Friend of the blog Tony Pauline isn’t just a terrific draft analyst. He’s one of the best insiders in the business and a proven, trusted source.
So when he reports the following, it’s worth paying attention:
I’ve been told by a very good source that the Seahawks would like to acquire Yannick Ngakoue via trade. My sources tell me they believe compensation would include something like a second-round selection and possibly a situation where the Seahawks swap their pick in round one for the Jags pick in the second round.
The fact the source even proposed a very specific level of compensation is interesting. It almost reads like this is someway down the road.
The Jaguars do need to save money. Cutting Marcell Dareus saved $20m. Trading AJ Buoye saved another $11.4m. Spotrac suggests the Jaguars have as much as $33m in available cap space following these moves.
The thing is, they seem determined to try and trade Nick Foles. Gardner Minshew deserves to be the starting quarterback next season. Foles was a free agency flop — getting injured then failing to steal the job away from Minshew on his return.
It’s possible, perhaps even likely, that Foles was a Tom Coughlin signing. With Coughlin now gone the current regime might want to make a statement of faith in Minshew, while also getting out of the Foles contract as soon as possible.
It also wouldn’t be an ideal scenario to have Foles on the bench every time Minshew has a rough outing. They need to give Minshew an opportunity to be their franchise quarterback without any media pressure if he faces some sophomore difficulties.
Trading Foles will cost nearly $34m. That’s his year-two dead cap hit.
It’d be another Brock Osweiler situation. A team just looking to get out of a bad contract as soon as possible in order to prevent the situation lingering beyond this year.
Yet any trade would eat up all of Jacksonville’s available cap space. So in order to do this, they’ll need to make further savings.
They can save $12.5m by cutting or trading Marqise Lee, Abry Jones and Geoff Swaim. If they’re willing to move on from center Brandon Linder, then it’s another $8m. That’d create enough room for a draft class and maybe a couple of cheap free agent signings. It’s not enough for a draft class and to retain Yannick Ngakoue on the franchise tag though.
Thus — why trading him is very likely.
It’d be interesting to know where the Jaguars honestly think they’re at. They’ve become a dysfunctional franchise again. They’re trading away assets. They’re seemingly getting younger.
Is this a full blown rebuild or reset? Or are they trying to do a bit of both — not collapse any further while also accepting change is required?
For example, they’ve had ample opportunity to say, ‘Calais Campbell isn’t going anywhere’ and they’ve not done it. The owner and GM have both been asked. Despite his clear influence, production and talent — they’re not even committing to him. The Walter Payton man of the year and a top-five statistical defensive lineman.
Here’s what David Caldwell said at the combine about Campbell:
“We think he still has a lot of football ahead of him. A lot of these pieces are fluid. If we add a piece or delete a piece, a lot of those decisions will be made dependent on what we do in free agency and the draft.”
It reads like a man who would ideally keep Campbell while appreciating it might not be possible.
Here’s what he said about A.J. Buoye in the same press conference:
“A.J. had a nice year last year. He has a lot of football left in him. Another player we like as a person and as a guy.”
Buoye was traded to the Broncos this week. The statements are almost identical. They like him, he has lots of football ahead of him. Buoye was dealt. Is Campbell on the way too?
It’ll be interesting to see what happens there — given we know how much the Seahawks admire Calais.
I digress. Back to Nagkoue. Whatever happens, it’s inevitable he will leave Jacksonville. They can’t afford him and he wants to go.
In an interview with John Clayton last week, Pete Carroll stated the following:
“What we’re trying to find is a real premier pass rusher to play the LEO spot and we need a run defender who can mix and do both (five-technique and LEO).
“The five technique guy generally has the ability to move inside on nickel situations and rush on the guard and that’s kind of how that formats but you’re looking for a unique, extraordinary pass rush guy for the LEO spot.”
I’ve not studied Ngakoue enough to say whether he’s a premier pass rusher suitable for the LEO but here’s what NFL.com says about him in their ‘top-100’ free agents list (Ngakoue is ranked at #5):
“Ngakoue specializes in the blind-side speed rush, a style of QB hunting that tends to generate takeaways via strip sacks and forced mistakes. Not yet 25 years old, he understands players with his profile will break the bank once the bids start rolling in.”
He has 37.5 sacks in four seasons. He’s not the twitchy, dynamic athlete we’ve seen them add at the position previously. Bruce Irvin, Cliff Avril and Frank Clark were all outstanding athletes. Yet they’ve also used Chris Clemons and his physical profile is similar to Ngakoue’s:
Chris Clemons
Height: 6-3
Weight: 255lbs
Arms: 32 1/4 inches
Forty: 4.64
10-yard: 1.72
Vertical: 35 inches
Broad: 9-6
Short shuttle: 4.58
Three cone: 7.47
Bench: 18 reps
Yannick Ngakoue
Height: 6-2
Weight: 252lbs
Arms: 32 1/2 inches
Forty: 4.75
10-yard: 1.64
Vertical: 34.5 inches
Broad: 9-10
Short shuttle: 4.58
Three cone: 7.35
Bench: 26 reps
Of course Clemons was a cheap trade addition with no financial or draft implications. Ngakoue would arrive in Seattle at a cost of picks and a big new salary.
Even so, the physical similarities are there. Do they see a new Chris Clemons in Ngakoue? Maybe.
That in itself leads to another issue though. Between 2010 and 2012, Clemons was the only pass rusher in Seattle. He desperately needed help. That’s why they drafted Bruce Irvin in 2012 and then signed Avril and Bennett the year after.
If they trade for Ngakoue, do they have the ability to sign others? To retain Clowney? Because they need a multi-faceted pass rush not a single, isolated star.
The answer is yes — they do have the ability. If they want to. The cash-rich teams (of which Seattle is one) can do pretty much what they want. They can offer up front money and manipulate cap hits quite easily. People look at cap space as a hard number. They reduce an APY from the amount as soon as a potential signing is touted. Yet in reality, Ngakoue could sign for $17-20m a year and have a 2020 cap hit of around $6m. Frank Clark’s cap hit in 2019 after a similar trade and extension was a mere $6.5m.
(I’ve suggested $17-20m because Dee Ford’s salary in San Francisco is $17m APY and the compensation is similar — so there’s the precedent. Ford’s year-one cap hit was $14m for what it’s worth)
The downside of this, of course, is you run the risk of cap difficulties down the line and a dead money problem. Seattle faced that after 2017. Yet there’s also pressure to win over the next 3-5 years. You don’t want to waste this Russell Wilson shaped window through fear of dead cap space in 2025.
So there’s the balancing act. This has always been an aggressive team. They go after their needs. Not every plan comes off. You can never accuse them, however, of lacking intestinal fortitude.
Whether they trade for Ngakoue or not — this will be a pro-active off-season.
A final point on the compensation. A second rounder feels right. It’s just a question of whether it’s this year or not. The Dee Ford trade between Kansas City and San Francisco was for a future second round pick.
The Seahawks have two second rounders this year so it might make sense to simply relinquish one of those. It really depends how they see this draft class.
Moving from #27 to #42 is tolerable in terms of value. There is some decent day two depth. What it would do, however, is minimise opportunities to add further picks in that area by losing a valuable trade-down chip (#27). That might be a price worth paying if Ngakoue provides sacks and regular pressure.
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I woke up today (before seeing the Pauline report) with the thought stuck in my head that we will get Ngakoue and Calais for a R2 + R4 and still have our full slate of draft picks to work with.
Realistic? Perhaps not. But neither was Clowney for a R3…
Time for JS to get aggressive, and the Jags are the perfect team to poach right now.
That would be absolutely sick. I wouldn’t even mind Clowney walking then.
Ngakoue + Campbell + Raekwon Davis + Zuniga/Okwara/Rasheem Green/Collier is a pretty solid DL
And we could get a WR/TE in R3, RB in R4 and fill out the depth with rest of the picks. Maybe get a nCB a’la Coleman via a late round trade….one can dream 😀
Do it! A million times yes. Perfect LEO for this scheme. This dude flat-out gets down on the outside.
– 1 of 7 players with at least 8 sacks each season since ’16
– 37.5 total sacks since ’16 (almost 10 a year)
– 14 FF (4th most in NFL)
– 85 QB hits (8th most in NFL
Then do we just offer him and Clowney identical contracts so there is no leveraging one before the other?
I have no idea.
They might have to, but if they didn’t wanna pay Frankie (still not sure why) they gonna pay Clowney?
Was it a matter of not wanting to pay Frank, or having to chose between him, Russell and Wagner? Remember, we were in a bad spot last year in terms of salary cap and draft picks, and trading Frank offered a solution to both problems.
That, and the offer was dang good. Like if we were to offer our R1 pick this year and R2 next year for Nagkoue.
Yannick is only 5 months older than Collier…and has 36 nfl sacks.
fun fact
I had that exact thought last night. Put them in the room together and say, “fellas, we want to build something amazing here.”
Spot on
And while he doesn’t have his 10 yd split, very few do, I’d say Ngakoue is a little more Avril esque than Clemons which ain’t a bad comp in itself.
I love the consistency that first stat you posted shows.
I’m biased. He was a big draft crush of mine that year
Fell in love when I watched him whip Taylor Decker and Conklin.
The problem I have is they could likely sign Fowler for the same amount and not have to give up any draft capital.
Could is the operative word. Benefit of a trade is the guarantee you get the guy you want. Fowler is going to be a sought after asset, no guarantees he signs with you for the money you want to pay him. A trade gives you the guy you want at a price you can live with.
I’m not sold on Ngakoue, but to me he’s a step above Fowler regardless.
Am I completely wrong for questioning if 8 sacks per year qualified as an “”elite pass rusher”” and justifies $20 million APY?
Doesn’t Fowler have a higher ceiling? Isn’t Quinn a greater value for the projected price?
You’re not wrong for questioning whether he’s elite or worth that kind of dough, but I think his consistency over four seasons overshadows one good year from Fowler. Fowler is the most sacks via the second hit of anyone last year, meaning he cleaned up after Aaron Donald and co. a lot.
Who knows, maybe Fowler is for real, but I wouldn’t bet on him over Ngakoue. Maybe the contracts will bear out a discrepancy, but maybe not.
Maybe its just me, but i just want a ton of oline and a DT from this draft class. Add an RB or WR or TE or LB/DB situationally when there’s value. Like if we could get 2 viable tackle prospects, that is long term gonna help this team for years. I get the championship window, but a cheap OL is a huggge asset. Especially with tackles. We saw the hawks offense collapse last year without a solid line because of injuries. Yeah the D was garbage, so its not the only culprit, but if we can take away the nfc west pass rush, we can negate our rivals game plans. A good D wont save us against those offenses. They are explosive and will score points in bursts..and if you give em enough opportunities they will run up the score. We need the long running drives to keep them off the field and minimize the number of drives they get, so our d needs to make fewer stops (and has optimal field position to eventually get a 3rd down). Besides, an extra tackle can just play inside at guard, like we have seen almost all our tackles begin as. They are the more versatile linemen body types.
Ouch…
Top 5: https://twitter.com/BillyM_91/status/1235396103085973504
Very strange of Carolina. They gave up the younger, more talented piece for the vet in a rebuild year. Needed a leader, I guess?
I think they’re eyeing someone at #7 (maybe a QB) and know that’ll mean they won’t get a LT, so they’ve simply acquired one.
Also, he’s a great guard, but hasn’t he missed a lot of games? Injury issues are the quickest way to wear out your welcome, even if you’re a really good player. Probably makes it easier.
On average about 2.5 games/season with minor injuries (ankle, etc.)
My fear is they’ll draft Simmons and there goes the dream
I also saw a rumor that that trade between Carina and the Chargers could be just the start of Cam going out west.
If they did a deal like this, who would some FA targets besides clowney be?
They would need another pass rusher like Fowler or Quinn, probably re-sign Jefferson. and then add another cheapish reclamation project like when we signed Avril.
I think Clowney is the perfect partner for Ngakoue, whereas Fowler and Quinn might be a bit to similar in their skillsets. If they made this trade you have your LEO, now you need someone to play the opposite side. Griffen is another great option if Clowney prices himself out of range.
Simo: Clowney and Ngakoue would be the perfect dual. But that would take a huge chuck out of our available salary cap.
Do you think PCJS even consider a trade up for Isaiah Simmons as an option?
Wouldn’t be possible after a Ngakoue trade, am i right?
I said in the piece it was unlikely.
And no, it wouldn’t be possible if they trade for Ngakoue.
which do you think would be better for the team ?
Pluses with either.
Clowney/Campbell/Yan
Then gamble on Jones and a draft pick for RT. It might mean saying goodbye to KJ and Britt.
Man… Yannick & Clowney would be nice. Would be very expensive though but may be worth it long run. I’d think that KJ and McDougald would be gone after this year.
Probably time to move on from KJ regardless, and by that point you would hope Blair would be ready to take over for McDougald.
McDougald was their most consistence secondary last season and that includes Diggs & Quail.
Hmmm… it would be nice to have a bit more clarity, because I get excited by possible scenarios everyday 😀
To be honest I have doubts they want 2 20+ mil DE/EDGEs on the roster.
Ngakoue and Clowney would likely cost 43-45m APY. Obviously we could lower the first year hit to 24-28m, but that would mean potential CAP hell down the road.
And Y+C would potentially mean no Reed. We’d have ultrathin depth at DT (Ford, Christmas and who else? Collier? Green?).
If we get Ngakoue we might re-sign Clowney…but I highly doubt we’ll be able to with the needs at DT, RT, WR3, RB depth. We could do it, but it would be a major win now mode and too risky imo.
I’d be fine with Ngakoue + Campbell (for like R2 + R4 + 2021 R1) + sign Ogbah/Beasley, Shelton, draft Wilson in R1, Raekwon Davis in R2
Ngakoue – Campbell – Davis/Ford/Shelton – Ogbah/Beasley/Green/Collier for DL
Brown – Jones – Britt – Fluker – Wilson for OL.
Get a WR in R3 and RB+TE depth and nCB in R5-R7 or UDFA and we seem solid
GoHawksDani, you’re probably right in the long run. In the short term there is almost no other way to fix our biggest problem. Moving forward, I’m sure the Hawks will prefer to draft defensive edge talent on rookie contracts and shed at least one of those big salaries, but that option doesn’t exist in this draft. Waiting on the draft to fix this problem means waiting at least one more year to find the talent, then a couple more years for that talent to learn the ropes in the NFL to become really productive. In the meantime, we’re looking at being on the edge of qualifying for the playoffs with no real chance of making the Super Bowl.
Are you willing to let 3 years of Russell Wilson’s prime slip away, or would it be better to pay up now and let the draft provide our next set of DEs three or four years down the line?
Yeah, it’s a hard position. I’m a risk-taker, but putting like 60m APY to the DL would be just way to much for me (because it’d mean backloading these contracts heavily. First year ~40m APY, second 60m APY, third 80m. If you need to guarantee half of the contracts and you max GTD first year you either need to almost fully GTD second year for everyone, or at least guarante 10-20-30m for the last year also. That could be huge dead money.
And 60m APY is not even that much. Ngakoue, Shelton and Clowney would probably cost that much.
If it’s not strictly win now mode, I think the way is to:
1, A great passrusher who can get 10 sacks at least with a good line
2, Veteran value (maybe Beasley or Ogbah, maybe even Griffen…someone with potential, but lower ceiling market)
3, Value with trade maybe (Campbell or Miller). Who’s cap hit is somewhat limited, but high potential
4, Finding hidden gems at the draft who can play into the rotation and generate pressure and 3-4 sacks
If we could get 2 guys with potential (Ngakoue and Beasley/Ogbah/Griffen), someone who could generate interior pressure (Davis, Campbell, Reed), and use guys with potential on a heavy rotation on the other side (Green, Collier, Beasley, Ogbah, rookie), it could work and keep us save in the long run also…we’ll see, I trust PCJS and excited-interested to see what they’ll do
The nice thing about back loading big contracts is that the cap will be going through the roof under the new CBA. I’d bet in 2-3 years 20m APY for a top pass rusher will seem like a bargain. Locking down young talent now is a good idea,
This all day.
Could the Seahawks just trying to create some leverage to negotiate with Clowney’s agent and save some half a million per year on his deal? I hope so.
Bring Calais here instead and keep the upper draft capital.
Nah, I think they’re trying to fix their pass rush. If anything, the message it would send to Clowney is: we’re going all in to contend and are committed to getting you a partner in crime next season.
Spot on Sea Mode
IMO, the message is that they’re improving their team with or without Clowney. Winning team, great culture: If you don’t want that, we probably don’t want you.
Watch, I’m wrong and Schneider is rolling out the red carpet as I type…
Rokas, this was my first assumption as well. I think they like Ngakoue, but this is also about sending a message to the Clowney camp. If JD wants too much then Seattle has a legit Plan B. Does Clowney truly want to play for a contender? He needs to be realistic in his asking price or Seattle will look at other options.
Pass rush is our Achilles heel so trying to sign both Clowney and Ngakoue is understandable, but I’m always nervous about straining the cap too much. Nobody wants to be the Panthers – including the Panthers.
To be clear, I think it’s been a positive and consistent message for years: Culture + competition. IMO, JS/PC don’t really posture or play games, but value and target certain players, sell their program and make competitive offers. Supreme confidence in the Seahawk way.
I see no messages here, other than we need rushers. If they sign Clowney, their right back where they were last year. And I do believe they want to sign him. To fix the issue, they need another rusher. To me it sounds like Ngakoue is at the top of their list.
If they can’t sign Ngakoue, it’s on to someone else. And if they can’t sign Clowney, then they’ll have to sign at least two new DEs.
I never really see the need to try and wish this into something like this
Rokas Ive been wondering the same thing. Why give up that much draft capital when you could make a run at Fowler for the same cost?
When an NFL team like the Seattle trade down does that mean that a lot of the players they want will still be available at the pick they trade into?
Yep
I think the Jags own pick 42 so that makes it slightly more tolerable especially if we lose 64. The price tag is what is most concerning. I suspect the Hawks don’t make this trade for a 1yr rental on a tag and aren’t planning to pay him top EDGE money.
I’m generally not a fan of mortgaging the future for now (the way teams like the Cowboys run their franchise), but if there was ever a time to go all in for a 2-3 year window it’s now. It perfectly lines up with Russ’ prime and the fact that despite his energy Carroll probably doesn’t have a lot of years left.
The next 2 months are gonna be wild. This team has so much ammo compared to usual, but so many holes.
If the trade does happen, I really hope it’s the first chess move because Yannick needs support. Maybe Clowney has told Seattle he won’t sign unless they can bring another premier rusher in.
I think this is entirely possible, and why wouldn’t Clowney make that a condition of resigning. Is it really any different than what Russ is doing/saying, “we need more superstars”?
Clowney was basically a one man band last year, seeing countless double teams and tremendous attention. As we have noted on this blog, he really had very little help. Opposing teams weren’t concerned with anyone else on the def line beating them.
Pair up those two guys and now you have something, with or without Reed.
I like that stat in the embedded video: “only player with 20+ sacks and 10+ FFs since 2016.”
I’m definitely not a fan of trading for him. Would much rather sign Clowney at 22-23 million per year. Clowney is a freak of nature and freak athlete. With the cap rising every year I just don’t understand why you would lock him and down and try to surround him with young talent on that defense to help him rush the passer. Clowney had no help last year, faced the most double teams, and played INJURED. It will be a huge mistake if we let Clowney walk.
I get the feeling we want two bookend young studs on the line for the next 4 years. We will find a way to sign both Clowney and Yannick.
As Sea Mode said earlier, this is the type of move to lure Clowney into staying with us.
Another thing is if we pay Yannick first at about 20 mil per year then we can pay Clowney 23 mil and both will be happy. I really hope this happens because like I said yesterday and Rob mentions in his article, he is comparable to Clemmons. He has a much better 10 yard split also to go along with a relentless motor. I’ve loved this kid since college.
And don’t forget that with an extra game and less chance of a first round bye, we need all the bodies we can get.
I hope JS is trying to get a package deal with Yannick and Campbell. Obviously they work well together and we could seriously use them both.
Collier+1st for Yan+Campbell.
That’s two 1st rd picks, how could the Jags refuse? haha
Trading L.J. blows 8 million in cap space, you’re not trading him
They can’t trade Collier
If we do sign him, we’ll need a coin jar for misspelling his name.
I’m already in for a buck fiddy.
I think this is great. The level of intrigue and the drama of the beginning of the offseason frenzy. I do think that both Yannick AND Calais have to be on the table. That front with Clowney or even another FA if he leaves is formidable. What also needs to happen is they have to acquire a young, hungry LB who can physically do the job at an elite level. The off the field issues need to be fully explored, but I don’t want to be sitting here in a few years lamenting the fact that someone took Willie Gay jr. when we had the chance. His workout says that he’s a top 40 athlete. His past may push him down. It only takes one team to say “yes”. Why not us? Depending on what we have after a potential trade, I think Dugger and Gay should be high priority targets for this team. Dugger can play OLB and Nickel. Speed and physicality all over the defense is a must. Veteran front killing it, young LB’s running to the ball and covering people. Secondary with speed and versatility, (Griffin, Blair, Diggs, Flowers). That defense could be championship worthy with Russell and the offense doing their thing.
I guess you can’t have everything in life. It would be nice to have Dugger, but do you miss out on your starting RT of the forcible future. Both will go early in the 2nd, if not the 1st Rd.
Gay Jr. may slide into Rd 4, then great. But, I doubt it. You could try to trade down from 59 to obtain more picks in the 3rd & 4th Rds, namely 77 & 115 from DEN. But, you lose out on the potential of Davis playing 3T, or a quick WR that may have slid down to them. It could be a RB that their high on.
Or, they could use it for another trade for Diggs WR, or Slay as a starting CB/NB. The options are all their for JS & Co. You never know what JS may pull out of the hat these days. He’s been remarkable with the recent trade acquisitions. Get out the popcorn is right. It’s going to be fun to watch.
Free agency is gonna be fun. Pass the popcorn.
Bobby, remember the bad ole days when free agency would roll around and Ken Behring and Tom Flores would be out on Behring’s boat? The message was clear that they weren’t going to participate or do anything to improve the team.
I like this a lot better.
Rob and/or SDB,
If you had to speculate where Tony’s source came from, where do you think? Seahawks camp, Jags camp, Yannick’s agent? I can’t really put my finger on which I believe it would have come from. That could help us in determining more about the speculative offer.
Yannicks Agent is my guess. Attempt to drive up price by increasing attention and or competing offers.
Yannick is getting paid regardless. IMO, it was the Jaguars’ camp leaking the Seahawks’ offer to drive up the return.
Speculating about speculation isn’t going to help us
Rob, is speculating about speculating about speculation the same as 3 dimensional chess?
Yes
I like Yannick, but truly hate the idea of giving up a 2nd AND swapping our 1st and their 2nd.
He’s a good player, but he’s not that great. And now we are talking about serious Cap Space AND Draft Capital for a team that really needs to get better.
If Sea wants to do this, they need to hold firm at R2 + a conditional pick. Jacksonville is not in the driver’s seat here. Yannick does not want to return…so why is this not more similar to the Clowney situation last year?
I think Yannick + Clowney would be a really great combo, but I think if you are sacrificing the draft capital mentioned, that it is a mistake. This team is not 2 players away – they need to hang onto to Pick 27 which allows them to create more draft capital should they choose. It also allows them to make an aggressive trade up if the right guy is there. 27, IMO, should be non-negotiable. 49 is not a good range to be in as the trade value is greatly diminished and the difference between pick 59 and 49 is more of a “what’s your flavor” not “said player is much more valuable.”
I think the difference between the clowney situation last year is:
1: With limited options in the draft compared to last year that drives the price up
2: A better comparison would be the Clark situation as it’s before the draft and he can be extended
Matt, I look on it this way. Our first is almost a second rounder. All were doing is moving down a few slots and giving up a low second rounder (consider it almost a 3rd rounder). In a draft class where what you can get at 27 is probably someone who doesn’t grade out as a 1st rounder, it doesn’t feel like we’re giving up that much.
We are not moving down a few slots…we are moving down 22 spots. That’s almost an entire round to drop. Combined with trading a 2nd on top of that…that significantly changes the draft for a guy who is a good, not great player.
So we are going to pay a premium in draft capital and real cap space for a good player. That is not a good way to do business. It’s one thing to overpay a free agent – it’s another to overpay a guy and have to pay the extra draft capital for him. It just doesn’t make sense to me.
I’d much rather overpay Dante Fowler and Clowney and maintain the draft capital to get a player or several players we think can help. I just don’t think Yannick + Clowney puts us over the top. They need one more great player on defense and that possibility disappears by going from 27-59-64 to 49-64.
Good debate here.
Yeah, those are good points. Not quite the Clark situation though since we could have paid Clark and Clark was willing to play for us. Yannick is out and they need capspace. Similarities to both for sure.
I completely agree with you Matt. Way too much to give up for a guy that you then have to pay the same amount that you would pay to Fowler.
“the physical similarities are there. Do they see a new Chris Clemons in Ngakoue?” – A great question.
Why? – Because we are talking about a 252 pounds edge that runs a 4.75 40, with 32.5 inch arms. That’s exactly the kind of profile that we usually react to here with “NEXT” regardless of college production etc.
It’s another reminder that there are superior athletes and there are superior football players and those two groups are not inclusive just like the fact that no sub 4.4 wide receiver has ever made it to the hall of fame (yet…).
Agree that Ngakoue is a good football players.
However, his lack of athleticism/twitch/traits was masked and his numbers inflated by playing on a great defense (Campbell, Dareus, Bouye, Ramsey, etc.) in a weak division.
Too early.
“player
*lack of athleticism might have been masked and numbers might have been inflated.
Sorry.
Agreed. Ngakoue is certainly good, but his average athleticism, below average run defense, and the fact that he has always been surrounded by great talent give me pause. Plus, you know Clowney will want to be paid more than Ngakoue, so we will have a situation where 4 players are taking up a huge % of the cap. Limits any other FA moves we can make, especially at DT
On the plus side, signing those two hopefully means we are set at DE the next several years.
“However, his lack of athleticism/twitch/traits was masked and his numbers inflated by playing on a great defense”
When you decide that players can not succeed unless they display superior athleticism you need to find creative explanations why some of them do succeed.
This is a perfect example for it. Ngakoue numbers were inflated because he played alongside Campbell and Dareus on the DL?
He had 8 sacks as a rookie in 2016 when Campball was in ARI and Dareus played for the Bills….who helped inflate those numbers?
To make it absolutely clear:
In 2016 the Jaguars defense was ranked 25th in the NFL in points allowed, far from great, good or even average.
They managed 33 sacks that year.
The team leader in sacks was a 21 y.o. rookie – Ngakoue (8).
2nd in sacks was DT Malik Jackson (6.5).
3rd in sacks was another 22 y.o. rookie DE with just 4 sacks. His name was Dante Fowler.
Exactly right, EranUngar. It’s like a Venn diagram. In one circle, you have a list of great DEs. In the other you have DEs with arms longer than 33″. There is considerable overlap. So when you’re drafting college players unsure of how their play in college will translate into the pros, you draft for physical traits a lot of great pros share to increase your odds. But once a player has proven themselves, you can step away from your ideal profile because clearly the player has found a way to make what they have work for them.
+1
You are correct. The better the physical traits the more likely the player will succeed.
But then you get a 4.56 converted WR to play CB or Clemens/Bennett who took years to become impact players but did.
I’m not advocating to ignore physical traits. I’m just saying that some players can play great without those outstanding physical attributes. That’s why teams pay millions to their scouting personal and that’s also why when a team needs to get something fixed like say a DL, they may come with answers that are not physically obvious from their combine numbers.
Randy Moss
Rob, what would it cost in draft picks to trade up for the number two pick and select Young? I know that’s a pipe dream, but just wondering what it would take in draft assets.
About seven first rounders
What we are missing here is that Yannick is a terrible run defender.
Say what you want about the wisdom of it but Pete Carroll puts a priority on defending the run. So I’m not seeing a fit here and I suspect this may be Jacksonville trying to raise the bidding on their DE.
This also may be a Calais Campbell situation though. Insider hears the Seahawks and Jaguars are talking and assumes it’s for Yannick but its actually for someone else.
As Rob said at the top of the article:
” The fact the source even proposed a very specific level of compensation is interesting. It almost reads like this is someway down the road. “
Doesn’t mean a thing. Could be the insider just spitballing as to what he thinks a fair deal would be.
Trade for Yann and sign Clowney. There’s your Leo and 5 Tech. Expensive but you can make it work.
Then you find some young O line that will be a cheap foundation for that window with the first few picks in this draft.
Maybe it is Jax trying to raise the price, but its definitely not a mixup for Campbell.
We would never give that up for Campbell.
The sources proposed price could just be him guessing.
Really puts Avril’s 1.50 into perspective. Wow
Taylor is the most impressive athlete at the RB position that I can remember. Even more so than CMike but with the college production to back up the testing numbers.
I know this team has other pressing needs, but damn if Taylor doesn’t beckon.
I think there are few other considerations in play with this proposed trade.
1. Yannick is the best/youngest and most consistent pass rusher available right now.
2. We may very well have a number we are willing to pay Clowney. He may get more somewhere else.
3. This is not the draft for pass rushers.
4. Clowney has only had 6 or more sacks 2 years of his career so far. Pete wants sacks.
5. I believe Clowney has only played a full 16 game season 1 time in his career.
Let’s say Pete and John have determined to pay Clowney no more than 20 million per year. Considering the pass rushing dearth this year and teams who can pay him and probably will pay him more than 20 million can you blame us for preparing for the worst?
Everybody wants Clowney. We simply can’t bank on him coming back with no backup plan.
I just don’t agree with this analysis.
If SEA are willing to pay Clowney at least $20m apy (and we pretty much know they are) they won’t let him walk over another $2-3m per year. There isn’t another DE in the League who has the same impact on games as Clowney. Certainly not one available in FA. And every single DE/EDGE FA worth signing will cost SEA about $20m apy.
So the alternatives for SEA are either sign Clowney for $22-23m apy and get THE guy you know and want, or spend about $20m apy and get “someone else”.
You don’t address the biggest need on your team by letting the ONE good player at that need walk, especially when his replacement would cost about as much and be nowhere near as effective.
I maintain SEA will sign him to a 4-5 year deal worth between $88-115m with 40%-50% guaranteed.
I’m of this mind as well CHawk.
I’d wager the Hawks have a negotiating position they can take advantage of – they have room to pay a little bit more APY than the general fandom are comfortable with, and in exchange they structure it favorably. Lower cap hit in 2020 so they can make some more moves and worry about the heavier hits later as the new CBA expands cap room.
I want to address the issue of testing numbers. The reason they have them is before they believe that players who test at a certain threshold will be more likely to be successful than those who don’t. That doesn’t account for football savvy, technique, and game speed/instincts. Yannick is probably tier 1A pass rusher when compared to maybe a truly elite player, but he’s so good at getting to the QB and stripping the ball. Some guys can run around a cone but can’t bend and dip around a professional tackle. We have 4 years of evidence that he CAN and DOES rush the passer. Don’t get too hung up on what he did at the combine 4 years ago.
I agree 100%
Testing numbers are not the be all and end all.
But if you aren’t an elite level athlete, you’re always doing something to compensate for that fact. Be it preparation, technique, effort or whatever. It’s very possible once you receive a fat new contract that sets you up for life that some of those compensatory factors begin to feel like they’re more effort than it’s worth.
Yeah, but that’s a danger for elite athletes as well. The NFL is littered with players who lost their fire once they got the fat deal. You can play, or you can’t. You have the character to keep on driving even after achieving your goals, or you don’t. Your Combine numbers don’t necessarily factor in at that point.
Combine numbers and interviews are what you hang your hat on when don’t know how college players will translate in the NFL. You place your bets on elite athletes having a better chance. But it doesn’t always work out that way, it’s just a best guess until you do know.
It is a danger for great athletes too. But the point is a weaker athlete might’ve only got there through sheer perseverance and motivation in the first place. Lose that and they have nothing.
Rob, let’s say this goes down. Trade compensation aside, we’ll assume $44M or so for Clowney and Yannick. How much do you think that leaves for the rest of the DL? Ziggy is obviously gone. I would assume that Reed would be gone at his likely cost. QJeff (coincidentally a teammate of Yannick’s at Maryland), & Woods are FA.
So: Clowney + Yannick ($44m), Collier ($2.4M), Green (~$1M), Naz (~$1M), Poona ($660k), Christmas ($542k)
Total: Just about $50M
So we need to retain or replace Reed, QJeff & Woods (Yannick replaces Ziggy).
How much cap do you dedicate to the DL at this point? Could Dontari Poe be a Reed replacement at half the cost? Would we still be talking about Raekwon after sinking most of FA assets & some draft capital into the DL already?
Maybe this is just a contingency plan for potentially losing Clowney, but it is fun to think about Clowney and Yannick bookending our DL for the next 3-4 years.
I think the value of the DL is more than just the front 4 though. A stout DL helps out every level of the Defense. Keeps OL off the LB who can flow and make plays on the ball or blitz as needed. Helps the Secondary by creating pressure on the QB to make quicker reads with more potential to be the wrong one.
Yeah $50m is a big price tag, but you are really adding to every layer if you buff the DL. That number looks way better when you spread it across 11 instead of 4…if that makes sense.
No doubt about that. It all starts or fails up front. Not being able to generate any havoc with a 4-man rush really exposed us last year.
I guess I’m wondering what the next domino to fall would be. Adding Yannick would be a step in the right direction, but is it enough? That move alone is probably not enough for PCJS to say, “All set, our DL issues have been addressed.” If it isn’t, I’m wondering what level of FA or draft capital needs to get us to that point, and can we afford it.
Does it make more sense to cut Britt and draft a Ruiz/Cushenberry to save $8M, which can go to DL help? Or does it make more sense to restructure Britt and draft Raekwon (or some other DL) to get our DL help on a rookie deal?
Again though, and I feel like I’ve repeated this far too often, just because a player signs for $20m doesn’t mean they take up $20m of 2020 cap space. So it’s not $40m for those two players. It could be as little as $15m for them this year. And in two years time others will potentially move on to create the cap room that means you can carry expensive pass rushers. You can structure these deals to make anything possible.
That’s very true. You even mentioned it in the article. KJ and Britt are off the books next year (if nothing changes), which frees up $21M as well.
Thanks for keeping the content and discussion rolling. I haven’t been this excited for an off-season in awhile!
I would say on average the players first year cap hit on a large contract is about 60% of what is APY is. For example if a player signs a 5 year $100 million deal his APY is $20 million. If you multiply that x .60 it comes out to $12 million for his first year cap hit. Everyone isnt the same but this is just an average.
There is one key piece left out of Pauline’s report and a couple other important pieces.
The key piece is Yannick has to agree to a long-term deal with Seattle. The Seahawks can’t make the same mistake the Rams did when they acquired Jalen Ramsey and give up significant draft assets and cash for a player who is only committed to one year. That gives the player too much leverage when negotiating. A 2020 2nd and a trade back from 27 to 42 is too expensive for a one-year rental.
Which leads to a couple other important pieces. 1. Will Yannick sign his tender? Maybe he would prefer to do what Clowney did and head into 2021 as a totally unrestricted free agent with a potentially far greater CAP in the new CBA?
2. How does applying the franchise tag affect the finances? Remember how Houston had to eat some of Clowney’s 2019 salary because they applied the tag? Could this potentially reduce Yannick’s 2020 cap hit for Seattle?
Same thing with Houston trading for Laremy Tunsil. His agent got cartoon dollar signs in his eyes when they didn’t condition an extension as part of the trade.
I have to believe the Hawks would make any trade for Nagkoue only official if he signs an extension that works for the Hawks.
Always thought a deal of this import, you hammer out the compensation, then the team gives the trading team a 48 hour window or so to work out a contract extension. And if they can’t, the trade is off.
I see it the same way, cha. The lack of any player perspective in the Pauline report has me speculating the source is in the Jacksonville front office and they are sending out a message to other teams, “Here is the current highest bid. Going once…”
With Clowney, we had Duane Brown recruiting him. Now, with all the reports about Russell recruiting and players wanting to play with Russell and/or being impressed with Seattle’s locker-room culture, I am curious to hear what Yannick wants. If he’s willing to go anywhere that will pay him, and other bidders emerge, then this could play out for a while.
Quinton Jefferson was his teammate at Maryland and in the same draft class. If Yannick wants to know about Seattle, that would be his man on the ground.
Of course, QJeff is a FA himself, so he’s not likely recruiting him at this point.
Yannick has expressed interest in joining the NY Giants in the past and the Giants are said to have “significant interest” in Yannick. So, unless an extension is part of the deal, there is a real likelihood that Yannick turns into a 1-year rental for whatever team trades for him. A 2020 2nd and a trade back from 27 to 42 is too high a price to pay for a 1-year rental in my opinion.
But they wouldn’t pay that without an extension in place.
I agree.
I’m not sure if Jacksonville can allow Seattle to start talking to Yannick’s agent about an extension now or even if the tampering rules still exist since they seem to be very publicly violated every year at this time.
Well first he’d need to be tagged. Then they’ve need to confirm a deal. Then they’d have permission.
And therein lies the rub. Ngakoue could do a “Giants or bust” stance and hammer his trade value down to ‘Clowney for a 3rd’ type levels.
Agree with your assessment on value of a rental. I’d trade the Hawks 2021 3rd for him on a one year rental. No more. If the Hawks manage to play their cards right, Ifedi brings a 3rd round comp pick, and all they gave up for Ngakoue would be the 2020 cap hit and – depending on how you view it – about 15 spots in the 3rd round.
I haven’t read the new CBA myself but I remember reading a piece not long ago that the new CBA would limitor prevent a player’s ability to do what Clowney did last year.
I’ll see what I can find out about whether there is anything in the new CBA that would encourage Yannick or Seattle or Jacksonville to move on this deal before the new CBA goes into effect.
I think it had to do with fines for missing mandatory camps and stuff like that. Before it was at the discretion of the team to collect the fines and now it will definitely be collected. Florio did an article on it a few days ago.
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/02/27/new-cba-will-make-it-harder-to-hold-out/
Here are some 10 yard splits from good pass rushers:
Y. Ngakoue – 1.64
N. Bosa – 1.62
C. Jordan – 1.64
K. Mack – 1.64
M. Garrett – 1.64
D. Lawrence – 1.68
J. Bosa – 1.68
V. Miller – 1.57
J. Clowney – 1.59
R. Kerrigan – 1.72
M. Ingram – 1.62
C. Jones – 1.66
TJ. Watt – 1.59
E. Griffin – 1.63
Maybe this will put some people at ease about the 10 yard split.
Now list their weights
Here are a few. I really don’t want to go through this again. lol.
Von miller – 246lbs
Khalil Mack – 251lbs
T.J. Watt – 252lbs
Y. Ngakoue – 252lbs
D. Lawrence – 251lbs
C. Jones – 266lbs
R. Kerrigan – 267lbs
Jones is not 266
Probably chandler, not chris
Yes indeed. Chandler.
Ah
Double take: Great to see that Ryan Leaf has turned it around, appearing on ESPN this morning. Great redemption story.
(And he can’t be worse than Dan ‘Angryman’ Orlovsky.)
Dan shouts when a talk would suffice
So defensive he probably shouts at his reflection. Ever seen him + Josina Anderson, together? Train wreck. I think ESPN has banned them from appearing on the same show.
Josina just got off the phone with Von Miller and he agrees (send tweet)
LOL. All about the connects.
It sounds like this is strictly an alternative, if they can’t re-sign Clowney. If they can’t re-sign Clowney they will still need 2 top rushers.
Maybe expand trade to Yannick & Campbell.
I would prefer Clowney and Campbell though.
Improves pass rush & run defense.
There’s nothing to indicate whether it’s an alternative or an addition. All the report indicates is they’re interested.
Yannick wants to be NY Giant so he says. He even posted himself in a Giants uniform awhile ago. Doesn’t mean the Giants want him but I guess his first choice is the Giants.
ESPN’s Jordan Raanan is also reporting that Yannick wants to be a Giant and there is significant mutual interest.
Maybe somebody can clear this up. The article says the Jags have the 49th pick but in the mock drafts I’ve looked at they have the 42nd pick. Am I missing something?
It’s my mistake
Oh good. the 42nd pick makes me feel better if we do this trade.
If in advent that there is a a negotiation with both Clowney and Ngakoue, it would be interesting to be a fly on the wall when explanations for reasons on a preferred range from managements point of view.
This is an interesting article that might be utilized: https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-buyer-beware-2020-nfl-free-agent-edge-rushers
Rob,
What is Yannick’s pash rush win percentage and PFF grades?
I don’t know those numbers
It was written last year, but this article might be helpful:
https://www.pff.com/news/pro-yannick-ngakoue-is-a-premier-pass-rushing-talent-deserves-a-multi-year-extension
I’m a bit ambivalent about trading for Ngakoue. Not because of him as a player — he’s a better than average pass rushing DE, albeit not so good against the run — but because of the speculated compensation. I’d be ok with the trade if it’s for either a R2 pick OR a swap of 27 and 42, but not both. The only way I’d be ok with both a R2 and a swap of 27 for 42 is if Campbell is part of the compensation. Then I’d be fairly ecstatic about it.
Clowney, Campbell, Ford & Yannick… with Collier, Davis, Mone & Green in the batter’s box? Problem solved. We probably will cut/restructure Wright/Britt.
Add RB(CEH), WR(Aiyuk), OL(Adeniji) and CB project in the draft… wow!
Sounds good. Though I am blanking on the Davis the Hawks have (??)
Raekwon Davis could be drafted by us. A fan favorite on the blog
Think he means draft Raekwon.
Confirmed, draft Raekwon!
How soon could a trade happen?
Trades can be agreed to by teams at any time even though they don’t technically become official until the start of the new League year which is March 18 at 4 PM.
Since 2017, when the NFL began allowing teams to trade comp picks, the picks have been revealed exactly 62 days before the draft each year which would been last Friday, February 22. But, they weren’t revealed and the NFL gave no reason why.
Today, the NFL released the new CBA which includes the comp pick calculation formula which has been a League secret. If, the new CBA is approved, the new formula would apparently apply to 2020 comp picks. Overthecap is working on an analysis of how the new CBA would affect 2020 comp picks. Seattle was originally projected to receive a 3rd, 4th, 6th and maybe a 7th.
I’ve been very curious as to why the comps haven’t been announced yet.
We know the provision that teams can use both the franchise and transition tags if there is no CBA in place for 2021. But I wonder if there is some provision not unlike that for comp picks. Some window that says the 2020 comp picks formula can be adjusted pending a 2021 CBA.
I’m guessing there is, simply due to the fact that the CBA doesn’t kick in until 2021, so the 2019 FA activity / 2020 comp picks should largely be unaffected.
But it would appear that the NFLPA has felt the comp pick formula restrains teams from spending more in FA, so perhaps some override language has been negotiated in.
Tweet’s from overthecap.com’s Nick Korte
Nick Korte
@nickkorte
Buf if so, it does beg the question of why the 2020 compensatory picks have not been released yet, if it’s not dependent on the proposed CBA.
The boring but likely answer is that the proposed CBA is simply taking up all the time of the NFL Management Council.
https://twitter.com/nickkorte/status/1235629113777381376
https://twitter.com/nickkorte/status/1235656873174421504
https://twitter.com/nickkorte/status/1235656874101370880
Thanks for that info, pretty interesting. Wonder if the new formula stands to benefit the Hawks in 2020 or hurt them?
Interesting that after Isaiah Wilson’s combine where he scored 2nd best in weighted TEF, that PFF listed him as a loser leaving the combine.
That’s because people don’t know what they’re talking about.
PFF’s draft guy, Mike Renner, also mocked AJ Terrell to the Seahawks in R1 because they like long armed cornerbacks — and he added they won’t draft a corner with short arms.
Terrell has 31 inch arms.
Good point, Rob! PFF has some important stats and scoring, but mistakenly look at them as the whole picture.
Mcshay moved Epenesa up 9 spots in his mock after the combine. Another huh?! moment.
Rob — Matthew Berry had rumor that NYG would be looking to trade Evan Engram, as they believe he can’t stay healthy. What would you consider a fair price for him? One of the second rounders? Any interest in that idea?
R2
I like Engram but I’m not making any trades like that until this pass rush is sorted.
I wouldn’t be in favor of that. If true, the Giants are only shopping him because he can’t stay on the field. Why would the Hawks want that same problem? He has talent, but don’t think they are interested in dropping any draft capital on another TE.
West. Wonder if the trade rumor for Ngakoue is more of a backup if they lose out on Clowney or if they are looking to pair the two?
A new perspective that may open an avenue for Gordon returning?: https://thecomeback.com/nfl/new-nfl-cba-would-remove-suspensions-for-positive-substance-abuse-drug-tests.html
I’d forget about Josh Gordon for now
Here’s what we need to remember when we’re asking about paying multiple high end rushers big contracts.
The NFL is redoing their broadcast deals, adding more lucrative streaming deals, adding gambling revenue, and redoing the CBA so a larger split goes to the players. The cap is going to absolutely explode. Locking down top tier pass rushers now for $20-23m apy will look like a screaming deal in a couple years, just like Russ at $35m will seem like a bargain when Mahomes gets paid.
And apparently ESPN is trying to trade for Al Michaels. LOL
“We’ll give you Stephen A Smith, Josina Anderson and Booger. Ok, we’ll throw in the Boogermobile too if that’ll seal the deal.”
This is potentially exciting, but also somewhat alarming to me…
Ngakoue is definitely worth the trade compensation, but is he worth a top-shelf contract? In the realm of a Clowney? He turned down $19 per already (albeit from a dumpster-fire organization). Does he profile to continue to improve his production, or are we paying for past production foolishly?
To me, measurables matter when you’re talking about a top-of-the-market contract extension. Is he a terror off the edge, or just savvy?
Depends on how you judge top-shelf I suppose.
Mack and Donald are the top defensive players and signed their deals in fall 2018. Lawrence and Clark signed theirs last year.
Would you consider it top shelf if Ngakoue signs a deal in the range of those 4? With the cap inflation between 2018-19-20 and the 2021 CBA set to likely expand the cap by another wide margin in 2021, it wouldn’t surprise me if Ngakoue and Clowney are right there with those guys.
But by 2021-22 their deals could be considered relative bargains when guys like the Bosa’s and Josh Allen’s of the world start talking extensions.
I’d argue the Hawks scored a coup by locking up RW as long as they did into the new CBA. Sure they made him hte highest paid player in the NFL but his extension won’t start until next year and just wait until you see what Mahomes, Watson and Dak get.
I think he turned down the $19 million apy because the guarantees were so low.
A highly productive & perhaps more of a “developmental” type mid-round pick with EDGE rusher #’s that are pretty darn similar to both Clemons and Ngakoue. A potential Seahawks pick in Round 3 or 4? Why not? If he develops as an EDGE, that’s a potential 20+ million Edge guy for cheap $.
EDGE-Alex Highsmith, Charlotte, 6-31/248, 33-1/8″-arms, 9-1/8″-hand, 4.72/40, 1.68-10yd split,
33″-Vert, 10′-5″-Broad, 7.32-3-cone, 4.31-20-yd shuttle. 120.5-sparq. with a 21.7% pass rush win percentage (per Rob).
2019:13-games 75-Tkls, 43-Solo, 21.5-TFL (#2 in FBS),14.0-Sacks (#3 in FBS), 3-PBU, 8-QBH, 1-FF
Career Production: 36-games, 185-Tkls, 115-Solo, 46-TFL, 20-0-Sacks, 5-PBU, 24-QBH, 3-FF.
I would guess we have around 35M in FA for DE and DT. Trying to figure out which numbers we can assume for some FA? Where am I too low/high?
DE:
Clowney: First Year 9, 20+ APY, 4 years
Griffen: 10-11 APY, 2-3 years
Quinn: 12 APY, 3 years
Beasley: 7-8 APY, 3 years
Fowler: 15-17 APY, 4 years
Clayborn: 3-4 APY, 2 years
DT:
Reed: 8-10 APY, 3-4 years
Shelton: 4-5 APY, 2-3 years
Maliek Collins: 6-8 APY, 3 years
Quinton Jefferson: 6-7 APY, 2-3 years
Tyeler Davison: 3-4 APY, 2-3 years
Just my 2 cents, but Fowler will make more (around 20m), Clowney’s first year will be more (unless you’re willing to go for like 30-33m for his last year, or go like: 9/9, 22/18, 24/12, 25/9. If you want less guarantees later and not make such a big year1-2 jump I think around 13-15m is more reasonable for year1)
I think the rest are reasonable…but these are just my guesses
2020 PFF Draft Guide is out. Hopefully it can give us some good advanced stats.
https://twitter.com/PFF/status/1235671934722920448
So y’all can tell me if I’m way off on this, but the thought crossed my mind…
What if we extend Clowney and just bring in Nagkoue as a one-year rental on the tag? We send a R3 pick over for him like we did for Clowney (or a R2+R4 if they are willing to package in Campbell), he plays on the tag this year, makes a SB run with us, and cashes in next year after the new CBA kicks into effect. We win a SB and then get a R3 comp for him walking in FA (or he likes it here so much that we find a way to make an extension work)
Sure, he would have to be willing to play on the tag this year with the usual injury risk that entails, but that might be the path to the highest earnings for him as well. Better at least than playing/holding out on the tag in JAX.
My name is cha, and I approve this message.
(I had a similar thought a few comments up)
Downside is you’re eating $19m of cap money on one player in 2020. JS gonna have to wizard his way around the rest of the roster. Which definitely isn’t out of the realm of possiblity.
So if we got the Jag’s to agree to that deal, Nagkoue + Campbell for a Rd2 + a Rd4, then Nagkoue plays under the tag @ 19 mil for this season. We would have to restructure Campbell to a two year deal I would think, with a lower APY but guaranteed money. Still enough left to sign Clowney and not kill our picks this year. Maybe even some left to add one more piece in FA…
Yup. You could look at keeping Reed or Fant if their market ends up cold.
Then you could look to trade down and recoup a R3 pick, then still follow the draft plan:
R2 (early)- RT Isaiah Wilson/Prince Tega/etc.
R2 (late)- DT Raekwon Davis
R3 (early, from trade down in R1)- LB Willie Gay Jr.
R3 (mid, trade up w/R5)- TE Hunter Bryant/WR Bryan Edwards/Devin Duvernay
R4- RB Cam Akers
R6- CB Michael Ojemudia
R7- ST ace/OG project
Except for R6 and R7, that’s my exact mock draft. I have them moving up for R. Davis.
Yes!!
R2 (early)- RT Isaiah Wilson/Prince Tega/etc.
R2 (late)- DT Raekwon Davis
R3 (early, from trade down in R1)- CEH
R3 (mid, trade up w/R5)- WR Ayiuk/Edwards/Duvernay
R4- LB Willie Gay Jr. (if he slips)
R6- CB Michael Ojemudia
R7- OG Akeem Adeniji
This would be awesome for the Hawks.
Ngakoue 19m
Clowney 3 years 23m APY, 40m GTD – 13/13m, 28/20m, 28/7m
Campbell (after extension + 2 years) 3 year 15m APY, 25m GTD – 8/8m, 17/12m, 20/5m
1st year 40m for these 3 guys which is totally doable. Second year Clowney-Campbell cost 45m, third year 48m which is a bit high to me for 2 guys but A, we can extend one of them to lower the CAP hit or cut Cambell if he gets old and only lose 5m dead money.
If next year’s draft is better for edge rushers we could change Ngkaoue for a rookie so the CAP wouldn’t suffer that much.
After the draft lines would look like:
Clowney – Campbell – Davis – Ngakoue
Brown – Jones – Britt/Hunt – Fluker – Wilson/Prince/other rookie
We would get depth at every position (WR, LB, RB, CB)
That front4 would be ridiculously good. If we can cut-re-sign Britt and lower KJ’s CAP and don’t wanna re-sign Ifedi/Fant we could maybe even out a bit more the contracts also (make the hit 50m first year for the 3 players)
Not sure though that R2 and R4 would do the trick for Campbell+Ngakoue.
But I’d willing to give up next year R3 also
Works for Seattle, except for the $19m cap hit. If the Jags are rebuilding, I doubt they settle for a 3rd. Ngakoue will want to cash in at his current value in a market lacking pass rushers.
Jags and Ngakoue should find a trade partner that meets their ask. In the end, I think some team will trade a 1st or equivalent to sign Ngakoue to a 5/100 contract.
I think we could make it work if we structure Clowney’s deal with a low 1st-year cap hit.
Houston settled for a R3 (and two players who might have been cut anyways) for Clowney.
He’s still gonna make a fully-guaranteed $19m on the tag this year. And cashing in next year might be a lot richer with the new CBA. Pass rushers will always be sought after.
That’s exactly what they are doing with these kind of reports being floated. I don’t think they will get a R1 though. A R2 sounds realistic, though. (in a year where we have two of them…).
Maybe. I don’t have strong feeling either way.
Hawks will need cap flexibility to address their many needs esp. OL and DL.
Clowney had Houston over a barrel and was willing to play on the tag, play only for certain teams and his market may have been cold. For every Clowney, there are a number of Clarks.
Ngakoue’s value is at an all-time high in a bad market for pass rush. I would want to cash in, not risk getting hurt or have my choices be limited.
Maybe a late R1 or high R2. I really don’t know how other teams will value him.
Sure, if they would do that. But I don’t think they would. Someone is liable to offer more. At any rate, I think they have plenty of room to sign both, if that’s what they want.
Ive thought about this as well. Maybe you try and resign him and maybe you dont. If you trade for him and Clowney walks you still have him, if Clowney stay you could have a good one two. Maybe the Jaguars even pay for some of his salary the same way Houston did?
It’s official: all 32 teams have realized there will be plenty of good OT options available early in the draft…
They also don’t have a pick until the top of R3 after picking #2 overall, so this may be good value for them to fill that gap with this potential trade.
He’s better than anyone in the draft. I do it for our R1 (ideally one of our R2) in a second. Assuming he’s willing to play RT.
Top 5 BAMF OL in the league and Maybe the best LT in the game at this point.
From Huard:
https://sports.mynorthwest.com/827477/2020-nfl-draft-prospects-good-fits-seahawks/
More violent than Blair…?? I need to see this. ☠
I’ve watched a few of his games, that’s an exaggeration. He hits well and plays with fire, but I don’t think he’s a good enough athlete to make it in the NFL. Fun to watch though, he stands out every time I watched Baylor cause he’s always around the ball.
One of the most quiet FA not being talked about and that’s Jordon Phillips DT who played for Buffalo. I think he’s better than Reed what do you think he would cost to get him here, Rob?
If you see his stats it looks promising. But I think his sack numbers are overvalued. Eight of Phillips’ 9.5 sacks in 2019 came against the bottom tier offenses of the league. 10 of his 25 pressures lead to an sack, he wont get this absurd rate again. He has tweeted that he considers himself a top-three player at his position. I would guess he will get half of the top 3 DT money, maybe around 9million.
He’s not better than Reed IMO. He had a good season in buffalo but Miami fans aren’t too fond of the guy (granted, lots of guys have flourished after leaving south beach)
I’m kinda hoping we can nab Reed on a discounted deal after his down season. I think we end up signing him on a 1 year deal but a long term deal at around 10M per year might look nice after a year or two, like lockett’s deal does now.
Hard to say. And I like him. But first and foremost they need to address the EDGE — unless it’s for a Calais type.
We have Jones, Christmas, Collier, Q Jeff can be sign back. Some good backup compare to pure rusher.
England can’t get out of their own third against the USWNT through 20 minutes
Physical affair, USA showing off new jerseys on espn2
Not watching right now, have they had good chances?
Some but the off ball movement is real lethargic imo and both goalies have been very solid
Nikita Parris has been good for England. Becky, Kelly O’Hara, and Rose Lavelle have been really up for this game.
Christen Press GOLAZO to open the scoring
Curled into the upper 90 from the top of the box
And Carli Lloyd adds another in the 55th
Parris vs Crystal Dunn is a great battle
Just watched the recording. What a strike by Press.
England was really chippy. Played a young squad
US is on quite a roll. They havent given up a goal in forever. Went down to SoCal to watch the Olympic qualifiers, was pretty fun to watch in person.
Programing note: Tony P is going to be on around 0900 on 710 ESPN in Seattle Friday morning.
I wonder if the Seahawks did trade for Ngakoue if they would look at a three year deal? Yannick could then hit the market again at 27. Maybe 3 years $54 million maybe $25 guaranteed at signing and $40 in total guarantees (Dee Ford was $19 and $33).
2020 Cap Hit…$15
2021…$18
2022…$21
Doesn’t sound unreasonable for a guy with his track record of consistent production. He’s also avoided injury near as I can tell.
I expect he wants more though, somewhere in the Clark, Lawrence neighborhood. I’m not convinced that he’s actually elite though, so can’t justify that type of contract. He’s good and certainly a good addition, but not at $20m/yr.
I’m not convinced we would sign Clowney AND Ngakoue to top pass rusher contracts. If I’m forced to choose I’m taking Clowney (maybe Ngakoue is a better bet because of injury concerns but I’m not convinced with the info I’ve got). Clowney is an all around better player despite the lesser Sack production.
Could the hawks pay two 20M APY pass rushers? Yes, they could. Would they do that? Probably not IMO.
I like the idea of signing clowney then trading a R3 pick for Ngakoue as a 1 year rental, but otherwise I’d pass. Rather not pay twice (draft picks and a big contract) for a Frank-Clark-light when we had the real deal unless the trade compensation is way way less than what KC paid for frank.
My # choice is signing clowney, Reed AND E. Griffen.
Also very interest in adding Calais Campbell and Vic Beasley for the right price.
Nagkoue would be a good fallback option if FA goes sideways or if the asking price drops due to the hostile situation.
My favorite part that makes me excited about Ngakoue being a Seahawk are all the forced fumbles. Some players have a knack for it. I’ll take a forced fumble any day over a sack. Whether it pans out or not is another story.
That was a forgotten piece of Cliff Avril’s game. The strip sack. 2x as valuable as the sack but packed into one great play!
Jacob Martin going to make the final cut in Houston? I don’t know their situation, but would love bring him back!!
I dont think hes going to be available even if Houston added another 1 or 2 pass rushers I think Mingo would go before Martin.
Man, if the Raiders draft Ruggs and Henderson/Diggs and sign Byron Jones… watch out for them. Quietly a very complete team. Just a WR and a CB away, maybe a LB too. I hope they can make a leap this year and compete in the AFC west, should be a tough division.
If they can surround Carr with the right pieces, I could see a Jimmy Garoppollo situation where hes just good enough to not lose games. Wouldnt br surprised if they break 10 wins.
If we cut KJ I would hope he goes to the Raiders, he would be perfect there next to Vontaze.
The over/under on Raiders wins last year was 6. I took it as it seemed like pretty good odds. If they those players, I’d set the line at 8-9 wins.
I think Ruggs would be wasted with Carr. No use being fast if youre only getting check downs.
Git this s@$t done!!!
I’ll name my next kid Yannick… Or maybe just grab a jersey.
I’m slightly confused. Feels more like a sports writer needing something to write about, honestly…
Giants are 2-3 years away from turning the dumpster-fire around.
This sounds like (as Rob says) complete rubbish.
Remember the whole thing last year about Ciara liking NY and RW wanting to go play there?
This is the 2020 version.
You should go to their blog., and they think they can sign every top FA and got unlimited cap space to spend.
I guess the giants are a contender!
If by hook or by crook the Seahawks can pull off a …. trade, resigning and signing …
Nagkoue, Clowney and …. sign Quinn. They would be set-up real pretty for the next 2-3 years.
All 3 disrupt games. / wreck game plans. You would have bookend DEs that are young and entering their primes. Quinn could be the “old soul” on the DL, adding experience and veteran savvy to pass rush situations.
The only downside would be that this would force Seattle to go young and possibly cheap on the OL, to make up for the amount of money they would be dolling out for the next 2-3 years.
Rob do you think this rumour put out by Tony deserves any more attention than all the other stuff put out this year by teams and agents etc. ?
Yes of course. This isn’t just some random, ‘New York are interested in Clowney’ or ‘Clowney wants to reset the market’ or ‘Seattle might not pay him a billion dollars’.
This is a report that the Seahawks are very specifically interested in trading to acquire a player who we know to be available. With a specific compensation package also suggested. From a source who isn’t an agent or player hound but a proper insider who delivers actual news and is consistently ahead of the curve.
As another option for a FA edge, anyone know what Markus Golden’s measureables were coming into the league? He had a great year last year for the Giants. I think he’d come at a reasonable price.
Very short arms. 4.90 forty. Terrible short shuttle and split. Not explosive. I liked him at Missouri but he’s not a player I see them going after.
Man, when Golden had his big year in AZ, he didnt llok 4.9 slow! He was a terror! But hes been injured seriously…I agree, a guy Seattle isnt likely to pursue.