Guest blogger – Ray Smith’s draft take

April 26th, 2012 | Written by Rob Staton

Seahawks 2012 Draft Day Trade. Shades of 2009/2010?

by Ray Smith

I’m already thinking about the 2013 draft, Matt Barkley and what could we possibly do to get there. I’m not forgetting the needs this year though, pass rush, linebacker and running back would be nice. But the draft is unpredictable so all I can do is roll my dice and hope they don’t turn up snake eyes. So here is what I would do, why I think it would work and how I would draft, with plans for this year while looking to the future.

Seattle trades #12 along with our 4th (106) to Miami for their 2nd (42) and 3rd (73) round pick and next years 1st. In the outdated draft trade chart Seattle’s pick would be worth 1282 points and Miami’s combined picks received would be worth 705 plus the value of next years 1st. With a difference of 577 points it would be a break even if Miami’s 2013 1st rounder were at 32 (590). Otherwise, it’s on they plus side for Seattle. Now don’t get me wrong, the difference needs versus draftable players every year makes the point system incomplete. For example, Seattle needs pass rush this year and there is a plethora of pass rushers in the first round this year. But what if they need offense next year and they are few and far between in 2013?

But none of that is the reason for this trade anyway. I’m sure everyone recognizes that this trade is strictly made in order to get as close as possible to the #1 overall pick in the 2013 draft. Which is why I propose this trade with Miami, because I believe their 2013 first round pick will be the first one off the board. Much like everyone has been talking about Jim Irsay and the Indianapolis Colts this year, Miami’s early pick will be the one that everyone will be talking about starting at the end of December, 2012. The pick that entitles it’s owner to 2013′s “Elite” QB.

There are plenty of teams to choose from when predicting 2012′s bottom dweller, and I’m sure many of you would choose someone different. But I chose Miami and my reasons are as follows.

1. Front Office, or the lack there-of. The Dolphin’s overall management has been mediocre at best since Bill Parcells left the fold and I sometimes wonder why it is he left.

Everything seemed to start downhill with the way they treated Tony Sparano, leaving him in the dark while pursuing Harbaugh then turn around and give him a pay raise. Their failed attempt to hire Jeff Fisher had to be disappointing for their fans as well as the players, but it probably came as no surprise to them. And I would think that the cloud surrounding the Miami organization this year was a consideration in Matt Flynn choosing Seattle over Miami. In addition, I’m certain, that the uncertainty was a major factor in Peyton Manning’s decision making process. That and the fact that they gave up 52 sacks in 2011.

2. I see the Dolphin offense taking a big step back this year with all the changes in coaching, player movement, retirement and a major system overhaul.

I would argue that their hiring of Joe Philbin over Mike McCoy was a huge mistake and wonder how much undue influence owner Stephen Ross’ exercised. I think Mike McCoy was the superior coach and has the track record to prove it. But maybe Miami’s brain trust was enamored with Green Bay’s success and thought that Philbin could replicate it South Beach. Not going to happen, not with their current dearth of talent.

Mike McCoy on the other hand, was on the Carolina Panthers coaching staff from 2000-2008 and was hired by Josh McDaniels in 2009 to serve as the Broncos offensive coordinator and quarterback coach. McCoy was instrumental in Kyle Orton having a career year in 2009 and midway through the 2011 season, converted the Broncos offense to a heavy (2632 yards) running game to fit Tim Tebow’s “style.” “Coach” McCoy would have been perfect for transitioning Miami from Sparano’s run oriented attack to the West Coast offense. And he would have maintained a level of success, and enthusiasm with the fans and players alike. Instead I see some major growing pains for this club this year and wonder if they can keep the interest of their fans while getting the players to buy in.

3. Desperation, the pressure is on from fans to win, and win now but does the GM have what he needs to succeed or is he on the hot seat?

From what I learned about Jeff Ireland, he looks like a very good GM. Ireland has a successful background in scouting and learned in Dallas, under Bill Parcells and Jerry Jones. Prior to that he worked as a scout for the Kansas City Chiefs so he definitely has the background. The only problem is the mess that he inherited and an owner that many Dolphin fans are unhappy with. There may not be an “I” in team, but there certainly need to be fans for one to exist. The Dolphins are a team stuck in the twilight and they need a real leader to put them on the path to success. But does Ireland have the security and control that he needs to make decisions for the long term? Or is he on the hot seat with an owner and coaching staff meddling in everything he does? Either way, he has his work cut out for him in the 2012 NFL Draft. The Miami Dolphins needs this year include Quarterback, Wide Receiver, Pass Rush and Right Tackle to name a few. By the way Jeff, good job getting two 3rds for Brandon Marshall. I’ll take one of those if you don’t mind.

Mr. Ireland’s job would be much easier if Miami had signed Drew Brees in 2006, the current state of the Dolphins might be a completely different story. So to add insult to injury, in 2010, Bill Parcells gave up 2 second rounders for Brandon Marshall and signed him to a 47.5 million dollar contract (24 Million guaranteed). Drew Brees could have really put up some numbers with Marshall in the stable. But between an injury prone Chad Pennington and an unproven Chad Henne, Brandon’s production took a major hit. So there’s a setback for the franchise that will have a ripple effect well after the 2010 and 2011 draft picks have gone. And the results lately have been average at best. In 2011 they got Mike Pouncey in the first round then took Daniel Thomas in the 2nd (they had to trade up from the 3rd) and Wide Receiver Edmond “Clyde Gates in the 3rd. Daniel rushed for 518 yards and Clyde caught 2 passes for 19 yards in 2011. Glad our FO doesn’t handle draft picks like that.

4. A new coaching staff doesn’t value old team members and has their own unreal fan expectations to deal with.

2012 brings a new head coach and offensive coordinator, which means major offensive overhaul. We have the same old QBs that have spent a couple of years in a different system. Matt Moore has been through 3, Dallas, Carolina, Sparano’s Miami. We have only one legitimate running back that may or may not remain healthy, no wide receivers to speak of, a 30 year old pass rusher whose production fell this year and a Pro Bowl left tackle. I think my argument for Miami having the number one pick in 2013 is on pretty solid ground.

And what about those older Dolphins who have a year left and no assurance that they will be back next year? They are most likely going to play for stats, play for that next contract, with another team. That doesn’t necessarily preclude them playing “for” their team, but it doesn’t guarantee they will either.

So your next question might be, “Why would Miami want to trade up for the #12 pick and trade away their 2013 1st round pick?” For starters, “New regimes require new quarterbacks.” We’ve seen it time and again, a new coach and/or GM comes in, and the old QB is out the door. And sometimes they literally are an “old” QB. I think part of the reason, besides age, is that a new coach brings in his system and doesn’t want to retrain the incumbent QB. With Mike Sherman coming in as Offensive Coordinator, it’s a safe bet they will be looking for Ryan Tannehill at #8. But hey, who’s he going to throw to? Clyde?

Another reason they would covet the #12 pick is Cincinnati’s success in taking a WR and QB with the first two picks. The NFL is a copycat league and if you’re a new coach, why not try to catch a little of that magic in a bottle? Two young guys coming in together and building a rapport that pays dividends all through the season? Why not? There’s nothing to lose, except your job, and with a Jim Mora type performance that could be as soon as, well, this year.

Add to that, new coaches are pressured to show early results, so why not sacrifice the future for right now? Hello Hugh Jackson! Josh McDaniels, Seattle Seahawks thank you, and Earl Thomas thanks you! So why not Miami? I’m sure Joe Philbin would be all for it and Jeff Ireland must be feeling the heat to produce this year. If the Dolphins keep struggling, he’ll probably be the next one out the door. Might as well go out with a bang! Take that Stephen Ross! No 2012 1st round soup for you!

2012 Picks after the trade dust settles:
Overall=Points, Team, Round

Miami:

12 = 1200 Seattle 1st to Miami
72 = 230 Miami 3rd
103 = 88 Miami 4th
106 = 82 Seattle 4th to Miami…

Seattle:

42 = 480 Miami 2nd to Seattle
43 = 470 Seattle 2nd
73 = 225 Miami 3rd to Seattle
75 = 215 Seattle 3rd…

2013 Seattle pick from Miami
xx = ??? Miami 2013 1st to Seattle

And now to my mock draft. If it weren’t for the availability of good second tier pass rush talent, I might have thought twice about this approach.
At 42 Seattle picks Vinny Curry DE Marshall. Good pass rush ability and good measurables.
At 43 Seattle picks Zach Brown LB North Carolina. On this I defer to Pete Carroll although I do like Lavonte David
At 73 Seattle picks Bruce Irvin West Virginia. Jared Crick and Cam Johnson are options too.
At 75 Seattle picks LaMichael James RB Oregon. I would have prefered to get one sooner such as Lamar Miller or Doug Martin but giving up #12 negates that option
At 181 Seattle picks Russell Wilson (if Pete isn’t sold on Portis) otherwise it’s Lamar Holmes OT Ole Miss
At 225 Seattle picks Brandon Bolden RB Mississippi 5′ 11″ 220# 4.66 – 40 yard dash, 38″ vertical, 9′ 11″ broad jump, 21 reps, 6.91 3-cone. Take a flyer on a running back with “good measurables.”

7 Responses to “Guest blogger – Ray Smith’s draft take”

  1. Saxon says:

    I have no problem with your underlying logic or the picks in your mock. The strength of this draft is clearly in the 2nd round and it would make some sense to trade out of the first and pick up ammunition for next year. However, my brother is a huge Dolphin fan and I have a little insight into that organizations thinking and I don’t believe they would make a deal like this. Ireland is certainly under a lot of pressure to produce after some very suspects decisions the last couple of years, but he is not a complete buffoon.

    They are obviously the 4th best team in their division right now. They know they will have a Top 3 draft pick next year. If they take Tannehill this year, which seems likely, they can trade that pick for a king’s ransom in 2013 , as the Rams did this year. If they miss on Tannehill they will have their choice of QBs next year. I just don’t see how getting Seattle’s #12 makes any sense for them, particularly when most talent evaluators don’t see a huge disparity in talent between the middle first and top second round…

  2. Ryan in Seattle says:

    Never happen. I think they have their sights set on Barkley just as much as we do.

  3. ivotuk says:

    Saxon, good points and I could be way off on what the trade values are but I went by the now outdated points chart. My main point is that I think it would be a good trade for Seattle and if they are looking at next year, I believe Miami is the best trade partner. My other thought was who would Miami covet enough to make that trade, and Floyd would seem to fit the bill. Other options that they need are a DE like Coples or Ingram, OL like DeCastro or Reiff, or even possibly Trent Richardson in the unlikely even he should fall that far.

  4. D says:

    Who are you and what have you done with Rob?

    Seriously, thanks for adding to the wealth!

  5. Ryan in Seattle says:

    This is also why I have a hunch the Dolphins may pass on Tannehill. Better to pull a Full Colt, bottom out completely, and aim high in 2013.

  6. AlexHawk says:

    Thanks great read Ray thanks for your take, and I have to say I would like that situation a lot because I have come to terms with the fact that we won’t draft a qb this year so if we can get a better qb prospect next year I would be all for that. Further it does allow us to pick up some pass rushing threats and pick up a speedy coverage linebacker that PC wants.

  7. Interesting article Ivo. I think a future 1st is probably the only trade that might interest Seattle at #12 right now, but it’s still worth investigating possible ways it could happen.