Seahawks Draft Blog

Why the Seahawks need to commit to being the team they say they want to be

October 15, 2024 / / 0 Comments

The Seattle Seahawks are spending $41.5m on receivers this season.

That’s 16.5% of their entire cap space. No other position on the team is carrying a higher percentage.

Here’s the top-five:

Wide receiver — 16.5%
D-line — 14.6%
Quarterback — 10.9%
Linebacker — 10.6%
Secondary — 10%

In comparison, the offensive line is only taking up 8.8% of the cap.

These numbers will obviously change in time. If Charles Cross receives a contract extension in the next 18 months, that O-line number will go up dramatically.

Yet the fact receiver is currently the most expensive position on the team speaks to Seattle’s identity crisis.

For a long time now they’ve seemingly been intending to build a physical football team. John Schneider once talked about becoming the bullies again, following the LOB era. Schneider was mentored by Ron Wolf — a GM whose main philosophy was to commit to the trenches.

When Schneider and Pete Carroll took over the intention was to try and emulate Pittsburgh and Baltimore — at the time the two most physically imposing teams in the NFL.

I don’t think anything changed switching from Carroll to Mike Macdonald. He’s from Baltimore. He knows the emphasis they place on toughness.

Macdonald has spoken about the running game being integral to the identity of the team and the philosophy. Ryan Grubb says the same. The Seahawks didn’t appoint the defensive coordinator from the Baltimore Ravens to run a finesse football team.

Yet despite having ambitions to be tough, physical and built in the image of the AFC North, the Seahawks continue to appear finesse.

The offensive line being as bad as it is isn’t helping. Here’s the thing though — PFF has the Seahawks as the sixth worst pass blocking team in the league. Their run blocking grade is 16th — right in the middle. Based on that small sample, they’d be better off running the ball more. Yet they’ve had more than one half or full game this year where the run has been a total afterthought.

I think this is partly due to the construction of the team. When you pay D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett a combined cap hit of $33.9m, then throw in the 20th overall pick into the mix, there’s a pressure for that investment to pay off. Not only that, there’s everything that comes with not feeding your receivers. The media will point out when players aren’t getting targets. Receivers, more than any other position, are conscious about how they’re being used.

In the meantime, so much investment at this position instead of the offensive line is also directly impacting your ability to function as a passing offense, because the line is playing so badly.

The end result is a very expensive arsenal of weapons, featuring within a streaky offense. Meanwhile, the O-line features two cheap struggling guards, a third-stringer at right tackle and a center coming off a serious injury that they clearly felt they had no choice but to take a chance on.

Team-building isn’t straight forward and there’s nothing ideal about it. If you or I, god forbid, took over the running of a team tomorrow — you wouldn’t be able to just say ‘we’re taking linemen early and often’. Would you turn down a great player with a far higher grade at a different position, to force-pick a guard instead, purely on a point of principal? Of course not.

There isn’t an offensive lineman who would’ve been noticeably better than Devon Witherspoon or Jaxon Smith-Njigba in round one last year. The year prior, they did take an offensive lineman with the #9 pick.

This is something to consider when criticising the team. It’s not always as simple as committing to a position group in the draft. You are beholden to what’s available when you pick.

However, there have been some odd decisions recently. Why pay Noah Fant — effectively more of a pass-catching threat than a blocking tight end — if you don’t intend to feature a dynamic pass-catcher at the position? Why did they pass on a cluster of reasonable center prospects that have been available beyond round one over the years, instead choosing to have a different starter virtually every season? Why be aggressive in a trade for a box safety but not as aggressive in the free agent market for offensive linemen — especially given the annual problems with the unit?

It’s not even really about what’s happened in the past. The most important thing is what happens next. Are they going to do anything differently?

For example, they face a decision in the off-season over Metcalf. The top receivers are signing new contracts worth between $30-35m a year at the moment. Can you seriously make that level of investment in him?

They have to do something because his cap hit in 2025 is $31.8m. They basically have to pay him or trade him. So what do you do? Can you legitimately build an identity based around quality and physicality in the trenches, while also paying so much at receiver?

When Joe Hortiz and Jim Harbaugh took over the Chargers, they made it clear what they were going to do. They let Mike Williams walk and traded away Keenan Allen. They prioritised keeping Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack instead. They then drafted a right tackle with a top-five pick and were happy to add a cheap receiver in round two.

The plan to turn LA into another Harbaugh machine is very much underway and isn’t going to be knocked off course. Whether they succeed or not, I bet by 2025 the Chargers will look like Michigan and the 49ers under Harbaugh. They will be the opposite of finesse.

Are the Seahawks willing to do the same? Are they prepared to make some difficult decisions and shift investment into the offensive line and prioritise that area? Will they speculate to accumulate up front in a way they’ve been hesitant to do so — with the GM even admitting in a now infamous statement that interior linemen are often ‘over-drafted and over-paid’?

Part of me wonders if that was a smokescreen, given it emerged they had their eye on JC Latham in the draft (a player who could’ve easily ended up at guard, at least this year, having already signed George Fant to play right tackle in Abe Lucas’ absence). Regardless, they’re going to have to do more this off-season to rectify the major problem area they face.

Maybe there’s a way to keep Metcalf and still fix the O-line? Possibly. They’re tight against the cap though. What are the other solutions?

I don’t think it’s beyond the realms of possibility there’s a shift to a cheaper quarterback. It’s hardly the most outrageous suggestion that Schneider isn’t the biggest backer of Geno Smith. Lest we forget the ‘he’s the starter until he isn’t’ comment from a few months ago. Dre’Mont Jones might be playing his way into a painful financial divorce for the team. How much longer will Tyler Locket play on for? You can’t justify another year of Noah Fant in his current role (I’d trade him now if possible — it’d be best for both parties).

You can do a lot with $30m. You can do even more with $30m and a decent draft pick or two. These are things you have to consider. What is the best way to establish your identity and create a winner? Is it extending Metcalf or investing elsewhere?

It’s not just the O-line that needs work either. Clearly the defense is still badly lacking in certain areas too.

It’s why I think plodding along isn’t really a solution. The team in more or less its current form has shown it can be an eight or nine win outfit under Carroll and it’s trending that way again at 3-3 under Macdonald. You can do that every year if you want, or you can try and change things.

My feeling is if you want to be a trenches team built in the image of the old Pittsburgh and Baltimore outfits, do it. If like Harbaugh in LA you want to be built to win up front, shape your roster that way.

There’s nothing worse than intending to do something and then positioning yourself to do the opposite. At times the Seahawks appear to have a really muddled identity and I think this is the main reason why. They want to make a pumpkin pie and they’ve bought the ingredients for a chocolate cake.

If they turn around in the off-season and say, ‘right — it’s time to sort these lines out once and for all’ and commit to doing it, however painful that might be at other positions, I’m all for it.

I don’t see the Seahawks ever lifting a Lombardi Trophy in their current design. I can’t imagine a Smith-to-Metcalf Super Bowl winning touchdown moment. I think if they’re ever going to contend they’re going to need three key ingredients:

1. A really good O-line
2. At least one game-wrecking defender
3. A quarterback capable of winning the lot

It might be time to accept that currently, they have some good players. They have some players — Ken Walker for example — who could be great. But they don’t necessarily have sufficient quality in the areas they need to create their preferred identity, or win big in the NFL.

Changing things can take time. So why wait any longer than you have to?

Scouting notes week seven: Quinn Ewers returns, Donovan Jackson & Iowa center impress again, TE’s excel and more

October 13, 2024 / / 0 Comments

Here’s what stood out to me in week seven:

— Quinn Ewers looked incredibly rusty in his return to action for Texas. His accuracy was off all day and it’s a credit to the rest of the team that they still dominated Oklahoma.

It started poorly and never really got going for Ewers. On a 3rd and 14 on his first drive he did well to step into the pocket but then fired way over an open receiver. It led to a gift of an interception for the deep defender. An awful throw.

He then misfired on a third down on his second drive — showing uncharacteristic impatience and rushing an inaccurate throw short to a wide open receiver down the middle of the field. If he keeps his composure there, it’s an easy touchdown.

You kept waiting for the rust to be knocked off and his best form to emerge, especially since Oklahoma offered so little resistance. It never came.

This game alone won’t impact evaluations but teams will be eager to see him play a lot better. He gets a game’s grace after returning from injury. Next week he plays Georgia and then the week after he travels to Vanderbilt. It’s no exaggeration to suggest those two games might define his stock — as well as any potential run in the playoffs.

— Wisconsin left tackle Jack Nelson is an underrated offensive lineman we’ve talked about a lot. I thought he did a really good job against Rutgers yesterday, again highlighting why he’s worthy of our attention.

Nelson dominated the edge rushers he faced showing off great footwork to protect the blindside of his quarterback. His footwork was textbook, he never lost balance and you could see how controlled his hands and body were as they worked together.

However, he isn’t a left tackle. Later in the game Rutgers started testing him with some inside moves and he struggled. He did a passable job at trying to recover and regain an angle but you could see Rutgers were targeting him with this tactic. It suggests he oversets to the edge and isn’t a natural to play the blindside.

I’m not overly concerned by this though because I think his home is at guard. When he can play square, attach himself to a defender and finish, he’s very good. I think he has plus potential kicking inside and could be a value pick on day two.

— While Miami’s Cam Ward has shown in recent games that old habits die hard, Saturday’s game between Alabama and South Carolina was a further sign that people talking up Jalen Milroe as a high first round pick need to chill their beans.

He is still showing no signs of an ability to sit in the pocket, process and move the chains. He had an awful, jittery overthrow on a screen pass that was almost picked off when facing a little pressure. He struggles on third downs in the pocket. He continues to play in a ‘one read and run’ style that is not transferable.

Milroe gave up a safety drifting back into his own end zone then throwing at the feet of an offensive lineman with no receiver in the area. It was terrible awareness. He had a horrendous interception before half-time — throwing into coverage with what should’ve been the last play of the half, gifting South Carolina a field goal after they returned the ball into range.

He then threw another bloody awful interception at the start of the fourth quarter — leaning back, lofting the ball to the back of the end zone. There are two defenders clearly waiting to pick the ball off. This is just bad quarterback play.

Why were people touting a place him for the top-10? Just because he ran around well against Georgia? His only passing touchdown in the game was a wide open easy throw on a blown coverage.

There are things to like about Milroe. He has excellent character, he’s clearly a brilliant athlete and as a runner he can be really dynamic. His arm strength is good and it enables him to make plays downfield. However, he is not showing technical improvement like many are suggesting, he shows no evidence of any progressions, pocket savvy or technical quality. He is a one-read passer who will set off running if the read isn’t open.

Milroe requires major work for the next level and will need time operating with a great offensive leader. He warrants a day two grade for his physical upside but he’s a long way off all of the first round and top-10 chatter some in draft media were chucking out there.

From the same game, I thought Kyle Lennard — who we’ve talked about before — had a terrific game. He slipped inside to push the lineman back using power. He attacked the edge with quickness and burst. He’s comfortable mushing his rush to play read/react. Kennard has done as much as anyone to upgrade his stock this year and he should be in the day two conversation pre-testing and Senior Bowl. He finished with two sacks and three TFL’s. TJ Sanders also commanded plenty of respect from Alabama and the undersized Tonka Hemingway had a nice sack. South Carolina has some quality players on defense.

— Iowa center Logan Jones had another extremely impressive game against Washington. He dominated the interior, using his low center of gravity and explosive power to attack opponents off the snap. I’ve spoken to NFL evaluators about what they look for in a center and the common refrain is they want someone who shoots his hands quickly and plays in attack mode. That’s what Jones does. He drove UW defenders off the line and a lot of Kaleb Johnson’s best runs were up the gut. He also shows off a strong back to drop the anchor. Jones is definitely one to watch. I have him graded in round two.

Exceptional running back Kaleb Johnson also had another blistering day. He is silky smooth and almost glides when he gets an opening. He snakes through gaps with great agility, has the hip work to create big gains and he can cut and explode upfield. He also has the size and desire to finish runs. Johnson is a terrific playmaker and the clear RB2 in this draft with legit big-time NFL potential. I think he’s a top-50 prospect in the 2025 class.

— Penn State tight end Tyler Warren has been on our radar for weeks and we’ve discussed how he’d played his way into fringe first round consideration. He flashed again on Saturday, recording 224 receiving yards in an overtime win against USC.

He’s used virtually as a #1 target. Drew Allar constantly looks for him. It does need to be mentioned that they kept running the same pick/screen to Warren that USC had no idea how to stop. He got a lot of joy from a concept the NFL wouldn’t be toiling with to this extent. However, he can also move around the formation to find soft spots in coverage. He’s a good athlete and he’s tremendously reliable with his hands — making several highlight-reel catches this season.

His touchdown was an incredible contested grab on a 40-yard trick-play downfield. He finished every run after the catch with a thumping hit. Warren also showed agility weaving through traffic. Penn State line him up under center too for throwing trickery or direct snaps/runs. Only Ashton Jeanty has played as consistently well as Warren this season.

Allar threw three interceptions in another performance that just reminded me of my favourite comp — Mike Glennon. The first pick was a poor throw into coverage over the middle. He doesn’t ID the defender and it’s a really poor decision. The second pick — again I don’t understand what he’s reading. He threw into traffic, it’s a tipped pass and it’s picked off. You can’t make these throws. The third interception was a poor attempt at a Hail Mary that didn’t reach the end zone.

In fairness to Allar, he did make two huge 4th down conversions late in the game to keep Penn State alive. Yet his touchdowns were only the double pass to Warren who did all the work in the end zone and a check-down to Nicholas Singleton on a blown coverage. I find it difficult to muster much enthusiasm for Allar and still view him as a day three pick.

— Garrett Nussmeier is a baller. He made some mistakes against Ole Miss but just kept firing back. The errors didn’t get to him and when LSU needed a ballsy throw in a big moment, he delivered.

We’ve talked about how he’s technically the best quarterback eligible for next year and he showed that again here. He doesn’t have massive traits but he’s adept at throwing with anticipation and timing, he makes more NFL-level throws than any other QB in college football and in this contest he showed he can win a big game for his team when the pressure’s on.

Look at the pocket awareness on this throw, keeping his eyes downfield and executing:

This is a NFL play. He shifts away from the pressure and navigates the defender well, keeps his eyes downfield and executes the pass.

On the fourth down touchdown throw to tie the game with seconds remaining, look at the anticipation on this throw:

His footwork actually isn’t great here, he’s hopping to his left for no reason and it takes some velocity off the pass. He actually ends up throwing across his body — not ideal. Yet look at the anticipation and the ability to still execute. The receiver is nowhere to be seen when he releases the ball and it is perfect accuracy to the spot he’s running into.

Here’s the standard broadcast view of the touchdown. There are 30 seconds remaining and it’s 4th and 5. This is the ball game right here:

Nussmeier actually has a lot more natural talent than I think people are giving him credit for. Look at this throw. It’s perfect placement, off-structure and improvised with his footwork. It’s an incredible pass:

In the post-game press conference Nussmeier called it ‘one of the worst games of his career’. He won his team the game and he’s pissed off about the turnovers. I like that. He isn’t flawless and the mistakes and lack of elite traits prevent you from going all-in on a top draft projection. At the moment I have him in round two. I don’t think he’ll declare and will likely prefer a second season starting at LSU — unless he leads a great playoff run and wants to strike while the iron’s hot. However, there is talent here and a technical quality that is beyond most college passers.

One thing I am wary of though is a lack of mobility. Increasingly in the NFL I think the ability to scramble, extend and create is important. Brock Purdy, not known as a mad scrambler, is showing he can do it this season and his game has reached a new level. Nussmeier is very much a pocket passer. Whenever the Seahawks do ultimately draft a young quarterback, I’d ideally like that player to be able to get out of the pocket and avoid pressure when necessary. Not at the expense of being a terrible pocket passer though — and that is where Nussmeier excels.

Another note from this game — LSU tight end Mason Taylor is a really interesting player within this star-studded TE class. If the top players declare, we could see 5-7 tight ends taken in the first two rounds.

— Last week we highlighted UNLV’s brilliant receiver Ricky White III. He had another excellent outing on Saturday, gaining 138 yards and two touchdowns on seven receptions. It doesn’t matter whether he’s well covered or not — he makes spectacular, difficult catches downfield. He has ample speed. His body control is excellent. His body type really reminds me of Nuk Hopkins. He has a similar level of sophistication in his route running and concentration too. For me he’s a top-50 talent in this draft class and a good Senior Bowl and combine could propel him into round one. He’s one of the best kept secrets in the 2025 draft.

— Donovan Jackson had a disappointing 2024 season but I thought the Ohio State guard had his best game in a long time last weekend and he followed it up against Oregon. He was powerful and drove opponents off the ball consistently. They often ran to his side and he made key blocks on an early fourth down conversion and a touchdown run by quarterback Will Howard. He pulled to the right side with ease and connected with his blocks in the open field. He stood up well in pass-pro — holding blocks for long stretches to allow the QB a good pocket to throw from. Jackson was beaten on a quick inside move that ended in a forced fumble but it was the only real blemish. He has excellent physical tools and an ideal body type for the position. He looks like the player who once garnered first round chatter and based on the last two games, he’s a top-45 pick. That’s good news for teams in need of a good, young left guard. It’d be something to be quite enthusiastic about if the Seahawks hadn’t suddenly shown they are far further away from contention than simply adding one highly drafted guard.

There was some bad news from the game — Ohio state left tackle Josh Simmons, my top rated tackle on the horizontal board, suffered a suspected season-ending knee injury.

— Nothing sums Shedeur Sanders up better than the sequence that saw him give up an avoidable grounding penalty for a big loss, only to then come roaring back on a 2nd and 28 to complete the perfect touch pass downfield for a first down, only to then throw a lousy interception over the middle. Sanders is very much a ‘yes! no! yes! no!’ type of player. He has all the talent in the world and can make things happen. He also makes big mistakes — none more so than his preference to throw downfield at inopportune times. For example, there was a 4th and 5 situation with the game on the line. He took the snap, assessed his options and then threw a downfield fade to the right sideline. There’s a minute to go. It’s not the time for a deep shot — move the chains. Keep the game alive.

This is already not a good class at the top of round one with a dearth of legit top-10 players. The quarterbacks not elevating to gain position in that range isn’t helping.

It’s also worth noting that Travis Hunter left the Colorado/Kansas State game with an injury. There’s no news on how serious it is. DJ Giddens, Kansas State’s tremendous running back, had a typically productive game. He has a little Alvin Kamara to his game. I think he’s RB3 and a top-70 pick.

— Boise State’s Heisman favourite Ashton Jeanty ran for another 217 yards, this time adding 20 receiving yards, to go with two touchdowns. He again ran with physicality, running over defenders, and had a big 54-yard rush. He’s a top-10 pick.

I am considering posting where my horizontal board is currently, at least through rounds 1-3, at some point this week. I haven’t watched every player and there’s still time for others to elevate their stock. But I want to show where I have certain players graded as things stand.

Why the Seahawks are already facing a critical period under the new regime

October 11, 2024 / / 0 Comments

Ill-disciplined, dysfunctional football leading to a three-game losing streak where the opponents combine for 519 rushing yards. It wasn’t supposed to be this way.

So what’s gone wrong and what’s the state of the Seahawks franchise?

1. They don’t have enough quality players

The 49ers can line Nick Bosa up every down and believe in good faith he’ll impact the play. They know Fred Warner, on any given snap, could make something happen. Increasingly they can rely on their quarterback to be far more than a game-manager. Brock Purdy is becoming a legit dynamo as a playmaker.

The Seahawks, with all their draft stock spent and free agent money invested, do not have any blue-chip players. Tony Gonzalez made this point on Amazon pre-game. He claimed the Seahawks don’t have any all-pro’s. I saw the aggregate accounts populating Seahawks twitter having a field day with this, mocking Gonzalez.

He’s right though, isn’t he? Who are Seattle’s special players?

Over the years they’ve neither used a top-10 pick on a superstar like Bosa, nor have they struck gold in the later rounds. When John Schneider and Pete Carroll built the LOB era they constantly found diamonds. Drafting Earl Thomas early, then Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman later on. Finding a franchise quarterback in round three. Trading for Marshawn Lynch, a genuine world class running back and culture/tone setter.

The Seahawks have some good players, some average players, some bad players and some underachieving ones. There’s a distinct lack of greatness, though.

Until they acquire those players, they’ll continue to be a team that is too good to be horrible yet not good enough to be taken seriously as a post-season threat. That’s not a good place to be if you want your football team to play meaningful games after New Year’s Eve.

2. Too many players flatter to deceive

It’s clear there are players on Seattle’s roster that have the physical capability to be better than they’re currently showing. Some failed to live up to their potential under the Carroll regime. The hope was that the change in staff could unlock them and they turn into blue-chippers.

Sadly it isn’t happening. D.K. Metcalf, for example, remains an occasionally brilliant, often frustrating commodity. If he wants to achieve greatness he has to dominate a decimated San Francisco secondary. He failed. The inability to come back to the ball on the underthrown deep-pass before half-time and beast the defender to either make the catch or draw a penalty summed up the worst of Metcalf. Mike Evans makes that play. Metcalf regularly doesn’t. He’s rarely unstoppable, despite his outstanding physical traits.

Ken Walker is showing that physically he might be the best running back in the NFL at the moment. Yet in the last two games they haven’t been able to get him going. Against the Giants they basically ignored the run. Against the 49ers they asked him to bang his head against a brick wall up the gut early and often. Compare this to the 49ers who, even with their injury issues at running back and mediocre O-line, were able to spring massive gains. The Niners achieved 6.9 yards per carry compared to Seattle’s meagre 2.6 yesterday.

Nobody sums up the frustrating tease of this roster more than Dre’Mont Jones, though. A big-ticket free agent in 2023, most fans celebrated his addition. Finally, the Seahawks made a splash on the market. They’d needed an impact, versatile defender like this for a long time. Now they had one.

Jones has been a big waste of money. Making it worse is the way they doubled down on his contract in the off-season. It’s now more expensive to move on from him. He received a pathetic 32.9 grade against the 49ers. His grade for the season is 50.1. He’s grading badly both versus the run (50.8) and as a pass rusher (58.4).

He’s been an epic disappointment. There had to be some hope that Mike Macdonald could get him going but if anything, he looks worse than last season. His cap hit next year is an eye-watering $25.6m. It’s projected to be 9% of Seattle’s entire cap space. Cutting him would cost you $14m in dead money.

Both Jones’ signing and the decision to push some of his money into the future go down as huge gaffes by the front office. He’s their biggest ever outside free agent splash and he’s just become a financial dead weight. Jones is a honking disappointment and embodies the way this roster has plenty of athletic potential but is largely ineffective.

3. The coaches are struggling

This isn’t a big surprise. When you appoint a rookie Head Coach with only two years’ experience as a NFL defensive coordinator, an offensive leader who’s never even coached in the NFL, a defensive coordinator whose only experience previously was as a position coach and a special teams coordinator who only previously did this job in college — growing pains are inevitable.

However, things are starting to unravel. The concern has to be — do they have the capability to stop the rot? Will things continue to regress? Is Leslie Frazier’s presence enough at this point? Do they actually know what to do in this situation — tactically, emotionally and in terms of man-management?

Part of my problem with the latter years of the Carroll regime was their inability to fix glaring issues. The answers were never forthcoming to persistent problems. We’re seeing it again now.

Seattle’s fundamentals are a disaster. They aren’t doing the basics right as individuals, meaning the team frequently is collapsing with no foundation on both sides of the ball. That’s why we’re seeing so many back-breaking mistakes. At the same time — things that should be par for the course such as an ability to tackle, get off a block occasionally, complete an easy third down pass, field a kick, make a routine block or catch the football aren’t happening anywhere near enough.

Macdonald is starting to sound exasperated during press conferences, in part because I don’t think he knows what to do. He’s never been in this position before. At Baltimore it was always fairly plain-sailing. Now he’s facing true adversity and the buck stops with him. He probably can’t recall moments in his career to know how to handle a situation where a lot of things are going wrong at the same time.

You start to wonder if the players feel it too. Metcalf ripping off the headset of a coach to yell at Ryan Grubb was a terrible look and it suggests there might be eroding trust — perhaps from both sides. Geno Smith, meanwhile, looked miserable on the sidelines and he was tetchy in his post-game press conference.

The Seahawks invested in freshness within their staff and clearly hoped that talent and ideas would make up for a lack of ‘been there, done that’ experience. At the moment they look like they’re on the bike but aren’t ready to take the training wheels off.

It’s a little bit worrying because for all the ‘defensive Sean McVay’ tags being attached to Macdonald, there’s little evidence on the field to back that up. His defense stinks, as does the cumulative team product. McVay went 11-5 in his first season as Head Coach of the Rams and won coach of the year. He helped Todd Gurley win offensive player of the season. He famously embarrassed the Carroll Seahawks 42-7 in week 15 — ending the LOB era as we knew it in the process.

Sometimes you realise quickly when you’ve won the coach lottery.

McVay started 7-2 in year one with his only losses being a closely fought defeat to the Seahawks and a beating at the hands of Minnesota, who finished the year 13-3 and reached the NFC Championship game.

Macdonald’s start in Seattle feels very different.

The new regime deserves a period of grace but it doesn’t last forever. Even if we all have to resign ourselves to this being year-one of a structural rebuild and/or transition to bigger roster changes in the future — you still need to see an improvement on what we’re witnessing at the moment.

The fundamentals can’t be this bad. You can’t give the impression you’re a bit lost for much longer. You need to find answers and solutions so that even if you’re going to lose a game, you don’t lose like they are at the moment.

Players and fans need a reason to believe that the people captaining the ship will get you to the shore.

4. The franchise needs a kick up the arse

I remember my first visit to what is now known as Lumen Field. It was a 2006 encounter against the Packers on Monday Night Football. There were a few fans from Green Bay present but make no mistake, they were heavily outnumbered.

The atmosphere was electric and the noise deafening. It was a special environment to watch a game of football and it’s why I became addicted to the Seahawks from the minute the 12th Man Flag was raised that night.

Now look at the place. Primetime games are filled with away fans. The sea of red in the lower decks was again prominent on TV. I bet it was even worse in person. The 49ers fans could be heard loudly chanting ‘let’s go Niners’ at the end.

In the last four seasons where fans have been in the stands, Seattle’s home record is a terrible 19-18. This doesn’t include the Covid season of 2020 when no fans attended games. In that period, their road record is 20-16.

However it has happened, Seattle’s home-field advantage is gone. The mystique of Lumen Field is no longer there. It’s a fading force. I think teams actually relish visiting these days — especially the well-backed clubs with armies of travelling fans paying for the expensive re-sale tickets.

There are other things I could discuss in this section of the article but to me it feels like the franchise on the whole is going through a period of malaise. They’re not terrible or anything like the Panthers. They’re not good either, like the 49ers. This feels like a franchise that deserves to have a 19-18 home record. In every sense, that’s what they are at the moment. Middle of the road. Unexciting. Kind of making up the numbers.

5. How do they get better?

This is the big question and I’m afraid, there’s no obvious fix. It’s not as simple as ‘just draft amazing players’. Well yeah. Everyone’s trying to do that.

The 2025 draft class, as we’ve often discussed, isn’t loaded at the top end. If they end up picking in the top-half of round one again, it might be tricky to identify a player worthy of a big investment.

Then you start to wonder what they should be trying to do. Is it just a case of build up the O-line? Maybe — but it’s particularly thin for O-liners projected to go in round one. How do you fix the glaring defensive issues we’re seeing every week? Geno Smith just turned 34 and remains, to me at least, a pure bridge to the future. Do they need to finally draft a quarterback early? But do you do that in 2025 when the options are not mind-blowing?

The Seahawks had an opportunity to build something with the haul from the Russell Wilson trade but that stock is now spent. How you travel from what they are now to the next step is extremely difficult to map out.

In the meantime, unless they fix things on the field, further question marks will be asked about the players and staff. The GM John Schneider is starting to get heat because he’s the consistent feature remaining from the last regime.

It’s not a great place to be at the moment. There are only a few teams more in need of some reassuring, nerve-calming wins and better performances to just settle everything down.

When the other teams in your division can show an ability to compete and beat the 49ers, even when they’re banged up, and all you do is get handily beaten to the tune of six straight defeats — all while being so fundamentally ragged and losing three-in-a-row — it’s inevitable that concern will grow.

Instant reaction: Don’t be fooled, this was an embarrassing loss

October 10, 2024 / / 0 Comments

The Seahawks didn’t look ready to play again today, as was the case against the Giants. I don’t write that glibly or without consideration.

As with the New York game, they flirted with a comeback. Yet they need to try and fight back because of the way they’re starting games.

And what about that ending? A 76-yard run to kill the game. Nothing sums up the current day Seahawks better than that play.

They gave up 229 rushing yards today, after giving up 175 against the Giants and 185 against the Patriots. Let’s be honest, the Lions could’ve run for way more than the 116 they earned — instead they leaned on Jared ‘no incomplete passes’ Goff.

A period of grace is fine for a new staff. Things need to improve though — and fast. The shoddiness of the play is being paired with confusing game-plans, bad execution and poor body language.

I hate to say it but after watching the defense against Detroit and the total team performances against New York and San Francisco, I’m beginning to worry. They look worse in the last three games than they did at their worst last season.

This feels like an inexperienced staff making a lot of mistakes and learning the hard way. That’s to be expected. But it’s no excuse for failing to get off a block, make a tackle, complete an easy pass to convert a third down or make a tricky catch.

Listening to jubilant 49ers fans chanting ‘let’s go Niners’ in Lumen Field was reminiscent of the Steelers fans celebrating last season.

San Francisco had their way with the Seahawks for long stretches here. It was close for a bit thanks to a kick-off return touchdown and a blown call by the ref’s not to give the 49ers the ball on a botched fair catch.

Don’t blame injuries. Every team has injuries — in particular the 49ers. They are decimated. The Giants moved the ball well enough without their top two playmakers last weekend. The Rams beat this 49ers team with far more serious injury problems than Seattle. The Cardinals also beat this San Francisco team.

At times they look like they’re allergic to tackling. They get pushed around. They never come close to forcing a turnover and rely totally on luck when one occurs (see: the Giants fumble return). They had no sacks today and the pressure felt anaemic. They look low-energy when things start to go wrong.

Mike Macdonald only had two seasons as a NFL defensive coordinator before becoming a Head Coach. It’s starting to show. He’s inexperienced. This is his defensive unit and at the moment, it’s awful. Nothing about what we’re seeing at the moment is encouraging. You need a reason to have faith for the future. At the moment they seem to be scrambled, searching for answers and not finding any.

The offense is a streaky, befuddled frustration. I’m starting to think the Lions performance was more a review of Detroit’s defense than anything else.

On Sunday they allowed a situation to happen where they only ran Ken Walker five times in a game tied at half-time. Today, they didn’t seem to have much of a creative plan at all. Run it up the gut, after spending all week telling the media they wanted to run more. I bet the 49ers didn’t see that coming. Here’s an idea — be balanced and creative in both games. Of course it also helps if the defense can get the ball back to the offense.

When the runs didn’t work, Geno Smith would throw an inaccurate pass and out comes the punting unit.

Smith wasn’t great against the Giants but he was bad here. He was inaccurate. He missed easy throws. He threw two interceptions and now has a 6/6 ratio for touchdowns and picks. He’s very capable of having streaks of absolute quality as we saw at the start of the season. Yet as with the previous two seasons, he also has sequences where he looks like he did today.

There was a stark difference between the two quarterbacks tonight. Brock Purdy was scrambling around, looking like a legit playmaker and dicing up the Seahawks. It did feel like he made up for some of the key San Francisco players missing.

Smith is an athlete but he’s not a big creative scrambler and extender. He felt locked into the pocket. His accuracy, for some reason, was really off tonight. Nothing’s changed for me. He’s a good bridge to the future — but the future the Seahawks must seek. He’s far from the only problem or the biggest problem, though.

I think I finally gave up on DK Metcalf ever reaching his physical potential on the downfield shot before half-time where he just seemed to have no idea how to use his size, length and hands to make a play. The drops, the fumbles, the inconsistent play. He’s a fantastic athlete and can be a brilliant home-run hitter. He’s not ever going to be the physically dominant force Mike Evans is and Julio Jones was.

This is a roster constructed after the Russell Wilson trade. That deal brought a bevvy of draft picks and cap relief. That the same issues continue to show up on both sides of the ball year after year, speaks to the possibility that they’re not as good as I and others have thought.

The Seahawks look a soft touch again. Finesse with a desire to be something different.

The form at home says it all. They’re no good in Seattle. Teams used to dread travelling to the North West. Now, year after year, it looks like a lovely day out for a lot of opponents. The sea of red jersey’s filling the expensive seats at the front is emblematic of a franchise that has lost its sparkle. It genuinely feels like the mystique of this former cauldron has all but gone.

This three-game losing streak worries me. There are so many questions and there’s little cause for optimism. They won three games they were supposed to win and they’ve failed every test since.

Curtis Allen’s week six watch-notes (vs San Francisco)

October 10, 2024 / / 0 Comments

This is a guest post by Curtis Allen

It is eerie how similar this week’s matchup against the San Francisco 49ers is with the last time they played them in Seattle, Week Twelve’s Thanksgivings Day game last year.

The Watch Points for that game discussed several of the needs and feelings of a Seahawks team coming off a frustrating loss to an inferior opponent (the Rams).  It was a loss littered with mistakes and poor play, questionable play calls on offense, culminating in a last-second field goal try that did not go their way.

The Seahawks needed to balance out their run/pass mix on offense.

Turnovers were a problem.

They needed to tackle better and generate more pass rush on defense.

All these concerns are once again at the forefront of everyone’s mind as the Seahawks prepare for a critical matchup.

What is at stake in the next few games?  Putting themselves in a position to grab a playoff spot to be sure.  But more than that, beating two division opponents at home may allow the Seahawks to build up a lead in the division and a head of steam that will be hard to close the gap on come December.  Better playoff seeding is also at stake right now.

A win puts the Seahawks two full games ahead of the Niners and gives them the tie breaker as well.  It also means San Francisco will have lost four of their last five going into two very tough games, one against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs and one against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football.  The Niners could go into their bye week 2-6 or 3-5, needing to practically run the table to get a good playoff seeding.

It all starts tonight.

So those points above are still the main points for this game.

They simply must get the running game going.

The Seahawks’ staff and players have spent the week doing an I Am Spartacus routine over who is responsible for their stunning lack of running plays on offense.

It does not matter who is ultimately responsible.  It does not matter if the whole stadium and both teams know the Seahawks are going to be leaning more on the run than they have to this point.  It must be addressed immediately.

San Francisco is conceding 4.7 yards per rush this year, good for #21 in the NFL.  It is being achieved mostly through the combination of tough 2–5-yard runs with some explosives mixed in.  Arizona had six 10+ yard runs in their win last week.  Minnesota had four in their win.

It is mission critical that the Seahawks successfully run the ball on San Francisco.  It keeps the defense fresh, minimizes some of their Offensive Line issues and allows them to have a little more control of the game.

And this is an important starting point for their success.  It is fair to say that in their current five-game losing streak against the Niners, not once have the Seahawks felt like they had any control of the game.  The best way to defend a Kyle Shanahan offense (and a Sean McVay one, for that matter) is to keep the ball away from them.

Unleash Ken Walker.  Let Zach Charbonnet lower his shoulder and get some tough yards.

And a secret source of rushing yards:  Geno Smith.  Sam Darnold and Kyler Murray regularly took off running and burned the defense when presented with the opportunity.  In a game where Stone Forsythe will be lining up against Nick Bosa, Smith will need to process quickly and go for it more liberally than he has so far this season.  Like this:

The second point:  turnovers.  The Seahawks are underwater at -3.  The Niners were +10 last year but are currently even at zero.

In two of the Niners’ losses, they lost the turnover battle.  In their third they were dead even and forcing a fumble at the one-yard line kept the game competitive.

The defense is on pace for a similar number of takeaways as 2023, so it appears the offense must be the challenge.

It is.  The difference this year is quite simply Brock Purdy.  He is on pace to shatter his career-worsts for interceptions and fumbles.

The Seahawks can redeem themselves nicely with a couple of key turnovers on defense.

That begins with the third key point from last year:  Good tackling and putting pressure on the Quarterback.

The Seahawks have made confident statements this week about correcting their run fits and tackling angles.  They really struggled against the Giants on Sunday.  We will see if they improved, as the team with some of the hardest offensive players to tackle is their next opponent.

George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Jordan Mason force you to wrap up and not let go.

It is not just the Seahawks that have had problems bringing them down.  Have a look at this clip where Marlon Humphrey – a player who has only three missed tackles in his last 32 games – tries to just knock Deebo over with physicality:

That was from the Ravens’ masterful 33-19 win over San Francisco last year – the one that really cemented Mike Macdonald as a choice candidate for head coaching jobs.  It just illustrates that the Niners bring intensity and physicality to their games.  And even in games that the opposition handily wins, there are going to be moments the defense does not come out on top.

That game was also an excellent illustration of attacking the Quarterback and making him adjust his timing.  They sacked Brock Purdy twice, pressured him eight times and picked him off four times.  This game was over by the middle of the third quarter.

Would it surprise you to know that the Ravens only blitzed Purdy eight times?  It sure surprised me.

The Ravens got pressure with their front four and had Purdy feeling pressure that was not there most of the game.  He could have had even more interceptions – he hit Raven defenders in the hands and they were not able to secure the ball more than once.

Can Macdonald do that with his Seahawks squad?  They have been badly banged up and will be missing important pieces Uchenna Nwosu and Byron Murphy.  However, it does appear that Leonard Williams is much closer to being functional and Boye Mafe and Derick Hall are likely to play.

San Francisco’s Offensive Line is not much better than Seattle’s (although to be fair, Trent Williams and Charles Cross are not in the same class).  Brock Purdy is facing a slightly higher Pressure Rate than Geno Smith is.  There should be ample opportunities to make him uncomfortable.

That said, look for Macdonald to dial up some occasional clever looks.  Many of their schemes on defense so far this season have been closer to base than delving into deception packages.  It is possible Macdonald has been playing a bit of a long game, with the twin goals of getting this defense installed in live games and in anticipation of opening up some ideas against a division rival.

What kind of ideas?

Have a look at this play.

Macdonald has Roquan Smith, Patrick Queen and Kyle Van Noy crowding the line of scrimmage with three down linemen pre-snap, looking like a big blitz package.  But none of them go at the snap.  They all retreat to coverage and instead Kyle Hamilton (perfectly synching to the snap) comes roaring in off a nickel coverage spot.

Hamilton gets illegally chop-blocked by McCaffrey and then Aaron Banks decides to flop his 324 lbs on him to make sure he is down.

Meanwhile, Nmandi Madubuike and Odafe Oweh beat their men (really, outlast them with a relentless motor) and chase Purdy, who has taken too much time to process who is doing what on defense.

Purdy is forced into a contested throw that Marlon Humphrey bats away and right into the arms of…Kyle Hamilton, who has gotten up and doggedly gotten back into the play.

It is smarts.  Desire.  Toughness.

That is what it will take to defeat the Niners.  Do the Seahawks have it in them?  We will find out.

Those are the major points.  Scheming is important, but this team simply needs to execute better and raise the level of their intensity to meet the moment.

A couple of additional notes that could also be a crucial factor:

Win the Red Zone Battle

The San Francisco offense has been struggling mightily in the red zone, currently ranking #29 in Touchdown Efficiency with 40.9% of their trips resulting in six points.  Just for reference, last year they were easily #1 in the NFL with 68%.

Kyle Shanahan has expressed bewilderment at their lack of scoring, noting that they have yet to have success in the run or pass game in the most critical part of the field.  How critical?  They went 1-for-6 last week against Arizona in a game they lost by one point.  Does not get more critical than that.

It is not too difficult to discern what a major part of the issue is.  They really miss Christian McCaffrey.  Last year, he had twelve red zone touchdowns (eight running, four receiving).  The rest of the team combined?  Also twelve.

Look at his work last year in that Thanksgiving Day game:

You just cannot replace that level of skill, toughness and desire and the Niners are feeling it.  Also exacerbating the problem is that in five games, they only have one touchdown from outside the red zone on offense.  One!

Adding to that, the lack of time in the pocket is also an issue.  Quarterbacks frequently scramble to buy time and eventually find an open receiver – it is just an inevitability that a skilled player will get open.

This is where the ‘get pressure with four and flood coverage’ plan is at its most critical.  Purdy does not have the strongest arm or the quickest legs.  What he does have is accuracy and touch in tight windows.  Do not allow him the time to deploy those weapons.

The Seahawks have been successful defending in the red zone, currently ranking #11 in the NFL.  That is a small sample size, however, which includes Bo Nix’s first game, Miami and their mess of an offense, and the Giants fumbling the ball at the one-yard line.  The Seahawks gave up five red zone touchdowns to Detroit and it is fair to say the Niners are far closer to the Lions on offense than those other teams.  If they still rank #11 coming out of this game, it will be a good day’s work.

On offense, the Seahawks are #10 in the red zone and that is a legit number.  Four different Seahawks have red zone touchdowns and they are scoring from outside the red zone just as much as they are in it.

They must keep it up and find success with it.

Looking at what kind of play that has worked against the Niners defense this year, a short crossing play where the receiver sort of gets lost either behind or beyond the line of scrimmage has been regularly effective (particularly in the Minnesota game, where a lot of defensive attention is on Justin Jefferson).  Plays like this crosser with A.J. Barner are a prime example:

This can work in any region of the field to move the defense’s eyes around.

Some Other Brief Notes:

— The Niners are banged up in their backfield.  Charvarius Ward is questionable with a knee injury.  Even if he is active, it could be a challenge to keep up with the receivers.  With Talanoa Hufanga going on Injured Reserve, the Niners are thin at the Safety spot.  Ji’Ayir Brown and Malik Mustafa are being forced into the lineup.  They have had moments of good play but PFF is grading both in the 50’s thus far.  The deep middle of the field should be an area where the Seahawks attack with regularity in this game.  Noah Fant needs to be utilized in this way.  Calling my shot: I wonder if these youngsters would bite on a Flea Flicker type play.

— Special Teams once again could be critical.  Dee Williams has not impressed as a punt returner and the coverage teams are in the bottom ten of the NFL.  The sting of a blocked field goal try at the worst possible time Sunday still lingers.  A ‘didn’t significantly alter the game’s outcome’ would be an improvement at this point.  The Niners will be breaking in a new kicker as Josh Moody is out with an ankle injury.  They had to go for it on a Fourth-and-23 at Arizona’s 27-yard line last week because they had no kicker.  It obviously failed and again, they lost by one point.

— I do also think the offense will try some more creative things in this week’s game to shake up the defense and keep them off guard.  Hopefully it will be better than Deejay Dallas trying to throw the ball into a tight window at a critical point in the game.  That said, designing plays and sequences that give Nick Bosa extra blocking attention or simply move away from his side of the field are a fair expectation.

— Look for some explosive plays in passes to the Running Backs.  Both Walker and Charbonnet are good pass catchers and can move well in space.  If they give Walker enough room he will break one.

Scouting notes week six: Eye-catching O-liners, a player the Seahawks might target, Luke Lachey notes, Cam Ward is what he is & more

October 9, 2024 / / 0 Comments

The offensive linemen catching my eye

It’s arguably Seattle’s biggest need area and while the 2025 draft isn’t going to be loaded with options, some are emerging.

I’ve been increasingly impressed with Iowa center Logan Jones. He’s tough and physical at the point of attack, locates his hands properly and he has the athleticism and strength to hold position. He’s extremely athletic and explosive — reportedly jumping a near 37-inch vertical, setting a school squatting record of 695lbs, running a 1.53 10-yard split and a 4.09 short shuttle.

I watched some of his stuff from last year and thought he needed major technical work but he’s definitely improved in 2024. I still think he can be better when reaching up to the second level and connecting with his blocks — but in terms of scheme fit, upside, production, toughness and power — Jones could be a strong option for the Seahawks given their uncertain future at center. I have Jones graded for day two. Parker Brailsford is a very similar player and has a history with Ryan Grubb and Scott Huff. He could also be a good option if he turns pro.

I’ve written a lot about Tyler Booker at Alabama, a former five-star recruit with massive size and plus athleticism. He’s not the quickest when he has to pull and get on the move but he’s not clumsy getting into space. He moves well. As a straight-up blocker he can destroy opponents 1v1. If strength and technique are problems Christian Haynes is struggling with, there’s little sign Booker will share those issues. Haynes didn’t have a prototype body for the NFL, Booker does.

I also think Booker is a perfect character fit for the Seahawks. He could be a genuine option for their top pick in the draft, especially given the way the O-line is playing.

Alternatively, Donovan Jackson at Ohio State had his best game of the season against Iowa on Saturday. He is reportedly also very athletic — jumping a 30 inch vertical and a 9-7 broad, to go with running a 1.59 10-yard split. He was once considered a likely first or second rounder until a subpar 2023 season. The Iowa game was a reminder of what he can do. Jackson is another early-round option for the Seahawks. If he continues to play the way he did against Iowa, he will go quite early.

I think we all want to see physical toughness up front. Jack Nelson at Wisconsin is someone who could play guard or right tackle, even if he plays left tackle in college. He very rarely gets into awkward positions, enabling him to get into opponents and contain. I think if he’s given more square-up opportunities he could excel. For me, he’s a day-two pick. I’ve talked him up a lot.

If the Seahawks end up picking early, it could bring Kelvin Banks into play at Texas. He’ll likely kick inside like Alijah Vera-Tucker because he simply doesn’t have a tackle frame. He’ll likely go in the top-20. Jonah Savaiinaea at Arizona also likely needs to move inside from right tackle. He should go in the top-50.

I currently have Ohio State left tackle Josh Simmons graded as my top tackle eligible for 2025. He is the best pass-protecting blind-side blocker by some distance in my opinion — and I’m not sure why he continues to be ignored by a lot of draft media.

I have a lot of other names on my horizontal board but very few O-liners are standing out. It’s thin gruel and you might need to aggressively pursue the players you like early if you want to make sure you don’t miss out. It’s not looking like a great O-line draft but there are options.

Get Luke Lachey in Seattle

I graded him highly a year ago but a bad leg injury meant he didn’t declare. I’ve now watched three Iowa games this season and on each occasion, Lachey has stood out.

I love the way he blocks — both at the line of scrimmage off the edge and also when he needs to get on the move. He just has a knack of locating targets, locking on and finishing. I haven’t seen a better blocker at his position. It’s not surprising given his bloodlines — his dad is former first round offensive lineman Jim Lachey.

Athletically he also has untapped potential in Iowa’s constantly dismal passing game. I genuinely believe, like TJ Hockenson, Sam LaPorta and George Kittle before him, he could come into the league and shock people with his pass-catching skills. He has ideal size and he can get on the move. He’s a very reliable hands-catcher and when he needs to make an athletic move to finish a play, he can do.

There are a few players in the draft I know I’ll probably be banging the table for — although testing and the Senior Bowl impacts things. Lachey is one of my favourite players in the draft. The Seahawks still aren’t getting any bang for their buck from Noah Fant. I’d consider moving on and replacing him with another Iowa Hawkeye. If Lachey lasts beyond round two, I think he’d provide outstanding value.

Ricky White III is one to watch

Sometimes you watch a player and just think, ‘who the f**k is that guy?’ — they stand out that much. UNLV receiver White III fits that bill.

I watched his performance against Syracuse and was blown away. I’ve since watched three more games. He’s a really good player. He has a long, lean frame with bags of juice. His body type reminds me of a poor-man’s Ceedee Lamb or maybe Nuk Hopkins. In terms of speed he can attack the red-line and get downfield. He does create separation. His body control is good and he can contort to the ball and make awkward catches. I like his catching technique — he grabs the ball with his hands away from his body. White III is adept at finding soft-spots in coverage and running away from defenders.

I came away incredibly impressed and immediately stuck a solid day two grade on him — putting him in the same bracket as Emeka Egbuka and Xavier Restrepo. Testing will matter but there’s just something about White III that makes me think he’s destined for an excellent pro career. People are sleeping on him.

Cam Ward is what he is

The hype for Cam Ward reached ridiculous proportions a couple of weeks ago, with broadcasters during games suggesting he could be the #1 overall pick next year.

I’ve tried to push back at this with a detailed breakdown (both here and here) but that’s the sad thing. The over-the-top hype has robbed me of a chance to say he’s taken a step forward this season. Instead of acknowledging that and praising Ward, you end up fighting the hyperbole.

Saturday’s game against California highlighted the strengths and weaknesses of his game.

There’s no denying that he has a playmaking flair and it’s always been there. A Cam Ward highlight reel at Washington State was worth watching. It’s the same in Miami — and he’s flourished playing for a team heavily favoured in all of its games so far.

Yet there are still glaring technical flaws and examples of Ward trying to do too much that will impact his stock when it comes to the NFL.

I’ve noted a few times how he has a tendency to drift in the pocket and go backwards. Here was a classic example from the Cal game:

Ward has a relatively clean pocket here. There’s no immediate pressure. If you freeze the video at three seconds you’ll see he has an open receiver beyond the line to gain (near the left hashmark) and two checkdown options on either side of the field. The commentator claims he looks “so calm, so patient” but the opposite is true. He’s flustered here. His primary read, presumably, isn’t open. So rather than stay poised and go through the progressions, his internal clock panics and he starts to retreat because he probably thinks he’ll get sacked. In reality, the protection is good enough for him to remain in the pocket for longer, then extend with a lateral movement.

The one thing you don’t do is drop back 18 yards behind the LOS while glueing your eyes to one read. Once the defensive linemen break from the blocking, they have a free run to attack you. He tried in vain to get the ball out and fails — but it would’ve been intentional grounding and/or a dangerous, panicked pass to throw anyway.

This is how he reacts in a non-threatening pressure situation against California. What’s he going to do in a muddy NFL pocket? You can’t have him drift like this or reject open targets because he’s stuck on a read. We showed how badly he was doing it against Florida and he’s still doing it now. He has open targets to throw to from a clean pocket and he’s hopping up and down on the spot then retreating.

Then there’s the ‘trying to do too much’ angle as we saw with the pick-six:

This is the kind of turnover we saw at Washington State. You can’t throw these passes. They’ll be easy fodder in the NFL. It’s long been a part of his game.

Ward did a tremendous job helping his team fight back but I’m not convinced he’s enough of a physical specimen to overlook some of these issues that have travelled from the PAC-12 to the ACC. His upside is good not great. I’m not sure he will kick these habits to be a top starter. This isn’t conducive with a player teams take in round one, which is why I maintain he’s more likely to end up in the round three range where teams will feel more comfortable drafting to develop.

Miami has used two lives now against Virginia Tech and California. Ward and his team remain unbeaten but I think it’s important to offer some perspective on a player being talked about as a likely first rounder — when the reality might be something different.

The top player in the draft

I think Ashton Jeanty is pound for pound the most talented player eligible for the draft. Everything about him is exceptional — the combination of power and speed, his contact balance, his ability to break tackles, the way he runs away from defenders. Jeanty is an exceptional prospect.

He’s now forced 49 missed tackles in five games. He would’ve hit the 10-per-game mark had he not been rested for the second half on Saturday against Utah State. He’s forced 10 more missed tackles than the second ranked player on the list. He leads the NCAA for yards after contact (7.95). The second ranked player, Kaleb Johnson, is at 5.60. Jeanty has 20 explosive runs — four per game (again, it would be higher if he wasn’t pulled after winning games for Boise State by half-time).

Travis Hunter is uniquely talented given his ability to play two positions at a very high standard. Yet Jeanty is pretty much playing at an other-worldly level at the moment. He won’t be the first player taken due to his position but I would suggest that as of today, he has a great chance to go in the top-10.

I think the Seahawks will draft this player…

John Schneider attended the Michigan vs Washington game on Saturday through convenience. Why wouldn’t he pop down the road to watch a game featuring legit future NFL players?

However, I do think he’ll have been keeping a close eye on Josaiah Stewart the Michigan pass rusher. I think there’s a good chance he’ll end up in Seattle.

Look at how Seattle’s pass rush depth is taking a big hit this year. They clearly wanted a good rotation going into camp. When they traded away Darrell Taylor, they immediately traded for Trevis Gipson to replace him.

Testing and measurements will be important for Stewart’s stock but the fact he’s excelling for Wink Martindale, Mike Macdonald’s mentor, and having the kind of impact he is — I think he’ll be very much on their radar. He also has the kind of personality and character they like.

Stewart had another sack on Saturday, taking his total to five in five games. He’s currently PFF’s highest graded pass rusher in college football. His pass rush win percentage is 31.3% — also the highest mark.

It’s very easy to imagine they could zone-in on Stewart based on fit, character and production.

Quick hitting notes

— Add Bowling Green tight end Harold Fannin Jr. to the expanding list of attractive players at his position eligible for the draft. I was really impressed watching his tape this week and believe he’s a day two talent. Miami’s Elijah Arroyo also looks very much like he’s moving into day two contention along with the likes of Lachey, Tyler Warren, Mason Taylor, Mitchell Evans and one or two others.

— I think I have a few players ranked/rated differently to draft media. Josaiah Stewart is my favourite edge, at least until we get confirmed measurements and testing numbers. Impact wise, he’s the only game-wrecker I’ve seen so far. TJ Sanders is my DT2 behind Mason Graham and I think that’s an obvious one personally. Garrett Nussmeier is my QB3, Kaleb Johnson and Nicholas Singleton are my RB2 and RB3, Josh Simmons is my top ranked tackle.

— I’m shocked how mediocre Alabama’s defense appears to be. Typically they have some big dudes up front to get excited about, or some top secondary talent. Deontae Lawson the linebacker packs a punch but I think his lateral agility and speed is a bit sluggish. He’s not someone I think likely goes on day two unless he tests better than expected. Jihaad Campbell is a better athlete but he’s high-cut. Keon Sabb has levelled out after a good start. Georgia are in the same boat. You expect better from both.

Finally, if you missed my latest piece with Puck Sports this week, please do check it out:

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