I’ve just finished watching Alabama @ LSU. It was billed as the Julio Jones vs Patrick Peterson contest, but another first round prospect stole the show. Drake Nevis (DT, LSU) is at #26 in my latest mock draft, but it might be time to re-consider that. He’s had a quiet few weeks after starting the season with four sacks in two games. He had a pair of sacks today, including a superb forced fumble on Greg McIlroy to seal the game for his team.
Nevis dominated the line of scrimmage, flashing the kind of athleticism and strength which will put him in the top-20 next April. Scouts might be slightly concerned about his consistency but he stepped up against a big opponent in ‘Bama.
Stout against the run, he regularly took up two blockers creating space for others. He flashed a nice swim move and a burst to get leverage. He was regularly in the backfield to make a splash if not record the tackle. Nick Fairley (DT, Auburn) has received a lot of credit recently for some stunning display’s – but Nevis is right up there too.
So what about Jones vs Peterson? Personally, I think both come out of this well. Peterson gave up some receptions (something Jones didn’t manage in seven throws last year) but he restricted his ability to make the big play. However, with ‘Bama driving late on trying to get back into it – the receiver won out with a 9-yard slant TD. He got position and a step on the #1 CB prospect and McIlroy couldn’t miss. It flashed a better grasp of routes – a major improvement for Jones this year.
His hands are much improved overall but there was an ugly drop late in the game with ‘Bama in an impossible situation – that’s one aspect team’s will have to battle with.
Peterson gets some credit for keeping a lid on Jones overall and not allowing the big play. His stock will remain unchanged after this performance. However – Jones showed why he deserves to be a top-15 pick in my mock draft. Nine catches, 81-yards and a score despite shadowing from CFB’s best defensive back? Major draft credit there.
Every team will watch this tape when they do their evaluations. A team who can’t get at A.J. Green early but need a spark at receiver will consider Julio Jones.
***NOTES***
–Da’Quan Bowers (DE, Clemson) had two more sacks today in an upset win over ranked NC State. That’s 12 sacks in nine games this year. He also blocked a field goal today. I’ve had him going first overall in my last two mocks. Believe it.
–Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State) missed OKSU’s last game through suspension after a DUI incident. He was back today showing why he should be in the Heisman talk. He had 13 more catches for 173 yards and a touchdown. He added a further score on a 69-yard rush. He doesn’t get talked about much, but he might be the best wide out available after A.J. Green and Julio Jones.
–A.J. Green (WR, Georgia) had six catches for Georgia in a blowout win over Idaho State. He scored two touchdowns and topped 100 yards (103) again. He is without doubt a rare talent at his position who should be a top five pick. Routes, speed, control, hands. He doesn’t have elite size, but otherwise he’s the full package.
–Cam Newton (QB, Auburn) put all the controversy behind him this weekend with another big game. For the second week in a row he was productive as a passer – albeit against weak opposition in Chattanooga. He completed 15/21 passing for 317 yards and four touchdowns. He rushed eight times for just 24 yards but a further score. Heisman winner.
I have Arizona/Stanford and Washington/Oregon to be broadcast tomorrow ready for viewing. I’ll have thoughts on those games – and more notes – on the blog tomorrow. If you’ve been watching a game or a specific prospect today let me know what in the comments section – who impressed or disappointed?
On my schedule this weekend are the following games:
Alabama vs LSU
Arkansas vs South Carolina
Arizona vs Stanford
Washington vs Oregon
The key match-up with regard to next April’s draft is Julio Jones (WR, Alabama) vs Patrick Peterson (CB, LSU) which I wrote about in a little more detail here.
It’s also another opportunity to see Ryan Mallett in a tough environment against good opposition. Mallett has made significant strides this year, but following Arkansas’ defeat to Alabama that hasn’t been discussed much. Character issues could keep Mallett out of the first round, but he’s improved enough to justify his decision not to declare for the 2010 draft.
Stanford should defeat Arizona despite only a two-place difference in the rankings. I had a chance to watch Andrew Luck in last week’s blow-out against Washington. He’s moved on from a slightly erratic performance against UCLA and is starting to look a lot more assured. I’ll be looking to see if that continues on Saturday.
Washington vs Oregon has the makings of a one-sided affair and the Huskies made the right decision to hold out Jake Locker. It does make the game a little less intriguing from a draft prospective, but LaMichael James (BR, Oregon) is back on the Heisman radar after news broke yesterday about an investigation involving Cam Newton. He could be a second-round pick if he opts to declare.
Are you watching a game this weekend? Let me know what you’re looking out for in the comments section or email rob@seahawksdraftblog.com
ESPN are reporting allegations that a representative of Cam Newton sought money for the player’s signature during recruitment. The story claims a six figure sum of $180,000 was requested for Newton to sign up with Mississippi State. The Heisman front-runner’s father has distanced his family from the allegations, stating the representative was solely responsible for the approach and was not acting on behalf of Newton. An investigation is under way.
Right now it’s easy to blow this story up and make it into a big deal. Until we learn more or get some clear information via the investigation – there’s no telling how this could affect Newton’s draft stock. I will say this though – teams are going to have to do their homework. He was arrested during his time in Florida for possessing a stolen laptop.
Now this story is out there too.
Newton comes across personable and approachable. He appears to be switched on and comfortable in the spotlight. Nevertheless, there is work to be done by teams who potentially see him as a first round quarterback. I had him going to Cincinnati in my mock draft – a team that has always been willing to give guys the opportunity to ‘move on’. This won’t necessarily harm his draft stock as much as some think.
And one thing is even more certain today – Newton will not be hanging around after this year. He will declare for the 2011 draft.
Last week I wrote positively about Julio Jones after watching his performance against South Carolina. He followed that display with a school-record 12-catch 221-yard effort against Tennessee. This weekend he’ll face-off with LSU’s highly rated cornerback Patrick Peterson. It’s a NFL meeting a year early.
In 2009 Jones scored his only 100+ yard game against LSU. It’s a slightly deceiving statistic though – a 73-yard touchdown screen padded out the stats and doesn’t represent the way Peterson handled Alabama’s star receiver. ESPN’s Todd McShay sheds some light on what really happened:
Jones caught four passes for 102 yards and a touchdown when these teams met last season, but don’t let the stats fool you into thinking he got the best of Peterson. The two were matched up on 74 percent of the snaps when both were on the field and Jones was targeted on seven of those plays. All seven were in-completions, including an interception that was incorrectly ruled out of bounds.
When I watched Florida vs Alabama this year, I kept a close eye on how Janoris Jenkins (CB, Florida) handled Jones. To be blunt, he completely shut him down. Jones had just four catches for 19 yards – all dump offs and short stuff. When scouts grade Jenkins in the off season they’ll watch the tape of his displays against Jones and A.J. Green last Saturday and that’s why he’ll go as early as I’ve proposed in my latest mock draft.
Alabama have switched their offense slightly this year. Having lost a number of key defensive prospects to the NFL (Terrance Cody, Rolando McClain, Kareem Jackson, Javier Arenas), they haven’t been able to smother teams and dominate with the run. LSU’s stumbling offense might let them off the hook in a similar way they destroyed Florida. However, if the Tigers can keep up, it’ll force ‘Bama to throw.
Expect Peterson to shadow Jones throughout. If he’s going to go as early as some are suggesting (top 5-10) we need to see a big performance. However – it’s an even bigger challenge for Jones.
This week I put him in the top ten of my latest mock. As a prospect with all the physical tools to be a #1 receiver, he’s started to match production with potential. If he excels against a future top NFL cornerback on Saturday – that move will be justified. If he’s shut down again – my original assessment (that Jones deserves to be in the 20-32 range) may have been correct.
I’ve updated the prospect tracker today, which can be located by clicking here or selecting the logo in the lower title bar (you’ll need to click ‘Home’ to view this). Here you’ll find updated 2010 statistics for all of next April’s top draft prospects. It’s a good way to compare how the different individuals are performing – although admittedly stats only tell one side of the story.
Nevertheless I wanted to compare Cam Newton’s passing numbers to the other prospects expected to go early in the 2011 draft. I’ll come to that in a moment. Continue reading
If you’re unable to watch some of the weekend’s big games, I’d recommend visiting the SEC’s official website. The ‘video’ section archives all the games in full – including most recently Auburn vs Ole Miss, Florida vs Georgia and Kentucky vs Mississipi State. If you want to take a look at guys like Cam Newton, Nick Fairley, A.J. Green, Janoris Jenkins and Derek Sherrod – it’s the perfect opportunity. I’d recommend watching Green vs Jenkins from the Florida/Georgia game.
For the first time this year I’ve published a full first round mock projection. I’ve taken the time to try and see as many prospects as possible to try and project, even at this early stage, where certain individuals may fall. The draft order is a mix of current NFL standings and projections. Atlanta and New England pick 31st and 32nd overall purely on NFC and AFC rankings.
To view the updated 2011 NFL mock draft, click here or select ‘Mock Draft’ in the title bar.
Cam Newton (QB, Auburn) features for the first time. As you can see, he’s also amongst the top ten picks. For starters, it’s an absolute lock that Newton will declare. His stock will never be higher than it is now and the issues he’ll have in the pro’s are unlikely to be solved with another year at Auburn. If they reach/win the BCS title game, you also have to wonder what else he can achieve in the college game.
The big advantage would be extra experience starting, which is always a major bonus. However, having transferred from Florida via the JUCO ranks, he’d have to return as a fifth year senior. He will declare for the 2011 draft.
So why do I put him in the top ten, especially when I’ve voiced concerns about drafting him early?
Last night I sat down and studied every snap Newton took against LSU. Some of my concerns remain – specifically with the way he drops all weight on to his back foot when throwing, losing almost all velocity. This is a footwork issue and although he does take snaps under centre, he clearly needs to work on every aspect of drop backs, reads, getting the ball out quickly and developing almost completely as an all round passer.
The good news and an area where I have perhaps under estimated is the fact his release point is actually very good. He has an over the top release without the looping delay that Tim Tebow had or the side arm motion we see with Jimmy Clausen or Vince Young. He’ll learn to get his throws out crisply and drive through the ball. If he gets his footwork right, there’s no reason why he can’t be an orthodox passer.
It’s hard to judge accuracy when he doesn’t throw that much and with most defenses petrified of conceding the run. However, I’m yet to see anything off-putting. He isn’t wildly inconsistent and most of his passes hit the target. He’s got a range, he has a big arm. There’s something to work with.
And most of all he’s an elite athlete who will hurt teams with some specific run plays. He won’t be using the QB draw every other down ala Auburn, but you can use him in roll outs and bootlegs with success.
The point I’m trying to make with this diagnosis is that there’s enough on the tape for a team to buy in to Newton as a starting NFL quarterback. Right now he isn’t a natural pocket passer and it will take major work to get there. Is it impossible? No. Are the other benefits – the world class athlete… the dynamic playmaker… things that teams love to gamble on?
Yes.
If Tim Tebow is a first round pick at all, then Cam Newton is a high first round pick. Essentially, he’s Tebow but with much greater athleticism and mechanics. He doesn’t have the ‘moxy’ (again, hate the word – especially when describing QB’s) that Tebow brought to the table, but both have a lot of developing to do as passers, yet Newton’s ceiling is outrageously higher than Tebow’s.
Would I take the risk myself? It’s a big project and I’m still not certain. Can he be that orthodox QB that is capable of beating a team by throwing? Is he just a rare athlete who can outclass college players, but will be smothered in the pro’s? Is his destiny merely as a trick play gimmick or H-Back? Or will he be the next big thing?
Somebody will have convinced themselves of the latter by next April and he will go early.
Seahawks in round two?
Some suggestions for the direction Seattle could go in round two:
– Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame) – hands, routes and effort will keep him out of R1. He has the size and speed Seattle is looking for in it’s wide outs.
– Pernell McPhee (DE/DT, Miss. St) – a five technique candidate who can move inside as well.
– Rodney Hudson (OG, Florida State) – big talent if not big size. Should Seahawks stick by ZBS, Hudson is the perfect fit at guard or center.
– Cameron Hewyard (DE, Ohio State) – over rated for me and not a first round pick, but another 5-tech candidate later on.
– Von Miller (OLB, Texas A&M) – under sized but could have value as an edge specialist.
– J.J. Watt (DE, Wisconsin) – another 5-tech candidate with a growing reputation.
Agree or disagree? Let me know your thoughts on the latest 2011 Mock Draft or anything else you want to discuss. Get in touch in the comments section or email rob@seahawksdraftblog.com
The injury itself won’t be of great concern to scouts. It makes sense to keep Locker out of a game Washington haven’t much hope of winning any way and allowing time to heal. What it does do however is eliminate another key game from the schedule for Locker to flash his talents on a national scale.
The Ducks are currently ranked number one in the BCS Rankings. A performance of any kind in that game would’ve been duly noted. Instead scouts will linger on another disjointed display in Saturday’s blowout to Stanford, which renewed memories of a previous stock-killer against Nebraska.
Admittedly it would be harsh to pin much blame on Locker’s shoulders. He barely had a chance against Stanford, who systematically destroyed Washington in the trenches and regularly stopped Locker before he had a chance to flash his undoubted ability.
However – NFL teams will look at a prospect who hasn’t taken a leap forward as a fifth year senior. His numbers are not improved, his best win will probably be against USC again and he hasn’t shown any greater poise as a passer to compliment the playmaking ability. They’ll bare in mind Locker’s circumstance, but they’ll also wonder if the upside is high enough to warrant the big investment.
Right now I would put his stock firmly in that 25-40 range, depending on where certain teams are picking next April. That doesn’t mean I don’t think Locker will go earlier, it’s all about draft order. He isn’t going to fall out of the second round because there’s a high enough ceiling to justify investment earlier than that. He’s a far better prospect overall than Jimmy Clausen in my opinion.
Promise will not be enough to justify a high selection. Unless someone is really sold on his potential, I don’t see him falling as high as we thought before this season began. The emergence of Cam Newton (QB, Auburn) is an interesting side-story too. In my next mock draft this week, he’ll be making a first appearance. I’ve raised serious concerns about Newton as a passer. However – I do feel, like Tebow last year, someone will roll that dice in round one. The difference being here – Newton is a much, much greater athlete than Tebow and is nowhere near the mechanical headache Tebow was as a passer.
When you throw Ryan Mallett into the equation and potentially Blaine Gabbert too, there will be alternatives to Locker available.
Lot’s of people will point to Locker’s decision to return for another year at Washington. Certainly it’s been proven that staying in college gives scouts the chance to further dissect your game and perhaps lower your grade. Could this hurt Locker? Maybe – but you can also look at Sam Bradford who went back to Oklahoma, got injured and missed the entire year but still went first overall. Alternatively, Jimmy Clausen declared as an underclassman and didn’t go as high as he expected. Locker supposedly wasn’t given a first round grade by the draft advisory group before deciding to pass on the 2010 draft.
I was able to watch the first three quarters of the Stanford vs Washington game (or Luck vs Locker as it’s become). I’ve just got back home from working in London and will be up early tomorrow (it’s 1:30am here) to return to the city for tomorrow’s Denver vs San Francisco game. However, I wanted to open up this thread as a discussion center for those watching the game or any of the CFB this weekend.
Frankly it’s impossible to scout Jake Locker in this situation. Washington’s offensive line has been shambolic. He’s taken a couple of big hits, had almost no time in the pocket and has became jittery.
But as bad as Washington’s offensive and defensive lines were, Stanford were the polar opposite. It certainly makes life easy for Andrew Luck – who had an age to throw and is able to lean on a completely dominant run game. Having said that – Luck has cleary made significant strides from the UCLA game. His throws are a lot more restrained, he’s moving the ball well and his accuracy is much improved. He’s nowhere near as erratic despite a similar blow-out.
A 51-yard touchdown run from Luck flashed the kind of athletic qualities he has. As a passer he’s milked Washington dry.
In my last mock draft I put Luck in San Francisco. That would be an ideal situation. It’s close to his current home, he’ll have a solid young O-line. He’ll be able to lean on a power back (Frank Gore) with two legitimate targets to throw to (Davis/Crabtree). A match made in heaven.
Elsewhere, Cam Newton (who will almost certainly declare for 2011 and will be in my next mock) is stamping is name all over the Heisman. He’s caught a TD pass today and thrown a lot more in a beat-down of Ole Miss.
I’ve also caught some of Florida vs Georgia. It was interesting to watch Janoris Jenkins (CB, Florida) perform well against AJ Green (WR, Georgia). Jenkins has done a great job this year covering Julio Jones and Green. That’s probably the two elite WR prospects from the 2011 class. He struggled, however, against Terrance Tolliver (WR, LSU) who might be a UDFA or late round pick.
The reason? When it comes to pure coverage, Jenkins might be the best corner in next April’s draft. When asked to make open field tackles or confront a big receiver in space, he’s one of the worst. Nevertheless, he’ll go early – teams love corner’s that can cover. Jenkins has elite cover skills.
I’ve got games to watch when I get back from London. Expect plenty on the blog Monday. Until then, let me know any thoughts you have in the comments section on this weekends action.
I’m going to be in London this weekend for – amongst other things – the game between Denver and San Francisco at Wembley Stadium. I’ve got Miami vs Virginia, USC vs Oregon and Missouri vs Nebraska on record to watch next week.
I watched Florida State’s defeat to North Carolina State last night. Nearly every mock draft I see has Christian Ponder (QB, FSU) in the first or second round (example 1, example 2). Personally, I find that astonishing. I go into more detail here but I wouldn’t draft him in the first four rounds. We’re in danger of overstating percevied intelligence off the field and ‘moxie’ and ignoring glaring physical weaknesses and a lack of accuracy.
Let me quote Ron Jaworski, who had this to say when reviewing Cardinals’ rookie Max Hall:
“The one thing we’ve heard about Max is the moxy and the leadership. Those are all wonderful attributes for a quarterback but the attributes you have to have week in week out to be successful over a long period of time is the ability to throw the football accurately and with velocity. When I look at the tape I don’t see either of those. I don’t see the ball going down the field. You see the bubble screen, the bootleg thrown in the flat and nothing down the field. You just don’t see a skill set that projects to be a consistent NFL quarterback. Things don’t look good when you’re on the field with Max Hall. It’s that simple. I’m sure he’s a wonderful guy giving everything he’s got but the skill set just isn’t there.”
Clearly this is very specific to Max Hall. However, this certainly relates to some of the issues I have with Ponder. He doesn’t have a strong arm, in fact it’s pretty weak. His first downfield pass against North Carolina State last night was a high floaty ball with zero velocity into double coverage.
One thing I just don’t ‘get’ with Ponder is the lack of velocity he even puts on his wide receiver screens. The idea of a screen pass is to get the ball quickly to the wide out who can take advantage of soft coverage. When Ponder throws the ball out, it’s almost like he’s concentrating too much in simply hitting the receiver, as it floats out with nowhere near enough zip. The defensive back has more than enough time to read the play, react and make the tackle.
His decision making and accuracy have been all over the place in 2010. In the last two games against NC State and Boston College, I counted three times when Ponder took play action, turned to his right only to be greeted by a defensive lineman charging to him. In this situation he has to either take the sack and accept the broken play, try and throw the ball away or make a play with his legs. On each occasion Ponder simply threw the ball straight at the DL allowing the pass to be tipped up into the air. It led to one interception against BC and another similar play for a pick six was called back because of a fortunate false start. This is just one example of the way Ponder tries too hard to force throws.
A lot of people talk about his intelligence and leadership. When you hear Ponder in interviews he comes across most personable and clearly switched on. I’ve no doubt he’s a hard worker off the field and studying won’t be an issue at the next level. We need to distinguish between off the field intelligence and on the field smarts. I don’t think Ponder reads the game well enough. There are too many basic errors, too many botched plays. I don’t like Greg McIlroy as a pro-prospect and he’s physically limited. However – you can see he’s ‘game smart’ by the fact he limits his mistakes and simply keeps things ticking over. He manages. Ponder doesn’t.
The clearest example of this was the last real play of the game. Florida State had stormed down field into the red zone with seconds left needing a touchdown to win. Play action was the call, but Ponder faked the hand off wrongly to the full back – so when the half back arrived for the ball they collided, forcing a fumble.
On three occassions last night, Ponder reacted badly to dropped passes. Admittedly, on all three occassions the ball was on the money and the catch needed to be completed. However – sinking to your knees with your head in your hands after such a mistake is not the way to lead your team.
Stats can be misleading in many ways. A wideout like Julio Jones did suffer last year playing in a run-dominant offense. Due to his well publicised ‘drops’, many over emphasised the mental errors – which although they did exist – were not the sole reason for a slight sophomore slump.
Some quaterbacks get praised for stats when they play in a pass friendly system. As good as Sam Bradford is, his incredible 50 touchdown Heisman year played some part to the offense he played in as well as his incredible talent.
Florida State aren’t a bad team. They’ve defeated Miami and even when their quarterback has played very poorly (vs Boston College) they’ve done enough to win. But I just don’t know what to make of Ponder’s numbers. In eight games, he’s only reached 200+ yards once – against a decidedly poor Wake Forest outfit. He’s ranked only the fourth best QB in the distinctly average ACC. His 13-7 TD/INT ratio isn’t disastrous, but it isn’t that great either. His completion percentage is down from 68% last year to 60% this year.
You can make of that what you will. However, scouts will watch the tape from 2010 and see a prospect who just hasn’t performed well enough. Physically limited, not accurate enough to make up for it and hasn’t put up the big numbers despite some weak opponents. He had a second round grade coming into 2010 and hasn’t done anything this year to improve that.
I can only see a backup role in the NFL at best. Even then – I don’t think he’ll beat teams physically or with his accuracy. He could well be another Max Hall – struggling to get the ball down field, making basic errors. He’s more athletic than Max Hall for sure, but not in terms of being able to hurt a team. He’ll move around in the pocket a bit more, but he isn’t a good passer on the move and struggles to keep his eyes downfield.
But then we come back to the ‘moxie’ and ‘intelligence’. That will never be a good enough reason alone to grade a prospect in round one. It’s why Colt McCoy went in round three (despite a much better CFB career) and probably should’ve gone later than even that. You don’t go the other way and over promote a physical specimen who isn’t switched on (JaMarcus Russell). Ponder is neither physical or accurate enough to deserve the high grade some people have offered.
***Weekend Links***
Chad Reuter and Rob Rang from NFL Draft Scout look at the top senior prospects on offense and defense. I don’t agree with Rang that Cameron Heyward is the best defensive end and think he’s another ‘big name’ who’s slightly over rated. Neither Heyward or Allen Bailey (Miami) have great production this year – but Bailey is by far the more physically talented. Note the use of ‘moxie’ in Reuter’s review of Ponder. He does at least appreciate his inability to drive the ball downfield.
Walter Cherepinsky publishes an updated mock draft. He has the Seahawks drafting 21st overall in round one and selecting Jake Locker (QB, Washington). I don’t think that’s an unrealistic proposition. I do however disagree with the choice in round two – Kritofer O’Dowd (C, USC). This is too high for O’Dowd, particularly with Stephen Paea (DT, Oregon State) and Rodney Hudson (G, FSU) still on the board.
Mocking the Draftpasses on information regarding Aaron Williams (CB, Texas) intentions for the 2011 NFL Draft. “On the season, Williams has 30 tackles, seven pass breakups, seven passes defended, five tackles for a loss, three forced fumbles and a sack.”
Mel Kiperhosts his weekly web chat. He says he has Florida State’s brilliant guard Rodney Hudson ranked 28th on his big board. He also discusses a number of other big name prospects.
A video to finish with. Want to know more about Auburn QB Cam Newton (who appears almost certain to enter the 2011 draft)?
If you’re unable to watch some of the weekend’s big games, I’d recommend 
