This is a guest post by Curtis Allen…

This game is quite similar to last year’s Week Nine matchup.

The Commanders came into the game 3-5, struggling to keep their heads above water in the NFC playoff race.  They had key players hurt and their defense was an absolute mess.

The Seahawks on the other hand were 5-2 and coming off a strange bye week.  Some players had been hurt during the week off.  They utilized their depth and were ready to start a dominant run.

The game was over by halftime.  Sam Darnold sliced up the Commanders’ defense, going 21-of-24 with four touchdown passes.  It helped that Washington’s pass rush only recorded one – one! – pressure for a barely-registering 4.2% pressure rate.  Team depth players shined, as Ty Okada, Tory Horton, Elijah Arroyo, Cody White and Brandon Pili all made key contributions.

Jayden Daniels hyperextended his left elbow and left the game.

This year, the Commanders are 0-2 and have one of the NFL’s worst defenses again.  They are badly banged up.  Daniels injured his elbow in the same way last week, so Marcus Mariota will be starting in his place.  Also ruled out are several starters and key contributors:  RG Sam Cosmi, TE Chig Okwonko, OLB Frankie Luvu and Safety Nick Cross.

The Seahawks are 2-0 coming off a dominant win against the Cardinals.  Their depth will be deployed, as Anthony Bradford, Julian Love and Ty Okada will be out.

Defending Mariota

With Daniels out, Marcus Mariota steps in.  Mariota is one of the NFL’s better backup Quarterbacks.  A performance similar to Drew Lock’s in the last two games is not out of the question.  Particularly if he is allowed to get into a rhythm.

The biggest change to the offense when Daniels goes out and Mariota comes in is the focus.

Daniels makes throws to be sure — but he also tends to let his talented Wide Receivers clear some room so he can run and dance his way through the defense on the ground.  He is by far the most effective rusher on the Commanders and he sort of pulls everyone else into his orbit.

By contrast, Mariota knows his role.  It is much more of a traditional Quarterback.  His job is to get the ball to the talent.  He uses his legs mostly to buy time in the pocket while keeping his head up to find a target.

The Commanders have one of the league’s deeper Wide Receiver corps — Stefon Diggs, Terry McLaurin and Dyami Brown lead the way.  Treylon Burks and Antonio Williams round out the group and there is not much of a drop-off when they are targeted.

Mariota will act as a distributor of the ball — and not just with checkdowns.  He is able to make good, accurate throws down the field.

After Daniels got hurt last week, Mariota came out firing in the second half.  He found McLaurin for an explosive play and dropped a beautiful 29-yard pass into Dyami Brown but just barely was out of bounds.

On the next drive, down by two touchdowns, the Commanders resorted to trick plays, asking their Wide Receivers to complete passes.  Neither worked and they settled for a field goal try, which was missed.  They may try them again, but their best bet is to get Mariota comfortable.

The Seahawks cannot allow that.

The play is to use their talented advantage in the trenches to keep him out of rhythm.  The Commanders are down their two best Offensive Lineman in Laremy Tunsil and Sam Cosmi.  Their depth is poor, particularly when you consider the depth of the Defensive Line the Seahawks will roll out.

Their trademark blend of getting pressure with four and mixing in a timely blitz should provide them a decided advantage.

Control the Game with the Pass

I wrote this exact game plan for Week Nine last year and that worked very effectively.  Sam Darnold was crisp, decisive and punished the Commanders’ defensive backfield ruthlessly.

Look at this throw to Elijah Arroyo.  Darnold could not have delivered that any better and the defenders are helplessly flailing at the ball.

Oddly enough, the Commanders have not addressed the situation.  Corner Mike Sainristil and Safety Quan Martin are currently two of the worst pass defenders in the NFL.  They will be facing Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tory Horton, Cooper Kupp, AJ Barner and Arroyo.  That is just unfair.

Frankie Luvu will not be playing to provide second-level pass coverage nor rush the passer effectively.  Daron Payne has not been the same player, come to think of it, since he said “Who is that?” when asked about Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

There may be a fan temptation to baby Sam Darnold a bit.  But the numbers and the talent advantage clearly say the Seahawks should take this game to the air.

They are conceding 6.1 yards per play and have allowed seven passing touchdowns.  They are blitzing 36% of the time as an effort to disguise their horrendous backfield.

It is “working” in the sense that they are achieving better results than when they do not blitz.  When they do not blitz the results are ghastly:

It is a small sample size to be sure but the Commanders have one sack, concede an 80% completion rate and are giving up a near-perfect passer rating when they do not blitz.

If Darnold can find his hot reads when blitzed – perhaps making use of the mismatches he has at the Tight End position – this defense will not have answers.

Attacking this defense on the ground will not be an afterthought but the play is to take to the air, get a lead that the Commanders will struggle to keep up with and then pound the ball to run out the clock.