Landry Jones & Ryan Tannehill not first round QB’s

November 5th, 2011 | Written by Rob Staton

Landry Jones met Ryan Tannehill in the 'not worth a first round pick' bowl

This was an opportunity for two big name quarterbacks to impress.

Neither did.

Ryan Tannehill (Texas A&M) and Landry Jones (Oklahoma) have received a lot of positive hype this year. It’s far from a consensus, but a lot of people expect Jones to be a top ten pick. Tannehill was a fancied outsider – the kind of player scouts and fans look to in the hope he can add his name to the list of potential stars available in this class. Some high profile draft pundits even touted the possibility that Tannehill may be the second best quarterback eligible for 2012.

Wrong on both accounts.

I’ve seen quite a lot of Tannehill this season (five games) and this was my third batch of tape on Jones (I have a fourth Oklahoma game saved for later vs Kansas State). In each game I’ve seen from the pair this season, I’ve found myself highlighting the same issues. In Jones’ case, a lot of his problems were prevalent last season and there just hasn’t been enough of a leap in 2011 to warrant the kind of grades he’s receiving. Expectations went through the roof for Tannehill – perhaps unfairly – and games like this bring about something of a reality check.

Let’s start with Jones.

It only took until 6:04 remaining in the first quarter before we saw the play. I refer to it as the play because it’s had exagerrated success for Oklahoma this season in the previous two games I’ve seen. I fully expected to see it again today and low and behold, there it was midway through the first quarter. It’s not a hard play to detect – Ryan Broyles and Kenny Stills bunch together on the left and Landry Jones is in the gun. Jones takes the snap, pumps with his shoulder in the direction of Broyles who runs a short inside slant sucking in the coverage to open space down the left sideline for Stills on a fade. It’s the play that won the game against Florida State earlier in the season and it’s become a staple for Jones and the Sooners.

This time it wasn’t so successful – Jones pumped but then strangely floats an under thrown high pass with no touch or direction into coverage and somehow the linebacker drops an easy interception. It was unclear on the replay if the pass was tipped or not, but it was a great precursor to Jones’ overall performance on the day. It was awkward, generally inaccurate and a little predictable. I’ve seen him look a lot sharper than this and I suspect when I dig out the K-State tape that’s what I will find. However, this game raised one of my biggest concerns with Jones.

We saw the exact same play again in the second half and this time it led to a Stills touchdown. As a mere observer when I’m going into a game expecting to see this play once, that’s something. But the Oklahoma offense is based around the same small collection of plays and whether teams can cope with the speed in which they’re snapping the ball to execute these plays. Teams are so scared of Broyles – who is a production machine – they compensate in coverage when he runs anything inside allowing Stills the space to get open in single coverage. Everyone knows they’re gong to run this play eventually yet it still works. It’ll be interesting to see if they go away from it since Broyles unfortunately tore an ACL, but I’d also love to go back through the games since the FSU win and chart how many of Jones’ touchdowns come from this single play. In the NFL, he won’t be able to rely on staple plays. More worrying, I haven’t seen enough evidence of improvisation where Jones is going to a second or third option consistently. Jones is almost handcuffed to his playbook.

We’re not talking about a physically excellent quarterback, or even a big play quarterback who does the unpredictable. This is a guy who generally gets the job done in college – he executes his small playbook well enough to make the most of the talent he has to work with and let’s give credit where it’s due – he has to make this thing tick. He’s achieved that and from a college point of view, he’s done an excellent job avoiding any post-Sam Bradford hangover for the Sooners.

However, I really believe that he’s quite a limited player and at the next level he’ll just be found out like so many quarterbacks before him. When the environment isn’t perfect, neither is Jones. When things break down, he won’t improvise. One of the biggest issues I have is a complete lack of mobility. Ryan Mallett was labelled a statue last year, but he knew how to work a pre-snap read and had the ability to get the ball out quickly with accuracy to avoid outside pressure. He also – surprisingly – flashed ability to extend plays with footwork (he dodged Von Miller twice against Texas A&M last season to complete passes, one for a touchdown). Jones has nothing like this level of technical or mental ability. He takes unnecessary sacks when offered an open pocket to step into to buy time. He won’t round the edge and get out of the pocket. Get him moving on the run and nine times out of ten the ball’s going out of bounds. His footwork is plodding and weighted and if you take away his first read there’s every chance you’ll get to him.

I often get asked for the positive side of things – sometimes we can be too focused on the negatives and arguing why a player doesn’t warrant the hype rather than a balanced review of pro’s and con’s. If you want me to write down a handful of nice things to say about Landry Jones, I can do that for you. He has passable arm strength, decent height and a throwing motion that’s slightly 3/4 but he doesn’t have many passes batted down at the LOS (unlike Tannehill, more on that later). Like most quarterbacks with any reputation in college, he does a good job when afforded a clean pocket and he flashes his ability to throw his hot read open. There are a lot of blind throws in the OU offense, but there are also several passes that do require some touch and when given time he can be accurate at times it just isn’t consistent enough to be the positive it needs to be. His production is excellent and had Oklahoma stayed unbeaten he could’ve been a Heisman candidate. His two touchdown passes were both nice plays on the day – one coming on the wide open fade to Stills and the other a catch-able back shoulder throw to Jaz Reynolds who made a spectacular one-handed grab.

Here’s the bottom line though – I wouldn’t draft Landry Jones. I cannot see him ever succeeding at the next level. His best situation would be to land on a team with an experienced offensive coaching staff and a defined scheme that doesn’t require a lot of pocket mobility (most teams see mobility as being crucial these days). Allow him to master a playbook and groom him to replace a succesful veteran who still has miles on the clock. Of course, that’s an ideal situation for any quarterback entering the NFL – but for some it’s more necessary than others and Jones fits into that category. If he starts early, he’ll struggle. He won’t be able to digest complex defensive reads, he’ll take too many sacks and with greater pressure and a less fluid offense he’ll turn the ball over. There are no logical reasons for any team to touch the guy in the top half of round one and I suspect by the time April arrives his stock will be lower than it is right now.

What about Tannehill?

I’ve been more negative than most about his play so far this year. He entered 2011 a really intriguing prospect – this was a guy who took over the starting gig at Texas A&M last season converting from receiver and he just won games. He beat Jones and Oklahoma, he beat Oklahoma State, Baylor and Texas. His only defeat came in the Cotton Bowl to LSU – currently the #1 ranked college team before tonight’s game against Alabama. He’s big, he’s athletic and he appears to have the right attitude. Understandably, people bought into his potential.

The hype went too high, too soon. A guy who ended last year with modest round 3/4 range grades was suddenly touted as possibly the second best QB to Andrew Luck – ahead of Matt Barkley. Big plays were being received with nods of approval and premature ‘I told you so’s’ about his potential, while negative plays (and there have been a few) were greeted by naysayers calling out those creating the hype. The truth lies somewhere in the middle. Tannehill has physical qualities that are attractive, but he’s not anywhere close to anything like an established or technical passer. There is so much he has to learn to play quarterback in the NFL and the question is whether or not he’ll be able to do that considering we only have 1.5 seasons of college tape to make a projection.

Here’s what happened today and this was as poor a performance I’ve seen from Tannehill so far.

With 2:31 left in the first quarter, Tanehill takes the snap in the gun and locks on to his primary receiver. He stays with the receiver for three seconds – which was too long – and really needed to progress to another option. He sticks in the pocket and eventually turns to the sideline and unwisely forces a pass into double coverage which is easily picked off for a big interception return. It was a very poor decision to attempt that pass, at no point should it have been an option and it was proof of a quarterback feeling pressure from his blind side, panicking and making an avoidable mistake.

It highlighted a significant issue I have with Tannehill – he locks on to his primary target too often and for whatever reason (experience or because he’s incapable of doing it) he doesn’t do a good enough job getting away from his hot read. In each game I’ve watched Tannehill this season I’ve seen a quarterback too attached to the first option that he becomes tentative, sometimes waiting for clear separation before attempting the pass. If it doesn’t come, he’ll panic and sensing pressure (that isn’t always there) he forces mistakes. He needs to show much greater poise, timing, awareness of not only his position and that of the defensive lineman and better decision making. On this particular play against Oklahoma he could’ve easily run a bootleg to the right getting out of the pocket – it would’ve bought as many as 4-5 extra seconds to complete a pass or as a secondary option he could’ve chosen to run with the ball – the space was that substantial on the right boot leg. Instead he forces the throw and turns it over.

There are two technical complaints I have. Firstly, he’s quite robotic in his throwing motion and looks stiff. It doesn’t appear to be a natural motion and while this is something he can improve with a good quarterbacks coach (and by simply relaxing a little) he doesn’t have a natural flow in the same way a lot of high first round picks have shown. Secondly, he has a 3/4 release which is too low for my liking. At his height, he shouldn’t be having the number of tipped passes we see. Some quarterbacks (like Landry Jones) get away with it, but not Tannehill. His second interception came from one of these tipped passes and he almost had another in the second half. He’ll need to straighten out that delivery during the senior bowl and subsequent work outs.

The third interception may have been the worst of the lot – a desperate throw chasing the game just lobbed up for grabs down the right sideline. This just isn’t good enough in general, it was maybe the worst throw I’ve seen this season. He’s under no pressure and breaks out of the pocket this time with a clean line of vision to Jeff Fuller. He can clearly see the receiver is not only covered, but he’s got into a bad position with his back turned and the DB is facing the football. Tannehill cannot throw that pass under any circumstance. At least with the first pick there was moderate pressure from Frank Alexander and it was just a bad decision on his second read. He’s locked onto Fuller here and just forced an interception. It’s the kind of play you just don’t see from Andrew Luck, Matt Barkley, Robert Griffin, Landry Jones, Austin Davis or Brandon Weeden. It’s the kind of lazy turnover Nick Foles makes.

Again we can run through the positives and unlike Jones we’re not talking about a limited physical prospect. Tannehill is a mobile player who can extend plays while also making significant gains on the ground. His touch on deep passes is generally good. His poise is inconsistent but on a key 3rd and 6 from inside his own end zone I liked the fact he was patient enough for Ryan Swope to get open before making the completion for a nice gain. On the touchdown pass just before half time, Tannehill has perfect protection and must’ve been tempted to run the ball when nobody was open initially – the first down may well have been achievable running the ball. However, he keeps his eyes downfield and when Swope breaks coverage it’s an easy pass for a big score. That flashed good decision making to contrast the bad turnovers and at least suggests there is something to work with in that regard.

The inexperience issue can be used both as a positive and a negative, but there’s enough of an unknown there to wonder ‘what if’? Of course unknown development holding a clipboard isn’t even a real intangible and while someone like Jake Locker boasted real physical and playmaking potential, Tannehill is far from that level. I wouldn’t rule out Tannehill the way I’d rule out Jones, I just have very little confidence that in a few years time we’ll be talking about him as a starting NFL quarterback. It was incredibly ambitious to ever even suggest he could possibly be graded higher than Matt Barkley – who is far superior in terms of a NFL projection. I’d grade him in rounds 3-4 and whether he goes higher than that in my view will depend on a teams desperation to fill a hole at quarterback.

I do feel slightly vindicated watching a game like this. For me it has always been about Luck and Barkley in round one – hardly an ambitious suggestion, but certainly not a common one given it doesn’t include the likes of Jones, Tannehill etc. Too many people have tried to create problems with Barkley, when the reality is he’s a tremendously accurate and technical passer primed to have a quick impact in the NFL. We all know about Andrew Luck. The rest of the group aren’t anywhere close to the top-two. The one wildcard is Robert Griffin III – a major project but one in possession of a lot of intriguing physical tools, elite character and rare consistency with the deep ball in terms of accuracy, touch and placement. Not every team will be able to draft Griffin early and he’s a long way off Cam Newton type potential, but there is something there. Remember to keep an eye on Austin Davis too – he’s the reason Southern Miss are ranked and another victory today at East Carolina will boost that reputation further.

If you’re looking for a first round quarterback who can come in and have a very real chance to lead your team for over a decade, the list starts with Luck and ends with Barkley. The Seahawks should let someone else take a chance on Jones and Tannehill.

27 Responses to “Landry Jones & Ryan Tannehill not first round QB’s”

  1. PatrickH says:

    On the second interception by Tannehill, it seemed like he kept looking at the offense left side during that play, which may have allowed the D lineman to anticipate his throw and get a hand up in time to tip the pass.

    Having watched several Texas A&M games and second-half collapses this year, their pass defense didn’t seem that good. It’s bad news for Landry Jones that he completed 18 of 38 attempts against this defense.

  2. Cliff says:

    If we cant get Barkley then i’d still go after Tannehill/RG3 in the 2nd.

    • Tom says:

      I’d take Tannehill or RG3 in the 2nd in a heartbeat. Anything is possible, but doubt either will last until our early 2nd rd selection.

  3. Tom says:

    While I’m not a big fan of Jones, when he gets protection, he throws a nice NFL ball. What I want to see more from Barkley besides his game management bubble screens, slants and sweet fades, are more deep outs and deep crossing routes.

    I’ve attached the highlights of OU/TAM. On the 57 yd completion to Broyles, Jones looks the part as he stands tall in the pocket and effortlessly drills a 30 yd deep cross over the leaping LB that hits Broyles right in stride. That is NFL QB play right there.

    On the play that Broyles was injured, Jones drills a nice pass over another LB and between another 2 defenders.

    While those 2 represent a small sample, those are the plays that give reason for a 1st rd draft potential.

    http://scores.espn.go.com/ncf/video?gameId=313090201

    • Kip Earlywine says:

      Honestly, if I thought Jones had even the slightest chance of being drafted here I’d be the good cop to Rob’s bad cop regarding Jones. Like Rob, I wouldn’t draft Jones at all, but I think Jones is a virtual lock to be a 1st round pick, and unlike Ponder last year, seeing it happen won’t cause my head to explode.

  4. Tom says:

    Since there is a lot of Barkley conversation, Jeff Risdon from realgm had the following rated as his top college prospects in an 11/5 blog.

    1. Luck 10. Tannehill 12. RG3 29. Jones 41. Weeden 52. Barkley

    52. Matt Barkley, QB, USC. Spotlight: I’m not buying into the love, but there is enough here to like that I won’t write him off. But I see an awful lot of Brady Quinn when I watch Barkley.

    http://football.realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/24408/20111105/top_103_prospects_for_2012_nfl_draft_midseason_edition/

    It’s ironic that I’ve said the same thing. I’m not buying the love until I see more NFL throws. It’s an insult to compare Barkley to Quinn but I’ve also compared him to Sanchez and Quinn falls into a lessor category.

    Barkley is definitely pro ready, but I don’t see a lot that WoW’s me. Barkley is good at everything but is he really great at anything?

    • Rob says:

      I don’t see any logical comparison between Quinn and Barkley, completely different players. Looks to me like people are trying too hard to find faults with Barkley. Just saying ‘I’m not buying into the love’ won’t cut it. On a technical front he’s a country mile ahead of Brady Quinn. He doesn’t need to make a lot of ‘WOW’ throws – how much did that help Ryan Mallett? And for what it’s worthy, Barkley’s shoulder pump and lazer throw deep to Marquise Lee was as good as it gets vs Colorado. Stunning.

    • mattlock3 says:

      Do you ever actually watch Barkley? I’m not trying to be an ass, I’m honestly wondering. Because I cannot possibly see how someone can watch what I watch, and come to the ‘out-in-left-field’ conclusions you come to.

      • Tom says:

        What are the ‘out in left field’ conclusions do you refer to? It’s not only me as that other site had Barkley as the 6th rated QB and #52 prospect. I dissect the film and don’t see WoW. I see game management.

        List my ‘out in left field’ and I’ll response accordingly.

    • Matt says:

      Luck makes for fewer “difficult” throws than Barkley. Why no complaints about his game?

      • Tom says:

        I didn’t realize I’m complaing about Barkley. I said he’s good at everything. Is that complaining?

        I’m just saying I’d like to see more deep outs and deep crossing throws. I’ve given Barkley plenty of props but I’m like that website, I’m not in love with the guy.

        I see a great college QB playing against below average D’s with excellent WR’s game managing with quick slants, bubble screens and excellent fades.

  5. Colin says:

    When I watch Barkley, I see a guy who reads progressions fast, doesn’t take sacks and is incredibly shifty in the pocket. Ever notice how USC is ALWAYS gaining yards, even if it’s in very small increments? You don’t need big plays if you can keep going forward on every play. The 2005 Seahawks personified that. Great running game, few penalties, take your shots when they are there, but always keep going forward. I like that philosophy.

    • Don says:

      Keep moving the ball forward with short throws is good, but the offense has to throw deep once in a while to keep the defense honest. The short passing game only works for a short time before the defense adjusts and move up, and that is when you need a QB that can deliver the deep pass / big play.

      • Rob says:

        The tape vs Colorado posted on the blog today clearly shows Barkley is more than capable of going downfield.

        • Tom says:

          Barkley’s not great going downfield. The TD was nice but like Dalton trying to throw those fades to AJ Green vs Sherman. Both were picked off. You may get away with that against the Pac 10 secondaries but not the NFL.

          Barkley throws a nice fade to the right but crossing routes and down the seams, he doesn’t impress. Should’ve been picked when the CU player fell on his head. Over threw what would’ve been a Jones throw between the CB and safety. Over threw a couple of more that will be detailed later.

          It’s still checkdowns and bubble screens from Barkley. That is why the Sanchez comparisons. That is why he was ranked #52 by a blogger and compared to Brady Quinn. It’s the “lofted” deep balls. NIce touch but as you know, in h.s. windows are 8 yds, college 3 yds and NFL 2 feet.

          I like Barkley but feel the need for some other objective observation because it’s all love for Barkley in this forum and there’s enough there to question his ceiling at the next level.

          • Colin says:

            “There’s enough there to question his ceiling at the next level”.

            Let’s hear it, Tom. Do you have anything besides “He needs to throw much deep crossing patterns and out routes”? What does Barkley need to do better? Specifics.

          • Tom says:

            That’s a huge question mark, Colin. His ability to make NFL throws into tight windows is a concern. His fade is excellent and short slants and bubbles but he doesn’t utilize the middle of the field as well as I’d like to see from a top 3 prospect.

            Those open receivers that he typically lofts balls to won’t be standing open against NFL secondaries. Corner and safeties are so much better than what he’s facing against CU.

            Being able to throw in between a cb and safety is necessary at the next level. Do you see a lot of the vids we get on this site that show those throws?

            Throwing a pass like Jones threw against TAM is necessary. An occasional 30 yd deep cross against a Tampa 2 defense is important. Having the arm and accuracy to throw a deep out before an Asante Samuel has time to jump the route is important.

            Barkley has the game managing thing down well and he’s NFL ready and reason I like Matt.

            The reason he was rated #52 by realgm which is low is because of the lack of consistency on stick throws and deep balls with better trajectory. His TD throw to Lee was excellent but most of his downfield throws into tight windows went incomplete. I see Sanchez, real gm sees Quinn. We’re both not morons that have never broken down game film and dissected QB play.

            I like Barkley but nothing he does is overly impressive. He’s very solid. It’s amazing when you offer both sides, so many sound defensive as if Barkley were their twin brother and don’t realize I like Barkley.

          • Tom says:

            A perfect example of a necessary NFL throw that needs to be made was thrown by Ben with 6 minutes left in the game vs the Ravens.

            He stood in and delivered a 25 yd deep cross to Antonio Brown into a tight window to move Pittsburgh into Raven territory. They just scored to take a 20-16 lead.

            I’m not saying (for the 4th time) that Barkley can’t make those NFL throws, but his USC offense is conservative with throws to the outside short or the outside long. The middle of the field is typically used for check downs.

          • mattlock3 says:

            I feel ya here, Tom.

            I think I noticed this inconsistency on the deep balls most notably in this Colorado game, and it’s true, he does have a tendency to either overthrow his deep balls or float the deep seam routes and crossing routes. That could get him in trouble at the next level.

            However, what sets him apart from QBs like Landry Jones, Brandon Weeden, Nick Foles, Case Keenum, Ryan Tannehill, etc etc etc, is his pocket awareness and ability to progress from read to read quickly and efficiently. Only occasionally do you find him forcing balls into tight coverage. He makes excellent decisions with the football, and he can run the play-action in his sleep.

            Landry Jones may be able to execute individual throws with more strength/touch/accuracy/placement/[insert noun here], but that just makes him a better ‘thrower’. Barkley is, in my opinion, a far superior ‘quarterback’.

            Tom Brady has made a career (and a legacy) out of his otherworldly pocket presence, his sense of timing, and his ability to execute to perfection the quick slant, bubble screens, and out routes. Because he’s not incapable of throwing a deep ball, defenses can get caught creeping up on him, and he’ll make them pay. But he is intelligent and a coach can trust him with an entire playbook–just like Barkley.

            I’ve noticed you conflating the terms ‘point-guard quarterback’ and ‘game-manager’, and blowing off the former as a mere re-characterization of the latter. I think there is an important distinction here that shouldn’t be missed.

            –A ‘game-manager’ is someone you trust with a minimalized playbook, someone who scoots a simple offense along doing just enough to hopefully not screw up. He is rarely a threat in and of himself, but serves as a go-between from the center to the primary playmakers. Alex Smith with the 49ers is a case-in-point ‘game-manager.’ His job is hand the ball to Gore or throw it to Davis or Edwards, and try not to screw up in the process.

            –A ‘point-guard quarterback’ may play the part of game-manager at times, but he has the freedom to improvise and make reads and audibles, spreading the ball evenly and accurately across the field. He is himself a scoring threat, whether with his legs, or with his ability to adjust–even in the middle of a play–and turn nothing into something. He mixes short and intermediate passes with enough deep throws to keep the safeties honest. He doesn’t require a stationary pocket and a ton of time to make his throws, but is comfortable throwing with his feet set or on the move.

            Matt Ryan has been held up as a prototypical point-guard quarterback, but honestly, I think that’s on the conservative side. Like a bare minimum, almost. Aaron Rodgers strikes me as a prototypical point-guard quarterback.

            I ask you, does Landry Jones fit the first or second description better? And, what say you of Matt Barkley?

    • Kip Earlywine says:

      I liked Rob’s comp to Matt Ryan. Some similarities physically, and both QBs are somewhat on the “dink and dunk” half of the QB spectrum. Both play the game at a fast pace and make quick decisions.

      I don’t know if a Matt Ryan is actually what Seattle is looking for, I suspect the guy they really want is Michael Vick and Robert Griffin is probably the closest they will get to that.

  6. Jkresse says:

    Unless we’re in the top five we’re not getting luck or Barkley. What we can hope for is to take Trent Richardson in the first and try for RG3 in the second. His TD/INt ratio is 67/15 and he escapes sacks like a magician. Perfect scenario for us right now

  7. Kip Earlywine says:

    I know Walterfootball is pretty hit and miss with their evaluations, but their prospect ranking board is usually pretty close to how NFL GMs sort prospects, and right now he has Austin Davis as the 18th ranked QB (rounds 6-7), with nothing negative to say about the guy.

    Under-rated much?

  8. [...] grade that has since changed to a first round projection. I’ve been negative about Jones, as evidenced in my review of his performance against Texas A&M this weekend. I wouldn’t draft the guy as I said on Saturday. However, I also don’t see any benefit [...]

  9. Steve on Cow Bayou says:

    RGIII is special on the long balls, but once he takes a couple of big hits, he gets jumpy, 4 or 5 big hits and he gives up.

  10. Frank says:

    I always thought Joe cool was the perfect Qb. Drive, pocket presence, anticipation, accuracy, and leadership. Marino and Farve may have been able to throw farther leading to longer career than most, but give me the length of the field for the Super bowl win and I’ll take Joe cool or maybe even Kurt Warner anytime. Point is I didn’t care much for Bradford because his arm strengh is so poor, but he’s doin ok. Nobody beside Phill Sims seems to have any problem with this noodle arm Luck, and where did Mallet get drafted? Point being Acuraccy is the new premium not arm strength. Rob whats up callin Barkley a 3-4 rounder? Either your a first rounder and worth starting year one, or your a long shot developmental guy. I hear the point your makin but 3-4 rounders are lifetime clipboard holders. Barkley’s a gamer who wants the ball in the clutch desperatly and makes play’s. I love RG3 but If this is Vegas my money is on Barkley to be the better pro in the long run. I think the number of young emerging Talents on this team and I could see trading a great many picks for Luck, Indy could see a massive reload and a couple more Title runs with P Manning.

  11. [...] rest to scrap for Robert Griffin III. Ryan Tannehill and Landry Jones get a lot of unworthy hype, but as I’ve discussed at length, I wouldn’t take either in the first round. John Schneider was at the Alamo Bowl to watch Griffin take on Washington and in many ways the [...]