Updated mock draft: 30th November

November 30th, 2010 | Written by Rob Staton

This week’s updated mock draft is now available by clicking here or selecting ‘Mock Draft’ in the title bar.

Sunday’s 42-24 defeat at home to Kansas City dropped Seattle to 5-6 and second place in the NFC West. If the season ended today, the Seahawks would pick 11th overall – a far cry from lofty expectations of a pick in the 20′s.

What it does do is open up a number of unexplored possibilities with regard to the draft.

If the Seahawks had a shot at the two wide receivers A.J. Green or Julio Jones – could they afford to pass up that opportunity?

It’s something we haven’t discussed much.

In this projection Green and Jones go at #8 and #10 – agonizingly close to the Seahawks pick. Not many people constitute receiver as a need. I think it is – just not as big as some other positions. Mike Williams and Ben Obomanu are both pending free agents.

Green and Jones are both rare talents with the potential to become top drawer NFL receivers.

If I had either dropping to #11, it might have been a serious consideration. Neither made it that far.

Instead I looked at the possibility of filling another need at a position of depth in next April’s draft – cornerback. Last week I had the team selecting Jimmy Smith 21st overall. Ten picks earlier and the team has a chance to possibly draft Prince Amukamara.

It’s a difficult year to judge Amukamara. He’s been thoroughly avoided all year except against Oklahoma State – when he struggled a bit against Justin Blackmon. On the other hand, Janoris Jenkins has performed exceptionally well against Julio Jones, A.J. Green and Alshon Jeffery.

Each of the three top wide outs had their worst game statistically this year against Jenkins. Teams will watch the tape, be impressed and grade Jenkins sufficiently.

That could drop Amukamara a little bit. Despite the value teams place on cornerbacks, you don’t often see a cluster of top-ten picks spent on the position.

The Nebraska wide out has the size and physical qualities Seattle wants at the position. I made the projection based on what I constitute a team need, best player available and scheme fit.

There’s no return into the first round for Jake Locker this week – again due to serious issues with his accuracy. Playing behind a poor offensive line has not helped Locker – but I’ve seen too many throws this year not under pressure that have been of serious concern. Even so – he has a chance to improve his stock in team meetings and work outs. His character is faultless. He does have an X-factor.

He could still be a top ten pick. I had to consider him for Minnesota, Arizona and yes – Seattle – in the top 11 picks. Jacksonville and Tennessee were possibilities too. This week he stays in round two.

The big mover is Nick Fairley – up ten spots to the 5th overall pick (Denver). I’m not yet convinced he has a great ceiling or that he’s worthy of this selection. You also can’t argue with the way he’s dominated offensive lineman this year and registered an incredible 11 sacks. He’s being graded in this range, so I have to represent that in a mock.

He’s not a perfect match with Denver – a 3-4 defensive scheme outfit – however, the Broncos need some beef up front and a guy who can get into the backfield whilst offering solid run support. They’d have to get creative, but I wouldn’t rule Fairley away from 3-4 teams all together.

30 Responses to “Updated mock draft: 30th November”

  1. Matt Q. says:

    Is Prince better than Brandon Harris?

    • Rob says:

      Harris has performed better this year, but physically Amukamara has the edge. I like both in that 10-15 range.

      • Jay says:

        Who do you think has the higher potential out of all the CB, excluding Patrick Peterson of course. I know it shouldn’t be but I generally focus on 40 times when I look at a CB prospect. So in this case I favor someone like Brandon Harris over Prince Amukamara. So on top of that, what are the things you look at in cornerbacks besides 40 time.

        • Rob says:

          For me it’s Janoris Jenkins. What I generally look for in a cornerback is recovery speed/instinct and performance against better CFB wide outs. Can a guy make a play on the ball when he’s out of position? Does he perform well against big, physical wide outs? Jenkins was responsible for Julio Jones, A.J. Green and Alshon Jeffery having the worst games of their season. He’s smaller than all, but you didn’t notice. He was able to make a play for the ball despite giving up inches and lbs. The one thing he needs to work on is open field tackling, but his coverage skills trump that issue. Harris has been avoided a lot this year and he hasn’t faced that many elite WR’s. Unlike Jenkins though, he’s a natural tackler in the open field. He isn’t higher on the grades because he hasn’t been tested that much, but in limited film I felt comfortable with his speed and hips.

  2. Matt says:

    I must say I’m not a big Prince Amukumara fan. Everytime I’ve seen him play, I’ve been pretty unimpressed. He’s got great size, but he just doesn’t look explosive for a top end DB.

    CB is a huge need, but I’d much rather settle for a round 2 guy if we can’t get Peterson or Jenkins, because I don’t see a huge difference between Amukamara and the second tier guys. (I’d consider Amukamara second tier, because I don’t think he’s anywhere near Peterson or Jenkins).

    What also scares me, is that he plays in a weird defensive system at Nebraska with a bunch of talent around him. Sure, you could say that about Jenkins & Peterson, but the only big time WR I’ve seen Amukamara go up against, he got burned big time. I’ve seen the other 2 manhandle some big time WRs.

    • Matt says:

      In this scenario, I’d much rather have Cam Jordan, Brandon Harris, or Robert Quinn. Jordan has great versatility. Harris has shown me more through out the year, and frankly I like Miami DBs. Robert Quinn has immense potential and could ultimately be the perfect Leo candidate (great size, pass rush, not a complete liability vs. the run).

      In all honesty, if this was where the Hawks were at, I’d prefer a trade down and accumulate an extra second rounder. That’s assuming a trade up to get Andrew Luck is not possible. I still think Luck is worth the price of admission.

      • Rob says:

        Cameron Jordan was the alternative choice I considered when I got to #11.

        • Matt says:

          It’s nice seeing all the alternatives. Great talking points Rob. Refreshing to see something new every week over re-hashing the same thing over and over.

  3. O says:

    Is this the first time you include Tyron Smith in your mock? I dont remember seeing him before.
    Without paying attention, he really caught my eye when I saw USC play this year. I didnt think he could be drafted that high, but then again he is probably the most dominant OT Ive seen this year (admittedly I dont watch nearly as many games as you do).

    ————-

    As for Amukamara, I was a huge fan until recently when Ive seen him getting burned by receivers several times now. I dont know if its him showing his limitations or if he is playing injured or if it was just great play by the opponent. Anyways, I have to say I like the idea of selecting a CB in the first round. Jennings has been serviceable at times, but thats it, Truffant is an average NFL CB, and Thurmond is young. Cassel and Bowe exposed our CBs as a soft unit (although I wonder if scheme comes into play here). Not that we didnt know already

    • Rob says:

      This is the third time I’ve had Smith in R1. Last week he was in the early 20′s and the week before the early teens. This is a big rise, but consensus appears to be at the moment that if any of this OT class are going to fight their way into the top ten, it will be Tyron Smith.

  4. Patrick says:

    I like Amukamara, and I really believe CB could make sense. After all, Bradford is only going to get better, and if Arizona upgrade their QB situation we need to desperately improve our secondary.

    However, let’s say this is how it works and we pick CB at #11. Where do you see us addressing the QB situation? Maybe 2nd round if Jake Locker slips (although unlikely). Take a chance on a 4th rounder? Just go free agency shopping, or even work a trade?

    • Rob says:

      In this scenario they’d have to weigh up their options. I have Locker slipping into round two – the Seahawks would be picking at #11 in R2. It’s not a stretch to see them drafting Locker there.

  5. Ralphy says:

    Great work as always Rob. I read this site daily and you do a great job. I’m not sold on Prince as Blackmon had his way with him and it sounds like others have also. I know you’ve talked about character concerns with Mallett but I would struggle watching the Hawks pick a CB over him in this spot. Do you know what types of character concerns are out there on him? He keeps on impressing me.

  6. O says:

    Rob if you stop by, I actually have another question
    I am quickly becoming a big fan of Owen Marecic, the kid from Stanford who plays both fullback and linebacker. I am not sure about his future at linebacker, but I think he is an outstanding fullback. I havent really focused on his game, but he seems at least very efficient for clearing rushing lanes, and is obviously a work horse.
    Given the state of our running game, I would be more than happy to see him play for us. Michael Robinson has been pretty helpful when healthy (I believe he has a completely different skill set tho).
    I have no idea where a FB, even an outstanding one, is usually drafted. Would it be insane for a rebuilding team to draft a FB? it kinda looks like a position you would fill once everything else is settled, which is not Seattle’s case

    • Rob says:

      I wouldn’t rule out the team drafting a full back. They’re determined to improve every aspect of the running game and they’ve missed Robinson in recent weeks. Obviously Marecic’s value will be limited to round 5-7 but I wouldn’t say the team would avoid the position. It’s a possibility, just late on. USC’s Stanley Havili is another option.

  7. Matt Q. says:

    I think the hawks should trade up to get Patrick Peterson!!! That would be awsome, he is my favorite player in the draft

  8. Matt Q. says:

    Also, what would it take to move from 11 to say 5 or 6?

    • Jeriod Klovas says:

      Too much. We have way too many holes to fill to give up picks to move up. Lets keep our collective fingers crossed that we keep losing. We can move up the draft board without giving up anything.

      • Matt Q. says:

        haha, is sounds werid but i kinda want them too lose, I love the seahawks but they need to get good draft picks. I think next year is the year that we need to win a lot

    • Rob says:

      It depends on how desperate the team at 5-6 is to move down. If a rookie cap is installed before the draft, that’s unlikely to be the case. If not – a team may not want to pay the big money and prefer a move down to accumulate picks. It could cost a first and second to get up to 5-6 or it could be as little as a 3&4.

  9. Andrew says:

    Hey Rob,

    Redskins fan here. This is a great mock draft and I think you do a good job with the placement. One quibble I have is with the Redskins pick. If the draft plays out like you have it up until the Redskins pick, I think they’ll take Robert Quinn. Jordan makes a lot of sense for the Redskins when we pick, but I believe target Quinn ahead of him. Washington is probably Quinn’s floor. There is huge support for drafting Quinn among Redskins fans and I have to believe he’ll be one of the top five players on our board. He’d make a dominant pairing with Brian Orakpo.

    The only other thing I was really surprised by was how low you have Adrian Clayborn being taken. I believe he’s still considered one of the five best senior prospects even though he’s been quiet this year. But go back to the Wisconsin game and he was very disruptive and got the better of Carimi all day long. Scouts will trust his skill set and collegiate production. I still believe he’ll be one of the top seniors off the board, and might even be favored over Cameron Jordan by some teams.

    • Rob says:

      Hi Andrew – thanks for the information on Washington. I’ll consider Quinn in future projections and he was in my thoughts here.

      On Clayborn – I have a lot of concerns. For one, he isn’t going to concern any NFL lineman with his speed off the edge. Secondly – he’s reliant on engaging his man and then being physical with an initial jolt and then capitalising when the OL loses balance. I’m nowhere near convinced that is going to wash at the next level. Even more worrying is the way he’s visibly tired in games this season. If you need to be physical to make up for a lack of pure speed and athleticism, you can’t be worn out in the third quarter.

      He is a sure tackler and has the required size to set an edge, offer good run support. He isn’t incapable of a pass rush at the next level, but it will be second to his run defense for me. That’s why I see him no predominantly as a 5-tech. But that would be something of a transition for him, which will also worry teams early.

      As for four sacks this year – it’s not good enough any way you look at it. He needed to do better than that. He’s not been an effective pass rusher, he’s not coped well against double teams. He’s down 7-8 sacks on the year and he’s tiring in games. Has he let his conditioning slip? Did he rest up too much thinking he’d be a high pick? Not sure – but it needs to check out. For me his stock is going downwards and I have to represent that in a mock.

      • Andrew says:

        The Redskins have a lot of needs on both sides of the ball. Lorenzo Alexander is their starting OLB outside Orakpo and he’s more of a rotational type than a solid starter. He’s also not much of a pass rusher. Us Redskins fans would jump for joy if we landed Quinn in the draft.

        As for Clayborn, I think you’ve got a point in his lack of production this year. Maybe he’s injured? One thing to keep in mind is that scouts trust Seniors more than they do Juniors. Take Trent Williams for example. He didn’t have a good Senior season but he was dominant his junior year. Teams like the Redskins, Seahawks, and Cowboys were willing to overlook his occasional struggles as a Senior and they ranked him ahead of comparably juniors like Anthony Davis and Bryan Bulaga, who I felt had better seasons than Williams did. Amukamara and Clayborn were the top 2 seniors going into this season by a wide margin. They’ll only slip so far on draft day.

        Regarding specific complaints about Clayborn, I know from watching his first couple of games this season that he was still flashing nearly every series and getting pressures without getting sacks. I don’t know if he slowed down after the first few weeks because I didn’t watch him, but by the Wisconsin game he looked disruptive again. I know he got at least one sack and strip off of Carimi, who’d been having a great season up until that game. For at least one game against a quality opponent, he looked like his old self.

        I agree that Clayborn isn’t an elite speed threat off the edge, which limits his value to 4-3 teams early in the draft. As a pass rusher, he reminds me of another former Iowa lineman in Aaron Kampman, so I think he could certainly be productive in a 4-3 front.

        But I’ve always viewed him as a potential 5 technique, probably because the Redskins run a 3-4. I think he could be very good in this role, and he’s already almost got the size to play the position right now. The past few years have shown us that 5 techniques tend to have very high draft position, so that could keep Clayborn being drafted early. But will he be ranked ahead of guys who already play the 5 technique position in college like Marcell Dareus and Cameron Jordan? You’re probably right that he won’t be. There will always be some discomfort in projecting a player into a new position in the NFL.

  10. Matt says:

    Rob,

    What are your thoughts on Demarcus Love? Draft position, skill set, etc?

    Personally, I think Love would be the perfect O-lineman for this team. Very gifted, physical, able to play a bunch of positions (we’ve seen this in game, not just hypothetically). If it’s true that he’s a 25-50 guy, he may be the type of guy you trade back up to get, because I think he is able to play LT in the NFL (insurance policy) as well as potentially being a great RT or even OG. He seems to move quite well and he’s not overly tall, meaning he could move inside.

    Personally, I think this is the perfect type of guy for the Hawks and if he’s not a cemented first rounder, I think he needs to be a top priority/trade target (moving up) in the 2011 draft.

    • Rob says:

      I have Love in the round two or three range at the moment. Not great technique in pass protection and he doesn’t have that elite quickness to project as a higher LT for me. No great shakes against the run. I’ve seen him get beat badly on a few occassions but then I’ve seen games when I haven’t noticed him – which is a plus because he’s protecting Mallett well enough. Like his hand use. Like his size. When he sets well he’s at his best. When he gets into a bad angle he looks akward. Can get better with coaching.

      • Matt says:

        I really like what I saw out of Love against LSU who is known to be loaded in the trenches. He showed his versatility which I think is a really underrated thing for a team who looks to be set at LT for the forseeable future.

        Would you have confidence in him becoming a good RT or OG with a little refinement? I think he has very nice upside for an O-lineman that is not expected to be a top 25 pick.

        *Also, not sure if you saw Walterfootball’s mock draft today. Locker in the 1st, Jimmy Smith in the 2nd. I have been down on Locker (and wouldn’t want him at 11 overall), but if you got him and Smith with the first 2 picks, I’d say that would be a pretty good start.

  11. Ralphy says:

    Rob

    Which player do you like the most who would go around where the Hawks will be drafting. I’m sure that with all the games you watch there must be a few players who you enjoy watching more than the rest.

    Also wondering what you think of Kendall Hunter? I love the way he plays. Great vision, always gets yards and amazingly strong for his size.

    • Rob says:

      Hi Ralphy,

      I try to avoid naming one prospect as a ‘favorite’. There are prospects I like more than others. Last year I made a lot of noise about how I thought Eric Berry was over rated – an opinion I didn’t read anywhere else. I wasn’t a big fan of Ryan Mathews, Jimmy Clausen or – funnily enough – Russell Okung. On the other hand I was very positive about a healthy Charles Brown, Sam Bradford, Earl Thomas, Derrick Morgan, JPP, Spiller. It kind of shows a mixed bag and how difficult it is to project impact players in the NFL.

      This year I’m a firm believer in Da’Quan Bowers. Andrew Luck will be the #1 pick. I’m a big fan of Janoris Jenkins, Brandon Harris and Jimmy Smith. I like Ryan Mallett physically and his ability to disect a defense. Stephen Paea I rate highly. You can throw the usual names in there too – Peterson, Dareus, Green etc. Best sleeper for me is James Carpenter at Alabama.

      Hunter has some value as a mid round pick. Not great size, not elite speed. Runs hard as you say. Think he can have a complimentary role for a team. Tashard Choice range.