Let’s run through what we discovered today.
1. Adam Schefter reported the Seahawks had turned down a fresh offer from the Dallas Cowboys. They were willing to trade a second round pick for Earl Thomas. The Seahawks said no.
2. Mike Fisher confirmed the report, noting Cowboys COO Stephen Jones made the bid.
4. Ian Rapoport added the Cowboys ‘tried like crazy’ to get Thomas but are now out. Rapoport added in a separate tweet that the Seahawks waived Thomas’ hold out fines and he will now play out the final year of his contract in Seattle.
5. Clarence Hill is reporting the Seahawks want a first round pick for Thomas.
So here’s the bit I’m struggling with. The Seahawks have just watched Jimmy Graham, Paul Richardson and Sheldon Richardson depart in free agency. They didn’t sign any big-money replacements. They filled out their roster efficiently. And yet due to the balance of the system, they’re not expected to receive any compensatory picks for the three players who departed.
If/when Thomas inevitably joins the Dallas Cowboys in 2019, the same thing could easily happen again. The Seahawks are going to need to make some moves in free agency, even if they aren’t big players at the top of the market. Any hope of recouping a third round comp pick likely rests on:
1. Thomas getting a good offer in a stale safety market
2. Their willingness to let others (eg Frank Clark) depart to protect any possible pick for Thomas
3. Not doing much in free agency despite only currently owning picks in rounds 1,3,4 and 5 of the 2019 draft
Standing tall in the face of pressure and saying, ‘we will not sell for anything less than our stated price’ is admirable sometimes. Certainly the Seahawks have won the short-term tug of war. They’ve forced Thomas to report, they haven’t bowed to his demands for a new deal or a trade and they haven’t given him away on the cheap.
Yet in the long term they will not be the winners if Thomas just walks away in free agency and by next years draft, the Seahawks are left without a second round pick.
Gregg Bell from the Tacoma News Tribune tweeted earlier that John Schneider had “Zero need to back off his demands.” This isn’t strictly true though. Thomas’ contract is coming to an end. So unless you’re prepared to receive zero compensation, there is a need to consider what teams are actually prepared to offer.
If the Seahawks passed on a second round pick for one last year of Earl Thomas, is that a logical move? Especially with the team seemingly ill-prepared to make a serious challenge for the Super Bowl?
If they’re willing to reconsider extending Thomas’ contract, that changes things. Thomas doesn’t seem to be in the mood to negotiate per his Instagram post. “The disrespect has been well noted and will not be forgotten.” It’s hardly a starting point to re-open talks. And while the franchise tag is a possibility — it’d likely just provoke another long stand-off in 2019.
A season of Earl Thomas will always be a pleasure to witness. He will rightly be remembered as one of Seattle’s best. But the Seahawks need future picks to properly re-set this roster. They only have five in the 2019 draft. They need more.
We’ll see by April whether they wish they had Dallas’ second rounder after all.
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This is great news for two reasons:
10 It makes Seahawks more competitive in the secondary. Even if you like the other safeties (and I do), there is no question that having Earl Thomas back there will make the Seahawks better. Plus, if they did start with Tedric Thompson or Bradley – who would replace them if they are injured?
2) His leadership and knowledge will help the secondary learn their assignments.
Seahawks holding out for a first round pick now – lets see if some championship team has a safety get injured in the first month. Despite all the chatter on her about how safeties aren’t worth as much == they are worth a lot when you have a shot at the superbowl = and don’t get there because your safety missed a tackle.
Sorry Alaska — and I’m very prepared to admit I was wrong if this proves to be incorrect — but I think it’s incredibly fanciful to think a team will trade a first round pick AND pay Earl Thomas during the season just because one of their safeties gets hurt.
Every time a player gets injured, you don’t go out and trade a R1 pick for the best available. Houston didn’t do that when JJ Watt got hurt a year ago. And the safety position just isn’t that important in a lot of schemes.
Add to that, Earl is pissed off. After a feel-good camp full of new energy, a wolf’s coming back into the locker room feeling disrespected.
The 2nd rounder is a fair price, and it would replenish the draft stock we lost in the Brown trade.
I genuinely think JS is playing hardball because the Cowboys screwed him on draft day. The 2nd was a fair price then and they didn’t pay it.
AS JOHN SHOULD! Jones got greedy, and thought he could pull it off for a 3rd. He’d look like a genius if he had. I’d rather franchise tag Thomas to 1) retain a great player for one more year 2) spite Thomas and Jones to send a message to 31 clubs
Exactly. Tag him for 2020 and we get 2 years of his prime. Let ET get his next contract in 2021 when he’s 31. I’m sure it won’t be the long-term bonanza he imagines it will be. Good luck with that.
As much as i agree, Earl has 2-3 good to elite years left and can help win a Super Bowl for a team starving. He is a HOFer and well worth the gamble.
I am thinking he will be traded after the Seattle v Dallas game for picks especially if Seattle were to start strong. Dallas and others that could be struggling in the secondary would then offer up more picks.
My two thoughts.
Well apparently the Seahawks value him more than a second, and they will pay him for this year, and they have two backups.
Imagine if you were the Patriots or Eagles or the Vikings and your safety went down. You think you can get by – until your backup safety gives up three touchdowns. Where will those teams go when their season is on the line?
Yes it’s fanciful = but it was the only trade prospect that ever made sense at this late stage of preseason.
Come on Alaska. When have the Patriots ever reacted in such a knee-jerk fashion like that? Not to mention they’re willing to roll with Patrick Chung at safety (again). The Vikings have excellent safety depth and the Eagles don’t rely on their safeties, they’re an aggressive front seven defense.
None of these teams are going to wet their pants if they lose a safety and cough up a first rounder.
I for one am glad he is back. He is one of my favorite Seahawks ever. It may be the last ride but we are better with him and Seattle knows it. That’s why they didn’t bite on a 2nd rounder.
Further confirmation of Dallas offering a 2-nd round pick recently.
http://larrybrownsports.com/football/cowboys-upped-trade-offer-for-earl-thomas/462748
Maybe the trade will happen if Dallas adds a player or later round pick to get the deal done. To me it would seem that a trade may be made in the next few days? I hate to see ET leave, but draft capital is an important need for the next draft and it’s sounds like ET is pretty PO’ed with management, so how would that effect his play if he does report without a trade = ?
Glad he’s back. Figured he’d show up eventually. Funny that “Father Time is undefeated” is probably how the Seahawks feel too. Welcome back. Let’s kick some ass.
So glad the Hawks didn’t cave into Earl’s demands nor give him up for anything less than a first round pick. If, and big IF, Earl is a Hawk all season long and balls out, then this team is for sure in playoff contention. I predicted 8-8, now I’m going 10-6 and right in the mix. This will be Earl’s last season in Seattle. Go Hawks!!! On to Denver!
This looks great on the surface, but it’s still an oil slick just below. From Earl’s side, he could lose 10-15 million in future contract guarantees if he blows a knee out playing out his current deal on a team that isn’t committed long term with him. From Seattle’s side, they are dancing with a talented older player with tread on his tires and the question of him holding up/having the same desire to leave it all on the field for them. It feels like they need to take the franchise tag possibility off the table and decide behind closed doors what’s best for all parties. Either kiss, make up, decide to extend…..or come to an agreement to preserve his health for fair draft compensation, tell Earl to suspend his social media posts temporarily, and decide to break up on good terms.
whaaaaaa??!! Could Dallas possibly up it?! We may have a situation similar to Duane Brown a year ago. We will trade him to Dallas after we play them in the third game. Very similar to when Houston gave us Brown after we played them last year.
I think the Duane Brown situation was a lot different. Brown did not want to more for McNair, Texans did not want to meet his contract demands. He returned to the Texans knowing it was basically a tryout for the Seahawks, who then traded for him the following day. Duane Brown was more than happy to miss those game checks if he didn’t get what he wanted, and he knew his market would be solid in FA if no trade materialized.
Earl’s market is extremely weak. A trade wasn’t materializing, the Seahawks weren’t negotiating, and he didn’t want to leave a lot of money on the table that he might not get back in FA next year.
Dallas can manage through this season and wait for Earl to potentially hit FA next year. If Seattle does somehow resign Earl, they can use that 2nd round pick they were willing to trade to draft a safety.
I’d agree with Rob that the Seahawks turning down a trade for a 2nd round pick doesn’t make a ton of sense, but I’d also counter that it’s entirely possible the Cowboys are lying to save face with their own fan base. Just two days ago it was being reported that no trade for Earl was brewing or imminent. So this flurry of news out of Dallas today could simply be a reaction to Earl’s agent giving Dallas a put or shut up last chance to trade for Earl before he reported to the VMAC. Jerry Jones is a well-known liar.
Great News! Have seen short videos of him working out and lifting weights since early 2018, so he should be in fantastic shape. Just may take him awhile on the timing, similar to 2016 game 1 against Miami, he seemed off that day. Still hope we can sign him to a 3 year deal in the mid-30s somewhere around Duane Brown’s contract. NFL.com noted: “the only player in the NFL with 25 interceptions and 10-plus forced fumbles since 2010. Thomas’ 25 interceptions also ranks as the fourth-most since 2010 behind Richard Sherman (32), Reggie Nelson (29) and Brent Grimes (26).”
Well, this is bittersweet. On the one hand, I’m glad he’s back. On the other hand, I’m bummed that we’ll have a superstar in the locker room who feels slighted by the team.
Honestly, I was just going into this season not expecting to have Earl at all. Now that we may have him for this season, I’m actually very excited. His presence could shore up some of the potential problems on the defense. I think the offense will be much improved from last year and if the defense can hold its own…I like our chances.
I read that the Cowboys backed out of an agreement on the 2018 #50 pick at the absolute last minute – which means they negotiated in bad faith. A future #2 today is NOT equal to that #50 pick, given the wealth of talent available, a summer to train a quality prospect, and months to reallocate Earlâs cap to meet so many needs. Dallas lost nothing by delay – they get both players and Earl doesnât lose a beat showing up to play for Kris Richard. I would turn this down, too. The 3rd round comp and Earlâs play this season, given their middling options at safety, seem at least equal value to Dallasâ reported offer.
If this report has truth…then can you blame the Seahawks for telling Dallas to kick sand until atleast after their week 3 matchup? Pete and John have been soft on trade negotiations and too willing to reward past play and it’s burned them on multiple fronts.
I won’t congratulate or otherwise praise ET3 from doing the right thing, especially when he’s doing it to save himself $500k per week.
Having said that, I think his presence in the backfield helps significantly, but isn’t a game-changer.
I hear he’s not currently planning to play vs DEN
Rapsheet is reporting it’s Dallas that backed out, for what that’s worth.
Yep, noted that in the piece.
So Dallas tried, made the reasonable offer (at last) and the Seahawks still turned it down.
If Thomas walks to Dallas for free in a few months, hope they donât live to regret that.
A second round pick isn’t a reasonable offer imo for Earl. He is worth a first and a third or a first and a starter. Loving every bit of what the Hawks are doing. They don’t own many picks in next years draft, that’s true, but they have to send a message right here and right now that they will not cave into the demands of any player in a holdout or on the last year of their contract. It’s not about picks, it’s about sending a message. I for one am looking forward to getting rid of all those players who kept this team down because they couldn’t get over SB49. Earl is the final player from that group. It’s a new era, and if the earth needs to be scorched, then so be it.
I love Earl Thomas as a player.
But a first and third round pick for a guy who is 30 next May, threatened to retire 18 months ago, has started to pick up some injuries and plays a position that has an absolutely ice-cold market at the moment is unrealistic.
But the Seahawks hold the cards – they can franchise him next year; they don’t have to lose him for nothing. And if they franchise him and ET holds out, we are right back to the same spot where the Hawks state what their ultimate price is.
I’m not sure why the Hawks should give in if they (not us) don’t believe they are receiving the correct value in return.
Reminds me of the Walter Jones saga many years ago only now with a player that thinks his team should just give him away to the Cowboys.
They can franchise him, have $12m guaranteed stacked against the roster and suffer another long, frustrating distraction as Earl Thomas and the Seahawks once again square up. That isn’t appealing.
And what is the correct value for Earl Thomas? To me, a second round pick is fair. He’s in the final year of his contract.
I agree. The TRUE COST of dealing Earl is an unknown future stream of players who will do to the team what Earl just attempted. They cannot afford to broadcast to every other player in the league that they will reward that kind of hold out and trade demand. Especially a ridiculous PR campaign via Twitter and Instagram. Theyâd be inviting a perpetual future circus from every future player who thinks he had enough leverage.
The right decision is simply to do nothing. And force Earl to forgo paychecks if he doesnât play.
Also: first and a third for ET was simply never going to happen. Heâs almost 30 years old. Playing one of the least valued positions in the game. He simply doesnât warrant that kind of draft value for the scheme most teams play.
Sorry I was posting in response to the original post that only showed the Hawks walked away.
*&^% posting delays.
they “bowed out”, not backed out.
which I take to mean they would not go higher than the 2nd rd pick
I do think a trade remains possible, yesterday Rapsheet reported Thomas was not coming back, and everyone (the “experts”) seemed to agree.
So the situation remains as it is until it isn’t.
All we can do is speculate what JS really wants to do, what Dallas will do in a few weeks, what Earl will do next off season, etc. Google “Seymour Hersh – I think” to see what the “experts” know.
If someone offers Earl $3 million a year more than Dallas, does he still go to Dallas?
if Seahawks don’t contend this year, at least we get a soap opera. It is entertainment after all…….
I feel like this could come back to bite them in the tail. A 2nd at this point is better than we could’ve hoped for, and likely a couple rounds higher than anything we get as a comp pick. I see this as a one year rental for a team that needs much more than Earl to seriously contend this year.
Earl has been one of my favorite players for a while, but I can’t say I agree with this one. I think they should’ve taken the 2 and called it a day.
I think this is about John Schneider sending a message to any other player thinking they can force a trade. Earl has tried to manufacture a move to Dallas and Schneider is saying no – if you go, you’re going on our terms. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if they franchise him next year – the transition tag was only $9.5m this year. Earl will not be happy but I think Schneider is playing a longer game than just this one.
Hasn’t the message been sent though?
Earl didn’t get his own way. Neither did Kam.
I’m not sure if it had been before this though; Earl clearly thought he’d get what he wanted. So this may have been necessary to send the message.
I also wonder about the transition or franchise (or non-exclusive franchise) tag next year. The awful market for safeties makes that a reasonable amount to pay, and especially if you did one of the non-exclusive options you still recoup the pick (or else point out to Earl that no, he didn’t get the offers he thought he was going to, did he?)
Earl is guaranteed a certain percentage of his previous deal under the tag so would likely get around $12m in 2018. So it’s not as reasonable as you might think.
I suspect that Earl is thinking about a multiple year contract that is fully guaranteed against injury. Isn’t that what Kam Chancellor and Bennet got? And isn’t that the crux of the problem = the Seahawks can’t afford to carry injured players throughout their contracts?
I don’t know if their deals were fully guaranteed against injury. But yes, they’re worried about being left with dead money against the cap.
I wonder if they could still move him to Dallas at some point after week 3. Yes, DAL will have not had him for 3 games at that point and may not be willing to give up that 2nd. But if you’re SEA, why trade him to a team you have to play in a few weeks? Let him wreck their WR and then trade him. Just like HOU did with Duane Brown last year when they traded him to SEA right after the two teams played.
Yeah, I wonder if a similar scenario to the Duane Brown trade doesn’t happen. Brown had one more year left on his deal compared to ET3 but didn’t report when the season started. We gave up a 2nd and a 3rd for Brown and a 5th.
Earl is arguably a better player and is younger, Brown plays a more important position.
I really hope Seattle comes to their senses and trades Earl. I doubt we get a comp pick for him – I think we’ll be more of a player in FA next year than we usually are.
Earl Thomas is not going to be the difference between us making the Super Bowl or not. Keeping him for one year and then letting him walk for nothing would be borderline negligent by our front office.
I could see that – Dallas are 1-2 by that point and ready to deal. Earl to Dallas for a R2 and a R5 on Monday, Sep 24th.
I honestly don’t understand why Earl is directing his angst/anger at the Seahawks. He should be disappointed in the Cowboys. Seattle believes he is a major talent and worth more than a second round pick. Dallas obviously doesn’t value him that much. In my opinion, it is Dallas that is being disrespectful.
I made this comment the other day, but I didnât get much traction. But Iâll say it again, in light of the recent draft shenanigans on the Cowboys against the Seahawks, and in view of the Seahawks playing their home opener against Dallas in week three, I think the Seahawks are determined to stick it to the Cowboys . Maybe they wouldâve excepted a second round pick from a different team but not the Cowboys. They have to give up a first. And quite frankly, it would be well worth it for them. To get three or four years of Earl still playing well? Absolutely worth of first.
For me, Iâm happy that we get to enjoy another year of Earl Thomas and I hope they can re-sign him or franchise him. I know thatâs not likely.
On that note, the franchise tag for ET next year would be around 11.5 million, and thatâs assuming that none of the other big-ticket safeties get cut. If Iâm the Seahawks I absolutely franchise him and force the Cowboys or anyone else to trade for him or at the very least we get Earl for one more year at a reasonable price.
Yes — thank you for considering the franchise tag. This aspect of the team’s leverage seems to always be ignored.
It won’t be popular with the locker room, but like the players always say, “It’s a business.”
I don’t think the Seahawks have any intention of franchising him.
Yet Rob, as I read your article if felt like I was reading a roadmap to the franchise tag. They have limited picks next year. They will likely be active in free agency there by nullify any big ticket departures they have Leading to know comp picks. Earl Thomas can be had a relatively moderate increase with the franchise tag.And if he doesnât like it and the Seahawks can just stick to their guns and once again listen to trade offers. So, the answer to what theyâre doing is, could very well be the franchise tag. It would be surprising and orthodox for them but it may make sense.
Wouldnât it answer a lot of our questions?
Possibly. But I have to say, the only roadmap I see is one that leads Earl Thomas to Dallas as a 2019 free agent.
At the risk of sounding like Iâm just disagreeing for disagreementâs sake: what is to stop the team from forcing Earl down a particular road by franchising him and eliminating the path of unrestricted free agency? They have the option to maximize their leverage over a valuable asset, retain Earlâs rights on the tag, and try to get compensation for him again next offseason. Itâs 100% in their control. Earl isnât leaving for nothing other than the distant prospect of a comp pick, unless management decides thatâs the best course of action. I canât think of a good reason why they would do that, unless they are planning on using the tag for Clark.
Because you are then tied to a guaranteed $12m contract, Earl will likely ramp up his dissatisfaction and we’ll all be back at square one with this huge cloud lingering over the team. And the Cowboys aren’t more likely to give you a high pick when Thomas is a season older.
Appreciate the response Rob. My post was predicated on the notion that the only real downside to franchising earl is losing the opportunity to tag somebody else. Youâve convinced me that there is another real, tangible downside to the tag: tieing up a significant amount of cap space to do nothing more than negotiate a trade for the rights to a player who is another year older and significantly more disgruntled. I also agree with your point that management is trying to get back to a 2012-2013 type culture. Having a pissed off future hall of famer engaged in another ugly and prolonged contract dispute canât help that effort. Thatâs another real downside to tagging earl that I didnât consider.
So is the depreciation. I wouldnât expect a second for earl next year. Earl is a year older. And whatever team acquires him is realistically only acquiring the right to give an aging – albeit very good – safety a fat new contract (rather than getting hall of fame safety play for 2018 on top of that). Earl is simply a less valuable asset next summer. So I agree whole heartedly we may come to regret the decision to get a second for him now.
Thanks for the awesome content rob!
Edit: meant to say that we may regret the decision to NOT get a second rounder for him now
“the franchise tag for ET next year would be around 11.5 million”
Splitting hairs, but for ET it would be north of $12 million as he’d be entitled to 120% of his salary.
Thanks, I did a very quick check to come up with that number. Although, we should also bear in mind that the Seahawks will probably cut cam chancellor and this next off-season which will reduce the cat numbers slightly.
Was just listening to Pete Carrollâs conference, and he said repeatedly that he wants Earl to be a Seahawk for life. This is what he said about Kam as well.
Maybe they do want to extend them. Maybe they just want to see that his attitude is right first.
Also, looking at my first post I am seeing many errors. I am chalking all of this up to my voice to text function on my phone and not looking at it very thoroughly. Thank you guys for not making fun of me.
Seahawks should be about 65 mil under the cap going into 2019 after cams 8 mil gets freed up. We could extend Wilson Clark Coleman, and still be about 32-35 mil under the cap that would allow to tag Earl and pick up a solid DE and slightly back load the contract.
When and assuming Earl departs in free agency after this season, depending on the size of his contract and length, wouldn’t we get a compensatory pick in 2020?
This is explained in the piece. Due to the rules on comp picks, if you actually sign players you run the risk of losing any potential comp picks.
So despite Jimmy Graham, Sheldon Richardson and Paul Richardson signing big contracts elsewhere, the Seahawks stand to get absolutely nothing just because they signed players like DJ Fluker, Ed Dickson, Shamar Stephen, Jaron Brown and Tom Johnson.
Whatever happens this year, the Seahawks are going to have to sign players in free agency again. They have too many pending free agents to keep them all. So there’s every chance Earl Thomas signs a new deal and the Seahawks get no comp pick because they filled out the rest of their roster.
The Compensation rules are kept secret but they have stated that the purpose of the CFA’s is to reward teams who lose players they want to keep. The CFA’s are determined after the season is over and they are based on Playing time ( Okung 98% snaps for Denver) and awards (conference player of week, All Pro, ProBowl)! As things stand right now John Schneider is challenging the CFA’s system! Will the system consider a straight up gain loss between Seattle & MM or will it be fair and stick with its philosophy? No body an say for sure yet. Has Fluker demonstrated his can be healthy all season? No! All of our CFA’s can be cut and there is a high probability 5 of them will be cut in my opinion.
Just a question, Rob: you mention letting Frank Clark go to protect comp picks above–but doesn’t resigning your own players not count for the compensation formula?
The point I was making is — if they want to protect an Earl Thomas comp pick, they have to be willing to let others go. It’s a numbers game. If you let five free agents walk and sign four replacements, you might get a comp pick. So if they want to try and protect an Earl Thomas comp pick, they pretty much have to be willing to let other players depart.
Ah, I see. That’s fair. Who do you see them likely to not resign (besides Earl)? I have difficulty remembering who is on 1-year or expiring contracts.
I am forever frustrated by the current Seahawks philosophy of losing quality players and quickly signing retreads and averageness in place of comp picks. It’s pound foolish and penny-wise, and isn’t going to lead to a better tomorrow, just a constant mortgaging of the future for a low ceiling value today.
It’s stupid, it’s shortsighted, and it even runs against the early premise the front office presented when they first took over, when it seemed the plan was to do just the opposite. I don’t get the dismissiveness of comp picks that seems to be a norm these days. If more picks go bust than ever pan out, isn’t the best way to have success through picks is to have MORE picks, not fewer?
And it isnât about a single pick, itâs about a multi-year year shortage of them, while needing to rejuvenate the roster. It’s the flexibility of trading up. It’s creating more options in general.
Having more picks allows you to move up to get your guy as well as simply picking in that slot. And Sheldon Richardsonâs cost of a 2nd round pick could have been minimized to being a “pick switch” of a 2nd for a 3rd had we NOT grabbed those early free agents. Doesnât it sound better to say, “The Hawks got a season of Sheldon Richardson for Jermaine Kearse and a pick switch of a 2nd for a 3rd rounder” or am I crazy?!?
Any idea which team has had the most picks in the league the last 15 or so years? Iâll give you a clue, itâs the most successful team in the NFL over that time. And while you can claim itâs because they have a great qb, I would argue itâs because Belichick knows picks fail, often, so he goes for volume.
Any one move isnât by itself, death. But they all add up to death by a thousand cuts when youâre continually trying to improve the present state of the team by leveraging future value instead of acquiring future value, and it makes me question whether we will ever have the capacity to compete– really compete for Super Bowls, again… unless we rethink current offseason/team building.
In agreement 100% Rob. I said all along a Rd1 is too much to expect from an aging player with a lot of miles, and only 1 year of control remaining.
We need a 2nd rd pick. To not take it, and bring in someone is vocally upset doesnt seem like a smart locker room move.
Given all the points outlined in the post, I’m starting to wonder if we’re severely underestimating one or both of two things: (1) Seattle’s confidence in its ability to, eventually, re-sign Earl long term; and (2) Seattle’s willingness to use the franchise tag next year.
No question #2 would piss off Earl, but he’s already pissed off. Yes, the saga drags into next year, but I sort of think we, as fans and observers who pay attention to every little detail in the offseason, have a tendency to overrate the importance of “distractions” like this. With Thomas reporting today, Seattle can essentially pretend like nothing ever happened. (Waiving the fines suggests as much.) Their All-Pro safety isn’t missing any games, and while he did miss training camp and preseason, that ‘s just meant more practice for the young guys and backups. Earl doesn’t really need the reps at this point in his career. Didn’t Walter Jones play on the franchise tag for three straight seasons? He always came back in time to dominate.
The reality is that Earl doesn’t have much leverage. I’m starting to suspect that the front office has decided it will use whatever leverage it has, and is content to “let Earl be Earl.”
Personally, I think the Seahawks have absolutely no intention to re-sign Earl or franchise him.
If they were willing to re-sign him they would’ve done it by now and avoided this saga. They weren’t, aren’t and won’t be in the future when he’s a year older.
I’m not seeing why they wouldn’t tag him, hell, we could probably tag him for two years at a smaller per year salary than what he is after with an extension. That gives us 3 years of control (to age 32) for what, 10mil average per year? seems like a decent deal to me.
I don’t get any sense that they will tag him. I could be wrong. But to me it seems like they’re ready to move on, just as they were with Bennett and Sherman. And this saga has dragged on because they are determined to get the price they want for ET. We’ll see if that tactic pays off.
If that really is true, then I agree with you that turning down a 2nd makes no sense.
What do you imagine they’re thinking? You’re one of the best at piecing together the front office’s logic (even when you don’t necessarily agree with it), so if you can’t figure out what their thought process is, then this truly is a baffling situation.
Is it possible they’re open to extending Earl, but the guaranteed money is a sticking point? That’s what burned them in the Kam situation.
I think they legitimately want more than a round 2 pick. Considering they’ve turned down this latest deal, I suspect they also believe a better deal is forthcoming. I suppose they would point, quite rightly, to the Sheldon Richardson and Duane Brown trades. And the Cowboys, also quite rightly, will argue they can’t be held to the standard with which Seattle is willing to deal.
So I think they’re going to go with the flow. See if they get a better deal. And if not, I think they probably move on and he will be a FA. I could be wrong. That’s my current feeling though.
I don’t like it for numerous reasons.
I take the 2 and move on.
Who gets cut to make room for Earl?
As I said in the previous thread, Im absolutely shocked by all of this. If it were up to me Earl would have been extended months ago, but it doesnt look like that’s at all likely to happen.
If Earl leaves in free agency after this season it will stand as the second year in a row the Seahawks have lost a 2nd round pick for 1 year of service. I just can’t understand why this trade has been rejected. Were they trying to drive up their price and have it backfire when Dallas pulled out?
But hey, we’ll be a better team this year with Earl so there’s always that, maybe we surprise everyone and win it all. Id call it a win in that scenario, but basically no other I can envisage right now..
My personal opinion is that ego has set it on the Seahawks side.
* They did not particularly like how Earl has handled this and his demands. I am sure that they did not appreciate the Dallas locker room incident last year
*There are rumors that Dallas has screwed Seattle over a couple of times the last couple of drafts. 1) 2017 – Schneider calls Jerry Jones and asks who he’s taking they give a name other than Taco Charlton. Seahawks trade down with the Falcons to 31. Dallas picks Taco at 28. 2) 2018 – Rumor has it that Dallas agreed to trade their 2nd rd pick to Seattle. Dallas instead takes Connor Williams.
It’s just speculation, but could Seattle be intent on keeping Earl unless Dallas overpays for Earl because of the teams history with both Earl and Dallas? It doesn’t make sense otherwise to turn down Dallas current trade offer of a 2 when they have no intention of re-signing Earl and at this point Earl has no desire to stay in Seattle. There’s not guarantee of a comp pick and even if there is a comp pick the best you can hope for is a 3rd. Also Seattle doesn’t have their second as it currently stands.
I think there could be a couple contributing factors holding up a Thomas to Dallas trade scenario.
1. It was reported on the other week or so that Seattle’s asking price was a second rounder and change. Dallas moved the needle to a second rounder and zero change. JS is likely holding to his guns, if that report is accurate.
2. Seattle plays Dallas in Seattle in three weeks. Seattle may not want to deal Thomas to Dallas for a second only to see him come into Seattle and help Dallas beat the home town team in front of a large portion of fans who will be angry the deal went down. Thus, Seattle is upping the ante. They will be willing to deal him for a first to Dallas pre 9/23, might be more willing to settle for the offer of a second rounder after, if another team hasn’t stepped up into the equation.
If Dallas has upped the offer to a second from a third. They want Thomas in 2018. Jerry is just trying to play hard ball so he feels like he got a steal.
Personally, I applaud JS for sticking to his guns. IMO, it is potentially much more detrimental, long term to the franchise, to cave into a player under these circumstances then just give in and give him away when he is clearly still in his prime years. This is frustrating, and irritating and annoying, but in the end, I would prefer for JS to play it out this way, even if it doesn’t lead to a 2020 third round comp pick.
If the price is right, deal. If not, no deal.
I agree with this assessment, I’m guessing if they are willing go down from their asking price of a 1st rounder, they want some “change” with the 2nd rounder consisting of a 4th or 5th round pick. It’s too bad we don’t have our 6th and 7th round picks available to do a upgrade scenario where we trade Earl and a 6th for a 2nd and a 4th. It’s certainly going to make for an interesting year watching how this plays out. From the purely football perspective I’m very worried about Earl’s style of play, the “missle” tackling form ending up in penalties with the new helmet rules. Aside from that, he does add that veteran element to a young secondary (especially given Maxwell to IR) and is certainly a large upgrade from TT. I also worry about the “bad blood” element and how that could infect a locker room that seems far more cohesive this year then in years past. If they don’t intend on franchising him as a potential option here due to the possibility of another holdout and the negative energy/drama that would create, you’ve got to wonder what the end game is…
I suspect that Earl would remain a good teammate under the circumstances. If he wants to cash in big time during the 2019 free agency period, it would behoove him to remain a solid teammate and to do everything he can to help the defense play at a high level. That’s his selling point for himself and his reps. “Look what I did for the 2018 Seattle Seahawk defense when they were minus all that veteran talent.. that’s what I will do for your team.”
It could very well be a situation where he is not super friendly with some of the brass, aka Marhsawn 2.0, but Pete has already known he is willing to live with that for a duration.
IMO, it’s still a bit too risky to deal him right now even though Dallas moved the needle a bit. It could set a really bad precedent. RW is going into a contract year in 2019. What if after another pro bowl worthy season, he decides he would rather play in Los Angeles for the Chargers and is willing to take ET’s tact? What if Bobby decides to do that?
@Rob, I know it’s been so far very bitter the whole saga for both Thomas and Hawks. Do you see possibility of extension 3 years by mid season? Typically what hawks do to take care of core players. Lockett being odd man, not sure if injury to Baldwin has something do with.
Like everyone, Thomas is my favorite and I hope hawks is able to extend him. Thomas is very emotional (everyone remember he wanted to retire 2 years back) and hawks knows it they will play their cards right. Hawks 1 – Thomas – 0
I don’t see any possibility of an extension. I doubt either is motivated to do that, either during the season or after.
Hey Rob, thanks as ever for helping us make sense of this crazy team.
To me, the comp for Thomas’ situation is Le’Veon Bell; arguably the game’s best at their position, but the position has an ice-cold market and a low tag number relative to the value the player has to the team. Perhaps Seattle are considering Pittsburgh’s strategy here?
Certainly the Seahawks have been reluctant to use the tag in the past, preferring to give good players third contracts (Chancellor, Lynch etc.) It seems the Hawks’ experience with those contracts is influencing their thinking on offering Thomas a contract, so perhaps it will also influence their thinking on the use of the tag? With a current season cost of $8.5m and a tag value of $11.287 (per 2018, possibly higher in 2019), that gives them Thomas’ age-29 and 30 seasons at less than $10m per year, and no guarantees beyond that. I’m sure Thomas will hold out next summer, as Bell has done each year he’s been tagged. But Pittsburgh’s approach hasn’t kept Bell off the field.
Essentially: would you take two years of Tedric Thompson, a second round draft pick and $11m in 2019 cap space, or two years of (presumably peak) Thomas?
Regarding the 2nd that Dallas offered today; it makes sense that the price might have changed. Had Dallas offered a 2nd before the draft, when Seattle had time to patch the hole through the draft or free agency, that price might have been acceptable. But in the week before the season, with Thompson questionable, Thomas likely has more value.
And I doubt Pete Carroll ever thinks his team is “ill-prepared to make a serious challenge for the Super Bowl”. Sure the Seahawks have holes, but the roster has always had holes. Kenneth did a great piece at Filed Gulls recently about the paucity of O-line quality over the years, reminding us that we once had Bradley Sowell at Left Tackle and still made the playoffs. The best Seahawks teams have just been good enough in other areas to compensate, driven by young (cheap) players becoming stars. If Tyler Lockett, Frank Clark, Shaquill Griffin or Chris Carson have breakout years, could Seattle improve on last year’s 9-7 and make some postseason noise?
Thanks Rob
If they are willing to play the franchise tag game, it makes more sense. I personally don’t think they are. I suspect they are ready to move on. I’m fully prepared to be wrong on that. I just hope they don’t regret passing on a R2 at the end of the year when ET reaches free agency and signs somewhere else.
I also absolutely agree that Pete will not be seeing this team as ill-prepared to win a Super Bowl. I also fully appreciate that even the best teams have holes. I just personally feel the defense is undercooked (even with Earl) and there’s a lack of depth, meaning even a few injuries will be critical.
My two concerns are the loss of draft capital from losing the trade opportunity and the impact this has in the locker room as the culture is being reset. Lots of young guys for this to influence. On the field I think ETIII will compete his @$$ off but the side chatter off the field will undercut the coaching staff and organization. I hope I am wrong and/or we end up getting some reasonable draft capital by trading him.
For starters, I hope PCJS use the roster exemption for the first two weeks and dont play Earl until week 3 against the Cowboys. Let Tedric Thompson play the first two weeks. He’s earned the chance so far.
As long as he’s atleast average trade Earl after we play the Cowboys for the 2nd round pick if they dont get more before then.
At some point they need give the younger guys a shot and get some sort of compensation. Unfortunately I dont think Earl gives makes the difference between making or not making the playoffs. Personally Id take the 2 and call it a day.
The coaching staff owes it to the team, its owner and fans to activate and play the players who give them the best chance to win. What Tedric might âdeserveâ is subservient to that consideration. If Tedric has a Steve Terrell type game that we likely would have otherwise won with ET playing, theyâve done everyone a true disservice. Unless heâs not in shape (unlikely) or he doesnât know the newly installed defensive concepts and alignments (which is plausible but also unlikely), there is no rational argument for keeping Earl inactive.
The most important thing is winning at the moment we are not sure if we can win at our standards without ET. There was no way Seahawks were going to pay ET until they figure out where they stand with talent & contracts. Once they figure it out then they can decide what to do with ET. Also once we watch how our new Compensation Free Agents play then we can decide if its worth keep them after week 10, if we waive 5 of them we get a comp for Jimmy Grahm.
Can we get a list of the CFA we have, to see which ones could possibly be cut. Stephens and Dickson are the two that come to mind, then Johnson. Not sure what others would be a possibility.
It’s possible SEA’s strategy is to shop Thomas during the Season. Using DAL as an example, they’re willing to give a R2 for him now. But what if they’re thick in the race for the Championship at the halfway point? Might they up their offer to a R1 pick to meet SEA’s price?
Not only would they get their R1 pick, but their record should be better with ET3 playing in the first 8 games than if they traded him now.
Not saying that’s their strategy, or that it would work. Just saying there’s more to the story
I definitely think there could be some of this going on. Also, if they are not taking a R2 from Dallas now, that might be a bit of a signal that there is at least one other team involved in discussions to acquire.
Yeah, I don’t think this is over yet. This is just Earl showing up so he doesn’t lose $500K/week.
I don’t think Seattle takes any less than a 1st from Dallas. However, if there’s an AFC team in play, I think they might take a 2nd from that team. That or, like has been mentioned elsewhere, they’re not going to trade with Dallas until after Seattle plays them. At any rate, I still think a trade is going to happen sooner than later.
I for one hoped ET would sit out the season, this just complicates matters. The Hawks should take the 2nd round pick. If he gets hurt and misses a number of games during the season his compensatory worth next year will be nil. He already stated he will not forgive or forget, so having a disgruntled cancer in the locker room will not be good for a team with a lot of young, impressionable players. The distraction of the anthem protests last year affected the teams game preparation and motivation, in my opinion. Time to move on from ET.
“If the Seahawks passed on a second round pick for one last year of Earl Thomas, is that a logical move? Especially with the team seemingly ill-prepared to make a serious challenge for the Super Bowl?”
Absolutely not. All signs are pointing to trading Earl. Agree that an extension seems highly unlikely, although that’s what I’d prefer to see happen. Heres the thing our home opener is against Dallas. Earl cannot be wearing the star in Seattle. Beat Dallas then take the deal. Earl+5 for 2+3.
I’m going to be hyperbolic for the simple sake of making an emphatic point.
Passing on a 2nd rounder from Dallas, is an absolutely disastrous move for a team looking to get younger and better. I don’t know if it’s just pride with PC/JS, but this feels like yet another shortsighted move that is going to hurt the franchise in the long run.
Earl is not getting us a 1st round pick. The free agent market, with damn good safeties available, was a barren wasteland in regards to offers. The market has staked it’s position on the value of that position.
Earl is not getting us a compensatory pick; at least not one that is going to make any difference…and that won’t even happen until 2020. A) he won’t get a big contract and B) we have tons of cap space to sign guys. This equals no comp picks.
Earl has become a distraction and we have seen the catastrophic impacts of what malcontents have done to this franchise, in the midst of having a top 3 QB in his prime. Fool me once…fool me twice…fool me three times? Are they really going to fall for this again?
Earl is not signing an extension here and if he does, it means we are ponying up big bucks for a guy who has made it clear he doesn’t want to be here and will be 30 soon. Is that how you want to rebuild this thing?
I’m beyond disappointed with today’s news. This is going to be a further distraction to this team, assuming they don’t trade him. I love PC/JS, but it’s moves like these (or lack thereof) where it’s clear as day that pride is getting in the way of a sound decision. This team needs clarity in the baddest way. They had a chance to have a clean refresh, but now they are going to muddy the waters, yet again, by continuing this charade.
I love Earl. He was an amazing Seahawk. The moment he went into the Dallas locker room was the moment that his distraction became bigger than his play on the field. This team can ill-afford another season of internal turmoil. Take the deal and let’s all move on.
The problem with taking the 2nd rounder and the 8 mil in cap space is that the Hawks have been unable to replace departing players with anything near what they lose.
But with no 2nd rounder next year and this being a “retooling” year taking that pic seems so logical.
Tough spot for the Hawks. Plus Earl is feeling “disrespected”. The only good thing is he will be playing for us.
The value of a safety is a notion and subject to change in the blink of an eye.
One thing, Rob you didn’t mention or perhaps you did and I’ve missed it but the availability of the franchise tag. The front office could do that this off season and then trade even after. As far as players like Frank, with comp picks available to trade these days losing a player that you don’t know how they will preform once they get paid isn’t as dire as before
I think a issue on the table is the volatility of Earl. Threatening to retire etc did not help his stock. Maybe his agent and he have figured out he’s only hurt his stock in the last year.
I don’t currently expect the Seahawks to franchise him. And I think it would merely recreate the same saga we witnessed this year.
I’m not sure what their long term plan is. I just hope they don’t end up regretting an opportunity to replenish their lost draft stock in the middle of a roster refresh.
I think it’s pretty simple. For those of us that have given up on the season wants to trade him for 2nd pick and a bag of Jalapeno chips.
For those that have not given up,, will not trade him unless they’re willing to overpay.
YankinTa has not given up. In fact, he’s waiting for the Vegas Super Bowl odds to go back up to 75-1 in order to place a $20 bet for $1500 payout. Keep Thomas unless Cowboys want to give us a 2nd and a 3rd or a 4th.
I haven’t given up on the season. I am realistic though. I don’t think Earl dramatically improves Seattle’s chances of winning a Super Bowl and I expect him to be a free agent in a few months.
Agreed. Earl doesn’t dramatically improves Seattle’s chances. But for sure he improves it some. Either with him or without him, I would still be willing to bet if Vegas odds go back to 75-1. We always have a good chance as long as RW stays healthy,, Minus Tom Cable, and Kris Richards.
That’s exactly where I’m at.
The goal is to win a Super Bowl. It’s not happening in 2018. How do we get closer to that next few years? Get younger and better. You do that by having more high draft picks and spending money on premium talent entering or in their prime.
Yes Matt, you’re definitely in the group that has given up on this season.
Sorry but I’m not in your group. We always have a good chance with No.1 QB in the NFL,, Minus Tom Cable, and Kris Richards…. Stay tuned,, there might be a pleasant surprise. đ
Let’s be right here.
It’s possible to critique this decision and not ‘give up on the season’. The two things are not connected.
Hmmm if someone tells me they haven’t given up on the season on some level and yet wanting to trade future HOF safety in his prime for future draft pick,, then I would say that he/she is in Denial. But I could be wrong. đ
Saying Earl is in his prime is a bit of a generous adjective. And it’s not as simple as you make it. Earl is not under contract for 2019. He’s made it very well known he doesn’t want to be here. I’d rather us capitalize on the value he has to gear up for a more likely SB run in the next few years.
We are not an ET away from a Super Bowl.
SEA could well win a SB without Earl, or miss the playoffs with him.
Trading him for value doesn’t have anything to do with “giving up on the season”
Let’s not go to histrionics
Well, you’re wrong.
Again, I haven’t given up on the season. And I’m very willing to dissect this Earl Thomas saga the way I have. The two are not connected.
I’ll bet you (Rob & Matt) $1,000,000 that if we start out 4-0 or 5-1, you will not want to trade Earl anymore for a draft pick. Because by then you’ll realize we have a good chance to make it to the Super Bowl. đ
Well, yeah. That’s kind of stating the obvious though.
And if they’re 0-4 or 1-5 the reverse will be true.
Finally you admit you’ve given up on the Season on some level,, before it started.
It’s different for me to give up in wk 4 or 5 after 0-4, 1-5 starts. At least I’m giving us a chance since we have the best QB in the NFL minus Tom Cable & minus Kris Richards. đ
Nobody has said theyâve given up on the season. Not even a little bit.
Not sure why you keep trying to make this a thing.
but Matt did give up on the season… “The goal is to win a Super Bowl. Itâs not happening in 2018”
That’s not giving up on the season. It’s being realistic about the team we have.
Sincere question; do you really think this Seahawks team is capable of winning 4 games in a row in the playoffs? That’s what it is going to take. I don’t want this team to eek into the playoffs this year, at the detriment of building a better team that can get a 1 or 2 seed with a legit shot of winning the super bowl again.
I seriously do think itâs possible that this team wins 4 games in a row. Any given Sunday. Nick Foles just led the eagles to a super bowl. Was that realistic enough for ya?
First off…no need for the attitude dude. I’m happy to have a conversation.
Yes, Foles lead the Eagles to a Super Bowl. Did you happen to notice who was blocking for him and who was playing defense? Do you think the Seahawks have that caliber of team?
Any given Sunday? Sure. Any given Sunday – 4 Sundays in a row, on the road? Not betting on it.
Hey Matt sorry if my text came over the wrong way. Just saying itâs possible and having a little fun.
Think itâs ridiculous to say what is and isnât realistic before the season even starts. Iâd rather make the playoffs and have a shot at it than get the first overall pick.
Well I think everyone feels that way!
I agree with Matt.
Doesn’t mean I’ve given up. I hope it happens. I don’t expect to compete for the Super Bowl though. I still expect to be competitive generally.
Here’s exactly how I view this thing:
Winning the Super Bowl is never a guarantee. The idea is to build a team that gives the greatest margin of error in pursuit of it. That means a collection of high end talent, depth, youth (in the sense of growth potential), team chemistry, a system with the right personnel, etc. This team, as it currently stands, has a narrow margin of error.
If the Seahawks want it; this doesn’t have to be Earl or nothing – which is a totally different conversation. They have options that include draft pick compensation and freed up money to pursue younger talent at a more critical position.
This doesn’t even consider the “team chemistry” aspect that we can only speculate about. That said, the past few years have shown a pretty dysfunctional team that spent more time battling each other than they did opposing teams. I’d like to squash that once and for all. I’m not accusing Earl of being as bad as some of those other guys were, but his antics over the past year don’t really give him the benefit of the doubt.
I hope this provided a clearer picture of why I am thinking the way I do about this situation.
I think you make a very fair case Matt. One I generally agree with.
I think Pete wants Earl to retire as a Seahawk and sign him for one more contract. It appears to me that they don’t really want to trade Earl otherwise they’d have done the trade with the Cowboys. If there’s an offer comes that they can’t refuse they might pull the trigger on it. I really see John Schneider will try to work out a deal with Earl despite there appears to be bad blood now. There’s no forever enemy or friend in the business world.
I think if they wanted to sign him to one more contract, it’d already be done.
Personally I think they are extremely unwilling to give Earl the kind of contract he wants and are preparing for a future without him. One way or another.
I think a compromise is a slight possibility. If PC/JS set down with ET and both sides approach that meeting with the idea of…. what do we have to do to get this done? If BOTH sides -give in a little bit- a deal could be struck for maybe 2/3/4 years and all is well? Compromise is a time tested and often successful method of negotiation so, IMO, it may be the best solution and a win-win for all concerned.
I doubt there’ll be any sitting down with ET. Read his instagram comments.
A compromise I’d like to see: A negotiated, incentive laden contract extension for ET.
1. The Seahawks want to limit their costs for an aging Super star and are wary of decreased performance & injuries on 3-rd contracts from their recent history. They also dislike paying for past performance as contract extensions are about the future more so than the past.
2. ET wants security of a larger contract & should be willing to “negotiate” multiple levels of incentives that are ALL achievable, but still based on his continued top performance levels (perhaps based on his past stats?). ET needs to believe in himself and perform up to snuff and he’ll get paid his rightful due. IF both sides are open to a solution & can communicate, a lot could be accomplished. Money can often talk louder than emotions (and maybe even with a pissed off ET with millions of future dollars at stake?).
As to future injury potential, maybe that can be handled by Lloyd’s of London with a shared premium? IIRC that used to be a thing done by other superstars in years past. JS/PC & ET just need to sit down and TALK possibilities of how both sides can agree and come out feeling like winners. I’m not sure ET’s “agent” is helping him very much at all.
Wow, I’m late to the party. But I admire Schneider for standing his ground. I do not like that the cowboys backed us into the corner of accepting a 2019 2nd rather than a 2018.. I do not like that Earl Thomas backed us into a corner with his.. uhm marketing. And so… you are left with difficult decisions. Do bow to Earls demands and set a bad precedence to your players and future holdouts? Do you bow to the cowboys and set a bad precedence for future trade negotiations – the message it sends to the other 30 clubs…
To me, you need to hold your ground for the sake of showing the rest of the league (players and teams) that you will bend but not break. That you won’t settle.. it’s the tough line a general manager must walk, but you may be setting yourself up for headaches down the line on both sides.
Jerry Jones got greedy in the draft. He thought he could dangle the proverbial carrot in front of the Seahawks, and pull it out from under us hoping we were so ready to receive the 2nd that we would be happy to get anything. NO, don’t do it. Schneider and Jones have been playing a game of chicken to see who will blink first, and what is at stake is more than just Earl Thomas and draft compensation… Receiving a 2nd this year, is really just taking the third offered back in the draft. DO NOT BREAK, accept an offer that is now equal to a 2018 2nd or BETTER
It would be funny if that turns out to be any part of the reason, since excessively discounting a future pick vis-a-vis a present pick is the whole reason the Seahawks have Earl Thomas in the first place. Thanks, 2009 Broncos!
Question… For all the people that think Earl is a slam-dunk to force a trade to Dallas, have you ever stopped to think about taking the man at his words when he says that he wanted to stay in Seattle? The cowboy locker room thing was a weird thing from a weird guy who says weird things. He has never been a guy to speak out against the team in public or behind the scenes like Sherman or Bennett. He also publicly backed the team even against Kam Chancellor during his holdout. He is also backed up Russell Wilson in publicly when many D guys haven’t. Even his Twitter comments today reflect a guy who is going to play hardball not pout. Im willing to bet Russell Wilson will to when it comes to his contract. In my experience, guys across many sports the appeal to stay with one franchise really is a major factor for a lot of players. I think he may want to stay and balked at their price. End of story, no conspiracy. If he is not in third plans than maybe they should have traded him. Sources say that they have had several offers so if they don’t want to deal with the Cowboys then they could have picked someone else.
He already stated he will not forgive and forget. To me that say’s he is ready to move on.!
Love Earl but the love affair is over. Trade the guy and do right by both sides
Iâm not overly concerned with the Seahawks draft picks; theyâll trade out of the first round and replenish their picks. It is good to have ET back though. I believe they really do not want him gone obviously based on their actions but with the depth at safety, no one seems to come close to provide the services that ET does. Also they want to be competitive this year – donât want to be in the hot seat. A one year rental is a good thing for both sides in my opinion.
You’re not going to replenish a lost second rounder trading down.
A one-year rental, in my opinion, is extremely short-sighted.
Replenishing picks is always a good idea, even if the compensation doesn’t look great at first blush. It allows you to add guys like Rasheem Green and Michael Dickson, who, while early, look like top 50 players from this draft class.
I don’t see the doom and gloom scenario.
1. PC teaches always compete. To think he is going to give up on the season and trade Earl for nothing is foolish. Having contract year Earl around instantly improves the secondary. Earl, Tedric, McDougald, Luani looks like a respectable unit.
2. There is still chance they can extend him for 2-3 years. I wouldn’t believe in anything Earl says right now. He is mercurial and changes his thoughts. If anything, Seattle forgoing the fines hopefully creates some goodwill.
3. If Earl starts playing at a high level in the next 2-3 weeks, it helps other teams get into the mix. Imagine Chargers with their thin safety position and Gus Bradley. If they are start well, do you think they won’t consider adding Earl for 2019 2nd + 2020 4th?
I think PC is too old for a multi-year rebuild the way fans want. So, unless you want to blow him with an incredible offer, he is happy to keep the pieces he has to win now.
1. Nobody is saying they should trade Earl and/or give up on the season. That’s not how I’m viewing it at all. Personally, I don’t think Earl’s return turns Seattle into a contender. And if he’s due to walk in a few months anyway, it’s quite hard to imagine they turned down a chance to get a guaranteed R2.
2. They’ve had months to try and extend him and have chosen, instead, to entertain trade offers and not even talk about a deal. And now they’re going to consider extending him for 2-3 years mid-season? I just don’t see it.
3. Teams have had months to trade for Earl Thomas. I just don’t see a situation now where they suddenly decide it’s the right move right in the middle of the season.
But hasn’t the FO always said that they wont negotiate any new contracts while the person is holding out? They said that to Kam and now Earl. But whether Earl is willing to negotiate now is the mystery.
I know for a fact the front office were unwilling to negotiate a new contract even if Earl had attended camp and OTAâs. That was communicated to ET at the end of last season.
If a second was really on the table (and not just a PR ploy by Dallas), then we absolutely need to take it, and feel good we held out for a 2nd instead of a 3rd.
Come on, John.
Dallasâ offer of a 2019 2nd round pick is really not much different than a pre 2018 offer of a 3rd round pick (which I think was the offer/counteroffer on the table on the past draft day). A pick in a future year is seen as a 1 round difference, so I can see why JS hasnât changed his stance as the Dallas offer is the same.
Also, for all the potential Seahawks FA that could cancel out a Earl comp pick next year, there is no reason why they couldnât extend those guys during this season/before FA to possibly avoid losing a comp if Earl does sign elsewhere next season.
While we would like to think PC and JS are above this concern, without Earl this D would be nearly unwatchable, with Earl they should just be âbadâ. Outside of Wagner and possibly K.J. (when healthy) they need another better than average defender to weather the storms as itâs not coming from anyone else in the secondary or DL.
I think they are just making the best out of the situation. While I would love a 2nd, I know my entertainment/enjoyment level for individual games this year will be a bit higher with Earl. Also, no guarantee a 2nd will amount to much. A lot of guys donât pan out or are JAG. I figure a 6-10 or 7-9 season is realistic, not sure if that changes much with Earl, but they, and myself are a little less likely to be embarrassed with him back there.
The comp pick formula does not take in to account your own players that you extend. It takes in to account the players you lost in free agency and the players you gained in free agency.
For example, this past year Seattle lost 4 guys who qualified for a comp pick (Graham, Richardson, Richardson and Willson) and Seattle signed 7 guys who qualified for a comp pick (Dickson, Johnson, Stephen, Brown, Johnson, Fluker and Mingo). In order for Seattle to have qualified for one comp pick they needed to have only signed 3 of the 7 players to get in to a net loss of players.
Another element here is that we have inexperienced corners. Earl can still cover ground and give help from sideline to sideline. With him we can more easily use the single high safety that Pete seems to prefer.
Sure, they can use single high with Earl. Not sure they would’ve been able to play that as much without him (not that a slight adjustment would’ve been an issue).
Whether it helps the CB’s though is a massive question mark. Seattle has had good cornerback play mostly under Carroll but when it’s been bad they haven’t been able to mask it with Earl.
I see 2 possibilities overshadowing all the rest.
1. JS is sticking to his guns, waiting for Dallas to offer their 1st.
2. They want earl long term. They’ve said he’s always been in their plans from day 1.
I think it’s a bit of both. If nobody offers a 1st, extend him mid season. I could see Dallas offering a 1st after week 3 IF we’re willing to sweeten the deal a bit. 2020 3rd+Earl for 2019 1st? This really depends on how the 2020 class looks. ( I think nobody pays enough attention to the strengths of draft classes during times like these.) If 2020 is a weak class, why not give them an extra pick for a 1st rounder? If 2020 is a strong class then they probably wouldn’t even give up a 2020 4th.
Ultimately, the teams know so much more than we do that theres really no point in taking a side. Just have faith in this Front Office that they’ll make the right move. In the meantime enjoy watching the best safety to ever play ball in a Seahawks uniform. This season is all fun for us fans anyway, no real expectations, just have fun and hope we win some good games, or hope we go 0-16, your choice, either way we’re gonna come out with a bright future.
Another thought thats popping in my head is, what if Seattle wants to pay Frank OR earl? This year could be a test to see who they pay. Cause if you extend both, your $50M cap space is going down to $20M (maybe a little more).
If we let Frank and Earl walk I’ll be confused, even upset. But for now, I’m happy I get to watch one of my favorite talents ever, even if I did lose respect for him as a person, hes a baller, and deserves our gratitude for life for bringing us our only Super Bowl. Earl was the glue that held it all together and we all owe him our gratitude, holdout or not. I just hope he leaves the bitterness behind him, because IMO Dallas is the one disrespecting him. As I read above, we are valuing him as a 30 year old 1st rounder, Dallas wont go higher than a 2nd, who’s really sleeping on Earl?
As I’ve said a few times today, I’m very, very prepared to be proven extremely wrong.
But I’m not sure why people are suddenly coming to the conclusion that the Seahawks will be willing to extend Earl Thomas mid-season.
If they wanted to extend his contract, they would not have waited until the final weeks of his deal and gone through the whole holdout saga. It’d be a bizarre thing to do. Not extend him, piss him off, force him to come back, then after all that try to extend his deal.
And does anyone really think Earl Thomas is going to be willing to agree terms after all this? They’d have to top Eric Berry’s contract for sure now. He’s got his eye set on being a free agent. No doubt at all. And I think the Seahawks are willing to play this out to the bitter end, in an attempt to get the best deal possible from Dallas (or get nothing, whichever it is).
Preparing to go 8-8 and get nothing for ET3.
That said, I can’t imagine JSPC thinking this is good for the team. Hopefully Dallas ponies an additional pick and we can move on.
I think his agent has more to do with Earl than Earl does. Remember that ridiculous tweet he did?
I’m pretty sure the Hawks were negotiating with his agent well before camp and their offers were rejected and bad advice was given to Earl and he bit.
Either way it sucks for the team but I think we just let him play and flush the whole business down the toilet at years end, comp pick or round pick be damned.
Really appreciate this comment, and well spoken in train of thought. I agree Seahawks seem to value him a whole lot more than Dallas despite their intention to use him as trade bait, and uninterest in extending him. They have a right a to, and thatâs competing on a front office level.
But I agree with rob, why antagonize Earl and create all this commotion to later extend him anyways? See him prove a $13mil salary at his age? Maybe but probably not. They know everything there is to know about ET, including an idea of his rate of decline.
One way or another I think Dallas makes a deal. Why not wait till ET is a free agent? Cap reasons for one will be tighter a year later. Dak and Zeke need new deals and another full season of production (baring injury) makes a players price go up. It would also be a year scratched off arguably his most productive season he has left (he has peaked). So there is some insentive to get him now rather in 2019. Is the safety class this year shaping up to be a strength? What about in 2020? I suspect Schneider needs just a bit more than a 2nd perhaps similar to the brown trade and add a 3rd gets it done?
Until then, Iâll appreciate watching one of the greats play for the Seahawks.
Thomas started the disrespect when he went in the boys locker room with cameras. His value also fell at the same time.
Dumb move, but after his wedding, anything is possible.
I think they’re still trying to trade him. I think they’re waiting for Dallas to give in for the first. Jerry Jones has been receiving a lot of pressure to make that Super Bowl splash move
Agreed. I still think they’re open to dealing him.
well, for what it is worth, I think ET reporting strengthens SEA trade leverage a wee bit
I agree with that
With Falcons safety Neal out for the season with an ACL injury + the familiar face of coach Quinn, they become a viable trade partner for ET’s services? Maybe?
No, I highly doubt it. Because next year they’ll be ready to start the brilliant Keanu Neal again. So any trade for Thomas would be a knee-jerk 2018 rental. And they’re not going to pay more than Dallas for a one-year rental.
Seahawks wanted 2018 2nd, Dallas waited and offering 2019 2nd which is as good as 3rd in 2018. Hawks should extract 2019 1st from any one(which equals 2018 2nd) if they let him play the whole season for other team.
Not necessarily. A future pick is viewed as being valued a round later during or before the draft. In September, I’m not sure that remains the case. Especially if you’re dealing a player whose deal expires shortly.
Earl only returned after Dallas’s 2nd is rejected and hawks announced trade is not an option unless someone comes with a mind boggling offer. Hawks made that decision sensing Earl is playing along with Boyz expecting a trade to materializes and Boyz low balling hawks sensing they will throw away Earl as a gift!
Earl should not go to Boyz for disrespecting his value.
I blame the NFL as a whole for these situations. Ive posted it before, its the only league with unguaranteed deals and holdouts. There is a work stoppage coming soon, Sherm discussed it recently, and its overdue.
The players and the owners need to get a different system, no unguaranteed portions of contracts and no holdouts. Unforutnately the current system is so beneficial to owners that I doubt they will give it up. WHen they can have an entire season of unguaranteed pay AND franchise tag rights, the players always get screwed into these situations where they have to hold out as their only leverage which really isnt leverage at all.
If I were a top player today I would only sign 1yr deals, the way Revis did it thru his prime, hit the market annually. THis runs the risk of injury of course but they will make more in real current dollars.
Fully guaranteed contracts just isn’t logical. I’m not sure why anyone thinks it is in the NFL.
And I don’t think a work stoppage will happen. I think people like Sherman believe they talk for the masses but probably don’t. I didn’t see Aaron Donald, OBJ, Khalil Mack and anyone else complaining about not having a fully guaranteed contract. Why? The cap has risen incredibly and players are receiving huge sums compared to even five years ago.
they can easily do guaranteed contracts, they do it for 1st round draft picks. As long as there is a salary cap, it is a zero sum game for owners. But, the problem would be in the changeover, as it is impossible to do it overnight. Probably need some sort of grandfather rule, like NHL helmets. And, because of injuries and current contracts, some teams will do better than others during a transition just because of something uncontrollable like a freak injury. The argument against guaranteed contracts because of the injury risk is exactly why the players want it. Guaranteed contracts will just mean shorter contracts, probably a little less per season, but the exact same payout overall because of the salary cap. Players just won’t get the call from management about “restructuring” their contract. Will not change the game. It is just a simple math problem.
nothing to get your knickers in a knot over…..
The reason they can do it for first round picks is because there’s an agreed and established salary for the different draft positions and it’s considerably less than the deals players get in FA. The current CBA brought in a rookie cap.
Baker Mayfield, the #1 pick and the guy with the biggest rookie contract this year, averages $8m a year. It’s very different fitting that into a cap and trying to fit a contract like even Andrew Norwell’s. Jacksonville are paying Norwell $13.3m a year and his contract worth is $66.5m. That’s twice the value of Mayfield’s. And Norwell’s salary isn’t anything like those of the highest paid defensive linemen, receivers or quarterbacks in the league.
And this is the extreme example because Mayfield is the #1 pick and Norwell isn’t anywhere near the highest paid player in the NFL. Rashaad Penny, a late first rounder, has only a $2.7m per year average salary.
So it’s pretty simple. If the top players want to earn as much as Baker Mayfield or the mid/late first round picks like Rashaad Penny, fully guaranteed deals are much more workable. If they want to earn like Olivier Vernon, Odell Beckham Jr, Andrew Norwell, Aaron Donald, Khalil Mack, Todd Gurley — they’re going to have to work with the teams. Otherwise it’s not manageable under a hard cap.
Speaking of Rashaad Penny, IMO – he is the least talked about & the least respected first round draft selection EVER for the Seahawks. I understand that he hasn’t had much opportunity so far, but everyone is so in love with Carson that Penny seems to be completely ignored. I guess he’ll just need to show it on the field against Denver to get any notice. Remember, during the draft, both PC/JS said he is a game breaker talent, so Sunday, he gets to show why he was drafted in the first round. Oh, I’d also expect both Penny and Lockett back on KO returns & that will be a lot of fun to watch as well. Can’t wait for the season to get underway. I have a suggestion for the RB duo of Carson & Penny….”ROCK & ROLL” as in ROCK =Carson & ROLL =Penny. GO HAWKS.
For fully guaranteed contracts, the team has to place the full value of the contract in to escrow at the time of signing.
Not many owners can put the value of the life of a contract in to escrow like that.
yes they can, because they will just pay the players on shorter contracts with a similar amount they are already guaranteed. The players won’t get fully guaranteed contracts without a trade off. The owners will still out negotiate them in a CBA anyways, that is their area of expertise. And with the salary cap, the total amount paid out remains the same overall. It is very possible and almost every owner (except the Raiders) can easily afford to put the money into escrow. That is one reason why the Raiders traded Mack, they did not have the cash to put his guaranteed portion of the contract into escrow. If Hockey can sign players to 10 year deals, and they make peanuts compared to the NFL, then the NFL can afford to have 2 and 3 year guaranteed contracts, with the odd QB getting longer term. As it stands, the owners get to hold the control longer this way and still have an out clause. Eventually, the players will make their stand. The NFL is the richest league, they can afford it, but they won’t do it until they have to.
This just isn’t viable Hawk Eye.
Does anyone really, honestly, see a future where nearly every contract extension is just for two years?!?
Teams would be enduring never ending negotiations with vast bulks of their roster. It’d be chaos.
Not to mention the cap would explode with every ‘record’ signing that would occur in such a short space of time.
It’s totally unworkable. And unnecessary. Because none of the big name signings EVER complain about their non-fully guaranteed contracts when they sign them. And the cap is rising every year, players are getting more and more every year. It’s a system that is showing growth and progress.
And you’re very much missing the point when you point to hockey. The NFL has to pay 53 players, much higher quantities of staff, much more equipment, much more expensive facilities. It’s a tremendous red herring when other sports get brought into this.
I disagree. Dare i say it, I will even say you are wrong. It is viable, and it is in every other sport. The higher costs are one thing, but they also have much (MUCH) higher profits. And with a salary cap it is a ZERO SUM game. The NFL is the only sport I can think of that does not have guaranteed contracts. The only reason they don’t is not because of some financial problem it will cause, as you suggest. But rather the owners have negotiated these contracts with the players and as long as the majority of the players go along with it, most of the rest have to as well.
You say it is not necessary because you are looking at it from the owners perspective. The players will disagree with you and this is constantly brought up by them. This type of contract works better for the owners than the players. The team can cut the player and walk away from the contract, and pay whatever is left on the contract, if they want to move on. The player can only play for that team and cannot break the contract.
wait till the next CBA, and you will hear the players asking for guaranteed contracts. Now I doubt they have the ability to beat the owners, the owners can wait longer than the players and are better at PR. If they ever get to guaranteed contracts, the game will just him along the same as it is now. Management will just adjust to it.
now if you want to show me how the financial figures don’t work, I am all ears. But you are stepping in my territory here, so you have to do more than just say it. I do financial analysis on businesses on a regular basis, and crunch numbers all the time. The finances of the NFL will barely change if they go to fully guaranteed contracts. They will still pay out the same amount year by year. Some teams will get burned in the process, some will do better, some players will get less, some more. The average NFL career is less than 4 years roughly, so the overall affect is not going to be what you think, teams are constantly turning over their roster. I did not say all extensions would be 2 years, some would be 1 or 2, some 3, and not many would be longer. But the current structure means they are really the same anyways. How many players collect all 4 or 5 years of an extension?
and yes, you can compare them to other sports, they are similar industries with similar forms of cash flow, marketing, team structures, player assets, scouting, etc. That is how you do business analysis. They may have something unique, but they are similar in more many ways.
and if the NFLPA was to work a miracle and get it in the new CBA, do you think the NFL would close up the next day? No, they will continue, they will make money and they will have extracted a concession from the players to get there. The sun will still rise in the east and the NFL will still make lots of money. And the day they don’t, it will not be because of guaranteed salaries. They already have a guaranteed % of the take, this is just a distribution issue.
The players can ask for it all they want.
Itâs not happening. For the reasons Iâve already explained. I am not wrong on this one.
I’ll drop it
not because you are right, because we are just going in a circle.
and I doubt we see all guaranteed contracts in the near future, but that is because the union does not have the power to negotiate it. That is a different question.
but financially, because of the salary cap, non guaranteed or guaranteed contracts are a zero sum game. It is a simple math question
length of contract? Most contracts are actually 2 or 3 years anyways, when you look at guarantees. Team turnover is probably 20-25% per team per year.
owners don’t want guaranteed contracts because of injury risk? That is the same reason the players want them.
and if you are saying the NFL cannot adapt and use the same formula as every other sports league, Darwin and 32 billionaires will disagree with your stance. These guys may be dinosaurs from a social standpoint, but they are financial sharks. The rules would be the same for all teams and they will adapt.
if one day you actually prove me to be wrong and the NFL folds because of guaranteed salaries, I owe you a beer. But if they get guaranteed salaries and the league survives, then you owe me a beer. And since you are a lot younger than me, you may have to buy one for one of my kids…..
So when you said you were going to drop it… you actually meant you were going to carry it on đ
I said it earlier. Teams will not accept (and rightly so) a situation where they’re almost constantly negotiating with a large percentage of their roster. It’ll cause chaos. That’s what will happen if short term, guaranteed contracts come in. The only way to make this feasible is for everyone to earn less (like the first round rookies) and players won’t want that either.
And as far as I can tell, it isn’t Aaron Donald, Khalil Mack, Odell Beckham, Aaron Rodgers etc complaining about this. They all signed deals. It’s notorious wind bag Richard Sherman. And he can get stuffed.
We just keep going around and around on this, and I don’t want to sound pedantic, but you’ve got to back to basic principles on this. Blaming “the NFL” for holdouts is like blaming the federal government for racism. In the end, the problem is neither “the NFL” nor the government, it’s people.
Both sides came together to end up with the current CBA, trading off risks and rewards. If you keep any kind of rookie salary scale (other than maybe a 1-year contract for all rookies), you are going to have holdouts as rookies who “outplay” their contract want an extension earlier than they would otherwise be a FA. And I think Julio is still in the guaranteed portion of his contract, but he held out because he now thinks the market has passed him by and wants his deal re-done, guaranteed or not. Nothing is going to stop people being people and wanting more than they signed for.
Players could get fully guaranteed contracts now, but they’d have to accept less money because that’s how people work. If you take something away from one side (longer club control, salary cap benefits, hedge against injury risk, etc.), they tend to want something in return (lower salary). The players’ actions have spoken. By and large, they want exactly what they’ve bargained for: longer contracts with big signing bonus money up front, even if it includes non-guaranteed years.
And of course, Earl’s holdout has nothing to do with a guarantee. He’s basically on the 1-year guaranteed deal you want all players to sign, and he’s STILL holding out. Because he wants an extension even before that year is up. So how does a guaranteed contract change that? He’s getting exactly what you say the players should want and do, and he’s fighting tooth and nail against it.
Rob, really respect your input and articles, however, ET and JsPC are in an understanding with each other that I have seen since this began. Anyone following ET knows that he is an almost otherworldly character who has a gigantic ego but if very loyal and PCJS knew that he had no bargaining stance but was posturing for the “twitter world” of megastars. ET will not end up in Dallas, we can still franchise tag him next year if they want so not gaining nothing by him plaing this year. He is a fierce warrior and will play out of his head this year for an extension, free agent contract or the franchise tag. When the season goes well he will get an extension ala, Bennett, Lynch and Chancellor. He will be in Seattle next season or for one or two more, mark my words. Go Hawks and welcom back ET.
I respect those thoughts James, but this is wildly optimistic. Bennett, Lynch and Chancellor all received extensions before their final season. The Seahawks were not remotely interested in doing that for Earl Thomas. In fact, they spent a year trying to move on from the old guard (including indulging trade talks for Earl Thomas).
For me nothing has changed. Earl Thomas will be a FA soon. The Seahawks are trying to drive a hard bargain. And Thomas doesn’t want to lose a load of money holding out during the season.
I fully expect Russ to get extended after this year, however if he decides he wants to a fully guaranteed contract that exceeds Aaron Rodgers $35m APY he may decide to play out his contract and go the franchise tag game. Bobby is also a free agent after 2019. What if they come to an agreement with Russ, but they can’t come up with an agreement with Bobby?
Meaning that you can franchise Earl after the season, really piss him off then in 2019 what will you do with hypothetically both Earl and Russ as free agents. Who do you franchise then? I would pick both Russ and Bobby over Earl.
As for everything Earl has said and ever said? He is a different kind of cat yâall. He was going to retire a few years back because he got hurt. He got married wearing a cape. He is a very odd fella. Sounds to me like the hawks are going to waive a bag of money in front of him at some point this season. Pete Carroll on ET getting traded this season today: â Heâs a Seahawkâ. I think emotions are a little high and things will simmer. I was of the opinion that he was out of here but today changed my mind. For now…. hahaha
I’m glad he’s back and it was nice to here Pete’s words today.
But ultimately, I don’t think anything has changed. Again, not sure why anyone thinks the Seahawks will suddenly be open to talks having dodged them all year.
This is good news guys. I don’t understand how this new development could be described as “bitter sweet”. It’s awesome! the alternative was Earl sitting out over half the season. I don’t want the first overall pick, I want rings. This team has all the potential in the world.
I have no problem with Earl sitting out the preseason because he had/has no guarantees. Thank goodness he didn’t report to camp and tear his ACL in some stupid drill. this holdout did no damage compared to Kam’s, maybe some people just need some time to get perspective. I don’t have a problem with the hawks not giving into his demands to trade or extend him. Looks to me like we still value Earl more than any other team as we didn’t accept the 2nd.
I hope he balls out and we extend him.
Rob, I know you have said above that if any team wanted Earl they could have traded for him already, but is it possible the Seahawks turned Dallas down because there is another offer out there contingent on Earl returning to starting form? Not a first but maybe a player plus a pick coming back to us? There have been some rumours on the internet concerning Pittsburg.
You’re talking about the nonsensical rumor of trading Earl for Bell?
Yeah, that makes perfect sense for a team stacked at RB, who just spent their R1 pick on RB who they thought was second only to Saquon Barkley and who they have on the cheap for several seasons. Nothing like adding millions to the payroll for one player at a position you’ve focused on considerably in the offseason
I doubt it. Purely because as soon as the rejection of the Dallas offer became public, Earl announced he was returning to the Seahawks. Probably not a coincidence. This has felt like a two-team slow dance between Seattle and Dallas all year.
It’s a rough one. Really hope this isn’t how people remember an all-time great Seahawk.
Think a lot of this goes back to the CBA and how badly it ended up screwing the players. Not sure what the solution is, but I wonder if star players should start locking in one-two year contracts with higher guaranteed numbers. With teams starting to try and get after rookie guarantees now, a new one really can’t come soon enough.
Teams are within their rights to take the players for everything they can, by and large they do, but it doesn’t mean the players should take it lying down. This offseason we saw Mack, Donald, Thomas, and Bell all hold out to varying degrees. By any account they’re all top 20 or so players in the league. Donald got paid, Mack got traded and paid, Earl got nothing, Bell got franchised. Wonder if more players and agents might take a look at that and decide it’s worth the risk.
Different perspectives out there for sure and they all have validity. Earl Thomas will have collected $55,908,106 from the Seahawks when this season is over. Thatâs not too shabby in my view. If I live to be as old as Yoda I might reach that number. I wish Earl well & I wish the Seahawks another championship asap .
He will have for sure. But he’s one of the absolute elite of the game, and he’s still facing the very real risk that he’s turned his brain into a complete marshmallow. I don’t know how anyone begrudges them their money in the face of the suffering they endure for our entertainment.
Simple math for me:
In 2019, I’d rather have a 2nd rounder a more money to go after a pass rusher than to have a disgruntled 30 year old Earl Thomas.
Rob, 100% agree with your take.
All the fans commenting that the FO will extend him, have you not been paying attention to all the recent third contracts given out to defensive players? They have all been disasters!
I love Earl, he is a HOF talent and helped us get a ring. But he is nearing the wrong side of 30 and the Cowboys offered a second pick, a second pick which we are currently MISSING in 2019.
You really have to ask yourself, is it worth it to get Earl for one year, or have a second round pick for 4 years of cheap club control who could then be extended if they are good?
Sort of answers itself, to me anyway.
Only caveat to this is, from reading the comments it sounds like Dallas has jerked SEA around in previous drafts and trade discussions, and JS really doesn’t want Jerruh to get the best of him so he is standing his ground. But it seems from the outside like JS might be cutting off his nose to spite his face, he wasted a high pick on the Sheldon trade (they went all in so can’t blame him too much), but in this case surely they don’t think they are going all in again after losing so much D talent?
“Is trading Earl an option at this point”
Pete: “He’s a Seahawks, he’s always been a Seahawks, I want him to be one forever”
So maybe he is getting an extension?
I wouldn’t expect Pete Carroll to answer that question any other way.
Anything less and we’d all be reading into it that he’s about to be traded.
If Pete Carroll was really serious about ET being a Seahawk forever, they would’ve had serious contract talks during the off-season and not spent the summer slow dancing with Dallas about a trade.
I’ve waited to see what everyone’s comments are on this before posting my own.
Firstly, from a short term perspective, it’s great to have ET back and suited up. No one can deny what he will bring. And he wil be fired up; I read on another post somewhere that he feels slighted by other teams for not showing interest in him (as well as his noted grievance with the Seattle FO). But now, he needs his best ever season to have some worth at the end of it to Seattle or anyone else.
Secondly, long term, it initially does seem a bit short sighted by the FO in respect of not harvesting a R2 pick from the Cowboys in a trade. However, I’m not so sure this is the end of this for the season. Posters above mentioned in season trades when injuries mount up and contenders don’t want to fall short; I can see this happening and the FO getting more than a 2nd rounder.
Personally I am glad he has reported back -whether or not it is to do with accruing seasons, lost pay, pride, love of the game – he is back, and this can only benefit the D and the younger players. I do not forsee any drop off in his game in a Seattle uniform, and for the record (I was saving this for the Bronco’s thread) I was predicting us for a 10-6 season without Earl. If he stays for the season I underline that prediction 100%. This isn’t to say I think we will even make the play-offs in the ultra-competative NFC with that record.
On a final note, there is a lot of talk about ‘giving up on the season’ already. There are many views on that and opinions vary on what that means, but I know one thing for certain – every poster on here is 100% committed to the team, no-one on here wants the team to tank to get better draft placement, and we all go into each game knowing that the team will compete.
Here’s to 1-0 each week.
GO HAWKS!
I know logically that it’s good he’s returned, but tbh I don’t really care. I would be much happier with a 2nd round pick.
I would hate a new deal for ETIII. It’d probably poison the locker room. I want picks and/or players.
And I love Earl, I think he was the recent years best player hands down. Much better than RW or Bobby. I loved his intensity.
BUT…he’s getting older, he threatened with retiring and had a serious injury, he acted childish with the ‘boys locker room fiasco, he’d cost much and we need the CAP space for RW, maybe Clark, and some better FAs and for depth. And the MOST IMPORTANT thing is that there went down some ugly things between ET and the Hawks org. And Earl is a really emotional guy. He won’t forget and won’t forgive. He most likely will ask like 20% more salary from the Hawks just out of spite, he’ll probably walk in FA and if we tag him, he’ll sit out and cause trouble.
I have a really hard time seeing a happy ending at the end of this for the Hawks + Earl. So I really hope we can trade him for a fair price.
I would’ve been fine with a 2nd round pick. I hope JS will be fine with something like a 2nd round and fifth + sixth maybe, or a 2nd round and some rotational passrusher or some similar deal.
I doubt we will get a 1st for him. And no way to get even more than that
I think that it’s very possible that they will still consider a trade but that they DON’T want to trade Earl to the Cowboys.
If Earl plays like himself he will be a big asset.
If he poisons the locker room he will be down the road. Goodbye Earl. Let’s hope for the best outcome.
Also, I just noticed we were granted a roster exception for ET so he can train with the Hawks without counting towards the 53 man roster. I think JS might cooking something up. It is possible there are trade talks with different teams and they don’t want to cut another player during that period? And he returned to the Hawks so they could show that he’s in game form
I suspect they just donât want to cut someone until the last possible minute. Will be interesting to see who goes. Possibly the LB they brought in this week.
When Chancellor came back they didn’t add him to the active roster (and cut a player to make room for him) until Saturday, the day before the game. No reason to do it earlier: there are probably 2-3 guys the team is thinking about dropping to make room for Thomas. See who does the best in practice all week, and drop the guy who isn’t cutting the mustard.
The roster exemption is just a protection for the team in case he is not ready to go this week. If he is then they need to cut/waive someone. On the off chance he is not, the team isn’t forced to be short handed for the game. I wouldn’t read into it.
Well said Rob. I can’t see why they didn’t take a second for Earl, unless it’s pure spite on Seattles part. I guess it also shows a lack of faith in Thompson as well. Carrol has thought he could handle disgruntled guys before–it worked with Kam, and failed spectacularly with Bennett and Sherm. Does he really think Earl won’t foul up team chemistry? Is he so arrogant he thinks he can Kumbaya Earl into being All In?
This could be another PC and JS Epic Fail, like thinking they could get Tate for 3.5 million a year, or trading for Harvin, or insisting on making Graham block, or drafting McDowell, or thinking they could get Maxwell to stay for 5 mill then having to pay 7 for C Williams….
They’ve made some whopping bad decisions despite two Super Bowls, and I sure hope this isn’t yet another…
The Seahawks did right do keep Earl in the current situation. A 2nd round pick acquired in Sept 2018 will not play before August 2019. A 2nd round pick in April 2018 would’ve been a completely different affair.
So, basically they can keep ET for the season, a season where he absolutely has to blow it, and keep in full control of the situation. They could even discuss a new contract. If the Cowboys then offer a 2nd rounder end of season, or an even heavier price mid-season because they are in win-now mode, then they can still trade him. Or even negotiate a new contract.
From a personal standpoint, I think it would be of utmost importance to handle a future HoF player with some dignity here. Maybe it is another situation than Bennett or Kam, and maybe this view is much too romantic of the plain hard business side of NFL, but they should’ve discussed this early with one of their teams mainstays. I think, that they didn’t is a result from the lots of win-now and McDowell-compesation trading they made.
Well, the Cowboys aren’t going to offer a second rounder at the end of the season. He’ll be a free agent.
(No, I don’t think the Seahawks are going to franchise ET).
I look at it completely differently Rob. I do think the Seahawks will franchise Thomas if a deal can’t be reached between now and seasons end. Unless of course an injury happens then everyone loses. Once Thomas is on the active roster, he will count for 10.4 million against the cap with a base salary of 8.5 million.If franchised in the spring, his salary would be 10.2 million, less than what he will count against the cap this season. My personal feeling is that Thomas feels that he is worth more and normally he would be right, but the market has changed for safeties. I feel management did the right thing in not over paying for a safety and for not trading at a discount just because he wants a new contract.
What negotiation weapons they have, what they ultimately use, what Dallas believes they will use and what you believe they will use are a lot of different things.
What the perceived FA market value and situation for Earl will be, is a whole different story, too.
If Earl has a monster season, be prepared for one or another team to make a push late season a) to prevent Seattle to franchise Earl and b) to prevent other teams driving his market value. If not, they could still actively market him, franchise him or let hm leave for good.
That’s the problem though. There’s a trade deadline so nobody is going to be able to do a deal late season. The only way there’s a trade after the first few weeks of the regular season is if the Seahawks franchise him and deal him (which I think is unlikely).
I guess my only question is after Pete’s comments about wanting ET to retire a Seahawk, is if they offered a small/short extension in the early part of this. Add another 2 years @ ~ roughly his current contract? Obviously ET wants to be Eric Berry $ which just isn’t going to happen.
Does is have to be an absolute “we dont want to extend him?”
And his agent made another brilliant Tweet which I responded to (Robeetle12)….I saw you in there too Rob.
This guy is trying to suck up to us fans but is being rebuked at record levels. This guy is the cause of the whole ordeal in my opinion, however …Earl bought his B.S.
In fairness I’ve since discovered my reaction to that tweet was wrong. I’ve taken it back and apologized. And now I have a greater understanding of the situation.
What have you since learned about the situation that changed your understanding? From the outside it still looks like a pretty tone-deaf tweet, where we should be commending the player for not purposely screwing the team instead of just sort of incidentally screwing the team.
That the Seahawks wouldn’t have enforced the fines had Earl done what the tweet suggested was a possibility (returned on Saturday). So ultimately, yes he could’ve made $500,000 this weekend and extended his absence by a week.
My initial, incorrect assumption was that the Seahawks would’ve enforced about $1.6m in fines. They wouldn’t/couldn’t.
Also, Rob, have you heard anything from agents about what kind of pushback they get from clubs when discussing contract terms such as length/guarantees? I’d like to know if I’m wrong about my assumptions about the willingness to allocate risk, etc.
For example, I assume that if players wanted fully guaranteed deals, they could get them simply by not signing for other kinds of deals. They might get fewer years, less money, etc., but non-fringe players (let’s use your Norwell example from above) should be able to shop around a 2-year guaranteed deal and take their best offer. But maybe I’m wrong and clubs are simply refusing to talk about that, arguing they need to have longer control to feel they are getting value (work players into the system, or help them allocate the cap hit, etc.)
I haven’t heard anything about this. But yes, if they want the guaranteed deals they can’t keep accepting the current existing contracts en masse.
I still feel this guy has been the problem all along despite any tweet. The fact that a platform, IE: Twitter, Instagram, and FB are used as leverage is the laziest form of communication EVER.
What has the world become with all of this S**t?
What happened to people being people and actually talking to each other?
This is sad.
I think we are getting closer to identifying where most of the blame should go as far as guaranteed contracts, it is up to the agents to get that for the players. it is up to players not to accept anything less as well. Don’t blame the teams for trying to get by not to guarantee the contracts if they don’t have to. Just think how close the hawks were to the salary cap when he signed his last contact, it isn’t like they had a bunch of cap room left over. To give him over 50 mill. and to sat that the disrespect wont be forgotten makes him look a bit selfish
Rob,
I assume the rejection of the 2nd round pick is really about trying to acquire an extra lower-round pick to supplement. The Hawks only have five picks in the 2019 draft now, right? So if the Cowboys were to dangle a 5th or 6th rounder on top of the 2nd rounder, maybe that would do the trick? I agree keeping Earl through this season and then losing him in 2019 with possibly no compensation at all can’t be the strategy.
Also, and this is probably way too early to assess, but recall how the 2018 draft played out – there was a huge concentration of similar talent in picks 20 through 50. Do you think it will be similar again this year?
They might be looking for something like the Duane Brown deal (a 2+3) or the Sheldon Richardson deal (a 2+player). Which I suppose is fair enough. But the Cowboys equally can’t be held to Seattle’s trading standard. If the Seahawks are willing to go empty handed that’s fine. If not, they have to be willing to play the market. Nobody forced the Seahawks to make those deals for Brown and Richardson. They can’t force the Cowboys to make the same offer.
Earl wants to go back home and play in Texas.
Jerry Jones is not our favorite trade partner after the past two drafts.
Teams would not be running to fork high draft picks and pay Earl his high demands.
Unless…that team has a talented rookie QB cutting their overall costs and can fit Earl into their cap space.
Now, if that team turns hot with their talented QB, have a great pass rush to compliment Earl’s talent and ample cap space, they may be willing to pay for that trade during the season and bring him back to Texas right?
In a few weeks time JS should pick up the phone and call HOUSTON….
I hope Houston is blacklisted after that Jeremy Lane bamboozle in the Duane Brown trade.
Is Schneider really expecting to get more for a safety than New England got for a QB? Garoppolo went for a 2nd. There isn’t a safety currently in the NFL that warrants a first rounder because the positional value is weak.
Thomas does not make this rebuilding team playoff caliber, and certainly not Superbowl caliber. Earl will bail next year and we should take the second rounder and move on.
It seems like the Seahawks are trying to bargain using their own previous trades as a precedent…
— Harvin (1st + 3rd)
— Graham (1st)
— Sheldon (2nd + Kearse)
— Brown (2nd + 3rd)
They’ve been aggressive to get deals done. Much more aggressive than other teams. It’s very difficult to then turn to those other teams and expect them to be as aggressive as you.
The point on Garoppolo is a very good one. New England got a R2 only for a player San Francisco believe is a young franchise QB. It’s optimistic to think the Seahawks will get more than a R2 for Earl, even if he is a future Hall of Fame safety.
Garoppolo wasn’t a Pro Bowler when traded and I don’t believe he is one yet.I believe Dallas was bargain hunting when they offered a 3rd rounder. Are you desperate? I’ll offer$4000 for a $10000 car. Let’s be real. A Pro Bowler ( multiple) still in his prime isn’t going anywhere for just a 3rd rounder.
Makes me wonder how much they would have offered for Tom Brady instead of an unproven Garoppolo? I’m sure he would have garnered a first and third round pick.
Based on previous 49er history = they had 5 quarterbacks on the team the year before = if Garoppolo is the QB of the future it was more of a lucky decision than a planned one.
This moveânot trading Earl for a 2nd-round pick and risk getting nothing for him after the seasonâmakes more sense to me now that Iâve thought about it. Itâs not what I would do, but itâs absolutely something Pete Carroll would do.
You guys remember the movie, âGattaca?â Towards the end, Ethan Hawkeâs character challenges his brother to a swim like they did when they were kids. Despite being genetically inferior, Hawke beats his brother, and when his brother asks how he can swim out so far away from land, Hawke says, âI never save anything for the journey back.â
Thatâs Pete Carroll. He doesnât save anything for the journey back. This team is undeniably better in the short-term with Thomas than it would be without him, and a 2nd round pick that wonât benefit the team until 2019 wasnât enough in his eyes. Iâm not saying that Pete ignores the long-term consequences of his decisions, but he lives in the now and is committed to taking the best shot he can each and every year. Next year is a problem for next year.
If a team comes along and offers a first or a package of good picks, I think Seattle would do that deal. But giving away something that could help him win now in exchange for something that can only help him win later is not something Pete would do unless someone knocks his socks off with an offer. We may see this as a rebuilding year, or retooling, or whatever you want to call it. I guarantee you Pete doesnât see 2018 this way. Thomas gives Seattle a better chance to win in 2018, and for Pete Carroll that is the bottom line. I really donât think itâs any more complicated than that.
As to whether it turns out to be the right call, only time will tell.
Everything you say is absolutely accurate. 100%.
I’m not sure that’s a good thing, mind.
Agree 100%. People always cry, “He could walk next year and we’d get nothing!” So? That’s kinda how life always works. If my coffee maker breaks down and I have to buy a new one, I’m not crying about how I could have sold my old one at a garage sale a year ago for $10. ‘Cause I got to make coffee for a year with it.
Is one year of Earl + the possibility of a compensatory pick more valuable than no Earl + Dallas’s 2019 2nd-rounder? Assuming the worst, and there’s no compensatory pick, you still get a year of Earl vs. a year of no Earl. And a year of Earl might be the difference between playoffs and no playoffs. Pete thinks we can win this year. So do I.
We WON the SB with a less experienced Russ, Baldwin and Tate at WR and Lynch. IF Carson and/or Penney stay healthy, I think we have a solid facsimile in Russ, Baldwin + Lockett, and Carson + Penney. I love Lynch’s attitude, but he averaged 4.2 YPA and 78 YPG. Not exactly Eric Dickerson numbers. Next year we made the SB with even less in the WR corps. We keep Russ clean, we’ve got a decent shot.
The defense *should* be worse, but I have a lot of faith in Pete to get it to workable.
The SB XLVIII champs would crush the 2018 Seahawks imho. Especially if they played at the Clink đ. Lynchâs effect goes well beyond stats.
There will never be another Marshawn Lynch. A genuine legend and generational player. One who should be in the HOF.
“We WON the SB with a less experienced Russ, Baldwin and Tate at WR and Lynch.”
And one of the best defensive seasons in NFL history. Like all-time great. I’m excited for the 2018 Hawks defense but it won’t even come close to the SB team.
And an all time great secondary too
‘Keep Russ clean’
Love the guy, and this isn’t saying the O-line hasn’t been bad, but my man creates more pressure for himself than any QB in the league. Leaves clean pockets at least a handful of times each game to play backyard football.
My problem with this, is it assumes Schneider as a GM agrees with this type of short term thinking or he couldn’t do his job because Pete has authority over him. If that’s true then Paul Allen should be looking for replacements.
John Schneider knows he needs picks for the next draft and he can turn a 2nd round into more picks for the team, so I don’t see as a GM why he wouldn’t make the deal. If John Schneider is really holding out on trading Earl because he wants better picks then doesn’t it mean he has really high valuation of Earl and he thinks Earl can still play?
I see this as really simple. They wanted to make a deal with Earl, but they won’t negotiate if he’s not showing up in camp. Tyler Lockett and Duane Brown are both in camp so they are able to get it done. Now Earl has showed up but that doesn’t guarantee a deal will get done. At least I think they will try to sign him to one more contract.
I know for a fact, and this is information from an excellent source at the heart of the situation, that the Seahawks informed Earl Thomas at the end of last season that they weren’t planning to extend his contract this year. There was no ‘if he shows up at camp we’ll talk’. If Earl Thomas had attended training camp and OTA’s in full, he’d have still been playing on his existing contract in 2018.
I don’t know the exact reason for this position from the team. However, I suspect it’s because they paid Chancellor, Lynch and Bennett third contracts and were simply left with a lot of dead cap money and not much production on the field. And they don’t want that to happen again. Whether that’s the right or wrong decision, we’ll see in time.
Friendly reminder: Jameis Winston still not allowed in Ubers.
#banned
The Franchise Tag solves every problem you posed. The $ cost would be less than what we are paying him right now. And isn’t ETIII better than anyone we could possibly draft in the second round?
We all know Thomas only knows how to play football one way. 100% 100% of the time. So even if Thomas was pissed, we’d still have a better team than without him. Plus, we can always trade him during the season to a team that is desperate.
1. The $ cost would not be less than he is being paid now. The franchise tag guarantees a player 120% of their last deal. So he would earn approximately $12m in 2019 under the franchise tag, fully guaranteed.
2. Is Earl Thomas better than anyone they could draft in round two? In 2018 yes. But if Earl Thomas leaves after this season with no compensation (very realistic), that second rounder (with four years of cheap control) could be very useful for a rebuilding roster. And let’s not forget, two of the best players on the roster currently are a second rounder (Bobby Wagner) and a third rounder (Russell Wilson).
3. I will keep saying this in the knowledge that I don’t know for sure and could be wrong. But teams generally don’t get desperate and make big bold moves to address the safety position mid-season. Especially when the said player is a free agent in a matter of months.
A second round pick from the Cowboys? considering all the comp picks that get added to the draft, that’s like a third round pick from Cleveland. One year of Earl is worth much more, especially considering all the young DBs on this team that need Earl’s tutoring this year.
We can’t be of the mindset that the 2019 draft is more important that winning games now. We shouldn’t go there.
Use Earl for all he’s worth now, and franchise him in 2019 if he won’t sign a reasonable deal.
If the goal is to win a championship as rapidly as possible then the 2019 draft might be more important than another sour tasting farewell at this seasonsâ conclusion. Debatable but my hope is a title over âall inâ now.
The highest round you can get a comp pick is the end of the 3rd round. A native second round pick is its actual value and doesnât get diminished by comp picks.
There are no comp picks in rounds one and two. So itâs not like getting a R3 from Cleveland.
Sheri said in an interview last week that Pete did not have a say in his release. That made it sound like JS is making all the final decisions. We have discussed here that Pete makes the final decision. Thoughts?
PC is the executive VP and JS is GM under him. PC makes the calls and relies on JS for advice.
Silly auto-correct. I meant âShermanâ and not âSheriâ.
Pete is the boss
Football is back boys! Ugly first game, but it had a pretty exciting ending.
The Eagles are a powerhouse. Foles looked abysmal yet they still put up 18 on a really good Atlanta defense. Once Wentz comes back, they are going to streamroll teams. I can easily see them back in the Superbowl.
Football was back last weekend. Not sure what tonight was. The NFL is a terrible product. Foles threw 34 times for 117 yards?!? WTF?!?
Steve Sarkisian takes over a Falcons offense that averaged 34 PPG in 2016 through 19 games. Since he’s taken over? 21 PPG in 19 games. Dude made them 2 TD’s worse. Pro football baby!
They should’ve replaced Sark at the end of last season. There were some good alternatives at OC on the market.
I only watched part of the game, but when I was paying attention, “what happened to Matt Ryan?”
He did not look good. He had one elite season, hard to argue he has been elite any other year.
dare I say, overrated?
I mean this was guy who.blew a 28-3 lead in the SB for God’s sake. Jalen Ramsey was right about him.
His completion % when targeting Julio Jones in the red zone the last 20 throws is lower than Aaron Rodgers last 20 hail mary’s. He’s 1-20 when targeting Julio in there the past 2 years combined.
Eagles DL won the game….we need to create pressure to win, hope we have some stars in the making.
FYI, Mike Salk quoted a Tweet from you this morning on Brock & Salk. Both of them thought you were good at what you do. That’s not news to us here.
.
Really? That’s cool. Thanks for letting me know.
In other news, Keaunu Neal tore his ACL, and is out for the season. I wonder if Dan Quinn will come looking for some free safety advice?
It would only be viable if Atlanta were bringing in Thomas as a 2018 rental. And they’re not going to pay more than Dallas offered for that. Because next year, Keanu Neal will be back as the starter.
The one thing about a trade and 1 year rental though is that the other team may more like get a compensatory pick if Earl leaves given that the Hawks are likely to pick up a bunch of free agents next year to fill up their roster. So the value may be greater to another team for a rental if it thinks he is the missing ingredient to make it to the big dance as it expects to get back a high compensatory.
After watching Atlanta on Thursday, I donât think they will see one year of Earl Thomas as the answer to their problems.