Category: Scouting Report (Page 4 of 38)

Rose Bowl review: Isaiah Wynn is really underrated

When I published the top-50 2018 eligible prospects piece on Sunday, Georgia left tackle Isaiah Wynn was included. I haven’t done a specific piece on him because we’ve been focusing on other positions. Wynn’s performance in the Rose Bowl was so good, he warrants extra attention today.

I’m fairly confident he’s going to go in round two as an absolute worst case scenario. There’s a chance he sneaks into the first.

At around 6-2 and 300lbs he’s likely going to move inside to guard. Tackle experience at a high level in college will be useful though — and he’ll always have the ability to cover at tackle if needed.

It’s difficult to find flaws in his game.

For starters he’s a true mauler. His hand placement is really good — he delivers a strong jab to the defender and just controls his man. Wynn’s footwork and balance are really good and he rarely loses ground. You don’t see him bull-rushed into the backfield or knocked back. He’s very measured, engages and finishes.

He’s tough and will hand fight to win a battle if required. He’s adept at picking up stunts. Oklahoma were happy to feign the edge rush and have a linebacker make a late move. Wynn identified this and didn’t overcommit. He was prepared and ready and easily passed off the DE to lock onto the new rusher.

His agility and athleticism aren’t going to see him run a 4.90 at the combine and he’s not Lane Johnson. I suspect he won’t be a workout warrior and that’s what might limit his stock. Whatever limitations he might possibly have won’t matter as much when he moves inside. He barely ever loses control, position or leverage. His height and size work to his advantage in that regard. It’s difficult to get under his pads. I’ve not seen one play to date where he overextends — he doesn’t lunge and get himself into trouble. He’s never rattled.

On Nick Chubb’s first big run against Oklahoma, Wynn pulled to the outside and sealed the edge. He had to locate his blocker on the move, engage and finish. Chubb achieved a big gain as a consequence. He’s comfortable on the move and it’s a part of his game that could become even more of a factor at the next level.

This isn’t a great class for offensive tackles. It’s a better class for interior linemen. Nelson, Price and Wynn should go early and Arkansas’ Frank Ragnow (a guard or center) and Washington’s Coleman Shelton (a center) won’t be far behind.

The Seahawks appear likely to draft a running back early. If they’re able to acquire another early pick in the first or second round range — they might be willing to consider someone like Wynn too.

Thoughts on the other Georgia prospects

The Rose Bowl wasn’t just a fantastically entertaining game of football, it was loaded with NFL talent. I want to focus on the Georgia prospects.

Roquan Smith (LB)
After a quiet first half with Oklahoma’s offense rolling, Smith really stepped up his game after half time. He had two fierce, punishing tackles — stone-walling the ball carrier at the point of impact. One tackle possibly denied a touchdown, the other a first down:

He timed a blitz perfectly up the middle with 11:05 left in the third quarter, showing great closing speed and acceleration to force Baker Mayfield’s eyes down. Smith easily skipped by the running back who stayed in to protect, moved Mayfield off the spot and sent him right into the arms of Lorenzo Carter.

Smith flew around the field in the second half. He frequently had an angle on Mayfield when he moved out of the pocket and maybe spied him a few times. He’s not the biggest (6-1, 225lbs) so his workout will be important. There’s evidence to suggest he’s going to test rather well. Look at his closing speed and finish with the tackle:

Lorenzo Carter (LB, Georgia)
I’ve watched a lot of Carter this season and he’s the one player I’ve really struggled to get a feel for. How good is he? For large stretches in games he doesn’t have much impact. Yet in virtually every Georgia game I watched in 2017, he would still make at least one big play.

The Rose Bowl was an interesting watch. Georgia had him lined up in coverage against Mark Andrews the tight end. Andrews is a little bit overrated as a prospect. He gets open on the more basic routes but isn’t a special athlete and he’s not much of a blocker. Oklahoma tried to run the same play to Andrews twice in this game — one throw hit the mark, Georgia learned their lesson the second time and picked off Mayfield.

Carter jolted Andrews back a few times when they matched up in the run — but as noted, Andrews isn’t much of a blocker. In coverage Andrews had the beating of Carter on a couple of occasions — but it’s a bit of a mismatch overall.

There was one play where Carter did a really good job in coverage, albeit in an unorthodox way. Oklahoma tried to use the running back on a wheel route and Carter was able to, quite subtly, get in the way and disrupt the route. He identified quickly what they were trying to do. Mayfield wanted to throw the ball to the right sideline but saw it wasn’t on, tried to scramble to the left and took a big sack.

Carter recorded a sack in the game but that was mostly down to Roquan Smith. Both players blitzed up the middle. Carter was initially held up but Smith got into the backfield to move Mayfield off the spot. Carter cleaned up.

His big play though was vitally important and possibly the most decisive in the game. In overtime Oklahoma were forced to kick a field goal to go three points ahead. Carter leapt from the line of scrimmage and at full extension got a fingertip to the ball. It was an outstanding, athletic play. For a player measuring at about 6-4 and 242lbs, it was an incredible jump:

He should perform well in the vertical at the combine. Sony Michel scored a touchdown to win the game moments later.

Carter’s potential is to be a Bruce Irvin type. He’s not the pass rusher Irvin was at West Virginia but he might be better suited to an orthodox linebacker role, while still acting as a rusher for passing downs.

Nick Chubb and Sony Michel (RB)

Both Chubb and Michel saved their best performances of the season for the most important game. They’ve both enjoyed a productive year but they took it to another level here. The only blip was Michel’s fumble returned for a touchdown in the second half.

I did a feature piece on Chubb in November, noting he could still go in the first round. There’s no disputing his potential and talent. Chubb had one of the all-time great workouts at the Nike SPARQ combine in 2013:

Height — 5-10
Weight — 217lbs
Forty yard dash — 4.47
Vertical — 40 inches
Short shuttle — 4.12
SPARQ — 143.91

He is basically a Christine Michael-level athlete.

Without the serious knee injury he suffered in 2015, he would’ve been a high first round pick. Based on what we saw at the Rose Bowl, he’s back to his best. Now we just need to see how he tests. How much juice, if any, has he lost? And what do the medicals say at the combine?

If everything checks out, Chubb will undoubtedly be on Seattle’s radar. He fits their physical profile perfectly (5-10, 228lbs), he’s an extremely explosive athlete and he’s as tough as they come. His running style is physical and sets the tone. He also has the ability to break off big runs.

Despite the athletic comparisons to Christine Michael, Chubb is an incredibly serious individual. He’s all business. His interviews are among the most boring you’ll hear. That just adds to the intrigue. He’s all about football.

Watch this:

I suspect this is what Pete Carroll is looking for. That doesn’t mean the Seahawks are going to be all-in on Nick Chubb. This is a fantastic running back class. We’ve already talked up the quality of Damien Harris, Ronald Jones II and Kerryon Johnson too. Any of those three — and a cluster of others — could interest the Seahawks.

Yet there’s no doubting Chubb fits their prototype and he could easily be a player they consider with their first pick.

(A quick note — Kerryon Johnson announced his decision to turn pro yesterday. Tony Pauline reports Ronald Jones II will make the same decision. The other Auburn runner, Kamryn Pettway, missed most of 2017 but also announced he’s turning pro and could be a day-three bargain).

As for Michel, he’s an interesting partner. If you could insert Chubb, Michel and Wynn into the Seahawks offense for next season, they’d probably see a decent upturn in production. Chubb and Michel are college football’s answer to Ingram and Kamara. Michel probably isn’t the same kind of athlete as Kamara — but they compliment each other in the same way.

Chubb is the more natural ‘born to be a running back’ type. Michel is quicker and more of a factor in the passing game. Yet he showed in this contest why he’s such a dynamic X-factor. Depending on Chubb’s health, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that Michel is the first off the board.

He scored a 75-yard touchdown against Oklahoma. In fairness it was a huge open running lane he exploited — but the acceleration he showed to finish was impressive.

Here’s the game winner:

He’s patient to work to the edge, find the gap and then finishes.

Michel isn’t just a player who works well in space or excels in the passing game. He can show toughness and provide some of the inside running to keep things balanced. He’s 5-10 and 220lbs so he’s not small by any stretch. He too fits Seattle’s size profile. They might be willing to consider him as a compliment to Chris Carson.

Both players could be off the board by the time round two concludes.

Javon Wims (WR, Georgia)

Wims is a player we’ve talked about a few times during the season. He really emerged as Georgia’s go-to target in the passing game. Every week he seemed to make a few big plays.

He has seven touchdowns now and 704 yards. Considering he’s working with a true-freshman quarterback, his numbers are quite impressive. Before this season he’d barely featured for Georgia. He saved his best play for his Senior year.

Wims might’ve played himself into the middle rounds, which is a shame. Originally I’d hoped he might last into day three and make a nice project. He’s 6-4 and 215lbs and could provide the kind of dynamic big outside target the Seahawks have lacked over the years.

The back-shoulder fade has been his best friend but he’s also developed into a key red-zone threat and he does well high-pointing the football. He sometimes produces a nice check down option settling over the middle and he can separate on the shorter routes. He’s at his best, however, working the red line to make big plays.

Wims is still a bit underrated and he’s helped provide the balance Georgia’s offense requires to compliment their dynamic duo at running back. Look at the video below. Wims has become enough of a threat that Georgia can use him as a decoy to exploit Sony Michel in the passing game:

And this is what he does in the red zone:

There’s no replay in the clip above but it was a difficult catch under pressure.

Some people might not like the fact it’s two SEC teams in the National Championship game this week. For me, it’s the perfect final for Seahawks fans. Four interesting running backs (Damien Harris, Bo Scarborough, Nick Chubb and Sony Michel) a ton of defensive talent on both rosters and some good O-liners and receivers too. It’s a dream for Seahawks fans ready and willing to look ahead to the draft.

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Pete Carroll: Running back “a big focal point”

Pete Carroll wants to add to the running back position.

That was my big takeaway from his two media appearances today — firstly with Brock and Salk on 710 ESPN and then with reporters in his usual press conference.

We have a real formula (for) how we win” stated Carroll. “We’ve been unable the last two years to incorporate a major aspect of that… (it) is to run the football the way we want to run.”

He went on to highlight the resurgence of teams like the Rams, the Saints, the Eagles and the Vikings. Many of the teams in the playoffs are those capable of providing balance on offense.

The Seahawks haven’t had that balance for two seasons. They haven’t been able to run the ball effectively.

In November I wrote a piece titled, ‘Marshawn Lynch shaped hole still gaping in Seattle’. It was clear, I think, even in 2014 when Lynch was still helping the team, that replacing him was going to be the greatest challenge John Schneider and Pete Carroll faced. They either had to find gold somehow as they did drafting Russell Wilson in round three — or it was going to take an early round pick like the ones spent on Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott and Leonard Fournette.

They’re still looking for a guy they crave to feature. A player they can rely on — to provide the tough yards, durability and consistency. It appeared Chris Carson could be that guy. He still could be. You can’t rely on that, however. He only managed a handful of games as a rookie.

So the search has to continue.

Like the Saints and Rams, Carroll believes Seattle can change their fortunes by running effectively:

The critical guys I think are the runners. The runners need to come back to life to us. And that’s Chris Carson and C.J. (Prosise) and Mike (Davis) coming back and whoever else can be part of that thing. J.D. McKissic was a really good positive aspect of our team this year and we need to make that position more competitive. That’s going to be one that we’re focused on because of the durability issues that we’ve faced the last two seasons.”

Carroll later said they would add to the runners, asking, “Who can we add to make it more competitive?” and stating, again, it would be “a big focal point“.

It was particularly interesting when Brock Huard pushed Carroll on the situation. Huard pulled no punches, laying out his concerns about the running game:

“Can you understand from me in this seat or a fan listening when saying, ‘Chris Carson?’ and C.J. — C.J.’s not been able to stay healthy so I can’t count on C.J. and a fan would say, ‘Chris looked really dynamic in the pre-season but I don’t know…’

We’ve gone from Christine Michael to Chris and Rawls and Eddie Lacy and there’s just been so much turnover at that position that a fan, I think, has a hard time saying, ‘man if Chris Carson were running behind that line in the season and with some of the blocking we watched Sunday, that he would be dynamic and be able to close that loop’.”

Carroll’s response?

I think it’s more impacting than you know

Carroll went on to admit the O-line could’ve been better up front. Yet it’s the sentence above I found most telling. He’s essentially spelling out the importance of a quality running back. When Carson was healthy, he ran effectively. He averaged 4.2 YPC and that’s when Rees Odhiambo was at left tackle, not Duane Brown.

They need more at the position. It’s not a cure-all to the problem. The offensive line does need to continue to make progress. They might add a veteran O-liner or two again, as they did a year ago.

But ultimately they need to find their answer to what LA has with Todd Gurley or New Orleans with Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara.

Carroll’s end of season press conferences have provided a good insight into what the team is planning for the draft and free agency.

A year ago Carroll listed the secondary, young depth at linebacker and the O-line as priorities. The Seahawks spent multiple picks on defensive backs and spent a second rounder on Ethan Pocic while adding Luke Joeckel and Oday Aboushi in free agency.

They brought in several linebackers to provide depth.

Before the 2011 season the focus was on improving the running game (they drafted James Carpenter and John Moffitt and signed Robert Gallery). In 2012 the target was speed in the front seven (they drafted Bruce Irvin and Bobby Wagner). In 2013 it was touchdown makers (enter Percy Harvin and Christine Michael with their first two picks).

The comments about the running back position today are enlightening. They’re also not that surprising. There’s a reason why we’ve been talking about college running backs for weeks. It’s also a position of strength and depth in the 2018 draft. This is one of those times where need matches availability perfectly.

The Seahawks don’t have to spend the #18 pick on a running back. They might acquire picks in rounds 2-3, they might trade down in round one. Whatever they do, they’re going to be able to find a running back (or two) that they like.

When I put together an early top-50 for 2018 list on Sunday, ten running backs were listed. That’s ten prospects potentially going before the end of round two. It’s not unrealistic. Some might drop into round three. Alvin Kamara did after all. It speaks to the depth at the position though — and the options available to the Seahawks.

They won’t have a shot at Saquon Barkley but the rest could all be in range. They might wish to consider Nick Chubb, Damien Harris or Ronald Jones II with their first pick. They could find a way to get into round two and look at Sony Michel, Royce Freeman or Kerryon Johnson.

There will be options later in the draft too. It feels like a class where adding two running backs would be a wise move. Take advantage of the depth.

If they had their second and third round picks, they might be more inclined to wait. With only one pick currently — even if they trade down — it feels likely running back will be an early-ish target in the draft.

That’s perhaps backed up by Carroll’s comments later on in his two media appearances. He not only spoke about the positive impact of consistency on the offensive line — he also discussed the “new nucleus” emerging with the likes of Delano Hill, Tedric Thompson, Bradley McDougald and others. He said he’d “love to have” Byron Maxwell back and said he was “really excited” about Dion Jordan — a player who could be a “legitimate factor” in 2018.

Change is imminent on the defense. Too many well sourced reporters are talking about it. Michael Bennett admits he doesn’t think he’ll be back. Carroll suitably dodged a question about Earl Thomas returning, opting to answer by saying he’d had a great season.

Most of the change might come from within. They do have some pieces. Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright will return for sure. Frank Clark and Jarran Reed have become important players while Naz Jones had a great rookie season. Sheldon Richardson could still return while Shaq Griffin, Maxwell, McDougald and Justin Coleman impressed at various points.

A younger, cheaper defense appears to be on the cards. A new era, so to speak.

And that could mean more investment and greater expense on the offense.

That’s not to say they won’t add to the new core on defense. There are some very appealing defensive players eligible for 2018. Carroll’s words today were revealing, however. He knows he needs to repair his running game. They can’t continue to struggle there for a third straight year.

Fixing the run has to be — and will be — a priority.

If you missed it earlier I posted a piece on the recent history of the #18 pick. Check it out by clicking here. Sometimes I will be posting multiple posts in a day, so if you want to follow along click the ‘HOME’ tab in the title bar and scroll down.

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Strength of the draft & best ten players for 2018

Tremaine Edmunds is without doubt one of the best players eligible for the 2018 draft

What is the strength of the 2018 draft?

It’s still early but increasingly it’s looking like the following positions:

Defensive front seven
Running back
Quarterback

All three areas contain depth and first round talent.

There are numerous potential first round picks at defensive line and linebacker. Bradley Chubb could/should be the first defensive player drafted. Clelin Ferrell and Vita Vea won’t last long either. Tim Settle, if he declares, is another big talent. The depth is significant too with Christian Wilkins, Taven Bryan, Derrick Nnadi, Maurice Hurst, Harrison Phillips and Da’Ron Payne all possible top-50 types.

The depth at DE/EDGE isn’t quite as good but there are a few names that jump out including Austin Bryant and Marcus Davenport. Arden Key is talented but with baggage while Harold Landry is quick but had a fairly disappointing season.

The linebacker group is highlighted by Virginia Tech’s brilliant Tremaine Edmunds. He is legitimately one of the best players eligible for 2018. He should be the first linebacker taken if he declares with Leighton Vander Esch, Roquan Smith, Rashaan Evans and T.J. Edwards all possible top-40 picks.

It could be a glorious crop of running backs. Saquon Barkley is the headliner but Ronald Jones II, Damien Harris, Kerryon Johnson and Bryce Love could find a home in round one. Royce Freeman might not be a great fit in Seattle’s scheme but he’s worth a second round pick. The sky’s the limit for Nick Chubb if he tests well at the combine and checks out medically.

Then you run down the depth. Derrius Guice is limited physically and possibly won’t go as early as some are projecting — but there’ll come a point where he’s a value pick. Rashaad Penny, Sony Michel, Bo Scarborough, Kalen Ballage, Kamryn Pettway and others provide the depth.

Quarterback likely won’t be a position the Seahawks target early but if Sam Darnold declares there’s a realistic prospect of five QB’s going in round one. Josh Rosen, Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Drew Lock have a chance while Mason Rudolph also has his backers. Luke Falk ended the season disappointingly but will be worth a shot in the middle rounds. Auburn’s Jarrett Stidham could be a wildcard and several teams will be interested in trying to develop Memphis’ Riley Ferguson.

The weaker positions appear to be offensive tackle, secondary and tight end. It’s possible no cornerbacks will be graded in the first round — unusual for such an important position. It’s also possible no tight ends will be drafted in the first two rounds. There are long standing issues with offensive tackles and while two or three could go in round one — it’s not a great class for the position.

Below are my ten best prospects eligible for the 2018 draft as of December 27th. I haven’t included quarterbacks because Seattle are one of the few teams with a Championship-winning franchise QB:

1. Saquon Barkley (RB, Penn State)
An incredible talent. Big, fast, versatile, great character, kick return skills. One way or another Barkley’s going to impact a game. He scored 116.79 in SPARQ at the Nike combine in 2014. He could be the #1 overall pick, easily. The only thing to keep an eye on is his speed. He ran a 4.63 in 2014 at 208lbs. He looks faster but it won’t be too surprising if he proves to be more sudden than a sprinter.

2. Quenton Nelson (G, Notre Dame)
Possibly as good a pure guard prospect as you’ll see entering the league. He has great size at 6-5 and 330lbs but moves well. He pulls nicely, he loves to get to the second level, he plays with an edge and he’s physical. Nelson’s got it all. It’s very difficult to identify flaws in his game. He deserves to go in the top-10.

3. Bradley Chubb (DE, NC State)
He’s the cousin of Georgia’s Nick Chubb. Nick famously had a sensational SPARQ combine, scoring an elite 143.91. Bradley is basically the 6-4, 275lbs version. He’s a difference-maker with the kind of charismatic personality often reserved for quality defensive linemen. He’s a great edge rusher but he’s strong with the ideal size to set the edge vs the run. Chubb has an incredible 25 TFL’s in 2017, having recorded 21.5 last year.

4. Clelin Ferrell (DE, Clemson)
Listed at 6-5 and 260lbs, Ferrell looks and plays big. He’s an inside-out rusher with the ability to attack from different positions. He could be the best defensive lineman in the class. It’ll be interesting to get official weight and height numbers to see how he compares athletically to the other top defensive linemen. He does play in a star-studded Clemson front. It’s been suggested he could end up as a three-technique. Ferrell has 17 TFL’s in 2017.

5. Vita Vea (DT, Washington)
I don’t think you can fully appreciate Vea until you’ve seen him live. When you see a 6-5, 340lbs defensive lineman sprinting to the sideline, roaming the field and chasing down runners — it’s an incredible sight. Vea could be Haloti Ngata. He can rush the passer, hold the point and anchor and move around with unreal mobility for his size. Despite suggestions to the contrary, I’ve seen little evidence of him taking snaps off. He plays very hard and he’s immensely powerful.

6. Tremaine Edmunds (LB, Virginia Tech)
There are things Edmunds can work on if he starts at middle linebacker at the next level. Sometimes he misreads the play, or he’s slightly out of position. The thing is, I wouldn’t keep him at middle linebacker. He’s 6-5 and 236lbs, flies around the field, apparently is set to run in the 4.5 range and push 40 inches in the vertical. He’s a Bruce Irvin. He can play any spot at linebacker and rush the edge. His run defense is excellent in short yardage situations, he’s super quick and constantly plays in attack mode. Fantastic prospect.

7. Tim Settle (DT, Virginia Tech)
When you know to look for Settle and Edmunds, it’s fun to watch Virginia Tech’s defense. One moment Edmunds appears from nowhere to close on a running back or receiver in space to make an open-field tackle. The next there’s this 6-3, 328lbs monster moving like a 290lber rushing the interior and beating blockers with quickness and a swim move. He had 12.5 TFL’s in 2017 which is unusual for a player this big. Settle is extremely underrated.

8. Ronald Jones II (RB, USC)
Some players just have ‘it’. It’s hard to describe but when you watch skill players on offense, the good ones just have a star quality sometimes. Odell Beckham Junior had it. Ezekiel Elliott had it. Mike Evans had it. Ronald Jones II has it. He plays with fantastic physicality despite weighing in the 200-210lbs range and will often break tackles and gain extra yardage. He’s also a home-run hitter if he finds a crease or the edge. The comparisons to Jamaal Charles are fair and Jones II just carries himself like a future stud. Look at the picture below. Jones II scores a touchdown on this play:

9. Damien Harris (RB, Alabama)
Harris is pretty close to the complete back. He’s a good size (5-11, 221lbs), he was a 126.93 SPARQ athlete at the Nike combine (where he ran a 4.48), he is a home-run hitter in the open field but also plays with great physicality. Harris pass-protects like the season is on the line every snap. There’s a legit feeling he might not declare for the draft. This year he averaged 8.2 YPC. Here’s a list of Alabama’s famous running backs over the years and their YPC’s:

Mark Ingram 2009 (Heisman winner) — 6.1 YPC
Mark Ingram 2010 — 5.5 YPC
Trent Richardson 2009 — 6.3 YPC
Trent Richardson 2010 — 5.9 YPC
Eddie Lacy 2012 — 6.5 YPC
T.J. Yeldon 2012 — 6.3 YPC
T.J. Yeldon 2013 — 6.0 YPC
T.J. Yeldon 2014 — 5.0 YPC
Derrick Henry 2014 — 5.8 YPC
Derrick Henry 2015 (Heisman winner) — 5.6 YPC
Bo Scarborough 2016 — 6.5 YPC
Bo Scarborough 2017 — 4.6 YPC
Damien Harris 2016 — 7.2 YPC
Damien Harris 2017 — 8.2 YPC

10. Billy Price (C, Ohio State)
Urban Meyer raves about Price. It’s worth remembering that Meyer has coached great interior O-line talent, including both Pouncey brothers. Price is in that mould. He can play guard or center and he combines edge, physicality and footwork to dominate up front. He’s really tough and plays like his hair’s on fire. Very active, very aggressive with the mobility to move to the second level. The type of player who helps set the tone and settles into the NFL quickly. He’s not too far behind Quenton Nelson.

#11 would be UTSA’s Marcus Davenport.

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Speed on defense & thoughts on Marcus Davenport

UTSA’s Marcus Davenport appears to have freakish athleticism

Here’s a quote from Pete Carroll, speaking to Brock & Salk on 710 ESPN, the day after the Rams hammering:

“It seemed like they were faster than us, and that’s what we like to pride ourselves on, that we play faster than the teams that we play.”

It’s probably something to remember when the off-season begins.

The Seahawks haven’t looked particularly fast on defense this year. Even when healthy, the game against Tennessee sticks in the mind. They had some really tough, physical performances. Early in the year they propped up a stalling offense. They’ve had some clunkers too. And Carroll’s point on speed was an interesting one.

There are exceptions of course. Earl Thomas and Bobby Wagner clearly are very fast for the two positions they play. Overall though?

If the Seahawks do look to make significant changes to the defense in the off-season, raw speed is likely to be at the forefront of their thinking. Carroll stated ‘speed in the front seven’ as a key need before the 2012 draft. They selected Bruce Irvin and Bobby Wagner with their first two picks. Irvin ran a 4.50 at 245lbs and Wagner a 4.45 at 241lbs.

That could be the starting point for a reshaping of the defense. Speed. Whether that’s in the front seven or at defensive back. The Seahawks set out to be bigger, faster and stronger. They might be about to focus on the ‘faster’ part in the 2018 off-season.

On that note, I want to spend today’s piece looking at Marcus Davenport. He’s a small school prospect at UTSA. He received attention from draft writers during the season — with some even including him in first round projections.

Over the years I haven’t written a lot about small school prospects. Tape access is limited. It’s also very difficult to get a feel for their potential playing a lower level of competition.

It really comes down to whether they absolutely dominate at the level. They need to if you’re going to imagine the huge jump to the NFL.

There are quarterback success stories. Carson Wentz is a recent example. Joe Flacco played at Delaware. Tony Romo at Eastern Illinois. Akiem Hicks, the brilliant defensive lineman at Chicago, attended Regina in Canada.

Generally though it seems like small school prospects get talked about a lot but many fail to get anywhere near the level of the names above. Davenport, however, might have a shot.

He will clearly benefit from a pro-weight training regime. He looks like he can actually become more physically impressive — which is saying something considering his size.

Tony Pauline wrote this about Davenport in October:

If your team needs a pass rusher in the offseason, remember the name Marcus Davenport. Entering the year graded as a priority free agent, Davenport has made scouts take notice with his dominant 2017 campaign. Six games into the season he’s recorded 32 tackles, 12 tackles for loss, 6.5 sacks and has also broken up four passes. During the weekend victory over Rice, he led UTSA with 11 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss and two sacks. Measuring in over 6-foot-5 and 255 pounds, Davenport plays quick, explosive football and makes plays behind the line of scrimmage as well as out in space. Versatility is key and Davenport offers potential as a one-gap defensive end or a 3-4 outside linebacker. I would expect him to receive an invitation to a January All-Star game then attend the combine and eventually end up in the early part of the draft’s final day.

He did receive an invite to the Senior Bowl. He will be a fascinating player to observe in Mobile.

I’m going to go through some clips here. Firstly though, a quick point. Davenport is going to look like peak Jadeveon Clowney in some of these videos. He looks very impressive. He’s an intriguing prospect. So was Margus Hunt at SMU, drafted in the second round in 2013. He measured at 6-8 and 295lbs. His college tape, at times, was ridiculous. He looked like a monster. He’s had a pretty average NFL career though.

That doesn’t mean Davenport faces the same fate. That’s not the point I’m making. It’s merely that sometimes these devastating clips look amazing — but the next level is a giant leap.

Now let’s look at why Davenport is freakishly good:

There are not many defensive ends with Davenport’s size and this level of mobility in space. He chases the ball carrier down like a defensive back and does just enough to force him out of bounds for a huge loss.

The clip lists him at 6-7 and 255lbs. He’s actually 6-5 and 254lbs. You don’t see many draft prospects with that level of mobility and agility at that size.

Here’s another example:

Look at him work to the sideline. The quarterback isn’t the best athlete but Davenport barely breaks into a sweat controlling his movement and delivering a sledgehammer hit.

At times UTSA pretty much used him as a roaming/blitzing linebacker. He doesn’t just work well laterally, his closing burst is exceptional too:

On this evidence you’d expect a great 10-yard split.

One of the plays in the video above shows him lining up at DE and sprinting to cover the running back in the flat. Small school opponent or not — that’s impressive.

How is he as an EDGE rusher? Violent:

Look at his bend for the size, the explosion off the snap, the ability to just overpower blockers and hammer the quarterback. This is where you want to see him dominate. He’s facing inferior blockers. And Davenport takes their lunch money.

Watch him 17 seconds into this video. Not a great idea trying to block him with a running back:

Why not try a double team? In fairness this is a terribly executed double but Davenport just barges his way through, combining power and speed:

Here’s a full game of his snaps against North Texas:

If the Seahawks do set out to get younger and faster on defense, switching the identity of the franchise in the process, I’m not sure they’ll go after a small school D-liner to launch the re-tool. Davenport might be the type of player who needs time to deliver on his athletic potential.

Having said that, let’s see how he gets on at the combine. There’s a lot of potential and a lot to like. Davenport’s mobility and size isn’t common and he can clearly feature in a number of different roles.

If they want bigger, faster, stronger — he could be an option. As noted earlier, size and particularly speed could easily be the focus on defense in the off-season.

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The sky is not falling: Off-season plan & new mock draft

Three days on, I’ve settled on a conclusion for the 42-7 Rams hammering.

It was a nightmarish day, uncharacteristic of this team under Pete Carroll. It does hint towards some changes that need to happen. It’s also a sign that they can’t rely on some of their ageing stars anymore.

I also thinks it’s worth making a few points. This was a perfect storm for the Rams. They were healthy and hungry, the Seahawks banged up across the board and missing a colossal number of players. Seattle contrived to do everything wrong on all three sides of the ball. Two weeks ago the Seahawks handled the NFC leading Philadelphia Eagles. A few weeks ago a much healthier and in-tune Seahawks team beat the Rams in LA. They forced five turnovers and could’ve (should’ve) won more handsomely than they did.

When the two teams meet next year at Century Link — even while acknowledging the Rams are a greatly improved team — it will be a contest. That’s assuming the Seahawks don’t give LA fantastic starting field position for every possession, lose multiple key starters and lay an egg on all three sides of the ball again.

It was a highly embarrassing loss. Yet not quite as cataclysmic, in my opinion, as we thought during and immediately after the game.

Here is what I believe the Seahawks need to do to get back on track in 2018 — because the playoffs are now highly unlikely this season.

Re-establish Pete Carroll’s vision

Tough defense and a big-time running game. It’s not as difficult as it sounds. They have talent on the D-line, at linebacker and in the secondary. They need more talent to aid the running game.

They will have some cap room. Not tons, but some.

They probably won’t get back to their best immediately. It might take two off-seasons. But it’s achievable.

This is how I would plan to do things right now:

1. Prioritise the free agents
Who do you need moving forward? Who best helps you achieve your desired identity? Sheldon Richardson might be costly but he’s also most likely to help you achieve a tough, physical defense that defends the run very well. We’ll see how they feel about Luke Joeckel but they might think consistency up front is worth more than a further change. Either way — identify who best helps achieve this strict identity and don’t think twice about releasing the players who don’t fit.

2. Be smart in free agency
Bradley McDougald was a good move. In the past they’ve used the veteran market to their advantage. The Chris Clemons trade. The value additions of Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril. They didn’t hit a home run in free agency a year ago but they’ve done it in the past. They’re capable. We know that. If possible, add a blocking tight end and make the moves that will help establish the running game.

3. Target two key areas in the draft
For me, looking at this class, a solid plan would be to draft either the best defensive player in round one or the best running back. Adding a defender who can be part of the next core would be a huge boost for the future and help the defense reload in 2018. There is enough defensive talent in this draft (see below) to feel good about that opportunity. Failing that, add one of the really good running backs to inject talent at that position and finally get someone you trust and want to feature at RB. It’s unfortunate they don’t have their second round pick to be able to aggressively target these two areas. Maybe they can get some picks back?

4. Get the late round magic working again
Kam Chancellor, Richard Sherman, K.J Wright. Core players added between rounds 4-7. They’ve had a stretch now without a major defensive hit in that range. Time to put that right. Again, we know they can do it.

5. Add talent to the staff and/or front office
In the past they’ve used former GM’s to enhance the front office. That’s not to suggest John Schneider is incapable. Some of the criticism levelled at Schneider is silly. But they’ve had Scot McCloughan and Jeff Ireland on board in the past. Is there someone of that ilk they can bring in to get all hands on deck for this important draft? And are there a couple of established coaches out there willing to come in and add to the staff? I don’t believe firing coordinators is necessarily the answer. I think adding even more knowledge, experience and quality could be. I’d also look at the college ranks to see if there’s anyone to poach. For example — Washington State defensive coordinator Alex Grinch (sorry Coug fans). Sell him the idea of being the next Dan Quinn and make it worth his while in terms of salary. Dan Quinn went from Seattle’s D-line coach to Florida’s defensive coordinator, then in charge of Seattle’s defense before becoming the Head Coach in Atlanta. Add coaching talent.

None of this is reinventing the wheel. It’s not as outrageous as the ‘trade Russell Wilson’ takes (sigh) or suggesting a whole new staff is required.

It’s a recommitment to what made this team work in the past.

Now onto a mock draft with trades, with some Seahawks thoughts at the end…

Note — I didn’t include Sam Darnold. There’s enough talk about him staying at USC to believe that is likely.

NoteDraft order courtesy of Tankathon

#1 Cleveland — Josh Rosen (QB, UCLA)
With accuracy, a great release, the ability to make a range of throws and ideal size — Rosen has every chance to become a very good NFL quarterback.

#2 New York Giants — Saquon Barkley (RB, Penn State)
Yes they need to think about the future at quarterback. But how do you turn down the prospect of Barkley, Odell Beckham Jr and Evan Engram on the same offense for the next however many years?

#3 Indianapolis — Bradley Chubb (EDGE, NC State)
Bradley is Nick Chubb’s cousin. Nick had one of the best SPARQ workouts imaginable in 2013 at the Nike combine. Bradley is a 6-4, 275lbs version of Nick. Fantastic player.

#4 Cleveland (via Houston) — Clelin Ferrell (DE, Clemson)
Ferrell can play inside or out and would be a nice compliment for Myles Garrett. The Browns can learn a thing or two from the Jaguars and their fearsome D-line.

#5 Arizona (trade w/49ers) — Baker Mayfield (QB, Oklahoma)
The Cardinals, needing a long term answer at quarterback, trade up to make sure they get their guy. Baker Mayfield belongs in the top five.

#6 New York Jets (trade w/Bears) — Josh Allen (QB, Wyoming)
With the top two quarterbacks off the board the Jets, who reportedly like Allen (per Tony Pauline) make their move and find a willing trade partner in Chicago.

#7 Tampa Bay — Vita Vea (DT, Washington)
The Buccs could go in a number of directions but Vea is a rare talent and would work perfectly next to Gerald McCoy. Vea could be the next Haloti Ngata.

#8 Cincinnati — Quenton Nelson (G, Notre Dame)
Probably the second best player in the draft behind Saquon Barkley. He lasts a little longer due to the rush on quarterbacks. This would be great value and fill a big need.

#9 Denver — Minkah Fitzpatrick (S, Alabama)
Very reliable defender with the versatility to be a modern day defensive back. Fitzpatrick will go in the top 10 or 15 picks — whether he goes earlier than this will depend on his workout.

#10 Chicago (trade w/Jets) — Calvin Ridley (WR, Alabama)
Ridley is adept at getting open and he’s consistent. He isn’t big but the Bears might settle for a reliable go-to target for Mitchell Trubisky.

#11 San Francisco (trade w/Cardinals) — Courtland Sutton (WR, SMU)
The Niners have their quarterback it seems — now it’s time to make his life easier with some weapons. Sutton can do it all, has great character and looks like an early pick.

#12 Oakland — Tremaine Edmunds (LB, Virginia Tech)
Wow — what a talent. He can play inside or outside linebacker, drop down and play the edge. He is going to go early — and Tony Pauline thinks he’ll run in the 4.5’s and jump a 40 inch vertical. Tough, physical, great closing speed. Brilliant.

#13 Washington — Roquan Smith (LB, Georgia)
Might be a bit small for some teams but he absolutely flies around the field and he’s been the standout player on Georgia’s SEC Championship defense.

#14 Miami — Billy Price (C, Ohio State)
We’ve talked a lot about Price and Quenton Nelson. There’s not much between the two. They are exceptional prospects. Urban Meyes loves Price and he coached the Pouncey’s.

#15 Los Angeles Chargers — Orlando Brown (T, Oklahoma)
Huge tackle with NFL bloodlines. Likely a right tackle but that would suit the Chargers. He can bookend Russell Okung. Considered by many to be the best of a bad bunch at tackle in 2018.

#16 Green Bay — Tim Settle (DT, Virginia Tech)
At times he looks like Warren Sapp. Huge size but moves so well. A rare player with the size to defend the run and the quickness to be a pass rusher.

#17 Baltimore — Mike McGlinchey (T, Notre Dame)
Had a really good performance against Harold Landry of Boston College. Worked well with Quenton Nelson. Would make a nice right tackle in Baltimore, working across from former Notre Dame team mate Ronnie Stanley.

#18 Detroit — Christian Wilkins (DT, Clemson)
The Lions could’ve had Ndamukong Suh and Aaron Donald playing next to each other. Instead they drafted Eric Ebron and fudged Suh’s contract. They need an interior playmaker.

#19 New Orleans (trade w/Seahawks) — Drew Lock (QB, Missouri)
Drew Brees is out of contract and while he probably stays in New Orleans, the Saints need to think about the future. They move above Buffalo here to get rising prospect Drew Lock.

#20 Dallas — Derwin James (S, Florida State)
More Eric Reid than Eric Berry and that’s why he might last. Looks the part and is physical but lacks the great range and athleticism to go earlier.

#21 Tennessee — T.J. Edwards (LB, Wisconsin)
Edwards’ combine will severely impact his stock but he’s shone for Wisconsin and could easily sneak into the back end of round one.

#22 Buffalo — Damien Harris (RB, Alabama)
Underrated, complete running back who is a much better athlete and playmaker than people realise. Great in pass-pro, electric at the second level and tough. He will be good. Might not declare though.

#23 Atlanta — Taven Bryan (DT, Florida)
Big Taven Bryan fan here. Not the finished product but the Gators struggled so much it was never going to happen in 2017. Expect a great combine performance. He will move up boards.

#24 Seattle (trade w/Saints) — Ronald Jones II (RB, USC)
The Seahawks trade down with the Saints to get back some of their draft stock and take a player who looks so much like Jamaal Charles and can rejuvenate their running game.

#25 Buffalo (via Kansas City) — Maurice Hurst (DT, Michigan)
Had a really strong season in a middling Michigan defense. The Bills could do with re-stocking their defensive line after dealing Marcell Dareus.

#26 Jacksonville — Arden Key (EDGE, LSU)
Off field mystery and a couple of injuries will lead to some concern about Key and he could drop out of round one. That said — he is very talented and a good team could take a chance on his talent paying off.

#27 Los Angeles Rams — Austin Bryant (EDGE, Clemson)
One of a number of star performers for Clemson this year. Is probably helped by the loaded interior D-line he plays next to but Bryant has had a really strong 2017 season with 14.5 TFL’s.

#28 Carolina — Ronnie Harrison (S, Alabama)
Physical, tone-setting safety who hits with a bang. His tackle injured Kerryon Johnson and changed the face of the SEC Championship game.

#29 Pittsburgh — Denzel Ward (CB, Ohio State)
This is not a good draft for cornerbacks — a complete reverse of a year ago. Denzel Ward has shown enough to think he might be the best and it’s likely one of the CB’s will go in the first round.

#30 Minnesota — D.J. Moore (WR, Maryland)
A playmaker with great toughness, capable of making grabs downfield, exploiting screens and breaking tackles. Shifty. Combine will determine how early he goes.

#31 New England — Rashaan Evans (LB, Alabama)
I watched him after Tremaine Edmunds and intend to watch more. Evans has the potential to go in the first round but his combine will be important.

#32 Philadelphia — Bryce Love (RB, Stanford)
I prefer Kerryon Johnson but there’s two reasons why I went with Love here. Firstly, no injuries. Secondly, he looks like a Philly back and would compliment Jay Ajayi.

Not included:

Kerryon Johnson (RB, Auburn)
May suffer due to the injuries he’s had but would provide value in round two along with the other running backs still available (eg Royce Freeman).

Anthony Miller (WR, Memphis)
Tony Pauline has reported some potential injury red flags and others suggest he’ll run in the 4.6’s. He’s a really good player but he might not go as early as I originally thought.

Connor Williams (T, Texas)
There’s increasing buzz that Williams isn’t as highly regarded by teams as he is in the media. There’s always a demand for offensive tackles, however.

Thoughts on the Seahawks

In the plan earlier in the piece, we discussed targeting the best defensive player available or the best running back.

In this mock scenario (it’s still very early) a lot of the top defensive talent is off the board at Seattle’s pick (#19). Tremaine Edmunds is gone for example. There were alternatives but the likelihood of a trade down is relatively high considering Seattle doesn’t own a second or third round pick.

They deal with the Saints who might be looking to target a quarterback of the future to develop. Using this updated trade chart, the Seahawks could net a third rounder. The thing that makes the trade unlikely is the Saints are already without their second round pick (dealt to get Alvin Kamara in the 2017 draft). However, they might be more inclined to be aggressive given their successful season so far.

With the #24 pick they take Ronald Jones II, who we talked about in more detail here. He isn’t like a lot of the running backs they’ve drafted previously but he’s immensely talented and looks a lot like Jamaal Charles. The Seahawks probably need someone they crave to feature at running back. It kept them on track in the Marshawn Lynch days. Jones II is the type of player you can’t keep out of the game.

There’s a lot of debate about whether it’s the running backs or the O-line preventing Seattle from running the ball. It’s probably a bit of both — but here’s the reality of the situation. Chris Carson averaged 4.2 yards per carry before his injury. Mike Davis averages 3.9 (he was above 4.0 before the Rams game). J.D. McKissic is on 4.2 YPC.

Thomas Rawls and Eddie Lacy are both at 2.6 YPC.

Now let’s compare Carson, Davis and McKissic to some of the top performing running backs in the NFL:

Le’Veon Bell — 4.0 YPC
LeSean McCoy — 4.1 YPC
Todd Gurley — 4.6 YPC
Leonard Fournette — 4.0 YPC
Melvin Gordon — 3.8 YPC

If it was true that Seattle’s offensive line was completely inept at run blocking we wouldn’t be seeing Carson, Davis and McKissic recording a similar YPC to the names listed above.

Talent at running back is an issue. When Carson got hurt they simply couldn’t rely on Rawls and Lacy and thus didn’t feel like they could properly commit to the run. They’ve been able to do that more with Davis.

If they have talent at running back — it stands to reason they will feel confident featuring the running game as much as they desire. Carson could still be the guy for the long term. Adding another RB, especially with the talent in this draft, would provide insurance and truly help the Seahawks’ attempt to regain their preferred identity.

Going back to the mock, they could trade down again and still get a good back. That’s the beauty of this class. They can move around and still address certain issues. There are some good offensive linemen slated to go in rounds two and three (Braden Smith, Will Hernandez, Frank Ragnow, Isaiah Wynn, Coleman Shelton). If they drop into round two the likes of Damien Harris, Ronald Jones II, Kerryon Johnson and Royce Freeman could be available. There will be defensive options. They might be able to gather a nice haul and address their needs.

So it’s not all doom and gloom.

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USC’s Ronald Jones is interesting, different

As we run through the running back class, here’s a reminder of the players we’ve looked at so far:

Damien Harris (Alabama)
Kerryon Johnson (Auburn)
Nick Chubb (Georgia)
Derrius Guice (LSU)

Here’s a post with further notes on Harris and Johnson

USC’s Ronald Jones II isn’t like the four names above. This was the first time I’d had a chance to properly study him and it’s impossible not to be extremely impressed. I wouldn’t argue with anyone who believed he was the second best eligible running back (behind Saquon Barkley).

There’s something to consider before we look at why he’s an exciting prospect. He’s listed at 6-0 and 200lbs. That would be a move away from Seattle’s preferred physical profile.

Here are the running backs they’ve drafted since 2012:

Robert Turbin — 5-10, 222lbs
Spencer Ware — 5-10, 228lbs
Christine Michael — 5-10, 220lbs
C.J. Prosise — 6-0, 220lbs
Alex Collins — 5-10, 217lbs
Chris Carson — 6-0, 218lbs

This doesn’t exclude Jones from being an option for the Seahawks but it is something to consider. Taking him would be a departure from their recent drafting style.

You might argue that this preferred physical profile hasn’t brought about good results recently. Let’s not forget though that Seattle’s ‘preferred profile’ also includes Marshawn Lynch, Alex Collins is currently having a great time in Baltimore, Chris Carson looked really good before his injury, Spencer Ware has had success in Kansas City and none of Christine Michael’s issues were due to physical build or athleticism.

The Seahawks met with Jamaal Charles in the off-season. According to Ian Rapaport both parties had ‘strong mutual interest’. This suggests the Seahawks might be flexible in their approach to RB’s for the right player.

Jones is eerily similar to Charles. They have almost identical bodies. They’re 6-0 and 200lbs. Their running styles are very similar. USC offensive coordinator Tee Martin even made the comparison:

“He reminded me of Jamaal Charles of the Kansas City Chiefs. That type of skill set. Just a guy who runs and it’s easy for him. It doesn’t look like he’s working hard and he’s running by everyone.”

Jones himself has admitted he looks up to Charles.

Pro-comparisons are often lazy and serve only to create false expectations. With Jones, the comparison feels reasonable. And that’s why I wouldn’t rule out interest from the Seahawks even if he is a different body type. Who wouldn’t want someone like Charles?

We’ll see how accurate the comparison is by the combine. They look similar on tape but Charles ran an excellent 4.38 at the combine. I haven’t been able to find any workout information from the Nike combines but Jones reportedly clocked a 4.41 during recruiting. That’s the kind of time he needs. In terms of explosive qualities, Charles managed a 30.5 inch vertical and a 10-2 broad. He also had a 4.22 short shuttle. Those are the types of marks Jones needs to hit.

Let’s look at what he’s about.

Often a player with great speed isn’t a tough runner up the middle. That’s not the case here. Jones has tough runs dragging tacklers for extra yardage while keeping his legs moving. He might prove to be a little slower at the combine than Charles but he might be a more explosive tester.

For example, look at this:

That’s a 200lbs running back pushing the pile there, getting the absolute maximum out of that run. That’s not a weak defensive line he’s facing either. It’s Stanford.

He’s also capable of breaking tackles and fighting for extra yardage in the open field:

The defender he throws off there is a linebacker playing up at the LOS. He turned a relatively routine first down conversion into a big 25-yard gain. Pure physicality, explosive power. Exciting.

Toughness and physicality isn’t just about running through tackles either. Damien Harris at Alabama is a highly competitive pass blocker. There’s some evidence that Jones is equally willing to put a hit on a pass rusher and protect the quarterback:

The next clip is my favourite play though:

Pause the video after a single second and look at the screenshot. Jones is staring at a wall of bodies and the run appears destined to be stuffed. He somehow squirts through the scrum and with one cut takes out three defenders who overcommit to the left side. It’s such a sharp, sudden, nasty cut. Once he reaches the second level it’s over. He sprints away, untouched, for a huge touchdown.

It’s the perfect example of his ability to get skinny and find a running lane, show some physicality to fight through the initial pile and then explode thanks to one perfectly executed cut.

Clearly he isn’t ‘just’ a sprinter. He is extremely smooth and sudden as a runner though. He makes it look so effortless:

He bounces this run to the outside, sprints in-between a couple of defenders and takes it in for a big touchdown. Jones barely breaks stride, he just glides. This is why the Jamaal Charles comparisons carry some weight. Can’t you just imagine peak Jamaal making a play like that?

Here’s another example. This video reminds me a little bit of one of Adoree’ Jackson’s returns for USC. There’s virtually no room by the right sideline and somehow he cuts his way into space and finds a lane. It’s an incredible play that demands so much body control, speed and acceleration. The balance he shows to set up the blocks and max out such a tiny portion of space to make this long touchdown is incredible:

How do you not get excited looking at a play like that?

Here’s another one:

It’s like he’s on ski’s — slaloming through traffic while remaining perfectly balanced and in control. When he sees the opportunity to get upfield he turns on the jets and just accelerates away from the defense. His ability to cut away from trouble and then go from 0-60 in a flash is highly impressive.

He’s not going to punish a team with up-the-middle running, wearing down an opponent and forcing them into fourth quarter submission. That’s not what you draft him to be. He’ll infuriate opponents in a different way — his ability to turn relatively mundane plays into huge gains. He’s able to find the edge and suddenly explode to a big gain. He sets up downfield blocks like a returner and he’s a really difficult out when he gets to the second level despite being only 200lbs.

If he declares for the draft, Jones is going to be in the conversation to be the second running back drafted. He’s a major talent, with an attitude and personality that just fits the position. He appears tough, both in the way he carries himself and the way he performs on the field.

There’s an X-factor about his game that is exciting.

For the year he had 1486 yards at 6.1 YPC. He had 19 total touchdowns.

It’ll be hard to separate the likes of Jones, Damien Harris and Kerryon Johnson if they all turn pro. They’re all very different runners with appealing traits.

Consider this as well. If Jones’ best comparison is Jamaal Charles — well Charles lasted until round three. Kerryon Johnson’s patience in the backfield is reminiscent of Le’Veon Bell (although there’s a big difference in size). Bell was a round two pick. How many Alabama running backs have lasted into round two over the years? Derrick Henry, T.J. Yeldon, Eddie Lacy. Kenyon Drake was a third rounder.

This looks a great year to consider spending a high pick on a running back. The Seahawks might have the luxury of being able to trade down before making it happen.

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A few more thoughts on Derrius Guice

This week Todd McShay published his first mock draft with the Seahawks selecting LSU running back Derrius Guice. We addressed the pick here.

I wanted to offer a few more thoughts on Guice today.

There’s no doubting he’s a tough, physical runner. He’s well sized at a listed 5-11 and 212lbs and that’s more or less in Seattle’s ballpark for profile.

There are two really good qualities about his game. Firstly, he’s tough to bring down. He’ll collide into defenders, bounce away from the initial contact and get extra yardage. He’s not an easy get if he can find a crease to the second level:

This quality helps in the red zone too. He’s really tough:

So while he’s not necessarily a big, physical tone-setter — defenders are going to need to bring it to get him on the turf.

His second best quality is he’s quite adept at hitting the line with authority. He’s not going to be the fastest tester at the combine — but he generally gets up to speed quickly and he’s assertive in his decision making. He scampers rather than sprints but it enables him to chew up ground:

He’s not lightning quick but those short strides enable him to cover a lot of yards. He doesn’t run away from many defenders and there are plenty of examples where he gets caught from behind. Yet that initial burst and decisiveness at the line make up for a lack of pure speed.

So here’s what I think he is — a tough as nails running back who won’t quit and has enough initial quickness to take advantage of good blocking. He will effectively take what is available more often than not and leave everything on the field.

It’s also worth noting, however, that he is quite limited physically.

Speed isn’t everything for a running back. Explosive traits can make up for a lack of pure straight-line speed. Unfortunately for Guice he seems to be lacking in both areas. His game is going to be more about tough physical running than it is about great athleticism. There’s a danger, however, that at the next level he’ll struggle to stand out against a higher level of athletic competition.

Let’s compare Guice to some of his peers.

Here’s his workout from the SPARQ combine:

Height: 5’11”
Weight: 216
40: 4.61
Short Shuttle: 4.66
Vertical Leap: 30.4″
Power Throw: 35.0″
SPARQ: 83.37

This is a particularly pedestrian workout compared to some of the other running backs in this class. For example, here’s how Damien Harris performed:

Height: 5-10
Weight: 210lbs
40-yard: 4.48
Short shuttle: 4.00
Vertical: 38 inches
SPARQ: 126.93

Again, workouts aren’t everything. Guice’s mentality and physicality will cover some of the physical flaws. Yet Harris is quicker and more explosive per his testing results and you do see evidence of that on tape (for more on Harris check out this piece from a few weeks ago).

Harris is also just as tough and physical as Guice, he’s just as difficult to bring down:

But he also does this:

And of course this:

Now let’s look at Oregon’s Royce Freeman:

Height: 6-0
Weight: 227lbs
40-yard: 4.58
Short shuttle: 4.07
Vertical: 33.6 inches
SPARQ: 121.17

Freeman was 10lbs heavier than Guice at the SPARQ combine but ran a slightly quicker forty time. He was far superior to Guice in the short shuttle and he had a more explosive vertical jump.

A lot of people enjoyed comparing the brilliant Leonard Fournette with Guice last year, after Guice successfully spelled the now Jacksonville Jaguar. Fournette at his SPARQ combine didn’t do all of the tests (and therefore didn’t receive an overall score) but it’s worth noting how much quicker he was in the short shuttle (4.3 vs 4.66) despite being exactly 10lbs heavier. At the NFL combine Fournette ran a 4.51 — 0.10 seconds quicker than Guice’s SPARQ test.

Dalvin Cook managed a 110.64 SPARQ score at his workout. It wasn’t a brilliant performance given his size (5-11, 196lbs) but it’s still considerably higher than Guice’s 83.37.

I’ll say it again because I want this message to be clear. SPARQ isn’t everything. Explosive testing isn’t everything. However, the Seahawks have a pretty consistent track record in drafting explosive testers at running back (the history of which is detailed in my Damien Harris piece).

I can imagine the Seahawks appreciating and liking Guice’s running style and his vibrant personality. Yet one of the objective’s of this blog is to try and discuss trends and use the information we have to judge how likely a player is to end up a Seahawk. We won’t get everything right. It seems, however, that Guice will likely need a better workout at the NFL combine if he’s going to be a first round pick by Seattle.

It’s a competitive group of running backs. Little things like a great physical profile and durability will end up being a difference maker in the final rankings.

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The pro’s and con’s of re-signing each future free agent

This is good news for the Seahawks. They were projected to have around $8-9m in cap space in 2018 before this update. If the cap goes up by as much as $10m and they create room elsewhere (they’d gain an extra $12.5m if they cut Jeremy Lane and Cliff Avril retires) then they could have over $30m available.

We’ve talked a lot recently about some of they key future free agents on the roster. Here are some of the pro’s and con’s for re-signing each:

Jimmy Graham

The argument for…

For years the Seahawks were not a good redzone team, even when they had peak Marshawn Lynch. In 2017 they’ve been pretty automatic, thanks largely to the chemistry between Russell Wilson and Jimmy Graham.

Having finally worked it out with Graham to the tune of nine touchdowns (so far), it’d be quite something to move on and lose what has finally clicked. Redzone touchdowns are not to be sniffed at, especially with Seattle giving up more points defensively these days. They can’t keep things tight and win in the fourth quarter with defense and the run like they used to. Seven instead of three is important.

It’s also not as simple as just giving Graham’s targets to somebody else. There’s a reason the likes of Luke Willson, Zach Miller and Anthony McCoy didn’t rack up TD’s in previous seasons. Graham is a special player when it comes to operating in the end zone, with a unique frame and catching radius. It won’t be easy to simply move his scoring streak to somebody else.

As Graham has become so effective in the redzone it’s become increasingly difficult for teams to avoid focusing on him. That in turn can lead to opportunities for other receivers. For the first time in a long time the redzone doesn’t feel like a problem for Seattle — an incredible feat given how inept they’ve been rushing the ball.

Graham is also very close to Russell Wilson. If this is increasingly Wilson’s team, it would be interesting if they allowed his BFF and favourite redzone target to walk away.

The argument against…

Graham looks less effective these days when Seattle isn’t in the redzone. Although he’s been prolific as a touchdown scorer, between the 20’s he hasn’t been much of a factor. For the year he only has 473 yards — just over 36 per game. His career per-catch average is 12.3 yards. In 2017 he’s managing just 9.1.

Is he still the great athlete we once knew? He’ll turn 32 during the 2018 season. It has to be expected that he’s going to lose some speed. While he’s still clearly a difference maker in certain situations, he might never be pushing 1000 yards again. How much you want to commit to a 31-year-old tight end is a conversation they’ll likely have. Although Graham does seem to have a bit of a timeless quality in terms of his ability to box-out and make plays in the redzone.

There have been games where Graham has looked strikingly poor, such as the recent loss in Jacksonville. He had a bad drop on Seattle’s final, crucial drive. He received criticism from Pete Carroll for Wilson’s second interception. His body language was poor and without the redzone opportunities he was a non-factor.

Graham is very good at the things he does well. Arguably he hasn’t done enough to improve in other areas and fit into what this team wants from a star TE. Pete Carroll talked frequently in the past about how he could become the complete tight end. Now, he’s kind of just Jimmy Graham doing Jimmy Graham things. That’s not necessarily a bad thing but is it enough to consider paying out a big new contract?

Bradley McDougald

The argument for…

After a quiet start to the season McDougald has excelled since replacing Kam Chancellor at strong safety. He’s a different player to Kam but what he lacks in big hits and run defense he perhaps makes up for in quickness and the ability to cover ground.

It’ll be impossible for anyone to replace Kam’s stature, leadership and tone-setting presence. Yet McDougald’s play hasn’t made Chancellor’s absence a big factor in Seattle’s 8-5 record. Compare the way he’s performing to the relief safety’s a year ago when Chancellor and Earl Thomas both missed time. McDougald looks like a legit starter.

With Chancellor set to make a decision on whether he continues playing in 2017, retaining McDougald would buy him and the team some time. They did draft Delano Hill this year, spending a valuable third round pick to bring him in. Yet McDougald has played well enough to wonder whether they should automatically turn it over to the younger, cheaper player. In 2018 if Richard Sherman returns as expected and they get healthy — the Seahawks will not suffer a significant drop off at safety if McDougald is the full-time starter.

He’s not the biggest name set for free agency but he might be one of the most valuable to keep around, especially if Chancellor does retire. Replacing Kam once looked like a daunting task. They might’ve found the man for the job.

The argument against…

Cost could be an issue. The Seahawks admitted they were a bit surprised when they found McDougald was available in free agency. They weren’t necessarily looking to add a veteran safety but quickly signed him to a $2m contract. After a successful stint in Seattle and with McDougald at a good age (27) he might not be as cheap or be willing to sign another short term deal.

With cap space limited it comes down to priorities. Having drafted Hill in round three and with at least the possibility of Chancellor returning, this might not work out. Personally I think McDougald could and should be a priority, if not the priority. He’s at a good age and represents an opportunity to replace a key, ageing star with another high quality replacement. His attitude and playing style seems to fit the team.

Yet if they decide other players need to be the priority instead, they might not be able to make this work. And you have to believe other teams have noticed how well McDougald is playing this year.

Luke Joeckel

The argument for…

Seattle’s offensive line, after a rough season and a half, is finally taking shape. It’s still a work in progress but the recent improvement is obvious and substantial. Duane Brown has provided a major positive influence at left tackle and the five current starters look like a unit that could competently start for some time.

Brown, Justin Britt and Germain Ifedi appear relatively locked in. Yes, that includes Ifedi. Breno Giacomini had an issue with penalties too but once he addressed that he was a worthy starter. This is Ifedi’s first season at right tackle in the NFL and he has, overall, performed well enough to expect continued progression. Hopefully we’ll see similar progress from Ethan Pocic in time.

If Joeckel walks they have to fill the left guard spot again and go through more change. The alternatives in free agency are dreadful and with limited draft stock, they might have to look at the options already on the roster. Going back to Mark Glowinski, moving George Fant to guard or going with Jordan Roos or Rees Odhiambo are options. None are former #2 overall picks though and Joeckel, when healthy, has been competent. Not flawless, but competent.

Consistency is a big thing for an offensive line. Chemistry, turning five guys into one machine. There’s been too much churn for too long with this O-line. Now that they have five guys they can grow and build with, it might be time to roll with it.

The argument against…

The health of Joeckel’s knee is a question mark. He’s already had significant injuries in his career and he missed a number of games this season to have a minor repair. We have no idea about his medical situation. The team might actually be quite optimistic about the knee. It’s an issue that’s out there though and makes you wonder how the Seahawks might approach this one.

They clearly like Joeckel. At one point in the summer they were talking him up as one of the better guards in the NFL. Within minutes of free agency opening, Seattle’s first move was to sign Joeckel. Now they’ve had a year to work with him, check on his health, see how he fits. Yet if they’re concerned about his durability they almost have to continue to think short term again or move on.

The growing cost of offensive linemen also needs to be considered here. There’s been a recent explosion in O-line contracts with even middling players getting huge deals. Joeckel’s 2017 contract is described as expensive by some but it’s actually pretty good value all things considered.

If he has a market in the off-season he could receive some lucrative offers. That could make it hard for the Seahawks to compete with limited cap room.

They’re also paying significantly for two players on their O-line already. Duane Brown’s cap hit in 2018 is $9.75m. Justin Britt’s new average salary is $9m per year. This could be a factor — but they were willing to pay Brown, Joeckel and Britt this year so there’s nothing to suggest that’d be a road block.

Sheldon Richardson

The argument for…

They’ve already spent their 2018 second round pick on Richardson. If he walks and gets a huge contract, they’ll potentially get a comp pick in 2019. That’s a long way in the future though and depends on the deal he gets and Seattle not making any big free agent acquisitions themselves.

It would be quite the thing for the Seahawks to move on from Richardson and essentially get nothing more than one season out of their 2018 second rounder. When you consider they might not get anything out of their first pick from 2017 (Malik McDowell) they’d have wasted two high picks in the space of a year. That would be tolerable if the Seahawks were serious contenders to win the Super Bowl this season. Imagine if they don’t make the playoffs though, a stark possibility unfortunately, having been so wasteful with high draft picks?

It wouldn’t be a good look. And while saving face isn’t a good enough reason alone to give someone a massive new contract — they surely had to have a long term plan for Richardson? Unless they just believed he would help them win a title this year, thus limiting the negative reaction if he was to walk after one year?

On the field he hasn’t had the kind of impact many were hoping for, at least in terms of sacks. The minimum expectation was probably 5-6 sacks, similar to the production Clinton McDonald and Jordan Hill produced in 2013 and 2014. Instead Richardson has just one sack, albeit with a number of near misses.

That said, personally I think Richardson has been a good acquisition. He fits the personality of the defense, has provided an aggressive and physical presence for the interior and he’s a quality defender against the run. We know he can be more of a pass rush threat and this might just be ‘one of those years’ for him in terms of stats.

The simple fact is there aren’t many great interior defensive linemen in the league. Richardson isn’t Aaron Donald but he’s a cut above most of the other options out there. The Seahawks will either need a top-15 pick in the future or about $15-18m to spend in free agency if they want to find a player of this quality down the road. If anything, his lack of production in 2017 could lead to a discounted extension.

The argument against…

Teams are throwing money at the trenches. Offensive and defensive linemen are getting two or three times more than they were earning just a few years ago. Richardson could get a contract offer in the region of $13-16m a year. Lesser players have received big offers.

Malik Jackson for example is earning $14.25m a year in Jacksonville. Bad teams looking to make a big jump could look at the Jags’ and their big spending on the D-line and try to emulate their approach. It won’t be a big shock if Richardson gets an offer similar to Jackson’s. If that happens, Seattle will struggle to match and likely has to settle for a third round comp pick in 2019.

If they want to keep him at a big cost, it limits their ability to do much else. Unless Richardson is willing to take a discount or just doesn’t get the big offer because of a lack of 2017 production and some character concerns, they won’t have much money to retain the other names in this piece.

And consider this. If his average salary is more than $14m a year, he’d be the second highest paid player on the team behind only Russell Wilson. Are you comfortable with Sheldon Richardson being the second highest paid player on the roster? Currently the top five are Wilson, Sherman, Chancellor, Baldwin and Wagner (followed by Bennett and Thomas). That all makes perfect sense. Richardson at #2 ahead of some of those names? Not so much.

Paul Richardson

The argument for…

When Richardson has been healthy he’s looked really good. That goes back to his rookie season in 2014, the way he finished strongly in 2016 and this 2017 season where he’s scored six touchdowns and compiled 664 yards. After Doug Baldwin, he’s become the next most vital receiver — making explosive plays downfield and contributing in the short game too.

Richardson is capable of the spectacular. And for a team that loves exciting, dynamic, highlight reel plays from the skill positions — Richardson ticks that box.

He also looks like he’s really just getting started. It’s not unusual for a receiver to play his best football 3-4 years into a career. Golden Tate is a good example of that. Look at how Robert Woods has come on playing for the Rams. It’d be a shame to go this far with Richardson only to watch him go elsewhere and deliver on the major potential he’s started to show.

It’s also increasingly the Russell Wilson show in Seattle. They’ve started to invest more cap space into the offensive line. They kind of have a duty to keep Wilson’s receivers intact too. Especially the ones who are stepping up to make plays consistently.

The argument against…

They drafted Amara Darboh in round three a year ago and could potentially make a big saving by allowing Richardson to leave, putting their faith in a prospect they clearly liked a lot. It’d be a big risk to rely on a second year receiver but the Seahawks can’t pay everyone.

In many ways this is similar to the Bradley McDougald situation. The Seahawks began planning ahead with their 2017 draft. Darboh was a good hedge considering Jermaine Kearse and Richardson might be close to the end. Delano Hill could come in as a potential heir apparent to Kam Chancellor. Some of these younger draft picks are going to need an opportunity eventually.

Receiver contracts are also quite big at the moment. Alshon Jeffery just signed a deal worth $13m a year in Philadelphia. Jeffery has 732 yards and eight touchdowns in 2017 — so his numbers are quite similar to Richardson’s. Robert Woods was offered a $6.8m a year deal by the Rams despite a fairly underwhelming spell in Buffalo.

That $6-7m range might be the floor Richardson is looking at unless teams are put off by his injury history. In isolation that’s not an unreasonable sum of money for a good #2 receiver. Yet the Seahawks have multiple big decisions to make and are already paying a high number of players large salaries. Eventually they have to start making some tough decisions.

If you missed it earlier, I was invited onto a Field Gulls podcast to talk draft yesterday. Check it out by clicking here.

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Updated 2018 watch list: November 22nd

#1 Saquon Barkley (RB, Penn State)
His production stalled for a while but that’s as much on Penn State as it is Barkley. He’s an explosive athlete and an incredible playmaker, destined for greatness. Puts points on the board as a runner, receiver and returner. Will join Fournette, Gurley and Elliott in a growing group of young studs at RB.

#2 Quenton Nelson (G, Notre Dame)
Only knocked off top spot by Saquon Barkley. Nelson is nasty at the LOS with the mobility and desire to pull and get to the second level. Just a fantastic football player. Guards go early if they’re good enough — Nelson certainly is.

#3 Tim Settle (DT, Virginia Tech)
Redshirt sophomore so might not declare but Settle is ready for the NFL. He’s 6-3 and 328lbs but moves like a 290lber. Fantastic pass rusher with the size to work against the run. Tremendous prospect.

#4 Josh Rosen (QB, UCLA)
There are question marks about his personality but on the field Rosen is a surgeon. He ticks every box — accuracy, poise, ability to make every throw. His talent is worth taking a chance on in the top five.

#5 Bradley Chubb (DE, NC State)
Sensational athlete with great bloodlines (Nick Chubb’s cousin). Carries 275lbs superbly, can round the tackle with speed but also sets the edge vs the run. Lively personality and big production at NC State.

#6 Christian Wilkins (DT, Clemson)
Sheldon Richardson type — a compact, energetic D-tackle. Wilkins isn’t Aaron Donald or Ndamukong Suh as a pass rusher but he just doesn’t stop. His motor keeps revving, making plays sideline-to-sideline and in pursuit.

#7 Minkah Fitzpatrick (S, Alabama)
Having a great year for Alabama. Capable of dropping down and covering the slot, physical enough to play man-to-man but with the range to play as a roaming safety. Doesn’t give up any plays. Not outspoken, a reserved leader.

#8 Lamar Jackson (QB, Louisville)
Jackson compares favourably to Michael Vick and there aren’t enough good QB’s in the league to ignore a talent like that. He’s shown development as a passer. It’s been Jackson vs the world this year at Louisville.

#9 Vita Vea (DT, Washington)
Rare nose tackle. Watch him live and he’ll wow you with how much ground he covers. Stout against the run, plugs holes but shifts around the field in pursuit like a much lighter D-liner. Cornerstone defender.

#10 Clelin Ferrell (DE, Clemson)
Shaq Lawson type who could play five technique or power end. 7.5 sacks this season and plays bigger than his listed 6-5 and 260lbs. Might not be a sack specialist at the next level but will tie up an end.

#11 Baker Mayfield (QB, Oklahoma)
Sparky character and won’t appeal to the stuffed-shirt element in the NFL. More open minded coaches and scouts will see a playmaker who is adept at improvisation and keeping things alive. Accurate, in control. Will be very good.

#12 Damien Harris (RB, Alabama)
Underrated back who is averaging 8.2 YPC this year. Much better athlete than people realise — his Nike SPARQ combine matched Bryce Love’s despite carrying a lot more weight. A bit stiff stretching plays out wide but he’s fantastic at breaking off big north-south runs given a crease. Great in pass pro too.

#13 Taven Bryan (DE, Florida)
Florida’s season has collapsed and it’s tempered some of the attention their only genuine pro-prospect deserves. Bryan can play inside or out and wins with power and speed. Fun player to watch and his best football should come at the next level.

#14 Nick Chubb (RB, Georgia)
Bradley Chubb’s cousin and he’s basically a 225lbs version of the NC State pass rusher. Fantastic athlete pre-injury but looking back to his best now. Very serious individual. If the medical checks are fine and he matches his 2013 Nike SPARQ performance at the combine, he’ll go very early.

#15 Kerryon Johnson (RB, Auburn)
Another really underrated running back. Johnson has taken Auburn to a new level with his tough running style. He’s a great athlete once touted to play defensive back. Long legged runner similar to Chris Carson. Has a similar running style. One to watch this weekend in the Iron Bowl vs Alabama.

#16 Mike McGlinchey (T, Notre Dame)
Completely shut down Harold Landry when Notre Dame faced Boston College. That tape will be poured over by scouts and coaches in the off-season. Maybe won’t show to be a fantastic athlete at the combine but that wasn’t a problem for Taylor Decker.

#17 Maurice Hurst (DT, Michigan)
In a fairly middling season for Michigan, Hurst has been a real bright spot. Wins as a three technique and consistently disruptive. These types of players aren’t readily available and that should ensure Hurst goes early.

#18 Anthony Miller (WR, Memphis)
Miller is having a fantastic year and has a little OBJ to his playing style. A yardage and touchdown machine, Miller is appointment viewing. Fantastic backstory will appeal to teams — Miller has shown tremendous grit as a former walk-on.

#19 Billy Price (C, Ohio State)
Not a million miles behind Quenton Nelson. Price could play guard or center at the next level. Tenacious blocker who loves to get to the second level. Both Nelson and Price are aggressive, active and have the kind of mean streak teams will love.

#20 Connor Williams (T, Texas)
He’s back from his knee injury and has a chance to end the season strongly. There aren’t enough good left tackles in the league so Williams has a shot to go very early if he declares for the 2018 draft. Very athletic.

#21 Derrius Guice (RB, LSU)
Guice’s 2016 tape carried a lot of excitement. He was lightning quick, physical and explosive. 2017 has been a bit of a disappointment despite a couple of really good games (eg Ole Miss). Guice is good but is he that much better than Damien Harris?

#22 Courtland Sutton (WR, SMU)
Sutton’s frame reminds you of Dez Bryant. SMU haven’t had a great year and it’s maybe dented his stock. His talent and potential is unquestionable though and he could provide real value in a draft class light on good receivers.

#23 Derwin James (S, Florida State)
When James squares up a ball carrier and delivers a jarring hit, you get excited. Sadly there are occasions where he’s covering the open field and looks so stiff, you wonder if he has more limitations that people thought after a strong freshman campaign (and an injury-hit sophomore season).

#24 Roquan Smith (LB, Georgia)
Nowhere near as exciting as Jarrad Davis a year ago but Smith roams around the field as a tone-setting inside linebacker. Not a big playmaker but rarely puts a foot wrong. Has shown up as much as anyone when watching Georgia’s defense this year.

#25 Bryce Love (RB, Stanford)
The latest big-production running back at Stanford. He’s smaller, listed at only 5-10 and 196lbs. He only ran a 4.47 at the Nike combine while weighing in the 180’s. There’s no doubting he’s an excellent player and a legit Heisman candidate — but will he be less of an X-factor at the next level?

Note — Sam Darnold (QB, USC) and Trey Adams (T, Washington) were not included. Numerous reports suggest both players will likely opt against turning pro in 2018.

Value prospects to keep an eye on

Javon Wims (WR, Georgia)
Georgia has a knack of producing big, athletic pass catchers who fly under the radar until the combine. Wims is 6-4 and 215lbs and has become a go-to target for the Bulldog’s freshman QB. High-points the ball, makes plays.

Rashaad Penny (RB, San Diego State)
Fits Seattle’s size profile at running back. Physical and fast — Penny is a productive return man and could be a diamond for someone in the second or third round.

Hercules Mata’afa (DE, Washington State)
Mata’afa is a pretty unique player, rushing inside at just 6-2 and 252lbs. A lack of size could hamper his draft credentials — but he’s just such an active pass rusher, he’s worth a shot at the next level.

Marquise Haynes (LB, Ole Miss)
Haynes stood out in 2016 but has been lost in the wash with Ole Miss regressing under a messy coaching situation. He has 7.5 sacks. A lack of size will put off some — but he’s a playmaker.

Derrick Nnadi (DT, Florida State)
Like Haynes, Nnadi is suffering a bit because FSU are having a down year. He’s stout against the run but offers enough pass rush to be a Brandon Mebane-style one technique in the NFL. Big potential.

Josey Jewell (LB, Iowa)
Not the biggest or the fastest player — but Jewell is a hard-hitting, passionate linebacker who plays with his hair on fire every week. The type of guy you want on the roster and at the very least will provide some special teams value early in his career.

Harrison Phillips (DT, Stanford)
Phillips is getting some nice publicity after a strong year. There’s even been some first round talk but that’s a bit rich for me. Henry Anderson was bigger and a fantastic athlete but he only went in round three in 2015. Phillips might go in a similar range.

Greg Gaines (DT, Washington)
I’m a huge Greg Gaines fan. Watching him next to Vita Vea is a joy for anyone who loves watching good run defense. He’s also more active than he gets credit for as a pass rusher. Gaines is a very intriguing prospect and it’ll be interesting to see how he fares in the NFL.

Nick Chubb could still land in round one

In our recent review of running backs (a safe bet target for the Seahawks in the off-season), we noted the underrated talent of Damien Harris (Alabama) and Kerryon Johnson (Auburn). It’s the Iron Bowl this weekend, so a good opportunity to see both on the same field.

Today it’s time to look at Nick Chubb.

We’ve talked a lot about Chubb over the years. His explosive entrance at Georgia, replacing the injured Todd Gurley. The knee injury that threatened his career. His fairly modest 2016 return. His decision not to declare. A 2017 that saw a return to something like top form.

It’s been quite a college career so far. He’s only the fifth player in SEC history to record three 1000-yard seasons (Alex Collins is one of the others). He’s up to fourth for career rushing yards in the SEC (recently passing Bo Jackson). He could still end with a SEC title and a playoff berth.

We’ve talked about Chubb as a potential Seahawks option for the reasons outlined in the Damien Harris piece. Seattle seems to have a ‘type’ at running back. Here’s a reminder:

Here are the running backs drafted by the Seahawks between 2012 and 2016:

Robert Turbin — 5-10, 222lbs
Spencer Ware — 5-10, 228lbs
Christine Michael — 5-10, 220lbs
C.J. Prosise — 6-0, 220lbs
Alex Collins — 5-10, 217lbs
Chris Carson — 6-0, 218lbs

Some of these players either didn’t test at the combine or had reasons for underperforming (injury, illness). We can make some physical comparisons though:

Forty yard dash

Robert Turbin: 4.50
Christine Michael: 4.54
C.J. Prosise: 4.48
Chris Carson: 4.58

Broad jump

Robert Turbin: 122 inches
Christine Michael: 125 inches
C.J. Prosise: 121 inches
Chris Carson: 130 inches

Vertical jump

Robert Turbin: 36 inches
Christine Michael: 43 inches
C.J. Prosise: 35.5 inches
Chris Carson: 37 inches

Short shuttle

Robert Turbin: 4.31
Christine Michael: 4.02
C.J. Prosise: DNP
Chris Carson: DNP

Bench press

Robert Turbin: 28 reps
Christine Michael: 27 reps
C.J. Prosise: DNP
Chris Carson: 23 reps

Look at the similarities here across the board. It doesn’t mean they’ll never sway from this profile. They did sign Eddie Lacy after all. It’s not completely down to physical profile either. Attitude, running style or versatility also seem to be important.

Yet when we’re running through possible targets, physical profile is something to consider.

Chubb is a perfect fit in many ways. He’s 5-10 and 225lbs, so he ticks the size box. He’s also an incredibly explosive athlete.

If you weren’t aware, Nick is the cousin of Bradley Chubb at NC State. Bradley is a pass rusher with 10 sacks this year, destined to go in the top-10. He carries 6-4 and 275lbs perfectly, is quick on his feet with all of the speed, explosion and agility you want from a top-tier pass rusher.

Nick has the bloodlines and is basically a 5-10, 225lbs version of Bradley.

He ran a 4.47 forty at 5-10 and 217lbs at the Nike SPARQ combine in 2013, jumped a 40-inch vertical and ran a 4.12 in the short shuttle. His SPARQ score of 143.91 is elite at any position.

In comparison, Christine Michael’s SPARQ score was 147.4. The Seahawks drafted Michael with their first pick in the 2013 draft despite some fairly substantial character concerns (he was basically banished from Texas A&M’s line-up). They took him because of the extreme athletic potential he offered.

If Michael had the focus to match the body — he could be one of the NFL’s leading running backs.

Chubb’s athletic profile from 2013 is similar to Michael’s. His story, however, is obviously very different.

This is a player who has battled adversity with the knee injury, fought to recover in time for the 2016 season and then snubbed the chance to turn pro because he wanted to come back and leave a mark at Georgia. Go out on his terms.

He’s football 24/7 with a steely, serious personality.

If he tests at the combine (we have to at least be prepared that he might not) and performs anywhere near his 2013 marks — he’ll be talked about as a first round pick. He might not even be available to the Seahawks.

The key is — has he made a full recovery? It was a really bad injury. How much explosion did he lose? And do the medical checks show his knee has fully recovered?

We can’t answer those questions for a long time yet — but it’s encouraging to see plays like this:

In his weekly ‘risers and sliders’ piece, Tony Pauline talked up Chubb’s first round credentials:

“The Kentucky contest was a nice rebound game for Chubb, who was held to 27 rushing yards against Auburn one week ago. The Wildcats boast one of the better rushing defenses in the SEC and rank just below Auburn in yards allowed per game (121.9). Chubb shredded the Wildcats for 151 yards on 15 carries with 2 TD’s. The Georgia ball carrier is often lost in the shuffle as much of the talk focuses on Saquon Barkley of Penn State while his own teammate Sony Michel steals a bit of thunder. Make no doubt about it, if Chubb checks out medically he’s worthy of being selected in the late portion of round one and projects as a feature runner for the next level.”

I watched the Kentucky game live and it was a fantastic performance. Last week against Auburn was a grind. The Tigers’ D-line dominated throughout and made Georgia’s running attack look very similar to Seattle’s. It was easy to watch that game and imagine Chubb and running partner Sony Michel wearing navy blue and toiling for 2-3 YPC. This Kentucky performance was a reminder to hold that thought for now. Georgia will either get a rematch against Auburn or a contest with Alabama in the SEC Championship game. Let’s see how they do there.

As Pauline notes, Kentucky has a good run-defense. Here’s how well they handled Chubb:

Look at the initial patience to let the gaps develop, the explosion Chubb shows when he finds his crease, the agility to move to his left and the acceleration to run away from the defense and score. It’s a special play.

Chubb is a nice blend of a lot of running styles. He can be shifty when he needs to be, shrinking at the LOS to find a hole and picking his way through traffic. He has some power and physicality to his game. He also has enough speed to make a good run a great run.

Here’s a good example of some of those skills combined on one play:

One thing he does better than Damien Harris is his ability to stretch plays wide when needed to max out the run. Harris is no slouch — but his lateral mobility isn’t great. He’s better running north-south.

In the play below Chubb makes the defender miss at the LOS but what he does next is exceptional. He sees his forward progress blocked but rather than take what’s there and grind out a handful, he quickly changes direction and darts to the left hand side. He finds the space and has enough speed to turn the run into a chunk play:

Here’s another example:

Chubb’s athleticism tends to be underrated, possibly because of his build. To look at him you’d probably compare him to Michael Turner (who was actually 10lbs heavier than Chubb).

Then you see this lateral mobility and the acceleration and you realise he’s different. He has the advantage of a compact, powerful running frame but enough quicks and explosive qualities to work in most schemes. He can cut at the LOS, he can run outside — but he can also pound it up the middle.

The Seahawks will have options in the 2018 draft if they want to aggressively upgrade at running back. The lack of a second or third round pick limits them somewhat — but it also possibly increases the chances they look at the position early.

Nick Chubb, Damien Harris and Kerryon Johnson are all possibilities, whether that’s first round or after a small trade down. They’re really good RB’s.

The key for Chubb is whether he has retained his incredible athletic profile post-injury and whether he gets a clean medical report at the combine.

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