Tuesday draft thoughts — could Houston take a defender?

December 27th, 2022 | Written by Rob Staton

If you missed my second mock draft yesterday don’t forget to check it out

There’s something we probably need to be prepared for that we aren’t really discussing.

There are a lot of Seahawks fans who want the team to draft a top defensive lineman with their first pick — currently #3 overall courtesy of the Broncos.

The feeling is picking in the top-three will guarantee one of Jalen Carter or Will Anderson.

There is a scenario where that isn’t the case, however.

After writing my mock draft yesterday I went and had a look at what other teams’ fans are talking about on their forums. The Texans’ forum made for interesting reading. There seems to be a groundswell of support for Houston to take one of Carter or Anderson with the top pick, while adding a ‘stop-gap’ quarterback for 2023.

The feeling is the team is at the start of a massive rebuild. They have very few assets to actually build around. It’s plausible to launch a build with a top pick at quarterback. Yet it might actually be the worst environment for a young signal caller to come into.

If we assume the Texans are going to struggle for at least another year or two, they’ll be in position to add a top quarterback in future drafts.

Further to that — while I think this is a reasonable quarterback class in 2023 with four players worthy of being taken early, none of the quartet has truly separated from the pack. There isn’t a ‘must have’ player to select first overall. Neither, arguably, is there a player worth trading major stock for to get into the top-two picks to select one.

I don’t think it’s beyond the realms of possibility that Carter and Anderson, in either order, go first and second overall. That would leave the Seahawks in a tricky situation if you are rooting for a defensive lineman with the #3 pick.

Despite a lot of hype in the mainstream media, I don’t believe you can justify taking Myles Murphy that early. I watched every Clemson game in 2022 specifically to observe their D-line talent. Murphy plays soft off the edge and you can target him in the running game. He looks like a great athlete who plays in flashes but he’s not someone in college who took over games or ever really dominated.

His frame is unrefined and lacks muscle definition which is an alarm bell for me. I think he’s just a natural athlete who is superior athletically to the competition in High School and college and ‘gets by’. When you get to the NFL, you can’t rely on that. Your power, technique, determination and consistency has to complement your athletic profile.

Murphy didn’t even start some games for Clemson this year because of his play. He was also spelled a fair bit and the hammering at Notre Dame was ugly. I don’t know how anyone can watch that game, where Murphy had his arse kicked for four quarters, and think ‘this is a guy I want to take in the top-five’.

On a supposedly super talented D-line (which so often flattered to deceive) he only had 6.5 sacks in 2022.

In a situation where Carter and Anderson are off the board, you almost have to consider taking the top quarterback. That is probably where the value is. Unless you see Tyree Wilson’s length and size as suitably unique, it’s a hard sell to go for the third D-liner available. While Wilson’s play is very good in flashes — he too is inconsistent and might struggle to be more than ‘good not great’ at the next level.

It’ll no doubt be pointed out that trading down would be a good option in this scenario. Perhaps. If someone isn’t prepared to trade into the top two picks, however, and with Arizona at #4 unlikely to draft a quarterback given their massive financial commitment to Kyler Murray, a great offer might not be forthcoming.

This is the problem with this draft class. There aren’t a cluster of top-10 worthy players. There are basically the four quarterbacks, Carter and Anderson and then two players at lesser positions — Bijan Robinson and Michael Mayer. There are no offensive linemen worthy of the top-five or any receivers or cornerbacks — three positions seen as premium picks in the modern NFL.

In previous drafts it’s probable that players like Carter and Anderson would go between #5-8 in the top-10. Due to the thin number of blue chippers, they could end up being the two ‘must have’ talents.

This is why I’d propose not getting your hopes up for one position or another and keeping an open mind. Don’t pick ‘team D-line’ or ‘team QB’. Be open to either. It’s not impossible for the top two picks to both be quarterbacks — with Houston taking one and then another team trading into #2. It’s also possible that the top two defenders come off the board before Seattle picks.

It might be worth rooting for the Texans and Bears to finish with a flourish. Chicago appears determined to lose out but Houston have somewhat winnable games against Jacksonville and Indianapolis. If they win both and the Broncos lose to the Chiefs and Chargers, the Seahawks will pick in the top-two. Houston has a great record against the Jaguars and the Colts are imploding. So there’s cause for optimism.

Meanwhile, I’ve never been one to root for ‘tanking’. It never interested me this year. It was more a case of if the Seahawks are bad, at least the reward is a high pick. That said, I’ve very little interest in Seattle backing into the playoffs as a bad seventh seed. The NFL has diluted its post-season with this seventh seed nonsense. It’s not just the Seahawks — you could argue the Packers, Commanders and Lions also have no business putting in a late tilt for the playoffs.

I think it’s overblown to think there’s anything to gain from playing in the playoffs. It’s often said the Seahawks have a young roster but in reality they have the 11th oldest roster in the NFL this season.

If they were winning as many as they were losing to end the season, you could probably muster some enthusiasm for a post-season run. Any given Sunday and all that. Yet with the team on a 1-5 run that includes a solitary victory against LA’s backups plus chastening defeats to Carolina and Las Vegas at home and numerous arse-kickings in the trenches, it’s hard to imagine anything other than a potentially embarrassing wildcard loss to the 49ers or Vikings.

Seattle currently has the #12 pick in the draft. Qualifying for the playoffs would mean, at best, having pick #19. I know you’re supposed to sit here and say you want the playoffs etc and be a good old fan. For me, I’d rather have another high pick. The higher the better. This team needs the best possible opportunity to add talent far more than it needs a wildcard game in the post-season for ‘experience’.

Get the ‘experience’ with a better team in the future when you’ve got a chance to actually win something.

Some other quick notes…

— If the Seahawks don’t take a quarterback early I’d be fully prepared to select Dorian Thompson-Robinson in the third or fourth round range. He’s been a blog favourite for some time, he’s a brilliant playmaker who can throw to all areas of the field and be creative with his legs. He’s not the big, tall, strong-armed dynamo that many teams are looking for but I do think he can become a Jalen Hurts type player in the right situation.

— Without wanting to sound like a stuck-record, I couldn’t help but watch the Eagles vs Cowboys game with some envy on Christmas Eve. Two highly competitive teams full of creativity and ideas. Even though both defenses gave up a lot of points, you saw numerous big plays. The Eagles had six sacks and a pick-six. The Cowboys had two interceptions. Both teams had over 400 yards on offense. It was a proper contest full of excitement. Watching it just made me think how boring it’s been to watch the Seahawks at times over the last few years, aside from a few flashes such as the four-game winning streak this season. For all the hand-wringing over Dallas’ lack of playoff success — the Seahawks only have three playoff wins in the last eight years. It was very easy to imagine Jonathan Gannon coming in to be Head Coach in Seattle to bring some of Philly’s philosophy to the PNW, or Kellen Moore coming in to run a dynamic offense with an experienced defensive coordinator by his side. I am so ready to see something different and new in Seattle.

— I think it’s time to consider getting rid of the Bowl games now that the playoffs are being expanded. They used to be much-watch TV — a final opportunity for players to finish a college career on a high or showcase their talents. Now most games are treated like a hindrance at the end of a long year. Top players sit out. Those who do participate often have an eye on the off-season and avoiding injury. I haven’t watched a single Bowl game so far and feel like I haven’t missed out at all.

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195 Responses to “Tuesday draft thoughts — could Houston take a defender?”

  1. Mr Magic says:

    Good piece front page of Ringer about the Hackett Wilson debacle. Author really praises Carrol for managing egos and disputes in a way few other coaches can. Its a good read about how bad things are in Denver. Cant believe Paton is getting away with it for now as well.

    • Rob Staton says:

      Did he manage them well?

      Look how things collapsed after the SB loss

      There’s been some good and bad

      • Mr Magic says:

        Well they didn’t keep winning SuperBowls but hard to say things collapsed, we won the division multiple times and had 5 double digit win total seasons. Since 2015 we have the 7th most wins in the league and a 60% win rate. More importantly RW kept playing at a high level despite being in an offense he detested and demanded to leave, the only offence he works in. So PC not only managed him well but had him in the offense that worked for him against his will. KJ, Sherm, Baldwin to this day cant gush enough about how well PC managed that situation and situations like it.

        Now Denver, that is a collapse. RW demands a shotgun style format and its been an abomination. Everything he asked for has shown his glairing weaknesses. Will he now accept going back to what PC had him in? The entire team hates RW as Seattle did, but PC made that work… Hackett, well…….

        • Rob Staton says:

          I would say they most definitely did collapse

          The drama was back breaking. The players were calling the Seahawks the Titanic behind the scenes.

          They were propped up by a franchise QB playing his prime years but we’re all well aware now of the drama and conspiracy going on among the players

          We don’t need to split hairs on the definition of a collapse. They went from a potential dynasty to a chaotic fractured mess

        • Peter says:

          Two more weeks of good old fashioned wilson talk.

          Thank God it’s almost over.

          • Rob Staton says:

            I don’t think Seahawks fans will let it go

            It’s another reason why I want a fresh start

          • Shane says:

            Thank you for saying it Rob… The Seahawks were absolutely on a course of being a dynasty. And then they hit an iceberg at the 1yrd line of that journey. The fact they still won so much with so many fractures and drama behind the scenes speaks to how great that team could have been. Football is a team game, and the Hawks were built to be the bullies, that was their effing path. As a fan I still ask why a different path was taken, and I probably will for years to come. Watching Russ struggle in orange has helped (I knew he would), but its time for Pete to go as well. I can’t wait to put that sweet then bitter journey to rest (watching Pete’s D still find ways to really suck is worse than bitter). A new coach and a new era of Hawks football will help move this Hawk,s fan move on from those what if questions, and if they win, all the better.

    • cha says:

      This ‘Pete was some Jedi wizard guru sage keeping bratty Padawan Russ in check’ narrative is just too much to bear.

      Apparently nobody seems to remember that Pete couldn’t build a run game or a defense for most of the last 5 years here in Seattle.

      That Pete specifically gameplanned long-developing pass plays against the Rams – the fiercest front four in the NFL at the time – with an offensive line built from scraps.

      That Pete gameplanned for the Bills to RUN the ball against his league-worst PASSING defense, and when that proved false, Pete STILL decided to keep busted-knee Quinton Dunbar on the field with 4 defensive back options to sit on the bench, because ‘Dunbar was our best option’ there.

      Then Pete talked about the need to reign in Russ because he was rallying, trying to make chicken salad out of the chicken poop he’d been handed, and darn near did it.

      But yeah, Russ is the entire problem. Sure.

      Can’t we just all agree that while Russ had/has his worts, Pete is also 100% responsible for building the team in a way that didn’t give Russ the best chance to win?

      I don’t think it is a leap to say that both sides had their issues, and both sides had perfectly valid areas of disagreement.

      • GoHawksDani says:

        Pete is a shitty playcaller and technician/coach, but he’s a good people’s person.
        And I agree that he somewhat managed a group of extreme egos while it lasted.
        There were no Tyler Locketts during the “golden years”. Maybe Kam, but most of the players were crazy and drama queens with huge ego. Also true that while these guys chug down Pete’s kool aid but after a while they were get sick of it. Pete is probably a better college coach than an NFL coach

      • AlaskaHawk says:

        I envy teams with a good offensive line that stays together for years. When will that happen Pete?

        • McZ says:

          Due to PFF ratings, Damien Lewis is by far our best OL player, with a 70.5 grade. In 2024 he will become an FA. Will they extend him?

      • 805Hawk says:

        I seem to remember at least two players flipping off the sideline, players getting in fights on the sideline, someone admitting to reading books during the team meetings cause they were bored with Pete’s rhetoric, etc. It wasn’t all peaches and cream on the Seahawks due to Pete’s culture building. The revisionist history is amazing.

        • TatupuTime says:

          It wasn’t all peaches and cream and it has been a circus for a long time. Even during the best years it was a total gongshow.

          But, I think we have to give Pete credit for allowing players to be authentic and for always motivating highly paid professional athletes. I’m not sure players like Marshawn, Bennett and Earl have the careers they did if not for Pete allowing them to be themselves.

          I can’t remember a time in Pete’s tenure where the team hasn’t played hard. They’ve played like shit, but they almost always play hard. The Broncos weren’t playing hard at all. Complete indifference from lots of players on lots of plays.

          It’s too bad we’re never going to see Pete hand the reigns over to a super strong DC and OC and just focus on big picture/motivation as Rob and others have advocated for over the past number of years. I’ll remember the Pete era super fondly as a whole, while also hoping that they let John Schneider hire a coach and get the players that he wants.

  2. Roy Batty says:

    It’s been noted in here by more than a few of us, just go BPA if the must-have player isn’t on the board.

    The Hawks are lacking starters AND depth at almost every position group, so just select the very best prospect and revel in the fact that they are setting themselves up for the long run.

    This isn’t a team that is going to dominate any time soon. It will take a few seasons to reach that level, if they ever do. So, stock up on quality players, jettison underperforming vets and cut the never were’s.

    Having so many high picks is a good start for lasting success. If they are patient and trust in their scouts, they could build a very solid foundation.

    • Cysco says:

      Problem with BPA is that the BPA very likely could be at a position that does not offer the return on investment due to position. If BPA when the hawks pick is RB or TE, you really going there?

      I’ve been leaning MPA lately (Most Picks Available) if the obvious choice isn’t there when they pick. If this draft class has depth, just not blue chip talent, then let JS go to town and try to get a few more picks on days 1-2.

      That said, my dream scenario would be that PC rides his white nike wearing horse off into the sunset after the season and we lure a new fancy HC to town with the ability to pick his QB of choice with the first pick.

      • Peter says:

        With a lack of truly elite “looking,” prospects I’m on the most picks train. Need as many lottery tickets as possible.

        Counter though. Does it matter if you get the best guard available, per example, instead of the fourth dlinemen?

        I’d say no since every year in a draft redo the best players that were actually available could have been had all over the draft.

        • Roy Batty says:

          I’m all for getting a haul of picks, but you still have to have a willing trade partner to make a trade.

          I never advocated for an RB or TE, as BPA doesn’t necessarily correlate to what a national ranking is. BPA for every GM and coach refers to the BPA on THEIR big board.

          If Atlanta wants to jump the line ahead of the Colts to grab Bryce Young, fine, but it had better be a lot of good picks. Same for Carolina.

          All that being said, I wouldn’t hurl boos at the TV if Seattle blew everyone’s mind by drafting Richardson at #3. It would show a team willing to roll the dice on tremendous upside and plan for the future, not necessarily the right now.

          • Peter says:

            I get the their board argument. But I also sense that FO’s are very likely in the top of the draft to get caught up in narratives about players.

            Not sure TE or RB would be my choice.

            But I’ll always advocate for trenches. If draft day comes and there’s dlinemen on one side that are full of questions but centers and guards that look great I’d go that route.

  3. Bmseattle says:

    How much further along in the rebuilding process are the Seahawks, over the Texans?

    I think an honest assessment of our roster would bring us to the conclusion that the answer is…not much.

    • Rob Staton says:

      Well we have two young tackles, two excellent WR’s, a very talented young corner, a good young running back and a better QB. So I think we are ahead of them. But if they finish the season 1-7 it will be harder to make that argument

      • Bmseattle says:

        Yes, having the tackle positions, as well as the CB position *potentially * filled, is a huge advantage.
        We also keep circling back to the coaching/scheme issues…particularly on defense…that make it difficult to tell about some players.
        For instance, its difficult to belivve that Taylor and Brooks are this bad. We’ve seen them be better and they are still young players.

        • SoZ says:

          I’m beginning to wonder if we moved on from Bobby Wagner too soon. 91.3 PFF, 6 sacks, 2 int this year. He seemed to be playing hurt last year. MLBs have been productive into their 30s. Is 10 million a year too much for him? Barton has been part of the problem. I can’t recall if it was Bobby or the Seahawks who wouldn’t renegotiate. Maybe some of those rush defense stats would be different with him….How good is Bobby Wagner?

          • Rob Staton says:

            We didn’t move on too soon

            His play was far poorer than people realise and he seemed to be actively avoiding contact on various plays in 2021

            They made the right call. If it gave him a kick to up the ante, fair enough. I suspect that and a cold FA market was an eye opener for Wagner. He wouldn’t have had that eye opener earning $20m in Seattle

            • Andy J says:

              Richard Sherman recently said on his podcast thingy that he had wished that the Seahawks had tried to renegotiate his contract before releasing him. Like that was the thing that pissed him off. I do hope that message was conveyed to Schneider. Why the fuck is he not trying to renegotiate with his declining players, but that obviously still love the culture/team?? Why did he not even try to trade some of their stars?? Sure, some of this is hypothetical. But it does seem like JS’s MO. And I wish he would change it. The amount of dead money we are going to spend next year leaves me apoplectic. I hope there is some effort to make some contracted players come back for less money. Or to trade them. Maybe no one is going to trade for dog shit. But then we need to stop paying big money for dog shit.

              Also Rob, I’d say an honest assessment of our roster includes 3 pretty good TEs under contract for 2023.

              • Rob Staton says:

                Bit rich for Sherman to say that after turning against the quarterback, having unhinged meltdowns on the sideline screaming at his team mates over play calls and threatening to get Jim Moore’s credentials pulled because he asked a fair question.

                He ran himself out of Seattle. Simple as that.

                • BobbyK says:

                  After his achilles injury in AZ, he limped himself out of Seattle.

                  The Seahawks refused to trade him in the prior off-season because he was still the best. After he was cut, he was given plenty to go to SF in FA.

              • Roy Batty says:

                Sherman seemed more of a chemistry issue, and less injury/declining play.

                I’m sure the achilles was part of it, but arguing publicly with the QB, other players and coaches probably made a negotiation too toxic from the FO point of view. I mean, does anyone really believe the guy that was screaming on the Amazon broadcast this year about “Just run the damned ball” was going to suddenly become a model teammate after a renegotiation?

                As for trading Wagner and others, that would be near impossible when you consider how much they had left on their contracts. Bobby still would have cost his new team around $16+ million for a one year rental, unless he was extended. I don’t see any GM ever just cutting a vet, unless there were no trade partners.

              • cha says:

                Richard Sherman recently said on his podcast thingy that he had wished that the Seahawks had tried to renegotiate his contract before releasing him. Like that was the thing that pissed him off. I do hope that message was conveyed to Schneider.

                I think Richard Sherman is free to say whatever he wants. I struggle to fully swallow everything he says about the situation.

                Bobby too. He told Dan Patrick that he talked to the Seahawks on the phone before he was cut. He asked what is going on, and they said come up to Seattle and let’s talk about your situation face to face. He said no and hung up the phone. They cut him.

                It is noteworthy that both of those players chose to represent themselves instead of having an agent, and both were sore about their partings with the Seahawks.

                I’m not sure it is as cut and dried as Big Bad Corporate Overlords Mistreating Beloved Star Players as they would have us believe.

                And Sherman had an on-again, off-again relationship with the Niners and a bitter parting too. Bobby? He’s playing on $2.5m this year. Next year he’s at $12.5m, but the Rams have an out before the roster bonus and salary guarantee kicks in. We’ll see how wonderful the Rams org is if/when they cut him loose for being a 33yo MLB they cannot afford anymore.

                • cha says:

                  A little more on Bobby: I think not having an agent really caused him unnecessary heartache.

                  Any agent worth his salt would look at his contract, and know that as a 32yo MLB with a $20m cap hit for 2022 with only $3.75m dead, he would have known that he was low-hanging fruit and properly prepped his client for the eventuality of being cut AND probably made contact with the Seahawks to take their pulse.

                  Bobby acting like he was totally blindsided by the move is either willfully ignorant or disingenuous.

                  • Andy J says:

                    I don’t think my thesis is Big Bad Corporate Overlords Mistreating Beloved Star Players.

                    I think my thesis is You Cannot Lead the League in Dead Money and Be Considered a Successful Organization. We spent $55 million on players not even playing for this team this year. We are on track to be close to the top again next year (Diggs, Adams?, Jackson, Harris, Woods, Jefferson, Mone, etc etc). And no incoming compensatory picks, despite the fact that we never spend big on free agents. John Schneider deserves just as much blame as Pete Carroll.

                  • cha says:

                    You have a valid point.

                    But in this as in all things, context is key.

                    Teams shouldn’t constantly rack up dead money but just having dead money =/= being a bad organization.

                    Not all dead money is equal.

                    For instance, $26m dead money on RW’s contract brought in 4 prime draft picks and 3 role players in trade. That is a case of GOOD dead money.

                    $3.75m of dead money to gain over $16m of room for Wagner? GOOD dead money.

                    The Eagles have $64m in dead money this year and will have at least $38m next year and they are doing well.

                  • Andy J says:

                    Wow, what an interesting factoid about the Eagles. Also worth mentioning that $20 million of that is on Fletcher Cox and Derek Barnett, who still play for the team.

                    Also… how the holy heck are the Chicago Bears paying $90 million in dead cap??!?!??? Hahahahaha… that’s just funny.

                    I think my reasoning risks major sunk cost.

                    But I guess I also just wish JS/PC were less interested in appearing to be a player-friendly team (how has that benefited them at all via free agency in the last few years????), and just be cut-throat (like Belichick). I miss the days of LenDale White being given his walking papers without hesitation. And yea maybe it’s just speculative roster-bation, but I hate that we paid the salary for our division rivals to grab two All-Pro years.

                    Put another way… PC/JS consistently say they cut players, without attempting renegotiations, before deadlines, out of “respect”. And never does it actually result in player’s returning that respect. I’m sick of the moralizing posturing.

              • Peter says:

                Fant is good.

                Dissly is good but apparently yet again going on IR.

                Parkinson is a guy. Neither good nor bad. 14 yards a game and 1 td for the season.

                Feels like TE could and maybe should be a big investment this off season.

                • Andy J says:

                  Yea, I posted this before Dissly got put on IR. Again. And his contract is not team friendly!! But no way will TE will be an investment this year. Even if Mayer drops! I think it is clear that they want to run the offense out of their TEs. And they’re not getting rid of Fant, Dissly, or Parkinson next year. At least for ’23 that position group is pretty settled.

              • 12th chuck says:

                every time I hear Reeds named being called for the packers, I cringe a bit. How much better would the d had been if he never left? maybe not a whole bunch better, but still better. He was asked to re do his deal and didn’t go very well

    • SoZ says:

      Interesting question. here we are again thanks in part to 2 games against the dysfunctional Cards with Pete able to serve up more cups of the same “so close” Kool-aid yet again.
      Is there a single exceptional player on the offensive or defensive lines of this team? We’re always hoping the draft will fix a poorly built roster.

  4. Mr Magic says:

    IM all for a playoff push here. If we win our final 2 games while not controlling our own destiny we are not ‘backing into’ the playoffs, we are pushing in. Sure its not a roaring run but its winning to get in. As the 7 seed we could also very well line up at Minny who are the most overrated team in the league. I wouldn’t count out a playoff win at Minny. If we can win at LA vs the Chargers who are just as good….

    Point is, id take a 9-7 record with a push into the playoffs and a who knows week of fun and maybe an upset and the 19th pick over a 12-17 pick. Good chance we win at least 1 more game so I doubt we stay at 12 regardless.

    • Rob Staton says:

      1. The Seahawks don’t control their own destiny. If the Packers win their two games, they are in. Ditto the Commanders.

      2. Winning against the struggling Jets and injury ravaged Rams, at home, after a 1-5 run and relying on Green Bay & Washington to lose would be backing into the playoffs

      3. A lot of people say Minnesota are overrated but forget they won in Buffalo and are 12-3 for a reason. The Chargers are not just as good and they were struggling when we played them.

      • Peter says:

        When the team was 6-3 I wanted to believe minny was overrated. The kirk cousins effect and all.

        But 12-3. That’s not a joke.

        Whether it’s Dallas, Minnesota, the niners, or other there are few teams I’d like to see us on the road against…..exactly, change few to zero.

      • Mr Magic says:

        1. exactly, so winning to get in isn’t backing in. Backing in is when you are 10-5 and lose your last 3 and still get in. Winning to get in cant by definition be ‘backing in’. Backing in is losing to get in.

        2. Chargers were on a 3 game win streak when we beat them and 4-2 overall, how were they struggling when we played them?

        3. Minny statistically has a worse defense than we do. THey give up more yards per game and more points. They also have an easier SOS. They are no where near the class that SF or Philly is all around. They have 1 quality win for sure, but nothing past that. A lot of lucky wins too.

        Point is, Ill take a playoff birth, a winning record and some good will to end the season for the young position group vs 2-5 draft slots

        • Rob Staton says:

          1. Ok, if you want to be a pedant. Qualifying through the back door. There you go.

          2. The Chargers were playing badly. I know because I studied them ahead of a national radio broadcast of their game against Seattle. That winning streak included scraping by Houston, Cleveland at their worst and Denver. They were not playing well and all were close.

          3. And the Vikings beat Buffalo in Buffalo and have 12 wins. Enough said.

          There are no moral victories and ‘good will’. It’s all bollocks. You’re either a contender or you’re not. This stuff is just rhetoric people trot out to cling to anything. We need better players. Simple as that.

          • Mr Magic says:

            you build winning cultures by winning. going 9-7 and making the playoffs with a young core you plan on building around IS a moral and actual victory! You dont win without confidence and that results instills it. I get it, you are contending or you arent, but that isnt how the NFL is set up, that is why they allow 7 teams in.

            Never forget 2007. NY Giants sit at 7-7, they win their final 2 without control of destiny to ‘back in’ at 9-7 and go on to win 2 road playoff games en route to beating a 13-3 NE Patriots who were 9pt favorites.

            These things happen, its worth rooting for vs dropping a few draft slots.

            • Rob Staton says:

              Nothing is going to impact Seattle’s ‘culture’ by finishing 8-9, 9-8 or 7-10. The die is cast and they are what they are. Whatever culture is present will already be set.

              It’s just something fans and media say. “It’s good to win and get to the playoffs.” It makes no difference. You become good by having a good team. Not by benefitting from a seventh seed and a crap strength of schedule and sneaking in. If Seattle makes the playoffs to make up the numbers it won’t make a jot of difference for next season. It will only make a difference this year, with them playing games beyond the regular season. But I expect Green Bay to make it anyway.

              The key is to get better players, improve the roster and actually become a better team. That should be the priority for us as fans IMO. If people want to root for a likely fruitless playoff run, that’s your choice.

              As for the Giants. Yeah, and they had a great pass rush and the pieces to get red hot in the playoffs. We don’t. Now let’s run through the hundreds of 7-7 teams who didn’t win the SB and were just rubbish.

              Think we’ve exhausted this topic now TBH

              • Andy J says:

                If we lose out we’d probably end up with a top-10 pick. And thus another top-10 pick in the 2nd, 3rd, etc…

                The thought honestly leaves me pretty giddy.

          • Van Gogh says:

            Chargers also didn’t have any receivers when we played them

        • Shane says:

          No, just no! I can hear that other Hawks website begging for Pete to win coach of the year for going 9-8 and absolutely BACKING into the playoffs. That 4 game winning streak was fun, but it’s not who they really are. Jacobs rumbling for a gazillion yards is where this team is truly at. They stink and they need a new head coach 3 years ago.

    • AlaskaHawk says:

      I questioned Minnesota too after tDallas whupped their butts. But they have recovered and played well since. They are a contender. Perhaps just below Super Bowl level but who knows intil the games are played.

      As for Seahawks I would still like to see them make the playoffs but it doesn’t seem likely and I’m pretty sure they would just get their butts whipped in the first game.

      Also I love watching Herbert’s passes. He reminds me of Elway the way he zips that ball.

  5. Denver Hawker says:

    Biggest reason I hate the #7 seed: it gives bad teams hope.

    Seahawks are a bad team right now, a shell of how they started. Yet, fans will grip to an outside chance they can make the playoffs and then, magically, anything goes. They’ve had one of the weakest schedules in the NFL, have lost to truly bad teams (many sitting with Top 10 picks right now).

    Instead, fans will think their team was somehow better or improved because they “just missed the playoffs”. The #7 seed dilutes success. We should be discussing offseason improvements (coaching, free agents, draft) instead of believing this is a playoff caliber team.

    • Roy Batty says:

      Adding the 7th seed was simply a money grab by the NFL. Same with the 17th game.

      They elevate nothing from a competition standpoint.

      • Rob Staton says:

        Absolutely correct

      • Gomhawk says:

        Another annoying side effect of the 17 games 7 seed nonsense is the holiday time games aren’t as meaningful with everything pushed back a week. I’ll also throw in that it removes some intensity from the season, good teams battling for 5 and 6, which reinforces the first point.

    • AlaskaHawk says:

      What if Jacksonville and Tampa Bay win their Division with losing records? Pretty much the same thing.

      • Peter says:

        Not quite.

        First I still hate the seventh seed. But winning your division is still something.

        Tampa is kind of the same thing.

        Jax is hot now. Three straight wins. Five in the last seven games. Seattle would have three wins if they win out since they melted down

      • Gomhawk says:

        Being the 4th seed and getting a home game does make it more likely to win that playoff game.

    • 12th chuck says:

      not to mention it will feed into Pete’s delusion of “how close ” this team is. maybe another losing record will ease the idea of retiring

  6. Gaux Hawks says:

    To be fair, i think the post-SB “collapse” had more to do with injuries to key players than Pete mismanaging egos.

    I also think that Denver’s collapse helps Pete’s legacy, at least for 99% of fans.

    Perfect time to hang up his Monarchs.

  7. HOUSE says:

    I hate to see our guys lose, but I agree, 100% that I would rather be picking at number 12 than skating into the playoffs, getting smashed and getting stuck with number 19. I think this team has the potential of doing great things with properly picking our 4 picks in the Top-50.

    I think you’re spot on that HOU could go Defense with the #1 pick. They have tons of holes to fill and the a QB #1 overall doesn’t make them a winning team. I look at the Jaguars and Lawrence looks much better this season compared to his rookie year. Big difference is the Jags had already been building the OL/DL and added more weapons. I’d put HOU at least 2-3 years behind the Jags.

  8. Rob Staton says:

    Offensive line PFF grades make for interesting reading

    Damien Lewis 70.4
    Abraham Lucas 65.7
    Charles Cross 63.4
    Phil Haynes 57.5
    Gabe Jackson 55.0
    Austin Blythe 53.2

    Lewis is back to being a valuable piece

    • TJ says:

      Interior OL is a definite need this offseason; C and RG. I wouldn’t mind Michigan C Oluwatimi in round 2 or 3.

      • Matt says:

        Oluwatimi is the guy I really want. Michigan staff swears by the guy and they are flat out dominant in the run game. And I think you’re right – I think he could be had in late Day 2 because I’m not sure he’s going to be some crazy tester.

    • cha says:

      Let’s move him to Center.

      OMG LOOK AT THE BIG BRAINS ON THIS GUY HERE

    • Elmer says:

      Your mock draft addressed the IOL well. Haynes can be a useful depth piece but beyond that, ????

      Kipper has Levis as his top rated QB but there is a lot of disagreement, so perhaps he will fall a little bit in the draft, and be there if the top two picks are DL.

  9. ShowMeYourHawk says:

    Hey Rob,

    What’s your view on the LB situation? Obviously, Barton has been a busted flush. Brooks has shown flashes but nothing that would justify his early draft slot from years ago. Nwosu has been a godsend but he’s only one man, whose been leaned on heavily to provide what little pass rush we possess. Per your recent Mock, LB wasn’t addressed in the first few rounds. Is this draft particularly heavy on later round LB talent that’s currently under the radar or are you a larger proponent of addressing LB via FA? Would a younger talent like Tremaine Edmunds make sense? I know we’ve got decisions on Geno and the safeties to make that will affect the cap.

    Who’d you like to see Seattle target for the LB openings this offseason?

    • Rob Staton says:

      Just get a veteran or two who can run and hit

      Or find a guy in the middle rounds

      That would be my aim

      • Matt says:

        San Fran had provided the blueprint. If you’re dominant upfront, you can find mid-round athletes at LB and watch them blossom into high performers.

        • Roy Batty says:

          The speed and power of their LBs is a thing to watch.

          The front four redirect or slow down the runner (if he gets through), then the LBs promptly create carnage.

          • Old but Slow says:

            Barton and Brooks (the non-killer B’s) seems to have the strength, speed, and power needed, but they also seem consistently out of position. Instincts? Or coaching? Can we expect improvement from them?

            Barton recently has made some hits at the LOS, which is better, but I have seen little encouragement from Brooks. Neither seems to have coverage skills, and with an inability to find the running holes, so where are we?

            And it does not seem to be a linebacker heavy draft.

  10. Matt says:

    Great stuff Rob.

    I’m actually slowly coming around to this as well. Texans are a train wreck and seem set up to make a young QB fail. To your point, there’s a lot to like about this class but there is no “no brainer” guy at that position. I hate doing the “next years class” deal BUT, you have Caleb Williams and Drake Maye. 2 elite looking prospects that don’t have the “yea but” in their scouting reports. Both have great arms, size, and athleticism along with elite level production.

    Houston won’t win anything next year; so why not just build the base and go after one of those guys. I think another interesting angle with the Texans is that the last elite QB they landed didn’t require a top 3 pick (Deshaun Watson). Forget the recent drama, but I do think this could have great influence in the organization. I know it’s technically a new front office but I wouldn’t underestimate ownerships willingness to be patient on that front.

    I think this becomes even more plausible if Texan great Demeco Ryan’s lands the job. Why wouldn’t he consider WA or JC? You know they will give him time considering his place in the organization’s history and how he can point at his tenure in SF as to what dominant trench play can do.

    Anyways – sorry for the novel; I just think you are into something here. They have a boatload of picks too. It makes sense to do what Seattle did in 2022 draft then be agrreasibe to get their guy. And who knows – what happens if Davis Mills takes a step forward by simply being surrounded by better talent? He’s not chopped liver.

    • Zxvo3 says:

      I was watching some Josh Downs last night and I ended up realizing how good Drake Maye is. He looks like the real deal with that arm strength. But I really don’t like tanking for one player because you’ll probably miss out on them because we were too good to tank.

      It doesn’t seem like the best DL class next year either. No special names that really wow you.

      • Matt says:

        Not implying tanking. Just saying build the team so that you can be aggressive acquiring the young QB and plug them into a better situation.

  11. Zxvo3 says:

    I would be fully prepared to take Anthony Richardson at 3 if Carter is taken with the first two picks. I’d take Richardson over Will Anderson too. It’s a great opportunity to draft a QB and let him sit behind Geno to learn. FYI, I would only be this confident if John Schneider is enamored with Richardson and goes to his pro-day.

    My question would be, since they don’t like to spend money in free agency to address the DL (like paying Daron Payne) how would they address the DL in the draft? At pick 12, you don’t have many options. Kancey is likely to have short arms, Mazi as well, Myles Murphy is a bum in run defense, Bresee is too risky. Is it possible that if they do draft Richardson, they neglect their biggest need and just take the value in this draft? It wouldn’t sit right with me that their biggest need is DL and they don’t address it with their first two picks.

    Another question would be who’s more at fault with being shy in spending in free agency? Is it JS or PC? Because if it’s PC and he steps down and we hire a new coach with new ideas, hopefully we would start using our roster and cap space wisely to address a huge need in free agency when the draft doesn’t offer much help.

    • TomLPDX says:

      Cliff Avril, Michael Bennett and Uchenna Nwosu would disagree with you about spending FA money on the DL

      • Zxvo3 says:

        But here’s the thing, those players weren’t expected to be as good as they turned out to be. No one thought they’d be some of the biggest contributors to our Super Bowl run. And the front office assumes that they can keep finding guys like that. Nwosu is the recent exception, but before him I can’t remember a big free agent contributor on the DL. I want real and big investments. Pay the big bucks to get the guys that teams will fear on the DL.

        • Rob Staton says:

          To be fair I think quite a lot of people thought they’d pulled off the heist of the century getting Bennett and Avril

          • Blitzy the Clown says:

            I remember the blog being pretty surprised by the Avril deal in particular. Both really, but especially Avril’s. He’d been tagged by the Lions the year before at $10.6m then signed a $13m 2-year contract with Seattle for only $6.5m apy.

            Bennett’s first deal with Seattle was a $4.8m 1-year prove it.

            And fwiw I also remember being a little surprised by the Avril’s quiet FA market. So I don’t know how much of the credit for that fantastic deal goes to Schneider or the unique circumstances of that situation.

        • TomLPDX says:

          I have a different opinion about whether the were expected to be good. There are other DL players we brought in as well that weren’t cheap such as Clowney and Dunlap. Also Sheldon Richardson (which cost us Kearse and a 2nd round pick).

          Point being they have spent money on the DL, just not effectively.

      • Roy Batty says:

        But that’s only 3 players in a decades time.

        Point is, Seattle has not been a preferred destination, no matter how many times you’d hear the national media talk about Russ being someone FAs wanted to play with.

        Whether that’s from low bids for their service or the scheme fit, it really has been a wasteland of big name, big talent FA acquisitions.

  12. Jordan says:

    The McNairs have a have a history of drafting defensive players when the Texans draft 1st overall, Williams and Clowney, so it very well could be something that they do again.

    • MarkinSeattle says:

      Good point, although given how that turned out especially with Clowney, perhaps that will make them more likely to go the QB route? Clowney and Williams were supposed to be unstoppable together and it never really turned out that way.

  13. JimQ says:

    RE: RW
    The Broncos didn’t allow RW to play at all in the 3-game pre-season, regardless of the following facts.
    RW goes to a new team with a new head coach, new team-mates, a new position coach a new stadium & new fans and isn’t allowed to play at all in the pre-season? (Very likely due to his huge contract and potential injury risk)? This was obviously the head coach’s fault for trying to replace competitive games with just team practices. RW has often been a SLOW starter in his career & IMO his new coach blew it and deserves his fate.

    • Shane says:

      That or Russ stinks and is McNabb 2.0 as his physical talents depreciate. I lean heavily that Russ will not be a starting QB in the NFL after the 2023 season because he’s old and not good at paying qb in the NFL at his age.

  14. Denver Hawker says:

    I am completely preparing for the Texans to take Carter #1, and if they don’t, the Bears will. He fits both schemes really well and looks to be the best prospect in the draft.

    I am also preparing for the Bears to trade out to a QB-needy team (wanting to jump the Seahawks) if the Texans take Carter. Most likely Indy or Carolina.

    I know we’re already planning to watch the QBs closely, but I’m going to start watching more Will Anderson tape and see how he could fit in our defense.

    • cha says:

      I would be perfectly content with one of the two QBs, Calijah Kancey and maybe an inside/outside player.

      • Canadian Hawk says:

        Cha,

        I know both you and Rob like Kancey.

        You worried about his size?

        Based on what I’ve seen, certainly doesn’t look like an issue.

        • cha says:

          I am.

          From the insight Rob has provided about the class as a whole, there aren’t a lot of picks that do not have question marks. Maybe none!

          I’ll take the production I see on tape (in both the run and pass game I might add), the evidence of his motor and the knowledge that inside rushers are one of the rarest of animals to find in the draft and cast my vote for him.

          I’ve always maintained his size might prohibit him from being a 75% of snaps monster beast. If that is managed properly, I think he can be very effective.

          http://seahawksdraftblog.com/curtis-allens-week-five-watchpoints-vs-new-orleans#comment-645720

          • Canadian Hawk says:

            Thx Cha – completely agree.
            Also seems to have some of that BAMF qualities that have been talked about on the blog before.

            If they could get Ika as well?

            Then I think we’re set in the trenches for years to come.

  15. Murphy says:

    The more I watch both college tape and the Seahawks the more I realize that what I want more than anything is excitement. I think it starts with a coaching change but I also would to see the Seahawks take a chance on upside. I’m not in any camp but my dream scenario would be Richardson at 3, Cancey at 12 (sign me up for a poor man’s Donald), and Skinner (BAMF).

    • Shane says:

      Would love this scenario. Throw in a capable center, a right guard and a mid-rounds RB like Rodriguez and I’d be on the moon.

  16. Blitzy the Clown says:

    Gonna reup my call for Da’Ron Payne in free agency

    I don’t think Seattle will get a shot at Carter. I do think Anderson is a cool prospect and all, but I don’t think he’s a game wrecker, and he’s a bit redundant to current personnel.

    I don’t think Seattle will rate Kancey or Smith like the blog. And even if they do rate either or both, I don’t see them focusing on them regardless. I could see them liking Byron Young (and Rob’s Boxing Day mock shows how valuable a trade down could be for this season’s draft class).

    Someone replied the last time I called for Payne that he’ll cost more like $18m apy than $15m. Ok. I wouldn’t be opposed to 3 years $55m. It is possible Washington tag him. But if they did, they’d have to pay him $18m in 2023 and they’re already paying Johnathan Allen that much. If they tag him, they tag him. If they don’t, make him a Seahawk.

    • Rob Staton says:

      In reading forums to get a feel for team needs across the NFL, I can tell you that virtually every fan base is calling for their team to sign Payne

      He is going to cost an absolute fortune and I doubt he’ll end up in Seattle. They just don’t spend big.

      • Blitzy the Clown says:

        No, they don’t, do they?

        Ah well.

        Greg Gaines at 2 years $10m then. He has a bit of Mebane/McDonald to his game.

        They need to bring in someone in FA. This draft won’t solve the problem by itself. Not unless the board falls perfectly and they take advantage.

        • Rob Staton says:

          Arm length is key for this regime

          If they stay I doubt they go after Gaines and his short arms

        • cha says:

          Payne is fascinating. It’s like people are willfully refusing to acknowledge he rubs shoulders with two great DLs. Allen is 79.7 PFF and Sweat is 87.4 PFF this year so far.

          You cannot possibly back up a Brinks truck and put him next to Bryan Mone and expect him to get 10 sacks from the interior.

          And speaking of PFF, Payne’s score this year? 56.6

    • TomLPDX says:

      We have Dissly signed through 2024 I believe so don’t understand your salary cap comment. Not sure why he is going on IR for a knee contusion but what do I know.

      • HOUSE says:

        I was referring to his contract hit and we picked up Noah Fant’s Fifth-year option. It was previously discussed in here that Fant could possibly be movable. With Dissly’s injury history, I don’t think we can move Fant.

  17. GoHawksDani says:

    TBH: if they pick either Lewis, Richardson, Carter, Anderson I’d be fine with it.
    Anything beyond them in the top4 and it seems like a mistake. But it feels like the draft shaping up in that way that these 4 will go top4 in whatever order.
    I’d be also fine if they’d not want to get a QB and both Carter and Anderson would go by #3 pick and they’d trade back 5-7 spots.
    Worst case to me would be to pick Stroud, Young or other overvalued players at #3 or if the Broncos pick somehow would be at #6 for example. Early teens could hold some value or interesting players (hope to remember their name, but if Robinson falls because him being an RB, I wouldn’t mind him around #12, or the TE Myers (?), or Kancey or Mazi might be a reach in mid teens, but I wouldn’t mind that much). There seems to be 4 top players in this draft. Then some overhyped ones or ones with great talent but lesser positional value and there are some in the teens that has the value to match their potential draft position.
    So I hope we can get one of the early guys or trade back and pick other value options (and hopefully plug some holes in R2-3 with the additional picks)

    • TomLPDX says:

      I really hope they don’t pick Stroud or Young early either. Just get the BPA for our needs and pick up DTR in the mid rounds (assuming Will and Richardson are gone).

    • Trevor says:

      Agree completely one of those four (Carter, Anderson, Levis, Richardson) would be a home run pick.

    • MarkinSeattle says:

      I disagree, there seem to be six top players in this draft. The problem is that two of them play non premium positions of RB and TE. But I expect those two are the most sure fire pro bowlers in this draft. They just won’t get selected in the top 5 or likely even the top 8-10. Given the impact of the DL, QB, LT, CB and WR on the game you have to take those positions in the top 10.

  18. Hawktalker#1 says:

    More good work here. I appreciate the content. I have fallen victim to it, and it is so easy to get tunnel vision on the one guy that you want. Right now the guy for me is Carter and I’m not gonna give up on sending all my good vibes to get him to come to Seattle. However, fans always need a reality check and I appreciate Rob helping us out in that regard so we’re not all drugged up on unrealistic Hopium 24/7. GO HAWKS

  19. Hawktalker#1 says:

    Sidenote, one of the things I’m a little bit hyped up about is having Godwin Igwebuike on our starting roster as a kick returner. So exciting seeing flashes of brilliance from him when we have been very dull in this area for a long time. Breaking one or two cooks could make the difference in a couple of critical, must have to get to the playoff games.

  20. Trevor says:

    If the Hawks end up with a top 3 pick and Levis is on the board he has to be the pick doesn’t he? Ideal size, mobility and can make all the throws. He is the prototype 2023 NFL QB and how often does a team like Seattle have a chance to draft that type of prospect.

    The OL / DL are absolutely the priority for Seattle but if they can get Levis or maybe even Richardson then I think they have to be the pick.

    • Trevor says:

      #3 Will Levis
      #12 Bryan Breese
      #36 Calijah Kancey
      #50 Van Pran or John Micheal Schimtz

    • Denver Hawker says:

      1. Carter
      2. Levis/Richardson

      This is my priority if picking at #3

    • bmseattle says:

      I agree.
      *If* there was a consensus, game wrecking DL in this draft, it’d be different.
      But since there isn’t… you gotta go for the potential franchise QB.
      I’d be over the moon if we got Levis. Just a couple of months ago, it seemed impossible. If we somehow end up with him, I’d consider us very fortunate.

      I’d also be happy with Richardson and his insane upside.

  21. Kyle says:

    Rob, what are your thoughts on Sean Tucker the RB from Syracuse? The draft community has highlighted Charbonnet, McIntosh, and Bijan Robinson, but Tucker is the definition of a home run hitter. Penny and Walker have that ability and it’s one PC and JS have brought up multiple times in pressers when they’re asked about RBs. Tucker seems like a nice end of day 2 early day 3 kind of pick since there isn’t much stuff on pass catching or pass protection.

    https://youtu.be/qotcCX2_txg

  22. JAFreeman says:

    Check this out. Mel Kiper has Will Leavis as his top-rated QB, catching up with Rob, and folks are freaking out:

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/football-world-shocked-by-mel-kiper-s-quarterback-rankings/ar-AA15Ifp7?cvid=d01a85347c4a44e6877177f04795527c

    LOL

    • cha says:

      I like how they term random internet strangers as ‘the football world’

      If you wrote an article every time you posted something on twitter and people freaked out…

  23. Great article there is certain things are predictable the Seahawks have difficult time covering tight ends and running backs.i still have no idea how Bruce Irvin gets more snaps then Mofe. And for some reason Bruce Irvin jumps off side at least once a game at least seems like it how long has he been in the league?

  24. Hebegbs says:

    Agree 100% on the College bowl game comment. They are so boring and I’ve spent the least amount of my time that I can recall in recent history watching them. They are just so anti-climatic now with NIL and Portal moves, coaches leaving before the bowl for “greener” pastures and NFL opt outs. Have to think the overall ratings must be WAY down.

    For another forum I suppose, but college FB feels pretty broken to me. I don’t fault the kids for wanting to be compensated for NIL but at the same time, it just feels like a haves vs have nots more than it ever has as far as the game is concern. All these smaller schools that can’t recruit 4 and 5 star HS kids and instead develop lesser * ranked kids see them pillaged after giving them their opportunity. Wake Forest QB latest in the portal I see-rumored to Notre Dame…

  25. Also I like the idea drafting DTR I guess it might depend on Drew Lock isn’t under contract next year who knows if he will come back next year.its possible Drew Lock might have some options this off season. Tua having 2 concussion in one season a tad concerning isn’t it.

  26. Pran says:

    It is possible Texans fans are looking for JJ Watt 2.0 and all the good times. Is there such a generational talent in this draft. Any GM with out a franchise QB and with #1 pick will select a QB. There are some good QB prospects in this draft as Rob highlighted. It is okay to fail picking a bad QB than a DE at #1 I guess.

  27. Vbullen65 says:

    Hi Rob, I was watching the Seahawks Playbook podcast today and you got a mention. One of the guys seemed to like your draft, but the Meyers guy seemed really insecure and defensive and kinda threw some shade at you. It starts around the 35:00 mark. You are the best, he is an idiot.

    • Peter says:

      I love the guys who bring up rob’s misses. It mostly makes me smile that they so badly need to be right.

      Here’s a sample from Rob’s 2018 first draft he did before bowl games, senior invites, combine, or pro day:

      1. Josh Rosen

      2. Josh Allen

      3. Saquon Barkley

      4. Baker Mayfield

      6. Bradley Chubb

      This is where those players got drafted:

      1. Mayfield
      2. Barkley.
      5. Chubb.
      7. Allen
      10. Rosen

      That is a freaky close prognostication again considering this was before draft season kicked off at all.

  28. Blitzy the Clown says:

    I’m speechless

    https://thedraftnetwork.com/2023-nfl-mock-draft-trades/

    It’s gonna be a long pre draft period

    • TomLPDX says:

      As soon as we picked Bryce Young over Levis I stopped reading…

      • Peter says:

        That one was good.

        But maybe not as good as the bengals moving up from 28 to 2 and giving up a second round pick, a third round next year, and tee Higgins a very, very maybe great WR who would be a one year rental or Chicago has to break the bank for him…..yikes that draft.

        Foskey from notre dame at 12. And the writer says something about him dominating on special teams and grow into his role. At edge. Where we have three guys already doing nothing.

        Maybe foskey is the real deal but 11 sacks against a very inferior level of competition with three in a game from the mighty UNLV…whoa. try again writer.

    • Old but Slow says:

      This points out how Rob dependent I have become. You mean there is a whole other reality out there? Do some of these mavins use a dart board?

      It will be fun to look back at some of these after the combine. Changes are coming.

      • Peter says:

        Dartboard? That usually means just guessing but darts require some skill.

        Some of these mocks feel more like names in a hat.

        • Roy Batty says:

          It’s a bit early, but the silly season has begun with mock drafts.

          You’re going to see more and more mix up the usual top 20 with reaches and picks that encourage discussion in the commentary, and plenty of clicks.

          More of this will be coming throughout January.

          • Rob Staton says:

            We’ve reached the point of the year where people who haven’t spent a minute studying players now start telling everyone what could/should happen

            • Roy Batty says:

              I’m guessing they watch a player’s hype film on YT and make their decision. If that’s all they’re utilizing, then every single player in the draft looks like a future Hall of Famer.

              I guess it’s the same with the average fan. They hear the hype about a player, go to YT, watch the hype film and then get tunnel vision.

              Because of you, cha, Robbie and this site, I have become much more open minded and fluid when approaching the draft. I have my draft crushes, but I’m not crushed if the Hawks don’t end up drafting them. There’s always an alternative choice at every pick. They just need to be thoroughly researched. Hence all of us in here discussing this with everyone else.

            • Big Mike says:

              For example Rob, Nick Wright says Bryce Young will be the number one overall pick.

  29. Palatypus says:

    Three things:

    1) Is anybody else going to the Senior Bowl this year other than me? I will NOT be going to the game since they TRIPLED the prices (which still are not that bad), but I WILL be going to at least one practice. It’s fascinating. I’m hooked!

    2) Do we think any team is going to lose their minds and pull a Trey Lance/Mitch Trubisky move this year? There we SO many trades last year. If a team was going to do it, I think it would be the Jets. Imagine the Jets will Will Levis or Antonio Richardson. Good coach. Deep squad.

    3) Back in the 1980’s Sports Illustrated writer Rick Reilly wrote a hysterical article where he put the Designated Hitter on trial. Peter Gammons was the Judge and a couple of other S.I. lawyers were the attorneys. They called witnesses like Orel Hershiser, Mark Langston, Wade Boggs, Don Mattingly, and Boog Powell.

    It is time we do this with Russell Wilson.

    Rob can be the judge and Robbie and Cha can be the lawyers. We could do it on Youtube. I think it would be cool and really funny.

    3)

  30. Derek says:

    Alternatively, if I were Houston, I would remember those early DL picks that also don’t pan out… either to warrant the draft position or were ultimately busts:

    2013: Dion Jordan #3
    2014: Jadeveon Clowney #1
    2015: Leanard Williams #6
    2017: Solomon Thomas #3
    2019: Clelin Ferrell #4
    2020: Chase Young #2 (jury still out)

    Although, there are probably more DL drafted in the top 5 who have lived up to the hype rather than not, but it is food for thought for a Houston team desperately in need of a shot in the arm. I would pick the best QB on my board and come back with their second pick (currently #11 I think) and try to get a WR, OL, DL, etc.

  31. Mr Magic says:

    Well Im a bottle of red deep but here goes….. When you truly look at it it makes so much more sense for rebuilding teams to trade out of the top picks and teams a player away from winning now to move up to those spots depending on price. If you are Houston and you have almost a dozen holes in your roster is a #1 pick really going to change everything? Or is moving back 2-3x and adding multiple early rounders a better idea to fill our your roster with depth and talent.

    Meanwhile if you are a Cincy, Buffalo, Minny or Philly who are clearly ready to win now why not lose a few picks for a game changer who could truly put you over the top.

    I would expect us to trade back from at least one of our first 2 picks. Assuming we are not in love with any of the QBs especially. A few teams will have hard ons for the big 3 QBs and we can parlay that into a plethora of picks that could really add to quality depth if we pick as well as we did last year.

  32. MarkinSeattle says:

    I have been pulling for the Seahawks to lose for the last several games. Not so much for the draft position, but to push Pete over the edge into retirement. I think he made a horrible hire at DC and he won’t fix that unless we have a new HC. His decisions on his coaching staff hires have been poor for a while. Waldron May turn into a decent OC, but that isn’t the case on defense.

    My other issue with Pete has been his propensity to swing for the fences in trades and how rarely they have worked out: all the way back to Harvin we have consistently thrown away top draft choices for guys that have utterly failed to help out the team. As well as the Wilson trade has turned out, it has barely balanced the Adams deal (we might get lucky and it could outweigh it in the next two weeks).

    Yes the better picks would definitely help build talent on the team, but I agree that it is time for Pete to move on. Hopefully these last two weeks help convince him.

  33. Michael says:

    Rob – Tanner McKee has serious upside. If we give Tanner the same 2022 considerations as Levi’s, is he a top 20 talent?

  34. Romeo A57 says:

    Houston not drafting a QB in 2023 and focusing on building the trenches now may make be a prudent move. However since I have a financial investment on either Levis or Richardson being the first pick, I would like to make a few counter points.

    Their former Chaplain/President Easterby basically ran out of town 3 iconic Texans in Watt, Watson and Hopkins. Drafting a QB with the first overall pick may appeal to their casual fans.

    A lot of people are fans of players more than their local teams. A new hyped up QB can put butts in seats or eyeballs on TV screens. A #1 overall QB might also put the Texans on a Prime Time game. I have read that a lot of Patriots fans continued to watch Brady when he went to Tampa Bay over their hometown team. There were also a lot of people in the PNW who seemed to like RW more than the Seahawks.

    With Houston being a poorly ran franchise, they may decide that they can’t pass on a potential franchise QB even if there isn’t a surefire one available.

  35. cha says:

    Seahawks DL in 2022

    https://twitter.com/TansuYegen/status/1607739772063158273

    PC: We were really active, we did a lot to move him off his spot. But at the same time we need to improve. We will next week.

  36. BobbyK says:

    I’d love for Houston to take a defender. That’d help keep Anthony Richardson on the board. I don’t care if he’s green. He’s only 21. He’s supposed to be.

    His size, arm, and athleticism are too good to be a bust. I’m on his train, not the Geno Smith or some random journeyman trainwreck.

    If they do get Richardson, they they need to make sure they can run the ball even more in ’23 so they’ve got to get an interior OL in the second round and another RB by the end of day two. That’d still leave a 1st and 2nd for the defense. I know it needs more, but if you’re investing in a rookie QB like that – you’ve got to commit to him.

    I know they don’t have a lot of cap space, but in addition to a rookie G/C in the second round, that’s where they need to sign a quality FA too. And if they sign a proven RG, enough of the stupidity of moving him to LG. If that’s the plan, don’t sign him (or draft someone with the intention to move them to a different position). Or resign Lewis and actually put him at RG. Enough of the Gabe Jackson crap show.

    • Trevor says:

      Agree with this is Richardson or Levis are there then pull the trigger and build around them. They got a gift top 3 pick from Denver and should take full advantage of it. Love Carter and Anderson but if you can get your QB of the future it has to be the pick.

      #3 Will Levis or Anthony Richardson.
      #12 Bryan Breese or Tyree Wilson
      #36 Calijah Kancey
      #50 Van Pran or John Micheal Schimtz
      #81 Cedric Tilman or Kenny Macintosh (Hawks need WR3 and RB2 badly)

      • Matt says:

        I like it. The only change I’d make is I’d be shopping the shit out of the #12 pick. If we can pick up another 2nd rounder – we could virtually solve the OL situation (go C and G).

        Your first part nails my sentiments exactly. This is a gift of a pick. Like inheriting a bunch of money – are you going to blow it on cars or vacations or make a long term play that otherwise wouldn’t have existed without said gift.

    • cha says:

      I know they don’t have a lot of cap space

      They can create some cap without too much trouble. That’s not the problem.

      The problem is, will they then load the roster back up with middling expensive veterans? And will they structure their deals like they have in recent years?

      • Trevor says:

        I think that is the thing that drives me the most crazy about PC/JS. Pissing away cap space on mid level veterans on 1-2 yr deals to fill holes. Makes no sense to me and has led to a complete lack of depth on the roster and constant turnover.

      • BobbyK says:

        Definitely maddening wasting the cap space the way they’ve done.

    • AlaskaHawk says:

      After the crap they pulled on Lewis, switching positions and all, and considering that the team is in the bottom half of the league; I think he will try the free market and end up going elsewhere. He’s a decent guard and will get a good paycheck from someone. But I don’t think it will be the Seahawks.

      • BobbyK says:

        I’ve never understood drafting him as a RG and them allowing him to play there his rookie year, a season in which he played like a great pick. Then they move him, he doesn’t improve like 2nd and 3rd year players do/should and they leave him at LG. He even said he feels most at home at RG. I don’t remember when that was but it’s just mind boggling.

        When Pete first took over, he took a bust DT and created a monster out of him as a run stuffing DE. Pete doesn’t pull that Red Bryant stuff anymore, he doesn’t the Damien Lewis junk.

  37. ShowMeYourHawk says:

    https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/derek-carr-benching-clear-precursor-154613857.html

    Okay, so Vegas may be a threat to move up and take a QB this season, after all. Meanwhile, how this will affect Geno’s FA options with Carr available for trade will be interesting….

  38. Roy Batty says:

    If you’re a Broncos player under contract, do you even put in any effort on hard tackles, hard runs or in any way put yourself in a possible injury situation?

    I know almost every situation in the NFL is a possible injury situation, but the more egregious situations might just become a rarity in Denver, unless it’s someone fighting for a starting job or a new contract.

    • BobbyK says:

      I think you give your all because you’re a professional but you know darn well their heart can’t be fully into it either. That means even though you’re giving your all, you really aren’t or can’t with your heart already broken the way it’s been during their mess of a season.

  39. JimQ says:

    Being bored, I decided to try a PFN mock with lots of trades to move around the board to see what might be conceivable and realistic (or as conceivable & realistic as possible at this time). Here are my results:

    MY PFN mock with –multiple (6) trades — 12/28/22. “Building the trenches + a future QB?”. I kind of like it.
    (xxx) = NFLmockdraftdatabase,com’s – current overall rankings. Note: 2024 4-th, 5-th. & 7-th. round picks were used in these trades & were instrumental in obtaining a total of 7 picks in the top 80. I tried to think like JS and explored multiple trade options with each and every pick.

    3. Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia (2) (finally some big-time help for the DL, I hope he WANTS stardom bad.)
    17. Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech (7) (I wouldn’t take him at 7, but at 17 may be fairly reasonable)
    49. Jordan Battle, S, Alabama (54) (The other S options were gone, BPA at safety here & he isn’t too bad)
    56. Drew Sanders, LB, Arkansas (46) (I think he’s a lot better than many think, great overall stats.)
    65. Tyler Davis, DT, Clemson (96) (maybe a small reach here, BPA of top DT’s left at this point.)
    78. Zach Charbonnet, RB, UCLA (61) (too good to pass here, like his size/speed as a complement to K-9.)
    80. Steve Avila, OG, TCU (113) (IOL help is BADLY needed, also plays some OC, has some BAMF potential)
    115. Olusegun Oluwatimi, OC, Michigan (144) (not really a reach IMO, a BADLY needed replacement)
    143. K.J. Henry, EDGE, Clemson (115) (too good to pass up this deep in draft)
    146. Jonathan Mingo, WR, Ole Miss (132) (a blog favorite that maybe falls just a little.)
    164. Dorian Thompson-Robinson, QB, UCLA (*322*) (A potential QB of the future! Coach him up!)
    197. Zack Kuntz, TE, Old Dominion (258) (not a huge reach IMO, I see his ++size & +stats, he has potential)
    Draft Total = 2-DT, 2-EDGE, S, LB on defense + RB, OG, OC, WR, QB, TE. Selected in this draft.
    UDFA’s/trades/Vet-FA’s – CB (3/4), WR (2), OL (2), DL (2), LB (2). RB. – Should fill most remaining holes?

    • Roy Batty says:

      The trade downs in the mocks are even more ridiculous right now.

      I trade 5 times from the #3 and 12 and ended at the #18 and 19. I then had 10 picks, total, with 8 in the 2nd round.

      I had quality prospects at every single position of need, including Mazi Smith, AR, Kancey, Skinner, Gonzalez.

      It was the most preposterous thing I had ever encountered doing a mock.

  40. 805Hawk says:

    So, a comment on Twitter made me look up Goff’s stats this year and I realized that he and Geno are almost identical. Goff is actually slightly better in some categories. Geno 27-9 TD-INT, Goff 26-7. Geno total yards 3886, Goff 3959. Geno completion percent 70.7, Goff 64.5. Both are 7-8. Geno is 32 years old and Goff is 28. If you asked any Seahawk fan if they would like Goff as their QB, no one would say, “Hell, yes!” But ask if they want to resign Geno, and the answer for a vast majority is just that. Is it because Geno is ours, because Pete backed him, because he just looks more the part? I’m not sure I can put my finger on it. Also really makes me question the Pro Bowl selection.

    • Denver Hawker says:

      I respect Goff’s season, but that is a pretty big disparity in completion percentage (rank 1 vs 21)- Geno has been very efficient outside of the last few weeks. Their PFF scores also are far apart (82 for Geno, 68 for Goff). I wouldn’t say they are equal QBs this season and I think Geno deserves the Pro Bowl this year, even though I think the Pro Bowl is a joke.

    • cha says:

      Geno total yards 3886, Goff 3959.

      Of those yards:

      Completed Air Yards
      Geno 2269
      Goff 1931

      YAC
      Geno 1617
      Goff 2028

      Geno is throwing nearly a yard further in the air on every single pass attempt than Goff.

      AND he is 9.6% more accurate.

      Think about that. Nearly 10% more accurate than Captain Checkdown.

      It is not even close.

    • McZ says:

      If we compare two guys, it has to matter how many high-level targets were available. Did they possess a good complimentary run game? Are they supported by a good OL? Is the play design sound?

      Geno took 39 sacks; Goff 24, he had lots and lots of time in the pocket
      Geno had Lockett, Metcalf and Walker; Goff had an emerging Amon-Ra, and a rag tag RB assortment.

      That said, Geno’s numbers came down in the second season half, while Goff improved.

    • bmseattle says:

      So infuriating!

      What in the hell?
      Are they gaslighting us?

      Obviously, *they* control who gets in the game.
      Why do they always act like it’s something that is so difficult to accomplish?

    • Roy Batty says:

      Reason #12 of why the entire defensive coaching staff needs to be fired.

      How in the hell do you lose your top defensive pick “in the shuffle”?

      Has Pete been telling them that Bruce must remain the starter with the majority of snaps?

      It makes no sense, whatsoever.

    • Sea Mode says:

      Unbelievable (and infuriating).

      • Hoggs41 says:

        They say that all the time with the running game as well. ” We really meed to get more carries for blank”. Stop saying and start doing.

    • cha says:

      They’ve coordinated their messaging.

      Pete said the exact same thing earlier today.

  41. Matt says:

    I don’t know why even follow along Seahawks Twitter. On top of the, “Pay Geno $30M/year” and “Seahawks defense is really close to being great,” we are now in “Jalen Carter is a bigger Aaron Donald.”

    If it wasn’t for this blog and the community…I’d lose my sanity.

    Shout out to everyone here who makes the dialogue fun and worthwhile.

    • Rob Staton says:

      Seriously? Are they saying that??

      Aaron Donald — 66 TFL’s and 29 sacks for Pittsburgh

      Jalen Carter — 18.5 TFL’s and six sacks for Georgia

      • Matt says:

        Yep…the “film” guys are.

        • Matt says:

          Considering this teams history – nothing amazes me more than the assumption that no high pick, outside of QB, can bust or be less than perfect whilst addressing the QB position is met with a “just draft a guy in the 4th or 5th.”

          Sorry for the venting…this blog is the only reason I still follow this team. The brain trust of this fanbase is incredible (and not in a good way).

    • cha says:

      Seahawks Twitter. On top of the, “Pay Geno $30M/year”

      Don’t worry too much about that.

      I always agree with them.

      We’ve worked out how to pay Geno and not have it cripple the team too badly.

    • McZ says:

      Geno more or less replicated Russell Wilson’s 2021 season. In today’s NFL, that’s $25m minimum.

  42. Julian L says:

    Just a quick follow up to the last point in Rob’s post, perhaps they should play the Bowl Games as the first game of the pre season?

    In England, we have a football (soccer) match called the Charity or Community Shield (it changes its name quite regularly), played between the winners of the Premier League and FA Cup the season before. It’s the last preseason game and until Covid drew near capacity crowds at Wembley Stadium.

    Perhaps final pre season show downs in late August between top teams ranked according to their final standings the previous season, would set up a good scenario for Bowl Games in CFB?

    Other advantages are that all players for that season would be involved with something to prove before the regular season gets underway, including for freshmen, Seniors and transfer portal players. It’d be a late summer game, which would be great for tailgating and an added festival atmosphere?

  43. Stuart says:

    Big things happening in Denver!

    Not only did the fire the coach and his staff, the GM has been stripped of many of his duties and is likely to be fired after the draft.

    The bottom line as i see it comes from the committment to having a winner, with action, not with words (Pete Carroll).

    If the Hawks were in Denver Pete would be given a choice, step down or get fired.