As usual, some thoughts before getting into the mock…
— Listening to Pete Carroll and John Schneider earlier, it felt like they used their press conference to emphasise their desire to trade down. Tony Pauline mentioned to us yesterday that league sources have told him the Seahawks prefer to move down (which would suggest they’ve put the word out to other teams). It won’t be a surprise if an aim is to get as many picks as possible in this deep draft.
— Increasingly I think O-line will be the first pick. The two gaping holes at tackle feel like a tell. They started their initial build by drafting a tackle (Russell Okung).
— Trevor Penning, like it or not, fits the Seahawks. I wrote about it in more detail here and here. He’s an explosive tester, which they like. He’s an incredible athlete. His size/length profile matches Andrew Whitworth and Rob Havenstein in LA. They might trade down a few spots first but I just get the sense, as of today, that he might be their top pick.
— The other thought I keep coming back to is whether Pete Carroll will just be so enamoured by the blue-chip potential of Derek Stingley Jr. Is it an intriguing, tempting opportunity for a coach like Carroll? And after years of singling out their inability to pick as early as #9 — will they take the chance to draft a player who typically wouldn’t be available to them? Plus there’s Carroll’s connection to Ed Orgeron. It certainly feels very likely he’s leant on his contacts this off-season (including, of course, the Kiffin’s at Ole Miss).
— John Schneider mentioning the ‘Jake Locker/Christian Ponder’ QB class of 2011 felt like a comparison to this QB class (even though it wasn’t a direct comparison, he was talking about quarterbacks going earlier than expected). If it was an accidentally on purpose comparison, he’d be right to make it.
— This time I’m only doing a first round projection. I need the weekend to think about round two. I didn’t want to over complicate things with loads of trades either. I will probably do two more mock drafts which will include a full Seahawks seven round projection and my final mock for Huddle Report scoring.
#1 Jacksonville — Travon Walker (DE, Georgia)
#2 Detroit — Aidan Hutchinson (DE, Michigan)
#3 Houston — Ikem Ekwonu (G, NC State)
#4 NY Jets — Jermaine Johnson (DE, Florida State)
#5 NY Giants — Kayvon Thibodeaux (DE, Oregon)
#6 Carolina — Evan Neal (G, Alabama)
#7 NY Giants — Charles Cross (T, Miss. State)
#8 Atlanta — Sauce Gardner (CB, Cincinnati)
#9 Houston (v/SEA) — Derek Stingley Jr (CB, LSU)
#10 New York Jets — Garrett Wilson (WR, Ohio State)
#11 Washington — Kyle Hamilton (S, Notre Dame)
#12 Minnesota — Trent McDuffie (CB, Washington)
#13 Seattle (v/HOU) — Trevor Penning (T, Northern Iowa)
#14 Baltimore — Jordan Davis (DT, Georgia)
#15 Philadelphia — George Karlaftis (DE, Purdue)
#16 New Orleans — Jameson Williams (WR, Alabama)
#17 LA Chargers — Chris Olave (WR, Ohio State)
#18 Philadelphia — Devin Lloyd (LB, Utah)
#19 New Orleans — Kenny Pickett (QB, Pittsburgh)
#20 Pittsburgh — Malik Willis (QB, Liberty)
#21 New England — Zion Johnson (G, Boston College)
#22 Green Bay — Drake London (WR, USC)
#23 Arizona — Tyler Smith (T, Tulsa)
#24 Dallas — Treylon Burks (WR, Arkansas)
#25 Buffalo — Quay Walker (LB, Georgia)
#26 Tennessee — Andrew Booth (CB, Clemson)
#27 Tampa Bay — Kyler Gordon (CB, Washington)
#28 Green Bay — Travis Jones (DT, Connecticut)
#29 Kansas City — Kaiir Elam (CB, Florida)
#30 Atlanta (v/KC) — Desmond Ridder (QB, Cincinnati)
#31 Cincinnati — Devonte Wyatt (DT, Georgia)
#32 Detroit — Nakobe Dean (LB, Georgia)
Other notes
— I can’t decide whether the Seahawks are going to look at Tyler Linderbaum as someone they can’t leave the draft without or whether they’re just going to carry on rolling at center. The Rams have plugged guys in with their blocking scheme. The Seahawks might be prepared to do the same (although, as we’ve seen, they’ve had issues doing that in the past). Austin Blythe knows the calls. Yet the way they talked about his size and wrestling background just screamed ‘hedge for Linderbaum’. He is a five-star version of Blythe. So if you want that type of player, why wouldn’t you go up from #40 and ensure you get him?
— Equally if they do go O-line first it might be that they simply take the best two defensive players available at #40 and #41. The two best available defensive players could include Boye Mafe and Lewis Cine — who both had official visits to Seattle recently.
— Hosting Cine was interesting. Some of these late visits have been quite indicative over the years. It’s a hard sell to spend another high pick on a safety, given how much they’ve already splurged and the relative depth on the roster at the position. The Seahawks also had Damontae Kazee in for a visit, they’ve had a zoom meeting with Kyle Hamilton and they’ve had three other safety’s visit the VMAC. This article emphasises how Sean Desai used a lot of three-safety looks as defensive coordinator in Chicago. But you already have Ryan Neal and Marquise Blair. They must be doing all of this for a reason, though.
— For what it’s worth Cine is one of the 20 best players in the draft for me. He has 4.37 speed, he’s a forceful hitter and his read/react ability on the field is frankly sensational. He’s a player who had to grow up quickly after becoming a father at 17. He’s a tremendous talent. It’s just so hard to rally behind yet another high pick at safety. I can’t see how he would last to #40/41 either.
— I still think running back in round three. I still think it’ll be Dameon Pierce, too.
— I’d like to come out of this draft feeling really good about an area of the team. It’s why I’ve advocated for drafting Zion Johnson and Tyler Linderbaum. If nothing else you’d have a great interior O-line capable of delivering a terrific running game. That, to me, would be a building block. And it’s how you want to play. I fear instead they’ll try to fill holes and won’t come away with a unit to build around. I liked their early emphasis on the O-line in 2010/11. It produced mixed results but as we saw with the Cowboys recently — having a great O-line can produce. They had Tyron Smith of course but they also invested in Zack Martin and Travis Frederick. Smith isn’t in this draft. Martin and Frederick might be.
— Today was the first day I thought Duane Brown might not return to Seattle. When asked about his possible return, Schneider’s face was a picture. It seems he wants more than Seattle is willing to pay and we’ve been here before. We’ve seen this song and dance. It never ends well.
If you missed it yesterday check out my interview with Tony Pauline…
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My read of the press conference was also that LT is likely their first pick, and it’ll probably be Trevor Penning. Very much not my preference, but he does have some upside and if they are able to trade down to get another decent pick they’ll still be plenty of talent available to add some real impact players. So it’s not completely miserable.
Having just said that though… Man, that would be a real shame to use our best pick in years on a guy like Penning. He feels entirely like the same kind of guy theyve drafted in the late first recently with little success.
The last part is way too accurate. Carpenter. Ifedi.
Agreed.
I like Trevor Penning but he’s not someone who gets my juices flowing that early in the draft.
If only Jermaine Johnson’s stock hadn’t risen so darn much.
I feel the same.
Penning as the player for the premium compensation for trading Russ is underwhelming, to say the least.
More and more I’m hoping they stay at #9 and take best player… probably Stingley.
Give yourself a shot at an elite talent.
Then just resign Brown for goodness sake.
they throw around money like it’s candy at certain guys (Dissley), but then dig their heels in with others.
Signing Brown wouldn’t preclude them from drafting a tackle at some point… but it would mean they wouldn’t have to force it.
💯
Why were they listening to German language lessons in the film room yesterday? Because they were watching German speaking left tackle Bernhard Raimann film?
Not ruling it out.
It’s because of the Munich game, clearly.
Does Raimann speak German..? Maybe that’s what they were referring to. Huge TEF guy right?
Ha! Thought the same thing, I was like did they start the draft clues early?? Not gonna lie, learning German as background sound to work sounds kinda awful! Maybe it was arts and crafts day putting the draft board together.
I think it was a hint that they’re playing in the Munich game
He’s an Austrian, he must speak German. I hope we look for someone else though.
The other idea that’s been floated is they know they’re one of the teams playing in Munich this fall.
Isn’t Aaron Donkor still signed for this year? From the International program?
On the 3 safety thing, I posted after the Kazee visit that I could be pretty excited about the move if it indicated this schematic shift, because I think it would provide opportunities to run the Fangio scheme with Adams used creatively to his skill set. And I really like Cine.
However continuing to pour resources into that position in the draft is overkill, the role as a 3rd safety is a role you should be trying to fill cheaply and without major draft resources. We have bigger needs with those top 50 picks.
I din’t think we are looking at a third safety.
I think they are looking at A safety.
Still no word on Adams recovery. There were what, three safeties injured last year. Plus pete’s favorite position seems to be safety.
I agree with this. Both safeties recovering from significant injuries, one a repeat injury, is hardly being set at the position. Blair and Neal are at best rotational pieces. I think it’s a position of need even if it leaves a bad taste in the mouth because of the resources they’ve thrown at it in the last few years.
I have a healthy respect for Lewis Cine the prospect though. You could make the argument he’s BPA at 40. if he was to last that long.
That’s just it none of us wish they had bungled safety so badly but if Cine balls out in tge end I won’t care. Would be nice to have someone really good and if JA ever gets back to what pete hoped for even better.
Sigh
Using the 2010 building blueprint, LT with the first pick and a ballhawking S with the second.
As long as they nail 4-5 picks, I don’t care what they draft.
Will be really interesting to see where Linderbaum and Jurgens go.
Crunched the numbers of where the first two centers have been drafted going back six years. The average spot was #48.
Hopefully penning were he to be the pick isn’t a guard in the end. But he fits and leaving big holes has become the Seattle way.
I like Cine quite a bit and think pete would as well. Though and it hurts to say this I think center should be the priority over a second dedender. I get what tje rams do plugging and playing. We’re not the rams. If we were we’d be stacking wr’s playing a brand of ball very different to pete’s ethos. Just run the rock.
The presser seemed pretty clear they are “stuck,” with Lock and Geno. I get the sentiment about not sleeping on him. Sorry he’s just a bog standard qb. At least make his life as easy as possible.
I’m not opposed to Lindy he’s a fine C prospect. It’s just that I think Jurgens is better. Kinda like what Tony P said about Jurgens is a little longer a little stronger.
And to be honest, I think I like Zion Johnson more than Penning. I’m not convinced Penning sticks at RT he might have to start inside.
Said it before and will say til i no longer follow football.
Would rather a reach for a player were they good/ great at their position, not grossly so but a few spots, then a project pick who is high because of the lack of banes at the position.
Were it me I’d just take Zion Johnson at #13 a few spots high then penning.
Get Cine at #40 and even if you might recoup a fifth by trying to trade down I’d ratger see Jurgens at #41 then chance he’s there at say #50.
Pundits would give that a big fat “F.” But I don’t care if they almost immediately revamp the oline and get to running again.
The combination of the lis franc and SEA’s history of blown first picks may well make Stingley too risky for them at #9.
Whining about the unfairness of the cuteness rap about not having any top ten picks notwithstanding, Schneider is under a lot of pressure to get that first pick right. Which is why I can’t see them using the #13–if that’s where they trade down to—on an RT, especially when there better players available at bedrock positions. My fear is that they will resort to old bad habits, decide that Penning is their guy, and keep trading down. Tricky maneuvering doesn’t mean much if you pass on a good player and wind up with the second comings of Nick Vannett and Lano Hill.
Nakobe Dean at 32? Hmmm……I’ll refrain from saying more.
I bet Stingley goes outside of the top 10 and whoever’s lap he falls into will end up with a great player.
What round if any will they look at a QB?
Also, do you think the Hawks will look at a kicker? If so what round? Cade York??
Mid/late for QB
Very unlikely on a kicker. They love Myers.
Didn’t Meyers underperform last year?
And they still really like him
What makes you think that other than the usual platitudes? He seems like an obvious cut candidate. If you could get a replacement in the 7th, awesome.
Completely agree, but if you’re competing it’s probably not worth the few million in savings.
I would be making a lot more cuts and trades if I were in charge… but then I would have actually signed a building block to speed up the rebuild so I guess cap spending doesn’t matter all that much. They’re not gonna bring back Duane because they “don’t have the money” wrapped up in a rb, kicker, center, etc.
I worry how much players don’t want to come to Seattle. Is that why we have to pay guys like Blythe a relative premium…
They have constantly gone above and beyond to praise him
People expecting them to cut Myers are wasting their time
Yup…but “second chances”…🙄
Would LOVE to see a kicker taken on day 3. Kick Myers to the curb the same way they did with Jon Ryan a few years back. Some folks laugh at the thought of drafting a kicker…if you draft a good one, they are absolutely worth it!
Two words: Evan MacPherson!
I’m team cut Myers and draft a kicker or sign a guy like Josh Lambo. I’m not convinced there is a huge difference between Myers and a FA kicker. Some Myers and Gabe Jackson cap space would look real nice on a short term FA OT.
That said, I strongly doubt the Seahawks do it. They moved on from Hauschka over money and then really struggled with kickers for a few years afterwards. I still think replacing Hauschka with Blair Walsh was good process bad results (horrible terrible painful memories bad results). I think they are gun shy to try to save a couple million on a kicker again.
Will we look back on passing on Stingley like the passes on Chubb and Taylor for example or Watt?
If they ho penning instead. Probably. Big if he balls out at LT then no. If he’s a future pick a new spot on the line every year candidate….then there’s going to be quite of few players they miss on.
I LIKE the top two CBS but I think this is a draft where a really good one can be had in the middle rounds. I don’t like Stingley’s injury history, and Sauce G will be a top 6 pick.
I agree that they want to acquire as many picks as possible and they should.
But, to beat a dead horse, why not deal DK then?
Feels like they are indecisive and now another top end WR is possibly on the market (Deebo).
DK is a stud. But, who is throwing him the ball this year? Next year? That’s 50 million and
2 years into his new deal. Who’s blocking at both OT positions to even get him the ball?
Would hurt to see him go but this team isn’t close and it’s a classic case of buy low/ sell high.
The next two years wouldn’t cost nearly that.
https://seahawksdraftblog.com/the-future-of-d-k-metcalf-in-seattle
I ran multiple PFN mocks and, wow, are the Chargers eager to trade.
It became a ridiculous exercise when I did two concurrent mocks, netting Jermaine Johnson at 9 in one and then the next had Trevon Walker at 9. Both simulations allowed me to grab Wyatt at 40 and any number of stud LB’s at 41.
My favorite trade offer was from DC. The 9 for their 11 PLUS their 2023 first rounder.
The mocks are good fun, but a complete fantasy.
Looks good Rob.
[q] Trade of RW judged by picks, draft picks pan out, cross your mind pressure?
JS: Yeah, excitement of it. Coaches getting hands on new players, accentuating strengths. Excitement to it.
PC: Outsiders look at numbers in past, we look at where they can go under our guidance. Exciting part of this, project forward, base evaluations down the road. Put our own touch and draw out things in guys.
JS: Excitement knowing how Pete effects people, staff and players. Cool thing to see to see how they perform and project.
PC: We’re looking for what we think they can do for our own team. Includes way we look at particular player. Looking for something special. Not stick in a box or style. Enhance what they bring.—————————-
I think this part of the conversation totally puts Stingley as a top choice. We need HOF players to win the Super Bowl, not just Pro Bowlers.(Definitely not average starters). Stingley is that elite talent that PC can see and think he will make him a super star. Almost like his down years make him even more appealing to Pete.
This would be great. I’m jaded, sadly.
The difficulty of being s Seahawks fan is spending every offseason thinking this will be the year that Pete and John see the light and go back to a reasoned approach to free agency and the draft. This blog has been the best approach for the Seahawks to take, to get rid of the puzzling picks, the reaches, the overthinking and the “We know our guys” overdrafts. Yet, year after year this front office defaults to minimizing risk and trading valuable, higher picks for a range of mid to lower round picks and end up drafting what turns out to be just a bunch of guys. They occasionally hit on a pick but nowhere near enough to justify their philosophy. If we had a front office that actually thought like Rob and the readers of this group, I would thoroughly endorse the trade down philosophy but we don’t have that and haven’t for some time.
The Seahawks have traded Wilson and released Wagner, if there was ever a time to hit refresh and take chances, this is it. Draft Stingley at #9, trade up if you can get Johnson, build that offensive or defensive line and finish the job next year. Just don’t get lost in the quantity over quality, low risk drafting black hole that do defines this front office. I’m hoping, for yet another year, this will happen. I suspect, for another year, it won’t.
💯
The lis franc will probably scare them off of Stingley at #9. There have been a few young CBs that had lis franc—they missed a lot of games and had short careers. Given their spotty history with initial draft picks and the Russell trade, PCJS are under a lot of pressure to get this one right. Whether they trade up, down, or stay put, I look for them to draft a player with minimal red flags and who they think can play right away.
Personally I would be fine with Penning at 13, not so sure about 9. He would fill a hole and it wouldnt feel like a reach for me.
The comments on Carson were pretty gloomy. It sounded like they’re not excited about citing him to play and has a long way to go.
I expected expect an RB picked no later than R4 and will disappointed if they don’t.
Rob, what did you project we’d get from the Texans to move back to #12, and who do you see the Hawks considering with that pick?
This question can answer itself with the PFN mock draft simulator or one of many online trade value charts. Draftek updates theirs every year I think.
Texans pick #13. Vikings pick #12.
If we trade Texans for 13, we could get pick 68 if we add one of our 5th rounders. Pick 80 if not.
If we trade Vikings for 12, pick 77 is the only option, again would probably add a 5th.
Those are the least complicated, you start adding in more picks or players either way and there could be many possibilities.
Cam Jurgens feels like a great pick… I’d say him over the Iowa guy just because it gives a different focus for 40/41.
Sleeper RT. Luke Goedeke Central Michigan. 413 pass blocking dropbacks, 0 sacks, 7 pressures. 32 1/4 arms tho
I would not be surprised if he’s a Rams pick. They love to take OT and convert them into guards.
Goedeke is one of my favorites, but I wonder why he’s done no agility testing. You can see him have difficulty vs speed so maybe guard is his final position. Such a great attitude, though. Great finisher.
Short arms the problem there
That’s not good…
They have the same agent.
Rob got a shout out for his analysis regarding why the Hawks might target Penning on Walterfootball. People know where to go to get the best analysis on the Hawks!
Link>
I keep seeing Charles Cross as a top 10 pick. Then I watched that video of Jermaine Johnson against him. My Dog, Johnson did everything to him except tie his shoelaces together.
It is perhaps fortunate that Cross is seen as mainly a good pass blocker, which should not appeal to PC/JS with their run first emphasis. If we take him at #9 (or anytime) I will cry myself to sleep.
Cross is the most overrated player in the draft
Wait – when did the pick from the Broncos change from 152 to 145? I thought this was a mistake on PFN but it’s listed as official on NFL site as well.
https://www.nfl.com/_amp/2022-nfl-draft-order-for-all-seven-rounds
Tap tap tap…Is this thing on?
Don’t be obnoxious. These picks were confirmed as early as 3/16. Had you been paying attention, Finn, you’d know that. It appears all these other sites have just started catching up with this news now.
Ok, thanks!
This is all pretty funny. Thanks!
I’ve been thinking for a while that they would go Safety at the top of the second. Lots of solid talent. I don’t suspect Cine will make it though. My money is on Jalen Pitre; If the board falls right, of course.
The presser was revealing enough with regards to getting the coaching staff deeper into the process. Clint, Sean and Karl have some stuff thought up on D, and it sounds like their input is going to carry more weight than it may have in previous years. They want juice + attitude and I think that’s going to extend through the entire class of picks. And with the injuries we’ve seen in recent years, I’m always on the side of “you can never have too many good DB’s”.
I like where your head’s at, Rob. Lots to mull.
Thanks again for what you do.
I really really like Pitre. He has a lot of Budda Baker in his game.
Yeah- Pitre is a real fun player. If they think he can be coached up to be better in coverage, seems like a stellar pairing with Adams.
Draft Tindall and Cine/Cross/Cook and make Adams compete.
I was encouraged by the statement that they are excited to be in a position where only so many things can happen before #9, compared to normal when there the board can fall any number of ways when you’re picking in the 20s.
That tells me there are some scenarios where they pick a guy they love at #9 if he falls.
Also, I watched the press conference again on mute just so I could watch the body language of Pete and John, and didn’t come away with much (probably because I’m not very good with body language lol). Although, I did notice two things. Around the 12:30 mark, John’s mouth curves up into a half smile when he says “picking at #9” is exciting but isn’t a place you normally want to be drafting. I think he loves being able to have a pick as high as 9.
Right after that, after he was asked about the flexibility of moving around in the draft via trade, there was mention of having 2 picks in the second round and the idea of that giving them more flexibility. Right after he mentions the two draft picks, he started rubbing his lips together as he ended his comment and looks to Pete, this activity was pretty unusual for John at least in this video (I don’t think I saw him do it nearly as long at any other time). John usually ends his statements by closing his mouth with a half-frown, almost like he’s saying “I’m done now” and the rubbing together of the lips stood out as an outlier to me. Maybe this means they have clear plans for how they hope to work those two second round picks? Who knows, but fun to guess!
I agree there is a good chance they pick at #9 with the feeling someone they really likes drops. This is mainly based on the fact normally very few can predict the top ten and in fact over the last few drafts a lot of just ‘good’ and even a few ‘average’ players have been picked there. I mean the Giants picked a RB there a few years ago – who knows who they pick with their 2…
Also agree that maybe #40#41 picks could be traded down to add more picks this way as JSPC love RDS 2-5
I just get the sense they will seriously consider trading up from 40. And that’s hard to do unless you move down from 9 first.
But it’s also possible nobody offers an attractive trade and you just have to pick. But based on what Tony said and the press conference yesterday where they basically put #9 up for sale, it sounds like they want to move down.
Which is understandable. The success or failure of your draft this year is going to be determined in day two IMO. That’s where the value is this year.
Hypothetically, would you rather come away with one, elite, all-pro level player at a key position…
Or 3 or 4 good (not great) starters who would be part of the foundation going forward?
In a way, I want to answer “either” … because of the paucity of talent on the roster.
But thinking it over, it’s probably best to add 3-4 really good players. And I think that 9, 40 and 41 and 72 too can become—SHOULD become—3-4 very good players.
At 9 one could pick the first or second receiver, probably one of the two top CBs, maybe the last highly rated OT or pass rusher.
I think it could be one of the most interesting spots to trade up to.
Derek said:
“Also, I watched the press conference again on mute just so I could watch the body language of Pete and John, and didn’t come away with much (probably because I’m not very good with body language lol). Although, I did notice two things. Around the 12:30 mark, John’s mouth curves up into a half smile when he says “picking at #9” is exciting but isn’t a place you normally want to be drafting. I think he loves being able to have a pick as high as 9.”
Read former FBI Agent Joe Navarro’s books, “What Every Body is Saying” and “The Dictionary of Body Language”, also check out his website.
Panthers are in a similar position as the Browns with QB. Fully guaranteed contract with a QB they don’t want. I’m thinking we might be waiting for them to make a move at QB so that we can make a move for Darnold. Not something I’m hoping for, but it could fit with our outlook for this year.
I kind of liked the latest Kiper\McShay mashup mock. Even Neal at 9 would be interesting. I’m a Penning guy because he’s chaos incarnate but it may be nice to have someone that just gets the job done with no muss no fuss like Neal.
Not sure about Corral and Quay Walker at 40-41, as they selected. I think we can maneuver around here a bit and still get quality. I prefer Chenal to Walker, for instance, and I think we can still get a good C here.
In the third they have the ‘Hawks taking Amare Barno who is just so damn Seahawky and totally fits in with what PCJS have been saying about what the new players can do with their brand coaching. The guy is 6’6″ and almost 250 but ran a 4.39. Plays with his hair on fire but point him in the right direction and man…the possibilities.
I read chaos incarnate and Penning and I think penalties.
Lots of penalties. Drive-killing penalties. Score eliminating penalties. Game wrecking penalties.
But that may just be me
Aren’t we looking for gamewreckers? Let’s get Ifedi back!
On that note-
Carpenter, Giacomini, Britt, Gilliam, Ifedi, Shell.
If Giacomini was a first round pick we would have hated him, but him, Shell, and Gillian were about as good on the whole as carpenter, ifedi, britt at playing RT… makes me prefer just throwing Curhan out there…
Blitzy, a lot of those fouls are going to be for unnecessary roughness.
But is any roughness on Aaron Donald unnecessary?
I think this is my least favorite of all scenarios. It is very likely. I want no part of a fake tough guy at 13 or 30. None of the OT are a lock on the left side so draft them accordingly. If you can pick up Lucas after a trade back, I would much prefer that.
“fake tough guy” in other words the opposite of Kam Chancellor and Marshawn Lynch and Breno Giacomini……..you know, guys that played a huge part in this team winning it’s one and only Super Bowl.
This is the year to trade back and let guys fall to you, They really need multiple guys at OT. Harvest some picks with a couple of small trade backs among your first 4 picks and have the option to move up ( DE,OC,OT,LB, S), or double up on positions later (LT, CB, RB, LB, DE). There will be plenty of legit tough guys left on the board after #9. Or run to the podium and draft a Premier edge@ #9.
I’m OK with a trade down as long as they don’t over think it and end up with a Collier type over reach.
I think given the state of the roster the Hawks need to use those first 3 picks to add talent at the premium positions. OT, CB and Edge rusher.
#9 Stingley
#40 Lucas
#41 Williams
Add elite traits and talent at 3 premium pistons and then use round 3-7 to add an RB, C as well as grit / depth.
The history of young players of young players with lis-franc is not good—they miss games and have short careers. The sample size is small, but it’s probably enough to deter SEA from drafting Stingley at #9.
I’m in favour of this in theory, but it more likely means reaching for Trevor Penning or a QB. If the board falls for you target those positions for sure, but think our roster is more in need of talent above all else. I’d rather grab an excellent Guard or LB than a bad Tackle.
I agree they can’t reach but Super Bowl teams in todays NFL are not built with LB and Guards. Who were the LB and G for the SB teams last year? Not saying they are not important but you can find starting level G and LB in rounds 3-7 or on the free agent market at a reasonable price.
The reason the Hawks have struggles IMO is because they have focused resources on LB, Safety, Interior OL and RB. All of which are not premium portions in todays NFL.
Even if your hypothesis is true and I’m not sure it is..austin Corbett second round guard for the Rams. Seattle winning the superbowl with furst round pick Hames Carpenter playing LG, Max Unger second round pick Center.
Seattle has had nearly zero luck finding oline players in the later rounds. Lewis in the third round if they don’t screw him up.
Though it seems like it should be possible to find guards later seattle has made as Rob would say a “dog’s dinner,” with that proposition.
I’m pretty into Stingley less so on Williams who I feel is a classic traits guy Seattle would pick and might just toil unrefined for a few years.
I think they were convinced that they could build a credible o-line with late picks. They drew completely the wrong lesson from JR Sweezy—which should have been along the lines of “take the money and run”—and kept going to the late-round well.
You wouldn’t add a LB from the deepest LB class in memory when the team is shifting to a 3-4 with only 2 starting caliber LBs on the roster?
oh-kay
Rob, in a future post can you summarize who you regard as blue-chip prospects (however you define this) regardless of position or draft projection?
I think if you look at his board you will have an idea.
The first players drafted by PCJS:
2010: Russell Okung (1/6)
2011: James Carpenter (1/25)
2012: Bruce Irvin (1/15)
2013: Christine Michael (2/62)
2014: Paul Richardson (2/45)
2015: Frank Clark (2/63)
2016: Germain Ifedi (1/31)
2017: Malik McDowell (2/35)
2018: Rashaad Penny (1/27)
2019: LJ Collier (1/29)
2020: Jordyn Brooks (1/27)
2021: Dee Eskridge (2/56)
From 2013 on, only Clark and probably Brooks can be regarded as good enough to be key contributors on a team with deep playoff aspirations. (The jury being still out on Penny
My guess is that there is a lot of pressure on PCJS to make that first pick a player who can contribute right away.
I think Brooks is rather average tho I do believe there’s still time for him to get to an above average level.
The entire list is pretty uninspiring.
Especially when you look at who they *could* have had instead.
Irvin is considered a decent pick, but he underwhelmed as an edge rusher (what they initially hoped he’d be), and we passed on Chandler Jones to get him.
Really, only Okung and Clark look like great picks. (Though Earl should probably be on the list, too, as an example of a high pick)
Absolutely agree.
After watching the PC/JS press conference, I agree that it seems likely that they are prepped to trade out of that #9 spot.
I had a look back at their early Seahawks drafts & one thing that they did a couple of times is to trade not just for picks but also players. They have already done that with the RW trade so do you think they might do something similar with #9 to churn the roster a bit. And if so, is there anybody that you think that they could get who would fit in &, maybe, still gain them another pick later on?
Just using the 4 picks they have through 72 can really beef up this team. My fear is they are going to try to be cute to get “their guys”.
Careful… JS bristles at being called “cute”.
Careful, there are people who post here twice that will call you negative.
+1!
I suppose there is a scenario where they could go complete offensive line.
Pick up enough draft stock in trading down from 9 that they could move up from 40 and 41.
End up with Trevor Penning, Zion Johnson, and Tyler Linderbaum.
Rebuild the front line and hope that you can get Williams or Clemens later to help with the defense.
Rob, you’ve made a good case for Penning. Though he’s pretty far from my favorite prospect I started wondering if Charles Cross actually is their guy. Comments made about “two point,” stances and coaching and he’s even less my guy. There’s ofte references to the Rams abd they do things differently on offensive line… with that I wonder about Penning for the following two reasons:
1. Seattle has only spent two picks in the first two rounds on non power five programs. Not counting Golden Tate at Notre Dame. WR eskridge and RB penny.
2. For offensive line picks including Sweezy and Sokoli, dline converts, Seattle has only spent five picks on non power five programs the highest of which was Rees Odiahmbo round three from Idaho.
Though Penning is not my preferred choice given their predilection to power five players with John recently mentioning “big boy football,” with regards to playing at or against Georgia, I’m low key worried that Seattle thinks Cross is the guy to get.
It would be tragically hilarious if you end up being right. All signs point to Cross being overrated and not a fit, which makes his selection all the more likely. Because that’s how we do.
There’s a big difference in being right and annoying ny wife while fist pumping around the house when the seahawks drafted Wilson in the third….
And how I’ll feel if I am right about charles cross.
Penning would be an uninspiring pick, but Cross would just be leading us down the road most often traveled by Pete and John in past drafts. Theres something to be said for being consistent, but not in this case.
No.
The Seahawks taking a non-explosive, only reasonably sized tackle who doesn’t run-block — not happening
I really hope you’re right. Not loving penning but will hate cross.
The only team that really makes sense for Cross is the Giants for me. Listening to Shaun O’Hara on NFLN talk about him sold me.
It’s not about TEF for him with the Giants, it’s about agility and mirroring. Consider this. When we took Bruce Irvin at #17, people criticized us for drafting a “one trick pony.” But that one trick was getting to the quarterback – a very important trick.
Charles Cross is the opposite of that. Is he going to give you much in the running game? Hell no. But he’s quick enough to deal with speed rushers. O’Hara suggested they draft him and then go get another TEF bully at another line position because Saquan Barkeley is getting no help at all. He played some video that proved his case.
After a year with an NFL trainer, it’s possible Cross can improve those TEF scores. Bruce Irvin got a little better holding the edge, so why not?
I would prefer cross because he is an already polished and developed tackle. I have zero confidence in our staff to develop Penning even if the potential is there
Cross didn’t run block
His technique is sketchy, his base incredibly narrow and he might as well play wearing a ‘please bull rush me’ sign
This idea that he’s polished and developed isn’t accurate
Trevor Penning and all of his penalties feel like a massive bust waiting to happen. Everyone remembers how they felt about Germain Ifedi and his penalties being a problem but Penning averaged a penalty a game his final 2 years.
Penning is a fake tough guy and also not very good. Athletically – he is incredible. But he’s not a very good football player.
I’m fine with a guy like that in R2 – no effing way in the top half of R1.
There we go!
5th safety problem solved!
I feel ya Earl.
I’m solidly middle aged. If I’m honest I’m short. Can’t grow a beard if I needed to. Occasionally still get a pimple every now and again and get carded on the occasion I buy a hoppy beverage……so if you are ready to resume football I’m ready for a late growth spurt to make me as tall as all the men in my family.
I felt every word of this 🍻
It’s been o long since I got carded I truly don’t remember it
Been mentioned a few times but Penning to me is not someone I would want this team investing in. Strikes me as a bit of an immature grade school bully.
I’d rather they take Zion or Jordan Davis if the draft fell like this but I can understand the logic.
I like the trade down here, but I’m going against the grain. I really like DT Jordan Davis out of Georgia. A monster of a man at 6’6″ 340lbs that ran a 4.78 40. He solidifies the defensive trenches against the run. A top class athlete that demands a double team on the line and sets up success for your pass rush.
From a Seattle Times article:
“Davis won the Chuck Bednarik Award as the best defensive player in college football and the Outland Trophy as the best interior defensive lineman. His 40 time at the NFL combine was the fastest of any player weighing more than 310 pounds since 2003, per Next Gen Stats. He’s the freakiest of freaks.”
https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/seahawks/why-the-seahawks-could-target-jordan-davis-in-the-first-round-of-the-2022-nfl-draft/
I know this has already been covered by Rob several times who thinks otherwise. I won’t get my hopes up but that who I like.
We all like him.
But does anyone seriously expect him to be the pick? That’s the point
In a trade down scenario, yes. Accrue more value in the 3rdish and take the freak athlete who is the absolute best at the position. Solidify the trenches.
Also fits the ‘take the best player available’ argument.
I’m with you CWA,
Choice A- wrecking machine on Dline
Choice B- Guessing which position the 4th Olineman taken might be able to play on Oline.
You know what the smartest guys in the room are going to do.
Also, we know how much Pete values run defense.
I’m not saying that they should select Davis, either at 9 or after a trade down. I’m just saying that I wouldn’t be shocked if they did.
I would be shocked
I like Davis but would be very, very shocked. There’s no reason to expect it
Rob would GB trade 22 and 28 for 9?
22,28, 40 and 41 would be strong.
C, Edge, LB, LT.
I think 22 is too low
Based on trade value alone it’s a great trade for Seattle. Top needs are OT & WR, possibly Safety. Still hard to see them trading that package for a Cross, Garrett Wilson, or Kyle Hamilton; but anything is possible.
I’d prefer we take Stingley, but I could see JS taking that deal.
I agree. There’s no way GB would offer 22 and 28 for 9.
However, I’ve been wondering if New England would trade 21, 54 and 85 for 9.
That way we could take Zion Johnson at 21 anyway (assuming that’s where he’s most likely to go) and then move back into the top 50 with 72 and 85.
4 picks in the top 50 sounds good
Zion at 21
Jurgens/Lindy at 40
BPA LB/OT/S at 41-50
Or the more I think about it, stay put at 72 and 85 and take an OT/RB pair like Logan Bruss and Dameon Pierce.
I’ve decided that I don’t want to be disappointed. So I’ve decided that I expect them to trade out of the first and draft all 4th round talent with their 13 picks they accumulate and still not tank for 2023.
This way, anything better than that I can be pleasantly surprised.
I can see it now, after making no picks on day 1, JS sits in front of the seattle media absolutely beaming that he turned #9 into 4 day 2 and 3 picks.
Hey Rob, wondering why you think the Seahawks could like Linderbaum so much as he has the shortest arms Ive seen in awhile at 31 1/8?
I feel like I’ve written about this in about 8-10 different articles already Hoggs41
At the press conference JS/PC waxed about this year feels like the 2012 draft: including Bruce Irvin–who people said they overdrafted….but Seahawks think they ‘showed everyone else to be wrong.” But did they?
To me, Bruce Irvin was not that great of a player. Not a #15 good. If that is their standard Seahawks are in trouble. A #9 (or #12- 15 pick) to me, should be an impact player. Irvin contributed, but not in an Impact Player way.
Am I wrong? Was Bruce Irvin all that great of a pro football player?
They passed on better players to take Bruce
He was a good player, definitely not a bust. But not a complete home-run either.
You are 1009% correct imo.
That’s hubris returning. Patting themselves for Irvin over Chandler Jones is weird.
I wonder if their egos inflate when the people are back in the building. The combine presser felt humble, this felt back to business as usual- particularly Schneider- he parades like the best GM in the game.
Draft is roll of a dice
Bruce Irvin did lead all rookies in sacks with 8.
But you barely noticed it because that defense was pure evil.
Rob,
If the top tier of players this year runs maybe 20 deep, how far down would you say the 2nd tier goes? Can you obtain comparable talent between picks 20-40? Between 20-50? Just trying to get a sense for the sweet spot in the draft.
I think it probably runs into the 40’s, early 50’s
I’ll publish an updated horizontal board, possibly today
Rough two days at work (day job) so a bit snowed under
…can we call your “horizontal board” something else?
…hard to post publicly how much i love your horizontal board
How about ‘great length of talent’?
Hahaha… nice one
I think Mrs. Staton came up with that one.
The over/under for Jermaine Johnson has been 9.5 for a month with under 9.5 a huge favorite. Today the odds changed dramatically and he is now favored to go 10 or later. Did some news come out on an injury that I missed? Is this free money 🙂
Pff updated their rankings and moved him down to 32 and I wondered the same thing! Most of the other changes seemed to make sense with a lot of the guys talked about on here moved up to more suitable positions if not probably as high as they should be
I know some stuff came out about how fast JJ got to the QB on his sacks, probably related. It think the majority of the sacks they stated came 3 seconds or later, which worse than the other edge players.
Found the link:
https://twitter.com/PFF_AustinGayle/status/1514757861657747460
I think agents and GM’s start manipulating the narrative about now.
So how we gonna feel if they pass on Johnson if he’s there at #9?
I think I’ll be pleasantly surprised if they don’t.
It is free money
Christopher Allen is a player I hope the hawks can swoop up in the 4/5th round. I haven’t heard much talk about him but if not for that injury in week 1… seems like he could have maybe the most unspoken upside of anyone in the draft.
Mike Salk being dragged all over Seattle for saying he wants Kyle Seager to ‘burn’ and taking pot shots at Seagers wife.
Dude, let it go.
Context? What are you referencing? “burn”? What’s this about? (Ii’m not in Seattle)
Some long standing animosity it sounds like. Salk was talking about the new third baseman and decided to bring up Seager. Just about the entire team coming to his defense.
https://mobile.twitter.com/M_Hanny17/status/1517280304087506944?cxt=HHwWgICp3bmZu44qAAAA
A Seattle shop even printing up t shirts
https://mobile.twitter.com/simplyseattle/status/1517323294541635585
Salk is nothing without Brock. He’s a typical know it all.
Confirms my opinion of Salk. I moved from Seattle, but wasn’t a fan when there. “Big hat. No cattle”
What an unpleasant, boring to listen to, ass. Cant ask a hard question, but can insult retired players and their fam.
Kyle was a consummate professional and put up with a worthless org for a decade. Get him out here. Just move Jake and Stacy up, bring on Bumpus and somebody new for the midday!
Yes, please fill us in cha. I’m not in Seattle either.
At first I was a little turned off by you mocking the trade down to pick Penning. But the possibility of someone like Cine being available with your second pick makes it a bit more appealing. It’s possible that they view Cine as being about as good or even better than Stingley among the DB’s. And it’s likely they would value a true tackle like Penning much more than any interior OL prospect available to them. So it’s basically:
OT Penning and Cine plus some additional draft capital
or
Interior OL and Stingley/Sauce
If you view Cine as an overall DB prospect in line with the stud CB’s, the trade down for Penning makes a lot of sense.
My question is what type of return could they hope for from a trade down to mid-teens?
Will be really let down if our #1 pick in the post-RW era is Penning.
Would rather swing for the fences with Stingley or trade down and take Zion, Wyatt or even Davis.
Loved this breakdown of what we are missing out on, what could have been:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Hd48P1Cl2Mk
Great stuff Rob.
I’d absolutely hate the Penning pick – I, quite, frankly don’t think he’s very good and has zero chance to be a Left Tackle. He got flat out abused in the senior bowl. I don’t particularly care for the lost whistle tough guy routine – I think that’s indicative of someone who is actually not a tough guy. I think he ends up being a wholly replaceable RT which would be an absolutely horrendous pick.
I too would rather have Zion Johnson – at least I would feel like you’re swinging for the fences on that pick.
Right there with you
If he was pick 41 – I might get excited about the potential…but early R1…please be good at football, right now.
Disagree.
Abused at the Senior Bowl? Do you have any idea how good the defensive players at the Senior Bowl were this this year?
Here is the murderers row he went one on one with in practice in pouring rain.
Phidarian Mathis, Alabama
John Ridgeway III, Arkansas
Zachary Carter, Florida
Jermaine Johnson II, Florida State
Devonte Wyatt, Georgia
Kingsley Enagbare, South Carolina
Micheal Clemons, Texas A&M,
Amare Barno, Virginia Tech
DeAngelo Malone, Western Kentucky
Cameron Thomas, San Diego State,
Myjai Sanders, Cincinnati
Travis Jones, Connecticut
Logan Hall, Houston
Boye Mafe, Minnesota
Tyreke Smith, Ohio State
Perrion Winfrey, Oklahoma
Arnold Ebiketie, Penn State
Isaiah Thomas, Oklahoma
Dominique Robinson, Miami (Ohio)
Haskell Garrett, Ohio State
Neil Farrell Jr., LSU,
Give me four of these players. FOUR!
And I didn’t include ANY linebackers.
Yes, abused.
Good luck to your son on draft day.
JS likes strong armed QB (Russ, Allen, Mahomes).
Bold prediction: Hawks take Malik Willis w 1st pick
No chance
More likely would be Sam Howell in the 3rd. I’ll be hoping no QB until 4th or later.
I’d rather have a tall Cole Kelly in the 7th with his near 10″ hand as a 7th rounder over Willis as a 1st. Go from being a team to giving a shorter QB a shot to the team giving the 6’7″ guy a chance.
If one of the top 4 Edge’s or top two CBs are gone at 9, they are trading back. I’d like to see; Zion (pick from trade back at #9), S Williams, (40), Lucus (41), C Jurgans (pick from trade back) at #9), D Pierce (72). Build the lines this year and get skill positions next draft.
Exactly the kind of draft I want as well. I just want them to commit to a philosophy. Go get the BAMF’s, tone-setters and guys that other guys rally around. Really want the athletes on the OL that have been outlined here and am scared they’ll go for the Cross, Smith, Green and Faalele types instead.
Rob, is there ANY LT worthy of first round this year? Seems the best ones you believe to be guards or RT.
Perhaps Neal? So if he’s there at 9 should SEA grab him?
Every scout every year says most of the top left tackle prospects will have to play guard or right tackle in the league. It has become a cliche at this point. Some of those players will end up changing positions, some will be left tackles.
Penning will be a left tackle in the league. He’s not a guard, no way in hell. There’s no reason to place him ion the right side at this time, it would only stunt his development.
There’s every reason to move him to the right. He needs major technical refinement and the pressure of protecting the blindside on an island could finish him before he begins.
And there’s every chance he ends up at guard. It’s why they tried him there at the Senior Bowl.
It’s not a cliche. You’re just trying to undermine valid views because they don’t align with your own.
Neal is a guard for me. As is Ekwonu.
I think Penning is a tackle but more 25-32 in grade.
Rob,
Any thoughts on Danny Gray, the WR from SMU?
Very quick. Like him. Glides. I think in rounds 3/4 he’s a great option.
I have yet to see a mock that does not have at least one of the following players being available at #9: Neal, Johnson, Gardner, Stingley or Thibodeaux. Certainly these guys are on any Tier 1 list. Probably add Hamilton and a couple of WRs to the Tier 1 list as well.
John speaks often about using the Tier system to trade down, in that he will do so if he has enough players on that Tier to be assured that at least one of them will be available. He has often traded down from late R1 into R2, because all are Tier 2 players in that range. If Seattle stays at #9, they can pick one of their Tier 1 guys. If they trade down five slots, most likely none of their Tier 1 guys will be there. I do think Penning looks like a promising LT prospect, but he is not Tier 1 due to lack of quick feet, despite top end 40 speed.
Trading down out of Tier 1 and picking up an extra R3 pick just does not seem worth it for a team rebuilding and needing an elite player to replace ones they have lost. Look at how may elite, Hall-of-Fame caliber players we have lost: Russ, Wagz, Sherm, Earl, Kam, Beast… The only very good but by no means HoF elite players we have brought on board since are DK, Carson (now injured), Jamal (injured and miss-used), Diggs (borderline) and Lockett (bless his heart). Brown used-to-be pro-bowl but not at 37. Passing on a Neal, Johnson, Gardner, Stingley or Thibodeaux is probably passing on a star-quality player that every team needs to win a championship.
I still can’t get over the fact that during Russell Wilson’s time in Seattle, PCJS only selected one offensive lineman in the first round. Just the one! And it was none other than…
In 10 drafts including Russell’s, that’s a grand total of 1 first round tackle who should have been a guard (Iffedi), 1 second round center (Pocic), and one second round tackle who became a center (Britt).
Color me salty. Does this just speak to the unpredictability of high OL draft picks? During those 10 drafts the Patriots did the same thing.
I really hope we stick with your original plan which is to rebuild a defensive monster. Go back to punishing offenses and then running the ball on offense. Although Penning helps the run game, I’d like to see them target the D line. Could be a trade back if an edge doesn’t fall but you could still get the likes of Davis or Mafe.
After Russel Okung I think the best OL the Hawks have drafted might be George Fant as crazy as that sounds. He would look good at LT right now for the Hawks that’s for sure.
Fully agree. But lets not forget he wasnt even drafted!!
I will say this Trevor Penning is kinda a bully .we have asked many times times what happened to the Seahawks bully? Since Kam left ? He does that need
Rob thanks for all the content!
On the QB pick – not until #19…
Q: number of drafts over the past 20 years without a QB taken 1st overall?
A: 5
Q: of the 5, the number drafts where a QB wasn’t taken in the 1st 3 picks?
A: 1
Q: what was the pick in that draft?
A: in 2013, EJ Manuel was taken #16
Your projection would be the lowest QB pick on over 20 years
Well none of those other drafts had this quarterback class