Time for this weeks mock. And before we start, read this. It’ll explain why Manti Te’o isn’t included. If you’ve missed the news, it’s probably the weirdest story you’ll ever read about a Heisman finalist. Or any football player. Ever.
We now know the Seahawks will pick 25th overall. We also know Pete Carroll wants to improve the pass rush. Interestingly, John Schneider appeared on ESPN 710 this morning and chipped in with some thoughts of his own. We’ll go into this in more detail tomorrow, but here are the highlights:
- Schneider mentioned it was a superior group of receivers compared to last years draft
- He talked up the offensive line talent at the top of the first round
- He also mentioned that there were some ‘unique’ defensive lineman available
- Schneider says he finds the crop of junior linebackers ‘impressive’
Like I said, we’ll go into this more tomorrow. I did find the receiver comment interesting given the team avoided the position last year. Depending on how the board shapes up, I think we’ll see a pass catcher taken within the first 2-3 rounds.
He’s absolutely right to talk up the offensive line talent. Luke Joeckel, Eric Fisher, Chance Warmack and Jonathan Cooper could all be top-15 picks. It could’ve been an even better class had the likes of Jake Matthews and Taylor Lewan declared.
The word ‘unique’ intrigues me when he refers to the pass rushers. The Seahawks have drafted ‘unique’ players before. Could he be referring to guys like Margus Hunt, Ezekiel Ansah and Dion Jordan who are a little unorthodox?
As for the junior linebackers — there’s only four (unless he counts pass rushing OLB’s). Alec Ogletree, Kevin Minter, Jelani Jenkins and Tom Wort were the only four pure linebackers to turn pro. You have to believe this team would love a shot at Ogletree.
For this weeks mock I have to go with a defensive lineman. Was there any choice after everything that’s been said over the last few days? I considered John Simon (DE, Ohio State), Alex Okafor (DE, Texas) and Sharrif Floyd (DT, Florida). Then I remembered what we’re dealing with here. John Schneider says there are ‘unique’ pass rushers available. This is a team that consistently thinks outside of the box. And I thought, why not?
Why not just put Margus Hunt with the Seahawks this week?
He’s unorthodox. He’s 6-8, 275lbs and he throws a discus. He’s Estonian. He’s also unlike any player I’ve watched before. His speed, height and weight combination is unnatural and unmatched. He’s one of the biggest physical freaks you’ll find anywhere in the world. And for all of those reasons, he’s possibly one of the most Carroll-y, Schneider-y draft picks we’ll ever find.
You can’t get anymore outside of the box than Margus Hunt. If he was 22-years-old with three years experience at a top programme he’d be a contender to go first overall. Because he’s coming to the NFL via Estonia, a cancelled SMU track and field programme and a last minute football scholarship, his stock is slightly different. Conventional wisdom tells you this is a guy who’ll be 26 in July with limited experience. The Seahawks don’t deal in conventional wisdom.
If Mike Holmgren and Tom Heckert are willing to draft a 29-year-old rookie quarterback in the late first round, why wouldn’t a team crying out for a pass rusher consider this guy in a similar range? Carroll and Schneider drafted Bruce Irvin a year ago and he turned 25 during his rookie season. That’s a whole one years difference.
He’s got the upper body strength, the ideal frame, the speed off the edge, the ability to beat a blocker with good hands. He struggles with leverage which is no surprise at 6-8. That’s something you have to live with. For a team that wants to be bigger, faster and stronger than anybody else – he fits the bill. And he’ll get to the quarterback.
Really the age thing isn’t so much a concern if he can have an impact quickly. That’s going to be the defining judgement here. For a team with Super Bowl ambitions (this team has come a long way) it doesn’t matter how old you are. It’s about finding a way to go that little bit further. Winning a Championship. He’s not going to be a ten-year starter. He’ll probably max out with a 6-year career. That’s still six potential Super Bowl runs where you have a legitimate, freak of nature pass rusher.
There are more orthodox players available, but that doesn’t seem to be how this team thinks. Where would he line up? He could start at defensive end if Chris Clemons goes on the PUP list. He can line up opposite Clemons in some balanced four-man fronts. He could line up inside like Jason Jones.
Coincide a pick like this with a free agent acquisition (Randy Starks, Henry Melton, Desmond Bryant) and suddenly this situation looks a little brighter. Margus Hunt might be part of the answer to Seattle’s problems with the pass rush. I’ve included his game tape against Fresno State at the top of this piece.
In terms of the mock draft on the whole, I’ve tried to mix things up a bit this week. I wanted to do a projection that represented two things:
1. The Kansas City Chiefs not taking a quarterback with the #1 pick
2. No early rush on quarterbacks
The position is so important that I expect the best of the group to go early. However, there are a lot of contradicting views here. And what if those views are right? There are so many noises coming out of the league that there won’t be an early rush on the position. I guess anything could happen this year. This is the first draft I’ve covered without a really obvious prospect who’s going to go first overall. It’s a unique. And I don’t want to do the same mock every week.
First round
#1 Luke Joeckel (T, Texas A&M)
This would be something of a sideways step, replacing Branden Albert. But it’s a possibility if they don’t like the QB’s enough.
#2 Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State)
The Jaguars need a pass rusher and Werner could be the choice after a 13.5-sack season.
#3 Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah)
Both of Oakland’s starting defensive tackles are free agents. They had the second worst pass rush in the NFL behind Jacksonville.
#4 Chance Warmack (G, Alabama)
Why not? He’s good enough. Chip Kelly might be more ‘pro-style’ than people think.
#5 Damontre Moore (DE, Texas A&M)
The Lions could use an edge rusher. Moore had 12.5 sacks in the SEC this year.
#6 Jarvis Jones (DE, Georgia)
Jones has top-five talent but the spinal stenosis issue will really linger. He’ll need to be cleared to go this early.
#7 Eric Fisher (T, Central Michigan)
Like Kansas City, they’ll need to really distrust the QB class to do this. But they DO need a left tackle.
#8 Alec Ogeltree (LB, Georgia)
Ogletree might have the most upside in the entire draft.
#9 Barkevious Mingo (DE, LSU)
Get Revis back, plug in a speedy pass rusher and New York’s defense will be scary. In a good way. Unlike the offense.
#10 Ezekiel Ansah (DE, BYU)
He could be a combine star.
#11 Lane Johnson (T, Oklahoma)
They need to take a left tackle.
#12 Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee)
The X-Factor player of this draft.
#13 Dee Milliner (CB, Alabama)
The complete cornerback. This would be a steal.
#14 Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri)
Pure three-technique. This would be a steal.
#15 Dion Jordan (DE, Oregon)
Jordan can make some money at the combine, so he needs to get healthy.
#16 Kenny Vaccaro (S, Texas)
Out of all the safety’s in this class, Vaccaro is getting talked up the most. He’s a solid football player.
#17 Xavier Rhodes (CB, Florida State)
I’m not a fan of Rhodes, but big physical corners are the en vouge thing.
#18 Barrett Jones (C, Alabama)
It’s a big reach, but Dallas need to fix their offensive line. And it starts with the center.
#19 Jonathan Cooper (G, North Carolina)
New York should skip to the podium if this happens.
#20 Zach Ertz (TE, Stanford)
Terrific tight end prospect. Could go even earlier.
#21 Arthur Brown (LB, Kansas State)
This guy is legit. A brilliant linebacker prospect.
#22 Jonathan Jenkins (DT, Georgia)
Will they switch to the 3-4 if they appoint Rob Ryan? If so, plug in a nose tackle to take up blockers for Long, Quinn and Brockers.
#23 Travis Frederick (C, Wisconsin)
Big body, intelligent player and looks made for a man-blocking scheme.
#24 DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Clemson)
DeAndre Hopkins is a fantastic receiver. Simple as that.
#25 Margus Hunt (DE, SMU)
I just have a hunch this front office will like the idea of drafting a beast of a pass rusher who’s also a discuss thrower from Estonia.
#26 Jesse Williams (DT, Alabama)
His best fit in my opinion is at 3-4 end.
#27 Dallas Thomas (G, Tennessee)
Underrated lineman who had a great year for a bad team.
#28 Sylvester Williams (DT, North Carolina)
He can play the one or the three technique.
#29 Kevin Minter (LB, LSU)
Tough shoes to fill, but Minter has as good a chance as anyone to succeed in replacing Ray Lewis.
#30 Sharrif Floyd (DT, Florida)
He’s well suited to the five technique in a 3-4 scheme.
#31 Matt Barkley (QB, USC)
No, I don’t think New England will draft Barkley. But it’s the kind of position where someone could trade up to kick off a run on QB’s.
#32 Johnathan Hankins (DT, Ohio State)
I don’t rate Hankins, but he might be the best ‘big’ left on the board.
Second round
#33 Jacksonville – Eddie Lacy (RB, Alabama)
#34 Kansas City – Robert Woods (WR, USC)
#35 Philadelphia – Kyle Long (T, Oregon)
#36 Detroit – Matt Elam (S, Florida)
#37 Cincinnati – Giovanni Bernard (RB, North Carolina)
#38 Arizona – Geno Smith (QB, West Virginia)
#39 New York Jets – Tyler Wilson (QB, Arkansas)
#40 Tennessee – D.J. Fluker (T, Alabama)
#41 Buffalo – Ryan Nassib (QB, Syracuse)
#42 Miami – John Simon (DE, Ohio State)
#43 Tampa Bay – Tyler Eifert (TE, Notre Dame)
#44 Carolina – Logan Ryan (CB, Rutgers)
#45 San Diego – Terrance Williams (WR, Baylor)
#46 St. Louis – Menelik Watson (T, Florida State)
#47 Dallas – Alex Okafor (DE, Texas)
#48 Pittsburgh – Markus Wheaton (WR, Oregon State)
#49 New York Giants – Johnthan Banks (CB, Mississippi State)
#50 Chicago – Justin Pugh (T, Syracuse)
#51 Washington – Tavon Austin (WR, West Virginia)
#52 Minnesota – Kawann Short (DT, Purdue)
#53 Baltimore – Sam Montgomery (DE, LSU)
#54 Cincinnati – Eric Reid (S, LSU)
#55 Seattle – Justin Hunter (WR, Tennessee)
#56 Green Bay – Oday Aboushi (T, Virginia)
#57 Miami – Brennan Williams (T, North Carolina)
#58 Houston – Keenan Allen (WR, California)
#59 San Francisco – Jordan Poyer (CB, Oregon State)
#60 New England – Blidi Wreh-Wilson (CB, Connecticut)
#61 Atlanta – Gavin Escobar (TE, San Diego State)
#62 Denver – Stepfan Taylor (RB, Stanford)
Think back to the start of 2011. In Pete Carroll’s end of season press conference he identified the running game as a cause for concern. It was supposed to be the heart and soul of this team, yet the Seahawks ranked 31st in the league for rushing. Jeremy Bates was fired as offensive coordinator, in came Darrell Bevell and Tom Cable. The teams first two draft picks were offensive lineman. There was no media kidology here — this was pure, unadulterated honesty. Carroll did what he said he was going to do.
A year later the pass rush was identified as a key area of weakness. Only ten teams had less sacks than the Seahawks in 2011. Carroll and Schneider zoned in on a pass rusher in the first round of the draft and selected a player defined by Carroll as, “the ideal LEO.” Bruce Irvin was taken with the #15 overall pick in the 2012 draft. Jason Jones was added in free agency to act as a specialist three-technique. Once again the Seahawks had been honest about their ambitions in the off-season, and most definitely pro-active.
The problem is, one plan worked better than the other. The repair work to the run game turned the #31 ranked rushing attack in 2010 into the third best this season. For all of Seattle’s moves to improve the pass rush a year ago, it’s only warranted a three-sack improvement. Bruce Irvin, Jason Jones, Greg Scruggs, Jay Howard, re-signing Chris Clemons to an extended contract. It all adds up to three more sacks.
Seattle’s total of 36 this year is probably a generous review of the pressure they were able to exert on opposing quarterbacks. An eight-sack half against the Green Bay Packers — more freak than anything – bloated that statistic into mediocrity. Without that blistering half of pass-rushing, the Seahawks are among the league’s worst for sacks. A true bottom dweller, belittling the claims that this is an elite unit.
Of course, it’s not all about sacks. It’s about consistent pressure. Green Bay aside, this was never achieved. The Seahawks faced some of the worst offensive lines in the NFL this year and couldn’t get home. In key moments against Detroit, Miami and in the season finale against Atlanta, a lack of pressure equated to defeat. Pete Carroll and Gus Bradley were forced to rush five against the Falcons in the two key plays that set up Matt Bryant’s game winning field goal yesterday. That’s music to Matt Ryan’s ears. The top pocket-passers in the NFL want. you. to. blitz.
This is one of Carroll’s rare failures so far. He and John Schneider have found a franchise quarterback with a third round pick. They’ve created easily the best secondary in the NFL despite spending only one first round pick on Earl Thomas. They’ve devised a dominating running game and found a superstar running back via a trade worth a couple of late round picks. The roster is deep with young talent and it’s trending upwards.
The lack of pass rush, however, is right up there with the Charlie Whitehurst trade. Two big blotches on the copy book. The plan hasn’t worked and it’s time to start again.
Don’t take my word for it — these are Carroll’s sentiments exactly. He appeared on the Brock and Salk show (ESPN 710) this morning and was asked about the teams needs going forward:
“We didn’t settle the issue of rushing the passer. You know Jason (Jones) came in here and he got banged up and wasn’t really able to contribute the way we’d hoped. He did everything he could but he had a bad knee. We need pass rush, I think more than anything that’s it…. We need to add up front somehow to bring the heat.”
You can here the audio at the top of this article. The quotes used above appear at the 19:00 mark.
Carroll unsurprisingly appeared deflated in his post-game press conference yesterday, where he again addressed the lack of pass rush. On Bruce Irvin he commented, “I didn’t really see him out there.” In today’s open media conference he again stated, “We need another pass rusher. We really do. We’re going to need a couple of them.”
It’s a dose of refreshing honesty in a league where most teams guard their intentions like it’s a matter of national security. Then again, it doesn’t take a genius to work out Seattle’s biggest problem. NFL.com’s Gregg Rosenthal has written a lot of positive articles about the Seahawks this season. Even he couldn’t avoid spelling it out when reflecting on the 30-28 defeat to Atlanta:
When Pete Carroll looks at the film from Sunday’s heartbreaker, he’ll know that his team’s lack of a pass rush hurt badly. The Seahawks’ defense didn’t force a punt until midway through the fourth quarter. The Seahawks registered one “quarterback hit” and zero sacks in 35 drop-backs. With the game on the line, Carroll had no faith he could get pressure Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan with his front four.
Rosenthal’s rather bleak but honest ending to the piece kind of sums it up: “That made the difference in sending the Seahawks home for the offseason.” And he’s absolutely right. The Seahawks were a pass rush away from the NFC Championship game and a one-off shot at the Super Bowl. That’s how vital this issue is — and Carroll knows it.
Everything else in place. The offense will continue to grow with Wilson and Lynch. The rest of the defense is set. There’s plenty of depth across the roster. They just need to do a better job at rushing the passer.
We now know what the primary ambition is going to be during the off-season. This team will add at least two key pass rushers. It all begins when free agency opens on March 12th and moves on to Seattle’s #25 overall pick when the draft begins on April 25th. The hard part is working out what exactly they might do to rectify this problem.
Nobody guessed the Seahawks would take Bruce Irvin with a mid-first round pick. Trying to guess what they’ll do this year could be even tougher.
What are the options?
Free agency
According to John Clayton, the Seahawks have $18.6m in cap room for 2013. Part of this will come from the savings made on Alan Branch and Jason Jones becoming free agents (both could still re-sign for cheaper deals). The other part is down to the rules of the new CBA which allows teams to ‘carry over’ unused cap into future seasons. You have to expect the front office will build on this strategy going forward with many of the teams young stars due major pay increases if they’re going to stick with the Seahawks. For example, in 2014 Richard Sherman is due to earn $690,606. He’s an unrestricted free agent in 2015 and will probably command a much greater salary. Earl Thomas and K.J. Wright will also be free agents that year.
Keeping the band together is not going to be easy unless money is saved.
Even so, there’s enough cap room to at least entertain the possibility of making some moves in free agency. The cap situation could be improved further if Matt Flynn is traded/cut or if Zach Miller is willing to spread some of his $11m 2013 cap hit into future years (he’s due to make $7m in 2014 and $6m in 2015).
In terms of pass rushers, there are some nice prospective options assuming teams don’t use the franchise tag. Desmond Bryant (DT, Oakland), Henry Melton (DT, Chicago) and Randy Starks (DT, Miami) would all upgrade the teams interior pass rush. Bryant (27) and Melton (26) are both entering their prime and will be costly. Starks (29) would probably be more cost effective but with a much more limited upside. The Seahawks made two big splashes prior to the 2011 season by signing Miller and Sidney Rice. Would they entertain a similar move to bring in a veteran three-technique?
It’s unlikely Oakland will be able to afford Bryant, given they’re a projected $4.5m over the cao for 2013. Chicago has enough room at $13.3m to make an offer to Melton, while Miami has $35.8m to play with. Funnily enough, both teams could be impacted by the future of Jake Long. Miami will surely try to re-sign their left tackle, but using the franchise tag would cost $15.4m next season. The Palm Beach Post has already reported that it’s an unlikely scenario for the Dolphins. If Long hits free agency, the Bears could be a suitor given their major issues blocking for Jay Cutler. If the left tackle market dominates the start of free agency, it could present an opportunity for teams chasing the top defensive tackles.
Out of the three options I still favour a move for Starks. He’ll not be as expensive as the other two, while his run defense is superior. He’s still capable of collapsing the pocket and making plays, plus he might be open to a front-loaded two-year contract that’ll end in time for the Seahawks to free up cap room to re-sign their own key players. Both Bryant and Melton will be searching for longer term deals with lots of guaranteed money spread over several years. At the same time, there’s no doubting that Melton is the best pass rusher of the three and would have the greatest impact overall. But at what price?
Finding a veteran edge rusher could also be a possibility, especially if Chris Clemons needs to start the 2013 season on the PUP list as he recovers from an ACL injury. Anthony Spencer (DE, Dallas), Paul Kruger (DE, Baltimore) and Michael Johnson (DE, Cincinnati) will all command good contracts as young, productive pass rushers. Osi Umenyiora (DE, New York Giants) will also be a free agent and at 32-years-old, he might be willing to sign a more modest contract to play for a contender in his final 2-3 years in the league.
Addressing other needs in free agency could allow the Seahawks to concentrate on the pass rush in the draft instead. Receivers like Dwayne Bowe (WR, Kansas City), Mike Wallace (WR, Pittsburgh), Wes Welker (WR, New England), Greg Jennings (WR, Green Bay) and Danny Amendola (WR, St. Louis) are all likely to reach free agency. Victor Cruz (WR, New York Giants) is a restricted free agent, while former USC tight end Fred Davis (TE, Washington) could emerge on Seattle’s radar.
The problem is, this will be an expensive road to go down. Last year, the Jacksonville Jaguars invested $32m in former Dallas wide-out Laurent Robinson (anyone remember him?). He caught 24 passes for 252 yards and no touchdowns in 2012. Rest assured the big-name stars listed above will be wanting at least as much as Robinson stole from the Jaguars.
This is a team being built through the draft, with pay-days earned via performance and competition. It’s unlikely that the Seahawks would ‘chase the dream’ in free agency by making multiple big moves. Stuff like that turned the Philadelphia Eagles into a laughing stock. A choice move or two seems likely though.
2013 draft
Finding productive pass rushers in the draft can be a bit of a crap shoot. For every Aldon Smith and Von Miller, there’s a Derrick Harvey, Brandon Graham or Aaron Maybin. Who expected J.J. Watt to dominate as the most dynamic pass rusher in the NFL? Probably not even the Houston Texans. The Sehawks have been burned before in this situation, owning the #25 overall pick and trading down before taking Lawrence Jackson. No other position is quite so boom-or-bust when it comes to the draft.
The 2013 class actually has a cluster of talented pass rushers available. Bjoern Werner, Damontre Moore, Jarvis Jones, Dion Jordan, Ezekiel Ansah, Barkevious Mingo, John Simon and Alex Okafor could all be first round picks at defensive end or outside linebacker. Sheldon Richardson, Star Lotulelei, Sylvester Williams, Jesse Williams and Sharrif Floyd could all be drafted at the three or five technique positions.
And that’s just a sample size. This is a deep class for defensive lineman.
Seattle’s greatest need is an interior pass rusher. They’ve lacked a natural three-technique all season and it’s been costly. It’s testament to Chris Clemons that he’s once again managed to record double digit sacks this season playing almost as the teams sole pass rusher in base defense.
There’s no reason why the Seahawks couldn’t go big in the draft to improve the pass rush. They drafted offensive lineman back-to-back in 2011 to improve the run game, would they do defensive line back-to-back in 2013? Getting an interior presence is vital, particularly if they don’t find a solution in free agency. Edge rushers and a cost-effective replacement for Jason Jones are also possible.
One player I keep coming back to at the moment is Margus Hunt — the most Seahawky non-Seahawk who’ll turn pro this year. There are numerous things that will put off teams riddled with conventional wisdom. He’ll be a 26-year-old rookie. He has limited football experience having travelled to America to work on his discuss throwing. His technique is raw. None of these things stand to concern the Seahawks, who will no doubt ask what he can do as opposed to what he can’t. What you’re getting with Hunt is a 6-8, 275lbs beast with unnatural speed for his size. While he might be an outside bet as a possible first or second round pick for Seattle, he’s exactly the kind of player you can see Carroll and Schneider taking a chance on.
In the last fortnight I’ve also begun to consider Texas’ Alex Okafor as a more realistic possibility for the Seahawks. His 4.5-sack domination of Oregon State was a master-class in speed rushing off the edge, technique and control. He has a similar frame to Clemons at 6-4, 260lbs and he had 12.5 total sacks for the Longhorns this season. Importantly, he has solid upper body strength, good hands and he understands leverage to work against the run. That’s crucial for a tall and lean defensive end.
If the Seahawks do target edge rushers in round one again, it still won’t shake the biggest need unless they act in free agency. A nasty, violent three technique is a must. Sheldon Richardson is that man. He’s likely to be a top-15 pick given the rarity of good three-techniques in the NFL. The position has proven so difficult to get right in recent years with the leagues best (Geno Atkins, Henry Melton, Darnell Dockett) being found in the middle rounds. Every now and again though, a talent emerges. And Richardson looks like he could buck the trend of disappointing first round defensive tackles.
Do you need further evidence that he fits the Seattle’s scheme? USC spent considerable time trying to prize him away from Missouri during his time in the JUCO ranks. At one point he appeared to commit to the Trojans, only to stick to his initial decision and play in the SEC. Monte Kiffin wanted this guy in his defense — and it just so happens Seattle’s two key defensive brains are both Kiffin disciples.
Getting Richardson with the 25th overall pick would be a gift from the football gods. Yet there’s some hope in the form of character red flags. He’s the prototype three-technique, right down to the attitude and smack talk. It’ll rub some coaches and GM’s up the wrong way. He also served a one-game suspension in 2012 as a punishment for skipping class. It’s still a long shot, but if you’re lucky enough to find a franchise quarterback in round three of the draft, you’ll never rule out Sheldon Richardson suffering a fall on April 25th.
Scheme changes
Carroll seems agitated by the lack of pass rush, and maybe even a little let down. Bruce Irvin has endured a mixed rookie season. He hit a wall mid-way through the year and struggled to have much impact after the bye week. The Atlanta game was supposed to be his chance to show he can be a starter at the LEO position — but he struggled mightily. So concerned at getting beaten by the run, Irvin committed to it almost exclusively. The end result? He was a complete non-factor as a pass rusher.
The Seahawks might be going through the same moment of realisation experienced by West Virginia. They tried to force a starting role on Irvin, albeit in an ill-suited three-man front. He struggled and quickly reverted back to his productive specialist role. The decision paid off and he ended his final year with the Mountaineers strongly.
It might be time to accept what Irvin really is — a specialist. He’s always been at his best concentrating on one thing and one thing only… getting to the quarterback. Let him pin his ears back and go. Playing at the line of scrimmage in a four man front carries too much responsibility for a player incapable of manning the role. He’ll get you 8-12 sacks a year as a third down specialist. He’ll make big plays — just like he did against Carolina and Washington. But those big plays will come in decisive and specific moments, not regularly during a four-quarter game of football.
The thing is, Carroll truly believed Irvin was the ‘ideal LEO’ for his scheme. I’m not sure that’s the case. Not any more. That could be premature, it could be unfair. But I have to believe Carroll is contemplating Irvin’s duties going forward, especially if Chris Clemons can’t start the 2013 season. When you draft a pass rusher with your first round pick and 12 months later state “pass rusher” as the teams biggest need, something isn’t right. Irvin can be a fine specialist pass rusher, but that might be his ceiling.
This isn’t about one player though. Overall the Seahawks haven’t rushed the passer well enough in three seasons of Carroll’s programme. If you’re truly going to review how to make things better, don’t you have to look at the scheme too? It hasn’t really ever created sufficient pressure, even against the bad teams.
One of the problems is the unbalanced nature of Seattle’s attack. By focusing solely on a LEO rusher, it’s easier for the offensive line to max protect one side. A running back in pass protection can cover the left tackle and suddenly Clemons is trying to beat a double team to get home on a lot of plays. Using three big bodies in base defense (Bryant, Mebane, Branch) should theoretically make the Seahawks tough to run on. That isn’t the case. The run defense got progressively worse as the season went on. The unit failed to receive any benefit from using three non-pass rushers on their defensive line.
Theoretically things stand to improve immensely with the introduction of a legitimate three-technique. It’s also worth noting that San Francisco use a tandem on one side more often than not with Justin and Aldon Smith. It’s unbalanced, but works because the two pass rushers are high-quality and the rest of the line plays stout against the run. Will it be enough for Seattle though? If the Seahawks are going to use a 4-3 defense, do they need to start running a more balanced pass rush? Do they have to re-consider Red Bryant’s role as a defensive end and consider moving him back inside?
I’ve argued with several people about the significance of Bryant this season. Carroll made him the highest paid defensive player on the team for a reason. I believe the use of a proper three-technique will lift the defense and perhaps legitimise his role as a defensive end if the pass rush and run defense both improve next year. He continues to be a vocal leader for a young roster. That doesn’t excuse poor play, but it has to factor into why the Seahawks are so keen to keep him at the forefront of their defense.
I concede Carroll will likely review the situation during the off-season. He’s shown a willingness to be pro-active and go against his own beliefs for the greater good. I also suspect after some soul searching he’ll stick with his original plan and try to enhance it. That doesn’t mean the Seahawks can’t bring in personnel to incorporate a more orthodox 4-3 front if needs be. I’m not convinced Irvin and Clemons can act as a base tandem without any pass rush up the middle. But get a player who can act as a more natural left end, bring in a proper three-technique and suddenly, you can be flexible against certain opponents and situations.
This is still a good defense overall, but they need a plan to combat late game winning drives like we saw in Detroit, Miami and Atlanta. Being able to turn to a more balanced pass rush in the hour of need is crucial. I don’t think this team will totally go away from the Bryant experiment or the 4-3 under. But I do think they’ll make the moves to be more flexible.
Moving forward
We’ve talked a lot about the defense here and it seems somewhat unfair not to even mention Russell Wilson. Hours after a stunning performance against Atlanta, he was in front of the media today for his final press-conference of the season. His performance in front of the microphone was almost more impressive than the action on the field. He looked and sounded like the heart of this franchise. He oozed confidence and spoke with authority. For the first time, he came across like a spokesperson for the players.
Wilson sported a hoodie noting his slogan, “No time 2 sleep” and acted like a ten-year veteran. This is a team game, he’ll be the first to tell you that. Yet Wilson looked every bit a franchise quarterback during this interview — saying exactly the right things, talking about his optimism for the future. I always believed the identity of this team would come back to Pete Carroll. Slowly but surely, it seems to be shifting towards Russell Wilson.
You’d like to make his life easier next season by at least investing in one more solid receiving option. A Zach Ertz, a DeAndre Hopkins or even one of those free agent pass-catchers could be a key addition to the offense. I suspect at least one of those early draft picks will be saved for a pass-catcher.
Ultimately though the difference between joy and pain this time next year will rest on Carroll and Schneider’s ability to improve the pass rush. To quote Kip — and I’m sure he won’t mind me using this quote — “I truly believe that the Seahawks would be unbeatable if they had a defensive line like Denver’s or Cincinnati’s and stayed healthy. They’d be the Women’s UCONN team of the NFL.”
I tend to agree.
I’ve included some game tape videos below to show off some of the prospects that could provide the answers in 2013. This includes a new Sheldon Richardson video vs Tennesse, courtesy of JMPasq.
Another week, another mock draft. This time things are a little bit clearer for the team picking first overall.
Andy Reid is in at Kansas City. The main reason the Chiefs job was so attractive was in part because they’re such grand underachievers. They have two good pass rushers, two excellent defensive backs, an explosive running back, a decent offensive line and some young receiving options. There is no way this team should be picking first overall.
The reason they are is simple – they don’t have a quarterback. Reid will know if he finds one, Kansas City could enjoy a resurgence and become competitive in an AFC West division that isn’t exactly daunting (Peyton Manning won’t play forever). He has to draft a quarterback first overall and I’m sticking to my guns on who he’ll take. I want to talk about this briefly before getting into this week’s projection.
A lot of people want to tell you how bad the quarterback class is, but in reality it’s just not as good as last year. There’s no Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III that tick every media-friendly box. Elite athleticism? Check. Character? Check. Feel good storyline? Check.
What you’ve got instead are three decent quarterbacks who all deserve first round consideration. Matt Barkley, Geno Smith and Tyler Wilson all have their faults, but all have striking positives too. It’s not a black hole situation for Kansas City and they can win with all three of these players in my opinion. For all the hand-wringing over the quarterback position, who else truly deserves to be the #1 overall pick? I’m not convinced Luke Joeckel is quite as good as a Matt Kalil for example (4th overall last year) while the top pass rushers don’t get close to Jadeveon Clowney (a probable #1-2 overall pick in 2014). This isn’t like the time St. Louis took Sam Bradford over Ndamukong Suh. There really aren’t many alternatives that will lead Kansas City away from trying to solve their quarterback dilemma.
Anyone playing any position could be a top-ten pick this year. That’s just the way it is. The talent differential between picks #1-25 is going to be minimal. And there’s no none-quarterback who truly deserves to go first overall.
If Reid ignores the position with the first pick, he’ll likely be depending on a Ryan Nassib, Tyler Bray, Mike Glennon or Landry Jones being available in the middle rounds. That seems like the blueprint to another lost year, and Reid needs to kick start this franchise and find momentum early.
So which of the three quarterbacks should Kansas City select? I still think it has to be Matt Barkley.
There’s a lot of garbage talked about Barkley – how he had a bad year, how he only succeeded due to the talent around him. If you want to blame anyone for USC’s meltdown this year, look no further than Lane Kiffin. When he wasn’t busy being a jerk to the media or playing silly mind-games with opponents, he was overseeing a shambles on the field.
Amid this shambles, Barkley still threw 36 touchdown passes. Had he not missed the last two games through injury, he would’ve likely topped 2011′s 39 scores – beating a season that won universal praise. He had to operate behind a porous offensive line minus Matt Kalil and with center Khaled Holmes suffering an injury plagued year. He ran an offense that scored 51 points against the Oregon Ducks – I guess Barkley also needed to play defense too seeing as Monte Kiffin’s unit gave up 62 themselves? In a bad year for the Trojans, Barkley’s numbers still stand out. So why is he getting so much bad publicity? Why has he gone, for example, from #1 to #32 on Todd McShay’s big board? Why has he gone from #1 on Mel Kiper’s board to not even being included – while Mike Glennon does make the list? I understand if you never rated Barkley to start with, but how does he go from best to borderline first rounder based on a 36-touchdown season? That makes zero sense.
If his success at USC was only due to a strong supporting cast, why did Max Wittek only throw for 107 yards against a rank bad Georgia Tech outfit in the Sun Bowl? Wittek has a better arm than Barkley, he’d played against Notre Dame previously. Why wasn’t the talent at receiver helping him put up big numbers against a mediocre opponent?
Andy Reid can build around a quarterback like Barkley. He is a methodical, accurate quarterback. He’s not going to run the read-option or beat you with his legs. He will orchestrate an orthodox passing offense, make quick, intelligent decisions and act as a point guard for your playmakers. In the right environment, Barkely can shine. Kansas City has that right environment. They can protect him, run the ball and use a possession-based offense. And they can win football games.
He’s also an engaging, hard-working character who will quickly take control of the offense. If you build to his strengths, he will succeed. I’ve long believed he has an upside potential comparable to Philip Rivers and I see no reason to doubt that. Rivers is competitive, accurate and when he’s had tools he’s been elite. If Kansas City builds correctly, Reid can win with Barkley.
In Philadelphia he drafted smaller, quicker receivers (DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin). The Chiefs should target Robert Woods with their second pick and maybe also Markus Wheaton. That way they can run a lot of quick screens, slants and get the ball to their playmakers – just as Barkley operated at USC. He has a bigger target in Jonathan Baldwin, although Dwayne Bowe appears likely to depart. Jamaal Charles is a perfect foil as a runner/receiver. With a good defense already installed, this could be a 9-10 win team in 2013.
You can make arguments for the other two quarterbacks too. Geno Smith has a superior fast ball and showed real efficiency at the start of the college season before things imploded at West Virginia (similar to USC’s crash, although Smith’s stock somehow stayed intact while Barkley’s fell). Tyler Wilson is surprisingly mobile and more of a gun slinger – plus he had no chance of succeeding in Arkansas’ season from hell. He does force too many passes though and occasionally makes questionable decisions. I still think Barkley presents the best option as a technically gifted passer who can act as a point guard for Andy Reid. And if he needs any reminder of what Barkley is capable of, he needs only look at the 2011 Oregon tape. Why not ask Chip Kelly what he thinks about Matt Barkley?
Three other quick notes – Tennessee defensive lineman Darrington Sentimore today declared for the draft. He’s a former transfer from Alabama. This is a boost for Seahawks fans hoping to identify a mid-round defensive tackle who can rush the passer. Sentimore is a fiery character, he weighs 290lbs and is 6-2 in height. He never truly delivered on his promise in college, but he has a lot of talent. He could be on Seattle’s radar. I’ve also left out Brandon Coleman in this weeks projection. Rutgers coach Kyle Flood says he doesn’t expect any more players to turn pro before the January 15th deadline and Coleman is yet to commit either way. I think he’d be better off turning pro given the quarterback situation, but it appears he might be spending another year in college. He’s only a redshirt sophomore. Taylor Lewan announced today he will be returning to Michigan for his senior year.
Onto this week’s mock draft…
First round
#1 Matt Barkley (QB, USC)
The Chiefs need a quarterback. They don’t have a terrible roster. They have to do this.
#2 Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State)
The Jaguars need a pass rusher and Werner could be the choice after a 13.5-sack season.
#3 Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri)
Only Jacksonville had less sacks than Oakland this season. Richardson could be the next great interior pass rusher.
#4 Luke Joeckel (T, Texas A&M)
This is the starting point for whoever replaces Andy Reid. They have to repair the offensive line.
#5 Damontre Moore (DE, Texas A&M)
The Lions could use an edge rusher. Moore had 12.5 sacks in the SEC this year.
#6 Jarvis Jones (DE, Georgia)
Jones has top-five talent but the spinal stenosis issue will really linger. He’ll need to be cleared to go this early.
#7 Geno Smith (QB, West Virginia)
They need a quarterback. Simple as that.
#8 Alec Ogeltree (LB, Georgia)
Buffalo might trade back into the first round to get a quarterback, allowing them to take the best player available here.
#9 Chance Warmack (G, Alabama)
If Chance Warmack went first overall, it’d still be good value.
#10 Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah)
Plenty of upside here, just not a lot of consistency.
#11 Eric Fisher (T, Central Michigan)
They need to take a left tackle.
#12 Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee)
The X-Factor player of this draft.
#13 Dee Milliner (CB, Alabama)
The complete cornerback. This would be a steal.
#14 Sylvester Williams (DT, Utah)
Big-bodied defensive tackle who can get to the quarterback and play well against the run.
#15 Dion Jordan (DE, Oregon)
Jordan will know he can make some money at the combine, so he needs to get healthy.
#16 Lane Johnson (T, Oklahoma)
With Taylor Lewan deciding to return to Michigan, this is great news for the technically sound Lane Johnson.
#17 Matt Elam (S, Florida)
Pure playmaker in the secondary.
#18 Jonathan Cooper (G, North Carolina)
Athletic guard who could even switch to tackle. He will start for 10+ years.
#19 Ezekiel Ansah (DE, BYU)
Another player who could really boost his stock with a great combine.
#20 Justin Pugh (T, Syracuse)
The next best tackle on the board.
#21 Barkevious Mingo (DE, LSU)
He had a tremendous Chick-fil-A Bowl.
#22 Arthur Brown (LB, Kansas State)
This guy is legit. A brilliant linebacker prospect.
#23 Travis Frederick (C, Wisconsin)
He’s going pro after dominating at guard and center. Big body, looks made for a man-blocking scheme.
#24 DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Clemson)
Minnesota needs a reliable receiver to compliment Adrian Peterson’s brilliance. They kind of need a quarterback, too.
#25 Manti Te’o (LB, Notre Dame)
The Ravens always seem to get value. What better way to replace an emotional leader?
#26 Zach Ertz (TE, Stanford)
Stanford’s leading receiver, his blocking is also better than advertised.
#27 Jesse Williams (DT, Alabama)
His best fit in my opinion is at 3-4 end.
#28 Sharrif Floyd (DT, Florida)
He’s a good fit for the 3-4 end position. Long term Jason Smith replacement?
#29 Dallas Thomas (G, Tennessee)
He had a great year on a losing team. Can play tackle or guard.
#30 Tyler Wilson (QB, Arkansas)
No, I don’t think the Patriots draft Wilson. But a team like Buffalo could trade into this range to get him.
#31 Jonathan Jenkins (DT, Georgia)
They could use a big body to help the run defense.
#32 Kevin Minter (LB, LSU)
Denver can afford to take a solid football player here.
Second round
#33 Jacksonville – Alex Okafor (DE, Texas)
#34 Kansas City – Robert Woods (WR, USC)
#35 Philadelphia – Barrett Jones (C, Alabama)
#36 Detroit – Jonathan Banks (CB, Mississippi State)
#37 Cincinnati – Eddie Lacy (RB, Alabama)
#38 Arizona – Kyle Long (T, Oregon)
#39 New York Jets – Tavon Austin (WR, West Virginia)
#40 Tennessee – Gabe Jackson (G, Mississippi State)
#41 Buffalo – Logan Ryan (CB, Rutgers)
#42 Miami – John Simon (DE, Ohio State)
#43 Tampa Bay – Tyler Eifert (TE, Notre Dame)
#44 Carolina – Shawn Williams (S, Georgia)
#45 San Diego – Justin Hunter (WR, Tennessee)
#46 St. Louis – Kenny Vaccaro (S, Texas)
#47 Dallas – Jonathan Hankins (DT, Ohio State)
#48 Pittsburgh – Markus Wheaton (WR, Oregon State)
#49 New York Giants – Oday Aboushi (T, Virginia)
#50 Chicago – Gavin Escobar (TE, San Diego State)
#51 Washington – Eric Reid (S, LSU)
#52 Minnesota – Bennie Logan (DT, LSU)
#53 Baltimore – Xavier Rhodes (CB, Florida State)
#54 Cincinnati – D.J. Fluker (T, Alabama)
#55 Seattle – Khaseem Greene (LB, Rutgers)
#56 Green Bay – Giovanni Bernard (RB, North Carolina)
#57 Miami – Brennan Williams (T, North Carolina)
#58 Houston – Keenan Allen (WR, California)
#59 San Francisco – Jordan Poyer (CB, Oregon State)
#60 New England – Blidi Wreh-Wilson (CB, Connecticut)
#61 Atlanta – Margus Hunt (DE, SMU)
#62 Denver – Terrance Williams (WR, Baylor)
Next best available
QB – Mike Glennon, Tyler Bray, Ryan Nassib, Landry Jones
DeAndre Hopkins dominated LSU's secondary, something not many people achieve
DeAndre Hopkins is Mr. Consistent – a clutch receiver without the eye-popping physical qualities. He makes up for it by getting the basics right – he catches with his hands, doesn’t have many drops, runs good routes and makes crucial rather than explosive plays.
Cordarrelle Patterson is the X-Factor player of the 2013 draft. He’s 6-3/6-4, could run a 4.35 at the combine and hits home runs. He’s a threat to score every time he gets the football, setting a school record for all purpose yards in his first season with Tennessee. Patterson doesn’t play with great technique, but he’s a playmaker.
Which is the better fit for the Seahawks?
On the one hand they have a young quarterback who needs as many consistent targets as possible. When it’s third down in a big game, Russell Wilson needs to know there are guys on the field he can rely on. He also needs as much dynamism as possible in this offense. Seattle likes to make quick strikes down field, usually off play action. Speed, height and reach are crucial as Wilson looks to exploit single coverage and jump-ball situations.
Hopkins is no slouch and we’re not talking about a mediocre athlete who can only run short, inside routes. You don’t get to 1405 yards and 18 touchdowns playing steady football. He can get downfield, he can run after the catch. Yet he doesn’t compare favourably with the statistical top-five receivers in the NFL who all weigh +225lbs and stand at least 6-3 tall. He compares favourably to Roddy White, but there aren’t many dominating receivers who play outside at his size.
Patterson had 1,858 all-purpose yards in 2012 – more than any other player in the SEC. He scored five receiving touchdowns and three rushing – plus two extra scores via punt and kick returns. However, he also faced something of a learning curve in his first season in the NCAA. His technique looks off and he looks every bit a player fresh out of the JUCO ranks. He gets his body into awkward positions to catch the ball and doesn’t often extend his hands to make a completion. These things can be coached and he has the athletic prowess to make for a worthy project.
Let’s look at the tape…
DeAndre Hopkins vs LSU
This was one of the all-time best performances I’ve seen from a receiver, mainly due to the sheer quantity of clutch plays. Sammy Watkins left the game in Clemson’s first offensive series through injury, meaning the LSU secondary could zone in on Hopkins. He still found ways to get open despite double coverage. He still made difficult passes with a corner draped all over him. He had two difficult touchdown receptions, several third down completions and made the play of the game on 4th and 16 to extend the game-winning drive.
Look at the technique at 0:35 in the video where he extends his arms to make a catch for the first down. Hopkins locates the ball mid-route, reaches out and plucks the football out of the air. Textbook reception.
At 1:49 he absorbs a holding call against the corner, fights off some physical coverage and still locates the back-shoulder throw for a completion. He needs to prove he can be physical at 6-1 and 200lbs.
The two touchdowns at 2:25 and 5:57 emphasise how crisp he runs his routes, how he can make difficult catches in traffic and convert on key downs. Bear in mind LSU were fully aware Tajh Boyd would be looking for Hopkins on both plays.
At 3:07 he flashes his athleticism to make a man miss and turn a short gain into a first down. The 4th and 16 conversion comes at 6:48 and prevents LSU from winning the game. Again – another tough grab.
The one thing that keeps jumping out – you don’t need to make a perfect throw with this guy. He’s going to adjust to the ball in the air, extend and complete the catch. He might not be the most dynamic receiver in college football. He might not run the fastest forty yard dash. But he’s a driven and ambitious player who will work hard to have an impact.
We talked about his character and drive to succeed in a piece earlier this week. I have no doubts that he’ll work hard at his craft. His personality and attitude appears to compare favourably to Julio Jones, who won major brownie points with the Atlanta Falcons because they knew they could trust him to work at his craft.
There are some issues too – as always. Hopkins is a pure hands catcher but he doesn’t necessarily have the strongest hands. Sometimes when a ball is a little high and he has to extend, he misses the catch. As cornerbacks in the NFL get bigger, questions are going to be asked if a player of this stature can win a high percentage of jump passes (a heavy staple in Seattle’s offense). Teams are looking for big receivers who don’t necessarily run a 4.3, but can be competitive and win 1vs1 match-ups in the air.
Neither is Hopkins a truly explosive player. While you can never truly have enough reliable pass-catchers, do the Seahawks need to look for something they don’t have? Is this an offense that lacks more of an X-Factor type – someone with unique dynamism who can make quick strikes downfield or major YAC? Or can we sometimes be distracted by flashy playmakers when really the core quality a receiver needs is the ability to get open and make a play. The question becomes, can Hopkins continue to get open and make regular plays in the bigger, faster world of the NFL?
One example that says he can is the game above. LSU’s secondary remains one of the best in college football. And he dominated them to the tune of 13 catches for 191 yards and two vital touchdowns. GM’s, scouts and coaches around the league will turn to this game when they sit down to scout Hopkins… and they’ll like what they see.
Cordarrelle Patterson vs Florida, Missouri, Vanderbilt and Georgia
Only the Florida game in the tape above was among Patterson’s most productive (eight catches, 75 yards and a touchdown) in 2012. By the end of the season Tennessee were just trying to find ways to get him the ball – thus why you see him taking a lot of snaps as a running back. In part this is a concern. His consistency as a receiver took a hit after week three vs Florida when teams started using physical corners to disrupt his routes. The solution? Find other ways to get him the ball because he’s too much of a playmaker. They did that, and he scored touchdowns and made big plays.
He’s pretty much the ‘Ying’ to Hopkins’ ‘Yang’. Patterson hasn’t been a production machine who churns out 6-8 catches a game. Yet sometimes he only needs one catch or one possession to have a major impact.
Here are some of the good plays from the tape above. At 2:28 he’s being held all the way by a defensive back, but he keeps his focus and extends to make a smart diving catch. We see the best example of strong hands at 7:06 when he plucks the ball out of the air for a nice completion.
He’s capable of trick plays – something that has been more of a feature for the Seahawks this year. At 3:29 he throws a pass on a fake run and at 4:46 he scores on a reverse against Missouri. Perhaps the best play in the tape is at 11:37 where he takes a reverse and is set to throw to Justin Hunter. He’s not open, so Patterson has to pull the ball down and run. Which he does, finding the edge and running half the field for a spectacular touchdown.
At 7:51 he flashes some of that punt return quality before taking one all the way at 10:04 against Vanderbilt – managing to avoid hitting the turf despite a heavy tackle, keeping his balance and taking it home.
We see further evidence of his elusiveness at 5:41 when he appears to be bottled up for a short loss only to extend the pay, stretch it out and make something out of nothing. Great athleticism.
Then there are the concerns, such as the awful drop against Georgia at 10:59. It’s a perfect throw by Tyler Bray, right on the money for a touchdown. Patterson has his guy beat – all he has to do is make a simple catch and he runs it home for a score. Bad, bad drop. There’s a further sloppy play at 2:39 going for a one-handed effort when two hands and a little more commitment makes a big gain.
Against Akron (not featured in the video) he was responsible for a pick-six by rounding off his route and not challenging for the ball. His catching technique is far from perfect – even when he makes plays. Patterson has a tendency to contort his body and make life difficult for himself. He’s more of a body catcher and let’s it get into his chest/stomach too much. There’s not a great deal of evidence on tape of him winning jump balls.
At the same time, you cannot expect the finished article from what essentially amounts to a freshman in college. He transferred from the JUCO ranks and started in week one, going straight into the line-up to replace dismissed receiver Da’Rick Rogers. In his first year in the league, you’ll probably throw him out there as part of some package plays. Let him run some deep routes and return some kicks. It’s bonus time to get coached in the pro’s. And it’s only then that you can expect to see anything like a complete player. In the meantime you might just get a really dangerous weapon who can still make some big plays. Score some touchdowns. Seattle took a similar approach with Kam Chancellor in year one and it paid dividends. Golden Tate has looked sharp after two years having little impact. There’s precedent there for bringing guys along slowly knowing the upside and potential at stake.
What is Patterson’s ceiling? He has the speed. He has the size. He makes game-changing plays and scores cheap points. Essentially, the sky’s the limit. But you might also have to stomach some of the mistakes to get to the promise land.
So what’s it to be?
The Seahawks have looked at both kinds of players in the draft. Bruce Irvin was a former JUCO transfer with raw potential and mass-production in college in a specialist role. He was judged to be a top-15 pick because he fit the teams scheme (although Pete Carroll’s familiarity with Irvin also played a key part). Patterson does fit the quick-strike offense, he can work in trick plays and he’s explosive.
On the other hand, they’ve also gone the route of very solid, productive players who are consistent without prototypical size – with one obvious example of that. And I don’t think they’ll be averse to take players like that in round one to help that particular player reach his maximum potential. Consistency is not an ugly word for a wide receiver and Hopkins simply gets the job done.
Time for the weekly mock draft update and the first for 2013. I promised video of DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Clemson) performance against LSU in this weeks Chick-fil-A Bowl and you’ll find it above. I’m going to break it down tomorrow, but wanted to include it in this piece because… well you’ve probably worked it out by now.
Thoughts on the mock
- This is the hardest time of the year to do a mock draft. Several teams haven’t got coaches or even GM’s. If Andy Reid lands in Arizona, will he really give Kevin Kolb another chance as the starter? If Ray Horton is appointed as a Head Coach, will it be to a team that suddenly has to adjust to the 3-4? Basically this thing could look a lot different in a fortnight. Not that it’s anything remotely like an accurate projection in early January. It’s just a discussion starter.
- I’m not convinced by some of the recent hype around certain quarterbacks. Tyler Bray has plenty of arm talent but made far too many mistakes this year and others have questioned his attitude. I can’t put him in the first two rounds at the moment. Suddenly Tajh Boyd is being touted as a first or second round pick based on his performance against LSU. I just can’t see that happening based on his overall 2012 performance. Mike Glennon is another player suddenly receiving a fair amount of hype. He still warrants (at best) a mid-round grade in my opinion.
- I still think Matt Barkley is the best quarterback in this class and therefore the most likely player to go #1 overall. USC has been a shambles on the field this year and a PR disaster off it. Lane Kiffin is lucky to still be in a job. He is completely responsible for the mess at Southern Cal. Yet despite all of this, Barkley had 36 touchdowns and a 157.6 passer rating – less than four points short of his 2011 mark where everybody was touting him as a top-ten pick. And for all those people questioning whether he’d be as good without Marqise Lee and Robert Woods, I present to you the Georgia Tech game – where Max Wittek managed a grand total of 107 yards and had three interceptions in a lousy defeat. Barkley isn’t the physical comparison to Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III or Cam Newton. He is, however, an accurate and accomplished passer with the kind of attitude you can build a franchise around. The Chiefs have a good supporting cast, they just need a guy to pull it all together.
- I haven’t included Jake Matthews (T, Texas A&M) following a report that he’s likely to stay in school for his senior year. With Luke Joeckel likely to turn pro, Matthews would have the opportunity to play left tackle next year for the Aggies. If he performs to expectations, that would put him in position to be a possible top-five pick in 2014.
- I’ve said this a few times, but this is a really good draft to be picking in the late first round. The talent differential from the top-ten to the 20-32 range is minimal. Whether the Seahawks pick 21st overall or 32nd, there’s going to be some good options to help keep this team moving forward. So basically, feel free to reach the Super Bowl guys.
Back to a first and second round projection today.
First round
#1 Matt Barkley (QB, USC)
The Chiefs need a quarterback. They don’t have a terrible roster. They have to do this.
#2 Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State)
The Jaguars need a pass rusher and Werner could steadily move up the boards after a 13.5 sack season.
#3 Damontre Moore (DE, Texas A&M)
Only Jacksonville had less sacks than Oakland this season. Moore had 12.5 in the SEC for Texas A&M.
#4 Luke Joeckel (T, Texas A&M)
This is the starting point for whoever replaces Andy Reid. They have to repair the offensive line.
#6 Jarvis Jones (DE, Georgia)
Jones has top-five talent but the spinal stenosis issue will really linger. He’ll need to be cleared to go this early.
#7 Geno Smith (QB, West Virginia)
Are they seriously considering persevering with Kevin Kolb? Really?
#8 Manti Te’o (LB, Notre Dame)
Buffalo might trade back into the first round to get a quarterback, allowing them to take the best player available here.
#9 Chance Warmack (G, Alabama)
If they really want to play smash-mouth football, this is the guy they should take.
#10 Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri)
There’s a bit of Dockett in there. He could be the next great three-technique.
#11 Eric Fisher (T, Central Michigan)
They need to take a left tackle.
#12 Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee)
The X-Factor player of this draft.
#13 Dee Milliner (CB, Alabama)
The complete cornerback. This would be a steal.
#14 Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah)
Massive upside, but too inconsistent for the top-ten.
#15 Dion Jordan (DE, Oregon)
Jordan will know he can make some money at the combine.
#16 Taylor Lewan (T, Michigan)
The next best tackle on the board.
#17 Matt Elam (S, Florida)
Pure playmaker in the secondary.
#18 Jonathan Cooper (G, North Carolina)
Athletic guard who could even switch to tackle. He will start for 10+ years.
#19 Ezekiel Ansah (DE, BYU)
Another player who could really boost his stock with a great combine.
#20 Zach Ertz (TE, Stanford)
With the tackles off the board, Chicago goes best player available on offense.
#21 Barkevious Mingo (DE, LSU)
He had a tremendous Chick-fil-A Bowl.
#22 Arthur Brown (LB, Kansas State)
This guy is legit. A brilliant linebacker prospect.
#23 Kevin Minter (LB, LSU)
It’s time to start planning for life after Ray Lewis (legend).
#24 Brandon Coleman (WR, Rutgers)
He’s contemplating whether to declare. If he does, he has more upside than any other receiver in this class.
#25 Jonathan Jenkins (DT, Georgia)
When building a 3-4, you need a nose tackle.
#26 DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Clemson)
Just a really good football player. Mr. Clutch.
#27 Jesse Williams (DT, Alabama)
His best fit in my opinion is at 3-4 end.
#28 John Simon (DE, Ohio State)
Blue-collar pass rusher. Underrated.
#29 Dallas Thomas (G, Tennessee)
He had a great year on a losing team. Can play tackle or guard.
#30 Tyler Wilson (QB, Arkansas)
No, I don’t think the Patriots draft Wilson. But a team like Buffalo could trade into this range to get him.
#31 Sylvester Williams (DT, North Carolina)
They could use another interior pass rusher.
#32 Johnathan Hankins (DT, Ohio State)
He’d go higher if he showed more consistent effort.
Second round
#33 Jacksonville – Jonathan Banks (CB, Mississippi State)
#34 Kansas City – Robert Woods (WR, USC)
#35 Philadelphia – Barrett Jones (C, Alabama)
#36 Detroit – Logan Ryan (CB, Rutgers)
#37 Cincinnati – Giovanni Bernard (RB, North Carolina)
#38 Arizona – Justin Pugh (T, Syracuse)
#39 New York Jets – Tavon Austin (WR, West Virginia)
#40 Tennessee – Kyle Long (T, Oregon)
#41 Buffalo – Markus Wheaton (WR, Oregon State)
#42 Miami – Alex Okafor (DE, Texas)
#43 Tampa Bay – Tyler Eifert (TE, Notre Dame)
#44 Carolina – Shawn Williams (S, Georgia)
#45 San Diego – Justin Hunter (WR, Tennessee)
#46 St. Louis – Kenny Vaccaro (S, Texas)
#47 Dallas – Xavier Rhodes (CB, Florida State)
#48 Pittsburgh – Eddie Lacy (RB, Alabama)
#49 New York Giants – Oday Aboushi (T, Virginia)
#50 Chicago – D.J. Fluker (T, Alabama)
#51 Washington – Eric Reid (S, LSU)
#52 Minnesota – Bennie Logan (DT, LSU)
#53 Baltimore – Sharrif Floyd (DE, Florida)
#54 Cincinnati – Keenan Allen (WR, California)
#55 Seattle – Khaseem Greene (LB, Rutgers)
#56 Green Bay – Stepfan Taylor (RB, Stanford)
#57 Miami – Lane Johnson (T, Oklahoma)
#58 Houston – Gavin Escobar (TE, San Diego State)
#59 San Francisco – Jordan Poyer (CB, Oregon State)
#60 New England – Blidi Wreh-Wilson (CB, Connecticut)
#61 Atlanta – Brennan Williams (T, North Carolina)
#62 Denver – Terrance Williams (WR, Baylor)
Time to start a new bandwagon. A DeAndre Hopkins shaped bandwagon.
Without any doubt at all, he’s a stud. Any doubts about this guy need to be firmly removed following an incredible solo-performance against mighty LSU yesterday. He’s a top-20 talent who may go later… and a smart team will be ready to capitalise.
LSU’s passing defense isn’t quite as sharp since losing Morris Claiborne and Patrick Peterson to the NFL (and Tyronn Mathieu to marijuana) but this was still a terrific performance from an underrated player. Give credit too to quarterback Tajh Boyd, who had to deal with a relentless pass rush and constant pressure. But there’s no doubting who the star of the show was.
Hopkins had 13 catches, 191 yards and two touchdowns. His first score was set up by a physical grab down the left sideline, competing against pass interference to turn and locate the ball before making a difficult catch (see the play here). The touchdown (click here) owed a lot to Boyd’s accuracy and velocity, fitting a pass into a tight window. But Hopkins made the catch look easy in traffic. Clutch completion.
The second score was another tough catch at the back of the end zone, made possible by a good route (click here). It’s the kind of effortless play Hopkins makes time and time again. He’s such a smooth, controlled route runner with the hands to match.
I’m going to post the full game tape on the blog soon, but here are the other characteristics he flashed on the night. He’s a pure hands catcher. For nearly every one of his 13 receptions he extended his arms and plucked the ball out of the air. He had one drop by my count – a high pass on a crossing route he had no real duty to complete. His reaction was poignant – sheer frustration at himself for not making the grab. It’s testament to his character and attitude, something I’ll come back to later.
Fortunately drops are not a concern. He smothered every other pass thrown his way – on one occasion leaping above a defensive back to make a completion with his finger tips. For all the great physical traits you find with other players – and you’ll hear pundits continually talk about size and speed when it comes to the wide out position – you just cannot beat a guy who catches everything thrown his way and makes game-winning plays. ‘Reliable’ is sometimes superior to ‘explosive’. When you’re driving for the win, a quarterback wants a guy he knows he can go to. It might be his third read on the play, but he always knows in the back of his man is going to be there. In the red zone? Where’s my guy. This is the type of player Hopkins will be at the next level.
We’ve talked about clutch plays, but there was no greater example of this than a 4th and 16 completion on the game’s final drive. He found just enough separation over the middle for Boyd to slip a pass in between two defenders – similar to his first touchdown. Hopkins makes the diving catch and holds onto the ball. That play essentially won Clemson the game, as shortly after they marched down field and scored the winning field goal as time expired. Drop the pass and LSU wins.
He’s not the biggest receiver at 6-1 and 200-205lbs. He’s also not among the fastest – I’d project a time in the 4.45-4.50 range at the combine. This is where the league is in danger of being fooled again.
Conventional wisdom says that’s not spectacular enough for a high pick. The five most productive receivers in the NFL this year statistically were Calvin Johnson (6-5, 236lbs), Andre Johnson (6-3, 230lbs), Brandon Marshall (6-4, 230lbs), Demaryius Thomas (6-3, 229lbs) and Vincent Jackson (6-5, 230lbs). Clearly size matters. The man ranked at #9 is Roddy White of Atlanta – listed at 6-0 and 211lbs. He’s become a clutch receiver for Matt Ryan – the original dynamic target prior to Julio Jones’ arrival. Hopkins compares favourably to White – who was drafted #27 overall in 2005. They’re likely make comparable forty times (White had a 4.47), they have similar size and range. However, Hopkins hasn’t shown any of the inconsistencies that dogged White’s early years in Atlanta before the light switched on.
The way you make up for a lack of size is playing above your stature. Be physical. Master your routes. Understand the offense. Find advantages elsewhere. When you listen to Hopkins conduct an interview, he’ll talk about (for example) exploiting a cover-2 and appears to be a student of the game. Despite the arrival of highly-recruited Sammy Watkins he never complained about a reduced work-load in 2011. Watkins left the LSU game after picking up an injury in Clemson’s first offensive series. That makes a 13-catch near-200 yard performance even more impressive against one of the best defensive teams in the SEC.
During the game ESPN’s sideline reporter Jeannine Edwards relayed a story about Hopkins being asked in high-school to make a list of targets for the year ahead. Apparently he’s continued this tradition throughout his career and has met every goal he set out to achieve. Supposedly his one remaining goal for the 2012 season is to become a first round pick in the NFL draft. It’s this kind of determination and focus that’ll have GM’s and coaches salivating when they sit down to speak with this guy. And doesn’t he just sound like a perfect compliment to a workaholic like Russell Wilson? You can almost imagine the pair working overtime throwing passes during the off-season. It’s a chemistry waiting to happen.
I appreciate the front office’s apparent penchant for size at the receiver position. There are a lot of jump-balls to be won in this offense. They coveted both Brandon Marshall and Vincent Jackson on the trade market and decided both moves were too expensive. Big Mike Williams was a feature in 2010 and 2011. Sidney Rice is 6-4. If they’re going to add another receiver, they may favour the size of a Cordarrelle Patterson or Brandon Coleman.
However, one of the reasons this team believed 5-11 Russell Wilson could be a starting NFL quarterback was due to the way he made up for a lack of size. His release point, hand size, throwing velocity, accuracy and mobility rendered it a moot point. Pete Carroll has talked about players needing to make up for a lack of elite physical qualities to warrant consideration. Hopkins answers the call with his hands, clutch playmaking ability, route running and intelligence on the field. And it’s not like 6-1 and a 4.45-4.50 forty yard dash is a major issue anyway. This team drafted a smaller receiver in Golden Tate who can still go up and make physical plays.
One thing I’ve learnt watching Russell Wilson in Seattle is to never underestimate a prospect who is determined to be great. Few players have that quality. Some are physically good enough to never require that aspect of their personality. Others are so driven, so zoned in on making themselves ‘great’. I get that impression from Hopkins.
Sources tell me tonight will be the final college game for DeAndre Hopkins/WR/Clemson as he will enter the draft….
Now that we know he’s going to turn pro – and what a way to bow out of college – it’s time he warranted serious consideration as a first round pick. The likes of Keenan Allen and Justin Hunter continue to appear in multiple mock drafts carrying first round grades, while Hopkins is nowhere to be seen. I’d be very suspicious of any mock not giving this guy serious first round consideration – especially behind those two players. For the record, he ended the 2012 season with 1405 receiving yards and 18 touchdowns. There’s going to be a lot of good receiving options in the late first round this year. Hopkins, Brandon Coleman, Cordarrelle Patterson, Markus Wheaton and others could all be available in that range. Stanford tight end Zach Ertz is another name to keep an eye on if he decides to turn pro. It’s perhaps another reason why the Seahawks would be better served addressing some of their pass-rushing issues in free agency to allow the front office to take advantage of the pass-catching talent available this year. Of course, there are other possible target positions in the first round. Tony Pauline confirmed today that Georgia’s brilliant linebacker Alec Ogletree will turn pro:
Have been told after much deliberation Alex Ogletree/LB/Georgia will enter the draft… — Tony Pauline (@TonyPauline) January 1, 2013
Ogletree’s final snap for Georgia was a sack – a fitting end for one of the more explosive defensive prospects entering the league in the last few years. It’s also difficult to look too far beyond Kansas State’s Arthur Brown, who will contest the Fiesta Bowl against Oregon on Thursday. Both players appear to be good fits for the WILL position in Seattle’s 4-3 under scheme.
Even so, it’s time to get excited about DeAndre Hopkins. He could be a name many more people are talking about by the time April comes around.
Seattle’s greatest need is at the three technique. No doubt what so ever. It’s absolutely crucial for this team that they find a way to create interior pressure. As good as the teams defense has been this season, they’re really only scratching the surface. There’s a lot of untapped potential – for pressure, sacks and most importantly – turnovers. For this team to keep improving even after an 11-5 regular season, they have to upgrade the three technique position.
My vote is still to pursue Randy Starks in free agency. The Dolphins have been unusually lax given that Jeff Ireland’s job is supposedly secure. They haven’t initiated any contract talks with key players such as Starks or left tackle Jake Long.
Presumably Long will be the priority. They’re not averse to big contract extensions – Cameron Wake signed a $49m deal in May. It’ll probably take an even bigger contract to re-commit to a pre-CBA #1 overall pick. Even so, Miami’s offensive line is bad enough without needing to search for another left tackle. As we saw with Mario Williams last year though, the structure of the franchise tag is making it expensive to maintain top-players drafted under the former rookie-structure. If they sign Long, it’s hard to imagine they’d be in a strong position to retain other key free agents.
Starks had an impressive year including five sacks and an interception. He’s the kind of penetrative force needed in Seattle, but he also plays the run particularly well. It’s no coincidence the Seahawks had their toughest day running the ball against the Dolphins interior of Starks and Paul Soliai. A lot of younger three-technique’s struggle to make the transition to the pro’s because by nature they’re undersized. If you’re average guard or tackle is +300lbs, a three-technique usually giving up 10-15lbs. Without the kind of unnatural power a player like Ndamukong Suh had coming into the league, a young, undersized tackle can often get engulfed. It’s no surprise that guys like Geno Atkins and Darnell Dockett play with as much attitude as they do speed.
Starks is 305lbs and has no such issues. He’s big, strong, plays with tremendous pad level and has violent hands. He’ll stunt blockers at the line and win 1vs1 battles against the run. He also has a terrific bull rush and enough explosion off the line to penetrate into the backfield. Starks also has the benefit of experience and it shows – he understands blocking schemes and adapts during games to remain effective (he had no issues against Seattle’s ZBS). He’s almost ideal for the ’4-3 under’ – not giving anything up against the run while being able to double up on the right side with Chris Clemons to collapse the pocket. He just turned 29 so a big contract seems unlikely. If Starks hits the market, a creative two or three-year deal would make a lot of sense. The Seahawks are unlikely to be his only suitor.
Henry Melton is another option and it’ll be interesting to see what happens in Chicago. Lovie Smith has been fired and that could lead to some schematic changes – although all of Chicago’s defensive talent is suited to an orthodox 4-3 system. If he hits the market he’ll likely command a hefty salary. The question is- how much of his production is manufactured playing with elite defensive talent? Teams constantly have to deal with Julius Peppers off the edge, has Melton benefited from that? Would he be able to replicate his success in a different environment to warrant a big outlay in terms of salary?
There aren’t many high-quality three-techniques in the league. Melton is one of the best, Atkins in Cincinnati is the clear #1. If the Seahawks want to solve this problem with a veteran presence, they’ll likely have to get the cheque book out.
Of course the one thing Atkins and Melton have in common is they’re both fourth round picks. Dockett was a third round pick. It’s a position that lends itself to mid-round value. As we’ve discussed on this blog several times this season, many of the first-round defensive tackles drafted in recent years haven’t lived up to expectations. The Seahawks have been prolific in their ability to find mid-round gems in the Carroll/Schneider era. They may feel confident enough to go down this route again. They took Jaye Howard in round four last year, perhaps believing he could bring similar value and fill this role. That move hasn’t worked out so far, but they could continue the search in the same kind of range in 2013. One name to keep an eye on is Kawann Short at Purdue. He mostly disappointed this year, blowing hot and cold and struggling to dominate games. However, he has the size and unnatural speed to feature in the role. His inconsistent play could lead to a fall – he might be available in the 2nd/3rd round range. Arizona State’s Will Sutton is another mid-round option after a productive 10-sack season. His lack of size and ability versus the run is a slight concern though.
Even so, I still maintain they’d be better off trying to add a Starks or Melton for security. The maximum effectiveness of the defense is at stake here. A legitimate interior pass rush would open up so many opportunities for the LEO (Chris Clemons/Bruce Irvin). It would allow the Seahawks to keep rushing four in base defense. It would create many more turnover opportunities for a talented group of linebackers and defensive backs. As good as Seattle’s defense has been this year, it could be even better. By quite some way, too.
There are other possible ways to improve the pass rush via the draft. Jason Jones is a free agent and it’s unclear whether he’ll be retained for 2013. If the Seahawks want a bigger defensive end who can be flexible while also playing inside on nickel and passing downs, Alex Okafor at Texas could be the answer. He dominated Oregon State at the Alamo Bowl (see tape above) recording 4.5 sacks. He’s about 6-4 and 270lbs but could probably get up to the 275-280lbs range. He’s too big for a LEO, but his upper body power and quick feet could make him ideal for the Jason Jones-role.
The biggest issue with Okafor is consistency. He had 8.5 sacks for Texas during the regular season but drifted in and out of games and struggled to make a lasting impact for a disappointing defense. A lot of big-name Texas prospects have flattered to deceive and prior to the bowl game, it appeared Okafor would go down that route as well. Tony Pauline recently graded him in the 3rd/4th round range, but his performance against the Beevers increases his chances of being a day two pick.
On a slightly different note, take the chance to watch Clemson receiver DeAndre Hopkins against LSU tonight in the Chick-fil-A Bowl. It appears he’ll be declaring for the draft and he’s a legitimate late first round option for any team looking to add a receiver:
Sources tell me tonight will be the final college game for DeAndre Hopkins/WR/Clemson as he will enter the draft….
Physically there’s a lot to like. He’s 6-6 with a 220lbs frame. Despite being so tall, he’s shown the ability to run away from defensive backs (see this 85-yard touchdown against Louisville). You don’t see many Brandon Coleman’s in the NFL.
So how come I have him falling to #26 overall in a mock draft? Simple really. He’s had only one year as a permanent starter with limited production in terms of yardage. We’ve come to celebrate receivers like Marqise Lee, Justin Blackmon and Michael Crabtree – putting up insane numbers on the road to Biletnikoff awards. All playing in high-power passing offenses with capable quarterbacks. That’s just what you’re expected to do these days. Despite the obvious potential with Coleman, some teams are going to be put off when they see 39 catches for the 2012 season and just 663 yards. He had only two 100-yard games for Rutgers this year – the second aided by that 85 yard touchdown I linked to earlier.
No other position in college football is impacted by scheme quite as much as the receiver position. Play for an air raid attack, reach 1200-1800 yards and ten scores? You’re likely to receive a nice boost to your draft stock. It’s helped players like Jacksonville’s Blackmon who – although talented – didn’t flash incredible physical qualities like Calvin Johnson or Julio Jones.
“You look at other schools across the country and it doesn’t seem like it’s a lot (his production). Look at West Virginia and what their two guys (Stedman Bailey, who has 23 touchdown catches, and Tavon Austin, who has 12) have done this year. One of them had four (touchdown receptions) in a game, and they had a couple of three-touchdown games. I guess it depends on where you play. So I’m not sure if I can compare it to anything.”
He’s right. There’s no point comparing stats. Although there’s no doubt some teams will. Demaryius Thomas is a good example of a player with superb physical qualities. However, he featured in Georgia Tech’s triple-option offense and questions were raised over his ability to work in a conventional system. He only had one year of big production. In the end he fell to the #22 overall pick in 2010 despite having physical qualities matching a top-fifteen pick (6-3, 224lbs, 4.50 forty yard dash). Give him a quarterback in Denver and suddenly he’s a top-ten receiver in the NFL. Seattle won’t have to wait to find their quarterback, and there’s no reason why Coleman can’t have similar success.
The question is – if Coleman does declare for the 2013 draft – which team is going to see beyond a lack of production and experience? Who is going to look past what a player hasn’t done or can’t do, and concentrate on what he can?
You have, in short, a roster whose beauty lies in how different it is. This also makes the Seahawks one difficult team to prepare for on Sundays.
“If you wanna point to the height of the corners or the quarterback, it goes to what we’ve looked for, and that really goes back to SC,” said Carroll, who coached the USC Trojans for nine years. “We’re looking for uniqueness in our players — the quality that separates them.”
That plays out in how the scouts and coaches are trained to think by the Seahawks. They’re told to break the football man’s natural inclination to find what a player can’t do well rather than what he can or does do well. It’s born there, in the Seahawks’ goal of identifying players by thinking outside the box — for instance, while (Bruce) Irvin’s troubled teenage years raised a fire-engine red flag for some teams, the Seahawks were amazed that he’d found his way out — and it’s nurtured in a system that accentuates the strengths of the incoming guys.
The Seahawks are constantly looking for unique qualities, and it wouldn’t get much more unique than a gangly 6-6 receiver whose best football is yet to come. As Breer testifies, they concentrate on what a player ‘can’ do. So what can Brandon Coleman do? He’s 6-6, so he’s capable of winning a lot of jump balls – something the Seahawks use a lot in their quick-strike offense. He can out-run much smaller defensive backs. He’s a hands catcher capable of pulling the ball out of the air. And more than anything else – he scores touchdowns. His ten scores this year equalled a school record. He can break that record when he takes on Virginia Tech tomorrow in the Russell Athletic Bowl.
This doesn’t mean you ignore some of the issues. For such a big player he could be more physical. There’s a level of consistency you’d like to see him reach (has the occasional drop). He’s not running a big route-tree in college. Even so – these are aspects you can work on. You can’t expect perfect receivers to be around in the late first round.
In many ways he looks ideal for the Seahawks offense. He’d offer a new dimension – a receiver with different skills to both Sidney Rice and Golden Tate. Coleman would offer a red zone threat and be a great target on those play action downfield passes into single coverage. I contest that the Seahawks aren’t necessarily looking for 1500 yard seasons from their wideouts. They’ll spread things around, run the football. The receivers might get two catches in a game, both for big plays. That’s the nature of the quick strike attack. And the two eligible players capable of adding to that quick-strike mentality in the draft will be Coleman and Tennessee’s Cordarrelle Patterson.
Pete Carroll appears to be switched on when it comes to trends in the league. He helped develop the move to bigger cornerbacks. He studied the use of the read-option in Washington and how that helped Robert Griffin III have such an early impact for the Redskins. At a time when the league was all about big yardage in the passing game, Carroll concentrated on the run – just as several other teams followed this example. Ever since he took over in 2010, the Seahawks have seemingly been ahead of the curve.
Having helped develop the big cornerback trend, he may have to come up with an answer on offense too. Facing 6-3 cornerbacks these days? Perhaps the answer is to draft a 6-6 receiver who can run a 4.5 and win jump balls?
Going back to the yardage issue, here’s a few numbers to consider when judging Coleman. A.J. Green never had double figure touchdowns in a season (highest he had was nine in 2010). Green also never topped 1000 yards at Georgia in a single season. In Julio Jones’ second season as a starter in Alabama, he had 596 yards and four touchdowns. Jones also never reached double figures for touchdowns in a single season. It took Calvin Johnson until his final year at Georgia Tech to top 1000 yards and double figures for touchdowns. In Johnson’s first two years as a starter, he averaged 6.5 touchdowns a year and just over 800 yards.
Suddenly, a ten touchdown season with a game to go doesn’t appear so bad for Coleman given this is his first full year as a starter.
Will he declare? He recently commented he was leaning towards returning to college. Considering most people weren’t even sure he was undecided, this is perhaps a greater development for those hoping to see him in the NFL. It had been assumed he’d return for further seasoning. It appears he’s leaving the door open – and so he should. A big bowl performance could move him towards the NFL.
There are benefits to returning – namely further experience on the field as a starter. However, he’ll need to decide whether he’s just delaying the inevitable. It may be that he has to play in a pro-offense with pro-coaching before he truly takes the next step. There’s no guarantee that staying at Rutgers will automatically mean improved numbers or consistency next year. It’s not like the Scarlet Knights are suddenly going to become an up-tempo passing team. If his main priority is to improve as a player rather than success in college, he might be better off in the NFL.
Finding a tall, explosive receiver to add to the offense is arguably the teams biggest need after an upgrade at the three technique. If Brandon Coleman does turn pro, there’s a good chance he’ll be on this teams radar.
In my last mock draft, I had Arthur Brown (LB, Kansas State) going to the Seahawks. He’s a sideline-to-sideline linebacker who will clock a time in the 4.4′s or 4.5′s at the combine. And I think he’s ideal for the teams WILL position.
This isn’t taking anything away from Malcolm Smith, who might be on his way to winning the gig on a permanent basis. He’s looked very accomplished in two starts so far and he also has 4.4 speed and great familiarity with the system. He’s one of the few ex-USC guys to be drafted by Pete Carroll and clearly they believe he has a future on the team. His touchdown on special teams against Arizona was just reward for his efforts spelling the injured Leroy Hill.
However, unless he keeps the job for the rest of the year and continues to shine (Hill could return against Buffalo), I think we have to look at this position as an area where the team might spend an early draft pick next April.
I’m not afraid to admit I’m still learning what Carroll’s team is trying to do on both sides of the ball. I’ve looked closer than ever before this year, because I didn’t like how we handled the draft last season. We spent a lot of time trying to piece a pass rusher into the existing defense – and we were right to focus on that position as it turns out. However, we were looking at turning a DE or rush LB into a SAM and moving K.J. Wright inside. And that was clearly never the idea. In hindsight it makes perfect sense that they actually looked to replace Raheem Brock. We were maybe distracted by the specialist nature of that role, yet there was a stand-out ‘specialist’ available in the 2012 draft. If we’d worked this out last season, we might’ve been able to spend more time on Bruce Irvin after pumping his tires at the start of the year.
I need to highlight and learn from mistakes to make this a better blog. That was a big one.
I’ve watched the defense and attempted to understand the 4-3 under concepts a little better this year. It’s why I think upgrading the three technique is a big priority. It’s why I think they can get better at the WILL too. Alan Branch ticks two of the boxes required for his role at the three – he eats space, he can take on interior lineman and he plays well against the run. However, he doesn’t offer much penetration or pass rush. Until the Seahawks get pressure inside at that position, their base defense will struggle to have an impact when they only rush four. Which is most of the time.
Greater pressure from the three technique and therefore an improved overall pass rush ultimately means you can keep the linebackers in playmaking positions and you’ll get more out of the LEO concept. Red Bryant’s role in the team is still underrated. The Seahawks need size at the five technique to compensate for doubling up on the opposite side. A lot of the time Bryant has to take on two blockers (right guard/tackle). The fact the Seahawks aren’t dominated on the right side when the opposition runs the ball is credit to Bryant. In fact, teams try and avoid him. Brandon Mebane plays over the center. This puts you in a position to orchestrate 1v1 match-ups for the three and the LEO. It should be very hard to defend on that side, but you need that interior push to collapse the pocket. That’s when the speed off the edge will hurt an offense. Finding someone to collapse the pocket should be a priority for this team. If Miami’s Randy Starks reaches free agency and the price is affordable, he would be ideal for this role.
The Seahawks have upgraded two of the three linebacker positions to the scheme Carroll wants to run. K.J. Wright helps set the edge as the SAM, keeps contain and he can drop. Bobby Wagner is already showing just how adept he is to reading situations, flowing to the football and making plays. It’s no surprise that as the season’s progressed, he’s started to make more impact plays.
Carroll inherited Leroy Hill and he’s done a good job in the last three years. It’s easy to forget he was #2 for sacks last season – a testament to the lack of pass rush given he wasn’t asked to do a lot of rushing. He’s a good enough athlete to manage the WILL in this scheme but he’s not quite as explosive these days. There have been a few times when he’s located the ball and been first to make a key play. Ultimately though, it’s an area where the Seahawks can get faster with greater impact.
This is where Brown comes into play.
The video above shows a game from 2011 when Kansas State beat Robert Griffin III’s Baylor in the Big-12. By now you’re aware of RGIII elusive nature and his athleticism. I’d recommend watching the video to see how Brown matches up.
Kansas State’s defense has some similarities to Seattle’s. They have a lot of 4-3 under looks with a front four, a SAM at the LOS and two inside linebackers. Brown is the heart of the defense and appears to make a lot of calls. Bobby Wagner has nailed the MIKE position with his play this year, but it wouldn’t be much of an ask to switch Brown to the WILL. He’s got the speed. He’s got the field IQ. And he reacts quickly to swarm to the ball carrier.
Seattle’s defense isn’t asking the MIKE or WILL to rush the passer. They aren’t asking much of the SAM in that sense either. They want to create pressure with four rushers more often than not. My theory is it’s part of Pete Carroll’s determination to create turnovers. Whenever you can press with just four lineman, you’re going to have success. You’ve got more guys in coverage and your linebackers can read the situation, whether it’s reaching for a tipped pass, undercutting a route, reading a quarterback’s eyes or blowing up a run.
As much as I like Alec Ogletree’s athleticism and upside, Brown may be an equally good fit for this scheme. As a pure roamer, he’s top-notch. He’s busier, reading a play every second of the way and using instinct. He cuts through traffic well, avoiding blocks and closing quickly. For a guy who’s only 6-0 and around 225-230lbs, he takes on blockers well against the run. And like Ogletree, he’s got that sheer speed to run from sideline-to-sideline to make a play.
The Seahawks have had issues in some games defending third down. Brown can sniff out underneath routes by tracking running backs, but he’s also very good at floating at the second level and then reacting. Seattle has taken Leroy Hill off the field on a lot of third downs to play nickel, but with Brown on the roster I’d be tempted to keep him in either in a base look or instead of K.J. Wright. He’d be that much of an asset.
He does have some issues. At his size he’ll get engulfed sometimes against bigger lineman. You have to expect that. But then the Seahawks aren’t asking their linebackers to get too involved at the LOS. Can he cover a big tight end? We’ll see about that. He can get overly aggressive and make slight errors (missed tackles, overshooting his angle). There are times when – like a lot of college defenders these days – he goes for the glancing blow rather than the wrap-up tackle. Apart from that, I don’t see much to complain about.
In fact the biggest concern I have has nothing to do with on-the-field tape. It’s his shy nature. His back-story is fairly interesting. He started his college career at Miami as a big-time recruit. All the top schools wanted him, including Pete Carroll, Ken Norton Jr and USC. Carroll apparently told a representative of the Brown family that he was the best linebacker “he’d seen in seven years.” Brown chose the ‘Canes, seemingly due to their reputation as Linebacker-U. It never worked out, he struggled on the field and was on the brink of being labelled a bust.
Yet most of all, it seems being away from his family was the hardest obstacle to manoeuvre. They’re a close unit. His parents lost their first child before the age of 2. Brown and his brother Bryce (now a starting running back in Philadelphia) were seen as ‘miracles’. So much so, the elder brother was named after his father. Arthur Brown Junior. That’s his full name. Yet it took until his senior year to raise the possibility of having ‘Jr’ added to his jersey at Kansas State.
That made me so happy,” Brown said. “I have always wanted to play with my full name on my jersey. It’s a great way to honor my father and my whole family. But, for whatever reason, I never asked. I was afraid they would say no. I guess I just feel at home here. It turned out to be a really simple thing.”
A family man. But unusually lacking in confidence for such a talented athlete.
The desire to be closer to home certainly factored into Brown’s transfer to K-State.
“Coming out of high school I really didn’t know the value of family and staying connected to your life support,’’ Brown said. “Just those two years away helped me develop an appreciation for my family.’’
Nobody will mark this down as a major negative in terms of his character. However, I am a little concerned that being so far away from his family could be an issue. Seattle is a long way away. Both he and brother Bryce transferred from colleges (Miami/Tennessee) to move ‘back home’ and join Kansas State. Being able to adapt, remain focused and perform to the best of your abilities is crucial. Will Brown get homesick? It’s not something we can get enough information on to call a negative. But it is something I’d be looking into as a member of a personal department.
Pete Carroll will already know a lot about this guy, an edge he’s been able to exploit with a few players coming into the league already. And he may already know just how much of an issue this is (or isn’t). But I wanted to note it nonetheless. Having played at Kansas State, there aren’t many places further away than Seattle.
Assuming this isn’t a problem, Brown could be a tremendous addition to this defense. Some teams will be put off by his size. Not a lot of other blogs or pundits are talking about him as a first or even a second round pick. Yet we know Pete Carroll doesn’t care much for what other people think. He liked this guy coming into the college ranks. He might be checking him out again in the off-season and he could be on this teams radar.
Adding to the mystery is the variety with which Seattle has chosen wide-outs during the Carroll/Schneider era. They looked at big pass-catchers (Brandon Marshall, Vincent Jackson) while utilising Mike Williams (6-5) as a primary receiver in 2010. He was essentially replaced by Sidney Rice (6-4). On the other hand, they spent a second round pick on Golden Tate (5-10) and he’s since developed into an integral part of the offense. Doug Baldwin (5-10) has also featured heavily as a third-down target, while others such as Charly Martin (6-1), Jermaine Kears (6-2), Braylon Edwards (6-3), Terrell Owens (6-3) and Ben Obomanu (6-1) have seen time on the field.
They’ve also spent big on the tight end position, investing millions in Zach Miller while also bringing along USC-grown Anthony McCoy. Kellen Winslow essentially had a ‘trial’ during pre-season and Evan Moore has taken some snaps after replacing Winslow on the roster. Seattle likes to use 2TE sets and we could see more of that implemented into the offense going forward.
There’s a variety of shapes and sizes there, making it hard to pin-down what the Seahawks might look for if they want to draft another target for Russell Wilson. Clearly, to me at least, they need to add some depth. Why else were they playing around with T.O.? Why else were they looking at Winslow and keeping Braylon Edwards on the roster until this week? There’s room for at least one more legit target and it was one of the few need areas the front office were unable to solve during the 2012 off-season.
Fortunately, the 2013 class looks rich in depth if not elite talent. There’s no A.J. Green or Julio Jones, but there’s a lot of talent to be had in the late first or second round. Working out who might interest the Seahawks is the hard part, especially since this is a front office that likes to keep you guessing.
Let’s go through some of the options…
Brandon Coleman (WR, Rutgers)
Size: 6-6, 225lbs
Speed: Capable of running away from defenders. Certainly above average for his size
Notes: Coleman has Megatron-type potential and if he declares for the 2013 draft, he has as much chance as anyone to crack the top-ten. He could be a superstar at receiver.
DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Clemson)
Size: 6-1, 200lbs
Speed: Not elite by any means and he won’t run away from defensive backs on a deep route. Still quicker than fast and very sharp getting into his breaks.
Notes: Hopkins isn’t a physically dominating player, but he’s one of the smoothest receivers you’ll ever meet. He runs routes effortlessly, understands the Clemson offense and is Mr. Consistent. Fantastic production in 2012.
Markus Wheaton (WR, Oregon State)
Size: 5-11, 185lbs
Speed: He beat DeAnthony Thomas in a 100m race this year. Wheaton’s speed is one of his greatest assets.
Notes: Despite lacking size he’s very competitive and willing to get involved as a blocker. He’s a consistent playmaker and a big YAC threat. Compares very well to Pittsburgh’s Mike Wallace.
Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee)
Size: 6-3, 205lbs
Speed: He could run a 4.3 at the combine.
Notes: X-factor player who scores cheap points. He’ll be an instant threat as a kick returner. He’s also inconsistent and undercooked. Still, only Brandon Coleman has more upside.
Zach Ertz (TE, Stanford)
Size: 6-6, 252lbs
Speed: As you’d expect for a tight end.
Notes: I’ve seen some people suggest he’s not a great run blocker, something I can’t agree with. Ertz is the total package at tight end and can stay on the field for any play call.
Tavon Austin (WR, West Virginia)
Size: 5-8, 173lbs
Speed: Maybe even quicker than Markus Wheaton. He shifts through the gears with ease.
Notes: Size will concern some people, but Austin’s speed will intrigue others. He’ll need a package of plays and he goes beyond conventional thinking – but he’s fun to watch and scores touchdowns.
Robert Woods (WR, USC)
Size: 6-1, 190lbs
Speed: He doesn’t have explosive speed, but he has other qualities that make up for it.
Notes: Woods has improved his consistency this year, he’s competitive and chirpy and can make big plays with the ball in his hands. He’s underrated due to a lack of size.
Keenan Allen (WR, California)
Size: 6-3, 206lbs
Speed: He ran in the 4.5′s and 4.6′s at high school and has since added 20lbs. This could be an issue.
Notes: Allen lacks balance and control, he’s also not a quick receiver. On the plus side, he has decent size and plays with real intensity.
Justin Hunter (WR, Tennessee)
Size: 6-4, 205lbs
Speed: It’s good enough.
Notes: He has a playing style and frame similar to A.J. Green. But yeah, he isn’t A.J. Green.
Tyler Eifert (TE, Notre Dame)
Size: 6-6, 251lbs
Speed: What you’d expect from a tight end.
Notes: He’s not a great blocker. He’ll go in the same kind of range as John Carlson and Kyle Rudolph.
This is just a sample, you could throw other names into the mix too. I’m not crazy about Terrance Williams at Baylor as an early pick which is why I left him out.
From the group, I think you can make a case for all. The Seahawks have looked for size at receiver and seem to like players who can win jump balls. When they drafted Golden Tate they cited his ability to compete for the ball in the air despite his size, and we’ve seen evidence of that this season.
At the same time, this is a quick-hitting passing offense that likes to take shots on play action. Getting separation downfield will help those big plays come off more often. Tate and Sidney Rice are no slouches, but there’s no true burner on the team and that’s maybe something they’ll look for regardless of size.
I also think they’d like to run a lot more 2TE sets similar to what we see at Stanford in the PAC-12. Anthony McCoy keeps showing flashes of quality that make you want to believe he can step up and become more of a consistent feature. But the fact is, the Seahawks are still using Zach Miller mostly for blocking and they’re not getting a great deal of production from the #2. A guy like Zach Ertz – who blocks as well as Miller and is a similar threat as a receiver – could help that situation and open up the offense. If you can use a formation that makes it look like you’ll run more often then not, the play action game will really threaten.
I’ll give you my take.
I like Markus Wheaton, DeAndre Hopkins and Robert Woods. A lot. And I think they’d find a way to be productive for this offense. I also think there’s a chance this team would entertain any of the three. Wheaton has the speed, Hopkins the polish and Woods the connection with Pete Carroll. However, I think three players stand out more than any others here.
Brandon Coleman could be a star in this league. He has the size and reach to win jump balls and he’s destined to be a real threat in the red zone. How do you over throw a 6-6 receiver with his wingspan? He’s an exceptionally big target with surprising speed. Look for any highlights of this guy and you’ll see him running away from defensive backs. Click here to see his 85-yard touchdown run against Louisville. He’s a 4.5 runner at 6-6 with YAC potential and I think he can run deep routes. If he declares – and he’s not indicated either way what his intentions are – then I suspect he’ll be rated very highly. A lack of pure production at Rutgers could push him into Seattle’s path. Stranger things have happened. Demaryius Thomas would’ve been a much earlier pick had he not played in the triple-option at Georgia Tech.
Zach Ertz would really open up Seattle’s offense. You could book-end Ertz with Zach Miller, play two receivers and give a run-look on most downs. It’ll give linebackers nightmares wondering whether they need to plug gaps against Mashawn Lynch or get into coverage to monitor two productive tight ends. This would probably keep things honest for Russell Wilson while also buying him time in the pocket. And he’d also have two reliable check-down options on third down – something that was an issue when Doug Baldwin was injured. The Seahawks showed a lot of interest on Coby Fleener’s pro-day last off-season. For me, Ertz is a superior player.
Cordarrelle Patterson is a pure difference maker. There aren’t many guys at 6-3/6-4 with his run-away speed and playmaking quality. He can score cheap points, change momentum and keep defenses guessing. Sure, he’s raw and needs to iron out a few kinks. He also has explosive ability to make big plays. And as we’ve seen this year more than any other, the Seahawks want quick strikes in their passing game. They seem to want to get defenses committing to the run only to beat them down field on play action. They want guys who can work within a trick play or package to get things rolling. Patterson might be one or two years away from being a consistent player you can rely on, but any time he’s on the field – even in year one – he’s a threat to score. And the Seahawks are a good enough team these days to consider a luxury like that. They’ve also shown they aren’t afraid to draft former JUCO prospects in round one (James Carpenter, Bruce Irvin).
This isn’t me committing to these three or saying the others are unlikely. I could sit here and make a case for drafting any of these guys. And as I mentioned, I have first round grades on Wheaton, Hopkins and Woods. I’m not totally convinced the Seahawks will target receivers in the first round, given John Schneider’s Green Bay background where they consistently hit on players taken in the second round. Yet I’m also not convinced they’ll avoid the position ‘just because’. It’s a need. And if value meets need in round one, there’s every chance they’ll make a move here.
I’ve included a video below for anyone wanting to learn more about Brandon Coleman. I wrote a piece about his potential a few weeks ago (click here) but the video has some background on his high-school recruitment and character.
Seahawks Draft Blog was created in 2008, supplying fans of college football, the Seattle Seahawks and the NFL Draft with daily analysis and conversation.
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Kip Earlywine
Began writing for Seahawks Draft Blog in 2010, quickly becoming a popular contributor. Kip was the only guy with a man crush on Russell Wilson before John Schneider. Well, maybe.
