You’ve talked about in some places but if the hawks decide not to go QB at 5 and Anderson and Carter aren’t there either (I know this video is talking about the flaws in carters game), is there another player on either side of the ball you’d be comfortable taking, or is it QB or trade back in your mind? If so, how far back would you be willing to go and what are a few players you’d hope we pick in that range?
I don’t want to walk through the weeds of trading down at the moment but this isn’t a draft full of blue-chippers and I think you are duty bound to stick at #5 and pick from the pool of players I’ve discussed in recent articles. I see Tyree Wilson and Myles Murphy at #5 and I think that would be a reach on both counts
Increasingly clear that QB should be the move, can’t see a trade down happening. Honestly happy with any of the four QBs, like them all for different reasons, and would take any of them over Anderson or Carter.
I just did a quick look at a highlight reel of Jalen Carter on YouTube and I have a question: Has anyone seen Jalen Carter do a rip move?
When Alan Ali blew him up on TCUs only touchdown it was something I saw a lot of against Ohio State. The right guard got on his right shoulder and “horn” blocked him away from the action. Then the guard reset his base in between him and the ball carrier.
A quick look at the video and I saw his swim move and a slap move, but only to the left side of the line of scrimmage on the sagittal right of the tackle. If you do a “horn” block you take both of those things away. The only tool left in his kit is a bull rush then. I think he needs a rip move. Or, he might have a rotator cuff injury on his left shoulder if he only doing moves on one side.
IIRC one of the criticisms of Carter is that he doesn’t have great arm length. This might explain the lunging I am seeing that gets him off balance. As a former high school wrestler, I can tell you that when you have bad techniques you always work much harder. This might explain why he looked so gassed against Ohio State.
But I haven’t seen enough of him to know.
Thoughts?
Mr drucker in hooterville
Rob, while we’re at it: do you see Stetson Bennet as a decent flyer in late rounds? He idelivers.
The more game tape I watch, the less I like Jalen Carter and the more I like Saiki Ika. In fact, my biggest concern is that if Carter is there at #5 and we take him, we are unlikely to double dip at DT in the first 4 picks and Ika will be wrecking backfields for someone else.
Fight me
Peter
I won’t.
Seattle needs ika in a 3-4 in a bad way.
Peter
Go:
Qb if possible. Levis?
Van pran. At 20 or wherever the draft falls.
Round two:
Ika.
Keion white ( might be a freaky athlete. Big time upside)
That would be pretty salty. Levis or Richardson at #5 would be amazing.
Then Brian Branch with our native first, unless Bijan is somehow still sitting there.
2nd Round:
Van Pran
Saiki Ika
Zay Flowers if we miss out on one of the above.
Peter
That’ll work. For sure.
GoHawks5151
I had a comment in the same vein earlier today. I fear Stroud, Levis, Richardson and Andersen are gone and Carter is left. Too talented to pass up, but maybe has the biggest bust potential. Pete used to thrive motivating and getting the most from similar players. However this hasn’t happened lately. Also the 6 sacks in 2 years worries me. Finishing is a skill and going from disruption to sacks can be tough for some players. I’d love for a QB to be the pick
Thomas
I kind of trust Pete not to take Carter. I think the Malik McDowell pick still stings.
Honestly Rob, I wouldn’t take Carter at all based on what you have said. Maybe he’ll drop all the way to the 2nd round.
I’m still uncomfortable with Bryce Young too.
The “doomsday” scenario is that we can’t trade back at 5 and only Young or Carter are on the board. Maybe they take the Georgia center at that point. If you want to play Pete ball, establish the run.
Anyway, I don’t know what I’d do in that situation. I don’t want Young or Carter. And I kind of think you don’t want either Rob – not trying to knock you, you’ve just convinced me they are more likely to bust (in a literal sense) than thrive.
I’d take Stroud, Richardson, or Levis at 5. I’d take Andserson if he was available and those were off the board. After that, hope someone trades up for Young?
I hate these comparisons of Jalen Carter to Malik Mcdowell. Do you know what every male between the ages of 18-25 years of age has in common? They are farking stupid! I know because I was there.
Tell me something, would you have taken Jerry Jeudy before Henry Ruggs III? Because Jerry Jeudy has sucked for all of his career until his head coach got fired this year. Ruggs drove a Corvette into a Toyota Rav-4 at 156 MPH causing it to burst into flames and killing the driver with a blood alcohol level twice the Nevada state limit. But if this doesn’t happen, Derek Carr still has a job.
Geno Smith had “a few glasses of wine” and got pulled over doing 90 MPH on I-5. Malik McDowell was off-roading on an ATV while drinking (IIRC). Tell me, what is the difference? Stupid is stupid.
Then there is luck.
Dennis Erickson poisoned Warren Sapp and Randy Moss right before the draft. A lot of times these accusations of “character issues” are based on someone’s agenda or spite, just like Tom Cruise in the movie “All the Right Moves.”
All of those guys got screwed, but (spoiler alert) Tom Cruise got to have sex with Leia Thompson.
I will leave you with that pleasant thought.
All I see is 12s
To be fair, there’s red flags and there’s Malik McDowell. Malik McDowell did not have red flags. Malik McDowell had public service announcements talking about what a disaster he would probably be. Rob wrote an article about how if you look at the measurable‘s how wonderful he would be, but he interviewed so badly. His coach could not find anything nice to say about him. He physically gave up on his team field. Later on, we even found out that his mom had issues with his decision making. The reality is, the Seahawks ultimately should have spent the money they spent on Eddie Lacy and Joekel (when quite have covered the cost they could’ve scrape a few more million to make it happen) and found a way to sign Calais Campbell. Because that’s what they wanted.
Osprey
“Malik McDowell was off-roading on an ATV while drinking (IIRC).”
IIRC they did their best to bury the details and seal docs, but…the most likely scenario is that he crashed on the streets of Detroit. I believe the smoking gun was the salvage record on the abandoned ATV.
If you’re not aware, illegal use of ATVs and dirt bikes by urban youth has been an issue for going on a decade in eastern US cities. So not only bad judgement, but a strong indicator of gang ties as well.
Geno was 32 years old and drove drunk. That’s the biggest reason I hate him so bad. These young kids are stupid because we were all there but do does stupid like Geno? He’s 32. He drives drunk. He’s a free agent at the QB position. That takes a special kind of stupid.
Please give me Anthony Richardson. Every physical tool imaginable. Looks like he can navigate a pocket as well. If he does something stupid, he’s 21. I’ll give him a pass that I won’t give Mr. too stupid to write back when he’s a decade over. I’ve always thought QBS should have a certain set of rules than every other position.
BK26
Here is a reason why i like Richardson (DISCLAIMER IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH GUNS AND GUN CONTROL, NOT GETTING INTO THAT DEBATE): He doesn’t want the AR-15 nickname anymore because of all of the school shootings. Didn’t want any association or any causes to be a reminder of that.
That to me, is a kid that gets it. Understands where he can be and what he can be to kids. He could still be a kid and make mistakes, but I see some impressive character ground work.
And Jalen Carter is getting McDowell comparisons for lack of effort, conditioning, etc. Sometimes you are held at a higher standard and as an asset, you have a different value than a normal kid. There is being a kid, and then just having a little common sense.
Yes! Didn’t know that about Richardson and love him even more now!
Good point with Carter… if you’re a top 10 pick – you should be held to a higher standard. That shows who you are and what you value as an organization, too. It’s not like a Warren Sapp situation where he smoked some weed. I’m sure most players did and currently do. I don’t think that’s the character flags of someone who is flat out lazy.
Matt
Geno was drinking, was going 96 MPH, and told the cops they “had tiny d*cks” as a 31 year old. I’m glad that’s seen as a non-issue to you.
All I see is 12s
It does seem that Geno has gotten a pass for some very bad behavior. Do we know the status of his case? Was it deferred?
Matt, I never said that Geno’s behavior was a non-issue to me. I just said that I hate the comparisons of Jalen Carter to Malik McDowell and was trying to point out a double standard.
Jabroni-DC
Underclassmen have until Jan 16 to declare for the draft.
Stroud, throw your hat in the ring buddy.
MCOHawk
I would not be upset if they packaged both 1st round picks and moved up to #2 for a QB. Not too many teams have multiple 1s this year and for a depleted Houston team 3 first round picks this year could be enticing.
Big Boi
I’m convinced that it’s Stroud on his own level, then the other three, then everyone else. Might as well throw in next year’s one and get to #1 to get the best prospect. This is a once-in-a-career opportunity for JS.
JP
Of all the players that get mocked to Seattle, this is the one I absolutely dread right now. They HAVE to look hard at those QBs picking at 5.
Mark
Hi Rob,
Didn’t watch the game, but how did Avila do against the Georgia front? I know you were somewhat high on him as G prospect.
I would like to see our draft fall like this:
5. Richardson/Levis
20. Porter/Branch/Kancey
38. Kancey/Van Pran
54. Siaka
85. Avila
All I see is 12s
Ika is not only a guy you have to constantly double-team in the run game, but he provides a little bit of pass rush as well. I have a feeling that in 4 months time we will have to use the first of the second round picks if not the latter first round to get him.
JimQ
Kansey lined up with Ika at nose would be a great combination, there should be multiple gaps for Kansey to slide through (like a greased pig) with his quickness and natural leverage. A VERY ideal pairing IMO.
But the game got away from TCU so quickly it’s impossible really to get anything out of their performance
Crosljam
Had a thought about Geno’s drop of 2nd half of the season and wondered if there was anything like a rookie wall.
Yes he’s 32 but he’s had the last 7 years being a backup. There’s got to be a huge physical and mental difference between having to be ready if called and being the guy each week, especially when the run game and defence were struggling and he had to feel everything was on him.
On top of that 2 rookie tackles who probably did hit the wall and it might explain the drop off.
Still think we need a QB early and probably first up unless the draft isn’t kind first 4 picks, as keeping Geno might be a bit more money than we can afford
It’s possibly not even that, he might just have had a really nice hot streak
It can happen
What is more infrequent is a career journeyman at age 32 suddenly becoming a longer term franchise QB
Big Boi
I definitely thought it was a little cheap for Seahawks twitter to put out that Geno set the single season passing yardage record this year without noting that it as in 17 games. Still piling on Russ via a subtle subtweet.
The offense could not run the ball very much at all in the second half. The defense couldn’t stop anyone on the ground in the second half.
PFF just noted that Lucas and Cross have had a 51.7 pass block grade in the second half.
Listen, I know Geno isn’t some all-world franchise QB we should give $50 million to, but what happened to his second half is the exact same thing that has been happening to RW for years in Seattle.
Running backs out, the defense is awful, and he’s expected to make magic with a poor OL.
Let’s keep that in mind.
pdway
I’ve also been thinking a lot about this – i.e. the reasons behind the regression. Because the eye test over the first half of the season felt very legit – he made all the high-level throws you want, and a handful of elite ones – and after a couple games, none of it felt lucky.
In addition to the points you note above – it also felt like the easy scheme throws that were so available throughout the 1st half of the year, were just taken away (i’m thinking all those roll out throws to TE’s coming across, or receivers behind them, etc), and we didn’t have enough Plan B options. This is also something we’ve seen before on the Hawks, when the offense just seems to be out of ideas.
None of this explains away the really poor decision INT’s (or near INT’s) that increased over the 2nd half of the season. My only explanation there (and it’s not a great one), is that Geno morphed a bit from a QB taking what was there, to a QB trying to do too much. Either way – it’s those bad moments that convinced me that he can be the present, but not the long-term plan. I’d 100% re-sign him though, still don’t think the good play was a fluke.
Trevor
Great video Rob I think you summed up the situation perfectly!
Trevor
Last year because of Rob’s scouting Ane Lucas was my must have Hawks draft pick on day #2.
This year is is definitely Sedric Van Pran. He is a flat out stud that looks great in both pass blocking and the run game. The other great thing is that he has been practicing daily his entire college career against NFL caliber DTs ( Wyatt, Walker, Davis, Carter etc) so the transition should be much easier.
The Hawks have struggled at the C spot since the Max Unger trade and should draft Van Pran at 36 to lock down that position once and for all. Would even be ok with them taking him with that second 1st round pick.
Toughest scenario is qb needy team gets Chicago pick Cards take Anderson and you like Young but don’t think he’s durable enough and choice is Carter/Young
Do you think AZ would trade with us and what would moving two spots cost us (JJ chart says Den 2nd would do it might be worth it to guarantee a choice of Stroud, Levis, Richardson) and AZ still gets Anderson/Carter or opportunity to trade down again with qb needy team.
If he’s “iffy” enough for us to be saying we’d shy away from him, then why would any of the four teams ahead of us take him? We really need him to go in the top-4 to push one of the top-3 QBs down to us.
So unless we expect Bryce Young to go top-4 (which I just can’t see happening) we really need Carter to dominate between now and the draft.
My absolute worst fear is that come pick 5 we’re faced with a choice of Bryce Young and Jalen Carter. If Carter doesn’t excel pre-draft, I think that’s a distinct possibility.
GrittyHawk
Same reason someone like Jamarcus Russell can go #1. Teams, particularly those driven by desperation, can easily become enamored with a player’s raw talent and potential and overlook character concerns, or think they can fix their issues once they get to the NFL (fundamental attribution bias — “his coaches couldn’t get him to work hard but I bet WE can!”). I feel like this tendency also becomes amplified the further we get from the end of the CFB season and into the combine/pro days (recency bias), and the more the media spend their time hyping up a handful of players (confirmation bias). It can get even worse when there is a perceived scarcity at the position, or a guy with a flashy highlight reel gives you FOMO that you might have to live with missing on the next Aaron Donald.
tl;dr version — NFL GMs are prone to logical fallacies just like any of us.
Matt
Great post. Coaches have a lot of hubris. “I can fix him because I’m a superior coach.”
As a coach, we all do it. The real question is “what exactly are you trying to fix? And what is the direct source of the issue?”
The motivation one is usually a hand grenade with the pin-pulled, from my experience.
GrittyHawk
Why do you think Carter has such high grades from PFF? Full disclosure, I don’t subscribe and don’t really know how their grading works. It just seems odd to me that he would get a 90.1 pass rush grade for the season with such minimal real production. Does he have a lot of pressures or something that don’t show up on the stat sheet? Or is their grading system, as I suspect, a giant load of bull?
Matt
His snap count is limited. People point to his rate production as the selling point. It’s no different than pointing to a closer in baseball and saying “sure, he only pitches 1 inning but he would do the same over 9.”
There’s an odd assumption with Carter that despite his production and limited snap count; he’s somehow going to be better against better competition with a much higher snap count. The logic is…illogical.
Carter legitimately played very well after returning from injury and deserves the high grades
But the voiced concerns since then need to be heard
no frickin clue
I think the Carter-McDowell comparison is fair, and it was only five years ago, so you’d think Pete and John will recall that one fairly vividly.
McDowell’s pre-draft profile from 2017 on NFL.com mentioned these two negatives, among others: “Production doesn’t match up with the traits and the talent”, and “Scouts concerned about work ethic and leadership”. Working hard to maximize your talent – or not working hard and not doing that – is a CHOICE. There are going to be plenty of players in the talent pool who the scouts deem to be high character, non-stop motor, etc., who make the better choice. I’d rather focus on those guys.
In my day job, I have managed a lot of people over the years. I can work with under-performers to turn them around and get them where they need to be, but the one thing I cannot do is make an employee care about doing a good job. McDowell didn’t care enough. And I’m worried that neither does Carter.
Matt
This sums up my position as well. It’s very hard to make people care and give effort when their first instinct is the opposite.
Peter
Feels like we are looking at a fairly non descript bunch of dline players in a year where many of us are pining for dline.
Some people posit that a doomsday scenario is Carter or young like that’s that you have to take one or the other and no others.
I’d argue that is such a defeatist way to look at the draft. Personally I’d rather get a big fat “f” grade out of the gates but draft anyone at five that is a true difference maker. A team is not beholden to drafting a consensus top five player unless that player is in their top five just because some ad filled sites with no money or careers on the line says so.
Re: Carter, maybe a few others. I get a vibe from a lot of the more talked about dlinemen that they were the best athletes on their teams for some time and never had to have that fire to make themselves great.
Thomas
If every kid has red flags, they’d never be mentioned. It must be something beyond “he’s not ready to have a lot of money.”
Jachai Polite fell to round 3 and then flamed out of the league. We had him for a minute, but it never went anywhere.
And Geno’s drunk driving was bad. It didn’t sit well with me. He was in his 30s! I doubt he’s so good that we couldn’t replace him with someone like Jones, Carr, or even Lock next year as a bridge option if we get Richardson. But also, he hasn’t repeated his behavior, so let’s hope for his sake it stays that way.
But…innocent until proven guilty in Carter’s case. It’s wrong to rule him out on character at this point in the process. That’s fair. Who knows if someone’s agent isn’t pulling a shady trick? However, it’s weird that he gets sibgled out. They better turn over every rock or they could burn the pick. But beyond that, he doesn’t sound fit enough for number 5. It’s hard to be a game wrecker if you have to rest a bunch.
Matt
I think people are misinterpreting the “character concerns” deal and going to “he’s a bad person.” I think it’s been plainly hinted that the “issues” are related to work ethic.
You’re right – if we are assuming he’s a bad person based on generic statements, that’s bad.
However, I think it’s totally fair to speculate on work ethic concerns when it lines up with what happens on game day. These issues would’ve died a sudden death if he was playing 65% snaps and not looking gassed. However, we have low snap counts, limited production, and seeing a guy visibly out of shape partway through games. In this regard, the speculation is fair.
I generally agree with your comment, but thought context was important because I haven’t seen people making the case that he’s a terrible person. The concerns seem directly tied to “what type of work does he put in?”
This is my biggest concern with Carter. He will have to seriously commit to conditioning work in a way he’s never had to in his life in order to be on the field enough. If you’re picking in the Top 5, there’s no way you can risk having that player huffing oxygen on the sideline for the majority of the game.
Watching the title game, Bear Alexander jumped out in a big way. A true freshman who showed a motor and was crushing the pocket consistently. Too bad we’ll hae to wait a few years for a shot at that guy.
We’re just talking about concerns, which is fair, as we’d do about any player
Matt
Good video Rob. Here’s my biggest issue with the Carter situation…
The cult of Carter goes to YouTube and shows you the highlights and ask “how could you not want that? How could you think he’s not good?” They refuse to look at anything other than him dunking in a high school game, picking up the LSU QB.
He is good. He is very talented. He also disappears. He also, quite frankly, plays less than half a game. He clearly has conditioning issues.
“But he can get in shape – that’s not that hard.” Sure – I agree with that. The question they don’t ask themselves is “why isn’t he in shape now?” You’re going to give him 8 figures $ and *then* he will figure it out?
Forget football for minute – let’s look at basic human nature. Person A doesn’t do X. You now reward Person A with millions of dollars having not done X, in hopes that they start doing X. Why on earth would Person A *now* be motivated to do X?
People can laugh at that, but the biggest battle we all have is against our own nature. It’s like having a drug addled teenager who is failing school and you say, “I’m gonna buy the car you want – and then will you change your behavior?”
Jalen Carter can absolutely become an excellent NFL player. There’s no doubting that. He’s going to have to do things he’s never actually done or shown. That doesn’t mean it can’t happen, but with a top 5 pick – I’m willing to let someone else take the risk to find out.
I’ve coached for a long time; can’t tell you how many “man he’s talented and if he learns to work hard and be consistent – they will be great” have come through my ranks and guess what?…almost all of them continued to be the “what if – look at that potential” guys. “Yea but Matt, Pete Carroll is different and the ultimate motivator!” That’s great – is Pete going to live with Carter in the off-season? Why didn’t he do that with Malik McDowell?
Sorry for the long-winded post; you’re the only draft person that I’ve seen that actually has a smart and nuanced take on this situation. You’ve never said he’s bad. You’ve never proclaimed he’s a bust. You’ve simply raised valid concerns that far too many are not willing to look at.
Trevor
Great post Matt and I agree completely about Human Nature. At their core people are who they are. Sure people can improve themselves but rarely does paying someone millions and then expecting them to change work out well. If he is not in shape his draft year that speaks volumes IMO.
Matt
Thanks Trevor.
My coaching mentor is 75 now. It’s really interesting hear him talk about these types of players. His motto is “you better not hope a person is going to be the opposite of what they’ve shown themselves to be.”
Nothing profound, but it’s simplicity drives home an important message.
MaxInVan
Everyone brings up the Malik McDowell comparison but I don’t understand it. Malik McDowell never played a snap for Seattle. Not because he wasn’t talented enough or that he didn’t work hard enough. It was because he was involved in a off the field accident that impacted his ability to play football and then got into trouble the year after with the law. There has been ZERO evidence of any sort to suggest that Jalen Carter has these same issues. Todd McShay said what he said and it created a storm of Georgia people calling it bullshit. Was there the same backlash when Malik McDowell was called out for character concerns?
I will be frank. I do want the 2 defensive players ahead of any of the QBs in this draft. I like AR15, I like Will Levis. Bryce Young is talented guy. But for me, I think these 2 cats more worthy of a top 5 pick.
Also on your note about Ultra talented dudes that don’t work hard. I coach as well, likely not as long as you but I am super proud of the program I am at. Sometimes all it takes with those super talented guys is a coach that understands a kid.
Matt
Yes – I’m very aware that sometimes it takes a coach that understands a kid. I remember early in my coaching career when I believed that was me – for every troubled kid. The longer you do this the more you come to understand that coaches can inspire but they can’t motivate. Motivation is an internal drive. You can be supportive, give the greatest speech, but at the end of the day, it’s up to the player to get himself out of bed and doing the work.
There are a lot of “yea buts” that I can put up with; effort/motivation is not one them. And it’s especially troubling for a trench player.
You’ve never said he’s bad. You’ve never proclaimed he’s a bust. You’ve simply raised valid concerns that far too many are not willing to look at.
Perspective is lost these days
Seahawks fans online have already decided they’re going to go to war on ‘team DL’ or ‘team QB’ and they’ll be making bad faith arguments against each other until April
We need to be open-minded and discuss everything, pro’s and con’s
Big Boi
After watching yesterday’s beatdown, I am convinced that CJ Stroud is the truth with what he did to that defense. I would not be averse to trading both ones this year and one of our 2s or even next year’s 1 to move up and get him and still sit him behind Lock or Geno.
Big Boi
I even would be okay with not bringing back Geno or Lock and doing what Washington did in 2012 with RG3 and Kirk Cousins. Getting CJ Stroud and, oh, say, Stetson Bennett in the 5th would be very enticing to me.
Matt
Wow…hadn’t even crossed my mind regarding Stroud. Really does make his already amazing performance even better.
Julian L
#5 is an exciting pick to have but there is one projection that if I was John Schneider would worry me, especially if he’s as low (and more importantly Chicago are as low) on Jalen Carter as we are on here.
Chicago trade down to #4 with Indy and the first three picks are then Levis, Stroud, Anderson in that order. At this point Chicago might think another trade back with Carolina is the best option, who’d then come up to #4 and take Richardson.
Yes, this concerns me a little too much, especially as the drop off in excitement for me, from drafting Richardson, to anyone else not named Levis, Stroud or Anderson at #5 is considerable. I might even think of giving up the Seahawks 2024 first round pick to move up to #4 in this scenario. Presumably the Bears would be happier moving done just one position with this trade than a Carolina trade. You never know, Carolina might trade up even then with the Bears at #5 to take Bryce Young!
Amazing how many sliding door moments the Colts passed up this season to end up with a top 4 pick, is particularly annoying. The tie with Houston, the Vikings comeback and then the frankly pathetic attempt to defend 4 and 20 against the Texans again last week-end. Arrrr
Ross
This is a good, and very concerning, point. Worst case scenerio and I can definitely see it happening. Chicago would be smart to trade down twice, imo.
I agree that I think I’d like to see JS move up to get the QB he believes in.
Volume12
Just my 2 cents, but take a Keion White or a Dylan Horton a round later.
diehard82
Rob, glad to see your reservations about Carter, I’ve had them for some time. I actually think he would fall further than people think possible, like Jarran Reed, if there were more blue chip prospects in this draft. Primarily due to effort, conditioning and attitude. I feel he is going to need a lot of supervision and guidance and frankly a coach who is willing and able to light a fire. And I don’t see Carroll as that coach.
I certainly haven’t watched as many games as you have, but I have watched a handful of Florida games and also dived into PFF premium stats, and have reservations about Anthony Richardson. I’ve heard coaches say that 60% completion rate over college career is a magic number, and Richardson is under. In fact his adjusted completion rate after drops is about 64% which is 10-15% under the other QB’s we’re discussing. I can’t shake the idea that if accuracy is still an issue for him, is it really correctable?
Thanks for all your hard work, look forward to your blog every day.
A lot of local media slapping the Seahawks on the back today.
Larry Stone article with the title: “Geno Proved He Was Worth The Wait”
Tim Booth wrote an article with the headline: “Seahawk Changes Validated”
Matt
This was EXACTLY my concern about eeking into the playoffs. Our sycophantic media was going to hop on the sword for PC and…they did.
“They are so close!”
“You have to stay the course! It’s working!”
It’s interesting that blog favorite, Tony Pauline, still seems high on Carter. This is from his article on yesterday: “Jalen Carter has exceeded all my expectations this season and legitimately grades as a top-5 pick. Carter will grade as the top prospect of the entire draft and could end up as such with the Chicago Bears now owning the first selection.”
Matt
IMO – the thoughts on Carter really come down to belief someone has that his best moments become the norm/consistent for him, in the NFL.
For someone like Tony – I have no doubt his thought is “well he will be motivated to put it all together.”
For someone like me – it’s “why would he magically put in the dirty work AFTER getting paid?”
I understand the giddiness people have with elite traits – heck, we are doing it with QBs. I think the critical difference with the QBs (thinking Levis and AR) is that they will objectively step into a better situation where Carter will be stepping into worse whilst being demanded to take on a bigger workload.
I respect everything about Tony, think he’s an amazing analyst and consider him a friend.
I also disagree with him on plenty of things and that’s fine too. We’ll see what he ends up hearing about Carter down the line and as a plugged-in insider I’m sure he’ll have some interesting nuggets — positive or negative
CJ
Let’s say we draft Richardson, Levis or Stroud. Would you feel comfortable letting Geno walk away and running out Drew Lock to start the season and let the rookie develop in the wings? I really like the idea in saving that Geno money and paying someone else like an established DT, an OG or maybe another WR.
I would rather keep Geno as a bridge but no way am I paying GS a kings ransom to stay
BK26
I’ve said this many time, but I don’t want Lock back. Why? For him to struggle and a rookie to have the pressure of being pushed to start early? Lock couldn’t beat out anyone in Denver and hasn’t shown me anything.
Geno can at least maintain where the team is. No reverting with mediocre play. Would you rather a rookie sit behind Geno playing how he is, or Drew Lock. I don’t think they’re learning behind Lock at the same rate. To me that’s like having Patrick Mahomes sitting behind someone like AJ McCarron (success level, not skill level) compared to Alex Smith.
And I don’t think Geno will be too expensive. He will just sign as late as he can to get all of the $ that he can. To me there is no benefit to going with Lock. What he brings doesn’t outweigh the savings compared to Geno.
Pran
I am afraid Pete will be ready to offer sweetheart deal to Geno just to keep the team middle of the pack and let him (Pete) stay the course. Geno is talking business already..
AlaskaHawk
After reading the comments about Carter I’m going to bring up medical evaluations again. Everyone assumes that if he just shapes up and works harder at conditioning, he will be a better player. It seems likely to me that he can’t reach that conditioning level because something is not working to that level in his own body. Such as his heart or something in his lungs. He may just never be able to put for that amount of effort. So check carefully, Seahawks have been burned a couple times on medical stuff with both drafted and pro players.
It’s a massive reach Alaska to jump to speculative medical concerns when the far more likely outcome is ‘can’t be arsed to get in shape’
AlaskaHawk
The same could have been said about other players the Seahawks picked. Who was that linemen that turned out to have a heart condition? He never saw the regular season and was paid off – thanks to the kindness of the Seahawks.
You can call it an overreach – You can believe he is lazy and unmotivated – that his conditioning coach wasn’t effective = but I think the medical evaluation is critical with him.
Alaska, no. We don’t need to start speculating that people have serious health problems. That would be massively inappropriate and totally unfounded.
999/1000 times it’s just not being arsed in the gym. It’s as simple as that.
gp
Take a QB at #5, preferably Anthony Richardson or CJ Stroud: re sign Geno as bridge QB, only if he signs for $15 million or less per year.
Use cap money to sign Daron Payne as a free agent. That fills our biggest need, then use remaining high draft picks on center, offensive guard, Wr3, LB’s, whichever is best value when picks are made.
Also feel that we need a hard charging running back in later rounds to pair with Ken Walker, unless we re sign Rashad Penney on cheap contract.
3LeftsIsRight
For this draft I like Stroud, Levis and Anderson at #5. That’s it. I wouldn’t touch Carter at #5. Between now and April 27th it’s likely some team will ask the Seahawks to trade the #5 pick: Atlanta, Raiders, Carolina, & Washington all need a QB. Tennessee, Houston, NYJ, NE, and GB (if Rodgers retires) might want a QB, too. All pick in the top 16. The Seahawks should bite if the price is right. If a trade isn’t there, we should take the BPA. I’d rather we take an O-line stud with #5 rather than Carter; we already need help at center and guard. Even a top RB, WR or TE will make whoever is our QB that much better. With a trade down we could end up with perhaps 6-7 draft picks in the top 15-85 (which is where the real value of this class resides), plus maybe a 2024 1st rounder. There’s some intriguing impact players in this range who might help our defense, whatever scheme we run in 2023.
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We have a great community in the comments, we just ask you keep things on topic.
You’ve talked about in some places but if the hawks decide not to go QB at 5 and Anderson and Carter aren’t there either (I know this video is talking about the flaws in carters game), is there another player on either side of the ball you’d be comfortable taking, or is it QB or trade back in your mind? If so, how far back would you be willing to go and what are a few players you’d hope we pick in that range?
I don’t want to walk through the weeds of trading down at the moment but this isn’t a draft full of blue-chippers and I think you are duty bound to stick at #5 and pick from the pool of players I’ve discussed in recent articles. I see Tyree Wilson and Myles Murphy at #5 and I think that would be a reach on both counts
*Golf clap*
Increasingly clear that QB should be the move, can’t see a trade down happening. Honestly happy with any of the four QBs, like them all for different reasons, and would take any of them over Anderson or Carter.
Geno’s worst performance of the season (per PFF) and Carter’s issues are creating something of a perfect storm this week
I’m on the Anthony Richardson train. I think he would be perfect to groom. Resign Geno to bridge. Hawks could be set up for the next decade
You had me until you said resign and Geno in the same sentence (without the word “don’t” in it). 🙂
I just did a quick look at a highlight reel of Jalen Carter on YouTube and I have a question: Has anyone seen Jalen Carter do a rip move?
When Alan Ali blew him up on TCUs only touchdown it was something I saw a lot of against Ohio State. The right guard got on his right shoulder and “horn” blocked him away from the action. Then the guard reset his base in between him and the ball carrier.
A quick look at the video and I saw his swim move and a slap move, but only to the left side of the line of scrimmage on the sagittal right of the tackle. If you do a “horn” block you take both of those things away. The only tool left in his kit is a bull rush then. I think he needs a rip move. Or, he might have a rotator cuff injury on his left shoulder if he only doing moves on one side.
IIRC one of the criticisms of Carter is that he doesn’t have great arm length. This might explain the lunging I am seeing that gets him off balance. As a former high school wrestler, I can tell you that when you have bad techniques you always work much harder. This might explain why he looked so gassed against Ohio State.
But I haven’t seen enough of him to know.
Thoughts?
Rob, while we’re at it: do you see Stetson Bennet as a decent flyer in late rounds? He idelivers.
Idelivers?
Fried livers?
I love those!
He is an intriguing player
The more game tape I watch, the less I like Jalen Carter and the more I like Saiki Ika. In fact, my biggest concern is that if Carter is there at #5 and we take him, we are unlikely to double dip at DT in the first 4 picks and Ika will be wrecking backfields for someone else.
Fight me
I won’t.
Seattle needs ika in a 3-4 in a bad way.
Go:
Qb if possible. Levis?
Van pran. At 20 or wherever the draft falls.
Round two:
Ika.
Keion white ( might be a freaky athlete. Big time upside)
Pay for a lb and maybe a rg in FA.
That would be pretty salty. Levis or Richardson at #5 would be amazing.
Then Brian Branch with our native first, unless Bijan is somehow still sitting there.
2nd Round:
Van Pran
Saiki Ika
Zay Flowers if we miss out on one of the above.
That’ll work. For sure.
I had a comment in the same vein earlier today. I fear Stroud, Levis, Richardson and Andersen are gone and Carter is left. Too talented to pass up, but maybe has the biggest bust potential. Pete used to thrive motivating and getting the most from similar players. However this hasn’t happened lately. Also the 6 sacks in 2 years worries me. Finishing is a skill and going from disruption to sacks can be tough for some players. I’d love for a QB to be the pick
I kind of trust Pete not to take Carter. I think the Malik McDowell pick still stings.
Honestly Rob, I wouldn’t take Carter at all based on what you have said. Maybe he’ll drop all the way to the 2nd round.
I’m still uncomfortable with Bryce Young too.
The “doomsday” scenario is that we can’t trade back at 5 and only Young or Carter are on the board. Maybe they take the Georgia center at that point. If you want to play Pete ball, establish the run.
Anyway, I don’t know what I’d do in that situation. I don’t want Young or Carter. And I kind of think you don’t want either Rob – not trying to knock you, you’ve just convinced me they are more likely to bust (in a literal sense) than thrive.
I’d take Stroud, Richardson, or Levis at 5. I’d take Andserson if he was available and those were off the board. After that, hope someone trades up for Young?
I hate these comparisons of Jalen Carter to Malik Mcdowell. Do you know what every male between the ages of 18-25 years of age has in common? They are farking stupid! I know because I was there.
Tell me something, would you have taken Jerry Jeudy before Henry Ruggs III? Because Jerry Jeudy has sucked for all of his career until his head coach got fired this year. Ruggs drove a Corvette into a Toyota Rav-4 at 156 MPH causing it to burst into flames and killing the driver with a blood alcohol level twice the Nevada state limit. But if this doesn’t happen, Derek Carr still has a job.
Geno Smith had “a few glasses of wine” and got pulled over doing 90 MPH on I-5. Malik McDowell was off-roading on an ATV while drinking (IIRC). Tell me, what is the difference? Stupid is stupid.
Then there is luck.
Dennis Erickson poisoned Warren Sapp and Randy Moss right before the draft. A lot of times these accusations of “character issues” are based on someone’s agenda or spite, just like Tom Cruise in the movie “All the Right Moves.”
All of those guys got screwed, but (spoiler alert) Tom Cruise got to have sex with Leia Thompson.
I will leave you with that pleasant thought.
To be fair, there’s red flags and there’s Malik McDowell. Malik McDowell did not have red flags. Malik McDowell had public service announcements talking about what a disaster he would probably be. Rob wrote an article about how if you look at the measurable‘s how wonderful he would be, but he interviewed so badly. His coach could not find anything nice to say about him. He physically gave up on his team field. Later on, we even found out that his mom had issues with his decision making. The reality is, the Seahawks ultimately should have spent the money they spent on Eddie Lacy and Joekel (when quite have covered the cost they could’ve scrape a few more million to make it happen) and found a way to sign Calais Campbell. Because that’s what they wanted.
“Malik McDowell was off-roading on an ATV while drinking (IIRC).”
IIRC they did their best to bury the details and seal docs, but…the most likely scenario is that he crashed on the streets of Detroit. I believe the smoking gun was the salvage record on the abandoned ATV.
If you’re not aware, illegal use of ATVs and dirt bikes by urban youth has been an issue for going on a decade in eastern US cities. So not only bad judgement, but a strong indicator of gang ties as well.
Geno was 32 years old and drove drunk. That’s the biggest reason I hate him so bad. These young kids are stupid because we were all there but do does stupid like Geno? He’s 32. He drives drunk. He’s a free agent at the QB position. That takes a special kind of stupid.
Please give me Anthony Richardson. Every physical tool imaginable. Looks like he can navigate a pocket as well. If he does something stupid, he’s 21. I’ll give him a pass that I won’t give Mr. too stupid to write back when he’s a decade over. I’ve always thought QBS should have a certain set of rules than every other position.
Here is a reason why i like Richardson (DISCLAIMER IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH GUNS AND GUN CONTROL, NOT GETTING INTO THAT DEBATE): He doesn’t want the AR-15 nickname anymore because of all of the school shootings. Didn’t want any association or any causes to be a reminder of that.
That to me, is a kid that gets it. Understands where he can be and what he can be to kids. He could still be a kid and make mistakes, but I see some impressive character ground work.
And Jalen Carter is getting McDowell comparisons for lack of effort, conditioning, etc. Sometimes you are held at a higher standard and as an asset, you have a different value than a normal kid. There is being a kid, and then just having a little common sense.
Yes! Didn’t know that about Richardson and love him even more now!
Good point with Carter… if you’re a top 10 pick – you should be held to a higher standard. That shows who you are and what you value as an organization, too. It’s not like a Warren Sapp situation where he smoked some weed. I’m sure most players did and currently do. I don’t think that’s the character flags of someone who is flat out lazy.
Geno was drinking, was going 96 MPH, and told the cops they “had tiny d*cks” as a 31 year old. I’m glad that’s seen as a non-issue to you.
It does seem that Geno has gotten a pass for some very bad behavior. Do we know the status of his case? Was it deferred?
He refused a breathalyzer and it takes about a year for the lab results of a blood test, so we find out right around April.
Thank you!
Matt, I never said that Geno’s behavior was a non-issue to me. I just said that I hate the comparisons of Jalen Carter to Malik McDowell and was trying to point out a double standard.
Underclassmen have until Jan 16 to declare for the draft.
Stroud, throw your hat in the ring buddy.
I would not be upset if they packaged both 1st round picks and moved up to #2 for a QB. Not too many teams have multiple 1s this year and for a depleted Houston team 3 first round picks this year could be enticing.
I’m convinced that it’s Stroud on his own level, then the other three, then everyone else. Might as well throw in next year’s one and get to #1 to get the best prospect. This is a once-in-a-career opportunity for JS.
Of all the players that get mocked to Seattle, this is the one I absolutely dread right now. They HAVE to look hard at those QBs picking at 5.
Hi Rob,
Didn’t watch the game, but how did Avila do against the Georgia front? I know you were somewhat high on him as G prospect.
I would like to see our draft fall like this:
5. Richardson/Levis
20. Porter/Branch/Kancey
38. Kancey/Van Pran
54. Siaka
85. Avila
Ika is not only a guy you have to constantly double-team in the run game, but he provides a little bit of pass rush as well. I have a feeling that in 4 months time we will have to use the first of the second round picks if not the latter first round to get him.
Kansey lined up with Ika at nose would be a great combination, there should be multiple gaps for Kansey to slide through (like a greased pig) with his quickness and natural leverage. A VERY ideal pairing IMO.
He played fine, had some nice blocks
But the game got away from TCU so quickly it’s impossible really to get anything out of their performance
Had a thought about Geno’s drop of 2nd half of the season and wondered if there was anything like a rookie wall.
Yes he’s 32 but he’s had the last 7 years being a backup. There’s got to be a huge physical and mental difference between having to be ready if called and being the guy each week, especially when the run game and defence were struggling and he had to feel everything was on him.
On top of that 2 rookie tackles who probably did hit the wall and it might explain the drop off.
Still think we need a QB early and probably first up unless the draft isn’t kind first 4 picks, as keeping Geno might be a bit more money than we can afford
Or Geno is who we thought he was and there was more film on him and defensive coordinators adjusted accordingly and he became mediocre again.
It’s possibly not even that, he might just have had a really nice hot streak
It can happen
What is more infrequent is a career journeyman at age 32 suddenly becoming a longer term franchise QB
I definitely thought it was a little cheap for Seahawks twitter to put out that Geno set the single season passing yardage record this year without noting that it as in 17 games. Still piling on Russ via a subtle subtweet.
The offense could not run the ball very much at all in the second half. The defense couldn’t stop anyone on the ground in the second half.
PFF just noted that Lucas and Cross have had a 51.7 pass block grade in the second half.
Listen, I know Geno isn’t some all-world franchise QB we should give $50 million to, but what happened to his second half is the exact same thing that has been happening to RW for years in Seattle.
Running backs out, the defense is awful, and he’s expected to make magic with a poor OL.
Let’s keep that in mind.
I’ve also been thinking a lot about this – i.e. the reasons behind the regression. Because the eye test over the first half of the season felt very legit – he made all the high-level throws you want, and a handful of elite ones – and after a couple games, none of it felt lucky.
In addition to the points you note above – it also felt like the easy scheme throws that were so available throughout the 1st half of the year, were just taken away (i’m thinking all those roll out throws to TE’s coming across, or receivers behind them, etc), and we didn’t have enough Plan B options. This is also something we’ve seen before on the Hawks, when the offense just seems to be out of ideas.
None of this explains away the really poor decision INT’s (or near INT’s) that increased over the 2nd half of the season. My only explanation there (and it’s not a great one), is that Geno morphed a bit from a QB taking what was there, to a QB trying to do too much. Either way – it’s those bad moments that convinced me that he can be the present, but not the long-term plan. I’d 100% re-sign him though, still don’t think the good play was a fluke.
Great video Rob I think you summed up the situation perfectly!
Last year because of Rob’s scouting Ane Lucas was my must have Hawks draft pick on day #2.
This year is is definitely Sedric Van Pran. He is a flat out stud that looks great in both pass blocking and the run game. The other great thing is that he has been practicing daily his entire college career against NFL caliber DTs ( Wyatt, Walker, Davis, Carter etc) so the transition should be much easier.
The Hawks have struggled at the C spot since the Max Unger trade and should draft Van Pran at 36 to lock down that position once and for all. Would even be ok with them taking him with that second 1st round pick.
Toughest scenario is qb needy team gets Chicago pick Cards take Anderson and you like Young but don’t think he’s durable enough and choice is Carter/Young
Do you think AZ would trade with us and what would moving two spots cost us (JJ chart says Den 2nd would do it might be worth it to guarantee a choice of Stroud, Levis, Richardson) and AZ still gets Anderson/Carter or opportunity to trade down again with qb needy team.
My issue/concern with Carter is:
If he’s “iffy” enough for us to be saying we’d shy away from him, then why would any of the four teams ahead of us take him? We really need him to go in the top-4 to push one of the top-3 QBs down to us.
So unless we expect Bryce Young to go top-4 (which I just can’t see happening) we really need Carter to dominate between now and the draft.
My absolute worst fear is that come pick 5 we’re faced with a choice of Bryce Young and Jalen Carter. If Carter doesn’t excel pre-draft, I think that’s a distinct possibility.
Same reason someone like Jamarcus Russell can go #1. Teams, particularly those driven by desperation, can easily become enamored with a player’s raw talent and potential and overlook character concerns, or think they can fix their issues once they get to the NFL (fundamental attribution bias — “his coaches couldn’t get him to work hard but I bet WE can!”). I feel like this tendency also becomes amplified the further we get from the end of the CFB season and into the combine/pro days (recency bias), and the more the media spend their time hyping up a handful of players (confirmation bias). It can get even worse when there is a perceived scarcity at the position, or a guy with a flashy highlight reel gives you FOMO that you might have to live with missing on the next Aaron Donald.
tl;dr version — NFL GMs are prone to logical fallacies just like any of us.
Great post. Coaches have a lot of hubris. “I can fix him because I’m a superior coach.”
As a coach, we all do it. The real question is “what exactly are you trying to fix? And what is the direct source of the issue?”
The motivation one is usually a hand grenade with the pin-pulled, from my experience.
Why do you think Carter has such high grades from PFF? Full disclosure, I don’t subscribe and don’t really know how their grading works. It just seems odd to me that he would get a 90.1 pass rush grade for the season with such minimal real production. Does he have a lot of pressures or something that don’t show up on the stat sheet? Or is their grading system, as I suspect, a giant load of bull?
His snap count is limited. People point to his rate production as the selling point. It’s no different than pointing to a closer in baseball and saying “sure, he only pitches 1 inning but he would do the same over 9.”
There’s an odd assumption with Carter that despite his production and limited snap count; he’s somehow going to be better against better competition with a much higher snap count. The logic is…illogical.
Carter legitimately played very well after returning from injury and deserves the high grades
But the voiced concerns since then need to be heard
I think the Carter-McDowell comparison is fair, and it was only five years ago, so you’d think Pete and John will recall that one fairly vividly.
McDowell’s pre-draft profile from 2017 on NFL.com mentioned these two negatives, among others: “Production doesn’t match up with the traits and the talent”, and “Scouts concerned about work ethic and leadership”. Working hard to maximize your talent – or not working hard and not doing that – is a CHOICE. There are going to be plenty of players in the talent pool who the scouts deem to be high character, non-stop motor, etc., who make the better choice. I’d rather focus on those guys.
In my day job, I have managed a lot of people over the years. I can work with under-performers to turn them around and get them where they need to be, but the one thing I cannot do is make an employee care about doing a good job. McDowell didn’t care enough. And I’m worried that neither does Carter.
This sums up my position as well. It’s very hard to make people care and give effort when their first instinct is the opposite.
Feels like we are looking at a fairly non descript bunch of dline players in a year where many of us are pining for dline.
Some people posit that a doomsday scenario is Carter or young like that’s that you have to take one or the other and no others.
I’d argue that is such a defeatist way to look at the draft. Personally I’d rather get a big fat “f” grade out of the gates but draft anyone at five that is a true difference maker. A team is not beholden to drafting a consensus top five player unless that player is in their top five just because some ad filled sites with no money or careers on the line says so.
Re: Carter, maybe a few others. I get a vibe from a lot of the more talked about dlinemen that they were the best athletes on their teams for some time and never had to have that fire to make themselves great.
If every kid has red flags, they’d never be mentioned. It must be something beyond “he’s not ready to have a lot of money.”
Jachai Polite fell to round 3 and then flamed out of the league. We had him for a minute, but it never went anywhere.
And Geno’s drunk driving was bad. It didn’t sit well with me. He was in his 30s! I doubt he’s so good that we couldn’t replace him with someone like Jones, Carr, or even Lock next year as a bridge option if we get Richardson. But also, he hasn’t repeated his behavior, so let’s hope for his sake it stays that way.
But…innocent until proven guilty in Carter’s case. It’s wrong to rule him out on character at this point in the process. That’s fair. Who knows if someone’s agent isn’t pulling a shady trick? However, it’s weird that he gets sibgled out. They better turn over every rock or they could burn the pick. But beyond that, he doesn’t sound fit enough for number 5. It’s hard to be a game wrecker if you have to rest a bunch.
I think people are misinterpreting the “character concerns” deal and going to “he’s a bad person.” I think it’s been plainly hinted that the “issues” are related to work ethic.
You’re right – if we are assuming he’s a bad person based on generic statements, that’s bad.
However, I think it’s totally fair to speculate on work ethic concerns when it lines up with what happens on game day. These issues would’ve died a sudden death if he was playing 65% snaps and not looking gassed. However, we have low snap counts, limited production, and seeing a guy visibly out of shape partway through games. In this regard, the speculation is fair.
I generally agree with your comment, but thought context was important because I haven’t seen people making the case that he’s a terrible person. The concerns seem directly tied to “what type of work does he put in?”
This is my biggest concern with Carter. He will have to seriously commit to conditioning work in a way he’s never had to in his life in order to be on the field enough. If you’re picking in the Top 5, there’s no way you can risk having that player huffing oxygen on the sideline for the majority of the game.
Watching the title game, Bear Alexander jumped out in a big way. A true freshman who showed a motor and was crushing the pocket consistently. Too bad we’ll hae to wait a few years for a shot at that guy.
Nobody is ‘ruling out’ Carter
We’re just talking about concerns, which is fair, as we’d do about any player
Good video Rob. Here’s my biggest issue with the Carter situation…
The cult of Carter goes to YouTube and shows you the highlights and ask “how could you not want that? How could you think he’s not good?” They refuse to look at anything other than him dunking in a high school game, picking up the LSU QB.
He is good. He is very talented. He also disappears. He also, quite frankly, plays less than half a game. He clearly has conditioning issues.
“But he can get in shape – that’s not that hard.” Sure – I agree with that. The question they don’t ask themselves is “why isn’t he in shape now?” You’re going to give him 8 figures $ and *then* he will figure it out?
Forget football for minute – let’s look at basic human nature. Person A doesn’t do X. You now reward Person A with millions of dollars having not done X, in hopes that they start doing X. Why on earth would Person A *now* be motivated to do X?
People can laugh at that, but the biggest battle we all have is against our own nature. It’s like having a drug addled teenager who is failing school and you say, “I’m gonna buy the car you want – and then will you change your behavior?”
Jalen Carter can absolutely become an excellent NFL player. There’s no doubting that. He’s going to have to do things he’s never actually done or shown. That doesn’t mean it can’t happen, but with a top 5 pick – I’m willing to let someone else take the risk to find out.
I’ve coached for a long time; can’t tell you how many “man he’s talented and if he learns to work hard and be consistent – they will be great” have come through my ranks and guess what?…almost all of them continued to be the “what if – look at that potential” guys. “Yea but Matt, Pete Carroll is different and the ultimate motivator!” That’s great – is Pete going to live with Carter in the off-season? Why didn’t he do that with Malik McDowell?
Sorry for the long-winded post; you’re the only draft person that I’ve seen that actually has a smart and nuanced take on this situation. You’ve never said he’s bad. You’ve never proclaimed he’s a bust. You’ve simply raised valid concerns that far too many are not willing to look at.
Great post Matt and I agree completely about Human Nature. At their core people are who they are. Sure people can improve themselves but rarely does paying someone millions and then expecting them to change work out well. If he is not in shape his draft year that speaks volumes IMO.
Thanks Trevor.
My coaching mentor is 75 now. It’s really interesting hear him talk about these types of players. His motto is “you better not hope a person is going to be the opposite of what they’ve shown themselves to be.”
Nothing profound, but it’s simplicity drives home an important message.
Everyone brings up the Malik McDowell comparison but I don’t understand it. Malik McDowell never played a snap for Seattle. Not because he wasn’t talented enough or that he didn’t work hard enough. It was because he was involved in a off the field accident that impacted his ability to play football and then got into trouble the year after with the law. There has been ZERO evidence of any sort to suggest that Jalen Carter has these same issues. Todd McShay said what he said and it created a storm of Georgia people calling it bullshit. Was there the same backlash when Malik McDowell was called out for character concerns?
I will be frank. I do want the 2 defensive players ahead of any of the QBs in this draft. I like AR15, I like Will Levis. Bryce Young is talented guy. But for me, I think these 2 cats more worthy of a top 5 pick.
Also on your note about Ultra talented dudes that don’t work hard. I coach as well, likely not as long as you but I am super proud of the program I am at. Sometimes all it takes with those super talented guys is a coach that understands a kid.
Yes – I’m very aware that sometimes it takes a coach that understands a kid. I remember early in my coaching career when I believed that was me – for every troubled kid. The longer you do this the more you come to understand that coaches can inspire but they can’t motivate. Motivation is an internal drive. You can be supportive, give the greatest speech, but at the end of the day, it’s up to the player to get himself out of bed and doing the work.
There are a lot of “yea buts” that I can put up with; effort/motivation is not one them. And it’s especially troubling for a trench player.
Perspective is lost these days
Seahawks fans online have already decided they’re going to go to war on ‘team DL’ or ‘team QB’ and they’ll be making bad faith arguments against each other until April
We need to be open-minded and discuss everything, pro’s and con’s
After watching yesterday’s beatdown, I am convinced that CJ Stroud is the truth with what he did to that defense. I would not be averse to trading both ones this year and one of our 2s or even next year’s 1 to move up and get him and still sit him behind Lock or Geno.
I even would be okay with not bringing back Geno or Lock and doing what Washington did in 2012 with RG3 and Kirk Cousins. Getting CJ Stroud and, oh, say, Stetson Bennett in the 5th would be very enticing to me.
Wow…hadn’t even crossed my mind regarding Stroud. Really does make his already amazing performance even better.
#5 is an exciting pick to have but there is one projection that if I was John Schneider would worry me, especially if he’s as low (and more importantly Chicago are as low) on Jalen Carter as we are on here.
Chicago trade down to #4 with Indy and the first three picks are then Levis, Stroud, Anderson in that order. At this point Chicago might think another trade back with Carolina is the best option, who’d then come up to #4 and take Richardson.
Yes, this concerns me a little too much, especially as the drop off in excitement for me, from drafting Richardson, to anyone else not named Levis, Stroud or Anderson at #5 is considerable. I might even think of giving up the Seahawks 2024 first round pick to move up to #4 in this scenario. Presumably the Bears would be happier moving done just one position with this trade than a Carolina trade. You never know, Carolina might trade up even then with the Bears at #5 to take Bryce Young!
Amazing how many sliding door moments the Colts passed up this season to end up with a top 4 pick, is particularly annoying. The tie with Houston, the Vikings comeback and then the frankly pathetic attempt to defend 4 and 20 against the Texans again last week-end. Arrrr
This is a good, and very concerning, point. Worst case scenerio and I can definitely see it happening. Chicago would be smart to trade down twice, imo.
I agree that I think I’d like to see JS move up to get the QB he believes in.
Just my 2 cents, but take a Keion White or a Dylan Horton a round later.
Rob, glad to see your reservations about Carter, I’ve had them for some time. I actually think he would fall further than people think possible, like Jarran Reed, if there were more blue chip prospects in this draft. Primarily due to effort, conditioning and attitude. I feel he is going to need a lot of supervision and guidance and frankly a coach who is willing and able to light a fire. And I don’t see Carroll as that coach.
I certainly haven’t watched as many games as you have, but I have watched a handful of Florida games and also dived into PFF premium stats, and have reservations about Anthony Richardson. I’ve heard coaches say that 60% completion rate over college career is a magic number, and Richardson is under. In fact his adjusted completion rate after drops is about 64% which is 10-15% under the other QB’s we’re discussing. I can’t shake the idea that if accuracy is still an issue for him, is it really correctable?
Thanks for all your hard work, look forward to your blog every day.
A lot of local media slapping the Seahawks on the back today.
Larry Stone article with the title: “Geno Proved He Was Worth The Wait”
Tim Booth wrote an article with the headline: “Seahawk Changes Validated”
This was EXACTLY my concern about eeking into the playoffs. Our sycophantic media was going to hop on the sword for PC and…they did.
“They are so close!”
“You have to stay the course! It’s working!”
A lot of unnecessary victory laps this week online
It’s interesting that blog favorite, Tony Pauline, still seems high on Carter. This is from his article on yesterday: “Jalen Carter has exceeded all my expectations this season and legitimately grades as a top-5 pick. Carter will grade as the top prospect of the entire draft and could end up as such with the Chicago Bears now owning the first selection.”
IMO – the thoughts on Carter really come down to belief someone has that his best moments become the norm/consistent for him, in the NFL.
For someone like Tony – I have no doubt his thought is “well he will be motivated to put it all together.”
For someone like me – it’s “why would he magically put in the dirty work AFTER getting paid?”
I understand the giddiness people have with elite traits – heck, we are doing it with QBs. I think the critical difference with the QBs (thinking Levis and AR) is that they will objectively step into a better situation where Carter will be stepping into worse whilst being demanded to take on a bigger workload.
I respect everything about Tony, think he’s an amazing analyst and consider him a friend.
I also disagree with him on plenty of things and that’s fine too. We’ll see what he ends up hearing about Carter down the line and as a plugged-in insider I’m sure he’ll have some interesting nuggets — positive or negative
Let’s say we draft Richardson, Levis or Stroud. Would you feel comfortable letting Geno walk away and running out Drew Lock to start the season and let the rookie develop in the wings? I really like the idea in saving that Geno money and paying someone else like an established DT, an OG or maybe another WR.
100%
Lock + Richardson + FA DT & OG
Your thoughts match my mine exactly.
Lock is going to get double-digit millions less than Geno, imo. That’s enough right there to make you want to go with him over the rookie.
…over Geno.
I hope for Lock in ’23 with some packages for Richardson to take advantage of his natural ability.
I would rather keep Geno as a bridge but no way am I paying GS a kings ransom to stay
I’ve said this many time, but I don’t want Lock back. Why? For him to struggle and a rookie to have the pressure of being pushed to start early? Lock couldn’t beat out anyone in Denver and hasn’t shown me anything.
Geno can at least maintain where the team is. No reverting with mediocre play. Would you rather a rookie sit behind Geno playing how he is, or Drew Lock. I don’t think they’re learning behind Lock at the same rate. To me that’s like having Patrick Mahomes sitting behind someone like AJ McCarron (success level, not skill level) compared to Alex Smith.
And I don’t think Geno will be too expensive. He will just sign as late as he can to get all of the $ that he can. To me there is no benefit to going with Lock. What he brings doesn’t outweigh the savings compared to Geno.
I am afraid Pete will be ready to offer sweetheart deal to Geno just to keep the team middle of the pack and let him (Pete) stay the course. Geno is talking business already..
After reading the comments about Carter I’m going to bring up medical evaluations again. Everyone assumes that if he just shapes up and works harder at conditioning, he will be a better player. It seems likely to me that he can’t reach that conditioning level because something is not working to that level in his own body. Such as his heart or something in his lungs. He may just never be able to put for that amount of effort. So check carefully, Seahawks have been burned a couple times on medical stuff with both drafted and pro players.
It’s a massive reach Alaska to jump to speculative medical concerns when the far more likely outcome is ‘can’t be arsed to get in shape’
The same could have been said about other players the Seahawks picked. Who was that linemen that turned out to have a heart condition? He never saw the regular season and was paid off – thanks to the kindness of the Seahawks.
You can call it an overreach – You can believe he is lazy and unmotivated – that his conditioning coach wasn’t effective = but I think the medical evaluation is critical with him.
Alaska, no. We don’t need to start speculating that people have serious health problems. That would be massively inappropriate and totally unfounded.
999/1000 times it’s just not being arsed in the gym. It’s as simple as that.
Take a QB at #5, preferably Anthony Richardson or CJ Stroud: re sign Geno as bridge QB, only if he signs for $15 million or less per year.
Use cap money to sign Daron Payne as a free agent. That fills our biggest need, then use remaining high draft picks on center, offensive guard, Wr3, LB’s, whichever is best value when picks are made.
Also feel that we need a hard charging running back in later rounds to pair with Ken Walker, unless we re sign Rashad Penney on cheap contract.
For this draft I like Stroud, Levis and Anderson at #5. That’s it. I wouldn’t touch Carter at #5. Between now and April 27th it’s likely some team will ask the Seahawks to trade the #5 pick: Atlanta, Raiders, Carolina, & Washington all need a QB. Tennessee, Houston, NYJ, NE, and GB (if Rodgers retires) might want a QB, too. All pick in the top 16. The Seahawks should bite if the price is right. If a trade isn’t there, we should take the BPA. I’d rather we take an O-line stud with #5 rather than Carter; we already need help at center and guard. Even a top RB, WR or TE will make whoever is our QB that much better. With a trade down we could end up with perhaps 6-7 draft picks in the top 15-85 (which is where the real value of this class resides), plus maybe a 2024 1st rounder. There’s some intriguing impact players in this range who might help our defense, whatever scheme we run in 2023.