One of my regrets is that I often find myself saving my best write-ups and ideas for posts on the Seahawks.net draft message board, while sometimes failing to transfer those thoughts over here at Seahawks Draft Blog. That was especially true last year for Russell Wilson. Some of my best works have been on message boards. I have put as much as 36 hours into a message board post on a few occasions, ranging as high as 3,000 to 5,000 words. How anyone reads them, I have no idea.
Well here I am, another year and I am doing it again. Some topics aren’t quite blog appropriate, but today I’m linking a couple of works over there that you might find worthwhile reads.
The first is a “what I expect to happen” mock draft, in which I make picks not based on my own draft grades, but based on how I expect John Schneider and Pete Carroll to grade. There are certain assumptions I’ve made based on evidence that could prove faulty or dead accurate. I assume that because John Schneider was Ted Thompson’s right hand man that certain aspects of talent evaluation could carry over.
For example, Green Bay has mostly targeted receivers with excellent quickness and good/great forty times. Basically, they target YAC machines (yards after catch). Seattle’s notable receiver acquisitions through the draft process to date have included Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin, Kris Durham, Jermaine Kearse, Phil Bates, and Lavasier Tuinei. All of whom ran better than average forty times, exempting Tuinei, who was rumored to be a potential fast tight end convert. So when I look at receivers in this draft, I’m looking for speed, quick feet, and obvious yards after catch ability. Being a deep threat or having jump ball skills is also a major plus. In this example, I have Seattle drafting two receivers, one of them Kenny Stills with a very late pick. I feel that Stills checks all the criteria boxes and his game reminds me a lot of Golden Tate. That’s not to say that I think Stills is a late round steal or anything, I’m just saying that I think he’ll be a guy to watch later if Seattle opts for a second receiver. I think he fits the profile.
I also did a fun “what I would do” mock. It includes picks that might not be very likely or fit Seattle’s criteria, but are just players I really like. It also contains an argument for Jarvis Jones, who according to Tony Pauline is widely expected to be this year’s Da’Quan Bowers, meaning he will likely reach the 25th pick and beyond.
The value determination of the picks (i.e. player X is realistic in round Y) was based loosely on Tony Pauline’s draft rankings, which badly needs to be updated but have proven extremely accurate in past drafts.
Of course, this is all before free agency, and that of course will change things. I’m not expecting Seattle to do a whole lot though. There are indications out there that Seattle wants to keep out of the big money free agent receiver market. Jones and Branch are free agents and both have a high chance of departing. Seattle might dabble here and there in free agency, but I’m not expecting anything that will shift priorities. John Schneider as always will seek to build through the draft.