Jason Spriggs is one of only two ‘explosive’ offensive linemen in the 2016 draft
I want to put a bow on this weeks discussion on O-line measurables. Yesterday’s evidence clearly suggests the Seahawks put a lot of draft focus on the broad jump when looking for offensive linemen. Can we take it a step further?
Pat Kirwan, who is close to Pete Carroll, discusses a way of calculating explosive athleticm in this article:
Every time a ball is snapped to start a play there is a critical element of explosiveness that takes place. When two players collide in an attempt to physically dominate each other, the athlete with the edge in explosiveness has the best chance to win the confrontation. It could be a blocker vs. a tackler, a tackler vs. a ball carrier, or many other examples of winning at the point of contact.
Explosiveness is defined in the dictionary as a violent release of energy, a sudden outburst. Football is a series of explosions. How do you measure it in athletes trying to play NFL football?
Take the vertical jump, standing broad jump and the bench press test results and add them together. If the combined score is over 70 there is a reason to consider the candidate at some point in the draft process for his explosiveness.
Kirwan’s formula is flawed because it diminishes the impact of the broad jump. A superb 9-7 only achieves a 1.2 point advantage of a below par 8-5. That said, the data still provides an interesting comparison between the previously drafted Seahawks linemen and this years class.
This piece by Davis Hsu and Danny Kelly also offered some interesting quotes by Tom Cable:
“The really cool thing about this group: All of them are broad jumpers of 9-feet or more, they all vertical over 31-inches, they all can lift 27-plus, and they all can change direction the right way.”
Softy pressed him, “You mention 31, nine, and 27-plus, is that kind of the barometer for you? Do you have a set of numbers that you say, okay, if i were to create an offensive lineman from clay, these are the numbers in the broad jump, the vertical leap, the bench press that I’m looking for. Are those the numbers that you’re looking for — the ones you just quoted?”
“Yeah,” replied Cable.
I went back to have a look at the O-liners drafted by Seattle since 2012 to confirm how they performed in the vertical, broad and bench press. You’ll find the information below, plus Kirwan’s (and possibly Carroll’s) ‘explosion’ number in brackets after the players name:
Mark Glowinski (71.5)
VJ 31 BJ 9-5 BP 31
Terry Poole (65.5)
VJ 31 BJ 9-5 BP 25
Kristjan Sokoli (79)
VJ 38 BJ 9-11 BP 31
Justin Britt (64.8)
VJ 29.5 BJ 9-3 BP 26
Garrett Scott (68.2)
VJ 33.5 BJ 9-7 BP 25
Ryan Seymour (68.2)
VJ 29 BJ 9-2 BP 30
Jared Smith (70.2)
VJ 32.5 BJ 9-7 BP 28
J.R. Sweezy (66.5)
VJ 36 BJ 9-5 BP 21
Garry Gilliam UDFA (63.7)
VJ 35 BJ 9-7 BP 19
Of this group, only Glowinski, Sokoli and Smith actually qualify for the 31 — 9 — 27 discussed by Cable. The same three players are the only ones to top Kirwan’s ‘explosive’ marker of 70 points.
This would tend to suggest that as long as you perform well in the broad (the greatest test of an athletes explosion) they’re willing to make concessions elsewhere.
Let’s now review the 2016 class (I’ve only included the prospects that achieved Seattle’s +9-foot marker in the broad jump):
Jason Spriggs (75.7)
VJ 35 BJ 9-7 BP 31
Halapoulivaati Vaitai (61.5)
VJ 29 BJ 9-5 BP 23
Brandon Shell (61.9)
VJ 30.5 BJ 9-4 BP 22
Joe Haeg (incomplete)
VJ 30 BJ 9-3 BP DNP
Alex Redmond (67.3)
VJ 28 BJ 9-3 BP 30
Joe Thuney (65.8)
VJ 28.5 BJ 9-3 BP 28
Cody Whitehair (50.7)
VJ 25.5 BJ 9-2 BP 16
Germain Ifedi (65.6)
VJ 32.5 BJ 9-1 BP 24
Joe Dahl (68.1)
VJ 31 BJ 9-1 BP 28
Connor McGovern (75.1)
VJ 33 BJ 9-1 BP 33
Jake Brendel (62)
VJ 28 BJ 9-0 BP 25
Joel Heath (68.5)
VJ 33 BJ 9-5 BP 26
Of this group, only Jason Spriggs, Joe Dahl and Connor McGovern hit the 31 — 9 — 27 mark discussed by Cable. Spriggs and McGovern are the only two ‘explosive’ linemen according to Kirwan’s formula.
The Seahawks haven’t stuck stringently to those two marks in the way they have with a +9-foot broad jump. 31 — 9 — 27 seems like more of an ideal than a prerequisite.
Justin Murray, who reportedly visited the VMAC this week, had a 29.5 inch vertical, a 9-8 in the broad jump and 20 reps on the bench press at his pro-day. That only creates a 59.3 explosion score.
Broad jump >>>>> everything else
We can still decipher some information from this data:
— Cody Whitehair’s explosion score is significantly lower than any of Seattle’s drafted linemen since 2012. That and the fact Carroll and Schneider have never drafted an offensive lineman with sub-33 inch arms suggests he might be an unlikely fit at #26.
— Halapoulivaati Vaitai, Brandon Shell and Jake Brendel also scored significantly lower than the least explosive lineman Seattle has drafted since 2012 (Justin Britt).
— Jason Spriggs and Connor McGovern tick every single box. Length, tackle experience, broad jump, 31 — 9 — 27 and explosion score.
— Joe Dahl’s explosion score is similar to Garrett Scott’s, who the Seahawks really liked. He also qualifies under 31 — 9 — 27. The only thing he lacks is a +70 explosion score and he’s pretty close at 68.1. Based on this information there is every chance he will be high on Seattle’s wish list alongside Spriggs and McGovern.
— Germain Ifedi is three bench reps short of qualifying under 31 — 9 — 27. Considering his 36 inch arms, the Seahawks are probably willing to let that fly. His explosion score is 65.6 but being able to jump a 32.5 inch vertical and record a 9-1 in the broad at 6-6 and 324lbs is likely to be explosive enough for any team.
— Joe Haeg didn’t do the bench press at the combine or his pro-day. Barring a surprise performance similar to Cody Whitehair’s 16 reps, there’s no reason to discount him from any projected Seahawks target list.
— Le’Raven Clark and Shon Coleman are yet to test fully due to injury. They are candidates to both test explosively and come close to Cable’s ideal physical profile.
— Joel Heath, a player we’ve discussed as a potential D-line to O-line convert, had a 33 inch vertical, a 9-5 in the broad jump and recorded 26 reps on the bench press. That’s pretty close to the 31 — 9 — 27. He has a 68.5 explosion score — third only to Spriggs and McGovern.
Since 2012 the Seahawks have not selected any of the 15 best O-line performers in the short shuttle or three cone at the combine. It’s worth noting, however, that Spriggs (4.44) and Haeg (4.47) both tested well in the short shuttle.
We’ll find out how accurate this data is in a few weeks. At the moment, it’s not unfair to consider the Seahawks will draft from the following offensive linemen:
Jason Spriggs (Indiana)
Germain Ifedi (Texas A&M)
Connor McGovern (Missouri)
Joe Dahl (Washington State)
Joe Haeg (North Dakota State)
Le’Raven Clark (Texas Tech) and Shon Coleman (Auburn) could also be on the list depending on how they eventually test. Likewise Joel Heath (Michigan State) if they see him as the latest defense-to-offense convert.
As it happens, Spriggs and Ifedi are being largely projected in the last third of the first round and McGovern, Haeg and Dahl anywhere from rounds 2-4.
Clark and Coleman are also candidates to go in the late first.
If the Seahawks wanted to draft two offensive linemen early, they could probably achieve it with this group even if they chose not to spend their first round pick on the O-line.
I want to finish by reaffirming why this data is important. None of this information is a catalyst for NFL success. The reason why we’re focusing on it — and why the Seahawks appear to put a lot of stock in it — is the growing discrepancy between defensive and offensive athletes.
This is highlighted by the fact that Jason Spriggs had the best broad jump by an offensive lineman at the 2016 combine with a 9-7. Fifteen defensive line prospects beat that mark.
The entire NFL is struggling to find good offensive linemen. It’s an easy physical calculation to think if you put a guy on the field who broad jumps a 9-10 at 300lbs (Sheldon Rankins) against a player who broad jumps 8-0 (Evan Boehm) there’s going to be a problem. One player is significantly more explosive than the other.
Sheldon Rankins’ explosion number is 72.5. That is superior to any offensive lineman in the draft apart from Jason Spriggs and Connor McGovern. At least Rankins vs Spriggs/McGovern would be a fair fight. Boehm’s explosion number is only 60.5.
It comes back to Pat Kirwan’s quote from earlier in the piece:
When two players collide in an attempt to physically dominate each other, the athlete with the edge in explosiveness has the best chance to win the confrontation.
Considering the way college offensive lines are used these days — Tom Cable and other coaches have complained that they are having to virtually train rookies from scratch with only a few exceptions. If that is the case, it’s not unfair for a team to consider the following — why not coach up the player who is at least physically comparable to the defensive lineman standing on the other side of the LOS?
And the NFL’s top offensive linemen — how do they test?
Joe Thomas, Andrew Whitworth, Joe Staley, Tyron Smith, Trent Williams, Terron Armstead, Jason Peters, Ryan Clady, Taylor Lewan, Lane Johnson. They all had a +9″ broad jump.
Meanwhile the Seahawks have announced the re-signing of Chris Clemons. This adds another rotational piece to the D-line and increases the likelihood the Seahawks won’t take a pure edge rusher with their top two picks. They already have Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril, Frank Clark and Chris Clemons to rotate.
It probably increases the chances that they’ll focus on offensive linemen, adding a DE-DT hybrid, defensive tackles and SAM/DE hybrids in the early rounds.
Please:
R1: OT
R2: DL
R3A: OL/RB
R3B: OL/RB
R4: OL
or
R1: DL
R2: OT
R3A: OL/RB
R3B: OL/RB
R4: OL
To come away with a OT that can play RT, McGovern to learn and play at C, and Dahl to either win LG or be a utility backup…that would be epic. If those three things can happen along with us getting a quality DT/DE and RB Ervin…wowza. And ontop of that if this guy: https://twitter.com/Garry_Gilliam/status/715986531274596352 can be even just decent at LT his first year at the position? Holy frak we could come out of this looking so nice.
I know he is “the one who shall not be named” and I agree with your opinions on him Rob, but he said this today:
>Gilliam at LT really gives the flexibility to look for a cool, pass-rushing DT in the 1st. Then pick from Ifedi, Clark, Coleman in 2nd for RT. That group should be (correctly) drafted between 40-60 anyways. This is not forcing/reaching.
Now he could be wrong, but IF…IF….Ifedi, Clark or Coleman are there in R2 where we have our 56th pick…which allows us to draft a pass rushing DT at 26, then OT at 56, then IF….IF….Mcgovern is there in the 3rd, then Ervin, then Dahl in the 4th?
Probably wishful thinking but damn i’d love those picks.
I think it’s extremely optimistic of that individual to think Clark, Coleman or Ifedi will be there at #56. Ifedi and Clark definitely won’t be. If Coleman is it’s down to injury or health only and for that reason you probably don’t draft him there anyway if you’re Seattle.
The Seahawks might be willing to take McGovern in round two — or even Haeg or Dahl. That’s if they feel like they can’t leave the draft without Jonathan Bullard (who might not be there at #26 anyway).
But I still retain they are more likely to go OL (Spriggs or Ifedi) at #26, then take a DT-DE who runs a 4.50 short shuttle (Willie Henry), Kyler Fackrell to play SAM-DE or athletic freak Bronson Kaufusi at #56.
I agree but I am just worried we come away from the draft without McGovern. REALLY want that guy. Think i’d be down with trading up from the 3rd round to get him if JS felt that was the only way to get him. Then with our single R3 (comp) pick grabbing Ervin if available.
How do you feel about a draft that nets us:
R1: Ifedi
R2: Henry/Fackrell/Kaufusi
R3A: RB/OL (McGovern gone)
R3B: RB/OL (McGovern gone)
?
Would you be bummed to see us miss out on McGovern?
Seems like SEA will take one of McGovern or Dahl.
I actually think I prefer Dahl from the tape I have seen so far. I think we should be able to get him in the 3rd which would be a great pick. He can play any position on the OL but I like him as out future C.
I wouldn’t worry about McGovern too much. The only place that has really talked about him in R2 is here because we saw Mitch Morse rise like that. Very little buzz that the same happens with McGovern. He might be there in the late third for all we know.
> He might be there in the late third for all we know.
I will dream for this.
Their hand could be forced depending on how the draft falls to them. But if Bullard, Ifedi, Spriggs and Clark are there at 26, which way do they go? Which way would you go?
R1 – Spriggs/Ifedi
R2 – Kaufusi
R1 – Bullard
R2 – McGovern/Dahl
I personally wouldn’t take Clark at #26 but that’s me and not them. I’d happily draft Bullard or Ifedi. Spriggs I’m less enthused about on tape but he meets every physical ideal for the Seahawks. He did have a good performance vs Joey Bosa.
Kaufusi is a real mystery to me. Looks great at times but also not so great. Massive size and agility, incredible in fact. J.J. Watt, Carlos Dunlap style size/agility. But there’s just something that holds you back. Like Fackrell a lot. And Willie Henry.
Just a comparison…
Henry Anderson (R3, #93)
6’6″ 294lbs, 33.5″ arms, 4.97/2.90/1.74 40yd, 30″ VJ, 9’03” BJ, 4.19 SS, 7.20 3C, 23 BP
Bronson Kaufusi
6’6″ 285lbs, 34.5″ arms, 4.87/2.84/1.69 40yd, 30″ VJ, 9’03” BJ, 4.25 SS, 7.03 3C, 25 BP
Loved Anderson as a DT.
Kaufusi is even more athletic but wish I liked his chances of working inside.
Anderson was one of your better calls in that draft. He acquitted himself very well as a rookie and I expect he’ll build on that in 2016.
Kaufusi doesn’t seem suited to working inside, but if he can add 10lbs of muscle (mostly in his legs)and can learn to keep his pad level low he might be able to handle it. He’s not ideally suited for speed rushing off the edge considering his lack of bend, but he’s a fierce hand fighter and surprisingly elusive close up. I like his agility along the LOS to chase plays down from behind. Not sure about his ability to hold the POA.
I just don’t know how you can look at Ifedi’s tape, then look at Sprigg’s tape and then feel like it is even a close call. Coleman and Spriggs are so much better than Ifedi on tape. And by this metric Spriggs is also way ahead of Ifedi there as well. People talk abot Spriggs having finesse or spotty tape and that is fine. But can anyone really tell me that Ifedi has that mauler, finisher type tape? Good grief, the guy is a behemoth and he should be road grating guys. But the most ferocious thing he does his use a good kick slide to catch them, bear hug them, and half the time his hands are on the outside of the frame. The Seahawks will be foolish to not take Spriggs in the 1st and McGovern in the 3rd if they can. The more insight we get in to what the Seahawks value in the the O Line, and the more it points to guys like Spriggs, McGovern and Dahl and still it seems like the consensus is Ifedi and anybody else. I hope we actually can add some combination of Spriggs, Coleman, McGovern or Dahl. We could revitalize our line over the next couple of seasons
I would love Bullard at 26, he seems like such a safe pick. A very sound football player. Very Seahawky.
Rd #1 Rankins (l know deaming) / Bullard / Jones
Rd#2 Coleman or Clark
Rd#3 Dahl / Haeg/ Mcgovern
Rd#3 Comp Tyler Ervin
With these 4 picks we would basically fill any holes this championship caliber squad has.
Wake up, man! LOL
Rankins will probably go top-15 or top-20.
What about that starting lb spot in base defense…… give me Darron Lee
Rob, great stuff as always!
As an alternative to depending more and more on raw athleticism in order to make up for the athleticism advantage that defenders have over o-linemen, would the Seahawks consider shifting to more of a 2-TE offense?
New England seems to value that alignment, they’ll start both Martellus Bennett and Rob Gronkowski. Both can block and catch, giving their offense balance.
Personally, I think Carroll/Bevell/Cable should strongly consider reducing the snaps of the FB position and start Graham and Luke Willson to help with protection and give the offense more versatility.
Any thoughts?
It might be more likely with Rawls and not Marshawn at RB.
And there are some interesting TE’s in this draft. Not so much in terms of being explosive targets, but in terms of being both dynamic receivers and good blockers.
Hunter Henry
Tyler Higbee (a personal favorite)
Nick Vannett
3 guys who would help with that transition to 2-TE as base offense.
A quartet of interesting TE prospects for Day 3/UDFA
Ben Braunecker Harvard
6’3″ 250lbs, 4.65 40yd, 37.5″ VJ, 10’1″ BJ, 4.20 SS, 6.90 3C, 20 BP
Beau Sandland Montana State
6’4″ 253lbs, 4.74 40yd, 35″ VJ, 10’4″ BJ, 4.33 SS, 7.10 3C, 23 BP
Anthony Norris Southern Utah
6’4″ 255lbs, 4.77 40yd, 41″ VJ, 10’11” BJ, 4.64 SS, 7.26 3C, 25 BP
Steven Scheu Vanderbilt
6’4″ 253lbs, 4.75 40yd, 33″ VJ, 9’8″ BJ, 4.35 SS, 7.14 3C, 23 BP
Scheu also was the Commodores long snapper.
Excellent, CHawk! You always do a great job with your posts. And amazing job digging up Scheu’s long snapping, that definitely could come in handy for the Hawks.
Thanks H M! I’m very grateful to be a part of this community.
How does everyone feel about Chase Coffman or Cooper Helfet? We do have 4 TEs on the roster. They seem to be more catching-oriented than blocking.
I agree – I’ve been wondering about TE’s, and the Schu long snapper thing is awesome.
I really think we take a TE this year, just not sure where. We need competition with Helfet for the #3 (and probably its the #2 TE to start the season).
FWIW:
Braunecker projected R5-R6 range
Sandland projected R6-R7 range
Scheu and Norris projected R7-UDFA
would you mind saying who that person is-I honestly don’t know who you’re referring to, sorry
What I’m saying is that maybe the Hawks should use 2 tight ends as their base defense to help in pass pro, to run block, and to run patterns and receive. The fullback shouldn’t be totally phased out, but should be given a reduced role.
Sorry, obviously I meant: 2 tight ends as their base offense.
Sorry, I meant to reply to the first comment on the thread – could someone fill me in as to who “the one who shall not be named” is?
Dammed mobile
Haha, no problem. We all know how that feels!
He’s the “draft guru” at fieldgulls.
I really love this forensic, reverse-engineering approach to deciphering SEA’s draft strategy for the OL. Great stuff.
The OL short list:
T/G:
Jason Spriggs (Indiana)
Germain Ifedi (Texas A&M)
Le’Raven Clark (Texas Tech)
Joe Haeg (North Dakota State)
Shon Coleman (Auburn)
G/C:
Connor McGovern (Missouri)
Joe Dahl (Washington State)
Agreed, CHawk. It’s a very detailed, unbiased analysis by Rob. This is what other draft analysts should do more of.
Potential DL to OL convert Joel Heath just misses the 31-9-27 desired marks.(33″-9’5″-26) 6’5.3″ 293 lb 34.5″ arms. With this cool way of analyzing OL prospects, Heath has more appeal as another Cable project.
I’ll add Heath to the piece — totally forgot to include him.
Agree 100%
It seems that we are getting very focused on the perfect OL candidate for this team. I hope we leave the draft with one of those guys.
Re: “Considering the way college offensive lines are used these days — Tom Cable and other coaches have complained that they are having to virtually train rookies from scratch with only a few exceptions” – The problem is further compounded by having to train them from scratch under CBA rules. Limited practice hours and hardly any full contact work in full gear means you can’t get those guys ready to start on September. Those guys will need a red shirt year to be ready to man an NFL ZBS OL.
It means drafting more candidates, stashing them on you PS and hoping that by the end of the year that class will produce a starter or two. It also means that you can’t be sure of the value of what you pick today so the majority of those will come in late rounds and UDFAs unless its that rare talent that falls under “with only a few exceptions”.
It also means that the greatest OL weapon is not the players but having a coach that can train them properly from scratch.
Eran, plz don’t stop commenting. I enjoy your point of view, and it’s obvious how much research you put into a lot of your posts. As long as they are healthy debates, you bring unique arguments to the best site anybody can find.
Thank you very much Darth.
You’re right Eran, this is the current plan. I really want to emphasize that spending time learning in year one. People are quick to discount Sokoli, Poole and Glowinski, but the plan from day one was for them to sit the first year. They are following the blue print. They’ve spent the past year with Hawks coaching, absorbing the playbook and techniques, working with the team nutritionists. Now, going into year two, we’ll see if they’ve improved. While I expect the Seahawks to draft 3 more guys this year, I’m actually more excited to see how the second year guys have grown.
No one talked about Garry Gilliam challenging for a starting job last year, but he worked hard in the offseason, and moved ahead of Alvin Bailey on the depth chart. Looks like he’s working just as hard this offseason to accept the challenge of moving to the blindside.
Rob, I saw a previous commenter request this a week or so, and I’d like to second it:
I’d be really interested in seeing a list of potential draftees ordered by Seahawky-ness. That is, which players check the most boxes that are essential for 1) being on the Seahawks team and 2) having the right attributes for their respective position. This, of course, is different from most draft lists, which are almost always ranked by the order in which the players will be drafted.
For example, off the top of my head, I’m thinking:
1. C.McGovern
2. J.Bullard
3. S.Coleman
4. K.Fackerell
…etc
Essentially, I guess, the list would be a list of which players are most likely to become Seahawks. Any chance of something like that (or a related article) as we get closer to draft day?
As always, thank you for the interesting content.
Possibly — I haven’t studied each position as closely as CB, DL or OL. There’s also quite a strong variety of WR’s they seem to like (suddenness, smaller, speed plus guys who are big, explosive and high point).
I will do a list of players soon I think could very well be drafted by the Hawks at the various positions of need. That would include early and late round targets.
Awesome! Looking forward to it.
That would be awesome!
There has been more than a couple of mentions re: TE and FB. Any good options for a guy who could do both? This could benefit both roster space and hurry-up flexibility, no?
Dan Vitale is my Favorite, but you could also go with a Glenn Gronkowski
Does anybody know the numbers for Clemons’ deal?
They have not said yet, I’m sure it’s not much and I like it. He can still rush the passer as a situational guy. Take some of Irvin DE snaps we are losing.
George Fant
Western KY
TE/OT
6-5 296
4.8 forty
37 inch vert
9-11 broad
22 bench
Former basketball player with impressive athleticism. 68.9 explosive rating. Hard to find arm length measurements for pro days, but Fant looks like he has 33+” arms. Interesting target to mold.
Interesting…I’ll have to look into him more.
Nice #s for sure. Any tape on him?
I saw today according to Troy Pauline that we were one of several teams bringing George Fant from Western Kentucky in for a workout.
3.324599982390478 TEF
Darkhorse late round project:
George Fant (Western Kentucky) 6’4″ 296
VJ: 37 BJ: 9-11 BP: 22
Like Graham an ex Basketball player. Raw. Good athlete. Kind of a Sokoli type prospect.
I’ll watch some film of him if I can.
Rob what if the hawks just take o lineman in the second half of draft like how that have drafted corners. Take physical specimens and developers there own. That would open up early picks for d lineman.
Bullard rd1. Kafusi rd2. McGovern 3rd Ervin 3rd Feeney 4rd
Then look for o line and secondary depth round 5 6
The problem with that strategy is:
— What if the guys you like are off the board and you miss out? Are you really prepared to fail to address the O-line, given it’s current state? What if you wait on McGovern in round three and then he leaves the board just before you pick and Haeg, Dahl are also gone?
— The players identified in this piece are all projected to go between rounds 1-4 realistically. That wasn’t my intention with this data — it’s just how it came out. There might not be any day three guys they like.
I think the draft is set up to go OL and DEF with your first two picks. You address both needs and build from there — without any fear of missing out.
Rob I am with you, I just wonder if there is a playmaker or some other twist with the first couple picks. 20 tds by Corey Coleman screams Hawks, Derick Henry physical freak is unique, josh doctson testing is great with Rankins and Bullard but great depth at the dt position seems you could get value later. The Hawks always have a surprise up there sleeve.
Where does Shon Coleman fit into the puzzle, is he available red 2 ar 56. Or if you move down to 35ish?
Two things on Coleman:
— He’s too good to last until #56. So if he does, it’ll be due to a medical concern. If he falls that far based on a medical issue, he’s unlikely to be drafted by Seattle anyway.
— He’s yet to do any testing due to a MCL injury so it’s hard to work out how he figures into an athletic profile.
The Seahawks haven’t surprised us positionally though. That’s the key here.
People think the Seahawks are major shockers in the draft because of the Carpenter and Irvin picks. In reality, they were both obvious. We just didn’t have the background on their front office that early into the regime. Carroll said their priority in 2011 was to upgrade the run game — Carp was without doubt IMO the best run blocker in college in 2010. In 2012 speed in the front seven was the priority. Bruce is the first pick — a sensational athlete with grit and production. We now know how much they value that.
We suggested Christine Michael as an option in R2 in 2013, receiver and OT early in 2014, we spent weeks talking about adding a big time TE before they traded for Graham and then discussed Frank Clark and return WR’s a ton (I thought they might go Ty Montgomery over Lockett — but I’m glad they did it the other way).
So they haven’t been that shocking. The re-signing of Kearse virtually eliminates WR early. They will likely take one in the rounds 4-6 range. I think it will be Devon Cajuste.
Derrick Henry will be seen as a luxury.
They will almost certainly go OL or DL early.
We also discussed Sokoli (that was easy), Glowinski too.
It’s funny. Last year in my mock I had Frank Clark and Ty Montgomery next myself. But like ya said, thank goodness they went with Lockett.
Who woulda thought he was gonna slip into round 3?
Remember how many people were upset over what they gave up to get Lockett?
Rob and this is why your blog is the best spot for accurate Seahawks analysis. You have analyzed there trends and physical requirements better than anyone. Thanks for all your hard work. Looking forward to the end of April!
The strategy as stated is so obviously logical that the Seahawks couldn’t possibly do anything other than take a fullback, a backup QB, and a punter in the first three rounds.
Mock!
1. Jonathon Bullard, DE, Florida
The seahawks are looking for another Michael Bennet type lineman who can play end and tackle. Bullard is a high character impact lineman.
2. Kyler Fackrell, LB, Utah State
Not dissimilar to KJ Wright, however Fackrell would come in and compete for SAM with the seahawks. Fackrell has upside as a pass rusher and an identical athletic profile to former seahawk draftee Obum Gwacham. Bruce Irvin left in Free agency and Fackrell can come in and easily replace his role.
3. Willie Henry, DT, Michigan
Mebane, a seahawks mainstay, was signed away in free agency, leaving some unrest at the defensive tackle position. The seahawks signed Sealver Siliga from the pats, however Henry has terrific potential and is being compared to star lotuleilei. Henry is also close friends and a former teammate of seahawk’s Frank Clark.
3c. Connor Mcgovern, C, Mizzou
Mcgovern is string, high character and can play anywhere on the line.
4. Tyler Ervin, RB, San Jose State
Percy Harvin without the character flags, injury history and a better value.
5. Joe Dahl, G, Washington State
Local prospect who can easily compete at all interior line positions to start.
6. Joel Heath, Convert to Oline, Michigan State
Heath switched from end to tackle and michigan, and seems a likely candidate for the seahawks to convert to offensive line.
7. Lene Maiva, Ot/G, Arizona
Tough and strong interior oline competition.
7c. Will Park, DB, Arizona
Adds to the defensive back depth in camp.
53 taking this draft into account:
QB:
Russell Wilson
Tarvaris Jackson
RB:
Thomas Rawls
Christine Michael
Tyler Ervin
FB: Brandon Cottom
WR:
Doug Baldwin
Jermaine Kearse
Tyler Lockett
Paul Richardson
Kevin Smith
Kasen Williams
TE:
Jimmy Graham
Luke Willson
Chase Coffman
OL:
Gary Gilliam
Bradley Sowell (LS)
Justin Britt
Terry Poole
Connor Mcgovern
Patrick Lewis
Kristjan Sokoli
Mark Glowinski
J’Marcus Webb
Joe Dahl
Joel Heath (could swing between o and d)
DE:
Michael Bennet
Cliff Avril
Jonathan Bullard
Frank Clark
Cassius Marsh (SAM?)
DT:
Ahtyba Rubin
Willie Henry
Sealver Siliga
Jordan Hill
LB:
Bobby Wagner
KJ Wright
Kyler Fackrell
Kevin Pierre Louis
Mike Morgan
Brock Coyle
CB:
Richard Sherman
Tharold Simon
Jeremy Lane
Mo Seisey
Ty Smith
Marcus Burley
S:
Earl Thomas
Kam Chancellor
Deshawn Shead
Kelcie Mccray
ST:
Steven Huaschka
Jon Ryan
The oline in this scenario may not be ideal…
Yet Bullard, Henry and Fackrell may all become cornerstones on the defense moving forwards.
I don’t think they can take the risk waiting until the fourth pick in the draft to address the O-line. If none of the guys they wanted were there in the extreme late third round (comp picks) they’d be kicking themselves. And it’d be an unnecessary risk really for the sake of adding three defensive players like this.
They could draft no offensive linemen the entire draft and get away with it.
The starting lineup of:
Gilliam-Webb-Lewis-Glowinski-Britt
Is not great… But it could work.
Sowell-Poole-Nowak-Sokoli-??????
Backup line definetly a concern…
The Seahawks will only start that offensive line next year if they beat out at least a couple of rookies.
The Seahawks are going to address OL in this draft as a priority. It’ll be at least one early pick, possibly (probably) two.
There’s no reason to avoid it. An offensive lineman and a defensive player with the first two picks in either order. Both needs addressed.
Haven’t we seen Wilson run around enough? Granted, some of that is on him, he has to continue to develop his pocket passing.
Isn’t running what Wilson does?
Why are we wanting him to be a pocket passer?
Because while throwing in the pocket he was the best quarterback in the NFL in the second half of the 2015 season?
Wilson’s pocket prescence is set up by his ability to run. Without that threat, he’s not as effective.
Suffice it to say, as a pocket passer Russell Wilson is unconventional.
What are you arguing here? That we should have a crappy OL so that Russ will run around more because that’s what he’s good at? C’mon.
Russ’ ability to run has only been a hindrance towards his development as a pocket passer, and I don’t believe for a second that his ability to run makes him more effective in the pocket.
I agree H M Abdou.
I’d rather see Wilson improvising naturally, not because he has to.
I fully agree with that, as well.
Necessity is the mother of invention. The only way a QB “improvises” on a pass play is if his reads tell him nobody is open or he’s about to get clobbered before his reads are done. Not sure how “natural improvising” fits that reality.
Russell will be Russ-ellin’ next year, no matter the rookie(s) we draft, because the line we have now is not good, and even if good rookies bump some of them to the bench they will still be rookies.
The Seahawks encourage natural improv.
Carroll is on the record saying he wants to be the best scrambling team in the league. He’s not likely to plan for ‘necessary’ improvisation because that basically means planning to allow the pass rush to succeed against your own team. So encouraging Wilson to extend plays to create dynamic opportunities will be something they’ve encouraged — even if it wasn’t always absolutely necessary.
I think you’re right on the money, Rob. Not only about the risk of losing out on the guy you want, but also on who the Guy is.
Mcgovern’s explosiveness score alone would be enough to draw the Seahawks. The other measureables you refer to and his tape cinch it for me. He’s the O-Line guy they won’t want to leave the Draft without. The second round pick would seem an eerie echo of Britt though….
The way the Draft falls would be the decider for which pick it’d take(2nd round or early 3rd), but we all remember Bitonio.
Nic, PC mentioned the other day that his 3 starting corners are Sherm, Shead, and Lane.
Can someone beat out Shead? Probably. But, he’s the frontrunner and has a leg up on the competition,
Dahl won’t make it out of the 3rd round. I am 100% sure he is ratted a lot higher on 32 NFL teams draft board than any mock out there. I also think Clark could easily make it to 56.
OL:
Bullard seems like a nice pick but I would prefer going with Jason Spriggs. He’s just the type of athlete Tom Cable loves. He’s faced against top competition and has held his own. It’s hard to pass on him if he’s still available at #26. Joe Haeg, Joe Dahl, and Connor McGovern are also nice picks in Round 3.
OLB:
I love Kyler Fackrell at Round 2. He could start or compete at SAM. If he starts, then Cassius Marsh could go back being a rotational pass rusher. This would be ideal since there’s no good pass rushers in this draft. Of course, Travis Freeney could also be a pick later in the rounds, but not forcing it. Backup of KJ Wright?
DT:
Willie Henry at Round 3? Aside from Bullard, I don’t see the Seahawks picking a DT in the first 4 rounds. If he’s still available, we can pick him in Round 5. If not, Javon Hargrave is also good. Lawrence-Stample?
WR:
I see the Seahawks picking at least 1 WR this draft. Keyarris Garrett? Tajae Sharpe? Aaron Burbridge? Leonte Carroo in Round 3 doesn’t sound bad.
DB:
There are some cornerbacks that the Seahawks could aim for. James Bradberry at the end of Round 4 doesn’t sound too bad. Deondre Hall? Daryl Worley? Maurice Canady? I see Kevon Seymour as someone the Seahawks could try out at Safety to be the backup of Earl Thomas.
RB:
Tyler Ervin is indeed electric, but I don’t see the Seahawks forcing themselves to get him. If ever they were to pick a RB, it would be Rounds 6-7. Smallwood? Peyton Barber?
Tom’s Baby:
Don’t forget to put Connor Wujciak somewhere in round 6-7 as Tom Cable’s experiment. Also, Lawrence Thomas could also be another option if Wujciak is already taken. He’s not as freaky of an athlete as Wujciak, but he’s not too dissimilar.
TE:
Does anyone know what kind of TE the Seahawks even draft? Do they really only go for the speedy possession guys like Luke Wilson? If so, doesn’t it contradict the philosophy of them helping out in the run, which is what are team is about?
Think at this point I would rather see Seattle go for it and take some chances.
RD.1-Nkemdiche
RD.2-Freeney perhaps or OL
RD.3-OL
RD.3-OL
Seattle really has missed someone that can push the pocket as a pass rusher. They need that inside force to get back to being a suffocating defense again. If Pete cannot motivate Nkemdiche then no one can.
Might be a bit early for Freeney but I could see him being a Sam perhaps with the ability to rush the passer or blitz off the edge if need be. But if Seattle doesn’t think SAM is a priority then by all means get an OL in RD 2.
In Round 3 it would be awesome if they could away with perhaps Dahl and McGovern to give some major competition on interior of the offensive line.
The signing of Chris Clemons gives the Hawks flexibility in the draft. They will not be “forced” to take a pass rusher. Although if they did I would be happy.
Motivation isn’t the issue for Nkemdiche.
It’s the drugs, violence and bad influence family members.
I was as much a proponent of taking Nkemdiche, but Rob (thankfully) pointed out how risky and foolish that would be.
And his problems aren’t just limited to off the field; ON the field he’s very inconsistent in terms of motor/effort. I must say, when that motor is revving, he’s arguably the most dominant player in the whole draft.
Nkemdiche just isn’t worth the risk and headache.
And all these things will most likely get worse soon as he’s making $$
I still feel like round 2 is too high to take Feeney. Round 3 is much better value, considering his injury history and the fact he just had surgery and didn’t participate in the pro-day. If he’s gone before our two 3rds role around, so be it…there are other needs to be filled
Feeney in the 4th or 5th. I’m thinking 5th.
I take the flyer on Jaylon Smith before Nkemdiche or Freeney.
I didnt realize Clemons was a seahawk! Wow!
I like that move.
Gives them flexibility in a pretty weak pass rushing class when it comes to EDGE prospects.
Good move that alleviates some of the urgency from pass rush. Welcome back, Clem.
I really love listening to Pat Kirwan. He’s such a knowledgable guy and he has a way of communicating that info to people who aren’t experts that I really admire. Having said that, I wonder if something isn’t missing from that quote, as the explosion measure makes no sense. There’s a massive difference between a 9′ and 10′ broad jump, yet that’s only a point? It would make more sense if it were 1 per inch above 9 or something of that nature.
Still, cool writeup, as always.
It’s a major flaw in his formula unfortunately.
THAT’s the problem?!? That whole statement pretty much makes no sense. Rob, I LOVE your blog and the chance to read, learn and talk Seahawks and football, so please don’t take this as an attack on your work trying to explain what the Seahawks are doing. If that’s what we are doing, trying to figure out WHAT they are doing, no problem.
As to WHY they are doing it, big problem. As to whether it has any validity, big problem. As to whether it works, big problem.
Short version, once you get started, “explosiveness” has no bearing on point of contact. Pretty much mass x velocity at that point. Sometimes pure strength.
Short version, we have no idea if broad jump or some combination of Kirwan’s measures are a good proxy for the kind of thing we think we are trying to measure.
Short version, there is nothing new under the sun in the NFL or college about better athletes on defense. That has always been the case, for good reasons. In fact, if what you are positing is true about the method, the basis for its use would not be present because college teams would be moving better athletes to OL in the first place (if that’s the way to combat quick DL). What may be new is the ZBS and finding athletes who can move to the second level.
Short version, BJ (or VJ or 40 or 10y or who knows) might work well for tackles, but seems to have much less validity as you move inside. Of 24 G/C who got any all pro votes in 2014/2015, 19 did not BJ 9-0, and three of the five who did were right at 9-0. Of Centers, 10 of 11 did not BJ 9-0, and most of the best weren’t even close.
I made my opinions known in the last thread on this topic. I’m still not buying it. It’s like saying if someone types 90 WPM they can take over Rob’s job on SDB. I don’t care how many “boxes” a guy checks off athletically. He can check more boxes than a gynecologist but, ultimately, he has to be able to block and that is a long-learned talent. None of the guys on that list are Pro Bowlers/All-Americans and until someone can empirically prove that these traits beat technique and savvy I’ll remain skeptical.
So, for example, a guy like Whitehair would interest you? Some have compared him to Zack Martin and Marshal Yanda. I think Whitehair’s appeal is that he’s a known commodity. You know what he’ll give you. But I think the Hawks are looking for guys far more athletic and with much more upside.
What if the contest is to write words per minute though and the other guy is doing 150 WPM?
That’s the point of the piece really. It’s not about explosive athleticism = great offensive lineman. It’s more about the defensive linemen entering the league are vastly, vastly superior athletes to the O-liners. So if you want any chance of realistically contending, you better not be putting average athletes up against them.
I’ll note it again — 15 D-liners at the combine beat Jason Spriggs’ leading O-line score in the broad jump. That is just this years example.
Technique in college is completely different to technique in the NFL. Nearly every team with only a handful of exceptions runs an extreme spread offense these days in CFB. Even the teams that traditionally run a more pro-style offense are moving to spread concepts (see: Alabama, Ohio State). What wins in college won’t necessarily work in the pro’s. Look at Le’Raven Clark’s technique for example. They just aren’t getting coached. And pro D-liners are better than college D-liners.
It might seem like it’s as simple as a college guard playing guard in the NFL and that’ll be fine. If that guard is then being asked to block guys who are three times as explosive as they are — good luck.
FWIW — Luke Joeckel was the best technique O-liner we’ve seen in a long time. He played in a college spread. He’s struggling.
The Seahawks are without doubt IMO the smartest, most ahead of the curve front office in the league. There’s a reason why they’re doing what they’re doing.
Joeckel’s JJP (jump-jump-press) isn’t far from Britt’s
Luke Joeckel (64.3)
VJ 28.5 BJ 8-10 BP 27
Justin Britt (64.8)
VJ 29.5 BJ 9-3 BP 26
Britt did achieve the gold standard +9″ in the broad though.
True, and we know BJ >>> BP so the extra 5″ for Britt means more than the extra BP rep for Joeckel.
But it does speak to your point about a requisite level of athleticism to compete in the pros. Joeckel hasn’t been as dreadful as Britt in terms of game play, but when you factor in the relative cost in draft capital, suddenly it all falls apart.
Rob, thanks for the forum to have these great little sport debates. Now let me disagree with you 🙂
“If it was not art, the strong would always win.” – Hanko Dobringer
Defensive players have been better athletes for decades, probably since the league’s inception, so suggesting that you need better athletes on the OL in order to compensate is an oversimplification. I mentioned yesterday that in martial arts it isn’t the strongest and fastest that win, but those with the best technique, that can exploit their opponents mistakes. This is also true in the NFL. No offensive lineman is going to block Sheldon Rankins or Aaron Donald 1vs1. They will likely double team that sort of player, which leads to the advantages the offensive line has over the defensive line:
OL advantages vs DL
1) Snap count
2) Knowledge of the playcall / where to go
3) Combination blocking / double teaming
4) Numbers – Generally 5 vs 4
5) Playing area conflated = Fresher than DL as game progresses.
So, these advantages when properly exploited, should and do mitigate the better athletes on the other side of the ball. Where things go awry for the OL is when guys have poor foot placement and lose balance, have poor/slow setups getting into their stance, lack functional strength to anchor their base. have poor hand placement, failure (due to lack of experience) to recognize blitzes and stunts, are stiff and can’t bend, etc. None of those weaknesses are necessarily due to lack of elite broad jump and many with great broad jumps and athleticism possess those weaknesses and never overcome them. Again, it takes a long time to learn to be a great technician on the OL and athleticism is only one part and nowhere near the vital part.
Your example of Luke Joeckel is cherry picking. How many Tarzans ended up playing like Janes? The number of workout warriors that became washout wannabes is legion. Experience, Intelligence, Balance, Footwork, Instincts, Strength, are all more important than BJ and it is perilous to undervalue those elements, as I believe the Seahawks FO has done for a while which has led to Defcon 1 on our OL. We need to draft proven blockers.
I’ll bet my eye teeth that guys like Whitehair and Kelly have longer, more productive careers than the BJ Battalion.
Yours is an uncommon opinion around here, friend. When you just described Germain Ifedi to a T, and he remains the consensus number 1 option for most is telling. I have banged the drum for the most important aspect of being a good blocker is actually being able to block people falls on deaf ears. Ifedi to me DOES indeed play like Jane and is going to get ragdolled in the League. Guys who are 6’6″ and 324 lbs should be annihilating people, but so many of those guys are just soft. At least with Spriggs, he has athelticism and technique, even if his tape is inconsistent. Coleman is a mauler but he has low hips and pad level with a great initial punch. He isn’t a grabbing, waist bending, lunger. I totally agree with your idea about what is more valuable in the league
I think the problem is you’re seeing the numbers as the be all end all. They’re a baseline (if not guideline), a feel, to figure out if a player can athletically cut in in the NFL. After that there’s the interviews, the grit, the game tape, the love for the game. It all factors in.
Some guys are athletes and can play the position why would we ignore that?
I think the problem he’s seeing is that it doesn’t seem to work. The numbers don’t seem to provide a baseline in any meaningful way, except perhaps in separating pro bowl level left tackles from other offensive linemen.
And in so doing it wipes out or discounts large numbers of great OL.
As I wrote earlier, of the 11 centers who got all-pro votes in the last two years, TEN did not BJ 9′ or better (most weren’t even close). Of the 13 guards who got all-pro votes in the last two years, NINE did not BJ 9′ or better (and three of the guys who did were just at 9-0). These aren’t guys who are just getting by, these are the guys who are *great*. So if this is some baseline for mere competence it would seem to be doing a bad job.
I think we need to separate Centers from this O line debate. I am going to call this the Nowak rule.
Drew Nowak beat out Lewis last summer because he was bigger/stronger/faster. Those are things that show up in spring camp. He probably has a great Broad jump #. But he didn’t last because the center’s job is a lot more difficult than guard.
Mentally, you need to properly read defenses and call line adjustments. Physically, you need to snap the ball AND then (against Aaron Donald no less) you need to quickly get into a defensive stance. The ability to communicate and lead effectively under adverse conditions is difficult, and is an actual skill set. Having a center who has several hundred repetitions under his belt, being comfortable in that role, I believe outweighs some these physical standards.
Again, I’m all for the Seahawks trying to be innovative, and get Bigger/Stronger/Faster at the other four OL positions. And they obviously thought that way about center last summer, when Drew Nowak was named the starter. But I believe that experiment taught them a lesson.
So, I believe a true college center is still very much on the board for the Hawks next month. So, those of you crushing on Kelly or Martin, or Boehm, there is still hope.
Not sure it’s ever been said that the numbers agree the be all end all… I think that when we’re reading these outstanding articles, were all are able to keep in mind that those other thing you mentioned, Ali factor in as well.
I see no need for having Rob mention those caveats every time he writes something which is primarily numbers focused.
I guess I am saying, use your head, read the article and then factor in those things you mentioned, on your own if you like.
Certainly were it a monkey typing a seahawks article that advantage would be meaningless, but if you had that advantage over Rob certainly his experience wouldn’t help him in a pure race to publishing (the QB)
Saxon, you missed the point surrounding the typing analogy.
The full picture would be something like – Rob is too busy to keep producing daily blogs + comments etc.
In the UK, he can’t find enough candidates with enough knowledge of American football and the Seahawks.
He needs to make a call – Do i (1) pick a very articulate and internet savvy guy with great typing and editing skills, mentor him closely for a year and teach him everything there is to know so he can take over next year or do i (2) pick the guy that has some rudimentary knowledge of american football and hope the rest of his skills will be up to par?
The Seahawks went for option one….
That is a really good analogy Eran!
I think the argument is really a very simple one — you can “teach” technique, you can’t “teach” athleticism. The Seahawks and more specifically, Tom Cable, are hoping to find that diamond in the rough — a really athletic guy (measuring athleticism via a metric like the broad jump), who is available when they pick, who they can teach to be a Pro Bowl O Lineman.
IMHO, a more successful approach is to sign a free agent guy who has a proven record of success. The biggest problem with this approach is that the Seahawks have only so much $$ to spend and it would be far better financially to get someone who you can develop in the draft.
Don’t know his arm length, but Florida Atlantic DT Brandin Bryant is interesting. CHAWK mentione yesterday Seattle scouts were in attendance.
6’2 1/2″, 290 lbs.
And all these #s would’ve been number 1 amongst DTs at the combine.
38 reps on the BP
4.81 40
4.24 SS
7.16 3 cone
Wow that’s an interesting test. Is there any tape anywhere?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8M5LKx5-Kp4
There ya go my man.
Here’s regional combine tape and a bogus song! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XRCk0PjH4BY&app=desktop#t=92.949477
This kid looks impressive on your highlights link. The way he wins with a combination of sudden explosion, athleticism, strength, excellent leverage, violent hands use and varied technique will translate well to the NFL in my opinion, even if his arms are short. I love the rips, swims and arm overs. His spin move was so explosive, it looked more like a teleport. On a few plays, he attacked the tackle who was blocking someone else. He used the occupied tackle to push off and pinball his way past the guard trying to block him. Plays well through trash and always knows where the ball is. Love this prospect!
I was watching his highlight reel and I swear he snapped a guards arm doing a spin move! Savage!
I am admittedly a novice in watching prospects game film but this kids tape is far more impressive than most others.
Talk about small school diving. The 40 alone is very impressive.
This kid is a f**kn monster!
Wow!
Only issue is length — he has 31 1/4 inch arms.
Too bad. That’s some highly impressive tape.
Someones gonna get a real sleeper in him.
Bring him in as a UDFA and try him at fullback.
At what point in the draft though is length no longer an issue? All late round guys are going to have some flaws, if not major ones.
I saw his name and checked him out before the results came in. His arms are short – 31 1/4″ with 10 5/8″ hands. But those are some eye-popping numbers.
Shoulda refreshed before answering…
Just watched that tape twice. WOOWW….
Even for a highlight tape that kid is unbelievable. I do not remember the last time i saw such a polished and explosive spin move on a guy this size. His ball awareness, chase and pursuit are incredible. His short arms do not seem to take anything off his shading technique. He does show a stutter step and stands to high at times but that’s really nitpicking.
Just wonder about level of competition…
C-USA.
I don’t think Seattle cares where the talent comes from. Not that they’re taking this guy or he’s even on their radar.
Speaking of which, doesn’t it seem like Seattle is keeping things closer to the vest this year in terms of VMAC visitors, private workouts, etc.?
Loose lips sink ships.
Ha yeah it does seem that way.
My son went to FAU. The stadium they built a few years back is absolutely gorgeous. That’s Boca Raton for you.
If you add the number of feet with the number of inches over nine feet in the standing broad jump, meaning 9’7″= 16, then
MG=76.7
KS, 90.0
JB,67.8
GS,75.2
RS,70.2
TP,70.5
JRS, 71.5
Which makes Britt the only exception to the rule. I suspect they were swayed by Britt’s tape vs. J. Clowney, and by the fact that he was such a bar fighter on every snap. And I think that is the other seahawky element their looking for–look at Glowinski’s college highlights and it is a little war on every snap. I know you love Ifedi for his extraordinary athleticism, but he lacks that one seahawky element, and I doubt they will ever pick him. For that one quality, Whitehair would have been a much better choice, except he only jumped 9’2″ with 16 bench press reps, so he would have had to have made a vertical leap of 43 inches to reach he 70 pt. threshold. He excused hiself from that particular event.
Only problem here is what do you do if a guy jumps a sub 9-foot broad? If you jump an 8-10 for example it’d score higher than a 9-7.
I don’t think there’s any reason to overthink the Britt pick. He had a very good broad jump and that appears to be what they zone in on. The broad jump qualified him, the wrestling background and attitude likely appealed to Cable. He was probably one of the last remaining tackles on a small list they were willing to draft so they took him in R2 because they didn’t pick again until round four.
No, I bet they only score the inches over 9. i think an 8’10” would only score an eight.
So how do you differentiate between a prospect who jumps an 8-3 vs an 8-10?
you don’t. I think they are only interested in differentiating between shades of excellene. If a player got an 8’3″, he would already be out of the running.
All I wanted to do is demonstrate how you could give appropriate weight to the sbj in relation to the vertical jump and bench press and at the same time make sense of the proported seventy point threshold for all of the Seahawks OL picks. Since force equals mass time acceleration, you’d think they would factor weight into their equation as well, but maybe the bench press score is a way of cheating weight into their considerations.
No problem, interesting idea
Set the BJ bar at 8-0. 8-5 would be 5, 9-4 would be 16….
As a maths teacher, it seems like an extremely poor mathematical model to just add VJ+BJ+bench. The difference between an 8′ BJer and a 10′ BJer can be counteracted by just 2 more reps on the bench. It seems like it would make a much better model to add the z-scores from each of the three drills.
[I know Rob knows, but for those that don’t know: a z-score tells how far from average (i.e. how many standard deviations) a result is. Essentially, it can tell how rare or normal a result is. Calculus tells us that a z-score of 0.0 means that a result is better than 50% of others; z=-1.0 is better than only 16% of other players, while z=+1.0 is better than 84% of results. A z-score of 2.0 is better than 97.5% of other players.]
If BJ is more important, then instead of just adding the z-scores together, multiply BJ by some factor. Maybe I’ll have my students see if they can make a better model. I don’t know, though, what data we could use to validate the effectiveness of that–or any model. Anybody got any ideas?
Check out Zach Whitman’s 3sigmaathlete.com
Very good resource using Sparq
I agree – it’s a poor metric. Luckily it appears Cable and the Seahawks FO will look past poor bench numbers (example: Gary Gilliam).
That would be interesting.
Given the Seahawks have taken [set of x] guys with these BJ, VJ, and BP (heck maybe add arm length, but not as a z-score variable but as a Dummy Variable, 33+ 1, otherwise 0, or throw in a 40 time or hand size or some variables that may just be noise)
Given the Seahawks have no interest in [set of y] guys with these BJ, VJ, and BP.
If there is a set of Z guys (Coleman, Ifedi, Etc.) Who are they likely to take.
And of course there’s not enough data points to get a right answer, but I’m sure with 10 different answers you’ll circle around something close to what JS and Tom Cable like. (then again, I’ve never thought of Cable as a math guy, so maybe his formula is simply 3 cutoff points, with -3 inches on broad jump having to be made up by 3 bench press reps).
McGovern. Every way you slice it with him…. via advanced stats/SPARQ, explosiveness, overall body type and game play tape… he clicks the box for Seattle to grab in the 2nd round. Pretty much circle this guys name around the 2nd round pick range… if he is there, they will grab him.
I wonder if any similar metrics have been looked at for other NFL teams OL drafting tendencies.. and could it predict future picks (taking some of the draft guess work out of the equation). A predict the probable pick kind of deal. Makes you wonder if Seattle does this as well, trying to get a read on if they need to move up or down in a round for a specific player (see the trade to get Tyler Lockett as an example).
Jason Spriggs (Indiana)
Germain Ifedi (Texas A&M)
Connor McGovern (Missouri)
Joe Dahl (Washington State)
Joe Haeg (North Dakota State)
Possibly add Coleman and Decker to this list.
Rob, you are probably very close to it.
I think more D-line converts are going to be taken as well.
I fully expect more than a few seemingly puzzling picks.
Joel Heath has almost the ideal physical profile to be their latest D-line convert.
Decker tested poorly based on the broad and his overall profile. I doubt he’s on their radar to be honest.
Just tweaking my mock Seahawks draft slightly.
Round 1 (1) GERMAIN IFEDI, OT/OG
Round 2 (1) CONNER McGOVERN, OG
Round 3 (2) BRONSON KAUFUSI, DE / C.J. PROCISE, RB
Round 4 (1) TRAVIS FEENEY, LB
Round 5 (1) DEVON CAJUSTE, WR
Round 6 (1) JAMES BRADBERRY, CB
Round 7 (2) ANTHONY ZETTEL, DE / STEPHANE NEMBOT, OT
The largest “fall” was Cajuste. I think he will go late in round 4, but if he is there in round 5, Seattle has to strike. Bradberry is also in the round 5 or 6 range, but we can only hope right. Largest reach is McGovern in late 2nd round, but the evidence keeps pointing at him day after day after day 🙂
That is a nice group of players!
I’m torn between Cajuste and Lawler and they figure to go in the same range. Different players with different strengths but both are effective and have skills you’d love to pair with RW.
Agree 100% Eric. I am in the same boat with those two guys and think if we go go WR it will be one of them. I would be happy with either as basically a 5-6th receiver yr#1 who could develop into a solid player.
An nfl west scout ‘surprised us to start the year…. a lot of the time looks completely lost out there in protection’
One year of rb experience. Started college career at safety moved to wideout then to hb last year. Real mystery to me.
The “Safe” thing to do would be to take Ifedi and McGovern with their first two picks.
I like it a lot, but how about just a slight modification 😉
Round 1 (1) GERMAIN IFEDI, OT/OG
Round 2 (1) CONNER McGOVERN, OG
Round 3 (2) BRONSON KAUFUSI, DE / TYLER ERVIN, RB
Round 4 (1) RASHARD ROBINSON, CB
Round 5 (1) TRAVIS FEENEY, LB
Round 6 (1) MIKE THOMAS, WR
Round 7 (2) ANTHONY ZETTEL, DE / STEPHANE NEMBOT, OT
Steve Hutchinson (greatest Seahawk guard in history): BP:31, VJ 33.5, BJ 10’6″
Check out THAT broad jump!!!!
Joe Thomas met this criteria, Tyron Smith just to name a couple.
Hutch actually only had an 8-10 broad but he did have a 33.5 inch vert (!!!) and 31 reps on the bench.
Joe Thomas, Andrew Whitworth, Joe Staley, Tyron Smith, Trent Williams, Terron Armstead, Jason Peters, Ryan Clady, Taylor Lewan, Lane Johnson. They all had a +9″ broad jump.
That was the first thing I did after reading your article yesterday – I cross checked the top 10-12 OTs in the League (by general consensus) and the only one who had a sub 9 was Castonzo.
Yep – might as well go for a difference maker in round 1 & 2 and that’s what PETE and JS do- hence the emphasis on metrics. I would love Ifedi and McGovern in rd 1 & 2
Just my guess but, I think that whether we take Ifredi or not in round one, depends more on whether or not Bullard has been taken. Again, it’s just my guess but if there’s one player who projects to be taken around where the Seahawks pick, who I would think sits at the top of the Seahawks draft board, it’s gotta be Bullard. Bullard is a guy who checks every box in terms of size, athletically, and also fills a need.
I think if Bullard is still there at #26, he’s going to be at the top of Seahawks board, and they take him. If not, (ignoring the idea that they would try to trade down…John always tries to trade down), they either take Ifredi, or surprise us all and go with someone we’re not looking at much, like say, Keanu Neal, who checks every box, and certainly looks Seahawky but would obviously be a surprise pick to most of us.
Then they could just go ahead and take McGovern in round two (if I am right and he’s that high on their board, even though many if not most mocks have him taken in the third-fourth round), while still holding two picks in the third with which they could target guys like Dahl or Haeg etc…. As Schneider said, the shelves for offensive linemen this year aren’t that steep. Which practically speaking means that, here are going to be some guys available we could take as late as round four, who could become day one starters.
BTW I agree with you guys who have mentioned just how much McGovern looks like a fit here, I would bet the Seahawks have him very high on their board, probably much higher than most, if not all other teams do. He certainly looks the part in virtually every way.
They may feel like they can get away with not taking O-line round one, (even though I agree with Rob that it’s not ideal) because of McGovern who projects as a round two pick, and because guys like Dahl, Haeg, and others will still be available in round three where we pick twice.
Out of our first four picks, it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if they use two or even three picks on O-line.
I sort of expect they will take a LB somewhere in the first four rounds (first five picks), someone like Darren Lee, Fackrell, Deion Jones, Feeney or Kamalei Correa.
“Who projects as a round two pick” should have read round three pick in most mocks I’ve read…stupid I-phones.
Hawks are brining back Clemons. 2 questions:
1) Do you think this is a good move
2) Do you think it changes our draft strategy?
Thanks and Go Hawks!
I think it’s a cool move.
Clem carried this pass rush for a few years. Now he has a chance to support it for another Championship tilt.
For 10-15 snaps a game I think it is a great move to give them that depth they once had.
Absolutely.
After all, a situational pass rusher was more than likely all they were gonna get or could still get anyways.
Now then still add to it, but don’t have to force their hand and can bring someone along slowly if they choose to.
Clem brings more than pass rush. He brings experience, passion, leadership, mentorship, and the drive to finish something he got close to doing in 2012.
This is a savvy move any way you look at it.
I’ll take it. Also depends on the salary. Im.guessing it’s an MSB contract which would be good.
Good point about the salary Greg I assume it is team friendly but I guess we will have to wait and see. I would be shocked if it is not.
Rob do you think this rules out the idea you had that they might trade for a veteran pass rusher?
He had two years remaining on a four-year, $17.5M contract he signed in 2014. He was due a $500k roster bonus March 13 and took up $4M in cap space in each of the next 2 seasons.
He’ll probably get a slice of the cap space SEA get back from Lynch. Low base with time/performance incentives.
Personally, I don’t mind this move; it’s a shrewd, low-risk signing. However, we really don’t know for sure how much Clem has left in his tank. I’m cautiously optimistic, but I trust PC/JS’s judgement.
Plus, he brings back great memories of the 2013 championship run!
Better than Schofield
Clem also adds back a little more bad @ss attitude
I think they just replaced Irvin’s production as a pass rusher on the cheap. They might not have to worry about a hybrid pass rusher/linebacker in the draft now. They might think now that Irvin’s pressures and sacks are replaced by Clem for the nascar, now they just need an edge setting mean ass 2 down Sam. Any ideas? Like if the FO thinks they got the nickle pressures replaced now, they just have to worry about a 2 down backer. I thought this would be a great role for Upshaw(I didn’t think they would find a guy who could come in year one and replace Irvin’s run stopping and nickle contributions and figured the responsibility will now be shared by 2 heads for Irvin’s role, Irvin was a freak no sense on reaching for Frackell, just use 2 guys and not carry 2 FB’s right?) Any guys in this draft a 2 down run stopping Sam? Perry?
I just tried that Fan Speak site where they let you do a mock and this is what I came up with. If the Hawks could get these guys it would be dream scenario for me. You could interchange Haeg and Dahl for Mcgovern in the 3rd round if you like.
26: R1P26
DT CHRIS JONES
MISSISSIPPI STATE
56: R2P25
OT SHON COLEMAN
AUBURN
90: R3P27
G CONNOR MCGOVERN
MISSOURI
97: R3P34
RB TYLER ERVIN
SAN JOSE STATE
124: R4P26
DE MATT JUDON
GRAND VALLEY STATE
171: R5P32
OLB TRAVIS FEENY
WASHINGTON
215: R6P40
WR DEVON CAJUSTE
STANFORD
225: R7P4
DT DAVID ONYEMATA
MANITOBA
247: R7P26
OT TORIAN WHITE
HAMPTON
Looks good to me, I’ll have some.
2016 OL
LT Gilliam LG Webb C Mcgovern RG Glowinski RT Coleman
2016 3rd Down NASCAR package
DE Clark, Avril sub. Clem
DT Bennet, Chris Jones sub. Hill
Both look like solid groups and an upgrade immediately with big time upside.
I’m not convinced on Chris Jones to be honest, especially in a NASCAR.
He has some of the best tape I have seen this year. He absolutely destroyed Mcgovern, Boehm and the rest of the Mizzo OL in on of the games. I think he has the potential to be one of the best defensive prospects in this class.
He also has bust potential for sure because of the points you have stated about being a bit of a bone head.
I view him as a 3 down 3 tech with Rubin moving into Mebanes spot. I take it you don’t see it that way Rob?
I prefer Rankins but he will be long gone by 26.
Jones is a different type of player IMO. A bigger body, not so much an inside-out. He has great size but he tested poorly which is a concern. Against better linemen I fear he’ll be found out. He looked like a guy who got by in college. It’s been asserted by some he has a first round body but a sloppy, later round attitude. A bit coddled, a bit hyped up from the big recruiting days.
Not sure if this makes any sense but from purely a size, length, build standpoint Chris Jones is unique in this class because of the length. He just looks the part as well. He is to the DL what Ifedi is to the OL they just look the part.
Disagree there on the Ifedi comp. Ifedi had an explosive workout for his unique size — 32.5 inch vert, 9-1 broad. Jones is just big. Look how he compares in the explosive tests — Jones had a 24.5 inch vert and an 8-10 broad. Jones had a 4.62 shuttle so he moves well at the size but not an explosive player.
Ifeid is also 14lbs heavier by the way — which makes his workout all the more impressive/explosive.
I don’t know how you could watch Chris Jones’ tape and not say he’s an explosive player. He had a 1.69 10 yard split lol, he’s a freak for his size. He also improved his vertical jump to 29.5 inches at his pro day. That means he’s tested average or better for a DT in every single athletic test. At 6’6″, 310, with a 7’1″ wingspan. He’s a fantastic athletic specimen.
Explosion isn’t measured in a sprint.
He had a 24.5 inch vertical and an 8-10 in the broad at the combine. Both on the low end of this defensive draft class.
Even if he improved his vertical — it’s still behind many superior athletes in this D-line class. Sheldon Rankins had a 34.5 inch vert and a 9-10 broad. That’s explosion for you.
Jones is big and has get off. But he’s not tested explosively.
Okay I give in that he doesn’t have that same level of short area explosion as guys like Ifedi and Rankins. I just jumped in because I believe he’s a superior prospect to both of them. His burst off the snap is matched only by Bullard on tape, despite being 25 lbs heavier. If you plug in his updated vertical leap into his SLA score, it would be around the 95th percentile. His overall athletic profile (size, length, power, athleticism) is elite, extremely similar to Mo Wilkerson, and matched only by Buckner among true every-down interior defenders in this class. Buckner also happens to be the only interior DL who out-performed him according to PFF this season, and I tend to agree after watching his spectacular tape.
Who knows if his mind is right, that’s for teams like the Hawks to decide. Going off the tape and measurables, hes a top 10 player in this draft.
Rob, you commented more on what Jones on field potential would be. That he wouldn’t be able to compete against NFL competition. And that is exactly what Trevor said about Ifedi. Not that his workout wasn’t impressive. But that when he steps on the field, he will be outmatched and exposed. Much like how you said Chris Jones will be exposed. I agree wholeheartedly with Tevor about Ifedi. I think the comp is spot on. Ifedi had a great workout for a man his size, but at that size and athletecism, he should have been throwing people around like Tecmo Bowl. And he never did. He just looks the part. But he will not make it in the NFL, he looks like a prototype. But after seriously watching his tape, I see a guy who will exposed
Ifedi has the athletic and physical ability to handle the pro’s. That is indisputable with the way he tested. He needs technique work. Chris Jones presents the opposite challenge.
Jones is around the 95th percentile in SLA with his updated vertical jump test result, which doesn’t even incorporate his 7 foot 1 inch wingspan. I would say the pro’s don’t have the athletic and physical ability to handle him.
SLA likes him because of size. It doesn’t emphasise his lack of explosion in the testing and the biggest issue IMO — that he plays within himself and doesn’t appear to have that “I want to be great” mentality.
I know Rob disagreed with you but that is the first thing I thought with his description of Jones. I said ‘That is Germain Ifedi!’ You are on to something with that comp. Ifedi is soft and for someone his size, he doesn’t play remotely nasty or tough enough
Ifedi is not soft
Might be my favorite realistic draft Ive seen
Looks pretty good! I don’t know if all those guys will be available to the Hawks, but hey, stranger things have happened.
That site is pretty fun, this was my first try.
YOUR TEAM
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
YOUR PICKS
1: R1P26
DE JONATHAN BULLARD
FLORIDA
2: R2P25
OLB SU’A CRAVENS
USC
3: R3P27
C GRAHAM GLASGOW
MICHIGAN
4: R3P34
OT JOE HAEG
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
5: R4P26
DT WILLIE HENRY
MICHIGAN
6: R5P32
RB TYLER ERVIN
SAN JOSE STATE
7: R6P40
OT JOE DAHL
WASHINGTON STATE
8: R7P4
K ROBERTO AGUAYO
FLORIDA STATE
Not bad I’d say. Two stud defensive linemen, three offensive linemen, one of whom at least should win a starting job, a LB to replace Irvin, a RB with big time upside, and yes, a kicker…Haush costs us quite a lot of money.
Ha ha, I cut off my last pick which was WR Devon Cajuste.
Fantastic work this week Rob, especially on the O-Line measurables.
With the guys that “measure” up listed above, and the Clem signing, to me it just screams we must address an interior rush option (which is weak in this draft as you have noted) with the rd 1 pick. If Bullard is there you have to take him imo, and inside/out option that can be part of the 3rd down package is a must to address; especially since both Clark and Marsh appear destined to play LEO and/or SAM now . Grab Spriggs (trade up in rd 2? is that realistic?) Mcgovern, Dahl, a DL convert after that.
I think Spriggs, if he lasts into R2, will go too early for Seattle to trade up from #56.
Yeah, you’re off the chain this week, dude. This rivals “Killbox” by Hazbro as some of the most insightful revelation on Seahawks’ FO decision making and team building philosophy. Legendary Seahawk journalism!
http://www.fieldgulls.com/2013/9/17/4740942/the-red-zone-is-our-kill-box
So to take that ‘explosion number’ one step further, you would probably want to multiply the ‘explosion number’ by the player’s weight, right? I’m thinking with the ‘force equals mass times acceleration’ equation (F=ma), that explosion number is the acceleration. And the higher the F, the more likely a win in a collision.
Very interesting… Might be the next project I take on to calculate this.
I like it.
The explosion isn’t true acceleration, but it’s constant for everyone, so it still gives a decent proxy.
Great idea. Then maybe move the decimal over 2 spots to tighten the cluster and make the numbers easier to compare.
Ha, I love it! I’m a hawks fan and high school physics teacher! Throw in Work = Force x distance and you’ve got Rob’s point in this article – the force is the explosion over the distance of the broad jump! We want guys that are ready to go to “Work!”
Go Hawks!
Great call.
Hey Rob three questions.
1st could you give a little insight on LeRaven Clark? I know you’re not fond of a first round pick on him, Just wanted a little more in depth take on him.
Second what do you think the likelihood of them taking a pure safety or potentially cb/s hybrid type anywhere in the draft. It’s an underrated and athletic class.
Since Shead is playing corner primarily
I’d like to see the Hawks go La’Raven Clark route in a slight trade into 2nd then use that to trade back up for a DL like Butler or Bullard if they fall.
Otherwise BPA which might shockingly be a trade up for Derrick Henry.
They could totally view Henry as an upgrade at running back! That’s entirely possible
Clark will be there at 56. I would take McGovern over Clark @56.
Lot of buzz Clark goes top-40. Think it’s likely.
Clark’s technique is among the worst I’ve seen in CFB. His game against LSU was an abomination. Great upside, great potential — but a major project IMO.
There are a lot of very athletic safety’s so taking one in rounds 5-7 is possible.
It seems to me that if Cable can teach a DL to play OL, then he should be able to do something with Clark, in time.
When have we taken a first or second round DL and converted them to OL?
On the contrary they’ve taken polished, experienced guys early (Moffit, Okung, Carpenter, Britt) and athletic projects late (Scott, Gilliam, Sokoli, Sweezy).
If Clark was there in the sixth he would fit. Not likely though.
Question for the SBD community:
When you all do mocks on fanspeak.com/ontheclock, what big board do you use and why?
My draft though would be
1 Bullard
2 McGovern
3 Ervin
3 TJ Green FS
4 Feeny
Rees Odhiambo
BYU WR Mathews
Tell me about Green, Nate!
I really like Simmon’s measurables out of Boston College. That sub 1.5 split like Earl had.
Also Kalan Reed as a fs/cb hybrid
Better size, can play both S, Clemson, speed, needs technique but can hit and was a WR like Sherman.
I can get behind that. I’ll add him to the list
What if the explosion number is actually 150.
BJ 10 times feet + VJ + BP
for instance a BJ 9′ = 90
then you have the ideals that cable projects at 9′, 31″, 27
This score comes out to 148. If a player jumps two inches further, two inches higher or benches two more (or any combo of two greater) then he makes 150.
in this case check out the hawks picks over the years:
Mark Glowinski
VJ 31 BJ 9-5 BP 31= 157
Terry Poole
VJ 31 BJ 9-5 BP 25 = 151
Kristjan Sokoli
VJ 38 BJ 9-11 BP 31 = 169
Justin Britt
VJ 29.5 BJ 9-3 BP 26 = 148.5
Garrett Scott
VJ 33.5 BJ 9-7 BP 25 = 155.5
Ryan Seymour
VJ 29 BJ 9-2 BP 30 = 151
Jared Smith
VJ 32.5 BJ 9-7 BP 28 = 157.5
J.R. Sweezy
VJ 36 BJ 9-5 BP 21 = 152
Garry Gilliam UDFA
VJ 35 BJ 9-7 BP 19 = 151
And the rookies listed in this piece…
Jason Spriggs
VJ 35 BJ 9-7 BP 31= 163
Halapoulivaati Vaitai
VJ 29 BJ 9-5 BP 23 = 147
Brandon Shell
VJ 30.5 BJ 9-4 BP 22 = 146.5
Joe Haeg (incomplete)
VJ 30 BJ 9-3 BP DNP
Alex Redmond
VJ 28 BJ 9-3 BP 30 = 151
Joe Thuney
VJ 28.5 BJ 9-3 BP 28 = 149.5
Cody Whitehair
VJ 25.5 BJ 9-2 BP 16 = 133.5
Germain Ifedi
VJ 32.5 BJ 9-1 BP 24 = 147.5
Joe Dahl
VJ 31 BJ 9-1 BP 28 = 150
Connor McGovern
VJ 33 BJ 9-1 BP 33 = 157
Jake Brendel
VJ 28 BJ 9-0 BP 25 = 143
Joel Heath
VJ 33 BJ 9-5 BP 26 = 154
Pretty much gives some power back to the BJ testing. If you fall short in the BJ you have to make up for it with the other two tests, while the other way of getting to 70, the BJ is almost pointless and you have to get a combo of 60+ whether you reach 10 feet or 8 feet in the BJ. And yes you would probably have to go by tenths of feet rather than inches in the BJ.
Needs to accountt for arm length on the bp and weight in general, intuitively.
I think that weighted bj is getting more accurate
Could perhaps also include ten yard splits or is that taken in with the broad jump?
Any ideas for an agilty metric to tab alongside this?
perhaps some kind of a division criteria. Say a 150/4.3 =34.9 vs 150/4.7 = 31.9. perhaps the player needs to hit a 33 which is 150/4.55?
These would be the results with that type of criteria.
Jason Spriggs
VJ 35 BJ 9-7 BP 31= 163/4.44 = 36.7
Joe Haeg (incomplete) assume an average 25 BP would be a 148/4.47 = 33.1
VJ 30 BJ 9-3 BP DNP
Joe Thuney
VJ 28.5 BJ 9-3 BP 28 = 149.5/4.54 = 32.93
Connor McGovern
VJ 33 BJ 9-1 BP 33 = 157/4.65 = 33.8
Jake Brendel
VJ 28 BJ 9-0 BP 25 = 143/4.27 = 33.5
Joel Heath
VJ 33 BJ 9-5 BP 26 = 154/4.52 = 34.1
Players could beast the explosive but falter in the agility and fall out of profile, or that could fall just shy of the explosive and kill the agility to make in back into favor with the overall profile. But one could not be simply above average in both or absolutely poor in either one while excelling in the other.
The only Seahawks picks that don’t meet this 33 level are Terry Poole, Justin Britt, and Ryan Seymour (32.9). We may be on to something here!
Or you use this metric and then figure in arm length.
So for example, 150/4.7 = 31.9. Then if the player has a 32″+ arms, he is a keeper.
yeah, its not perfect. for well balanced players to meet the criteria. Imagine if it was the 70 point total and a guy put up 45 on bench but had an 18″ VJ and a 7′ BJ. The guy would score a 70 but I would be willing to put money on the hawks not feeling that he was very explosive.
Right now, I like the OL/DL/OL Sandwich the best for the first 3 picks, and hopefully getting a quality RB right there after. Best way to get two young upgrades on the OL, and a DL that would be pretty close to a plug and play contributor.
26: R1P26
OT/OG JASON SPRIGGS
INDIANA
56: R2P25
DT/DE WILLIE HENRY
MICHIGAN
90: R3P27
G/C CONNOR MCGOVERN
MISSOURI
97: R3P34
RB TYLER ERVIN
SAN JOSE STATE
124: R4P26
OLB TRAVIS FEENEY
WASHINGTON
171: R5P32
S/CB JAMES BRADBERRY
SAMFORD
215: R6P40
DE/OLB JAMES COWSER
SOUTHERN UTAH
225: R7P4
WR/RB DJ FOSTER
ARIZONA STATE
247: R7P26
G ALEX REDMOND
UCLA
However, if they are really high on Bullard and he’s available, thinking they are one DL away from their 2013 form of defensive dominance, and Ervin is the offensive weapon they crave, maybe they would feel there isn’t that much of a drop off from Spriggs to Haeg, or McGovern to Dahl, and it might land this way.
26: R1P26
DT/DE JONATHAN BULLARD
FLORIDA
56: R2P25
OT/OG JOE HAEG
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
90: R3P27
RB TYLER ERVIN
SAN JOSE STATE
97: R3P34
G/C JOE DAHL
WASHINGTON STATE
124: R4P26
OLB TRAVIS FEENEY
WASHINGTON
171: R5P32
OT BRANDON SHELL
SOUTH CAROLINA
215: R6P40
FB/TE GLENN GRONKOWSKI
KANSAS STATE
225: R7P4
DT DAVID ONYEMATA
MANITOBA
247: R7P26
WR DEVON CAJUSTE
STANFORD
My guess, like Rob has pointed out, they probably don’t want to flirt too heavenly on hoping their OL targets will be there as it gets later in the draft. Ian Furness and Jason Puckett were mentioning today that the Falcons were working Joe Dahl over pretty heavily during his pro day. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ultimately goes higher than many are thinking. Also, I think Feeney realistically could go higher than R4, but this is just my wishful thinking.
Really can’t go wrong with either of these drafts if you ask me though I have a slight preference for the first option. I do wonder if Spriggs is G material though – for me he might be a Tackle only. Might still be worth it though.
Yeah, honestly, not really sure on Spriggs or Haeg at OG. Just going off the magic formula and how they like to bounce tackles to guards. Honestly, I’d be fine with McGovern and Dahl, and one of them play guard and the other play center, but that’s just me.
C-Dog. I absolutely LOVE the Gronkowski pick.
I like Option #1 a lot! I’d replace Willie Henry with Bronson Kaufusi. Kaufusi’s short shuttle and triple cone are way faster than Henry’s.
I’ve heard some say that the Seahawks would be the best team to take a chance on Jaylon Smith LB ND at 26 – that if he wouldn’t have had the knee injury, he would have been the #1 pick. Heard he is already squatting 400 lbs and that he should be back in the second half of 2016 season. Thoughts?
Go Hawks!
If Jaylon is there and there’s at least a 50% chance he returns to form, he should be the pick.
I can’t see the Seahawks drafting Smith at #56 let alone #26. They are the definition of a win now team — they need impact from this class.
For me he’s going to go on day three without some surprising news at the medical rechecks. Nerve damage is a serious issue.
Has anyone actually confirmed he has nerve damage? I thought it was just one guy on Twitter making an expert internet diagnosis based on 10 seconds of footage?
There were several reports from high profile NFL reporters that the injury news was not good from the combine.
We will see what happens with the medical recheck. If they wanted to do that, I could see them trying to trade down a few spots with someone like Denver or into the top of the first round, still getting Smith and picking up a third in the process to use for OL/DL. I feel like we’ve established there are going to be guys there on day 2 that the team is liable to target that aren’t necessarily a huge dropoff from late in the first.
Just my take, but I think there’s a 0% chance they draft Jaylon Smith at #26
Agreed. I meant top of second, by the way. I don’t think they would, but who knows? They’ve been known to surprise us. I was simply considering a scenario where, if he was a guy they felt they had to have, could also address other needs.
My FanSpeak mock draft. I should probably be hired in Schneider’s place.
1. Jaylon Smith
2. Ezekiel Elliott
3. Chris. Jones
3. McGovern
4. Haeg
5. Deion Jones
6. Feeney
7. North
Hawks just believe of the 3 measurables, that the long jump is the most important. Conversely, while the vertical jump must be 2nd, they just assume that the bench can be improved on after the player gets in a pro training regime. Hence that must be the figure that is most flexible
just = must
Right. Bench press can be improved upon later, but they have also mentioned it is a good indicator of whether or not a prospect has proved he will put in the work in the weight room.
They can certainly improve their strength in a pro regime, but not unless they are already a hard worker.
Perfect example of this we see in Gilliam. UDFA, fights his way up, hard worker, and now look at him:
https://twitter.com/garry_gilliam/status/715986531274596352
(thanks to CHawk Talker Eric for posting the link the other day)
It’s unforunate, but it’s also the only way to measure upper body strength when it comes to the combine or pro day drills. Until the NFL goes to a PB throw, it’s all they got.
I would love to see them use the (caber toss, sheaf toss, and weight over the bar) tests from the scottish highland games. Caber toss would measure power while expressing controlled use of power, Sheaf toss would measure power in an extended position, and weight over bar would measure explosive compact upper body force. All of these uses of strength are in fact used on a football field. This would be testing only needed for OL and DL (power in the trenches.
Thanks for the info Rob, this piece says it all right there, I some what see how they look at the evaluations now, best piece I have ever read from you!, thanks for the eye opener and all you do for this blog!;) so who from that short list do you want to be a Seahawk!?
Rob, I think we are really close on the OL with these measurables. Thanks for the excellent work!
Add in Cable’s comment last year about not having their rear end too high off the ground causing them to lose leverage/balance and maybe that could knock one or two down (or off) the list?
“I think when you look at the history of good run players, they’re the 6’4”, 6’5” body. Once they start getting longer and taller than that, their rear end gets a little further from the ground, and hard in terms of leverage. Yet, you can find guys that can do it once in a while… but they’re rare.”
Here’s a good transcript of that interview (with paragraph headers for quick reading) I found helpful as a refresher: http://blog.thenewstribune.com/seahawks/2015/05/08/tom-cable-on-seahawks-ol-we-like-the-guys-we-have-as-minicamp-begins/
Also mentioned specific things they liked in Glow and Poole, besides the obvious athleticism and grit:
– Glow: strong-handed, stays in front as 1v1 pass blocker
– Poole: ability to strike people and quickness
At this point, I think more than trying to work out a definitive mathematical formula, the final two steps to figuring this out are:
1. Deduce exactly what “they change direction the right way” means. This seems like it refers to something key that I remember JS cutting off Cable when he started talking too specifically in the past. I suspect it has more to do with an eye test more than pure drill numbers.
2. Rank the shortlisted Seahawks prospects by versatility and intangibles (grit, nastiness, overcoming obstacles, putting in work in the weight room, smarts, willing learner)
If we can do that it will just be a question of which targeted player is available as the board falls on draft day, which nobody tends to predict better than JS, so we’re in good hands!
With Clark slimming down to edge size and after signing Clem, i’m pretty certain they will wait for next year’s great edge rushing class to add to it.
It leave the top needs IMO to OL and pocket pressing DT followed by SAM later on. OL-DT or DT-OL at the top.
Afterwards its BPA with RB/LB leading…
Could be right. Kind of my where my head is it right now too.
If there’s a guy there they like, take him, but if not, I suspect they might look to the later rounds or UDFA for an EDGE rusher. Get one on the cheap.
Agree with you guys on a late-round/UDFA project type for EDGE.
I don’t really like the conventional terms “need” vs. “BPA”. Maybe we should coin a term that embodies the Seahawks draft philosophy of taking the biggest improvement available vs. current roster at the position. That’s neither exactly drafting by need nor strictly BPA in a vacuum. Maybe BPIA… biggest positional improvement available… or something?
You could say, for example, OL is a “need”, and most of us know what we mean in Hawks context, but in reality we are looking to improve over Britt, Lewis, etc.. You could say SAM is a “need”, but the guy we draft would need to be that much better than Morgan, Marsh, Pinkins, KPL, etc. to make the investment worth it.
I like that. The term. BPIA. I
Or BPA at a need position. Don’t know what the acronym would be.
“With Clark slimming down to edge size and after signing Clem, i’m pretty certain they will wait for next year’s great edge rushing class to add to it.”
Yes, I think you are right.
I think they are still missing a pure speed rusher, and it is always good to have one of those on the roster. I am not sure if there are (m)any in this draft class.
Who knows, maybe Josh Shirley or Ryan Robinson step up and provide some speed rush.
I really like the guys they have on the back end of the roster this year.
Shirley you must be joking
He is serious. And don’t call him Shirley.
There is TWO things Pete Carroll has said that he wants out of this draft.
1) Carroll wants to improve the offensive line.
2) Carroll wants players on defense that can force turnovers.
Those are two thoughts to keep in my for this draft.
Yep
“2) Carroll wants players on defense that can force turnovers.”
That comment has been stuck in my head. It is so cryptic. What do you think he means? I’d love to hear your thoughts on this Rob.
On the surface it seems relatively straight forward. The defense can force more turnovers by forcing more fumbles or having more interceptions. But how do you draft for that? Who is out there that fits that description? Keanu Neal comes to mind in that he plays in the defensive backfield (where most of the interceptions will be made) and hits like Kam Chancellor so he could create both more fumbles and more interceptions. An elite pass rusher would work but given our draft position we may not have much of a shot unless they fall down the draft board. Maybe they end up taking a flyer on Spence or Nkemdiche? An uber athletic LB? Feeney? Fackrell?
A lot of research has gone into Pete Carroll’s comments on the O/L. And rightfully so. It is a glaring need. But a defensive player who can “create more turnovers”? Who might that be?
Thanks for this blog Rob. Love it.
I think he means pass rushers. Force mistakes for the opportunistic secondary. Splash play specialists. I don’t think Nkemdiche will be on their board due to the violence and drugs.
I dont think Nkemdiche is on their board either but it seems that given their draft position they may have to reach for a splash play specialist. Who do you see fits that criteria?
I love Bullard but he’s not that guy. Kaufusi sounds most likely assuming Rankins doesn’t fall down to us.
Bullard might not be that guy right now but I think he certainly could end up as being that guy. I think Bullard is much more likely to have an impact on this team than Kaufusi would in 2016. I’m not that impressed with Kaufusi’s tape, tbh, but I can see why people would like him for his athletic potential.
I don’t think Kaufusi is that guy, either. Tall and awkward.
I still think that Ogbah could be that kind of player, but as Rob mentioned there could be an issue with his motor running non-stop. However, he tested very well, and his production was top level for his position in college.
In all the College Football you watched this past year Rob, did you see anyone you’d project as a Day 1 starter for the Seahawks on the interior D-Line? Someone you feel fulfills Pete Carroll’s profile?
One of my favorite stats.
2015 FBS Forced Fumble totals for notable players in this draft:
DL-Carl Nassib, 13-games, 6-FF (Highest of all DL players)
FS/CB-Sean Davis, 12-games, 5-FF (highest among all DB’s)
LB-Joe Schobert, 13-games, 5-FF (highest among LB’s)
LB-Antwione Williams, 13-games, 4-TFL
DL-Charles Tapper, 13-games, 4-FF
LB-Jatavis Brown, 13-games, 4-FF
DB-Jeremy Cash, 12-games, 3-FF
DL-Bronson Kaufusi, 13-games, 3-FF
DL-Emmanuel Ogbah, 13-games,3-FF
LB-Travis Feeney, 13-games, 3-FF
DL-Kamalei Correa, 13-games, 3-FF
no other notable players with 3 or more FF’s.
http://www.cfbstats.com/2015/leader/national/player/split01/category22/sort01.html
Don’t know if it makes a difference although some might try to convince me. Sweezy was drafted by the hawks and he was caught with Pot in his house and he assaulted a 65yo ..so I wouldn’t rule out Nkemdiche.
and Nkemdiche is a better overall talent.
You can force turnovers on downs. What’s the area they felt was their biggest detriment on 3rd down? Maybe the interior D-line? Just trying to think outside the box here haha
I think it is an overlooked truth. Turnover, simply put means the Seahawks get the ball rather than the other team driving down the field.
To me if they are going to force turnovers, much of that has to come from a disruptive DL. As far as the edge goes, Clark takes Irivn’s 3rd down rush spot (probably an improvement imo), and they add Clemons to the rotation, offering a little rest/insurance for Avril/Bennet.
But as far as the interior of the line goes, they have gotten worse, because Clark is no longer in the equation to rush from the inside. They need a 3rd down rushing DT option somewhere in this draft.
You are right, GerryG. Clark+Clem does suggest that interior becomes the main focus from here. Rubin+Siliga is serviceable, but not spectacular. How much will Hill provide, if any? They need two more studs at DT.
He said “we want the football more, for whatever reason we didn’t take the football away from our opponents”. First listen I 100% thought 3rd down stops.
Bingo Darth. I wish I could find the quote, but PC once said a 3rd down stop is like a mini turnover.
Right on. And I think a penetrating DT is just the piece they still need. Disrupt the pocket and:
– move QB off his spot for errant throws = INTs
– move QB out of pocket into the arms of edge rushers = FUMs.
Hopefully Hill and a draft pick can get it done for us!
I like that line of thinking, especially 3 and outs. So which defensive player would help the most on 3rd downs? Rankins? Neal? Bullard? Does Billings provide some disruption up the middle?
It seems they have their sights on one of those guys to fill that role, because they have not even invited a FA to visit to fill that role.
Our secondary looks to be much stronger heading into next year, which is a point that I don’t think can be emphasized enough. Sherm-ET3-Jeremy Lane not coming off serious injuries, Kam (hopefully) coming to terms with his contract, and guys like Shead-Simon-Burley-SJB-Smith-Seisay competing for time on the field…
We seem to have a solid run stopping group with Rubin-Siliga-Francis-Bennett-Marsh-Hill…
Getting a Nascar package like we had in 2013 could be the key to getting the ball back, one way or another, at a better rate that makes Pete happy. Rankins would obviously be a great overall fit here, but he won’t drop to us. I still think Bullard’s snap timing, quick first step, and overall strength are going to be tough for many interior linemen to deal with in a one-on-one situation. And if you have Avril, Bennett, and Clark in there as well the OL will have to pick their poison.
Getting a situational interior rusher after the first round would obviously be a great alternative to a guy like Bullard at #26; it just seems to be much more difficult to figure who that guy would be at #56 or later.
Great point
Players on defense that can force turnovers? I think Darron Lee fits that description if he’s available at 26. Jatavis Brown is another turnover machine in later rounds. DT Adolphus Washington has fallen down a lot of draft boards, but he was a major disruptive influence along the line. He’d be a great pick in the 3rd.
William Jackson has good numbers when it comes to interceptions. I wouldn’t mind at all if he was there first pick.
Hey Rob, Maybe you could explain to us which of these metrics can be improved over time with training? I am guessing that the bench press numbers could be significantly altered for the better, while the broad jump less so. What say you?
Agree. If you trained on the bench exclusively you will improve. The bench is a stamina test anyway when it’s reps. A guy weighing 300lbs should be able to lift 225lbs fairly easily to be fair. Especially a pro. So reps training is simple. It’s whether they want to do core strength training instead which would be more useful.
Hard to become more explosive in legs. Legs training is mega hard.
As I understand it you can improve explosiveness to an extent, but a good deal of it is purely based on physiology – how many short twitch muscle fibres you have.
Have to say I’ve got no idea why the bench is set up like it is. You’d be way better off seeing what these guys can clean. Or even seeing what they can push as a 3RM.
Seahawks scouts at Dartmouth pro day:
@DartFootball: The late arriving crowd includes the Jaguars, Chiefs, Packers & Seahawks! #NFL #ProDay #4stripes #biggreenfootball
CB Vernon Harris 6’1″ 195lbs
50 tackles and 3 INTs in only 10 games this year.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VEVNLKLrkXc&feature=youtu.be
FS Troy Donahue 6’1″ 195lbs
DT AJ Zuttah 6’1″ 294lbs, 5.23/2.89/1.74 40yd, 28.5″ VJ, 8-04 BJ, 4.65 SS, 7.80 3C, 30 BP*
*Results from Rutgers pro day on 3/19
Couple of interesting names there.
Speaking of Rutgers, what happened to Rutgers WR Leonte Carroo in everyone’s mock drafts?
@NFLDraftBible: Safety Troy Donahue receiving attention from NFL scouts at Dartmouth pro day. Some under the radar prospects working out today #DraftTwitter
Once Kearse resigned WR went down on the list of needs. Still like Carroo, bummer he hasn’t stayed healthy for the draft process. Think he could be a nice pickup for the right team at the end of day 2.
Also keep an eye on DL Cody Fulleton. VJ of 30 inches, 38 reps at 225, 4.8 forty at 295 lbs and looked like a stud in drills. Our scout worked him out at some full back as well. Played with him for two years and the dude turns psychotic once he puts on pads. Loves the game, team player, and quite the athlete. Met with our scout for quite a long time after drills. Would be interesting as a three-tech or even at full back.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fLow8AlCU8
Appears as if Donahue tweaked a hammy but his VJ was marked at 38 inches, and he put up 19 reps on bench. Great character and likely interviewed well.
Harris looks very good. The type of corner Seattle would covet. Can press and play off. Very good eyes and instincts. Has good speed too. Open field tackling impressed me.
As long as they get 2 OL early that aren’t converts and have OL experience, I would be good. McGovern and Glasgow would work.
Gilliam/McGovern/Glasgow/Glowinski/Webb
1st Henry/Bullard/Ogbah/Neal
2nd McGover
3rd Glasgow
3rd
Not sure Glasgow is enough of an athlete for SEA.
Nice. I like this, Ed.
Might have to switch out Glasgow for Dahl though because Glasgow doesn’t meet the requirements discussed in the article. (at least Rob didn’t list him)
3rd Comp: RB Ervin (just add him in and I think you’ve got a great draft!)
I was curious on how the explosion score determines how well a player could do. I thought it would be great to see the best Tackle to ever play the game and how he did with these numbers, and would the Hawks have drafted him at #3 or #6 in the first round. But unfortunately after looking around for a half hour I could not find Walter Jones combine # from 1997.
Let me dig around, I might be able to help you out here. For SCIENCE!
Once Seattle got Springs at No. 3, Jones (6’5″, 315) was the only player the Seahawks would have traded up to get in 1997. He will step in at left tackle, with incumbent starter James Atkins moving to right guard. As was the case with many teams, Jones grew on the Seahawks. He jumped out at them once they started watching video of his only season at Florida State. He startled them by running 40 yards in 4.67 and 4.71 seconds during his workout in Tallahassee last month. He impressed them during a visit to the team’s headquarters the week before the draft. Just how much do the Seahawks like this guy? Listen to offensive line coach Howard Mudd: “You can make a case that Walter Jones could become close to Orlando Pace. Walter is a very, very athletic player. He’s probably the best pure athlete I’ve seen (among offensive linemen) since the Chris Hinton and Anthony Munoz time.” He also had exceptionally long arms, I thought around 36″.
This is the single stat that says it all…. “Walter Jones said the quarterbacks may have been to blame on a few of those 23 sacks he gave up in 12 seasons playing left tackle.”
I’m looking for a trade down
2nd Connor McGovern C, G
56 Austin Johnson DT Penn St.
90 Joe Haeg T, North Dakota St.
97 Tyler Irvin RB San Jose St.
4th Nick Vannet TE Ohio St.
124 Joe Dahl C,G
171 Deandre Elliott CB Colorado St.
215 Rees Odhiambo G, RT Boise St.
224 Andy Janoviche FB,ST Nebraska
248 ?
Ya its offensive heavy but we need the completion for both talent to compete and depth. Here you go Wilson your the leader now.
Ok but what did we get in your mock in return for moving down…?
Ah, duh, I see the extra 4th now, my bad.
The last series of Posts have been Masterworks of Research and reasoning, Rob. Your work has illuminated what the Seahawks actually might be thinking and the way they make choices.
From it all, I’m getting the distinct impression that Mcgovern in the 2nd Round is the hope for the O-Line. If you can get Dahl later, then the 2 new guys provide the competition that Pete wants.
It leaves the 1st Round pick to be spent on Defense. I’m beginning to wonder if there is an instant difference maker for our Interior D-Line in this Draft at all, regardless of the Capital required to get him. Is Rankins that good? Or just the best of this mediocre group? How would his Explosion Score compare to the best in the NFL Rob?
Rankins’ explosion score is as good as any player that weighs 300lbs. He is an incredible athlete.
He would be ideal but will go top-15.
Have we discussed them moving up in the first? Not really their M.O.but if they ID him as the guy to add to the interior it could be worth it. What does 11 spots in rd 1 cost?
While a superb athlete and probably a + pro i doubt he’s the kind of guy you have to get, have to scramble up for
You’d have to give up #56 to move up 11 spots. Or next years 1st. You’d have to be in love with Rankin’s to make it worthwhile.
Speaking of giving up a lot of draft capital to move up and draft a player you love, in the 2014 draft I actually wanted the Seahawks to give up multiple #1’s, along with other picks, to go up and get Aaron Donald. I was that sure he would be an awesome pro (as he has been). He was explosive, ultra-talented, and most importantly he was a very SOUND and smart player. His technique was perfect. I just knew he would be terrific. I’m getting a really good feeling about Bullard as well (not as much as I did with Donald, though).
What is your opinion of Sheldon Rankins?
I would be willing to trade up to, say, the 20th overall pick (Jets) to land Rankins.
I agree with the assessment that he will go top 15. He is quite good at a position where there is not a great deal of “splash” players, DT. Don’t get me wrong, there are plenty of nice DTs in the draft, but he is exceptional compared to most of them.
Rob, AGREED. Rankins is exceptionally explosive. This is also an excellent measure to determine the extent of his abilities. I the 10yd split as well as the 40 or 20yd shuttle for defensive explosiveness. But, ultimately film would be the true measuring stick. These are a few of which I hope they select at least two:
~300lb
Rankins 28 reps, 34.5 vert, 9-10 broad, 5.03 40,
Nkimdechi 28 reps, 35 vert, 9-8 broad, 4.87 40, 1.67 10 split
Hargrave 29 reps, 34.5 vert, 9-1 broad, 4.93 40, 1.69 10 split
275-285lb
Judon 30 reps, 35 vert, 9-1 broad, 4.73 40, 1.69 10 split
Blair 30 reps, 32 vert, 9-5 broad, 5.5 40, 1.74 10 split
Bullard 23 reps, 32 vert, 9-8 broad, 4.93 40, 1.65 10 split
Based on film, I think Hargrave would be a better fit than Bullard. The strength of his numbers is even more convincing, perhaps a later Rd @ 98. The only reason for the rating distinction is arm length.
Judon would also be a better fit @ an even later Rd @ 171. Just not sold on Bullard. You know what I think of Nkimdechi. If available, case solved for inside explosive push.
Seahawks met with Midwestern S Marqui Christian. One of my school sleepers.
IMO, I think they add a safety on day 3, or as a priority UDFA.
Hudl highlights.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Izhys30oLis
Really good looking S/CB hybrid.
Great eyes, ball skills, down hill explosion, works his way through trash, heavy hitter.
Looks like his pro day tape is on YouTube as well if interested:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vLvKKmP1a0
Says he visited with the Rams and has visits scheduled with Cardinals, Raiders, and Jets.
22 teams in attendance @ MSU pro-day. Afterwards, Marqui Christian met with the Bears, Chargers, Seahawks and had dinner with the Cardinals.
40: 4.3-4.4 Shuttle: 4.1 3-cone: 6.8 Vert: 35.5 Broad: 10 Bench:14
That’s a pretty fire line. Any idea of that 10 y split
*small school
Rob who would have ever thought there would be a huge game in the Premiere League Sunday AM this late in the season between to top clubs and those teams would be Southampton and Leicester!
If they can win tomorrow I think they have a great shot with the remainder of their schedule. What do you think? The Tottenham draw today must have helped.
.
Meant to post this up above, but I like WRs Carroo, Charone Peake, Cajuste, and icb has me sold on Malcom Mitchell in the 4th round range.
Carroo is right around that 35% offensive accountability that Seattle likes in their wideouts.
If Seattle doesn’t take a WR before or in round 4, I think they’ll wait until UDFA to adress it.
Guys like Cal WR Bryce Treggs, Udub’s Jaydon Mickens, Baylor’s Jay Lee, Richmond’s Reggie Diggs, BYU’s Mitch Matthews, Lindenwood’s Greg Coble.
Pete and John should (and I’m sure will) take a serious look at that German WR.
Hey SDB community, I know most of the conversation this week has centered on athleticism, but something I felt we were sorely lacking last year was some straight up meanness.
Who are some guys you are targeting with some real toughness, grit, or just punch you in the mouth attitude. I’m looking for pancakes, big hits, penalties, playing through injuries, loud guys yelling at the team on the sideline.
The drafting of Cassius Marsh was a supposed to be a boon for his attitude and mentality, but it just seemed that we were missing any of that bully for most games. Our heartbeat is gone with the retirement of Money Lynch. I think Chris Clemons’ signing mitigates this void a little, but we need a real emotional driving force on the offense. Maybe that could be a Center that loves to hit?
I think a player’s toughness can take many forms. It doesn’t necessarily have to mean him scowling a lot or having a lot of tattoos on his body. Sometimes toughness is just quietly going about your business every day.
For example, I think Russell Wilson is pretty tough. We all know how smart he is about avoiding big hits, but he still takes his share of lumps. Think about how few a number of times we’ve seen Wilson limp or grimace in pain.
In 4 full seasons, I’ve seen him outwardly show pain ONCE. He plays a very physically taxing brand of football, but just quietly and methodically goes about his business. He’s overcome the death of his father at an early age as well. I think Wilson’s toughness and resilience is a very underrated trait.
As far as intimidating opponents with our offense, keeping Wilson clean in the pocket would go a long way to accomplishing that. Opposing defenses would get frustrated and demoralized if they can’t get a pass rush on him.
No argument here. He got in a wrestling match with demarcus ware.
He said “there’s no way youre getting this ball demarcus”
That’s earning respect in this league. Who do you think is gonna do it?
Great point, Kenny. Thanks for mentioning that memory, it just made my day.
I’d say Rawls has a lot of that in his game. Looks to bury guys instead of going out of bounds.
But yes, while guys like Breno,Red,Browner,Sweezy are replaceable from a talent perspective, a certain element of meanness left with them.
I love Rawls he looks for contact almost like an obligation.
Like the lockerroom will eat him alive if he don’t.
Which they will.
KennySloth, I thank you for bringing this up. The Seahawks have lost much of the meanness, grit, intimidation that they had, due to many of the veterans leaving and not being replaced with equal or better (in terms of mean). They still have “enough”, but it has not been the same. It was the combination of flat out physical dominance at many positions as well as attitude and swagger, that was backed up by the physicality. Sherman, ET, Kam are older—good,but not where they once were. Time and age do that, gradually in their cases.
EranUngar wrote a piece about the loss of intimidation factor a while back in a fanpost at FieldGulls. I had the link to it bookmarked, but can’t find it now. EranUngar, if you’re out there, you might want to post the link so people can read your piece.
It’s not clear if this team will ever be that smashmouth one that scared everyone. They started to evolve into something else. This offseason will be interesting.
I am glad Clem is back. I wonder if any of the old group is available for a reunion, that is, if they still got it.
Now of course, it is obvious that they always seek the combination of athleticism and toughness in every player. But what I’m referring to is a special combination of individual and collective intimdation level that the Hawks had a few seasons back. Hard to achieve.
For sure, with Browner, Clem, Big Red, Giaco, and of course Marshawn.
I think it can make for an interesting dichotomy and tough evaluation in a way.
Guys like Breno, Browner and Red became starting caliber NFL players almost entirely off of their physicality and meanness, which is great – but teams often end up looking to move on from those types in favor of guys with superior levels of talent/athleticism, to mixed results.
When you get that combination of talent and edge is when you’ve really got something great. Guys like Marshawn Lynch and Steve Smith; I think Doug Baldwin is an underrated guy in that respect.
Steve Smith is only 5’9″, but he’s a monster. He’s got enough chips on his shoulder for the whole city of Baltimore!
“Ice up, son!” LOL
Steele, it was part of a bigger post.
This is the part about it:
We are not the bullies winning the game as we get off the bus:
JS acknowledged this transformation in his interview and Brian Nemhauser (hawkblogger) wrote a wonderful article about it: “Seahawks In Search of Toughness” – http://www.hawkblogger.com/2016/01/seahawks-in-search-of-toughness.html#more
Remember the days when Mebane was the “lil guy” between Red and Branch? The 6-8 Breno or the 340 pound Carp manhandling Jason Smith? The angry look on Clem’s face or BB abusing receivers at the LOS? ALL GONE.
Remember the Legion of BOOM? They got their nickname because BB packed a punch, Earl was a heat-seeking missile and Kam was shaking off fragments of Vernon Davis that stuck to his shoulder pads. They are Love Our Brother now, one of the best secondaries in football but they are quite BOOMLESS.
Avril is a better player than Clem, so is Bennett. They get the job done, they bring on the pressure, they get the QB off his spot, they are very fast and disruptive. They do not scare you like Clem and Branch did, or even McDonald. They are better football players but not as physical. The only truly physical player on the OL is…Sweezy. Our receivers are tough as nails, they are the best group we had in the past 3 years, they can take whatever you can dish and rise to play the next snap but none of them has a Tate vibe. They will outplay you but they will not out-muscle anybody.
The last great symbol of the physical Seahawks has just played his last game for us and the next big run by a RB will not be registered as a seismic event. Rawls may be as productive or even better but he does not bring the Beast Mode vibe.
This is who we are right now. We may be playing the best football of any Seahawks team ever but we are not as physical as the teams that started this era.
Great points EranUngar. I think the FO sees this and in part brought back clem to push the guys who have softened up recently (Kam).
I can really see him having some powerful stuff to say to these guys.
It’s just like you said. Where’s the boom?
Oof Chancellor’s lack of big hits last year really irks me.
Agree completely Eran.
This may explain why a draft that has Billings or Neal or Bullard will make me smile. It is why i like Coleman or McGovern over the others.
I want us to be the team everybody hates. I want teams that play us to lose their game on the following week because they are recovering…
We are not going to be that team by concentrating on better pass protection.
Everybody here use the term “Seahawky player”. It means different things for different people. To me, when i look at the tape, that term means “playing with unnecessary roughness” on every play.
To this day i believe that the SB was not won when Denver started with that bad snap. That game was won on Denver’s second offensive play of that game. When Kam sent Thomas flying in the air on that crossing route it was clear the Seahawks are not taking any prisoners…
That is the team i believe in…
The Seahawks are already the team everybody hates. With or without this draft.
No other team has a comparable core to this team.
I don’t know why people keep forgetting that.
I disagree about the grit and determination but I think they are lacking that toughness that was lost with kams dip in play (I can count on one hand how many bug hits I remember from 2015) and Bobby Wagner not really delivering many crushing hits I suspect that next year that could change Kam could just have a better year and so could Bobby and a lot of that factor would be back
For a brawler who finishes, I like Connor McGovern: when he blocks somebody, he blocks them all the way down to the ground. He’s the kind of guy who swats a fly twice to make sure it’s dead. Some of his plays remind me of Ricardo Lockette in the Beastquake II, except McGovern weighs 308 pounds.
A little Breno or Sweezy to him 😉
Agreed, but that’s about where my list ends!
I like Tapper’s violence, he can be a bully.
I like both he and Alex McCalister’s ability to draw flags and piss off the oline.
I like Karl Joseph as a headhunter.
Su’a Cravens just makes everything look so difficult.
Guys, I love this post. I mentioned months ago that we are no longer the bullies of the NFL. Brian at Hawkblogger wrote a great piece, but those of us who really know our team didn’t need someone to tells us this, we saw it on Sundays. Remember when Dallas came to town years ago, they were intimidated and punished. Remember when Browner decleeted three Cardinals in under five seconds. And yes, we remember SB48 when the “best damn offense the world has ever seen” was destroyed.
Gone are the Browners, Giacominis, “Mike Robs”, Clem (welcome home), and of course, THE BEAST!
No longer do our beloved Hawks rule like they once did. Last year we saw the bullied wipe the blood from their face, dust themselves off and punch the bully in the face. We still have a nice nucleus to build around. We will see if PC/JS can restore that mentality.
Go Hawks!
That Dallas game, was that the game when Tate put that hit on their LB?
You know it was…
Sean Lee ain’t been the same since. Embarrassing hit.
The Cardinals are Pearl Jam’s Jeremy
How about these later-rounds defensive prospects?
1) Aaron Wallace, OLB, UCLA
2) Su’a Cravens, LB/SS, USC
3) Juston Burris, CB, North Carolina State
4) Kyle Peko, NT, Oregon State
The Hawks always seem to find a defensive diamond in the rough in the later rounds. Are one of these four it this year? Thoughts?
Go Hawks!
I’m not sure that Cravens is a late round prospect.
Really like UCLA’s Aaron Wallace. I could see Seattle having interest him. He’s one of my favorite day 3 OLB prospects.
Peko would be an interesting guy to keep tabs on….. nothing that says “flash”, but he does his job.
Is someone like Keanu Neal still in play do you think?
If they think they can grab their trenches guys later?
Not a chance. JS already said that Kam isn’t going anywhere and it would be foolish to dump him with 2 years left on his deal (and he wasn’t bad last year, just not at his typically lofty level of play). It wouldn’t save them much cap space to cut/trade him. On top of that, the Hawks traded a 5th for McCray this season and he performed well. There’s no way they take a safety on day 1 or 2.
If the do draft Neal, it most likely is for the Deathbaker spot, not safety.
Neal’s value is as a safety – that’s where he excelled in college. He’s a natural SS. Neal’s first/second round valuation is based on his play at safety. To take him that high with intent on switching his natural position would be a mistake for any team.
We should also consider the Hawks tendencies here. Just because a couple other teams have utilized “deathbacker” types doesn’t mean the Hawks will. Pete has been running the same defense for most of his coaching career, and the Hawks current personnel are perfect for it. He’s not changing it up when it’s been so successful. They use a SAM and WILL in their 4-3 Under base run defense. Maybe you could argue that Neal could play WILL, but he’s way smaller than any other LB the Hawks have used there. Plus you would be moving KJ Wright off of the WILL spot, the position he played last season in what was his career year. The other half of the team’s snaps come in their nickel pass defense, where Wagner and Wright are entrenched for the present and future as nickel LBs (based on talent and financial commitment).
The bottom line is using a top 30-40 pick on a player who has no clear path to snaps in the next 2+ seasons would be a waste of resources, especially considering the glaring needs they have at DT and all over the offensive line. A player like Neal would be an ideal replacement for Kam, but Kam is still a good player who could easily bounce back to a pro bowl level this season. They also have good depth with McCray, Terrell, and even Shead can play FS.
why
See I actually think that furthers the point if the Hawks want a “deathbacker” they can pick up jatavis brown in round 4 or 5 or really just any smaller linebacker
Pot Roast Knighton is on the verge of signing with the Patriots. It is down to either NE or Wash. This, after Knighton said he didn’t want to be a rotational guy. NE keeps bringing them in.
Cancel the fantasy of Knighton next to Rubin.
Do you think Knighton could fit our scheme, Steele? We had Mebane at a tilted nose position 1 tech not 0. What kind of position did he play for them? More head up on the center, right?
If they did indeed bring him in, then they would make a place for him. Perhaps slightly tweaking the upfront alignment. All a pipe dream, since he is headed East anyhow.
Jason Spriggs (Indiana)
Germain Ifedi (Texas A&M)
Connor McGovern (Missouri)
Joe Dahl (Washington State)
Joe Haeg (North Dakota State)
I think Glasgow needs to be added to the final short list. One reason is because he performed well at both the Shrine and Senior Bowl, did well against top competition.
Dahl and Haeg would have good value round 5 or later. They are on the watchlist and it would not be a shock if one or both got the call to become a Seahawk during the draft.
Id take Dahl on his versatility. I think hes a round 3 guy. Think he could play C coming in. theres some tape of him actually calling out protection while playing G.
I went looking on NFLdraftscout just for fun using the three factors of VJ – BJ – Bench and found this guy. Justin Zimmer a defensive lineman from Ferris State, no not an offensive lineman but you know Tom Cable.
Look at these numbers. Vertical Jump 32, Broad Jump 9′ 9″ and Bench Press 44! Yes that’s right 9′ 9″ and 44 bench.
Here’s the rest of his numbers. http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=129601&draftyear=2016&genpos=DT Oh and he runs a 4.91 40. He might be a convert or just stay a DT/DE.
Here’s a video too, #48, https://youtu.be/ZsQr0X6EsF8
Zimmer might turn out to be one of those guys who’s a great athlete, but not nearly as good of a football player. That being said, I’m also intrigued by his raw athleticism. Any link to some video of this guy?
Sorry, didn’t notice the link you provided. Thanks!
Apparently the secret’s out. Here’s another link from FanSided of when he was at the NFL Regional combine in Houston. http://nflspinzone.com/2016/04/02/2016-nfl-draft-justin-zimmer-ultimate-sleeper/
Zimmer has gotten some pub, due to the raw athleticism. Someone will take a shot on him….. I think Seattle needs quality OL who have played OL for a number of years. The learning curve is steep enough jumping from CFB to NFL… why make it even tougher on a “kid”.
Well, as I said, he might be pretty good if he just stays at DT/DE. And your last line could be a Tom Cable Mantra with a small addition. “Why NOT, make it even tougher on a kid?”
They really like players who went and earned their testing numbers. I think they’ll love Charles Tapper and Justin Zimmer.
Okay so I’m a dolt, Sir Rob Stanton did a write up on this young man Justin Zimmer back in January predicting this sleeper’s building buzz. Sorry Rob, I guess I just need to catch up. I’m such a slow reader and all. I hate to have to admit it, but I haven’t read every column and comment here. Life and remodeling the house, our house as I go, keep getting in the way of this quality leisurely dalliance. I would say keep up the good work, but, clearly you already have. Thanks Dez. I’ll keep looking for these “dingy diamonds on the turf though”…
Story of Justin Zimmer here; https://seahawksdraftblog.com/justin-zimmer-dl-ferris-state-is-one-to-watch
Mock Draft v 3671
Round 1 (1) GERMAIN IFEDI, OT/OG
Round 2 (1) CONNER McGOVERN, OG
Round 3 (2) BRONSON KAUFUSI, DE / TYLER ERVIN, RB
Round 4 (1) TRAVIS FEENEY, LB
Round 5 (1) DEVON CAJUSTE, WR
Round 6 (1) JAMES BRADBERRY, CB
Round 7 (2) ANTHONY ZETTEL, DE / STEPHANE NEMBOT, OT
I thought it was an interesting notion that Seattle would try to patch the pass rush this year, then dive head long into the rich 2017 NFL draft looking for pass rushers. I think this might be the case, but as we know, you need to keep stacking positions year after year, incase the injury bug hits a position group or singular position (such as DE). The only pick I have supreme confidence Seattle will actually select is McGovern. IF they came away with 6-7 of the guys I listed, I would be “over the moon” for this draft.
I think Feeney will be round 2 or 3. Lots of buzz after his testing
Since we have been concentrating on physical skills lately, I want to offer something about technique.
The OL talent coming out of the spread offenses in college are lacking with NFL technique. It created a general disrespect towards players with great technique that happens to be the wrong technique for the NFL.
While those technical skills may be worthless for n NFL OL, the ability to learn and master whatever technique you are being taught is a skill that players either have or not.
A player from a good college program had coaches teaching him the technique they want to see on the field. Failing to learn and display that (wrong) technique on the field after 2-3 years of training is reason for concern (Clark…). On the other hand, a player showing perfect technique (Martin) even if it’s not the right technique, will learn and perform a new technique faster and better than his counterparts.
Being able to learn and implement a proper technique is a physical and mental skill. If a player did not exhibit that skill at college, he may not suddenly develop it at the pros. If a player is technically inferior to other members of the OL he played in – do not expect him to be much better at in in the pros.
Just keep it in mind while we hunt for the best physical skills we can find…
I agree. It is why I am not a fan of Clark. He was a four year starter and still is poor with technique. He was able to get by on his superior athleticism. But, he will have a much harder time being successful if he cannot learn and he has not shown that he can.
I am one of the few here that cannot get behind a Clark pick. And well-said Eran.
Very few people are behind drafting Clark in round one
Let me clarify, I don’t want him in the 2nd either, and maybe even the 3rd. The sentiment may have lessened recently, but there was a time on this board when many posters were supporting a Clark pick and mocking him in their ‘drafts’
Rob if the Hawks take ifedi in round 1 and Clark is sitting there at 56 do you think the Hawks might take him? Move him to guard and keep ifedi at tackle have two freak athletes on the o line because Clark probably can’t be worse than Britt that could make the o line dangerous especially if they pick up a center in later rounds.
For this to happen I assume guys like kafusi and Henry are off the board and the Hawks feel that they can double dip without a drop off in talent
I think it’s highly unlikely Clark lasts until #56. If it happens — maybe. But I sense they’ll want to go OL-DL or DL-OL with their first two picks.
I think this is an excellent point, Eran, and is exactly why I’m not excited about Clark in the early rounds. If he could be had in the 5th round or later, then maybe I could get behind the pick. This seems unlikely, given all that’s been written. As has been pointed out previously, JS often drafts a year in advance of need. Last year, three interior linemen were taken and now have a year invested being indoctrinated in the Cable-way. I look for certainly Glowinski, but possibly the other two as well contributing this year. With that in mind, I can definitely see DL in the first, if the right player falls to them, and OL in the second and perhaps again later. Within the framework of shoring up the trenches, it allows them to take BPA to an extent.
If you ask Tom Cable, he considers all O lineman coming out of college as projects that he needs to blow up and start again.
I’ve been thinking that the last couple of 1st round picks( Irvin and Bigg Carp) kind of always had this attitude with the Hawks that they needed to prove to everyone they were worth were they were picked. It’s kind of a lot of responsibility when you think about it. Irvin always praised the Hawks for taking a chance on him and even carpenter eventually got it and played well enough to earn a nice free agent contract. I don’t think you will see them take any heralded prospects in the first round if they stay there. I honestly could see McGovern being selected in the first and he having that prove it chip on his shoulder. Or them trading back because they can get him at 40 and he still has that stigma of the first player drafted this year to a team that had oline problems last year. Mentally tuff and gritt
Good points, Josh. It’s another element of the Seahawks mental universe that we can literally only extrapolate about. And it does look like McGovern has the toughness and energy to handle the pressure. I’d happily take him at 26 if the circumstances required, but it would be a huge preference to wait.
The status of being a First Rounder is accompanied by a significant paycheck, and a nice contract. The Seahawks are currently paying a bit over 6.2 million to their entire O-Line, so a 2 million dollar rookie has some real issues to contend with.
Given that the Seahawks have been so frugal with their O-Line money til now, it seems a stretch to put a First Rounder in that mix. The Trade Back scenario offers the opportunity to grab the guy at a spot where the money becomes much more in line with their apparent budget. He’s also going to be paid closer to what the rest of the unit earns, keeping resentments at bay.
Add in the unconventional analytics that the Seahawks employ to identify later round prospects and it seems reasonable to predict that they won’t pick an O-Lineman in the first round.
You think about those years where they actually used their 1st round pick they went into the respective offseason with an agenda. 2011: the defense was starting to take shape and they wanted to address the run game, 1st round pick James carpenter, this pick proves they wanted to bolster their running game as Bigg Carp was considered by some the best run blocker in the draft, 2012: Bruce Irvin, pass rush pass rush, they went and got in their opinion the best pass rusher in the draft. Maybe they like “the best” at a certain area moniker, haha, stick with that, trade with Baltimore. Our first this year and 1st next year and 3rd rounder next year and get the “best backer” in the draft with Jack or “the fastest” linebacker in the draft with Darren Lee. I could see Baltimore making a move if they are going oline like everyone thinks, they could trade to 26 and still get Spriggs or Ifedy who many believe is baby Oswmele who they drafted. The Ravens were very close to being a contender last year just like always and injuries decimated that team. That being said, they have a very competitive squad, trading down wouldn’t surprise me. Ozzie is a wheeler and dealer. Interesting
There is ZERO chance Baltimore would trade away the rights to Myles Jack or Darren Lee. They need exactly this type of player in their defense. They need youth. I just can’t see a trade, especially if Jack were available (even though I think he is a top 5 pick).
You’re right, Charlie. Much as I’d love either of those guys, Baltimore won’t make that deal. But I really like the idea of trying to find a trade up.
A slightly more plausible Trade Partner with an early pick could be the Jets. It was suggested earlier that the Seahawks offer them this year’s 1st & 2nd to obtain Rankins (theory being that Jets are set at D-Line and wouldn’t need him….).
It’s getting closer and closer to draft day and so I’ve just been kind of going over scenarios in my head about what the Hawks will do. Here’s another I thought of and I’m sure it would make most 12’s happy. Staying in the vein of “the best” moniker with the first round pick. What if they went 26 Ifedy, 56 McGovern, and 90 Dahl? Starting line for 2016:
Gilliam Ifedy Mcovern Dahl Webb. They addressed the Dline with bringing back Clemons and they said the oline would be a priority. They would come away with “the best interior oline” from this draft. All these dudes are 9 plus broad with the 31,9,27 explosive score the Hawks like. That would be crazy if that’s how they start next season. Look out Aaron Donald and Kawan short, Seattle would be just as athletic as those clowns! Haha, getting so pumped for the draft!
2 questions: 1) do the Seahawks draft on OL R1?; 2) if so, who?
1) The best defense in football can always get better, and adding an elite player such as Johnathon Bullard, A’Shawn Robinson, or even rolling the dice with Robert Nkemdiche or the injured but brilliant Jaylon Smith, would see the rich get richer; however, our OL play has been woeful at worst or unacceptable at best, and must be addressed. Not only does our offense need to go high octane, but more important, we have to keep Russell Wilson healthy. As much as a top OG or C would help in R1, help at those positions can be had R2 or R3; therefore OT in R1 it is.
2) So which OT tackle do we select, Germain Ifedi or Jason Briggs? If Pete and John are virtually certain that Gary Gilliam is a solid LT for the next few years, then it makes sense to go with Germain, who can plug and play at RT and also could play LG. But I look at this a little differently… a RT/LG can be had in R2, or in most years in late R1; a LT with elite pass protection skills almost never falls into late R1, this year being the exception, so I you have to go with Spriggs. You can create a good run blocking OL with good coaching, but you cannot create a good pass pro LT, because those guys are born with the quicks, or not. The big Hoosier will be a Seahawk in about three weeks.
I love this outside the box, hedge thinking, James!
If an OL has to be re-coached by Cable anyway, and Spriggs is so athletic…
That was pretty much my thought process, too, James. But I’ve since had a change of heart. You keep hearing how they want tough, nasty, bullies, and that they will always be concerned with a tough running game. I think Spriggs has perhaps the most value at that spot, being one of the few true LTs in the class, but if they believe in Gilliam, I don’t think there is a spot for Spriggs on this OL. Think there may be better/more ready/more physical choices for RT, and he doesn’t seem like a good fit for G.
Unless something crazy happens with a different OL prospect, I’d guess our first pick will either be Ifedi, Coleman, Whitehair, or not an OL at all. With DT/DE being most likely. Rob says they won’t do it, and he’s probably right, but you wonder what would happen if a very good corner is still there for us.
I think the thing that’s fun about this draft is the Hawks have kind of done everything. Started from nothing then stripped it down to the studs, hell they laced the building with dynamite and blew up the foundation. Started over with drafting a high caliber LT in the top ten, deafting an Elite QB, put together a championship roster, trade for high priced high reward talents(lynch, harvin, and Graham),win a SB, reload a bit and go to second one, now it seems they have their core intact and starting again with oline. Right? They could go any direction and it would make sense because they have a pretty good batting average with a lot of different moves but I think everyone wants to see them turn a perennial weak group of the team in the oline into a strength by adding a ton of talent in the first few rounds. I don’t see it. They are a defensive minded, run first, explosive pass play, solid special teams kind of team in that order. I think they will address the squad with that hierarchy in mind like they always do. I think they would take Myles Jack or jalen Ramsey number one over tunsil if they needed all three positions and had the #1 overall pick. I see them taking a defensive player in round one even trading up for someone they love on defense or trading back for value on a run blocking oliner in the second. I think it will be up to how many of what I like to call NBPA(not best player available)picks are taken before them. Like 3 or 4 QB’s, 2rbs, 2safeties or maybe a TE in front of them would be great for Seattle because they won’t target any of those position groups in the first round so it kind of tilts their draft board where they can move up less expensive to a later pick because other teams are drafting for need and not taking the best player and that drops better players farther back in the draft for smart teams like Seattle to pounce on. If there are 7 teams that draft player positions you don’t even have on your board for round one before your first pick, magic can happen and Seattle sneaks out with Darren lee or Sheldon Rankins with a huge grin on their faces ear to ear(Aaron Rodgers or Dan Marino kind of thing) this hasn’t happened to them where a special player falls in their lap, maybe even take a poke at jaylon smith? Haha, just being wishful but give him a redshirt year and next hopefully Sokoli is ready for the lime light and come out in 2017 with the most athletic center in the league and a badass OLB from previous drafts? That’s awesome, maybe they take chances this year with trading next year’s picks and move way up because they have in mind they are getting 2 starters next year and they will have a few compensatory picks as well. It would take a pair of big hairy cajoles to use a 1st round pick on a red shirt with the possibility of not playing at all but they are more bold then most teams. I wanna see some rad moves this year! Haha
Would would be best case scenario is if an awesome DL fell in Rd. 1
Sokoli pans out to be C of future.
And we draft a G/C in McGovern in Rd. 2, who both beats out Britt at LG this season, and could be a hedge for Sokoli/Lewis going forward.
Let’s say Britt was beaten out at LG, maybe they could make him a blocking TE, filling another critical need on the Seahawks….. which has been substandard the last year or so.
I think he’d be great holding a clipboard.
Haha, he has had a pretty tumultuous start to his career hasn’t he? He has defenetely been the whipping boy for the oline’s ineffectiveness. How’s this for a start to your NFL career? Drafted by the super bowl winning team with the expectation to come immediately start and play NFL caliber Super Bowl contending offensive line play on the most brutal and physical running team in a division littered with defensive line all pros and stud run stuffers? Then lose in the SB on the last play? Then after year one regarded as the worst starting pass blocking RT tackle in the league you are asked to switch positions to LG where you are asked to block Aaron Donald, linval Joseph, Kawan Short, and Calaias Camble multiple times a year to make it back to the SB. Then this year seen as the main reason the oline was underachieving? Woof! I really want to see how Britt responds, I seemed to remember after a tuff couple of years for Bigg Carp he finally got it and after having to rotate at LG he rose above and played well the last couple years of his contract. Grit right?
Great insight as always, Rob. You’ve really narrowed the crowed OL draft field IMO.
I’d be curious how many all-pro/pro-bowl OLs meet SEAs OL testing numbers/preferences.
Joe Thomas, Andrew Whitworth, Joe Staley, Tyron Smith, Trent Williams, Terron Armstead, Jason Peters, Ryan Clady, Taylor Lewan and Lane Johnson all had a +9″ broad jump.
Interesting that Ryan Clady might be on the trading block in Denver. 2 + 2 = 4 ?
If they trade for him they have to pick up that contract unless he agrees to restructure. They are not gonna pick his contract up because its terrible. Wait for him to get cut
They’ve shown no desire to add a big name veteran tackle. I think there’s almost no chance they move for a guy who’s been even less reliable than Russell Okung in terms of injuries.
16 of the 41 OL receiving all-pro votes the past two years have met the 9-0 broad jump criterion.
Interesting stat. Be fun to have a broader spectrum, like the last five years All Pros.
Anybody know what Botinio’s numbers were?
Bitonio made the cut, BJ’ing 9-6, I believe.
Thesis Worthy.
12 PhD candidate.
Dr. Robert Stanton
Wait until you see Monday’s piece…
Can’t wait!
What H M Abdou said.
Way off topic, but just having a look at the raiders off season, and seeing what a fantastic job the GM has done there.
One thing that i thought may have been a problem for them, is that the spending spree would turn around to bite them in a couple of years, when guys like Mack and Carr were set to be signed.
Not the case, Osemele, Irvin, Sean Smith, Rodney Hudson, and Crabtree, can all be cut prior to the 2018 season with no dead money implications.
They own the #14 pick, but I’m tipping the pick in the 20’s for the next years if they have another solid draft.
Jack Conklin would be a great pick at 14 if he’s still there.
They’ve done a really nice job rebuilding that roster. It’s funny, thinking back to the draft, to how Derek Carr was disappointed that he lasted so long without being picked. In the end, he wound up staying local, going to a team that knew what it was doing, and playing on a roster with good, improving talent. I’m sure Carr is thankful now with how things turned out.
That was the 2014 draft when Carr was disappointed that he didn’t go in the 1st round. Bortles, Manziel, and Bridgewater went ahead of him (in the 1st).
Agree completely Nathan. Reggie Mackenzie comes from the same background as JS and it shows in the type of players they draft and the contracts he signs. I think they win the AFC W this year if the following 2 things happen.
-Derrick Carr continues to progress as the rest of the roster is loaded
-Denver does not figure out the QB situation. They have the best team still but you can’t win with a Rookie or Snachez IMO. I still have a feeling Elway gets Kap who could excel in Kubiaks system. If they do Denver’s D should still carry them.
Agree completely.
If the rumors are true do you think kaepernick solves Denver situation?
He would give them scary potential, but did he solve SFs QB situation?
A lot depends on whether Elway and the Denver coaching staff can completely retrain Kaep (especially mentally), while allowing him to utilize his athleticism. Hasn’t happened since Harbaugh. Now if Elway personally gets involved, that would be interesting. If you think about it, Elway had similar big arm+athleticism as Kaep, knows how to hone it.
I am hoping for a total Broncos offensive collapse and buyers regret, egg on Elway’s face for taking Kaep.
Yes he does he just needs the right supporting cast, he is similar to cam newton, he is a front runner but plays off confidence in his team as a whole
For this year. It’s gotta be better than starting Sanchez, right? However, I don’t think it would exclude them from picking a QB in the draft.
Rob a guy that seems to becoming a lot more popular here on SDB because of his combine performance is Spriggs. Do you see him as a legitimate option of the Hawks?
I think Pete has come out and said the LT spot is basically Gilliam’s spot to loose and I like that. If that is the case I don’t see Spriggs as being a typical physical road grading RT that Cable normally likes and I am not sure I see him as an ideal Guard because he just not seem to play physical. That being said he has Evan Mathis like body type so perhaps he could move inside.
What are your thoughts on him? Is he strictly a LT prospect or do you like him in other OL spots for the Hawks?
My two favorite OL prospects in this draft )Coleman, Ifedi)are nasty run blockers who could make ideal LG or RT in our system. Does Spriggs have this potential as well?
The thing with Spriggs is that he is very athletic and that’s what the Hawks like but his game strength is lacking and unfortunately might be the drawback on him for the hawks. that all being said, he will most likely be the 1st pick by the hawks.
Pauline:
“Indiana’s Jason Spriggs is starting to gain momentum and several personnel people believe he’s a lock to be selected in the bottom third of round one. Many around the league believe Spriggs is the best pure left tackle in the draft not named Laremy Tunsil. Spriggs’ athleticism is matched by few at the tackle position. He touched 35 inches in the vertical jump and timed 7.37 seconds in the 3-cone drill during his Pro Day last week after tipping the scales at 301 pounds. Scouts agree Spriggs does not have the natural bulk or power compared to the top tackles in the draft and that affects his run blocking. However, most scouts believe this is easily correctable and will come as he physically matures and works in the environment of an NFL weight training program.”
Bottom third….
So around #26…
He is certainly a legit option Trevor. Could start at right tackle and maybe even guard.
They didn’t select Joel Bitonio who similarly tested very well so he’s not a lock. But he’s an option.
On an unrelated note How about Leicester in the Barclays!!!!! 7 Points clear with only 6 matches remaining.
I can’t believe I was up early on a Sunday AM watching Leicester and Southampton but I don’t watch to miss out on one of the greatest sports stories of our generation.
***Note ot all SDB community if you are a sports fan and have any interest in soccer on even just under dog sports stories check on the English Premiere soccer league this week and a club call Leicester. They are on the verge of winning the league championship as there is no playoff. It is an amazing story of a team coming together and just everything clicking perfectly for a whole season allowing DAVID to beat not one but many GOLIATH’S.
They are fun to watch. I missed part of the first half, but when I woke up the first thing I did was turn on the TV to watch. It will be another early match for us here in Seattle, as they play on the road against Sunderland at 5:30am on Sunday. Tottenham hosts Man U.
Very cool journey. Got to love their coach and his calm, humble demeanor. His ‘only focussed on the next match’ vibe isn’t unique, but feels almost Carroll-esqe
Rob, if you see this, curious how most English fans feel about what Leicester is doing at this point. Is it the great underdog, let’s get behind these lads story, or is it a feeling of ‘put the interlopers back in their place’?
99.9% of English sports fans are thoroughly behind Leicester.
It’s without doubt the greatest team sporting achievement and story of my lifetime. I can’t think of anything that comes close.
Rob, I don’t get to watch any EPL, but is the Jamie Vardy racism stuff just overblown here? I haven’t really been behind Leicester because of some of those rumors.
I wonder if Sir Ridley Scott will direct the biopic?
Surely it’s a story that’s going to have those kind of legs. Maybe an interesting story for Guy Ritchie to direct instead? Just cuz Invictis wasn’t all that good (sorry, Sir R. Scott).
Seahawks winning the SB is pretty close 😛
Interesting take on Stanley’s draft stock by Pauline:
“Ronnie Stanley of Notre Dame is considered by most as a top 10 lock, but not all teams agree. Several scouts tell me there’s real concern about Stanley’s athleticism and most feel he won’t be able to handle the left tackle position in the NFL, which is causing his stock to drop. Others feel Stanley is just an overrated player. With the likes of Shon Coleman, Le’Raven Clark and Caleb Benenoch available during the draft’s second day, lesser prospects who could turn into starting left tackles in the NFL, there’s an opinion around the league Stanley could fall out of the draft’s initial 10 picks and into the middle of round one.”
I think we’ll see a first round rush on pass rushers (Ogbah, Bullard, Spence etc.) seeing as the depth there isn’t nearly as good.
How does Stanley athletically compare with the rest of the league? That Notre Dame o-line was the only unit that really shut down Aaron Donald during his senior campaign.
Looks like Rob’s been hiding all the mad money he makes off SDB in offshore accounts again.
http://panamapapers.sueddeutsche.de/articles/56febff0a1bb8d3c3495adf4/
Busted! 🙂
I figured you’d appreciate that. Thanks for all the hard work! Best draft analysis out there. Love how you look at every angle objectivly.
@scohenPI: New/old #Seahawks DE Chris Clemons tells @710ESPNSeattle Richard Sherman, Michael Bennett recruited him to come back following his release.
@scohenPI: Clemons tells @710ESPNSeattle part of his role will be to mentor Frank Clark, help him get in playbook and understand what’s asked of him.
Someone at Field Gulls relayed a great story about Clemons. How once when Sherman returned to the huddle crowing and celebrating, Clemons said “SHUT UP. PLAY BETTER.”
And that is the attitude we want to see across the roster.
Eagles sign Wisniewski, in case anyone was still holding out any hope.
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000650139/article/philadelphia-eagles-signing-ol-stefen-wisniewski
Would have been nice to anchor C with someone good for years. Not gonna happen with Cable. It’s all about building a new line.
Walter Football Mock from today. It is amazing since they started getting info from Tony Pauline how the players they mock seem a lot more like potential Hawks picks.
Rd #1 Ogbah
Rd#2 Bullard
Rd#3 Cody Whitehair
Rd#3 Comp Shon Coleman
This draft almost seems impossible to me but if it happened it would be a dream scenario. I think it would be PC / JS best ever and that is saying something. I love every pick the only way it could get better would be if Rankins fell to take over Ogbah in Rd #1.
Walter is way way off base here! No way in hell this could happen. That’s four first round talents.
Can’t argue with you there I would be happy with even 2 of those guys. It is interesting that all 4 players have been talked about a ton on this blog though.
Well, this time of year I think there’s a tendency to think half the players in the draft have to go in the first round, but obviously they can’t. Somebody has to fall into rounds 2 and 3.
More importantly, I hope they stay the hell away from Ogbah. I’ll take a guy with less upside that has a motor that never stops every day of the week.
It’s Charlie Campbell’s Mock.
1 – Ogbah
2 – Bullard
3 – Whitehair
3 – Shon Coleman
4 – Max Tuerk
5 – Demarcus Robinson
McGovern was not drafted through the 5th round.
That would be shocking… If those players were avaliable there…
Bullard will go Looooong before 56. Might even go before 26. Cody Whitehair early 2nd round at the LATEST. May even go late first round.
That would be an absurdly amazing draft. Quite honestly, it could rival the 2012 Draft (sans the sheer value of RW, himself).
And there it is. ‘Bama RB Derrick Henry an official VMAC visitor.
No, this is not coming directly from him as Josh Norris said.
Walters previous mock was better.
Rd1. Bullard
Rd2. Ifedi
Rd3. Gaurd from Stanford. Blanking on his name.
That would be a dream draft. Maybe end RD 3 with Irvins replacement. You could go BPA rounds 4-7.
Great. Another injury prone used up Alabama running back goes early in the draft. This time to Seattle. Man I am hoping/praying Seattle does take this guy.
Entirely possible, almost expecting JSPC to go BPA/weird. If Cable hates everyone in the draft, he’ll take guys lower down, skip the o-linemen we have been watching closely.
I am against Derrick Henry for a lot of reasons. Especially with the first pick. I am against a RB in the first four rounds.
BYT: Derrick Henry had 602 career carries at Alabama. He had 395 carries his final season with the Tide.
I think Turbin had over 500, FWIW.
They’ve done statistical studies that disprove the college workload as a risk of future injury. It’s a myth.
I’m against Henry because be simply isn’t that good, nor is he a good fit for this offense.
Nor does he fill an urgent need.
I posted a long comment this morning, saw it posted correctly, then checked back and it was gone. If there was anything objectionable it escaped my notice, but if so I would like to know what it was so I can correct it.
Never mind. Posted on other thread. Operator error–Guess I need more coffee…
Lot of comments on here and maybe I missed his name, but what are your thoughts on Sheldon Day as a third round pick? Very versatile DL that can play multiple positions along the DL. Just was wondering your thoughts
George, I love him as a Round 2 pick up. But I’m more bullish on him than others, including Rob.
If we picked Sheldon Day, wouldn’t he just be a carbon copy of Jordan Hill? Seahawks tend to like DT weighing around 310-330 pounds to stop the run. So Day’s role would just be a rotational pass rusher. We would rather use our Round 3 pick for an OLB. I wouldn’t mind if we pick a WR in Round 3 also.
I had him as a rd.3-4. Haven’t looked at him in a while. The question is whether they need someone who is capable of starting very soon. Not just a rotational backup. Chris Jones, J. Hargrave, Willie Henry, H.Ridgeway all possibly in the same part of the board.
In case you missed it, here is a great analysis of the insanely inconsistent Ogbah:
http://www.sbnation.com/2016/4/4/11280816/2016-nfl-draft-emmanuel-ogbah-breakdown-oklahoma-state-pass-rusher?_ga=1.5256561.399045224.1456022667
This makes me even more leery. Very high risk.
Really good read and really shows why he might be available at 26. I will say this; I like the idea of drafting Ogbah knowing he’d initially be a 3rd down guy and gets to learn from the likes of Bennett, Avril, and Clemons. 3 absolute pros. Now, by all accounts Ogbah is a good kid, so perhaps getting him around 3 consummate professionals might be a way to get through to him.
I think the tools are too intriguing to pass on personally. After all, very few guys available at 26 really have star potential. I truly think Ogbah does, but that isn’t without some risk to it.
Good find Steele!
The Seahawks FO is going to start paying you soon to not publish certain hypotheses and formulations on the internet, Rob. Fascinating write up, reasoning and analysis.