Category: Scouting Report (Page 3 of 38)

The 2018 NFL combine review

Firstly, if you missed this earlier — be sure to listen to the Seahawkers Podcast below. I was invited on to talk about the combine:

The lasting memory of this combine will be — underwhelming, too many injuries and very few headline performances.

It highlighted the following:

1. The lack of legit first round prospects

2. The greater value in rounds 2-3 compared to round one

3. Confirmed this is a good draft for interior offensive linemen, running backs and linebackers (early) and not so much for cornerbacks, receivers or offensive tackles

The big positive was the athletic performance of the safety class which far exceeded expectations. We’ll start with a few thoughts on the defensive backs today…

Cornerbacks seriously underwhelm

This was one of the sloppiest group performances in recent memory. Numerous players had to stop and re-start certain drills. At one point Mike Mayock remarked:

“I think I’ve seen more guys get stopped in these drills than I’ve ever seen. Which is not a good thing.”

Iowa cornerback Joshua Jackson was stopped four times, including twice on one drill. It was a messy session with several players coasting or failing to execute.

Very few players impressed but Louisville’s Jaire Alexander was an exception. He excelled in the drills after running a 4.38. He doesn’t fit Seattle’s measurables at 5-10 and 196lbs with only 31 1/8 inch arms but he was the most impressive performer. Alabama’s Levi Wallace also had a strong outing but needs to add size at 6-0 and 179lbs.

Jackson coasted way too much and Mike Hughes was mostly unimpressive too. Both players have been touted as possible first round picks but there was very little evidence of that today. Denzel Ward ran well (4.32) but he had to at his size (5-10, 183lbs). Ward might be the only cornerback taken in round one and his stock might be limited due to his frame.

Safety’s put on a show

As disappointing as the cornerbacks were, the safety’s were the complete opposite. Many of the safety’s actually ran faster than the cornerbacks. The expectation was that this isn’t a particularly deep class at the position but on this evidence, there’ll be some intriguing options lasting into day three.

Stanford’s Justin Reid likely pushed his way into the first round conversation with his performance. Oklahoma State’s Trey Flowers is tall and lean (6-3, 202lbs) with great length (34 inch arms) and could be a possible cornerback conversion for the Seahawks. He ran in the 4.4’s.

Penn State’s Troy Akpe (6-1, 200lbs, +32 inch arms, 4.34, 41 inch vertical) and Terrell Edmunds (6-0, 217lbs, 33 inch arms, 4.47, 41.5 inch vertical, 11-2 broad) are worth a closer look in the coming days. Arizona’s Dane Cruikshank and Wisconsin’s Natrell Jamerson likewise warrant further study.

Derwin James did everything well in terms of testing and looked very smooth in transition and changing direction during the drills.

What did we learn about this draft class at the combine?

A normal draft class includes about 15-20 players graded in the first round. This year, that number could be lower. It’s possibly at about 10-15 but will vary from team to team.

It means the grade difference between a player drafted in the 20-30 range will be very similar to players taken in round two. This year, the best value is going to be found in rounds 2-3.

Rather than present a rare opportunity for the Seahawks to get a blue-chip player, at #18 they’re more likely to be just outside the zone where you’ll get true first round value.

What can we take away from this week for the Seahawks?

Pete Carroll reaffirmed his desire to improve the running game in a conversation with Mike Florio. Nothing about this combine suggests it won’t be Seattle’s #1 draft priority.

If (when?) the Seahawks trade down (possibly multiple times) they’re likely to address the running game first and foremost (RB, OL). That would be playing to the strength of the draft while addressing a key need.

With some appealing defensive talent likely to be available in rounds 3-7, they might be willing to wait to add to the defensive front seven and secondary.

Positon-by-position thoughts from the combine

Quarterback
Josh Allen showed off his exceptional arm talent and combined with his size and mobility, there’s a very good chance he and Saquon Barkley will be the first two players drafted. Josh Rosen, Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson didn’t do anything to harm their chances of going in round one and while Sam Darnold chose not to throw, it’s unlikely teams will be overly concerned by that. All five players could go in the first frame but the depth beyond that isn’t particularly good.

Seahawks targets: Unless they really want to take a punt on developing Luke Falk, it seems like a draft where the Seahawks will again bypass the position.

Running back
The deepest and arguably strongest position in the class, this was a good combine for the position and the Seahawks as they will likely add at least one running back in April. Nick Chubb showed he’s back to his explosive best following his knee injury, Kerryon ‘underrated’ Johnson had a sensational performance and Derrius Guice tested better than many (including myself) expected. Rashaad Penny and Royce Freeman performed well. Bo Scarborough will be well worth a pick in the fourth round range, while John Kelly is a dynamic complimentary back with the capability of carrying the load on occasion. We could see eight backs leave the board in the top-75. The only disappointment was Ronald Jones II’s hamstring injury running the forty. Expect a big performance at the USC pro-day from Jamaal Charles 2.0.

Seahawks targets: Nick Chubb has every physical trait the Seahawks have looked for in a running back in the Pete Carroll era. They’ve consistently valued explosive athleticism and a particular size. Kerryon Johnson isn’t just an explosive runner, he set the tone for Auburn during their SEC Championship game run. John Kelly and Bo Scarborough could be options in the fourth or fifth round range. And although Ronald Jones II suffered an injury, he has a genuine ‘IT’ factor and has to be considered an option too. A quick final point on Chubb. He’s often described as the ‘north-south’ compliment to Sony Michel. Chubb ran a faster forty (4.52 vs 4.54) and the short shuttle times are similar too (4.25 vs 4.21). Do not underestimate the importance of explosive traits for Seattle running backs. Chubb’s 38.5 inch vertical and 10-8 broad plus Kerryon Johnson’s 40 inch vertical and 10-6 broad stand out. It feels like at least one if not two of Chubb, Johnson, Jones II, Scarborough and Kelly will be wearing navy blue next year.

Offensive line
It’s not a good offensive tackle class. We’ll likely see 2-3 go in the first round because of the importance of the position but we might not see a single tackle garnering consistent first round grades. Kolton Miller and Mike McGlinchey might be the two who make it. On the other hand, it’s an outstanding looking interior O-line class. Quenton Nelson, Will Hernandez, Austin Corbett, Braden Smith and Wyatt Teller all excelled during drills and all but Corbett had an explosive workout according to TEF. Billy Price, Isaiah Wynn and Frank Ragnow didn’t work out but they could join Nelson, Hernandez and Corbett in being taken before the end of round two.

Seahawks targets: It’s a little difficult to say given the change of O-line coach. However, they have a fantastic opportunity to add both a new ‘franchise’ running back and a top option at left guard in this class. Wynn, to me, compares favourably to Zack Martin. He’s that good. Will Hernandez had an exceptional workout. He’s 20lbs lighter and looked the best during the kick-slide and agility drills. Both Wynn and Hernandez could go between 25-35. If they take a running back first, Corbett is an option if they still want to draft a guard early. Smith had the most explosive O-line TEF test (3.52) since we started recording data and he had a strong career at Auburn.

Wide receiver
It’s been clear for some time that this isn’t a class with multiple first round receiver prospects. Calvin Ridley didn’t test well athletically but he looked very crisp during drills and he’s adept at route running and finding ways to get open consistently. He might be the only wide out taken on day one. After that, D.J. Moore, Courtland Sutton and D.J. Chark might follow. All three tested well at the combine, particularly Moore (4.42 forty, 39.5 inch vertical, 11-0 broad) and Chark (4.34 forty, 40 inch vertical, 10-9 broad). James Washington didn’t have a great combine but there’s been plenty of talk that he’ll find a home in the 25-40 range.

Seahawks targets: It feels like free agency might provide a solution here. They might need to replace the production of both Jimmy Graham in the red zone and Paul Richardson. John Schneider recently talked about how hard it is for college receivers to transition to the pro’s and make an impact. There are big-bodied wide outs that could appeal on day three including Auden Tate, Simmie Cobbs and Marcell Ateman but none tested well here and the Seahawks have consistently looked for receivers able to run a 4.4. Equanimeous St. Brown could be a possible target after he ran a 4.48. Smaller, more dynamic players like Keke Coutee, Anthony Miller and Dante Pettis could provide some value. Antonio Callaway is a character flag disaster but might be the most natural receiver in the class after Ridley. Javon Wims at Georgia is another mid or later round possibility and he has some size.

Tight end
Before the combine it was distinctly possible no tight ends would be drafted in the first two rounds. Mark Andrews, Dallas Goedert and Troy Fumagalli were all very overrated. Mike Gesicki’s performance likely means at least one will find a home in the first two rounds. He had one of the all-time great workouts for a tight end, managing a 4.54 forty, a 41.5 inch vertical and a 10-9 broad jump. He tested well in the three cone (6.76) and short shuttle too (4.10). And he did all this at 6-5 and 247lbs. The thing is, he isn’t a blocker. At all. So he’s a step below O.J. Howard and he isn’t the dynamic sprinter that Evan Engram was. So we’ll see if teams want to take what amounts to a big slot receiver in the top-40. Apart from Gesicki, it was a middling tight end display with only likely H-back/full back Jaylen Samuels providing any intrigue.

Seahawks targets: Let’s assume they aren’t going to spend a high pick on Gesicki. They spent three years trying to turn Jimmy Graham into the complete tight end. Are they really going to spend the next three trying to turn Gesicki into something he isn’t too? They might look to re-sign Luke Willson and add a blocking tight end in free agency. If not, there are three names to keep an eye on. Stanford’s Dalton Schultz, Notre Dame’s Durham Smythe and Washington’s Will Dissly didn’t pull up any trees in Indianapolis. However, all three were asked predominantly to block in college and all three had success in doing so. Schultz in particular opened up many lanes for Bryce Love. If they want to add a ‘Y’ tight end, these three are players to monitor. Unless, of course, they are completely enamoured with a 6-5, 247lbs freak of nature.

Defensive line
Sunday’s session was a mixed bag. Only two EDGE rushers ran an elite 1.5 10-yard split (Harold Landry & Josh Sweat), only four pass rushers ran a sub-7.00 three-cone and the main highlight in the agility testing was Sam Hubbard recording the sixth fastest time for a D-liner in the last 10 years (6.84). We saw fewer explosive testers this year too. There were some big stand out performances though. Taven Bryan was a big winner, performing well in TEF (3.58) while still managing an excellent 1.68 10-yard split and a 4.48 short shuttle. Josh Sweat might’ve propelled himself into the second round with an incredible running and jumping display. Harold Landry likely secured a place in round one too. Several players didn’t run or jump particularly well but performed well in the drills including Tim Settle and Derrick Nnadi. Da’Ron Payne isn’t an explosive defender (TEF: 2.89) but he’s extremely quick (1.67 10-yard).

Seahawks targets: Sweat might be out of range for them now and the options at SAM/LEO appear limited. However, there are a number of appealing later round options. We know the Seahawks like their interior linemen and inside/out rushers to perform well in the short shuttle and 10-yard split. We also know they haven’t drafted a D-liner with sub-33 inch arms. Jalyn Holmes, Kentavius Street and Breeland Speaks all showed great quickness over a short area while Andrew Brown, B.J. Hill, Nathan Shepherd and Foley Fatukasi performed well in the short shuttle. There are several explosive testers they might look at too, including Tyquan Lewis (TEF: 3.48), Chad Thomas (TEF: 3.06) and Da’Shawn Hand (TEF: 3.14). Shepherd, a small school prospect, excelled in the drills to follow up a strong Senior Bowl performance. Sadly, he has 32 inch arms. We’ll have to see if that matters.

Linebacker
The first round options are attractive but there might not be quite as much depth at the position as we first thought. Tremaine Edmunds will likely find a home in the top-12. Leighton Vander Esch could go in the top-20 after a sensational performance in the jumps (39.5 inch vertical, 10-4 broad), short shuttle (4.15) and three-cone (6.88). Roquan Smith and Lorenzo Carter carry injury flags according to Tony Pauline but both could still find a home in round one. It was felt Rashaan Evans needed a good combine to secure a first round slot but he passed on running. It’s unclear if Malik Jefferson did enough to secure a home in round two after a good but not great display. It was disappointing that Darius Leonard only managed one forty (4.70) and didn’t compete in any of the drills.

Seahawks targets: Seattle could use some youth and speed at linebacker but it was sadly lacking here. Only six players ran a sub-4.55 forty (Jerome Baker, Lorenzo Carter, Tremaine Edmunds, Shaquem Griffin, Malik Jefferson, Roquan Smith) and all but two of those players (Baker, Griffin) are likely to go in a palatable range. Griffin was the talk of the combine after his 4.38 forty and the Seahawks might be interested in pairing him with his twin brother. There is another test the Seahawks seem to value at linebacker and that’s the short shuttle (more detail here). There were several players who ran an excellent 4.2 shuttle — Matthew Thomas, Oren Burks, Micah Kiser, Christian Sam and Fred Warner. Thomas (41.5 inch vertical, 10-11 broad), Burks (39.5 inch vertical, 10-11 broad) and Warner (38.5 inch vertical, 9-11 broad) all had explosive workouts while Kiser tested much better than expected and was a crucial leader for Virginia in college. They could find a late round option or two within this bunch.

Cornerback
As noted above, it was an unimpressive group. The way the drills were executed today was awkward and messy, with several false starts. At one point Deion Sanders remarked: “We’re missing the energy givers, the guys who know, man, I am the guy. I’m not seeing that yet in the corners.” He was right. Usually the CB class is loaded with alpha’s. This was a shy and retiring bunch seemingly trying too hard not to make a mistake. Jaire Alexander was the standout performer in drills but unless teams want to reach, there are limited first round options here. Denzel Ward could be the only corner to go early. Tarvarus McFadden had a very difficult morning.

Seahawks options: I’m going to include Tre Flowers here. He worked out with the safety’s but ran a 4.45 at 6-3 and 202lbs. He has 34 inch arms. He just looked like a Seattle corner running through the drills. Very few of the cornerbacks impressed today but Holton Hill, Levi Wallace and Isaac Yiadom are three names that fit their size/length criteria. Auburn’s Carlton Davis might go a round or two too early. If they add a cornerback in the draft this year, it might be someone who wasn’t invited to the combine they spot on the pro-day trail.

Safety
It took until the final session but finally there was a bit of a buzz around a positional group. For once several players overachieved. Many of the forty times were faster than the cornerbacks and the drills were a lot smoother and well executed. Troy Akpe ran a 4.34, jumped a 41.5 inch vertical and looked really good in his transition and backpedal. Justin Reid is built like a tank and ran a 4.40. He could go in the first round. Minkah Fitzpatrick likely secured a place in the 8-15 range of the first round while Derwin James put on a show in the drills and the tests. You would imagine, based on this performance, he’ll go in the top-20.

Seahawks targets: The first name I’m going to mention tested with the linebackers — Clemson’s Dorian O’Daniel. He didn’t run well (4.61) but he did manage a really good short shuttle of 4.07. He’s been touted as a safety convert for some time at 6-0 and 223lbs. He could be a later round target they try to develop as a strong safety. Terrell Edmunds was fast and explosive and has the bloodlines, Dane Cruikshank had a terrific workout and Natrell Jamerson excelled too. Jessie Bates III could be an option in rounds 2-3. If they want to take a safety early the most likely options are Derwin James and Justin Reid.

Any post-combine predictions?

— Saquon Barkley & Josh Allen will be the top two picks in the draft. Perhaps Cleveland will trade with the Giants to secure both players?

— The Seahawks will trade down at least once and will draft a running back early. The options? I think it’ll be one of Nick Chubb, Kerryon Johnson or Ronald Jones II. Ideally they’ll be able to acquire one of Will Hernandez, Isaiah Wynn or Billy Price too.

— Vita Vea will be a Tampa Bay Buccaneer and if not, his floor is Washington at #13.

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Top-25 prospects broken into tiers

I wanted to put this down before the combine — then reflect on it afterwards to see what has changed. Some of the names below contain hyperlinks. The links take you to individual articles written about the player in question. So if you want more info/opinion, click on the name.

Tier One

Saquon Barkley (RB, Penn State)
Quenton Nelson (G, Notre Dame)
Tremaine Edmunds (LB, Virginia Tech)
Bradley Chubb (DE, NC State)
Vita Vea (DT, Washington)

The five freakish difference makers in the class. Barkley could be the most explosive offensive player to enter the league in a generation with a jump-cut to die for. Nelson will likely have a Steve Hutchinson impact on the league. Edmunds is the most unique player in the class — incredible size, length, versatility. There isn’t another player like him in the league.

Chubb has the same bloodlines as cousin Nick and we know how incredible he is as an athlete. Vea’s mobility and quickness at 340lbs is shocking and can only truly be appreciated watching him live. All five players should go in the top-10.

Tier two

Sam Darnold (QB, USC)
Josh Rosen (QB, UCLA)
Ronald Jones II (RB, USC)
Billy Price (C/G, Ohio State)
Isaiah Wynn (G, Georgia)
Tim Settle (DT, Virginia Tech)
Maurice Hurst (DT, Michigan)

The quarterbacks both have talent and upside but some question marks. Darnold has incredible potential but isn’t anywhere near as refined as DeShaun Watson a year ago (Watson was criminally underrated pre-draft by the media). Rosen technically looks the part but there are questions about his personality.

Jones II is a Jamaal Charles clone and a player with legitimate star quality. An exceptional prospect. Price is intense, plays with occasional reckless abandon and goes after the opponent. He sets the tone up front. Wynn reminds me of Zack Martin at Notre Dame. He isn’t the biggest, he isn’t the most explosive or athletic. He is just really fundamentally sound and tough to beat. He doesn’t make mistakes.

Settle won’t run like Vita Vea and he doesn’t carry his weight as well. Yet as a pass rusher it’s quite incredible to watch a player of his size swim/rip like he does, not to mention his excellent get-off. He’s the best 330lbs pass rusher you’ll see in a long time. Maurice Hurst is a classic three-technique with great quickness off the snap, solid hand-technique and a consistent ability to impact games from the interior. Players like Hurst are rare.

Tier three

Lamar Jackson (QB, Louisville)
Leighton Vander Esch (LB, Boise State)
Roquan Smith (LB, Georgia)
Minkah Fitzpatrick (S, Alabama)
Taven Bryan (DT, Florida)

Jackson has a rocket arm, showed major improvement as a touch passer in 2017 and is capable of being a Michael Vick-style playmaker. He is Vick. And for some reason people aren’t giving him his dues. Fitzpatrick on the other hand is the opposite — a little bit overrated — and more likely to go in the 10-15 range than the top-10.

Vander Esch is a modern day linebacker. He has the size to play inside at middle linebacker in any scheme, the range and mobility to run to the sideline and the instinct to be a major playmaker. In a couple of years he could be up there with Wagner and Kuechly as the best in the game. Smith gets a lot of top-15 love but you have to remember — he’s not a burner and he’s going to weigh about 225lbs. I like him as a player but we have to acknowledge he won’t fit every team or scheme. Smith will be a first rounder and likely a very useful pro but probably won’t go as early as some are projecting.

Bryan has incredible upside and while he might need a redshirt year to work things out, he has inside/out rush ability and the potential to be an absolute game-wrecker.

Tier four

Rasheem Green (DE, USC)
Derwin James (S, Florida State)
Marcus Davenport (DE, UTSA)

I watched some of Green this week and came away impressed with his physical potential. Whether he can take it to the next level and continue to grow remains to be seen but he has sensational size and length and carries his weight extremely well. He ran a 4.44 short shuttle at the Nike combine at 290lbs and achieved a 113.04 SPARQ rating. He could be a big time riser after the combine.

James will likely have an explosive combine too — testing well in the jumps. Yet he is what he is — a box safety that didn’t impact many games with big plays. I’ve said before, his tape is a bit boring. He has appealing character traits and size. He’ll go in round one. How early remains up for debate.

Davenport didn’t perform as well as hoped at the Senior Bowl and came across as a bit shy and retiring. He too might need a redshirt year and strong coaching/guidance. Yet his tape and physical ability warrants a first round pick.

Tier five
Da’Ron Payne (DT, Alabama)
Kerryon Johnson (RB, Auburn)
Rashaan Evans (LB, Alabama)
Calvin Ridley (WR, Alabama)
Baker Mayfield (QB, Oklahoma)

Payne is the strongest D-line prospect in the class with the size and bulk to act as a key run defender. He showed, especially in the two Playoff games, he also has some pass rush potential. Johnson (when healthy) was leading Auburn to a possible National Championship. His upright running style could invite injury and he’s not the quickest but he runs with authority, he’s tough and he has fantastic patience in the backfield.

Evans plays with his hair on fire and doesn’t hit, he hammers opponents. The combine will be crucial for his stock. He’s likely a late first rounder. Ridley isn’t big or particularly fast but he’s adept at getting open and he’s consistent. Mayfield won the Heisman and is clearly a playmaker but he lacks the physical tools of the other top quarterbacks available.

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The future of the Seahawks defense?

Let’s call this a first draft because we’ll receive so much information at the combine. We need to know 10-yard split times for the LEO candidates, short shuttle times for the linebackers, length and size for the cornerbacks and a lot more.

That said, here’s a review of some of the possible options if the Seahawks do gut the defense and decide to get a lot younger in 2018…

D-line & Pass rush

Possible departures: Cliff Avril, Michael Bennett, Sheldon Richardson

The Seahawks could do with adding a LEO. They need quickness off the edge. Rutgers’ Kemoko Turay could be the ideal player for the role — with excellent get-off, at least some evidence of good hand technique and a great athletic profile. He looked explosive at the Senior Bowl and has a ton of potential. If the Seahawks are able to acquire extra picks in the third or fourth round range, Turay could be a key acquisition.

It’s going to need to be someone with good length, a really quick 10-yard split and overall high athleticism. The 1.50-1.59 splits are the ones to look out for at the combine. There won’t be many but if Turay manages it at 6-5 and 252lbs he could quite easily be a Seahawks target.

Alternatives at LEO? Boston College’s Harold Landry could be targeted albeit with a much earlier pick. We know Florida State’s Josh Sweat is a fantastic athlete. If you’re comfortable with his injury history, he’s another option. Sweat ran a 4.46 at 240lbs at the SPARQ combine.

What else might they need? It’s hard to say. If Malik McDowell returns there’s every chance he could fill the void left by either Sheldon Richardson or Michael Bennett. Dion Jordan equally has some inside/out ability now he’s added size and Frank Clark isn’t small either. If you knew all three would be healthy and available going into camp you might feel quite comfortable about the situation. There’s very little news on McDowell however and Jordan missed most of the 2017 season.

NC State’s Kentavius Street could be a possible three-technique option. He’s about 280lbs these days but what an athlete. At the SPARQ combine he ran a 4.70, managed a 36-inch vertical and a 4.44 short shuttle. His SPARQ score was 115.41. He’s said to be an even better athlete these days too, plus he’s a former four-star recruit. He’s being projected as a late rounder and could be someone the Seahawks want to work with.

Ohio State’s Tyquan Lewis is no slouch and he had a good showing at the Senior Bowl. He scored 108.57 at the SPARQ combine including a 37 inch vertical. He’s a possible inside/out rusher who could last as he had to operate in a heavy rotation with the Buckeyes. He’s also someone who could develop into a leader. Auburn’s Jeff Holland lacks an attractive physical profile but plays with intensity and skill.

Virginia’s Andrew Brown is another prospect with upside who could be available on day three. A former five-star recruit he also performed well at the Senior Bowl. He managed a 103.11 SPARQ rating in High School and ran a 4.47 short shuttle at 295lbs.

The Seahawks have also shown they’re adept at finding veteran talent on the defensive line over the years. So on top of the options in the draft, there’s every chance they’ll bring in some options in free agency too.

Cornerback

Possible departures: Richard Sherman

We’ll need to see how the players measure at the combine. The Seahawks have stuck to a strict body type since 2010 and that isn’t likely to change. Whatever happens with Sherman, the Seahawks could do with adding another cornerback in the round 4-7 range this year to train up.

Despite many of the national mock drafts touting a cornerback to Seattle in round one, the chances are remote at best. They haven’t taken a CB earlier than the late third round under Pete Carroll. There’s very little reason to believe that’ll change this year. It won’t even be a position of significant need if they retain Sherman and re-sign Maxwell (hardly improbable scenarios). The Seahawks believe in their (proven) ability to develop young cornerbacks without spending high picks. That simply won’t change unless they’re picking in the top ten and happen to see a Jalen Ramsey or Patrick Peterson waiting for them.

LSU’s Kevin Toliver is said to be 6-3 and 203lbs with good length. He’s a former five-star recruit who never really lived up to expectations in college. According to his NFL.com bio, Toliver has “an entitled attitude” and a big ego. It could put a lot of teams off, including the Seahawks, but they did draft Tharold Simon who similarly faced criticism for his time at LSU. It’s unusual for a player with Toliver’s potential to last into the round four range but if he does, they might see him as a project worth taking on. He’d be a nice challenge for a team with Seattle’s development chops.

Texas’ Holton Hill also possesses size, length and undelivered potential. He could be another attractive project. Virginia Tech’s Brandon Facyson also looks the part. He had a very strong start to his college career but a broken leg stalled his progress. He could be one of those players that falls a bit further than he should and provides some value.

Linebacker

Possible departures: No significant ones

This isn’t about replacing anyone, rather than bolstering the ranks. Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright need some help. And we saw what happened when Wagner wasn’t full-go and Wright was absent against the Rams. They could also do with adding a SAM/LEO type if possible.

Georgia’s Lorenzo Carter could be an option. At the Nike SPARQ combine he managed a 40-inch vertical at 6-5 and 234lbs. He’s highly explosive and athletic, posting a 129.75 SPARQ score. He’s not necessarily the quickest though (4.63 at the Nike combine) so his short-area quickness testing and 10-yard split could be crucial.

Another option could be South Carolina State’s Darius Leonard. Few bolstered their stock like Leonard at the Senior Bowl. He excelled in coverage drills against smaller, quicker running backs and had a couple of ferocious hits too. He has +34 inch arms and we know they really liked K.J. Wright for his length. Leonard looks and sounds like he’s ready for battle and could be a fantastic project for Ken Norton Jr.

Other options include Texas’ Malik Jefferson (who could be the combine’s big winner after his sensational Nike test) and Ohio State’s Jerome Baker. It’s a really good looking group of linebackers though. The combine will be fascinating and crucial. This is a position that seems to be thick throughout the draft and there will be attractive day three options to go with some of the early round studs.

Safety

Possible departures: Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor

It’s hard to get excited about this safety class and you can forget about replacing either of Seattle’s two legends. There probably won’t be another Earl or Kam. They’re unique people and players. If the Seahawks have to replace both, they’ll likely adjust their scheme to compensate.

The safety class is littered with players you kind of like but don’t love. Derwin James is a great athlete but his tape is boring and it’s a hard sell to draft a box safety in round one who doesn’t make a lot of big plays. He’s the popular pick for Seattle in mock drafts and there’s no doubting his athleticism and size. Is he worth their first round pick?
They’d have to believe he was a true ’tilt the field’ player to justify it. There’s a reason why they’ve only taken one defensive back in the first two rounds of the draft since 2010 (Earl Thomas).

Minkah Fitzpatrick is a bit overrated. Ronnie Harrison is perfectly fine as a prospect but might go earlier than warranted.

Wake Forest’s Jessie Bates III is probably the most intriguing player. He’s quick, clearly does his homework, understands the opponent and had a number of big plays as a redshirt freshman. He isn’t Earl but he could end up being a reliable starting safety. He’s consistent and disciplined which is important in Seattle’s scheme.

Virginia Tech’s Terrell Edmunds could be one to watch. He’s Tremaine’s brother and has good size (6-2, 220lbs). It’s also worth remembering the Seahawks could keep Bradley McDougald and only last year drafted Tedric Thompson and Delano Hill. San Francisco’s Eric Reid could be an option as a free agent too.

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Monday notes: Jeff Holland, Steven Mitchell Jr & more

Before we get started if you missed it yesterday, check out the Seahawkers podcast this week. There’s a ton of draft info from 12:37 in…

On to the notes. Featured today: Jeff Holland, Steven Mitchell Jr, Ronald Jones II and Derwin James…

— Auburn finished the SEC season superbly. They built momentum, rallied after a difficult loss to LSU and suddenly became the team to beat. They absolutely hammered Georgia, then comfortably handled Alabama in the Iron Bowl.

The two teams that eventually met in the Playoff decider — taken apart by Auburn.

They managed it playing a very familiar brand of football to Seattle (at least the 2012-15 version). Point guard quarterback. Fearsome running game. Jacked-up defense playing with their hair on fire, flying to the ball. This was a band of brothers, playing together with all three units connecting. The defense danced, celebrated and set the tone. It was like watching the LOB in 2013.

I remember thinking at the time — this is what the Seahawks used to be like. That energy, the physicality. It was a Gus Malzahn offense but at the heart of everything was a very classic combination of good running game and great defense.

If they want to get back to that — tapping into that Auburn spirit could be a possibility.

They’re not alone of course. Georgia got to the final with the same kind of ingredients. Alabama always play defense and run the ball. It’ll be interesting to see how many players the Seahawks cherry pick from those three schools.

The player I wanted to highlight today is EDGE rusher Jeff Holland.

He’s not the biggest (listed by ESPN at 6-2 and 250lbs) and it’s fair to say he’s not going to win Mr. Universe. He looks quite unremarkable in terms of his physique. He’s not the biggest or fastest.

Yet every time I watched Auburn in 2017, he stood out. He finished the season with 10 sacks, 13 TFL’s and four forced fumbles. Holland is a high-intensity, physical, fierce pass rusher with quickness off the snap. For his size he isn’t a liability against the run.

His best quality, however, is hand technique. His ability to use a two-handed swipe is highly impressive. He can rip and swim and he can beat a tackle off the edge with lean. Hand use continues to be one of the more lesser talked about features in the media — but it’s vital for a pass rusher. Holland spent a lot of time learning this skill:

Not being the biggest, fastest or most impressive athlete might dent Holland’s stock. He might not be on Seattle’s radar as a consequence. Yet there is talent to work with here and Holland did as much as anybody to embody the spirit of Auburn’s charged-up defense.

Look at this effort in pursuit (he’s #4):

On the first play he chases down the running back on a pitch, sprinting from the left hand side of the line to the right. On the second play he bullies the tackle before slamming down the quarterback on a draw.

Here’s an example of his hand use and how it keeps his frame clean and helps him get around the edge to the QB:

That’s the same play from different angles (broadcast & all-22). Look at the way he chops his hands at the tackle and stays clean.

He doesn’t have to use his hands. He has enough lean to get around the arc:

Here’s a clip where he uses the depth of the tackles’ drop to his advantage, jolts him off balance and beats him:

How is he working the goal line against the run? No touchdown here for Derrius Guice:

The Seahawks might need some of this attitude going forward:

Holland isn’t loaded with upside. He isn’t Frank Clark, Bruce Irvin or Cliff Avril. Unremarkable size and length. He probably won’t have an amazing combine. Admittedly, this would be a change of pace for the Seahawks. Against the bigger, stronger and quicker athletes at the next level, he might be less impactful.

He’s still intriguing in the middle rounds and you wouldn’t bet against this guy. Maybe they need one or two overachievers? You’re not going to have to worry about him being ‘all-in’. He might be able to fill a leadership void down the line. And if the Seahawks are moving on without Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett, they’ll need to find some possible options to help the pass rush.

And he can do this:

— I haven’t spent much time studying him yet but I wanted to mention USC receiver Steven Mitchell Jr. He can be a ferocious and committed blocker. I’m not sure if he’ll be on Seattle’s radar but USC’s #4 kept showing up on Ronald Jones II’s runs. He had 644 yards and four touchdowns in 2017. He’s only 5-10 and 194lbs (per ESPN). Mitchell Jr is willing to hit though and do some of the dirty work. He seems to take a great deal of enjoyment from blocking (often celebrating after a key block). In SPARQ testing he managed a score of 107.34 with a 33.5 inch vertical and a 4.55 forty. He’ll need to run faster than that at the combine but based on his tenacity he might be a name to remember.

Here are some highlights:

— Speaking of Ronald Jones II, there’s yet more evidence why he could easily be a first round target for the Seahawks. Fumble rates are very important. Dane Brugler has worked out how each running back in the draft ranks. Jones II has the third best fumble rate in the class. Ball security is key and it’s another big positive next to his uncanny similarity to Jamaal Charles (also note LSU’s Darrel Williams at the top, a late round option for Seattle).

This is also an interesting series of tweets/clips highlighting his play using all-22:

To follow the full strand of Tweets in this review, click here. Jones II is a special player. In the past, with the Seahawks picking later in round one, we’d be having a conversation about him being off the board by their pick. We had similar conversations about Haason Reddick, Sheldon Rankins, Garret Bolles, Keanu Neal, Odell Beckham Jr and others. Players initially projected by the media as first or second round types but ultimately they go much earlier. Jones II, to me, is a legit top-20 prospect.

— We’ve spent a lot of time talking about Derwin James but one more note won’t hurt. James was invited to participate in an online game of Madden 18 on the PS4 over the weekend. He accepted the challenge against a Florida State fan, noting he would donate a pair of his cleats if he was beaten.

As you can see James won somewhat comfortably. The interesting thing is he chose to play as the Seahawks. It could be nothing. It could be something. Who knows. It’s February and there’s no harm in a bit of speculation to pass the time.

Saturday notes: Run-draft, Dalton Schultz & Keke Coutee

— The Seahawks haven’t had a running game crisis like this since the end of the 2010 season. Pete Carroll stated, clearly, at the end of that season that fixing it would be a priority. He made similar noises in his latest press conference. The response in 2011? Seattle spent their first two draft picks on James Carpenter and John Moffitt. When the lockout concluded, they signed Zach Miller and Robert Gallery.

When the Seahawks have a need they tend to go after it aggressively. And this is, clearly I think, Seattle’s biggest problem. Carroll will coach up and field a capable defense. Without the running game, one of they key focal points of his identity isn’t there. The circle is incomplete.

It’s still very early in the process. Things will change. There’s a reason, however, that we’ve spent an increasing amount of time looking at Ronald Jones II, Isaiah Wynn and Billy Price for their first pick. These are three of the players that give you a chance to properly address the running game and take the offense forward.

If they ended up trading Earl Thomas and acquiring another high pick, it wouldn’t be a total surprise if they added two of Jones II, Wynn and Price. Just at they targeted Carpenter and Moffitt in 2011.

There are defensive options that could be appealing. Maurice Hurst, Derwin James. Others too. Yet fixing the run is absolutely crucial. And Jones II, Wynn and Price are all worthy of top-25 consideration.

— With Jimmy Graham almost certainly on the way out and Luke Willson also a free agent, the Seahawks have to do something at tight end. That could be a free agent pick-up but it could also be a draft pick. Following the Graham experiment, it feels like they’re more likely to target a tight end who can block.

We’ve talked about Notre Dame’s Durham Smythe. He’s a classic ‘Y’ tight end and has shown a strong ability to feature as a blocker. At the Senior Bowl he also impressed mightily as a pass catcher. He’s well sized with a good character.

Smythe is one to watch. He has short arms though — not ideal for blocking at the line or competing for difficult red zone catches. The tight end class across the board is a bit overrated and Seattle’s options might be quite narrow. Thankfully, there’s a Stanford tight end who could also provide a solution.

Dalton Schultz is a terrific blocker. Look at the play below. Schultz goes 1v1 with the DE. He stones him at the LOS and then dumps him to the ground and finishes the block:

This is what the Seahawks need. A tight end who can actually excel as a blocker.

The difference between Schultz and Smythe appears to be length. Schutlz is tall and long but lighter (estimated to be 242lbs). Yet his ability to keep his frame clean, lock on and sustain blocks is crucial. Here’s what Lance Zierlein noted when watching Schultz:

Very tenacious and tough as a blocker. Well-schooled in blocking fundamentals. Leaned on as vital part of the run blocking unit. Initial hand placement is good. Ability to sustain and finish. Improves positioning after contact and can generate some movement at point of attack without a double team. Gave it to USC’s Rasheem Green on more than a couple of snaps when matched head to head.

Statistically Schultz has not been a big feature. Stanford have long been a run-heavy team and if anything that has increased since the Andrew Luck days. Schultz’s main responsibility is to block. I don’t think you can read too much into his paltry 555 receiving yards and five touchdowns in three seasons. He’s done what he’s been asked to do.

It could actually work in Seattle’s favour. While the rest of the league is looking for big slot receivers acting as tight ends, we know the Seahawks want to play a more classical style. They drafted Nick Vannett in round three. They might be able to land Schultz in a similar range.

There are solutions in this draft class for the Seahawks. A long list of running backs. A similarly long list of interior lineman. Now two good tight ends that excel at blocking. If ever there was a year to try and fix the running game, the 2018 draft could provide a jump start.

Here’s another video highlighting some of Schultz’s talents as a receiver/blocker:

— One other name to perhaps keep an eye on is Texas Tech receiver Keke Coutee. This isn’t a particularly exciting draft in terms of legit first round talent — but there are plenty of intriguing names for the middle and later rounds. Coutee could be one of those gems where a few years down the line, you wonder how he lasted as long as he did. Take a look:

Finally — if you missed it yesterday I was invited onto the Tasteful Profanity podcast. Have a listen using the box below:

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2018 Running backs in review

When I put together an updated top-50 a few weeks ago, eight running backs were included:

Saquon Barkley (Penn State)
Ronald Jones II (USC)
Kerryon Johnson (Auburn)
Nick Chubb (Georgia)
Sony Michel (Georgia)
Derrius Guice (RB, LSU)
Royce Freeman (Oregon)
Rashaad Penny (San Diego State)

It’s a strong class. There will be some depth heading into day three but the best of the talent will go quickly. It’s possible all of the names above could go in the top-75 if not the first two rounds.

We’ve already featured several of these players in greater detail but I wanted to offer some short-form reviews for each, discussing their suitability in Seattle:

Saquon Barkley (Penn State)

Pro’s: Perfect modern day running back. Barkley is a swiss army knife and provides so many options. A defense has to be constantly alert to where he is on the field. Whenever he has the ball he’s a threat to score. Has the size of a power back (5-11, 228) but the skills of an Alvin Kamara. He could get Andrew Luck grades. Big, explosive, fantastic character. Amazing talent and as good as advertised.

Con’s: Looks really quick on the field but it’ll be a surprise if he runs the 4.3 times he reportedly manages at Penn State. He only ran a 4.63 at the SPARQ combine. The media will over analyse his forty time but he’s more explosive than fast — and that’s more important for a RB anyway. Expect a +40 inch vertical (he topped 38 inches in High School and he’s more explosive now).

Pro-comparisons: Barry Sanders, Ezekiel Elliott

Fit in Seattle: He’d be perfect but he’s going to go in the top-five if not #1 overall. So it’s not happening.

Predicted draft range: Top-five lock

Ronald Jones II (USC)

Pro’s: He’s Jamaal Charles 2.0. The two players are stunningly similar and look almost identical in terms of body type, competitiveness, athleticism and playing style. Despite only being around 6-0 and 203lbs, Jones II is incredibly tough and finishes runs. He has a sensational ability to avoid pressure in the backfield, work through traffic, cut and accelerate. In the open field he’s as exciting as any player in college football. A star in the making and a legit first round talent.

Con’s: You’d think he’d be great in the passing game given his skill set but he barely got involved at USC. It’s unclear why. There’s no evidence of any development in pass protection. He isn’t 225lbs so you might need to manage his workload.

Fit in Seattle: In terms of drafting history under Carroll/Schneider, they’ve consistently gone after backs that are approximately 210-225lbs. Jones II is smaller but he also looks like a phenomenal talent capable of genuine stardom. Put him next to a bigger back (Chris Carson? Carlos Hyde?) and you might have your answer to Ingram & Kamara. He looks special and the Seahawks love tilt-the-room types.

Pro-comparison: Jamaal Charles

Predicted draft range: First round, possibly top-20

Kerryon Johnson (Auburn)

Pro’s: It’s easily forgotten but for two weeks Auburn looked like the team to beat in college football. They absolutely destroyed Georgia and then beat Alabama convincingly. Johnson and a ferocious defense were the reason. He’s well sized (6-0, 212) with a similar body type and playing style to Chris Carson. He’s incredibly patient in the backfield and has drawn legitimate comparisons to Le’Veon Bell. Plays with toughness, he’s an asset in the passing game and has been a workhorse for Auburn.

Con’s: Johnson has a very upright running style and it’s problematic. He’s not squatty, plays tall and has been a walking target for big hits. Ronnie Harrison absolutely hammered him in the Iron Bowl and essentially prevented him from being anywhere near 100% in the SEC Championship. Does a good job falling forward but not the most elusive when backed into a corner.

Fit in Seattle: Considering how high they were on Carson, it stands to reason they’ll like Johnson too. They share some striking similarities. He matches up with their size ideal, he’s carried an offense and he’s tough. Do they want another back like Carson, however?

Pro-comparisons: Chris Carson, Le’Veon Bell

Predicted draft range: First or second round

Nick Chubb (RB, Georgia)

Pro’s: Incredibly tough running back who plays with a chip on his shoulder. Perfect size (5-11, 228) and capable of setting the tone. Classic north/south runner but doesn’t get enough credit for his ability to find space and make things happen. Not just an up-the-gut runner. Surprising speed when he gets going. Pre-injury he was one of the best athletes to ever test at the Nike SPARQ combine (143.91) and if he’s back to that level, watch out. He ran a 4.47 and managed a 41-inch vertical. Can force opponents to commit to defending the inside run.

Con’s: The injury was career threatening and in 2016 he didn’t look quite the same player. By 2017 he regained some of the explosive physicality and hopefully he’ll keep getting stronger with time. He rushed back in 2016 and lost a significant amount of weight in recovery. Not a multi-dimensional back you want to feature in the passing game. He’ll likely need to be paired with a more versatile compadre.

Fit in Seattle: They love tough, physical, gritty backs that have battled adversity. He’s a no-nonsense, 24/7 football man with a laser focus. He fits their size ideal and he’s as explosive as they like. If he’s physically back to his best and passes all the combine medical checks, he could be their guy. They also like to seek value and if Chubb drops because of the injury history, it possibly works into their favour.

Pro-comparisons: Jonathan Stewart, Frank Gore, Mark Ingram

Predicted draft range: If he tests well, rounds 1-2

Sony Michel (Georgia)

Pro’s: Really came on in 2017 and found a consistent role within the offense. Extremely high character and good size (5-10, 220). Plays like a much lighter runner but is bigger and sturdier than you think. Incredible footwork and balance and finds improbable ways to dodge defenders on the perimeter and break off big gains. Only needs an opening to make a long run and can be a home-run hitter. Better working outside than inside.

Con’s: Despite his size, Michel isn’t a particularly impressive inside runner and isn’t likely to get many short-yardage carries. Not the passing game dynamo you might expect — he only had nine (!!!) catches for 96 yards in 2017. Ran a similar forty time to Nick Chubb at the Nike combine (4.46) but wasn’t as explosive (his 30.5 inch vertical was 10.5 inches weaker than Chubb’s). Not as elusive as you might expect.

Fit in Seattle: The combine will be important. He has the size they like but they value explosive traits over speed. He’ll need to do better in the vertical jump. Is he more of a compliment than a feature runner?

Pro-comparisons: Knowshon Moreno, Maurice Morris

Predicted draft range: Round 2

Derrius Guice (LSU)

Pro’s: Guice runs with his hair on fire. He’s tough, leaves his mark on the field and competes. He’s difficult to bring down and builds as the game goes on. Capable of breaking off long runs and taking a high number of carries. Did a good job spotting Leonard Fournette in 2016 when he was fully healthy and at times looked like he was destined for big things. Not overly active in the passing game but showed some potential.

Con’s: 2017 season was, in fairness, a disappointment. He was banged up but also showed some limitations. Guice isn’t a great athlete and his success is born out of sheer determination. Forget the spurious ‘reports’ suggesting he’s been running in the low 4.4’s. He ran a 4.61 at the Nike combine, managed an appalling 4.66 short shuttle and only a 30-inch vertical. He’s not a bad player, far from it, but he has limited physical potential. Guice had a tough upbringing and it’s something teams will spend time on.

Fit in Seattle: There’ll come a point in the draft where Guice could present great value. He’s intense, physical and tough. If he drifts into the second or even the early third — the athletic limitations are less of a problem. You take him and feel happy about it. The Seahawks could love his attitude to running the ball and he’s very similar to Thomas Rawls in personality and size. He likely won’t be an explosive tester though.

Pro-comparisons: Thomas Rawls

Predicted draft range: Round 2

Royce Freeman (Oregon)

Pro’s: Beauty is in the eye of the beholder and some teams are going to really like what Freeman offers. Of all the running backs in this draft, he might get the broadest variety of grades. For a bigger back (5-11 ½, 234) he can really shift. If he gets an opening he can turn a good run into a great one and has shown the ability to get outside. Has the frame to be an early-down back and has been ultra-productive even during Oregon’s recent down-period.

Con’s: Doesn’t play to his size and you’re often left wanting more. He’s good — but you’d love to see a little more punishment dished out. He’s the opposite of Kerryon Johnson who always seems to find a way to fall forward. Freeman isn’t the best cut-back runner and will fit some schemes better than others. Will need to work on his effectiveness in the passing game.

Fit in Seattle: The Seahawks might be one of the teams who aren’t overly enamoured by Freeman. He isn’t going to help them set a tone up front and he isn’t a cut-back runner. He’s bigger than the backs they’ve drafted so far and might not be the most explosive tester (34 inch vertical at the Nike combine).

Pro-comparisons: D’Onta Foreman, Jordan Howard

Predicted draft range: Round 2

Rashaad Penny (San Diego State)

Pro’s: Good size (5-11, 220lbs) and incredibly versatile. Exciting player. Penny runs hard but with control and skill. He’s shifty enough to make people miss and if you give him a lane he’ll capitalise. Highly productive kick returner. Showed his potential at the Senior Bowl by having a relatively quiet practise week and then went about making big plays in the game. Has shown patience in the backfield. Exceptional production.

Con’s: It’s hard to imagine a middle ground with Penny. It feels like he’s either going to come into the league and be the next Kareem Hunt or he’s going to be overwhelmed. It’s hard to pick holes in his play but there’s something preventing you going all-in. Competition was weak in college and it shows on tape. Pass-pro needs serious work. Was a bit disappointing during the catching drills in Mobile which was a surprise.

Fit in Seattle: He fits the size ideal. The combine is important. They like explosive athletes at running back. How he tests in the vertical and broad jumps could be the determining factor on whether he truly fits.

Pro-comparisons: Jay Ajayi

Predicted draft range: Round 2

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Nike SPARQ data for the 2018 draft class

If you’re not familiar with SPARQ here’s a simple breakdown courtesy of Top End Sports:

SPARQ is an acronym for Speed, Power, Agility, Reaction and Quickness. The SPARQ Rating is a scoring system designed to measure sport-specific athleticism. The results from various tests in each of the areas of speed, power, agility, reaction and quickness are combined and weighted using a sport specific formula.

Every year Nike hold a SPARQ combine and the top high school athletes are invited to take part. If you know where to look there’s plenty of data involving many of the big names making up the 2018 draft class.

Even though their testing results could easily be different at the NFL combine — it’s still a useful benchmark for what we can expect in Indianapolis.

I had to search numerous websites for this info. Many prospects either didn’t participate or chose not to reveal their results. You’ll notice there’s no mention of Bradley Chubb, Vita Vea or Tremaine Edmunds.

Here are the SPARQ scores I did find:

Malik Jefferson (LB, Texas) — 145.65
Nick Chubb (RB, Georgia) — 143.91
Josh Sweat (EDGE, Florida State) — 140.01
Minkah Fitzpatrick (S, Alabama) — 130.41
Lorenzo Carter (LB, Georgia) — 129.75
Christian Kirk (WR, Texas A&M) — 129.30
Derwin James (S, Florida State) — 124.35
Royce Freeman (RB, Oregon) — 121.17
Saquon Barkley (RB, Penn State) — 116.79
Quin Blanding (S, Virginia) — 115.95
Rashaan Evans (LB, Alabama) — 113.7
M.J. Stewart (CB, North Carolina) — 112.08
Jerome Baker (LB, Ohio State) — 106.35
Kevin Toliver (CB, LSU) — 99.03
Roquon Smith (LB, Georgia) — 97.20
Josh Rosen (QB, UCLA) — 96.90
Armani Watts (S, Texas A&M) — 96.51
Calvin Ridley (WR, Alabama) — 92.70
Tavarus McFadden (CB, Florida State) — 91.86
Quenton Nelson (G, Notre Dame) — 85.20
Da’Ron Payne (DT, Alabama) — 84.00
Derrius Guice (RB, LSU) — 83.37
Tim Settle (DT, Virginia Tech) — 73.17
Sam Darnold (QB, USC) — 71.25
Derrick Nnadi (DT, Florida State) — 70.14
Isaiah Wynn (T, Georgia) — 54.45

Running backs Damien Harris (126.93) and Bryce Love (122.43) didn’t declare. Bo Scarborough, Sony Michel and Braden Smith didn’t complete a full test to qualify for a score.

I’ve listed the testing information in full below. There’s some very interesting data. Here are some of the highlights:

— Malik Jefferson’s sensational 145.65 SPARQ score is mostly down to a 4.39 forty and a 40 inch vertical at 6-2, 215lbs. If he gets close to these marks at the combine, he’ll be one of the big winners.

— We’ve often discussed Nick Chubb’s incredible SPARQ performance. The key to his stock will be medical checks on his knee and whether he’s still capable of an elite workout. If he ticks both boxes he could easily be a high pick.

— Chubb’s Georgia team mate Sony Michel isn’t quite as explosive. He was reasonably quick with a 4.46 forty but he only managed a 30.5 inch vertical — that’s a 10.5 inch difference compared to Chubb’s attempt.

— Minkah Fitzpatrick, Derwin James and Christian Kirk completed SPARQ tests in 2013 and 2014. The data I’d been using for Fitzpatrick and James was from 2013. They both significantly improved their scores the following year.

— Roquon Smith plays fast with great intensity but he only managed a 4.55 forty at 203lbs here. His SPARQ score of 97.20 is well below the likes of Lorenzo Carter, Rashaan Evans and Jerome Baker. It’s something to keep an eye on at the combine. He’s really good — but a mediocre combine would hamper his stock. Teams want speed at linebacker these days.

— Calvin Ridley is a very consistent receiver. Physically, however, he’s unspectacular. He isn’t big or particularly fast and at the SPARQ combine he ran a 4.54 at just 169lbs with a 32 inch vertical. It’s hard to get excited about Ridley.

— Quenton Nelson and Da’Ron Payne weighed a combined 650lbs at the SPARQ combine. They both scored higher than Derrius Guice.

— Braden Smith is known as an explosive, athletic freak at Auburn. He managed a 35.5 inch vertical at 285lbs. Providing he tests at the combine, he’s going to put on a show.

Full breakdown

Malik Jefferson (LB, Texas)
Height: 6-2
Weight: 215lbs
Forty: 4.39
Short Shuttle: 4.19
Powerball: 42
Vertical: 40
SPARQ: 145.65

Nick Chubb (RB, Georgia)
Height: 5-11
Weight: 217lbs
Forty: 4.47
Short Shuttle: 4.12
Powerball: 43
Vertical: 41
SPARQ: 143.91

Josh Sweat (EDGE, Florida State)
Height: 6-4
Weight: 240lbs
Forty: 4.46
Short Shuttle: 4.25
Powerball: 42
Vertical: 39
SPARQ: 140.01

Minkah Fitzpatrick (S, Alabama) (2014)
Height: 6-1
Weight: 194lbs
Forty: 4.51
Short Shuttle: 3.81
Powerball: 39.5
Vertical: 36
SPARQ: 130.41

Minkah Fitzpatrick (S, Alabama) (2013)
Height: 6-0
Weight: 183lbs
Forty: 4.67
Short Shuttle: 4.05
Powerball: 34
Vertical: 37
SPARQ: 106.26

Lorenzo Carter (LB, Georgia)
Height: 6-5
Weight: 234lbs
Forty: 4.63
Short Shuttle: 4.32
Powerball: 41.5
Vertical: 40
SPARQ: 129.75

Christian Kirk (WR, Texas A&M) (2014)
Height: 5-10
Weight: 191lbs
Forty: 4.47
Short Shuttle: 4.25
Powerball: 41.5
Vertical: 39
SPARQ: 129.30

Christian Kirk (WR, Texas A&M) (2013)
Height: 5-10
Weight: 185lbs
Forty: 4.49
Short Shuttle: 4.15
Powerball: 38
Vertical: 36
SPARQ: 115.83

Derwin James (S, Florida State) (2014)
Height: 6-2
Weight: 200lbs
Forty: 4.50
Short Shuttle: 4.21
Powerball: 41
Vertical: 36
SPARQ: 124.35

Derwin James (S, Florida State) (2013)
Height: 6-2
Weight: 197lbs
Forty: 4.52
Short Shuttle: 4.32
Powerball: 38
Vertical: 35
SPARQ: 108.57

Royce Freeman (RB, Oregon)
Height: 6-0
Weight: 227lbs
Forty: 4.58
Short Shuttle: 4.07
Powerball: 39
Vertical: 34
SPARQ: 121.17

Saquon Barkley (RB, Penn State)
Height: 5-11
Weight: 208lbs
Forty: 4.63
Short Shuttle: 4.06
Powerball: 35
Vertical: 38
SPARQ: 116.79

Quin Blanding (S, Virginia)
Height: 6-2
Weight: 209lbs
Forty: 4.62
Short Shuttle: 4.18
Powerball: 38
Vertical: 37
SPARQ: 115.95

Rashaan Evans (LB, Alabama)
Height: 6-3
Weight: 217lbs
Forty: 4.51
Short Shuttle: 4.27
Powerball: 33
Vertical: 38.4
SPARQ: 113.7

M.J. Stewart (CB, North Carolina)
Height: 5-11
Weight: 190lbs
Forty: 4.57
Short Shuttle: 4.00
Powerball: 36
Vertical: 34
SPARQ: 112.08

Jerome Baker (LB, Ohio State)
Height: 6-1
Weight: 202lbs
Forty: 4.54
Short Shuttle: 4.09
Powerball: 35.5
Vertical: 34
SPARQ: 106.35

Kevin Toliver (CB, LSU)
Height: 6-1
Weight: 193lbs
Forty: 4.61
Short Shuttle: 4.25
Powerball: 32
Vertical: 37
SPARQ: 99.03

Roquon Smith (LB, Georgia)
Height: 6-1
Weight: 203lbs
Forty: 4.55
Short Shuttle: 4.29
Powerball: 31
Vertical: 35
SPARQ: 97.20

Josh Rosen (QB, UCLA)
Height: 6-3
Weight: 206lbs
Forty: 4.99
Short Shuttle: 4.25
Powerball: 40
Vertical: 32
SPARQ: 96.90

Armani Watts (S, Texas A&M)
Height: 5-11
Weight: 183lbs
Forty: 4.76
Short Shuttle: 4.07
Powerball: 33
Vertical: 35
SPARQ: 96.51

Calvin Ridley (WR, Alabama)
Height: 6-0
Weight: 169lbs
Forty: 4.54
Short Shuttle: 4.15
Powerball: 32
Vertical: 32
SPARQ: 92.70

Tavarus McFadden (CB, Florida State)
Height: 6-2
Weight: 198lbs
Forty: 4.60
Short Shuttle: 4.34
Powerball: 33.5
Vertical: 32
SPARQ: 91.86

Quenton Nelson (G, Notre Dame)
Height: 6-5
Weight: 302lbs
Forty: 5.64
Short Shuttle: 4.81
Powerball: 42.5
Vertical: 24
SPARQ: 85.2

Da’Ron Payne (DT, Alabama)
Height: 6-3
Weight: 348lbs
Forty: 5.24
Short Shuttle: 4.80
Powerball: 37.5
Vertical: 25
SPARQ: 84.0

Derrius Guice (RB, LSU)
Height: 5-11
Weight: 215lbs
Forty: 4.61
Short Shuttle: 4.66
Powerball: 35
Vertical: 30
SPARQ: 83.37

Tim Settle (DT, Virginia Tech)
Height: 6-2
Weight: 339lbs
Forty: 5.35
Short Shuttle: 5.06
Powerball: 31.5
Vertical: 24
SPARQ: 73.17

Sam Darnold (QB, USC)
Height: 6-3
Weight: 202lbs
Forty: 4.96
Short Shuttle: 4.47
Powerball: 35
Vertical: 27
SPARQ: 71.25

Derrick Nnadi (DT, Florida State)
Height: 6-1
Weight: 299lbs
Forty: 5.53
Short Shuttle: 5.06
Powerball: 34
Vertical: 26
SPARQ: 70.14

Isaiah Wynn (T, Georgia)
Height: 6-2
Weight: 274lbs
Forty: 5.30
Short Shuttle: 5.06
Powerball: 32
Vertical: 27
SPARQ: 54.45

Bo Scarborough (RB, Alabama)
Height: 6-2
Weight: 215lbs
Forty: 4.59
Short Shuttle: 4.09
Powerball: DNP
Vertical: 31
SPARQ: Incomplete

Sony Michel (RB, Georgia)
Height: 5-11
Weight: 194lbs
Forty: 4.46
Short Shuttle: 4.22
Powerball: DNP
Vertical: 30.5
SPARQ: Incomplete

Braden Smith (G, Auburn)
Height: 6-6
Weight: 285lbs
Forty: 5.12
Short Shuttle: 4.65
Powerball: DNP
Vertical: 35.5
SPARQ: Incomplete

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Legit first round grades & an updated top-50

In a good class you might have 20 players graded in the first round.

I think it’ll be a lot less this year.

It’s still very early in the process and the Senior Bowl and combine will change things dramatically. We’ll come back to this list down the road and see how things have shifted. For now though, here are the players I think are worthy of first round grades:

Saquon Barkley (RB, Penn State)
Quenton Nelson (G, Notre Dame)
Tremaine Edmunds (LB, Virginia Tech)
Bradley Chubb (EDGE, NC State)
Sam Darnold (QB, USC)
Josh Rosen (QB, UCLA)
Vita Vea (DT, Washington)
Billy Price (C, Ohio State)
Ronald Jones II (RB, USC)
Tim Settle (DT, Virginia Tech)
Marcus Davenport (DE, UTSA)

11 players.

A lot of people will have Minkah Fitzpatrick and Derwin James listed as legit first rounders. I think they are both a bit overrated. Roquan Smith seriously warrants consideration but he’s only 6-0 and 225lbs. Quarterback needy teams might have Josh Allen or Baker Mayfield listed.

For me though, these are the eleven I think are genuinely worth a first round grade.

Barkley, Nelson, Chubb, Darnold and Rosen will appear on many similar lists so I want to concentrate on the other six.

Tremaine Edmunds (LB, Virginia Tech) — he’s just an incredible talent. Edmunds can play inside linebacker, outside linebacker, LEO, he can rush. You can ask him to do so many jobs. He’ll appear from nowhere to blow up a screen or sweep, he’ll chase down the ball carrier and make a secure tackle in space, force turnovers with jarring hits and he’s always in control. He has great size (6-4, 235lbs) and length. Expect a great workout at the combine and a very, very high grade among scouts. For more on Tremaine Edmunds click here.

Vita Vea (DT, Washington) — there are plenty of mixed opinions on Vea but you have to watch him live to appreciate his talent. He’s 6-4 and 340lbs but he moves around the field with incredible mobility. You expect him to be powerful and capable of controlling the LOS with his size. He does that very well. Yet it’s his ability to play across the line, sprint to the ball carrier and move with unnatural ease that makes him one of those rare nose tackle prospects who go early in the draft. He could be Haloti Ngata.

Billy Price (C, Ohio State) — Price is pretty much the complete package. He plays the way you want your offensive linemen to play — with great intensity and a nasty edge. He sets the tone up front. He combines athleticism and power with strength and physical toughness. He plays like a third Pouncey brother. Urban Meyer absolutely raves about him, crediting Price with a stirring motivational speech to kick start Ohio State’s season after their big loss at Iowa. Plus he’s smart, intelligent and knows what he wants in life. He used the 2017 season to set himself a challenge of becoming a first round pick. He will go early.

Ronald Jones II (RB, USC) — apparently he only received a second round grade from the draft committee but I think he’s special. The comparisons to Jamaal Charles are legit — absolutely legit. So how can I not name him here? He dodges tackles and cuts his way through traffic like a slalom skier. He has the burst, suddenness and acceleration to explode to the second level and capitalise on an opening. Most of all though, he finishes every single run. He’s tough. He’ll need to show he can pass protect but he has star quality. For more on Ronald Jones II click here.

Tim Settle (DT, Virginia Tech) — it’s surprising to see Settle receive so little hype, especially after he declared for the draft as a redshirt sophomore. You don’t see many players do that, especially not 6-3, 328lbs defensive tackles. There’s a reason though. Settle has the size to play nose but the quickness, get-off and pass rush ability to be so much more. He had 12.5 TFL’s in 2017. That’s incredible for a 328lber. In comparison, Vita Vea had 5.5 TFL’s and Da’Ron Payne 1.0. The scary thing is he could stand to lose a little weight and be even better. For more on Tim Settle click here.

Marcus Davenport (DE, UTSA) — watching his tape he looks special. At first you wonder about the competition level and then you see him do it to every opponent and you have to buy in. He’s about 6-5 or 6-6 and around 254lbs. At times you feel like you’re watching DeMarcus Ware. He has a violent bull rush, he explodes off the edge and dominates the tackle. He can hold off offensive linemen with one arm and he has the quickness to win with speed. He’ll chase down a ball carrier and finish consistently. He has a big opportunity to impress at the Senior Bowl and prove the hype is warranted. If he succeeds — he could be a top-15 lock. For more on Marcus Davenport click here.

This list could grow. At the moment this is how I see things. It looks like a draft where there will be around 10-15 legit first round grades. That’s my current estimate. There might be better value in round two than in the second half of round one.

Seeing as a number of high profile prospects have chosen not to declare for the draft (Clelin Ferrell, Christian Wilkins, Austin Bryant, Damien Harris, Bryce Love) I thought I’d also update my top-50:

Quarterbacks (5)

Sam Darnold (USC)
Josh Rosen (UCLA)
Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma)
Lamar Jackson (Louisville)
Josh Allen (Wyoming)

It’s possible all five could go in the first round.

Running backs (8)

Saquon Barkley (Penn State)
Ronald Jones II (USC)
Kerryon Johnson (Auburn)
Nick Chubb (Georgia)
Sony Michel (Georgia)
Royce Freeman (Oregon)
Rashaad Penny (San Diego State)
Derrius Guice (RB, LSU)

The group takes a hit with Damien Harris and Bryce Love opting not to turn pro. Still, this is a strong looking list with 3-4 potential stars.

Wide receiver (5)

Calvin Ridley (Alabama)
Courtland Sutton (SMU)
James Washington (Oklahoma State)
Anthony Miller (Memphis)
D.J. Moore (Maryland)

The depth at receiver is better than the early round talent. Ridley isn’t particularly big or fast but he gets open and he’s consistent. Sutton is a big bodied Alshon Jeffrey type. Washington could go in the 20-40 range.

Tight end (0)

As things stand, there’s a chance we won’t see a tight end go in the first two rounds of the draft. It’s almost certain there won’t be a first round tight end.

Offensive line (9)

Quenton Nelson (G, Notre Dame)
Billy Price (C/G, Ohio State)
Orlando Brown (T, Oklahoma)
Mike McGlinchey (T, Notre Dame)
Isaiah Wynn (G, Georgia)
Frank Ragnow (C, Arkansas)
Braden Smith (G, Auburn)
Will Hernandez (G, UTEP)
Coleman Shelton (C, Washington)

It’s a decent crop of interior linemen but a weak looking tackle class. Nelson could go in the top-10 and Price isn’t far behind. Brown and McGlinchey are expected to be first round tackles. The rest could go in the late first or second round.

Defensive line (10)

Bradley Chubb (DE, NC State)
Vita Vea (DT, Washington)
Tim Settle (DT, Virginia Tech)
Marcus Davenport (DE, UTSA)
Taven Bryan (DT, Florida)
Arden Key (DE, LSU)
Da’Ron Payne (DT, Alabama)
Derrick Nnadi (DT, Florida State)
Maurice Hurst (DT, Michigan)
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (DE, Oklahoma)

Clelin Ferrell could’ve been a top five pick. The Clemson trio staying in school is big news. There’s still a bit of everything here — speed, power, length, size.

Linebacker (7)

Tremaine Edmunds (Virginia Tech)
Roquan Smith (Georgia)
Leighton Vander Esch (Boise State)
Rashaan Evans (Alabama)
Lorenzo Carter (Georgia)
Keishawn Bierria (Washington)
Harold Landry (Boston College)

Edmunds is the outstanding linebacker prospect. Smith, Vander Esch, Evans and Carter are capable of going in the first frame.

Cornerback (3)

Denzel Ward (Ohio State)
Joshua Jackson (Iowa)
Anthony Averett (Alabama)

It’s not a good looking cornerback class. Iowa’s Joshua Jackson has major production this year with eight interceptions and a pair of touchdowns. He could sneak into the first round. Some think Ohio State’s Denzel Ward is the best corner in the draft and he’s expected to have a great combine. Averett is sparky and could be a useful slot corner.

Safety (3)

Minkah Fitzpatrick (Alabama)
Derwin James (Florida State)
Ronnie Harrison (Alabama)

The safety’s are a bit overrated but Fitzpatrick is likely a top-15 pick, James could go between 15-30 and Ronnie Harrison could be a second rounder.

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New mock draft & the benefit of trading down

Could the Seahawks move down and address two key needs?

Trade down or stay put.

We’ll be having this discussion a lot over the next three months.

Here are the two arguments:

1. Stay put

The Seahawks haven’t picked in the top-20 for six years. The intention should be to make this a rare one-off. Do they need to make the most of this opportunity? The last three players taken at #18 were Adoree’ Jackson, Ryan Kelly and Marcus Peters. This has been a sweet spot in the draft in recent years.

2. Trade down

With no picks in rounds two or three, the Seahawks are currently set to pick just once before day three. Without a massive amount of cap space, the draft is Seattle’s best opportunity to address several needs. There will be good depth on day two. They might be able to get two or even three players by moving down instead of just one.

Weighing up the options

There are cases to be made for both scenarios.

If the Seahawks had their second and third round picks, it’s a no-brainer. Play the draft board at #18 as you see fit. You’ll still have a chance to get two more good players.

Unfortunately they don’t have those picks — so they have to consider the bigger picture.

It doesn’t mean they can’t or won’t just take BPA at #18. It’s still possible. The problem is — with the likes of Clelin Ferrell and Drew Lock opting to stay at Clemson and Missouri respectively, the chances of a top player dropping to #18 are slimmer.

Tremaine Edmunds isn’t going to last to #18. He’s too good. Billy Price? Possible. Good interior linemen have lasted into that range before. Quenton Nelson will go in the top ten and it’ll be interesting to see how that impacts Price. If he falls to #18 they might have to consider taking him.

Why would trading down be attractive?

This draft class is particularly deep in three need areas:

1. Running back

2. Interior O-line

3. Defensive front seven

By trading down, you might be able to address two of these needs before the end of day two.

Let’s focus on the running game for a moment. Among our top-50 draft eligible players, here are the names included on the O-line and at running back:

Quenton Nelson (G, Notre Dame)
Billy Price (C/G, Ohio State)
Orlando Brown (T, Oklahoma)
Mike McGlinchey (T, Notre Dame)
Isaiah Wynn (G, Georgia)
Frank Ragnow (C, Arkansas)
Braden Smith (G, Auburn)
Will Hernandez (G, UTEP)
Coleman Shelton (C, Washington)

Saquon Barkley (Penn State)
Ronald Jones II (USC)
Kerryon Johnson (Auburn)
Nick Chubb (Georgia)
Royce Freeman (Oregon)
Rashaad Penny (San Diego State)
Sony Michel (Georgia)

(Bryce Love and Damien Harris aren’t included after they opted not to turn pro)

The names in bold, plus Derrius Guice, could be available in rounds 2-3.

So you’re faced with a situation. Let’s say Billy Price lasts to #18. You take him but miss out on the best players in this excellent running back class. Is that better than being able to get a pairing of Ronald Jones II and Frank Ragnow or Isaiah Wynn and Nick Chubb?

Here’s a mock draft that looks at a trade down scenario:

#1 Cleveland — Josh Allen (QB, Wyoming)
There have been reports that John Dorsey is a big fan of Allen’s. If the Browns make a deal for a veteran (eg Alex Smith) they might sit Allen for a year.

#2 NY Giants — Sam Darnold (QB, USC)
This could be either Darnold or Rosen but with Pat Shurmur expected to be the new Head Coach, Darnold’s mobility could give him the edge.

#3 Indianapolis — Saquon Barkley (RB, Penn State)
Barkley deserves to go this early. He could be the highest graded player to enter the league since, funnily enough, Andrew Luck.

#4 Cleveland (via Hou) — Bradley Chubb (EDGE, NC State)
The Browns pair Chubb with Myles Garrett to create a fearsome pass-rushing double act.

#5 Buffalo (via Denver) — Josh Rosen (QB, UCLA)
Armed with the #21 and #22 picks, the Bills trade ahead of their divisional rivals in New York to get Rosen.

#6 New York Jets — Quenton Nelson (G, Notre Dame)
With three quarterbacks off the board already, Mike Maccagnan falls back on taking the best player available.

#7 Tampa Bay — Vita Vea (DT, Washington)
Someone will take Vea early. He’s too big, too quick for his size and too powerful. He has a shot to be Haloti Ngata.

#8 Chicago — Marcus Davenport (DE, UTSA)
If they use free agency to improve at the receiver position, this will allow the Bears to take a top defensive prospect here.

#9 San Francisco — Tremaine Edmunds (LB, Virginia Tech)
Quite frankly a sensational prospect worthy of a place in the top-10. He can play inside linebacker, SAM, EDGE, LEO. An incredible talent and clearly one of the ten best players in this draft class.

#10 Oakland — Orlando Brown (T, Oklahoma)
Enormous prospect with NFL bloodlines and could solve a problem for the Raiders at right tackle.

#11 Miami — Billy Price (C, Ohio State)
Teams will love Price. His attitude, his physicality, his versatility. He’s a third Pouncey brother. A top end talent in this draft.

#12 Cincinnati — Minkah Fitzpatrick (S, Alabama)
Fitzpatrick is a bit overrated and it’ll be quite the thing if he goes earlier than Earl Thomas, Keanu Neal and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix.

#13 Washington — Roquan Smith (LB, Georgia)
The Redskins cling on to Kirk Cousins for another year and take the best defensive player on their board.

#14 Green Bay — Tim Settle (DT, Virginia Tech)
Underrated player who managed 12.5 TFL’s at 330lbs. That’s relatively unheard of and considerably more than Vita Vea (5.5) and Da’Ron Payne (1.0).

#15 Arizona — Mike McGlinchey (T, Notre Dame)
The tackle position has become a big problem for the Cardinals. McGlinchey is finesse but one of the best options in a weak OT class.

#16 Baltimore — Calvin Ridley (WR, Alabama)
Not an exciting player. Lacks size and not the most sudden. His interviews are a bit weird. He is consistent though and Baltimore loves ‘Bama.

#17 LA Chargers — Baker Mayfield (QB, Oklahoma)
The Chargers are reportedly looking to develop a player to be the heir apparent to Philip Rivers. Mayfield could be their guy. Rightly or wrongly, might last due to his height.

#18 Cleveland (via Sea) — Denzel Ward (CB, Ohio State)
John Dorsey trades up to secure the best cornerback in the draft.

#19 Dallas — Arden Key (DE, LSU)
Jerry Jones loves a splash and isn’t afraid to take a risk. Key has talent but will he ever put it together?

#20 Detroit — Leighton Vander Esch (LB, Boise State)
Matt Patricia begins his stint as Head Coach by drafting an on-field leader.

#21 Denver (via Buf) — Derwin James (S, Florida State)
The Broncos fill a big need here. Like Fitzpatrick, James is a little overrated. He looks the part and tackles well but he’s a box safety. More Eric Reid than Eric Berry.

#22 Denver (via Buf, KC) — Lamar Jackson (QB, Louisville)
The Broncos draft a quarterback capable of delivering some excitement back to Denver.

#23 LA Rams — Harold Landry (EDGE, Boston College)
He’s not physical enough to play DE so he has to go to the right scheme. Wade Phillips’ defense is a good fit.

#24 Carolina — Taven Bryan (DT, Florida)
Bryan could be used as an inside/out pass rusher for the Panthers. He has major upside.

#25 Tennessee — Joshua Jackson (CB, Iowa)
Despite drafting Adoree’ Jackson a year ago, the Titans still need more in their secondary. Jackson’s combine will determine if he goes this early.

#26 Atlanta — Maurice Hurst (DT, Michigan)
Hurst can rush the passer from the interior and these types of players always have value.

#27 New Orleans — Lorenzo Carter (LB, Georgia)
Carter has explosive qualities and finds a way to impact games. Capable of playing SAM/LEO or OLB.

#28 Pittsburgh — Da’Ron Payne (DT, Alabama)
Payne just looks like an ideal fit for the AFC North. Arguably the best run defender in the draft.

#29 Jacksonville — Courtland Sutton (WR, SMU)
If they lose Allen Robinson they might look for a big receiver to replace him on the outside.

#30 Minnesota — Derrick Nnadi (DT, Florida State)
Nnadi played better in 2016 but he’s still a disruptive nose capable of providing some pass rush.

#31 New England — Ben Banogu (DE, TCU)
He just feels like the type of unheralded defensive prospect the Patriots take in the late first round.

#32 Philadelphia — Rashaan Evans (LB, Alabama)
Evans doesn’t just tackle and hit, he hammers people. The combine will be big for his stock.

Trade breakdown

— Buffalo trades #21 & #22 to Denver for #5 and a sixth round pick

— Cleveland trades #33, #63 and a fifth rounder to Seattle for #18

Trade notes

It feels like the Bills are setting up for a big move. With the #21 and #22 picks, they have the stock needed to climb into the top-10.

The Browns have two first round picks and three second round picks currently. Trading back into the top-20 would give them three top-tier picks and an opportunity to pick again at #35.

John Schneider and John Dorsey know each other very well, so it’s plausible they could work together on a trade.

So what would the Seahawks do if they did end up with #33 and #63?

Simple — repair the running game or take one player for each side of the ball.

For example, if Georgia’s Lorenzo Carter lasted into round two — could he be an option to fill the Bruce Irvin role at SAM/LEO? Would they have any interest in Oklahoma’s Ogbonnia Okoronkwo? The Senior Bowl and combine will reveal more about possible defensive options.

If they wanted to focus on offense, they could go running back and O-line. That could mean considering Georgia’s brilliant Isaiah Wynn to play guard with their first pick and then assessing the running back options at #63. Would Nick Chubb, Rashaad Penny or Royce Freeman be there in the late second? Possibly.

In 2016 they used a fourth round pick to move up seven spots to select Jarran Reed. A similar deal in this scenario could secure the running back they want. If the Browns give Seattle their fifth round pick as part of a trade, that could also be used.

Alternatively they could take a running back at #33. In this scenario Ronald Jones II, Kerryon Johnson, Nick Chubb, Sony Michel, Derrius Guice and others are available. They might even move down again, as they did a year ago before selecting Malik McDowell.

With a running back secured, they can wait to see which interior offensive linemen are left at the end of round two. Frank Ragnow (Arkansas), Braden Smith (Auburn), Will Hernandez (UTEP) or Coleman Shelton (Washington) could be options.

The late second could be another trade-down spot — and that could bring receiver, tight end and several defensive positions into play too.

When you look at it like this, trading down is a reasonable option. You’re moving into the heart of the value zone for Seattle’s key positions of need. And you’re giving yourself a chance to acquire more picks to help repair the running game and aid the transition to a younger (and cheaper) defense.

Mock draft in full

#1 Cleveland — Josh Allen (QB, Wyoming)
#2 NY Giants — Sam Darnold (QB, USC)
#3 Indianapolis — Saquon Barkley (RB, Penn State)
#4 Cleveland (via Hou) — Bradley Chubb (EDGE, NC State)
#5 Buffalo (via Den) — Josh Rosen (QB, UCLA)
#6 New York Jets — Quenton Nelson (G, Notre Dame)
#7 Tampa Bay — Vita Vea (DT, Washington)
#8 Chicago — Marcus Davenport (DE, UTSA)
#9 San Francisco — Tremaine Edmunds (LB, Virginia Tech)
#10 Oakland — Orlando Brown (T, Oklahoma)
#11 Miami — Billy Price (C, Ohio State)
#12 Cincinnati — Minkah Fitzpatrick (S, Alabama)
#13 Washington — Roquan Smith (LB, Georgia)
#14 Green Bay — Tim Settle (DT, Virginia Tech)
#15 Arizona — Mike McGlinchey (T, Notre Dame)
#16 Baltimore — Calvin Ridley (WR, Alabama)
#17 LA Chargers — Baker Mayfield (QB, Oklahoma)
#18 Cleveland (via Sea) — Denzel Ward (CB, Ohio State)
#19 Dallas — Arden Key (DE, LSU)
#20 Detroit — Leighton Vander Esch (LB, Boise State)
#21 Denver (via Buf) — Derwin James (S, Florida State)
#22 Denver (via Buf, KC) — Lamar Jackson (QB, Louisville)
#23 LA Rams — Harold Landry (EDGE, Boston College)
#24 Carolina — Taven Bryan (DT, Florida)
#25 Tennessee — Joshua Jackson (CB, Iowa)
#26 Atlanta — Maurice Hurst (DT, Michigan)
#27 New Orleans — Lorenzo Carter (LB, Georgia)
#28 Pittsburgh — Da’Ron Payne (DT, Alabama)
#29 Jacksonville — Courtland Sutton (WR, SMU)
#30 Minnesota — Derrick Nnadi (DT, Florida State)
#31 New England — Ben Banogu (EDGE, TCU)
#32 Philadelphia — Rashaan Evans (LB, Alabama)

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Why the defense has to be younger & Jones II = Charles

Why Seattle’s defense needs to get younger (and cheaper)

In 2017 the Seahawks spent $93,714,666 on their defense, more than any team in the NFL. The split between offense and defense was 36.37% vs 55.98%.

They spent $60,885,063 on the offense — 29th highest in the league.

Of the 12 biggest cap hits on the roster, nine were defensive players. The three offensive players were Russell Wilson, Jimmy Graham and Luke Joeckel. Graham and Joeckel are both free agents.

At the moment they’re facing a very similar situation for 2018. They’re set to pay $91,613,442 for their defense (#5 in the NFL) and $62,541,747 for the offense (#24).

These numbers will change if/when Jeremy Lane is cut, Cliff Avril and Kam Chancellor retire and if some other moves are made. Even so, this could be one of the reasons why a transition is expected. The percentage needs to be nearer 50-50 than the current 56-36.

It’s going to be difficult to redress the balance in 2018 alone, which is one of the reasons they might initiate a transition now. For example, they won’t save much by cutting Michael Bennett (around $3m). However, his cap hit for 2019 (around $9m) would be completely off the books.

It would put pressure on the team to find some cheap replacements. However, pass rushers have been their speciality. They brought in Bennett and Cliff Avril at bargain prices, pulled off a killer trade for Chris Clemons, found Frank Clark with a late second round pick and have identified an exciting reclamation project with Dion Jordan.

It’s not often you see a team paying so many big name players on one side of the ball. The Seahawks did it because they had so much talent. Keeping the defense together felt like the key to multiple opportunities to win a Super Bowl. As those days fade, the need to change is clear.

Part of being younger on defense is also about being a cheaper.

The imbalance in spending isn’t the only reason why Seattle’s offense hasn’t performed. There was still enough talent to expect better results in 2017. However, if you actually write down the number of defensive studs vs offensive studs on Seattle’s roster, it’s quite significantly weighted in one direction. If you want a balanced team, you might need a more balanced spread of talent.

After cuts and possible retirements the Seahawks could be left with around $30m in cap space. It depends how aggressive they want to be. A portion of that would be required to fill out the roster (they carried a lot of players on one-year contracts in 2017). They’d also ideally retain players like Bradley McDougald and Sheldon Richardson. McDougald is the easier keep but I wonder if a statistically poor year for Richardson leads to a colder market than currently expected? Perhaps he’d be willing to return on a one-year deal to improve his stock in 12 months?

If there is the money to spend, it could come on offense. Value deals, possibly short term, appear likely to fill out the roster (with the hope of finding some longer term parts for the next core).

Green Bay want John Schneider

Multiple reports today are suggesting the Packers are interested in making John Schneider their new GM. Some have even suggested, not surprisingly, that Schneider is very interested in the Green Bay job. There’s not really much to say on this other than whatever happens, let’s hope it happens as soon as possible. This is a big off-season for the Seahawks. They need to know where they stand.

Proof Ronald Jones II is Jamaal Charles

Ask most Seahawks fans what they want in a running back and they’ll say tough, physical and someone who gets the hard yards. Many will have watched Nick Chubb against Oklahoma last week and salivated at the thought of him trying to fill the RB void in Seattle.

Clearly the Seahawks have a preference too. It’s worth highlighting again that this team has a type at running back. These are the backs they’ve drafted in recent years:

Robert Turbin — 5-10, 222lbs
Spencer Ware — 5-10, 228lbs
Christine Michael — 5-10, 220lbs
C.J. Prosise — 6-0, 220lbs
Alex Collins — 5-10, 217lbs
Chris Carson — 6-0, 218lbs

Size matters to this team, as does explosive traits. A strong vertical (+35 inches) and broad jump (10-5) has also been a factor. Speed? Not as much.

Chubb, Damien Harris, Kerryon Johnson, Rashaad Penny and others will fit into Seattle’s size prototype. Ronald Jones II probably won’t. He’s expected to be measured at about 6-0 and 203lbs.

The thing is, he is pretty much a Jamaal Charles clone. Charles was one of the more dynamic players in the NFL in recent history, at any position.

Watch the videos below. One is Jones II running for USC, the other is Charles running for Texas. It’s freaky how similar they are:

Jones II, like Charles, is just so dynamic. And despite neither player being 220lbs they get as much as they can out of most runs.

He might not be an aggressive north-south runner with prototype size but if any team believes Jones II can be as good as Charles, that has to be worth an early pick.

He just has ‘it’. He looks like a dynamic playmaker for the next level. Someone capable of making big plays on a consistent basis.

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