My first 2025 NFL mock draft

Round one

#1 Las Vegas — Shedeur Sanders (QB, Colorado)
Tom Telesco has always been a ‘best player available’ GM. For that reason, he might stick to his guns and select Mason Graham or Travis Hunter and target someone like Sam Darnold at quarterback instead. However, he could be mandated to take a quarterback here. Deion Sanders will have a big say and he and his son are said to have spent considerable time studying Tom Brady, now part-owner of the Raiders, in preparation for his NFL career. I’m not sure Shedeur warrants the #1 pick but I can imagine an arrangement where ‘Coach Prime’ and Brady work to create an environment which would satisfy all parties.

#2 NY Giants — Travis Hunter (WR/CB, Colorado)
The Giants don’t force a quarterback here because nobody warrants the pick and instead they sign Sam Darnold to a three-year contract. They look to combine a Baker Mayfield-style addition with a younger QB later on. That enables them to go for Hunter, who can be developed as a receiver or cornerback.

#3 New England — Mason Graham (DT, Michigan)
For me he’s the pound-for-pound best player in the draft.

#4 Carolina — Abdul Carter (DE/LB, Penn State)
He’s had a great year and teams will wonder if he can emulate another former Penn State star in Micah Parsons.

#5 Jacksonville — Will Johnson (CB, Michigan)
He’s had an injury plagued season but Johnson plays a premium position, he’s exceptionally talented and supposedly has top marks for character.

#6 Tennessee — Luther Burden (WR, Missouri)
Although he’s not been utilised fully in Mizzou’s offense, Burden has incredible talent and was said to be extremely highly rated by NFL teams over the summer.

#7 NY Jets — Tetairoa McMillan (WR, Arizona)
McMillan’s admitted he probably won’t test as well as some might think but he just shows so much natural skill on tape.

#8 Cleveland — Ashton Jeanty (RB, Boise State)
At some point early in round one, someone will select Jeanty. He’s too good.

#9 Chicago — Josh Simmons (T, Ohio State)
The best pure left tackle eligible for the draft. If the Bears want Caleb Williams to be a success it starts with crafting a better offensive line.

#10 New Orleans — Jalon Walker (LB, Georgia)
Walker has been the most impactful and consistent player on Georgia’s defense.

#11 Cincinnati — Colton Loveland (TE, Michigan)
Loveland was a victim of Michigan not having a passing game in 2024 but he has every chance to be a star tight end in the NFL, especially playing with Joe Burrow.

#12 Dallas — Jihaad Campbell (LB, Alabama)
Eric Kendricks has been a liability this year. Campbell has played like a tank all season for Alabama and has outstanding upside.

#13 Miami — Kelvin Banks (T/G, Texas)
There are certain teams who will be under pressure to invest in their offensive lines in 2025. The Dolphins are very much one of those teams.

#14 Indianapolis — Tyler Warren (TE, Penn State)
He’s just been so dynamic this year and there’s little reason to think he can’t replicate a feature role in the NFL.

#15 Atlanta — James Pearce (EDGE, Tennessee)
He hasn’t had the big sack numbers and there are questions about his ability to set the edge but his pass-rush win percentage (23%) is second only to Michigan’s Josaiah Stewart (24.6%) and is just ahead of Abdul Carter’s (21.2%).

#16 Arizona — Mykel Williams (DE, Georgia)
Physically he looks the part but he’s only played in fits and starts this year. The Cardinals need impact players up front.

#17 San Francisco — Tyler Booker (G, Alabama)
The 49ers have to fix their offensive line, it’s as simple as that.

#18 LA Rams — Jahdae Barron (CB, Texas)
Barron has had a brilliant season and can be used as a chess piece across the secondary.

#19 Tampa Bay — Malaki Starks (S, Georgia)
He’s had an underwhelming second half of the season but the talent’s there.

#20 Washington — Josh Connerly (T/G, Oregon)
Just a brilliant football player with rare athleticism and aggression.

#21 LA Chargers — Shemar Stewart (DE, Texas A&M)
Jim Harbaugh once took a chance on the raw potential of Aldon Smith and he might do the same with Stewart here.

#22 Denver — TJ Sanders (DT, South Carolina)
Sanders has shown he can take over games, including against quality opponents in the SEC. His 13.2% pass-rush win percentage is similar to Mason Graham’s (13.1%).

#23 Seattle — Drew Allar (QB, Penn State)
Eventually John Schneider will invest in a quarterback. Allar’s traits match what he’s looked for in the past. He’s far from the finished article but he’s the exact same height and weight as Josh Allen, has plus athleticism and a big arm. The Seahawks renew Geno Smith’s contract on a compromise deal to suit both parties and select their bridge to the future in a range where they know they can get him. More on Seattle’s picks at the end of the mock.

#24 Baltimore — Jonah Savaiinaea (T/G, Arizona)
I think he’s a right guard because he gives up too many pressures at right tackle. When he’s squared-up he can win with power. However, the Ravens were willing to start Daniel Faalele at right tackle, so they might try Savaiinaea there first.

#25 Houston — Donovan Jackson (G, Ohio State)
The Texans are virtually obliged to add to their offensive line after a horror year for C.J. Stroud. Jackson is a great athlete, the opposite of Houston’s former first round bust Kenyon Green.

#26 Green Bay — Mike Green (EDGE, Marshall)
His production this year has been really impressive with 17 sacks and a 20.3% pass-rush win percentage.

#27 Pittsburgh — Nick Emmanwori (S, South Carolina)
The Steelers like big, physical, highly athletic players. Emmanwori can be their version of Kyle Hamilton.

#28 Minnesota — Walter Nolen (DT, Ole Miss)
He took over games at times (see: Florida) but in other contests you wanted to see more from him. Finished with six sacks.

#29 Buffalo — Princely Umanmielen (DE, Ole Miss)
When he wants to be, Umanmielen can be really good. His motor runs hot and cold but the talent is there. He had 11 sacks and a 20.6% pass-rush win percentage this season.

#30 Philadelphia — Will Campbell (T/G, LSU)
He’s a very good athlete but all this talk of the top-10 doesn’t chime with the tape. He can be passive, he lacks aggression and he’s been beaten way too often off the edge. He has short arms and will likely have to kick inside.

#31 Kansas City — Grey Zabel (T, North Dakota State)
One of my favourite players in the draft. Just brilliant fun to watch and I think he has a very bright future.

#32 Cleveland (v/DET) — Cam Ward (QB, Miami)
Ward has had a very good season and elevated his stock — but not qualifying for the playoffs robbed him of a serious test having faced a soft ACC schedule in 2024. It’s hard to imagine he elevated his stock from day three to top-five but a team will potentially take him in the top-45. I have the Browns trading up to take him late in round one in a deal with the Lions.

Round two

#33 Las Vegas — Emeka Egbuka (WR, Ohio State)
A reliable target for Shedeur.

#34 NY Giants — Kaleb Johnson (RB, Iowa)
Johnson has star potential.

#35 Jacksonville — Kenneth Grant (DT, Michigan)
People keep saying he’ll go in the top-20 but I didn’t see that on tape.

#36 New England — Aireontae Ersery (T/G, Minnesota)
I think he’s too sluggish with his footwork to stick at left tackle but the options aren’t great if you want to improve at the position.

#37 NY Jets — Harold Fannin Jr. (TE, Bowling Green)
He could be a X-factor weapon in the NFL.

#38 Tennessee — Nic Scourton (DE, Texas A&M)
Players like Scourton — bigger defensive ends — always get mocked in round one. Then like AJ Epenesa and Boogie Basham, they go in round two.

#39 Detroit (v/CLE) — Josaiah Stewart (EDGE, Michigan)
He had a great season, wrecked the USC game and led the NCAA for pass-rush win percentage. Testing will be key for Stewart.

#40 Chicago (v/CAR) — Benjamin Morrison (CB, Notre Dame)
He would’ve gone in round one without the injury.

#41 New Orleans — Xavier Restrepo (WR,Miami)
There’s just something about Restrepo which makes me think he’ll go earlier than people are projecting.

#42 Chicago — Jared Ivey (DE, Ole Miss)
Ivey showed flashes this year, particularly against Georgia, to think he can be an effective NFL rusher.

#43 Cincinnati — Shavon Revel (CB, East Carolina)
Another player who would’ve been a first round pick but for his injury.

#44 Dallas — Deone Walker (DT, Kentucky)
He’s aggressive and tough but doesn’t have a typical body type.

#45 San Francisco — Quinn Ewers (QB, Texas)
I’m not convinced the 49ers are going to pay Brock Purdy a massive contract. Thus, they might add Ewers as insurance and just let 2025 play out. Ewers could be a good fit for Kyle Shanahan.

#46 Miami — Kevin Winston Jr (S, Penn State)
Injury robbed him of an opportunity to go earlier than this.

#47 Indianapolis — Mansoor Delane (CB, Virginia Tech)
He has the traits needed to be a starting NFL corner.

#48 Carolina (v/LAR) — Tyleik Williams (DT, Ohio State)
Williams is a terrific run defender and has played well for two seasons.

#49 Arizona — Xavier Scott (CB, Illinois)
He’s such a sparky playmaker. I really enjoyed watching him.

#50 Tampa Bay — Donovan Ezeiruaku (EDGE, Boston College)
Ezeiruaku has been consistently good this season rushing the edge.

#51 Atlanta — Jordan Burch (DE, Oregon)
He’s very athletic for his size and he’s had a productive year for the Ducks. It feels like there’s more to come from Burch.

#52 Seattle — Dylan Fairchild (G, Georgia)
He’s a former two-time Georgia state heavyweight wrestling champion. The Seahawks will like that.

#53 Houston — Jake Majors (C, Texas)
The Texans continue to rebuild their offensive line with the brilliant Majors.

#54 Denver — Mason Taylor (TE, LSU)
This would be a bargain for the Broncos. Taylor is incredibly talented with great bloodlines.

#55 Baltimore — Billy Bowman (S, Oklahoma)
Bowman plays like a Raven.

#56 Washington — Carson Schwesinger (LB, UCLA)
He’s had a brilliant season. Bobby Wagner won’t be able to play forever.

#57 LA Chargers — Ty Robinson (DT, Nebraska)
If there’s a Jim Harbaugh type of defensive lineman in this draft, it’s this guy.

#58 Green Bay — Jack Nelson (T/G, Wisconsin)
The Packers always seem to take offensive linemen I like.

#59 Pittsburgh — Devin Neal (RB, Kansas)
If Najee Harris moves on, Neal would be a great replacement.

#60 Buffalo — Xavier Watts (S, Notre Dame)
A productive, consistent safety with a great attitude.

#61 Buffalo (v/MIN) — Danny Stutsman (LB, Oklahoma)
As with Watts, a very consistent, hard-nosed linebacker who fits the Bills.

#62 Philadelphia — Derrick Harmon (DE, Oregon)
I’m not seeing why people have him in round one but he’s a viable day-two option in this draft.

#63 Kansas City — DJ Giddens (RB, Kansas State)
He reminds me of a less explosive Alvin Kamara.

#64 Detroit — Chris Paul Jr (LB, Ole Miss)
He has the demeanour and playing style of a Lions’ defender.

Further thoughts on the Seahawks picks

I’ve long thought Tyler Booker would be an ideal, almost obvious pick for the Seahawks in round one. They need someone who they can plug in at left guard and reliably start at a decent level quickly. Booker’s personality, attitude and playing style all chime perfectly with what the Seahawks have been targeting in recent drafts. He’s a reliable leader committed to football.

However, there is a scenario where they keep winning and Booker is taken before they select. Plug-in-and-play linemen are in high demand. If he’s off the board, there will be appealing alternatives. I have four offensive linemen coming off the board between Seattle’s pick at #23 and the end of the first round. However, by this point they have to weigh up the difference in talent between the likes of Donovan Jackson (another player with a lot of experience at left guard) and Dylan Fairchild in round two. I don’t think there’s a big gap.

Am I convinced Drew Allar is going to go in round one? Not at all. The college football playoffs will impact his stock more than most players. Am I totally sold on the Seahawks wanting to draft him? Again, no.

I’m pitching a theory that, at least in my opinion, makes some sense. I’ve discussed this in other articles but I’ll do a quick recap here:

— I firmly believe John Schneider has been itching to draft a quarterback since trading Russell Wilson and simply hasn’t been in a position to select one he likes. He has been justified in passing so far, given the Seahawks have not whiffed on any success stories at quarterback since 2022 apart from the improbable rise of Brock Purdy, working with Kyle Shanahan.

— The Seahawks have had a good bridge quarterback in Geno Smith for three seasons but are running out of time to draft the player to actually bridge to. Smith has one year left on his contract and turns 35 next year. A small extension which increases Smith’s earnings, while giving the Seahawks an annual ‘out’ and lowering his 2025 cap-hit, makes sense.

— I think Schneider will feel he needs to act sooner rather than later and will likely add someone he believes can be developed with the difference making traits he covets. Allar’s height (6-5) and weight (238lbs) are virtually identical to Josh Allen’s measurements at his combine. Allen was far from the finished product at Wyoming and that’s the case for Allar too. I’ve gone into detail about wanting to see him take more chances downfield, elevate Penn State to a big win, clean up his technique and find a way to look less awkward on the move. However, it also needs to be recognised that he’s made major progress this year having looked mostly undraftable a year ago. He’s shown flashes of creative brilliance, including against Oregon last week. He does have a NFL arm, outstanding size and some enticing traits. He is typically the kind of quarterback we’ve seen drafted between #15-#55 in the past.

— This is not a draft class loaded with legit first round players. The chances are the Seahawks, if they make the playoffs, will be drafting a player in round one who carries a day-two grade. Thus, they might not see drafting Allar in round one as problematic within this specific class. They may also feel that it’s a ‘now or never’ scenario, with the possibility Allar doesn’t make it to their pick in round two.

— The situation could be compared to the Packers drafting Jordan Love with the #26 pick in 2020. Love wasn’t ready to start and was drafted as the heir apparent to Aaron Rodgers. He was given quite some time before starting and that has paid off for Green Bay.

— Like virtually everyone else, I think the Seahawks have to make a big effort to improve the offensive line. I don’t think that has to mean with a first round pick, though. There are good options on day two. The talent difference between Booker at #19 and Jake Majors at #60 is not massive. Therefore, I think the Seahawks can take a chance on Allar if they believe in him. I’d also like to see resources spent on proven veteran linemen prior to the draft, for example center Ryan Kelly or if they want to go younger, I still believe Green Bay center Josh Myers would be worth bringing in for his toughness and leadership. I’d kick the tires on Brandon Scherff, James Daniels, Austin Corbett, Kevin Zeitler, Ben Cleveland and Will Hernandez (health permitting). Isaac Seumalo is a potential cap-casualty I’d be interested in, likewise Trey Pipkins. I don’t think the Seahawks can rely on drafting their way to an improved line in the first two rounds — a veteran presence is also required.

— Dylan Fairchild is more than capable of competing to start for the Seahawks at left guard. He’s a tremendous athlete with a wrestling background — something Seattle has valued in the past. He’s well sized, a good athlete and is expected to produce strong testing results.

The point of these mocks is to talk through scenarios, possibilities and discuss what John Schneider might do. Presenting you with the same mock everyone else is delivering would be fairly pointless. I’m not trying to predict the future with these — I’m trying to bring options to the table that seem somewhat viable.

I don’t think this mock is totally unrealistic for the Seahawks.

I’ve tried to match-up team needs and value across the two rounds as much as possible. Apologies to fans of other teams if you think I’ve made a mistake.

If you want to see how I’m grading the draft currently, based on the players I’ve had a chance to study, check out my latest horizontal board by clicking here.

Curtis Allen’s third quarter report card for the Seahawks

This is a guest article written by Curtis Allen

Record: 4-0

Thoughts

What a turnaround.  A 1-4 second quarter that ended with a thud in an overtime loss against the Rams that they should have won, followed by a bye week of reflection.

I don’t think any of us could have predicted what followed.  Beating their nemesis in San Francisco and sandwiching a sweep of a hot Cardinals team around a comeback against the Jets in one of the most bizarre games of the NFL season.

The Seahawks are not the finished article.  Far from it.  Yet fan optimism and faith has been rewarded heavily with a major turnaround on defense and a suddenly competent offense.

MVP

1. Leonard Williams

How could it not be the Big Cat for his performance this quarter?

Two solid games sandwiched around two incredible, Defensive Player of the Year-type games.

He harassed the quarterback (4.5 sacks, six pressures, three passes defensed).

He tackled ball carriers (eight tackles for loss and 21 tackles in this quarter alone!).

He blocked a PAT attempt.

And he might have completely turned the Seahawks’ season around with this pick-six:

Men that big and that strong are not supposed to also be blessed with the hands to snare passes and the feet to run like a sprinter.

The Seahawks have spent a lot of capital to acquire him (draft picks, cap space) and put complementary pieces around him (Dre’Mont Jones, Byron Murphy, Roy Robertson-Harris).  He is rewarding all of that investment handsomely.

2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba

JSN had a four-game stretch that rivals any great Wide Receiver in Seahawks history:

— 25 catches on 27 targets for 343 yards

— 17 first downs for a 68% rate per catch / 63% rate per target (both league top-five)

— Two touchdowns

— Zero drops

None of those first down catches were cheap.

Putting your slot corner on him does not work.

The Seahawks have a star on their hands. Ryan Grubb has a weapon he can deploy all over the field.

3. Ernest Jones

The Seahawks have found the linchpin of their defense.

The run defense has stabilized since Jones arrived.  Tyrice Knight has started to shine.

Jones had a terrific interception against the Cardinals.

His best feature might be this. Before Ernest Jones?  Free Safety Julian Love was averaging 7.85 tackles per game.  Strong Safety Coby Bryant in his first real starting role against the Falcons had 11 tackles.

After Ernest Jones?  Love is at 5.67 per game.  Bryant has never had more than six tackles in a game.

Jones is complementing the defensive line in keeping the back of the defense clean and enabling the safeties to roam a bit and cover for their teammates.

The scary part?  The Seahawks have yet to try using Jones as a blitzer.  Which we know he can do.

Rookie Of the Quarter

1. Tyrice Knight

— 35 tackles and two tackles for loss

— Two pressures, a sack and a QB knockdown on six blitzes

— A fumble recovery

Where the ball is, Tyrice Knight is not far behind.  He engages with his assignment but always keeps his eyes up for the ball carrier.

Four of his six career starts were this quarter.  He is still learning but he is doing it on the field while playing at a better level than the two veteran linebackers the Seahawks parted abruptly parted ways with this season.

2. Sataoa Laumea

It might be a bit too early to say the Seahawks have found their Right Guard of the future.

But just the fact fans are thinking that after the dreadful play of Anthony Bradford and the non-existent play of Christian Haynes is a huge benefit.

Laumea has had key blocks in two of Zach Charbonnet’s touchdown runs this quarter.

He has made mistakes to be sure but his play and potential is more than offsetting them.

3. A.J. Barner

Eight catches on eleven targets, three first downs, one touchdown, a key block on a Charbonnet touchdown run and one fool trucked.

Honorable Mention:  Byron Murphy is not flashing all through the game but is excelling at the dirty work that every team needs players to do to be a productive defense.  A ‘quieter’ rookie season followed by a full off-season of work and training is perfectly acceptable.

Successes

This quarter’s successes distinctly match the goals we talked about in our second quarter report card.

1. Put Together Back-to-Back Solid Efforts

Check.

The San Francisco game and the Arizona game featured closed-circle football.

The defense in the Niners game kept Christian McCaffrey from running wild.  They even bailed out Geno Smith for an interception in their own zone, holding the Niners to a field goal.  They then stuffed McCaffrey twice and forced two incompletions to give the ball back to the offense with enough time to mount a game-winning drive by Smith that was masterful.

The Arizona game was a brilliant defensive display.  The run-heavy Cardinals were kept in check and the pass rush savvy of Devon Witherspoon forced Kyler Murray into a Pick-six by Coby Bryant.

2. Figure Out a Way to Improve the Offensive Line

Check.

Abe Lucas has stabilized the Right Tackle position.  He had a terrific first game back against San Francisco, and has since been slightly uneven at times.  But he has not had a physical relapse, and has brought the tough spirit wes all know he has back to the offense and jailbreaks from that side of the field are far less regular.

Sataoa Lumea has been excellent at Right Guard.  As we said above, the position is not solved.  But he has excelled at what the Seahawks have asked him to do and in two games has produced highlight-worthy blocks that his teammates at the position have not.

Make no mistake, the line still needs significant work this offseason.  But for this quarter, the Seahawks have made as much progress as they possibly can.

3. Win A Division Game

Check, check and check.

The Seahawks got the Niners monkey off their backs and swept the Cardinals.  They exit the quarter at the top of the division.   

Challenges

1. The Special Teams Nightmare in New York

So, that happened.

The most head-scratching part of this particular challenge?  Most of it was preventable.  Dee Williams had shown that he has trouble as a returner, both in gauging the defenders coming at him and holding on to the ball.

The Jets’ kick return touchdown was by a practice squad player and the Seahawk defenders had chances to tackle him.

The Seahawks had an extra point attempt blocked.

Thank goodness for Leonard Williams and his Pick-six.  This disastrous performance can now be relegated to the ‘character-building chapter’ in the book of the Seahawks’ 2024 season.

2. Execution Issues on Offense

Short yardage challenges reared their ugly head once again.  Geno Smith making questionable decisions and being *just slightly* inaccurate under pressure came up again.

In the first Arizona game, the offense only managed ten points.  This after the defense forced six punts and delivered a pick-six.

The Seahawks won the Jets game on a 71-yard drive in which the Jets committed 46 yards of penalties, with two of them coming on fourth down.  They tried shooting themselves in the foot, but the Jets would not let them lose this game.

I know four straight wins after the previous quarter is fantastic and nothing to complain about.  But the defense’s dominance should have led the way to blowouts instead of somewhat comfortable wins.  The offense still has progress to make.

That’s it.  There is no third challenge.

Fourth Quarter Games

Green Bay (SNF)

Minnesota

@ Chicago

@ LA Rams

Goals for Fourth Quarter

1. Stay On Their Current Trajectory

The Seahawks have rounded into form.  The win in Arizona demonstrated what they can do with a complete effort from all three phases that are mostly error-free.

The competition is going to ramp up with games against three playoff hopefuls in the Packers, Vikings and Rams and a Bears team with nothing to lose.

Four wins seals the division crown and that would be a fantastic accomplishment.

This stretch should be about continuing their growth as a team though.  That is a far more important long-term goal.  They have made great strides on defense and the running game has suddenly come to life and been complemented by a very sharp quick-passing offense.  Special Teams did not have any major blunders on Sunday.

It is easy to say all problems have been fixed from here on out.  Harder to actually execute that.  Particularly in the crucible of the home stretch, where the weather will likely be cold and rainy in three of the four game locations, and the running game and execution on Special Teams will be ever more critical.

A backslide is very possible.

We have found out a lot about this team.  This quarter’s discovery is this — they can beat up a banged up Niner team.  They can beat a good but undermanned Arizona team.  Twice.

Can they expand their vision to beat the Packers, with top runner Josh Jacobs?  Or the Vikings with their fantastic pass rush and a suddenly hot Sam Darnold?  They got the Niner monkey off their backs, can they get the Rams one off too?

We will see.

One very specific thing that will go a long way towards success…

2. Win the Turnover Battle

This has been a challenge all season.  The Seahawks went +2 this quarter which has them at -4 on the season.

All four of their opponents this quarter are in plus territory for the season AND for their last four games.  In this one area, they have been far better than the Seahawks.

Geno Smith has not thrown an interception in the last two games, the only two-game stretch he has gone without one.  That streak needs to continue.

The defense needs to continue creating turnovers.  An aggressive, attacking pass rush and strong-punching tacklers like Ernest Jones, Tyrice Knight and Devon Witherspoon matched with ballhawks Coby Bryant and Riq Woolen can turn just about any game in the Seahawks’ favor.

And the bonus factor here:  The defense and the offense must support each other post-turnover.  The defense needs to hold fast and turn almost-sure touchdowns into field goals.  The offense must punish the opposing offense for their lack of ball control by turning prime opportunities into touchdowns and not settling for field goals.

3. Tap Into the Team’s Depth of Underused Players

Can they find a mix of reps for Zach Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker that can be productive for both players?  This year’s inability (or unwillingness) to run has not given us a proper platform for this discussion.  Charbonnet sure looked like a lead horse against the Cardinals.  Does the team need to settle on a “Zach gets x reps and Walker gets y reps” plan or can they manage their depth to exploit both players’ talents?  Walker is a very underrated route runner.  How about a series with both on the field, which has Charbonnet as the lead back and Walker motioning out to reveal the defense?

Noah Fant is not far behind his career-worst pace of 2023 and has not scored a touchdown in almost two years.  He has only been targeted more than four times in two games this season.  Fant is a definite talent whom the Seahawks should be able to find some plays for.

We talked above about Ernest Jones not yet being used as a blitzer.

They badly need Uchenna Nwosu to make an impact in this quarter.  Boye Mafe and Derick Hall have contributed lately, but not at the statistical level they were earlier this season.  A run-stopper with real pass rush talent at OLB may be just the chess piece this defense needs to ascend even further.

D.K. Metcalf has only three touchdown catches this season.  Can a recently stable offensive line give Geno Smith enough time to find him downfield?  A couple well-timed deep touchdown throws can turn any game on its ear and shift playoff seedings and fortunes the Seahawks’ way.

Jake Bobo.  Cody White.  Chris McIntosh.

The offense has depth and talent.  Pulling out some of the plays they have worked on for these players at key moments may prove fruitful.

The big offensive topics: Would the Seahawks draft Drew Allar, why coaching changes might be inevitable, Sam Darnold vs Geno Smith & more

Would the Seahawks draft Drew Allar?

Last week I said that Allar was my main focus during the college football Championship weekend. Like most people, I came away impressed.

Penn State has this knack of playing within itself. Despite having a big-armed quarterback, two dynamic running backs, the most prolific weapon at tight end in the NCAA and former highly recruited receivers, they constantly leave you wanting more.

That’s also been the case with Allar’s performances. He’s been far less erratic in 2024 and has improved. Based on 2023 tape he was undraftable. This year, he’s been better without justifying some of the lofty ‘early round draft pick’ talk.

Against Oregon I thought he took things up a notch. The Ducks were ready to run away with the game and Penn State’s offense kept them in it. Allar wasn’t flawless but he did two noteworthy things. Firstly, there was a noticeable zip to his passes, showing off a pro-level arm combined with an attack-minded approach. Secondly, he created out of structure to deliver big plays.

You’ve all seen this by now but it’s pretty impressive:

His first touchdown pass is also worth seeing. Granted, he’s well protected and who knows what the safety’s doing in coverage. He does make this 30-yard throw look fairly routine though:

He also had a couple of layered throws over the middle into tight windows. There aren’t any limitations in his throwing range. Allar gives you an opportunity to attack every blade of grass.

He still threw badly behind on his first interception. He still hasn’t had a big win or even a performance that elevates his team beyond expectations. Had he been able to drag Penn State to overtime, it would’ve been that moment. Instead when driving for a potential game-tying score, he simply threw another interception.

There are technical flaws that need fixing, especially when it comes to better footwork and base so he doesn’t have to throw ‘all arm’ as much.

Still, the point here is to weigh-up his potential and whether this big-armed, well-sized, athletic quarterback will interest a GM who seems to have a particular interest in big-armed, well-sized, athletic quarterbacks.

I do think John Schneider will have interest in Allar. Just as I thought earlier this year he probably would’ve taken Drake Maye if given his choice of the first round non-Caleb Williams quarterbacks. This is the type of player he tends to like. I’m not sure yet what round I think he’d be willing to take him — but I do think there could be some interest and it could be early.

It’s probably best to be open minded about it. Like everyone else, I think a big focus on the offensive line is needed. Eventually though, the Seahawks need to identify and draft a quarterback. They’ve had an ideal bridge setup for the last three seasons without the quarterback to bridge to.

While previous Schneider favourites like Russell Wilson and Patrick Mahomes had highly productive, long college careers — he also fell for the intriguing physical potential of Josh Allen. If you remember, Allen’s time at Wyoming was a bit all over the place. He threw 21 interceptions in his final two seasons. Like Allar, he was only a two-year starter. I remember being massively sceptical about him as a prospect based on tape because he made way too many bad mistakes.

Then he went to the Senior Bowl and looked and played like a factory made ideal quarterback. I was sold on his potential after that. Everything was perfect — size, arm talent, hand size, athleticism. He excelled in the game in Mobile. Then he had a spectacular pro-day, the best you’ll see. He was pretty much the perfect physical specimen and a monstrous talent.

Allar will do well to get close to this unrealistically high bar physically. He’s athletic but looks far more awkward on the move than Allen ever did. However, he’s listed at 6-5 and 238lbs. Allen, at his combine, was 6-5 and 237lbs.

It’s easy to forget but Allen was a meme for two years in the NFL. Some players, especially with exceptional physical tools, just need time.

What about other draft eligible quarterbacks?

I think Allar and Garrett Nussmeier are the two Schneider might have most interest in. Nussmeier gets a bad rap online. Unlike many, I’ve watched all of his games this season. I implore people to ignore the noise. His technical level is way beyond most college quarterbacks and this is after just one year as a starter. His gunslinger style, ability to deliver pro-level throws consistently and his plus moments in 2024 far outweigh the mistakes he’s made, many of which are correctable with experience.

If either or both declare, keep them in mind. I’ve long thought Schneider is itching to draft a quarterback, rather than avoid doing so. The right player simply hasn’t been there since they traded Russell Wilson. These two fit the bill, I suspect, for what he’s looking for.

We’ve spent a lot of time talking about Quinn Ewers too. I’d guess Schneider has been intrigued with Ewers’ natural talent for some time which is why he travelled to watch him live a few weeks ago.

While Ewers was getting hammered and blamed online for losing to Georgia on Saturday, it’s worth remembering their kicker missed two field goals, the O-line kept giving away penalties, the defense couldn’t stop Georgia’s offense with a bad backup quarterback and the receivers kept dropping passes. However, I think all of the concerns we’ve raised about Ewers in the past were evident in this game. It was the perfect example of who he is as a prospect.

There were some deep and layered passes that were absolutely superb in the first half. These are the passes to remind you why he was rated so highly during recruiting. Then there are the ugly moments. The interceptions that just look so basic and frustrating and avoidable. The lack of great mobility and elusiveness, in part because he’s so banged up all the time and has continuous injury problems. He’s not a big quarterback and seems ill-prepared to handle the hits. When games turn, he doesn’t seem able to elevate and lift his team.

Ewers combines a whip-like rapid release reminiscent of Aaron Rodgers — a big positive — with a level of indecisiveness in the pocket that eradicates that aspect of his game.

He came into the season viewed as an inconsistent yet naturally gifted player who needed to show greater consistency and an ability to stay healthy. He hasn’t achieved either. He’s not enhanced his stock in 2024. More of the same, if anything, has weakened his standing.

Someone will still take him on day two with the view of taking a chance on his natural talent. It could be Schneider. I think the moment has passed, though, where this would be a consideration with a high pick.

I think in the case of Allar and Nussemeier, Schneider might be more inclined to take a gamble early with the idea of bridging to the future.

Key offensive points for 2025

It’ll be an interesting off-season when it comes to the quarterback position and the offense for four reasons:

1. Is Ryan Grubb back for another season?
2. How do they fix the offensive line?
3. What do they do with Geno Smith?
4. Will they draft a quarterback?

On Ryan Grubb’s job

I think the online discourse on the future of Seattle’s offensive coordinator is wrong. It’s become a debate around ‘giving him time’ versus ‘he’s not good enough’. A question of ‘does he have the tools to succeed’ versus whether he should still be producing better results.

I think it’s much more about philosophy and fit.

Mike Macdonald didn’t bring a staff with him to Seattle. He didn’t have a bunch of coaching buddies to call upon, with years of history together. A whole new staff of strangers was assembled instead.

It’s inevitable within this environment that some people will fit and others won’t, for a variety of reasons. Changes will happen in the off-season whatever happens between now and their final game. That’s just what happens when you put people together with no prior working relationship. The Head Coach will have a better idea of what he wants for the long-term. The truth is a year ago he probably didn’t have as clear a picture as he does now.

Like a few others, I’ve wondered for weeks whether Grubb and Macdonald are a long-term match. It doesn’t mean Grubb is bad at his job. Just last week he discussed candidly the challenge of working with a different Head Coach after years of building a relationship with Kalen DeBoer. The fact that it was described as an experience rather than a roaring success felt interesting.

There have been a few examples where Macdonald’s answers at press conferences about the offensive struggles, choices and planning have been quite pointed. The Head Coach and offensive coordinator, when asked similar philosophical questions, have sometimes given very different answers. This was particularly interesting when they were both asked about whether you need to commit to the run in order to establish it. Macdonald offered an unwavering ‘yes’, Grubb’s answer was broader and nowhere near as emphatic.

While the offensive line has been a clear problem, I wonder whether Macdonald’s preferred solution might differ from Grubb’s. I think there’s definitely sufficient evidence within Macdonald’s various interviews to doubt whether a shotgun-heavy and ‘throw the ball a lot more’ approach is what he wants. I’m also not sure he’ll be content with the way they’ve handled short-yardage situations and the red zone — areas where you should still find a base-level of success even with a poor offensive line.

The Arizona game was a step in the right direction and hopefully the start of major offensive progress. If they finish the year brilliantly, I reserve the right to adjust my view on this. However, for me this isn’t about judging Grubb’s position based on week-to-week performances. It’s all about fit. There’s just been enough there in the way Macdonald has bristled slightly about the offense that makes me think this might not be an arrangement that will continue beyond this season. I accept I could be completely wrong. We’ll find out in a few weeks.

If they do move on, the next OC might already be on the staff. More on that later.

What happens with the offensive line?

Investment is clearly required. Additions at all three interior spots are necessary. If you can add proven quality, it should be prioritised. Creating cap space to bid for available quality veterans is important, although admittedly there won’t be an extensive list of options there. I’ll keep banging this drum — adding toughness and experience in the form of someone like Colts center Ryan Kelly, if he reaches free agency, might be wise.

Talent should be added in the draft. There are really good interior O-line options to bolster their biggest need area. Tyler Booker, Donovan Jackson, Logan Jones, Jake Majors, Parker Brailsford, Jared Wilson, Dylan Fairchild and others can really help the team. There are a cluster of potential tackle-to-guard converts, highlighted by Josh Conerly, Grey Zabel and Kelvin Banks.

There are also some interesting blocking tight ends eligible for the draft, such as Iowa’s Luke Lachey. Adding quality here can also help improve Seattle’s play in the trenches.

There has to be a concerted effort to fix this issue and I think there will be. For all the justifiable worry fans have about this position group, I suspect the Seahawks know they’ve reached a point where they have to do something about their offensive line. The talent is there in the draft to put things right.

What happens with Geno Smith?

I think it’s highly unlikely he plays out the final year of his contract with a cap-hit that will almost certainly be at least $40.5m next season due to his escalators.

I agree with Brady Henderson’s view, as noted in this ESPN article last week:

13 touchdown passes to 12 interceptions doesn’t seem worthy of a long-term commitment in (the) $50 million a year range, which would put him in the top 10 among quarterbacks. What seems more likely is a short-term deal that boosts his current $25 million average per season, leaving Seattle with the flexibility to go year to year with him.

Despite the clamour from certain sections of the media and fanbase, this is likely to be Seattle’s position on the matter. They’ll want the flexibility to go year-to-year given Smith’s age.

Who knows how he and his representatives will feel about that? Unlike in 2023, he won’t be able to establish his market as a free agent. Smith will argue he deserves a raise and an extension based on the wider quarterback market, while the Seahawks will be wary of bidding against themselves at a time when the NFL is largely not getting value for money out of quarterback contracts.

Is there a compromise? That’d be best for both parties. Something that allows the Seahawks to lower Smith’s 2025 cap hit, retain some consistency and a good bridge to what’s next, while having the flexibility to draft an heir apparent and prepare for a longer-term future. Meanwhile, Smith gets a financial boost plus an opportunity to bolster his earnings, probably in the form of contractual escalators again.

I don’t think it’d make much sense for Smith to force the issue and hold out. It’s hard to see how that would benefit anyone. He didn’t have a big market in 2023 and I’m not sure much has changed. Compromise feels like his best bet and it might be Seattle’s too.

It also might be best to co-operate before the Seahawks assess alternative options. As I wrote about recently, I don’t think it’s unrealistic that they might look into Sam Darnold’s market. His five-touchdown performance against the Falcons, played within the environment of a poor Minnesota offensive line performance, bolstered his stock further.

To recap what I wrote two weeks ago, Schneider attended Darnold’s pro-day in 2018. He didn’t just go to Josh Allen’s. As far as I’m aware, he didn’t attend Baker Mayfield’s or Josh Rosen’s. We’ve heard a lot about Schneider’s interest in Allen as the Bills quarterback has turned into a superstar. We might not have heard as much about potential interest in Darnold because up until this year, he’d not succeeded.

Before he was traded by the Jets to the Panthers in 2021, there was plenty of talk about interest from the Seahawks in Darnold. This coincided with Russell Wilson’s four-team trade list being made public. It’s plausible that had Wilson been moved a year earlier, the Seahawks would’ve pursued Darnold. After all, Brad Biggs from the Chicago Tribune quoted a NFL GM saying the Seahawks were a team to watch with Darnold. Colin Cowherd made the connection, as did a report by Pat Leonard in the New York Daily News, citing a league source.

Smith’s cap-hit of approximately $40-42m next year can be compared to a cap-hit as low as $7-9m for Darnold if he signs a deal similar to Mayfield’s in Tampa Bay. If you account for $13.5m of dead money on Smith’s Seattle deal, that’s potentially a 50% saving on a cap hit in 2025 on a quarterback. Darnold is also seven years younger than Smith and it won’t be difficult to structure an ‘out’ in his contract for year three (Tampa Bay is protected in that way with Mayfield).

I’m not going to go over old ground again regarding Schneider’s thoughts on Smith but there’s enough out there to question whether the GM is fully committed to the current starter.

I don’t think there’s a massive difference between Darnold and Smith and that’s why the age difference and 2025 cap saving could interest Seattle. They have both had relative success after difficult years playing for bad teams like the Jets.

They have similar stats in certain categories:

Completion %
Darnold 68.4%
Smith 69.5%

PFF grade
Darnold 86.4
Smith 83.3

Big time throws
Darnold 29 (leads NFL)
Smith 25

Times sacked
Darnold 40
Smith 40

On deep throws — something I think will be important to Schneider — Darnold (51) and Smith (52) have thrown virtually the same number of +20 yard passes. Darnold’s completion percentage on these passes is 52.9% compared to Smith’s 46.2%. He’s averaged 19 yards per attempt compared to Smith’s 14.2. They’ve both thrown seven touchdowns and 19 ‘big time throws’ on downfield passes. If you think Darnold has an O-line advantage, on average he’s had 3.20 seconds to throw on deep passes, with Smith averaging 3.18 seconds.

There are some noticeable differences too. For example, Darnold has the third best quarterback rating (108.1) while Smith is way down in 18th (90.4). Darnold has thrown twice as many touchdowns (28) than Smith (14) despite throwing 80 fewer passes. Darnold’s yards per attempt (8.5) is fourth best in the league, while Smith’s (7.5) is only 17th. Darnold has also been far more effective in the red zone. He’s thrown 21 touchdowns and has a 72.2% completion percentage on 72 attempts. Smith has just eight red zone touchdowns, completing 48% of his passes on 50 attempts.

Some people won’t like this but Darnold is pretty much a younger Smith with better stats in a handful of important categories. In fairness, Smith has faced 31 more pressures than Darnold — but that was a Stone Forsythe problem that has since been remedied (Forsythe gave up 27 pressures against the Lions, Giants and 49ers alone).

It may be even more appealing for the Seahawks to make the switch if they part with Grubb and promote Jake Peetz to be the offensive coordinator. He is from the same Sean McVay tree that Kevin O’Connell comes from. There’d be some crossover for Darnold. Peetz effectively replaced O’Connell in LA, having worked with McVay in Washington previously. He was seen as a highly rated up-and-comer in LA and it was somewhat surprising the Seahawks were able to bring him to Seattle.

If Peetz took over the coordinator job, it would also prevent massive changes to the offensive terminology internally.

There are potential downsides to signing Darnold, of course. You get a cheap 2025 cap-hit but a substantial 2026 outlay. If he turns out to be a one-hit wonder with O’Connell, you’re stuck with him. He will quickly turn into a major financial burden. Other teams might be more inclined to take that risk when they look at their weaker existing starters.

Another downside could be the locker room reaction. It seems like Smith is popular with team mates. Shifting him out and inserting Darnold could be disruptive, especially if he struggles. That said, Tarvaris Jackson was very popular in Seattle in 2011 and the Seahawks didn’t shirk paying Matt Flynn to replace him, before drafting Russell Wilson.

Will they draft a quarterback?

Whenever they do finally take one, especially if it’s a high-ish pick, they will need a bridge. You never want to go into a draft tipping your hand unless you have the #1 pick. The Seahawks, if they intend to draft Allar, Nussmeier, Ewers or another quarterback, would require a proven starter to act as the bridge while masking their intentions.

If they can work things out quickly with Smith on a compromised extension that allows them to lower his 2025 cap-hit, they can comfortably present the deal as a bigger commitment than it is and feel good about their flexibility in the draft. Signing Darnold has the same effect.

The ideal scenario for the Seahawks is to have a veteran starter and a young, cheap, drafted quarterback being developed initially, then competing for the starting gig. I don’t blame Schneider at all for not creating this situation sooner. As mentioned earlier, the Seahawks haven’t passed on anyone in the last three drafts who has so far amounted to anything. You can’t force this. Schneider is right not to take a quarterback just for the sake of it. He has still added a young player in Sam Howell, so he’s not oblivious to the need.

For all the talk about the 2025 draft class not being great, an opinion I’ve voiced myself, it might work out quite well for the Seahawks. They might be able to identify a quarterback to invest in while still bolstering their offensive line.

Whatever happens between now and the end of the season, this promises to be an eventful and intriguing few months for the offense.

Bonus defensive off-season comment

I’ve no idea whether the Seahawks will have the cap space to make this happen, or whether the player would be interested in playing for another NFC West team. However, Budda Baker is a warrior. The thought of adding him to Seattle’s defense in a hybrid role currently occupied by Rayshawn Jenkins, is tantalising. It’s something I’ve thought a lot about since the weekend.

I’d even be quite aggressive to make this happen. Baker’s talent, physical style, playmaking qualities and leadership would be priceless. Look at how he played on Sunday, despite getting banged up during the game.

I’d love to think he’d be open minded about coming home, rather than opposed to the idea because he’s become such an integral part of the Cardinals for so long. I also think there’d be a ton of interest in him. Watching him in Seattle next year is an intriguing thought if it’s financially viable. It would further tip Macdonald’s unit closer to an elite level. It would also be a great schematic fit for the player.

Assuming he reaches the market, it’d be a rare opportunity to add a legitimate high-quality defender who is still at a reasonable age (he turns 29 in January) and continues to play at an exceptional level.

Instant reaction: Seahawks beat Cardinals again to take control of NFC West

Complementary football isn’t often celebrated by the online masses. In a world of stats, analytics, endless graphs that are difficult to read, fantasy football and other things, it’s often forgotten that doing the fundamentals right across the board will provide joy more often than not.

The Seahawks played well on defense, offense and special teams. It’s a great thing to say. It was thoroughly enjoyable to see just how solid everything was. It wasn’t flashy or exciting. It was connected. That’ll win you plenty of games.

This is a fifth consecutive game where the defense played at a high level. You’re not going to have a game as important as this where you dominate from start to finish. The Cardinals had their moments but ultimately, the Seahawks had far more. To contain an offense with Arizona’s weapons the way they did in two divisional games is extremely impressive.

The defensive backs played with physicality and tight coverage, the linebackers were excellent again and the D-line contributed. This is no longer a pleasant shift in direction. It looks like Mike Macdonald’s defense has landed.

The offensive gameplan was spot on and Ryan Grubb and his staff deserve credit after some tough weeks recently. They ran the ball better than they have in a long time, with Zach Charbonnet looking reborn as the lead back. They were more creative in the red zone. They converted short yardage situations. Geno Smith managed the game very well — checking down often and taking what was available, with some key passing conversions too.

On special teams there were no issues after a week of chaos in New York.

This looked like a football team worthy of playing in the post-season. They’re still a way off the finished article but that’s OK. Improvements will come in the off-season. But it’s great to feel like they’re on the right path at the moment. We haven’t always been able to say that in recent years.

Next week’s game against the Green Bay Packers in Prime Time will be a great test of the progress they’re making.

Curtis Allen’s week fourteen watch notes (vs Arizona)

This is a guest post by Curtis Allen

Life comes at you fast in the NFL.

Last Sunday, the Seahawks’ heads were spinning after a disastrous series of Special Teams bloopers in New York. Halfway through the third quarter, the Jets were driving towards an insurmountable 28-7 lead to pretty well seal a game Seattle will be kicking themselves over for months.

Meanwhile, the Arizona Cardinals lead a tough Vikings team 19-13 entering the fourth quarter, holding the ball at about midfield.

Then Leonard Williams made arguably one of the greatest plays in Seahawks history, a 92-yard pick-6 of Aaron Rodgers to flip the game to 21-13 and start the Seahawks on a comeback trail.

In Minnesota, Kyler Murray throws a sloppy, bad interception and the Vikings start their comeback that will culminate in a late win.

A couple of interceptions flipped the whole division and now we stand at a place where this is true of today’s game:

Yes, your Seattle Seahawks – proud owners of a miserable 1-5 stretch, one of the worst Offensive Lines in the NFL and a team that cannot gain one rushing yard to save their lives – could put a stranglehold on the division with a win today.

I wrote last week that every game is a discovery process. This week’s discovery is: Is this team for real? As in, can they keep their ferocious defensive play while making small but meaningful gains on offense?

Or is this season what it always was going to be, a nice transition to the new regime? A team that made encouraging progress in Mike Macdonald’s first year? Or a team not unlike Pete Carroll’s early teams? One that could win while learning on the job and gain valuable experience and confidence?

We will see. A second crack at the Cardinals in two weeks may provide some valuable insights about this franchise.

As for Arizona, they are heading in the other direction. After winning four in a row, they have dropped their last two games. What happened in the Minnesota game?

Arizona out-rushed the Vikings by almost 90 yards. They ran 26 more plays on offense than the Vikings and won the Time of Possession game by over 11 whole minutes. How did they lose?

They committed ten penalties and turned the ball over twice. The defense allowed a clock-draining eight-play, 70-yard Touchdown drive that included a Fourth and five conversion pass to Justin Jefferson.

Perhaps most damning, they kicked five field goals including four in the Red Zone. Some oddly conservative play-calling at just the wrong time doomed them. An easy two-touchdown win turned into a much closer game than it should have and Minnesota took advantage.

Therefore, both teams are not feeling great about their games last week and are eager to put them in the rearview mirror.

No need to reinvent the wheel. Have a look at Week 12’s post for the main points of focus on beating Arizona.

Keeping James Conner under wraps is critical. Not letting Trey McBride to run free and collect first downs in bunches is important too.

As is putting pressure on Kyler Murray. We talked about brining pressure from the middle and using the edges to contain him, and boy did the Seahawks do that well two weeks ago. Leonard Williams had a tour de force game and disrupted the game like few others.

Some Additional Thoughts

— It is time to fix this offense in short-yardage and Red Zone situations. Mike Macdonald had a very, very direct quote this week:

“We have to have, frankly, a better plan going into it”

That is probably about as damning as you will hear from a Head Coach about his Offensive Coordinator. The Seahawks must show improvement in this area. It could be that they are getting the ‘yips’ – so uncomfortable with recent struggles that they overthink the play calls.

We would all like them to emulate the Detroit Lions with their slick Red Zone plays. Or maybe they should resurrect the ‘Shane Waldron by way of Kyle Shanahan’ triple fake play.

How ever they go about it, they need to show progress on offense. Not just to avoid making games unnecessarily close, but to shake those yips and build some confidence in their processes.

— The Cardinals have gone from bottom-10 in sacks to two weeks later being in the top-10, collecting ten sacks in their last two games. Most impressively, they are not doing it with much blitzing. Jonathan Gannon is making the personnel he has work with creative formations. Still, they are giving up explosive pass plays. Geno Smith and Sam Darnold have had good deeper throws on them in the last two weeks.

With that recent success by the Cardinal pass rush and the Seahawk Offensive Line still in flux, it is a safe bet we will see both sacks and explosive pass plays. Minimizing those losses and accentuating those gains will be critical. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is on a roll. And it is time for Noah Fant and/or Tyler Lockett to have an impactful game.

— Ken Walker is out with a calf strain. I think we can all agree that Seahawks players with potentially troublesome leg and knee injuries should stay as far away from State Farm Stadium as possible.

However, this might prove to be an interesting opportunity for the Seahawks to feature a different side of their offense with Walker out. Zach Charbonnet is a hard-nosed, physical runner. Sataoa Lumea has a long way to go at Right Guard but has made some good blocks in the running game (watch him on a textbook block to open a path to the end zone).

Perhaps a less-nuanced, blunt force type approach might keep Arizona’s pass rush in check and allow for some openings in the passing game, as well as put more pressure on the Cardinal offense to abandon their own plodding ground game. A.J. Barner might be put to good use in this game again as both a blocker and a safety valve option.

Why Drew Allar will be my main focus this weekend

The play of Drew Allar more or less reflects Penn State’s season overall. It’s been fine. Just enough to get to where they wanted to go — the BIG-10 Championship game and the playoffs.

Don’t get me wrong, despite statistically seeing a regression this year — his tape is a lot better. He’s nowhere near as erratic and aimless in 2024, even if he’s thrown seven fewer touchdowns and three more interceptions.

I think he warrants a place in the middle rounds of the 2025 draft and would be best served playing another year in college football. However, according to Tony Pauline, that isn’t likely:

While I do not know Allar’s conversations with agents, everyone around the Penn State program I’ve spoken with expects the Junior to enter the draft.

And though he’s not another Christian Hackenburg, if Allar enters the draft as expected, he will be overdrafted, as Hackenburg was.

He reminds me of Mike Glennon, the former NC State quarterback taken in round three who bounced around the league — most famously receiving a big contract from the Chicago Bears shortly before they traded up to draft Mitchell Trubisky instead of Patrick Mahomes.

The biggest problem is his technique, in particular his footwork. His throwing base whenever he has to move is problematic. Too often the velocity comes solely from his arm — at the next level, throwing this way, especially under increasing pressure, will lead to inaccurate throws. Plus every time he has to move he looks so ungainly and awkward. On the whole though I was always just left wanting more. Give me more plays to get excited about. I didn’t see enough.

I’d argue he’s had an unremarkable college career. Penn State haven’t had any keynote wins. Allar is far from solely responsible for this but he’s not carrying momentum into the NFL in the way some of the highly drafted quarterbacks did a year ago.

That’s one of the reasons I’m focusing on the game against Oregon. This is his latest opportunity to leave a big impression.

I’m also watching because Seattle’s GM is John Schneider.

I’ve no idea whether Schneider would be interested in Allar. He isn’t just automatically going to like every big-armed, tall, well-sized quarterback. He has shown a tendency to like these kinds of players though. Allar might be a bit awkward on the move but he is, in fairness, not a total statue. The GM who traded for Charlie Whitehurst and acquired (and talked up) Drew Lock may well see something in Allar.

At some point Schneider is going to draft a quarterback. I don’t blame him for not taking one since Russell Wilson was traded because none of the players he’s passed on have amounted to much so far. The Seahawks have an appealing bridge arrangement with Geno Smith but actually need to get the player you’re bridging to. You can’t force it though.

How inclined is Schneider to wait for the ‘wow’ player? The type of prospect who gives him the same feeling he had with Josh Allen, Wilson and Mahomes? Has he been so restrained for so long that he’s now almost inclined to wait for a ‘slap you in the chops high quality’ prospect? Or is he willing to take a player like Allar a bit earlier than he perhaps warrants, on the basis of potential and with the objective of development?

I do wonder if he’s waiting for special, in part because so much of the post-Carroll era will be judged on Schneider’s ability to find a great young quarterback. Clearly he liked Sam Howell because he traded for him and said he liked him in the draft. Yet he decided not to select him in even in round four. A whiff at quarterback in the draft would create pressure and it might increase conservatism when making a decision to select a QB.

I don’t necessarily see this as a bad thing though. I see fans all the time saying ‘just take one’. That’s not how it works. You can’t pass up players rated significantly higher on your board for the sake of being seen to simply select a quarterback. There’s also a lot more you have to consider when picking a signal caller. You have to see leadership and certain personality characteristics within a player to believe they can lead your franchise. You don’t have to worry about that as much when you select Coby Bryant instead of Howell, as Seattle did in 2022.

That said, I would like to see Schneider take a chance if he thinks a player can be ‘the guy’. The benefit of such a player playing for 3-4 years on a cheap contract is significant if they want to build-up other parts of the team.

I do believe Schneider will do this when he sees that player — and it won’t necessarily be one that universally has Seahawks fans roaring their approval. I’m sure some would’ve railed against Allen based on his Wyoming tape. He reportedly advocated for taking Andy Dalton in 2011 but Pete Carroll didn’t agree — and without consensus, they went in a different direction.

We’ve talked in the past about Schneider possibly having interest in Quinn Ewers. Now we’re talking about Allar. Twitter will be a fun place if they select either within the first two rounds.

The 2025 quarterback class might not be a great one but there are others who could interest Seattle enough to make an investment. I think, for example, John would have some appreciation for Garrett Nussmeier.

Back to Allar — you can clearly see his ability to throw downfield and he has some excellent layered throws into tight windows this year. There are also a few crazy moments where he avoids pressure, extends the play and makes a big completion downfield. This is what Schneider seems to like.

Statistically there are some fascinating things to consider. For example, he’s only thrown 10 ‘big time throws’. This is a relative tiny amount compared to the other big name quarterbacks eligible for 2025:

Seth Henigan — 29
Jaxson Dart — 28
Cam Ward — 28
Shedeur Sanders — 26
Carson Beck — 21
Garrett Nussmeier — 20
Kurtis Rourke — 18
Jalen Milroe — 17
Will Howard — 16
Max Brosmer — 14
Quinn Ewers — 10 (missed games through injury)

However, on the plus side he isn’t making too many risky plays. He’s only thrown four ‘turnover worthy plays’ which is a huge contrast to the other quarterbacks:

Carson Beck — 18
Garrett Nussmeier — 16
Quinn Ewers — 15
Cam Ward — 14
Jaxson Dart — 13
Will Howard — 13
Seth Henigan — 13
Max Brosmer — 9
Jalen Milroe — 9
Kurtis Rourke — 8
Shedeur Sanders — 6

I’m not sure these stats are actually a great feather in Allar’s cap when it comes to the Seahawks. I think Schneider is looking for a Brett Favre type of player — a gunslinger. Someone who is willing to take a few risks to make magic happen. I think he might be more interested in a slightly higher number of turnover worthy plays if the same player is also making a considerable number of big time throws.

Let’s look at Allar’s deep passing. Does he take enough chances? Only 11.2% of his throws are 20+ yard attempts. This is how he compares to other players:

Jaxson Dart — 22.3%
Jalen Milroe — 17.9%
Seth Henigan — 17.3%
Carson Beck — 16.1%
Kurtis Rourke — 16%
Cam Ward — 15.9%
Garrett Nussmeier — 15.9%
Shedeur Sanders — 14.8%
Max Brosmer — 11.7%

How can it be that someone with Allar’s size and arm is throwing a smaller percentage of deep throws than any of the names above? He only attempted 32 deep passes during the regular season. Here are the comparisons again:

Jaxson Dart — 81
Garrett Nussmeier — 78
Seth Henigan — 78
Carson Beck — 70
Cam Ward — 69
Shedeur Sanders — 68
Jalen Milroe — 52
Kurtis Rourke — 46
Max Brosmer — 44

Either by design or by choice, he isn’t let it rip enough. If Schneider is really tied to the idea of a gunslinging quarterback, Allar needs to push the ball downfield against Oregon and in the playoffs.

Granted, a big part of this will be the fact that tight end Tyler Warren is his top weapon. He looks for him all the time and as a tight end — he isn’t going to be running downfield much. Yet you could equally argue Mason Taylor is LSU’s best target, or that Georgia rely on their tight ends. Both teams throw downfield more than Penn State.

How you handle pressure and protecting the football is important. Allar does have the tools to be a more prolific deep-ball thrower and he’s statistically strong under pressure. Shedeur Sanders for example has created a NCAA high 15 self-inflicted pressures this season. Allar has created only seven. It’s incredible how bad Sanders has been at self-inflicted pressure. He was also responsible for seven QB hits and an astonishing 21 hurries. Cam Ward instigated 14 avoidable hurries, the second most among big names. Allar only contributed six.

Only four of Allar’s big time throws came under pressure, although none of his turnover worthy plays were under pressure either. He had the seventh best passing grade under pressure (68.3) in a similar range to Sanders (65.6) and Jaxson Dart (65.4).

Here’s the ratio of BTT’s to TWP’s under pressure:

Kurtis Rourke — 6/3
Jaxson Dart — 6/6
Cam Ward — 7/9
Shedeur Sanders — 8/3
Max Brosmer — 3/3
Will Howard — 1/6
Quinn Ewers — 1/5
Jalen Milroe — 4/5
Garrett Nussmeier — 3/10
Seth Henigan — 5/7
Carson Beck — 4/10

These numbers show why Sanders will probably be the first quarterback taken. He does create a maddening amount of self-pressure but he somehow actually thrives in this environment. Throwing 26 BTT’s and only six TWP’s all year, with a positive ratio under pressure, is impressive. Most of the other players struggle under pressure, unsurprisingly. Allar is the only player not to throw a TWP under pressure all year — but he’s equally not making a ton of ‘wow’ moments.

Penn State’s pass blocking grade only ranks 82nd in the NCAA. Texas are first (I’m surprised by this and it raises suspicion about the quality of PFF’s grading again frankly), Memphis 6th, Georgia 11th, Miami 23rd, Indiana 29th, LSU 33rd, Colorado 35th, Minnesota 62nd, Alabama 68th, Ole Miss 91st and Ohio State 106th. So it’s to his credit that he’s not made more mistakes.

Has he shown special qualities though? He hasn’t had a moment like Ewers on the road in Alabama last season. He has the frame to start in the NFL but does he have the ‘stuff’ to be a top quality franchise QB? Why isn’t he making more big plays downfield, why isn’t he even attempting to do so?

There are some moments on tape where you think — I can see Schneider liking this guy. Here’s one against Maryland:

This is the kind of arm strength you need to throw into tight windows over the middle in the NFL:

If Allar can go toe-to-toe with Oregon, have a great performance and elevate his stock further in the playoffs — he might be a name to watch. I suspect teams will be eager to see what he can do.

Yet I get the sense it’ll be more of the same. Another so-so performance. He’ll make some good plays, sure. Not enough though. Oregon will win, not emphatically but they’ll get the job done. It’ll be another close loss for Penn State in a big game.

It’s up to Allar and his team-mates to change the narrative there. In terms of his draft stock, it’d be nice to see him take a few more risks and make things happen.

Scouting notes after the final regular season weekend of college football

Get Grey Zabel in a Seahawks uniform

North Dakota State’s Grey Zabel possibly won’t be my highest graded offensive lineman but he might be the one I want the most on the Seahawks.

I think his tape is fantastic. He ticks virtually every box. He plays with great physicality and he’s a classic tough guy offensive lineman. Zabel’s a true finisher and that’s the kind of lineman I want the Seahawks to target. You watch his blocks and he’s constantly working his feet, adjusting his hand position and driving forwards looking to clear opponents off the line.

His agility and movement is excellent — meaning he can mirror off the edge with ease and reach up to the second level comfortably. It won’t be a surprise if he runs a great short shuttle and 10-yard split. There’s plenty of twitch in his short-area change of direction and he plays with loose hips for a man listed at 6-6 and 305lbs.

When he connects he’s strong at the point of attack and even when defenders gain leverage and jolt him backwards, he has a strong enough back and base to plant the anchor. Zabel plays with heavy hands on contact and he transfers power through his legs to win leverage battles in a way not common for a man his size.

Durability is a key strength of his — he’s played in 58 college games. He’s strong in both the running and passing game. I wouldn’t put it past him to excel at tackle but I think he can be a tremendous guard.

There are technical improvements he needs to make to clean up some initial hand-placement issues, so he doesn’t have to adjust as much and turning forceful power into controlled power at the next level will be key. However, NDSU has a production line for NFL talent — Cody Mauch, Dillon Radunz, Billy Turner, Billy Turner. Zabel to me is the most exciting NDSU lineman I’ve watched on tape. I’d love to kick him inside to left guard and develop him.

He is PFF’s top graded offensive tackle with a 91.8 grade. He’s given up one sack in 2024, three hurries and only six pressures. He is on my board with a strong second round grade pre-Senior Bowl and combine. I want this guy in Seattle.

This upcoming draft class will present interior O-line options for the Seahawks. They might prefer to go with a bigger, SEC-battled-tested player like Tyler Booker — or one of a handful of others worthy of going in the top-50. Zabel belongs in the conversation and in a few years I’ve got a feeling we’ll look back and determine he provided fantastic value wherever he’s taken.

Justin Simmons & Will Campbell declare

Players are already starting to declare for the NFL Draft at the conclusion of the college football regular season. Justin Simmons, despite his recent knee surgery, is turning pro. Ohio State’s left tackle is the best blind-side blocker eligible and could still be a high first round pick as a consequence.

LSU’s Will Campbell has also turned pro, with many in draft media rushing to declare he’s the best offensive lineman available. I would dispute that with gusto. He is a short-armed tackle who has to kick inside to guard and doesn’t play with the kind of aggression and power you ideally want from an interior blocker. He doesn’t play with any edge and too often looks passive.

Here’s Campbell giving up an easy sack on Saturday, leading to quarterback Garrett Nussmeier having to temporarily leave the game with an injury:

So you can’t play him at left tackle due to his length and he doesn’t have the ideal characteristics of a guard. Why exactly is he the top offensive lineman again? Or a high pick at all for that matter? I’m starting to think people lean too much into Bruce Feldman’s freaks list for their projections. In the 2024 version, it was reported Campbell can run a 1.57 10-yard split. I’ll believe that when I see it.

I think he’s firmly a day two prospect for teams who don’t place a high value on physicality and power at the POA and might prefer a more athletic guard.

Quarterback notes

Thankfully Nussmeier was OK and returned to throw two long touchdown passes including a superb 55-yard effort. When the internet turns against someone, it spreads quickly. They are being a bit silly. He will go in the first round if he declares and I do think John Schneider will see some appeal with his playing mentality. I think a lot of teams will like his personality (turn the volume on below):

He has easily thrown the most NFL-level passes this year among the quarterback class. There are aspects to his game that need ironing out and he made some mistakes. Guess what — so did Cam Ward. The difference is, Nussmeier threw 11 interceptions in a loaded SEC schedule including South Carolina, Texas A&M and a much improved Florida on the road, plus Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma at home. This isn’t an ACC schedule.

Neither did he have LSU’s typical assortment of weapons or the protection we expected given the high profile O-line in front of him. Nussmeier is talented and while many are saying he should return to school — I’m not convinced another year under Brian Kelly’s regime will do him that much good. Not unless they blitz the portal for weapons and linemen.

In terms of the other quarterbacks, I thought Cam Ward probably had his most impressive game of the season at Syracuse even in a defeat. He looked far more poised with less unnecessary pocket movement. Granted, he was facing yet another appalling defense. Yet this was a strong display and it’s a shame Miami didn’t make the playoffs so we can see him face tougher opponents. He did nearly throw a really bad red zone pick at the end — he was lucky it was dropped after being tipped up in the air.

Quinn Ewers showed plenty of arm talent with a fantastic 50-yard throw against Texas A&M that had perfect touch, accuracy and velocity. However, he also once again showed major inconsistencies and turnovers. The Longhorns have this habit of playing well for one half and terribly in the other. He threw an awful pick-six, returned for 93-yards, Texas A&M’s only points. The ankle injury clearly hobbled him and disrupted his rhythm. Ewers is such a difficult projection. There are signs of natural talent most weeks but the injuries and mistakes have prevented him from taking a step forward this year. I don’t think his stock has improved in 2024.

Jalen Milroe produced another mix of ugly throws leading to mistakes and flashes of physical potential. He had two fumbles and a pick in the game. He also showed off a strong arm. As with the Will Campbell talk, I’ve spent weeks baffled by draft media’s chatter around Milroe.

Apparently he’s shown real development as a passer. Look at the numbers. Last year he attempted 284 passes and so far this year he’s on 287 — so it’s a fair sample comparison. He has 15 touchdowns and 10 picks this year. Compare that to his 23/6 ratio from 2023. His quarterback rating has dropped by nearly 20 points. His yardage is down by 200 yards and his completion percentage has improved by a whopping 0.1%.

If anything he’s just become a more effective runner. His average per rush has improved by 1.4 YPC, his yardage jumped from 531 to 719 and he scored eight more rushing touchdowns.

You’re drafting him purely for physical potential. He is not an accurate, poised passer. When Oklahoma took away his running, he couldn’t do anything. Any NFL system would need to be designed with the quarterback run being a main feature, with limited responsibility initially from the pocket — building the playbook up over time. That’s a big project, not a first round quarterback.

Shedeur Sanders played well in an easy win vs Oklahoma State but had a three play sequence where he took unnecessary sacks to turn a 1st and goal to 4th and goal at the 37 yard line. This is the side of his game that needs major work. He lingers on plays too long, needs to take what’s there or get out of the play. My worry at the next level is he’ll be too focused on the spectacular and it’ll be hard to knock that out of him. It could mean he takes too many risks, absorbs too many sacks and is constantly in a boom-or-bust mode. To his credit he checked down a lot more after dad had a word at half-time but he also threw behind badly leading to an interception. He’s a talented player but if I were the Giants, Raiders or Jets banking on him being a franchise saviour early in the first round — I think they’re in for a shock.

Max Brosmer continues to show he has something. The Minnesota quarterback has had a really understated year — playing well within a system that involves more under-center work than most and excelling in several games. His first touchdown against Wisconsin was a well thrown pass with great anticipation in the red zone with timing and accuracy. Here’s his second passing touchdown of the day:

That’s a perfectly placed throw to attack the mismatched defender. And again — look at the play. It’s a play-action pass under center. Virtually every college quarterback works exclusively from the shotgun these days. You have to figure out how comfortable they are under center in the pre-draft process and camp. Here’s Brosmer turning his back to the defense and when he pivots to throw, he sees a defender in his face. It’s a great pickup by the running back to buy the quarterback an extra second — but he doesn’t panic, he stays calm and poised and delivers a bullseye throw.

I’ve taken a bit of time to study Brosmer’s personality and character and he is highly driven, impressive and has had to work for everything. There’s a player here. The difficulty is how do you project a player without spectacular physical tools? He doesn’t have a weak arm and he’s not immobile but he doesn’t have difference making athleticism or an X-factor arm. Eventually he might just find the NFL is a level too high. That said, of all the quarterbacks who get talked up for the draft, I’ve seen plenty from Brosmer over the last six weeks to justify more attention compared to the others.

Another player who deserves more attention is Memphis’ Seth Henigan. In an upset win against Tulane he was superb — showing great awareness on third downs (10/16) while managing the game and still being able to make impressive downfield throws. He set a new AAC record for career passing yards during the game (13,972) and helped Memphis surpass 20 offensive points for a 39th straight game. The Tigers secured consecutive 10-win seasons for the first time in program history and the quarterback is a big reason why. He is elevating his team.

Check out the game highlights here and watch the throw he makes 28 seconds in. He doesn’t step into the throw due to a muddy pocket but still launches the ball 50-yards downfield with accuracy. This is on 3rd and 9, so it’s a key play.

Henigan has some tools, plenty of experience and he’s had success. Whether he’s quite good enough to start in the NFL remains to be seen but if we’re talking about second and third tier quarterback prospects — he and Brosmer deserve more attention than they get.

Finally among quarterbacks, Georgia Tech’s Haynes King intrigues me. He might not declare but he is eligible. He could’ve/should’ve beaten Georgia in a crazy eight-OT contest. Afterwards I watched several other Georgia Tech games to get a feel for their QB. He’s an excellent athlete, deceptively quick and a hard runner. He outran Jalon Walker to the edge on one play. He was physically exhausted during this game after putting the team on his back as a runner and passer. He shows no quit, can break off big game-breaking runs and also get yards after contact when necessary.

King’s arm is good and he can make plays downfield. I was impressed with how he threw on third downs, including a huge 3rd and 7 completion in the fourth quarter when leading 20-13. A minute later he ran for his second touchdown in what should’ve been the clinching score.

His offense is very RPO heavy. It’s tricky and not exactly pro-style but he was efficient, dynamic, creative and generally did a good job protecting the ball while taking calculated risks.

Overall I like him. I’m intrigued to see if he intends to return to school or turn pro. If he does go back, he’ll be a name to watch in 2025.

Now here are my non-quarterback notes:

— Mike Green had another sack (see below) for Marshall. It’s a stunt, otherwise known as the cheat code for CFB pressure. You can see the closing speed as he bursts to the quarterback though. I really hope Green attends the Senior Bowl so we get a good look at him in 1v1’s:

— Speaking of the Senior Bowl, there’s been a raft of accepted invites in the last few days. It’s great to see the likes of Tai Felton, Elijah Arroyo, Xavier Restrepo, Kalel Mullings, Ty Robinson, Grey Zabel, Riley Leonard, Will Howard, Jordan Burch, Demetrius Knight, Bru McCoy, Josaiah Stewart, Hunter Wohler and Jack Nelson heading to Mobile. It’s a bit of a shame to see Kurtis Rourke accept a Shrine Bowl invite — unless the Senior Bowl didn’t make a big push for him. The Senior Bowl is easily the superior of the two and it was better for the league (and draft enthusiasts) when they weren’t competing.

— On South Carolina linebacker Demetrius Knight, he had a crucial interception to clinch a win against Clemson. Every time I watched the Gamecocks he stood out. It’s frustrating they didn’t make the CFB Playoffs because their defense is loaded with talent. Knight is mature, already has a family, plays every down like it’s his last and he’s had an impact this year. I just hope he tests well.

— I’ve been saying it a few times recently — Alabama linebacker Jihaad Campbell is a tank. My guess is he goes in the top-25 in this class.

— Sticking with linebackers, UCLA’s Carson Schwesinger had another eye-catching performance against Fresno State. He had 15 tackles, a sack, one TFL and one deflected pass in the win. He recorded his ninth 10+ tackle game of the season, the most by a UCLA defender since Eric Kendricks in 2014. When I talk about wanting to see attacking intent from a linebacker — this is what it looks like:

— Jake Majors the Texas center had another strong game against Texas A&M. He won’t go as high as I have him graded (round two) but that’s all the more reason to grab a steal of a player, possibly in round three. To me he has long-term NFL starter written all over him. He can control blocks, his hand placement is good, he’s aggressive and athletic, he can reach to the second level. I like Majors a lot.

— Alabama center Parker Brailsford had an excellent game in pass protection against Auburn. It’s been mostly a steady year for Brailsford but I think we saw flashes of his enormous upside at the weekend. Size and measurements are critical for his stock but there’s no doubting he can play. If Ryan Grubb remains offensive coordinator in Seattle next season, his own experience with players like Brailsford could be very useful. He’ll also get plenty of other intel on Alabama’s prospects from Kalen DeBoer and co.

— Shiloh Sanders delivered one of the hits of the season in the second half of Colorado’s big win against Oklahoma State. You love to see tackles like this:

— It’s becoming increasingly difficult, while watching another productive day for Penn State tight end Tyler Warren, including hurdling defenders with ease, to not project he will go higher than most think. He could go in the top-15 in this class.

— While watching the Memphis vs Tulane game, receiver Greg Desrosiers Jr caught my eye. He made a string of plays including an incredible move to get open on 3rd and 8 to virtually clinch the game. He’s a redshirt junior and a transfer from UMass. I’ll monitor to see if he declares.

— Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson has declared for the NFL. I don’t understand why he isn’t universally considered RB2, which is where we’ve had him for weeks. He has been Iowa’s whole offense this season and can make plays like this:

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