The mocks we do here generally look at situations. ‘Who will be available at #25 if a certain team drafts a certain player.’ You know the drill by now.
This weeks projection is different. Sure, there are scenarios we can point to — such as Ziggy Ansah going in the top ten or two quarterbacks going early. But the idea this week is to compare how things look before and after the combine. So I’ve tried to make a projection based on how I see things unfolding in Indianapolis. Who moves up the board. Who falls. We’ll see how accurate it is next week.
There’s no revelation with Seattle’s pick. Several defensive lineman are already off the board. In this projection it basically comes down to how much the Seahawks are determined to fill their biggest need. Is a 25-year-old Sylvester Williams the answer? Or a big body like Johnathan Hankins that offers no pass rush? Or are they more likely to wait until later? It’s not beyond the realms of possibility Jonathan Jenkins drops to #56. Terrance Cody was the 57th pick in 2010. I don’t see any pressure to add a new defensive tackle in round one unless one of the superior interior pass rushers falls to #25.
A few people will groan at the selection of Khaseem Greene and this is the third mock where I’ve had him going to the Seahawks. He ticks a lot of the boxes this team goes for. Turnover machine? Check. High character? Check. Plus athleticism? Check. He also fills a position of need and he’s the kind of ‘not talked about’ player I can just see John Schneider and Pete Carroll drafting in the first. And hey, if they want to improve the pass rush and third down defense — Greene will be an asset in nickel formations (replacing K.J. Wright?), he’s adept covering underneath and sniffing out screens plus he’s a good blitzer.
Improving the defensive line is the greatest need (and free agency could still provide a solution there) but I don’t think this team will fight their draft board. I suspect they’ll take a player they like, not a player they kind of like to fill a superior need. Nobody will be complaining if Greene manages the same kind of impact as Bobby Wagner. Perhaps he’s not a big enough name to get people excited? That shouldn’t matter. He’s a playmaker. Simple as that.
I also wouldn’t rule out the Seahawks re-signing Alan Branch. If they want to keep size up front and avoid a big free agent splash on a Henry Melton or Randy Starks, they might attempt to keep Branch while adding a situational rusher to the rotation via the middle rounds.
One final note before we get into it. Apparently Keenan Allen won’t work out at the combine. It’s not a major surprise — he wasn’t expected to perform particularly well. The thing is, there’s nothing positive about this news. Either it’s another injury complaint (they’re totting up now) or he’s hiding. So while the rest of the media focuses and complains about Matt Barkley not throwing to uncovered receivers in shorts, maybe it’s time to start questioning Keenan Allen’s credentials as the sure-fire first round lock many believe he’s going to be? Kawann Short also won’t work out due to injury and will host a personal pro-day on March 26th.
Cal’s Keenan Allen, projected as a top WR in upcoming draft, is nursing a sprained PCL that will prevent him from working out at combine.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) February 20, 2013
|#1 Luke Joeckel (T, Texas A&M)
They desperately need a quarterback but if Branden Albert’s back issues are legit, this becomes more likely.
|#2 Sharrif Floyd (DT, Florida)
Floyd has a ton of upside. He could play the one or three technique in Gus Bradley’s scheme.
|#3 Dion Jordan (DE, Oregon)
Limitless potential. The combine will be friendly to Dion Jordan.
|#4 Eric Fisher (T, Central Michigan)
If they can’t get at Floyd or Jordan, they might settle for Fisher.
|#5 Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State)
The Lions could use an edge rusher, especially if they lose Cliff Avril.
|#6 Ziggy Ansah (DE, BYU)
May just enough upside to get into this range.
|#7 Matt Barkley (QB, USC)
After the fiasco of 2012, don’t expect Arizona to do anything but draft a quarterback here.
|#8 Geno Smith (QB, West Virginia)
They have some nice pieces in Buffalo but they must find a quarterback.
|#9 Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah)
Good luck stopping a three man front of Lotulelei, Coples and Wilkerson.
|#10 Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri)
|#11 Lane Johnson (T, Oklahoma)
A pure technician.
|#12 Cordarrelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee)
Incredible potential, can have an immediate impact.
|#13 Dee Milliner (CB, Alabama)
The complete cornerback prospect. This would be a steal.
|#14 Chance Warmack (G, Alabama)
This will help Carolina prosper in the run game, which they haven’t done for a while.
|#15 Damontre Moore (DE, Texas A&M)
He needs to flash at the combine.
|#16 Kenny Vaccaro (S, Texas)
Vaccaro would be a nice addition to St. Louis’ defense.
|#17 Kevin Minter (LB, LSU)
This could be Pittsburgh’s biggest need.
|#18 Kawann Short (DT, Purdue)
Monte Kiffin’s defense usually includes a good interior pass rusher.
|#19 D.J. Fluker (T, Alabama)
With a lot of the top defensive players off the board, they could look to the offensive line.
|#20 Jonathan Cooper (G, North Carolina)
Assuming they get a tackle in free agency, this is step two in improving the offensive line.
|#21 Alec Ogletree (LB, Georgia)
Someone will draft this guy in round one. Book it.
|#22 Zach Ertz (TE, Stanford)
Brilliant tight end prospect.
|#23 Jarvis Jones (DE, Georgia)
The spinal stenosis issue could lead to a fall. Someone will take a shot.
|#24 Travis Frederick (G, Wisconsin)
More than anything they need to bolster the offensive line.
|#25 Khaseem Greene (LB, Rutgers)
I can envisage people in Seattle’s front office banging the table for this guy.
|#26 Gavin Escobar (TE, San Diego State)
Donald Driver’s retired, Greg Jennings and Jermichael Finley are free agents. They could go for a pass catcher here.
|#27 DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Clemson)
He’d be a perfect compliment to Andre Johnson.
|#28 Xavier Rhodes (CB, Florida State)
After a rough ride in the playoffs, the Broncos could boost their secondary here.
|#29 Desmond Trufant (CB, Washington)
Cornerback is a need for the Patriots.
|#30 Eddie Lacy (RB, Alabama)
An ideal replacement for the ageing Michael Turner.
|#31 Johnathan Hankins (DT, Ohio State)
More size up front for the Niners.
|#32 Manti Te’o (LB, Notre Dame)
Tough shoes to fill, but the Ravens often look for value in round one.
#33 Jacksonville – Barkevious Mingo (DE, LSU)
#34 Kansas City – Tyler Eifert (TE, Notre Dame)
#35 Philadelphia – Johnthan Banks (CB, Mississippi State)
#36 Detroit – Tavon Austin (WR, West Virginia)
#37 Cincinnati – Stepfan Taylor (RB, Stanford)
#38 Arizona – Menelik Watson (T, Florida State)
#39 New York Jets – Ryan Nassib (QB, Syracuse)
#40 Tennessee – Keenan Allen (WR, California)
#41 Buffalo – Jordan Reed (TE, Florida)
#42 Miami – Blidi Wreh-Wilson (CB, Connecticut)
#43 Tampa Bay – Matt Elam (S, Florida)
#44 Carolina – Jesse Williams (DT, Alabama)
#45 San Diego – Jonathan Jenkins (DT, Georgia)
#46 St. Louis – Larry Warford (G, Kentucky)
#47 Dallas – Alex Okafor (DE, Texas)
#48 Pittsburgh – John Simon (DE, Ohio State)
#49 New York Giants – Sylvester Williams (DT, North Carolina)
#50 Chicago – Dallas Thomas (G, Tennessee)
#51 Washington – Phillip Thomas (S, Fresno State)
#52 Minnesota – Datone Jones (DT, UCLA)
#53 Cincinnati – Arthur Brown (LB, Kansas State)
#54 Miami – Oday Aboushi (T, Virginia)
#55 Green Bay – Giovanni Bernard (RB, North Carolina)
#56 Seattle – Steadman Bailey (WR, West Virginia)
#57 Houston – Mike Glennon (QB, NC State)
#58 Denver – Jonathan Cyprien (S, Florida International)
#59 New England – Robert Woods (WR, USC)
#60 Atlanta – Barrett Jones (C, Alabama)
#61 San Francisco – Markus Wheaton (WR, Oregon State)
#62 Baltimore – Sam Montgomery (DE, LSU)
Projected Seahawks third round pick: Jordan Hill (DT, Penn State)