Written by Kip Earlywine
Things just got very interesting.
In what could be argued is the most surprising declaration so far, Darron Thomas let it be known last night that he will forgo his senior season to enter the 2012 draft. Thomas isn’t a guy who’s (yet) talked about as a major quarterback prospect, but it seems pretty likely he will be in short order. He’s 6’3″, 215 lbs, and will likely post a very strong 40 time. He led the #6 offense in college football this year, and the year before he led Oregon to the National Championship game (the #2 offense nationally that year). Obviously, those offenses were built on the running game, but while Thomas could perhaps be labeled a bit of a game manager, he is capable of carrying an offense on his back from time to time. Thomas has a lot of similarities to Robert Griffin, and is, in my opinion, easily superior as a prospect to Ryan Tannehill. Robert Griffin could go as high as #2 overall, and if you buy into the source Rob cited the other day, there is a very real top 15 buzz for Ryan Tannehill right now.
Obviously, this could put Thomas right in Seattle’s wheelhouse at #11 or #12. That might seem high, but consider the alleged draft stock for Tannehill or how highly Jake Locker was drafted last year. Thomas may not deserve that high a grade, but remember that quarterbacks are usually over-drafted. Thomas wouldn’t have passed up a shot at a 2012 National Championship to be a 7th round pick. Perhaps he received a good review from the NFL draft committee?
Regardless of where Thomas actually ends up drafted, he is exactly the kind of quarterback Seattle is looking for, and if their interest in Colin Kaepernick last year was an indication, I expect them to rate Thomas highly. As of right now, Thomas is a bit of an under-rated prospect, but if Tannehill can fly up the boards, so can Thomas. I’ll post more thoughts on Thomas over the next few days.
In the meantime, here’s a video of Thomas playing in the Rose Bowl (full game). I’m not sure how long it will last as that seems like a pretty blatant copyright issue, but its there right now! You can find even more games in thornsx’s corresponding youtube channel.
Seems at least a bit premature considering the following sentiments.
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/7470/darron-thomas
However if he is still there in round 4 it might happen.
I’m intrigued. Decent completion percentage. Good size with obvious mobility as a plus. Good Touchdown to Interception Ratio.
I’m not sure why a QB with his skill sets would need to switch positions.
Kip-
I live in Oregon and by default I am of course an Oregon sports fan. With that said, I would be very uneasy drafting Thomas to play QB at the NFL level. I have serious questions about his ability to play his best in big games (make clutch throws/decisions). Granted, he looked really good in the Rose Bowl so that did restore my faith a bit but to be honest, I’m glad he’s going because I like the potential of the QB’s backing him up better. I’m not the only Oregon fan that believes that either. Having said that if the Hawks draft him I’ll gladly admit my error in judgement should he turn out to be a great QB. I really, really don’t think he will though. If I’m not mistaken, he went to Oregon largely because none of the other major college programs wanted him to play QB. He’s also not as mobile as people think.
4/5 at best and if I was the hawks, no way. Doubt we can trade up (which is fine by me), so at 11/12 it should be an playmaker (offense or defense). Rush lb or de or richardson. If not, I would love to trade down and get more picks and maybe wright
If there isn’t a trade up, the following QB’s may be available to the Seahawks, the real question though is…..at which pick?…..12?, 44?, 76?, 108?, 140>?
-Darron Thomas, QB, 6-3, 215, Oregon (currently unranked, projected rd 4/5)
211/339, 62.2%, 2761-yds., 8.1 yds/avg, 33-TD, 7-Int, 11 sacks, 158.7-QBR
-Ryan Tannehill, QB, 6-4, 222, 4.65/40, Texas A&M, (currently #24-overall)
327/531, 61.6%, 3744-yds, 7.1 yds/avg, 29-TD, 15-Int, 9 sacks, 133.2-QBR
-Brock Osweiler, QB, 6-7, 240, 4.83/40, Arizona St., (currently #107-overall)
326/516, 63.2%, 4036-yds, 7.8yds/avg, 26-TD, 13-Int, 28 sacks, 140.5-QBR
-Chandler Harnish, QB, 6-2, 220, 4.72/40, No. Illinois, (currently #143-overall)
237/384, 61.7%, 3216-yds, 8.4 yds/avg, 28-TD, 6-Int, 11 sacks, 153.0-QBR
-Austin Davis, QB, 6-1, 221, 4.78/40 So. Mississippi, (currently #292-overall)
286/475, 60.2%, 3496-yds, 7.4 yds/avg., 30-TD, 11-Int, 17 sacks, 138.2-QBR
LINK: http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/TSX/2012_QB
I think that a lot of people just look at the physical abilities for the QB position, without understanding the mental requirements the position demands. I think this is why TJack is limited as well. It has been documented by numerous experts that the game is just a little too fast for him and that’s why is topped out. Nobody ever questions his immense physical talent, he has that to spare.
That’s why I wept when we didn’t grab Ryan Mallett when we had the chance. While I agree he isn’t mobile like some players, I felt that he had the uncanny ability to progress through his reads in miliseconds and process the information to the correct read. Then he also has the cannon to make the throw. I predict he will be a star in a few years, especially with B&B as his mentors.
This is why I’m not real good at watching one game tape on a QB and making a great decision. College games are not as complex or as fast as the pro game, and a QB that doesn’t make good decisions during crunch time in a college game will not do so at the next level either.
To prove my incompetence at QB ratings, I happen to really like Kellen Moore. I see a young Joe Montana in him. I think he is super smart, and can use that brain to maximize his physical shortcomings
Okay Rob, for lack of a better place to ask this I ask it here, also this is something other Seahawks fans need to be direly concerned about (even you Tom): anyone watching Sunday Countdown today heard the same thing I did. Adam Schefter speaking in regard to Matt Flynn’s future: “Considering GM John Schneider was the General Manager when Green Bay drafted him, the Seattle Seahawks will take a long hard look at Matt Flynn.” Not one single other team was mentioned. Not even hinted at. And the premise of the question was Matt Flynn’s future. So my question Rob: how concerned should we fans be that Matt Flynn is potentially the target of the QBOTF for Schneider and Carroll? I believe it would catastrophic and essentially the nail in JS and PC’s coffin, but Schefter is a guy with resources and inside information. And Flynn means multiple years for probably double what Jackson is making, probably no QB drafted before round 6, DEFINITELY no remote possibility of trading up for Robert Griffin, and we remain static in our approach to QB. Find some other team’s backup who has taken trips to the bathroom in the stadium than snaps in games and has proven absolutely nothing SUBSTANTIAL on the field. This whole Flynn business makes me incredibly nervous, so what’s your take? I know you yourself would not invest in Flynn, but honestly as Seahawk fans, should we get ready for the sucker punch and prepare to see “Seattle and Matt Flynn agree to this many years for this much money” to scroll by on the ESPN Ticker?
Couplet things to consider-
First, this blog has a really strong track record of projecting QB’s going high before the rest of the football media does(Cam Newton). To me reading this blog is like reading the blog of an underground music critic who introduces you to bands way before you would hear about them from the mainstream. Who knows where Thomas is gonna be drafted but I wouldn’t be surprised if in the next couple months we start hearing about Thomas in the first round and end up feeling like a bunch of draft hipsters saying, ” I knew that Thomas was gonna be a first rounder way before you did, dude.”
Second, even if we drafted Thomas in the first he is clearly the kind of QB who would sit his first year. Think Tennessee and Jake Locker
Finally, gonna be a total armchair offensive coordinator and say that Thomas could be the QB to blend the two differing offensive styles that we used this year(no huddle and smash mouth run first) to create a new offensive style in the NFL. Other teams have gone no huddle but at the expense of the run. Can you imagine how gassed a team would get if you were a run heavy no huddle team?
In the storied history of the Green Bay Packers, Matt Flynn has the record for the most touchdown passes in a single game. And it was a competitive game. To me, that is SUBSTANTIAL. Flynn’s exploits on the field during the regular season are limited to be sure in terms of games played, but they are superior to those of the last Green Bay back-up we brought in to play. And he turned out alright.
Gramsci – Being superior to Matt Hasselbeck as a back-up in Green Bay is completely irrelevant. For example, Hasselbeck came to Seattle to play for the coach who drafted him – in the same system he had in Green Bay. Are the Seahawks going to sign the GB coaches too? Because they run a very different offensive scheme to Seattle. Also, having a single-game record like that means nothing in terms of judging whether Flynn can be an every-week starter.
Jarhead – I wouldn’t worry too much. That’s merely 2+2=5 stuff because Schneider happened to be in Green Bay’s front office. Is anyone even sure JS rated the guy? It’s not like he was the decision maker for the Packers, and Flynn went in round seven anyway. It would be a departure from the quarterbacks this team has signed so far. And Schefter merely says Seattle will consider it. Of course they will, so will every other team without a QB. It’d be complacent not to. But it doesn’t mean the ultimate decision will be to offer him a big contract.
Wow, I don’t see it at all. Even if you want to use Kaepernick as a comparison, the production isn’t there and Thomas benefited from a far better supporting cast. It’s possible the NFL is that QB crazy right now but I can’t imagine Thomas in the first round, or even the first three rounds, as anything but an enormous mistake.
I’ll be interested to see how he fares in workouts. I’ve always liked Thomas, but felt like he hadn’t gotten much better this year while I was expecting a leap forward.
Still, I like his tools and that should really help him in the process.
Rob, please educate me how “very different” Mike Bevell’s version of the West Coast Offense is from Mike McCarthy’s. Is Brock Huard wrong when he says that they have the same terminology? And how someone can say that Flynn’s record-setting performance “means nothing” is beyond me. It is fair to say that his limited success is not proof that he will replicate those numbers as a starter, but it is a silly bias to totally ignore what he has done on the field.
For starters Gramsci, it’s Darrell Bevell not Mike Bevell. Secondly, the term ‘West Coast Offense’ is so generic these days, it’s almost worthless. I don’t doubt there is similar terminology, but Seattle’s offense has a lot of slow, developing routes, more emphasis on boot legs and play action and uses a heavy run game with zone blocking. Green Bay will spread the field with a lot of multi-WR sets and will use decoy’s to create open space underneath and create favorable match-ups. The demands on a quarterback in the two systems is quite different, as I’ve talked about in the past. Seattle puts a lot of emphasis on mobility for it’s developing routes, because they need the QB to extend plays. They’ve signed three QB’s so far with plus arm strength because they want to drive the ball down field, throw on the run and use comebacks. Green Bay have a system where they’re comfortable going to 4-5 different targets, they’ll have Jennings run a route purposely to open up Jordy Nelson or Finley the TE. The system highlights the intended receiver on each down, or two options, but often it’s not the #1 receiver on the team. The quarterback has to essentially sell the play and execute. Rodgers has mastered this and was a former first round level talent anyway. Flynn knows this system, which helps, but it doesn’t require him to exert too much improvisation or to get out of the pocket. He can execute fairly well, no doubt about it. But that can only get you so far in a system that challenges the QB more physically, as I believe Seattle’s system does.
Now look, I have no ‘bias’ to Matt Flynn. Why would I? I judge players based on tape study, and I’ve studied Flynn at LSU and also published game tape of his two starts in full on this blog. I’ve gone through exactly why I don’t think he has every-week potential in the Seahawks system and why I don’t think Seattle will sign him this off-season. Having a single game record has no direct impact on whether a player is good enough to start every week. You can’t use that in judgement, you can only use what you see on tape and other intangibles we cannot discover without sitting down with the guy. He had a big game against Detroit statistically, yet I never even look at numbers or records when making a judgement. It’ll be the same next year when Matt Barkley breaks every record at USC – it’ll mean squat. We’ll judge Barkley next year on his 2012 tape and what we’ve seen in his other three years as a starter. Not one game. Not with numbers.
Getting things back on topic now…
I’ve never thought of Thomas as even a logical NFL prospect and found the news completely baffling at the time. When I’ve watched Oregon play, I was never intrigued enough by his performance to consider a pro-future. I will go back and study the tape starting with the Rose Bowl to see if I missed on that impression, but my first thought when I heard this news was, “why?”
Of course it’s Darrell Bevell, my apologies. When you watch the tape of Flynn, how do you go about the process of evaluating? Do you, for example, know what play has been called in the huddle? As a football fan and far from an expert, I would find it impossible to watch the film of a quarterback and evaluate his play without knowing the play that was called, the defense that he is facing, and the options that the quarterback has as a result. How can you make a valid evaluation of any player — much less a quarterback — absent that information? If you have ever listened to Hugh Millen on KJR’s “Hardcore Football” you will know what I am talking about. Hugh knows the plays, the defense, and the resulting options that the QB must meet. Do you evaluate the tape in a similar manner?
Gramsci – if you prefer the way Hugh Millen does things, that’s cool. Maybe this just isn’t the blog for you? I break down and publish tape, study up on other factors that can play into a judgement such as coaching background and scheme and offer up opinions without agenda. I’m not here to justify my way of doing things, we’re here for anyone who’s interested and wants to talk draft.
I would disagree about production. How is an 8.1 YPA and 30/6 TD/INT not producing? Obviously, he has some crazy weapons at running back. It wouldn’t be unfair to diminish his production to a degree, but he did produce. And its not like he got all his yards throwing to his running backs.
Everyone that is saying late rounds for Thomas right now hasn’t looked at him closely and is only saying so based on his current non-existent hype level. However, as scouts and draftniks dig deeper with Thomas- they are going to like what they see. He’s a guy with a lot of 1st round attributes who has room for growth- not unlike Ryan Tannehill or Jake Locker.
Robert Griffin pretty much soaked up all the credit for Baylor’s big year, despite the fact that Baylor had the 4th best rushing game among BCS schools (Oregon was #2 among BCS), and despite the fact that he had a 1st round caliber WR in Wright.
Oregon’s offense is very similar to Baylor, but with so much talent at RB, combined with Kelly scheming his offense so strongly around a speed rushing game, that it made LaMichael James the star and Thomas part of the background. Hence, the enormous hype differential.
However, I think as people look deeper into Thomas, his draft profile will rise very quickly. He may not be the center of Oregon’s offense- he’s more of a game manager with talent- but a lot of team’s, particularly Seattle, are just fine with that.
My worry with Thomas is his presnap reads and route progressions. The Ducks call all presnap reads from the sidelines. Also it seems that Thomas takes quite a while to get into the feel of the game. Early throws are normally high until he settles in. Usually sometime in the middle of the 2nd quarter
I guess I should say this right now to make sure my position is clear:
There are a lot of people who will look at Darron Thomas and think “college QB.” I get that. But I also think that in the current NFL environment, teams are becoming increasingly open minded about drafting unconventional QBs. Tim Tebow was a first rounder. Cam Newton was rated by many as a late 1st round pick, but went #1 overall. Colin Kaepernick and Andy Dalton went from mid round fliers to high 2nd round picks. Robert Griffin went from a late round afterthought to a potential top 5 pick in one season. None of those guys played in pro-style systems. None of them, outside or arguably Newton, were polished QBs either.
In Pete Carroll’s end of season presser, he expressed a view that I suspect is gaining traction league wide- which is that offenses at the college level have advanced rapidly in recent years, and QBs coming out of college are more NFL ready than they would have been in years past.
Because of this, there has been a bit of a de-emphasis on pro-style experience and coachable flaws, and a much stronger emphasis on raw potential and playmaking ability. Thomas has a lot of 1st round caliber tools, can fill up a highlight reel with “wow” throws, and played the kind of role on his team that would interest the Seahawks.
Of course, I’m rooting for Thomas to stay under the radar. I just don’t think he will.
I’ve never watched Darron Thomas and thought “NFL QB,” much less “1st Round Pick.” To me he looks like RGIII looked last year, when everyone rated him as late round/undrafted and a possible WR conversion project. It’s possible DT is going to make a similar leap forward, but it seems risky to take him early before seeing evidence of it.
Kip, I respect your opinion and greatly enjoy your stuff, but I’ve watched most of the games Thomas has played and I just don’t see an NFL QB. Arm isn’t great, mechanics need work, and he has real accuracy issues. Even on completions you routinely see WR’s having to adjust and reach back for balls, limiting what they can do after the catch. His athleticism is a bit overrated too I think. Solid athlete but definitely not a burner or anything like some think. I think he owes his numbers to Kelly’s system and the strong word amongst my UO friends is that he left because he feared he would lose his starting spot to Bennett next year. I don’t see how he gets drafted any earlier than the late rounds at best.
Would be interesting to buy something he is not right now. That said, Cam Newton has blown me away. Perhaps it is just my gut feeling that he is not the personality that Cam is. That is a pretty weak reason to draft or not draft anybody. Interestingly enough, the gut feel is more often right than the numbers. At least for me.
I would go 3rd round at the highest, with Terrell Pryor being the benchmark. Similar players. If Seattle were to draft this guy in the 1st… I would be aghast (image of Cam Newton lighting up Altanta here in Charlotte flashes in mind… torn).
Kip, you seem like you have a good read on Thomas.
Kip, Rob,
I wonder how he compares to Dennis Dixon? I think the common thoughts on Dixon were/are that he could be a good pro QB, and I think he may be a free agent this year (?). I know Dixon asked for a trade, and I’ve been curious if he would be a good fit for the seahawks? But back to Thomas, I do think he could be an upgrade over Jackson. He has already played in much bigger games than Jackson ever has, and played well in those games, not perfectly, but well. Another aspect I’m interested in is his mental/emotional approach to the game. Is he the type of QB who wants to put the team on his back and will them to a game winning drive? I think RGIII is that kind of guy.
Hey Rob, do you think Darron Thomas could be a potential pick for the hawks? and if so maybe you could do some write ups and some scouting on him and give your opinion when you have the time. From what ive heard he reminds me of a Joe Webb, but i could be wrong.
he did play in a heavy run Offense didnt he? L. James and Kenjon Barner and De’anthony Thomas. So im wondering if he will show alot at the combine if he decides to attend. His passing stats werent that bad this year, i didnt watch any games so i cant comment on awareness or intangibales (sp?) so im hoping others can fill those blanks in.
Thanks long time reader have a good night
David
Call me crazy but until I see what Josh Portis can do I don’t want another “Prospect” at qb, I WANT A STARTER… Take the charecter concerns away that lead Portis to transfering schools & not having a chance to shine in a D1 school and how much diffrence do we actually have? Heres my point alot of ppl rate Janoris Jenkins high and he would probably go before Morris Claiborne “IF” he didn’t have charecter concerns. My point is teams sometimes miss out on better prospects due to charecter concerns. Josh has a year in our system & Darron would probably need a year or longer of grooming so why risk a 1st round pick? I could understand a pick like this 3yrs ago but were way ahead of schedule & need to swing for the fences on our qb position. As it looks now Whitehurst is out which makes Portis #2 (To early to call I know) unless we get a guy that can beat out Tavares (Crossing fingers) he’ll start. We all can agree that the Seahawks are ready for a deep playoff run but we need a above average qb who goes threw progressions, shows poise, & has the “It” factor & Tavares doesn’t. We keep taking shots at prospects instead of going all in for a Franchise guy we could look like the Cowboys before Romo stuck trying prospects in games at qb attempting to catch lightnig in a bottle while a potential Super Bowl contending team goes to waste. Am I pushing the panic button YES lol! Don’t like Dallas but they came to mind trying Anthony Wright, Drew Henson, Quincy Carter, & Chad hutchinson before hitting on Romo. Our front office is amazing but it’s more pressure now than ever with looming free agents & not regressing like Tampa did. No matter what move they make I’ll support it because I once, ok more than once doubted and looked silly lol.
Hi WIlliambryan & David,
I’m not in a great position to critique Darron Thomas because although I’ve watched a lot of Oregon the last two years, I’ve never got the feeling he was destined to be a logical NFL option. For those reasons, I haven’t sat down and studied his game to get a feel for what he brings to the table. My initital reaction to this news was ‘why?’ and a lot of Oregon fans seem to be suggesting he’s turning pro to avoid losing his job and sitting next year anyway. On the other hand, Kip rates him so I’m going to sit down and take a closer look soon.
Please no.
I only watched one game of his, last year vs. Washington, but my impression was that he had severe trouble connecting with wide-open receivers, often overthrowing them by miles, and that his shaky passing was holding them back. He executed Oregon’s atypical offense well enough for a Rose Bowl, yet there still seemed rumors backup Bryan Bennett was the better quarterback.
Please no.
So far John and Pete have not really drafted a Qb, though I doubt that happens this year. However, this FA list from roto bears a look.
http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/39667/59/nfl-free-agent-master-list
I have watched every second of every game Darron Thomas has played for the Ducks and feel reasonably comfortable giving the amateur’s take on Darron Thomas as a potential pro qb:
1. He has incredible poise and has shown to be a winner (22-3 as a starter). He always shows up in big games, though it might take some time for him to get it going. He has that dreaded “moxie” to which people often refer- for some that will matter, for others, it won’t.
2. His numbers suggest that he is an extremely accurate quarterback- this is only partly true. Much of the Oregon passing games revolves around screens, bubble screens, and quick outs. In this past year, there has been little vertical passing (as much the fault of the wide receivers though). He also benefits from teams playing eight in the box to stop the zone-read running game.
3. His mechanics are very shaky. He has a long pitcher’s wind-up; it has gotten him into trouble (see the fumble lost in Wisconsin game). It also occasionally causes him to throw the ball high (see interception over the middle in Wisconsin game). Despite the long wind-up, he only has an average arm.
4. He is willing to go through his progressions. He isn’t a one-read only quarterback. He probably needs to do so more quickly, but he has greatly improved in this area at Oregon.
5. Not as mobile as one would think. I would be surprised if he ran faster than a 4.8 at the combine. Make no mistake: he is not RGIII (who is much faster, more elusive, accurate, and a stronger arm). He is certainly no Ryan Mallett, but for those thinking he will have the speed and mobility of Cam Newton, Tim Tebow, Dennis Dixon, etc., you will be disappointed.
6. He is a leader and fearless. He came into a Boise State game as a true freshman and really took control of the huddle and almost led Oregon back to a victory. Again, this can often be overrated though.
Final thought: Oregon fans are not worried in losing Thomas’ talent and skills, as the poster above said, the back-ups are arguably more talented in running and throwing. However, we will undoubtedly miss his natural gift of poise and leadership. He was a winner for Oregon. That said, I wouldn’t take him before the seventh (maybe sixth) round and would only do so if you were willing to spend the time and energy to overhaul his mechanics.
Let me also say that I in no way criticize his decision (more than likely based on family situations). This class was setting up to be a poor quarterback class, he was getting more competition from his understudies, and the offense he was running, speed, mechanics, etc. were not likely to change or improve the following season. Even if he had exploded his senior season, he wouldn’t have greatly raised his stock. Now was as good of a time as any.
I will admit that I am not optimistic about his chances, but I will certainly be rooting for him. And if there is any Duck that might overcome the odds, it would be Darron. Good luck, #5!
Kip,
I have to laugh. Didn’t Rob just say that this site doesn’t do “overblown hype” and within 24 hours, you’re overblowing DThomas hype?
“Obviously, this could put Thomas right in Seattle’s wheelhouse at #11 or #12.”
In Seattle’s wheelhouse at #11 or #12? This isn’t Pujols taking some junk curveball “in his wheelhouse” and depositing into the seats 400 feet away, this is a college QB that falls into your scattershot theory in the later rounds. No thanks!
I guess the “overblown hype” theory I mentioned indeed holds true. I told you I only corroborate with facts…. 🙂
Tom – I haven’t specifically scouted Thomas, have you? Kip’s offering an opinion here, I’m sure he’ll back it up or improve upon that impression with further tape review. I enjoy your thoughts on prospects and the quality of debate you bring to the table, but can we stop the sniping?
We have a better prospect with Portis, wish we could have seen him play at the end of the year.
I’m similar to Bostonhawk in that I have watched every Oregon game for the past 2 seasons and agree with almost all of what he has to say. The main points I will agree with is the accuracy comments, in reference to his benefiting from people stacking the box, the heavy reliance of screens and passes to the perimeter, the long windup, and finally the missing of some open receivers. The mechanics in terms of the windup (from the untrained-eye-test) are also a concern.