Both Mingo and Sam Montgomery are limited in terms of how they create pressure and the big question that needs to be answered is whether they’re simply effective as a duo against college lineman, or whether they can excel once separated at the next level. I don’t think either would’ve gone before Bruce Irvin this year.

At the same time, he tends to get happy feet in the pocket. Sometimes he could just be a little more composed and set – let the play develop and deliver. As soon as he senses pressure he looks for space and I’d like to see him stand tall in the pocket a bit more. He doesn’t have a classic release – it’s slingy. That hasn’t been a problem for a guy like Philip Rivers but it has for others. It’s not the kind of thing that’ll put you off a quarterback, but at this early stage we can highlight it. Wilson also blows hot and cold and I’d like to see him have more complete games where he just flat out dominates – he’s capable of it.

Essentially that’s why he’s going back to Arkansas, for another year as the starter in preparation for likely being a first round pick. I think teams will love this guy, especially if he can lead his team to the SEC title which isn’t beyond the realms of possibility. He’s the best quarterback in that conference in 2011 and alongside Barkley and Logan Thomas a legitimate candidate to go #1 overall next year. I also think he’s good enough to shine despite Petrino’s departure. It makes him one of the more intriguing players this year and why I ranked him at #7 on our top 40 watch list.

We’ve seen eight quarterbacks drafted in round one in the last two drafts so Barkley won’t sink, but if a physically superior quarterback (such as Logan Thomas) has an excellent year there’s every chance he won’t go #1 overall. There are other things that could lead to a minor fall. Can Barkley live up to expectations after a fantastic 2011 season? Will a fourth year starting lead to over-analysis if he’s less than perfect? Will teams be slightly concerned by the lack of success experienced by previous USC quarterbacks like Matt Leinart and Mark Sanchez?

Pete Carroll has a strong bond with Matt Barkley. I think both would love the opportunity to work together again in the NFL, for multiple reasons. And despite John Schneider’s penchant for picks, it won’t prevent Seattle from moving up the board for the right player if required. If the Seahawks are in a position where they feel they need to draft a quarterback in round one in 2013 (and who knows if that’ll be the case), they’ll probably be in a position where moving up would be manageable. Still, we’re getting well ahead of ourselves here…

Wilson fits the criteria as a player who should really benefit from Mike Leach’s presence at Washington State. Whether he ever develops into a first round prospect remains to be seen, but he’ll probably get plenty of targets next season.

Russell Wilson... meet Bruce Irvin

A few days after Seattle drafted Russell Wilson, I made an argument for the third round pick starting as a rookie. The point being – Seattle’s situation at quarterback remains unclear and they may still need to prepare for a bigger investment next year. So if the situation arises where there’s little between Wilson, Matt Flynn and Tarvaris Jackson in camp, why not see what the rookie can do? The financial investment placed in Flynn and Jackson is, in my view, less of a commitment than the third round stock placed in Wilson.

The piece created a fair old debate, with strong views for and against. Yet most sections of the media still see this as a non-issue and that Flynn will be the presumed starter. After signing his contract early, Wilson participated in mini-camps between over the weekend. He threw around 400 passes and took substantially more snaps than any other player over the course of the three-days. Carroll made a point of studying the offense on Friday and talked afterwards about putting the workload on Wilson to see how he performed.

The conclusion?

“He’s going to be in the competition; he’s shown us he needs to be,” @PeteCarroll said of Russell Wilson and the Seahawks’ 2012 QB battle

— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) May 13, 2012

There’s no reason to jump the gun here. After all, Carroll admitted on Friday that things will be different when ‘the varsity‘ arrives. Wilson is going to have to beat out two veterans, including the incumbent starter, to start as a rookie. People were right to list him as an outsider in this race, but they’d be wrong to assume anyone’s a clear front runner.

Eventually people will take Carroll on his word and accept this is a competition. A lot of teams use that word when talking about their quarterbacks – Cleveland are still maintaining they’ll have a competition despite drafting a soon-to-be 29-year-old rookie in the first round. When Carroll says competition, he means it. When he wants to crown a starter, he will do (see: Hasselbeck, 2010 & Jackson, 2011). This is wide open.

And while nothing will be decided this weekend as rookies and free agents try out, this was Wilson’s chance to get into the equation. Struggle this weekend, and he was probably looking at a red-shirt year as the team’s #3 quarterback. He’s cleared the first hurdle.

I’m interested to see how the Seahawks go about this over the upcoming months. It’s difficult to conduct a full-blown three-way competition, splitting snaps evenly. Pre-season games are unfairly weighted against whoever takes the opening series or two when the veterans are on the field. Carroll will need to have an angle on who’s most likely to be the starter going into that first game.

Flynn is the favorite in many people’s eyes, but I’m still sceptical. This is a player who was expected to generate mass-interest in free agency. Peyton Manning helped take some of the edge off that, but none of the big players for Manning were ever expected to pursue Flynn (Denver, Arizona, Tennessee). Cleveland basically decided Colt McCoy and taking their chance on a 29-year-old rookie being available was a preferable alternative. Miami had a meeting with Flynn, but never really seemed to be in aggressive pursuit as they tried (and failed) to entice Manning to Florida. Why was his market so quiet? Does the league still carry doubts about his potential to start? And maybe if they do, those doubts are justified?

Seattle took an opportunity to add to the QB competition at a modest price, but I’m not sure they would’ve shown quite as much interest if a Miami or Cleveland got the chequebook out in hour one of free agency. People don’t see it now, but the salary commitment to Flynn is a pure bargain compared to the figures people were talking about after his performance for Green Bay against Detroit. If he is as good as that display suggested, the Seahawks took no gamble in finding out. This is not a Kevin Kolb contract.

Sure, the team has committed $10m in guarantees to Flynn. But let’s not forget that it’s only $2m more than the team has paid Tarvaris Jackson over the course of a 2-year deal. Flynn’s contract, if he ends up being a backup, is comparable to that of Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst. If he succeeds, the incentives are greater. I appreciate there’s still a good chance Flynn starts for Seattle in 2012, but he’ll almost certainly have to earn that spot just like anyone else. And if Jackson or Wilson looks better, then they’ll get the nod.

As for Jackson, despite a lot of supportive language about his future and ability to compete, the additions of Flynn and Wilson are hardly an endorsement of his 2011 season. Seattle’s quarterbacks combined for 26 touchdowns and 30 interceptions in 2010 and 2011. They really need someone who can score 26 touchdowns in a single season and have a lot less turnovers. Jackson earned a lot of respect in the locker room for toughing it out last season and he’s earned the right to compete this year. But there can be no complaints from anyone if he’s a casualty further down the line.

In all honesty I wouldn’t be surprised if Wilson takes the job. Sure, he’d be be the first third-round rookie to start since 1973. Yet I’d argue he’s the more dynamic player out of the three. Physically he fits the ‘point-guard’ role better than the other two players. The Seahawks front office has done nothing but rave about him since the draft. And if he performs better than the other two quarterbacks, then why wouldn’t he start? The Seahawks believe in this guy. The presence of Flynn and Jackson gives them a reason not to start him if he’s not ready. But at the same time, their presence doesn’t prevent him from starting if he is.

Russell Wilson might as well have 'third round pick' written on his jersey

Although only a minor announcement at the time with little relevance to most people, I took some interest when the jersey numbers were announced for Bruce Irvin and Russell Wilson. Irvin will wear #51, the reverse of the position he was taken in the draft (#15 overall). Wilson will wear #3, the round in which he was picked by Seattle.

Both players became major talking points after they were drafted. Irvin was considered a specialist who couldn’t take a lot of snaps, despite Seattle’s high-profile use of the LEO. Wilson was considered too short to play in the NFL despite a prolific college career at NC State and Wisconsin. Who’d blame these guys for having a chip on their shoulder?

Are the Seahawks tapping into that? It seems that way. After all, any edge you can find in a player is worth exploiting. Pete Carroll is building a programme around competition, and this appears to be just another form of that. Competition isn’t just about beating out the guy challenging for your position on the roster, it’s also about competing against outside factors.

Irvin was knocked as a reach at #15. The collective gasps among the league’s media were loud enough to wake a small child in Australia. It’s since been revealed that Irvin’s placement in the 2012 draft wasn’t a surprise among other teams as he was expected to leave the board at some point in the 20′s, if not sooner. Yet the Seahawks continue to be criticised and indirectly that’s a critique of Irvin. The media expects him to fail. They want to be proven right.

The choice of jersey #51 may just be a quirky decision on Irvin’s behalf given that he can’t use the #15. However, I like the idea that it’s all part of the process of proving the pick was justified. He could’ve chosen any number between 50-79 or 90-99. He went with the reverse of #15. Never mind that the number is closely associated with a recent Seahawks favorite (Lofa Tatupu), Irvin wants to make it his own and at the same time prove he was worth the big investment.

Russell Wilson chose #3 despite wearing #16 at both NC State and Wisconsin. Is it pure coincidence that he went with the number representing the round he was chosen? This is a guy that did nothing but put up great numbers in college, transition between schemes and keep winning. His senior year could easily have ended with a BCS Championship appearance. Yet when people talked about draft grades, it was always ‘mid-to-late round pick’. Just because of the height. I was one of the people making such a judgement on this very blog, while Kip had the smarts to see through it. In hindsight, I wish I’d not been so narrow minded.

Seattle drafted Wilson at the earliest point they had to. They knew they didn’t need to panic in round two, but didn’t risk waiting until round four where they had two picks. John Schneider believes he’s one of the top players in the draft, but he’s still a third round pick. Pete Carroll says he’s the one guy in this years class that gives you a chance to have a great player. He’s still a third round pick. Why? Just because of the height. A lot of people said he’d be a first round pick if he was a few inches taller. They ended up being correct, because I get the impression Seattle would’ve happily drafted this guy sooner if they had to.

Is Wilson using that as a motivational tool? Perhaps. Publicly he’s discussed how he’s dealt with the height issue throughout his career mainly because it’s unfortunately all anyone wants to talk about. Even members of Seattle’s media continue to ask him about it. At one point on Friday someone asked Pete Carroll if they’d acquired ‘lifts’ for his shoes. Hilarious. Someone, surprisingly, actually laughed at the question. Carroll did not. In Wilson’s press conference on the same day, he was asked about height and size of his hands – like there’s nothing else to discuss. Cue a bit of an awkward moment, but how many times have you seen Drew Brees asked to hold up his hands? Or Aaron Rodgers? It’s almost as if the Seahawks have drafted a different species to play the position. He’s a shorter quarterback. Time to get over it. For me it’s an issue that was rightly discussed a lot during the draft process when trying to project his stock, but it’s a moot point now. He went in the third round, he’s in Seattle and he’s ready to compete. Let’s see how he goes.

I’m not sure if Wilson or Irvin for that matter feed off such things. Some guys need that element of doubt from the outside to keep driving on. Others deal with criticism and doubters differently, keeping negativity away and concentrating only on things they can control. If Wilson succeeds, he’ll be succeeding with a constant reminder on his jersey. Third round, #3. If Irvin succeeds, people will see the number one and the number five. A nod to the critics who cried reach when Seattle made him the #15 pick.

The Seahawks pretty much created a team of players with a similar attitude. Chris Clemons – rejected by Philadelphia but finding success as an upper echelon pass rusher in Seattle, playing in a position he was born to play. Red Bryant – suddenly a defensive MVP when many wondered if his days were numbered with the Seahawks. Brandon Browner, Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor – former CFL defensive back and two late rounders now part of possibly the most dynamic secondary in the NFL.

On offense, Marshawn Lynch – a guy considered a trouble-maker in Buffalo and dumped for two late rounders but now the team’s heart and soul in the running game. Mike Williams – seemingly out of the game, but took the chance offered by Seattle to resurrect his career. Doug Baldwin – an UDFA snubbed by even his old coach at Stanford, but now vowing to become the teams #1 receiver. The spine of Seattle’s roster is built around guys who were challenged to prove a point.

Finding players with that edge has helped shape the team and it seems like most of the 2012 draft class has the same ‘chip on shoulder’ mentality. That can only be good news for the Seahawks.

Pete Carroll said it's up to Wilson whether there will be a 3-way race for the starting job. In other words, there's going to be a 3-way race for the starting job this Summer.

There is so much to like about Russell Wilson.  He’s accurate.  He’s smart.  He’s a fast learner.  He’s very athletic and elusive.  He plays his best on crucial downs and in the 4th quarter.  His confidence, mental toughness, and leadership ability is within spitting distance of Tebow territory, but unlike Tim Tebow, Russell Wilson can actually throw the football, and throw it quite well.  Metaphorical character and interview meters were shattered when he sat down with NFL coaches and general managers.  Jon Gruden- infamous for being tough on young quarterbacks- stumped for Wilson with all the bias and passion of a proud father.  Gruden had only met with Wilson for one day.

To say that I personally am a fan of the Wilson selection would be an understatement.  I think that Drew Brees was more of a pioneer than an exception to the rule, and that Russell Wilson is latest of a very rare breed of quarterback to come down the pipeline.  However, unchecked optimism has a way of biting people in the ass, so I think it’s of crucial importance to analyze Wilson with the same degree of critical attention that I would give anyone else.  Then again, finding faults in Wilson’s game is no easy task.  Wilson grades out between good to great in just about every category other than height.  As such, digging into his flaws has taken more effort and closer attention to detail.

Last week, I looked into the claim that Wilson’s accuracy dips in the pocket.  My conclusion from studying three games downplayed that concern while raising another: that being his tendency to overthrow when going intermediate and deep.  Today I’ll cover a handful of other critical observations that I was able to come up with.

The Wisconsin effect.

At NC State, Russell Wilson had a career 135.5 passer rating, a 57.8% completion rate, 7.2 yards per attempt, and a 76/26 TD/INT ratio.  He also averaged 120 rushing attempts per season.  Those are Jake Locker type numbers almost across the board, if a bit better.  I guess that’s fitting, as both quarterbacks flashed talent but lacked much of a supporting cast.

Wilson went to Wisconsin in 2011 and all he did was have the best statistical season in Division I history:  a 191.8 passer rating, a 72.8% completion rate, 10.3 yards per attempt, and a 33/4 TD/INT ratio.  How much of that performance was Wilson taking a step forward, and how much of that performance was Wilson capitalizing on an environment that was conducive to putting up huge numbers?  Wisconsin has a recent history of statistically strong quarterbacks who did nothing in the NFL.  Scott Tolzien being the most recent example.  Tolzien posted a very similar stat line for Wisconsin in 2010:  a 165.9 passer rating, a 72.9% completion rate, 9.2 yards per attempt, and a 16/6 TD/INT ratio.

To be sure, Wilson is probably not as good a quarterback as his Wisconsin numbers would suggest, but the draft status of Wilson’s predecessors is ultimately irrelevant.  Quarterbacks are not drafted purely on their stats.  They are drafted for the qualities they possess.  I’ve scouted Tolzien.  He was a good quarterback.  He checks reads well, he makes smart decisions, he’s an accurate passer, and he can even hustle for a first down with his legs on occasion.  He didn’t go undrafted because Wisconsin elevated his statistics.  He went undrafted because he was an average athlete with a below average arm- a guy who stood 6’2″ and tipped the scales at just over 200 pounds.  But more importantly than any of those things, Tolzien had sloppy throwing mechanics and terrible footwork.  He was Robert Griffin without all the incredible natural gifts.  Players like that tend to go undrafted no matter how good their natural abilities may be.

Other than size, Wilson is vastly superior to Tolzien in every way, which I think says a lot since Tolzien really was a pretty good college quarterback.  Wisconsin is a great offense for a quarterback to play for, but what it isn’t is a gimmick based offense.  Tolzien and Wilson earned every bit of their 72% completion rates.  They took most of their snaps under center, they threw to all areas of the field, and they routinely progressed through multiple reads before finding and targeting an open receiver.   It wasn’t a case like Oregon or Baylor where their scheme was designed to exploit college level athletes.  It wasn’t an offense like TCU or Arizona that lives off of one-read plays or bubble screens.  It wasn’t an offense that spread defenses out with constant four or five receiver sets like Oklahoma.  Wisconsin’s is a legit offense that requires quality quarterback play to succeed.

Wisconsin has had some solid weapons the last couple years, but nothing great.  Lance Kendricks was a 2nd round tight end (who left for the NFL before Wilson arrived).  Nick Toon was a 4th round receiver.  Jared Abbrederis will probably be a mid round receiver in a future draft.  Both Toon and Abbrederis saw their production shoot through the roof when Wilson replaced Tolzien in 2011.

What Wisconsin does have is a pretty good offensive line and a phenomenal running game.  That helps sell the play action and keeps the quarterback’s pass attempt totals low and increasingly opportunistic.  Part of the reason Keith Price was so productive in 2011 for the Washington Huskies was because he completely bought into the philosophy of using the pass to set up the run.  It’s essentially the same idea at Wisconsin, but with a stronger foundation in place.  Did a good offensive line and strong running game boost Russell Wilson?  Absolutely.  But the exact same thing could be said for Andrew Luck and Matt Barkley.  Put Wilson on USC or Stanford last year and you would probably see similar production.

The bottom line is that Wilson will not produce in the NFL like he did at Wisconsin, just like Andrew Luck won’t produce for the Colts quite like he did for the Cardinal.  The real Russell Wilson is probably somewhere between his NC State and Wisconsin performances.  Where he fits on that spectrum is anyone’s guess, but I tend to lean towards the Wisconsin side, if only because the Seahawks philosophy of building around the run and the offensive line is very similar to what the Badgers did, even if the literal playbook verbage more closely resembles NC State.

Pocket paranoia?

Overall I would grade Wilson’s pocket presence and elusiveness as well above average, though there are moments when he seems to react to pressure a bit earlier than he needs to.  Wilson has no love for the pocket and almost seems to be forcing himself to stay between the tackles against his personal wishes at times.  Wilson also has a habit of escaping out of the back door instead of stepping into the pocket.  Wilson usually makes it work, but it’s the kind of habit that will backfire into drive killing 20 yard sacks in the NFL on occasion.

Forget about snap throws and three step drops.

Russell Wilson requires two things to overcome his height disadvantage:  time and distance.  He needs time because linemen begin every play clustered together but spread apart as the play develops.  This is where throwing windows come from, and they don’t really exist in the first second or two of a play.  Wilson needs distance because distance helps him see over the line and gives him more options for navigating through his throwing windows.  A quick pass or short dropback affords Wilson neither of those things, so it shouldn’t be surprising that Wilson took about as many quick passes last season as Darron Thomas had snaps under center.

Thankfully, the Seahawks run an offense that utilizes developing routes, play action, and bootlegs- much like Wisconsin’s offense did.  As such, I don’t see this as being much of a sacrifice, so long as Seattle’s pass protection can avoid embarrassing themselves.  And if the second half of last season is any indication, things will probably hold up just fine.

Final thoughts:

We all know what Wilson does well at.  It’s finding out what he doesn’t do well that has required all the work.  Height is a flaw, but it is just one flaw among many that a quarterback could have.  Then again, maybe a word like “flaw” is the wrong word to use.  Perhaps “quirk” might work better.  I say that because Wilson is not a flawed quarterback but a unique one.

People tend to fear things they don’t understand, and that goes double for NFL general managers.  Fear and lack of understanding was the real reason that Drew Brees was not a first round pick, and it’s the same reason why Russell Wilson was not selected in the first two rounds.  A handful of teams had the insight to see past Wilson’s faux height problem, and the Seahawks won the lottery for his services by committing on him the earliest.  Wilson’s name was called at the 75th pick, and in a couple of war rooms somewhere two other general managers snapped the pencil they were holding in half when they heard it.  There is a reason why Pete Carroll and John Schneider reacted the way they did when making that pick.  They knew.  After the draft they talked about how it would have hurt to walk out of this draft without Irvin and Wilson.  From what we’ve learned since the draft, it sounds like a few other teams felt that way too.

Wilson will never post a 33/4 TD/INT ratio in the NFL or complete 72% of his passes.  He might find it harder to run from trouble.  He’ll have limitations on his game and will require a coach that is willing to work around them.  Luckily for Wilson, he’s going to exactly the right kind of team, the kind of team that doesn’t need him to post MVP numbers to win championships.  He’s going to the kind of team that can protect him and support him with the running game like Wisconsin did.  He’s going to the kind of team that doesn’t live off of quick plays.  But most importantly, he’s going to a team coached by Pete Carroll, who more than just about any coach lives by the philosophy of putting unique talents in position to succeed and building an offense with the idea of making life as easy as possible for the quarterback instead of asking for a messianic franchise quarterback to lean on.

Russell Wilson is in a really good situation, which means we are too as Seahawks fans.  Mel Kiper is right.  If Wilson can’t make this work, then maybe no quarterback under six feet can.

This tape comes from 2010, Irvin’s first year at West Virginia where he was predominantly used as an impact pass rusher on third downs. It shows in the snap count – Irvin featured in just 15 defensive snaps, ten of which were on third down. He took just three snaps on first and second down. Yet despite this limited work-load, he had three sacks and three quarterback hits.

First down snaps: 2

Second down snaps: 1

Third down snaps: 10

Fourth down snaps: 2

In 2011 Irvin took 43 snaps against Pittsburgh, 30 against Louisville and 27 against Clemson. He more or less doubled his game-time in comparison to 2011. Almost certainly due to the scheme, Irvin was more comfortable as an impact player at West Virginia. He had 14 sacks in 2010 with 15-snap games. After taking on a larger role at the start of 2011, he managed just one sack in his first five outings. When WVU scaled back his snaps in the second half of the season, he recorded 7.5 sacks in his last five games for the Mountaineers. There’s some consistency between work-load and snap count.

We’ve spent a lot of time on this blog talking about the 3-3-5 and how it didn’t suit Bruce. Pete Carroll has described him as the ‘ideal’ LEO pass rusher, and it’ll be intriguing to see how he adapts into that role as a full-time starter in the future. With Chris Clemons likely to remain the every-down LEO for at least 2012, once again we’ll get a chance to compare Irvin as an impact player and a starter. Even if he never truly translates to a full-time starter, if he can make three sacks in 15 snaps as a pro, nobody will be calling him a bust.

Among the 15 snaps tallied above, Irvin faced a double team six times from two offensive lineman. On one futher snap he had to deal with the running back blocking down to support the right tackle. He got his sacks on 1st and 10, 3rd and 7 and 3rd and 18. If the Seahawks sneak Irvin into the game on third downs, it’s going to be very difficult not to keep the tight end blocking, forcing teams to either take a receiver off the field or stay in max-protect. It won’t always be in the stat-column where #51 had an impact.

The first sack is at 1:58 on the video. Irvin lines up on the right side of the now infamous 3-3-5, with the two other defensive lineman positioned to the extreme left. First of all the blocking is abysmal on this play – despite the fact the left tackle and guard only have to monitor Irvin (there isn’t even a blitzing linebacker) it’s a complete mystery how he’s managed to penetrate inside. He engages the tackle, disengages with too much ease (did the tackle expect inside support from the guard?) and hammers the quarterback to end the first half. Fair play to Irvin for capitalizing on an opportunity, but this was a gift.

Irvin gets his second sack at 3:40, this time lining up on the left side again in a three-man front. He just flat out beats the right tackle for speed off the edge, leans around the corner and gets to the quarterback. This is the type of explosive edge speed the Seahawks are looking for and against sluggish right tackles and tight ends, Irvin should have a field day even in the NFL.

The final sack comes at 4:30. Again, I have no idea what the left tackle and guard are doing here. The tackle is left on an island with Irvin, who just dips inside and sprints past him like he’s not there. Where’s the guard? The most impressive part of this play is the leap at full stretch to get a fingertip to the quarterback’s shoe-laces to take him down. Great execution, again making the most of bad line play to make a maximum impact.

Even when Irvin was blocked out of a play, the tendency to be double teamed created opportunities for others. Teams aren’t going to be able to zone-in on Clemons off the edge with Irvin in the team, and it works the other way too. If the Seahawks can get any kind of impact from Jason Jones as an interior rusher, the defense (and team in general) will receive a substantial upgrade. Irvin will have an impact next year playing around 50-60% of snaps. The acid test will be how he copes as the eventual LEO starter, but it’s a role that suits him a lot better than the 3-3-5.

I actually think he made the right decision to return to school. He needs polish, he needs time on the field. Lotulelei is far from the finished article as both a pass rusher and a run defender, but he’s a guy to keep an eye on in the fall.