Firstly, if you missed this earlier — be sure to listen to the Seahawkers Podcast below. I was invited on to talk about the combine:
The lasting memory of this combine will be — underwhelming, too many injuries and very few headline performances.
It highlighted the following:
1. The lack of legit first round prospects
2. The greater value in rounds 2-3 compared to round one
3. Confirmed this is a good draft for interior offensive linemen, running backs and linebackers (early) and not so much for cornerbacks, receivers or offensive tackles
The big positive was the athletic performance of the safety class which far exceeded expectations. We’ll start with a few thoughts on the defensive backs today…
Cornerbacks seriously underwhelm
This was one of the sloppiest group performances in recent memory. Numerous players had to stop and re-start certain drills. At one point Mike Mayock remarked:
“I think I’ve seen more guys get stopped in these drills than I’ve ever seen. Which is not a good thing.”
Iowa cornerback Joshua Jackson was stopped four times, including twice on one drill. It was a messy session with several players coasting or failing to execute.
Very few players impressed but Louisville’s Jaire Alexander was an exception. He excelled in the drills after running a 4.38. He doesn’t fit Seattle’s measurables at 5-10 and 196lbs with only 31 1/8 inch arms but he was the most impressive performer. Alabama’s Levi Wallace also had a strong outing but needs to add size at 6-0 and 179lbs.
Jackson coasted way too much and Mike Hughes was mostly unimpressive too. Both players have been touted as possible first round picks but there was very little evidence of that today. Denzel Ward ran well (4.32) but he had to at his size (5-10, 183lbs). Ward might be the only cornerback taken in round one and his stock might be limited due to his frame.
Safety’s put on a show
As disappointing as the cornerbacks were, the safety’s were the complete opposite. Many of the safety’s actually ran faster than the cornerbacks. The expectation was that this isn’t a particularly deep class at the position but on this evidence, there’ll be some intriguing options lasting into day three.
Stanford’s Justin Reid likely pushed his way into the first round conversation with his performance. Oklahoma State’s Trey Flowers is tall and lean (6-3, 202lbs) with great length (34 inch arms) and could be a possible cornerback conversion for the Seahawks. He ran in the 4.4’s.
Penn State’s Troy Akpe (6-1, 200lbs, +32 inch arms, 4.34, 41 inch vertical) and Terrell Edmunds (6-0, 217lbs, 33 inch arms, 4.47, 41.5 inch vertical, 11-2 broad) are worth a closer look in the coming days. Arizona’s Dane Cruikshank and Wisconsin’s Natrell Jamerson likewise warrant further study.
Derwin James did everything well in terms of testing and looked very smooth in transition and changing direction during the drills.
What did we learn about this draft class at the combine?
A normal draft class includes about 15-20 players graded in the first round. This year, that number could be lower. It’s possibly at about 10-15 but will vary from team to team.
It means the grade difference between a player drafted in the 20-30 range will be very similar to players taken in round two. This year, the best value is going to be found in rounds 2-3.
Rather than present a rare opportunity for the Seahawks to get a blue-chip player, at #18 they’re more likely to be just outside the zone where you’ll get true first round value.
What can we take away from this week for the Seahawks?
Pete Carroll reaffirmed his desire to improve the running game in a conversation with Mike Florio. Nothing about this combine suggests it won’t be Seattle’s #1 draft priority.
If (when?) the Seahawks trade down (possibly multiple times) they’re likely to address the running game first and foremost (RB, OL). That would be playing to the strength of the draft while addressing a key need.
With some appealing defensive talent likely to be available in rounds 3-7, they might be willing to wait to add to the defensive front seven and secondary.
Positon-by-position thoughts from the combine
Quarterback
Josh Allen showed off his exceptional arm talent and combined with his size and mobility, there’s a very good chance he and Saquon Barkley will be the first two players drafted. Josh Rosen, Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson didn’t do anything to harm their chances of going in round one and while Sam Darnold chose not to throw, it’s unlikely teams will be overly concerned by that. All five players could go in the first frame but the depth beyond that isn’t particularly good.
Seahawks targets: Unless they really want to take a punt on developing Luke Falk, it seems like a draft where the Seahawks will again bypass the position.
Running back
The deepest and arguably strongest position in the class, this was a good combine for the position and the Seahawks as they will likely add at least one running back in April. Nick Chubb showed he’s back to his explosive best following his knee injury, Kerryon ‘underrated’ Johnson had a sensational performance and Derrius Guice tested better than many (including myself) expected. Rashaad Penny and Royce Freeman performed well. Bo Scarborough will be well worth a pick in the fourth round range, while John Kelly is a dynamic complimentary back with the capability of carrying the load on occasion. We could see eight backs leave the board in the top-75. The only disappointment was Ronald Jones II’s hamstring injury running the forty. Expect a big performance at the USC pro-day from Jamaal Charles 2.0.
Seahawks targets: Nick Chubb has every physical trait the Seahawks have looked for in a running back in the Pete Carroll era. They’ve consistently valued explosive athleticism and a particular size. Kerryon Johnson isn’t just an explosive runner, he set the tone for Auburn during their SEC Championship game run. John Kelly and Bo Scarborough could be options in the fourth or fifth round range. And although Ronald Jones II suffered an injury, he has a genuine ‘IT’ factor and has to be considered an option too. A quick final point on Chubb. He’s often described as the ‘north-south’ compliment to Sony Michel. Chubb ran a faster forty (4.52 vs 4.54) and the short shuttle times are similar too (4.25 vs 4.21). Do not underestimate the importance of explosive traits for Seattle running backs. Chubb’s 38.5 inch vertical and 10-8 broad plus Kerryon Johnson’s 40 inch vertical and 10-6 broad stand out. It feels like at least one if not two of Chubb, Johnson, Jones II, Scarborough and Kelly will be wearing navy blue next year.
Offensive line
It’s not a good offensive tackle class. We’ll likely see 2-3 go in the first round because of the importance of the position but we might not see a single tackle garnering consistent first round grades. Kolton Miller and Mike McGlinchey might be the two who make it. On the other hand, it’s an outstanding looking interior O-line class. Quenton Nelson, Will Hernandez, Austin Corbett, Braden Smith and Wyatt Teller all excelled during drills and all but Corbett had an explosive workout according to TEF. Billy Price, Isaiah Wynn and Frank Ragnow didn’t work out but they could join Nelson, Hernandez and Corbett in being taken before the end of round two.
Seahawks targets: It’s a little difficult to say given the change of O-line coach. However, they have a fantastic opportunity to add both a new ‘franchise’ running back and a top option at left guard in this class. Wynn, to me, compares favourably to Zack Martin. He’s that good. Will Hernandez had an exceptional workout. He’s 20lbs lighter and looked the best during the kick-slide and agility drills. Both Wynn and Hernandez could go between 25-35. If they take a running back first, Corbett is an option if they still want to draft a guard early. Smith had the most explosive O-line TEF test (3.52) since we started recording data and he had a strong career at Auburn.
Wide receiver
It’s been clear for some time that this isn’t a class with multiple first round receiver prospects. Calvin Ridley didn’t test well athletically but he looked very crisp during drills and he’s adept at route running and finding ways to get open consistently. He might be the only wide out taken on day one. After that, D.J. Moore, Courtland Sutton and D.J. Chark might follow. All three tested well at the combine, particularly Moore (4.42 forty, 39.5 inch vertical, 11-0 broad) and Chark (4.34 forty, 40 inch vertical, 10-9 broad). James Washington didn’t have a great combine but there’s been plenty of talk that he’ll find a home in the 25-40 range.
Seahawks targets: It feels like free agency might provide a solution here. They might need to replace the production of both Jimmy Graham in the red zone and Paul Richardson. John Schneider recently talked about how hard it is for college receivers to transition to the pro’s and make an impact. There are big-bodied wide outs that could appeal on day three including Auden Tate, Simmie Cobbs and Marcell Ateman but none tested well here and the Seahawks have consistently looked for receivers able to run a 4.4. Equanimeous St. Brown could be a possible target after he ran a 4.48. Smaller, more dynamic players like Keke Coutee, Anthony Miller and Dante Pettis could provide some value. Antonio Callaway is a character flag disaster but might be the most natural receiver in the class after Ridley. Javon Wims at Georgia is another mid or later round possibility and he has some size.
Tight end
Before the combine it was distinctly possible no tight ends would be drafted in the first two rounds. Mark Andrews, Dallas Goedert and Troy Fumagalli were all very overrated. Mike Gesicki’s performance likely means at least one will find a home in the first two rounds. He had one of the all-time great workouts for a tight end, managing a 4.54 forty, a 41.5 inch vertical and a 10-9 broad jump. He tested well in the three cone (6.76) and short shuttle too (4.10). And he did all this at 6-5 and 247lbs. The thing is, he isn’t a blocker. At all. So he’s a step below O.J. Howard and he isn’t the dynamic sprinter that Evan Engram was. So we’ll see if teams want to take what amounts to a big slot receiver in the top-40. Apart from Gesicki, it was a middling tight end display with only likely H-back/full back Jaylen Samuels providing any intrigue.
Seahawks targets: Let’s assume they aren’t going to spend a high pick on Gesicki. They spent three years trying to turn Jimmy Graham into the complete tight end. Are they really going to spend the next three trying to turn Gesicki into something he isn’t too? They might look to re-sign Luke Willson and add a blocking tight end in free agency. If not, there are three names to keep an eye on. Stanford’s Dalton Schultz, Notre Dame’s Durham Smythe and Washington’s Will Dissly didn’t pull up any trees in Indianapolis. However, all three were asked predominantly to block in college and all three had success in doing so. Schultz in particular opened up many lanes for Bryce Love. If they want to add a ‘Y’ tight end, these three are players to monitor. Unless, of course, they are completely enamoured with a 6-5, 247lbs freak of nature.
Defensive line
Sunday’s session was a mixed bag. Only two EDGE rushers ran an elite 1.5 10-yard split (Harold Landry & Josh Sweat), only four pass rushers ran a sub-7.00 three-cone and the main highlight in the agility testing was Sam Hubbard recording the sixth fastest time for a D-liner in the last 10 years (6.84). We saw fewer explosive testers this year too. There were some big stand out performances though. Taven Bryan was a big winner, performing well in TEF (3.58) while still managing an excellent 1.68 10-yard split and a 4.48 short shuttle. Josh Sweat might’ve propelled himself into the second round with an incredible running and jumping display. Harold Landry likely secured a place in round one too. Several players didn’t run or jump particularly well but performed well in the drills including Tim Settle and Derrick Nnadi. Da’Ron Payne isn’t an explosive defender (TEF: 2.89) but he’s extremely quick (1.67 10-yard).
Seahawks targets: Sweat might be out of range for them now and the options at SAM/LEO appear limited. However, there are a number of appealing later round options. We know the Seahawks like their interior linemen and inside/out rushers to perform well in the short shuttle and 10-yard split. We also know they haven’t drafted a D-liner with sub-33 inch arms. Jalyn Holmes, Kentavius Street and Breeland Speaks all showed great quickness over a short area while Andrew Brown, B.J. Hill, Nathan Shepherd and Foley Fatukasi performed well in the short shuttle. There are several explosive testers they might look at too, including Tyquan Lewis (TEF: 3.48), Chad Thomas (TEF: 3.06) and Da’Shawn Hand (TEF: 3.14). Shepherd, a small school prospect, excelled in the drills to follow up a strong Senior Bowl performance. Sadly, he has 32 inch arms. We’ll have to see if that matters.
Linebacker
The first round options are attractive but there might not be quite as much depth at the position as we first thought. Tremaine Edmunds will likely find a home in the top-12. Leighton Vander Esch could go in the top-20 after a sensational performance in the jumps (39.5 inch vertical, 10-4 broad), short shuttle (4.15) and three-cone (6.88). Roquan Smith and Lorenzo Carter carry injury flags according to Tony Pauline but both could still find a home in round one. It was felt Rashaan Evans needed a good combine to secure a first round slot but he passed on running. It’s unclear if Malik Jefferson did enough to secure a home in round two after a good but not great display. It was disappointing that Darius Leonard only managed one forty (4.70) and didn’t compete in any of the drills.
Seahawks targets: Seattle could use some youth and speed at linebacker but it was sadly lacking here. Only six players ran a sub-4.55 forty (Jerome Baker, Lorenzo Carter, Tremaine Edmunds, Shaquem Griffin, Malik Jefferson, Roquan Smith) and all but two of those players (Baker, Griffin) are likely to go in a palatable range. Griffin was the talk of the combine after his 4.38 forty and the Seahawks might be interested in pairing him with his twin brother. There is another test the Seahawks seem to value at linebacker and that’s the short shuttle (more detail here). There were several players who ran an excellent 4.2 shuttle — Matthew Thomas, Oren Burks, Micah Kiser, Christian Sam and Fred Warner. Thomas (41.5 inch vertical, 10-11 broad), Burks (39.5 inch vertical, 10-11 broad) and Warner (38.5 inch vertical, 9-11 broad) all had explosive workouts while Kiser tested much better than expected and was a crucial leader for Virginia in college. They could find a late round option or two within this bunch.
Cornerback
As noted above, it was an unimpressive group. The way the drills were executed today was awkward and messy, with several false starts. At one point Deion Sanders remarked: “We’re missing the energy givers, the guys who know, man, I am the guy. I’m not seeing that yet in the corners.” He was right. Usually the CB class is loaded with alpha’s. This was a shy and retiring bunch seemingly trying too hard not to make a mistake. Jaire Alexander was the standout performer in drills but unless teams want to reach, there are limited first round options here. Denzel Ward could be the only corner to go early. Tarvarus McFadden had a very difficult morning.
Seahawks options: I’m going to include Tre Flowers here. He worked out with the safety’s but ran a 4.45 at 6-3 and 202lbs. He has 34 inch arms. He just looked like a Seattle corner running through the drills. Very few of the cornerbacks impressed today but Holton Hill, Levi Wallace and Isaac Yiadom are three names that fit their size/length criteria. Auburn’s Carlton Davis might go a round or two too early. If they add a cornerback in the draft this year, it might be someone who wasn’t invited to the combine they spot on the pro-day trail.
Safety
It took until the final session but finally there was a bit of a buzz around a positional group. For once several players overachieved. Many of the forty times were faster than the cornerbacks and the drills were a lot smoother and well executed. Troy Akpe ran a 4.34, jumped a 41.5 inch vertical and looked really good in his transition and backpedal. Justin Reid is built like a tank and ran a 4.40. He could go in the first round. Minkah Fitzpatrick likely secured a place in the 8-15 range of the first round while Derwin James put on a show in the drills and the tests. You would imagine, based on this performance, he’ll go in the top-20.
Seahawks targets: The first name I’m going to mention tested with the linebackers — Clemson’s Dorian O’Daniel. He didn’t run well (4.61) but he did manage a really good short shuttle of 4.07. He’s been touted as a safety convert for some time at 6-0 and 223lbs. He could be a later round target they try to develop as a strong safety. Terrell Edmunds was fast and explosive and has the bloodlines, Dane Cruikshank had a terrific workout and Natrell Jamerson excelled too. Jessie Bates III could be an option in rounds 2-3. If they want to take a safety early the most likely options are Derwin James and Justin Reid.
Any post-combine predictions?
— Saquon Barkley & Josh Allen will be the top two picks in the draft. Perhaps Cleveland will trade with the Giants to secure both players?
— The Seahawks will trade down at least once and will draft a running back early. The options? I think it’ll be one of Nick Chubb, Kerryon Johnson or Ronald Jones II. Ideally they’ll be able to acquire one of Will Hernandez, Isaiah Wynn or Billy Price too.
— Vita Vea will be a Tampa Bay Buccaneer and if not, his floor is Washington at #13.
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