Updated mock draft — two rounds

January 18th, 2019 | Written by Rob Staton

A few notes before getting into this pre-Senior Bowl mock draft…

1. The Seahawks are likely to draft a defensive player first…

…but it’s not a certainty. In this latest scenario I wanted to go in a different direction. It’s inevitable the Seahawks will trade down. They usually do and this year they only own four picks. So they’ll trade down at least once and get into the 6-8 pick range. It’s possible they’ll move down and out of range for the better defensive linemen. More than ten could go in round one. If that happens, they might see better value at a different position. And while it certainly could be Seattle’s priority to upgrade the defense this year — Pete Carroll also values explosive plays and has consistently sought more weapons for the offense. Golden Tate, Percy Harvin, Paul Richardson, Jimmy Graham, Tyler Lockett, Rashaad Penny. There are more examples. Could they take an offensive player with their first pick? Yes. Is a defensive player more likely? Probably. Will free agency have a massive impact? 100%. If they pull off a repeat of the Avril/Bennett heist from 2013, it could shift their focus in the draft. There could be some free agency value too given the strength of this draft class is without question the defensive linemen. One other quick note — if Kyler Murray drops, I think the Seahawks will seriously consider taking him for the reasons listed here.

2. Teams are trading up for quarterbacks

For the last few years we’re seeing teams aggressively pursue the top quarterbacks in a draft class. A year ago the Jets, Bills, Cardinals and Ravens all traded up for a QB. In 2017 the Bears moved up one spot to guarantee Mitch Trubisky while the Chiefs and Texans moved way up to secure Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson. In 2016 the Rams and Eagles traded into the top-two spots to get Jared Goff and Carson Wentz. And in 2015 the top-two were the teams most in need of a young quarterback (Tampa Bay took Jameis Winston, Tennessee took Marcus Mariota). Nobody’s really talking about it at the moment but there’s a developing trend. Teams are not waiting for QB’s to fall. They’re being aggressive. And the same could happen in 2019. Arizona and San Francisco would likely be very interested in moving down too.

3. Could the best player fall to #3?

Yes. No doubt at all. Nick Bosa will be top of many boards. His brother Joey was also a consensus #1 prospect throughout his final year at Ohio State. In the end he dropped to #3 because two teams (the Rams and Eagles) traded up to take quarterbacks. Could history repeat? Absolutely. In this instance the Jets would hit the jackpot. Their biggest need is an edge rusher. A year ago Sam Darnold dropped to #3 when many believed he would be the top pick. Nick Bosa could land in New York under similar circumstances.

Here’s the mock. It’s two rounds and includes trades…

First round

#1 The Giants trade with Arizona to select Kyler Murray (QB, Oklahoma)
Kyler Murray is the most talented player in the draft and is a worthy #1 overall pick.

#2 The Broncos trade with San Francisco to select Dwayne Haskins (QB, Ohio State)
John Elway admitted recently that Case Keenum is not a long term solution.

#3 New York Jets — Nick Bosa (DE, Ohio State)
Nick, just like brother Joey, falls to a lucky team owning the #3 pick.

#4 Oakland — Quinnen Williams (DT, Alabama)
The Raiders snap up a player who could remind Jon Gruden of Warren Sapp.

#5 Tampa Bay — Rashan Gary (DE, Michigan)
A former #1 national recruit — teams will love Gary’s upside and he’ll go very early.

#6 Arizona trades down and selects Clelin Ferrell (DE, Clemson)
After moving down five spots, the Cardinals still get a top-tier pass rusher.

#7 Jacksonville — Dexter Lawrence (DT, Clemson)
The Jags sign a veteran QB (Joe Flacco? Nick Foles?) and then draft a replacement for Marcell Dareus.

#8 Detroit — Jachai Polite (EDGE, Florida)
Polite plays with a relentless effort and regularly battled double teams at Florida.

#9 Buffalo — Christian Wilkins (DT, Clemson)
Wilkins will have an outstanding combine, teams will love him and he’ll go early.

#10 The 49ers trade down and select Devin White (LB, LSU)
San Fran swaps #2 for #10 and selects a cornerstone defender for the next decade.

#11 Cincinnati — Jeffery Simmons (DT, Mississippi State)
If there’s one team that won’t have any issue drafting Simmons, it’s the team that selected Joe Mixon.

#12 Green Bay — Josh Allen (LB, Kentucky)
The top-five talk is a bit rich for a player who needs to be stronger. He suits a 3-4.

#13 Miami — Ed Oliver (DT, Houston)
Ed Oliver is a wonderful talent. But what’s his fit at the next level?

#14 Atlanta — Cody Ford (T, Oklahoma)
Ford has fantastic feet for his size.

#15 Washington — Drew Lock (QB, Missouri)
Alex Smith’s future is uncertain but his contract is locked in. They need a cheap alternative.

#16 Houston trades up with Carolina for Greedy Williams (CB, LSU)
The Texans make a big move to solve a huge need.

#17 Cleveland — Marquise Brown (WR, Oklahoma)
Of course the Browns will troll the Steelers by drafting Antonio’s cousin.

#18 Minnesota — Devin Bush (LB, Michigan)
If he runs well at the combine his stock will take off.

#19 Tennessee — Jaylon Ferguson (EDGE, Louisiana Tech)
Major production, big talent — very raw.

#20 Pittsburgh — Byron Murphy (CB, Washington)
Highly competitive and gritty. Gets after the ball and hits like a hammer.

#21 Green Bay trades with Seattle to select David Edwards (T, Wisconsin)
The Seahawks traded with the Packers a year ago and history repeats here. Green Bay needs some new blood on the O-line.

#22 Baltimore — Mack Wilson (LB, Alabama)
The Ravens love to tap into the Alabama pipeline.

#23 Carolina trades down and selects Taylor Rapp (S, Washington)
The Panthers reportedly want to target the safety position this year.

#24 Pittsburgh trades with Oakland for Dre’Mont Jones (DT, Ohio State)
The Raiders make a big splash and trade a first rounder plus for Antonio Brown.

#25 Philadelphia — Greg Little (T, Ole Miss)
The Eagles like to bolster the lines in the draft.

#26 Indianapolis — A.J. Brown (WR, Ole Miss)
Getting their answer to Alshon Jeffery could be a key for Indy.

#27 Oakland — Zach Allen (DE, Boston College)
Excellent player (and Mayock surely can’t resit taking a BC defender?).

#28 Los Angeles Chargers — Jawaan Taylor (T, Florida)
Likely to kick inside to guard.

#29 New England — Daniel Jones (QB, Duke)
The Pats need to come up with some kind of long term QB plan.

#30 Los Angeles Rams — Parris Campbell (WR, Ohio State)
They’ll take all the weapons they can get.

#31 The 49ers trade with Kansas City for Jonah Williams (G, Alabama)
He’s overrated but here the 49ers jump ahead of Arizona to land Williams.

#32 Seattle trades down and selects T.J. Hockenson (TE, Iowa)
A run will start at the TE position in the late first or early second round.

Second round

#33 Arizona — Max Scharping (T, Northern Illinois)
Some think Scharping is better than Eric Fisher was entering the league.

#34 Indianapolis — D’Andre Walker (DE, Georgia)
Tough and plays the run well for his size.

#35 Oakland — Irv Smith Jr (TE, Alabama)
Another weapon for Oakland, acting essentially as a big slot receiver.

#36 Kansas City trades down and selects Johnathan Abram (S, Mississippi State)
After moving down five spots they take a tough, hard-nosed safety.

#37 Arizona trades down and selects Michael Deiter (G, Wisconsin)
The Cardinals get this for trading the first pick and continue to rebuild their O-line.

#38 Jacksonville — Noah Fant (TE, Iowa)
He’ll have a great combine but he was outplayed by T.J. Hockenson in 2018.

#39 Tampa Bay — D’Andre Baker (CB, Georgia)
He’s physical but undersized and needs to learn how to track the ball better.

#40 Buffalo — Andre Dillard (T, Washington State)
Some scouts reportedly see Dillard as the best pass-blocker in a weak tackle class.

#41 The 49ers trade down and select Montez Sweat (EDGE, Mississippi State)
This pick is acquired for moving down from #2 to #10.

#42 Cincinnati — Kaden Smith (TE, Stanford)
Smith will test well and could add to the run on TE’s.

#43 Detroit — Deebo Samuel (WR, South Carolina)
The replacement for Golden Tate in Detroit.

#44 Green Bay — Deionte Thompson (S, Alabama)
The Packers have a hole at safety.

#45 Atlanta — Brian Burns (EDGE, Florida State)
Burns has talent but how early can he go if he weighs 225lbs?

#46 Washington — Trayvon Mullen (CB, Clemson)
A good performance in the Championship game has his stock trending up.

#47 Carolina — Jerry Tillery (DT, Notre Dame)
He’s very athletic but how will teams feel about his Brian Kelly tweets?

#48 Miami — Elgton Jenkins (C, Mississippi State)
Apparently, Miami’s priority is to fix the O-line and D-line this off-season.

#49 Cleveland — Yodney Cajuste (T, West Virginia)
The combine testing will be better than the tape. He’s very explosive.

#50 Minnesota — Damien Harris (RB, Alabama)
Can they trust Dalvin Cook?

#51 Tennessee — Jordan Kunaszyk (LB, California)
He’s tough and physical and capable of going earlier.

#52 Pittsburgh — Rodney Anderson (RB, Oklahoma)
He’d be a first round pick if he was healthy.

#53 Philadelphia — Benny Snell Jr (RB, Kentucky)
Tough, productive, fast, versatile.

#54 Carolina trades down and selects Kris Boyd (CB, Texas)
The Panthers acquire this pick for trading down from #16 to #23.

#55 Houston — Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (CB, Florida)
CGJ moved to the slot this year but could revert back to safety.

#56 New England — Te’Von Coney (LB, Notre Dame)
A steady player who can help himself with a good combine.

#57 Philadelphia — N’Keal Harry (WR, Arizona State)
Talented with YAC ability but he can’t separate.

#58 Dallas — Gerald Willis III (DT, Miami)
Impact rusher who will excel in the short shuttle at the combine.

#59 Indianapolis — Christian Miller (EDGE, Alabama)
Has limitations but he will test very well and he has the right attitude.

#60 Los Angeles Chargers — Nasir Adderley (S, Delaware)
I can’t tell yet if the hype is warranted. Let’s see how fast he is.

#61 New England — Chase Winovich (EDGE, Michigan)
He just seems destined for the Patriots, doesn’t he?

#62 Kansas City — Austin Bryant (EDGE, Clemson)
Bryant could be a replacement for Dee Ford.

#63 Kansas City — Kelvin Harmon (WR, NC State)
Is he special enough to go earlier? I’m not sure.

#64 New Orleans — Alizé Mack (TE, Notre Dame)
The Saints don’t have many holes.

The trades in review

1. New York trading up for Kyler Murray
There’s no doubt in my mind that Murray is the special talent eligible for this draft and a potential superstar. The Giants need some excitement at the QB position and make a bold move involving multiple high picks to grab Murray.

2. Denver trading up for Dwayne Haskins
When the GM infers you’re a short-term solution, you know your days are numbered. Case Keenum wasn’t convincing in 2018 and the Broncos are reportedly seeking a more modern offense moving forward.

3. Houston trading up for Greedy Williams
I think Williams is a bit overrated as a top-10 lock but he is the best corner eligible in this class. The Texans need major help at the position so make a big move up the board when Williams lasts into the teens. The Panthers are willing to strike a deal because they want to move down and get better value at the safety position.

4. Green Bay trading up for David Edwards
The Wisconsin tackle has the kind of attitude you expect from Green Bay’s O-line and could be coveted as a long term replacement for Bryan Bulaga. The two teams made a deal a year ago and the Packers might be aggressive considering they own two first round picks. Here they give Seattle their third round pick and a little more on the side.

5. Oakland trades for Antonio Brown
If it wasn’t obvious by now, the Raiders are all-in on making headlines ahead of the move to Las Vegas. What could be more headline grabbing than a big trade for Antonio Brown? They have the draft stock to make it happen. Here they give up pick #24 plus change.

6. San Francisco trading up for Jonah Williams
Despite the countless mocks projecting Williams in the top-10, he looks like your typical guard-convert taken in the 30’s. Here the 49ers jump ahead of Arizona at #33 to take him. Both teams need to bolster their O-lines.

What it all means for the Seahawks

In this scenario, ten defensive linemen are gone in the top-20. It might sound unrealistic but that’s where this draft class is. Two more go off the board before the end of round one. Twelve D-liners in the first frame is about par for this draft. It’s expected.

With the Seahawks trading down from #21 to #31, in such a situation they might be forced to look at other options.

Montez Sweat is available and I paired him with Seattle last time. There are still legitimate question marks about his character, departure from Michigan State and ability to defend the run and become more than a speed-rush specialist.

None of the safety’s are particular appealing. It’s not a good year at the position. The top-three linebackers are gone.

In this particular mock my two favourite available players were Michael Deiter and T.J. Hockenson.

Deiter is the best guard I’ve seen in this draft. His toughness, experience playing across the line and size make him an appealing fit at left guard. I suspect the Seahawks will re-sign J.R. Sweezy and D.J. Fluker making this pick less likely. Deiter was a consideration though.

I went with Hockenson for a few reasons. The Seahawks love to work the board. Here the top defensive linemen are gone but the run on tight ends is just about to begin. Maybe in this scenario they anticipated that and got a player they really liked? They did it with Rashaad Penny a year ago — and similarly launched a run on running backs.

Ed Dickson missed several games and had hot and cold games in his first season. They can save nearly $3m by cutting him. Nick Vannett is a free agent after 2019. Will Dissly is recovering from a serious knee injury.

Considering they spent most of the year featuring an extra tackle as the tight end, it’s not a ‘massive’ need. They may wish to add a TE, however. And they have invested in the position previously — Zach Miller ($$$), Jimmy Graham (R1 + $$$), Nick Vannett (R3), Will Dissly (R4), Luke Willson (R5).

Hockenson blocks well (sometimes with real aggression), has a very fluid running style with the ability to get deep and he looks like a potential playmaker with the experience operating in a run-centric scheme.

The Seahawks might be very likely to select a defensive player with their first pick but Hockenson is an alternative worth considering.

If they move from #21 to #31 they should be able to acquire an extra third rounder and some day three compensation. This could enable them to pick twice in round three and have the kind of ammunition in rounds 4-7 to fill needs at receiver, defensive line, linebacker and in the secondary.

Hockenson might not last to #32. Or even to #21 for that matter. He’s a very talented player with major upside. Daniel Jeremiah put him in the top-10 of his first mock draft (although it’s quite an unusual mock with Josh Jacobs going in the top-five and Christian Wilkins dropping late into the first round — I don’t think either is likely). I’ll publish a deeper look at Jeremiah’s mock over the weekend.

Hockenson’s star is rising though — teams will covet his skill set.

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79 Responses to “Updated mock draft — two rounds”

  1. SamL says:

    If the Seahawks don’t sign sweezy because of age or injury concerns Michael Deiter would be a great replacement. However I would rather have him resigned and see the progression of Jordan Simmons and Ethan Pocic a replacements. That way we can focus on drafting more important things this draft.

  2. Alex says:

    The thing is… Carolina never trades down. Maybe they will with Dave Gettlemen in NY, but I think it was like 8 years straight with no trade downs.

    • Rob Staton says:

      Sure, but I doubt that’s a team policy not to trade down. Probably just opportunity and where they’ve picked.

      This year they are reportedly very determined to take a safety early. There isn’t a safety worth taking at #16. But with a trade down, they’ll be in range.

  3. FresnoHawk says:

    It will be interesting to watch what Gruden does with QB nothing would surprise me.

  4. C-Dog says:

    Carroll mentioned wanting to be better at third downs in 2019. I thought while the deep passing was great, Seattle struggled with intermediate passes. Having a TE that defenses have to concern themselves with probably helps both aspects. Does Dallas use Jaylon Smith to spy RW if there is a serious receiving threat to defend in that playoff game?

  5. BobbyK says:

    I’ll be curious to see what type of contracts Fluker and Sweezy command in free agency. I can’t imagine either will be highly sought after. By draft day, Sweezy will be on the wrong side of 30 and has missed 19 games in the past three years (and was playing hurt in the playoff game, though he admirally played when he clearly wasn’t 100%… that’s just how bad Pocic is).

    In this scenario, I’d almost be disappointed if they didn’t take Deiter. Although I like Sweezy and Fluker, they are not exactly ironmen. This team can’t be a power running team with Pocic making at least 20% of the OL power only in terms of powderpuff football. Even Jordan Simmons has been habitually injured throughout his career (including college), though he was quite good filling in for Fluker (who knows, maybe between Fluker and Simmons… they’d have two players who could start 16 games between them). If Deiter is there, running is your identity, and you’ve got any questions about the health of Sweezy especially if the contract he signs (assuming he resigns) isn’t much… I’d hope they’d take the guard. Guards may not be sexy, but look at some of those contracts they have signed for the past few years. Would be nice to lock up a stud OL for five years (only 4 years if he sucks, which I don’t think he will).

    I know Dissly got hurt, but I really thought he was developing into a core player prior to the injury. He blocked like a man and yet was a better receiver than many of us envisioned. They still have Vannett for one more year and Fant will be back if they want to go big, too. Would be nice to add a TE though, don’t get me wrong. I’d like to add to many things with too few picks.

    • Rob Staton says:

      I suspect Fluker and Sweezy will be quite cheap. Sweezy made reference recently to 2018 being his most enjoyable season. That having gone away to TB made him appreciate Seattle. I suspect he’ll take a deal — maybe for a year or two — with a plan to potentially finish out his career with the Seahawks. Fluker’s injury history and massive size (and lukewarm previous market) equally make him a likely team-friendly option.

      I think either way both will be back.

      I really, really liked Deiter on tape. I’m just not sure I can justify that pick. I want the Seahawks to get better in 2019. I think Hockenson would help them in that regard. I think with Deiter, there’s at least the potential for growing pains as with most young O-liners. I think, ultimately, they could still take a guy like Deiter if they trade down once, twice or three times and he’s the best player remaining. I don’t think they’ll reach for a position this year. I do anticipate them going defense though if the opportunity is there.

      I’ve never felt more anxious for the combine and FA to get here. Want to see how this plays out because it’ll tell us so much about the draft and Seattle’s possible approach to the draft.

      • TomLPDX says:

        Personally, I think Deiter is the better option. Pocic had a lot of trouble as a backup this year, it wasn’t pretty. Sweezy and Fluker are not 16 game starters (as much as we wish they could be) but at least Simmons is a solid backup for Fluke. I think we sign both Sweeze and Fluke but bringing in Deiter as the next left guard to learn and develop would be ideal, Pocic isn’t the answer.

        As for TEs, I brought up Jace Sternberger from TAMU a few days ago as a potential day 3 pick because the dude is solid and did his job during the season. He checks the boxes in the day-3 range. I also believe that Ed Dickson did an outstanding job considering he was on PUP to begin the year and won’t be released. He made clutch plays when we need them and helped make momentum shifts when we needed them most. He made his presence known! George Fant also did well as the 6th lineman/blocking TE and there is reason to think that he could only get better doing it next year. I see it as a need, but not a 1st round need. Just my $.02…

        • Rob Staton says:

          I really, really, really don’t like the idea of ‘left guard of the future’.

          If anything, the last year has shown the value of experience over rookies. It took Ifedi three years and a new coach. Pocic still isn’t there. It took Britt three years. Brown, Sweezy, Fluker — plug in and play.

          I want an impact player in 2019. Not someone who starts occasionally and then fills in at a position, to be fair, that isn’t a premium role.

          The point of this mock isn’t to argue TE is necessarily a R1 need. It’s to look at a possible scenario where it becomes an option due to the state of the board and the talent of Hockenson.

          • TomLPDX says:

            Actually, I agree with what you’ve said here but I was working within the scenario that you laid out in your article between a good guard vs. a TE. My point was that we are in better shape at the TE position than we are at guard, especially if we get Dissly back at full health. Honestly, with the uncertainty that we currently have at WIL, I’d want to look there as well. Cheers, Rob, and keep up the good work!

          • McZ says:

            Sorry, but Deiter and Risner are looking like day 1 performers, in the same sense Ramczyk and Dawkins were. Not so sure about any other OL in thks draft, but those two will make it.

            I’m really not sure about Sweezy. He had good games, horrible games, and no games. If we look at what made the Rams prevail where we missed vs Cowboys, it’s left side OL. We need options.

            • Rob Staton says:

              I don’t know why you said sorry at the start. I think Deiter will be a top-45 player and like him a lot. Risner will not go in that range, I am certain of that.

          • GoHawksDani says:

            Imagine the following scenario:
            game 6 and Sweezy went on IR in game 4. Fluker injured, so Simmons and Pocic manning the middle. But you have Hockenson

            OR
            The same situation but you have Simmons and Deiter and don’t have Hockenson

            Which player would have more impact?
            And this is a highly likely scenario (not the IR, but the situation that we don’t have at least one or both starting guards in a game).
            I’d love Hockenson, really awesome blocking on that videos and nice hands. But if this OL lacks really good OG plays we lose that game.

            This team should build upon great iOL play.
            They put Russ into a bit more traditional pocket passer.
            They run a ton inside

            I don’t need Deiter or other to beat out JR/Fluker day 1. But I think we should have a guy who can step up if needed next year. And a guy who can be a stellar inside lineman 2 years from now.

            We need a solid TE. But I think Dissly could be that. But I would love Hockenson. With more draft capital.
            Limited resources + moderate/questionable need + current offense => I think they won’t draft him. But if I’m wrong, I won’t be mad.
            If they can incorporate him into the gameplan, and feature him, and use him well, then I’m all for it

            • Rob Staton says:

              There’s every chance a rookie in that situation would be worse than Pocic.

              In fact it’s likely.

              Let’s not mistake Deiter for a seasoned vet here.

  6. Attyla the Hawk says:

    Interesting. I’ve been pushing the notion that Seattle might be interested in Hockenson for a bit now. Not only is he a very fluid athlete, but he also has a bit of Jay Novacek in him. In the sense that he has a real sense for how to find openings in a zone and the ability to separate at the last moment when covered to catch passes clean.

    More than the ability to threaten seams, Hockenson looks like his best value will be as a #1 target on 3rd and medium/long to convert first downs. He looks like a true every down TE capable of playing inline, attacking seams or making difficult/clutch third down conversions.

    Seattle’s biggest hole in it’s passing arsenal is working the short middle of the field. If Hockenson can provide that it’s basically like having a second Doug Baldwin on the team who can work a part of the field we concede right now.

    It also opens up chapters in that playbook where two tight end sets can be both run heavy and pass heavy from the same personnel. Seattle was 2nd in the league behind the Rams at running on third down with 11 personnel. Having two TEs that can motion out or in to alter the advantage at the LOS dynamically based on opponent personnel on the field is a significant advantage for a crucial play.

    It also greatly leverages our teams’ ability to extend drives where our R-R-P philosophy often puts a premium on delivering on one crucial play. It’s a real way to turn 3 and outs into 5-7 play drives.

    Adding Hockenson to me doesn’t diminish Dissly’s potential value or contribution in the future should he fully recover.

    • C-Dog says:

      You have me sold.

      • millhouse-serbia says:

        Haha, +1. Before this i was like TE is the last thing we need, but now…PC mentioned few times that 3rd down was our biggest problem vs Cowboys…so maybe they will use their highest pick to solve their biggest problem…just like with Penny and runnig game…

        • GoHawksDani says:

          I agree. Hockenson could be a great addition. But 3rd down was a huge issue in that game because our OL was manhandled. Our iOL was injured and weak. We cannot run effectively because Fluzy (a new potential name for Fluker and Sweezy? :D) played injured and couldn’t generate enough push. If we have 2 solid guards who are healthy then yep, gimme a playmaker. Just not sure we can say “We have 2 good and healthy guards” for most of the games with these 2

          • Rob Staton says:

            Fluker didn’t play against LA on the road. Simmons played very well. Britt didn’t play against the Rams at home. They played very well.

            They had a very good OL. Just drafting a rookie will not necessarily provide a cast iron solution if a guard gets injured. Rookie linemen struggle. Every year. It’s up to the team to find solutions to this, without necessarily needing to spend high picks. I’d argue Sweezy, Fluker and Simmons are examples that you can find good interior OL play without breaking the bank or spending high picks. So if you want a better backup than Pocic, fair enough. But it doesn’t mean they should spend their first pick on that player.

    • McZ says:

      Exactly my thinking, and this wa my thjnking behind proposing Gesicki last year. But TE is not necessarily the target, we could also opt for a sure-handed slot receiver in the Amendola mold, which brings us to Andy Isabella or Hunter Renfrow.

  7. John Gryffis says:

    Rob thanks for your hard work. Your well reasoned analysis is a welcome respite from the shrill, look at me antics of the “Experts” on Seahawks’ Twitter. The pick of at TE surprised me at first since there appear to be higher priorities such as Edge, Safety or Big Receiver. However another TE to compliment Dissly would be a tough combination to defend. I’m like John Schneider, I want more picks. What would the anticipated return on the trade down – a 3rd and a 6th?

    • Rob Staton says:

      Thank you for reading John. I’m glad we’re able to provide an antidote to Seahawks Twitter.

      I think a trade like this would likely net a R3. There’s a possibility they might be able to grab a late rounder too.

      I suspect they might trade down twice and try and get into the 7-8 pick range. Four picks just isn’t going to cut it. Trading down is inevitable — the big questions are…. how far will they move down? And what players and positional strengths will be on the board when they do need to make a pick?

      I’m very interested to see the combine and Senior Bowl. There’s some potential for some decent depth in this class. We need to see if it’s just potential or if it’s the reality.

  8. Bankhawk says:

    Too soon to tell about our Hawks, but no doubts as to the blog-Rob, you’re having yourself a great off season here! I don’t get to see much college ball during the year, so I have this tendency to go head over heels each time you post a new player-feature type piece. Love the idea of Hockeson as presented here and am wondering when you feel Khalil Hodge might go? Could they conceivably do the trade down, take the TE, and still net Hodge in the third frame? That feels like it’d be a nice combination punch to kick off their draft!

    • Rob Staton says:

      I’ve watched a fair bit of Hodge now. I think he’s probably a day three type. Rounds 4-5 I think. Some things to like but not sold on the upside, so not sure he goes earlier. Combine is big for him of course.

  9. Sea Mode says:

    I’m dead….! 😂This guy nailed the response!

    Donald J. Trump
    @realDonaldTrump

    I will be making a major announcement concerning the Humanitarian Crisis on our Southern Border, and the Shutdown, tomorrow afternoon at 3 P.M., live from the @WhiteHouse.

    2:51 PM – 18 Jan 2019

    Kentavious Warfare
    @yungscoobert22

    Replying to @realDonaldTrump @WhiteHouse

    Problem, I’m watching the Shrine Game tomorrow and frankly I need to get my football fix right now. I live for the NFL draft. Can you just push it up to 2?

    3:23 PM – 18 Jan 2019

  10. Sea Mode says:

    In case you’re like me and had never put a face to Tony Pauline’s voice even after all these years of following and listening to him!

    https://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/video/shrine-game-preview-6-players-who-boosted-their-stock

  11. Sea Mode says:

    Original copy of the Shrine Game measurements here:

    https://www.ourlads.com/east-west-shrine-game/Measurables.aspx

    The ones released yesterday on Rotoworld were incomplete and apparently contain some errors.

  12. CHawk Talker Eric says:

    I saw Jeremiah’s mock. Some interesting picks, like Jonah Williams at 18 to MIN. That’s pretty rich for a guy who’s likely moving inside.

    Any draftnik who doesn’t have SEA trading down in R1 hasn’t been paying attention. I think two trades down to open SEA’s draft is likely. They need picks, and the only way they get more is to trade down.

    Except… what if Murray or Simmons is available? Would SEA pick either?

    I’d argue in favor of either. Simmons is perfect for SEA’s needs. Notwithstanding his character concerns, from a strictly talent/potential perspective, he’s one of my favorite players in the entire draft. Russell Wilson makes Murray more of a luxury pick, but the long term payoff could be legendary. Who better for Murray to learn the game from than Wilson? Similar athletes, similar stature, similar ability to extend the play. A Murray pick could set up SEA for the next decade at the game’s most important position.

    I like Hockenson. He’s one of the most Seahawky TE prospects I can remember. TE isn’t a position of dire need like DT, but there are legit questions about the current group, so this pick is strategic. Also, why fight what the Board gives ya? I like D’Andre Walker, Johnathan Abram and Michael Deiter, but not more so than Hock. His 2nd level blocking is pretty good and he’s physical enough to take on just about any DB and some LBs. I think he’d do well in SEA’s locker room. I think Carroll could get the most out of him.

    • Eburgz says:

      I’d bet everything we don’t take Simmons. JS was very clear where he draws his line in the sand after we drafted frank.

      • Rob Staton says:

        I wouldn’t bet everything if I were you. I wouldn’t take that one comment from JS and attribute it to every scenario. They employed Tom Cable for years after all.

        Simmons will go very early anyway.

      • Hawks won’t take Simmons because he will go too early. They guy made a mistake and has spent years atoning for it and becoming a better person. That is exactly the type of character Pete and John look for.

  13. WALL UP says:

    I would guess the consensus all would agree to is that, the most valued position would be QB. Followed by, rushing the QB, protecting the QB’s blind side, and a WR receiving the ball from the QB, etc. Of course, this may vary according to team needs, or that adnominal freak athlete at the position.

    Don’t get me wrong, I would also consider picking Hockenson as well. But, not in the 1st Rd. He has good speed for a TE of his size, not blazing speed. He has athletic ability to hurdle a defender, not the freakish talent of a Graham in his prime (a 3rd Rd selection), Shannon Sharpe (an UDFA), Antonio Gates (an UDFA). Although Kellen Winslow Sr was (13th pick), he was a freakish talent, if you were able to see him play. Jason Witten (31st pick) was much slower and less athletic than T.J., but much bigger and a ferocious competitor, another down-lineman. Also, Greg Olsen (31st pick) like Jason, was a bigger athlete.

    I just see T.J. as a 2nd Rd value, not a 1st. The “GOAT” for TEs, Tony Gonzales was (88). Rob Gronkowski was drafted in the second round (42nd overall), which is where T.J. may be drafted.

    T.J. Hockenson would be an ideal fit for the Hawks. For the value, I hope they trade down again from 31, in that 40 range, and then snag T.J., if some DE doesn’t slips, like a Burns, or Sweat.

    There is great value at DT in Rds 3-5. Two I like in particular are Renell Wren and Khalen Sanders, in that order, with Jamal Peters sandwiched in between. Both possess pass rushing ability up the middle to push the pocket, and still run defend quite well. I like the interest shown in Hollins and Carney for the OLB & DE positions, rather than risking pass rush ability that hinders setting the edge in stopping the run.

    The more 4th-5th Rd picks they get by trading down the better. There is great value in those middle Rds.

    • Rob Staton says:

      I think Hockenson might surprise you in the forty.

      • Wall Up says:

        I hope T.J. has good numbers at the combine. It would be to the Hawks advantage that they’re not eye popping in the 4.4s. Luke, the one who denies the moon landing Willson, ran a 4.46. Even then, the league has guys that defended that quite well.

        T.J.’s game presents an element of surprise due to his blocking skills. His release surprised a lot of defenders. Dickson is adept at that as well, but with less speed as that of T.J. I really like him for the skills he would bring to the offense, the ability to find creases and open spots in zones, but not at that price. It would be interesting to see if Fant was targeted more so than T.J. in the defensive schemes. Regardless, he would be a good fit for their offense.

        You are right. The free agency will be telling as to which direction they go in the draft. It’s going to be interesting.

  14. charlietheunicorn says:

    Michael Deiter

    If you have a shot at one of if not the best OG in the draft… feel like he can fit the scheme and has the “nasty” you are looking for… you have to draft the guy. You need some insurance for players who have suffered injuries or might be at the end of their football shelf-life.

    I wouldn’t be opposed to this move. It would run contrary for popular thinking of a defensive player being the first pick in the draft. It also would work on getting a solid replacement as (at worst) a backup OG in year #1, but also a player that can develop and hit the ground running in 2020…. when the SB window is supposedly wide open for Seattle.

    TE / RB / OG are all real possibilities at this spot in the draft (late 1st round)

  15. Eburgz says:

    Surprised there is some pushback to mocking Hockenson to the Hawks. I think he’d have a bigger impact than Dieter (love Dieter too and his potential fit with the hawks). Dieter can’t score TD’s and we should keep our line together IMO. Doubt Hockenson makes it to the end of R1, he’s really good. He can run fast, block well and does not drop anything. what more can you ask for from a TE. Would love to have our own version of Kittle.

    I think Fluker and Sweezy probably get around 3M each.

    I’d still take J Ferguson (think there’s any chance he lasts?) or Z Allen over Hock if they were available.

    Also, hell no to cutting Dickson for a little cap space.

    • Kenny Sloth says:

      Go Hocks lol

    • Eburgz says:

      Just checked out DJ’s mock and everything makes sense to me besides Wilkins dropping to the end of the first. In his defense he says that Wilkins is a top ten talent.

      Hockenson goes #8. I stick by what I said the other day, legit R1 guy. We’d be lucky to have the chance to draft him at 21.

      In addition to Wilkins, he has Ferguson and Z. Allen (not in round 1) available where we take Sweat. I’d be bummed if we took Sweat over these guys but he does look like the kind of guy the hawks like (long & athletic).

  16. Picks says:

    History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes. I think Philadelphia is more desperate for an OT to protect Wentz and out bids Green Bay. I do like the Hockenson pick a lot though. Great athlete and really liked his separation. Wondering if he could be even better as a big WR split out

  17. Another great read and excellent comments. Thanks Rob and thank God for this blog!

    Pocic is an interesting one. Maybe his best use is a game day backup to five positions. He is not good enough to start at any, but good enough at all of them to finish out a game with a specialist like Simmons filling in the next week. Does he have any trade value? Could Tom Cable want him? That is another way to get more picks.

    Mistakes high in the draft have cascading effects for years. 2016 gave us Prosise and Odhiambo and 2017 brought Malik McDowell and Pocic. Two still have a chance to contribute but it will be almost shocking if it happens. If they hit on all of those does this team avoid the reset? How do they use the picks that tried to cover up these mistakes and the picks lost due to free agent signings?

    Wasted picks lower in the draft impact depth and competition. The Seahahwks are still recovering from getting two or less contributors in the 2013-2015 drafts. They got four in 2016, five and 2017 and a least seven in 2018 plus one good UDFA.

    So far I agree with Rob on nearly everything. (no qb controversy please(he will not make it out of the top 5)) This tight end might be just the thing to take them over the top. However, let me remind us all that it is health in the playoffs that seems to determine how far the Seahawks can go, along with home field advantage. When key players go down we lose to a healthier team. This year it was guards. We have seen it with DBs and the defensive line in years past as well.

    Younger does not mean no injuries (look at Dissly), but younger sure helps at the end of the season. A rookie guard might have a tough time at the beginning of the year, but he could make the difference in the playoffs. It is a trade off that could include exchanging late health for home field advantage. Then again, Simmons got hurt in only two games.

    It may also be why a 1st round pick was spent on a tailback. That position is too important and Carson had not shown the durability to give them confidence. I think Penny breaks out next year and the two headed tailback tandem is healthy all year.

    With home field advantage in mind, lets all pull for the Rams to win the Superbowl. We all know how tough it is to follow up a Superbowl win, and that team looks vulnerable to the chemistry/salary cap challenges that could result. Go rams! (ouch)

    I think KJ is gone due to cost/health ratio, making linebacker a priority in the draft. So there is TE, Guard and LB on the list, and pass rush is always on the list. Who do the Seahawks draft first? The difference maker. Who do they think makes a difference? In the past that was the freaky athlete, and they sometimes come with risk.

    One other observation: the Seahawks draft what they think they will need the following year. They have their eyes on the horizon and match future need with the strength of the draft. Last year they got some d line help and a tailback that look good and maybe a tackle and linebacker for next year. They got lucky on a cornerback, TE and punter that were starters in their first year.

    It was that excellent draft, a new offensive coordinator and great fortune with two guards that had the Seahawks outperform expectation this year. Next year should be better, especially if we can add a couple more starters and some good depth in the next draft.

    My pick? Zig when the others zag. Count on the d line already on the team to improve and take an offensive weapon first. Make it a tight end that can catch the ball and block and lets build on last years style and count on lower picks to fill in the defense.

    • Sanders says:

      I like the “zig when the others zag”. The Seahawks are definitely not worried about what schemes are trending in the NFL. Using two TE sets on offense, with two TE’s that are both good blockers and receivers, along with a strong running game would be hard for defenses to match up with.

  18. Trevor says:

    I really like Jerrimiah as a draft commentator but his mock made no sense to me and you have to think his placement of several players was just to create some discussion. No way Murray lasts that long it a guy like Jacobs goes that high for example.

    Still gives me hope that a guy like Dexter Lawrence, Simmons or Wilkins could be on he board at 21. I think Wilkins and Simmons are top 10 locks but you never know with Lawerence.

    In a perfect world the Hawks sign both Reed and Clark long term then draft Dexter Lawrence and we instantly have our DL for the next 4-5 years. Pete wants to control the LOS both running the ball and stopping the run. The two best players in his draft to help the Run D become a dominant unit again are Lawrence and Simmons IMO.

    DT Rotation of Reed, Lawerence,Ford, Meader, Jones
    DE Rotation of Clark, Green, Jefferson, Martin

    A base DL of Clark, Reed, Lawerence and Green could be one if the best in the league against both the run and pass. If Poona Ford , Green and Martin develop as expected the DL would be a strength of the team.

    • Rob Staton says:

      I found Jeremiah’s mock very confusing and don’t know whether to celebrate its originality or question the effort put into it. I’ll have some thoughts on it on the blog later today or tomorrow.

      • FresnoHawk says:

        Lol! I’ve learned over the years if you want to make $$$ bet against Jeremiah’s & everybody else’s picks.

    • Hawktalker#1 says:

      Given the Hawks have a growing history of trading down nearly every year, how do they not trade down in a year when they have only 4 picks and limited viable trade options to get more picks? (Also need to be cautious trading established players that you would only just need to replace with the new picks anyway – I see this suggested often)

      Since trading down (possibly multiple times) seems to be a forgone conclusion this draft, it’s reasonable to give up on assumptions that we would pick anyone at #21, TE or otherwise. Is seems more likely their first pick will come at earliest in the first half of the second round. That’s where I start looking for value.

      Also, we discuss various options for our first pick, but where is our greatest need? For discussions sake, is TE really the position that puts us over the top? Some are saying yes. It’s fair to say that for the Hawks there is no single position that does that. Picking a TE doesn’t necessarily fix our third down conversion issues. There are likely several pieces that need adjustment to correct that problem.

      We beat and nearly beat several elite teams this year. If we just fix the third down conversion issue, how far does that move us forward? If we run the ball better, stop the run, improve our secondary, improve our pass rush, . . . what differences do those changes make? Felt like we had better quality at TE than I expected this year so I’m not all in on the TE being the answer and the go to pick for our first selection and that being the answer to our conversion issue. Also, the need to trade down may hurt our ability to get a quality pass rusher, but I believe that is one of our biggest needs.

      We may be closer to turning the ccrner than we think. With PCs ability to get a lot out of a young team, just improving in one area and not digressing in any others could be huge! Just solve one of our problem areas and we could be a dramatically better team and with the additional experience of our young guys, the prospect for 2019 seems very exciting. What happens if we fix two areas (and no, I’m not forgetting special teams in there as well) I know that sounds like crazy talk, but when you’re this close to turning the corner, what isn’t possible? We did so much with so little this year, I found it very impressive to watch them over-achieve and am really looking forward to 2019. So much will be determined by this draft

      My hope is that even after the trade downs to get our draft capital where we need it, if we can have another draft year close to last year that help us solve some (more than one?) of our problems, we could be very young, hungry and dangerous next year.

      Go Hawks!!

  19. Ralphy says:

    Great mock Rob. Hockenson looks like a stud.

    Check out Isaac Nauta from Georgia. As I mentioned he was a five star recruit that signed on the same weekend that Jacob Eason signed. He had a great start to his career until Eason was injured and Fromm came in. In the same way that Browning had a hard time seeing Hunter Bryant over the middle, Fromm also had a hard time seeing Nauta. He is a tremendous athlete with great hands. We know that the Hawks like the former five star recruits and I have read that he is likely a third round pick. Here is a link to his freshman year highlights.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LhGXtc2_O90

    And how many TEs can recover a fumble and run it in for a TD like this?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iBak_LGlf0g

  20. AlaskaHawk says:

    How about Seahawks picking up Paxton Lynch? A nice reclamation project? Certainly better than Hundley.

    He has a passing percentage in the 60-70% range. Big arm.

    I would hate to lose McGough, I heard he is a free agent.

    • TomLPDX says:

      Unfortunately, McGough signed a futures contract with the Jags. I was hoping we would keep him around too

    • Hawktalker#1 says:

      I think Alex is gone. I hope we figure out quickly how much value Lynch has for us. Given how much he has underperformed to date, I would almost prefer another option that has more of pure unknown quality than a known under performing quality. Time will tell for sure.

    • AlaskaHawk says:

      Lynch’s agent said:
      “In a sense, we’re re-starting Paxton’s career. He does two things extraordinarily well, in addition to whatever else a quarterback is, and one is he throws moving outside the pocket. And at his height, it’s sort of amazing to watch him scamper and throw on the run. The other thing he does is he has a great deep touch. In Denver’s offense, neither of those skills were highlighted. It just wasn’t in their scheme. And so when we look at Seattle’s offense, we think he fits much better. And it’s a great organization… Paxton was a first rounder, we though he’d be a franchise quarterback. I think he still will be one day, but this is a good place for him to be.”

      Throwing the deep ball and throwing on the run are both skills the Seahawks like.

  21. Sea Mode says:

    👀

    Jim Nagy on Jonah Williams:

    Jim Nagy
    @JimNagy_SB

    Replying to @JonahTulsNFL [“I think Jonah Williams is a guard.”]

    If he embraced it, his best position would be center. That’s where he has the highest ceiling.

    7:46 PM – 18 Jan 2019

  22. Trevor says:

    If history is any indication the Hawks will trade back 1-2 times to pick up 3 addutiaional picks to end up with a minimum of 7.

    So who would be the most likely trade partners and why would they want to move up to #22 which is likely just outside the range where most of the prospects with trur 1st round grades might lie? Most teams needing a QB pick before 21 and team like NE / Oak who could be looking for a successor for Brady or to replace Carr have multiple early picks to address the position.
    It
    GB as Rob mentions makes some sense if they have a particular player targeted or maybe a team who is looking for a WR or OT prospect they have targeted. Just seems like #21 is kind of in a dead zone this year.

  23. Trevor says:

    The Pats have a ton of draft capital plus they have last years 1st rounder Isiah Wynn who I loved coming out basically red shirted after his injury in camp last year. The rich get richer seems like they are always one step ahead somehow.

  24. Trevor says:

    Hawks only have 4 picks but Dissly and Jemarco Jones coming back off IR is like adding two more day #2 picks IMO.

  25. Hawktalker#1 says:

    Ok couldn’t help myself . . .

    Way way way way too early mock draft draft version for discussion:
    (Using the picks as determined form some of the good work on draft trade tables from another one of our contributors from several trade downs)

    2019 Draft

    R2#34, DT/LB. D’Andre Walker (DE, Georgia)
    R3#73, EDGE/LB. Christian Miller (EDGE, Alabama)
    R3#86*, EDGE/LB. Chase Winovich (EDGE, Michigan)
    Austin Bryant (EDGE, Clemson)
    Ben Burr-Kirven (LB UW)
    R4#127*, WR. Andy Isabella (WR UMASS)
    Mecole Hardman (WR Georgia)
    R5#137, S
    R5#169*, CB
    R6#204, OL
    R7#236, K / RB

    • Sanders says:

      Using the first 3 picks on DE/LB defiantly add talent to the front seven of the defensive side of the ball.

      R2#34, DE/DT Charles Omenihu Texas, 6ft 5in 275 lbs. Omenihu could compete for starting job at LDE and kick inside to DT on passing downs.
      R3#73, DE Christian Miller Alabama 6ft 4in 244lbs. Miller could be Frank Clark’s backup & compete at LDE.
      R3#86, OLB Germaine Pratt NC State, 6ft 3in 240 lbs. Pratt looks to have the speed and length that our LB core need.
      R4#127, CB Jamal Peters Mississippi State, 6ft 2in 220 lbs. Peters seems to be the hot name for the Seahawks. Coach Carrol could work his DB magic and develop Peters into the next stud Seahawks CB.
      R5#137, RB Elijah Holyfield Georgia, 5ft 10in 215 lbs. Holyfield is an explosive RB that also runs with toughness.
      R5#169, OT/OG Derwin Gray Maryland, 6ft 5in 330lbs. Gray is a big man who would kick inside to OG and develop as a potential starter in a year.
      R6#204, FS Monty Fenner Townson, 5ft 11in 200 lbs. Fenner is a ball hawk with good speed. He can compete for playing time at FS and be a good special teams player.
      R7#236, WR Shawn Poindexter Arizona, 6ft 5in 218 lbs. Poindexter has the size and hops to be the jump ball receiver for RW.

      • Hawktalker#1 says:

        Sanders,

        Thanks much for your response and all the detail you added.

        Much appreciated!!!

        This is such an exciting time of year. But yes, I would still rather be preoccupied with talking Hawks in the playoffs!!! 🙂

  26. Donovan says:

    That Hockenson clip at 1:40 . . . Had to watch half a dozen times before I understood what happened on that play. Never seen anything like that snap.

  27. millhouse-serbia says:

    Where we can find Mel Kipers mock? For free. 🙂

  28. millhouse-serbia says:

    @chad_reuter
    I have Jacobs at 5 for my mock that comes out in February. Thanks for greasing the wheels for me, DJ! Bruce Arians has to see some David Johnson in Jacobs.

  29. […] Don’t forget to check out our latest mock draft, published on Friday, by clicking here. […]

  30. Sea Mode says:

    Both guys Seattle interviewed making some nice plays. Godwin has two TDs on back to back drives in the 3rd Q (just gets open easily) and Duhart made an incredibly athletic, full-extension, toe drag catch on the sideline to nearly convert a 4th down.

  31. GhostDancer324 says:

    As a Colts fan, I love the A.J. Brown pick.

  32. AnotherFineMess says:

    Great job as usual Rob,this site has become my first port of call during draft season.

    Thoughts on the Steelers-

    Agree that the price for AB ends up being somewhere during the 2nd half of the 1st.

    Spending the acquired picks on a DT and RB seem like a luxury we cannot afford to me.We have a strong starting 3 but depth needs to be addressed in the mid to late rounds.I think also think Connor/Samuel combo have shown enough to look elsewhere position-wise.

    Unless we make a rare big splash in FA I see our priority needs as follows-
    CB
    WR – If AB goes we are left with one starting calibre player.A deep threat is needed in my opinion.
    Edge
    A 3 down ILB.

    I might be ok using one of the 1st 3 picks to look outside these needs if the value is seen as too good to ignore but not 2 of them.

  33. GoHawksDani says:

    Just read that Kendricks sentence will be moved back to April 4th and most likely it’ll rule him out for the 2019 season (https://www.fieldgulls.com/2019/1/16/18185565/seattle-seahawks-linebacker-mychal-kendricks-sentencing-moved-back-to-april-4)

    Not sure how likely that KJ will be back with us. But if no Kendricks and/or KJ for 2019 then WILL LB would be the biggest need, right? I mean Calitro is mediocre and young, and Griffin would be destroyed.

    I don’t follow other teams that closely so I could know who could be a fit from FA.

    As for big names: Could Dee Ford or Clowney or Barr be the next guy instead of KJ?
    I know, these are likely 15-17 mil guys, but they can (Dee and Clowney) also generate pressure and younger than KJ. So it could come down to:
    A, Bring back KJ for something like 8-9m avg for 3 years. It would get us hopefully some good plays and hopefully at least 30+ healthy games. Get a guy who can get 7-8 sacks at least from the draft (DE/EDGE)
    B, Get Ford or Clowney for 18m avg 5 years. Hopefully would get us good plays and pressure, 80%+ healthy for games. That way we might have enough outside pressure (Clark, Martin, Green, Dee/Clowney, and other guys), so we could either focus on the inside or get a TE/WR/anybody else.

    (Other guys to consider potentially: Preston Smith, Shaquil Barrett)

    Not sure how versatile these guys are. Can they drop into coverage, etc?
    And obviously the money. How would the team get that extra 10-12 mil.

    So yeah…It most likely won’t happen. But if KJ seems like a too expensive option (anything more than 6m would be I think with his injury concerns and lack of sacks and other flashy plays (I saw the INT, and I know how valuable KJ can be, but he’s not a flahsy OLB, “just” a really good one). Then we need at least a decent starter OLB who most likely not currently on our roster, so either a rookie or an FA

  34. GoHawksDani says:

    Also, what do you think about Trevon Wesco?
    If we could get another Dissly-like guy in the 4th round or somewhere around that it would be a win in my book (article about him: https://www.fieldgulls.com/2019/1/16/18185080/2019-nfl-draft-scout-trevon-wesco-tight-end-preview-seahawks-projection-breakdown-tape)