Monday draft hits: Seahawks still need a quarterback

November 7th, 2011 | Written by Rob Staton

Tarvaris Jackson struggled against Dallas, throwing three picks

Seahawks still hampered by their quarterbacks 

The game against Dallas was there to be won. Take nothing away from the Cowboys, they deserved to win it. However, they’re a team that just can’t get out of it’s own way. They’re stuttering when they should be fluid. In the first half, Seattle had the breaks but couldn’t capitalise. In the second half, all the Cowboys did was iron out a few of the creases and they were barely tested. Why? The Seahawks passing offense couldn’t keep up – it was impotent and turned the ball over. 

Tarvaris Jackson hasn’t been a disaster for the Seahawks this year. Far from it in fact, and I suspect a few of the critics have actually warmed to the guy that provoked a collective groan when it became clear he would be the team’s unchallenged starter this year. Having seen Charlie Whitehurst in the starting role too, it’s clear the right man is playing for this team in 2011. 

However, a performance like the one seen against Dallas just re-emphasises the already obvious need to make a draft splash on a quarterback. If the player you want is out of reach, it’s time to be aggressive – because this team’s development cannot be compromised by getting cute at the most important position in football. 

All three of Jackson’s interceptions were avoidable and while the third may have courted some controversy and debate, the first two were just plain bad. In a game like this against a stuttering Dallas, you need a quarterback who’s going to step up and win you the game. This is the type of meeting where a good quarterback gets you over the finish line – sadly, that quarterback was Tony Romo on Sunday. Say what you want about Romo, he’s still a class above Tarvaris Jackson. 

If you look through Jackson’s career on the whole, he’s always had more turnovers than touchdowns. The exception came in 2008 when he was in and out of the team, starting only five games. In six years he has a total touchdown-to-interception ratio of 30-31, so it’s not really a surprise he’s currently at 6-9 for 2011. Against Dallas he had no excuses – good pass protection, healthy receivers and a running game that suddenly looked productive. The only thing missing was good play from the quarterback.  

The Seahawks have enough talent on their roster to be mildly successful, certainly better than a 2-6 record and being all but out of post-season contention during the first week of November. If all the work so far has been about building the right environment for a quarterback to prosper, it’s time to go all in on finding that player. Put a functional quarterback into this offense and it can win again. Sure, that’s somewhat of a glib remark and maybe stating the obvious – but eventually this team has to bite the bullet on finding that guy. Unfortunately, stop-gaps and re-treads will not get it done. 

The only excuse for not solving this problem is a wave of underclassmen opting to stay in school – your Matt Barkley’s and Robert Griffin’s for example.  

It may be a bit of a dead-horse subject, but it’s going to linger every day until the situation is sorted once and for all. It’ll be 19 years next April since the Seahawks last drafted a quarterback in round one, it cannot be allowed to stretch into a 20th year. 

Landry Jones should stay at Oklahoma? 

Dan Kadar at Mocking the Draft highlights a tweet from Lance Zierlein, suggesting two NFL scouts he’s spoken to believe Landry Jones shouldn’t declare for the draft. I found this interesting, because there’s been little negative reporting on Jones aside from Tony Pauline’s pre-season mid-round grade that has since changed to a first round projection. I’ve been negative about Jones, as evidenced in my review of his performance against Texas A&M this weekend. I wouldn’t draft the guy as I said on Saturday. However, I also don’t see any benefit to him returning to Oklahoma for another year. 

The issues I have with Jones were all on tape last year – he’s not really progressed in 12 months. Part of that is down to the situation he’s in at Oklahoma – he’s basically the conductor of a prolific offense that makes the most of a limited playbook with a high tempo. In order to develop beyond what he is now, he needs to get away from that and start to work within something akin to a pro-style offense. I suspect he’ll be found out at the next level and won’t be able to improvise in the face of trouble – when things break down can he stray from the script? When offered options A, B and C as a pro-quarterback, is he going to be able to move to B or C when A is taken away? I’m not convinced. However, we’ll never know until he actually gets into the NFL and starts working with pro-coaches. 

Another year at Oklahoma will just mean another season with loads of touchdowns and passing yards, but no real technical or physical improvement. I can’t see a situation where his stock improves. The only real positive could be that the 2013 class at quarterback is setting up to be one of the weakest we’ve seen in a long while (unless players like Matt Barkley return for a fourth year at USC) so maybe he capitalises on that? That’s a risky business though, because it only takes one bad injury and the gamble has failed. 

Jones may well be a first round pick next April if he does declare and that should be enough to make his mind up. It’d be an undeserved grade in my view, but such is the desperate need for quarterbacks and given the relatively limited cost in the new rookie pay scale – someone will take their chance. 

Seahawks would pick 7th 

NE Patriots Draft has the updated draft order following the weekend’s games, with the Seahawks picking 7th overall as things stand. They’re tied with Arizona who pick 4th, with five teams sharing a 2-6 record. Miami’s shock win over Kansas City makes it increasingly likely that the Indianapolis Colts will pick first overall, creating an interesting scenario. 

The Colts have an option to avoid a near $30m guaranteed investment in Peyton Manning if they cut him before next April’s draft. The idea of cutting Manning – a franchise icon as well as a brilliant quarterback – would’ve been unthinkable just a few months ago. Having the opportunity to draft the highly rated Luck creates a dilemma though where it has to be considered. 

If the Colts choose to keep (and pay) Manning, they’re likely to expect him to recover and feature for the remaining four years of his contract to put Indianapolis back in Super Bowl contention. Would a bounty of picks for trading the rights to Luck be tempting to aid that push? Or would they look to sit the young quarterback as a long term replacement? That in itself brings about a lot of question marks, namely whether the most high profile college quarterback since John Elway would accept riding the bench for a few years. You also have to wonder whether Manning and the Colts really want a drawn out quarterback controversy, or an amount of nearly $130m invested in two players at the same position. 

All kinds of possibilities exist – Manning becoming a free agent, Luck becoming his heir apparent or Indy potentially trading the pick for a kings ransom. Whatever is most likely at this stage (Indy drafting Luck) it won’t be the foregone conclusion that Miami picking first would’ve provided. 

Speaking of Miami, I just wonder if such an impressive victory over Kansas City will create a spark at that franchise. They have a tough remaining schedule, but they’re also a better team than their record suggests. They are the big threat to quarterback-hungry teams like Seattle, Denver and Washington once Luck leaves the board. 

At the moment, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a situation like this: 

#1 Indianapolis – Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford)
#2 Miami – Quarterback #2 (Barkley? Jones? Griffin?)
#3 St. Louis - Matt Kalil (OT, USC)
#4 Arizona – Offensive tackle #2 (Martin? Reiff?)
#5 Jacksonville - WR for the young quarterback (Blackmon? Jones?)
#6 Carolina – WR #2 for the young quarterback (Blackmon? Jones?) 

With the Seahawks picking 7th overall, they may actually find the quarterback they want falls straight to them barring any moves up the board. Miami’s philosophy on quarterbacks may differ from Seattle’s, creating a situation where the two teams are not chasing the same player. On the other hand, the Seahawks may end up being out in the cold and looking to secondary options. Would they turn to a big playmaker like Trent Richardson (Adrian Peterson was the #7 overall pick previously) or take their pick of the defensive players, none of which have left the board in the scenario above? 

Or alternatively, would they extend their quarterback wish-list to three? I don’t expect Landry Jones to be among the options due to his overall skill set differing from Seattle’s wishes, but what about a player like Robert Griffin III? He still intrigues me enough to stop me ruling out a top-ten pick as being crazy talk, yet he’s also enough of a project to stop me rolling with it. He is the wildcard in all of this, as he fits Seattle’s criteria but is far from ready to start in the NFL. Either way, it may be time to start rooting for the Dolphins to win. With the Seahawks 2-6 and essentially out of the post-season race, they might as well come away with a quarterback of the future next April. 

Robert Griffin III Highlights vs Missouri 

Speaking of Griffin, I’ve been unable to get full tape on his performance in Baylor’s win over Missouri on Saturday. However, I did find this highlights video which runs through some of his big plays. His accuracy and touch on deep throws is the things that excites me the most, but just behind it is his continuing and rapid development. His rise from true freshman-to-redshirt junior has been remarkable, and he keeps getting better if his performance against Texas A&M is anything to go by. As I said above, he’s the wildcard in this process. Against Missouri he had a typically productive day, going 27-41 for 406 passing yards and three touchdowns. He added another score on the ground and didn’t have a turnover. The combination of athletic prowess, leadership, production and proven ability to not turn the ball over will interest Seattle’s front office. 

 

Andrew Luck tape vs Oregon State 

Courtesy of JMPasq, below you’ll find full game tape of Luck’s performance in Saturday’s victory over Oregon State. For the second week in succession we see that Luck is human after all, because this was far from a faultless performance. Fans and scouts have really got themselves into a situation where’s it’s assumed Luck is an impossibly perfect player. That’s far from the truth and I wonder how he’ll deal with his ridiculously high expectations at the next level. From a technique point of view, from a character point of view and from a physical point of view Luck is a rare talent, but he isn’t flawless. Against Oregon State his accuracy was hit and miss, occasionally throwing behind his intended target or just making a bad decision under pressure (see: first interception). Luck struggled a bit last week when USC brought the heat, and this is becoming a trend – it’s an area of his game he has to improve having experienced very little pressure during his time at Stanford. 

However, we shouldn’t over react to this in the same way we shouldn’t assume Luck is perfect. He’s a fine prospect who will be chosen first overall. However, there are still areas he can improve, it’s just that technically he’s far more advanced than most quarterbacks his age. 

52 Responses to “Monday draft hits: Seahawks still need a quarterback”

  1. Will says:

    I really am starting to think that maybe, just maybe, if the Seahawks finish with too many wins to get one of the top QBs (obviously it’ll be a lot clearer once the deadline for underclassmen to declare passes) that they should trade down and grab somebody like DeCastro (though I’m not sure if he’s what Cable is looking for in an o-lineman). They could use a corner and a pass rusher but there’s just no dominant pass rusher that we’ve seen so far and it’s such a deep corner class. Gallery has been just awful is injury prone and not exactly a spring chicken. Carpenter has been struggling, but I don’t think they’ll move him to guard after only one season. What are your thoughts on DeCastro, Rob? Does he deserve the recent hype he’s been getting or what?

    (Also, Matt Kalil’s the USC tackle. Ryan’s already in the NFL. ;) )

    • Rob says:

      De Castro is a great technician, he’s playing well at right guard for Stanford. However, he’s not what I’d call an explosive can’t miss type. The Seahawks can’t draft De Castro. If they want to keep losing football games and drafting offensive lineman, that’s fine. Eventually you have to focus on other areas, that time is now. Rather than trade down, they need to trade up and get their quarterback. Winning teams are not built around spending endless first round picks on the offensive line, they’re won by quarterbacks and playmakers. The Seahawks have as much invested in their OL as any team in the NFL, that area has been addressed now.

      • Nick says:

        I agree with Rob. That and just a few weeks ago it came out that during the draft, Schneider wanted to draft Andy Dalton and Pete overruled him and selected James Carpenter so they could “finish building the offensive line”. He said it himself between the lines: they’re done building it.

        Pretty much every position on the offense is strong with the exception of QB. The defense is stocked with talent and a fair amount of depth, as is the offense. There’s no more waiting: it’s QB time. They MUST do what they’ve got to do to get the QB they want. If that means giving up multiple drafts for Luck or Barkley, it’s something they MUST do.

      • Will says:

        I agree. I was merely pointing out a hypothetical situation. Griffin is really a huge wildcard at this point. He doesn’t have the assurance like Luck or the near-assurance that Barkley or Jones do of being a first round pick. Unlike those three, he could actually benefit from another year in college. If he doesn’t declare then only Luck and Barkley are worth taking in the first round. You mentioned the possibility that they could miss out on both if Indy and Miami end up 1-2 in this very post. I was just referring to what happens if they win too many games, whatever the unlikelihood, to get a player like Claibourne or Richardson. There’s not necessarily another corner or RB who should go in the top 15 or so, so what happens then?

        • Rob says:

          In that scenario they have to be very aggressive to move up the board. They aren’t in a position to sit around and wait for the ideal QB to fall into their laps – the only way to guarantee that is to become the worst team in the NFL and pick first overall. Even then there’s no guarantee a player like Andrew Luck will be available. This regime cannot keep drifting along without a franchise quarterback – if that player is out of reach come April, you go get them, even if it’s costly. I guarantee it’ll be more costly to PC and JS if they just sit there and end up taking Stanford’s right guard with another year gone without a QB.

          As for Griffin – I think he needs to leave Baylor personally. He’s developed tremendously over his four years at Baylor, but eventually the only further improvements you can make are within a pro-playbook with pro-coaching. It’d be a wasted year IMO if he stays at Baylor, another year he could’ve been working on his pro-game. Obviously these guys have to do what’s best for them, not what’s best for the teams. But if he receives a R1 grade from the draft committee, he needs to declare. He’s a wildcard, but a talented one. He’s someone the Seahawks need to look at – as do we – as a possible third option behind Luck/Barkley. Hey – I wouldn’t even rule out Griffin going to Dolphins if they do pick 2nd overall. Who knows – he’s a talented kid.

      • Frank says:

        Who won the first round O-line request raffle.lol

  2. Nick says:

    I know it’s improbable: but if Barkley doesn’t declare, the Seahawks are so screwed. I don’t have high hopes for getting Barkley, but getting the third guy is better than getting the fourth.

    • Rob says:

      I suspect if the Seahawks are picking in the top eight, they will have a decent shot at Barkley. Not everyone is as high on him as perhaps I am – he isn’t a can’t miss physical prospect. To me overall he’s a can’t miss QB prospect – which matters more – but not every team thinks that way. Seattle just needs to pick in the top few selections to have their shot.

  3. Neil says:

    Worst case scenario if Luck/Barkley/Jones aren’t there. They can shoot for Tannehil/Foles/Moore in the top of the 2nd round. And even worst case scenario, if the Hawks really wanted to, try and make a deal with New England to get Ryan Mallet, I mean they did work him out in Seattle and probably would have taken him in the 3rd round last year had the Pats not have taken him just a couple picks before the Hawks. Just saying.

    • Rob says:

      Foles and Moore are late round picks in my eyes (and many others, to be fair). They will not go in round two. Tannehill might do, but the Seahawks can’t invest their future in Ryan Tannehill. Again, just my view – he’s more likely to ever make it than Foles or Moore (who have almost no chance) but this isn’t a situation where Seattle can wait until round two and settle for second tier players.

      Also – I know for a fact Ryan Mallett wasn’t even on Seattle’s draft board. He wasn’t an option for the Seahawks.

  4. diehard82 says:

    Rob, I think it is entirely plausible that Barkley returns for a bowl eligible Sr. year at USC, like Locker did. And I read recently that Griffin III has already finished his Bachelor degree, is getting his masters now, and wants to do one year of law school next year before turning pro in 2013. If those both happen, and Seattle can’t offer enough to get the #1 pick, they can try to trade down or just take the best player available. At 7, who would you like that to be? If you had to choose a non-QB at 7, who would you choose knowing what you know now?

    I look at a draft pick as a 10 year decision. You are hoping the guy can be a part of the teams success for 10 years. That means NOT picking a guy simply because he is the best player available at a position of perceived immediate need. I do not dislike Lynch or Forsett, but for me that guy would be Trent Richardson. He would be an upgrade over Lynch and Carroll commented that Lynch’s back issues have been there since they acquired him. And I do think the O-line is pretty set for a couple more years. We just need a succession plan for Gallery.

    That would likely mean riding TJ for another year, but drafting any QB other than Luck or Barkley probably wouldn’t change that. I could see Tannehill slipping to the top of the 2nd round like Dalton and Kaepernick. So for me, if no Luck or Barkley in 2012, then Richardson and Tannehill.

    • Rob says:

      Hi Diehard82,

      I can see a situation where Barkley goes back to USC for the Bowl game possibility, but I also think there’s nothing left for him there other than that. Unlike Locker, he’s a polished, established three year starter who has improved year upon year. Locker basically had one good year under Sarkisian and decided to go back again for the chance of a Bowl. Barkley has proven everything he needs to – and he’s got the strong resume. Griffin has looked at Law school, but is said to be split and will likely make a decision at the end of the year. We have to remember, this is a guy who was getting mid-to-late round grades during the summer – he will probably have expected to return to Baylor. A lot has changed since then, with Griffin’s play taking a giant leap forward.

      I don’t disagree that drafting a quarterback is a ten year (and longer) plan, but I think you can get too bogged down waiting for the perfect player too. Seattle will have to become the worst team in the NFL to ever have a shot at an Andrew Luck and in the team’s history they’ve never achieved that. I’m a big fan of Trent Richardson, but this team needs a quarterback. I look at the possible class for 2013, and it’s petrifying. If Barkley and Griffin both declare, I’ve not seen a R1 2013 eligible round one quarterback so far. The Seahawks are going to have to be aggressive, because this time next year the fans won’t accept another 2-6 having dodged the issue again.

      As for Tannehill – I’m not a fan at all. I don’t think he’ll be slipping to the top of round two – that’s his peak level for me based only on athletic potential. The Seahawks can’t keep fudging this issue – there ae quarterbacks available this year in Luck, Barkley and Griffin if he keeps going at the current pace. Be aggressive, get your guy and end the issue. Trent Richardson should only be in the equation if every avenue is exhausted to move up and the top QB’s are gone.

  5. Don says:

    I prefer trading up to get Barkley, but if Miami likes Barkley then they wont give up their #2 spot. WIth Luck and Barkley gone in the first two picks, that leaves only one option and that is trading up to get the #3 draft pick for the #3 Qb. If Seattle does not trade up, Denver, Washington, or Cleveland, would probably trade up for that QB.

    The perfect scenereo would be to lose the rest of the games and somehow get the #2 pick for Barkley, and draft a stud break away threat RB in the second round (another DeMarco Murry, 3 rd draft pick last year).

    How likely would it be for seattle to duplicate what Cincinnati did last year, draft the best WR in round 1(in Seattle’s case the best RB Richardson) , and a franchise QB in the round 2?

    • Don says:

      It would be better to pick the franchise QB in round 1, and a stud RB in round 2.

      • Rob says:

        I’m not a fan of settling for quarterbacks in round two. The top guys go in round one these days – and as much as I like Dwight Jones there isn’t an AJ Green caliber receiver out there to make an average QB like Andy Dalton look better than he really is.

        • pacificsands says:

          “an average QB like Andy Dalton look better than he really is”

          - Kidding me with this, Rob? I’m the guy who told you that you’d hear from me on Moore in a year, and you’re hearing from me on Dalton now. Normally your evaluation is objective, thoughtful, and impressive, but you have a blind spot when it comes to accurate, aware passers with small-time arms and little physical talent. (Setting aside that you’re high on Barkley, who has poor physical abilities)

          Weak arms may not be great in the NFL, but while Dalton (and Moore) don’t have cannons, they throw hard enough. Through eight games, Dalton is 158-257, 61.5%, 1696 yards, 6.6 YPC, 12 TD, 7 Int, 12 Sacks. For a rookie, that’s astronomical. Setting aside what Cam Newton has done for the moment, which is also quite exceptional, Dalton has already outplayed the best rookie quarterback seasons in recent memory (Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan).

          A.J. Green is a fantastic playmaker, but Dalton is spreading it around. 40 of Dalton’s 158 catches have gone to Green, or roughly 25%. For comparison, 46 of Newson’s 174 passes have gone to Steve Smith (roughly 26%), 48 of Rodgers’ 192 (25%) to Jennings, 39 of Cassel’s 197 (26%) to Bowe, 43 of Ryan’s 168 (25%) to Roddy White, 47 of Stafford’s 183 (25%) to Calvin. Dalton is throwing to Green no more than other quarterbacks throw to their playmaking wide receivers – in fact, how correlated it is is pretty shocking.

          The Seahawks DID ignore a franchise QB in the 2011 draft, as you deride them for – that guy was Dalton, and you can bet your ass they’d take him if they had the chance again. (I also agree they made a huge error by passing on Mallett, but that’s a different story).

          I also completely agree that the seahawks must draft a quarterback in the first round of 2012, regardless of the situation, or be relegated to irrelevancy, and agree that Luck, Barkley and Griffin are probably head and shoulders above anyone available this year. Nonetheless, it isn’t worth the year of losing. The decision not to draft Dalton was a huge error, and ignoring quarterbacks that fit a similar description limits a comprehensive review of the available signal-callers.

          • mattlock3 says:

            You can keep your effective, decent QB.

            I’ll take an elite game-changer, please.

          • Rob says:

            Well it’s far too soon to be crowning Andy Dalton – people made that mistake with AJ Green. Look – the guy can play, but his ceiling is lower than you think. This is the Andy Dalton we’ll see in five years, and pretty soon teams are going to start working him out. Let’s see how he does against Baltimore and Pittsburgh, and let’s see if in 2-3 years whether the Browns fans are wanting more at the position.

            As for the way I judge quarterbacks – well as you say I’m not blinded by a particular type. I didn’t rate Dalton coming in and I still think given time he’ll prove to be a pretty average player. You don’t draft average quartebacks in round one and I disagree that the Seahawks would do anything different if they could go back. If Andy Dalton leads Cincy to a decade of success I’ll be the first to admit I’m wrong, but I don’t think I will be. Great start, let’s see what happens for the guy.

            And I’ll say this now – however low I am on Dalton, Kellen Moore is a whole new level of low. I look forward to discussing him in a year.

  6. Jeff says:

    Don’t know what Nick’s talking about.

    He must misread something. If it came out that Schneider wanted Dalton and was overruled, this would be HUGE NEWS and not just slip through the cracks.

    This would’ve been a national story. Sorry man, you got your facts mistaken unless you talked to Schneider himself.

  7. Mark says:

    If your predicted 1-6 goes like above what about Quinton Coples (DE, UNC)? I know the QB need is high, but a good pass rusher is also high on the need list. Any other DL possibilities in top 10?

    • Rob says:

      Coples is over rated as a consensus top-10 pick – I doubt he’ll be in that range come April. He’s had a disappointing season and it’s hard to figure out exactly what his position will be at the next level. It’s a big down year for DL’s, I’m struggling to find away worthy of a top-10 grade and I doubt that will change in the remaining few weeks of CFB.

  8. darnell says:

    Dalton would be nice and he would seem good right now. But he is the type of QB you will always be looking to upgade from. Just decent.

    You take a RT at 25 and there’s a chance he’ll be a top-tier RT, you take Dalton or Kaepernick and you have a mid-tier starter that’ll leave you wanting more.

  9. Misfit74 says:

    I think both the Panthers and Jaguars have to consider Jeffery and Blackmon. The Cardinals and Rams both have to consider either top Offensive Tackle. I haven’t checked out a mock draft in a couple months, but did today. This coincides with Rang and Co.’s latest – and makes a lot of sense. Both have Landry Jones going early first-round, as the consensus 3rd QB off the board, IIRC. It will be interesting to see if any defensive players rise up and into the top-5 or top-10 conversation. It’s exciting to think we (Seattle) may have a shot at a top-5 pick and QBOTF. I still have in the back of my mind the name Matt Flynn – not that I’m advocating or supporting that potential move (he is a FA in 2012), but given Schnieder’s history, It’s a thing to consider.

    • Rob says:

      Has to be remembered that Rang and co also had Colt McCoy as a top ten pick around this time a couple of years ago (going to Seattle, no less).

      Jeffery isn’t going to be a high pick, he’s had a disappointing year and doesn’t look like an exceptional can’t miss receiver. Dwight Jones is the guy to keep an eye on – the complete package. As for Flynn – Green Bay only spent a 7th rounder on the guy and it’s not like Schneider is going to push for every player the Packers ever drafted. It’s a link we’re only making due to a tenuous link – Flynn doesn’t look like a great fit IMO.

      • Misfit74 says:

        I agree that Jeffery is getting more press than he’s meriting. He currently profiles similar to BMW (current version), but that could change. I’m just not convinced he can consistently get separation at the NFL level. He may be too slow and lack the well-rounded game of some of the other (not so gigantic) WRs coming out.

        I think Flynn will get play this off-season. Learning in that system if he has the skill-set to match, there could be something there. It’s not just the SEA-GB link – QBs can be found many ways and of the available FA QBs, Flynn is one to watch. I mean, people are touting FA Bobby Hoyer for goodness sakes (not interested!).

        I also am very high on Dwight Jones, and have been following him for some time – and certainly more since you mentioned him awhile back as one to keep an eye on. He’s done nothing but impress (also an appearance on Rang’s 1st-round board, strangely enough). I’m curious where guys like Toon and Sanu grade out in your book? 2nd-3rd rounders? What about Fuller or Floyd?

  10. Ryan says:

    The nepatriotsdraft website lists the Hawks at #7. They have a 2-6 record, shared with four other teams (ARZ, MIN, JAC, CAR), with IND, STL, and MIA all ahead of them.

    Isn’t the draft order tiebreak calculated using strength-of-schedule, with the worst SOS picking first? According to this (http://www.fftoday.com/nfl/sos.htm) SOS chart, I get the following order:

    1. Colts 0-9 (.520 SOS)
    2. Rams 1-7 (.477)
    3. Dolphins 1-7 (.516)
    4. Cardinals 2-6 (.441)
    5. Seahawks 2-6 (.488)
    6. Vikings 2-6 (.516)
    7. Jaguars 2-6 (.520)
    8. Panthers 2-6 (.555)

    Where am I wrong here?

    Though the #5 pick sounds better than the #7 pick, it still doesn’t solve the problem of the Dolphins taking Barkley.

    • shiva1008 says:

      That chart is using the SOS based on 2010 wins and losses, whereas the Patriots is using the 2011 SOS to-date (or should be). Looks like the ‘Hawks have slightly more losing teams in the second half of their schedule so that SOS factor might improve as the season goes on.

      • Ryan says:

        Oops. Thanks.

        Yeah, our SOS should fall as the season continues. But we could also sneak through a couple more wins against ARZ and STL as well.

    • mattlock3 says:

      That list is for the 2010 season.

  11. Mo says:

    This draft order doesn’t mean a ton with the sheer number of games these top 7 teams play against each other.

    I have a tough time seeing the Colts finishing winless. And if they do somehow pull that off it means by default the Panthers will have an additional win and the Jaguars will have two more wins which pushes the Seahawks higher up. The Colts likely will win at least one of those 3 games, and that’s not counting them potentially pulling off an upset in either the Tennessee or Houston game (both at home). I feel like they’ll end up a 2 win team.

    It seems, based on remaining schedule, that Miami is still in the drivers seat (one of the two Buffalo games or the Washington game at home in week 10 are the best shots they have of winning) followed by whoever emerges from the NFC West – if any of the Seahawks, Cardinals, and Rams lose their remaining games against the the other two they’ll have a lock on top 3 and quite possibly #1 since the NFC West dominates in strength of schedule suckage tiebreakers.

    My feeling: I really think it’s going to come down to the Rams/Seahawks games. Unless they split one of them very well could be #1.

    • Matt J says:

      Mo! Thanks for making the point nobody seems to be making — the Colts have some weak opposition coming up, they have some great playmakers on offense, Painter has to get more and more comfortable and hungry for a win, and it is VERY difficult to go winless in the NFL. We could easily end up with a bunch of two win teams huddled together at the bottom of the pack. If Seattle is among them (though I can’t believe we won’t split w/ St. Louis), our strength of schedule will crush others given the NFC West opponents that still await. We could conceivably move up in this thing, perhaps above Indy.

  12. kevin mullen says:

    Is RG3 game 1 ready? Obviously Luck and Barkley are but not too sure about Griffin. That would mean another half season of TJack then to Griffin3, possibly another top10 pick in 2013, yikes!

    I’d almost rather trade the farm for Luck if we’re only a few picks behind Indy, possibly being in the top5 should soften the ransom rather than coming from the 20′s up. Looking at the roster, we have most of our starters planted for the next few seasons, all we’re missing is pass rush and QB.

    • Jim says:

      I think RG3 could step right in from day one. He has a great arm. As for trading up, we got way too many needs to trade away picks. Over the next few years we need QB, two CBs, two DL, another OL, two RBs, the list is endless.

  13. Doug says:

    The main problem I see is that we are going to beat St Louis twice, and we will beat Arizona too. And, we will probably beat the Redskins. As much as I want to draft our QBOTF, I sincerely doubt we will be drafting in the top ten… We will have to outbid the Clevlands-Redskins for a serious trade-up.
    That’s how I see it …

  14. Hawkspur says:

    I hope and pray that you’re not running the same headline on Monday April 30th 2012.

  15. Reuben says:

    Rob,

    I don’t know if anyone has talked about this yet, but isn’t it a 4 year contract from rookies under the new wage scale? If so, that would make Luck and Manning have the same amount of years on their contracts if Indy drafts first. I just can’t imagine the Colts having two qb’s under contract for $130 million without one getting a chance to play regularly. If Indy has the first pick I think they have to either cut Peyton or trade the pick away. What are your thoughts?

  16. Ralphy says:

    Rob. Where do you stand on Austin Davis now? I was under the impression you thought he was a good second tier guy who might be a round two option. Have you changed your opinion on him? Weren’t the Hawks scouting him? I’m trying to stay excited about at least one second tier guy!

  17. Colin says:

    Pete Carroll’s job security rides on drafting a quarterback in April. He doesn’t draft one, Hawks do poorly in 2012, Carroll is gone. Simple as that. He must show ownership he really knows what he is doing. I love what he’s done, but you cannot be successful with a great QB.

  18. Jim J says:

    Has anyone watched tape on Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State? I’m curious about him.

    • Ralphy says:

      I am a huge Brandon Weeden fan and I think he would be a first round lock if he wasn’t 28 years old. Todd Monklen (Ok State OC) said he is the best QB he has ever coached and he has spent several years in the NFL. Watch the throws he makes and tell me who else in college can make them? Maybe two other guys in my opinion.

      • mattlock3 says:

        Not necessarily disagreeing with you, but here’s a grain of salt to take with the “best QB ever coached” statement from Monken. The QB’s he has coached:

        Rick Mirer
        Kevin McDougal
        Michael Armour
        Charlie Batch
        Maxie Causey
        Luke McCown
        Brian Stallworth
        Josh Fields
        Michael Cox
        Aso Pogi
        Jamie Beeghley
        Donovan Woods
        JaMarcus Russell
        Matt Flynn
        Ryan Perrilloux
        Jarrett Lee
        Andrew Hatch
        Jordan Jefferson
        David Garrard
        Trent Edwards
        Todd Bouman
        Clint Chelf

        Not an outstanding list, so calling Weeden the best is almost damning with faint praise.

        • Misfit74 says:

          Hilarious. Good point.

          • Ralphy says:

            That’s a great list. I would love to see the rounds those guys were drafted in because I see a first overall, a second overall, a second rounder and a backup that every third writer on here seems to want to hear Rob say is the guy the Hawks will trade for this offseason.

  19. Dave says:

    Here’s my question.

    Suppose Seattle drafts 8th. Luck (Indy), Barkley (Miami) and RGIII (somebody trades up) are off the board. What would YOU do if you were Seattle’s GM? (Honestly curious–not intended as a “gotcha”.) That scenario does not seem implausible.

    Do you explore the trade/FA market? If so, who are some targets?

    I agree with you. Seattle has to get a QB. Yet, they’re a lot like major league starting pitching. Everybody needs some, but it’s always in short supply.

    • Jim J says:

      This summer I thought that Pete Caroll was going to get a free agent QB. Someone tested by fire and proven in the heat of battle. Little did I know it would be Tavaris! Ha ha.

      After seeing the number of draft picks or money given up in the Kolb and Palmer trades – I think we better stick to the draft. If we are down to the fourth QB on the board we might consider drafting two QBs and see who plays better at the pro level. The QBs that are 6 foot and under will go late if at all.

      • Veilside says:

        If indeed Indy ends up drafting Luck, then what do you think of the scenario of trading whatever is necessary to get Manning, and draft Griffin to sit and learn behind him?

        I highly doubt Indy would sit either Luck or Manning so I honestly think Manning would be available. The only question would be whether the 2012 1st would be required in trade or whether Griffin would fall to the 2nd round.