diggs or Dunlap.
Create the next group that is pissed off for greatness, not pissed off because you haven’t offered them a record-breaking contract.
But he recently said he’d run through a brick wall for Pete Carroll!
He did — but cast your mind back a year ago.
Adams was part of the NFL Network’s broadcast crew for the combine. He was on the field during drills assessing players yet spent time discussing his future with the Jets.
He said he was excited that he could be a Jet long-term and that he found the team’s recent support ‘uplifting’.
The support was General Manager Joe Dougals saying he wanted Adams to be in New York for life.
What changed? Contract talks.
If the Seahawks are unwilling to meet Adams’ demands, things will probably change very quickly. That’s the acid test here. Is Adams simply willing to take a contract that will pay him marginally more than Budda Baker to be the highest paid safety in the league? Or is he going to be looking for Jalen Ramsey, $20m a year money?
Because if he wants $20m a year, or even $18m, that’s going to be a problem.
The Seahawks will never do this — they just traded for him!
They also traded a second round pick for Sheldon Richardson and moved on when the price wasn’t right. They traded a third round pick for Jadeveon Clowney and moved on when the price wasn’t right. They spent a first and a third round pick on Percy Harvin and moved on when he wasn’t right.
They gave Michael Bennett a three-year $31.5 million contract extension on December 30th, 2016 — and then traded him just over a year later, absorbing a huge dead cap hit in the process.
The Seahawks, actually, have never been too proud to move on.
The Jamal Adams situation is different to the ones above, of course. But ultimately, he’s going to want a record breaking contract and the Seahawks, for me, should be spending their resources elsewhere.
They should set a strict limit and if Adams demands more, they need to be willing to make a trade.
Again — you drafted Brooks and Blair. Time to play them.
You’ll never get your picks back for him though!
True. You’re going to have to take this one on the chin to an extent.
I do think Adams has retained some value though. In the right scheme, he’s still a star player.
Cleveland are desperate for second-level impact on defense. Adams would be a perfect fit for any of the teams associated with the Belichick coaching tree. The Ravens and Buccs also run the kind of schemes where he would thrive.
The two most likely destinations, in my opinion, are Cleveland and Miami. They have the need and the cap space. Both teams are also looking to take a big step forward in terms of contending.
I think a first round pick this year and a third rounder next year would be a fair and realistic return.
So you’ve traded away two great players for the next Rashaad Penny!
First or second round picks aren’t the problem. Bad decision making is the problem.
Malik McDowell over T.J. Watt. Rashaad Penny over Nick Chubb. L.J. Collier over Deebo Samuel or A.J. Brown or D.K. Metcalf.
All avoidable errors. All players who ‘fit’ the Seahawks and their positional ideals — passed over for average alternatives.
Imagine if they’d made the right calls instead? How would you feel about late first round picks and their value then?
The Seahawks simply need to draft better, not less.
By making these trades you are back in the first two days of a draft with a strong offensive line class. The challenge? To make the most of those picks and acquire talent at a dirt cheap price. It is possible.
Use the cap savings to make upgrades to the O-line
OK, so what’s the idea here?
It’s time to make the offensive line a strength. The aim should be a top-10 unit.
You’ve got Duane Brown, Damian Lewis and Brandon Shell as locked in starters. Left guard and center should be a key target.
Enough of the penny-pinching with short-term contracts for retread veterans. It’s time to land a big catch.
I would be planning to go all-in on Brandon Scherff.
When the next game against the Rams kicks off, I want an interior line that has a punchers chance of stopping Aaron Donald taking over the game. I want a top, quality player anchoring the interior.
You have to play the guy at least twice a season. They need a better plan.
Here’s what PFF says about Scherff:
Scherff has never posted a PFF grade below 72.5 in his six-year NFL career. Over the last three seasons, Scherff ranks among the league’s best guards in nearly every key metric, including a 97th percentile ranking on true pass sets and 90th percentile ranking in percentage of positively graded plays. Both numbers are among the most important when projecting interior offensive linemen from year to year. In the run game, Scherff can do it all, showing the power at the point of attack and the quickness to make any block in space. He’s also one of the most polished pass protectors in the league, and he stands out as the best interior offensive lineman in this free agent class.
You know what you’re going to get. There won’t be any ‘wait and see’ in week one. Immediately and emphatically he will improve your line.
How much will he cost though?
His projected salary according to PFF is $15m. That’s similar to Jack Conklin’s deal in Cleveland. Conklin’s year-one cap hit was $8m — so the Seahawks could seek to structure a similar deal.
It’s expensive but look — you’ve tried everything else and what has it produced? One playoff win in four years.
You’ve just been dumped out of the playoffs because you’re not good enough in the trenches and you can’t adjust. Hopefully, Shane Waldren addresses the second problem.
You’re paying a quarterback $35m a year.
Maybe it’s time to try adding some pure quality on the O-line to help him?
What about center?
If you could structure low year-one cap hits to make the most of a projected $118,526,756 to spend in 2022 — you might be able to entice Corey Linsley away from Green Bay (PFF projects a salary of $11m a year).
David Andrews and Alex Mack are other veteran options.
However, I would aim to draft Quinn Meinerz in round two to start at center. He was superb at the Senior Bowl and ticks all of the boxes in terms of size, length, frame, explosive traits, physicality and attitude. He’s 6-3 and 320lbs with an 82 inch wingspan and 33 inch arms. He has 10 2/8 inch hands. He can dunk a basketball.
Ali Marpet was also a small-school guy who dominated at the Senior Bowl. He had great length, athleticism and he was explosive. Marpet was the #61 pick in 2015. It’s very possible Meinerz could be the guy at #56 (if he lasts that long).
Landon Dickerson is a viable alternative if you trust his medical checks.
This is a draft class to target the interior O-line. There are multiple attractive options at various points in the draft — including Ben Cleveland, Aaron Banks, Alex Leatherwood and others.
Bring in a top-class running back
Why do you need to do this?
The Seahawks have never truly replaced Marshawn Lynch. Every runner they’ve tried since has either had health issues, been inconsistent or just bad.
They whiffed on Nick Chubb, a mistake that probably still keeps them awake at night.
They need someone who can carry the load, stay on the field and provide Russell Wilson with a complementary running game.
So who are you targeting?
I would be open to drafting a running back early.
A lot of people will cringe at that thought — and I get why. Trading Jamal Adams to get back into round one, only to use the pick on a running back? Sections of Seahawks twitter would go ballistic.
Well, let them.
Najee Harris is an exceptional player with star potential. I don’t think it’s a stretch to say he could join the likes of Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook and Nick Chubb as one of the best backs in the league.
While the Seahawks are featuring the running game as they are, I think adding someone like Harris — combined with a major investment in the O-line — would be a positive thing for the direction of this team.
It could unlock the true potential of the offense.
You’re also talking about a cap-hit for a starting running back that will be approximately $2m to start with and not surpass $4m for the next four years.
If Harris isn’t available, which is plausible, there are alternatives. We’ve talked a lot about Javonte Williams. He is the epitome of what the Seahawks look for in a runner and would be a fantastic addition. Personally, I think he will be a top-35 pick for sure. There’s also Travis Etienne — who had a slightly underwhelming 2020 season but has incredible explosive traits and speed to burn.
The thought of two big splashes on the O-line plus a new, dynamic feature runner excites me. Especially with Waldron coming in to coordinate the offense.
What about Chris Carson?
I think you leave the door open for Carson to return but strictly on a short-term contract with an appreciation that he will operate in a committee. The Seahawks were at their very best when they had a consistent, reliable, dominant runner. They can’t be babying Carson again to get him through a season.
If he moves on, my plan would be to bring back Mike Davis. He had a terrific 2020 season in Carolina. He was always very useful in Seattle. He can lead the rushing attack if needed but at the very least he’s a superb RB2.
I’d even be open to bringing Davis back as the starter if you wanted to go in a different direction in the draft.
Add two more weapons
If you save approximately $19m by trading Wagner and Adams and sign Scherff for a first-year cap hit of $8m — you still have money to spend in 2021.
I would try to bring in a cheap reclamation project at receiver such as John Ross. See if you can get a tune out of him and make the most of that 4.22 speed. Could you get him for $2m plus incentives? It’s a deep free agent market at receiver this year filled with big names who will soak up the early money.
I would also try to poach Gerald Everett from the Rams. PFF projects he will earn $5m a year. Offer him a three year contract with a lower year-one hit of approximately $3m. He’s familiar with Shane Waldren and the Rams’ way of doing things.
The Seahawks need a dynamic pass-catcher at tight end and Everett fits what they look for at the position. He ran a 4.33 short shuttle at the combine and a 6.99 three-cone. These are two tests they’ve paid a lot of attention over the years, as explained in my substantial combine preview a year ago.
So what are you left with after all this?
For the sake of sacrificing Wagner and Adams and trusting Brooks and Blair to start instead, you’ve transformed your offense.
Here’s what you’ve added…
Free agent additions:
Brandon Scherff
John Ross
Gerald Everett
Mike Davis
Draft additions:
Najee Harris, Javonte Williams or Travis Etienne
Quinn Meinerz
Additional O-line depth
My somewhat modest projection sees you create $19m in cap space, then spend approximately $15m on new signings in 2021.
If Everett’s contract is too rich — you probably just have to place your faith in Colby Parkinson and Will Dissly. There are also a couple of wildcard options in the draft. Notre Dame’s Tommy Tremble is a tremendous run blocker. Some have suggested he could be developed into a Kyle Juszczyk type full back.
At SPARQ he ran a 4.20 short shuttle and jumped a 36 inch vertical.
Tre McKitty is also a name to watch. He earned positive reviews for a consistent week at the Senior Bowl for his catching and blocking. While he’s not the fastest in terms of straight line speed, he ran a 4.13 short shuttle at SPARQ and jumped a 35 inch vertical.
Both could be available on day three, affording an opportunity to add depth and save money.
You could also target Pat ‘Baby Gronk’ Freiermuth earlier, or look at one of the dynamic slot receivers such as Elijah Moore of D’Wayne Eskridge.
Fill holes on the defense
There are still issues at linebacker and cornerback to resolve!
K.J. Wright and Shaquill Griffin are out of contract. You’re going to have to let them move on unless the price is surprisingly low.
The Seahawks went into the 2020 season paying Wager and Wright a combined $25m, on top of their first round investment in Jordyn Brooks having only recently traded up in round three for Cody Barton.
It’s simply too much for the linebacker position.
Unless Wright’s market is so cold that he’s willing to come back and finish his career in Seattle at an extremely reasonable price, it’s time to roll with Brooks and Barton — or bring in a cheap free agent or draft pick.
Big spending at linebacker hasn’t worked. Try something new.
The Niners have been able to find cheap, electric linebackers in the mid-to-late rounds. The Seahawks need to try and do the same.
It almost feels destined that Griffin will end up signing with the Jaguars and returning home to Florida. It would be a good fit for both parties.
I would like to find a way to bring back Richard Sherman to replace him. Perhaps on a two-year deal with a lower first year cap hit.
Sherman has earned $83m from his football contracts. I suspect there’s a compromise to be done here so he can finish in Seattle. That, to me, will probably be more important to Richard than a bit more money to play somewhere like Detroit.
I actually think this will happen. Bridges have not been burned in Seattle and just as it was with Marshawn Lynch in 2019, this is about more than money.
How are you going to fill other holes?
This is the point where I think you start working on contracts to free up more space. When you take Wagner’s $20.3m off the books in 2022 and you take away Adams’ likely $18-20m — you have so much more flexibility.
Jarran Reed’s cap hit is $13.5m next season. There’s a viable means to lower that through an extension if both parties are motivated to do so.
Carlos Dunlap’s cap hit is $14m in 2021. Again, I think at this point you could look to extend his deal to free up more space.
Committing 2022/23 salary to both is harder when you’re paying Wagner and Adams a combined $38-40m. Trade them and it’s plausible.
It may also be possible to work on a short extension for Duane Brown and/or Tyler Lockett.
Once you’ve found ways to create the room to fill out your roster, the approach should be to acquire cheap, hungry players in free agency.
Aren’t you just making the defense a bit… crap?
This is the compromise with this plan. It’s not without risk and by no means is the target to create a 2013-esque complete roster.
For me it’s about truly making the most of your investment in Wilson. It’s worth trying to be great on the O-line instead of linebacker and safety. I’m not even convinced the Seahawks have been ‘great’ at either position, despite the massive investment over the last two years.
I’ve set out to make the offense as dynamic as possible to help support the quarterback. The defense needs to be complementary.
How do you do that?
You challenge yourself to find the next D.J. Reed and Poona Ford. The next Quandre Diggs. The next Carlos Dunlap. The next Tony McDaniel if you can, or Chris Clemons.
Exploit opportunities. They’re going to be out there, especially this year. The league is facing a cap crunch. Some players will still get paid mega-money. The second and third wave of free agency, however, could be where a Championship is won in 2021.
Go big on offense initially. Then hunt for bargains on defense.
What’s the identity of the defense though with fewer stars?
Recreate the band-of-brothers. Set up a defense where ‘we all we got we all we need’ actually means something again.
It felt hollow listening to a former top recruit, who went to LSU, who was then drafted #6 overall say that phrase last season after an embarrassing defeat in Buffalo.
Red Bryant created it and it encapsulated everything about that blossoming LOB defense.
Jamal Adams saying it felt forced and wrong. It’s time to get a bunch of bandits on the defense who are fighting for their next pay cheque.
Re-create that 2010-11 mentality.
Maybe they can even come up with their own new slogan?
This isn’t a flawless plan, I’ll admit that. It isn’t without risk. This approach would excite me though.
I do think the Seahawks need to mix things up a bit. Every season finishes the same as the last one.
You know what they say about doing same thing over and over again but expecting different results…
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