Cordarrelle Patterson is a home run hitter. Can he be a consistent NFL receiver?
Tennessee receivers in focus
It amazes me that people still rank Tennessee’s Justin Hunter as the best receiver in the 2013 class (for me, it’s Rutgers Brandon Coleman or USC’s Robert Woods). Let’s look at the evidence – this is a guy playing in a pass friendly offense. He has a quarterback that can be erratic at times but does throw a sweet, catchable football. So where’s the production? We’ve seen sloppy dropped passes, an inability to have an impact in big games and just general mediocrity all year. Hunter has two good performances – against Georgia State and Akron. That’s it. He hasn’t scored a touchdown in any of the other five games he’s played this year against the likes of Alabama, Georgia or Florida.
It’s OK to talk about potential, but let’s see some real evidence as to why this guy remains a lot of people’s #1 receiver. He’s not a great downfield playmaker. He has a similar frame to A.J. Green but doesn’t run anywhere near the same kind of crisp routes. Green was a fighter – he gave as good as he got in the SEC. Hunter doesn’t have that same physical nature and without great speed and separation, he’s going to need to do a bit of fighting at the next level. The serious knee injury from 2011 can only be an excuse for so long. If he’s not making a big impression in this offense in college, is he really going to step in and be a productive receiver in the NFL? I’m not convinced.
Cordarrelle Patterson on the other hand has had an impact, but really only as a home run hitter. He’s not a consistent target and at times quarterback Tyler Bray has been visibly frustrated with the JUCO transfer. Patterson had a glaring drop against Georgia which rubbed out a big touchdown and was largely responsible for an ugly pick six against Akron. In his last four games he has seven catches – so he’s averaging less than two per game. Despite all of that… put the ball in his hands at any point in the game and he’s a threat to score.
No other 2013 eligible prospect has Patterson’s playmaking quality. He might not be making a ton of catches, but he is making touchdowns. Kick returns, reverses, rushes from the backfield – he does it all. I’m not sure how the NFL will view this guy. Some scouts will get excited about his playmaking quality and coaches will salivate over finding ways to get him the ball. Some will wonder if he just needs time to mature and pro-level coaching to reach his potential. Others will see Patterson as a gimmick – a nice luxury or project so long as you don’t need to spend a high pick.
He’s going to perform well at the combine. He’s a brilliant athlete with elite size and physical tools. If you can manufacture a role for this guy, he could be a star. But can he be coached into that role? Does he want success badly enough and how will he respond to fame and fortune? The best receivers in the league right now don’t get by on just talent alone. You have to work at this. You need to want this. Does Patterson fall into that category? Or is he going to be another diva wide out or a Devin Hester-type with all the incredible physical tools and ability in space but no defined role on offense?
The guy intrigues me in so many ways, not all positive. Every fan wants a player like this on their roster who is capable of scoring a touchdown any time they’re on the field. But fans also want consistency and reliability. They want to know if the quarterback throws the ball downfield, you’re going to catch it. Coaches and GM’s are no different. The video below shows what Patterson is capable of, but he needs to finish the season as a more rounded, consistent receiver. No more one or two catch games, please. But keep up the big plays.
Please, not another right tackle
Regular visitors to the blog will know I’m not a big fan of drafting right tackles early. In fact, I hate the idea. Conventional, cliched thinking in the NFL is ‘it all starts up front’. I hate that statement. There are plenty of ways to win in the NFL and it’s not just down to how well your offensive line performs. Super Bowl winners over the last few years have had passable, mediocre or even downright awful offensive lines. Having a great offensive line is just one of the ways to to earn success. Arizona went to a Super Bowl with lousy line play but they had an elite receiver catching passes from a veteran quarterback. Other teams play great defense and run the ball. Many rely on a great quarterback. There are many ways to skin a cat, as they say.
However, the ‘starts up front’ talk often falls into the draft. A lot of fans – not just in Seattle – pine for endless draft picks on the offensive line. For some teams this has worked (see: San Francisco) because they drafted well. For others, it hasn’t worked out quite so well. The Seahawks are currently starting two first round picks and a second round pick on their line. If John Moffitt returns to the right guard position, you can add a third round pick to that too. Eventually, you have to back the guys you have and strive for consistency. As a quartet Okung, Carpenter, Unger and Moffitt (or J.R. Sweezy) deserve time to gel.
Breno Giacomini isn’t everybody’s favourite player due to penalties, but he’s probably playing on par with most right tackles in the league. It’s a position of real concern for just about every team. As Mike Shanahan said in pre-season: “Everybody says we don’t have a good right tackle. I say show me who does?”
The best athletes are playing defense and it’s going to become more and more of a problem for the NFL. How do you find a guy who’s athletic and strong enough to block Jason Pierre-Paul? Or DeMarcus Ware? Or J.J. Watt? That player doesn’t exist. The guys who can just about do it play left tackle. The rest? They get bumped over to the right. And the guys who can play left tackle usually end up in the top ten of a draft. It’s getting even more of an issue with teams attacking from both ends. A lot of right tackles need constant tight end help or a double team block from the guard. It’s getting so hard for right tackles coping against the leagues elite pass rushers.
The Seahawks tried to draft a right tackle in round one. They went out and drafted Alabama’s blind side blocker in James Carpenter – a guy who enjoyed a sensational 2010 season and looked every bit a future franchise left tackle. He struggled on the right and has now been moved inside. There’s a lesson to be learned there as to just how difficult the right tackle position is becoming.
So what’s the solution? Consistency. It always comes back to that. Identify five guys and let them play. David Diehl, lineman for the Giants, explains: “People forget playing together for a long period of time is what makes you the best as possible. Now with someone getting hurt, or free agency, you don’t see a group together very long. When we had our best years here, it was when the five of us played together during that one long stretch. That’s what you have to have to have an effective offensive line. You have to have a lot of game experience together because there is so much continuity, fitting next to each other, being on the same page, being able to communicate when you can’t hear because of the noise.”
Short of drafting a Matt Kalil type and playing him at right tackle, the Seahawks best bet is surely to trust their guys? Give them the time Diehl talks about? The line play hasn’t been amazing in pass protection this year, but it’s improving. The difference between great line play and pretty good is not a new right tackle. Stick by the guys and keep building weapons on the offense for Russell Wilson.
This is a draft blog and we won’t ignore the position because of my own personal view, as strongly opposed to drafting a right tackle as I am. Jake Matthews and Luke Joeckel at Texas A&M are two of the better prospects at the tackle position. See below for tape on their performance against LSU last week.
Weekend notes
Games on the schedule this week: Cincinnati at Louisville, Tennessee at South Carolina, Georgia vs Florida, Notre Dame at Oklahoma and USC at Arizona. I’m particularly looking forward to watching Louisville quarterback Teddy Bridgewater for the first time, while also focusing on the defensive talent in Georgia/Florida, the USC offense against Arizona and just the pure intrigue of the match-up in Notre Dame/Oklahoma. I’ll put an open thread on the blog tomorrow so if you’re watching a game or prospect, tell us about it.
The number one priority of this team’s next draft is to find explosive playmakers and Patterson fits the bill. It would be awesome if Coleman (who national media still isn’t talking about) could “fall” to seahawks in the mid to late first round and then take Patterson with their second pick. That would give them two really big WR with deep threat potential and the ability to win the one-on-one jump ball if the safeties drop into the box.
Totally agree with not getting a RT with the first pick. You got to get players with upside and drafting a RT limits the upside unless you are getting a RT in the later rounds – where a starter is considered upside.
Going back to your last article – I also really like CJ Mosley. He is my favorite LB in this class to replace Leroy Hill on the weak side. I would be totally fine with the Hawks getting another first round LB like him however, the John has shown the ability to find a good LB later in the draft with KJ.
My first two choices would be tightend and wide receiver. Then we could look at the defensive line.
We should get a mid round RT/RG type. Last draft we were so desperate for offensive linemen that we tried to convert a defensive linemen to one. It’s a feel good story but reeks of desperation. Lets get the guys we need, not only for starters but also for backups. We haven’t had a healthy front line in three years.
If giving tom cable a little project to work on when he gets bored will keep him here, I’d be ok with us drafting one every year… Haha
“reeks of desperation” ???? IT WAS THEIR 7th ROUND PICK. Wow, most 7th round picks don’t make the team, maybe the practice team, but not the 53 man roster. The shear fact that he made the 53 man roster is a testament to the dudes talent and physical ability to transition into a new role so fast. I was reading another blog yesterday and they thought that with his physical abilities and size that the Seahawks could move him outside to RT, so there goes the need to draft one. The explanation on the blog was that with McQuistan/Sweezy on the right side you’d have a very athletic and fast right side of the line for pulling and quick running plays and on the left w/ Okung/Carpenter on the left side, you would have two mauling/road grating OL on that side. I really like that idea.
You can’t say that drafting a DL in the 7th round and moving him to OL is a “desperation” move, it generally takes guys a couple years to incorporate into the NFL, learn the position, and really hone their skills. Give the move some time, let him bulk up, let him learn the position before you go criticizing it.
I’d rather stack the defense then spend a pick on a RT in the first 4 rounds (a WILL backer, another DT, better slot corner, or even an ET backup – if there is such a thing). WR still appears to be our biggest need. Keep up the good work Rob! I had never heard of Coleman till you wrote about him. And that is why I read SDB every day.
Patterson reminds me of Josh Cribbs with more wiggle and instinct. Cribbs is rare in that he’s a great return man at 6’1″ 215… most potent NFL returners are under six foot. Patterson is even rarer- he has breakaway speed and flashy moves while playing in a 6’3″(!) body. Bo Jackson didn’t play WR, but he was a similar looking player in terms of size, speed, and moves.
I’d be just fine with taking a gamble on Patterson. I’d bet he’ll be a top 10 pick though- his physical upside is very high.
I still contend that the main positions to target in the first 3 rounds are WR, TE, DT, DE, and maybe QB. I do think the RT position can be improved and I would draft one in the incoming draft in the 4th or 5th round where good RTs can be found.
Rob – how about a story on how each of the 2012 first round picks is performing? I’ve lost sight of how Coples, Upshaw, Mercilus, etc. are playing, and your ideas on why they have met expectations, or been a bust, would be interesting to read.
And which later round defensive linemen excelled. There was someone in the second round playing really well. Maybe it was Jerel Worthy?
if it were me, and jake matthews fell to the mid second or late second, i am jumping on it. but i wouldnt draft him in the first just because it would be another first rounder on the line.
but i am curious on your thoughts of aaron mellette from Elon. small school kid that really fits what the seahawks are looking for as an X receiver in my opinion. and he has way unlike your guy coleman (who if he came out this year would be lucky to go in the third. next year is a different story. most likely a first rounder after some more refinement and production). he is not a game changer but is a big redzone threat and does have some wiggle to him. not top end speed but i can see him running a 4.5 in the combine and should be had for a second or third just because of his small school status. if he were in the SEC he would be a solid top 15 pick, and would probably be more of a finished product. alot of mellette’s bad drops or plays seem to stem from bad qb play from what i can see although i haven’t gotten to see any of his latest games. definitely a guy that should at least be on the radar.
Rob, I wonder if Sweezy could be converted to tackle for the Seahawks? He has a lean frame but is naturally strong and can take on the bull rush, yet he is also the fastest OL on the team and could potentially handle the edge rushers. Plus, I love his attitude, sort of another Breno but with a better handle on it.
Re the WRs, Amari Cooper of Alabama is the most talented guy in college football, but he is a true freshman, so I don’t think Pete wants to wait that long. The Rutgers guy, Coleman, who you have highlighted, would be good in round two. I think DL or LB in round one… lots of elite talent there this year, so someone should be available around pick #20.
“The best athletes are playing defense and it’s going to become more and more of a problem for the NFL. How do you find a guy who’s athletic and strong enough to block Jason Pierre-Paul? Or DeMarcus Ware? Or J.J. Watt? That player doesn’t exist. The guys who can just about do it play left tackle. The rest? They get bumped over to the right. And the guys who can play left tackle usually end up in the top ten of a draft. It’s getting even more of an issue with teams attacking from both ends. A lot of right tackles need constant tight end help or a double team block from the guard. It’s getting so hard for right tackles coping against the leagues elite pass rushers.
The Seahawks tried to draft a right tackle in round one. They went out and drafted Alabama’s blind side blocker in James Carpenter – a guy who enjoyed a sensational 2010 season and looked every bit a future franchise left tackle. He struggled on the right and has now been moved inside. There’s a lesson to be learned there as to just how difficult the right tackle position is becoming.”
I have to completely disagree with this one. Look at this post from the beginning of this season:
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2012/09/expect-even-more-passing-yards-and-why.html
Sack rates are going down in the NFL, not up. Interception rates are also going down, while yards per pass attempt are going up. Passing is getting easier and easier.
I also disagree with the idea that the best athletes are going to the defense. If you’re big and fast, you play offense. Who are the defensive athletes comparable to AJ Green, Julio Jones, Stephen Hill, and Justin Blackmon? If you’re smaller, you still often play offense unless you can’t catch the ball.
Now, as you start to get to big and burly guys, yeah, it gets tilted towards defense because the only position those guys can play on offense is tight end. Even still, we’ve got guys like Gronkowski, Hernandez, and Graham who are just flat out better athletes than their defensive counterparts.
As for James Carpenter, I don’t know remember anyone thinking he was a future franchise left tackle. The pick was pretty poorly received as I recall and has gotten deservedly poor results. But drafting a bad player doesn’t mean that position is a bad one to draft. You just need to draft the right guy. That said, I’d take a top receiver over a right tackle in a heartbeat if I’m the Seahawks. I just don’t know if there’s going to be a guy like that in this draft.
Isn’t this down to the way the game has become almost exclusively a passing league, rather than a review of pass rushing quality? And JPP, Ware, Watt, Williams – we’re talking about extreme athletes here that outclass nearly every offensive tackle in the league. They run 4.5 or 4.6 at 260+. AJ Green is what? 210lbs?
And whether anyone thought future franchise LT or not, the guy was a great blind side blocker in college. I studied the guy more than most pundits, talked about him in-season. It was a justified pick. Seattle tried to get a LT playing at RT and it didn’t work – and not for a lack of talent that’s for sure.
my biggest problem with greno can be seen at the end of the 9ers game. aldon smith had absolutely no trouble getting past him. then look around the league brian bulaga looked terrible against us and that is why the packers couldnt do anything. can you succeed without a good oline? yes! is it alot easier to will with a good O-line? yes! look at the redskins when they had the hogs and won the superbowl, they had a backup QB and RB (doug williams and timmy smith) that apart from that super bowl did exactly nothing, but the offensive line was so good that it didnt matter, timmy smith ran for 200+ because the lines were roughly twice the width of the field. i would much rather see us have a great offensive line then good receivers because a dominate O-line can win championships.