Category: Scouting Report (Page 1 of 38)

Monday notes: Jaylon Ferguson and Marquise Brown

2019 was already going to be the year of the defensive linemen. Now, Tony Pauline has highlighted another first round candidate — LA Tech’s Jaylon Ferguson:

“Graded as a potential first round pick entering the season, he’s considered one of the best pass rushers from the senior class but has rounded out his game this season and developed into a terrific run defender. For the season Ferguson has totaled 59 tackles while amassing 23.5 tackles for loss and 15 sacks. Though I have my concerns about his instincts there’s no denying Ferguson’s tape is impressive and will push him into the early part of the draft.”

Before today I hadn’t studied Ferguson, which was a mistake. He leads the country in sacks and is second for TFL’s. He should’ve been on the radar.

I found one game on Youtube plus some highlights videos. It’s not enough to make a firm projection but it is enough to see the potential.

He isn’t Marcus Davenport. There’s a reason why the Saints spent two first round picks to get him. Davenport absolutely dominated at a small school level, looking like a grown man playing a bunch of High School opponents. Ferguson still flashes though. He’s incredibly quick lining up in a wider position and sprinting to the QB. He has a knack for forcing the ball out (six FF’s in the 2016 & 2018 seasons combined). He has quality length and ideal size. He can work in space with the agility and footwork to read a play and make a difficult tackle (handy in the modern NFL with all the sweeps and motions).

There was one snap where he did a tremendous job bending the arc with perfect lean and balance to straighten and get to the quarterback. Quickness off the snap, the athleticism to turn the corner and explosion to finish. It was a big time play. On another snap he beat the right tackle with ease, just shimmying past him to get into the backfield and recover a fumble. There’s evidence of a neat push/pull move. Sometimes he’ll lock-on and control an offensive tackle to seal the edge. There’s plenty of power in his punch.

There are areas he needs to improve too. His reading of certain plays is poor. There are times when he’s too aggressive. You seem him slam into the left tackle with a thunderous punch — but he ends up battling with the LT in a wrestling match instead of using the jolt to disengage and look for the ball carrier. His gap discipline suffers because of his aggression. Sometimes he gets his head down and tries too hard to attack a gap, even when the play doesn’t call for it. Then at times he seems a little bit hesitant — an odd contrast to the times he’s a little too aggressive. On one occasion in the game I watched (vs FAU) he was easily handled 1v1 by a running back.

On first viewing there’s plenty of potential here. Ideal size, great power, some hints at top-end quickness and twitch. There are technical flaws that need fixing. As always, his combine will be interesting. Can he copy another LA Tech D-liner Vernon Butler and have a great Senior Bowl to secure a day one grade?

Ferguson is another name to add to the list of possible first rounders.

And it’s a truly ridiculous list.

All of the following could easily go in round one:

Nick Bosa, Ed Oliver, Clelin Ferrell, Quinnen Williams, Christian Wilkins, Raekwon Davis, Derrick Brown, Rashan Gary, Dexter Lawrence, Jachai Polite, Zach Allen, Josh Allen, Brian Burns, Dre’Mont Jones, Jerry Tillery.

I think there’s at least a fair chance D’Andre Walker (a personal favourite) and Austin Bryant find a home in the first frame too. There are likely other names who could come into contention. Miami’s Joe Jackson for example — or Gerald Willis. Or Florida’s Jabari Zuniga. I wouldn’t even completely eliminate Alabama’s Christian Miller as a possible top-50 alternative.

It’s remarkable really. In a year with so little in the way of quarterbacks, cornerbacks, offensive tackles and other positions too — there’s this enormous list of quality defensive linemen.

Wherever the Seahawks pick — and it’ll be no earlier than #21 overall if they make the playoffs — they should be able to identify someone they like. And after the last few weeks, it’s clear the defense needs some help in 2019. Whether it’s an athletic EDGE, a monster at defensive tackle or an inside/out rusher — the options are there.

It’s always possible they’ll trade down, of course. After all they only own four picks.

I’m not just going to hammer the D-line point home for the next five months and never consider any other alternatives. So here’s one today. If they trade down aggressively and perhaps miss out on the top defensive linemen, is Oklahoma’s Marquise ‘Hollywood’ Brown an option?

For years people have talked about Seattle’s lack of (or need for) a big target for Russell Wilson. They flirted with it when they traded for Jimmy Graham. Then they spent two years trying to make him a complete tight end, before reducing his role to basically ‘red zone specialist’. Aside from that, Wilson has always seemed more comfortable with a dynamic, quicker receiver than a jump-ball specialist.

Wilson is naturally quite conservative as a thrower. He picks his moments. He’s not a gunslinger. The offense calls for a point guard and Wilson handles the role very well. He’s explosive and can make the big plays — he merely endeavours to do it at opportune moments.

He’s never really been one to throw multiple targets to a well-covered big receiver and let them go and make the play. It doesn’t mean he never takes those chances. It just feels like he prefers to see clear daylight in coverage or an obvious mismatch. Just look at the success he’s had with Doug Baldwin — adept at getting open and creating separation.

Have the Seahawks noted and identified this? Perhaps. Carroll himself has admitted his love for a dynamic big target. He’s even more or less suggested he’s been hunting for one in the past. Yet look at their draft history over the years:

2013 — traded for Percy Harvin
2014 — drafted Paul Richardson with their first pick
2015 — drafted Tyler Lockett with their second pick

There’s a trend. Harvin, Richardson and Lockett were all smaller, dynamic and sudden receivers. Playmakers.

When Richardson departed in free agency this year, they went out and replaced him with Jaron Brown. At the Clemson pro-day in 2013, Brown ran a 4.40 and had great numbers in the vertical (35.5 inches) and broad (10-4). He’s a bit bigger (6-2) but in the same ballpark. Quick, lean and sudden.

If the Seahawks add another receiver it could easily be another smaller, extremely dynamic target. At the end of the day, the Seahawks want to run the ball but they also want explosive plays in the passing game. Downfield shots — major yardage. Receivers like Marquise Brown provide that.

John Schneider attended the Oklahoma vs West Virginia game on Friday.

If you’re averaging 150 yards a game with the run and you’ve got two dynamic downfield threats at receiver — plus the brilliance of Baldwin and David Moore — that’s a good looking offense.

And having planted that thought in your brain, I’ll finish with this. Their priority should still be to improve the defense. They tried to close the circle with their running game this year. The defense is keeping the circle open. Too many explosive plays conceded, inconsistent run defense, not enough pass rush. It’s been too easy for opponents in some games.

Improving the defense has to be the priority in the off-season. This draft is set up for doing just that. I like Brown but he’d be a luxury with the defensive needs.

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Thanksgiving Day mock draft

Happy Thanksgiving to the SDB community. Here’s an updated mock draft. Plus don’t forget to check out the ‘Tasteful Profanity’ podcast appearance if you missed it earlier in the week.

#1 San Francisco — Nick Bosa (DE, Ohio State)
It’s hard to imagine anyone knocking Bosa off the #1 spot. He’s a complete pass rusher and looks even quicker than his brother.

#2 Arizona — Ed Oliver (DT, Houston)
Teams will be split on whether Oliver’s frame and play translates well to the next level. A fantastic combine, however, could secure a top-five grade. He has 13.5 TFL’s this season.

#3 Oakland — Clelin Ferrell (DE, Clemson)
Ideal size, length, attitude and production. A high pick in any draft, Ferrell has 10.5 sacks and 16 TFL’s in 2018.

#4 New Yok Jets — Devin White (LB, LSU)
The Jets could use a pass rusher but might look to free agency for a big splurge. If that’s the case, the ultra-consistent and highly athletic Devin White is a fit here.

#5 New York Giants — Quinnen Williams (DT, Alabama)
He was unstoppable against LSU. He has 15 TFL’s this season. He might last to #5 if teams are concerned about his one year of production and age (he’s 19).

#6 Buffalo — Christian Wilkins (DT, Clemson)
Fantastic player. Like Deshaun Watson, familiarity is breeding contempt. He has the ideal frame to play inside and rush. Great character, expect a great combine.

#7 Tampa Bay — Rashan Gary (DE, Michigan)
So far he hasn’t played up to his recruiting hype or physical potential. In this draft, however, someone will gamble early on his tremendous upside.

#8 Jacksonville — Derrick Brown (DT, Auburn)
Incredible talent. Brown bosses offensive linemen and put in a star turn against Texas A&M recently. A complete defensive tackle who plays the run well and gets after the quarterback.

#9 Cleveland — Raekwon Davis (DT, Alabama)
Davis is an absolute monster. Huge size (6-7, 316lbs) and very quick. He can control things from the inside and still get after the QB. There aren’t many humans like this.

#10 Detroit — Greedy Williams (CB, LSU)
Williams is far from the finished product but he’s the cornerback with the most upside in this class. Someone will take him early.

#11 Atlanta — David Edwards (T, Wisconsin)
There isn’t a top-12 left tackle prospect this year. David Edwards is a cerebral individual — a typically hard-nosed, Wisconsin right tackle. Very solid, if unspectacular.

#12 Denver — Dexter Lawrence (DT, Clemson)
Lawrence was superb against Duke last weekend, making numerous plays in the backfield and showing he’s more than just a nose tackle. Another top talent in a loaded D-line class.

#13 Philadelphia — Jachai Polite (EDGE, Florida)
Polite has two things going for him — a relentless motor and speed. He regularly faces double teams and still has 8.5 sacks and 12.5 TFL’s for the season.

#14 Green Bay — Josh Allen (EDGE, Kentucky)
Is he a pure 3-4 OLB? Will teams run right at him if he plays up at the LOS? These are fair questions but Allen can get after the QB. He has 13 sacks and 17.5 TFL’s in 2018.

#15 Indianapolis — Zach Allen (DE, Boston College)
He’s taken his game to another level this year. Allen is a bigger bodied DE or inside/out rusher with surprising quickness and agility. He has 14.5 TFL’s.

#16 Miami — Greg Little (T, Ole Miss)
He’s a bit stiff at times and struggles against speed. I’ve been saying since the summer he could kick inside to make better use of his obvious physical qualities.

#17 Oakland (via Dallas) — Dre’Mont Jones (DT, Ohio State)
Jones’ play against the run is a concern but there’s no denying his ability as a penetrating force. He has 12.5 TFL’s and 7.5 sacks in 2018 — a big improvement on last year.

#18 Tennessee — Brian Burns (EDGE, Florida State)
I read recently he’s playing in the 220’s this year. Ouch. That’s a concern. He’s thin and wiry. He’s also very quick with 15.5 TFL’s and 10 sacks. The weight issue could put some teams off.

#19 Seattle — D’Andre Walker (LB, Georgia)
Walker is underrated. He’s extremely strong and capable of playing the run as an EDGE. He can rush the passer. He’s very comfortable dropping in coverage and he’s extremely physical. Watch the video at the top of the page to see what he’s about.

#20 Cincinnati — Jeffrey Simmons (DT, Mississippi State)
Someone will end up taking Simmons quite early. That team will probably be the Bengals. It’s always the Bengals.

#21 Baltimore — Jerry Tillery (DT, Notre Dame)
Tillery has incredible size and he’s a force when he gets going. He has seven sacks and 9.5 TFL’s this season as a 6-7, 305lbs interior defender.

#22 Minnesota — Byron Murphy (CB, Washington)
Murphy glides to the ball carrier with excellent quickness, he’s a hard hitter and he covers ground quickly. Could he be tried at safety? Maybe.

#23 Washington — Drew Lock (QB, Missouri)
The first quarterback off the board. Lock has a strong arm but he can be inconsistent. It’s not a year to go searching for a solution at QB in the draft.

#24 Houston — Damien Harris (RB, Alabama)
Harris is a superb player who deserves to go earlier. He does everything well — run, receive, protect. He’s extremely explosive and tough. Like him a lot.

#25 Carolina — Taylor Rapp (S, Washington)
Rapp ran a 4.09 short shuttle at the SPARQ combine and you see his combination of agility and quickness on tape. He could easily sneak into the back-end of round one.

#26 Oakland (via Chicago) — A.J. Brown (WR, Ole Miss)
The first receiver off the board. Brown makes plays and competes for the ball but is he a good enough athlete to go earlier than this?

#27 Los Angeles Chargers — Kaden Smith (TE, Stanford)
Smith can develop into an all-round tight end capable of blocking and providing an X-factor in the passing game. He ran a 4.30 short shuttle at 6-6 and 242lbs during SPARQ testing.

#28 New England — Daniel Jones (QB, Duke)
Even in a defeat, Jones was impressive against Clemson. He has the look and feel of a Patriots quarterback. It’d be a good fit.

#29 Pittsburgh — Austin Bryant (EDGE, Clemson)
Bryant started slowly but has really started to perform for Clemson in recent weeks. He lacks size but screams off the edge to make plays in the backfield.

#30 Green Bay — Jonah Williams (G, Alabama)
Williams lacks the length to play tackle at the next level and really could do with kicking inside. I’m not sold on him as a first round pick.

#31 Kansas City — Colton McKivitz (T, West Virginia)
When you watch West Virginia, McKivitz is the O-liner who stands out. He does get beat from time to time but with a need for linemen, someone might take him to play right tackle.

#32 Los Angeles Rams — Elgton Jenkins (C, Mississippi State)
Jenkins had a really rough afternoon against Quinnen Williams but he’s highly regarded and could be the first center off the board.

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First 2019 NFL mock draft

The purpose of this mock was to highlight a few names, reflect on where I think certain players will land and create a discussion about the strengths and weaknesses of the draft.

It seems very clear, even at this early stage, that the following is true:

— There is not a clear-cut top-10 quarterback this year and any QB taken in the first frame will likely be a hail mary on physical talent/potential

— There is a distinct lack of first round options at the skill positions and O-line

— There is a lot of depth in the defensive front seven, particularly the defensive line

— You will struggle to find value in the top 10

This isn’t necessarily a good year to pick early. The likes of Nick Bosa warrant a top five pick in any draft. Yet the dearth of talent at certain premium positions (namely QB and OT) will make this an unappealing class for rebuilding (or bad) teams.

I don’t think it looks like a particularly deep draft at the moment. We’re a long way away from the Senior Bowl and combine. Opinions can change after those two events. I’ve said it before — it might not be the worst year for the Seahawks to only own four picks. I suspect they will find a way to acquire more.

I also believe the substantial group of potential first round defensive linemen in 2019 is further evidence of the top High School athletes electing to play defense. It’s hard to identify draftable offensive linemen in college. It’s extremely difficult. And yet look at the cluster of prospective first round defensive linemen. It’s a problem for the league. It has been for a while. And it’s why it’s vital the Seahawks keep their current O-line together.

This is a top-25 mock for now…

#1 New York Giants — Nick Bosa (DE, Ohio State)
For me Bosa’s the clear choice at #1 even with New York’s need for a quarterback. There just isn’t a QB worth taking at #1 — even if the bigger names like Justin Herbert declare. Bosa’s a complete pass rusher and has shown even more potential than his brother.

#2 Oakland Raiders — Clelin Ferrell (DE, Clemson)
Exactly what you look for in a 4-3 base end. He has the length, the ideal size and the ability to win with his hands, the bull rush or a speed rush to the outside. Ferrell can kick inside, he can play in space. He already has 12.5 TFL’s and 7.5 sacks this season.

#3 San Francisco 49ers — Devin White (LB, LSU)
This is early for a linebacker but White will start in the NFL for over a decade and instantly become a household name. He’s a tone-setter, he’s extremely quick and consistent. He was recruited as an athlete in High School and scored 122.19 at the SPARQ testing. He’ll blow up the combine.

#4 Buffalo Bills — Quinnen Williams (DT, Alabama)
Williams had a legendary performance against LSU, recording 2.5 sacks and 3.5 TFL’s. He was unblockable and took over the game and was clearly the best player on the field. Every NFL team will salivate over the tape of that game. If he declares, he goes very early.

#5 Arizona Cardinals — Ed Oliver (DT, Houston)
Oliver is a fantastic athlete but teams will have to determine where he fits at the next level. He’s not Aaron Donald. He’s a 275lbs defensive tackle with great quickness but can you really trust him to play inside full time? He doesn’t have the frame to play defensive end.

#6 Cleveland Browns — Christian Wilkins (DT, Clemson)
Teams are going to love Wilkins. His personality, his production, his frame, his combine testing. To me he ticks every box for a high pick and there aren’t many prototype three-techniques like this. He’s being knocked, unfairly, in the same way Deshaun Watson was knocked. Familiarity breeds contempt.

#7 New York Jets — Brian Burns (EDGE, Florida State)
Burns has played with his hair on fire all season, despite FSU having a miserable year. He’s long and very lean and there might be concerns about his weight. He’ll need to bulk up. Even so, he’s extremely quick and aggressive and has 13.5 TFL’s and nine sacks in 2018.

#8 Denver Broncos — Drew Lock (QB, Missouri)
Lock has a rocket arm and was touted as a potential first round pick this year before he opted to stay at Mizzou. Desperate teams searching for a first round QB might decide he’s their best bet. And they’ll use his ‘signature’ win against Florida to reassure themselves.

#9 Indianapolis Colts — Raekwon Davis (DT, Alabama)
He’s not getting the same numbers as Quinnen Williams but there just aren’t many human beings on the planet with his size (6-7, 316lbs) and quickness. He can control the LOS and work against the run but he has the ability to break into the backfield and make plays.

#10 Oakland Raiders (via Dallas) — David Edwards (T, Wisconsin)
Teams are always looking for good offensive tackles. There aren’t going to be many available in 2019. Edwards will end up being considered the best of the bunch. He’s a pure right tackle but he’s aggressive and consistent. Teams will like his attitude.

#11 Detroit Lions — Derrick Brown (DT, Auburn)
Brown was absolutely outstanding against Texas A&M last weekend. He’s a complete defensive tackle — with the size to hold his own in the running game and a fantastic get-off, swim/rip combo and bull rush to be an effective pass rusher. Underrated.

#12 Jacksonville Jaguars — Jachai Polite (EDGE, Florida)
Polite often gets double-teamed as opponents key in on Florida’s best defensive player. There might be concerns about his size and length but a good combine should allay those fears. He has a ton of potential, should record a fast 10-yard split and plays with ferocious effort.

#13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Greedy Williams (CB, LSU)
Williams isn’t targeted often which is to his credit in college but it also makes it hard to judge his development. Going into the season he looked like a raw player with great potential. Has he taken the next step? It’s hard to say. But he plays a premium position and looks the part.

#14 Green Bay Packers — Rashan Gary (DE, Michigan)
A big-time recruit back in the day, Gary looks like Jadeveon Clowney in terms of his frame. Unfortunately, he doesn’t play much like Clowney. He’s underwhelmed a bit and has been hurt in recent weeks. Still, he has major upside potential and fits any scheme.

#15 Baltimore Ravens — Zach Allen (DE, Boston College)
Allen has been a revelation this season. He’s big and stout but also has great quickness and the ability to win with his hands, speed or power. He looks like a stud. A good combine will secure a high grade. Watch him against Clemson this weekend.

#16 Tennessee Titans — Dexter Lawrence (DT, Clemson)
Big, athletic nose tackle who ran a 5.03 forty at 335lbs in High School. Players with this level of size and athleticism always go early. Like Wilkins, he gets marked down because people are just so familiar with him. Lawrence is a tremendous talent and could go earlier than this.

#17 Seattle Seahawks — D’Andre Walker (DE/LB, Georgia)
Explosive and quick, Walker is highly underrated. He has five sacks this season, plays with great aggression and speed. He’s 6-3 and 245lbs but does an incredible job setting the edge vs the run. He ran a 4.16 short shuttle at SPARQ testing (similar to Leighton Vander Esch).

#18 Philadelphia Eagles — Greg Little (T, Ole Miss)
I think Little’s best position will be guard. That said, someone might be willing to give him a shot at left tackle. It’s the position he plays in college. He was highly recruited in High School. He doesn’t particularly jump off the screen but he’s probably the next best after David Edwards.

#19 Atlanta Falcons — Dre’Mont Jones (DT, Ohio State)
Jones has issues defending the run. He might even be a liability there at the next level. Yet as a pass rusher he’s excelled this season. He’s taken a big step forward. This year he has 6.5 sacks. In 2017 he had just one sack. He just looks better.

#20 Miami Dolphins — Steven Montez (QB, Colorado)
Colorado’s season is starting to fall apart but not much blame can be apportioned to Montez. He has great size and mobility, tremendous deep accuracy and if you’re going to take a shot on a quarterback in this kind of range, he’s worth it.

#21 Minnesota Vikings — Byron Murphy (CB, Washington)
Gritty defensive back with great suddenness and an ability to fly to the ball. Could be tried at corner or safety at the next level. A lack of size will put off some teams but he’s a very talented defender with a bright future.

#22 Washington Redskins — Josh Allen (EDGE, Kentucky)
Allen’s having a huge season with 14.5 TFL’s and 10 sacks. He also has five forced fumbles and four pass break-ups. Georgia seemed to target him in the running game though. Can he set the edge in the way D’Andre Walker can? Not sure. He might have to be a pure 3-4 OLB.

#23 Cincinnati Bengals — Jeffrey Simmons (DT, Mississippi State)
For a long time I didn’t think Simmons would be drafted early. Google his name and you’ll find out why. Then I remembered the Bengals exist. And if there’s one team that will probably be more than happy to draft Simmons, it’ll be Cincy.

#24 Houston Texans — Kaden Smith (TE, Stanford)
Smith is the player that has stood out to me when watching Stanford this year. He’s athletic and mobile at the second level and a true mismatch. He’s a solid blocker too. If he tests well at the combine he can secure a high grade.

#25 Oakland Raiders (from Chicago) — Damien Harris (RB, Alabama)
In terms of talent, Harris deserves to go earlier than this. He’s a complete running back. Ideal size, explosive traits, shiftiness, breakaway speed, toughness, home-run ability. He’s a total stud and Alabama should use him more.

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2019 draft: Early projections for 30 prospects

The stated aim in the off-season was to fix the run. It’s fixed. The offensive line is a team strength and looks terrific. The Seahawks offense is physical and explosive. It’s fair to wonder whether they would benefit from another dynamic target. Generally though, this is a unit they can win with.

The defense will need some help going forward.

That’s where the 2019 draft comes in.

We’ve said it so many times already — this is going to be a fantastic defensive line class. We could see a record number of front seven defenders taken in the first round. It’ll be the clear strength of the draft. The Seahawks, wherever they pick in round one, should be able to find a defensive linemen or linebacker they like.

With money to spend in free agency we could see an off-season plan like this:

1. Re-sign Frank Clark

No wonder it’s been the reported priority. Clark is showing he’s worthy of keeping. He’s developing into a leader to match fantastic production and consistency. He’s a must-keep and a new deal seems inevitable.

2. At least one free agent splash

To me, Jadeveon Clowney remains the most appealing option. He’s a freakish athlete with true game-breaking ability. If you’re going to spend, pay someone with the potential to be great. Yes he’s had some injury issues — but you’d hope to create a dynamic rotation. Clowney doesn’t even turn 26 until late February.

3. Spend your first pick on a front seven defender

This could be a linebacker depending on what happens with K.J. Wright and Mychal Kendricks. Ideally Wright returns quickly and finishes the year strongly, or Kendricks avoids jail and you keep one if not both. If that happens you can focus on an interior pass rusher or someone with great speed to rush the EDGE. It feels like that’s something that’s missing. Speed. Someone with that great 1.5 10-yard split. A combination of Clark, Clowney, Rasheem Green and then some speed — that’d be a killer rotation. The elusive interior rush-threat would also provide a major boost.

We’re well into the college football season now so here are my October gradings for 30 players. Notice the sheer number of possible options to fill the needs discussed above.

Early first round

Nick Bosa (DE, Ohio State)
Clelin Ferrell (DE, Clemson)
Ed Oliver (DT, Houston)
Devin White (LB, LSU)
Christian Wilkins (DT, Clemson)
Brian Burns (DE, Florida State)

For me these are the standouts so far and the players most likely to go early in round one (top-10 range)

In a year without a highly touted quarterback prospect, Nick Bosa has to be the favourite to go #1 overall. Bosa, Clelin Ferrell and Ed Oliver would be potential top-five picks in any draft class. Devin White was recruited as an ‘athlete’ by LSU with a 122.19 SPARQ rating (the highest of the ‘athletes’ tested). He’s a class-act and a pillar of consistency. Christian Wilkins is somehow underrated by some but his play, personality and expected combine performance should secure a place near the top of round one. Brian Burns warrants such a high mark. He’s been unstoppable at times — with great length, quickness and production (seven sacks, 9.5 TFL’s).

Good chance of the first round

Steven Montez (QB, Colorado)
Dexter Lawrence (DT, Clemson)
Raekwon Davis (DT, Alabama)
David Edwards (T, Wisconsin)
Jachai Polite (DE, Florida)

This group could go very early but I’m listing them as ‘expected first round prospects’ based on what I’ve seen so far

Quarterback Steven Montez is the real deal. Great size, mobility, deep accuracy and he can innovate. He’s elevating Colorado to a new level. He’s a first round talent and the clear #1 quarterback prospect. Dexter Lawrence is a monster — an athletic nose tackle who could work his way into the top-12. You’d like to see a bit more production from Raekwon Davis but he has Calais Campbell size with a little more quickness. David Edwards is the best offensive line prospect albeit strictly as a right tackle. Jachai Polite is an X-factor player and one to watch for Seattle. He’s extremely quick and relentless and LSU double teamed him all day on Sunday. Polite still made plays.

First round potential

D’Andre Walker (LB, Georgia)
Derrick Brown (DT, Auburn)
Rashan Gary (DE, Michigan)
Dre’Mont Jones (DT, Ohio State)
Damien Harris (RB, Alabama)
Greg Little (T, Ole Miss)

This group are a notch below the second tier but still have a really good chance to go in the first round

D’Andre Walker is fantastic. Really aggressive, quick to the ball and a top candidate to play SAM/LEO. Derrick Brown is also a physical presence albeit inside. His best football is yet to come. Rashan Gary flatters to deceive sometimes but there’s no doubting his physical potential. Dre’Mont Jones has really flashed as a pass rusher this season. Damien Harris is a long time favourite a complete running back. Greg Little is the next best offensive lineman after the superb David Edwards.

Possible top-50

Kaden Smith (TE, Stanford)
Isaiah Buggs (DE, Alabama)
Austin Bryant (DE, Clemson)
Zach Allen (DE, Boston College)
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (CB/S, Florida)
Josh Allen (LB, Kentucky)
Greedy Williams (CB, LSU)
Joe Jackson (DE, Miami)
A.J. Brown (WR, Ole Miss)
Taylor Rapp (S, Washington)
Bryce Love (RB, Stanford)
Jerry Tillery (DT, Notre Dame)
Benny Snell Jr (RB, Kentucky)

This group could go in the first round but the top-50 is very possible

It’s not a good year for tight ends again but Kaden Smith has a chance to go in round one. He’s a big, athletic target and a capable blocker. Isaiah Buggs has the size to play the run superbly but has also been a pass rush terror so far (six sacks, 6.5 TFL’s). Austin Bryant completes the big-name Clemson quartet but he’s had a quieter last couple of games. Zach Allen is really quick for his size and is having a great season. Testing will be key for him.

Chauncey Gardner-Johnson has switched from free safety to the nickel this year and he had a tremendous game against LSU on Saturday. He could play either position at the next level. Josh Allen has made a lot of plays for Kentucky (10.5 TFL’s) but his testing results will determine how early he goes as a 3-4 rusher. Greedy Williams looks the part but isn’t quite the finished article. Joe Jackson is quietly making a lot of plays for Miami.

A.J. Brown is a real weapon for Ole Miss but it’s hard to shake his 27.5 inch vertical at the SPARQ combine. He’ll need to do better in the pro version. Taylor Rapp and Greg Gaines are both really fun to watch on the Washington defense. Bryce Love is an electric runner but can he handle a big workload at his size? Keep an eye on Benny Snell Jr at Kentucky — he’s really good. Jerry Tillery is having a big year as a disruptive interior force for Notre Dame (nine TFL’s).

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Breaking down the draft class: Jamarco Jones

PFF really liked Jamarco Jones (click here). So much so, according to this video they graded him as a second round talent:

So why didn’t he go in the second round?

I think there are two reasons.

Firstly, it’s his combine performance. TEF has helped us quantify the number of truly explosive offensive vs defensive linemen entering the league in recent years:

Explosive offensive linemen at the combine:

2016 — 6
2017 — 3
2018 — 7

Explosive defensive linemen at the combine:

2016 — 26
2017 — 30
2018 — 22

This is an era of football where the best college athletes are playing defense. John Schneider references this all the time. It’s a problem that exists, it’s hurting the league and they need a solution.

Offensive tackles with fantastic physical profiles are going to be over-drafted for the foreseeable future as teams look for that solution. Kolton Miller is a fine example. He had a Lane Johnson-esque combine. He didn’t play like Johnson at UCLA but found a home in the top-20 because his combination of size, length, agility and explosive traits is all too uncommon at his position these days.

Jamarco Jones is a lot more Orlando Brown than Kolton Miller as an athlete.

Here’s his combine performance:

Height: 6-4
Weight: 299lbs
Forty: 5.50
Bench: DNP
Vertical: 24 inches
Broad: 8-6
Three-cone: 8.32
Short shuttle: 4.92

At least Orlando Brown had the excuse of being 345lbs. Incredibly, he comprehensively beat Jones in the three-cone (7.87).

Jones had the third worst vertical, third worst forty, third worst short shuttle and third worst three cone among offensive linemen.

Seattle’s starting left tackle in 2018 (Duane Brown) ran a 4.52 short shuttle, a 7.58 three cone and a 5.08 forty (despite carrying an extra 16lbs).

That’s the main reason why Jones dropped to round five. This is a league crying out for an athletic counter punch to the extreme athleticism playing defense. His combine performance likely took him off a number of draft boards.

In his NFL.com bio, an anonymous NFC Executive is quoted as saying:

“His Combine was awful. He athletic testing was reject level. It’s hard to trust a tackle to start if he has reject level testing.”

What’s the other reason he dropped?

I’ll come back to it. I want to talk about the positives first.

When Jones connects, he usually wins. There are numerous examples I could show you where he engages the block and finishes. His hand placement, power and toughness are all commendable. If he gets his hands on you, it’s very difficult to disengage or counter.

I watched three games (Iowa, USC, Michigan) and never saw an instance where he overextended and lost balance. It’s impressive at the level he played and the opponents he played against. In the BIG-10 you don’t see many elite speed rushers but you see a lot of power and physicality. He matched up perfectly well and didn’t lose many hand battles. He often deals the first blow, delivers a jacked-up punch and finishes. He’s precise with his hand placement and the punch carries precision and power. He won nearly every battle I saw where he connected with the defender.

I didn’t see him beaten by a bull rush either. There were a couple of occasions against Michigan where he was jolted back. Against Iowa I noted a snap where he was moderately pushed back into the pocket. He simply dropped the anchor and held the defender at bay long enough for the quarterback to make a clean throw.

You see a lot of snaps like this vs Rasheem Green. He connects, finishes and it’s job done:

For the most part he handles his business. I could show you multiple videos of standard pass sets where he connects and finishes. If you were wondering why he started for Ohio State despite such a poor combine, clips like this will shed some light:

He is also able to move people in the running game. He had one nice snap against Iowa where he engaged the defender at the LOS and drove him back five yards on 2nd and 3, paving the way for the running back to get a first down. He’s not a tone setting mauler per se but he was reasonable in the short yardage game and his ability to connect and finish is a positive here too.

There are examples of second-level willingness and effectiveness:

There’s also evidence of handy double team work and there were examples where he passed off one defender inside to cover a stunting pass-rusher attacking the edge. His awareness and level of comfort were impressive.

Yet he has one maddening major technical flaw I can’t get my head around.

Play inside out. Don’t get beat inside. Make sure the DE has to get you outside. Especially when you have 35 1/8 inch arms.

Too often Jones was beaten inside. I don’t know why Ohio State didn’t fix this. They didn’t come up against many great speed rushers. In the three games I watched there were multiple examples where Jones dropped too deep in his kick slide and got beat inside. He left the gate wide open. He was susceptible to a counter (spin move) or simple invited the DE to pressure the quarterback:

Was he concerned about the edge rush too much, anticipating problems against speed and overcompensating? If so, someone really needed to address this and make it clear — let that guy beat you with speed. You have the length. Make his route to the quarterback as long as possible. Trust the QB to make the throw. You’re Ohio State. You have an experienced QB and numerous playmakers.

I can’t think of any other reason why he kept leaving the B gap open to be exploited. But it’s where he was beaten. And sadly, he doesn’t have the athletic profile to recover and counter.

He needs to eliminate this from his game. He has fantastic, ideal length for the position. There are examples where he just shoves a DE to protect the arc. Use their speed to their disadvantage, use your length to run them out of the play. Don’t leave yourself open to get beat inside.

Jones was a good blocker in college with a technical flaw. That’s fixable. His athletic profile is more of a concern. A pro-training program should help. It might take time though. And he’ll need to show improvement.

His athletic limitations could be a death knell to any future starting potential. However, if he can learn to play inside out and with his ability to lock on and finish — there’s at least something to work with. It was worth a fifth round pick to find out and if he ends up being no more than a reasonable backup tackle — that’s worth a day three flier any year.

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Breaking down the draft class: Poona Ford

Seattle’s Super Bowl team wasn’t built on first round picks. They were a bunch of disrespected and under-appreciated players with a point to prove.

The early picks played their part, especially Earl Thomas, Russell Okung and Bruce Irvin. But the Seahawks succeeded because they found star players in unlikely areas. A franchise quarterback in round three, a lockdown corner in round five, a #1 receiver as an undrafted free agent, a legendary running back on the scrap heap in Buffalo.

Many of those players had clear talent. They simply didn’t fit in with conventional NFL wisdom. They were too short, too big, too slow, too difficult. The Seahawks gave them a chance to show they could excel anyway.

Poona Ford is in exactly the same situation.

I don’t often do write-ups on undrafted free agents. The Seahawks signed a bunch immediately after the draft. Two of the most talked about signings were Ka’Raun White and Taj Williams, two receivers. Both were cut almost immediately.

A draft pick will get a little more leeway.

In Ford’s case though, I wanted to put something together. I’ve already written about Shaquem Griffin here and it’s going to be hard to assess Michael Dickson and Tre Flowers. I’m no expert on punting and Flowers played safety for Oklahoma State. It’s hard enough to judge safeties using TV copy tape. It’s even harder to judge a cornerback convert.

So for that reason I thought I’d write about Ford — a player we often projected to the Seahawks in our seven round mocks.

Perhaps more than any of Seattle’s undrafted free agents, it feels like he has two things working for him:

1. A familiar burning desire to prove a point and a major chip on his shoulder

2. A worthwhile skill set, undersold by a lack of conventional size

Russell Wilson was too short. Richard Sherman too tall and slow. Kam Chancellor needed to convert to linebacker.

Players with something to offer — they just didn’t match a consensus positional ideal within the league.

For Ford, it’s his height.

You don’t see many 5-11 defensive tackles in college or the NFL. We’re seeing increasingly bigger, faster and more athletic interior linemen.

Ford can play. He didn’t suffer due to a lack of attention. He played for Texas. It’s just unusual to look at a 5-11 defensive tackle. The NFL isn’t looking for that.

Where does he fit in?

Is he a possible three technique or is he mainly a space-eating one tech? Does he have the necessary sand in his pants (303lbs) if you want him to play the nose?

The thing is, there is a lot to work with. And Ford has an unusual attribute that might make teams really regret their decision not to take a flyer on him in the later rounds.

Yes — Ford is 5-11. However, he does have 33 inch arms and a +80 inch wingspan. That isn’t normal. He has longer arms than Vita Vea and Taven Bryan. They’re 6-4 and 6-5 respectively.

In an interior battle, this is a fantastic weapon.

Ford’s height actually becomes something of a positive. Because he isn’t 6-4, offensive linemen are going to find it hard to win with leverage. There isn’t the big target to punch and jolt. You’ll struggle to get into his pads. The lower man usually wins in the trenches and Ford, by his nature, will often be the lower man.

The problem for shorter DT’s (at least the ones without the quickness of Aaron Donald or the explosive qualities of Sheldon Rankins) is they can often be overpowered. This is especially difficult if they have short arms. Even if you’re the lower man — if the other guy can keep you off his frame easily, you’re not going to win many battles.

Ford’s length and height will mean he’s not only able to win with leverage — he also has the length to hand-fight and combat guards/centers.

He’s not the most explosive tester or the quickest. That will be the challenge. At the next level can he still do all of the things we saw at the Shrine Game and Senior Bowl?

At the very least he has a shot.

Case in point — watch him vs Will Hernandez (drafted #34 overall):

Hernandez has 32 inch arms. You can clearly see Ford engage, swim and get off the block. This snap highlights Hernandez’s occasional laboured footwork and he can’t recover. Ford wins, he’s into the backfield and absolutely nails the quarterback.

If he can win like this against Hernandez, a player the New York Giants liked enough to take with the second pick in round two, he has a chance to stick in the league.

Leverage really matters and this is going to be Ford’s calling card. His height and length make him a really unique player. Here’s another snap from the Senior Bowl. Look at the way he gets into the pads of the O-liner and just drives him deep into the backfield:

Can he counter? Yes he can:

Here’s another angle. It’s against Bradley Bozeman, the Alabama center:

When you see a snap like that, it’s hard to imagine how he went undrafted. Ford had a great Senior Bowl week:

And it merely followed up a stand-out performance at the Shrine Game:

Here’s what Tony Pauline noted about Ford at the Shrine Game:

Ford was not as dominant as Senat yet was pretty darn good. He was probably quicker off the snap, played with better leverage and displayed a wider variety of moves. He was impossible to stop and even hammered bigger opponents such as Cody O’Connell of Washington State on occasion. Ford has size and scheme limitations but will be playing on Sundays next year, which is pretty amazing considering he wasn’t even graded by scouts entering the season.

The size (height) and scheme issue is why he went undrafted. He isn’t going to be a five technique, he might not be able to anchor your run defense. He’s probably out for the 3-4 teams. You’re going to need him to be able to rush the passer at his size.

This isn’t a talent issue. It’s a conventional wisdom issue. One that might prevent him from having a successful pro career. But he offers a lot — he might just need an opportunity.

Here’s further evidence of his first-step quickness and then power/leverage to drive his blocker into the backfield:

It’s very hard to understand why someone didn’t give him a shot on day three.

And then there’s the chip on his shoulder. Why wasn’t he invited to the combine? The fact he went undrafted probably justifies the call. He saw the positive in the situation:

“I’m used to being at a disadvantage… I’m a strong person, and I use that to my advantage. God don’t give his biggest battles to the weakest person.”

His coach, Tom Herman, was a little more irked about it:

“Why Poona Ford wasn’t invited to the combine, I’ll never know”

Mike Mayock agreed:

“Here’s what I think about Poona Ford… A, he should have been invited to the combine. The Big 12 defensive lineman of the year, productive, tough. I think what’s happening is that so many juniors are coming out this year, they’re holding spots for juniors and kicking some of the seniors out. But there’s no doubt he should have been invited to the combine.

“You get drafted at one area if you’re a run-only defender, and you get drafted earlier if you can affect the pass game… I think that’s what people have to figure out about him.”

Herman also raved about Ford during an interview with Brock & Salk on 710 ESPN.

“He’s a captain. He’s going to be a 10-year starter in that league. I’ve been doing this a long time… there’s three defensive tackles in my 20-years of coaching that I’ve seen that I would say have elite, elite, elite work ethic, determination, drive — play after play after play. That would be Casey Hampton way back when I was a graduate assistant in 1999… the second one would be Ed Oliver who had the opportunity to coach for a year at the University of Houston… and then Poona Ford. He’s on that list. He’s explosive, he’s powerful, he’s so strong. To me he’s the perfect nose guard.”

The Seahawks have done it several times in the Pete Carroll era. Taking a chance on an underrated player due to his size? So Seahawky.

Poona Ford has a chance to make it. We’ll see if he can be Seattle’s next great find.

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Breaking down the draft class: Will Dissly

One way or another, the Seahawks were going to draft a blocking tight end.

It was inevitable. A foregone conclusion. As likely as a big investment in the running back position.

We never even really looked at the ‘pass-catching’ tight ends in this class. And that’s pretty much the whole class. The number of blockers, once again, was decidedly low. A point emphasised by Pete Carroll immediately after the draft:

“It has been harder to find, John (Schneider) has been checking it for years. We’ve really had a difficult time finding a guy that can do both, who can catch the ball and run some routes for you but can be a strong blocker.”

The Seahawks made a big investment in Zach Miller seven years ago. With money to spend and having already signed Sidney Rice and Robert Gallery, they signed Miller to a five-year, $34m contract with $17m guaranteed.

It was a huge investment at the time.

He was familiar with Tom Cable (himself having just joined the Seahawks) and fans saw a former second round pick with 2712 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns already to his name.

He was going to be a big time playmaker, right?

It depends how you define the term ‘playmaker’. Miller ended up being the perfect compliment to the Marshawn Lynch running game. He was a terrific blocker — legitimately as good as a sixth offensive lineman. When they needed an important catch to move the chains, he was often there.

In four seasons with the Seahawks he never had more than 396 receiving yards in a single year. His production statistically was unimpressive. Yet his production in terms of impact on the field was hugely significant.

When he retired after the 2014 season, the Seahawks went in a very different direction. Possibly (probably) in a retaliation to what happened in the Super Bowl, they went after a different type of tight end. A red zone monster, more of a pass catcher and certainly not a blocker.

They traded for Jimmy Graham.

They then proceeded to spend two years seemingly trying to convert him into a capable blocker. Carroll would reference Graham’s potential to become a complete tight end. It never happened. In year three he was used almost exclusively as a big red zone target. It was too late. The Seahawks — and Graham — needed a fresh start.

I don’t buy into this idea that Seattle’s culture changed the moment they traded for Graham. You could argue it was ill-advised to try and turn him into something he wasn’t (a good blocker). But there was more going on than just Graham’s addition from 2015 onwards. We were witnessing the end of the Marshawn Lynch era in Seattle, the offensive line became a major weakness and the injuries took a toll on many offensive players.

Even so, moving on from Graham and Luke Willson this year while adding Ed Dickson and Will Dissly is a statement of intent to get back to the 2011 plan.

The Seahawks don’t need an 800-900 yard tight end who can haul in 10 touchdowns. That’d be a bonus. First and foremost they need someone who can do the job Miller did. Block well, provide a reliable target.

That’s Dissly down to a tee.

Over the course of the draft coverage I mocked Dissly, Dalton Schultz and Durham Smythe to the Seahawks — all for their blocking ability. These were the three players competing in something similar to a pro-style offense (or at least an offense that featured the run). I paired Dissly with Seattle in my final seven-rounder.

Lance Zielein projected him as a sixth round pick.

Even so, I’m glad the Seahawks took him where they did. There’s nothing wrong with getting ‘your guy’. Many teams wouldn’t have been interested in a blocking tight end with a limited physical profile. But the Seahawks aren’t drafting for the rest of the league. At this time in the Pete Carroll era, with fixing the run being the priority, it was absolutely the right time to go and get a tight end like Dissly.

Not Mike Gesicki. Not Mark Andrews.

They needed someone they could put out there, deliver a decent block to help the pass or run and catch a few balls. No fuss, no pressure to get him the football. A modest albeit important job.

More than anything next season it’ll be refreshing not to read the weekly analysis of how many receptions a certain player had. Throughout Graham’s time in Seattle there was almost a pressure to get him the football. On the days when he didn’t get more than a couple of targets, it became a ‘thing’. Questions would be asked, people would wonder why they weren’t making him a feature.

There’s not going to be any of that anymore. Nobody is going to question how many targets Ed Dickson and Will Dissly received in a game. The Seahawks can go back to what they were in the 2011-2014 years. A bunch of under-appreciated, ‘pedestrian’ pass catchers. Russell Wilson can spread the ball around and Seattle can feature the running game again.

Back to Seahawks football.

Getting a running back and a tight end was vital from this class. Carroll and Schneider, quite clearly, got the two guys they really wanted. They didn’t leave anything to chance. They had their pick of the running back class apart from Saquon Barkley and they took Dissly in a range where they were assured to get him — and then declared him the best blocking tight end in the draft.

Running back they want? Check

Blocking tight end? Check

Pass rusher? Check

The three most important needs in this draft, all checked off.

And while many will complain about the lack of yet another first round pick on the O-line (just to put last years early OL pick on the bench) or no cornerback drafted early (despite their history of success on day three and the re-signing of Byron Maxwell) — these were the real moves the Seahawks had to make.

Again, I’m not here to just cheerlead for the Seahawks. I think the fact we’ve talked about these things for months proves that isn’t the case. We focused on running backs and tight ends quite a lot. They had to come out of this class having added to those two positions with guys that fit their way of doing things. And they pulled it off, despite the lack of picks.

How do you criticise that?

They did what they set out to do. You can’t accuse them of a lack of focus or clarity here. They had one pick at #18 and turned it into two players that had been ranked in the top-50. They got their tight end. They added some really intriguing players in rounds 5-7.

This was a good draft for the Seahawks. Simple as that. It might not be enough to propel them into a far superior record in 2018. They might go 9-7 again. But it might be a more palatable 9-7 with belief restored that this team can compete again in the future.

And hey — if they can run the ball this year and with Russell Wilson at quarterback, we shouldn’t set any limitations for what they can achieve.

So what about Dissly?

An anonymous NFC West Scout had this to say about him:

“He’s a Peterson guy. All-in with his commitment to the team and what he has to do. He won’t blow you away with talent or athleticism, but he does his job.”

That’s exactly what the Seahawks were looking for. A committed team player, ready to come in and block and do his job.

Bob McGinn listed Dissly as an ‘unsung hero’ in his piece on the receivers and tight ends, noting:

A consensus choice as the best blocking tight end in the draft. “Somebody will take him late because he’s a blocking fool,” said one scout. “There’s no ‘Y’s’ (conventional tight ends) anymore. Everybody plays the spread.” Shifted from DE to TE late in the 2015 season. Adequate size (6-3 ½, 261), below-average speed (4.88) and 35 on the Wonderlic.

What do you see on tape? Nothing overly spectacular — just a large number of really solid, competent blocks. He does his job, down after down.

He plays with the kind of edge you’d expect from a converted D-liner. He’ll often finish his blocks:

John Schneider complimented Dissly’s catching ability but there aren’t too many examples to highlight. He only had 21 receptions as a Senior for 289 yards and a couple of scores. I saw him live against Oregon and he only had one reception for six yards.

Here’s the thing though — you don’t see many errors. Either as a blocker or catcher. He can certainly snatch a difficult pass out of the air:

In this game against Montana, Dissly also had a really good reception on a scramble drill. He uncovered from the right sideline and gave Jake Browning an option, collected the pass at the 15-yard line and then fought his way to the goal line, carrying defenders along the way.

This was the play that really caught my attention in that game. His ability to understand the moment, provide a target and then finish the run was very Zach Miller-esque. And it’s not like Washington has a scrambling quarterback and this was just second nature for Dissly. It showed he had a natural feel to get open, provide a target and give Jake Browning an option.

His ability to finish runs consistently shows up. Against Utah, Dissly caught a fairly simple pass to what would be the right hash in the NFL. He’s hit at the 12-yard line as he completes the pass, breaks the tackle and then drags another defender to the two-yard line.

Against Oregon State he caught a pass on an outside slant to the right sideline. He cut back inside, dodged two defenders and made a difficult first down. In the same game he caught a checkdown from Browning and it took six (SIX) defenders to halt his progress. He was pushing the pile on his own.

This was also a game where he showed a genuine ability to quickly race down the seam and provide an option. He had a really sharp break off the snap, got downfield with enough shiftiness and made a 25-yard completion.

In a game against Portland State he again took another checkdown to the right sideline, plowed through one tackle and then side-stepped another to score a touchdown.

We also know the Seahawks like the occasional trick play…

There’s no real art in judging what Dissly does well. He’s tough, physical, reliable as a catcher and blocker and has surprising power and an ability to get open.

While he didn’t run an outstanding forty time (4.87) he did manage a 4.40 short shuttle. That’s no mean feat at 6-4 and 262lbs. That agility shows up fairly often.

The other thing he has in his locker is experience playing defense. In the same way Richard Sherman had an advantage due to his time playing receiver, Dissly can think like a pass rusher. He knows what to expect, what a defender is looking to do.

We’re not going to be sat here in four years time toasting Dissly for passing Jimmy Graham as the most productive tight end in franchise history. That’s not why they drafted him. They will need to find a way to replace some of Graham’s scoring production. That doesn’t have to come from the tight ends though. Hopefully the running backs will score more than one touchdown this year.

Dissly’s here to help the Seahawks get back to their brand of football. Dissly, Rashaad Penny, D.J. Fluker, Mike Solari, Ed Dickson. All moves designed to get the balance back on this offense.

I wanted to finish today with a few words about Cliff Avril. He never quite made the headlines like Richard Sherman or Michael Bennett. He wasn’t outspoken, he just got on with the job. Yet when we look back at what pushed the Seahawks over the top in 2013 — Avril was every bit as important as Bennett.

I remember the day well when Avril signed. There was something special about that off-season. The Percy Harvin trade, Bennett and Avril signing. The Seahawks were unstoppable — on the field and in free agency.

Before he was drafted in 2008 he ran a sensational 1.50 10-yard split. That’s as good as it gets for a pass rusher. Avril will be the benchmark from which we compare every future possible DE addition to this team.

And it’s often forgotten that his rush off the left edge played at least some part in ‘the tip’.

Through his effort on the field, his charity work and the way he always came across well in interviews, Avril deserves everyone’s respect now that his career in Seattle has ended prematurely.

He was a fantastic Seahawk — and we’ll be lucky to see another pass rusher capable of combining his intensity and effort on the field with humility and charm off it.

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Breaking down the draft class: Rasheem Green

Rasheem Green wasn’t supposed to be a third round pick

He chose to declare for the draft, somewhat surprisingly, and when he made that decision the initial reaction was positive. Lance Zierlein noted he could be a first or second round pick in his NFL.com bio. He gave him a 5.88 grade, putting him a notch below Billy Price and Josh Allen. He graded above Christian Kirk, Kerryon Johnson, Kolton Miller, Austin Corbett, Nick Chubb, Frank Ragnow and Rashaad Penny.

Clearly Green had been given advice that he would be an early pick. In a year with a real lack of pass rush options, it wasn’t an unrealistic proposition.

Initially I didn’t think there was much chance he would last into round three. On April 3rd I mocked him as high as #24 to Carolina. There wasn’t a lot of buzz around his stock leading into the draft and in my final mock I had him again to the Panthers but at #55.

You can tell when a player might be set to last longer than expected. They have no buzz going into the draft. Projections drop. Zierlein ended up giving him a final second or third round projection. Bob McGinn’s sources offered the same grade with this accompanying blurb:

Third-year junior played DE in a 3-4 defense and moved inside on passing downs. “He’s naturally an outside guy,” said one scout. “One of the reasons he’s leaving is there was word they planned on him continuing to work inside. He sees himself as a defensive end. He’s super talented and super young (will turn 21 in May). He needs to get stronger. Probably would have benefited staying in an extra year. His best football is ahead of him.” Finished with 117 tackles (20 for loss) and 16 ½ sacks. Two teams have major medical concerns about his knee. “Kind of a potential guy,” said a third scout. “He’s got some inside pass rush. He’s not quite man enough inside and doesn’t have quite the juice outside. You’re hoping to project him to 3-technique. He doesn’t like going inside because I don’t think he’s tough enough.” From Los Angeles.

His stock started high but never gained the kind of momentum where you felt he was going to go early. Seattle took advantage of that.

This was a bad class to find an EDGE

Bradley Chubb was always destined for the top-five but after that? It was Marcus Davenport and not much else. With limited options and always a need for pass rushers, it felt like Green, Sam Hubbard and others would go early. Perhaps earlier than they deserved to go.

That wasn’t the case.

Both Green and Hubbard dropped. Pete Carroll and John Schneider noted it was a knee issue with Green that led to his fall. Hubbard had a disappointing final year at Ohio State.

It was left to the likes of Harold Landry (#41) and Kemoko Turay (#52) to pick up the slack. If this was a New Orleans blog we’d probably be reflecting on the complete dearth of options as a reason why the Saints made such an aggressive move to get Davenport. If you wanted a pass rusher this year, good luck.

And Seattle needed a pass rusher. They really needed one. So why not take a chance with Green? They might’ve been especially careful with their draft board this year but this felt like the time to roll the dice a little. As long as the knee issue isn’t too serious, take the shot.

They traded down from #76 so did they want Hubbard and got cute?

I’ve seen this suggested on Twitter. Presumably this suggestion is based on either cynicism or Pete Carroll’s obscure ‘draft clues’. He posted a GIF of a monkey running off with a hubcap. It’s a bit vague to connect ‘HUBcap’ and ‘Hubbard’.

Instead, I think this was the situation. They picked at #76. They liked both Hubbard and Green. They knew at least one would be available by dropping down to #79. So they made the deal.

Why would both Green and Hubbard appeal?

Agility testing.

Quinton Jefferson (4.37), Jordan Hill (4.51), Jaye Howard (4.47) and Malik McDowell (4.53) all tested superbly in the short shuttle. Bruce Irvin (4.03) and Frank Clark (4.05) both ran incredible short shuttles. Cassius Marsh’s 4.25 and Obum Gwacham’s 4.28 were also really good.

Here are the top-five D-line testers in the short shuttle at this years combine:

Sam Hubbard — 4.32
James Looney — 4.37
Rasheem Green — 4.39
Bradley Chubb — 4.41
Marcus Davenport — 4.41

If the Seahawks do view the short shuttle as a vital test, here’s why they were likely interested in Hubbard and Green. They not only recorded the first and third fastest times, they also beat Chubb and Davenport.

Now here’s the top five three cone times:

Sam Hubbard — 6.84
Taven Bryan — 7.12
Marcus Davenport — 7.20
Rasheem Green — 7.24
B.J. Hill — 7.28

Hubbard’s time is the sixth fastest in the last 10 years of the combine.

So here were two players who were available in an ideal range for the Seahawks, testing in the drill they seem to value.

Evidence of a well judged draft plan.

So this was the right way to go about this class?

We made this point in the Rashaad Penny review but essentially these were the options:

1. Harold Landry at #27 then Nyheim Hines, Mark Walton, Kalen Ballage or Chase Edmunds at running back

2. Rashaad Penny (the RB you want before the rush starts) and Rasheem Green

The Seahawks haven’t received positive grades for their draft class. Considering they had one pick at #18 and then nothing until #120 though, how can you criticize what they were able to do here? If fixing the run and adding a pass rusher was the priority, mission accomplished.

So what about Rasheem Green the player?

He’s not the finished article and that shows up on tape. Yet the upside is so high for a third round pick. That’s not me just being positive about everything the Seahawks do. That’s not how we operate here. I’ll always be honest. And my honest view is — this was a value pick.

Here’s what an anonymous AFC regional scout said about Green courtesy of NFL.com:

“I wanted him to go back to school because he probably would have been a top-10 pick next year. He’s not strong enough to handle NFL guys yet so this year may be a redshirt year for him. He’s got some serious juice though. He’s going to be a dude when it all comes together.”

This sums it up perfectly.

1. He has incredible, untapped potential — enough that he could’ve been a high first rounder next year

2. He needs time to get stronger and wiser

3. He could be very, very good

Seattle needs the aforementioned ‘dude‘. Someone to fill the massive void left by Michael Bennett.

Not that anyone should expect the second coming of Bennett. From arriving in Seattle as an UDFA and then moving to Tampa Bay — nothing about Bennett’s career was expected or orthodox. There were no great testing numbers. No rhyme or reason to what he does. He’s probably as rare as Marshawn Lynch. The Seahawks couldn’t have asked for a better inside/out rusher to compliment their star-studded secondary during the glory years.

Green has a lot to do to get to that level. An awful lot. But it’s indicative of his potential that he might be able to get there one day.

One of the things Bennett had was an arsenal of moves. He could win with power or rush the edge, he knew how to set up a blocker over several snaps and he often out-thought as well as out-fought his opponent. Green, at the moment, is a little bit predictable. He needs a counter. You see the flash off the edge and he will win with speed and length. There are also times where he gets stalled and you’d love to see a club/swipe or a spin — just something to mix things up.

One of the reasons I liked Dalton Schultz a lot as a blocker was the way he battled with Green. At the next level, that needs to be a mismatch.

He could also be a bit edgier and rough around the edges. Bennett had a mean streak and an attitude that sometimes pushed the line of acceptability. Green is almost a bit too polite at the moment. Perhaps he can be the aggressor a bit more going forward? But he’s 20-years-old. If we’re saying the same things in five years, it’s a problem. Not now though.

That’s why the anonymous AFC regional scout said what he said above. When he gets stronger, wiser and a little bit more experienced — watch out. Because what he already does well is pretty exciting.

The Seahawks need a player who can rush from the inside on key downs. There is ample evidence that Green can do this while also playing with power and aggression when needed too.

As noted immediately after the pick, he was sometimes asked to play nose tackle. Malik McDowell had the same task at Michigan State. It was an ill fit but he still excelled. His one-arm bull rush was incredible. His combination of length and power was freakish. It’s why Seattle took the chance on McDowell.

Green shows some evidence of that same power/length combo. He’s a pure inside/out or EDGE pass rusher and yet he can anchor inside:

Just look at the way be bullies his way into the backfield from an interior position:

And I highlighted this one the other day. Nobody does this to Billy Price. I watched virtually all of Price’s 2017 games and this is a collector’s item:

Here he is winning with relative ease against UCLA using a club/rip:

This is why you get excited about this pick. If he’s succeeding from the interior like this already, that’s the exciting part.

He can rush the EDGE. You can find examples of that. Lots of players do this in college:

Yet more than anything the Seahawks need an inside/out threat. Those types are rare and difficult to find.

His effort and motor are also a major positive. He doesn’t stop, competes to the ball and makes plays:

It took Frank Clark a year to reach something close to his best in the NFL. It might take Green a year to get there too. But he’ll contribute quickly to Seattle’s rotation and his potential down the line is clear and obvious. As long as the health of his knee isn’t a big problem, he could be a key component of the new look Seahawks.

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Breaking down the draft class: Rashaad Penny

Before getting into Rashaad Penny the player, a few thoughts on the pick:

1. The Seahawks took the guy they wanted not the consolation prize

Whatever your thoughts are on Seattle drafting a running back early, two points are indisputable. The Seahawks set out to fix the run as a priority. They appeared set on taking a running back with their first pick. And rather than keep trading back and ending up with their second, third or fourth choice, they took the guy they really wanted.

It’s refreshing to know they got their guy. We’ll never wonder if they missed out on target #1. With a pick of the whole running back class aside from Saquon Barkley, they genuinely wanted Penny. Not Nick Chubb. Not Sony Michel. Not Kerryon Johnson or Ronald Jones II or Derrius Guice. They landed the guy they sought the most. They didn’t get cute. Pete Carroll stated, emphatically:

“I don’t mind telling ya, this pick fires me up. I am jacked about this pick.”

It’s not uncommon for Pete to be ‘pumped’ or ‘jacked’. It’s fair to say though, this was an especially ‘jacked’ Carroll. They really wanted Rashaad Penny.

2. Rashaad Penny + Rasheem Green = better than the alternative

The Seahawks could’ve taken Harold Landry (overrated) or Taven Bryan at #27 and waited until round three to take a running back. That would’ve been fine if you were content with Nyheim Hines, Mark Walton, Kalen Ballage or Chase Edmunds being trusted to help ‘fix the run’. Those were the four running backs taken after pick #76.

So what would you rather have? Rashaad Penny, the running back they really wanted, and Rasheem Green — a player who, according to one unnamed AFC regional scout, “probably would have been a top-10 pick next year“? Or Harold Landry and Kalen Ballage?

I’ll go with option A.

3. The good running backs were always going to go early

How often did we talk about at least six running backs being off the board by pick 50?

#2 Saquon Barkley
#27 Rashaad Penny
#31 Sony Michel
#35 Nick Chubb
#38 Ronald Jones II
#43 Kerryon Johnson

Six were gone by #43. The predictable rush on running backs occurred right in the range everyone expected. Royce Freeman lasted until #71 (I personally thought he’d go in the top-65) and Derrius Guice dropped to #59 due to well publicized character concerns.

If you wanted one of the top runners you couldn’t hang about. The likes of John Kelly (sixth round) and Bo Scarborough (seventh round) clearly weren’t viewed positively by teams in the league. This was most definitely a case of ‘go early or miss out’.

The Seahawks acted accordingly.

4. Stick to your guns

I like to try and learn from every draft. There’s always a lesson. I’ve already mentioned my regret at being swayed to pick a cornerback (Isaiah Oliver) to be Seattle’s first pick after spending a whole draft season talking about the running game. Another lesson also became evident after a few days. One I should’ve already learnt from.

In 2012 the first player we talked about immediately after the 2011 draft was Bruce Irvin. Here’s the piece and here’s an exert:

He’s the best kept secret in college football. Last season he recorded 14 sacks and yet received virtually no hype. West Virginia pulled off a masterstroke appointing Dana Holgorsen as their offensive coordinator and future head coach. He was the mastermind behind Oklahoma State’s free-scoring offense which consistently churned out talent at running back and wide receiver. The Mountaineers will have a productive offense next season and with Irvin leading the way on defense they’re an outside pick to go unbeaten next year. That’ll help to put this guy firmly on the map.

Make no mistake this is the most devastating, dominating and exciting player you’ll watch during the 2011 college season.

Then when the college season started and West Virginia strangely used Irvin in a three man front, we only occasionally talked about him. And we projected him as a third round option by the 2012 draft like most people.

The ideal LEO, as Pete Carroll later called Irvin, had been identified almost a full year before the Seahawks drafted him. And rather than keep that thought firmly in our minds, we looked at other players at the business end of the draft coverage.

Six years on, history repeated.

The first running back we talked about during the 2017 season was Rashaad Penny. Here’s the piece and here are some of the notes:

San Diego State running back Rashaad Penny is a player to start paying attention to. Listed at 5-11 and 220lbs, he’s right in the ball park for Seattle’s size preference at the position…. A true all-rounder with great speed, thickness and athleticism — he’s a Senior running back to watch for the rest of 2017.

That was in September and in a follow up piece in November, there was this:

It’ll be interesting to see how Nick Chubb tests following his knee injury. We’ve often referenced his performance at one of the Nike SPARQ combines. If he gets anywhere near that again and the medical checks are OK, he could go very early.

There are others to mention — Bryce Love, Derrius Guice, Damien Harris, Ronald Jones and Royce Freeman to name a few. The one I’d keep an eye on the most at the moment is San Diego State’s Rashaad Penny.

He’s having a fantastic year with 1368 and 12 rushing touchdowns (plus 136/2 as a pass catcher). He has six career kick return touchdowns and he combines toughness, elusiveness and the ability to break off big plays. He’s in Seattle’s size bracket (5-11, 220lbs). He also talks well in interviews and is elevating his team to a strong season.

I’m not sure where Penny will go in terms of round. We’ll need to see how he tests. Yet if the Seahawks did move down into rounds 2-3 to accumulate more picks, I wouldn’t bet against Penny landing on this team.

We focused on Penny during the college season and then during the draft season spent more time on Ronald Jones II, Nick Chubb and others. It’s something to remember and learn from going forward.

So, what does the tape say about Rashaad Penny?

The thing that really stands out is his burst and suddenness. His straight-line acceleration is impressive. When he finds a crease and gets to the second level, he’ll be a threat to break off big runs. He’s a different type of back than they’ve had in the past. Marshawn Lynch was a generational power back. Thomas Rawls was an angry, aggressive runner constantly seeking contact. Christine Michael was all lower body explosive power. Penny isn’t the most explosive player and he doesn’t have the Rawls running style. He’s a lot quicker though.

It might indicate a desire to have more explosive running plays. Even a year ago they seemed to be looking for a more physical approach. Eddie Lacy was supposed to provide size and power (but emphatically didn’t). Chris Carson was more explosive than fast (4.58 forty vs 37 inch vertical). Before he got injured Carson showed an ability to fall forward. He was tough to stop and physical rather than quick.

Penny has 4.47 speed. He’s a home run threat. And maybe they wanted someone who will do the fundamentals well but also provide that X-factor ability to score at any time?

He’s not just about ‘speed’ though. According to PFF he had 1295 yards after contact in college — more than any other running back in the 2018 draft. Not bad for a player who was only a one-year starter. He also led the class in missed tackles forced.

Put on the tape and plays like this are quite frequent:

Want to see a bit of Baby Beast Mode?

Or a bit of Baby Beast Mode Blocking?

Can he be an asset in the passing game? This play suggests he can:

So there’s plenty of the toughness you want to see. He also gets on with the job. Because while all the highlight runs are nice, perhaps the most exciting part of his game are plays like this:

It’s third and three against Stanford and they’ve got eight defenders lined up close to the LOS. They know it’s a run. They’re going for it anyway. ‘Hand it to #20’. He finds his gap, gets skinny through the hole and plows forward for a 14-yard gain.

How many 3rd and 3 conversions did the Seahawks have from their running game last season? Zero?

It’s not a big, gaping hole he exploits here. At one point it looks like #57 is going to make a play but Penny is just too quick. And then you see the physicality to finish the run and get the most out of the play.

This is what fires me up most about this pick. Not a play like this:

Or this:

Or the huge game he had against Arizona State:

Whenever you take a running back in the first round you expect some electricity. Penny will provide that in spades. He’ll be the proverbial threat to score any time he touches the ball.

But what I really like about his suddenness, finishing ability and toughness is the way he’ll effectively help Seattle sustain drives. Hopefully, he’ll provide the kind of balance that has been non-existent for two years.

Mike Mayock described him as a ‘weaver’. You can see why. He’s not an ankle breaker and certainly doesn’t possess anything like Saquon Barkley’s jump-cut (but who does?). He uses subtle motion to deceive defenders:

This is likely why one of Bob McGinn’s sources said of Penny:

“I don’t think he has good feel or a lot of niftiness.”

He’s still, essentially, a 220lbs runner. ‘Niftiness’ would be a rare trait. Another of McGinn’s sources added:

“Makes guys miss. Got great contact balance.”

And that sums it up. He isn’t going to be DeSean Jackson in a 1v1. He still makes guys miss in his own way. And that contact balance shows up time and time again with the way he finishes runs, gains the extra yards after contact and forces the broken tackles.

Overall this is what the Seahawks are getting:

1. A runner who can be in on any down or distance

2. A sudden, quick runner with burst and acceleration

3. A player who can be a legit returner on special teams

4. Someone who drives through contact and finishes

5. A patient runner who will work through traffic to convert short-yardage situations to extend drives

6. A threat to score any time he gets the ball in his hands

7. A player with ideal size for the position, above average speed for his frame and explosive traits

8. A player with no durability concerns

9. A possibly solution to their greatest single need — fixing the run

What does he need to work on? The usual stuff. Most running backs need to work on pass protection when they enter the league. Penny isn’t unique there. There aren’t many Ezekiel Elliott’s in college. Penny, in fairness, wasn’t even asked to do much pass-pro in college.

There are also occasions where he misses a cutback lane in the way Ronald Jones II doesn’t. That’s not to say he isn’t capable of dynamic cuts to make big gains. He is. But occasionally he’s more north-south and doesn’t feel the cut to make more of the run. It’s a minor quibble and an easy teaching point.

His vertical jump (32.5 inches) was a little lower than they’ve preferred in the past and was well below the attempts of Saquon Barkley (41 inches) Kerryon Johnson (40 inches), Nick Chubb (38.5 inches) and Ronald Jones II (36.5 inches). His broad jump (10-0) was only the joint 12th best among running backs at the combine. Chubb (10-8) and Johnson (10-6) both faired better.

Ideally this is an area where we’ll see some improvement once he enters a pro-training program.

Why did Seattle draft him ahead of some of the other runners available? Let’s run through the list:

Nick Chubb — highly explosive, ideal size, great attitude but one-paced, not a passing game threat, injury history with the knee

Kerryon Johnson — very powerful and physical runner and set the tone for Auburn in 2017 but high-cut frame and upright running style encourage injuries and he’s been banged up

Ronald Jones II — extremely quick and dynamic with star-potential but smaller than ideal size, there were some concerns about his pre-draft process (injuries, poor meetings) and might need to be part of a duo

Sony Michel — very versatile, mature and productive but legit concerns about bone-on-bone knee issue and lack of explosive traits

Derrius Guice — Tough, physical runner but major concerns about his maturity, focus, character and had a bizarre pre-draft period (and was banged up in 2017)

Royce Freeman — Very fluid, smooth and productive runner but unfortunately he’s a big back who runs like a smaller back

Then you look at Penny. He has ideal size, plus speed, enough explosive attributes, major production, high character, physicality, can catch the ball and he has no injury concerns.

Seattle needed a running back. They need to fix their running game. Rashaad Penny gives them an opportunity to create a ‘run-aissance’ as Kenny Sloth has been calling it in the comments section (nice work Kenny).

Rashaad Penny & Shaquem Griffin jerseys are now available via the NFL Shop. To purchase either, check the blog sidebar.

I promised podcasts and here are two. One with Kenny at Field Gulls and another with the Seahawkers. Both are running through the draft classes in full. Please listen to both if possible:

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Notes on Seattle’s VMAC & workout prospects

So far, 24 of Seattle’s 30 official ‘visits’ have been made public (either by the players themselves or via various reports).

Seven off-site workouts have also been revealed.

Here are notes on most of the players the Seahawks have met with…

‘Official 30’ visitors

Justin Reid (S, Stanford)
Ran a 4.40 forty at 6-0 and 207lbs. Despite that speed, he isn’t a natural rangy free safety. He does his best work up at the line like his brother. It doesn’t mean he can’t develop into a viable single-high option but there’s not a lot of that on tape. High character, strong personality. If the Seahawks end up trading Earl Thomas they might consider Reid or Wake Forest’s Jesse Bates III with an early pick.

Bob McGinn’s sources: “Some people like the guy but I think they like him because of his brother… I just didn’t see it. I don’t know why the guy came out. He’s got some ball skills but he misses a lot of tackles.”

Likely range: Could easily go in the 20’s based on bloodlines and speed. Worst-case scenario is probably early round two.

Ronnie Harrison (S, Alabama)
Only ran a 4.58 at his Pro-day at 6-2 and 207lbs. Does possess a +80 inch wingspan though and had decent explosive testing numbers at the combine (34 vertical, 10-0 broad). His hit on Kerryon Johnson in the Iron Bowl potentially changed the course of the SEC in 2017. Very much a strong safety. With a potential Earl Thomas trade in the pipeline, it’s no surprise the Seahawks are looking at the available options.

Bob McGinn’s sources: “Tough guy… Plays the game the right way. Got to be coming forward. More of a box guy.”

Likely range: It won’t be a shock if he sneaks into the late first round but a safe projection is round two.

Kemoko Turay (DE, Rutgers)
Classic EDGE type and when he’s healthy and on it, Turay looks the part. He had a terrific Senior Bowl and ended the practise week as a big winner. Didn’t complete all the drills at the combine due to a hamstring injury. Didn’t do anything other than the bench at pro-day. Ran a 1.62 10-yard split at 253lbs. It’s not the ideal 1.5 but he was hampered by that hamstring issue. Comparisons to Yannick Ngakoue aren’t without merit.

Lance Zierlein: “Explosive edge defender with the coveted traits of an NFL pass rusher.”

Likely range: He’s a day two pick, possibly round three but could land somewhere in round two due to the weak pass rush options this year.

Leighton Vander Esch (LB, Boise State)
A stud. Pure and simple. As we highlighted a month ago, Vander Esch compares physically to all of the top linebackers in the league. He’s one of the top 15-20 players in the draft. Explosive, instinctive, intense and quick. He doesn’t get the same hype as Roquan Smith or Tremaine Edmunds but he might have a better career. LVE could play SAM in year one and eventually replace K.J. Wright at the WILL.

Bob McGinn’s sources: “Very instinctive… Alert, active, aggressive. Square tackler. Got good range. These guys don’t get blocked because they have such a great first step.”

Likely range: Probably won’t make it to #18

Austin Corbett (T, Nevada)
He’s similar to Isaiah Wynn. They both played left tackle in college, they’re both expected to kick inside to guard. Yet neither got beat very often at tackle. Wynn and Corbett played better than Kolton Miller in 2017. Miller will be drafted first purely because he projects to tackle. We wrote about Corbett in depth here. Like Wynn, he’s a stone-cold stud. One of my five favourite players in the class.

Bob McGinn’s sources: “Day one starter… He’s similar to the (Joel) Bitonio guy that came out of there (2014, second round, Browns). He doesn’t look like he should be a left tackle but just very, very, very productive. Competitive, smart (Wonderlic of 27), good athlete, good strength for his size. Just a really good player. First round.”

Likely range: He’s so good it won’t be a shock if he goes late first round. If he’s there in round two — it’s a steal.

Josh Sweat (DE, Florida State)
If draft grades were given out for physical measurements and testing, Sweat would be a top-five lock. He has everything — a 1.55 10-yard split, 34.5 inch arms, a 4.53 forty, a near 40 inch vertical and a 4.28 short shuttle. Quickness, length, explosive traits. Injury history (knee) and a tendency to be late off the snap are the negatives but there’s a lot to work with here. Mature, high-character player. Would be a LEO/EDGE in Seattle.

Bob McGinn’s sources: “He reminds me of the guy from there who went to the Ravens. Peter Boulware. Built like him. He’s got that kind of take-off.”

Likely range: It’ll depend on how willing teams are to take a chance on his health and how desperate they are to get a pass rusher given the limited options. Top-45 isn’t out of the question.

Maurice Hurst (DT, Michigan)
Some will view him as arguably the best defensive tackle in the draft (he’s certainly the best interior pass rusher). Others won’t like the scheme fit. Hurst is dynamite as a one-gap penetrative force. Physically though nothing stands out. His frame (6-1, 292lbs) and length (32 inch arms) could be a problem defending the run and might limit him to a role as a specialist rusher. His pro-day marks were nothing special — 4.95 forty, 1.69 10-yard split, 4.64 short shuttle. High character. Could be a Clinton McDonald type.

Bob McGinn’s sources: “I could never take the guy in the first round… He’ll get hammered if he has to play two gaps. He’s a quick penetrator. He‘s just got to fit your system.”

Likely range: A team like Atlanta could show serious interest at #26. It’s also possible he lasts into round two.

Andrew Brown (DT, Virginia)
Former 5-star big-time recruit. Neither Brown or Quin Blanding lived up to the billing at Virginia. Was that down to them or circumstance? It wasn’t for a lack of effort though. Brown gives everything on the field. He had a terrific Senior Bowl and really looked the part. Super quick short shuttle (4.48) for a 6-3, 296lbs lineman. An underrated player with a lot of potential. A possible Michael Bennett replacement.

NFL.com sources: “Great football character and he goes hard all the time. I think he has a chance to be a good pro because he’ll play inside full time and he’s got some quickness to beat guards.”

Likely range: I think he’ll go a lot earlier than expected. Possibly rounds 2-3.

Breeland Speaks (DE, Ole Miss)
Watching a Speaks highlight video feels like you’re watching a first rounder. His mobility and quickness working the edge at 6-3 and 287lbs is impressive. He rushes like a pure EDGE at times. Sadly the full game tape shows inconsistent play to go with the occasional flash. Even so, he ran a 1.65 10-yard split at his size and that can’t be ignored. Another possible Michael Bennett replacement.

Lance Zierlein: “He can be chippy and emotional on the field and needs to mature, but he has the talent and ability to continue getting better.”

Likely range: Middle rounds — but the type that could end up turning into a valued starter.

Holton Hill (CB, Texas)
Hill looks like a Seahawks corner. He’s nearly 6-2 and 195lbs with that wiry, long frame they like (32 inch arms). His short shuttle (4.15) was very good — an important test at this position. There seems to be some concern about his maturity but it’s difficult to find specific examples of this. Didn’t have a great combine in terms of the drills but it was a lousy CB session overall. I like him and he played well against Oklahoma State’s James Washington. The Seahawks often take a day three corner to develop and Hill could be the guy.

NFL.com sources: “He will fall further than he should because you can’t trust him. He needed a clean, productive season to rehab the perception around him and I felt like he should have gone back to school. He can play. He’s a Day 2 talent, but I doubt he goes there.”

Likely range: Fourth or fifth round. Ideal for Seattle.

Isaiah Oliver (CB, Colorado)
There’s a ton to like about Oliver. He’s good in press, he’s 6-2 and 201lbs and he has fantastic length (33.5 inch arms). He’ll cover a huge radius and will be able to compete with bigger receivers. At his pro-day he ran a 4.00 short shuttle which is outstanding. He looks and plays like a Seahawks corner. But how early are you willing to take a corner? Because he will not last long due to his testing numbers and size. He’s going to be an early pick.

Bob McGinn’s sources: “He’s really good in press… Off, he needs a lot of work. He’s got a lot of skills. Got good length. Not very strong. He might go in the first round.”

Likely range: A few weeks ago the third round felt likely. Now? First or second.

Dorance Armstrong (DE, Kansas)
AKA one of the guys who instigated Baker Mayfield’s infamous ‘gesture’ during the Oklahoma vs Kansas game. Shaking the cage didn’t have the impact they hoped for that day. This was a curious workout and perhaps hints at the lack of pass rush options in this draft. Armstrong ran a 4.87 forty at the combine despite weighing 257lbs. He then ran a 4.88 at his pro-day. So he’s not especially quick (1.69 10-yard split). He is a natural pass rusher though.

Lance Zierlein: “Armstrong has the tools and upside to become a complete player and good NFL starter.”

Likely range: It’s difficult to say. A drop in production last year and a mediocre combine could push him into day three.

Jacob Pugh (LB, Florida State)
Former four-star recruit who chose FSU over Alabama and Florida. Major explosive traits. He managed a near 40 inch vertical plus a 10-2 broad jump. He’s 6-3 and 246lbs with great length (34.5 inch arms). In terms of a physical prospect he’s one to watch. He’s had concussions and this will limit his stock. The Seahawks need young depth at linebacker and could see Pugh as a priority free agent.

Lance Zierlein: “Pugh needs a strong lead-up to the draft because his tape is uneven and his career production has been unimpressive. There are some traits to work with, but finding the right positional fit may be a challenge.”

Likely range: Undrafted

Poona Ford (DT, Texas)
Ford wasn’t invited to the combine and that seemed to tick him off. He’s only 5-11 but that’s not as much of a problem when you have 33.5 inch arms. He’ll win a lot of leverage battles at that height and unusually, for a shorter DT he’ll be able to extend and keep blockers off his frame. He might be a diamond in the rough as a pass rusher. Ford has a tremendous motor and plays with great effort.

Lance Zierlein: “While Ford flashed the ability to stack blocks and play with some strength at the point of attack, his lack of overall mass could make it tough for teams to see him in anything other than a penetrating, 4-3 scheme.”

Likely range: Day three is likely, somewhere between rounds 5-7

Other ‘official-30’ visitors: Foyesade Oluokun, Ito Smith, Keith Kirkwood, Khalid Hill, Devron Davis, Cole Madison, Kyle Allen, Simeon Thomas, Julian Taylor, Edward Shockely

Off-site workouts

Dallas Goedert (TE, South Dakota State)
It’s a weird year at the tight end position. It doesn’t look like a horrendous class by any stretch. It’s just not particularly exciting. And for a lot of the bigger names, Goedert included, it’s difficult to work out where they should go. He performed well at his pro-day — jumping a 35 inch vertical and a 10-1 broad. He also had an eye-catching 4.06 short shuttle and a 6.87 three cone at 6-5 and 256lbs. The Seahawks are very likely to be in the market for a young tight end.

Bob McGinn’s sources: “He’s getting a lot of hype but I don’t quite understand why… I guess it’s just because there is nobody else. He’s just kind of a small-school guy.”

Likely range: It’s so hard to say. Some think late first. There was a time when it looked like no tight ends would be drafted in the first two rounds, though.

Christian Kirk (WR, Texas A&M)
If the Seahawks want to draft the complete opposite of Malik McDowell they might turn to Christian Kirk. Zero character issues, ideal attitude, consistent college performer. If they just want a good football player with minimal bust potential, Kirk’s the man. He’s a downfield dynamo and a good fit for an Air Coryell-type offense. He uncovers well in the scramble drill and he’s a special teams force as a returner. Solid but unspectacular testing numbers.

Bob McGinn’s sources: “Big-time player… Excellent returner on punts and kickoffs. Explosive. Only thing that hurt him this year was the quarterback didn’t throw well. Only negative is his height. He’s well-built. Good hands. Extends and lays out. Really strong.”

Likely range: He’s trending upwards and could be a late first or early second round pick.

Kalen Ballage (RB, Arizona State)
Tony Pauline said in our conversation this week that Ballage looks like Tarzan and plays like Jane. Ballage promised a lot at Arizona State and was unable to deliver. That said, Tony also told us he’d heard Ballage’s pro-day performance was one of the best his sources had ever seen. He can run with toughness and he’s an excellent threat in the passing game. Is he ever going to be more than a compliment though? Ballage fits Seattle’s prototype at the position (size, explosive traits) perfectly.

Lance Zierlein: “Ballage can do a little of this and a little of that, but a team will need to have a clear-cut plan for how to use him.”

Likely range: Rounds 3-4

Other off-site workouts: Demone Harris, Abdullah Anderson, Manase Hungalu, Kyle Allen

If you missed our interview with Tony Pauline from Draft Analyst yesterday, make sure to check it out below…

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