Upon the draft’s conclusion next Thursday, we’ll be reviewing the prospects taken by Seattle before moving on to 2013. We’ll get into this subject more when we break down the tape of various prospects, but I wanted to publish early videos on three key quarterbacks. In my eyes, Matt Barkley is the clear #1 next year and several teams will already have an eye directed towards the USC quarterback. But who are some of the others to think about?
Regulars who visited between September-December will know I’m not a fan of Oklahoma’s Landry Jones. Had he declared for this year’s event, he would’ve been a mid-rounder at best in my eyes – so no surprises he chose not to declare. But three other quarterbacks are a little more intriguing.
We touted Virginia Tech’s Logan Thomas on our top-50 watchlist for 2011 and he didn’t disappoint – showing enough potential as a first-year starter to warrant genuine excitement. He is a possible #1 overall pick next year. Tyler Wilson will have to deal with the departure of Bobby Petrino at Arkansas, but he was also the most prolific SEC quarterback last year. I like Wilson, but I do have some concerns (all in good time…). Tyler Bray has had to deal with injury problems at Tennessee and he needs to add weight, but he throws a pretty ball. Tape supplied below by JMPasq, expect full and detailed breakdowns after the 2012 draft. Expect the latest SDB community mock draft pick later today.
Jeff Tuel is another QB to keep an eye on. He missed most of last year due to injuries but if he stays healthy he can surprise a lot of people. Probably not a first round QB but I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up going in the second round.
Rob,
any chance Wilson enters the supplemental draft, or does Arkansas steady the boat fast enough to make next year worth his time?
Also, it so freaking unreal how easy Logan Thomas makes his passes look. Not a lazy, but incredible natural strength that he seems to make throws, that cousins, osweiler, etc. all have to hurl their bodies into to make; that look like he’s just going through the motions on a check down, only to see it 15 to 20 yards down the way. Unbelievable.
Peter – Wilson will not enter the supp. draft. It’s a blow to lose a coach, but there’s no need for him to bail. Wouldn’t be seen in a positive light by the NFL. This is a great opportunity for him – if he succeeds without Petrino his stock is boosted. Thomas is a star in the making.
Every year it feels like there are going to be a tn of great QB’s in the draft. The “this is the year of the QB,” talk gets ramped up right until the end when players must declare. But this upcoming year I can truly see it playing out that way. In fact I would like to see it play out that way in as much as a crazy melee for draft position, trades, and coaches particularly ours to be able to decide based on prefferential merits as opposed to simply who is left. The surgeon like poise of Barkeley, the firepower of Thomas, Wilson’s all around game (thanks for clearing that up above, makes sense when you say it would only help his game), Landry Jones’ potential due to scheme for crazy numbers (don’t care for him but someone will) Even a guy like Keith Price could declare if his stock is high enough and he keeps working Sark’s system….could make for a great next year. Plus all the countless players I don’t even know about yet.
Rob, I think you should check out this breakdown of Matt Barkley.
http://fantasyfootballmetrics.com/Player_News/2011/NFL%20Draft/NFL%20Draft_2012_Barkley_12-24-2011.htm
I don’t expect it to change your mind or anything, but it’s an interesting read nonetheless.
For the record, I am not as high on Barkley as everyone else is. He still has a season, so I believe he’ll only get better, but I have my doubts that he’s the best QB in the 2013 class.
Rob, I think you should check out this breakdown of Matt Barkley.
http://fantasyfootballmetrics.com/Player_News/2011/NFL%20Draft/NFL%20Draft_2012_Barkley_12-24-2011.htm
I don’t expect it to change your mind or anything, but it’s an interesting read nonetheless.
For the record, I am not as high on Barkley as everyone else is. He still has a season, so I believe he’ll only get better, but I have my doubts that he’s the best QB in the 2013 class.
Sorry for the double post, my computer froze up for a second. Also, they do some stat cutting to support their claim. It’s not entirely without merit, but it does discredit them to a degree.
I also like Geno Smith.
John – That is an interesting report. The thing that bugs me about those “metrics” is that it really discredits the type of offense a QB plays in and the type of throws asked. The one thing that always bothered me about Luck was the minimal amount of difficult throws Luck was asked to make. Yes, his WRs didn’t compare to USC, but he had a plethora of big time TE talent as well as a dominant running attack. Not saying he won’t be good, but I think Barkley is getting knocked because of the Leinarts and Sanchez’ that preceded him. I wonder if he will receive the same credit Luck does by being able to call/run his own offense. Barkley is not the same specimen as Luck, but I think Barkley can be Matt Ryan if not a little better. Lastly, I haven’t seen a QB progress through reads even close to Barkley…Luck included who I truly believe had a TON of scripted “audibles/reads.”
I doubt very much Bray or Thomas declare early. Their resume’s would be very much like Tanneyhill, and the risk of falling is significant. Falling out of the top 10 picks, as noted by PFT, is a huge money loss.
Wilson is a nice second round player. Similar to Dalton in his style of play. Again, I’d be surprised if any of these three are either there to pick or have Seattle interested.
This is not a negative response. It is the reality of the situation. Thomas is a one year starter, and Bray just missed an entire season due to injury. Wilson is a streaky QB, who may or may not get the benefit of the doubt when his team struggles this year.
I don’t even know what to say about that report except it seems skewed toward QBs that play in tougher conferences. Maybe Barkley should tranfer to the Southeast so he can get some respect. Or maybe he will run up the scores next year to inflate his draft value.
I know this is a little off topic but what is the possibility that, if given a chance, the FO opted out of the first round entirely this year in order to have more ammunition next to move up for a QB they really like?
MJ- My big thing with Barkley, is he has incredible WR talent, in my eyes, and I feel his deep ball completions have a lot to do with WR being very open, or his WR making a great catch. Secondly, Barkley doesn’t throw over the middle alot, and I haven’t seen enough of it to make me confident in his over the middle accuracy. Barkley certainly has a very high floor right now, and his pump fake and progressions are great. I think he’ll get better because his football IQ is very high, but overall, Luck is a better prospect. I compared Luck’s junior film to Barkley’s to compare and Luck just looked better. Sure he had Harbaugh, but Luck’s consistency over his college career can’t be ignored.
And believe me when I say I have watched Barkley over and over and over again. I think I’ve gone through all his scouting videos (I think there are 11 or so…) 5 or 6 times in the last month or two and have tried to become as confident in Barkley as Rob, and most everyone on this blog are, but I have concerns.
Now, do I think he’s a bust? No, not yet, but I’m just not “sold” on the guy. I’ll be watching USC extremely closely next season. He made leaps from his sophomore season, and if that progression continues, its likely he’ll be completely worthy of #1 QB prospect. But yah, I still need convincing.
Michael (CLT) – Tyler Bray will have starting experience in three seasons by the end of the 2013 season. He did not miss a whole season. Logan Thomas could be the #1 pick and will have two years starting experience. They are very different to Tannehill.
Neil – I think it’s a stretch because trades that include future stock aren’t very common. But Seattle would consider those kind of offers, sure.
John – I can totally understand what you are seeing. That’s what is fun about this stuff. And I agree Luck is a better prospect. I just think the hype over Luck is out of control. He ran a pro offense but hardly ever had to make pro throws. Not saying he can’t, but he didn’t put a lot on tape in that regard.
Landry Jones claims that he received a 1st round grade from the advisory committee. Sure, he was a train wreck in the final few games of the season, but Ryan Tannehill also ended the season weakly and had three different games with 3+ interceptions, and he has a real chance to be a top 10 pick.
If Jones improves even a little next year and tones down the negatives, it honestly would not shock me if he was drafted in the top 10 next year. I don’t think I’d want to see the Seahawks drafting him that high, but odds are there will be a few teams that believe they can get results out of him and pull the trigger early.
Bray competed in 4 games his freshman year and six as a sophomore. If Bray plays a full year in 2012 it would be 22 games. He is a big, athletic kid with a big arm… Like Tanneyhill.
I understand you are not a fan of my analysis, but I am sply providing my opinion. Being right will be determined years from now.
Different opinions are what you are striving for, no?
Alot of people are talking about Tyler Wilson and how loosing his coach will wreck his 2012 season, but it really depends on who they bring in. If someone like Mariucci comes in, I can see Wilson’s grade rising. It really depends on who the next coach is.
Kip – Tannehill’s toolsy though, and the physical potential is clear to see. Jones is extremely limited. If he goes in round one next year, it will laugh out loud funny.
Michael – I am not striving for one person to come on this blog and basically complain or be negative about everything. That is what you are doing right now.
John,
I thought that was a pretty terrible article, personally. Laughable at times. Especially the part where he simply removes Barkley’s best games one by one (including even the Oregon game, and Oregon has a good defense) and then passes judgment based on that. That’s just terrible analysis and reeks of confirmation bias. I wonder where RG3 and Luck’s stats go if you strip away their six or seven best games? Are you kidding me? And that’s not even mentioning the fact that evaluating college QBs based solely on stats is a fools errand.
That said, I hope more people think like him because I don’t want to see Barkley go #1 overall next year. Though if Barkley doesn’t go #1, it won’t be for such silly reasons. It will probably be because very few 6’2″ QBs go #1 overall, and/or because Barkley’s athleticism is average.
Rob, minus the mobility Jones is toolsy too. For pocket passing teams that run a lot of 1 read plays, Jones will score high. I don’t think Jones was lying when he said he got a 1st round grade.
Disagreement and negativity differ. If that is how you view my responses, not much I can do except agree.
Kip – I’m not convinced. I don’t think I’ve ever been so underwhelmed by a quarterback. Even in the pocket, he’s so reliant on the call and things around him clicking. If he goes in the first 2-3 rounds, I’ll be completely shocked.
Michael – You constantly complain. This is a draft forum. Opinions welcome. Constant negativity isn’t.
I got to ask rob, from 18th Apirl mock draft I was labeled a drunk JS for my ideas, and I’m kindia offended. Should i not post or should i continue? Was not trying to offend anyone was just throwing out my Ideas.
No please feel free to keep posting Mark. Everyone is welcome – I just get tired of constant complaining.
I gotta be honest Rob, I dont see where Michael is being negative or complaining. As reader, I just see him sharing an opinion that differs from yours and he is not rubbing it in our face. It’s just different.
Fargo – Some examples from the last week courtesy of Michael (CLT):
“This blog and Courtney Upshaw would make for an interesting study in group-think.”
“This list of available is really weak.” – On the latest SDB mock suggestions.
“Factory build, group-think inspired picks.”
There are more examples of his negativity (seems to disagree with everyone on everything) and complaining about the blog.
I always thank you Rob. I need a daily fix of football and you aid me in my quest.
madmark, you asked Rob but I figured I would add that I enjoyed your posts and thoughts. It is nice to read comments that add to a discussion, bring ideas, and discuss current and potential prospects. I look for daily football speak and come here almost daily. Too often the discussions on boards get flat and things are repeated. keeping things fresh is always good.
Btw- I am getting nervous when I hear JS state they rate tannehill high and if he sits at 12 they would pick him. Now, I want to think it is 1 week before the draft and this is a tactic, but I do not recall JS declaring he would pick someone if at # before. Not that I am against this QB, just with other needs and value I do not see it.
Meatwad – Somehow I doubt that they have Tannehill rated very highly. It sounds like they are feigning interest to drive up Tannehill’s price.
And I say that in part because he reminds me so much of Jake Locker, who was not rated highly by our front office at all.
I understand. Sorry, I hadn’t seen those posts.
Nice work on this article BTW! 🙂
Rob,
Last year I rated Jake Locker in the 2nd round. A lot of people did. He went 8th overall.
Last year I rated Christian Ponder in the 5th or 6th round. He went 12th overall.
Last year I had Andy Dalton in the 3rd or 4th round. He went early 2nd round.
This year I’d probably put Ryan Tannehill in the early 3rd, and I’ve made it pretty clear that I’ve been a Tannehill fan from day 1. Now its looking like there is a real chance he could go top 10 or so.
If Jones was in this draft, I wouldn’t rate him at all for the Seahawks, but I’d rate him probably just a touch behind Tannehill- mid 3rd round. If those guys can be first rounders (or near 1st rounders), I don’t really understand why Jones wouldn’t. I’m not saying that Jones deserves to be a 1st rounder, but I do think he has a very good shot at being in the 1st round discussion next year (just not for Seattle).
Thanks Rob. I really like this web site. I see people who are as concerned about the seahawks as I am , I might sould like i m one way but like rob i read everything posted and then i weigh it and keep the good stuff and throw out the fullish dreamy stuff. As for QB in 2013 I have to say its like mocking round 3 to 7 in this draft more than a year worth of variatables can happen. I can’t fathom it so i m not going to try. If i upset anyone I apologize was never my intention. being a Seattle Seahawk fan in Montana sucks, this is Denver Bronco teritory. With peyton signing it sucks here and i ‘m forced to searched the web to find Seahawk stuuff, thus i happened to show up here.
This is my last message for a couple days ,as i’m traveling back to Washington state. Thanks Rob for the web site. We all want the Seahawks to get better. To Jeremy, Seattleaztec, D, and Misfit I got ya thinking about Hightower and that was all i wanted to do.