Final notes & Seahawks tier list

April 25th, 2019 | Written by Rob Staton

A prediction on what will happen over the next three days

The Seahawks will trade down multiple times. They might trade both #21 and #29. The key to a successful draft this year is to get what you can in rounds 2-3. That’s the strong area of this class with the best value. Can they pick 4-5 times on day two? That’s the way to control this draft.

The Seahawks should get some good offers

Baltimore at #22 need O-line and receiver help. So do many of the teams in the 20’s and 30’s. The Packers at #30 need weapons and have been linked to the quarterbacks. Other teams will want to secure the fifth year option at the end of round one. The Seahawks couldn’t be better placed to receive trade interest.

They will get their guys

They always do. Last year they had their pick of the running backs and took a player at #27 who most expected to be solidly in round two. Forget the consensus. Focus on what they look for in players and individuals. Don’t be surprised if, after the first two days of the draft, Seattle ignores the big names, moves around and then takes players who simply ‘fit’.

What do I want to happen?

Defense, defense, defense.

I can live without a high pick at receiver and the eternal complaining that will happen when he doesn’t get enough targets. In 2018 they re-established their identity. They ran the ball, used play-action and wanted to keep things tight.

They also need to play great defense for this work. So build up the unit. Get more speed. Defend the run better. Rush the passer. Get some playmakers. This is a strong defensive draft so focus on the defense.

Will the Seahawks take a defensive back early?

Practically every mock I’ve read in the last 24 hours has the Seahawks taking a DB with one of their first two picks. See for yourself:

Lonnie Johnson at #29
Greedy Williams at #21
Byron Murphy at #29
Johnathan Abram at #29
Justin Layne at #29

We’ve seen this in the past and often it’s people outside of the Seahawks bubble not really understanding that Carroll and Schneider prefer to draft defensive backs later.

That said, there have been a few whispers that the Seahawks might buck a trend. Brock Huard mused a few weeks ago that this ‘could’ be the year they think about a cornerback early. Meanwhile, Eric Galko connected the Seahawks to interest in Byron Murphy not so long ago and he continued to make that link in his final mock draft.

The tier list

I’ve been really strict with this. I didn’t want to just list half the draft and not provide any real value.

Tier one

These are the players I think they might consider at #21 if they last that far.

Rashan Gary (DE, Michigan)
Montez Sweat (EDGE, Mississippi State)
Brian Burns (EDGE, Florida State)

I’ve only listed three names. I just don’t see many options that would dissuade them from moving back. Christian Wilkins and Dexter Lawrence will be long gone. I’m still not sold on them spending a first round pick on an injury redshirt like Jeffery Simmons. Supposedly there are some medical concerns about Clelin Ferrell. If these three names are off the board at #21 — it’s probably time to move down.

Why these three? Gary is a complete base-end with a sensational physical profile. Sweat’s 4.41 doesn’t get enough attention and his size/length is off the charts. Burns will always be a concern vs the run and his size is a question mark but his speed and pass rush percentage could be intriguing.

Tier two

These are the players I think they might consider at #29 or after trading back into the early second round.

N’Keal Harry (WR, Arizona State)
Terry McLaurin (WR, Ohio State)
Parris Campbell (WR, Ohio State)
Darnell Savage (S, Maryland)
Jaylon Ferguson (DE, Louisiana Tech)
L.J. Collier (DE, TCU)
Byron Murphy (CB, Washington)

These three receivers all fit based on athletic profile, maturity and a lack of ego. The Seahawks offense isn’t a high-target offense. It’s about maxing out your opportunities, being willing to block and function as a unit. These three are capable of doing that.

Darnell Savage is listed because 4.36 speed is 4.36 speed. You can’t coach that. It also helps he jumped a 39.5 inch vertical. That’s a special athletic profile that Carroll might want to get his hands on.

Jaylon Ferguson could be a base-end alternative to Rashan Gary. A lot has been said about Ferguson’s pro-day. Here’s a reminder that not everyone thought it was a disaster. L.J. Collier is one of my favourite players in the draft. I wish he tested better but here’s the facts — he’s a bad ass who wins with power, hand-use, speed, stunts and setting up blockers. Both he and Ferguson excelled in pressure percentage.

I added Byron Murphy because I think it should at least be a consideration that the Seahawks might want the best cornerback in the draft to play as a nickel hybrid.

Tier three

In my mock yesterday I had the Seahawks moving from #29 to #41 in a trade with the Broncos. Here are some of the prospects I think they might consider in that range or later.

Ben Banogu (EDGE, TCU)
Trysten Hill (DT, UCF)
Jerry Tillery (DT, Notre Dame)
Chase Winovich (EDGE, Michigan)
Juan Thornhill (S, Virginia)
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (S, Florida)
Lonnie Johnson (CB, Kentucky)
Sean Bunting (CB, Central Michigan)
Justin Layne (CB, Michigan State)
Isaiah Johnson (CB, Houston)
Dawson Knox (TE, Ole Miss)
Oshane Ximines (EDGE, Old Dominion)

Ben Banogu is more athlete than football player and he’ll need major work to develop into an effective NFL pass rusher. However, he has the kind of profile they want and they’ve never been afraid to coach up traits. Trysten Hill and Jerry Tillery are both excellent athletes.

Juan Thornhill is a bit overrated to me. You’ve got to love the six interceptions and his fantastic combine. His tape was still a bit underwhelming. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson plays with a spark. He had 9.5 TFL’s from the nickel position in 2018 and he competes to shed blocks and make plays.

Chase Winovich is one of the hardest players to project this year. His passion for the game is unmatched. He ran an incredible short shuttle of 4.11, ran an elite 1.5 10-yard split and a 4.59 forty. His pressure percentage is excellent. Yet he had a mediocre broad jump and he lacks ideal length. For all of these reasons I think he’s best suited to a pure 3-4 scheme playing in space.

I’m intrigued by the sheer numbers of ‘Seahawks style’ cornerbacks in this draft. The four names listed here are all expected to go in rounds 2-3. They’re all long, physical and explosive. Anyone who’s spent any time following the Carroll Seahawks knows they don’t draft cornerbacks early. However — we’re talking about four quality corners here. They won’t last. It needs to be seen to be believed but I’m putting their names on the list just in case.

Dawson Knox has been steadily rising this off-season. Why is he a fit for the Seahawks? He blocks, he never complained about a lack of targets at Ole Miss and he ran a sub-7.10 three cone (which seemingly matters in Seattle).

Oshane Ximines had the second best pass rush percentage in college football (24.5%) in 2018. He’s a high character, passionate football player who could take a physical step forward in a pro-setup. If they don’t get an EDGE early and others leave the board quickly, he could be an alternative.

Tomorrow I’ll publish a new tier list based on the prospects still available looking at day two possibilities.

We’re planning to record a podcast after the first round but if this doesn’t happen — I’ll seriously consider hosting a Google Hangout to offer some further thoughts.

I’ll also be live blogging throughout the first round and I hope you’ll join in with your comments.

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104 Responses to “Final notes & Seahawks tier list”

  1. Kerren Smith says:

    Thanks Rob your the best my dark horse guess from petes blues clues Justin Layne will be a day 2 pick

  2. jujus says:

    watch us pick knox #1

    ROB WITH THE CALL OUT OF NOWHERE

  3. Trevor says:

    Thanks again Rob for an amazing pre-draft season. You truly are the best at this!

    Really looking forward to the live blog and your comments throughout the night. They should have you on with the 710 ESPN crew.

    • Rob Staton says:

      Would love to be part of a broadcast one day.

      • Ben Ft. Worth says:

        If anyone deserves it, it’s you buddy! You’ve done so much for our fanbase. So glad to have you on our side!

      • Cameron Cole says:

        I call in to Brock & Salk every once in a while (maybe once every couple of months), and majority of my takes I end up citing your work for support (and even on some of my texts in). Hope it helps leads to some name recognition down the road, would love to see your influence as a Seahawks draft expert expand!

    • Barry says:

      Speaking of 710. They are all on together sans John Clayton. Something Brock just said has made me wonder if Gary is a option in Rnd 1. Something that shows up on film and as Brock said entitlement.
      Speculatively talking;
      It could be the FO didn’t feel they couldn’t pay Frank because they are trying to get the D that ranked in the mid tires the last two years back to where it needs to be to compete for a SB. Looking at the Pats as a example they often make the same kind of hard decision. With that frame of mind would PC and JS turn around and draft a guy in the first round who they knew, baring a large turn around in the maturity department knowing they won’t keep him to contract #2?

  4. Lewis says:

    Rob, please if you can, change the order for comments of the liveblog so the newest are at the top.

  5. JohnH says:

    Thanks for all the work Rob, really great coverage!

    Will you be starting a new post for the live blog during the draft?

  6. mister bunny says:

    Thanks again for another year of fantastic draft insight and preparation.
    You’re the best. It’s almost here — GO HAWKS!

  7. Justagamer602 says:

    You have gone above and beyond the call of duty for this draft and all of the Wilson/Clark contract situations. I tell all of my Seahawk friends about this site. Thank you Rob for all of the time and effort you put into this blog. You really make me a much more intelligent Seahawk fan! Can’t wait to read all of the post draft info!

  8. charlietheunicorn says:

    Fingertips…. next PC clue…. makes me think WR

  9. Volume12 says:

    Remember guys, Seattle might not find or hit on instant impact players. Growing pains. The guys they took last year will be counted on probably more expect for 2-3 guys. As a follower of the draft for 20+ years I was always taught to try and get 1-2 year 1 starters on each side of the ball.

    Only 47 rookies played more than 600 snaps last year. That’s less than 2 per each team.

    To make a long story short, let’s not over react.

  10. charlietheunicorn says:

    Breaking: NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes will be this year’s Madden cover athlete.

  11. GerryG says:

    Hope you got a nap in this evening/afternoon mate!

    Thanks

  12. charlietheunicorn says:

    I’ll let Rob handle the latest clue for PC

    You make me feel like “a natural woman” by Aretha Frankin

  13. charlietheunicorn says:

    I’m secretly wanting the Cardinals to mess up the top pick and …. cause this draft to go sideways.

    • Ben Ft. Worth says:

      Wouldn’t that be fantastic. Should they take Kyler Murray, could they then hold him for a King’s ransom for extra picks, or just wait for the best deal possible on Rosen?

  14. CanuckBrad says:

    This is awesome. Enjoy the draft Rob. Spectacular coverage as always!

  15. Darnell says:

    I’d add Risner, McGary and Ferrell to that list. Smart, tough, reliable. Long-term answers at positions of need.

    • Rob Staton says:

      Ferrell has medical concerns apparently.

      Right tackle isn’t a long term need. They have three tackles on the roster who could be the future there.

  16. GauxGaux says:

    Rob’s fingerprints are all over this… go hawks!

    1. Clelin Ferrell
    2. Darnell Savage
    3. Trysten Hill
    3. D’Andre Walker
    4. Gary Jennings
    4. Marquise Blair
    5. Foster Moreau
    UDFA – Alec Ingold
    UDFA – Stephen Denmark

    (hopefully, we can pick up solid draft capital by trading back)

    • Ben Ft. Worth says:

      That’s how I was made to look like a genius at my draft party when we picked Frank Clark. I got so excited reading about him and studying Seahawksdraftblog, that I put him #1 on my big board in Rd 2. I throw the biggest draft parties which are mainly full of Cowboys fans, but they were impressed at how I got MY guy. I still have the HUGE posterboard my wife bought at Hobby Lobby to make my big board saved!!!

    • Dale Roberts says:

      I’d be excited about that draft except for Blair. As much as I like Ferrell I’d prefer LJ Collier and the extra draft capital we could get by moving down from 21.

      • Ben Ft. Worth says:

        Word. I would too. But if it’s either or, Ferrell, no-brainer. And that’s coming from a guy who lives 2 miles from TCU stadium. I like the Frogs, but LOVE MY SEAHAWKS and LSU boys more!

    • Eli says:

      Keep plugging Denmark! Glad to see his name getting some traction I think there’s some potential there.

  17. David Ashton says:

    Woooooo! Draft day! How excited are y’all!?!

    • KD says:

      Got beer. Got guac. Got chips.

      i’m ready.

      • charlietheunicorn says:

        Now, that is living right there. Debating on grabbing a pizza and beer…. and settle if for the draft.

        • Ben Ft. Worth says:

          Pizza Hut is on the way! Almost done with my Hot Wings!! Judt figured out how to use “dual screen” mode on my Galaxy S9+ for 710 ESPN & Seahawksdraftblog, with NFL Network on the big screen. Got my big board up, and so far fans of 8 different teams at my party represented, including a 49ers and Giants fan. Unfortunately no Arizona peeps here.

          • Volume12 says:

            Frozen pizza myself. What can I say? I’m a degenerate and it’s one of my favorite snacks.

            • Ben Ft. Worth says:

              Hey brother, it works! What are we having? Supreme? Meatlovers’? Geneeic pepperoni? Or my fave, Hawaiian?!

            • DC says:

              You’re only a degenerate if you keep it frozen to eat it. Now we’re talkin’!

  18. AlaskaHawk says:

    Rob, you have done an incredible job of presenting information this year. I’m finally looking forward to watching the first round of the draft. Or at least tuning in late to see what the Seahawks traded down for.

    I couldn’t find an old comment about Dexter Lawrence. Do you think his drug tests will cause him to fall?

    • Rob Staton says:

      I don’t think the PED test will have any impact. Rightly or wrongly, these things crop up all the time.

      Lawrence is a top-15 pick. You just don’t get guys with his size, low body fat, 4.95 speed who can rush, play the run. Fantastic, rare talent.

  19. MJL says:

    I have no idea what player is going to what team in what round..but I have never felt more prepared for a draft. Thank you Rob!!

  20. RWIII says:

    Rob: As usual. Great work.

  21. SoCal12 says:

    Thanks for another season of awesome coverage Rob! We’re in the Endgame now.

    To kill time until the draft starts I want to play a game. Name one player, only one, that you think will be a Seahawk by the end of round 1. You can’t name anyone that’s already named though. If you name the correct player then you win… the right come back and brag about it!

    I’ll start:

    Clelin Ferrell

  22. Volume12 says:

    Playing piano is a hobby of Chase Winovich.

    • Ben Ft. Worth says:

      Ooooooohhhh!!!! I’m thinking more and more Chase Winovich tomorrow!!! Calling it!!! Chase is gonna be a hawk! Someone write that down!

    • KD says:

      for some reason, i can picture him playing Gwyn’s theme from Dark Souls.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AB6sOhQan9Y

    • Rob Staton says:

      I genuinely think with half of these things Pete is sat laughing his head off at Ben Malcomson reads out the replies… and the songs don’t have any real meaning.

      • Volume12 says:

        They probably don’t. He’s just trolling us all.

      • KD says:

        The clues are always very cryptic, but I almost got it the year the Hawks drafted Carpenter. His first clue that year was “Hey-Ya”, and he posted two different version, one from Outkast and the other from some other group stating that one version was real, and the other was a fake clue. I guessed that the difference would be the home town of each group, and Outkast is from Atlanta. Carpenter and another OLineman are from Atlanta, but i guessed the other guy.

        I think the clues are real, but I can’t be bothered deciphering them.

  23. BobbyK says:

    I am going to say their biggest need is DT, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll make DT their first pick but I don’t believe the early part of the third round will go by without the Seahawks having waited to take a DT.

    Dare I say they have two third-round picks from the past two years competing at the 5-tech, which includes Green who really had me high on him last year until an ankle injury. I think they like what the have at LDE. Both young and cheap, too. Perhaps taking over for Clark in some capacity may be Martin, who I know for a fact that one organization likes. Former student of mine is an NFL scout and loves him.

    While Reed and Ford may be good DTs (Reed more than good), there’s absolutely nothing behind them. I see a DT as a bigger need than DE but the strength of the draft for where they’re currently picking will probably be with DE as BPA.

    DB or WR from there…

    That’s it… if they can end up with four picks in the first three rounds, I’m hoping for two DL, an Ohio State WR, and a DB.

    Seems like every year I overthink the obvious and DT is the biggest need, imo. So will they address it tonight? Tricky because there will probably be a better DE or DB available at the time. Can’t wait to find out… but cautiously guarded, because I actually hope they only end up with one or zero picks tonight.

    • Rob Staton says:

      I don’t think they’re after a five technique. I think they need a Michael Bennett. Someone who can rush the edge effectively with size. They really wanted Dion Jordan to work out but he didn’t. They’ve never replaced Bennett. They need to. Naz Jones might not make the cut next year after being anonymous as a sophomore and Rasheem Green has some big steps to take before any faith is invested there.

      I keep coming back to this — Bennett, Avril, Clemons (and then Clark). I just cannot fathom they’re going to go from that to thinking this team, in it’s current form, is one EDGE away from being fine. Especially after dealing Clark.

      • Ben Ft. Worth says:

        After the draft, someone is gonna have to explain to me the differences between 5, 3, & 1 techniques. I get that they play different positions on the line and I think, are different sizes, but my sport was baseball growing up. So I’m lost when it comes to X’s and O’s with football.

        • Hoberk Unce says:

          A 1 tech DT lines up to one side of the Center, 3 tech DT on the outside shoulder of an OG, and 5 tech is a DE lining up on the outside shoulder of an OT. In 4-3 fronts one DT is the 1 tech and the other is the 3 tech on the other side of center. 1 tech usually tries to take double teams, so needs to be more or less unmovable against C and OG tandems, while the 3 tech is more responsible for beating OG blocks in pass rush situations. 5 techs usually attack the QB as an edge rusher around/through the OT.

  24. Volume12 says:

    ‘Can’t help myself’ The Four tops.

    RB or DB at the top of round 4?

  25. Aaron says:

    I hope they get 8-9 picks and use 5-6 on defense. Like you said Rob, that unit needs depth and speed. On offense the biggest needs are WR, TE, and FB. Those guys can be had later on day two or three. Trade down, pick in the meat of the draft (35-60ish), and get OKGs. So excited for tonight and the weekend.

  26. Duceyq says:

    Love all your lists Rob! Greatly appreciate all the work you do.

    My mock or master list of 17. I think Seattle will pick 8 times in this year draft. They’ll trade back and possibly trade one of there 12 picks from next year to get to 8. Normal I do double the amount for the amount of picks I think Seattle will have. I added an extra. No order.

    Jerry Tillery, DT, ND
    Rashan Gary, DE, Mich
    Jeffery Simmons, DL, Miss St.
    Trysten Hill, DT, Cent FL
    Debo Samuels, WR, SC
    DK Metcalf, WR, Ole Miss
    Darnell Savage, S, MD
    Marvell Tell, S/CB, USC
    Drew Sample, TE, WA
    J.J. ARCEGA-WHITESIDE, WR, Stan
    TERRY MCLAURIN, WR, Ohio St.
    STANLEY MORGAN, WR, Neb
    CHRISTIAN MILLER, Edge, AL
    Justin Hollins LB- Ore
    CONNOR MCGOVERN, OG, Penn St.
    Foster Moreau TE, LSU
    Devine Ozigbo, RB- Neb

  27. KD says:

    Not that I put much stock in Walter Cherepinski’s pick grades, but it will be amusing to see who gets the first MILLEN grade 😀

    • Rob Staton says:

      I like Walter. The only person from the ‘media’ who bother to RT our articles. Good man Walter!

      • KD says:

        I agree. I really enjoy his content and his mocks are quite good, but he does get a bit overly excited at some picks, siginings and trades.

    • Madmark says:

      I use Walts to see draft positions. He miss on a few that robs talks about but for most part 70% of the position in the right rounds. I think he’s wrong on TYsten Hill going at 90 when rob says 40-60 range is a perfect example

  28. charlietheunicorn says:

    “I can’t help myself”

    Pass rusher

  29. Rob Staton says:

    Quick reminder to anyone on here.

    No tipping picks please.

  30. Dale Roberts says:

    I’m almost as excited for the UDFA’s. PC/JS have promised they’ll be even more active than usual which is saying something in their case.

    • Hawktalker#1 says:

      That by itself is going to be very very exciting for us.

      Can you imagine getting three or four guys having Puna Ford’s impact or above?

      Sweet Pumpkin Pie

  31. Madmark says:

    Its kindia cool to watch the bottom of the screen on TV going by with the draft pick and Seattle actually has 2 picks. Have not seen that in a long time.

    • Hawktalker#1 says:

      +12

      I was on a local sports radio program yesterday acting as the GM for the Seahawks and it was a ton of fun fbeing able to make two picks in the first round for the Hawks. To be honest, I was seriously annoyed because Gary was taken at number 17. That is just not not not not not going to happen in the real draft!! (Doing A little subliminal broadcasting to all the other team’s real GM’s out there)

  32. charlietheunicorn says:

    tears of a clown, when you are mine

  33. Huggie Hawk says:

    Thank you Rob, and all of the blog contributors, for all of the excellent hot-take-free draft and Hawk analysis. Here we go!

  34. Heliopause says:

    Hey gang, I was doing tequila shots with Pete Carroll last night and he let slip what the ‘Hawks are planning today. Here are some clues:

    First, the Rolling Stones
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5IvxpNTNmzs

    Next, The Fifth Dimension
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HfxqQmWtGNM

    Finally, one of the great vocal stylists of the 20th Century, Gabe Kaplan
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOFd74VnHco

  35. WALL UP says:

    1. (Trade w/ OAK) 21 for [(24) 1st Rd & (106) 4th Rd] + 22 pts
    2. (Trade w/ NYG) 29 for [(37) 2nd Rd & (108) 4th Rd & 5th Rd (143)] + 2.8 pts

    This is with the premise that Sweat, Gary and Burns are gone.

    1. T(24) Dexter Lawrence DT (Jr.) 34 3/4 2. T(37) Jaylon Ferguson DE (Sr.) 34 1/2 3. (92) D’andre Walker OLB/DE (rSr.) 34 3/8 4.T(106) Terry McLaurin WR (rSr.) 4.T(108) Renell Wren DT (Sr.) 33 7/8 4. (124) Isaiah Johnson CB (rSr.) 33 5.T(143) B.J. Autry OG (Sr.) 35 1/4 5. (159) Preston Williams WR (rJr.) 33

  36. KD says:

    Fact: Guac is always better home made and with a margarita on the rocks

  37. charlietheunicorn says:

    Draft will be in Vegas in 2020

    :O

    BOOKIT DANO, TIME TO GO

  38. Ben Ft. Worth says:

    We good brother! Today is all about excitement and happiness!! As Ric Foair said it best, “WOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!”

  39. […] Earlier today I posted my tier lists for the early picks and listed L.J. Collier among the top targets. Here’s what I wrote in the blurb: […]

  40. Hawkfin says:

    Great write up, I love checking in here.

    I like the moves and the Collier pick. BUT, now please land Metcalf/WR. I think he’s a J. Jones type WR. I was disappointed to read about him being a “1 trick pony” I don’t agree. He’s a number one WR. I think we should have took him at 30 probably, but he’s still available.
    I also like Greedy Williams/CB.
    But, Metcalf is who I would love to land in the 2nd round.
    My view:
    -He would give us great size/redzone (Graham effect could still hit us)
    -Great speed and a true deep threat – Wilson is one of the best deep ball throwers
    -He’s physically a monster, 6’4, etc. – He can over power corners and burn them.
    -Baldwin is running low on fuel, Lockett has had inj. too. We need a WR pretty bad. One with size and who can separate.
    -He just had a article about him, where he states “just getting to the NFL is not good enough”.
    I see a #1 WR here! Stud type. Calvin Johsnon / J. Jones type.

    GO HAWKS!

    • Rob Staton says:

      If he was a #1 receiver he’d be off the board.

      He runs go-routes. That’s it.

      There’s value in his size/speed but he’s not a good receiver. He’s a freakish athlete.

  41. […] Here’s what I wrote about L.J. Collier before the draft: […]