I talked about this during the podcast yesterday (the video is at the bottom of the page). I wanted to flesh out the thoughts in an article too.
Now that Russell Wilson has identified the four teams he would be prepared to go to, I wanted to consider trade offers that might keep Seattle on the phone.
These things are difficult to project. If the Raiders and Bears get into a bidding war, who knows where the price goes? If you’re offering three firsts, players and maybe more — are you in for a penny, in for a pound at that point?
The ideal scenario for the Seahawks, if a trade becomes inevitable, is to have at least two aggressive teams trying to outbid each other.
That situation isn’t unrealistic.
Ryan Pace and Matt Nagy are lucky to still be in a job in Chicago. They’re hanging by a thread. Pace is the GM famous for trading up for Mitchell Trubisky when he could’ve had Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson. The only way to avoid that being inscribed on his tombstone is to pull off a major move such as trading for Russell Wilson.
In Las Vegas, Mark Davis has a franchise to promote in a non-football city. Imagine being able to put billboards up all over Vegas with Wilson in a Raiders uniform, saying ‘come and watch this guy play Mahomes and Justin Herbert’.
That’s how you sell tickets for your new football palace.
What about the other two suitors?
The Cowboys told their in-house NFL Network reporter Jane Slater that a trade was a ‘laughable’ proposition and came up with some nonsense about the Seahawks playing hardball over Earl Thomas (who the Cowboys opted not to sign as a free agent, twice) while usurping them for Jamal Adams.
To me it’s clear what’s going on here. The Cowboys have an idea what it’ll cost to acquire Wilson and they don’t think they’ll be able to compete with ultra-aggressive suitors. So it’s better to distance yourself now, in a somewhat emphatic way, to save face.
That doesn’t mean they can’t get involved down the line. Right now, however, I suspect Dallas thinks a trade would cost too much and therefore they’re more likely to see how Dak Prescott recovers from his injury, or look towards the draft (they have the 10th pick).
With the Saints, I can imagine their stance will be to ask the Seahawks what it would take to get a deal done. You look at their roster and make your play. New Orleans has to shift veteran contracts to repair their cap so they might be more willing to negotiate than many think. Plus, the chance to land Wilson and pair him with Sean Payton is NFL manna from heaven.
Here are my thoughts on what might be reasonable in a deal with the Bears, Raiders and Saints. I’m eliminating the Cowboys at this point.
And a quick reminder on the $39m dead cap hit attached to Wilson’s contract. A lot of people have determined this makes any trade a non-starter, or that a deal next year is more likely.
Here’s the reality. The Seahawks would still be paying Wilson $26m if they trade him next year. A $39m dead hit doesn’t mean adding $39m to your cap in 2021. It means adding $7m to what you are already on the hook for, taking the Seahawks to -$5m in available cap space. That’s more than 10 other teams in the league right now.
So yes, it’s inconvenient. But that’s the case next year too. And if you make the deal in 2021, you immediately free up $37m in 2022 cap space because Wilson’s contract comes off the books now. You get the headache out of the way. You have room in next years cap which you can borrow from.
In that scenario, it’s much easier to restructure Bobby Wagner’s contract or extend Carlos Dunlap and Tyler Lockett. If you wanted to sign Corey Linsley at center for $11m a year, you could give him a low year-one cap hit and pay him more in 2022.
This is the flexibility that comes with making $37m available in 2022.
There’s a distinct lack of open-mindedness about a trade this year, purely due to the $39m. Dig a little deeper and you realise it’s not quite the anchor dragging down the franchise as many are suggesting.
Chicago Bears
The starting point in all of these deals, as per Michael Silver, is three first round picks. That’s just to get the Seahawks to answer the phone. Securing a deal will be about how much you offer on top of that, relative to the other suitors.
I think it’s realistic for the Seahawks to expect at least one more pick. Especially given once a team acquires Wilson, they’ll pretty much be guaranteed a playoff appearance every year and any future first round picks will be in the 20’s or 30’s.
I’m going to make the draft compensation for all these proposals three first rounders and a second rounder. That’s not unreasonable given the Rams traded two firsts, a third and a player for Matt Stafford.
Most people will tell you that Khalil Mack is out of bounds in a trade. I disagree.
Yes, he has a dead cap hit of $37.4m.
As we’ve mentioned, Wilson’s dead cap hit is $39m.
So if the Seahawks are expected to pay $39m for Wilson to play in Chicago, the Bears should be expected to make a similar concession for Mack to play in Seattle.
And while no doubt people will mention how difficult this is in the current environment — a quick reminder that the Rams made the Stafford deal and are now $33m over the cap. The Saints are $70m over the cap. The Eagles are $43m over the cap, after trading Carson Wentz. So what does the cap even mean any more?
Wilson’s $37m salary is immediately wiped off Seattle’s books for 2022. For the Bears, they would free up $25m on their cap next year by moving Mack.
So that’s the deal that intrigues me. A chance to get a dynamic front four pass rush, acquire three first round picks and a second. You would need to identify a quarterback solution for 2021 but if you’re expecting the perfect deal in any of these situations, you’re not going to get it.
These proposals are based on a scenario where a trade becomes inevitable and the situation isn’t fixable. At that point it’s about getting the best deal.
Not getting a quarterback might be a good leverage point for the Seahawks to get even more out of the Bears.
Fans in Chicago might say this is too much. Would they prefer to watch another year of Trubisky?
Las Vegas Raiders
Again, the draft compensation starts at three firsts and a second. The Raiders have an advantage because they have two quarterbacks to dangle.
Derek Carr isn’t a perfect starting quarterback by any stretch. However, he has 26,896 passing yards in his career and 170 touchdowns.
When he arrived in Oakland in 2014 they were a 3-13 team. Within two years, he was leading them to a 12-4 season. He was a MVP candidate in 2016 before picking up an injury in the penultimate regular season game. Without that setback, the Raiders were among the favourites to make the Super Bowl in the AFC.
He’s had to deal with turnover of coaches, GM’s and roster upheaval. He’s had leading receivers traded away. It’s not been easy.
If you’re moving on from Wilson, you could do a lot worse than Carr.
Marcus Mariota is an alternative if you want to go in that direction instead.
The appealing thing here is you can start next season with a veteran quarterback. I would suggest creating a competition by drafting a QB and maybe adding another veteran. May the best man win. Always compete. Why not?
That alone might do it in terms of compensation. Personally, I’d still quite like to trade Jamal Adams to a team like the Dolphins or Browns. I don’t think he’s a great scheme fit in Seattle. I don’t think he’s worth $18-20m a year. I think the sack numbers are a mirage. I’d rather get what you can for him, then ask the Raiders to throw in Johnathan Abram — a similar safety at a much cheaper cost that the Seahawks seemingly coveted in the 2019 draft.
New Orleans Saints
If the Saints ask the Seahawks to ‘name their price’ — again the starting point is likely three firsts and a second.
Then it’s about shopping for veterans.
Legitimately, they could ask for Ryan Ramczyk. It would save the cap-strapped Saints $11m. You could even throw in Brandon Shell as a replacement (saving the Seahawks $3m).
They should ask for Cam Jordan. He probably wouldn’t be happy about it but it’d save the Saints another $2m this year and $19.7m next year.
You would acquire two quality starters, both in the trenches, and a bunch of draft picks.
Now, let’s get a little crazy.
What about Drew Brees?
He hasn’t retired yet. I have no idea whether one final season playing in a totally different city would appeal to him. However, he’s a highly motivated individual who has just seen Tom Brady win another Lombardi Trophy, playing for a new team.
Could you convince him to play one more season in Seattle?
Yes — he looked every bit a 42-year-old quarterback in 2020. However, the Seahawks will need at least a placeholder if Wilson is dealt.
Could he manage your offense? Can he get the ball to DK Metcalf? Can he provide a bridge to the future?
Yes on all three counts.
By acquiring Ramcyzk you would bookend Duane Brown. You could use the draft and free agency to fill out the interior O-line.
If he was willing to consider a swan song in Seattle, it would only cost the Seahawks his $1,075,000 base salary for 2021.
Yes, the Saints would have to eat his sizeable dead cap hit — but they’re set to do that anyway.
I have to admit — I think it’s an intriguing scenario. Maybe unlikely. I’m not sure Brees would really indulge this thought.
If you wanted to draft a quarterback this year, however, or just wanted to buy yourself 12 months at the position, it at least makes some sense.
I’m just trying to think outside of the box — because if the Seahawks do trade Wilson, they’ll need to do that too.
A final thought on these proposals. A lot of people claim three of these suitors are unrealistic because they don’t own a top-10 draft pick.
I don’t think this is a great year to pick in the top-10. I think this draft class is extremely rich in the 20-75 range. I would take four picks in that range over a top-10 pick every single day when it comes to this specific class.
So acquiring the #17, #20 or #28 pick doesn’t bother me as much as it otherwise would do. The fact is Wilson has a trade clause and if he doesn’t want to go to Miami or Carolina, it is what it is.
The idea of forcing him to stay in an unhappy marriage for a year would simply create mass-dysfunction for 12 more months before the inevitable happens anyway. If they can’t find a truce very quickly, both parties need to shake hands and go their separate ways. This can’t go on for much longer. A resolution is required, one way or another.
For much more on this subject, check out our new podcast:
You can now support Seahawks Draft Blog via Patreon by clicking the tab below.
Rob,
What does the preliminary QB draft class look like for next season? I think this will be a big factor of what the ultimate trade compensation looks like and who the team is. And also if Russell is ultimately traded. If Schneider doesn’t find his guy in this draft that to me means Vegas with a veteran Qb to offer would be the favorite. Schneider falls in love with a guy but knows he’s a top ten pick that favors another team. And if Schneider likes a QB more next year then the Bears with an insane offer becomes more possible.
Not good
That’s what I thought you had said. That, to me, means two things. Assuming Schneider agrees with your analysis, if they are going to trade Russell it’s going to be this year because they’ll need to draft a QB this year but don’t have any draft capital to do so. And if even if they did, what would happen if Seattle drafted a QB with Russell still on the roster?
Second, in order to get Pete to sign off on a trade, Schneider is going to have to show him a viable veteran option at QB to win now. So Chicago fans may think your above scenario is too much but they don’t have a chance in hell of getting Russell without an overwhelming offer.
Honestly, I don’t think Pete takes more than 5 seconds to approve a trade if it involves 3 firsts, a second and maybe a player or a few day 3’s. Pete, for all his stubbornness on scheme, is not an idiot. He jettisoned half his greatest defensive players when he felt his grip slipping. Peteball needs a game manager. It does not need an elite QB. Whether that is the right way is irrelevant. Pete’s mindset is the only thing relevant. Hell, they won SB48 when Russ was mostly a game manager.
I do, if Pete is convinced he can’t win in the next three years as much as if he kept Russell. This is it before he rides off into the sunset and he wants to make another run at a Super Bowl. What interest does he have in a reset where he’s rebuilding the team for the next coach? And the defense and roster is in a completely different place than SB48. Pete has to be convinced that any trade of Russell allows the Seahawks to win NOW.
I wouldn’t assume that Carroll thinks he will be retiring as soon as some think
He for sure has that personality trait that he would think he could coach forever. But I think there are two people who might decide for him. One is his wife. And the second one is the owner of the Seahawks even if it is someone hands off like Jody Allen. In three years, Pete will be the oldest coach in the history of the NFL. If the Seahawks don’t win in the next three years, you know what the narrative is going to be. And no owner, even a likely place holder like Jody Allen, will be able to ignore “the game has passed him by” talk.
Jodi Allen won’t fire or retire Pete and neither will his wife
If the Seahawks don’t win a playoff game in the next three years and they have 2 playoff wins in 7 seasons with someone who would be at that moment the oldest head coach in the history of the NFL, you don’t think Jody Allen fires Pete Carroll or arranges for him to “resign?”
Nope, I don’t
Jodi Allen is not firing Carroll
She isn’t doing anything
Vulcan are waiting for the opportunity to go through with a sale, which is expected in the next few years. That’s it.
(weeping and gnashing of teeth)
I completely agree that he wants to win now. But, I look at the current roster and realize that having that many picks, that much cap space in 2022, and one more year of experience for a few of the rookies is not such a bad situation for a serious run in the next few years. Of course that means they need a reliable QB who doesn’t turn the ball over much.
If Russ’s team comes out with another not so subtle stance, like the list of acceptable teams, then I believe he tells John to start returning calls, immediately.
Wait…you think the Seahawks are positioned to make a serious run without RW? Or am I reading this wrong…because I think without RW, this is a bottom 8 team.
No. They aren’t making a run in 2021. However, given that much cap space, that many picks and a current foundation of several core players, why not? It all comes down to who they pick, acquire and extend. The belief that they will never compete without Wilson is only applicable for 2021, to me.
What core players? We will have a below average offense paired with an average-below average defense.
Our best pass rusher is 33 and good chance not on the roster in a couple months.
A LT on the verge of retirement.
An aging MLB.
A soon to be $18M blitzing safety who can’t cover.
A WR who will force his way out of RW is gone.
And a has been head coach who has pissed off every great talent that has played for him.
I don’t see it…at all.
So DK stated he is leaving? I hadn’t read that.
Roy – no he hasn’t explicitly stated that, but not sure if you watched the second half of the year and subsequent media bits with DK basically blaming Pete for the offense.
Do you honestly think DK is going to sit by and watch his close friend/QB get dealt while he goes back to 60 catches for 800 yards? With no RW – he will absolutely force his way out.
All you have pointed out is that a passionate player was dissatisfied with the 2nd half of a season where his close friend played poorly and tried to force the ball to him, which was disastrous, at times. Pick-6 disastrous. Are we even sure that sideline tantrum didn’t have a little bit of angst going in Russ’s direction?
DK is a grown man who understands his own leverage. He knows he has little besides holding out and not getting paid. He knows he could be shipped off to the highest bidding dumpster fire for a good draft haul. He is not ignorant of the situation. Stating that he will force his way out gives the impression that the guy who so many teams passed has not become his own man. That’s a disservice to him. He doesn’t need Russ to be great. He doesn’t need a close friend to be his QB. In fact, name any good QB/receiver duos who are? Practically none.
My first choice in all of this is for Pete Carroll to finally wake up and realize just exactly what the hell he’s about to do and change his offensive approach to better suit more letting Russ cook. Since there’s pretty much zero chance of that happening, for me, the Raiders scenario is the one I want if Carr comes to Seattle and knowing Chucky, he does. You get a proven starting level NFL QB and plenty of draft capital to work with. Doesn’t mean Fossil Pete will use it properly but one can always dream. Would also love to get Abram after a trade of Adams but man I just don’t see stubborn Pete trading 52nd ranked myself.
That’s my “what’s best for the Seahawks to remain competitive” scenario. My spiteful, “prove Pete Carroll screwed up” scenario is Russ getting traded to New Orleans where I have said for years he would thrive under Payton. The guy has a short QB already and the o-line and offensive system/play calling to compliment that. Throw in the fact that Russ has arm strength way beyond what Drew had even in his prime and I believe you have a recipe for a Super Bowl win or three.
I’m with you on the Raiders scenario. Carr and Abram or Carr and Jacobs……plus picks.
Rob,
If you factor in the players coming over in these various trade scenarios (i.e., Mack, or Carr, or Ramczyk, etc.), and making the very large assumption that Pete and John do not restructure to tap into 2022 cap room…how much cap in 2021 would they have to shed, to make this work? I’m wondering if trading Adams alone would be enough to get there.
I could be wrong, but my sense is that John has largely avoided restructuring with future cap dollars. Then again, this would be as transformational move as there has ever been for an NFL franchise in the salary cap era.
My preference would be the Bears, since Mack could transform the pass rush. However, the Raiders is the only option among the three where if you ended draft day without a rookie QB, it wouldn’t necessarily be a crisis. Even if you get Brees, that’s a one-year stopgap, right?
Oh dear…
https://www.espn.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/314410/cut-carlos-dunlap-restructure-bobby-wagner-how-seahawks-can-create-cap-room
A plan like this is why the Seahawks are not a contender.
Sure, pay the blitzing safety $18m. Give Bobby Wagner a $26m cap hit in 2022.
But make sure, for the third year in a row, to get rid of the best pass rusher on the roster. That’s worked a treat.
I might remind folks…………..the blitzing Safety that missed 1/4 of the team’s games last season and was nearly completely ineffective in at least 2 others due to injury. Great plan Brady.
Michael David Smith is also stating the same type of move with regard to Dunlap.
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/02/27/seahawks-may-not-be-willing-to-keep-carlos-dunlap-on-his-current-contract/
I realize this is a tough year coming up for some of these veteran players but playing Russian roulette with these guys is not a good way to do business in the long run. Don’t let chance enter the scenario and just extend the man to a reasonable contract and take the salary hit. This playing with the credit card will come back and bite you…you eventually have to pay the bill.
He just linked to the ESPN piece
I have 0 idea why so many put cutting Dunlap & trading Reed as 2 of the most popular ways to help our cap space. We rely on pressure from our front 4, so sure get rid of 2 of our better DL players.
To me keeping Reed and Dunlap should be priorities, then add to them.
Adams and Wagner are best ways to create cap and improve team. Just seems like no one outside of SDB can recognize it.
Because there seems to be a rule in the Seattle media that you can’t ever, ever talk about Adams or Wagner.
Here are the rules:
1. Never contemplate that anything other than an Adams extension is viable
2. Bobby Wagner is untouchable and we must ask Pete Carroll what makes him so good 5-6 times per season
3. The last two years of losing your best pass rusher didn’t lead to any issues at all so why not do it again? Yes, let’s do it again
4. Some of you may also want to dismiss the Russell Wilson saga because it’s easier to do than actually working to understand what the hell is going on
5. If you have a breakfast show on the radio, it’s probably best to shout at people for daring to criticise the 12-4 titans of the north west. Probably best to tell Carroll you find him really inspiring a good 3-4 times too
6. Never mention how many free agents the team has, the lack of picks, the lack of money. Once that Adams contract is delivered, everything will fall into place
One problem I see with asking for an elite veteran player in return, is that normally the other team would expect draft picks. So the three first rounders will be whittled down to two first rounders for Russ plus the veteran player trade. It would still be worth it to get Mack or Marriota.
No they won’t be whittled down
Because teams are buying a franchise QB
There’s no whittling down
Maybe a life after RW was anticipated and Waldron was hired because the Rams were able to be successful while scheming around a mediocre QB.
Rob – In total agreement that it’s time to move on. This is beyond repair and we have the ability to exploit teams. So here’s my proposal:
Chicago gets RW
Seattle gets 3 First Rounders + 3rd Rounder + Khalil Mack
Here’s where I take it a step further…
You turn around and flip Khalil Mack for another 1st + 3rd
You trade Jamal Adams for a 1st + 3rd
You keep Bobby Wagner to not make it look like a complete blowup and you maintain leadership
If RW is gone in 2021 – the season is lost. I hate to say it, but it’s a lost year. So my idea is to just have a really painful 2021 but build an absolute gold mine of draft capital and future cap space. I LoVE Khalil Mack…but he is 30 years old and I think the value for him is really for 2-3 years, in which this team will not be in any real contention.
So rip the band aid off and commit to an actual rebuild. If Pete wants to coach for another 4-5 years; he has plenty of time to give it one last go in the style he wants to play with the resources *properly* allocated.
Won’t happen…but I’d rather have a year of real pain over a couple years of trying to figure it out.
^ this puts me in draft heaven!
Only problem with this scenario is the Jets get a likely top 5 pick due to the overpay for the 52nd ranked safety. Obviously that can’t be the reason not to do something like this, but it would still grind my gears.
It is called tanking for prospects
I’m merely suggesting a “let’s just take a bullet to the head” over “let’s get stabbed 100 times and slowly bleed out.”
This team is not close to a Super Bowl with Russell Wilson…it’s terrible without him. Just get on with the pain and have a miserable season over bleeding out for years and years.
The Seattle Mariners actually have a chance win coming years because they decided to just blow it up. I’d like to see the Seahawks do that if RW is no longer with the team.
Who would take Mack for a 1st and 3rd if you say his value is only for 2 or 3 years?
An actual Super Bowl contender would gladly part with a late 1st and 3rd if they needed pass rush to get over the hump.
I’m not talking about the Jets or Bengals giving up their picks. Think Green Bay or Tampa Bay or KC or Buffalo.
Khalil Mack could transform the pass rush. If we manage to land him, plus a bunch of 1st rounders, then if you want more picks, I’d say trade out of the Bears’ obtained 1st rounder and go from there.
He’s transform the pass rush on a team that won’t be winning anything anytime soon. That’s the only reason I suggest it + the fact he’s 30 years old.
If he was 27, I’d say you keep him and build. He’ll be 33 by the time this team is competitive.
I like this scenario, but I wonder if we could get the same deal from WFT (I know they weren’t in the list Wilson’s agent published, but he’s from Richmond and if he wants to return a former great team to glory, I’m not sure how much better of an opportunity there is, esp w/ Bezos kicking the tires on buying interest in the team) and get Chase Young in the deal.
I live in the DC area and local media is saying basically that WFT would go all in if they thought they could get Wilson…
Gale Gilbert, Jeff Kemp, Kelly Stouffer, Dan McGwire, Rick Mirer, John Friesz, Jon Kitna, Bruck Huard, Trent “what’s a” Dilfer, Glenn Foley, Bruce Mathison, and old man Warren Moon.
When you start getting excited about all Wilson would fetch in a trade and you’re saying the Seahawks could get a bum like Marcus Mariotta to replace him… what you are asking for is really someone from the above category of bum QBs in the history of this franchise. Be careful what you wish for.
All those guys played with players like Cortez Kennedy, Walter Jones, Kenny Easley, Curt Warner, Steve Largent, Kevin Mawae, Steve Hutchinson, and so on it’s not like the Seahawks have always been void of talent. But a franchise QB is something special.
I’m only okay with trading Russ if they could get a competent QB in return. Derek Carr to me is like Matt Hasselbeck. Not a guy who is elite, but a guy who is definitely good enough provided the talent around him is good (which is more than can be said of guys like Trubinsky, Mariotta…).
This is a really sick time to be a Seahawks fan:(
Agree 100% with this entire post.
Like I said above, Carr and plenty of draft capital in return offers the Hawks a chance to stay competitive. But oh, the dickhead in me that thinks Carroll is totally effing up this franchise wants to see Russ go to NO and win a couple Super Bowls under Sean Payton (and I think he would).
Agree completely with this post. Why do you think trading a top 3 franchise QB in his prime has never been done successfully in NFL history. Why? Because it is bad business. If the situation is not sustainable – get ready for a lot of high draft picks because we will be competing with the other QB starved losers. The draft fans will have a lot of fun. Can’t believe that rational human beings can’t see that this will be bad for both Wilson and the Hawks. Also if a deal has to be made why trade RW to the Bears in our conference? Nobody wants to face RW once or twice each year or have to get by him in the conference title game to get back to the SB. The logical and only choice is the Raiders IMO.
1. Well in fairness, how many QB’s like Wilson have ever been traded?
2. The reason you’d trade to the Bears is because they make the best offer
This team won’t have to worry about facing RW in the playoffs, anytime soon. And it’s clear that said QB doesn’t want to play for our head coach – so agreed, it’s not ideal in any way but the marriage is over.
I certainly understand why you wouldn’t trade him within the division, but I think the fear of trading him within the conference is overblown. I wouldn’t hesitate if the best offer came from any NFC team not in the NFC West.
Whilst trading a franchise QB is hardly ideal, I doesnt mean you’re guaranteed years of QB purgatory like what you mention. Lots of teams have had several great Quarterbacks in their past.
The 3 QBs in the top 3 rounds we know Seattle has shown interest in are Russ, Mahomes and Josh Allen. I know it sucks but I’m willing to look on the bright side.
Maybe Schneider can draft Brian Brohm in the second round again or sign Tarvaris Jackson.
Enjoyed the longish podcast last night, especially with the whimsy stuff thrown in.
The “what does the cap really mean anymore….” is a valid question. It wouldn’t surprise me if the league, in it’s desire to not lose anymore fan loyalty ground than it already has, employees either a wink-wink enforcement reprieve, or an openly announced “variance” allowance since so many teams are in or near “cap hell”. Dress it up in some “gee, this Covid stuff was unexpected, and while we’re serious about the cap we think it’s in the best interest blah blah blah……….”. We’ll see, but there might be some wiggle room coming there.
Like Robbie I’d rather a deal be done with an AFC team, meaning the Raiders or some other option that might be added to RW’s list of allowables. But yes, the auction fever scenario requires two motivated potential buyers to get the bidding rolling fast and furious. I really like the Raiders potentials if it plays out the way it’s discussed.
The Brees idea is a reach but fun to think of. How about a cheap veteran from another direction; Cam Newton! NO……….I’m kidding, just stirring the pot a bit. He’d only cost what he’s worth though.
While I don’t disagree with the thoughts about the folks shooting for a top 10 draft pick in trade, it might be fun to watch JS put on his plaid jacket and suede shoes to go wheelin’ and dealin’ to turn that one into a bunch down the line in your sweet range. If they moved wisely they could build a nice, younger, talented, affordable roster. I think there’s a bit too much Pete-hate going on, maybe a momentum thing along with the ageist mentality of younger fans. He has earned some skepticism, and has not done well post season for sure, but look at how many other coaches have gone bye the wayside during his tenure even when they’ve had better talent, at least on paper, than he. That’s not excuse making, just saying that he’s not as bad as some popular memes these days would indicate.
I couldn’t figure out what was going on with Russ in the 2nd half of the season. The dude just seemed different on the side lines and even in press conferences. He did not seem like the unflappable, upbeat Russ that we are always used to seeing. Especially on the sideline during the playoff game where Russ just seemed stoic as opposed to trying to pump his teammates up and showing them he had no doubt they would win (like in so many of our late game winners in the 1st half of the season).
I remember people wondering if he was concussed. I personally just thought all of the MVP attention was making him overbook himself with podcasts, media and then not to mention a new born. Now the story of discontent and him storming out of a meeting makes so much more sense. Russ legitimately was pouting and just going through the motions as opposed to being all in. I think there is a chance that Russ is just done with Pete. It has happened with other players on our team in the past.
I don’t want to see a trade. I remember what life was like as a Hawks fan before Russell. But I also don’t want to see another season of Russ the way he was at the end of last year. I’m not sure if some magic can happen and the dead cap can be reduced some how, but a divorce might be better this year instead of pushing off the inevitable one more year when the compensation will no doubt be worse. Only teams I see that make sense for us are the Jets or Dolphins. This is going to be interesting..
“I think there is a chance that Russ is just done with Pete. It has happened with other players on our team in the past”
My opinion is that it’s more than just a chance. it’s a fact.
The other side of your coin as it concerns Pete is that Russell Wilson has propped him and this team up for the last several years at least. I have a strong suspicion we’re about to find out if this is indeed true or not.
I completely agree with your thoughts on Russ Dutchenstein, very well said! I to think Russ is just done with Pete and wants to move on. And Big Mike, I share your opinion that Russ has has propped Pete and the Hawks up for the last several years. I think Pete deserves to find out the teams success is not all about him!
I just don’t see a happy ending here…
Thanks Al! Honestly it was a bit of a revelation for myself. Last season really bugged me. The worst part is of course local media didn’t even come close to looking into it. Russ is in for a rude awakening from media in other cities…
From time to time you and I are in accord, but on that comment my push back would be that pro football really is a team sport. As significant a talent as one player might be, and RW is significant, it’s still 11 v 11 and one guy ain’t enough. To drag in another metaphor, we might be looking at a two way street deal here. The relationship just might have reached a significant level of stale (ya think?). A change in team/scenery might be just what Russ needs, he sure seems to think so even though he’s playing that silly passive/aggressive game. But the same could be said for Pete. For all that many fans have jumped on the “he’s washed up” bandwagon, the challenge of showing he can still take an underrated qb (such as he once did with Russ) and build a total team to get the job done on every level (as I’ve stated many time before I’m a bit concerned about his coaching staff though) just might build an effective fire. Look at what’s happened in SB teams of recent years. Philly with Foles, SF with Jimmy G., Rams with Goff; none of them qbs of Russ caliber, but they got in the Big One because they were well balanced teams with effective coaching. That would be my challenge for Pete………….can he still do it? I would say it’s low percentage possibility, but with his history/record it’s more possible than for most other head coaches.
Fair point about teams that have made the Super Bowl with QBs less than Russ. My counter to your counter is that those teams had a talent level well beyond what Seattle has outside of Russ. I can’t prove that’s the case, and it is possible with a bunch of draft picks that Pete hits on most and rebuilds this into a Super Bowl contender with a less than elite QB. However, his track record in recent years does not at all suggest he’ll be able to pull it off, both in terms of the draft capital more wasted than not and the other moves like the trade for Adams, FA signings, etc.
One thing’s for sure, we’re about to see over the next couple of years if what you believe is “low percentage” comes to fruition. You believe there’s a chance even a remote one, I do not. One way or the other, it’ll be damned interesting.
The supposed ancient Chinese curse; May you live in interesting times.
😀
Well met, Uncle Bob. On so, so many levels, these are surely ‘the Most interesting of times’.
I can’t see any reason the ancient Chinese maxim shouldn’t apply to the microcosm that is Hawk Ball. As above, so below. 🙄
Uncle Bob I agree with much of this. While Pete and Russ winning again together, with Bobby and KJ, would be an icing on the cake, as well as putting them all into a stratosphere of truly elite in the history of the NFL, it is a two way street. Six years of lackluster success. Why should things suddenly change now, why would Pete and Russ suddenly win another Super Bowl this next season? It’s hard to say they will. The roster is all over the place, unproven youth, over priced veterans, a qb who is expensive, etc. Trading Russ allows Pete the opportunity to rebuild in the next two – three years with a qb who is cheap and looking to prove something. Excess cap space (without Russell’s contract) allows for money to spent in the trenches and perhaps a real feature back. Call me optimistic, I see opportunity rather than crisis. And challenges can be very stimulating.
“For all that many fans have jumped on the “he’s washed up” bandwagon …”
For the record, I am not jumping on that bandwagon, I’m driving it. And I’ve been on it for five years. The game passing him by is not a new development.
“I would say it’s low percentage possibility, but with his history/record it’s more possible than for most other head coaches.”
I would say that the opposite of this statement is true, and that the only way Positive Pete ever gets near another Super Bowl is if he buys a ticket.
I have seen Carr, Waller, 3 firsts and a couple of day 2’s proposed by a few more people. Gruden has almost complete control and, as you pointed out Rob, they need to fill that expensive stadium next year. Who knows what happens when Gruden’s ego gets into a bidding war with Nagy and Pace. Maybe 4 firsts, a QB and some day 2 and 3’s? Not unrealistic in the NFL where, as a coach, your current year of employment is your only year of employment, unless you win, no matter your contract.
You’re not getting Waller
Waller would be the jewel in the crown. Taking Carr, three firsts and a couple of mid-rounds let Seattle rebuild this year with a bit of sense. Trading back in the draft for more capital to get 8 o 9 picks (having several ones in 2-3 rounds) and extend Adams. KJ Wright must play elsewhere because Seahawks cannot afford another LB contract and Barton and Brooks should step forward. If Lockett is tradeable for draft picks, we need as much money as we can to pay key positions most difficult to find viable starters via draft: proven OL, another DE (Dunlap changed our defensive performance last season and may act as a valuable veteran with Darrell Taylor and Alton Robinson there, but at the right price), etc. Even Diggs could be traded if Blair recover goes well.
1. The one player the Raiders won’t deal is Darren Waller. He would be out of bounds and rightly so.
2. I don’t see any scenario where extending Jamal Adams is a good idea. Simply because he is not worth $18-20m and I don’t think he’s a good fit. Whether you have Russell Wilson or not, you need to invest the really big money in the right guys. You can make better use of his salary and the picks you’d get back for him.
3. I don’t get all this ‘trade Lockett’ stuff. He’s been a fantastic servant to the Seahawks and is really good. He’s a player you keep hold of and extend.
4. Ditto Quandre Diggs. This isn’t a fire sale.
Wellllll, Gruden has I believe 6 (maybe it’s 5) years left on a 10 year contract and Mark Davis is the most cash strapped owner in the NFL. He ain’t goin’ anywhere and is in no danger and he knows it.
That said, he LOVES Wilson and has since pre-2012 draft and doesn’t like Carr and never has. That alone could spur him to do what you suggest is possible.
I’m a little concerned that people are discounting the value of a Khalil Mack coming to Seattle in a trade.
He’s not some feeble old man in the twilight of his career. He’s 30.
He’s been incredibly durable. He’s only missed 2 games in his NFL career. He regularly averages 80% or more of his teams’ snaps.
And productive? Forget about it. He sacks, pressures, QB hits, forces fumbles and gets TFL like a ravenous beast.
He would instantly be the best pass rusher the Seahawks have had in years. They could pair him with Dunlap and Reed and terrorize QBs every single week. The linebackers could actually lineback instead of blitzing. Imagine Bobby Wagner and Jordyn Brooks playing behind that line. You can send Jamal Adams packing and spend those picks building your offense up.
He’s too expensive?
Nope.
His pay if the Hawks acquire him
2021 $17m (all guaranteed)
2022 $17.5m (zero guaranteed – zero!)
2023 $22.7m (zero guaranteed)
2024 $23m (zero guaranteed)
You’d be paying him just outside the top 15 yearly average of pass rushers – completely acceptable. If he does decline, after 2021 you have every option – trade with zero dead cap, rework his deal, lower his deal, or cut him loose.
Of the 4 teams he might be the best player you can get back in return.
I’m on board.
(side note Rob – his dead cap w chicago is only $21.4 in a pre-June 1 trade and Chicago would save $5m – easier to swallow for them)
Great info for the discussion. It brings up a whole new avenue for wringing more out of the Raiders possible bid. Telling them Chicago threw in Mack might take Gruden to a new level of desperation.
With zero guaranteed dollars in 2022-24, you also have the option to convert about $14-15m of his salary to bonus to make the 2021 cap hit nearly neutral.
“Welcome to Seattle Khalil, here’s a check for $14m. Now go out there and unleash some hell” would sound pretty good to him.
You just made Clint Hurtt the happiest man in the world.
I merely suggested flipping him because this team won’t be competitive for several years and I think you maximize his trade value now. Not to mention, I almost see it as a professional courtesy to a great player.
He will hate playing in Seattle on a rebuilding team for a stubborn old coach who should be sipping mai tais on a beach somewhere.
There are a metric ton of assumptions in that post.
This. 100% agree. He’d be transformative on the D. All of the nonsense with Adams to manufacture pressure – it’s unnecessary now.
The downside is, you’re putting more pressure on John to get some QB talent in the draft. You could get Foles as a stop-gap, maybe, as part of the consideration, but maybe that means fewer picks too. Or don’t include Foles, and you know that you HAVE to exit the draft with a rookie QB on the roster – and everyone else knows it too. You might have to trade back up to get a guy you want. However if it means I get Mack…I’ll roll the dice I think.
He’s 30 years old so it is a good question how long he will play at an elite level. But for now he is, according to his elite 92.3 PFF grade for 2020. I have to admit it is intriguing to pair him with Dunlap to flank Reed and Poona. That would be a fearsome foursome.
I love the idea of beng able to pair Mack with Dunlap. And if we are going down the pseculation road then how about this. We do some sort of trade with the Bears that involves Mack & Wilson swapping teams. Then we pay Adams* & use him to blitz on every frickin’ down. It could be** a terrible disaster but if it comes off it would spectacular. With teams having to look after Mack & Dunlap, Adams’ sack numbers would go off the charts!
I actually think doing a deal with the Saints is the more likely outcome, if any. They’ve got previous when it comes to unlikely trade business!
* Like Rob, I don’t think Adams fits well into the Seattle scheme & I prefer my safeties to be good in coverage as a first priority. But what if, eh?
** OK, it will be.
“They could pair him with Dunlap and Reed…..”
Well IF they don’t cut Dunlap as 2 people this morning have suggested the team do. 🙂
We will finally have that great pass rush to pair with a terrible offense. Pete and John are just awesome.
Don’t need Dunlap. Got Jamal Adams and Darrell Taylor.
You forgot to turn the sarcasm filter on Rob. 😉
Someone that’s way smarter than me needs to invent a sarcasm fnt that’s universally recognized as such.
*font*
I get it Rob. But you really feel Seattle should just pay Dunlap over 14 million bucks guaranteed next year? Ive got a few reasons I think they shouldnt do that:
1) Hes lost his speed. It was evident he’s lost a step, especially in his last 3 games last year. He relies on brute strength and technique to get pressures and sacks, and is not a steady threat. He’s streaky.
2) What if he gets hurt–like Irvin? Then youre absolutely done. We’re gonna count on Dunlap holding up all year to the tune of 14 million bucks?
3) What if he loses yet another step during the season? Again, 14 million guaranteed that he plays at a high level all year.
Theres too much of a chance he’s Ziggy Ansah waiting to happen for A LOT more money.
I think Seattle absolutely HAS to try to renegotiate, and if he wont, they have to cut him. Then you can see what the market bears. There is no way in my mind a contender offers Dunlap 14 million a year or even close to it…
Anyone can get hurt.
I didn’t see a loss of speed. He’s never been a speed rusher, he’s always been a bigger pass rusher.
What if he loses another step? What if he doesn’t and you cut him and he goes somewhere else?
The comp to Ziggy Ansah is just bizarre and not remotely fair.
It’s fine if you want to cut him. You don’t have any right to complain though if the pass rush sucks for the third year in a row.
Anyone can get hurt, but aging players get hurt at a higher rate–thus Seattle’s past reluctance to guarantee 2 years of salary to guys like Chancellor.
Cincy certainly thought he’d lost a step, they werent even playing him. Although his play in Seattle made that decision look pretty spotty at best…
I dont see the comp to Ansah as bizarre, but ok. Dunlap hasnt had the serious injury that Ansah had, but he was hurting and injured last year, and it affected his play for a few weeks. And that was in half a season. He’s similar in that IMO he has lost speed and has only brute strength and technique, as I said. However, he’s faster than poor Ansah, and has better technique. And he is amazingly strong for his size…
I dont see how I wouldnt have the right to complain if they cut him and the pass rush stinks; the pass rush may stink anyhow, especially if he loses a step and/or gets hurt, which both are fairly likely. I would still have the right to complain, because its horridly inept draft strategy and free agency moves for YEARS that have led us to this place. Dunlap isnt the difference in going to the SB or not, so why overpay him?
I fully get it: he was a big part of our defense going from the worst in the history of defense to pretty decent. Make no mistake, I want Dunlap on this team badly. But i really hesitate to pay 14 million bucks to him at this point.
But then again, if they trade Russ, Im not watching Carrol butcher this team and run it into the ground. I have zero faith he makes good on more than 1 of 3 first round picks he might conceivably get for RW. Seattle’s history with picks says they will fail to replace RW or improve the team enough to make up for losing him. They havent had a really good draft since 2012. Thats a lot of bad drafting. So if they trade him, fine, pay Dunlap 20 million because it wont mean a damned thing.
So you’re getting rid of the teams best pass rusher because he’s 32 and ‘some older players get hurt’.
Should probably just get rid of Duane Brown too. Old git.
Come on. That is not why he wasn’t playing in Cincy.
It’s a completely different situation and not a relevant comp at all.
You want to get rid of the best pass rusher because he’s 32
I don’t want to pay him 14 million bucks, partly because he’s 32.
No, I don’t want them to get rid of him: but he’s not worth 14 million per year. They need to negotiate a better deal, and if that means releasing him so he can test the market, then so be it. Like Chris Carson, he may find his market cooler than he expects.
It’s very worrisome they have no depth behind Brown. He’s Methuselah if the Oline, ready to drop any moment: but they got nothing behind him and he’s a relative bargain at his position, based on his level of play.
Wagner, Irvin, and Wright are also tough calls that need to be made, one way or another.
Odds are more than one will break down, leaving us exactly where?
His contract is marginally higher than Stephon Tuitt’s and Brandon Graham’s.
That’s the price of a good pass rusher STTBM.
He’s not as good as those guys, and I believe he’s older too. But I agree, a good pass rusher is costly. And necessary. This negotiation will be delicate–if Wilson stays. Everything changes if Russ bails and forces a trade.
A couple years without a franchise QB is normally enough to build a super bowl rooster minus the QB, but with the Addams trade ( a direct response to RW asking for superstars) we are in a no mans land of missing the draft capital to pull off a quick rebuild. Yes, it’s 💯 RW fault, as was losing the legion of boom, losing the Super Bowl to the Pats, and leaving the playoffs round one every year, but how long are we going to let one players ego push the Hawks into stupid short term decisions? I really don’t give a crap what RW has to say about any subject, have immediately turned of any interview with him for years as I’ve always seen him as a cancer overall to the team. Not saying he’s a bad QB, just that the other stuff with Wilson is more detrimental than the perks. He wants the biggest contract, he want the most media attention, he want the team to be built around making him look good and not Championships ball. The team went 7-1 after Pete took back over, (somewhere in the middle of this he storms out of a meeting because the team started looking like winners instead instead of being dedicated to the glory of Wilson) and if it wasn’t for Wilson performance had a shot at doing quite well in the playoffs. He want to compare himself to Mahomes because the chief where down 4-5 of there starting o line and played the bucs who have a stacked D line? The fact is an upgrade at center and left guard after the Rams game was absolutely obvious after the Rams game and was going to be a top priority bye the front office, he can pretend his comments have something to do with the fact that the Oline is under a major rebuild that started last year and is only a player or two away from being complete has anything to do with his usual games with the media. It’s really easy to me, tell Wilson to shit the hell up, and we can trade him in a year or two if he doesn’t mess up his market value, get a rookie like Leatherwood at left guard in the draft, trade Wagner for draft capital and cap space, resign Dunlap, take offers for Addams, check the market for DK who is dramatically overrated. Don’t sign any big names in free agency, get your cap situation under control while having Wilson at the helm for the next year or two while a rebuild happens and replace him with someone like a Mond once you have build a rooster that can play Pete ball. I have far more hope PC has a Super Bowl left in him than Wilson even if it’s a couple rough years cleaning up RW mess. He earned the mess, he can shut the hell up for 35 million a year and deal while the Hawks doing what’s right for the Hawks. I don’t care, he’s hurt the team enough he can play a couple years as unhappy as he wants and won’t be shedding any tears for him. If he want to get rid of his no trade clause, okay ship him to the Jets for 3 first and Donald this year and be ahead of the rebuild.
[Insert Jackie Chan confused face]
You need to step back, and re-evaluate your unfounded assumption that the Jamal Adams trade has anything to do with Russell Wilson…
The whole thing with Russ wanting to leave is that he feels they don’t listen to his input…who in their right mind (besides PC) makes that Jamal Adams trade. Noone. Everyone’s baffled. The same way we were baffled by Penny, McDowell, and Taylor. The same way we were baffled by the stupidest super bowl call ever. We get it, you’re a bit upset about the Russell Wilson situation. Well that’s just professional sports man.
Russ is outgrowing his first team. It happens. I never expected him to finish here after 2014. Damn near every member of the Superbowl squads has left with the same feeling, they’d rather not play for Pete. The drum that Sherm was beating back then about being exhausted by Pete’s rah-rah, is the same one Russ is beating now.
The three players you picked to be confused about are all guys that got bitten bye the injury bug, seems like a bit cheap on guys that never got to prove what they can do, or at least haven’t yet. Russ petition for superstars, the Hawks got him a superstar mortgaging way to much of the future in the process. It’s not a massive leap of imagination to see the two as related. As far as the number of stars that left, it seemed a lot more like they didn’t like Wilson, ( Baldwin, Sherm, Lynch, Tate) or where too expensive to keep around while carrying his contracts. Thomas and Bennett are just kinda loose cannons. Looking forward to a tell all book someday to finally really know. I played 14 years of football, and would have had a really hard time with him as a teammate. I totally respect people who think RW is a good player, teammate and blame Pete, but as a old school football guys it’s seems more the affect of stardom and pandering to the QB position affecting media options. Can you imagine what an RW interview would do for the popularity and financial capability of this web site? Then again, I see this as an opportunity to cash in when the value is at its highest for a player I don’t think is that good, before it’s common knowledge. Defense still wins championships, and offense still sells tickets and gets regular season wins especially since the most recent CBA.
Almost nobody left the team because of Pete. Lynch retired, almost certainly so he could play with his hometown Raiders. Baldwin, Avril, Chancellor – all retired. Earl – after the last two years, who knows what was in his head? Sherman offered the Hawks the opportunity to match the offer from the 49ers, and I believe Tate did the same. Bennett, sure, there’s a definite burnout.
RW a “cancer?”
How did RW lead to losing the Legion of Boom? Nonsense.
Did Russ give up 10 4th quarter points to the Pats? Oh, and I forgot that he got us back into a position to win it, only to have the sideline make a boneheaded and obvious call. Yup, that’s all on RW.
And amongst your inaccuracies, the team went 7-3 not 7-1 after the Cardinal’s game.
Oh, and of course you think DK is overrated. I wish you had stated that in your first paragraph so I wouldn’t have wasted my time trying to decipher your screed. For someone who “played 14 years of football,” your judgement seems way off the mark.
(Oh, and please learn how to create paragraphs.)
I think I prefer the Chicago scenario but if Oakland got Carolina interested in Carr… more prime picks for Vegas to send with Mariota.
Hey Rob,
Call into the Clayton show today.
That’ll be fun.
.
If Stafford gets you 2 1st’s, a 3rd and a starting QB, what is Carr’s value? Comparable? More?
Well, you’re absolutely right that we should all hope for a huge bidding war amongst these teams if this marriage is beyond repair.
Personally I prefer the trade with the Raiders, but I don’t think they absolutely have to get Carr back as part of the trade. Yes, they will need a QB, but I’m not convinced Carr is the answer. Isn’t that why the Raiders make the trade in the first place? Maybe he’s only a short-term placeholder while they search for a longer term solution, but I would rather have Jacobs. He can certainly replace Carson, and then some.
The Saints situation is intriguing though, as they have some very good players they could send back in any trade. They can’t afford all of them anyway, so this might be a convenient way to shed their salaries.
I’m still holding out some hope that Pete and John figure out how to make this right with Russ, but definitely losing confidence in that idea as time passes.
It will be fun to follow this story anyway! Nice job!
Not going to name names here…but some of you guys need to realize that this team was not an actual Super Bowl contender WITH RW. If RW forces his way out – y’all need to be prepared for some terrible seasons. Pete is not going to rebuild – he’s going to patch together an even bigger mess than he has on his hands now.
This team is not close. And you know what will happen when RW leaves? Duane Brown will be more inclined to retire and DK will absolutely force his way out. So now, you’re going to have to find a QB, LT, and a bonafide WR on top of not having a DE and CB on defense.
What is this team building around if RW leaves? Jordyn Brooks and Jamal Adams? The NFC West will crush us – you’re going to lose at least 4 games in division.
You act like we’ve never had bad QB seasons. 1983-2000, 2008, 2011, and ALMOST 2012 (when it looked like Matt Flynn was getting the keys). That’s a part of the game. Will quality of play go down at QB (YES). Do I want a QB who hates it here, doesn’t want to play (NO). Do I want our team to keep paying 30+ million to a QB they don’t use properly? (HELL NO).
The Russ era imho, was only ever going to end like this given the enormity of Pete’s ego, and single mindedness of both men adhering to his own trajectory.
Also…this is Seattle area sports. Unless you’re a Sounders fan, disappointment comes with the condiments.
You are reading way too much between the lines on my post here. I don’t disagree with really anything you’re saying. Yes, this franchise has seen dark days, but this is FAR different than struggling to find a QB. This is about an egomaniacal coach running a QB out of town with his actions. His OC left because of him. Our best players in the past have turned on him and left.
Pete has ruined this thing – the fact that anybody defends his awfulness over the last 4-5 years is beyond me.. This is only going to get worse, is my warning.
What do you build around with this team? DK, Brooks, Poona, Lewis? Other than those four, everyone else is either too damn old, or replacement quality. We have no picks, no cap money, so it’s going to be hard to elevate the team skill level, especially if RW is traded, or heaven forbid he gets hurt.
Sadly suspect you’re right Matt. The only young building block type players left will be Damien Lewis and Brooks.
I really like Damien Lewis – but he’s a good Guard. He’s not Quentin Nelson, nor will he ever be.
I like Brooks but he is a LB who if we are lucky becomes 80% of what Bobby was.
That is flat out scary…your core is a non-pass rushing, “potentially good” LB and a very good RG. Maybe throw in an unGodly expensive blitzing SS who can’t cover.
I don’t count DK because he will absolutely not be on this team in 2 years if RW is traded. The *only* way he stays is if they luck out with drafting a young QB who blossoms quickly and forms a bond with DK. Very unlikely because DK will absolutely go back to 60 catches for 800-900 yards in Pete Ball 2.0, in the mean time.
This is a dumpster fire, especially when you look at the NFC West.
Russell is trying to force his way out. Greg Bell and company are in denial.
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/02/27/report-russell-wilson-thinks-pete-carroll-and-his-sons-answer-to-no-one/
I wonder if the Seahawks owner has people around to tell her that Russell Wilson is far more important to keep than Pete Carroll?
This just seems really crazy to even consider trading a marketable elite QB because he wants a modern offense, and better OL.
And it’s very difficult to have faith in who the Hawks would actually draft with all the compensation from Wilson.
😞
When your wife wants to leave you… all you can do is help her pack…
Why would you help her pack?
I would do that Khalil Mack trade in a heartbeat. Not only would he transform the D-Line, but he might be the piece that allows PC/JS to move on from Adams. Right now they could be thinking they need to keep Adams because they have no other way to get to the QB. Mack solves that for them.
So that trade would:
-Allow Seattle to consistently Rush four, potentially removing the need to keep Adams
-Trade Adams for, let’s say a first and a third
-Get Seattle three firsts that are likely in that 17-25 range (plus a second, plus Adams Picks)
-Save a mountain of money in 2022 that could be reinvested into the trenches
A good case could be made that doing this deal would put Seattle in a position to be a much better team in 2022 than they’d otherwise be with Wilson.
So if we did the Chicago trade and got Mack and no other roster changes does that mean we are now -22 million in cap space for 2021 if his base hit is 17million
Yes but having created 37m in 2022 you can easily restructure contracts or extend contracts
-3rd round draft pick
-not the biggest guy
-immediately pushes aside the veteran QB as a rookie and takes the job
-plays brilliantly
-unconventional scrambling style offsets poor OL, yet QB maintains high durability
-leads franchise to relevance
-team considers trading him for a shot at another great QB, decides against it
-coach tries to force him to play more conventionally, consistent friction ensues
-player has a brilliant stretch, then has a bad game and coach vastly overreacts
-coach/QB relationship fractured and team open to trading him after the season is over
No, I’m not talking about Russell Wilson. That’s how it played out with Fran Tarkenton in Minnesota.
Eerie similarities, right?
Now if we can only get them to keep going….
-team trades QB for huge package
-QB has a brilliant 5 year career for new team, lifts them to relevance
-original team has since fired the coach, replaces him with new coach
-original team has rebuilt
-original team reacquires QB, they go to Super Bowls
Storybook stuff right there.
That is eerie…and exactly how I see it playing out here. Yikes.
And that led me to this.
Bud Grant was the new coach in Minnesota, who of course was a mentor to PC.
What did he learn from Grant? Speaking on the eve of Super Bowl 48…
Oof. Telling.
*3 out of 4 bad games. Mainly really really stupid decisions.
Overthrow to DK that turned in to a PPat int
Really bad int on 4th down in the red zone against buf
Awful decision to throw against his body against LA which gets picked instead of running for a first down and a score
I understand that your talking about Grant but Just pointing out that Pete gave Russ some leeway for his mistakes and Russ kept making them over and over again.
As a theoretical exercise (not that it’s going to happen) consider what the seaHawks could accumulate if, in addition to trading RW they traded some other players: What could we get for Bobby Wagner in trade? Maybe a low 1st or two 2nds? A 2nd and a 3rd? Just asking. What could we get for Jamaal Adams? A 1st and a 3rd? Just asking. What could we get for DK Metcalf? Two 1st round picks? I don’t know what all you could get but I’d warrant those aren’t far off.
So, if you trade with the Raiders and get Carr, Abrams, a 1st and additional picks, you now have something like four or five 1st round picks, a few 2nd’s, a couple 3rd rounders….plus our existing picks.
You also create lots of cap space.
Now you extend the players you want to keep (Dunlap, etc?) and go shopping the FA market in what will offer a plethora of veteran talent. You could, for example, replace DK with a top-shelf receiver (or two), you could get one or two of the best OL players out there who fit your new scheme. Same on the other side of the ball…
Now you also control the draft. You can wheel and dealing get the players you want.
The point is, it gives you lots of options.
For example, with all those 1st round picks you could possibly trade up for a QB. You have Carr, so you don’t need one, but maybe the cards fall your way and you can get one of the top two QBs. I would only want Trevor Lawerence or Zach Wilson, personally, and it’s perhaps a long shot for either.
Better, fill your roster with the top young talent to go along with the veteran free agents you’ve already added.
This, if done wisely could offer a competitive, play-off worthy team for many years.
You’re going to get a hard time for this suggestion but I fully agree. If you trade RW, then commit fully to a rebuild which means dealing as many assets as you have for draft capital and cap space.
People will give you crap about DK – but without RW; he won’t be here long term and you could absolutely score a haul for him.
I made the analogy above, but would you rather take a bullet to the head or get stabbed 100 times and slowly bleed out? Just get it over with and commit to something with conviction. I’m tired of this patchwork approach to everything with Pete.
Until we see what the full team looks like going into 2021 we don’t know what DK will be thinking. If he’s getting the ball and we’re winning games, he’ll be fine.
We already know what DK was thinking *WITH* RW at QB. Where in the world are you getting the idea that we return to Pete Ball with a lesser QB and he is going to put up big stats?
Also, how are we winning in this hypothetical? I’m open to it but how does that happen when you don’t have a QB?
You don’t trade DK Metcalf
You consider trading DK because he’s not going to want to stay in Seattle and play for this coach.
If you guys want Pete Ball – you don’t pay a WR $20M to catch 70 balls for 1000 yards. Not to mention, even if DK didn’t force a trade there is virtually no chance he’d want to resign here.
So your going to get a 3rd round compensatory pick, at best, for 2 years of DK probably averaging around 65 catches for 900 yards. W/out RW – he’s not putting up his 2020 star line.
There’s no rush to trade Metcalf
If you trade him you can do it in two years when you’ve maxed out his ultra cheap contract
I’m mostly talking about a trade because he is not going to hang around getting 900 yards a season.
Maybe not — but you don’t trade a player of that quality away, earning about $1m. Next year, year after? Maybe, if he forces the issue. But not now.
Oh I can agree with that. I’m simply convinced that no RW +
Pete staying is a formula for DK to become a problem (and I wouldn’t blame him). It’s a really important caveat for my stance – if I didn’t think DK would become a problem; then no way do you trade him. Again, I think it’s inevitable that he goes off the rails in Pete Ball with no RW.
I prefer the Chicago deal of all of these, the Mack factor being the biggest selling point.
Personally I’d want to try and draft and develop a QB with a cheaper bridge guy to compete year 1 than get a guy like Carr. For me he’s the kind of QB that holds your franchise at mediocrity. He also doesn’t feel like a Pete ball QB, his game is built off 5 to 10 yard games.
I don’t know if anyone else has already posted this but the trade proposals from the staff writers at The Athletic are terrible.
Raiders: Carr, ’22 1st, G John Simpson, S Tanner Muse
Bears: Foles, ’21 1st and “mid-rounder”, ’22 1st, CB Jaylon Johnson
Saints: Taysom Hill, ’21 1st, ’22 1st, CB Marshon Lattimore
Cowboys: Dak, ’21 1st, ’22 3rd, WR Michael Gallup
And then at the end they have MSD choose which package he would go with and he chose the Cowboys offer.
Yes they were all deals the Seahawks should just hang up on
Herein lies a wrench in the works. Wilson has to sign off on the trade. Seattle is not going to get the kind of value everyone is talking about here unless Wilson wants out more than he wants to win. I think the desire to win is his first priority.
Seattle shouldn’t get good value for him because they aren’t trading him to get value. They are trading him to cleanse a toxic situation (and I do believe they will try hard to trade him). Potential trade partners and Wilson should work together to reduce compensation, because Seattle doesn’t win by holding on to him.
I don’t think there’s any danger of Seattle not getting fantastic compensation
It’s just about whether they can sort this mess out or face a divorce
I agree with you if Wilson’s motivation is primarily to be gone.
Yet if his main priority is to win, why would he sign off on a trade that fleeces his next team of so many resources?
Well, it would fleece them of some R1 picks for a while.
But as the Buccs showed, you can still add players. You can still give a QB control. And Wilson clearly thinks if he can get his way, he will deliver.
Fair enough. I believe they will have to compromise. Seattle won’t get a king’s ransom, but it will be decent.
I think they would get a kings ransom.
The Bears & Raiders are desperate.
I can’t help but feel pretty underwhelmed by most of these trade scenarios. I know it’d be difficult to get similar value back in any RW trade, but I guess if your hand is forced, you lose some leverage. Still, considering what Detroit got for Stafford, I would think Seattle could get 4 firsts, a second and players. I feel like three firsts barely covers the Adams trade situation, putting us back at square one in terms of draft assets. If we’re going to trade Russell f*****g Wilson, then we better be able to right the ship with a truckload of high picks. If this goes down, then here’s to hoping for a good healthy bidding frenzy for Russ.
Can’t compare Adams trade. We simply overpaid.
I fully recognize that we overpaid, and I’m not comparing the Adams trade to anything else. I’m merely thinking about the overall amount of draft assets we have and what we’d need for a successful rebuild.
And for the record, I’m also all-in on trading Adams to recoup some picks. That’s when you start getting ahead of the curve, and have the ability to really have a successful post-Wilson era, in my opinion.
Great article on the 4 options and possible pieces. I agree with the 3 1sts a 2nd.
The additional pieces would be interesting.
I don’t know why many assume if we trade Wilson, Wagner and Adams we couldn’t compete. To me with the added draft capital and cap space, we could.
Maybe not Superbowl favorites, but a playoff team; i think is very possible.
In your Chicago scenario. 2021 picks 20 & 52 plus 2 additional 1st with Khalil Mack. Heck just give me pick 18 from Miami for Adams.
Now u have 18, 20, 52, 56, 129, 168, & 209
With Dunlap, Reed, Ford, and Mack there’s some 4 man pressure. You could still trade Wagner for say 65 & 146 from Jaxonville.
Add Thuney at LG and Linsley at C, bring in a QB game manager like Brissett, Fitzpatrick or, Dalton. Can even trade for one then Draft a QB to groom. I’m sure they could come up with something at QB.
Bring back Sherman as well.
The Rams beat us with their Defense and an average QB.
We could do similar things in my opinion year 1 with the Chicago package proposed.
If it doesn’t work out atleast i could go into the year excited to see what happens.
I know i could live with any of the proposed 4 options. I’d likely prefer Jacobs over Abram in Raiders trade, let Blair play.
I still would love to see the offseason surprise me and Adams traded this week though. Again great write up. Fun to think about the options if we do move on from Wilson. Just hope we do get a minimum of 3 1sts and a 2nd, we definitely should.
One things for sure, it hasn’t been a boring offseason so far.
I think we should have a ‘Put Heat on Pete’ rally in front of Pete’s house or downtown Seattle to get his attention. I still think this could be resolved if Pete could change his mind and give Wilson a better O-Line and some decisions on play calls and such. Who know what another year could bring if Pete does this and Waldron’s offense works out.
Maybe wishful thinking but Russ and Pete together for another year with changes like this could change everything. Especially if Russ wins the MVP or something.
My prediction is Russ gets traded after this upcoming year to a team that isn’t on his current list.
Best Seahawks content you can find online hands down. Keep up the fantastic work Rob!
Thank you!
It’s strange. I’ve been going through the 4 teams SB Nation sites to get a feel of what the fans think of trading for Russ.
1. Saints fans…Seem entitled but are open to the idea.
2. Raiders fans…Happy with Carr and think he’s not much worse than Russ.
Also don’t want the trade and concerned more on defense.
3. Bears fans…Surprisingly don’t even know why Russ would even want to go there.
Took a poll and about 75% say no to trade for Russ.
4. Cowboys…Would rather sign Dak and fix defense but some still open.
Interesting
What did the SB Nation Seahawks boards say?
Probably, “Cut Dunlap, sign Wagner and Adams to extensions.”
Most bears and raiders sites i saw were for a trade. Just raiders fans didn’t want to give up more than Carr and two 1s. Bear fans seemed to be all in. I guess it just depends on where u look
I know they aren’t on the list but I don’t think you can rule out Miami. They have too much to offer. I liken them to the San Diego Padres in baseball. Flush with young talent and resources. Once their core was set they made a splash free agent signing in Manny Machado. Miami may be a year too early in the process but Russ is a major talent that you may have to speed up the timeline for. I’m also aware that they like Flores as coach and his defensive mind set may be a deterrent, but if the ownership says Russ is running the offense, then Russ is running the offense. If Bruce Arians wilted under the pressure, surely Flores will too. A big part of this is about control. Any team willing that has resources will have a seat at the table.
I too think Miami could be in play and Russ might consider them. There were rumors at first that Miami was on the initial list. Also it’s an upcoming team in a weak division as well as being in the AFC it would be appealing to the FO. Miami is a relatively big city and it’s a hip place to live with the weather and beaches and so forth. I could see Russ and his wife making an acception.
If the Dolphins want him and Russ agrees they definitely have the most draft / trade capital and to win any bidding war along with the Jets.
Just walking through the salary cap ramifications of a RW-Khalil Mack and picks deal….
Seattle: currently at $4.4m cap room according to OTC
Subtract $7m for RW’s cap acceleration hit ($39m dead cap)
Subtract $2.5m for the 2021 first round pick cap hit (or cumulative of 2nd+3rd if they trade down)
Subtract $16.7m for Khalil Mack’s guaranteed 2021 salary
Seahawks would be $21.8m over the cap at that point
Chicago: currently $2.5m over the cap according to OTC
Add $5.2m savings for trading Mack ($21.4m dead cap)
Subtract $19m for RW’s guaranteed 2021 salary
-no subtraction for their first round pick traded to Seattle
Bears would be $16.3m over the cap
Neither of those situations are untenable. This is doable from a salary cap standpoint.
*footnote: There’s about $700k-$1.4m of more savings for the Seahawks as the draft pick(s) shuffle 2 guys off the bottom of the roster, but that’s not super material to the discussion.
What are the penalties for going over the cap anyway?
Also if we trade with the Bears and don’t get a QB in return we would clearly be in major rebuild mode right? What would an aging Mack do for us in 3 years? For me it doesn’t seem logical to trade for older players unless we get a legit QB to replace Russ. The only 2 I can think of is Carr or Dak.
Gardner Minshew.
My big concern in all of this would be John Schneider. Does he have what it takes to run a drawn out bidding war pitting teams against each other – is he the man to squeeze everything possible out of a trade of this scale? I’m not sure of that at all….
Also do we really trust John with 1st round picks?
If Dallas is bent out of shape about us getting Jamal, then let’s mend that fence by trading him to big D.
I’d also like the idea of getting Gardner Minshew from JAX, since that will be the Trevor forevermore. Gardner can manage a game, has charisma for days and is about as dirt-cheap as you’ll ever find a QB who’s had any level of success.
John Clayton is going to have a stroke over this.
‘James Garden is playing with Graham Manzeezee in the Europa Football League’
Rob,
That was such an entertaining podcast with you and Robie. It really is getting to be some fun speculation. 90 minutes and not a moment of fluff.
Oh, and reports are that Brees is working out hard…
Pete and John have a thousand different ways to go.
Let’s get it on!
.
Thank you!
A Seahawks-Raiders deal for Carr Jacobs and picks on the cap…
Seattle: currently at $4.4m cap room according to OTC
Subtract $7m for RW’s cap acceleration hit ($39m dead cap)
Subtract $2.5m for the 2021 first round pick cap hit (or cumulative of 2nd+3rd if they trade down)
Subtract $19.5m for Derek Carr’s 2021 salary ($0 guaranteed)
Subtract $1.5m for Jacob’s 2021 salary
Seahawks would be $23.6m over the cap at that point
Las Vegas: currently at $7.75m over the cap according to OTC
Add $19.6 cap savings for trading Carr ($2.5m dead cap)
Subtract $19m RW guaranteed 2021 salary
-no subtraction for trading 2021 first round pick
Subtract $100k for Josh Jacobs trade ($3m dead cap)
Basically they stay around $7.75 over the cap
A question for the community…
Daniel Jeremiah does a top-50 board for NFL.com and updates it several times pre-draft.
So what does it mean when a player is suddenly ranked at say #35 having previously not been ranked? Or a player suddenly jumps 10 spots?
Does that mean he hasn’t watched that player?
And if so, should someone who hasn’t really studied the top 150 or so prospects in a draft be NFL.com’s leading draft expert?
Especially when they employ Lance Zierlein to write reviews on virtually every draft eligible player and he spends months working his tail off studying these players.
I would guess that his top 50 is based on journalistic criteria rather than a personal assesment of the players. i.e. he is slotting players into positions based on what he is hearing from other people around the league. I wouldn’t be surprised if he never watches a college game (outside of the ‘game of the week’) during the season.
Then he should stick to mock drafts.
I think it speaks more to what you mentioned earlier…the gap between players from 20-75 isn’t that large. As you study certain guys more, or get feedback from sources, or do updates after the Senior Bowl, a small shift in a grade can move a guy 10+ spots on your board.
Perhaps. I think that’s a bit generous though. When a player is unranked previously and then is in the top-35, that to me is an admittance of having not watched a player.
I think it means that Rob Staton takes this more seriously then most of the people paid to do it. Also, and aside from that, Rob is more competent than most who are paid to do this. Every regular reader of the site will agree.
The generous response is to say that Jeremiah had a guy ranked in the mid-50’s beforehand, then hears a bit of buzz from some team, e.g., ‘we don’t think he’ll last to us in mid-2nd round’, and he adapts. But it does seem flimsy.
My gut reaction is that he never saw the guy before. Should he? Yes, he should, if this is his day job.
I could see a big jump in ranking if there was something tangible to go on, e.g., amazing scores on the various tests at his Pro Day.
IMO he clearly updates his board when he gets tips/updates from some of his contacts on teams. I don’t think he even does his own evaluation any more.
No.
That was a fun listen Rob. Hard to believe that you two were going at it for 90 minutes. I think the Raiders deal would be my choice but man that deal to the Bears. Just thinking about a D-line with Dunlap,Mack,Reed and Ford with Robinson and possibly Taylor as depth. I know you said you would still trade Adams(rightfully so), but would you still be in favor of trading Wagner under these circumstances ? I would say yes. I think you still need that cap relief and we have Brooks who playing that behind should be good to go.
Thank you! I still think they need to transition resource from LB/S to the OL/DL whether they trade Wilson or not.
Following the Seattle Seahawks from 2010-2014 is the most fun I’ve ever had watching sports.
I say this as someone who lives on the other side of the world who grew up obsessed by cricket and rugby before expanding my obsession to football (soccer) and basketball, and finally, in about 1998, the NFL.
I see a lot of people saying that they Seahawks are a bottom 5-10 team without Wilson. Maybe they’re right, but can they not remember the rosters of 2010 and 2011? Hasselbeck was a fair to middling QB by 2010 and no one could question Tarvaris Jackson’s toughness, but as a QB he was ultimately average at best. In both of those seasons the Seahawks finished 7-9 and played some good games. Obviously 7-9 is not close to what you’re after, but for me Carroll is a good enough coach to ensure that we should avoid finishing in the bottom 5-6. And if Waldron can run an offense anything close to resembling McVay’s, it’s worth remembering that the Rams got to the divisional round with Jared Goff, and pretty poor QB.
For me the criticisms of Carroll coming into the NFL were that he couldn’t coach NFL age men. I think he’s proven this to be untrue, but I think he’s also proven that his message and methods run their course after 3-4 years. With this being the case, I would be quite excited about blowing the whole thing up and starting over. Doing this without next year’s 1st pick is very frustrating, as it will likely be a pick in range 10-18 IMO, but as I mentioned above, I doubt it would be a top 5 pick. My strategy would be to keep a few vets who are fairly new to the team: Dunlap, Diggs, Brown and players on rookie contracts, trade everyone else for picks and reasonably priced vets then see who doesn’t get the contracts they would ordinarily, in a normal salary capped year, and sign as many of those unlucky 2nd and 3rd wave free agents as will fit in the cap. Maybe see if you can trade for someone like PJ Walker or Trace McSorly if we can’t get a QB in the Wilson trade. After the year we should be well placed cap wise to resign those who work out. In the draft we need to get fast, athletic BAMFs, pretty much regardless of position.
The last few years following the Seahawks have seemed quite stale and at times boring. Time to spice it up!
100% agree
100% agree
So in 2011 the Seahawks go 7-9 with this roster:
Marshawn Lynch (HOF player)
Richard Sherman (HOF player)
Kim Chancellor (HOF player)
Earl Thomas (HOF player)
Zach Miller
Brandon Mean
Russell Okung
Sidney Rice
Golden Tate
Max Unger
KJ Wright
Red Bryant
Brandon Browner
Chris Clemons
Clinton McDonald
Byron Maxwell
Michael Robinson
The 2011 team was STACKED. Even the depth guys were high quality. Yet they went 7-9. You know what gets you to 7-9 with a team like this? How about this stat line:
271 for 450, 3,091 yards, 14 td, 13 int, & 40 rushes for 108 yards and 1 td
Know what elevates that team to a SB Championship?
257 for 407, 3,357 yards, 26 td, 9 int, & 96 rushes for 539 yards and 1 td
Oh please.
Take a breath will you.
Not sure I understand what you mean? Is this hyperbole?
We’re not close to the skill level we had from 2011 through 2015, and we don’t have the means to improve what we have short of gutting the team in trades. Losing RW easily means 4-5 additional losses, and improved competition in the NFCW would delegate us to looking at the playoffs from the outside.
There’s no one alive that would argue that 2011 Tavaris Jackson is better than 2013 Russell Wilson.
But to say the 2011 and 2013 squads absent the QB are event remotely the same is laughable.
For sure, but if Wilson doesn’t want to play for the team anymore and the Seahawks have to move on I don’t think the wheels will fall off completely, as a lot of people seem to think is inevitable. I agree that you’re not looking at 11, 12 win seasons without a good QB, however, if you can get a decent one like Derek Carr, preferably with a good oline, you might reasonably be able to expect 4000 yards, 26 TDs and 9 INTS. And the list of players you provide illustrates why I’d be in favour of a rebuild. How fun was it to acquire that team? Schneider and Carroll found a bunch of BAMF for very little outlay (with a few exceptions, ie Thomas, Rice, Okung & Miller):
Marshawn Lynch (HOF player) trade for 4th & 5th
Richard Sherman (HOF player) 5th
Kim Chancellor (HOF player) 5th
Earl Thomas (HOF player) 1st
Zach Miller
Brandon Mean (inherited)
Russell Okung 1st
Sidney Rice
Golden Tate late 2nd
Max Unger (inherited, but previously fairly underwhelming)
KJ Wright 4th
Red Bryant (inherited, but previuosly underwhelming)
Brandon Browner Cheap FA
Chris Clemons +4th for Tapp
Clinton McDonald trade for a 6th or 7th
Byron Maxwell 6th
Michael Robinson cheapish FA
I really want to see Schneider get back to acquiring that type of young and hungry squad.
The idea that the 2011 roster and 2013 roster are equal outside of the QB position is wishful thinking at best.
True. No Bennett or Avril in 2011 and Sherm, KJ, Maxwell were all rookies. Chancellor had been redshirted in 2010 too so was close to a rookie. Okung, Thomas and Tate were all in year 2 and had had patchy rookie seasons. It’s also worth noting, I think that the Seahawks Oline in the superbowl featured Paul McQuistan at LT and beasts, but penalty machines Sweezey and Breno; an expensive, but by no means perfect, line.
No Wagner, Bruce, J Lane in 2011 either
What about:
Seahawks trade R Wilson to Dallas
Dallas trades D Prescott to Houston
Houston trades D Watson to the Hawks
Everyone gets a change of scenery and the salaries are all about the same.
It’s not happening I’m afraid
Isn’t that what Corbin Smith just propounded a few hours ago?
I wouldn’t trust Pete with a Watson, if we’re not allowing Wilson to dictate the offense, why would he let Watson? PC needs a QB that can muster 3800yds, 26-30 tds, 10 or less turnovers, and 500yd or less rushing yds.
Just read that Russ is bagging on the Carroll’s, Pete and sons, saying they have too much control and are unchecked. I think this is the nail in the coffin.
Given this info if we could pry Mack and 3 firsts and a 3rd from Chicago I do that deal in a heartbeat. Bring Sherm back to finish his career here. I think without Russ, who he never liked or respected, he might be willing to do that. Do like several of you have suggested and trade Bobby and Adams for additional draft capitol.
Isn’t Teddy Bridgewater a potential get for the Hawks starting QB. Then draft Mond as the heir apparent. I would be excited about next season of that happened.
I’ve never been a big Bridgewater fan personally. It would depend if he’s cheap.
Agreed. But I think he would be ok with Waldron as OC. Stopgap at best but at least he takes care of the football.
And thanks for all the hard work you do putting the podcasts and this site together. Definitely the best site for football in all fandom.
Thanks, really appreciate you saying that
I’d be down with Carr + Abram + picks + Jamal trade.
Milton Williams pro day at EXoS:
Milton Williams
6’3”
286 lbs
32 bench reps
35” vert
4.63 40 yard dash
https://twitter.com/lancezierlein/status/1365787865821675527?s=21
Very nice.
New Orleans mayor wades in…
https://twitter.com/mayorcantrell/status/1365784852579164160
This is getting ridiculous.
You don’t want a circus atmosphere hanging over this team for the next 12 months.
100%
Seattle mayor responds: https://twitter.com/mayorjenny/status/1365831594590695425?s=21
Drew Brees is the bees knees…
https://twitter.com/sportingnews/status/1365743691240001542
Maybe the New Orleans Mayors tweet inspired Brees
Can you imagine if we have to go through a whole season of cryptic tweets and passive aggressive media leaks. I thought the last couple of years have been awful as a Hawks fan but this has the potential to be a season to forget for Hawks fans if Russ is not traded. Pete is not going anywhere and I highly doubt anything will make Russ happy. I thought there was almost no chance they would trade him originally but now I would put the odds at greater than 75%. If they do trade him the Adam’s trade is even more painful.
Just think of it as a……fresh new beginning.
Ouch!
https://twitter.com/FootbaIIism/status/1365444542409891843
LOL, that was like something out of a marvel movie.
Geezus! (P.S. – sign him.)
As a Vegas Native, I will tell you Russell Wilson coming to town would be HUGE… When the Inaugural Season for the Raiders was advertised, everywhere was plastered with Antonio Brown jerseys and what a debacle that was in itself. A trade for Russell Wilson would be HUGE for the city and market. The Vegas Golden Knights played well in their expansion season and have been so-so since, the Las Vegas Lights FC sucks and with Covid, the city of Vegas needs a shot of adrenaline. Ciara would easily be able to pick up a residence at one of the major casinos (if she desired) and the couple would be in the lights.
Vegas is the only team in contention imho. We simply can’t trade Russ without Carr in return, and they would also have to include Jacobs and two first rounders. No way we let Russ go without a legit QB in return.
Agreed that Russ can’t go anywhere without having a solid NFL QB ready to take his place. Carr will never be Mahomes, Rodgers, or an elite like that but he’s not a bum either. He’ll be good if he’s got a decent OL and weapons. He won’t elevate a team and carry them on his shoulders with regularity but he won’t be like most junk QBs and sabotage good teams. I’ve seen too many good/great teams carry a not so good QB but fall in the post-season because they don’t have a signal caller who can compete in January. Unless you get a Minneapolis Miracle so a guy like Case Keenum can win a play-off game or you have Mariotta winning a playoff game in Tennessee (but you know there’s no chance he could put together multiple wins and outperform or compete with the elite QBs), it’s generally not realistic to win a Super Bowl with a joke at QB. Sure, Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl but that was with a historically great defense. And Dilfer sucked so bad that the team got rid of him after he was a Super Bowl winning QB and signed Elvis Grbac.
In fairness though, the Broncos recently won a SB virtually playing without a QB. Eli, Flacco and Foles won four between them.
So I think you can actually win a SB with a pretty ‘meh’ QB situation.
Thanks for saying this Rob. I don’t think you need a super star QB to be successful in this league either. You just need a solid team and a QB who isn’t going to hurt you. I genuinely think the team that could be created with that Chicago trade would be very competitive in the division assuming they got a tier-two QB to step in.
Plus…
Jimmy G nearly won a SB
So did Jared Goff
Rams, Niners, Eagles had years of high draft picks gained from sucking for a long time. The Hawks wouldn’t have that. So, I think in that scenario, the rebuild time would be 3-4 years at least.
Eagles???
They traded up twice for Carson Wentz. Prior to that, their top picks were:
#20
#26
Eagles had Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham, Derek Barnett – 3 successful mid 1st round picks. Plus, Wentz was MVP caliber before he got injured.
So you’re now moving the goal posts to ‘the Eagles had three good players I remember’ and ‘the QB who wasn’t available was good when he was available’
Just admit you were wrong on that point regarding the Eagles. It’s OK.
Eli and Flacco are Carr type guys. Good enough to be good but not good enough to win a SB without a great team around them. I agree you can win SBs with them if your team is good enough. Although Foles had nothing to do with a season of football to put the Eagles in position to get the No. 1 seed, they did have a good/great team that year. And Foles was able to pull off a Timmy Smith, Rod Martin, Malcolm Smith type game.
As we’ve seen with Pete/John taking McDowell over Watt, Penny over Chubb, etc. I have absolutely no confidence in them anymore that they can actually create a team good enough for an average QB (let alone a terrible QB) to win with them. I have this sickening feeling that the good times are over (winning seasons, playoff appearances).
You can do that, provided you have a plan at QB.
I think Carr is the only solution for many reasons. Most of all he’s pretty good at not turning the ball over and he will be a puppet for Pete.
Russ naming the Bears one of his four teams is surprising. If he wants to win, I really don’t see them as a ready to win type team. The OL isn’t in great shape. Heck, Ifedi played for them in ’20.
The Bears aren’t in great shape and that’s before a Wilson trade, which will deplete many of the assets they do have to actually make the team better after Wilson. If I were Schneider (Carroll, really), I’d start off demanding the No. 1 picks AND both of their second round picks last year (CB and TE). Maybe Mack is in the deal, too.
Even with Wilson in Chicago, I don’t see how the Bears could improve on what they did last year if they’re trading players and picks to get Wilson. Just an odd choice to me (though he would be the God of QBs for a franchise void of any good ones in decades).
The Bears did start 5-1 though and are not that far removed from 12-4.
Plus they will offer control, input and legacy (making the Bears great again is a huge legacy boost)
I think Chicago is on the list almost entirely because of his buddy Graham being on the team. Not sure they would be if he weren’t there.
I’m with you on preferring Vegas with Carr in return Bobby.
It’s not because of Graham.
It’s about control and legacy. They’ll do what he wants. Offensive coach. Chance to be a legend in Chicago. Good market.
People forget the Bears were 5-1 last year and 12-4 a couple of years ago
Well I won’t argue that if Jay Cutler is on your top 5 all-time QBs list, his chance to be a legend is definitely there.
Three first and another pick? Also, everyone thinks the second and third 1st rd picks will be late in the round as Russ drags his new team into the playoffs.
If we refer to Robs excellent horizontal draft board, we see every year there is around 15 players with 1st round grades. Also, the quality/ratings of the 2nd and 3rd round picks is more consistent top to bottom. In other words, if the Seahawks trade for 2nd and 3rd round picks from a team that makes the playoffs then those pick decrease in value less than a 1st round pick would.
We have seen the Seahawks have a better record with draft picks outside the 1st round. Could the Seahawks get the next five years of 2nd and 3rd round picks rather than three low 1st round picks.
Doubt it.
You can always trade down if that’s what you want.
Plus, there’s also the chance that Russ gets hurt or something else happens and they lose games.
Better to secure the R1 picks in either case.
Rob, I wanted to say that I really enjoy the youtube videos of you and Robbie talking ball. I subscribed the other day and hit the bell.
Good stuff, and I could listen for hours if you guys went that long.
I agree. If you have the MP3 file’s and want to share, I can run them through an RSS feed and get them on Spotify or iTunes.
You could of course do it yourself as well, but I’d be happy to chip in, just so I can listen to it while walking the dogs or working out in the yard.
Here is a quick and easy link if you want to DIY:
https://www.rev.com/blog/how-to-get-a-podcast-on-apple-podcasts
Thank you
I will say this about saints they can juggle the salary cap as well as anyone.and correct me if I am wrong but they can draft pretty well in fact better than most look at roster if pretty impressive they don’t mind trading draft picks.They could surprise and make the best offer
Can they offer a legit QB?
Haha, nice counter from Seattle mayor
I have this funny feeling, the team that is now in Oklahoma City might end up back in Seattle.
Crazy talk for sure, but just a hunch.
She needs to keep Russel’s name out of her poison mouth. Same goes for the Seahawks in general
I would say it was Dallas, but Seahawks and Cowboys were already on her timeline earlier (I think): 🤔
Oh no. I wonder why they were lightheaded?
FINALLY
We are getting truth on twitter!
(hahahaha)
That’s a nothing report.
Why would any potential suitor play up Wilson’s market?
It just becomes more expensive.
Which offer y’all takin, if any?
https://whodatdish.com/2021/02/26/new-orleans-saints-massive-blockbuster-trades-russell-wilson/
IDK, trading for these guys on the final year of their rookie deals just so we can (maybe) pay them big bucks next year makes me unsure.
Maybe:
2021 R1
2022 R2
2023 R1
Marshon Lattimore
Terron Armstead
Also, I just remembered Cam Jordan’s comments about PC at the Pro Bowl a couple years ago, so I think we can safely rule out that possibility…
Definitely the four firsts. Jacksonville’s 2022 pick is gonna be top ten.
Have a really hard time accepting the idea Jax would trade a top 10 draft pick for one year of Lattimore at $10m.
I don’t think the would either, but of all the theoretical trades they listed that would be the only one intriguing to me. For myself, I want them to get a viable QB in return as a part of a massive haul. It’s the only way I see it being worth trading a Franchise QB for. Unfortunately if no one is willing to offer the moon, the hawks are going to have to take the best deal available cause there’s no rectifying this mess. Here’s to a bidding war.
I don’t think any of them are really viable.
If those are the best the Saints can do, we’ll keep them on the back burner while Chicago and Las Vegas slug it out.
Not listed but 2021 R1, 2022 R1, 2021 R3, 2022 R2 and Lattimore and Ramczyk would be good. Afaik both guys are likely better than anyone we could get for a late R1 pick, so this would be like 4xR1, one R2 and R3
I’m thinking that the Seahawks’ best play is to get max value is to make a deal in the next 10 days or so.
There’s 18 days until the start of the new league year, when teams have to be cap compliant. It will be far easier to make your blockbuster trade and THEN work to get under the cap, rather than have a short window to get all your other moves ironed out.
Deshaun Watson and Houston are in a battle of wills. Dak Prescott is coming off a serious injury and his price tag has been set astronomically high by the franchise tag last year.
The Seahawks have the franchise QB trade market all to themselves.
But mostly, since we’ve gone this far, the biggest problem could be Russ pulling a Ken Griffey Jr.
Griffey gave the Mariners a list of four teams to which he would approve a trade. One team immediately bowed out. Then another.
The Mariners agreed to a deal with one of the remaining two teams and called Griffey to get his approval. He said no. Which just left Cincinnati.
That hammered the Mariners’ leverage and the Reds knew it. Tense negotiations finally left the Mariners to make the best deal they could – trading one of the best players of his generation for a handful of ‘good’ ballplayers.
https://vault.si.com/vault/2000/02/21/home-economics-the-inside-story-of-the-deal-engineered-by-reds-gm-jim-bowden-that-sent-ken-griffey-jr-back-to-cincinnati-at-a-bargain-rate
The Seahawks’ and Russ’ relationship is over. It’s beyond repair. It is time to man up and acknowledge that.
Make the best deal you can. As soon as possible.
On a lighter note, all that tension between the Mariners and Reds did provide this great moment:
Totally agree. If you’re gonna do it, get on it and get it done.
Griffey was different. He was wanting to go “home”. More specifically, he wanted to go to what he remembered from his youth as home when his father played for the Reds I believe. It wasn’t the same. He has said it was the wrong choice he made, but he was young and if he were to do it over again he would have done something different.
At one time, Seattle had 4-5 HOF caliber players on the roster at the same time… and never made the world series. Fortunately, the Seahawks made 2 SB and won 1 with some high quality players on the roster.
Back to the Mariners. They are terrible. From the top down. The latest flap over holding promising young prospects down, even if they are better than other on the 40 man roster, to retain an extra year of eligibility breeds nothing but ill will and you will never get over the hump…. by becoming a version of the modern day Astros…. loaded with young cheap talent that is willing to stick around.
I was not saying that it would play out exactly the same as the Griffey trade would, or that RW would be as difficult as Griffey was.
Just pointing out that options can dry up very quickly, and what seems like a huge windfall of a return can turn into something far less faster than you think.
The Mariners are imo the worst franchise in all of North American sports Charlie, even worse than the Lions. I live in Vancouver, WA and can assure you if Portland ever gets a team I will immediately become a fan of that team and the Ms will be nothing more than an afterthought.
Hey Rob,
I loved the podcast in regards to the trade proposal, it was very enlightening.
I’ve followed your blog over the years in regards to the draft and immensely respect your deep dive into the draft. I remembered clearly you were calling Kyler Murray the best player in the draft and as it turned out……
I’ve been leaning towards a complete rebuild for the Seahawks for the past couple of years as the team was ageing and not enough top tiered talent,especially picking late in the 1st round or not even picking at all in the 1st round. Picking so late in the 1st round and the 2nd round for the past 7-8+ years is normally not a plan for future success.
The last few years felt more like filling in the “holes” and hopefully RW can pull out a 10+ winning season but I never sensed that it was a “true” Superbowl winning team.
When Seattle won the Superbowl, the team was so loaded with talent other teams were waiting for the players being cut, I hardly feel that many teams are doing that now.
IF RW wants to go, it time for to get 3 – 1st rounder, 1- 2nd rounder and trade JA for at least 1st rounder or possibly 2x 2 rounders.
I can only imagine JS going to work and trading back from the 1st and 2nd round picks to get multiple draft picks in the next 3 years and start loading up.
It appears that many people don’t think much of JS drafting but I remember when he was given 2 – high-mid 1st rounders and he picked Russell Okung and Earl Thomas both going to the Pro-Bowl.
I think once you get beyond that top 15 picks in the 1st round, it become more less of a sure thing.
I’m quite confident JS will do some magical things given the proper amount of draft capital.
Your thought
Rob, do you think there’sany way the saints might be open to giving up younger players (ie Ruiz, McCoy, Trautman) or is their cap situation too bad to deal rookie contracts? Also, any deal with the Saints I want their returner Harris coming back too. Love that guy.
… Or am I embracing my inner Jennifer Garner too much with that last request?
I think one of their young lineman would be likely.
I don’t think it’s conducive for the Saints to trade their young talent. I think Ramczyk is a possibility though.
AFR with Mike Detillier as guest,
Gives pretty good insight on Russell Wilson situation. Some thoughts on Pete and his personal decisions.
Also a pretty good idea of how both teams would look at a trade. thought the whole thing was worth a listen. He’s kinda at 3 1sts and any O-line player other than Ramczyk; heck makes it almost sound like you could get McCoy and Peat with the 3. Still nice to get a listen from someone that seems to have a good idea how the Saints would look at it, with obviously his own opinions as well. Touched on about everything including the other teams involved.
I Definitely thought the whole thing was worth a listen. Especially after finishing it.
https://youtu.be/ckty0panfFw
Although I’d pass on Peat, McCoy is interesting; I’d say Ramczyk though if I’m Seattle.
Well, I thought my answers were too long… but this guy makes me seem brief and short for words 🙂
Not really sure how he goes from ‘do what it takes’ to ‘they can’t have Ramcyzck’. Ok then, enjoy Taysom Hill in 2021.
Rob you’re definitely by far better at getting your point across.
I did feel the video made a strong case for your 3 1sts, a 2nd and a player though.
Like you said we just need 2 teams to really want him. That i believe we have.
You got Taysom’s last name right in the podcast Rob. It’s Tebow.
This is a situation where I may decide to throw in the towel as a fan. Wilson has been to two super bowls and won one of them. He’s one of the highest paid players in the NFL. He has (arguably) the best receiver tandem in the NFL. He has a loyal and devoted fanbase. The Seahawks spent a fortune on the offensive line last offseason (when they arguably should have spent the money on the other side of the ball). But Wilson isn’t happy? I can’t think of a single example of a quarterback who had this much success with a team who wanted out. If Wilson leaves my days as an NFL fan will be over-and that goes double for Wilson (for wanting out) and the Seahawks (for allowing that to happen). Speaking as a working class fan who used to attend 2-3 games a year, this is a really bad look.
“The Seahawks spent a fortune on the offensive line last offseason”
Uh no. Seattle ranked 18th in o-line spending in 2020 per Sportrac which is middling obviously.
“when they arguably should have spent the money on the other side of the ball”
So 2 firsts and a 3rd and a decent starting safety in exchange for a guy who ranked 52nd at his position and missed 1/4 of the season and was utterly ineffective in 2 others wasn’t spending enough resources?
Hey, Rob. Not a Seattle fan, but a long time and frequent visitor to your site. I find your work throughout the predraft process among the best the internet has to offer. Your sober-minded prospect evaluation keeps you consistently ahead of the curve, and sets you apart from the usual draft “experts” that typically just parrot the latest draft groupthink. Your insight into the decision-making process of the Seahawks brain trust is remarkably thorough and my annual go-to content as I assess Seattle’s picks in my own mock drafts. Greatly appreciate the content. With all that said…
I don’t doubt the validity of Slater’s report, but I think it’s a mistake to dismiss the Cowboys as potential suitors for Wilson – especially if it’s predicated on the assumption that Dallas is fearful of a bidding war. Jerry Jones has never been one to shy away from an overpay, and lives for the splashy move.
Of the four teams listed on the Wilson camp’s “I don’t want to be traded, but if I was…” list, Dallas seems like the most logical destination for all parties involved, and it isn’t particularly close.
The Cowboys have utilized the media to create a “Dak is our guy” narrative throughout negotiations, but I’m not buying it for a second. They can whistle Kumbaya all they like, but If they weren’t on the fence as to whether Prescott is worthy of true franchise QB compensation, then why the Washington/Kirk Cousins-level cold feet? I have to believe that Jones has a wandering eye.
Of the four team list, Dallas has (by far) the most cap space and potential for maneuverability. They’re the only team that could offer Seattle a 2021 1st-rounder in the top ten and a 27 year-old Pro Bowl-level QB. Dallas’ enviable depth at the skill positions could even make some Zeke Elliott and/or Michael Gallup sweetener feasible. (For those who scoff at the idea of any team taking on Elliott’s cumbersome contract, this is Pete Carroll we’re talking about.)
You’ve often written about the importance of legacy to Wilson. With apologies to the Bears, what potential legacy-building scenario could possibly top going to America’s Team and guiding them to it’s first Super Bowl victory in nearly three decades? More practically, could Chicago, Las Vegas, or even New Orleans provide Wilson with the supporting cast and have enough remaining draft currency necessary to even get to the Super Bowl? It’s doubtful.
Wilson-to-Vegas seems logical only because the Seahawks would immediately get a serviceable QB in return. Beyond that, it gets blurry. From Wilson’s perspective, why would the move be appealing? Wilson is fed up with Carroll’s insistence on running an outdated offensive attack, so why would serving as a yes-man QB for Jon “Offensive Balance” Gruden be any better? Save for Waller and a decent slot guy in Renfrow, the Raiders are more potential than performance at the skill positions. Jacobs regressed dramatically in his second season. Ruggs showed next to nothing as a rookie, with Bryan Edwards showing absolutely nothing. The O-line is closer to a rebuild than elite; Brown, Incognito and Jackson are cap-casualties waiting to happen, while Hudson is nearly 32. The Vegas defensive depth chart is little more than whistling tumbleweeds. Draft decisions under Mayock and Gruden have been nightmarish. Spiffy stadium, but Vegas is simply a directionless organization right now. Wilson has to recognize this.
The scene in Chicago isn’t much better. The Bears aren’t “a quarterback away”. Not even close. If Allen Robinson II decides not to play tag with Pace and Co., Wilson’s targets could be the perfectly average Anthony Miller and a bunch of practice squad guys. Beyond Whitehair and Daniels, the O-line is a mess. The core of the defense (Mack, Hicks, Quinn, Fuller, Jackson) is aging and expensive. The only two promising youngsters are Roquan Smith (in the final year of his rookie contract) and Jaylon Johnson, who Seattle would probably want as part of the package for Wilson. Chicago feels closer to the precipice of a rebuild than Super Bowl contention.
Even if the Cowboys move Elliott and Gallup this offseason, Wilson would still have a nice trio of weapons in Cooper, Lamb and Pollard. Given their cap situation, Dallas could easily pursue Hunter Henry. Even a more economical FA option like Jonnu Smith or Gerald Everett would be a healthy upgrade from the grab bag of mediocrity the Seattle TE depth chart has offered Wilson lately. Furthermore, the Dallas O-line – when healthy – is an airtight unit. Unless Wilson is a hypocrite, a quality O-line should be no small factor in choosing his next destination. The Dallas defense was awful last season, but there is talent along the front seven, much of which should be better-suited for Dan Quinn’s incoming scheme. As for the secondary, I don’t think it will be too difficult to acquire a veteran CB1 to complement/mentor promising CB2 Trevon Diggs. A 2nd-rounder for Stephon Gilmore could do the trick, as would a Quinn/Richard Sherman reunion.
At first glance, a Russell Wilson/Sean Payton marriage makes perfect sense. Unlike with Chicago, the “quarterback away” cliche is apt for the Saints, and one has to be a fool to buy Payton’s coachspeak about how he’s totally okay with going into next season with Taysom Hill and/or Jameis Winston under center. He’s not. It’s easy to envision Wilson as a hand-in-glove fit in New Orleans and getting that MVP and second SB ring in short order. I just don’t think it’s feasible.
I get that the salary cap is something of a joke anymore; more polite suggestion than anything. Teams move money around, kick the can down the road…there are various methods of cap manipulation, and the Saints are masters. But at some point, it becomes unsustainable, and I believe the Saints may have reached that point at the worst possible time. Unlike the Raiders and Cowboys, the Saints don’t have a reasonable option at QB to offer the Saints, nor would any of the draft picks the Saints give up ever be high enough for the Seahawks to secure a franchise QB. If I’m Schneider/Carroll, it’s hard to get past that. On the Saints’ end, Loomis and Payton would have to basically liquidate half their team to meet Seattle’s trade demands and make the numbers jive. I don’t see it happening.
Thanks for the kind words
I haven’t outright dismissed them — and in the piece related to the possibility of them eventually becoming viable suitors. But Jane Slater has a direct line to the Jones’ and the nature of her report, which was fairly ridiculous, made me think that this was a beyond aggressive approach from Dallas to distance themselves. I doubt they would go to that extreme unless they really wanted it to be known they weren’t really in this race. Creating a bitter dynamic between the two teams is hardly the best start to a potential negotiation.
I think they are a logical fit. Not the ‘most’ logical but a fit nonetheless. My best guess, as noted in the piece and podcast, is they know the compensation is going to be extremely high and perhaps other teams are willing to go far further than they are.
Not really. Wilson and Gruden are tight. They’ll offer him some element of control and focus. He’ll be on every billboard in Vegas. It’s the Raiders. It’ll suit his wife. It’s a smart fit for a lot of reasons.
Well they were 5-1 at one point in 2020 and were 12-4 in 2018. They made the playoffs in 2020, unlike Dallas & Las Vegas.
Thanks Mr.Bitter – it’s good to read a well thought-out analysis. Even though I don’t agree with all your conclusions, I certainly got something out of your take on the true positions you view these teams to be in. One thing that made me particularly wonder was were you said about Wilson going to Las Vegas;
“From Wilson’s perspective, why would the move be appealing?”
It seems reasonable to assume Wilson knows what you know about the Raiders offensive line etc if he’s thought this through, so why did he (indirectly) nominate Las Vegas as one of his preferred destinations? Maybe he perceives them differently to you or thinks that other things about that location outweigh the weaknesses in the squad that you identified. I guess the other possibility might be that Wilson doesn’t really want to go there, probably not but maybe this is some sort negotiating tactic – perhaps he doesn’t want to narrow the field too much?
We can analyse the four destinations but the most obvious conclusion is Wilson simply named those four teams because despite what anyone says, he’s happy join any of the four.
You may be right, but I’m not sure if Occam’s razor is useful when trying to predict this level of NFL offseason drama. Whatever media-fed information we’re basing our obvious conclusion on is likely misdirection and/or negotiation ploys to begin with. That’s why the resolution to these situations are so often something that nobody saw coming.
Well remove Occam’s Razor then. The Cowboys just told their main insider that they’re not interested. In fact they told her a Wilson trade to Dallas was a “laughable” proposition. That’s from the team.
Thinking any of these team are a poor fit because they are more than “a quarterback away” is a red herring though. A franchise hall of fame level quarterback tilts the field. If Tampa Bay was only a quarterback away from winning a Super Bowl last year then that possibility exists for a number of teams. The Seahawks were 12-4 last year because of Russell Wilson. Without him? Bottom 10? Bottom 5?
It’s a great point.
Nobody was saying the Buccs were ‘a QB away’ 12 months ago.
As it happens, they were.
Some actually were saying that the Bucs were a QB away 12 months ago. I recall a few PFF analytical dives that specifically pinpointed Tampa as a darkhorse Super Bowl contender if they could swap out Winston and his constant turnovers with more efficient performance under center.
Well let’s put it this way. Without Brady, they went 7-9.
The Bears and Raiders were 8-8 in 2020.
So it’s not like one team was on the precipice of greatness and the two others are a mile away.
Often the difference between the mediocrity of 7-8 wins and contending is a QB.
Name one starter on the Vegas defense you would consider better than mediocre. Just one.
Name one skill position player beyond Waller that you’re confident will emerge as a difference-maker.
Name one skill position player in Chicago beyond Montgomery that you would consider better than mediocre.
Any novice can take a cursory glance at Vegas’ depth chart and realize that they just don’t have the horses for a Super Bowl run. Mayock/Gruden’s track record in player evaluation suggests that isn’t going to change, especially when any package for Wilson would likely strip Vegas of premium draft capital for the next 2 to 3 years. This isn’t like the Brady/Tampa scenario; the Bucs already had the horses. Brady’s wish list was merely a solid RT, picking up Antonio Brown off the scrap heap, and bringing Gronkowski (more Brady’s cozy, tattered security blanket than needle-mover at this stage) along for the ride.
I agree with your assertion that – at it’s core – this soap opera is more about Wilson’s desire to have a voice and to be respected by coaches and management than anything else. You outlined it plainly in today’s excellent post. Russ is revered in Seattle, so this is obviously about empowerment, not adoration. I get that. What I don’t get is Wilson’s motivation for including Chicago and (especially) Vegas on his list. The Cowboys and Saints I understand, I would even see the rationale if he included Miami, given they have bountiful young talent, resources and an overall vision. I just don’t see the good in more influence when the baseline talent level for Super Bowl contention just isn’t there. If it’s better brand marketing opportunities and/or a brighter stage for his wife, then many of his gripes leading up to this point would seem disingenuous.
Maurice Hurst & Clelin Ferrell both graded in the top-20 at their positions per PFF.
So basically, name one player beyond one of the most dynamic offensive weapons in the league?
They drafted Henry Ruggs to be a second. No reason to write him off yet. I also really liked Bryan Edwards in last years draft.
So again, name one skill player beyond a really good player.
Allen Robinson hasn’t gone yet and could be tagged. I like Anthony Miller, I know he didn’t have a great 2020. There’s a lot of optimism about Cole Kmet.
As I said previously, they were 8-8 in 2020. The Buccs were 7-9 in 2019. So there might not be the huge difference some think.
Great quarterbacks make a big difference.
Furthermore — Wilson has them on his list for a reason.
In fairness, I have tried to explain it. You seem to be pretty dug-in though on your disdain for those two franchises.
I have no disdain for either franchise*. No dog in the fight. Just trying to look at the situations realistically.
Hurst is best served as a rotational, interior pass-rusher. Nice player, not a foundational piece. Ferrell encapsulates my point about Mayock/Gruden and their putrid allocations of resources. His PFF grade was heavily juiced by his run-stopping ability. That’s nice and all, but when you invest the #4 overall pick in an EDGE, you expect an elite pass-rusher. Ferrell has decidedly not been that guy, and doesn’t appear to even be trending in that direction.
Ruggs is fast. That’s it. I’ve seen zero evidence of refinement as a pro. The Raiders bit on the classic blazing forty-time late-riser. Coulda had Jefferson, Jeudy or Lamb. I’m pretty confident we’ll be hearing that sentence ad nauseam over the next few years.
We just disagree on Edwards. No special traits. For me, his ceiling is a serviceable WR2, if that.
You’re right, Montgomery is a solid RB. It’s also 2021.
Robinson could return, but tag-and-trade seems more likely from what’s being bounced around. He seems to want out. We’ll see.
Miller is average and inconsistent. I’ll give you Kmet. I file him under TBD right now, but the adjustment to the pros is traditionally difficult for TEs. Still, I’d be more confident if he would have had a little more impact as a rookie.
Also in fairness, simply repeating “they were 8-8 last season” isn’t really an explanation. Records are often a flimsy representation of a team’s talent level, for various reasons.
* Okay, as a Jets fan, maybe I have a touch of disdain for the Raiders. Also as a Jets fan, I can tell you that Seattle fans don’t know TRUE suffering.
Well, the situation realistically is Wilson has named four teams he’s willing to go to.
You might think the Raiders & the Bears are a lost cause. Wilson seemingly doesn’t agree.
I’ve simply tried to offer some explanations as to why.
You make it seem as if I said the Raiders and Bears aren’t a QB away in a vague, hit-and-run fashion. I didn’t. I combed through depth charts and thoroughly explained my reasoning for the statements.
The Brady/Tampa and potential Wilson/Vegas (for example) situations aren’t even comparable. A hurricane of draft and free agency whiffs under Mayock/Gruden has left the Raiders depth chart an irreparable wreck, especially on defense. Tampa’s situation was unique; their depth chart was heavily peppered with emerging young stars on both sides of the ball (Godwin, Marpet, Vea, White, Davis, Murphy-Bunting) complemented by a talented mix of young (Evans, Smith, Barrett) and old (Pierre-Paul, David) veterans. The draft day additions of Wirfs and Winfield Jr. were “finishing touches” moves, and the Bucs were able to apply those finishing touches because the arrival of Brady didn’t cost them their 1st and 2nd round picks, which would surely be the case for Vegas should they acquire Wilson.
Also – Russell Wilson is nice, but he isn’t Tom Brady.
I thought that about the Bears, using them as some leverage tonstumlate a trade package from the team he prefers.
As I said earlier, I don’t think we need to overthink this. He named the four teams because they are four teams he’s willing to go to.
The Bears are a historic franchise and if you go there and win, you are a legend. They don’t have many quarterback heroes in that city. Great market. They were a playoff team last year and a 12-4 team with Mitchell Trubisky in 2018. According to Brandan Marshall, they are willing to give him the power he craves.
Are these Brandon’s rankings or Russ’?
https://twitter.com/FTFonFS1/status/1365288265721479172
Surprising, honestly. You think they are running on fast track at EXOS?
Let’s be right… Rashod Bateman is not a 4.3 runner.
And results like that make a mockery of the whole event.
It’s why the combine is so important.
Love Bateman but he is not DK Metcalf speed wise. I watched him a ton because I really like him as a prospect and he is not a burner who accelerates away from people. No combine makes this draft even more of a crap shoot.
I was thinking last night. Why would the Hawks trade Wilson to an NFC team and why are they letting him decide where he wants to be traded. He is under contract and is not going to hold out. They have all the leverage. Sure the media drama is a pain in the ass and it is not a good look but why not just say to Wilson and Rodgers this is how we are doing things if you don’t like it these are your options in the AFC the Jets, Dolphins and Raiders and take it from there.
I think there is truth to this, but do you really want a situation where your star QB doesnt want to be here anymore?
If it gets to that point, some would say it already is, it might be best to get what you can and move on.
Agreed but he is the most valuable asset the franchise has ever had. Do want him determining the outcome or do you (Hawks management ) control the outcome. We saw with the Adam’s trade last year and the McDowell , Taylor picks etc what happens when you make decisions out of desperation instead of from a position of strength.
He has a no trade clause in his contract.
The minute a franchise QB requests a trade, you have two scenarios:
— Trade them
— Live within a giant shitstorm that will have long-lasting, damaging effects on your franchise
If Wilson leaving the team becomes inevitable, you have no choice thanks to his clause but to deal with the teams he’s prepared to join.
Thankfully, there will still be a heated bidding war.
Credit to Rob for seeing this issue coming earlier than most. But with the cap hit, the Jets having our first round pick next year (a step back this year is therefore less valuable), a new OC who could modernize the offense, tons of cap room next year, potentially losing key guys like Brown, Wagner and Lockett and being 12-4 last year (Tampa won it all as a wild card), I think waiting a year makes too much sense. I know most on the blog did not like this team’s chances from the start, but the main worry was the pass rush which ended up being fine. I always saw the Jamal Adams deal giving us a 2 year window with the core current roster (next year the pain of a second 1st rounder could tip the balance of the trade). I hope we see it through and next year if we want to trade RW for a boat load if picks we still should be able to or keep him if we progress (he should be sacked less and have more open receivers in this scheme).
There’s no waiting until next year. It’s a pipe dream.
I’ve explained why in a few articles.
This gets sorted now — either with a truce, or by moving on.
Florio’s latest shot at the Seahawks owner:
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/02/28/with-no-owner-involvement-pete-carroll-is-calling-the-shots-in-seattle/
Wonder if Jody sees these things and if so, what she thinks about it.
If Russ gets traded to the Bears or Raiders (most likely) does anyone really think it gives him a better chance at winning an SB? The Bears roster is not good at all and the Raiders play in the same division as Mahomes and Herbert. No doubt his stats will probably look better and maybe that is what he cares about most.
The Bears made the playoffs with a shambles at QB and were 5-1 at one point in 2020. In 2018 they finished 12-4 with Trubisky starting.
And they will structure their offense around Wilson’s vision.
The Raiders will do whatever he wants and have been strongly placed in each of the last two years before late season collapses.
They are well placed to be very competitive with Wilson at QB.
Rob,
I’ve thought more and more about the potential deals above and I am really intrigued by the Bears deal. I do personally believe it comes down to the Bears/Raiders. In the Bears deal, Mack would be an amazing upgrade to the DEF and then we could focus the draft picks to build an OL. Finding a veteran QB for a year or two while grooming a young guy (Mills or Mond for example) could be interesting. I know the current market doesn’t have the greatest FAs, but I could see some cuts that could open things up. I just read earlier today that WFT will be releasing Alex Smith. I know Brissett isn’t the sexiest QB, but maybe he could stand in for a minute. I’m interested to see who else pops up
Let’s suppose that Russell Wilson gets traded. Russell Wilson loves the deep pass. Well guess what that? That is major reason(not the only reason) he continues to get hit. Look at Tom Brady. Tom Brady wants to get rid of the football ASAP. Before Tom Brady went to Tampa Bay he was know as check down Charlie. Over the years Tom Brady threw to his running backs and his tight ends(their offense was also known to throw to their slot receivers). Russell Wilson sees himself as Patrick Mahomes. Maybe Russell Wilson should look in the direction of Tom Brady. Now I am a big fan of Patrick Mahomes. But Mahomes is still on his rookie contract. How many Super Bowls is Mahomes going to go win once he is no longer playing on his rookie salary. If Russell Wilson would get traded he would have to change his style. Otherwise he will continue to take hit after hit after hit. BTW: Pete is not completely innocent either. He laughed when someone mentioned dink and dunk offense. Well the one who is all smiles😃 is Tom Brady and his dink and dink offense.
I completely understand Russell Wilson. All these sacks/hits are starting to take it’s toll on him mentally as well as physically. And that is where the issue stands. The hits are starting to take a MENTAL toll on him. Where ever Russell Wilson plays( and hopefully it is here in Seattle) he has to change his style. Not drastically. But he needs to look more in the direction of Tom Brady. Tom Brady still throws the occasional deep pass. But Tom Brady USES ALL his weapons. The Patriots took slot receivers that no one ever heard of and practically made them household names. Players like Wes Welker, Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman practically become house hold names. Bill Belichick by implementing a strategy of two tight ends was ahead of the curve.
In my opinion Russell Wilson is in a perfect situation and does not realize it(or maybe he does). Look at what the Rams offense did with Jared Goff. Now the the Seahawks have Shane Waldron. Can you imagine what Waldron(who also coached in New England under Belichick) could do with someone who has the talent of Russell Wilson. Assuming the Seahawks do FIX the offensive line Russell Wilson could not be in a better situation.