When I published the top-50 2018 eligible prospects piece on Sunday, Georgia left tackle Isaiah Wynn was included. I haven’t done a specific piece on him because we’ve been focusing on other positions. Wynn’s performance in the Rose Bowl was so good, he warrants extra attention today.
I’m fairly confident he’s going to go in round two as an absolute worst case scenario. There’s a chance he sneaks into the first.
At around 6-2 and 300lbs he’s likely going to move inside to guard. Tackle experience at a high level in college will be useful though — and he’ll always have the ability to cover at tackle if needed.
It’s difficult to find flaws in his game.
For starters he’s a true mauler. His hand placement is really good — he delivers a strong jab to the defender and just controls his man. Wynn’s footwork and balance are really good and he rarely loses ground. You don’t see him bull-rushed into the backfield or knocked back. He’s very measured, engages and finishes.
He’s tough and will hand fight to win a battle if required. He’s adept at picking up stunts. Oklahoma were happy to feign the edge rush and have a linebacker make a late move. Wynn identified this and didn’t overcommit. He was prepared and ready and easily passed off the DE to lock onto the new rusher.
His agility and athleticism aren’t going to see him run a 4.90 at the combine and he’s not Lane Johnson. I suspect he won’t be a workout warrior and that’s what might limit his stock. Whatever limitations he might possibly have won’t matter as much when he moves inside. He barely ever loses control, position or leverage. His height and size work to his advantage in that regard. It’s difficult to get under his pads. I’ve not seen one play to date where he overextends — he doesn’t lunge and get himself into trouble. He’s never rattled.
On Nick Chubb’s first big run against Oklahoma, Wynn pulled to the outside and sealed the edge. He had to locate his blocker on the move, engage and finish. Chubb achieved a big gain as a consequence. He’s comfortable on the move and it’s a part of his game that could become even more of a factor at the next level.
This isn’t a great class for offensive tackles. It’s a better class for interior linemen. Nelson, Price and Wynn should go early and Arkansas’ Frank Ragnow (a guard or center) and Washington’s Coleman Shelton (a center) won’t be far behind.
The Seahawks appear likely to draft a running back early. If they’re able to acquire another early pick in the first or second round range — they might be willing to consider someone like Wynn too.
Thoughts on the other Georgia prospects
The Rose Bowl wasn’t just a fantastically entertaining game of football, it was loaded with NFL talent. I want to focus on the Georgia prospects.
Roquan Smith (LB)
After a quiet first half with Oklahoma’s offense rolling, Smith really stepped up his game after half time. He had two fierce, punishing tackles — stone-walling the ball carrier at the point of impact. One tackle possibly denied a touchdown, the other a first down:
Roquan Smith making a huge play. Wouldn’t mind seeing him in Silver and Black. pic.twitter.com/CjQq6D9vNi
— Evan Groat (@Egroat5) January 2, 2018
He timed a blitz perfectly up the middle with 11:05 left in the third quarter, showing great closing speed and acceleration to force Baker Mayfield’s eyes down. Smith easily skipped by the running back who stayed in to protect, moved Mayfield off the spot and sent him right into the arms of Lorenzo Carter.
Smith flew around the field in the second half. He frequently had an angle on Mayfield when he moved out of the pocket and maybe spied him a few times. He’s not the biggest (6-1, 225lbs) so his workout will be important. There’s evidence to suggest he’s going to test rather well. Look at his closing speed and finish with the tackle:
RoQuan Smith really impressing me. Check out the closing speed. pic.twitter.com/L5AjtDNxwX
— Evan Groat (@Egroat5) January 2, 2018
Lorenzo Carter (LB, Georgia)
I’ve watched a lot of Carter this season and he’s the one player I’ve really struggled to get a feel for. How good is he? For large stretches in games he doesn’t have much impact. Yet in virtually every Georgia game I watched in 2017, he would still make at least one big play.
The Rose Bowl was an interesting watch. Georgia had him lined up in coverage against Mark Andrews the tight end. Andrews is a little bit overrated as a prospect. He gets open on the more basic routes but isn’t a special athlete and he’s not much of a blocker. Oklahoma tried to run the same play to Andrews twice in this game — one throw hit the mark, Georgia learned their lesson the second time and picked off Mayfield.
Carter jolted Andrews back a few times when they matched up in the run — but as noted, Andrews isn’t much of a blocker. In coverage Andrews had the beating of Carter on a couple of occasions — but it’s a bit of a mismatch overall.
There was one play where Carter did a really good job in coverage, albeit in an unorthodox way. Oklahoma tried to use the running back on a wheel route and Carter was able to, quite subtly, get in the way and disrupt the route. He identified quickly what they were trying to do. Mayfield wanted to throw the ball to the right sideline but saw it wasn’t on, tried to scramble to the left and took a big sack.
Carter recorded a sack in the game but that was mostly down to Roquan Smith. Both players blitzed up the middle. Carter was initially held up but Smith got into the backfield to move Mayfield off the spot. Carter cleaned up.
His big play though was vitally important and possibly the most decisive in the game. In overtime Oklahoma were forced to kick a field goal to go three points ahead. Carter leapt from the line of scrimmage and at full extension got a fingertip to the ball. It was an outstanding, athletic play. For a player measuring at about 6-4 and 242lbs, it was an incredible jump:
And the celebration began with this blocked field goal by Lorenzo Carter. #GoDawgs pic.twitter.com/pE6EX3JQ8b
— Chuck Kittrell (@ChuckKittrell) January 3, 2018
He should perform well in the vertical at the combine. Sony Michel scored a touchdown to win the game moments later.
Carter’s potential is to be a Bruce Irvin type. He’s not the pass rusher Irvin was at West Virginia but he might be better suited to an orthodox linebacker role, while still acting as a rusher for passing downs.
Nick Chubb and Sony Michel (RB)
Both Chubb and Michel saved their best performances of the season for the most important game. They’ve both enjoyed a productive year but they took it to another level here. The only blip was Michel’s fumble returned for a touchdown in the second half.
I did a feature piece on Chubb in November, noting he could still go in the first round. There’s no disputing his potential and talent. Chubb had one of the all-time great workouts at the Nike SPARQ combine in 2013:
Height — 5-10
Weight — 217lbs
Forty yard dash — 4.47
Vertical — 40 inches
Short shuttle — 4.12
SPARQ — 143.91
He is basically a Christine Michael-level athlete.
Without the serious knee injury he suffered in 2015, he would’ve been a high first round pick. Based on what we saw at the Rose Bowl, he’s back to his best. Now we just need to see how he tests. How much juice, if any, has he lost? And what do the medicals say at the combine?
If everything checks out, Chubb will undoubtedly be on Seattle’s radar. He fits their physical profile perfectly (5-10, 228lbs), he’s an extremely explosive athlete and he’s as tough as they come. His running style is physical and sets the tone. He also has the ability to break off big runs.
Despite the athletic comparisons to Christine Michael, Chubb is an incredibly serious individual. He’s all business. His interviews are among the most boring you’ll hear. That just adds to the intrigue. He’s all about football.
Watch this:
Nobody can bring down @NickChubb21…he breaks tackles, stays on his feet, and takes it 50-yards to the house! @FootballUGA trails by just a TD early in the 2nd half. @espnSteveLevy with the call on @ESPNRadio. #GoDawgs pic.twitter.com/8ipQLHoBpG
— CFBonESPNRadio (@CFBonESPNRadio) January 2, 2018
I suspect this is what Pete Carroll is looking for. That doesn’t mean the Seahawks are going to be all-in on Nick Chubb. This is a fantastic running back class. We’ve already talked up the quality of Damien Harris, Ronald Jones II and Kerryon Johnson too. Any of those three — and a cluster of others — could interest the Seahawks.
Yet there’s no doubting Chubb fits their prototype and he could easily be a player they consider with their first pick.
(A quick note — Kerryon Johnson announced his decision to turn pro yesterday. Tony Pauline reports Ronald Jones II will make the same decision. The other Auburn runner, Kamryn Pettway, missed most of 2017 but also announced he’s turning pro and could be a day-three bargain).
As for Michel, he’s an interesting partner. If you could insert Chubb, Michel and Wynn into the Seahawks offense for next season, they’d probably see a decent upturn in production. Chubb and Michel are college football’s answer to Ingram and Kamara. Michel probably isn’t the same kind of athlete as Kamara — but they compliment each other in the same way.
Chubb is the more natural ‘born to be a running back’ type. Michel is quicker and more of a factor in the passing game. Yet he showed in this contest why he’s such a dynamic X-factor. Depending on Chubb’s health, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that Michel is the first off the board.
He scored a 75-yard touchdown against Oklahoma. In fairness it was a huge open running lane he exploited — but the acceleration he showed to finish was impressive.
Here’s the game winner:
WHAT A GAME! Sony Michel with the wildcat touchdown to win the #RoseBowl! #GoDawgs pic.twitter.com/3lSJHyZdWM
— Casey Baker (@CaseyBake16) January 2, 2018
He’s patient to work to the edge, find the gap and then finishes.
Michel isn’t just a player who works well in space or excels in the passing game. He can show toughness and provide some of the inside running to keep things balanced. He’s 5-10 and 220lbs so he’s not small by any stretch. He too fits Seattle’s size profile. They might be willing to consider him as a compliment to Chris Carson.
Both players could be off the board by the time round two concludes.
Javon Wims (WR, Georgia)
Wims is a player we’ve talked about a few times during the season. He really emerged as Georgia’s go-to target in the passing game. Every week he seemed to make a few big plays.
He has seven touchdowns now and 704 yards. Considering he’s working with a true-freshman quarterback, his numbers are quite impressive. Before this season he’d barely featured for Georgia. He saved his best play for his Senior year.
Wims might’ve played himself into the middle rounds, which is a shame. Originally I’d hoped he might last into day three and make a nice project. He’s 6-4 and 215lbs and could provide the kind of dynamic big outside target the Seahawks have lacked over the years.
The back-shoulder fade has been his best friend but he’s also developed into a key red-zone threat and he does well high-pointing the football. He sometimes produces a nice check down option settling over the middle and he can separate on the shorter routes. He’s at his best, however, working the red line to make big plays.
Wims is still a bit underrated and he’s helped provide the balance Georgia’s offense requires to compliment their dynamic duo at running back. Look at the video below. Wims has become enough of a threat that Georgia can use him as a decoy to exploit Sony Michel in the passing game:
Javon Wims (@Javon_Juice) is so much of a threat, he can be used as a decoy too. @JimChaneyUGA has him run a slant with Sony Michel(@Flyguy2stack) creeping to the backside. Fromm saw the hole in the defense he needed. pic.twitter.com/0qVoc7yj6i
— Dayne Young (@dayneyoung) January 2, 2018
And this is what he does in the red zone:
RT CFBonESPNRadio: Twenty-one. Unanswered. FootballUGA capitalizes on a Baker Mayfield INT…and FrommJake finds Javon Wims in the back of the endzone for the TD. #GoDawgs take a 38-31 lead. espnSteveLevy with the call on ESPNRadio. pic.twitter.com/LvExU9E9ze
— ESPN 104.5 & 1490 (@1490WSWW) January 2, 2018
There’s no replay in the clip above but it was a difficult catch under pressure.
Some people might not like the fact it’s two SEC teams in the National Championship game this week. For me, it’s the perfect final for Seahawks fans. Four interesting running backs (Damien Harris, Bo Scarborough, Nick Chubb and Sony Michel) a ton of defensive talent on both rosters and some good O-liners and receivers too. It’s a dream for Seahawks fans ready and willing to look ahead to the draft.
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Thanks for this Rob, was hoping to get some level-headed analysis from that game!
Even my eye was drooling at the talent. What a game.
Incredible wasn’t it? Not just entertaining but also full of potential future Seahawks too.
Absolutely.
I have a feeling the Hawks are going to be all over Chubb or Harris after a trade down. End of R1/top of R2 seems to be the sweet spot for RBs, which would allow for it perfectly.
Terrific football game. I was watching it especially for the Georgia backs, and wasn’t expecting myself to have much of a rooting interest beyond that, but really found myself rooting for the OT. Michel’s game winning run was a thing of beauty.
I would be pretty stoked if Seattle drafted either Georgia back.
Trying to decide whether Seattle should trade down from #18 (as expected) or stand pat for a truly exceptional talent. Picking up an extra second would involve dropping out of the 1st round entirely, which is an awful lot of prospects to lose compared to #18, where we haven’t drafted for years.
It probably comes down to what they do in terms of acquiring picks pre-draft. If Earl, Sherman etc do move on and they receive picks in the R1-3 range, then there’s less pressure to move down from #18. If they don’t acquire extra picks, it’s hard to imagine Seattle picking at #18 and then not again until the middle of round four.
I agree, and as much as I want a game-breaking talent that they have not had a shot at in 6 years, they NEED picks before the 4th rd
And for that reason there are certain to be even more people clamoring for the trade of Earl and Sherman than before.
True but losing those guys just creates more enormous holes to fill.
This is such a tricky dynamic off season…there are multiple ways this can break. Trade market/value will probably play a huge role
Bradley McDougald, Shaquill Griffin, and Byron Maxwell have been quite solid this year for us. They’ve made Earl and Sherman ALMOST expendable. There are greater holes.
I agree 100%, trade Earl and / or Sherman for high picks.
Shead is also coming back next year healthy, and he can take someone’s spot.
Brandon great to read more of you here! one of the funniest things football wise I ever saw was on your blog written by kip where he had a graph showing seattle losing under Mora and I think Andrew luck’s head that said “see you soon!”
I don’t know about a trade into the second but I have to believe a trade down for a third is a thing.
Free Agency could tell us something as well. Seems like we need 3 things. A running back, a stud front seven defensive player and a good mauling guard. If we can get that guard in free agency (a guy like Andrew Norwell maybe) that would just leave the other two spots for the draft (we want those positions young anyways)
Looks like, with pick 18, Seattle could find a trade partner within picks 30 and 33 that would net them a R1 and R2 pick and some late round change.
Pick 18 is worth 900 in draft value. Picks 30 and 62 = 904.
The drop from #18 to #30 is enormous in terms of talent.
excellent piece sir! I live how you frame the national championship game. with no dog in the fight so to speak in stoked for both teams from a scouting stand point. Alabama’s front seven vs. Georgia’s run game. Alabama’s run game vs if not the same from 7 a great lb corps.
should be amazing. nailed it with Chubb. game DAY did a future on him and you could tell they struggled to put together stuff on him. Instead talking about how all the Chubb’s basically live in the same town. shame really because he’s an interesting athlete that seems to take to any pursuit he’s tried.
Sorry to change the subject for a moment, but wow this dude has some seriously amazing hands!
Tyler Conklin || “Conscience” || Central Michigan Highlights ||
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_Pk7mMm8Iw
6-4, 240. He’s not much of an inline blocker, but is quite good blocking in space. I know we are kind of down on the TE class, but there might be some good ones for us to consider on day 3. Especially move TEs if Jimmy leaves. Vannett can be the Y, and this guy (or my favorite, Jaylen Samuels) can be the move.
wasn’t Jack Conklin from Michigan? Wonder if they’re related
Rob what are your thoughts on Crowell?
Not really interested in him.
I really like this article, I watched one game of his(Wynn) and really wasn’t his best Performance so I kinda didn’t think much of him but after the rose bowl I went back and watched more film and I do really like him. I love Chubb but my draft crush is Kerryon Johnson. He just seems like a all around RB with breakaway speed and punishing runner. As well as decent hands. I think this draft really falls in line with our draft needs. That being said we NEED at least one pick in the second day of the draft.
Great stuff Rob, what a fun game that was.
Wynn really caught my eye when i was watching some Chubb tape earlier; getting those two guys would the dream for me at this stage and something that could be pretty likely given Pete’s comments.
I hadn’t taken the time to watch any Chubb film until the other week and all the games I saw made me think he was holding back and not quiet trusting himself yet. That made me feel confident he will perform well at his workouts. This game all but certified that. His lean was back, the smooth power was on full display for a good number of his runs. I’m excited to see how he performs in the Champ game.
I still like Damien Harris over Chubb and Michel.
PFF College Football
@PFF_College
Damien Harris tallied 52 yards after contact and five missed tackles forced on carries in Alabama’s Sugar Bowl victory.
___________________
Against an NFL quality defensive front. Chubb and Michel were running untouched through massive holes against OU. That said, Chubb’s strength and balance look incredible and I wouldn’t mind him at all either. There are some great backs in this draft.
no doubt Clemson has a better front than OU but I think Chubb technically had 50 plus yards after contact and multiple missed tackles on one carry. jokes aside that’s what will be fantastic for this championship game. just a ton of great tractable players all over.
I love Nick Chubb. The thing that impresses me most is his balance. I don’t want to compare him directly to Lynch but he sort of runs with that same wide base which makes him very tough to bring down. Even when he gets stoned in the backfield he’s the type of back that still stays on his feet while the scrum forms around him trying to bring him down. Tough dude and a perfect fit for what Carroll likes. And outside of the one big injury he has another plus alot of our backs don’t … he plays every game.
Rob,
Thanks for the article. I really liked what I saw from Javon Wims as well during that game.
What do you think about drafting a WR higher than we have before to give Russell a weapon to replace Jimmy Graham in the red zone? If Graham leaves, we’re going to have to replace his 10 touchdowns, most of which were in the red zone. We’ve always been pretty bad in the red zone, and I don’t think drafting a RB is really going to be the panacea that people think it is.
I’ve really liked what I’ve seen from Equanimeous St. Brown and Auden Tate, so far.
Thoughts?
I think they have to prioritise other positions to be honest. For me they’ve gone away from what made them so physical and tough. And they need to get back to that. Plus it’s not a great draft for receivers in that first frame. There should be some options on day three.
They also red-shirted 2 receivers this year
For what it’s worth, in his last presser PC had positive things to say about both Darboh and Moore.
Rumor was Moore was promoted because he was going to be signed to another roster
Moore confirmed this himself in an interview on 710. Never said which team it was, but was talking about how his agent had called him with the news and he was wondering if they gave SEA a chance to match the offer. Said he was relieved when they did because he likes it here, or something to that effect.
I mentioned during the game how much I liked Wyms. He’s always making a key catch when they need it. I didn’t get the Darboh pick last year, but I would get this guy.
re: the lb’s, does anyone think lb is in bigger player this year than we may be discussing? it was an area to improve last year and I can confidently say the FA’s don’t really inspire. with Wagner and wright getting a bit banged up and the drop off on the field from losing either one should seattle be looking at an early lb?
I know rob has highlighted Edmunds and Evans as well as touched on smith should any be a hawks pick? someone else later? multiple picks?
Yepp. I think they need to find a way to get quicker at LB in a big way. No easy answers, but I thinkkk I’d rather have a Telvin Smith type than KJ Wright?
I love Chubb. His backstory is awesome
https://youtu.be/uKfCSrwMAo8
Cool story on his rehab. https://www.google.com/amp/s/syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/2663172-how-georgia-running-back-nick-chubb-fought-to-reconstruct-his-career.amp.html
Evans from Bama is a beast. He’s so sudden and violent, and he can really cover some ground. I’m very impressed with him. I like him better than Edmonds, in that I don’t think Edmonds’ best fit is inside. He will eventually move outside to OLB or an edge player, but that will be a transition and that may take some time.
I agree about Evans to me he is the best LB in the class ( love smith but he’s not the best at getting off blocks and that kinda scares especially when it’s a must to be a good lb in the nfl) not sure if I agree about Edmunds.
Huh? Edmunds already is OLB.
Not always. He plays a lot inside as well. You can find that on YouTube. I saw him playing some MIK in their bowl game. He it run through for a score. I like him better as a full time OLB.
Assuming they get younger and keep no FA and get rid of Thomas/Sherman/Bennett:
QB Wilson
RB open
WR Baldwin/Lockett/Darboh
TE Vannett/open
OL Brown/Pocic/Britt/open/Ifedi
DL Jordan/Reed/Jones/Clark
LB Wagner/Wright/open
CB Griffin/Hill/Thompson/Coleman
With Brown gone after 2018, Ifedi still a project, Fant unproven and young DL and DB, I would say once again RB and OT will be biggest needs with WR and TE and LB/DE needs as well. If Hawks can come away with a starting RB (Chubb) and OT with first 2 picks, that would be a big boost.
Brown doesn’t have to go after 2018 just because he’s out of contract. Plus they were/are really high on Fant.
He doesn’t have to, but at 33+ and looking for another 10+ million, don’t think it would be better to say goodbye? I know they are high on Fant, but he hasn’t really shown a lot, so can he be depended on? Brown/Britt/Ifedi (maybe RG or RT) are set, and more than likely Pocic will be other guard. So you need a starting guard or tackle.
Who knows? Brown might be great next year. Might totally justify a new deal.
The fact is they have not only a veteran pro-bowl left tackle but also a young left tackle they really like. I’m not convinced at all that tackle is a big need in 2018.
Guard is different but it’d have to be a really good one for an early pick.
They didn’t trade a 2nd and 3rd round pick for 1 1/2 years of production from Brown.
Both John Schneider and Brown himself have stated that they would like #76 to retire a Hawk. I would expect some contract extension.
I don’t think Ifedi is set at RT at all. He doesn’t seem to have the quickness to cope with speed rushers which is why he’s gotten so many penalties trying to get a jump. I think they’ll move him back inside, keep Brown and move Fant to RT. When Brown retires Fant can move to LT with starting experience in his toolkit. If Pocic can gain enough strength he could slide into the left guard slot.
After watching Pocic start, do you all think he can gain the strength needed to fill the LG spot or do we need to draft a mauler like Wynn?
Darnold just declared
https://mobile.twitter.com/RapSheet/status/948710907500261376
Expected… Make hay while the sun shines.
1 more player available for us at 18
Or for some other team to want and be willing to trade with us so they can get him.
I don’t understand the momentum for trading Earl. I get that he’s 29, and I get that his game is built on speed. Maybe everyone’s assuming that he will try to get some unfathomably-long multi-year extension and put us in cap hell in 2-3 years when his game degenerates. Maybe it’s his comment to Jerry Jones. But having Earl sit back there in center field allows the Cover-2 to work effectively. I think we’d be far worse off on D without him. The untouchables on defense to me – for 2018 – are Earl, Wags, KJ, and Frank Clark. If we need to get younger on D, I start up front with Bennett and Avril. I assume Lane and Kam are gone, and it pains me to say that about Kam. I’d rather part with Sherm than Earl if forced to pick one, although I think trade value is muted due to the recent injuries.
In an ideal world it would never be considered. I think there’s a logical reason why it hasn’t been ruled out (and Carroll chose not to do that yesterday). If they foresee trouble ahead (holdouts potentially, not being able to get a deal done) they might think it’s better to get what they can now rather than push this problem down the road a year when it’ll be harder to get more than a third or fourth round comp pick for Earl. If, for example, Dallas offered you #19, you’ve had eight fantastic seasons out of ET and it hasn’t cost you anything in terms of the draft. That would be a tempting situation if they thought getting Earl signed to a new deal would be problematic. And you can then try and use the #19 pick to find another great player.
The Seahawks also gave third contracts to Bennett and Chancellor and quite frankly, neither of those deals have worked. Not as intended. If they pay Earl $13-14m a year, or more, and his hamstring plays up again or he gets another serious injury and considers retirement or something similar. They’re in the same hole they’re in now with Bennett and Kam. I don’t know if they have concerns about Earl’s long term future. None of us do. But if we’re talking about it as a consideration, that’s another one of the reasons why they might.
They could also just sign him to a new long-term deal. That is plausible too.
It’d be horrible to lose Earl if it happens. But this defense is transitioning now. And they might be willing to mix things up. Remember, Seattle was an Eagles decision at #13 (Brandon Graham over Earl) from never having Thomas at safety. They would’ve carried on, would’ve done things slightly differently but would’ve continued without that insanely brilliant safety. They might go back to that now.
And this isn’t me hoping Earl is traded. It’s just me discussing why it might be considered.
+1
I was on the don’t sign Kam or Bennett train and on the trade Thomas train. It’s better to get rid of talent earlier than later. Could ET play 5 more Pro Bowl years, yes. Could ET play 1 season and not want to sign long term deal or pout when he gets tagged. Yes. About the only spot you could keep older talent is QB. You can always scheme better, rely on different things. Maybe not how RW plays, but you adjust. You can’t adjust for age at speed positions. Defensive players can lose it fast and I would rather get a 1st for ET or even early 2nd and 3rd.
+1
… and he wants to be a Cowboy.
I think that the only way you sign 30 year old players to a 3rd contract, is if they have an uncommon hunger for the game, and desire to win.
Can we say this about Earl?
I was very impressed this year, to see Sherman, and Chancellor on the sideline at games, after their respective injuries.
Last year, I couldn’t help but notice, that Earl high-tailed it out of Seattle, and didn’t seem engaged with how the team was doing after he was hurt.
I can’t know what’s in Earl’s heart or head, but (unlike Sherman) he doesn’t seem as interested in mentoring younger players, or being much of a team leader. He also doesn’t seem particularly motivated to stay in Seattle or be a Seahawk.
If he is, great! Sign him up long term.
If not, trade him now while his value is as high as it will ever be, going forward.
It has been a luxury having Earl playing center field for us, but if Pete’s defense is reliant upon having a transcendent FS to succeed, then we have a huge problem, regardless.
In general terms, there are typically two positions I would consider for a third contract at 30, a QB and O-line. For those two positions, thirty is just past the halfway point of their career. For anyone else, 30 is the twilight.
With the QB’s declaring. This is setting up nicely for a blue chip top 10-15 player to drop to 18. Also, it sets up nicely for a team to trade up from the backend of the 1st to pick the QB they want which can play in to Seattle’s hand.
I know that a majority of the crowd wants Earl to stay, but if you can get a 1st for Earl (looking at you Dallas and your 19 pick) you have to do it IMO so you can keep 18 and grab a blue chip while also allowing JS to trade down and recoup some day 2 picks.
I agree John, it can also help the trade back if teams want to jump up and grab a lesser QB.
Yep a QB or maybe a team wants to trade up for an impact defender or T (Okorafor?)
Rob, may I suggest checking out DeShon Elliot and Adonis Alexander. Both hard hitting, blazing speed and superb coverage. Reminds me a lot of Sherman and Chancellor in style of play. Alexander is extremely athletic with a couple high point tips in the end zone showing off his jump. A few particular plays I thought were reminiscent of the NFC championship against niners. Would love to know your thoughts
I intend to watch both. Watched one game of Deshon Elliott’s and wasn’t blown away. It’s only one game though.
Recommend watching the USC game for Elliott
With everyone doing an off-season plan, (and they are very fun to read) I thought I would put in my two cents on what one could look like. First we would do some trade/release to figure out what kind of cap space we could have then get to free agency and the draft. So lets begin.
Assuming the salary cap is set to $178 million next year we will have about $19 million in cap space so that will be our starting point. Also for arguments sake we are going to assume that Kam just retires.
Retire…Kam Chancellor, if he is a post June 1st cap release we can eat $2.5 million of his dead money this year and the remaining $5 million next year saving us $7.3 million in cap space for 2018.
Cap Space…$26.3 million
Retire…Cliff Avril, this would save us $7.5 million in cap space.
Cap Space…$33.8 million
Release…Jeremy Lane, if he is a post June 1st cap release we can eat $1.25 million of his dead money this year and the remaining $1.25 million next year saving us $6 million in cap space for 2018
Cap Space…$39.8 million
Release…Jon Ryan, we can only release two players with a post June 1 date so if we release Ryan we would have to eat all of his $1.2 million this year. This would still save us $2 million in cap space.
Cap Space…$41.8 million
Trade…Earl Thomas, trade Earl to the Colts or Jets for there second round pick as both of these teams have a ton of cap space and early second round picks. Cap savings would be $8.5 million
Cap Space…$50.3
Keep…Michael Bennett and Richard Sherman
Now its time to add/retain some players. The three biggest needs at this point would be a mauling LG, a young front seven defensive player and a quality RB. We also now have pick #18 and pick #36 or 37.
Free Agency:
Resign…Bradley McDougald for 3 years $18 million. $6 million signing bonus and $12 million guaranteed. His cap hits would be $4 million (2018 )$6 million (2019) and $8 million(2020)
Cap Space…minus $4 million is $46.3
Sign…Andrew Norwell (mauling LG) for 3 years $27 million. $6 million signing bonus with $10 million guaranteed. His cap hits would be $6 million (2018) $9 million (2019) $12 million (2020)
Cap Space…minus $6 million is $40.3
Tender…Justin Coleman with an original round tender (about $2 million)
Cap Space…minus $2 million is $38.3
Tender…Dion Jordan with an original round tender (which for him is a first rounder anyways)
Cap Space…minus $2 million is $36.3
Resign…Luke Willson at 1 year $2 million
Cap Space…minus $2 million is $34.3
The Draft:
With the 18th pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, The Seattle Seahawks select…Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech
We get our front seven players who can play the SAM , DE on passing downs, or even fill in for Bobby or KJ if they get hurt (known to Seahawks fans as the “Bruce Irvin role”
With the 37th pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, the Seattle Seahawks select…(whatever running back they want, Guice, Chubb, Harris, Michel, Joihnson, Penny)
We get our three biggest needs out of the way with Edmunds, Norwell, and the RB.
We still have $34.3 million to spend to fill out the roster (minus draft pick money which isnt a ton) We still need a back up QB, kicker, punter. We also have a lot of ERFA’s that will help fill out the roster as well.
Guys to let walk…Joeckel, P Rich, Graham, Lacy (cmon man), Rawls.
I left off Sheldon Richardson as Im really torn on which way to go on him.
2018 roster could look like this so far.
QB…Wilson
RB…Draft Pick, CJ, Carson
WR…Baldwin, Lockett, Darboh
TE…illson, Vannett
OL…Brown-Norwell-Britt-Pocic-Ifedi
Fant, Roos, Hunt, Odihambo
DLine…Bennett, Clark, Jones, Reed, McDowell, Jordan
LB…Wagner, Wright, Edmunds
CB…Sherman, Griffin, Coleman, Thorpe, Elliot, Maxwell and Shead if we resign
Safety…McDougald, Hill, Thompson
This shit got long in a hurry so hopefully your not asleep now…Go Hawks!
Interesting thoughts, thanks for sharing.
I would love the Andrew Norwell Signing even if he’s asking 9-10$ per year I think it would be great for us so we can focus other needs in the draft. I would just be sick if we traded Earl Thomas I can see the reason for trading him but it would still hurt seeing him on another team.
If a single high 2nd is the best we can net for ET, and the Hawks have $34m of cap room after those other transactions, I say keep Earl for 2018 and either extend or let him walk for the 2020 comp pick.
They could also transition tag him after next season as well if they wanted to.
I like it. Would still look to get rid of MB and RS if you could nab 2nd-4th rd picks. Even picks in 2019.
I just didnt want to get rid of all the old guys/experience at the same time. We have youth mixed in with veterans which is ideal. Sherman with Griffin and Coleman. McDougald with Delano Hill, KJ and Bobby with Tremaine and Bennett with Clark, Reed, Jones and McDowell. If you lose Bennett there really isnt a Dline leader.
Thanks for doing this, Greg.
Love the idea of getting an impactful special athlete in the front seven and also landing one of these exciting young backs. Really like the idea of further adding one more solid veteran player to the OL.
Your thoughts really match up with a lot of how I’ve been thinking about this. Going to be a very interesting off season, for sure.
Thats my favourite offseason plan Ive seen so far. Id definitely keep Sheldon with that much cap space, unless he wants silly money. Id probably like slightly better value for Earl, but if we could still get the rb we wanted (chubb) i guess it wouldn’t matter
Good post.
Like almost everything Greg.
Mcdowell really is a wild card and will definitely impact how much they would pay S. Richardson. For me he is the big question mark for me as well.
I agree, McDowell really is a wild card. If no Sheldon some of that remaining cap space could find you a bargain bin DT like McDaniel, K Williams, Rubin.
A plausible scenario hat makes a lot sense
I was trying to be as realistic as possible, trim some fat but not get rid of everyone at the same time.
I could really go for this plan, even though I will miss Earl. However we will have to see what Kam does, his contract is a killer right now. Hopefully he does put his life after football first, but it would be very hard to pass up on 12 million dollars.
I agree, $12 mill is hard to just say goodbye to.
excellent work. very thorough. I think I’m a little higher on Edmunds than many on this site. would love to see him in seattle and a top running back
Let me throw a wrinkle for conversation into Greg’s plan.
Free up the cap space as he mentioned, except you keep Earl. Now you don’t have the draft capital to get the RB. Trade your ’19 Rd1 to NE ( Bill loves future picks, and would rather have trade capital for a vet to help him in ’18 than a rookie) for their Rd1 this year (let’s assume they don’t win the SB).
Now you have two #1s this year and can potentially draft a versatile front 7 impact player on D and an impact RB in Rd1.
We are down a rd1 next year but our cap and the FA class is stronger in 19 than 18 and at least we have our rd2 and possibly a rd3 comp from Sheldon.
Keeping Earl could be an option as well, the only problem is we dont have our 2nd rounder next year either due to the Duane Brown trade. So we would have no 1st or 2nd rounder next year.
Thought we had our 2nd next year but no third?
That makes my scenario pretty unlikely
If we did want to keep Sheldon a contract could look like this. 4 years $48 million. $10 million signing bonus. The years cap hits could be:
2018 base salary/$6 million…cap hit $8.5 million
2019 base salary/$9 million…cap hit $11.5 million
2020 base salary/$10 million…cap hit $12.5 million
2021 base salary/$13 million…cap hit $15.5 million
If we wanted to keep Earl instead we could add his $8.5 million back to the cap and not resign McDougald and go with Delano Hill at SS. That would then leave us with $29.8 in cap space but only have pick #18. We then could trade back to maybe the late first early second and get a late second or early third that way and draft a defensive player and a RB. They just might not be the same quality.
That would be an interesting trade scenario. If they do keep Sheldon I would try to limit him to 8 million a year. If someone wants to pay more = let him go. He’s good but not making a huge difference every play.
Based on the words he expressed to Curtis Crabtree as the team was packing up, Sheldon wants and expects to be back in Seattle. Very interesting considering how Mike B stated that he doesn’t think he will be back and the team probably wants to go younger.
I’m kinda think Sheldon might stay a Hawk for a while.
That’s a pretty nice attempt at this man. If you’re going to have that much cap room, you may just sign Sheldon since we would have the space, and I also feel like Luke Willson is just a guy that we keep resigning and get very little from. I would be sad if all we could get for Earl was the 37th pick, and if that’s the max return for this guy, I would just keep him. If it were two seconds, maybe. If it were a second and third this year? I’m listening. He’s just so special and any new team that he goes to becomes instantly better.
Mentioned above
OL Brown/Pocic/Britt/open/Ifedi
I can easily see Ifedi go to the LG spot and Pocic (or Roos) play the rG spot. That would leave Seattle looking for a RT, instead of a LT or RG/LG….. at the RT spot, who would fit the spot…. 2nd/3rd round range?
I actually thought Roos looked pretty good when he played week #17….. so maybe they have the answer already at the Guard spots…. leaving Pocic as the 6th man who can play all the spots. This logic keeps making me think RT is the spot they draft high, if any spot on the OL.
Why not bump Ifedi inside and play Fant at RT?
Pete said that Ifedi would play at RT again…Im guessing at least to start anywatys
Excuses in advance but it just burns too much.
Remember last offseason?
“Jeff Fisher had our number. Thank god he’s gone.”
Well the new coaching staff seems to be a slight improvement.
“The 49ers will need years to rebuild.”
The new coaching seems to get it done a little faster.
And if they would have traded for Garoppolo in preseason, their a lot less talented roster would have overtaken us already I presume.
“Alex Collins gets cut, he is only about fifth in our RB depth chart.”
He ran for almost a 1000 yds behind an O-line comprised of mainly UDFAs this year.
What did all our Rbs rush for combined behind first and second rounders?
I read over at fieldgulls that almost all teams have above average QB pressure rates against us,
that that we had 0 yds rushing in the last 10 yds of the red zone over the season.
Opposite coaches get to study the same Hawks game tapes for years and years.
What should be the conclusion to all of these facts?
You can’t change all the players (I actually believe our roster is still a very talented one).
You have to look at the coaches and their coaching. There is no other way.
I know that as long as there are no indications of possible change coming from the front office Rob doesn’t. And probably he’s right. Their wont be changes made, so let’s talk about the draft candidates.
Anyway, it just makes me mad … so I had to let of some steam.
I know the feeling, but I promised Rob to only talk about the article at hand.
Its hard to wait for a change that never happens!!!!
Right. I guess I have to take a cold shower one in a while then.
I think there will be changes to the coaching staff. I suspect we’ll see that this week. But I also didn’t think this place would be much fun if it was just an endless stream of Bevell/Cable talk.
Let’s hope so.
Being from Europe we know that coaching changes at least in soccer often do work wonders, even when you want to attribute the failure to the players. Look at what happende to Bayern Munich after firing Ancelotti, a world class coach at the wrong place at the wrong time. it seems.
I am really convinced it would help a lot more than adding another high Oline draft pick.
And I won’t talk about coaches anymore, unless it’s not the topic. Promised.
I have no issue with people talking about coaches. Just wanted to keep away from stuff like ‘Bevell and Cable suck’ and not have the topics dominate the comments section.
Thank you for that.
I really like this article Rob I learn so much just reading what you write. I have a question and a comment if you read this. Thanks for what you do, appreciate you.
Question, why has Collins done so good at Baltimore? You keep saying a good running back is what we need behind this line, but Collins did not do anything behind our line, but when he went to Baltimore he did pretty good. Is he just not a ZBS running back, or did the coaches just not have faith in him? I mean what is the deal?
Thoughts, I understand what you are saying about Earl and agree that if we can get the 19th pick in the draft for him then you have to do it. However if you get that pick there is no guarantee the player is going to perform anywhere close to the same level as he has. Though I guess that’s why we have to trust in PC/JS. So for a first round I guess you can do it, but it will leave a hole, Thompson will not be nowhere near as good as Thomas. He wont even be close in any way.
Buffalo looks like a really good trade partner to move down with, they have two picks in the first and will probably want to pick a QB. Could we get a second round pick from the Bills to move to their second pick in the first, whichever one is later, and a second form them? Or is that too much value for moving back roughly 6 spots?
Nice thoughts. Maybe include Lane or Bennett.
Danny Kelly had a good breakdown of Collins on The Ringer a month or so back, dig that up
Thanks GerryG, I will.
While I’m obviously glad Danny is now getting paid actual money at The Ringer instead of the SB Nation sweatshops, I miss his Field Gulls work. Honestly hardly go there any more. He’s one of the top handful of guys who are able to break down tape in an accessible way, and explain conceptual football at an approachable level.
Well, in fairness to Collins, he didn’t get much of a shot. People like Carson outperformed him in pre-season and they didn’t want to cut Rawls or Prosise. So he was the odd man out. I understand why he wasn’t retained but I also think it’s possible he would’ve ran quite well given a proper go in the line-up.
I do think maybe Seattle needs to tweak it’s running scheme though.
He also fumbled once or twice in preseason
They need to go more power than zone.
It’ll be Pete who needs to make that concession.
Your comments on Collins are spot on, and proof that our issue isn’t the running backs, well a little of it is, the majority of the problem is the O-line. They can’t run block, they can’t pass protect. So what can they do? The good news is, Britt is a very good center. Brown is a good LT. Pocic shows a lot of promise, especially is he gets physically stronger over the off season. And Fant may be what they were hoping he would be… maybe. If he is, then maybe we have one hole to fill. Could Ifedi be that guy? I doubt it. Watching him play is like watching an in-the-flesh example of ADD. He can’t remember the snap count. He can’t seem to figure out what he’s supposed to do on a stunt. He can’t remember the play call – the line is all pulling left, he goes to the right. Whoops. He doesn’t seem to have the aptitude or desire to play.
As for Earl, the key word in your statement was “was.” Yes he’s been awesome. But clearly he wants to be a Cowboy. Do I expect him to play at a high level next year? Yup. But at some point soon, his performance is going to wane, and when it does, what can we get for him then? The time to trade him is now, while he still has value and we can get something for him.
The Seahawks need to find a big-stout 1-tec again (i.e. Brandon Mebane.)
1-tec has been a missing piece of the base defense since Mebane left and the run defense hasn’t looked the same since. I know people like Jordan Reed put he’s a 3-tec as is Naz IMO. I’m not sure what the draft looks like in terms of those skill-sets but it’s something Seattle needs to target… along with another pass rusher.
Justin Ellis UFA from Oakland 6’2 330 run stuffer no pass rush 27 years old don’t think would cost a lot.
I like Justin Ellis. He was in Ken Norton’s defense in Oakland so we know he has some familiarity with the system too. That’s a BIG man lol.
I agree Mebane really was a huge part of that run D and was never really replaced. Hard to find guys like that.
Rubin seemed to do good for a couple years. They did lead the league in YPC with Rubin in 2016.
Good point. I think they soured on him when he showed up out of shape.
Seahawks sign Kicker Jason Meyers…played for Jacksonville for 3 years.
yuck. went from a 72% kicker to a 73% kicker. has to be a hedge and one of those sign a player/draft a player moves seattle is fond of.
Cincy’s OLine coach Paul Alexander was let go. Don’t think he runs the ZBS but he’s had some real good lines during the past decade. The last couple years his line has struggled though.
Could be a guy to look at if his style matches up if/when TC is gone.
Here’s a cool article with Alexander from a few years back
http://www.americanfootballmonthly.com/Subaccess/articles.php?article_id=4951
Very interesting
Too cable might be joining Gruden in Oakland
Makes sense. Every time Gruden called a Seahawk game he GUSHED over Cable. I honestly don’t see Cabel leaving Seattle for the same position in Oakland.
I think he’d make him an OC and assistant HC.
Richard in interviewing in Indianapolis.
I actually want him gone more than Bevell, (but not as much as Cable). I know it’s Pete’s D, but Richard doesn’t seem to make the right moves in game and the team was abysmal on third and long this year.
Exactly. I think he’s getting the interview as a formality tho (Rooney Rule.) I don’t think they’ll hire him.
it was last year as well. Last year Seattle’s d ranked in the mid to upper 20’s in 3 and out ( towards the bottom of the league) I cant imagine it being any better this year. both years 3rd and long was a huge problem. I hope he leaves as well, but PC will keep him around.
Wynn looks like a really quality player with tackle experience. The Seahawks for sure like versatile guys. I think I would want a road grader at LG versus a pass blocker and that is what Wynn is.
I would be sick if we traded Earl. When I have kids (god willing), he will be the 1st player I talk about when I tell him or her about the Seahawks. Earl made me fall in love with being a defensive back in his early years. I used to watch his tape and try to imitate what he did in HS. Personally, he is my favorite Seahawk ever.
This was mentioned earlier but Justin Ellis who is a UFA with Oakland is a guy who the Seahawks need to look at this off-season.
Big-stout 1-tec who we’ve missed since Brandon Mebane walked out.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E6YxFD_su6I&t=170s
Could be a great fit if they let Sheldon walk. Kind of fill that Tony McDaniel, Kevin Williams, Aytaba Rubin role.
Can someone explain me some SC and dead money situations.
I will take Justin Britt contract as example.
2018 cap hit 6.166.000 dead money 8.750.000
2019 cap hit 7.916.000 dead money 5.840.000
2020 cap hit 11.700.000 dead money 2.900.000
If we trade him this year before 1st june what would be dead money for 2018 and 2019?
And what would happened if we trade him after june 1st?
If they traded him this year they’d take the dead cap hit of $8.75m and he’d be off the books in 2019.
If they cut him and designated him as a post June 1st cut they can split the dead cap into 2018 and 2019 but you can only do that for a couple of players.
Tnx Rob.
Dead money all has to do with a players signing bonus.
I’m going to be absolutely filthy if Earl leaves.
He’s far from my favourite personality on the team, but if he’s getting cut then PCJS are packing up the shop and starting all the way over.
If they cut him free and clear… I’ll be on angry dude. Same with Sherman.
No chance they cut them. They don’t need cap space that badly and both guys still playing at Pro Bowl level.
Earl will not be cut. They will probably listen to trade offers; they always do.
Rob have you had a chance to check out Shaqeem Griffin from UCF?
He seems really athletic, was ultra productive and the backstory is amazing. He screams Seahawk to me, not to mention his twin is a future star for us.
That being said will an NFL team give him a shot given his disability? Would it be more of an issue with the increased size, speed talent?
If Jim Abbot can pitch in the majors with one arm then I pray the NFL and SeaHawks in particular give this kid a shot!
Not Rob.
I think Shaquem Griffin is great. I think he will be more than likely a UDFA. or maybe a 7th round pick. I’d take him in the 4th or the 5th and not cry about the “bad draft pick.” It’s my guess that he is going to have a good/great combine certainly besting LB’ers in many speed related tests. And if he had both hands with his production I think you’d be looking at SAM/coverage LB with some plus blitzing skills.
I like the Abbot reference. I loved that dude when I was a kid. Didn’t realize he was drafted in the first round. Got to say I think standing on a mound and pitching one-handed seems to be significantly harder than playing Football down a hand.
There’s no doubting his disability will be considered by teams. I think he could be a key special teamer, might get a shot as a late rounder or UDFA.
A team that has dropped off in special teams coverage *cough* seattle *cough* could really do well by themselves and use a say a 6th on him. Somehow need to find the pieces to shore up that facet of the game.
If not for his disability, I would be fine using a second-third round pick on the kid. Good charecter, Love of the game, grit. He plays with his hair on fire. I hope he gets a combine invite!
Also Rob now that Rosen and Darnold have declared would love to hear what you think the Browns should do at 1-4?
I see the top 6 going like this but I guess you never know till combine.
#1 Browns-Darnold
#2 Giants- Rosen
#3 Colts trade pick to Ariz- Mayfeild
#4 Browns- Barkley
#5 Broncos (Sign Cousins)-Chubb or Nelson
#6 Jets- Allen
Allen to the Jets is the most Mike Maccagnan pick ever. I’d be getting the permanent markers out for that one.
Darnold, Barkley, and an actual coach would give the Browns a change to make some noise fairly quickly.
Agree about Browns. Add those two with Gordon, Corey Coleman and Njoku and you have an incredibly dynamic young offensive group.
Which RB in the draft would be best compliment to current group (Carson, Davis,Prosiseor Mckissic)?
For me it is definitely Sony Michel and I truly believe he could have an Kamara type impact. One cut runner who is a true home run hitter. Can also catch the ball and be threat in pass game.
Realistically the run game could be a strength next year if JS makes the right moves.
-Change OL blocking scheme
-Add nasty run blocking LG to bring an edge to OL (Vet FA Fluker, Norwall or Draft Price/Hernandez) basically the opposite of Joeckel.
-Carson,Prosise healthy
-Draft Sony Michel
-Select starting OL earl in camp and let them gel.
Carson and Michel would be a dynamic 1-2 rotation with Prosise getting 5-10 snaps a game in pass situations. Davis, Mckissic and a late round draft pick could provide depth/competition.
CJ will never contribute, not only is he injured all the time but clearly can’t/won’t play at less than 100%
I know it was probably hyperbole, but saying CJ will never contribute is false since he already has. See the NE and PHI games from last year. Even in TEN this year, he had that nice reception. Once again, look at P-Rich. People were down on him after his first 2 injury riddled seasons and ready to give up on him. Now, he might be looking at $8M/year after a healthy season. You don’t pin your hopes on CJ, but you also don’t give up on him while he’s still on a cheap contract.
Prich was actually a huge talent at Colorado basically carrying that offense plus Prich was actually suited up for a bunch of games in his first three seasons. and in each, you could see the long ball potential.
Prosise had one very good season at Notre Dame. Hopefully, he turns it around but I doubt it.
As per contracts, I would see another team pay Prich 8 mill on potential but I wouldn’t be surprised to see teams offer him significantly less based on his total lack of production vs. say a WR like Adams.
I made no mention of college stats because that was irrelevant to my argument about their first *2* seasons in the NFL. Richardson was hurt in the playoffs his rookie season and came back to play in 1 game his 2nd year, where he was injured on his only reception. The thought at that time was that he was injury prone and we shouldn’t expect much from him. Same thoughts are being written about CJ now. Those thoughts may be right. I’m just throwing out a cautionary tale about predicting someone’s future production based on their first 2 seasons being cut short due to injury.
Regular season stats after first 2 seasons:
P-Rich: 16 games, 30 receptions, 311 yards, 1 TD
Prosise: 11 games, 195 rushing yards, 23 receptions, 295 receiving yards, 1 TD
It was definitely hyperbole, I’m a huge fan of his talent. There’s a big difference between CJ and P-Rich injuries imo. (Not a Dr, stayed
at a Holiday Inn Express).
P-Rich had a surgery required major injury, he pulled a hammy upon returning, which is not that uncommon. He was placed on IR because they needed the roster spot.
CJ gets his ankles, feet, Hip etc a little banged up and can’t practice for weeks on end. You can’t expect to play in the NFL at a 100%. Twice he has endured a normal hit and broken a bone. He’s young and cost controlled so you won’t cut him, but no way they can approach the off season counting on him.
I agree completely with your last sentence and said much of the same thing myself in the last sentence of my comment to you.
I referenced college because there is history to inform that p-rich is a special talent. prosise is almost entirely the hope of him reaching his ceiling.
I get that there stats the first two years are similar. the difference in juries is significant. p-rich got wrecked and so did cj but this last year has been a mix of rehabbing and soft tissue injuries.
the stats though not skewed are not as informative over two years. the both had okay first seasons and not good second seasons. one due to playing only one game the other just not getti ng healthy.
I hope prosise shows promise next year. I really do. mostly because seattle does things like not draft kamara, per example, because the hope that prosise will be that weapon.
Agreed. I generally have a chip on my shoulder myself and like to see guys who prove others wrong. I also have probably too much optimism when it comes to SEA players. Example, I was a massive Michael Boulware fan. Probably one of the few who have his jersey. Thanks for the healthy discussion!
CJ has a chip on his shoulder too…
…a fractured scapula!
heck if we’re going that far back I wanted tubbs to regain health!
P-Rich has been a disappointment to me, based on what we were told he would be. We were told he was a 4.2 – 4.3 guy who would take lid off defenses. That has never happened. I have never seen him blow by a defense and come wise open. He’s not that guy. But what he does bring was a mild surprise. The guy will do anything to get to a ball, including throwing his body around, upside down, whatever it takes. But is he $8 mil good? No. He’s decent, not great. And he’s spent way too much time injured – so there’s the same availability issues plaguing him that Prosise has.
I’ve been thinking about this Trevor, and to me there are 3 main traits a SEA RB needs to be successful in the zone scheme as it currently stands (this could change with coaching shifts obviously). In no order of importance:
1) Lateral quickness. The ideal SEA RB needs to avoid tacklers in the backfield if need be or hit cutback lanes on a dime.
2) Vision. Hit the right hole. The anti 2016-2017 Rawls.
3) Initial burst. Needs to hit the hole with authority and get up to speed quickly.
IMO these are more important than true long speed and other qualities. 1 and 3 combine together to allow the RB to break tackles. Beast had all 3 of these in spades, but then again he’s a generational RB talent. 2015 Rawls had 2 and 3 and a bit of 1 which is why he was successful. This year, he seemed to have only #3. Lacy had nothing in terms of 1 and 3.
Again, if there’s a new blocking scheme introduced these could change. These are the 3 factors I would personally look at when evaluating RB for SEA.
Then your guy might be Kerryon Johnson tbh.
I think moving forward those guys are going to become the complement to the next running back. Meaning Carson comes in to spell the main back because he can run/catch/pass block and in college looked great but with limited snap counts.
Davis is a feel-good story. And I hope he sticks. I sometimes feel that the run game is so bad this year is kind of the reason why we as fans are so stoked about Davis. I’d love to see him carve a spot for himself moving forward.
Mckissic is actually great. He’s one of the few offensive pieces that seems to “get it,” from the start. for his limited snaps and his odd role he is always looking to help out Russel as an outlet, seems very good about finding the sticks
Prosise the Walter Thurmond III of running backs. All this promise but none of the games. Prosise’s two good games in 2016 are starting to feel more like Chris Matthews first half superbowl than anything that will ever happen moving forward. But Pete loves potential and they kept Thurmond for fours seasons I’m sure they will do the same with Prosise but I don’t even consider him going forward as any kind of factor.
Prosise being made of glass just sucks so bad, he could have an Alvin Kamara type impact if he could stay on the field.
I would just love to see what Prosise could do ih he was healthy all year as he is a match up nightmare.
no doubt hes a matchup nightmare.
I think our RB room next year will end up being:
Draft RB – Starter
Carson
McKissic/Prosise – Slash role
Davis/Depth Draft RB
Fowler/Madden – FB
I still think they want a FB in the offense even though they played most of the year without one after Madden was hurt. Maybe Swoopes could be a hybrid TE/FB?
“Which RB in the draft would be best compliment to current group (Carson, Davis,Prosiseor Mckissic)?”
The last 2 seasons have illustrated the need for a true #1 RB. There was not a lack of talented RB’s involved in the competition in the preseason 90 man roster. Alex Collins was viewed as our 5th or 6th best RB and was cut. Collins flourished in Baltimore and finished with 973 yards on 4.6 ypc. The RB’s JS/PC decided to keep yielded 994 yards on 3.19ypc. We can point to a number of offensive issues: OL, Bevell, Cable, penalties, PC, Russell, Graham’s disinterest in blocking, and the list goes on. The bottom line is that the offense, and run game in particular, has regressed since Marshawn Lynch gave the Hawks the prime of his illustrious career. Nick Chubb and Kerryon Johnson both look dynamic, pounding RB’s who have proven they can carry the load(20+ carries/game). We get one of them and voila the run game is fixed!…hopefully.
My Prediction for Hawks Vets and FA
Sherman-Plays final year of deal and is either extended mid-season or signs elsewhere in FA and we get 3rd round comp.
Earl-Traded for either a 1st or (2nd and 3rd) we save $8.5 mil in cap space
Bennett traded tp NE for 3rd or 4th Rd pick. $2 mil cap Savings
Avril-Retires we save $7.5 cap space
Lane- Cut we save $4.5 cap space
Ryan – Cut and we save $2mil cap space
Chancellor-Retires with injury settlement. We save $2-5 mil cap space
Total Cap Savings $26-$30mil
Graham-Signs elsewhere and we get 4th Rd Comp
Prich signs elsewhere and we get 4th Rd Comp
Joeckel signs elsewhere and we get 5th Rd Comp
S Richardson Signs elsewhere and we get 3rd Rd Comp
Walsh, Lacy and Rawls let walk but no comp pick
Total 4 comp picks for 2018-2019
Maxi resigned
Willson resigned
Mcdougald resigned
Coleman resigned
Dion Jordan resigned
Shead contract roll over
Isnt your max # of comp picks 3?
You can get up to 4
They will likely sign 1-2 FA from other teams so would lose 1-2.
You nailed it I think (and hope).
Just two notes PRich probably will get us only a fifth round pick. And I’m not sure about Sheldon Richardson.
If he is reasonably reasonable (lets say 11 mils APY) we should give him another contract.
I am with you on Sheldon Richardson. At the right price would love to see him back.
Agree with all except still on the fence about Earl and Bennett. I don’t think they’ll get the return they need for Earl and Bennett will be kept one more year as the leader in the DL room with Cliff gone. Also think Mike Davis is brought back for cheap.
If we trade ET then we should trade KJ to. we can’t be championship team without ET next year so i don’t see the point in keeping KJ in that case. We can get 3rd round pick for KJ this year or 4th round comp pick in 2020.
I agree to ship KJ, but not because I don’t think they couldn’t win with the team. You ship KJ for a pick to get younger, cheaper and faster. The Hawks played without most of those guys (outside of ET) for a good part of the year. So if defense is similar and you improve the offense with RB, OL and better scheme, I think the Hawks will be better. Hopefully less drops, less penalties, less missed FG.
This team can still go 11-5 with all those guys missing if PC makes a few tweaks to coaching, scheming and accountability.
I really don’t want to see Willson re-signed again. Stone hands and is marginal at best in the run game.
Im torn on Luke, especially after he dropped that gift against the Cardinals (i know its only one play). But if we let Jimmy walk then we only have Vannett, not much experience.
It doesn’t make football sense or cap space sense to trade Mike Bennett. imo People are discounting him playing on a torn plantar fascia-a very painful and explosion crippling injury. Most players would miss at least 4+ weeks with that injury. Bennett powered through it, and had 8.5 sacks. Pretty incredible. His penalties do need to be cleaned up a bit though. Cap space wise a $2m savings is not much at all. The rule of roster replacement makes it really more like a $1.4m savings at best. Is saving $1.4m and getting a 3rd round pick worth getting rid of the most versatile and most used(snap %) DL? I don’t think so.
Agreed, plus I bet you cant even get a third for a 32 yr DL
relating Carter to a Bruce Irvin type has me thinking about the value that role has on this team. From a roster spot perspective having a LB that can also rush and potentially stay on the field is such a better value than a Wilhoite or Garvin.
Picking at 18 really provides an opportunity to get a guy like that we havent had.
I like Carter quite a bit but I think he’s a mid 3rd round guy right now. he’s not super consistent. but definitely intriguing.
Sheldon Richardson expects to be back in Seattle, per Curtis Crabtree.
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/01/03/sheldon-richardson-expects-to-be-back-with-seahawks/
Makes sense, and you kind of need him back to justify that draft capital.
He didnt have sack #s (may make contract more reasonable) but I thought he was extremely solid and disruptive often.
Would we rather have Sheldon or get a guy on a one year deal like an Ahtyba Rubin type guy for $3 million.
What are you looking for?
Rubin is a run stuffer base down guy. Sheldon has rush potential (has in the past) and is an every down DL. Can you get an every down DL for 3M? Probably not…
But yeah, those are the question to ask.
Was stoked when we traded for Sheldon. Thought he could drastically improve our interior pass rush. It didn’t remotely play out that way at all. He got 1 sack. 1 sack!? Richardson was very solid against the run and had a couple big TO’s I’ll give him that. I still like the player and his talent level, but find it very hard to give $10m a year for 1 sack. Especially when we have promising yound DT’s in Reed and Jones under their rookie deals for the next 2 and 3 seasons. Is the transistional tag a possibility? If not let him walk and get the comp pick.
Sack numbers dont mean everything, and can be fluky. Need to account pressures, hits, knockdowns too.
I dont know enough about schemes to compare what he did here vs the Jets when he had better sack numbers
Can we expect him to take a below market rate deal then, please? I personally don’t want to shell out a ton of cash for him, but would take him for less than projected.
Seahawks should start at medium pay and be prepared to let him go if he gets a great offer from someone. I would start at 8 million on a 4 year contract. I feel that is his worth as he is a solid starter but not an elite starter. Maybe he gets more somewhere else = and that is okay. Maybe he stays with the Seahawks.
As fans I hope we recognize that in any free agency there are a few players at each position who make out like bandits with a huge salary. The rest of the group get lesser salaries, and then there are a few leftovers that take what they can get. My point is = if you judge the entire group by what the high few make then you will over pay for the medium tier.
Just because an elite safety might make 13 million doesn’t mean all safeties are going to make 13 million. Not all tight ends are worth 10 million. Some are lucky to get 2 million.
Tough to say where they begin negotiating the $s at. Pete has consistently praised him, and stated in his last presser that they would love to have him back, if they can. I know a lot of folks were down on him b/c the sacks weren’t there, but FWIIW, PFF kinda consistently had him rated out as the team’s best DL performer most games, recognizing his solid play against the run and pass. I also think there is a chance that, in Pete’s defense, DT’s aren’t afforded to pin their ears back and charge through gaps like they are in other schemes. I think Pete wants more discipline. Seattle might value him more than some contingent of it’s fanbase.
Personally, I’m not convinced that he’s going to be a $14 mill player on the open market, but he could be a $12 mill one.
I think based on what Pete said and now what’s come out that Sheldon said, a deal feels more likely. Maybe it’s short term, but it wouldn’t shock me if it’s in the Timmy Jerrigan range. I really like Naz and Jarran, but Sheldon is a really good ball player.
That’s nice to hear, and it’s what he’s supposed to say, but he’s going to sign with whoever gives him the most $$.
Yep. Sheldon said before the season that he’ll let his agent figure it all out. IE he’ll go to who ever will give him the most money. Can’t blame him for that. It’s highly unlikely that the Hawks will be the team who will offer him the most money.
He seemed like that to me, but I think he really fit in with our guys this season and that might have made football fun for him again.
So maybe the Hawks max offer is $1-2m less than some other team. If that team is not even a contender, will it really be worth it to him to take off and spend his prime years on a losing team? He’s had that experience already on NYJ and probably didn’t enjoy it.
I have no insider info or anything, but I think those things factor in, even though I agree from his press conferences when he first arrived he gave the firm impression that he would just follow the money with his agent and didn’t really care where he played.
The only way we keep that pick is if they trade Earl for some high end draft capital. 18 would be considerably more fun than waiting until day two again, though. Man, I’m starting to think that Chubb is going first round now. So many good backs, but after Barkley, he may be the second back off the board. Now, I’d you told me that we got a second round pick and we had a shot at Davenport, Billy Price, or maybe even Edmunds… Harris/Jones/Michel it is.
I agree. No way we pick at 18 if there is no other first, second, or third.
If we did have two first round picks I would go defense first (Davenport) and running back second (Chubb or Harris).
I agree
Pauline is wayyy too low on Marcus Davenport.
“I would expect him to receive an invitation to a January All-Star game then attend the combine and eventually end up in the early part of the draft’s final day.”
a lot for him will come down to testing numbers. he looks good on tape and though he doesn’t dominate all the time he’s alternately creating out there with minimal other help on that defensive line.
* October
The same Pauline who said Reddick was a 6th-7th in Ocrtohber of last year?
I will say this about Davenport, and I know Rob loves him, but he’s an unfinished product. Now, doesn’t that mean he won’t be a first round pick? Of course it doesn’t. I watched every piece of film I could find the other day. He wasn’t destroying his competition. He was obviously the best athlete on the field most of the time, though. He had a nice game against TAMU, but he wasn’t busting through OT’s and sacking everyone or anything like that. He had a lot of subtle plays. He needs to add a little muscle and he needs refinement in his technique. The thoughts that he is a sure-fire too 15 pick by some scouts may be valid. Still, he’s got work to do before he’s terrorizing professional tackles. He will definitely not fall to the final day of the draft. I doubt he makes it into round two unless his workouts stink.
There is an interesting article on Field Gulls that statistically analyzes the benefits of a running game. Food for thought!!!
It’s fluff. I started to read and and realized it’s a devil’s advocate type piece. Ever play defense? You wear down. It’s a thing. You get tired of tackling someone over and over and over again. You hate OL coming downhill at you while you’re trying to locate the ball carrier. I mean, you can get tired out covering passes too, but the mental toll being pounded on for 4 quarters is a thing.
+1
Intuitively I agree with you. But the same could be said about wide receivers running routes and passing the ball. It should open up in the fourth quarter. Seahawks certainly play better in the third and fourth quarter.
As far as defense getting tired, why does the defensive line overwhelm Seahawks offensive line in the second half?? They don’t seem that tired to me. RW is running for his life back there.
Anyway= its all statistically based soooo what statistics do we have to refute it? Have the Seahawks taken some long runs to the house in the second half?
There are too many variables compounded in his analysis, so that it’s not surprising he can’t see any trends. Also, I don’t think he considered any of the reasons (and hence benefits) why, I suspect, PC believes in the concept. From what I’ve read and heard, PC believes in establishing control of games and ‘establishing the run’ is a key part of that. It enables control of the clock and dictates what opponents do. Trying to analyse that statistically is a minefield because there are too many (undefinable) variables in play.
He does mention clock control, which usually occurs when a team is ahead in the fourth quarter.
He was trying to show with statistics whether running hard all game pays off with longer runs at the end of the game. He could not find a correlation in the numbers. Perhaps it is just the Seahawks??
As an interesting side note: a lot of people are mad because Oklahoma didn’t let Mayfield pass more in the overtime loss, instead they ran the ball multiple times and were stopped. Perhaps they would have won that overtime if they had passed the ball more frequently.
I suspect in PC’s case, clock control applies to the whole game, not just the fourth quarter. Using the run game to control the clock and dictate how the opponent plays only requires sufficient yardage to help keep the sticks moving. If this is successful then presumably it doesn’t matter whether the run game produces more yards in the 4Q than the other three.
I can see the question he was trying to address, but because of the ‘noise’ introduced by all the variables he wasn’t considering (or able to remove) there was never much prospect of seeing a meaningful answer. I enjoy his statistical takes, but in this case maybe he should have simply concluded that it wasn’t possible to address the question he posed in a reasonable way. He didn’t show there was no correlation, he simply failed to find one (in my view because the complexities involved in the data set offered little prospect of any simple statistical analysis being meaningful).
I could stomach that article at all and quit, and I like advanced stats. It wasnt well written, plus the premise is just kind of stupid. I dont need to advance statistics to see the difference in Seattle’s effectiveness when it has had balance, and the D’s effectiveness when they eliminate the run.
Having a balanced offense is a separate question. Most modern offenses have a higher ratio of passing to running than the Seahawks preference of a 50/50 balance.
Hawks’ offense seems like they have too many empty possessions, and too many quickly ended drives. It’s easy to play defense when you’re tackling the offense for a loss on first down and playing ahewad of the chains. Then Russell gets loose for a big play, quick drive. They aren’t sustaining hints for long periods of time. Penalties also don’t help.
3 and outs will kill you. If you can even get 1 first down and run 4-6 plays and gain 20 yards or so the defense can rest and you can punt from you own 35-40 which isnt bad.
just checked out the newest walter football mock and though I am using laughing with his locks his latest has us taking Clellin Ferrell put of Clemson. a big, long de seems fairly fast, not every play is a winner but I was wondering if anyone has any thoughts in him as an edge player for seattle.
also in that mock he has basically every plus running back at 34-40 so I think that’s about right.
one last thing, I’ve seen cdog (I think) mock duke eijiofor from vandy and I watched a bunch of his tapes. I’m really feeling this guy. at first I thought he was slow with his first step but then the more I watched the more it felt like he was doing that sneaky kj wright thing of assessing the play accurately instead of being run out of it. appeared to have a good mix of moves, swim, bull rush, straight speed, and has some truly nasty hand fighting where he just destroys olinemens hand placement sending them reeling before they even get engaged.
wake forest not vandy, my bad
Ferrell is one of the more exciting players in this class. Long, looks the part, can kick inside on passing downs, lots of upside (only a R-SO), good strength, nice speed off the edge, plays sound and smart.
Didn’t even play his SR of HS either and was still a 4 star recruit.
I love his reach. just phenomenal. I did see some inside moves as well
I’ve been thinking about Duke Ejiokor a lot as someone who could either replace Mike B if the team moves on from him, or replace Cliff as the LDE rush end in the nickel. Just seems like a player who might end up getting it done being a really good tactician at the next level, and maybe someone they target Day 2.
Seems like this draft looks like it could be really loaded up with a bunch of traditional throw back DE’s and less in the way as the LEO types. Which for Seattle, may not be a bad thing. I don’t know how much the LEO is emphasized in Seattle these days, anyways.
Looking back at past drafts, where Seattle sits at #18 is a god damn ead zone for RBs. Literally none go in that range. What position does? OL and DBs.
Still can’t shake this feeling/hunch I got that Seattle will be all over DB Derwin James. Whether he’s there or not, who knows, good chance of him being there though.
6’3, 215 lbs. Can play SS, FS, CB, and no doubt in my mind with his aggression and technique that he could fill a Mark Barron LB type role for Seattle.
For some reason I have a feeling that he will not fall past the Redskins. He can fill the Sua’a Cravens position.
Could. Although I feel like they already got that guy in Montae Nicholson.
Derwin James can’t pmay free safety in he NFL. Not the way he would need to. He’s proven that he’s not all that fluid in coverage and his ball skills aren’t what they should be. Box safety, perhaps in the Kam mold if he’s lucky.
James would play SS and Mcdougald would play FS.
I think they definitely be interested. His freshman tape before the injury is crazy good. He got better as the year went on. I think he will be an impact guy next year.
Seattle’s tackling was abysmal this year. James’ technique is almost flawless.
I like Minkah a whole lot too but to me he’s more of a finesse guy.
Where do you see Hill if they draft James?
Where do you see Delano Hill if they.draft James?
Are.you “tyler” on twiter? 🙂
He is kind of an unknown a little bit right now. Stellar freshman year. Mostly OK year last year. Where does he land between the two? How much did his injury affect this past year? I feel like he has a bit to prove in off season. Got all the tools physically. If he does come to Seattle he will be in great position. Pete Carrol is the best in the business.
I’m not sure they’d use a Mark Barron. Fought playing McDougald as a big nickel all year — and Delano Hill. Stuck to a more orthodox scheme. Pete even laughed at the big nickel idea multiple times with Brock & Salk.
If they want James it’d probably to be a pure strong safety. Just not convinced they’d go for that position early — and they drafted Delano a year ago.
do you think a pick like that would happen regardless of, or due to, a trade of earl?
Arden Key, Josh Seat, Tim Settle all declared today and could be guys to watch.
Josh Sweat
Settle definitely makes things interesting.
Auden Tate WR from FSU is going to be a steal for someone on Day#2. He will be a TD machine in the NFL and a perfect big WR red zone target if Jimmy leaves.
Would love to see the Hawks take him if the maneuver to get some Day#2 picks.
Sony Michel, Rashaad Penney, Wil Hernandez and Auden Tate are 4 day#2 guys on offense who could have a huge impact next year.
Realistic Trade Scenario if Browns want to be competitive next year.
Hawks Trade Earl to Cle for 1st pick in 2nd +1st pick in 3rd.
Hawks trade 18 to Bills for #21 + a 3rd round pick.
Hawks trade #33 to Jets for #49 and #72
Rd #1 Pick #21 James SS (FSU) or Edmunds (LB-Vtech) or Davenport (Edge-UTSA)
Rd#2 Pick #49 Sony Michel (RB-Georgia) or Harris (RB-Alabama)
RD#3 Pick #65 Will Hernandez (LG-UTEP)
RD #3 Pick #72 Auden Tate (WR-FSU)
I was just thinking of the Browns as a trade partner for the Seahawks today. They have a ton of cap space and assests. If they could try to get Kirk Cousins then draft Barkley, trade for Earl they could be a force.
http://www.starsandstripesfc.com/2018/1/4/16848716/untitled-journal-of-an-us-soccer-coach
First installment to my coaching journey. Give us a rec, luv.
Done, and gladly!
Will be looking forward to keeping up with your coaching adventures. Best of luck!
Thanks there’s so much more open opportunity in the sport it was really easy to get my foot in the door.
The goal is to one day be in a pro system, regardless of position to prepare me for developing talent to a high level.
Really happy for you taking the first steps. Live the dream. Make it happen.
More good stuff on the day 3 WR I’ve got my eye on so far. Glad to see he does a lot of the little things well. Sometimes guys get away with stuff in college that just wont cut it in the pros.
RSP Boiler Room No. 122: WR Marcell Ateman (Oklahoma State)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzKVmxmxuA0
(obviously, go watch his highlights first if you haven’t yet!)
Big fan of Ateman. The Senior Bowl is packed with intriguing big WR targets. Ateman, Lazard, Chark, Moore, Wilson. Trevor mentioned Auden Tate above he’s talented too. Who will separate themselves from the pack? My money is Ateman-it’ll be fun to watch!
V12, I admire you for sticking to your original guys and not falling into the groupthink/hype we can all tend to be prone to.
A while back, we were convinced we wouldn’t even come close to sniffing Derwin James. Now we have a higher draft pick than we thought we would and there seems to be a reasonable chance he could be there.
A while back, my first RB impressions had me believing Guice would be the #2 off the board. Since then, Rob pointing out his likely inferior athleticism to some of the others turned me off a bit. But that doesn’t mean he’s not still a great, fiesty player with an awesome, gritty backstory.
Guice may not test well athletically, but he sure looks explosive with the ball in his hands. Kind of like Cook in last years draft. I keep forgetting about Guice in this year’s loaded RB class. He can ball!
If Vita Vea somehow ends up staring us in the face at #18, maybe due to perceived effort concerns or above all devaluation of run-stuffing DTs, do you almost have to scrap the plan and pull the trigger on a talent like that who would fit our scheme so well?
Wisconsin LB TJ Edwards back to school. Keep an eye on him for next year. Dang good in coverage and best LB hands I’ve seen.