Expect Luke Wypler to be on Seattle’s radar
The Seahawks will probably draft one of two centers
The blocking scheme they’ve adopted calls for a certain type of center — and Ohio State’s Luke Wypler is the perfect fit. In signing Austin Blythe a year ago Seattle made it clear they were seeking to emulate the Rams under new line-coach Andy Dickerson. Blythe was shorter with a lower centre of gravity for leverage purposes, he had great agility (short shuttle), a wrestling background and size around 6-2, 300lbs.
Wypler ticks every box. His short shuttle (the best of any center) was a 4.53 — the exact same as Blythe’s. He’s 6-2 1/2 and 303lbs. He wrestled in High School. At his combine press conference he was asked who he compares to in the league and without hesitation he said Brian Allen the current Rams center — noting he was perfectly suited to the scheme and had been studying it this off-season.
His personality also screams ‘John Schneider’. It’s hard to explain why, so just watch him speak. His sense of humour and character is right up Schneider’s street. I’m sure they’ll have also noted how well he played against Jalen Carter in the CFB playoffs — a game they’ll have no doubt been monitoring Carter.
There isn’t a player I’m more confident projecting to the Seahawks. It’s a perfect scheme, measurable and physical profile fit. I wouldn’t be surprised if they make sure they come away with Wypler by taking him a little bit earlier than the consensus for his stock. That could be with the #53 pick.
The only thing that gives me pause for thought is an alternative in John Michael Schmitz. He too has the same wrestling background. He’s 6-3 and 301lbs. His short shuttle was a 4.56. He’s also perfectly suited to this scheme. If they prefer Schmitz on tape — they could go with him instead. That is a distinct possibility.
Either way, my expectation has shifted after the combine. I’ve gone from thinking they might be inclined to invest in a veteran like Garrett Bradbury or Jake Brendel to solidify the position, to now thinking they’ll make sure they come out of this draft with one of Wypler or Schmitz. They are ideally suited and they’ll likely be available in a range where Seattle picks. I’d put decent money on one of these two landing with the Seahawks on day two of the draft.
The tight end class
Sometimes it’s hard to narrow things down to simply a name or two, you’ve got to list virtually a full class of players.
We’ve spent a lot of time over the years highlighting what the Seahawks like at tight end. Agility testing (short shuttle, three-cone) seems to be a big focus. Here are the players Seattle has drafted, signed or acquired in the Carroll/Schneider era:
Luke Willson — 4.29 (ss), 7.08 (3c)
Will Dissly — 4.40 (ss), 7.07 (3c)
Nick Vannett — 4.20 (ss), 7.05 (3c)
Anthony McCoy — 4.57 (ss), 6.99 (3c)
Zach Miller — 4.42 (ss), 7.01 (3c)
Jimmy Graham — 4.45 (ss), 6.90 (3c)
Greg Olsen — 4.48 (ss), 7.04 (3c)
Colby Parkinson — 4.46 (ss), 7.15 (3c)
Gerald Everett — 4.33 (ss), 6.99 (3c)
Noah Fant — 4.22 (ss), 6.81 (3c)
I branched out this year to include a trend that involves 10-yard splits. It seems the top tight ends in the modern NFL all excel in the splits and short shuttle:
Rob Gronkowski — 1.58 (10), 4.47 (ss)
Travis Kelce — 1.61 (10), 4.42 (ss)
George Kittle — 1.59 (10), 4.55 (ss)
Mark Andrews — 1.54 (10), 4.38 (ss)
Dallas Goedert — unknown (10), 4.31 (ss)
Zach Erz — 1.64 (10), 4.47 (ss)
T.J. Hockenson — 1.63 (10), 4.18 (ss)
David Njoku — 1.61 (10), 4.34 (ss)
The 2023 tight end class has several players who tested as well as the names above. Only seven individuals ran a short shuttle and these were the results (I’ve included their 10-yard splits too):
Darnell Washington — 1.57 (10), 4.08 (ss)
Zack Kuntz — 1.57 (10), 4.12 (ss)
Sam LaPorta — 1.59 (10), 4.25 (ss)
Luke Schoonmaker — 1.59 (10), 4.27 (ss)
Tucker Kraft — 1.59 (10), 4.29 (ss)
Brayden Willis — DNR (10), 4.36 (ss)
Brenton Strange — 1.57 (10), 4.46 (ss)
LaPorta also ran a blistering 6.91 three-cone, with Kraft running a 7.08.
There are other players who ran excellent splits — Luke Musgrave (1.54), Will Mallory (1.59), Davis Allen (1.60), Payne Durham (1.61) and Josh Whyle (1.62) — who didn’t run a short shuttle. We might be able to add them to the list if they do agility testing at their pro-day.
I appreciate tight end isn’t an immediate need but you’re not always drafting for the here and now. Noah Fant and Colby Parkinson are both free agents next year. Drafting a tight end in a good TE class, with an eye to the future, makes sense. Especially when there are players available on day two who have physical attributes comparable to the best in the league.
Players like LaPorta and Schoonmaker could be attractive in the round three range. Tucker Kraft will likely go in round two. After his testing performance on Saturday, don’t be surprised if Darnell Washington goes a lot earlier than people think. T.J. Hockenson went in the top-10 after running a 4.18 short shuttle at 251lbs. Washington ran his 4.08 at 264lbs — and ran a faster forty (4.64 vs 4.70) and 10-yard split (1.57 vs 1.64). He could easily be a top-20 pick.
I’ll also highlight Michael Mayer at this point. He is an exceptional player with 10/10 character and attitude. He’s a complete tight end. I’m not sure whether a 1.66 10-yard split will get anyone excited (and he didn’t do any agility testing) but if he’s available at #20 — I think you have to consider him purely based on talent.
The three quarterbacks
I asked this question yesterday and I’m going to ask it again today.
How is John Schneider not coming out of the draft with one of Anthony Richardson, Will Levis or C.J. Stroud?
We know Schneider loves traits. It’s public knowledge that he coveted Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes — even when he had prime Russell Wilson.
Wilson himself had excellent traits (big arm, athletic). Schneider traded a lot to acquire Charlie Whitehurst (big arm, athletic) and was willing to take on Drew Lock when he dealt Wilson to Denver (big arm, athletic).
All of these players carried question marks. Schneider focused on talent and potential. At no point was he swayed by perceived flaws.
It’s easy to forget today because Allen and particularly Mahomes have turned into two of the best players in the NFL — but at draft time they were both considered risky project types.
Here’s an article on NFL.com written by Lance Zierlein, discussing Allen during the 2017 college football season:
The scoop: “He scares me like he scares everyone, but he is easily the most physically talented quarterback (in this class). He will get drafted much higher than the level of his tape.” — AFC director of college scouting on Wyoming QB Josh Allen
The skinny: Listed at 6-foot-5, 233 pounds and with high-end arm talent, Allen is the prototype at the quarterback position. However, Allen’s production has been very pedestrian this season (181 yards passing per game, 55.9 percent completion rate, 12 TDs and 6 INTs in 8 games).
His accuracy and decision making are not where they need to be. In comparison, Carson Wentz had very similar physical traits and ability coming out of North Dakota State. He was the No. 2 overall selection of the 2016 draft, but his accuracy and football intelligence were exceptionally high. Coincidentally, Allen’s coach (Craig Bohl) helped groom Wentz at NDSU before being hired at Wyoming.
Allen might make a substantial leap forward with better talent surrounding him than what he’s working with at Wyoming. However, I’m not ready to say he’s a franchise quarterback at this juncture.
“He scares everyone” is the kind of thing you might hear about Anthony Richardson and Will Levis. Ditto the production, accuracy and decision making concerns and the feeling they aren’t ready.
As it happens, Allen’s physical talent was so enormous that he simply rose to the NFL occasion after a two-year learning curve. He has made the Bills a legitimate team after years of mediocrity and is beloved by fans.
With Mahomes, I noted a similar pre-draft sentiment in this article in December:
Patrick Mahomes wasn’t even listed in Daniel Jeremiah’s top-50 prospects in his February list ahead of the 2017 draft. That wouldn’t be so bad — but in an updated version in April, Mahomes still wasn’t listed in the top-50.
Deshone Kizer, however, was ranked on both occasions.
In Jeremiah’s April 2017 mock draft, he eventually did include Mahomes in round one — at #27 overall. Deshaun Watson wasn’t included in the first frame. They ended up being the #10 and #12 picks respectively.
Mahomes himself revealed he was given a second round grade by the draft committee.
The excellent Lance Zierlein graded Mahomes at a 6.30 — a lower grade than Drew Lock (6.40). In his report, Zierlein noted:
“Mahomes will be a work in progress, but he’s a high ceiling, low floor prospect.”
These are two players who, by all accounts, Schneider loved. They were flawed but they had supreme physical talent. And he wanted them.
Anthony Richardson is 6-4 and 244lbs with 10 1/2 inch hands. He ran a 4.43 forty (second only to RGIII for a quarterback since 2003). He had a 40.5 inch vertical and a 10-9 broad jump (both new records). He is uniquely gifted as a physical talent with the potential to be a ‘face of the NFL’ type player. He does things on a football field barely anyone else can do.
Will Levis is 6-4 and 229lbs. He jumped a 34-inch vertical and a 10-4 broad. He has unbelievable 10 5/8 inch hands. He possesses a cannon arm and like Richardson, has plays on tape that most other humans simply cannot do:
Will Levis & Anthony Richardson can do things most QB’s can’t.
The draft is about projection. We’ll see today why both are worthy of the #5 pick. Seattle will be lucky if either is there.
The video below, on Levis, highlights this #Seahawks pic.twitter.com/HdoWAJJLyu
— Rob Staton (@robstaton) March 4, 2023
C.J. Stroud is 6-3 and 214lbs with 10 inch hands. He might not have the extreme physical tools like Richardson and Levis — yet he still has a strong arm, he throws with complete control and his touch passing (short and long range) is the best we’ve seen in college football since I started writing the blog in 2008. His performance against Georgia was an absolute masterclass and it’s not unfair to suggest it was ‘Mahomes-esque’.
There’s one other thing to mention — all three players have outstanding character.
I cannot stress how rare it is to have three players like this in the same draft class. For all the hand-wringing about the flaws with this trio — not enough time is being dedicated to their massive upside. Whisper it quietly — but we could be seeing the next Allen, Justin Herbert and Mahomes entering the league.
I can’t believe for a second that Schneider — with his history of quarterbacks — isn’t looking at these three and feeling, with this rare opportunity, he has to have one of them. They basically look like three made-to-order quarterbacks specifically for Seattle’s GM. The idea he’s going to say ‘no thanks — give me an expensive Geno and another first round Big-12 defender instead’ just doesn’t compute.
I know it’s a taboo subject for many fans who won’t hear anything other than ‘Geno Smith is the guy’. If you’re in that camp — humour me for one moment. Schneider was seemingly willing to move on from prime Russell Wilson — in his peak — to draft Mahomes in 2017. He was willing to trade Wilson in 2018 to select Allen as a replacement.
Further to that — they paid Matt Flynn a handsome contract (by 2012 standards) to be the starter. Then they drafted Russell Wilson and basically gave him the keys, rendering the investment in Flynn a total waste. It was a ruthless, aggressive move.
Do you honestly think he won’t be prepared to pass on paying Geno Smith a fortune to draft a quarterback he loves? Or at least structure a deal that creates a ‘bridge’ environment, rather than fully commit to Geno and ignore the quarterbacks who perfectly fit the Schneider prototype?
The idea that when presented with a top-five pick for the first time ever — with three quarterbacks who appear to suit Schneider down to the ground — he’s going to say, ‘nope — we have a journeyman who turns 33 this year who had one good season, so now we’re going to ignore these QB’s and build around him’. That seems fanciful.
Mike Sando conducted an ‘insider’ mock draft for the Athletic. Anthony Richardson was placed at #5 to Seattle:
“Seattle might take a quarterback,” an exec who has competed against Seattle in the NFC West said.
If that were the case, who might the Seahawks like?
“Probably Anthony Richardson — big, athletic guy who can run,” this exec reasoned.
Levis would also be available under this scenario.
“I like Anthony Richardson better than Levis, and I don’t think I’m the only GM who feels this way,” a GM said.
“I could see (Seahawks GM) John (Schneider) liking Richardson a lot,” another GM said. “He hasn’t started much and didn’t really carry his team but is a freak talent.”
The problem, of course, is all three QB’s could be off the board by #5.
Which begs the question — are the Seahawks willing to be aggressive?
A commenter on our YouTube stream on Sunday suggested the Seahawks should strike to go and get their man. They called for Schneider to ‘pay the iron price’ to do what it takes. Trade up.
Is he prepared to?
I don’t think it’s as unrealistic as people think. The Seahawks are an aggressive team for the most part. If they left Indianapolis feeling like ‘we have to have one of these guys’ then I don’t think it’s far-fetched that they’ll see it like this:
1. When are we going to be picking fifth overall again, making it easier to move up because we can offer a top-five pick in return?
2. When are we going to have the 2023 stock to make it less painful to trade up, meaning we don’t have to mortgage the future?
3. How much is it going to cost to trade up from the #15-20 spot if we need to get a QB in 2024 or 2025 and we’re not in the top-10, without the extra picks we have now?
4. When are we ever going to have a draft class with three ‘Schneider prototypes’ sitting there at the top of round one?
5. Having picks is great but the key is also to have outstanding players. If we think these QB’s can be outstanding players, why not go and get one? Especially when you see the impact of having an exceptional QB and how that has transformed teams like Buffalo and Cincinnati — two perennial bottom-feeders.
6. Can you make an argument that a return of Charles Cross, Boye Mafe, a potential franchise QB, Shelby Harris, Noah Fant and Drew Lock is a good return on the Wilson trade? Having #20 and #38 is great — but is that haul sufficient to say ‘job done’? If you turn Wilson into a franchise QB, a left tackle and a pass rusher, plus some veterans — isn’t that all you can ask for?
7. What’s more likely to get you to greatness? Being bold for one of these QB’s, building around them and having extra money to spend on defense? Or is it paying Geno Smith $30-35m and hoping, aged 33, he can play at a consistently good level for the foreseeable future — while having less to spend on the rest of the roster, hoping that you can draft a great team around him while picking in the teens and 20’s?
This is all a moot-point if one of the three physical phenoms lasts to #5. That’s not too far fetched. Bryce Young could still be one of the top-two quarterbacks drafted. It would only take one team to draft Young in the top-four, plus it would require either Chicago or Arizona sticking in that range and selecting a defender for one of Richardson, Stroud or Levis to reach the fifth pick.
Trading up takes away the mystery though. You can proceed without concern or anxiety. You can plan accordingly through free agency.
I’m not suggesting it should happen — simply that I think it’s a conversation worth having post-combine.
The counter-argument is whether you can live with a ‘worst-case scenario’. That sounds negative — but a worst case scenario isn’t actually all that troublesome. If Richardson, Levis and Stroud go in the top-four, you’re still guaranteed one of Young, Will Anderson or Tyree Wilson.
Anderson is a good player with exceptional character. Wilson has interesting traits. Young is wonderfully gifted but the concerns about his size are legit. None of these players are in the same bracket as Richardson, Levis and Stroud for upside.
I think John Schneider will be all-in on the quarterbacks at the top of this draft. I think Pete Carroll might be too (this was an interesting note from ESPN). We’ve said all along — if that were the case, Schneider should take one. He has enough money in the bank to trust his decision making at this position. I wonder if, in the coming weeks, he’s going to ask for faith from the fanbase to pursue the long-term future of this team.
A lot of 12’s don’t want to consider it. If you follow the evidence, though, it leads you to the conclusion that the Seahawks — and Schneider in particular — will probably be desperate to get one of these three.
I’ll be hosting a live stream with Robbie at 12pm PT to discuss plenty of Seahawks & draft related topics. You can watch here:
If you enjoy the blog and appreciate what we do — why not consider supporting the site via Patreon — (click here)
Derek Carr to Saints… Let’s see what happens with Daniel Jones and how it shifts the QB tiles
Does Tampa counter by overpaying for…er, signing Geno?
This actually sucks, I was hoping he’d land with the Panthers to rule them out for trading up!
That’s a good shout. Would have been nice had that transpired.
I agree Robbie. I just saw the numbers on it and it looks like it’s a four year deal for $150M. $100M guaranteed.
That puts AAV at $37.5M. I can’t see Geno making any more than that. I truly hope we do not pay GS $30M.
Actually, depending on more detail, it might make Carr’s deal in the $25 million/year range, right? It’s four years, and the “only” guaranteed money is $100 million….
Upset in my opinion, should drive up the market for QB’s. I thought the Saints would sit out, and clearly wrong on that! With the division as open as it is, good for them. Good landing spot for him, no New York media that might have eaten him alive, not having to get paychecks from Dan Snyder. Pressure for Carolina to trade up and the Jets to do something grows just a little bit.
Eventually we should start hearing Geno’s name in other markets right? Right??
Listening to other podcasts in the Seahawks Blogosphere I think people’s gears are starting to shift to draft a QB is an option. Talk of “We aren’t gonna be drafting this high again, Schneider’s comment, I guess it is a better class” and then a switch goes off and they revert to saying but we gotta take a D-lineman right??
And then there’s, “look we got to pay Geno, right and who are the seahawks competing with to sign him *crickets*, awkward silence” and then it’s RIGHT BACK to there’s no way he signs for less than “X” large number.
It’s starting to shift. I think there’s a path where resigning Geno and not drafting a QB happens, sure it’s not my favorite, but listening to folks act like drafting a QB would be an affront to the football gods is wild. I’d predict over the next week a lot pieces will be coming out mentioning the Seahawks as more of an option for a QB.
Saints went into this season $60+ million over the cap.
//smacks forehead
Hey cha, i know you have gone over this before but how is this possible. I fell like the saints are always doing this but we somehow are never able to. I know the Saints never made it back to the super bowl but i felt they had really stacked teams with that final drew brees run over 3 years. I always wondered why the seahawks didn’t do it with Wilson over his final stretch, our team was so conservative with it’s cap.
Treating the cap like your own personal chew toy is a choice. The Saints do it because it is an organizational philosophy. The ownership group is willing to constantly write huge bonus checks to assist in restructuring to get under the cap.
A big secret sauce behind these teams (Saints, Rams, Eagles) that are extremely aggressive on the cap is that they draft very, very well. (I’m also counting the Rams using their #1’s to get top veterans in trade). They go for cornerstone players and frequently hit on them.
Do yourself a favor and google the Saints 2017 draft class. The stuff of dreams.
When you have cornerstone players – guys you know will be around for years AND be productive – you can restructure their contracts and it does not kill you on the field. It is critical because when you restructure, you convert non-guaranteed salary to guaranteed bonus money. You better like the guy and get a good return on him, because they’re going to be around for a while.
The Seahawks have not drafted well. They just haven’t. And on top of that, their big trades were not for cornerstone players, but high-skill cherry-topper type players like Jimmy Graham, Percy Harvin and Jamal Adams. The lasting impact is just not there.
The other challenge is the way the Seahawks of late have acquired their talent. You can’t rework a two-year contract and gain a ton of money. And they have 2 and 3 year deals all over their roster, so there’s little room to work with on that front.
On the positive side, the Seahawks do max their cap value in other ways. They extended Tyler Lockett early twice. What seemed like a top deal very quickly became a bargain as other WRs zoomed past Lockett’s AAV number.
They did not blow the QB market out of the water on RW’s deal. He got just slightly more than the top number at the time. Barely. He came out of the gate putting up MVP type numbers, rewarding that move.
The downside is they have not been able to take advantage of getting that type of value. Constantly they waste money on middle-class veteran players and block the development of their draft picks.
Over The Cap says that the contract is just $60 million guaranteed and only $17.5 dead money if they part ways with Carr after 2 years. If this is true I think it puts a big damper on the market for Geno (and Jones).
https://overthecap.com/player/derek-carr/2975
I proposed the same thing with Geno. A roster bonus that forces a decision after a short while.
I really want one of 3 QBs, but is it wrong to feel selfish about not wanting to trade our picks for a trade up? I kind of feel like a child 😂
But then I just have this gut feeling that Richardson will be gone by our pick and he’ll end up being a top QB in the league. So why not trade up for him?
So my thoughts just go against each other. This is why people who get paid more than I do get to make the decisions
Understand this sentiment but one thing that’s irksome to me is people are treating this number five pick like any other pic. It’s like a gift from the gods. They’re trying to fix all the holes in the team in this one draft and yet this could be an investment in the future that in a couple years could set us up for a decade of serious contention. But if we just fill holes then big whoopee we get to be better than mediocre? And we get to Chase for the next Geno. Any investment involves risk so John needs to shoot for the moon here.
Kind of depends. Do you think the difference between one of these 3 and a B.Young, assuming he lasts to 5, is worth giving up the #20 and the 2nds? I like the other 3 better, but still wouldn’t be surprised if Young ends up the best of the lot. At least if he can keep himself in one piece …
If you are Arizona, are you really going to turn down #5 and #20? Even if it is in the same division? Stay put out of spite and select Anderson when you could have him at 5 AND #20? Or if Anderson gets taken before, that means a QB is still there and you can again trade back and accumulate a haul probably bigger than what you would be given for just #3.
I think you could be right about this. It’s an easy win for the Cardinals and gets them another 1st immediately.
Agree. This “they won’t trade with a division rival” stuff is overblown.
Just last year Detroit and Minnesota swung a big trade in the first round.
The Seahawks traded down with the Niners in 2017 if memory serves.
It will also be advantageous for the Cardinals to stay in the top 5.
I agree it’s an easy decision for Arizona, but we may have some competition for their pick.
My point is that even with competition, who can offer such a return? Lions are only team with a potential QB need and multiple picks. Even then, is AZ prepared to for sure miss on Anderson? Hawks compensation is only one that allows for AZ to still have opportunity to get Anderson. Like Rob has mentioned, they are losing Watt and Allen, and lost Jones last year. They are desperate for a talent like Anderson.
Fair points raised on both posts and I agree. What if the scenario is
1. INDY – QB
2. HOU – QB
3. SEA – QB
4. CHI – Will Anderson
5. ARI – might not get him but could still get Tyree Wilson or trade down to LV/CAR for Bryce Young
DET could be in competition with their two firsts as well but overall we have more draft capital.
Even in that case, though, if Arizona doesn’t want Tyree, someone is going to really want him — or be really desperate to get the last top QB in Young. In which case Arizona can trade down again for an even bigger haul in picks to fill out their team.
Trading with us would allow us to keep a 2nd rounder.
As Rob mentioned – OL with our #52 pick seems like a strong possibility.
If Arizona grades Will Anderson, Tyree Wilson & possibly even Jalen Carter (maybe character is less of a concern for them) all similarly, they’d be crazy not to accept #5 & #20 from us.
On the other hand, if JS has graded all 4 x QB’s similarly, maybe he is happy to sit and see how the draft falls.
I personally think JS has/will send offers to both Chi & Ari, but won’t trigger them unless the Colts or any of the teams after us send a firm bid. Bryce Youngs Pro Day will be VERY interesting and I doubt any offers for the top pick will be made until after March 23rd
One thing to consider is that both the two teams interested in trading down (CHI and AZ) are possibly targeting the same player (Will Anderson) in a trade down scenario.
Assume it’s the case that Will Anderson is the #1 non-QB on Chicago and Arizona’s board. If Chicago trades down with Seattle, Arizona would just stand pat and take Anderson at 3. Same story with the Colts. So really, if Chicago actually values Anderson as their #1 target based on needs, they can’t really trade down and still get him.
An angle I don’t recall hearing Matt. Makes a lot of sense.
Excellent points! Tyree Wilson’s pro day looms large. If he can solidify DE2 it would boost the value for CHI and ARI both.
Honestly I think the smartest thing Chicago and/or Arizona could do is trade down farther and take Bijan. You turn the 1st or 3rd pick into the best overall player and probably several future rd 1 picks if you drop down to pick 7-15 or so. Wherever you could still get him.
Still think the value of pick #5 carries extra weight.
I believe #5, #37, & #131 could get it done.
Why would AZ do it with an in Division rival?
1A. #37 is like getting a low 1st; & the overall package has more value than anything else they’d likely receive.
1B. They still have their choice of the #1 non-QB player in the draft, which is why it’s a more attractive package.
2. They could still trade down again for further draft capital.
Heck, just picks #5 & #37
AZ #3 value on JJ Classic model & Rich Hill 2200 & 514 points
SEA #5 & #37 values are 2230 & 630 points.
Mahomes and Allen being ID’d by Schneider and willing to look beyond RW to get them is fantastic.
The only challenge I have there is both had their worts in college and both needed (and got) great pro grooming from their NFL coaching staff. Nagy and Reid with Mahomes, Daboll with Allen.
Those QBs had enormous raw talent but got molded by some great teachers. Some we knew about already (Reid) and others we did not (Nagy and Daboll).
If they want Richardson, they better hope Greg Olson is up to the task.
It’s interesting that Carroll has already been talking up Olson’s work with younger guys
Olson was a great hire. He has had success getting career years out of veteran journeymen like Geno and developing young prospects.
Rob, how would you characterize the drop off in talent from Anderson and Wilson to the next pass rushers? Both the Bears and Cardinals desperately need pass rushers. If the drop off is significant enough, they may not want to take the extra picks with a move down if is the difference between a potential impact player and just a solid starter.
All the discussion about the drop off in talent makes me wonder if those two teams will be reticent to drop out of the top 5 or 6 especially if they are concerned that the Seahawks will snag one of those top defenders after committing to Geno. Could help to explain why the Seahawks are giving such strong commitments through their media mouthpieces. If those two think that dropping out of the top 4 means they won’t get one of the two DL impact players, they may choose to stand pat (or in the case of the Bears, only trade with the Colts), ensuring one of the top three QB’s drops to the Seahawks.
I think Levis is gone at 5 but Richardson will be there. After the dust settles Gms will look at tape and shy away picking himm so high enabblig the Hawks to take him.
I think it’s more likely to be the other way around
Pointless what we think.
If they want to have their guy, they need to take luck out of the equation. And when I read the other GMs in Robs piece, John Schneider is an open book.
Plus, if we draft a QB high, we could make do with signing Mayfield or Mariota as transitional guys for much less money than Geno.
Thanks for all the work put in this week and in general. Just curious on when you’re thinking of releasing your next Horizontal Board? I know there’s still pro days to consider so would you update it only once more before the draft? Thanks again!
Eric Kendricks being released by the Vikings. Wonder what he would cost.
Doug Farrar has a new mock:
#5. Seahawks- Anthony Richardson Florida
“So, here’s where it gets interesting. During his combine presser, Seahawks general manager John Schneider was asked if there was a reason he might extend quarterback Geno Smith with a new contract, and then select a quarterback with an early pick.
Schneider’s answer was simple: Because élite quarterbacks don’t grow on trees.
From an athletic perspective there are few at the position more elite than Richardson, who tattooed his name all over the Lucas Oil Stadium turf with a series of incendiary and record-setting drills.
Florida QB Anthony Richardson is absolutely dominating the scouting combine
Is he a work in progress as a pure passer? Yes, but perhaps to a smaller degree than you may think, and if Richardson is in a situation where he can learn from a veteran quarterback and doesn’t have to start right away, the return on investment could be something we’ve never seen before. Imagine a guy with Cam Newton’s size, Michael Vick’s speed, and Josh Allen’s arm, and that’s where Richardson sits right now. That’s worth a top-five pick on potential alone, and the development is highly encouraging in a relatively small sample size.”
https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/lists/2023-nfl-draft-scouting-combine-mock-draft/
He has the Hawks taking
Richardson
Keon White
Deonte Banks
Kelijah Kancey
Tajae Spears
Sign me up for for that.
It’s like a pfn mock some posters here do.
It’s funny cuz it’s true
I think Bryce is the one that falls.
I was talking with a friend who is intimate with the Alabama team and he said they have held there breathe for the last two years knowing his size and durability concerns.
If it only costs you the 20 to move up to Arizona’s 3 I think that may be a no brainer as the players available at 20 aren’t exceptionally different than those in the 30’s, it saves you over $2 mil in cap this season and we will hopefully never draft this high again.
JS go get our guy, please!
It’s going to cost more than a first round pick swap and a lower first round pick, because there are so many teams lusting for that same #3 pick….we have more to play with than most in this draft, but QB Lust is a real thing around the NFL…
Give up 2024’s one as well.
I disagree, as none of those teams have the 5 pick, which guarantees either Anderson, Wilson, or another opportunity to trade down with a QB hungry team. Who is going to be lusting for that pick that can offer 2 picks THIS year? And one of them still guarantee a blue chipper in Anderson. a Round 1 next year isnt worth what a Round 1 this year is. Same goes for Indy and Bears. For the bears and AZ, staying in the top 5 is crucial.
Option 1: get 5 and 20 for 3. 2 firsts, one being very high. Guarantee a QB or Anderson will be there.
Option 2: trade to Raiders or later and AT MOST get 3 firsts, but in consecutive years, no guarantee what pick as they are not this year, and move out of spot for Anderson and no QB.
With option 2, that settles what you get. No Anderson and no QB to trade back again with a team wanting to move up.
With option 1 you get Anderson and another pick this year at 20. A premium spot that isnt much different than say 9 in this draft. If Anderson is gone, Young or a QB is available and you can STILL trade back with the same team that would have moved up to 3 and add at least another 1st next year. At the end of the day, you trade getting a first next and the following, for getting next and this year. 3 1sts in either scenario.
John Schneider is a master at knowing what teams will draft which players and who will be available when they pick. He didn’t trade up in the 3rd round for Russell Wilson.
Professional teams spend an extraordinary amount of time scouting teams and building their draft boards. There is all kinds of media drama about players screaming up draft boards after the combine but an NFL GM who spent all year scouting Anthony Richardson and had him slotted around #7-10 isn’t going to be changing his mind and saying, “Well, I was wrong. He’s #1 overall!” after watching the combine. They already knew how athletic he was and how strong his arm is.
That being said, there is a good chance that several GMs already rated Richardson as one of the top 3 players before the combine. Rob did.
It is also likely that most GMs rated Bryce Young as the top QB and still do.
I agree with Rob that John and Pete were eyeing this QB class when they made the Russell Wilson trade. And I am certain John Schneider is working the phones to find out whether they need to move up and how much it will cost. And if he needs to, he will. We probably won’t know until draft day so settle in for a ride friends.
“That being said, there is a good chance that several GMs already rated Richardson as one of the top 3 players before the combine. Rob did.”
With all due respect to Rob, it’s reasonable to assume that GMs who have more experience and resources, do not rank Richardson as highly. Below is what Rob wrote about LJ Collier. It’s not fair to expect he get every guy right but it’s important to consider everything with a grain of salt.
“L.J. Collier is a highly enjoyable prospect to watch. He had a fantastic Senior Bowl. He’s a terrific pass rusher with great length and an ability to work to create openings. His hand use, ability to convert speed-to-power and variety of moves is impressive. You can see him planning two-or-three snaps ahead to set up a blocker. He’s not all about technique though and he bullied several big name linemen at the Senior Bowl. He’s a refined brawler.
Collier’s performance at the Senior Bowl and good tape could’ve secured a place in round two. If the Seahawks want him, it might need to be with their first pick. He’d be a strong selection, albeit a different one for Carroll and Schneider. He’s a very accomplished pass rusher with a varied repertoire. Collier plays with great effort and intensity. He just has some athletic limitations.”
You do realise that by posting my thoughts on Collier, you actually just prove his point?
Because the Seahawks took Collier in R1 — meaning Seattle’s GM agreed with me and thus those comments aligned with at least one NFL decision maker
We were talking about “several GMs” . I could just as easily point to all of the GMs who passed on Collier because they did not think he was a good player. They were right and Seattle was wrong.
(And of course, we already knew Seattle was going to take a DE in round one that year. You wrote positive reviews on a bunch of DEs – odds were Seattle would take one of them, right?)
GMs have access to more info and insight than people on the outside and hence their assessments are often far different than everyone else’s. This is not a controversial take. It’s easily proven by history.
It’s quite possible Richardson will be available at 5. We shall see.
So which GM’s “passed” on him seeing as he was taken at #29?
Exactly what range do you think I was expecting him to go? I had him down as an early R2 and he went at #29. You’ve quoted a positive review which you think shows “I get stuff wrong” and that teams won’t agree, yet the team we both follow literally took him and must’ve had similar thoughts.
It might be worth just taking the L. All this example does is bolster the other side of the argument to the one you’re making — because in the case of Collier, my thoughts exactly aligned with Seattle’s
Sounds like Dave is confused between your personal opinion about what should be done and what you prognosticate Seattle will do based on hours upon hours of studying draft prospects and years upon years of observing the Seahawks, and applying how their specific needs in any given draft match up to the prospects
Why should I “take the L” on a very non-controversial point that is easily proven by history?
GMs may have a different take on Richardson than you do and would not rank him in the top 3. They have access to far more info and possess far more experience than bloggers and fans do.
We could go through a bunch of your previous assessments and see that players you thought would be great didn’t turn out to be great. That’s not a knock on you – there are lots of wrong mock drafts out there. No one gets everything right.
But I take everything I read with a grain of salt. Richardson may very well be there at 5. And I’m not the only one who thinks that.
Re: Collier, you wrote lots of positive reviews on players. The fact that Seattle chose one of them is not surprising, particularly in a year where everyone expected them to take a DE. It was clearly a desperation move as the players they really wanted had already been taken. Collier turned out to be a draft bust. You were wrong about him and you could be wrong about your assessment of Richardson. That’s the non-controversial point.
Gotta get going. You can have the last word on this.
Fwiw, Zierlein had Collier in exactly the same range, early R2.
McShay had him at #38, and #5 DE, which is same range.
Tony Pauline called him as a “system fit on a position of need […], but numerous execs regarded him as an good athlete after his pro day, as a R1 pick after his performance […], IMO a bit of a reach”.
The fact, that he turned out a draft bust had nothing to do with the pre-draft process. It had everything to do with the Seahawks DL development stinking.
Finally, Richardson might be there at #5. But it is pretty much pointless. If the Seahawks want him, they need to take luck out of the equation.
I don’t understand your point.
Rob is out here stating odds and you’re acting like he’s trying to state facts.
We don’t know your knowledge of the game history of draft predictions, but I do know Rob’s, and I trust his view more than every other media outlet when it comes to the draft. You’ll notice many others do as well.
You’re certainly wrong in trying to prove your point with Collier. Rob’s been telling people who he thinks will be drafted where and why.
Your only “why” is that Rob correctly pointed out that the Seahawks may draft him, and right about when they would need to draft him. The fact he’s a bust doesn’t matter, Rob didn’t state that Collier was his preference to draft at #29.
This is the problem with the internet
Someone makes a point that argues against the thing they’re actually trying to say
This is pointed out to them
And they can’t just go… ‘ah, shit, yeah you’re right’
Instead they have to keep digging
Thanks for the last word
What part of the Collier evaluation do you disagree with? It seems spot on to me. He even nailed when the pick would happen. It blows that Collier hasn’t been able to put it together at the NFL level, but this is a fair eval for his senior bowl/college game.
I love this post. Agree with almost every word.
Only thing I’ll say is that teams that might’ve had Richardson around #15 on their boards now might have him top 5 because of the combine. That’s not just new information they see first hand, but as we know buzz on a player can create at least a moderate “bidding war,” where teams feel they need to strike earlier than expected on a player.
I’m just wondering though…Would all teams be willing to start Richardson day 1 if they don’t have another viable QB option? I could see the Texans justifying letting Davis Mills start the year and then AR come in, but what if the Colts cut Ryan?
I gues hoping if any team trades up they want one of the more ready QBs available.
It hurts me to say this because I would love to see him in Seattle but I honestly think Richardson is as ready to start as any of the QBs.
I think the combine can absolutely change gm’s opinions. Otherwise why have it? Teams have the tape on these guys and definitely have ranks before the combine, but they don’t make a final decision until watching them up close and talking to them. Every year players rise and fall because of what teams see there. It seems ridiculous to say everyone’s mind is already made up and an amazing showing by ar15, or any of the qb’s, won’t sway some gm’s who may have been on the fence.
John Schneider was asked this very question a week ago. Where does the combine fit in your evaluation process? He said they they have already set up their board. “The main reason for the combine is medicals. The Jets drafted a receiver many years ago who was legally blind in one eye. And that’s when the League got together and said we need a way to make sure we all have the info we need.” He also said “We use the interviews to get a feel for how these guys might fit with our culture. Are they going to fit in a locker room with all these ultra competitive players like Sherm and Kam and Earl back in the LOB days. And if we have questions about other stuff like legal issues.”
You have the draft capital I think it is a no brainer for JS to position himself to ensure he gets Richardson, Levis or Stroud. If he falls in love with one of them then a move to #1 is a realistic scenario IMO. If he likes all 3 then a move to #3 with thr Cardinals would be less expansive.
Personally I think JS will love Levis and Pete will love Richardson so it will be interesting to see how it plays out.
On another note the Hawks could legitimately come out of this draft with the the best young offense in the NFL. If they don’t sign Geno and focus on DL / LB in free agency this is quite realistic IMO.
#5 Richarson / Levis / Stroud
#20 Darnell Washington
#38 Mazi Smith
#53 Luke Wypler
#84 Dyian Henley
#124 Johnathan Mingo -Steal here as WR3
#154 Terrel Smith – Protype Hawks developmental CB
#157 Evan Hull
#199 Andrew Vorhees
For me flip flop mingo and Henley but it feels very close to how it might look on draft day.
If the Hawks pull off a draft like that sticking to all their higher draft slots, that would be phenomenal.
“How is John Schneider not coming out of the draft with one of Anthony Richardson, Will Levis or C.J. Stroud?”
Honestly if none of them are available. I’m actually ok with Bryce Young as well but I’m really concerned that you could have QBs go 1-4. The Bears want to trade down, apparently the Cardinals want to trade down. If the Colts are a team trading up, I could totally see QBs being the top 4 picks in this draft.
Jalen Carter being a lazy idiot and Will Anderson not blowing the roof off at the combine made it so that all anyone is talking about early are the QBs. I get the feeling the Bears and Cardinals are coming to the same conclusions you are, that it’s a QB draft early on. Colts trading up with Chicago could save the Hawks chances at a QB though.
Well done, Doug Farrar… re. comment above.
I wonder how things develop next in relation to Geno’s contract timeline.
For example, if Geno hits the market and signs somewhere else – revealing to the league that we’ll draft a QB… presumably that would push other QB-needy teams to try and leap frog us….. And then Rob’s trade-up scenario here starts really to look like the only game in town.
Right now it’s easy to get complacent – the PFF mock sim hasn’t priced in Carter’s likely fall or Richardson’s stock rise… so every mock you’ll get one of these x3 proto QBs – easy money.
But we know different!
Trying to get my head around how other teams free agency week will affect this picture too.
“If the Colts are a team trading up, I could totally see QBs being the top 4 picks in this draft”
Sorry I meant “unless” the Colts trade up.
The Bears could easily trade down again from #4
As Rob pointed out many times, when they made the RW trade, there was a plan. I think it’s very obvious even Geno couldn’t have predicted he would have played that well in the first half of the year.
IMO, the plan when they were making the trade was to be mediocre in 2022, get a top 12 pick, and use the Broncos late first rounder to trade up into a range where JS saw 2-4 QBOTF candidates in the 2023 draft.
Then things changed, the Broncos and Seahawks swapped in performance and Geno performed a little better than expected. I think, like Rob, that they are still acting on that plan but are now in a much better situation than they could have predicted. Utilize a Geno contract as a ploy to not be too interested or sign him with a perfect bridge scenario when his market will obviously come back to market value. (Who is going to pay Geno $25M+? If TB, let him walk.)
I think they will stick to that plan meaning a trade up is likely.
So many Seahawks Media, Podcasters, Twitterists etc opposed to drafting a QB. None have explained how they intend to fill the position going forwards. Do they see Drew Lock as the answer no one has said yes to that.
Do they see The Seahawks having a high enough draft pick over the next 3-4 years to pick a QB that is better than any of the top 3 or 4 that could be available to us this year? assumedly not as most of them seem to think Geno is the answer.
Even if Geno is league average for 3 years, reaches mid 30’s what then?
I just can’t see their logic.
On another note, did anyone notice during Stetson Bennett’s throwing drill at the Combine the Cameras focussed briefly on Pete Carroll who looked very focused. If we don’t get a QB early in the draft I would not be surprised to see the “Mailman” in Seattle.
They might well have Hendon Hooker on their Board as well if they see him as a great fit for their system. He might be their Brock Purdy.
When you ask any of those people if there is a true game wrecker prospect on the Dline all you hear is “maybe”, “he could be” or “it’s less risk”.
Good grief.
It’s not actually less risk – going through the hit rates at every position gets you the same results – chaos
Wouldn’t be the least bit opposed. If we can’t get a true game wrecker, we at least need to build a deep line, getting a pro like Dupree across from Nwosu with a bunch of young guys off the bench? I can get behind that.
I just don’t expect the Hawks to spend much again…
More the reasons to gamble on a young QB.
Leonard Floyd is also on the verge of getting released. Kendricks is available too. Any of them are by far better than Cody Whiff Barton
Derrick Henry on the trading block too. Really curious to see where the Titans reset goes.
Peterson may rule that division for years if this trend keeps up.
I would trade up without hesitation if I were John Schneider. But if he stands Pat and lets it fall to him and it’s Bryce Young then I’d be okay with that. I would be more okay with that then drafting Will Anderson whom I really love as a player but do you really need that position with all the other pass rushers you’ve drafted and signed as a free agent in Nwosu?
But in reality he should just go get his quarterback and leave the draft happy that for the next 5 years he doesn’t have to pick into the new versions of Teddy Bridgewater Ryan Fitzpatrick and Taylor heinecke.
I just don’t see him being able to take that option compared to one of the Big 3. Schneider is way to traity (I might have just made that term up).
Some teams will like the safety of Young’s game compared to the raw talent of the others. I can see Indy and Houston maybe doing that: get a young kid that will ignite the fans, give them hope, and at least be consistent going down the field.
Schneider would rather swing for the fences in my opinion.
Also, if he trades up, he NAILS the pick: DK, Lockette, Taylor (more so positive I think, Dickson, Jarran Reed. Barton is the only one that I can think of that didn’t work out.
Trading up will also depend on how the QB’s are ranked by JS – Rob how do you feel JS may rank these 4 qb’s and is he 100% sold on 1 or 2 above the rest.
Amazing discussion on Brock and Salk this morning.
“Does the lack of a market around the League for Geno signal that he is considered a good, not great, QB?”
“Does Seattle’s refusal to tag Geno and let him explore the market as an unrestricted free agent show that Seattle is willing to risk moving on from Geno”
“Does the talent of the top-4 QB prospects make you more willing to risk losing Geno?”
“ Does the talent of the top-4 QB prospects make you want to move on from Geno and use the savings elsewhere on the roster?”
I have not heard this from Seattle media before and it gets extra juice if you buy into the idea that 710 is the mouth for the Seattle front office.
Look forward to listening to the podcast version when I walk the dogs later
It was interesting to see Brock’s take on Richardson and Levis shift dramatically.
Doesn’t surprise me…a lot of eyes were opened once someone actually started noticing these guys and not just repeating what everyone has said for months.
Not a Brock fan when he is disecting players.
Share your thoughts after you listen!
Rob looks like you have 48 hours in a day 🙂 Thanks for high quality coverage, you are way ahead of others so called Guru.
This is just one of the reasons SDB is so good.
Reality is smacking the Geno crowd in the face, hard.
We’ve been talking about these issues for months!
710 is Seahawks Radio and tries to do everything in the Seahawks best interest. Brock & Salk are just now catching up to the reality of the QB situation instead of just repeating what fans want to hear.
It was never realistic to Tag Geno. You just can’t pay an unproven QB north of $30M. They are just now seeing that $39M doesn’t fit into the Cap if you want to actually improve the team
It has been easy to denigrate these 4 QB prospects but when everyone got a chance to see them, all of the sudden they look promising.
Right? I’m not going to reward these guys for catching up to reality. Shoot, even if these four guys didn’t look as good as we’ve been saying, the talking heads still neglect positional value and the fact that a rookie QB likely buys JSPC at least two more seasons.
Every year I get so confused about why some players see their stock change so dramatically after combine testing. I get it for the players who put up really surprising numbers, but why are guys like Richardson and Nolan Smith shooting up boards now? We 100% already knew those guys were ridiculous, otherworldly athletes who would test through the roof at the combine. Why is the perception around them changing so significantly just because they now have an official 40 time?
I don’t buy Nolan Smith’s rise up boards – he’s still relatively positionless and doesn’t have much production. He’s a poor man’s Isaiah Simmons, who has proven to be a prettt meh pick.
I agree here
Nolan Smith is a very appealing player due to his 10/10 character and incredible athleticism. But placing him in a position is difficult. He’s a classic tweener.
Agreed. That and if we are being honest; Georgia defenders haven’t translated all that well, relative to their draft position in the NFL (minus Roquon). I think his bread and butter will be a run and chase LBer. I don’t think I see him being much of a pass rusher unless that’s his carved out role and there’s a commitment to getting up to 250+ lbs.
Smart offenses will just run at him all day and mitigate that first step explosiveness get has as a pass rusher.
In the case of Richardson — the media has just been behind the curve again. It happens with loads of players — including Joe Burrow, Cam Newton, Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson.
Take Burrow — people were still talking about tanking for Tua when Burrow was lighting up the SEC and looking like the perfect QB prospect
Great stuff Rob.
Just my opinion, but I think Levis will safely be there at 5. I’m not saying I agree with this, but it seems like after the weekend; the consensus is that he’s clearly the 4th guy – could be a combination of age and the fact the AR mitigates his physical profile while Stroud just looks so good throwing the ball. Levis is a bit in no man’s land, if you will, compared to the other 3.
So while I completely agree I think JS really likes Levis, I am starting to wonder if he *loves* Stroud or Richardson enough to make a move up. I can see JS loving AR’s profile and loving Stroud’s ability to throw the ball; but I am starting to ponder (pure speculation btw) if Levis is more in the “really like” category. I know this is very subjective and fairly stupid, but I’m trying to get into JS’ mind about the potential of a move up.
As things stand right now; my guess is that JS would gladly take Levis at 5; but I do think he’d entertain trading UP for Stroud or AR.
Just my opinion, but I think if this scenario is close to reality – it presents a very unique situation about how to secure one of those guys. I just don’t think Tyree Wilson moves the needle for them at 5.
I think you could easily be right here
The 4d chess I’ve been pondering is if levis was John’s guy all along.
With the Wilson trade.
Let’s go back a year. To a time when Rob was talking about Levis on the radio with Heaps.
Stroud at the time was an “ohio state system qb.” There was no Richardson to speak of except of course from Rob. And then there was this Elway-esque qb at Kentucky who literally was fairly quietly elevating a perennial do nothing program in the SEC.
Stroud changed his narrative. Richardson explodes the scene. Young keeps being Young all the while Levis gets to play on one of the most mediocre to poor teams at a big program who would have been most likely pick 1? Pick 2? If he came out last year.
This is good stuff snd don’t disagree. But I will add a caveat.
CJ Stroud absolutely took over the Elite 11 camp as a nobody in 2019. The guys who run it ended up giving him MVP and raved about his resilience, incredible improvement, and overcoming immense hardship.
The guy who runs this is…Yogi Roth; a very close person to Pete Carroll. It wouldn’t shock me if there was a “keep your eye on him; he’s everything you’ve looked for.” So I don’t dispute your tOSU QB take BUT, Stroud was not a heralded prospect until he forced his hand as a senior in HS. There’s a level of character there that I think Pete Carroll would die to have. Stroud is really the poster child for what PC preaches about character AND the QB position (point guard).
Love Stroud. Love that he basically taught himself the position.
Agree that Pete would probably love him.
But now we’re parsing dream choices because I also think Levis playing last year when he could pack it on speaks volumes for him.
I agree with your general points – in my mind, the main team to monitor are the Colts. They seem to also favor physical traits and upside…even if they sit back at 4, i believe they will take either Levis or AR (and i would assume they are leaning to Levis, as the one with the attractive physical profile yet more NFL ready). Houston needs a hit rather than a HR, and might target Stroud over the other 2. Young’s physical profile personally scares me – lets hope the hype train at pro days goes into high gears and convinces one team to take him in the top 4. If we get Levis or AR at 5, i will rejoice!
Great observation Matt, feel for current scenario.
So entertaining to watch this whole process unfold. How we wish we could be at #3 and not #5, but we never expected to be at 5. I think PCJS will take it and relish it.
Lots of QB needy teams at 1-4 plus a division rival. On top of that Vegas, Detroit, Atlanta, Tennessee, Jets, New England, GBay, Washington, Tampa all looking to maybe move up if the right opportunity arises. Makes for a compelling scenario.
I trust John, just from past dabbles with Mahomes and Allen. Hard to figure out if he waits it out to see who of the Top 4 makes or if he moves a tad up. I can’t imagine them going all the way up to #1, too expensive. But I will not complain if they are committed to something and go all in on that.
Mahomes and Allen were 1 of 1 from what he know (not as per hit rate, but as per John’s infatuation with them), not sure this time around. 60% fail rate in trading up they say, very true. You just can’t be afraid of striking out. You have to swing until you get it. Hawks are in an enviable position due to the master stroke of the Wilson trade and some luck afterwards. If they hit a home run, they will be praised until no end. If they end up swinging and missing, they may be tarred, but it will not have been the wrong move. Geno is a stud and thankful for him. You may not go to the gutter with with him and be tarred in the process, but also find it very difficult to got to the promise land with him. Mainly due to the lack of funds that signing him entails.
PCJS made their chops and their “dynasty” by spending less on QB position and filling out roster. Here’s to a repeat of that.
I personally think JS has a hard on for Anthony Richardson. I doubt there is much difference between him and Levis in the overall grading – but I think given his history of looking for projections rather than production – he would lean towards Richardson.
I think Houston is almost certainly higher on Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud as they are under new management and will be looking for instant results. I would also suggest the same for Indy, they want a player that can come in now and perform better than Wentz and Ryan – only Young and Stroud are safe bets for this.
So the question is whether this impacts Seattle?
If Indy Trades up to 1 and drafts Stroud.
Houston stays at 2 and selects Young.
Only Detroit has the plausible draft capital to outbid us with picks THIS year.
I personally think that Arizona @ 3 would almost guarantee us Richardson or Levis. I just don’t see Chicago trading down with someone other than Seattle or Indy given that by doing so, they could miss out on a core franchise talent.
Unless Chicago and Arizona has a longer term plan & would consider 2024 draft picks. Only Seattle & Detroit have the picks this year to make an immediate difference.
It’s a very interesting time for sure, with free agency right around the corner and a critically important draft after that.
I just can’t decide whether JS should stand pat at 5 or trade up, because we don’t know how 1-4 is going to look on draft day and who likes which QB’s.
No cap cuts yet for the Hawks, as these are starting to trickle in from other teams. I’m still hopeful JS can fix the rush defense and pass rush before the draft, leaving it wide open to select the best players available.
Fun times ahead, love reading all the excellent work and thoughts here on SDB.
I wouldn’t be mad maybe trading #5, #20, 2024 R2 for a top 3 pick (maybe need ’24 R1?)
Get one of the top3 QB, get an OC and a TE in R2 and a DT in R3.
Get a passrusher and/or LB in FA and a legit WR3 too.
A young QB, a good OL and some offensive weapons looks good.
On the defense it’d be a work in progress…but hopefully better than last year.
In 2024 bring in an OG an RB2 and some defensive players and if things go well in 2025-26 this team could get to the top again.
All aboard the trade up train, seems like this idea is really becoming majority opinion on here now. I think if JS really wants to ensure he gets one of these guys, hes going to have to make the up move up to ensure he gets his guy.
Still can’t believe Vorhees tore his ACL yesterday but stuck around to put up 38 on the bench today. Props to him and I hope he heals up well and is ready for the 2024-2025 season.
Agreed. Seems like a badass to me. Wouldn’t mind spending a late pick on him
Rob-
Great work as always and just because your latest, and first time for me, Patreon supporter
Would love to see you expand on this article to include more players that you think the Seahawks should/will target in the draft. You listed the Wypler (or Schmitz) at center and of course one of the QBs, but what about the various other (need) positions. Still a gaping hole at LB and a massive need to improve the (interior) D line, so you have to believe that they are definitely going to be making picks at at least those 2 positions.
Would love another article breaking that’s down and listing who we should be keeping an eye on throughout the draft.
Appreciate the Patreon — in order to branch this out and provide details on the DL and LB, I really need the short shuttle times from pro-days
Rob you are getting some monster super chats if Richardson goes #1 overall 🙂
I think a bunch of us on the blog got him at 75-1 odd to go # 3-4 months back when you were banging the drum for him. Only put $50 down but regret not putting a little more now.
Time to bring back the Deforest Buckner chatter. If the Colts move up they may be okay picking up supplemental draft capital for next year following the draft.
I wouldn’t love moving a 2024 second, but after the draft the Colts might be open to something like that after burning a hole in their draft capital.
The other guy that was mentioned as a potential cut is Leonard Williams on the Giants. I think I saw it on Over The Cap, but maybe somewhere else too.
He’s had a couple down years after signing a big contract and the Giants will probably need some cap space once they waste a bunch of money on Jones. Williams could be a buy relatively cheap option.
Lots of interesting defensive guys are going to be available. Makes me want to go Offensive heavy in the draft. In my stupid mock drafts, I’ll get a QB, Bijan, TE, WR, and C with the first 5 picks.
Great call out. There’s gonna be a bunch of guys, that if the seahawks are willing to do a multi year deal, could be good options.
In regards to your stupid mocks, the same thing keeps happening to my stupid mocks! Is it dumb? Yes. But can I help myself…
I really feel like another year of learning the scheme and adding talent and depth in FA and later in the draft could turn the defense around enough to be middling with a chance to grow. Probably would need a trade down or two to pick up the draft pick quantity to justify going all offense the first few picks…
JS has previously stated when drafting RW that he could “tilt the field”. That would seem to be in RW’s case that he had “grit” and game changing abilities. I would suggest that after the “prima donna” RW took shape,
his teammates were less inclined to play “hard” for their “leader”. The mental and personality side of the game is very important in the NFL, so concentrating solely on a QB’s physical qualities is only part of the evaluation. A QB that has a great personality, is beloved by his coaches, teammates and fans has a major advantage called “leadership”. Ideally, JS wants a QB that both leads & inspires his teammates to the extent that they would run through a brick wall for him, that’s what I want, a real leader.
To be more specific, ——-> Will Levis, ticks all the right boxes for me & I suspect JS has been seeing him as a target for a couple of years. Please PC, don’t leave the draft without him, do whatever it takes.
Given where we sit at 5 and our additional draft capital, JS “will” get his QB. The only question is whether he will be able to do it without having to trade up…which it what everyone on this blogs is hoping for.
It’s an option surely, but I’m hardly hoping for it, more it seems to becoming a begrudging reality. I think all 4 could work, but the front office will have there work cut out figuring this process out. Gonna be a lot of gamesmanship!
I don’t think that’s true.
I think all of us would be happy if a qb and certainly the big three were there at five.
I think it’s a discussion because there’s no game wrecking dline at five and Anderson didn’t blow the doors off testing wise.
Additionally there’s a huge cliff at qb.
Way back in the suck for luck year there was a short qb from Wisconsin before short qbs were a thing that had an amazing arm. There was a goofy guy from Michigan state who had matt Hasselbeck like moxy.
Now it’s four tippy top qbs. And frankly a bunch of hope and pray randos with the next best qb being hooker. Old(er),injured, and needs to learn a pro offense.
Exactly right Peter. If Russell didn’t have the best game of the season for him and we were sitting at number three none of us would be talking about trading up
Or the Houston, indy debacle.
On the other hand had the season gone chalk per the betting lines and we had the natural pick 5 and denvers pick was 20 I think all of Seattle’s fan base would be howling to move up.
But instead carr just got a ton of money for no reason and we might be paying geno that much for one good quality carr style season.
$37.5m AAV / $60m guaranteed for Carr
I just can’t see Seattle offering anywhere close to that for Geno. If some other team wants to play in sandbox, I truly hope Seattle takes their toys and goes home.
And what other team would pay Geno that much when Jimmy G and others are out there? Others with a much bigger resumes as starters.
Drew Lock might end up being our saving grace in this. I feel like when Pete was hyping up Geno and Drew and 1a and 1b last preseason, it was one part usual Pete-speak, and in part to keep the options open like this and not have to commit our eggs into one basket. Is Drew actually 1b and will have the breakout season like Geno? Probably not, but he remains a decent fallback option for a bridge QB and a negotiation hedge where if Geno demands Derek Carr or Daniel Jones money, we pull up Lock’s number on the phone.
I don’t always agree with Tony’s takes, but he’s usually spot on when it comes to his League sources.
I was more impressed with Schmintz than Wypler, both in terms of how he looks/is built, and how he moved in drills. But I’ve no issue at all with Wypler if he’s the guy.
It’s happening. Yessss
“A cool moment came when Richardson met with the Seahawks. Richardson said he felt an instant rapport with energetic coach Pete Carroll.
“He had this big smile on his face,” Richardson recalled. “We shook hands, and something about it was just different. You only see these guys on TV. And now I’m in their presence and they’re right there talking to me. And they’re interested in me. That makes you feel good.””
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/35790651/inside-anthony-richardson-2023-nfl-combine
Whoops. Didn’t mean to post my comment as a reply. Fat fingered it
While sitting in my car on a road trip this morning, I listened to the video above and I have to agree 100% with something Robbie said. With the trade of Russell Wilson, they had to have the belief that they were going to draft a rookie quarterback this year.
Armed with two first round picks, John Schneider, more than likely had his eye on somebody already. It’s my belief that it is always been Will Levis. CJ Stroud & Bryce Young both potentially had one year left in college and Anthony Richardson wasn’t even a starter. I think the previous connection with Liam Coen was the door opening we needed. I will be the first to admit that I thought our native first round pick would be the high draft, not DEN’s (I’m sure a lot of people thought that way).
I also believe Geno played his way out of a future in SEA and I’m ok with that. We have been gifted an amazing pick from DEN and I would be extremely disappointed if we didn’t walk away with a shot at a QBoTF with that pick.
Thanks for the ridiculous amount of amazing content you put out around the Combine (and always), Rob.
I’ll be very curious to see how the short shuttle times slip in from the pro-days, and I hope that the lack of them from the Combine is as frustrating to the teams as it is to us (so that they maybe actually change the Combine back to encourage people to do them then)
Rob, I know you’ve consistently said you like all 4 QB prospects in this draft, with reservations about Young’s physical profile. But after the combine, I would be extremely disappointed if we ended up taking Young and I’m thinking (I apologize if assuming incorrectly) you agree? I just can’t get on board with using a rare high pick for anyone other than Richardson, Stroud or Levis. JS needs to do whatever it takes to go get one of those 3.
I’m leaning that way
I think we should be prepared to accept that JS is going to at a minimum move up to #3, and potentially at most #1. If you feel as strongly about the QBs as JS likely does, that like Ive been saying all along since the season’s end, you cant just leave this to chance and say a hope and a prayer that one of the 3 falls to 5, because that just screams wishful thinking to me. Are you going to leave a once in a generational opportunity to chance and wishful thinking? That just seems so asinine given the hawks draft capital to move up.
Also agree here Martin/Rob. Can’t blame Bryce for his stature. Also JS took a shot on Russ, albeit in the 3rd round.
Though seems to me this high up, that would not be the case as per him going for that build. I still would not mind him without trading up. CJ Stroud is the safest, Tom Brady like in terms of poise and accuracy. The other two are physical outliers and have that tantalizing upside.
I like Colin Cowherd’s comparison of Stroud and Herbert (not in terms of their athleticism) but as per how they were used in their college systems hence their general draft standings and then how they showed in their last college outings. Rob has mentioned same.
Pete has referrenced Carson Palmer as per being the perfect QB in terms of height/weight. Pete also wanted Russ to take what was there in coverage, that sounds like Stroud. Arguments for all 4, as per Pete wanting dogs at that position (and all others). Great position to be in.
From the looks of it, sounds like that Richardson interview has DK Metcalf combine interview vibes.
Thanks again Rob, you are a unicorn.
Said it a day ago we absolutely need to move up to 3. This is our best possible spot and Arizona still gets what they desire in one of the top 2 pass rushers. Trade value points say our 5 + 37 is equal to 3 but we may need to sweeten it up to 5 and 20. So be it. Win-Win for both teams!
Another reason why we could see a trade up for the seahawks: Carolina.
Assume Schneider values the top QBs differently than the rest of the league.
Well you can’t forget that Scott Fitterer is in Carolina, who comes from the Schneider tree, and also is QB needy. Fitterer probably knows what Schneider values, probably not a reach to suggest he values the same QBs in a similar order.
If you have a top QB in mind, say like Levis who isn’t at this point seen as the #1 overall, you might need to trade up to make sure Carolina doesn’t snag him first.
What I would say here though… Fitterer didn’t have ultimate say under Matt Rhule. I suspect David Tepper & Frank Reich are calling the shots now. A more fitting question would be, ‘who will Reich prefer?’
Or, who is flashy enough to satiate Tepper’s self-confessed desire for special?
Carolina holds the 9th pick and 4 in the top 100 selections.
They also built the trenches, traded away CMAC, and need a QB. I’ll be shocked if they don’t trade up to get their guy, (likely the same guy that Schneider has in mind), and they have plenty of draft capital to do it.
This screams “trade up” to me for the Seahawks, probably at number 3 (Cardinals). It will be expensive, since the cards will probably make the Seahawks beat Carolina’s offer by a decent margin (if intra-division trades really come with a price penalty). I’m looking for a trade up to 3, and it being much more expensive than fans and media are thinking.
Separate note: to me Levis is the guy.
I don’t think Carolina does have draft stock to move all the way to #1 without significantly dipping into 2024, or beyond, draft capital. 9, 41, 73, and 105 in this year’s picks aren’t likely enough to get them all the way to #1, and maybe not to #3.
If AZ and CHI want a top defensive talent (Anderson or Wilson) and extra picks then dropping all the way to 9 does not guarantee that. And the next best pick Carolina can offer is 41. No question they have to offer up a 2024 R1 pick in addition to most of their high 2023 picks just to get AZ or CHI to listen.
If JS wants to trade up he can offer #5 and #20 right off the bat, keeping AZ or CHI in range for the top defensive talent.
We’ll see how bad Carolina wants to move up as it’s going to cost them a ton. I’m also not fully convinced that Indy trades up. They’re already sitting at #4, a guaranteed spot to get a top QB. If they absolutely love a QB and think they need to move up, it’s a lot easier for them than for Carolina. Whoever they trade with can stay in the top 4 and probably get back #36, 68 and/or 2024 stock as well.
I am not that concerned about Carolina given I don’t think either Chicago or Arizona want to drop down to 9. They would miss out on the 2-3 best defensive players.
Wypler has been getting a lot of love since the combine so he may have to be pick 37 now if they want him.
https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/10067791-nfl-execs-predict-seahawks-draft-anthony-richardson-amid-geno-smith-contract-rumors.amp.html
If the Seahawks were to trade up to #1 who would you all want them to take?
For me, it depends on Geno. If he comes back for a reasonable price shoot for the moon with AR. If he’s holding out for the Daniel Jones/Derek Carr contract and ends up leaving I’m going Stroud, I think he’d be capable of starting day 1 and might have more upside as a passer, even if he’s not the level of athlete. I like Levis a lot at #5, but in this class the combination of his age and a not super developed sense of pressure (not always his fault but he also didn’t see some hits coming that he should have) bumps him down below the other 3 for me. Still like the guy but that’s my order for now.
If we are jumping to #1; I want Stroud. There’s still immense upside but a higher floor.
If we are at #3 and both Stroud and AR are available; I’m going AR.
Yes, there’s a psychological game there and it’s hard to explain other than being the #1 pick – there’s a level of psychology at play that I think will be easier to handle for both the FO and Stroud.
One thought / one question…
– I really doubt the Seahawks draft a TE. Unless, opportunistically. Someone falls. Maybe there’s value on day 3. I guess I am always supportive of leaning into a draft’s strengths. But I also feel the Hawks feel good about their group. I’m expecting Fant to ball out next year.
– Is it just me… or are the talking head’s prognosticatings / mock drafts / whatever more off-base than in previous years??? Bryce Young is one case in point. Even after the combine-that-everyone-knew-was-coming, I see a deluge of Young-is-the-top-rated-passer amongst GMs comments in post-combine articles. However, it’s true of the whole 1st round. Wondering if there is going to be a lot variance between projections and actual draft position. Certainly provides me a lot of hope that teams are dumb and there’s a lot of value in the 2nd round and later.
Three reasons why I think they will:
1. Cap space. Seattle have $18m tied up in the TE position for 2023, 4th most in the NFL. That’s 8% of the cap, and that’s not sustainable (unless one of them is Travis Kelce level good).
2. Personnel. Seattle have 4 TEs on roster, but only 3 of them are of consequence — Fant, Dissly and Parkinson. Both Fant and Parkinson will be UFAs in 2024. Dissly’s contract runs out the year after. They absolutely need to draft a TE in this draft or the next one. They can’t ignore the position in both. Which leads me to the third reason…
3. Draft strength. There’s no need to ponder about the quality of the 2024 TE class (unless you’re contemplating having a shot at Brock Bowers), because the current class is ridiculous. You said yourself maybe there’s value on Day 3. Oh, there’ll be value at TE on Day 3.
Take Sam LaPorta for example. The last time there was this good of a TE class was 2017 when George Kittle was drafted in R5. LaPorta tests remarkably similar to Kittle, even better in agility. Of course nobody knows if LaPorta will be as good as Kittle, but when all it costs is a R5 to find out, and you have two of them to spend, why wouldn’t you?
And that’s besides Darnell Washington, Luke Musgrave and Zack Kuntz, each legit freak prospects at the position in their own ways, and throw Mayer into the mix — either as an option for Seattle or as fodder that allows one of the others to slip to a range where Seattle can strike — I just don’t see how they pass on this class.
I agree, I think/hope they grab good value.
Just saw a mock draft that had us passing on Richardson for…..Jalen Carter. Because Seattle has a history of drafting guys with character issues and looking past that. Then at 20…Nolan Smith…. Because of the combine but also because he is Carter’s teammate and was the emotional leader on that defense. He can help keep him on the straight and narrow. Because he’s been so successful at that already….
What made me happy were they comments: they won’t draft Carter, no way they pass on Richardson. Some people are waking up to the idea, some people are still taking the lazy choices, and there are still some that think Geno and 24 picks will cut it.
Make a note of whoever wrote that mock
And never read their stuff again
I wonder if the Seahawks want to take a big swing on the #1 pick, if Chicago would be interested in Darrell Taylor.
They have no one – no one – on their roster that can consistently rush the passer. Their leading sacker last year was a safety with 4. They traded Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith and Akiem Hicks is long gone.
Trevis Gipson got 7 sacks in 2021 but only 3 last year.
That’s it.
Taylor doesn’t have prime trade value but might be attractive to a team with so little in the cupboard. Two cheap years of Taylor might have more value to a team so devoid of talent. Put Taylor on one side, Tyree Wilson or Will Anderson on the other and you’ve got something to work with.
Maybe instead of 37 they send Taylor + 51? That sort of thing.
The Seahawks can extend Nwosu and give Boye Mafe Taylor’s snaps. Alton and Tyreke are the primaries behind them, and the Seahawks can use #20 (and probably trade back to gain stock) to get another DL.
Taylor sounds like the perfect sweetener in a deal. Still some upside + production and a guy that I don’t think is really in Seattle’s future plan.
Give them Taylor and Fant both. I think they will want to stay top 5 to get either Wilson or Anderson. Cards will have to weigh on buidling depth with multiple picks or getting Anderson.
I think those two will have that debate: take the only plus talent or take the haul of picks.
Chicago is in such a fun spot. Their new GM who didn’t pick Fields is in a spot to make his career.
Keep #1 and trade Fields for a second rounder to someone like Tennessee? Fields & Henry would be a fun offense.
Trade Fields and then flip #1 to Baltimore for Lamar? They have the cap space to do a Watson-esque deal for Lamar.
Trade the #1 for a godfather deal & keep Fields?
How about Taylor AND a certain safety with a salvage title? Pretty sweet.
And…. now I’m writing an article for tomorrow about what I would give the Bears
Sweet.
I’m thinking maybe 5, 20, Taylor and Fant, 2023 R2.
I hope you’ll consider the possibility raised during the livestream that Levis might be there for us at 5 without any additional cost. Compare the 2 scenarios — trading up for Schneider’s guy (Richardson if you ask me) or “settling” for Levis but retaining all your picks
To be mean, I think the conversation starts with “We did you a favor by not trading you Wilson”.
Beyond the matter of what it would cost to trade up in a future year or the ’23 prospects vs. some actual or notional future group, there’s the question of the top QBs being available *at all*. We are not very many bounces of the ball distant from a universe where the top picks might run, say
Houston
Indy
Atlanta
Carolina
… and in such a world, Seattle might sit at 5 with all the extra draft capital it wants and literally have no option to buy into a QB pick. That could very easily occur next offseason, especially if there end up being only ~2 top QBs. If Caleb Williams and Drake Maye are truly all that yet nobody else in the ’24 class really steps forward, and the (let’s say) Bucs and Titans have earned 1.01 and 1.02 — like they did in the Jameis-Mariota draft — then those picks are simply not available to 30 other teams at any price. The mere fact that the team that earned 1.01 this year has QB settled and is keen to trade instead of exercise the pick is a minor miracle.
Very astute point.
That next there may be zero market to move up.
At least AZ ad maybe Chicago and maybe Houston might not feel they need a qb yet.
I’d like to congratulate the Saints on the signing of Derek Carr. What a fantastic move to assure semi-adequacy for the foreseeable future. With Carr instead of Dalton, New Orleans’ ‘expected wins’ zoom from 9.0 to 9.3. $150m over the next four seasons for what, at best, could be an additional 1.2 wins over the life of that contract is wise.
Maybe it’s just me, but paying Andy Dalton $3m and surrounding him with $34m of talent at other positions seems highly preferable. Maybe you have to offer Dalton $5m this season. Ok.
I think my point, if one exists, is that overpaying for adequacy is, for some reason, an acceptable blunder. Dalton at $3m – great deal. Dalton at $37m – absurd. Derek Carr is Andy Dalton is Derek Carr – it’s lunacy.
If you have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to go get a guy who may be A GUY, you do it. There are three of them, arguably four. Go get yours and refuse to ride the carousel of mediocrity.
Rob – you’re amazing. Also, you may need an intervention, but we’ll talk about that after the draft.
100%
It’s still insane to me that people watched the big 3 at the combine and are still calling for the hawks to trade down from 5.
Sometimes it’s hard to add comments on here because you’re so thorough in your articles, Rob.
“Schneider was seemingly willing to move on from prime Russell Wilson — in his peak — to draft Mahomes in 2017. He was willing to trade Wilson in 2018 to select Allen as a replacement.”
I always found this interesting for two reasons. 1. Even having a top QB, John was willing to go out and get a comparable or better one, on a rookie deal. 2. John knows his players and knew what a headache Wilson was becoming.
“If you turn Wilson into a franchise QB, a left tackle and a pass rusher, plus some veterans — isn’t that all you can ask for?”
More than you could ask for. Turning Wilson into a franchise QB is all I ask, everything else is cherry on the top. But if we can’t deliver on getting a new franchise QB, then man did we blow it.
Anthony Richardson is starting to look like the ideal fit for this team. Levis is up there too. And can’t go wrong with Stroud, just a great all around QB. We really need one of these three and then we can sit back and enjoy a decade of championship football. Make it happen John.
Speaking about short shuttle times, one player that may be overlooked at a potential position of some need as a potential mid-round pick, specifically: TE-Zach Kuntz: Well worth some consideration.
per CBS: “”Chris Trapasso “”We’ve mentioned the absurd efforts from Richardson and Adebawore. Let’s give Kuntz some shine. This former Penn State tight end measured in at 6-foot-7 and 255 pounds with 34-inch arms and ran 4.55 in the 40 and led the way in all the major drills at his position. Highest vertical (40 inches) and broad jump (10-foot-8) and, stunningly, the quickest three-cone at a receiver like 6.87 seconds. You know how hard it is for a 6-7 tight end to execute a three-cone drill that clean?””
I had a brief look at Kuntz and tape and… it wasn’t good
Love the idea of taking a QB, but I’m not sure I love the idea of trading up. The track record of teams trading up into (or within) the top 5 for a QB is downright horrifying. Here are the examples since 2000:
2021 – Trey Lance, 49ers from 12 to 3 (two future firsts, future third)
2018 – Sam Darnold, Jets from 6 to 3 (two seconds, next year’s second)
2017 – Mitch Trubisky, Bears from 3 to 2 (third, fourth, future third)
2016 – Jared Goff (plus a fourth and a sixth), Rams from 15 to 1 (two seconds, third, future first, future third)
2016 – Carson Wentz (plus a future fourth), Eagles from 8 to 2 (third, fourth, future first, future second)
2012 – RG3, Commanders from 6 to 2 (second, two future firsts)
2009 – Mark Sanchez, Jets from 17 to 5 (second and three players)
2001 – Michael Vick, Falcons from 5 to 1 (third, future second, player)
I said this above but this is Schneider trading up:
DK, Lockette, Taylor (I call it a positive), Dickson, Jarran Reed. Barton is the only one that I found as a failure. But he fit their traits. Those are his best draft picks in the last 5 or 6 years.
I trust John on what he does. He’s very good about knowing what to give him. For draft picks, not safeties (I put that on Pete). Can’t win if you play scared.
And Goff got them to a Super Bowl, Wentz would have won the MVP the year they won the Super Bowl if he wouldn’t have gotten hurt, and there isn’t a Falcons fan alive that would call that a bad trade.
If Vick didn’t get in trouble they would have kept him til he retired.
And if the WTFs don’t destroy RGIII, what could have been… that aside, the “trade up for a QB is doomed because of these guys” is about equivalent to MVP can’t win the SB curse – destroyed by Pat Mahomes (trade up, MVP/SB champ)
Yep.
Plus some of those trades are for teams either way outside like goff or plain stupid like wentz….in value.
People need to check out the allen trade. It was nothing compared to our very own box safety. And that was five spots.
Some of those trades like for darnold are only slightly higher than we paid for clowney and Sheldon richardson to do very little and the jets were/are a mess.
Seattle’s decided average with ascending talent in some spots. When the jets per example or the bears did their move ups their teams were a actually bad hoping on a rookie to make them better.
We have tackles, offensive weapons, good to great corners, retain neal and be smart about the rest of the draft FA and then next year a ton of cash to use in FA.
You left off a few. For starters mahomes and Lamar were both traded up for. I don’t have the list I’m front of me and I don’t really want to spend a lot of time to prove the point but a lot of trade ups have worked. Also a lot of teams drafted busts with their native picks. If you trust your scouting and think you have the guy, go get him. Occasionally that onvolves having the stones to go straight for the green.
So Derrick Carr gets benched/ cut in Vegas and turns that into a 5 yr /150 mil deal. WTF
Then people have the gall to debate why you take a QB at 5 over a defensive tackle with legal and character issues.
Add that Carr is actually not that good. Never has been.
That was my point he is average or below average at best.
Certainly Geno loves the Seahawks and might return, but I still think he may prefer the Bucs, if he gets the sense Seattle will draft a quarterback. He would likely prefer going to Tampa to be their QB of the foreseeable future battling it out w Carr for the NFC South than being stuck in a bridge QB situation, he’d have to leave a year or two later anyway.
Good point. And with his old coaches there too, it only makes it all the more attractive.
I’ve been a long time lurker on this site for years now. A++ coverage this year Rob. Best draft content you can find on the web, PERIOD.
A few thoughts coming out of the last week. I am convinced now more than ever that the hawks will be trading up:
1) Levis, Stroud, and Richardson, are big time toolsy QBs with immense upside. Each has unique traits that we know JS will love. I suspect quite a few GMs share this same view and are likely to be put off by Bryce Young’s size
2) As many (especially Rob) have stated, QB was likely their intention this year all along regardless of the Geno resurgence, given their unique opportunity this year (extra capital and a top #5 gift), plus the need for a long term QB solution.
3) Up until last week there were 6 players worthy of top 5 consideration in my opinion (Levis, Stroud, Richardson, Young, Anderson, Carter). Jalen Carter has just reduced that number to 5. If we believe that JS was thinking QB all along, then we were hoping that BOTH Anderson and Carter would be off the board (which was a likely scenario), leaving us with whomever is left of the Levis, Stroud, Richardson trio. That is no longer a possibility – I can’t see Tyree Wilson going before our pick and I think Bryce Young’s size will scare teams enough to make him QB4 in this draft.
I believe the Jalen Carter situation has just created a greater sense of urgency to move up the draft board and secure one of the top 3 QBs. I just don’t see us leaving it up to chance hoping that one of the top 3 QBs magically falls to us. I’d take it a step further (as I have seen a lot of chatter about trading to #3 w/Arizona), to say that the hawks must be bold about a move up to #1. Trading to #2 or #3 just doesn’t sit well with me. You like one of these guys? GO GET HIM, guarantee it. The future success of this franchise over the next 10+ years depends on it.
While the media is just now catching on that the hawks may take a QB at #5, they seem to forget that we have the second most draft capital behind Houston, and are just as likely as Indy or Carolina to move up. We are as equipped as any other team in the league to be aggressive here.
As the franchise tag window passes and free agency begins, Geno will likely remain unsigned as we let him feel out the market. When that happens the rest of the league as well as the media may begin to catch on to the hawks true intentions. If we are going to get aggressive, I’d like to see us make a move here I the next few weeks.
Quick plug – I just became a Patreon supporter last year to help support Rob and this site. If you’re one of the many lurkers like me who have been quietly enjoying his work for years please consider subscribing!
Thank you!
Welcome out of the shadows!
I agree with the GO GET HIM plan. But who is HE? I’ll trust JS’s evaluation, but I like Stroud.
Hope you keep commenting; your points were well thought out.
Thank you! I plan to stick around and keep commenting, this is a fantastic community.
FWIW I support JS fully and trust his evaluation.
If it were me right now, I’d be leaning Richardson.
I feel like we keep hearing from the media & twitter about how raw he is and how much of a project it will be to develop him (lazy take)…the guy is going to enter the league as a top 3 rushing QB instantly which provides a decent floor right off the bat.
The upside needs no explanation, we’re talking potential league MVP…the guy can be 1 of 1
Welcome!
I’m struggling with the idea of trading up. I’m wondering who the “Russell Wilson” is in this draft. I’d be interested in a deep dive into the second tier QB’s. Are we overlooking somebody?
Nope
This Derek Carr contract reduces the chances of Geno Smith coming back. Usually when the Seahawks make an offer there is very little wiggle room. If Geno Smith thinks he is going to get Derek Carr money. Go for it. In my opinion the Saints overpaid for Carr. Derek Carr’s deal is actually $150mil for 4 years. 100mil guaranteed.
The Saints just assured themselves 4 yrs of mediocrity. The guys gets benched / cut by Vegas and another team thinks he is worth $100 mil guarenteed. Crazy
Have you seen the actual breakdown though? It’s only $60M guaranteed at signing. $10M more becomes guaranteed for the 2025 season in March 2024. The other $30M becomes guaranteed March 2025 so they could cut him before that as the Raiders just did.
Cap Hit / Dead Cap
2023: $7.2M / $60M
2024: $35.7M / $52.8M
2025: $45.7M / $17.1M (Post 6/1: $5.7M 2024; $11.4M 2025)
2026: $55.7M / $11.4M (Post-6/1: $5.7M 2025; $5.7M 2026)
2027: unconfirmed void year ($5.7M dead cap)
For me, this is basically a 2 year deal with a team option for a 3rd year. There’s zero chance he plays in 2026 at a $55.7M cap hit. This is pretty much exactly how I would expect Geno’s contract to look if we re-sign him, but hopefully 1 fewer year and a lot less money. I don’t know how anyone can see a contract like this and not immediately think “we really need to draft a QB when Derek Carr is worth a $35M or $45M cap hit). A QB market correction has to be coming at some point, but I guess not this year. Maybe teams will finally figure it out once they see Daniel Jones playing on a $45M AAV.
I’m going play devil’s advocate here with this mock draft. In this I got a trade but it wasn’t pick 5. I tried to move up but couldn’t get a trade. I did get a trade with the Cowboys. I got 26 and 58 trading 20 and 2024 5th round pick.
5 Bryce Young
He nailed it at Alabama pro day and he’s last one of the 4 left.
26 Darnell Washington
Seattle wants to run ball and having this guy on the line is like an athletic 6th OL. I was completely sold on this guy with the gauntlet drill. He soothly ran straight down the line catching the ball by engulfing the ball with large hands away from his body.
37 Drew Sanders
I hope this guy slips here. Seattle absolutely needs an inside LB as much as they need DL players. The reason he here is he had 1 spectacular year to show at inside LB but he has what we want speed and he’s a play maker 9.5 sacks.
52 Keanu Benton
This is guy to Mona spot at nose tackle, Al Woods can’t do it all by his self. The combine aren’t bad they just don’t stand out but his drills in combine showed his knowledge and attitude.
58 Luke Wyler
Ever fiber in my bodies says Nooo so that why does it and they pickup this pick.
83 Byron Young
Alabama Pro day agility test numbers was nothing to excited about and 3.5 sacks he slides. This is like an Abraham Lucas scenario. He has the physical build of defensive lineman.
123 Jordan McFadden
I drafted this to be backup on offensive line. I like him as a OG to step in when There’s a G injury and he has experience at OT if necessary.
153 Garett Williams
This where Seattle takes a chance on a CB. This guy had an amazing first year in college and halfway way thru his second year he tore an ACL and got lost. He worked his back in third year and by end of he looked like he did his first year.
156 Chris Rodriguez jr.
His stats fell off this year but who can you blame him that Kentucky line sucked. He didn’t participate in the combine so I think that help him slid to here
198 Puka Nacua
I’m just looking for Doug Baldwin pick here. This my value pick.
This my mock today and I’m sure that after cuts, free agency signings and my last mock before the draft will continue to change.
Frank got released by the Chiefs I wonder if he has anything in the tank and they kick the tires. Only saw the playoff games and he looked ok to me.
It’s tempting but I wonder if that’s me wanting to fix the mistake of him leaving. Unless he wanted to come in really cheap he plays a position that’s covered with young talent. I’m really tired of the vets getting all the snaps and young guys that were excited about never seeming to take that last step. Cha I think mentioned the idea of packaging Taylor with picks to move up and mentioned the benifit of making sure Mafe gets the starts. Going younger and keeping a vet or 2 around for rotation has to become the way of doing business.
Say Geno signs before the draft with say Tampa or the Commanders, and 4 QBs go in the top 4 with the Seahawks still at 5.
Do you take Will Anderson or do you move into obtain draft capital for next years draft to get a QB of the future?
Another way to say this- do you feel urgency if Geno leaves to be in the top 4 picks? Will the FO entertain this scenario as an acceptable place to end up?
To me, there is an urgency to get into the top 3 no matter what. Geno doesn’t offer enough to get over the hump with where the team is with him. If you don’t get one of the Big 3 this year, what are you going to do? Go with Lock? You can’t guarantee that any future picks with be in a range to get a quarterback next year.
I don’t think they can trade back and I don’t think they can trade for future picks. Don’t get cute and try to outsmart anyone anymore. Put Anthony Richardson in one hand and 2 first round picks for 2024 in the other. Which hand will fill up faster?
The media narrative has finally shifted:
https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/article/matthew-berrys-nfl-combine-buzz/23-most-interesting-things-i-heard-combine
I didn’t know Rob was at the combine.
“Conventional wisdom points to Geno Smith returning to Seattle, but after talking with folks that’s certainly not a foregone conclusion. Seattle (especially with No. 5 overall pick) is doing a deep dive on the QB class in a significant way. As one source said to me “What’s better? $30 million a year for Geno coming off one good year (where he tailed off in the second half) or draft a rookie and keep Drew Lock?” Drafting a QB with the fifth overall pick, keeping Lock and letting Geno walk is not out of the realm of possibility.”
😂👌
I just finished my “daily” mock draft and ended up with a lot of decent players & I think this is my best one, so far. those first 6-7 picks are pretty damn good. – IMO. I hope many of these become Seahawks.
the last 5-6 picks are perhaps arbitrary. Day 3 is a crap shoot, but JS gives them ammo to work with.
03/13/2023: My Mock using NFLmockDraftDatabase.com — w/ 1 mid & 1 late Rd trade downs – 13 picks total from good old “Trader John”.
5. Will Levis, QB Kentucky —-QBOTF—- IMO- The most likely to fall to #5. + I like him a lot.
20. Drew Sanders, LB Arkansas —-LB help needed due to Banks injury & Barton’s limitations.
37. Calijah Kancey, DT Pittsburgh —-Speed paired with Mazi Smith’s strength & power. Hell yes!
52. Mazi Smith, DT Michigan —-Smith’s Strength/Power with Kancey’s Speed/Get-off. Hell yes!
83. Luke Wypler, OC Ohio State —-Finally a Center for hopefully many years to come. A big need.
131. Kenny McIntosh RB Georgia —-RB-2 with + pass catching abilities & starting capabilities.
151. Zacch Pickens, DT South Carolina —-DL to add to rotation, replacing one of the “old-timers”.
154. Julius Brents, S Kansas St. —-Adams who? Brents obviously “fell” to us very unexpectedly here.
163. Zack Kuntz, TE Old Dominion —-A very tall TE, with decent production but from a small school.
198. Andrei Iosivas, WR Princeton —-A Sleeper? a WR-3 is a need, see his stats (6/943/7-TD’s)
206. Thomas Incoom, EDGE Cent. Michigan —-Late shot at an EDGE? (2022 had 11,5 sacks/19-TFL!)
232. Warren McClendon, OT/OG | Georgia —-Short OT, OG convert falls this far? 6-4/306/34.5“-arms.
242. Darrell Luter Jr, CB, South Alabama —-CB for PC. 5-11/189/32.3/8“-arms, 40.5‘-Vert, + potential?
———> Not perfect, but a draft where I really like a lot of these players to become Seahawks. The last 4-5 picks are arbitrary, & other players may be picked there, but those first 6-7 picks I like a whole bunch.
I’m sure Geno wants his money but should also know staying Seattle is the best opportunity to actually win a Super Bowl. He knows the coaches, players, and offense. Going somewhere else means change and I found that takes year to get on track with a new team if it even happens. Look at Russel Wilson if you need an example.
Madmark: I agree 100. But with the players it’s all about SHOW ME THE MONEY.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mBS0OWGUidc.
Current Odds (Fanduel): Number 1 Overall Pick
B Young -190 CJ Stroud +350 A Richardson +600 W Anderson +1200 W Levis +1400 T Wilson +3500
I like Kunitz.
Kismet. Through a most unlikely set of circumstances we end up with a totally unexpected high draft pick, and in a season when a need for a QB is high, there is suddenly the most attractive QB choices in recent memory staring us in the face.
Meant to be. The signs are there. The stars have aligned.
On another subject, I am expecting Young to light it up at his pro day. Well calculated, he beefed his weight up for the Combine, but did not test. Now, at his pro day, he will have his playing weight back, and will be throwing to familiar receivers on a familiar field. He will be looking to show teams that he is ready to step in on day one and contribute. Ideal for a head coach that needs to win now.
How that will affect who will take him, and when, I do not know.
Exactly what I’m wondering at this point.
Who are the teams that can afford to swing for the fences and be patient enough to develop Richardson for 1-2 years?
Of all the landing places – we are also the best one for Richardson (assuming we re-sign Geno) – – gets time to develop before he’s thrown to the wolves, good WR’s and RB, by ’24, hopefully a decent O-line too.
From our side – I definitely understand the enthusiasm around trading up – but I’m actually pretty content where we are – I do not think we are going to be aced out of one of the top QB’s – I think we (and I’m also in this camp) are all a little weary of a smaller QB, but seems like the rest of the league is mostly just fine w Bryce Young and the skills he brings, and it seems really unlikely at this point that he’s the 4th QB drafted. And while I guess it’s possible that QB’s go 1-2-3-4 in the draft – that has never happened in the history of the draft, and while this is a strong class, it’s a stretch to say it’s a historically good one. So, I think we’ll get one of our guys – and if that guy ends up being Young, I’m also OK, because seems like for all the size concerns, he’s a massive talent, and a guy who has excelled and won at every stop of his athletic life to date.
Take indy. They had a good line and running back. Young could do some damage out there even with the ascending Lawrence.
Richardson could possibly look like a failure for awhile there if he starts immediately.
I agree this is the best place for Richardson, but I wouldn’t rule out him not starting day one. This is a QB friendly team and they will put him in a great spot to ease in and succeed immediately, with running the football, play action, run/pass option, and easy to digest concepts. His unique ability to create should make it seamless, just as we designed a good system for Russ starting in his first year.
Frank Clark is about to get released.
Any takers.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs-set-to-release-three-time-pro-bowler/ar-AA18hVZT?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=a9c3ae79845f4fb1b70a89cf4a4db51d&ei=29
What’s the price? He was set to have a cap hit of like $28m this year…
I’m now reading on other sites that maybe the Seahawks can’t afford to keep Geno and should move on. SDB is so far ahead of the curve, it’s amazing. Thank you, Rob, and thank you to all the reasonable, rational people that contribute to the conversations here. It’s so refreshing.
Thank you
I’ve been noticing a number of mock drafts lately putting Levis at #9 with the Panthers. Don’t know if that’s just an easy mock but I have a hard time imagining the Seahawks passing him up if he’s available.
Anthony Richardson here, as soon as he’s asked about the Seahawks he lights up about meeting Carroll. Didn’t do it with any other team.
https://youtu.be/gqw–DvI0cc
This is very similar to the way Jonathan Taylor talked about his meeting with Seattle prior to the 2020 draft
Big difference between the typical “Yes sir” and what he said about Pete. I don’t think it’s a surprise that Carroll can be a charmer. Also made me think about me in my 20s meeting the big old names in my job. I hope we get him, he’d have the chance to develop nicely in Seattle.
Rob I also wanted to say thank you for your dedication and hard work, this was the best draft coverage someone can expect, to the point that sometimes I wished you wouldn’t draw attention to some players because you never know if the drafting teams of other NFC West teams don’t follow the Jeremiah approach and let others watch tape for them 🙂
So cool. Sometimes I forget Pete used to be one of, if not, the best recruiters in the country in his USC heydey and he still uses that charm 20 years later. It’s like he wants players to buy in to him without even knowing if they’ll be on his team, just in case.
I’m assuming this means we will pass on him?
I kid. I kid.
Seahawks resigned Geno 3yr/105M
Have to see the terms but so much for a team friendly deal and using the cap space on defense.
Looks like “up to” $52 million in the first year. I’d like to see what are the guarantees and what the cap hit is in year 1.
Damn. Why not wait? This is all Pete.
Huge overpay. Why not let him test the open market.
Wait until we see the guarantees/incentives before we can judge the deal. I used 3 years/$105 million for my example of how you could structure a deal that would work as a bridge for Seattle.
I’m thinking the structure must be favorable to us given that the one who broke the news didn’t even report the guarantees…?
The $52m will be guaranteed.
This guarantees QB is the target. Give him a chance to hopefully not reach unreachable escalators this year, say he underperformed and then release him with minimal damage moving forward while handing the keys over to Richardson, Stroud or Levis the next year…maybe…hopefully…
Ability to earn 52m in the first year? That better be only on the condition he win a Super Bowl and be included in the 105m.
I’m a bit disappointed in the Seahawks offseason this year.
His signing bonus is probably $35-40m with a very low base pay plus incentives to get it up to $12m. At least I hope so.
I think it makes Richardson more likely but maybe less likely they trade up?
Did people see how the Georgia team reacted to Nolan Smith’s 40? They were SO into it. You can tell the man is a leader of men.
Are his arms too short for Seattle? I just know that he is a beast athletically, incredible character, and is excellent against the run. Would love him in navy blue.
I’m so sick PC and JS.. what an overpay of Geno.. you can’t be a contender wasting money like they do, this just screams 1 and done again. crappy draft position and no real hope of the SB..
Why couldn’t they have just signed their other #1 QB and drafted one, then spend the money where it would have counted..
Damn I’m disappointed.
My fatal flaw. When I first heard the news of the Geno Smith contract. I was irate. To say the least. I said. “Well now I am going to be a Joe Burrow and Cincinnati Bengals fan”. So what is my fatal flaw. I jumped to conclusions before I had all the facts. After hearing more of the details, I am not as upset as I was when I first heard the news. Geno Smith gets 40mil guaranteed. The Seahawks are only on the hook for 40mil. And basically, the Seahawks can get out of this deal after only one year. John Schneider is still going to have some money left over in free agency to help the defense. So it is not the end of the world. The Seahawks can still go QB if the player is still on the board.
These are the top five players in this draft. In no particular order.
1). C.J. Stroud
2) Anthony Richardson
3) Will Levis
4) Will Anderson Jr.
5) Bryce Young
Seattle is guaranteed 1 of those players.
We know that there is a 99.9% Indianapolis and Carolina will take a QB.
All signs are pointing to Carolina moving up to take a QB. They are almost willing to mortgage their future for a QB. Carolina does have draft capital to entice teams ahead of the Seahawks. Especially after the Christian McCaffrey trade.
Raiders and Falcons also need a QB. What are those teams going to do? Also, there is a 95% chance that Houston will take a QB.
Including Seattle there are six teams (including Seattle) at least looking at the QB position in the top ten.
This is before free agency. So, things can and probably will change before draft day.
Just for the record. Anthony Richardson was impressed by Pete Carroll. You got to hand it to Pete Carroll. The guy is a saleman. https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/seahawks-combine-meeting-with-anthony-richardson-felt-different-says-qb/ar-AA18ix6H?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=2f28ed12c7144f7486ca0e5be5717dd0&ei=7