Looking at a worst case scenario mock draft for the Seahawks

April 20th, 2014 | Written by Rob Staton

Richard Sherman doesn't approve this projection

The Seahawks will be extremely unlucky if it plays out like this.

But it isn’t impossible — and it might not even be that unlikely.

As everyone keeps saying this is a deep draft class (as you’d expect when 98 underclassmen decide to turn pro). Yet there isn’t an endless pool of talent. The depth on the defensive line is particularly weak. Anyone wanting an impact pass rusher better get in there quickly.

All of the talk at the moment is about the quarterbacks falling like they did last year. There’s only one tight end likely to go early while nobody expects a running back to be taken in the first frame.

We could see teams being quite aggressive to:

a.) fill needs

b.) tap into the top echelon of prospects

Here’s what I’d consider to be a ‘worst case scenario’ projection as far as the Seahawks are concerned:

There’s a lot of potential Seahawks gone by #32. A heck of a lot.

Provoking factors

– Teams picking in the top ten haven’t gone after the quarterbacks. All of the media reports in the last two weeks have been about teams waiting to draft a QB. If this is more than a smokescreen (and only one QB was drafted in round one last year) this isn’t good news for any team that already has a franchise quarterback. Ideally you’d see the likes of Houston, Jacksonville, Cleveland and Minnesota grabbing QB’s early, pushing players at other positions down the board. The first QB taken in this projection is Blake Bortles at #20 — and even that assumes the Cardinals are prepared to draft Carson Palmer’s eventual replacement in round one.

– When projecting 7-8 receivers to be drafted in the first round, it’s not because of need. It’s all about quality. They are just better than players at other positions. I could be wrong, but I think teams will be falling over themselves to get a receiver from this class. Marqise Lee and Odell Beckham Jr could easily go in the top-12. The two teams taking them here — Tampa Bay and Tennessee — get impact players with a ton of upside. If we see four receivers going as early as this, don’t be shocked when Kelvin Benjamin, Cody Latimer and Brandin Cooks also go in the 12-23 range. These players are too good to fall into round two.

– It’s a really poor draft for pass rushers. I’m not seeing what a lot of people see in Timmy Jernigan, Dee Ford and Kony Ealy. I think there’s a really good chance all three players are available in rounds two or three. So who’s the next best edge rusher after Anthony Barr (who leaves the board at #10 here)? It could be Demarcus Lawrence or Marcus Smith. Dallas is in desperate need of further additions to its defensive line. They might have consider reaching to get another pass rusher. If they don’t take one at #16 they could miss out altogether. And a historically bad defense in 2013 could get even worse. If the likes of Barr, Lawrence and Smith are gone by #32 I think it makes it incredibly unlikely the Seahawks will draft an edge rusher in round one.

– Offensive tackle remains a premium position and every year teams go after the top prospects very early. In this projection there’s a consistent flow of tackles leaving the board. Three go in the top ten (Robinson, Matthews and Lewan), three more go between 11-20 (Martin, Moses and Kouandjio) and Joel Bitonio is taken by the Panthers at #28. All of the teams are filling needs.

How likely is this?

This is an extremely negative projection for the purpose of the article and it’d be a pretty remarkable hand to be dealt. I wouldn’t necessarily expect it to play out like this. Even if it does, there are still attractive alternative options.

I think it’s very possible that a high number of offensive tackles will be gone before #32. Last year nine offensive linemen were taken in round one — I’ve only named seven here. There are enough teams in the market for a tackle and the Seahawks could run out of first round options. Even clubs like Baltimore and Miami who made free agent splashes at left tackle will consider further investment on the right side.

I’ve felt for a while that Seattle’s best chance at drafting an offensive lineman in round one will be if teams undervalue Joel Bitonio.

The cause for a receiver will be aided if Marqise Lee and Odell Beckham Jr don’t go as early as the top-12. They’re both top prospects so it could happen. But I could also see both lasting into the teens.

I suspect a player like Cody Latimer will have a great deal of appeal to the Seahawks given his combination of explosive athleticism, strong hands, size, ability to compete for the ball in the air and run blocking. I actually think it’ll be a surprise if he lasts until the #32. In fact I’d say Kelvin Benjamin, Brandin Cooks and Donte Moncrief are more likely to be available later in round one.

It might be a stretch for all four of Benjamin, Cooks, Moncrief and Latimer to be gone by #32. And yet all four are good enough for it to happen.

One thing I’m not sure about is the likelihood of there being no attractive defensive options if the OT’s and WR’s go early. Whether it’s a Ryan Shazier or a Ra’Shede Hageman, I think there’s every chance an appealing prospect could be left at #32. Even a Demarcus Lawrence or Marcus Smith would carry some value.

Part of the motivation for this piece was Mel Kiper’s mock earlier in the week. Many good options for Seattle were off the board by #32 according to Kiper’s projection. Yet it’s worth noting his ESPN colleague Todd McShay had both Anthony Barr and Shazier available for Seattle.

If the first round falls like this, who do they take?

Several big names dropped. They just don’t really fit the Seahawks.

C.J. Mosley is a talented linebacker but he’s far from an explosive athlete. Lingering concerns about his health could see a fall into round two and he just doesn’t seem like the type of player Seattle would draft in round one.

Justin Gilbert is still on the board and he has the length, speed and production (interceptions) that screams ‘Seahawks’. And yet his tape doesn’t match up. He was nearly benched last year and with good reason. There are one or two attitude concerns. Given Seattle’s prolific ability to find cornerbacks later in the draft, I’m not sure they’d be willing to take a chance on Gilbert in round one. After all, they passed on Jimmy Smith in 2011 (a vastly superior player in my eyes).

Calvin Pryor is still there — a decent safety who’s perhaps not quite as good as the national pundits have suggested. He’s a hard hitter but doesn’t have great range. He ran a mediocre 4.58 at the combine at 5-11, 207lbs. I can’t see the Seahawks drafting a safety this early anyway.

There are still receivers who could make sense. Martavis Bryant and Brandon Coleman are wildcard options. Stephon Tuitt is there. As we’ve discussed this week — would they consider Dominique Easley? A legit top-25 pick (maybe even top-15) with injury history?

I don’t think they’ll take a pure guard in round one despite it being a trendy pick with the national pundits. J.R. Sweezy is locked in at right guard while I think they’re comfortable using a rotation on the left side and letting Tom Cable fit guys into his scheme.

And yes — several big name quarterbacks are still on the board. I wouldn’t rule anything out so I can’t say with any certainty that a trade down won’t happen. The odds are against it though.

For starters, since they made day one of the draft exclusively the first round — no Super Bowl winners have traded out of the first. I’m not convinced that’s a coincidence.

Most teams looking to trade back into the first round don’t wait until the final pick of the day. They’ll often make their move in the 20′s. New England at #29 are always willing to deal, while there are other potential candidates (San Diego at #25, New Orleans at #27).

The 5th year option on a contract for first round prospects is incredibly valuable — especially to a team like Seattle that is preparing to spend big on Earl Thomas, Russell Wilson and Richard Sherman. Any trade offer would have to be worth the deal. Moving down 5-6 spots for a 5th rounder just isn’t that appealing. I think the Seahawks are more likely to deal the final selection in round two to try and accumulate more picks.

Every year we talk about teams moving back into the first round for a quarterback and let’s be right — it rarely happens. It doesn’t mean it won’t happen this year, but haven’t we been here before?

Presuming the Seahawks keep the #32 pick, who would you take in this scenario?

 

Options for Seattle at #32 based on Mel Kiper’s latest mock

April 19th, 2014 | Written by Rob Staton

Todd!!

Last week we had a look at Todd McShay’s mock draft and the options available to the Seahawks at #32.

As the Huddle Report points out, last years ‘top’ mock draft only guessed 12 correct picks. The options at #32 are wide ranging given it’s the final pick in round one. We can’t assume my mock will be unusually accurate because it probably won’t be. We need to look at other projections to debate as many different scenarios as possible.

As with McShay’s, Mel Kiper’s mock hides behind a pay wall. I can’t reveal all of the picks in round one, but here’s a selection of the players off the board by #32:

Ryan Shazier (LB, Ohio State) — drafted by Green Bay at #21
Kelvin Benjamin (WR, Florida State) — drafted by Philadelphia at #22
Marqise Lee (WR, USC) — drafted by Kansas City at #23
Anthony Barr (DE, UCLA) — drafted by San Diego at #25
Cody Latimer (WR, Indiana) — drafted by New Orleans at #27
Morgan Moses (T, Virginia) — drafted by Carolina at #28
Ra’Shede Hageman (DT, Minnesota) — drafted by New England at #29

A lot of good players get agonisingly close to Seattle. It even makes you wonder if they’d consider a small move up the board to avoid missing out?

I think it’s increasingly unlikely Cody Latimer lasts until #32. The more you watch the more you like. He’s a fantastic receiver, potentially the 4th or 5th best in a good group. Going to New Orleans at #27 is a good shout. I spent a bit of time researching other teams this week and a lot of Saints fans think they’ll go receiver in the first round. They also have a very active front office in New Orleans so don’t be surprised if they trade up.

Kiper had the Seahawks taking Stephon Tuitt (DE, Notre Dame). I can see the thinking considering he has Red Bryant type size, he’s a former 5-star recruit who reportedly managed a 4.8 at +300lbs. He’s still recovering from a foot injury that kept him out of the combine.

I also suspect they’ll feel they can add a big bodied defensive lineman later on. Tuitt isn’t a brilliant pass rusher. A run stuffing defensive lineman in round one doesn’t seem very ‘Seahawks’.

Pete Carroll has talked about adapting the defense following Bryant’s release. A like-for-like replacement is perhaps unlikely. Tony McDaniel has already been tagged as a possible five technique which could mean Jordan Hill gets an opportunity to start alongside Brandon Mebane. They may wish to add another interior pass rusher such as Ra’Shede Hageman to the rotation — and according to Kiper’s mock they’d only have to jump ahead of New England at #29 to land him.

Kiper’s mock follows a similar pattern to my own projection with eight receivers leaving the board in round one. He ends with Jordan Matthews going to the 49ers at #30. Personally I think that’d be a significant reach, but it also wouldn’t be a total shock. His personality matches well with Jim Harbaugh’s. I can kind of see it.

Not only does he have a high number of receivers off the board, none of the really appealing defensive options for Seattle suffer a drop. Shazier, Barr and Hageman are all gone. Interestingly in McShay’s mock both Shazier and Barr were available at #32.

Based on Kiper’s projection the Seahawks could come really close to several players and miss out. And that could mean they’re willing to take a chance at #32, as I’ve tried to portray below.

Here are the options that I believe could be in play for Seattle, based on the availability in Kiper’s mock:

Joel Bitonio (T, Nevada)
Kiper has Bitonio leaving the board at #50 to Miami
You know my take on Bitonio by now, so I’ll just give you the highlights. People complain about his arm length, yet he has exactly the same arm length as Taylor Lewan (33 7/8 inches) and he actually has longer arms than Jake Matthews (33 3/8 inches). So what’s the issue if it isn’t a problem for Lewan and Matthews?

He had an exceptional combine in every single drill apart from the bench press. If lifting weights is the only problem — I’m not concerned. He can learn to get stronger in a pro-weight room. And again, Matthews only managed 24 reps compared to Bitonio’s 22. On tape he shut down Anthony Barr and handled his business against Florida State. He performed admirably against Boise State and Demarcus Lawrence.

Try him at left or right tackle and if it doesn’t work, plug him in at guard for the next ten years. For me he can be Logan Mankins inside or a very serviceable starting right tackle.

Demarcus Lawrence (DE, Boise State)
Kiper has Lawrence leaving the board at #41 to Buffalo
A 4.80 forty might be too slow for the Seahawks, but a 1.62 10-yard split will get their attention. Jadeveon Clowney had a 1.59 split while Aaron Donald had a 1.63. That’s some get off by Lawrence and ultimately a more important time than his forty yard dash. There’s a little bit of Aldon Smith to his game — and let’s not forget Smith also ran a 4.74 but clocked an impressive split of 1.66.

Like Smith there are also some character concerns. He served suspensions at Boise State and those need to be checked out. Seattle is scheduled to give Lawrence a private workout before the draft according to Adam Caplan.

I suspect they’ll consider adding another pass rusher depending on how the board falls. If a whole host of receivers are gone including Cody Latimer and perhaps if Bitonio is also taken before #32 it becomes more realistic. There’s just a lot of question marks here and while the Seahawks are right to do their due diligence — this still seems like a wild card option. For me he’s a better fit for the 49ers at #30 and he could easily land in San Francisco — or, potentially, with the Cardinals.

Marcus Smith (DE, Louisville)
Not included in Kiper’s two-round mock
I was a bit surprised not to see Smith’s name in round two at least. In a draft with so few legit pass rushers I can’t see him getting out of the 30′s. If we’re talking about 10-yard splits how about this one — a 1.57 at the combine to go alongside a 4.68 forty. Smith also has terrific length at 6-3 and 251lbs with 34 inch arms.

He had 14.5 sacks in 2013 and could be taken before team mate Teddy Bridgewater. I spent a bit of time watching Bridgewater earlier today and overall I’d probably grade Smith higher. I’m really not sure why Twitter is so aghast at the possibility Teddy could fall. That’s a debate for another day I guess…

Smith has a knack for stripping the football. He could stand to get stronger — although in fairness he’s a converted quarterback still adapting to defense. His arms lack definition and with a good pre-season in the weight room he could be even better.

The 10-yard split is again the crucial part here. I think the Seahawks love extreme speed off the edge. Bruce Irvin ran an official 4.50 while Cliff Avril managed a a 4.51. Smith’s 4.68 doesn’t look all that great in comparison.

Now let’s compare the 10-yard splits: Irvin (1.55), Avril (1.50), Smith (1.57). Avril’s time was explosive, but Smith compares well. And it’s worth noting he also topped Avril in the broad jump (10.1 vs 9.9) and the vertical (35 inches vs 32.5) — two other tests used to determine how explosive a player is.

I’m not sure how vital the forty times are compared to the split, broad and vertical jumps. Smith is an explosive athlete and he could be an option for the Seahawks at #32 if a cluster of wide outs and tackles leave the board before their pick.

Both Lawrence and Smith in my view are vastly superior to Dee Ford and Kony Ealy.

Donte Moncrief (WR, Ole Miss)
Kiper has Moncrief leaving the board at #57 to San Diego
Moncrief doesn’t compete well enough for the ball in the air, but it’s really the only thing stopping him being a very attractive option for Seattle. He carries 221lbs incredibly well on a frame just shy of 6-3. He ran a 4.41 at the combine with an impressive 39.5 inch vertical. He had a 10-yard split of 1.50 which is better than 5-9, 189lbs Brandin Cooks (who ran a 4.33).

There’s just so much to work with here it’s unreal. As is the case with many receivers in this class, he had very little support from his college quarterback. Ole Miss’ offense has had an identity crisis ever since Hugh Freeze took over. Bo Wallace was regularly swapped in and out for a read-option replacement. There was very little fluidity to the passing attack and it hurt Moncrief’s production — particularly in 2013.

He needs to show stronger hands and he needs to high point better — but he has incredible leaping ability and it’s not like he’s totally useless in 50/50 situations. His best football will almost certainly come at the next level. For me there’s a great chance he’ll land in round one but he might end up competing with Cody Latimer to be taken in the 21-32 range. If Latimer has leapfrogged him on a few boards — it’s possible he lasts until #32.

Nobody should be disappointed if the Seahawks take Moncrief in round one. He eats up a cushion and shows crisp breaks in his routes. He can make people miss in the open field and explode. He’ll take the quick hitters Seattle threw at Golden Tate and when he wants to block — he can block. He’s another explosive player with a ton of upside.

Dominique Easley (DT, Florida)
Not included in Kiper’s two-round projection
In Kiper’s mock Easley was available at #64, but I’m going to bring him up here anyway. I don’t believe the Seahawks will take him in round one because the two knee injuries have to be a concern.

Yet he appears to be coming along in his rehab. He moved well at his pro-day last week and considering he picked up the injury in September — there’s at least some chance he’ll be ready for training camp. By July he’ll have been in rehab for 10 months.

Let’s just imagine this scenario. 7-8 receivers leave the board in round one including Cody Latimer, Odell Beckham Jr and any other wide out we’d expect the Seahawks to covet. Joel Bitonio perhaps leaves the board in the 20′s with Morgan Moses going to one of Miami at #19 or Arizona at #20. No defensive prospects like Anthony Barr or Ryan Shazier drop to #32 and one or both of Demarcus Lawrence and Marcus Smith get over-drafted due to a lack of alternative pass rushers.

Suddenly, the options aren’t that great. And you’re struggling to generate a deal to move down.

If they feel comfortable about Easley’s ability to stay healthy and make a full recovery — why wouldn’t you at least consider him here? Injury free he’s a legit top-25 pick. Maybe even top-15. And you can get him at #32.

The 49ers took Tank Carradine at #40 last year and had to redshirt him. The Seahawks wouldn’t have to redshirt Easley because he picked up the injury months before the end of last season. You could potentially get a disruptive, edgy three technique who consistently collapses the pocket from the interior. Plug him into the rotation with Bennett and Avril rushing the edge and it looks like a deadly combo.

The Seahawks want difference makers in round one and that’s what a healthy Easley can be. You could get another Sheldon Richardson but in the late first round.

Let’s put it this way — if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers draft him at #37 how would you react? Would you say it’s worth a gamble in round two? Would you say it’s justifiable in that range? If so — it’s only five picks later than Seattle and the Buccs aren’t the defending Super Bowl Champions.

I’m not trying to convince people this is going to happen or even should happen — but I think we should talk about it. If they were able to take a shot on Easley at #32, draft an offensive tackle at #64 (one of Ja’Wuan James or Antonio Richardson for example) and hunt for value the rest of the way — would that be a bad draft for Seattle? I think a worse draft would be to force the situation if all of the top receivers and tackles are off the board by the end of round one.

Easley is a major wild card — a player who could be taken before the #32 pick and could just as easily drop into the round 3-5 range depending on how teams view his injury history. It’s worth noting the Seahawks have used picks in the third and fourth round to search for interior pass rushers — and it’s unclear if they’d consider the position early without a top player being available. There’s also Dan Quinn’s insider knowledge to consider here.

I’d hate the Seahawks to pick Easley without us having this discussion though. His talent is worthy of a conversation about the #32 pick — even if the injuries scare you off.

 

Saturday notes: Thoughts on Dominique Easley

April 18th, 2014 | Written by Rob Staton

Easley would be a top-25 pick without the injuries. Like Sheldon Richardson a year ago, he has everything you want in a three technique — a pissed off with the world attitude, the ability to win with speed, technique or power and he holds his own against the run despite a lack of size.

Even when he doesn’t shoot into the backfield with initial burst — he has the ability to push the guard back into the pocket and impact the quarterback. He gets across the sideline to stretch out run plays and he plays with constant energy despite playing a high number of snaps for a defensive lineman.

It was devastating when he picked up his second ACL injury in Septemer. Devastating for the player, but also for fans of college football who didn’t get to see Easley build on a fantastic start to the season. He was sensational in the first three games and couldn’t be blocked.

Don’t take my word for it, judge for yourself. Keep an eye on #2:

It won’t shock me if a good team — and that includes Seattle of course — takes a chance on Easley early in this draft. Earlier than we think. You’d have to be pretty confident about the way his knee is healing and you’d draft him knowing the risk involved. Big men with bad knees isn’t usually a winning combination.

Yet the opportunity to get a player of Easley’s quality outside of the top-20 is rare. Very rare.

Tank Carradine was the #40 pick in the draft last year and was essentially redshirted by San Francisco after suffering a similar ACL injury. Easley is a lot better than Carradine in my opinion.

I can’t find any information that says USC and Pete Carroll recruited Easley, who was a 5-star player and part of Florida’s impressive 2010 class. He took a visit to Oregon in December 2009 and also received interest from UCLA. Sharrif Floyd was another 5-star recruit from the same class and he did garner interest from Carroll and the Trojans.

Even so, that doesn’t mean anything in terms of the draft. If Tony Pauline is reporting he could go in round two — Seattle might only have one chance to draft him.

I still think it’s unlikely they’d make that move at #32 given the way they look for impact players in round one (Okung, Thomas, Carpenter and Irvin all started immediately). Even if Easley’s making a strong recovery — is he going to be ready for training camp? It’ll be ten months of rehab by July.

One positive could be the way he recovered from the last ACL setback. He was still playing at an elite level in college after making a full recovery. Multiple ACL injuries will always be a big red flag. But if you trust he can make a full recovery — would you be willing to roll the dice? After all, Seattle needs depth on the defensive line and Easley is an unbelievable talent when healthy.

The Dan Quinn factor also has to be considered. He’ll know all about Easley having been his defensive coordinator at Florida. He’ll also know about his ability to recover from a serious knee injury and exactly what kind of value and potential he offers as a pro-prospect.

Wednesday’s work out (see below) was a real opportunity to show how healthy he is and whether he’s retained some of that early season spark. Don’t be shocked if he convinced a few teams that he can play in 2014 and get back to his old self. Especially given the dearth of early round talent on the defensive line.

Earlier today Rotoworld’s Evan Silva mocked Easley to the New England Patriots at #29. The Seahawks ended up getting Ra’Shede Hageman as a consequence.

Quick hitters

Center news helps Seattle?

If Richburg makes it into round one, it can only help the Seahawks. According to Draft Tek the teams expected to consider a center in rounds one or two include Denver, Green Bay, New Orleans and San Francisco.

There’s also a chance a team like Jacksonville jumps back into the first round to make a pick like this — after they missed out on Alex Mack.

Seattle won’t be drafting a center in round one, but if Richburg lands with one of the teams picking just before #32 — it pushes a different player closer to the Seahawks.

A sentence to sum up Timmy Jernigan

I spent a bit more time watching Jernigan this week. I don’t want to write a full report because the tape is so strikingly average and underwhelming.

One sentence sums it up:

If Aaron Donald lives in the backfield, Timmy Jernigan lives 2-3 yards in front of the line of scrimmage.

 

Updated mock draft: 17th April

April 17th, 2014 | Written by Rob Staton

Jadeveon Clowney should be the #1 pick in the draft.

Is he a can’t miss pick like Andrew Luck in 2012? No. Are there some concerns about his attitude in college and whether he truly wants to be great at the next level? Sure.

But it only takes one revision of the tape to remember just how exciting Clowney is. Especially if he’s going to be gifted J.J. Watt as a striker partner in Houston.

I went back and had a look at a couple of 2013 games this week and even in a disappointing final college season, you can see the potential with Clowney. The Texans spent years trying to beat Peyton Manning. Now they have to try and beat Andrew Luck.

Clowney + Watt is the solution.

Houston might actually be quite comfortable knowing there’s 2-3 QB’s they’ll be willing to take at #33. Are they really much better off reaching for Blake Bortles with the #1 pick compared to selecting Zach Mettenberger, Tom Savage, A.J. McCarron, Logan Thomas or even Teddy Bridgewater (if his fall from grace is legit) at #33?

Is there a threat teams will move up ahead of them? Absolutely. But that threat existed in 2011 when Cincinnati waited on Andy Dalton and still got their man. Or in 2012 when Seattle sat tight and got Wilson.

We always expect teams to move up for that elusive QB — and it rarely happens. The last time a team traded back into the first round to grab a quarterback was in 2007 when Cleveland moved up for Brady Quinn. Seven years have since passed.

And honestly, how likely is it a team will want to trade up anyway?

In the projection below Jacksonville, Minnesota and Cleveland get quarterbacks early (Manziel, Bortles and Carr). Oakland appears to be in some kind of ‘doomed-to-fail’ win-now mode, so a project quarterback in round two seems unlikely.

So who’s jumping Houston to get a QB? I can’t see any obvious candidates in this weeks mock. The Texans could have their pick of the second tier quarterback prospects.

They could theoretically leave the draft with Clowney and Bridgewater.

But don’t rule out Mettenberger or Savage either.

Here’s this weeks projection:

So what about the Seahawks at #32?

Joel Bitonio’s off the board at #27 to New Orleans. Morgan Moses is long gone to Miami at #19. If the intention is to go offensive tackle in round one, the options aren’t great in this mock. Not unless you’re willing to take a sizeable gamble on Cyrus Kouandjio’s health or reach for a player like Ja’Wuan James or Antonio Richardson.

Guard is a trendy pick for the Seahawks among national pundits. I don’t see this team drafting a pure guard in round one. A versatile tackle who can kick inside? Sure. But not a guy who can only play guard.

No defensive players suffered a surprising fall. Anthony Barr goes at #16 to Dallas, while Ryan Shazier goes to Green Bay at #21. Ra’Shede Hageman ends up in Arizona at #20. For me, Kony Ealy and Dee Ford will be lucky to stick in round two. Both players are overrated. Even a wildcard option like Demarcus Lawrence is off the board at #30 to the Niners.

In this projection I don’t see any reason to fight taking a receiver — even following the addition of Sidney Rice. Mel Kiper is putting out a new mock today and in the next couple of days we’ll look at what’s available at #32 (as we did with Todd McShay last week). In Kiper’s mock there might be a tackle or defensive player at #32 that is really appealing.

Not in this mock, though.

In light of the Rice news it’d be very easy to work out a way for a different player to fit at #32. Yet the idea of these mocks — at this time of the year — is to go through possible scenarios. The draft isn’t necessarily going to play out in favour of the team picking last in round one. We should prepare for that.

For me Cody Latimer is a really exciting prospect. Big time athlete, ideal size/speed, extremely strong and reliable hands, terrific run blocker (the best in this receiver class). He visited Seattle on Tuesday and seeing him in that Seahawks cap brought back visions of Christine Michael’s trip a year ago.

He’s pretty much everything I think they want in a big receiver. He’s an elite athlete, he wins contested passes down the sideline, he high points the football and he can play on special teams. He’s physical enough to shield Darqueze Dennard for a redzone touchdown — that play alone was one of the more impressive I’ve seen by a receiver this year. It wouldn’t shock me at all if he was given a very generous grade by the Seahawks.

The one area he can improve — creating separation — will put some teams off. An offense that relies on timing and getting open will see superior alternatives — such as Donte Moncrief (crisp into his breaks) or even Martavis Bryant. But a team like Seattle that is happy to take shots and actually wants to challenge its receivers to win jump balls and dominate the red line won’t be overly concerned by this. He excels when battling for the football.

Rice re-signing would take some of the pressure off Latimer to have an instant impact. He could still contribute without needing to be a key immediate starter. And with Rice, Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse all prospective free agents in 2015 — planning for the future wouldn’t be a bad idea.

I actually think they’ll be lucky if he’s there at #32. This mock is a lucky projection for the Seahawks. Be excited about this possibility. Latimer’s legit.

I think they would take the best offensive tackle or defensive prospect at #64 in this situation. I can’t help but feel the Tennessee duo of James and Richardson would be in play, but it’s a fairly deep class of offensive linemen.

Here’s another Latimer game (vs Missouri, 2013) to flick through and it’s not listed on Draft Breakdown:

 

Sidney Rice signs a one-year deal with the Seahawks

April 16th, 2014 | Written by Rob Staton

For me, this doesn’t have much of an impact on Seattle’s draft plans. This is just a classic Seahawks signing. They see an opportunity and they’ve gone for it. The price is right, the move fits.

Yet there’s no getting away from the fact Rice has been an injury prone receiver for some time and he’s recovering from a serious ACL injury. After being cut by the Seahawks he generated very little open market interest. He visited with the Jets today and almost immediately after that trip announced he was re-signing in Seattle.

To me this looks like a situation where he feels the best way to get back on the NFL map is to stay in a familiar environment. His new contract becomes a ‘prove it’ deal. Going to New York to play on a (still) wretched looking offense with Michael Vick and Geno Smith isn’t exactly appealing if he wants to launch a comeback. If the money is pretty similar, of course he’s going to choose Seattle over NYJ.

Clearly Rice commands a ton of respect in Seattle’s locker room and if nothing else the depth at the receiver position is bolstered after the loss of Golden Tate.

However — the commitment here is incredibly minimal. There’s absolutely no guarantee he’ll stay healthy. I’m guessing the financial terms will represent the situation and it’s a one year contract. Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse will both be free agents next year too.

If Rice excels next season he’s going to get paid. If he fails to perform or gets injured again, he probably isn’t re-signing. Either way this looks like a one year contract in the truest sense.

The idea that Rice re-signing ends the likelihood of a receiver being drafted early just seems fanciful.

It’s not just the long term benefit you get for bringing in another young receiver who can grow with this offense. This is also a tremendous receiver class — the type you don’t ignore unless you really have better options on the table.

Are you going to be able to pay Baldwin, Kearse and potentially Rice next year? It’s doubtful, especially in an off-season where Russell Wilson is eligible for a new deal for the first time. They’ve already chosen to give Percy Harvin the big money at receiver, so this is a situation that needs to be managed going forward.

If Joel Bitonio and Morgan Moses are off the board at #32 — and no defensive prospects take a surprising tumble — are you really going to pass on a talented receiver because you have Sidney Rice on a one year contract?

Of course not.

If anything this deal potentially takes some of the pressure off a rookie receiver to have an immediate impact. Seattle redshirted its 2013 draft class for the most part. ‘Wide out’ is a difficult position to learn quickly. If you draft a receiver at #32, you’re getting that player on a rookie contract for five years. Expectations would be low in 2014 with or without Rice.

Now if Bitonio, Moses or another offensive tackle (or defensive prospect) is sitting there at #32 — you’re also not ruing your depth at receiver. You’ve got some options.

Essentially it increases their flexibility in the draft. This is a win-win for the Seahawks and for Rice. But it doesn’t mean they aren’t going to look at receivers at #32 or #64.

 

Tuesday notes: trio visit Seattle, thoughts on Billy Turner

April 15th, 2014 | Written by Rob Staton

Cody Latimer visited Seattle today and Tweeted this picture...

Trio visit Seattle

The Seahawks have at least three players visiting their facility today — UCLA linebacker Jordan Zumwalt, Indiana receiver Cody Latimer and Canadian offensive lineman Laurent Duvernay-Tardif.

The most high profile of the three is, of course, Latimer. He caused a stir with an impressive pro day — registering a forty yard dash in the 4.39-4.43 range and recording a 39 inch vertical. He’s since started to appear in multiple first round mock drafts.

Latimer’s virtually taking a tour of the NFL before next months draft — visiting with a whole host of teams. He didn’t do any drills at the combine or his pro day due to a foot injury. This is the first chance anyone gets to really test him.

Although how much of a challenge running routes in shorts will be for such a talented athlete is open to interpretation. Here’s the bottom line with Latimer — he run blocks better than any other receiver in the class, he has incredibly strong and reliable hands and he’s a freakish ‘basketball player’ athlete.

On tape he does it all — drives defenders off the ball in the run game, high points the football, makes spectacular grabs, runs downfield and takes the top off a defense. He even has some special teams involvement — although funnily enough I think he can show a little more intensity in that area given the way he plays on offense.

If he doesn’t go in the first round, I think it’ll be an upset. There’s simply too much upside on offer. He’d be a terrific pick for Seattle at #32.

Zumwalt really made an impression at the Senior Bowl. Here’s Tony Pauline’s three-day assesment of his performance in Mobile:

Day One: Had several nice plays throughout the day. Stomped on a tight end during blocking drills then showed a lot of discipline throughout the rest of the day.

Day Two: Had a “WOW” sort of day. Dominant during blitz drills, showed a lot of skill in pursuit and held his own in coverage. Just a lot to like about his game.

Day Three: Not as effective as yesterday yet played well in all areas. Leaves Senior Bowl practice as a winner.

When I spent a bit of time during the 2013 season watching UCLA to monitor Anthony Barr’s progress — I kept being drawn to Zumwalt. I’m not sure he’s the type of player who will ever develop into a bona fide starter in the NFL — but he’ll be a special teams demon. And hey, I wouldn’t rule out a starting role one day. If it doesn’t happen, it won’t be due to a lack of effort or intensity.

We all know Seattle wants competitive, fiery individuals. That’s Zumwalt. He puts his body on line time and time again. He seems like the type of guy who’s up for any challenge — a dependable tone-setter.

According to Scott Enyeart, he’s also a player Seattle knows all about:

He’s one to keep an eye on in the later rounds or even UDFA. Enyeart also points out he had some injury/concussion issues at UCLA and that could hamper his stock.

And then there’s Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, or ‘LDT’ as the draft community has started to call him. Unsurprisingly there’s not a great deal of McGill University tape available on the internet, but I did manage to find some footage from his pro day:

He’s a medical student from Canada who practised once a week with his team in college. So you’re talking about a guy who’s raw and relatively new to the game. He ran a 4.94-5.08 forty at his pro day, had a 32 inch vertical, a 9.5 in the broad jump and managed 34 reps on the bench press. He’s 6-5 and 320lbs. He also ran a 7.3 three cone and a 4.59 in the short shuttle. Those are all impressive numbers.

Some scouts are grading him in the third or fourth round. Nolan Nawrocki highlights LDT’s, “Stout anchor in pass protection. Violent shock in his punch. Plays with a nasty temperament and seeks to bury defenders into the ground. Aggressive run blocker — runs his feet on contact and plays beyond the whistle.”

Nawrocki also says he can learn to take better angles in pass protection and improve his recovery speed. Clearly there’s something to work with here — but where do you take the guy with so little football experience? Out of all of today’s three visits — LDT’s might be the most important.

One note of caution — according to ESPN he only has 33 inch arms. His body type is that of a guard. That might be his best position at the next level.

Notes on Billy Turner

Today was the first chance I’ve had to watch Turner. I only watched one game (vs Kansas State) but wanted to put a few initial thoughts out there.

Right off the bat you can can tell he’s a strong, combative run blocker. There were several occasions where he drove his man downfield while the rest of the line stalled. When you’re watching a small school prospect you want to see flashes of quality where they just stand out. Turner on numerous occasions looked to be playing at a different level to the rest of his line. That’s to be expected if he’s going to play in the NFL.

I was actually surprised that he only managed 25 reps on the bench press at the combine — because he looks very powerful on tape. Particularly with his initial punch. Maybe it’s a work-out thing coming from a small school? Either way, when I went back to the combine notes I expected to see an extra ten reps.

He has the kind of attitude you want to see (plays to the whistle, drives into the second level, always looking for someone to block). He’s a level headed, well spoken individual.

However, I also saw some key issues that I think will limit his stock.

When I started to write about Joel Bitonio and the Seahawks — people asked what was the difference between Bitonio and Turner. On this evidence, quite a lot. As a pass protector Turner’s technique leaves a lot to be desired. His footwork is all over the place and his kick slide looks clumsy and sluggish. His pad level is inconsistent and too often he overextends and bends at the waist.

He wasn’t exposed against a very average looking Kansas State pass rush. But I’m concerned at the next level he’s going to really struggle against even solid speed rushers. Anyone with a nice get off and a counter will cause him problems.

Bitonio is such a smooth operator in comparison. He glides into pass pro, makes blocking the edge look comfortable and he’s shown genuine ability to shut down leading college edge rushers such as Anthony Barr and the Florida State defensive line. Technically he’s very sound and it compliments the rare athletic potential he showed at the combine.

Often when he comes up against speed he has the ability to just guide the DE/LB out of the play. When he faces a dip inside or counter he can handle it. He doesn’t struggle against the bull rush. Turner isn’t going to be able to set the edge moving like he does in the Kansas State tape. In fact he’s going to watch people run past him, straight into the quarterback.

Comparisons have been made athletically between the two players, but Bitonio had a better broad jump, 10-yard split, forty time and vertical at the combine. Turner had far from a poor work out in Indianapolis — but Bitonio had an explosive performance. So he’s a superior athlete with less of a learning curve from a technique point of view. That’s why, in my eyes, he’ll be a first round pick and Turner won’t be anywhere near that type of grade.

Both players ultimately might end up at guard. And both could end up being very accomplished players at that position. Turner’s footwork will be less of an issue inside and he has the potential to develop into a very good run blocking interior lineman. As long as he isn’t trying to set the edge, he can prosper.

Out of the two — Bitonio has the greater potential to have a shot at playing right tackle and he could act as a backup left tackle. For me, Turner’s a pure guard.

I’ll go back to Pauline’s Senior Bowl notes. This is what he had to say about Turner’s week in Mobile:

Day One: Struggled and had coaches screaming at him. Lined up at right tackle but never seemed to get his feet underneath him. Lacked balance, footwork and not a good start to the week.

Day Two: Not a good day for Turner. Lined up at right tackle and was torched throughout the practice. Consistently beaten like a drum.

Day Three: Played a lot of guard. Was slightly better but in the end did nothing to improve his draft stock. Tough three days for Turner.

Here’s the Kansas State tape. Take a look for yourself and see what you think:

Tomorrow I’ll have a new mock draft on the blog. 23 days to go.

 

Do the Seahawks draft better when they aren’t forcing it?

April 14th, 2014 | Written by Rob Staton

Pete Carroll and John Schneider built a Championship roster in four years

I don’t like using the word ‘reach’. It suggests clumsiness. The reality is all teams ‘reach’. It shouldn’t be considered such a tragic negative.

You’ll hear a GM mention ‘best player available’ during an interview, but every team has goals and aims going into a draft.

The first round is a mix of value and reach. Some teams aggressively pursue needs. That in turn creates value for other clubs.

The 2013 class is a good example of this.

The New York Jets didn’t need Sheldon Richardson. They had a solid defensive line and had recently invested first round picks in Quinton Coples and Muhammad Wilkerson. Richardson wasn’t even an obvious scheme fit as an orthodox looking three technique for a 4-3.

Yet they took him. Why? The value was unbelievable. Arguably the best player in the draft was sitting right there at #13.

Compare this to some of the other picks we saw in round one. Buffalo drafted E.J. Manuel after trading down — having already made their mind up to take a quarterback. The Falcons needed to bolster a weak secondary — and crept up to select Desmond Trufant. The Cowboys, after aggressively moving down to #31, selected center Travis Frederick to fill a vital need.

All of these moves were premeditated. All of these teams knew with a degree of certainty what they were going to do.

They had needs to fill.

If anyone thinks the Seahawks haven’t used this tactic too — they’re mistaken.

*********************

2010 was probably a fun draft for Seattle’s front office. They could pretty much do anything. The roster was a shambles.

Even then they had a very good idea about what they wanted to do in the first round. It’s my understanding at one point in the process they believed there was a chance they could select Eric Berry at #6 and Trent Williams at #14. Williams rose considerably after a fantastic combine and quickly established himself as the top tackle in the class — ending those hopes.

But a tackle/safety combo was the preference if it was possible. It couldn’t have worked out much better for Seattle, with Russell Okung available at #6 and Earl Thomas somehow getting to #14. They got the two key building blocks they wanted in round one.

The rest of the draft seemed to be about value. They had a first round grade on Golden Tate so took him in the late second. Walter Thurmond also received a strong grade and only fell due to injury concerns. They took a low-risk gamble in round four. Kam Chancellor was a raw safety in a linebacker’s body — 5th round. And Pete Carroll picked up Anthony McCoy — a faller due to off-field concerns — in the 6th.

The Seahawks were picking off value and ended up with four contributing players beyond the first round — including two key factors in the Super Bowl run (Tate & Chancellor).

*********************

This apparent tactic of filling needs early and then hunting for value continued in the next two classes, with different results.

In his end of season press conference after the 2010 season, Pete Carroll discussed his unproductive run game. That was going to be Seattle’s identity — and yet they were among the worst in the league at running the football.

They’d brought in Marshawn Lynch and needed to establish a run/power approach on offense. So they went out to draft a really good run blocking offensive lineman. James Carpenter was the left tackle at Alabama as Mark Ingram won a Heisman. He was a road grader — a man mountain who could move people out of the way to create running lanes.

This was filling a need. And at the time — this was the priority. Forget any other position. This is what they had to do — get the running game going.

In hindsight it was no surprise they went after a similar player in round three (after trading down) in John Moffitt. Wisconsin always run the ball well and they clearly hoped Carpenter and Moffitt could combine on the right side to significantly improve the blocking. Robert Gallery was also signed in free agency to play left guard.

This was an aggressive, premeditated ambition of the Seahawks. Not a case of sitting around waiting for the draft to come to them. I liked Carpenter enough to mock him to Philadelphia at #23 in my final 2011 mock draft — so Seattle drafting him at #25 didn’t shock me personally. But were there better players available at other positions?

Sure.

As much as I liked Carpenter, I liked Jimmy Smith (a cornerback from Colorado) even more. Jabaal Sheard looked like an ideal LEO and Colin Kaepernick (yep) was my final mock pick at #25 for the Seahawks.

All three looked like better players — that’s my read on the situation. All would’ve filled needs at the time. But not Carroll’s biggest need.

As we know now the decision to draft Carpenter hasn’t completely paid off. He’s been injured, he’s had to switch positions and his play has been inconsistent. He’s had some extremely sloppy games and was benched for the playoff game against New Orleans. Yet he’s also had consistent success against Justin Smith — one of the top defensive linemen in the NFC.

He faces a potential make or break year in Seattle. Either way he didn’t do what was intended — lock down the right tackle position and become a great run blocker.

When the Seahawks reverted back to value in the later rounds, they once again started to collect starters. K.J. Wright was a steal in round four. The word ‘steal’ doesn’t come close to sufficiently describing the addition of elite cornerback Richard Sherman in round five. Byron Maxwell was a sixth round pick and now starts opposite Sherman, while Malcolm Smith — the Super Bowl MVP — was a seventh round pick.

All of these players filled holes, but all were taken in spots that matched a specific grade. Good scouting, preparation and development turned them into winners. Nothing was forced. For example, had K.J. Wright been drafted before Seattle’s pick in round four would they definitely take another linebacker?

I’m pretty confident Carpenter was one of maybe 4-5 tackles they would’ve taken in round one — ticking them off as they left the board. They knew they’d get one.

*********************

Fast forward to 2012 and another post-season press conference. Carroll is now name-checking speed in the front seven as the priority. So that’s what they go after.

I understand a pass rusher was always the intention in round one and I sense the Seahawks — with Carroll’s ties to Bruce Irvin — always knew what they were going to do. There’s been talk of interest in Mark Barron and Luke Kuechly — but teams know how a draft will likely play out in the first 10-15 picks long before the first pick. They’ll have known neither player was going to fall to them, making (I suspect) the Irvin pick all the more predictable in the front office.

We’ll never know whether interest in Irvin elsewhere was legit. The Seahawks claimed afterwards that other teams would’ve drafted Irvin in round one right after them. The Jets were revealed as a possibility — a rumour they later denied. It was called a ‘reach’ given Irvin’s main role as a third down specialist for West Virginia. Yet he filled the crucial need Seattle identified. That’s why they drafted him — not necessarily because they thought he was the absolutely best player available at the time.

The stars aligned to add more speed in the front seven in round two. Bobby Wagner — a player many mocked to the late first round (including ourselves) lasted until #47. Great value — and while they probably intended to draft a linebacker here, I doubt they would’ve forced it had Wagner and Lavonte David both been off the board.

After that they got Russell Wilson in round three, a pick that kind of worked out I guess. In all seriousness that was a classic example of patience and preparation. Seattle believed they could wait to get him — to hunt for the value. Waiting on Wilson shows they weren’t forcing anything later on. They were willing to miss out on him altogether to make sure they got the right value. Wagner and possibly missing out on Wilson was considered superior to Wilson and definitely no Wagner.

Robert Turbin filled a hole in round four — they needed a backup to support Lynch. Then more value — Jeremy Lane in round six, J.R. Sweezy and Gregg Scruggs in round seven are the best examples.

Once again when the Seahawks were letting the board come to them and searching for value — the results were very positive. Although as with Carpenter — Irvin so far as the early pick hasn’t delivered as expected. He went from “the ideal LEO” (in Carroll’s words) to a project linebacker in the space of a year. Now he’s on Twitter pining for a return to defensive end, while Dan Quinn says in an interview he’s staying put. Who knows what the future holds there.

It just occurs to me that it might not be a coincidence why Seattle has had more success in the later rounds. They’ve found a franchise quarterback, a lockdown corner, the best strong safety in football and some other pieces in rounds 3-7. Their two first round picks since 2011 haven’t prospered as hoped (although nobody’s writing them off just yet).

And sure — they haven’t hit on every mid or later round pick. But you’re picking from a much smaller talent pool compared to the first round. You’re not going to nail every choice.

(NOTE: I’ve not included the 2013 class here because it’s still too early to judge — and most players were redshirted anyway.)

*********************

The point of this piece isn’t to say the Seahawks should just go BPA at #32 next month and they’ll get another elite talent. That’s too simplistic.

But it’s perhaps a cautionary note that while we as fans pine for that offensive lineman or big receiver — trying aggressively to fill needs early doesn’t always pan out for the best.

So maybe if a player at a different, lesser need position falls — Seattle should consider it instead of simply drafting the next best OT or WR?

After all — the Seahawks aren’t trying to build a Championship roster any more. They’re trying to maintain one. They have less needs than most. And as we’ve seen this off-season — a certain degree of planning is required to anticipate needs in future years, not just now.

They lost Golden Tate in March. They’ll lose other guys too.

Perhaps you do run the risk of missing out altogether on addressing vital needs? But isn’t that just an opportunity for the Michael Bowie’s, Alvin Bailey’s or whoever else to step up?

While I still think it’s likely they go OT or WR at #32 and possibly #64 too — it doesn’t mean they need to feel backed into a corner either. And with a longer list of prospective free agents in 2015 and 2016 — some forward planning could be crucial.

 

Ryan Shazier is a Seahawks wildcard

April 12th, 2014 | Written by Rob Staton

I’m working away this weekend but I wanted to get this tape out there anyway as part of a quick blog post.

This is Ryan Shazier versus Indiana. And I think this will allay some of the fears people have about his ability to be an impact player at the next level.

His official stat line for the game is: 19 tackles, five tackles for a loss and a sack. In his own words, “I just had a monster game. It was just ridiculous.”

Just watch this video. Watch it. Tell me you’re not impressed when you put it next to the tape above. Go on. I dare you. Resist being impressed.

For me he’s a rare player. 4.38 speed, a 42 inch vertical — and yet he hits like a ton of bricks. He’ll move sideline-to-sideline, he can drop into coverage and he can blitz. He was the heart and soul of the Ohio State defense last year — the ultimate tone setter.

I’d take him in the top-20. A team like St. Louis at #13 could easily take him — as could Arizona at #20.

The performance vs Indiana vindicates that type of grade in my opinion.

Yes he’ll need protecting by scheme. His best fit at the next level is probably the WILL. Let him play in space. Use his range. Limit the one true negative in his game (getting off blocks) and pump up the athletic qualities.

I can’t see him making it to #32 — but I’d have no problem drafting him in that spot. You can’t have enough players like this. And while a linebacker in round one isn’t a pressing need for the Seahawks unless K.J. Wright and Malcolm Smith both walk in free agency next year — a trio of Wright, Bobby Wagner and Shazier would have the makings of a legendary group.

Shazier actually name-checked Wagner as a player he admires. They share similar tendencies. Putting the three of them on the field would be an antidote to Colin Kaepernick running all over Seattle as he did in the first half of the NFC Championship game.

I still think we’re looking at a receiver or an offensive lineman at #32 — but I’m not ruling out a possible wildcard like this.

Shazier’s a rare talent — and if he makes it to #32 — there’d have to be an exceptional wideout or tackle available to stop me pulling the trigger.

 

Friday draft notes: DGB, QB’s, trades and Cassius Marsh

April 11th, 2014 | Written by Rob Staton

Green-Beckham is a superb athlete. He’s 6-6 and 225lbs, won state high school championships in the 100 meters and the triple jump and he was one of the top recruits in the country when he committed to Missouri.

Even in a losing effort he looked like the best player on the field in the SEC Championship game last season. He was a first round pick before he played even a snap of college football.

And now? Who knows.

He’s had several issues during his time at Missouri, but this latest one — detailed by ESPN’s Edward Aschoff — appears to be the straw that broke the camels back:

Green-Beckham was the subject of an investigation by Columbia, Mo., police this week after an 18-year-old Missouri student said the receiver forced open her apartment door at 2:30 a.m. Sunday while trying to see his girlfriend, a friend of the alleged victim.

The woman said Green-Beckham pushed her down at least four stairs.

Another roommate told police the 6-foot-6, 225-pound athlete pushed the first woman with two hands to the chest. Later that night, the two told a detective they didn’t want to press charges, and police closed the case Thursday without an arrest.

Green-Beckham has two prior marijuana-related arrests. In January, Green-Beckham and two other men were arrested after Springfield, Mo., police found a pound of marijuana in their car. No charges were filed in that case.

In October 2012, Green-Beckham, then a freshman, was charged with marijuana possession in Columbia and later pleaded guilty to second-degree trespassing after he and two teammates were reportedly smoking marijuana in a campus parking lot. Green-Beckham was suspended for one game after that arrest.

Gary Pinkel, Missouri’s Head Coach, says “Dorial’s priority going forward needs to be focusing on getting the help he needs.”

I suspect he’ll join up with a smaller school and play football next year — in an attempt to prove to NFL teams he’s a ‘changed man’. Several players have gone down this road. None have been able to maintain their lofty position as a high pick.

It’s particularly frustrating when it’s a player as good as Green-Beckham. He had all the tools to be an elite NFL receiver. What a complete waste of talent to get involved in issues such as this.

He’s also made sure fans of every NFL team in the world will spend the entire draft process next year asking whether their team will be the one “to give him a chance.”

Because that type of conversation never gets boring.

Carr rising, Bridgewater falling?

Chris Mortensen is reporting good news for Derek Carr, but not so good news for Teddy Bridgewater:

This follows a trend that has lasted for a few weeks now.

It shouldn’t really surprise anyone.

Bridgewater’s a pretty good quarterback. Is he special? Is he even going to be ‘pretty good’ in the NFL? I can’t answer that. And neither can I get excited about him leading my franchise if I’m a team needing a QB.

That’s not to say I’d be one of the teams potentially drafting Derek Carr instead between picks 8-20. I wouldn’t do that. I’d rather wait and take my chances on developing Tom Savage or Logan Thomas in a later round (if I was the GM of a patient team, of course).

But Carr has the arm. Teams who want to run a conventional high percentage passing game will feel he’s a good fit. Minnesota with Norv Turner, Arizona with Bruce Arians. Carr is much more suited to that type of offense. And they’re two of the teams in that 8-20 range that theoretically will look for a quarterback.

I’ve long thought Bridgewater was a more accomplished version of Andy Dalton — who went in the early second round. He’s in that mould of pretty good technical passer who will probably make mistakes at the next level while also winning you football games. That type of player is always seen as better value in round two — for whatever reason.

And hey — there are probably teams in 2011 who wished they’d drafted Dalton in round one despite his flaws. There will be teams who end up feeling that way about Bridgewater if he drops into round two.

But I get why it might happen. I get why Carr could be drafted first.

Personally I wouldn’t be rushing to the podium to get either player.

Maybe a team like Cleveland jumps up to go after Carr? They’ve reportedly got a lot of interest there.

And maybe, as we’ll go into in a moment, we’ll end up seeing more trades in round one than we ever anticipated?

Teams covet Mike Evans

According to Tony Pauline, the team who takes receiver Mike Evans will likely be trading up to get him:

Based on conversations its my educated “guess” the team who selects Evans will make a trade to acquire his services.

Right now it looks like three teams are the frontrunners to make some sort of move for Evans. If the St Louis Rams trade out of the second spot, and they will make every effort to do as much, Evans would be a target assuming they stay in the top ten.

Two teams selecting in the middle of the first frame who are very high on Evans and would consider trading up to grab him are the Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens.

Pauline also reports several teams have Zach Martin graded higher than Taylor Lewan

On the trade talk — it’s interesting how many potential deals are currently being discussed. Here’s a breakdown of all the rumours doing the rounds:

– The Texans and Rams both want to trade down from #1 and #2

– The Jacksonville Jaguars are also showing interest in trading down from #3

– The Detroit Lions might be prepared to trade up for Sammy Watkins

– The Falcons are interested in moving up

– Philadelphia and Baltimore might be willing to trade up for Mike Evans

For me Watkins and Evans are about as safer picks as you can get in this class — particularly if you have a quarterback like Matt Stafford or an offense like Philadelphia’s.

It makes a lot of sense to move up and target them, even in a deep draft. Teams have to be prepared to be pro-active. This great class isn’t just about depth — it’s about top tier talent.

The worst value in this draft might come in the 13-23 range in the first round. You miss out on the top 10-12 prospects, and players who would be considered great value at 25-32 might not look quite so attractive to a team like Baltimore at #17.

We might end up seeing a perfect storm for movement — with rebuilding teams like the Jaguars collecting picks and sides like the Ravens going for a big-time addition.

Either way, don’t rule out the possibility of several moves within the first round. It could happen.

Seahawks meet with UCLA prospect

Marsh is 6-4 and 252lbs — he ran a 4.89 at the combine but managed a 1.66 10-yard split. He had a 32-inch vertical.

Here’s some 2013 tape vs New Mexico State:

 

Looking at Seattle’s options using Todd McShay’s mock

April 10th, 2014 | Written by Rob Staton

This screen grab has to be top five on the errr... screen grab big board

The thing about a mock draft is, it’s dominated by your own opinions and grades.

According to the Huddle Report rankings for 2013 — the #1 placed mock had 12 correct matches (team & player) and guessed 26 of the 32 players drafted in round one.

So really any mock is lucky to hit on 8-10 matches come draft day.

And that means when I put together my weekly projections, I might be taking players off the board that could be available at #32.

For that reason I wanted to look at Todd McShay’s latest mock for ESPN and see who was left at the end of round one.

You’ll need an Insider account to see the full two rounds, but here’s a list of some of the players who were gone by #32:

Morgan Moses (T, Virginia) — drafted by Miami at #19
Odell Beckham Jr (WR, LSU) — drafted by Green Bay at #21
Cody Latimer (WR, Indiana) — drafted by Kansas City at #23
Kelvin Benjamin (WR, Florida State) — drafted by Cleveland at #26
Joel Bitonio (T, Nevada) — drafted by Carolina at #28
Ra’Shede Hageman (DT, Minnesota) — drafted by Denver at #31

McShay had the Seahawks taking Xavier Su’a-Filo (G, UCLA) at #32. It’s a popular pick among national pundits but one I’m pretty sceptical about.

I highly doubt the Seahawks will take a pure guard in round one. Right tackle is a much greater need and any player drafted that early is going to need to be versatile enough to play multiple spots. Su’a-Filo played some tackle in college but projects as a pure guard in the NFL.

But more than anything I just think his tape is really hit and miss. Against Stanford — a game Daniel Jeremiah talked up on the NFL Network this week — I thought he got shoved around and actually looked a bit of a liability at times.

I don’t expect the Seahawks or anyone else to draft Su’a-Filo in round one. So who else might they target if McShay’s projection is fairly accurate from picks 1-31?

Here’s some of the other players who were still on the board that I included in my first round mock draft yesterday:

Ryan Shazier (LB, Ohio State)
McShay has Shazier leaving the board at #43 to the New York Giants
For me there are two issues with Shazier amid a ton of positives. Firstly, he’s not the biggest. He weighed 237lbs at the combine and looked in the best shape of his life at the Ohio State pro day. Yet on the field it looks like he played at a lighter weight (possibly in the late 220′s). Keeping the weight on during training camp and a long season might be a struggle for Shazier, and it could limit his role at the next level. He isn’t going to be playing middle linebacker in the 3-4 at the size he played in college.

The second issue is somewhat linked — his ability to get off a block and avoid traffic. Consistently on tape he gets swallowed up by blocks — it happens time and time again and becomes quite frustrating. It takes away his range and effectiveness. Any team that drafts him needs to protect him via scheme. The Seahawks would be a great fit, using him at the WILL and allowing him to roam the field and make plays in space.

On the plus side he’s a tenacious player who flies to the ball carrier, hits like a ton of bricks, he’s an effective blitzer and he’ll be a dynamo in coverage. Shazier’s a tone setter on defense and in the right scheme he’ll be a playmaker who forces turnovers.

Linebacker isn’t a massive need but with K.J. Wright and Malcolm Smith both free agents next year and Bruce Irvin potentially returning to the LEO — Shazier’s 4.3 speed and 42 inch vertical screams ‘Seahawks’. It’s just whether they feel the value’s there with a first round pick. Do they need to draft a linebacker that high?

Anthony Barr (DE, UCLA)
McShay has Barr leaving the board at #36 to Oakland
It wouldn’t be a shock if Barr dropped into round two. Despite a lot of generous talk during the college season — he’s ‘steak tartare’ as a pass rusher. He’s still learning his craft and developing the necessary skills to be an effective defensive end or outside linebacker. He has no counter move or upper body technique. He doesn’t use his hands effectively at all. There’s a degree of ‘hit and hope’ to his tape where he tries to win with athleticism and if it doesn’t work — well it doesn’t work.

Nobody would really mind any of this if he flashed special athletic qualities and the potential to be great. Yet at the combine he ran a 4.66, had a decent but not sparkling 34.5 inch vertical and a 9.11 broad jump. None of those numbers stand out. He’s essentially a decent project who might need a redshirt year.

First of all he has to get stronger. He needs to be able to win a hands battle and get off a block. He must develop a bull rush. At the very least he needs some counter moves — he can’t just wing it off the edge.

I’m not sure the Seahawks would be all that interested in adding another developmental pass rusher. They’d have to really buy into the 4.44 Jim Mora ‘reported’ from the UCLA pro day. Without that 4.4 speed he’s probably not even really considered at #32. With it, he becomes a lot more intriguing. But I suspect the Seahawks might be turned off by the lack of gritty competitive spirit to win 1v1 or the dynamic speed to be a constant headache even as a rookie.

Martavis Bryant (WR, Clemson) & Donte Moncrief (WR, Ole Miss)
McShay has Bryant leaving the board at #63 to Denver, Moncrief isn’t listed in rounds one or two
There’s every chance McShay hasn’t really delved into the tape on these two players yet. In this new projection he admits on Cody Latimer, “(I) was blown away by his game when I finally got to study his tape recently.” Latimer immediately leapt into the first round at #23. If McShay is yet to really get into the Bryant and Moncrief games, they too could be set for a big rise.

Personally I think both players are destined to be, at worst, early second round picks. There’s just too much potential. Moncrief suffered badly in a bizarrely structured Rebels offense that tries to do a bit of everything and just lacks any type of cohesion. The quarterback Bo Wallace has never really recovered from shoulder surgery and is highly inaccurate. He also wasn’t helped by being constantly spelled by a read option replacement.

Yet you still see real flashes of upside in Moncrief. He chews up a cushion better than most receivers in this class, shows a terrific break on the football and he can really fly for a +220lbs receiver (4.40). He also has an impressive vertical (39.5 inches). There are no character concerns and he’s also shown a willingness to get involved as a blocker. There’s a lot to work with here and definite #1 potential.

That’s not to say he can’t improve. He needs to do show stronger hands in certain situations and the quality of his blocking is often dictated by whether he’s simply in the mood.

Bryant had a wake-up call to end the 2012 season after he was left at home for the Chick-fil-A Bowl against LSU. He has a young daughter and had an epiphany moment while watching the game on TV. He knew he was wasting an opportunity to provide for his family and made a point of re-focusing, going to class and working on his craft. The results were impressive and he had a big impact in 2013 as Nuke Hopkins’ replacement.

At times he looked like a Diet Randy Moss. He’s 6-4, 211lbs and runs a 4.42. He’s a dynamic downfield target who can run away from defenders. He too eats up a cushion quickly and breaks on the ball with vigour. All Clemson wide outs are well coached — and you see that in the way he sells a deep route and cracks back to the quarterback for a little inside break. It’s only when you really study the tape that you realise how inaccurate and sloppy Tajh Boyd is. Bryant suffered at the hands of his QB on several occasions.

The big question with Bryant is whether he’ll continue to work when the pay cheques start coming in or whether he’ll simmer down having accomplished his mission of supporting his daughter. If you can keep the fire burning — watch out. He could be special.

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Apart from these four, the only other players I had in my mock yesterday that McShay didn’t include in the first round are Derek Carr (QB, Fresno State) and Chris Borland (LB, Wisconsin). So there are some similarities.

And it goes to show there will be a nice option for the Seahawks at #32. It just might not be a player many expect — such as a Shazier for example. In fact using McShay’s mock you could come out of the draft with Shazier and Moncrief as your first two picks.

That’d be a pretty explosive double dip for the Seahawks. Presumably they’d spend the rest of the draft digging for offensive line depth (plus the annual cornerback pick in round five or six).

Even the biggest proponent of offensive line investment would probably struggle to complain if Seattle brings in Shazier and Moncrief with their first two picks.