Tuesday notes: Receiver and D-line thoughts

March 19th, 2019 | Written by Rob Staton

Jordy Nelson met with the Seahawks this week

Jordy Nelson would be a hedge for the draft

The Seahawks are going to draft a receiver. That’s not in question. There are just too many appealing options that fit their ‘style’. Eighteen players ran a 4.4 or faster at the combine. That’s the kind of speed they like. There’s also plenty of size and they’ve been looking for a dynamic big target for a long time.

If they agree terms with Nelson, very little changes. I think it’d be ‘Brandon Marshall-plus’. A bit more than the minimal amount they paid Marshall but still a deal they can get out of if needs be.

Trevon Wesco and Garry Jennings rising?

I’ve done two seven-round mock drafts for the Seahawks. On both occasions, Wesco and Jennings were included. Both players scream ‘Seahawks’.

Wesco is a Y-tight end with great size (267lbs) and length (35 inch arms). He still ran an excellent short shuttle (4.38) and the Seahawks have seemingly paid attention to that test at the position. He’s an excellent run blocker and could act as an extra lineman or even a H-back. He’s a fit.

Jennings ran a 4.42 at 6-1 and 214lbs and also performed well in the vertical and broad. He regularly made big plays downfield (a feature of Seattle’s offense). He competes for the ball superbly. If Nelson is a hedge for the draft, Jennings has the same kind of profile to compete for his job.

Yahoo’s Charles Robinson listed both players as rising prospects. I had Wesco in round three and Jennings in round four. That might be the range you have to draft both and it’s not beyond the realms of possibility Jennings sneaks into round three too.

Seattle’s draft priorities are clear

So far they’ve done nothing to address the defensive line or the receiver position. It’s very likely they’ll sign at least one player in both areas before the draft. However, we’re in the free agency period where cheap deals are signed. By and large, the big moves are over. The teams have addressed their market priorities.

At the moment Jarran Reed, Poona Ford and Jamie Meder are the only contracted defensive tackles on the roster. Naz Jones and Quinton Jefferson can play inside but it was revealed Jones would be a five technique moving forward and Jefferson has always been more of an inside/out lineman.

Clearly there’s work to be done here. With this being an excellent class for defensive linemen, it seems pretty obvious that Seattle is preparing to make at least a couple of additions via the draft.

As noted in Saturday’s latest mock, they often tap into the strength of a class with their first pick. Running backs a year ago, offensive linemen in 2016, receivers in 2014. Their highest pick at cornerback in the Carroll/Schneider era was a third rounder in 2017 — a year defined by the quality of the cornerbacks.

The safe money is on the Seahawks spending a high pick on a defensive lineman. By working on the O-line and at linebacker in free agency, they can use the strength of the draft to make improvements to the D-line.

If they decide not to make an investment at quarterback (which could still be the case, as we touched on yesterday) — the next likely target is receiver.

It’s fair to wonder how much longer Doug Baldwin intends to play for. Tyler Lockett is signed up for the long term. Apart from that, Seattle has useful role players but could use another dynamic wide out.

Assuming they trade back from #21 into the late 20’s (and possibly further into the 30’s or 40’s) — that looks like a range where the value at receiver could be strong. It’s difficult to project when a run on wide outs will occur. Seattle could trade back and see Marquise Brown, Deebo Samuel, D.K. Metcalf, Parris Campbell, Terry McLaurin, N’Keal Harry on the board.

They have another needs. They’ll want to add another tight end. They’ll want more competition at cornerback and at nickel. Those areas can be addressed in the middle rounds. We’ll see about quarterback.

The key thing to remember is Seattle loves traits. With the first pick they’ll shoot for greatness. They’ll want physical and athletic potential and they’ll try and coach it up. Speed, length, size, agility, suddenness, explosive power. They won’t settle for average. They never do. Not with their first pick.

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112 Responses to “Tuesday notes: Receiver and D-line thoughts”

  1. Trevor says:

    Agree completely with the depth at WR and DL in this draft it just makes sense that one of those positions would be the target after the inevitable trade back.

    Out of McLaurin, Campbell and Samuel who do you think would be the best fit for the Hawks?

    • Rob Staton says:

      Not sure I could decipher who is the best fit. McLaurin has that sudden quickness they like, plus the special teams value. Campbell is a bigger Percy Harvin and we know Pete loved Harvin. Deebo is very quick for his size, very capable of getting open plus a good return man.

      • stinger says:

        What are your thoughts on LJ Scott? What range does he fall to? Perhaps if it’s somewhere in the 6th, he’d be some great depth behind Carson and Penny. On the other hand, the roster spot may be better suited to a traditional fullback. Still, really like what I saw from Scott.

        • Rob Staton says:

          I think he will last deep into the draft. Underwhelming college career. He fits in terms of size/explosion but think there are better fits. I think Miles Sanders, Devine Ozigbo and Alex Mattison are better options.

          • Bigten says:

            Just out of curiousity, was Carson productive in college? It was he underwhelming?

            • Bigten says:

              Not that I like Scott. I think we need more of a james white (James Washington?) type of third down back.

            • Rob Staton says:

              No. He had some injuries but in his final year he ran tough. Stood out as a Seahawks type RB on tape and physically, thus why we projected him a lot to Seattle.

  2. stinger says:

    Let’s hope the board falls in our favor and trading partners are eager to acquire the 21st pick.

    It still feels like a trade for one of our players is inevitable. We need the draft stock, we need the salary cap relief , we can’t keep everyone in 2020. Something has to give or John will begin getting a rep for the trades he didn’t make.

  3. Nick says:

    Agreed about the freaky traits, Rob. For D line, the three freaky athletes that stand out for me in rounds 1-2 are:

    Charles Omenihu (1.71 split, 36” arms)
    Anthony Nelson (1.65 split, sub 7 second three cone, 4.23 short shuttle)
    Trysten Hill (you’ve pointed out his amazing stats)

    All three are pretty versatile defenders along the line. Nelson would need to bulk up more to play inside more, but his frame looks like it could handle another 10-20 lbs no problem. I’ve been spending my time watching tape on all three, and I’d have no problem drafting any of them from late first to mid second.

    • Rob Staton says:

      Hill has freakish athleticism for a man his size.

      Omenihu has length and agility and some nice traits but I wouldn’t consider him that ‘freaky’. I think there’s a chance he goes earlier than expected but I’m not sure it’s to Seattle. Nelson had a nice, complete, highly athletic combine. I found his tape to be a major turn off though. Kept waiting to see something to get excited about.

      For me Trysten Hill is an option based on traits. Jerry Tillery is an option based on traits. D.K. Metcalf at receiver. Parris Campbell for his incredible profile. Brian Burns. Terry McLaurin. Maybe Deebo.

      Montez Sweat and Andre Dillard but they’ll be gone.

      Good options.

      • Eburgz says:

        Love to see you considering Tillery despite the off field concerns. Wouldn’t be surprised to see both him and Hill visit the VMAC. Need to figure out who these guys are.

        Trystan Hill’s tape against Memphis was crazy good. Despite not playing until they got 21 points hung on them he tied his career high in tackles in that game (6 I think). Also, his stats went up this past year even though he was used in a rotational role. Not sure you can claim his stats were down due to being in the “coaches dog house” when his stats went up with the new coaching staff and not starting. Maybe he’s just best used as a rotational DL.

        Hill is a lot like Wren to me. He’s a physical freak but he tends to play over aggressive. Bull in a china shop. Things worked out in that Memphis game but in other games he takes himself out of the play by getting to farm upfield. Great get-off and motor though.

        All considered for me I’d say Tillery>Wren>Hill.

        • DC says:

          What are the ‘off field concerns’ regarding Tillery?

          • Rob Staton says:

            It’s been repeated a few times. Had a very strange and ugly incident vs USC where he kicked an opponent in the head and stamped on another guys ankle. Made some unnecessary headlines when he went on Twitter and liked a bunch of tweets saying Brian Kelly should be fired. Also has a ton of outside interests besides football so some are wondering if this is what he truly wants to do with his life.

            • DC says:

              So the ‘off field concerns’ are that he did something questionable/stupid with twitter & that he has ‘interests’ outside of football. Well… If those interests include dog fights, ‘happy ending’ massages, narcotics trafficking, etc. I would be more concerned than if it’s playing chess, tap dancing or stamp collecting.

              Just looking for specific examples of interests that would actually cause me concern. So far I haven’t found any.

              • Rob Staton says:

                Personally I’m worried about the pysche of a person who did what he did during that USC game.

              • TatupuTime says:

                That USC stuff is pretty ugly. That’s not really heat of the moment battle stuff. Kicking a guy in the head that is down with a head injury? Stomping a guys ankle 20 seconds after the play when he’s been laying there? Intriguing talent though.

          • JohnH says:

            I didn’t know either, so I looked it up. This article has video clips of the two USC incidents. Ugly, but honestly not as bad as I was expecting based on the way people were talking about it. It was also three years ago so hopefully he learned his lesson.

            https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/early-lead/wp/2016/11/28/notre-dames-jerry-tillery-apologizes-for-actions-in-usc-game/?utm_term=.51107f75959a

            • Rob Staton says:

              I’m not sure how they could look worse to be honest. A guy down hurt and he kicks him in the head. Then stomping on another guys ankle while he’s down injured.

              It’s the kind of thing you’d expect from Burfict.

              • JohnH says:

                It’s was bad no doubt, especially the ankle. The “kick” wasn’t as hard or direct as I was expecting from the descriptions. More intentionally walking into the guy’s head than rearing back and soccer kicking. Which is certainly still a really bad thing to do, not defending it. Just saying the way it was described made it sound different than it actually was.

                And none of it was as bad as Simmons, so I’d say the redemptive arguments made for him would apply as well.

                • Rob Staton says:

                  Why are you even bringing Simmons into this?

                  They are two TOTALLY different situations and not remotely the same.

                  People aren’t ‘forgiving’ Simmons just because aw shucks it was a while ago. There are reasons for that ‘redemption’. And just because he’s worked hard to change and repair his image doesn’t mean anything for Jerry Tillery.

                  If someone did what he did vs USC in a Seahawks game to one of our players, fans would be going nuts.

  4. Whit21 says:

    if i could guess now, i think they go after that 6′ + 4.4 speed David Moore type. If moore doesnt improve then they need to upgrade. He had flashes… but is way too inconsistent. he was a 7th rounder so. the only guy theyve used a high pick on was paul richardson..

    • Hawktalker#1 says:

      If Moore is determined to be more of a contested catch specialist and can’t consistently get good separation, I’d prefer we find a replacement that has higher separation abilities as that seems to have a lot more value for the Hawks and for the way RW like to throw to receivers that are already open and not “throw them open”.

    • GerryG says:

      Moore’s trajectory is still in pretty good shape. Not sure he becomes a starter, but he’s going into year 3 now, he can still become a really solid player.

      They still need to draft someone though

  5. Eli says:

    Auburn WR Darius Slayton is the guy I’m taking note of recently. Tested just as well as Jennings, has similar measurements but is a little lighter. He reminds me a bit of Paul Richardson if you squint your eyes

    Things I liked on some film I watched of him:
    – Gets off the line well, effectively counters press moves, and creates good separation early
    – Played inside & outside
    – High points ball well, and shows ability to contort body on difficult catches
    – Good runner after the catch, you can see his agility is there

    Some other things to consider:
    – Inconsistent hands; partly on him but also have to consider the regression his offense took this last year across all levels (o-line, QB play, etc.)
    – To the previous point, didn’t see him perform well on contested catches but again there’s a lot that goes into that i.e. his size, his QB, who he’s going up against
    – Doesn’t appear to have ran a full route tree, but I’m not sure many spread receivers do any more
    – Doesn’t always flash in run blocking responsibilities, but he seems capable/willing at the least
    – Since 2017 he had 6 TD’s of 50+ yards

    If a run on receivers happens early Slayton could be someone to keep in mind for sitting and waiting on. I like what I’ve seen of him

  6. JJ says:

    Rob,

    Who out of the receivers reminds you of Tate. I would love to find one of similar talents

    • Stinger says:

      Not Tate, but DK reminds me a lot of Calvin Johnson

    • Eburgz says:

      Deebo Samuel for me. Running back body. YAC ability.

    • Rob Staton says:

      Nobody is like Tate.

      Golden Tate was a supreme deep ball receiver with the build of a runner. Deebo Samuel has some bulk but is still a different body type and isn’t the same kind of deep receiver. Deebo is also quicker and more sudden on shorter routes and not as competitive as Golden. Parris Campbell didn’t run deep routes like Tate at Ohio State because of the offense. McLaurin is different, Marquise is different.

      Tate was quite a unique player.

  7. Eburgz says:

    Rob you hit the nail on the head with the early round WR options (Metcalf, Samuel, Campbell, McLaurin, Harry, M. Brown).

    Do you think AJ Brown could be added to that short-list? Like Campbell we haven’t seen him run the full route tree but he’s impressive with what he does.

    • Rob Staton says:

      I think someone could take Brown early-ish but it won’t be the Seahawks.

      • Eburgz says:

        Ravens is my guess. Could also see him going to the saints or Steelers and balling out.

        I tend to ageee with your assessment. You don’t see him with us because we already have Doug in the slot and he hasn’t shown much on the outside and going deep? Or something else?

  8. lil'stink says:

    Wesco really does look like a perfect fit. Seems like a (potentially) more agile version of Will Dissly. Soft hands, physical blocker, and is an absolute load to take down. My new main draft crush 🙂

  9. Aaron says:

    Clay Matthews to the Rams on a 2 year deal

    • cha says:

      What’s the deal? Rams don’t have hardly any cap space. I realize they’re going for broke with the squad as is before a big Goff extension and moving into an expensive new stadium they want to fill. Some kind of restructuring or releasing to give them some room must be coming soon.

  10. Zxvo3 says:

    Rob is there any chance McLaurin could fall to round 3? I see comments about him saying that he’s old compared to others in the draft and doesn’t have a lot of production. But when I look at him I see an asset to the offense and as a special teams ace. If it were possible for the Seahawks to draft Trysten Hill and Terry McLaurin it would be amazing.

  11. SamL says:

    Looks like Mathews is going to Rams. I really hope Seahawks will pick up Justin Houston. We could greatly extend his career by using him as a situations pass rusher. A line of Clark, Reed, Poona, and Naz/green on early downs with Clark Reed green and Houston rushing on 3rd sounds effective.

  12. HawkDav says:

    Well summarized Rob! I think this article is right on point regarding the Seahawks draft plan. WR and DL (which I assume includes EDGE players) clearly seem like the likeliest early picks. That said, I’m a bit surprised JJ Arcega-Whiteside and Hakeem Butler weren’t on your list of potential WR targets. Maybe that’s because they are lower on the list than those mentioned (late 2nd early 3rd) but the Seahawks have historically loved TD makers (and Arcega-Whiteside has been dominant in that respect) and unique athletes (Butler at 6’6”, 35+” arms, with 4.48 speed and physicality with the ball). I’m not sure I’m rooting for the Seahawks to draft either of the two but both seem like players that the Seahawks front office could get infatuated with.

    Separately, any thoughts on Kahale Warring? He seems to have some mid-round momentum as an impressive all around athlete with moments of great tape who is relatively new to football. On paper, that profile aligns with the type of player that the Seahawks seem to frequently target.

    • Rob Staton says:

      My list of receiver targets specifically referred to the players I believe will be taken in the range of 20-45. I don’t see Arcega-Whiteside or Butler going that early. I do like Arcega-Whiteside but he’s a box-out specialist and I’d question his speed and ability to win the way he does as regularly as he does in college. But I do like aspects of his game. Butler just doesn’t excite me. Long strider, too many drops, struggles to separate, slouched through the combine drills.

      I’ve seen one game of Warring. Looked like a great athlete in terms pf physique at the combine. I will watch more and then offer a take on him.

      • HawkDav says:

        Appreciate the quick reply and no argument regarding any of that assessment from me. Any thoughts on the DL who would be on your list between 20-40 if they went that route instead of WR? It seems like that might be limited to Simmons (due to injury), Tillery, Lawrence, Jones and maybe Hill at DT and Burns, Polite, Ferguson, Miller and Walker at EDGE.

    • Eli says:

      +1 on Warring. Been beating the drum on him for a bit now, think his ceiling could be massive.

  13. Jake says:

    Christain Wilkins would be a dream come true in Seattle. Wilkins next to reed would be a crazy good DT rotation with poona playing the early run downs. Not sure if he falls to late round one, but I’ve seen crazier things happen.

  14. SoCal12 says:

    Any thoughts on Miles Boykin? Had a great combine workout and seems to tick all the physical boxes on Hawks list. I haven’t watched much tape on him thought, so if anyone maybe follows ND could shed some light on him and if he’s a fit that would be appreciated.

    • HoosierHawk says:

      Watched every game he has played and the guy just keeps getting better. Never thought he looked fast while watching him, but his combine says otherwise. Big, strong kid who uses his body well and can compete for jump balls. Plus the kid blocks which I love to see. Separation is questionable in my opinion so not sure if he is a fit for Seattle based on what Rob says about them liking guys that can separate. I think this guy will make some team happy for 8 to 10 years. I may have rose colored glasses on since I am a huge Irish fan and this guy was one of favorites.

    • Kenny Sloth says:

      Small and slow. Almost a worse prospect than Jake Browning

    • Kenny Sloth says:

      My bad. Was thinking Myles Gaskin from UW.

      Boykin looks like a pro. He is good off the LOS and has that natural long speed to create separation. He’s schemed open on short pick routes despite having the agility to make a move off the line. Strong hands, really gets after his blocking assignments. Really pretty quick and smooth for such a big guy.

      He really expresses himself on the field. Fun player to watch. You could say he reminds me of David Moore in some ways. Little more bulk, little less explosive. Really smooth and makes it look easy out there

  15. Elmer says:

    Off the subject, but heard a rumor that McDowell is meeting with the Cowboys.

    The Hawks have moved on and put this saga in the past, but I hope it’s not the case that McDowell is healthy enough to play and just didn’t want to play in Seattle.

    If he really is at risk playing football, I hope for his sake that nobody clears him to play.

    • hawktalker#1 says:

      As much as the Hawks waited around to see what was happening with our 1st round pick, have him not play a down and collect millions, then have him consider playing for another team just makes me sick. Nothing illegal or unethical about it, just feels wrong. Perhaps I’m still butt hurt that we lost our first rounder that way. Part of me doesn’t want to see or hear from him again. But I do wish him the best. I know he didn’t plan on having an accident.

  16. Stinger says:

    Rob, have you watched film on C.J. Conrad from Kentucky? Looks like another solid y-tight end to add to the list

  17. charlietheunicorn says:

    I think we have some agreements as to the Seahawks needs that will likely addressed in draft

    TE
    DE/OLB/EDGE
    DT
    WR

    I also think a RB/FB and a OG might also be in the cards.
    A very slight chance of a OG/C type… such as Michael Jordan on day #2.

    I’m not against a QB, but I’m not enamored by anyone in the mid round area.
    I understand why Rob likes Grier, but I think he might be a little too soon, I’m thinking more like Jacob Dolegala might fit the team for a reasonable draft price (round 5 or later). Perhaps they think their current back-up is enough for this year and can bring in UDRFA Browning or the like as a camp body.

    • Eli says:

      Terronne Prescod, LG from, NC State is someone who’s popped on my radar I’m hoping to see more of. He’s 6’5 335lbs., earned ESPN 1st team all American. According to PFF he only gave up 6 QB hurries in 342 passing plays – also had the highest grade among all FBS lineman and graded well in both pass and run blocking metrics.

      Absolutely baffling he didn’t earn a combine invite but just based off what’s available he’s absolutely someone I hope we give a look to.

    • Aaron says:

      A third string RB to replace Davis and a legit FB are both positions I hope they target too. I agree that they also need another OG. Iupati is a veteran hedge and if healthy he might start over a rookie anyways. Fluker can’t be seriously counted on for all 16 games and Simmons is solid but injury prone. Don’t get me started on Pocic. I think he’s a C and only a C, however they seem to like Hunt at C even more than Pocic for some reason.

      • Eli says:

        If there’s one guy I think the community could fall in love with as a third-string RB, I think it’s gonna be Darwin Thompson out of Utah State. He’s 5’8 200 lbs., and only has one year of FBS experience but he made it count:

        153 rushes for 1,044 yds (6.8 avg.) and 14 TD, 23 catches for 351 yds (15.3 avg.) and 2 TD

        Diving deeper I think there’s a lot to like about him:
        – Wasn’t recruited out of HS so he went to a JuCo, no Power-5 offers coming out of JuCo. Wasn’t invited to the Combine. He’s always been the underdog and he acknowledges it. He likes that chip on his shoulder.
        – Gained 1,210 yards after contact and forced 61 missed tackles on his 175 touches. He’s small but he’s not a scatback. Converted 34% of touches into 1st downs or TDs
        – #1 in elusive rating for PFF last year
        – Not sure if there are any official test results on him but the reports I’ve read peg him at a 4.40 40-yd and 40.5″ vertical. Both those figures would have tied for 1st at the Combine.

        I watched his game this past season against San Jose State, and he completely took over the 2nd half of the game – would highly recommend checking it out. I think he’d be a perfect fit on our team and give us a crazy three-headed monster at RB.

  18. charlietheunicorn says:

    DA RAIDERRRSSSSSS

    The Oakland Raiders have signed Vontaze Burfict to a one-year contract (up to 5M), a day after the veteran linebacker was released by the Cincinnati Bengals.

    Al Davis is smiling right now. Such a Raiders move of yesteryear.

  19. GoHawksDani says:

    As for a special player, I think Campbell is probably the most special who might be available late 1st/maybe early second.
    Maybe Trysten Hill, but just if he has his question marks cleared.

    As for trades…
    To be honest, I might be fine trading Reed and Clark also for a good return value.
    I think Reed is a really good DT. But I’m not sure he’s a 10+ sack “poor man’s Aaron Donald”. Based on his last year product, he’d get 18 m avg with lower pays for the next 1-2 years but probably would have a 22-24M CAP hit for 2022-2023-2024. He has the same numbers as Fletcher Cox, but he’s younger and it’s possible he can be even better.
    BUT he was a much different player in his first two years. I think the truth lies between the two. He’s not a 1,5 sacks guy, but not a 10,5 sacks DT either.
    He’s probably a 5-6 sacks dude. He probably wants 10,5 sacks 12 TFL money. If we can get trade value for him similar to that production (top15 pick, and 3rd and 5th rounds maybe), I’d say take it.
    It wouldn’t be a CAP relief for now, but wouldn’t need to pay him a ton later either.
    With the top15 pick, we could probably take Dexter Lawrence, Christine Wilkins or Ed Oliver.
    And we would have a + 3rd and 5th

    Clark situation is tricky. We could remove 17 mil CAP hit and the need to sign him for 20 or more millions APY. He’s a proven commodity. He had 9 or more sacks, 10+ TFL, 18+ QB hits, 2+ FF, 1+ FR in every season of his last 3 years. And he had a breakout season (14 sacks, 10 TFL, 27 QBH, 4 FF, 2 FR). He has similar stats if we level the snap diff as Mack. We should get a top 15 (maybe even top10) and a 2nd round pick for him (and maybe a 6th). We could then get Rashaan Gary, Clelin Ferrell maybe. Or Hockenson, or Devin White or Bush and use that pick for the future. Or we could trade back and get some more draft ammunition and draft Polite, Allen, Collier, Miller in the second round.

    I’d be sad to see Reed and Clark go.
    But if we’d sign Lynch and Ansah for 20 mil total (which wouldn’t be much more than the Reed + Clark cap hit), and have a draft where we get guys like: Ed Oliver (Reed pick), Jachai Polite (early second round for Clark), T.J. Hockenson (first round Clark), Parris Campbell (#21pick), Jerry Tillery (maybe by moving up from early 3rd and the 5th for Reed and the 6th for Clark to late 2nd round), Amani Hooker in the 3rd, Derrek Thomas in the 4th and Alec Ingold for the 5th.

    This would give us 2 veteran passrusher, 2 DTs with really high ceiling, a good edge with potentials, maybe the next Gronkowski, the best playmaker on offense in the draft, a solid nickel CB convert, an inexperienced CB with good size and potential and a true FB.

    It’s a bit overkill rosterbation fantasy, but if they hit home in the draft, this could be a draft where a trade does not hurt that much for a solid return value.

    • Starhawk29 says:

      I think Reed is a good not great player, and I think he might be a sneaky trade candidate as well. Obviously I’d love it if they kept him, but I think his contract probably isn’t worth who he is as a player. That being said, I think your trade value is a little off. We couldn’t get a 1st rounder for HOFer Earl Thomas, we’re not getting 3 picks including a 1st and a 3rd for Reed. That’s a mediocre safety away from the OBJ trade and I’m not sure anyone will pay that for a good not great DT.

      • Starhawk29 says:

        Not to mention you don’t become a good team by trading away home grown talent for cap space.

      • GoHawksDani says:

        Yeah…no idea about current trade values. I’m not really an OBJ fan, but I think he worth more. He’s a proven player and although not sure he’s #1 WR in the NFL but sure he’s in the top5.
        I’d be against trading Reed for a mid-late 1st round pick. The most you could get from that is to replace him with a similar player on a cheap contract. But you’d also take the risk.

        As a player Reed is a lot less than ETIII. BUT… Safety position is devalued nowadays and Earl was injured a lot lately and he’s older.

        If someone thinks Reed is really a 8+ sack DT who is good against the run they might give up the goods for him.

        But the Hawks is in a bad position then…

        1, They think that Reed is really good, Reed also think he’s a top5 DT -> You need to pay top money for him
        2, They think Reed is good but not great ->
        Then you can roll the dice and because the other teams not rushing to get him, you probably wait until late season, next offseason to try and sign him. If he pulls out another great season you’re in a bidding war and probably lose him and not get anything (other than a comp pick) in return.

        It’s a catch 22 if Reed has no great trade value:
        If he’s a great player you might lose him for almost nothing
        If he’s only a good player, you don’t have a top5 DT (although you might be able to keep him)

        If you extend him now, he’ll command big money, so you might overpay him.

        Top paid guys make 16-17 million now. Next top contract could be for 19-20 million.

        Not sure Reed will listen to the reason that “You only had 1,5 sacks before”. But if they can figure out a middle ground and pay him 85 mil for 6 years (2019 counting in the 6 years – 14M avg, 10 mil this year which would be -5 million for our current CAP, then something like 12, 13, 15, 17, 18 and guaranteed numbers: fully for this year, then: 8, 8, 7, 6, 5 which is 51%), it could be a solid contract for both sides in my opinion.

        If he wants close to 100M/5 years 50+ mil GTD then we’re in trouble

  20. Largent80 says:

    Evidently Nelson didn’t sign yesterday?

  21. AlaskaHawk says:

    Clay Mathews goes to the Rams. Darn it, that team just keeps getting stronger. I don’t see how the Seahawks can get past them now. They keep adding to the defense.

    • King_Rajesh says:

      Doesn’t matter if Gurley can’t go because of the arthritis in his knee. Goff is nothing without him – you could see it in the Super Bowl. If Gurley isn’t 100%, Goff reverts back to rookie form.

      Plus, Clay Matthews is a scrub now. Dude is washed up, sacks and tackles have been cratering since 2014 because he’s lost the speed he used to have.

    • Georgia Hawk says:

      I would argue that they added a ton of “names” last year and the Hawks still had an objectively better Defense than them. I think this is a case that the whole is NOT greater than the sum of the parts.

    • Bobby Swagner says:

      I think it’s a desirable free agent location. Sunshine, nightlife, good coach, strong roster.

      I’d love to see them collapse!

    • Starhawk29 says:

      Frankly, they are in a tenuous position right now. Don’t underestimate the effect of the super bowl hangover, especially in a game where the QB played terribly. McVay is a good coach, but there is a whole lot of Harbaugh 9ers in this trend. Bad team hires offensive guru, takes bad 1st overall pick and makes him good, game built on running the football, defensive stars, and explosive offense. Lost Super Bowl in the second year as coach. The 9ers had really a 3 year run of greatness under Harbaugh, and thats about what I expect from the Rams too. Goff is not a good QB, and defenses will take advantage of that eventually. Their Oline just lost one of their guards and their best lineman is in his late 30s. Bunch of contracts end next year and they’ll lose players.

      Don’t get me wrong, I think they will be very good this year, probably will make the playoffs too. But we almost beat them last year, and I don’t think they’ll be significantly improved by adding Matthews. They don’t like playing us, not with the way we play physically. No clue if we’ll beat them this year, but they’re hardly an infallible team.

    • Boisehawk says:

      Clay Matthews became useless the moment the NFL cracked down on QB hits. Glad we didn’t get him, we already are one of the most penalized teams without him and I’m glad the Rams will reap those benefits.

  22. Hawktalker#1 says:

    Hey Rob, any podcasts coming soon?

  23. HawkfaninMT says:

    DK Metcalf situation is interesting to me. Neck injury aside (I assume there would be a full medical check), He is known to be raw as a route runner and general tactician at the WR position. O-Line coach gets so much credit/blame when it come to performance. What about the WR coach? I am asking this question out of general curiosity, as I do not know. Is the WR coaches out there that specialize, or have had a track record, of helping to develop these tall, athletic WRs more than the next guy? Our WR Coach seems to very well with agile, shifty, speed WRs… but with guys like Lockette, Moore, Mathews, etc they seem to scratch the surface then really reach that next level.

    Long winded way of asking, if Metcalf were available after a couple trade downs into the 30s, would an assistant WR Coach possibly be brought in to help develop him? Or am I reading way too much into the impact of a WR Coach on the actual performance/development of the players?

    • Rob Staton says:

      He can develop his routes. I’m more concerned about the concentration drops and the neck. Physically he’s an incredible prospect. But the question marks are there and teams will have a wide variety of grades for him.

  24. Rob Staton says:

    Jason La Canfora on the Wilson situation, written today:

    “I’ve long chronicled the looming contractual conundrum facing the Seahawks over Russell Wilson, and am well on record that the time to go all out to extend him was last offseason. At this point, I frankly don’t see much happening between the sides. I’m not sure there is even a deal that could be done, or a deal, if I was representing that player, that I would much consider signing, even at $40M per year. He’s been remarkably durable, the franchise tag money in 2020 and 2021 would be huge and with this such a unique time in the history of the game – broadcast rights back on the negotiating table in a few years; a new CBA needed in a few years; the NFL about to embrace gambling money in a way unfathomable even a few years ago – I would be in no rush to even really talk about a new contract at this point. From everything I’ve gathered, this process hasn’t even started and there’s been no dialogue.”

    Just illustrates everything we’ve been saying. Wilson camp not in the mood to even discuss a deal. Willing to play on tags. Impasse. Stalemate. So what are the Seahawks going to do?

    • astro.domine says:

      The question is, when you consider his advantage in delaying negotiations, is there any team that could get Wilson to sign right now? And if not, what trade value does he have?

      • Rob Staton says:

        Here’s something to consider.

        If he’s tagged next year and someone signs him to an offer sheet — Seattle can either match or get two picks. That might be what they ultimately want. That choice.

        • Eli says:

          I don’t know the intricacies of offer sheets, but does a player have to sign one if another team offers one? If we take La Canfora at face value, Russell isn’t interested in signing any extension – with us or with another team – and wants to go to free agency. In this scenario then he wouldn’t be willing to sign an offer sheet. Does anyone have any insight on this?

          • Rob Staton says:

            No. What happens is a player and team negotiate. If they agree terms the player signs an offer sheet. And then the original team, in this case Seattle, would be allowed to either match the offer and keep Wilson or receive two first round picks.

            • Sea Mode says:

              That might truly be the best possible outcome Seattle can fall back on.

              But I’d say 99% chance Seattle takes the R1 picks if it comes to that, because the offer would have to be astronomical to even pique RW’s interest before FA.

            • Duceyq says:

              I think Seattle can get a deal done this year and have too. (Before the La Canfora article) I mapped it at 39 mil a year at 4-5 years.

              The first option ($156 mil) 4 years allows him to make more than A-Rod and gives him a chance to reset the market sooner, after the CBA for even a bigger mega deal. The 5 year option ($195) is close enough to get RW to be the first $200 mil QB which will make him the first to eclipse that threshold. (Seattle can adjust by making it $39.3 mil)

              The reason now is best is because of 2 QB contracts looming, Mahomes and Mahomes…I won’t even mention Goff….it’s in Seattle’s best interest to pony up now before Mahomes signs anything.

      • Sea Mode says:

        That’s a great point as well about his trade value.

        A team would have to:
        1. pay him more than he would get on the tags, fully guaranteed, over the next three years.
        2. make it no more than a 3-year deal, so he can hit FA again after 2021 season.
        3. include a “no-tag” clause for when the contract ends.

        Right now he’s set to make:
        2019: $25.28m
        2020: $30.43m
        2021: $36.4m

        That’s a total of 3yrs/$92.11m. $30.7m/apy.

        So to make it worth it for Wilson, it’s probably 3yrs/$105m ($35m/apy, beating out Rodgers apy), fully guaranteed, with the no-tag clause.

        Would Seattle pay an extra $4.3m/apy basically just to be able to free up the franchise tag to use on somebody else? I don’t think so.

        Would some other team give up the bounty of draft picks necessary to pry Wilson from Seattle only to have to pay him at least this and face losing or astronomically overpaying him in 3 years’ time? I don’t know, but there are some desperate teams out there, GMs/coaches on the hot seat in “win now” mode…

    • H says:

      If Wilson’s camp would really reject $40m per year, what can we do? No team will trade for him to pay him north of that?

      Draft a QB in the next two years and enjoy the ride while we’ve got him I guess.

    • C-Dog says:

      Tag him until they have his replacement ready to go. If he and his baseball agent have no interest in talking contract extension, are they even going to find a proper trading partner?

  25. Sea Mode says:

    Holy smokes, Mecole Hardman! One of V12’s guys for a long time now.

    https://twitter.com/AnthonyDasher1/status/1108389813319802880

  26. John says:

    Hello Rob and all, I have been reading your column and most comments for a couple of years now.
    Occasionally, I think of putting in my 2 cents. Most of the time, reading through comments, it has already been discussed.
    Anywho, I am a firm believer in old school values. Control the clock, defense and tight ends that can block, with sure hands. I don’t care if they can outrun the defender for 30 yards, get to the 1st down marker and catch the ball. Zach Miller was perfect.
    That said, I know Dissly had a tough injury, but he was very impressive in his brief stint.
    Sounds like the TE’s you are looking at have the same makeup, I don’t subscribe to the 2 tight end formation other than possibly goal line. If Dissly returns to form, seems we have 1 too many.
    Thanks for your response.