This isn’t a great year to pick early
The Jaguars probably partied long into the night when they pinched the #1 pick off the Jets. This might be one of the worst years to pick in the top-10 once Trevor Lawrence goes off the board.
There’s a severely limited pool of ‘legit’ first round prospects this year. Perhaps as few as 8-12.
Lawrence is a star in the making. Penei Sewell and Ja’Marr Chase would be legit top-10 picks in any year. I think Kyle Pitts did enough in 2020 to show he warrants a high grade.
DeVonta Smith will likely have a lot of admirers but a lack of size will lead to some second guessing his true value at the top of the board, especially if there’s a feeling he won’t run a lightning quick forty.
There could also be some size concerns regarding Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah but he’s so fast and explosive I think many will grade him in round one.
There’s a lot of social media speculation about Micah Parsons and possible character flags. We’ll see if there’s anything in that.
Teams will also grade certain players very highly against the consensus. Others, such as Northwestern offensive lineman Rashawn Slater, will be rated very highly by some and less so by others.
Overall though I think it’s a poor top-end of the draft. It’s perhaps not surprising Detroit snubbed the offer of the #8 pick from Carolina for Matt Stafford in favour of future, later first round picks from the Rams. They might be struggling enough as it is to work out what to do with #8.
The quarterback class is a complete mixed bag where you’ll have to talk yourself into making the pick. That will happen — it always does. Yet as much as I like Zach Wilson there are also moments of concern. Justin Fields lit up Clemson but also has a lot of fairly middling tape.
I’m not convinced either will fly off the board like the mock drafts are suggesting. I had both falling a bit in my last mock and I think that might end up being the consensus.
Then you’ve got Mac Jones — who looked like a class act at the Senior Bowl. His body language, confidence and relaxed state just oozed starting quarterback. He threw with poise, accuracy and touch. Yet he also can’t drive the ball downfield and his lack of zip showed up during red zone drills when he had to throw into tighter windows.
Trey Lance is a one-year starter who struggled in his only 2020 start and I think it’s a big assumption he will go in round one.
I like Davis Mills at Stanford and I’ve been saying for months that I think he’ll go earlier than most are projecting. He has all the tools you look for. Yet he only has a handful of starts in college.
Kellen Mond might be a better option if you’re drafting to develop someone and he’ll be available in rounds 2/3. He has the experience, he’s shown progression and he has a fantastic arm.
On top of this there aren’t any ‘sure things’ on the defensive line. There’s production from some and extreme athleticism with others — but also a lot of ‘could go either way’ types.
The group of cornerbacks carry a whole bunch of speed question marks.
What this draft does have, though, is depth on the O-line and at receiver. We might see several getting pushed up the board as a consequence.
There’s also a thick second and third tier. There might not be many players worthy of a top-10 placing but the player you take at #12 might have a similar grade as the player at #35.
In fact the very start of round two could be a veritable treat for the teams lucky enough to pick in that range.
Two tight ends to monitor
I’m not sure what Seattle’s approach will be at tight end this year. Greg Olsen is moving on. We’ll see about Jacob Hollister.
Reportedly the team really likes Colby Parkinson. When he was drafted we noted he was a victim of K.J. Costello’s Stanford meltdown. Parkinson had been considered by many as a fringe first round candidate until the Cardinal offense collapsed. He ended up in round four.
It would be a huge boost if he could deliver on his potential and become a fourth round starter.
Will Dissly didn’t quite look as sharp in 2020. Whether that was the injuries taking their toll or the Seahawks not wanting to stretch him too far, who knows? It might even be that they simply didn’t have any idea how to get their tight ends properly involved last season, despite the major investment in the position.
Nevertheless, it feels like there’s room in this offense for a dynamic tight end or slot to emerge in 2021.
Seattle has drafted five tight ends under Pete Carroll (if you don’t count Stephen Sullivan who was kind of picked as a player with no real set position):
Nick Vannett
Luke Willson
Anthony McCoy
Will Dissly
Colby Parkinson
They also traded for Jimmy Graham and signed Zach Miller and Greg Olsen.
All eight players are linked with a certain characteristic.
It appears the Seahawks view the short shuttle as an important drill:
Luke Willson — 4.29 at pro-day
Will Dissly — 4.40
Nick Vannett — 4.20
Anthony McCoy — 4.57
Colby Parkinson — 4.46
Zach Miller — 4.42
Jimmy Graham — 4.45
Greg Olsen — 4.48
We’ve talked about Gerald Everett as a possible free agent target. He’s familiar with Shane Waldren and has a great attitude but hasn’t delivered on the second round pick LA spent on him four years ago.
I’m not sure the Seahawks would covet a 6-3, 240lbs tight end with 33 inch arms and 8.5 inch hands — but he did run a 4.33 short shuttle and a 6.99 three cone at his combine.
There are two other possible candidates for day three in the draft.
Tre McKitty spent time at Florida State and Georgia in college. His 32 2/8 inch arms might be a problem for Seattle but he has 11 inch hands and it shows when he catches the ball. At the Senior Bowl he stood out with his catching — absorbing the football with his huge mitts including one spectacular one-handed catch. His blocking was also highly regarded.
He’s 6-4 and 247lbs but here’s the interesting part — he ran a 4.13 short shuttle at SPARQ. That’s an incredible time that would certainly catch Seattle’s eye if repeated during the draft process. He also jumped a 35 inch vertical.
Tommy Tremble is another option. He’s always been more of a blocker than a pass catcher for Notre Dame but he ran a 4.20 short shuttle and jumped a 36 inch vertical at SPARQ.
Some are even saying he could end up playing in the Kyle Juszczyk role as a dynamic full back who can be worked into the passing game as a mismatch weapon.
I don’t know whether the Seahawks will be in a position to use one of only three or four picks on a tight end. Yet when you get to day three, you really shouldn’t be looking to fill ‘holes’ in that range.
They need a solution. Over the cap updated their system today and estimated the Seahawks are $2m in the red for 2021 as things stand.
Something’s got to give.
If you missed my interview with Quinn Meinerz yesterday, check it out here…
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Nothing would make me happier than Colby developing into a legit receiving threat at TE. Both as a Seahawks fan and someone who has him on a couple dynasty fantasy football teams.
Great insight Rob. You’re right, this year’s top 10 certainly doesn’t have that ‘sure thing’ feel of most other years.
Found this on my guy Jake Ferguson. It shows a 4.15 time (in 2016), good for 99th percentile. Still really like him as an option.
https://247sports.com/college/wisconsin/Board/23/Contents/Jake-Ferguson-SPARQ-45337093/
He didn’t declare
Well…. that’s going to make it tough to draft him then 🙂
Guess he’s my guy for 2021
Uhmm, dcd2 … it is 2021 🙂
Yikes. Not my finest hour in this comment thread!
#FergusonIn2022!
Oscar: I just wanted you to know that you can’t just say the word bankruptcy and expect anything to happen.
Michael: I didn’t say it. I declared it.
I don’t remember any Michael, but I do recall a certain Lord Rupert Everton. He’s a shipping merchant who raises fancy dogs, no?
Got hops: https://mobile.twitter.com/BobbyBeltTX/status/1354235099961815042
Good Corner. I’m just hoping DJ Reed made the Seahawks realize there are quality starters that don’t all fit their preferred measurables. Juset find good football players.
One of my several choices for a day-3 draft pick at CB. Looks like a “ball hawk” to me. Super springy too from the look of that clip, thanks for posting it. I’d estimate that on his vert, he’d likely hit at least 40″-42″+.
CB-Robert Rochell, Central Arkansas(FCS), 5-117/195, 79″-wing, 32-3/8″-arms, 2019: 44-tkls, 5-INT & 18-PBU’s Stingy & aggressive in man coverage. A little “handsy” at times. Fast & fluid, explosive & rarely misses tackles, physical, contorts his body to make plays. Also he’s fairly good in zone coverage, but should benefit from good coaching there, especially against really fast receivers (like most CB’s). 38 career PBU’s & 10-INT = good production (even if in the FCS). Should be a nice developmental CB to learn from PC and staff.
1st of All THANK YOU ROB – for putting out amazing content consistently. I tell everyone I know who loves ball about your draft coverage. We appreciate your work.
Ive decided to throw together my 1st version of a Mock draft.
In this we get a 2nd + a 4th from Jax for Wagner.
Then we get a 2nd +3rd + next years 1st from MIA for Adams.
Im only going to mock the first 4 rounds as I dont know many prospects deep.
This loads us up with:
33
35
55
81
128
146
168
207
here we Go:
Rd 2 (33) DT Alim McNeil
With Reed again in a contract year, and Poona a RFA we are staring down the prospect of having little in the rotation at DT again. So why not get a game wrecker that may provide even more pass rush then Jarran. In my mind he is a slightly more athletic Jarran Reed.
rd 2 (35) C Quinn Meinerz
Im all in on the Hype. Get a nasty center who is small and stout and not a complete L everytime he faces Aaron Donald.
rd 2 (55) LT D’Ante Smith
6-foot-5, 294 pounds with 35.28-inch arms, an 85.15-inch wing span and 10-inch hands. ECU Tackle who missed all but 1 game this year from a concussion. Has Superb length but would be invaluable as a apprentice/backup To Duane Brown.
Rd 3 (81) DE Payton Turner
“His arms came in at 35” which was the second-longest among all defensive ends. His wingspan of 84” is also in the 99th percentile for defensive ends all time and he has the reach of an average person who is 7 foot tall.”
A FREAK. Looks like he could be Carlos Dunlap 2.0
Infact Dunlap would be the perfect mentor for him and long term replacement.
“Pass rush moves ive seen Payton Turner use against Tulane:
Straight bull rush 👀
Bull-and-Pull 🐂
Outside swim move 🎯
Dip and rip from the speed rush 🏎
Chop and rip 🔪
Long-arm bull 💪🏻
Inside spin 🌪”
I get Mike B vibes in a Carlos Dunlap Frame.
rd 4 (128) RB Trey Sermon
Fall from the Shoulder injury but I think he has the nasty in him and could be a good fit.
rd 4 (146) need to dig more into what to pick here – Open to thoughts!
Thank you 👍🏻
Thanks for the mock! Bonus points for the emoji game you’ve got going…😁
On day 3, I’d suggest looking at a couple developmental prospects for our secondary. Divine Deablo to compete with Blair and Neal at SS and Benjamin St-Juste at CB are my current favorites.
I really like WR Amari Rodgers for the slot, but am thinking he might go closer to R3.
Amari Rodgers Every Senior Bowl 1-on-1 Rep
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sawT5CMm9Gc
Amari Rodgers 2020 Regular Season Highlights | Clemson WR
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iVdvJLvWGao&ab_channel=ACCDigitalNetwork
Catches at 8:30 and 9:15 😲
Amari Rodgers looks great! He and Demetric Felton were the big WR winners IMO for the Senior Bowl. Eskridge too, but was disappointed he didn’t get even a single catch in the game.
Dez Fitzpatrick looked great in the game. Didn’t see much of him in the 1v1’s. I’ve seen him tabbed as a day 3 guy.
Cade Johnson would probably be available in that range! He’s a little smaller 5’10” 190lbs. He’s out to South Dakota State University.
Here a write up- https://www.profootballnetwork.com/cade-johnson-nfl-draft-player-profile-south-dakota-state-wide-receiver/
Highlights from 2019- https://youtu.be/BWZwiypwciw
He comps pretty close to Tyler Lockett as far as measurables, just with bigger hands:
Lockett: 5096, 182, 30 arms, 8 3/8 hand
Johnson: 5103, 186, 29 arms, 9 3/8 hand
I’m just not convinced he has the speed.
Cade Johnson Every Senior Bowl 1-on-1 Rep
https://youtu.be/ED1eAJi3rnk
Thanks sea mode!! I love the community here! A lot of people putting in some great work!
Draft a viable CENTER and LG on the OL. Protect our 35 million dollar QB…It has to be the #1 priority. Let the other chips fall where they will.
I like the idea of a vet at one of those spots. Rookie-Rookie-2nd year IOL is going to have some serious growing pains.
In 2020, the Los Angeles Rams, played
LT: Andrew Whitworth
LG: Bobby Evans, Austin Corbett
C: Austin Blythe, Brian Allen
RG: David Edwards, Joseph Noteboom
RT: Rob Havenstein
Swing T: Tremaine Anchrum
Lots of young guys, lots of position flexibility, anchored by an old dawg. The difference to our OL planning could not be more dramatic.
Ah, btw,… the Los Angeles Chargers have an OL build of vets. And they are utter crap. You cannot build an OL through FA; you’ll always have holes.
That said, I don’t think we will get a C and a G in this draft. Not without acquiring more picks.
They will need at least one more day two pick to pull it off.
But if they do go down that road, I hope they find a way to add a WR or TE somewhere else because they badly need a dynamic third target.
You would think it would be one free agent and one draft pick to fill those two holes. Seems like the best value would be to go center for the free agent?(maybe Lindsey)
Either way, we need quite a few things this off-season (more if we plan to trade away anyone for draft capital) and only a few poor picks to make it happen. I also question JS & Co’s ability to ID a good OL prospect. Damien Lewis looks like a good pick, but the rest of the last decade has been pretty poor results.
FA will sort some things out, but I would guess we’ll still be searching for a RB, WR, TE, OL, CB at a minimum.
Thanks Rob, great stuff! Really like the idea of Tommy Tremble
Thanks for pointing out that the group of true first round prospects is thin in this year’s draft. Yet several mock drafts have a lot of QB’s going in the first round.
Experience tells us that it’s difficult to accurately see the differences in NFL performance of QB’s based on college performance and on measurables. The Mayfield, Allen, Darnold, Rosen draft year is an example. I agree with you that there is just one sure thing QB this year.
I really hope that Greg Newsome II has 32 inch arms because he would be the perfect Seahawks cornerback. He’s 6’1″ and 190 pounds and he’s someone that plays the ball and is not afraid to make the tackle. Watching him on the field, he’s a sparky player and fiery character. He played the LCB and would be someone that would start opposite of DJ Reed. His projections are all over the place, from third round to middle rounds. Have you had a chance to study the defensive backs, Rob?
I haven’t — I usually wait for measurements. And even then, I always limit how much time I spend on them because the Seahawks barely ever draft them until the later rounds — and they’ve hardly taken many corners in years.
Shaquill is the earliest selected corner in this regime and was taken in the third round. (not counting Blair who was a safety at the time). At this time last year, we didn’t think they would take a LB in the first round either. Bruce was seen as a DE when he was drafted and Bobby was a second rounder. So I think we should at least be open to the idea. Will they be doing measurements at Pro Days since there is no Combine?
But there was never any reason why they wouldn’t take a LB early. It was simply that it didn’t look like a big priority.
They have gone out of their way not to draft CB’s early. There’s 10-11 years of history there. I’m not going to start considering it until it happens at this stage.
If you looking for a day 3 CB, keep an eye on Nashon Wright from Oregon St. 6’4″, 188. I’d be surprised if his arms aren’t 32″. Real good tackler. Good at tracking the ball and getting his hands on it (2ints, 6 pbu in 6 games). Decent long speed. Quick learner. Adapted quickly to PAC12 from a JC. Suffers from the classic “tall CB” issues at times. Really good potential.
Hey Rob: Do you think that Phil Haynes is a legitmate starting guard in the N.F.L. I remember when the Seahawks selected Haynes Duane Brown had a lot of nice things to say about him.
Well two years in he hasn’t been able to stay healthy
Rob: Good Point. Phil Haynes has not been able to stay healthy. .
Agreed with TRE’ MCKITTY as one to watch. His short area quickness is quite evident on film that would work well with the TE screens that Waldron will utilize, especially since he has history of running those in his college career. I hope that he’s on their radar. He plays like a big WR: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-KtokWAzzc
Hi Rob, what’s your impression of John Bates, tight end out of Boise State?
I haven’t watched him, sorry
Nice write up Rob. Since you were bringing up some TE’S; I was wondering your thoughts on Hunter Long. I really liked what I’ve seen from him.
I’ve watched a little bit of his tape and thought he looked fairly average to be honest
Ends with good short shuttle times are TIGHT!
(Sorry, just had to… TGIF have a good one, everyone.)
😂
Rob,
Have there been any drafts that you can recall with a similar lack of true first-round talent available? Would be interesting to look back and see, for example, if teams largely avoided trading up in the 1st round in those kinds of drafts since why give up so much capital unless there’s someone out there truly worth it?
I can’t remember one as light as this for legit R1’s but I haven’t gone back and studied the last few classes or what I thought about them
2009 was terrible.
Very true. Still, it was a nice class for us, primarily because of Unger.
My bad. I thought you were talking about the first round.
🙄
Does he really…? I don’t think so. Good thing he’d rather be in the owner’s booth:
https://twitter.com/AlbertBreer/status/1357732944895475715
I think he’d be awful in the booth
100%. It would be an ad nauseum collection of great players making great plays, getting after it. Every week. The monotony of it would grow tiresome by week 3.
Like a scratched record.
So we do still have Chance Warmock on the roster. (I think!) Will he make an impact this coming year on the OL?
I would guess not
Not a super on-topic question, but this is something that has been bugging me and I want to understand…
How are we now in the red with the cap? It seems like every 2 weeks our cap shrinks. We went from being in the teens, to 6m, to 2m, to less than 1m, and now we’re negative? I was assuming that these projections had taken post-season expenses into account, but maybe I was wrong? Could someone with some cap-savvy take a minute to explain to me what’s going on?
Players are given incentives based on past performance. Snaps played, Pro Bowl and All-Pro honors received, etc. They affect their salary in the following season.
Sometimes they are contractual, sometimes they are written into the Collective Bargaining Agreement.
When the season ends they’re typically awarded and the cap shrinks.
Another thing that reduces the cap is when teams sign players to Futures Contracts. A few weeks ago the Seahawks had 34 contracted players for 2021. They now have 48.
Rob, you’ve probably talked about him before, but what are your thoughts on Jermar Jefferson from Oregon State. I was impressed by him several times over the last couple of years. What round do you think he might go in?
I’m not sure. He’s the type of player I want to see testing numbers for. He played well in 2020 but there weren’t many games.
Do we get some extra draft picks or something… 🤷♂️
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/05/sports/football/seahawks-coronavirus-nfl.html
It’s still an extraordinary achievement, considering 31 other NFL teams weren’t able to do it. I just get tired of Pete constantly mentioning it when pressed about getting bounced out in the first round.
As a fan of Notre Dame, I am loving all the Aaron Banks, Tommy Tremble love being throw around. While they have not had great success when it comes to the playoffs, they have turned out some good NFL players as of late. Not that I need more reason to cheer for the Hawks, but I do like it when they select a Fighting Irish player. One that I haven’t seen people on the board mention is Daelin Hayes. A pretty mature young man who had a good Sr. Bowl by all accounts. Never quite lived up to all the hype in college, but had a decent four years. Any thoughts on him by those of you who are smarter than me (which pretty much means any of you)? Seems like a guy we could get on Day 3. Does he not fit the system or is he just another average Joe.
Hayes had a good Senior Bowl based on what I saw. Played with real aggression, attacked the 1v1’s. Only problem is he has short arms.
Personally I’m all about adding to the oline for the run game and being able to physically match up with Donald a bit better. Such a ridiculous amount of content to read after a hectic work week, but absolutely spot on. After watching the games this year, it’s really hard to imagine the defense making the minimum bar required without retaining Poona, KJ and Dunlap, everyone else is far game for trade including Reed and Wagner. . It felt like they really sold out for trying to win a SuperBowl with the Addams trade, pressure to placate their franchise QB with a blue chip addition after an offseason of hearing how badly it was needed. Your goal for long term success should always start with the draft, and having a way to get those players on the field. We got fleeced in the Addams trade, whoever you want to blame, JS for the haul he gave up, PC for not having a plan on how to use his skill set. I don’t see the 18 million for Addams happening bye any means, nothing about his play deemed worth that type of payday. It would be interesting to let him test the market with the ability to match, but he can’t be not good enough to resign and have massive trade value. I think he’d see a bit of a Clowney situation on the open market given safety haven’t faired well in free agency for years. Whatever they do, it’s the damage control of short term thinking and they need to learn their lesson and avoid the free agent splash moves unless it’s a premium position, ideal fit, and good deal; valuing their draft capital and showing the aptitude at their job bye getting them on the field has to be a priority. From a damage control perspective I’d probably take a first this year, then trade that pick for a first and third next year, so profit nothing this offseason but the cap savings and have that bad decision paid for without dragging it out multiple years. We haven’t seen last years first round pick yet, so kind of have our first round pick from this year on the team already.
The Rams have done some things, but they are an injury prone QB away from having no real return on 7 years worth of first round picks. I’m more concerned about the Rams/Hawks match up with Stafford, but would be surprised if it works out for them long term.