I said in my big summer scouting piece that the 2027 draft looks like a deep class overall — but that the quarterbacks were once again being massively overrated. That feeling has only been reinforced after two weeks of the new college football season.
Let’s start with Arch Manning.
There’s a thirst within the media for Manning to be a top player. A draft class including a quarterback with his second name is box office. The league, equally, will be desperate for Arch to live up to the hype.
I’m convinced this is why we’re seeing a variety of ‘big boards’ with Manning listed at the top end. Dane Brugler had him ranked third in his top-50 list for the Athletic. I think that’s a preposterous ranking personally. The idea of Manning being an elite prospect is attractive. The reality is very different.
If he was called Arch Smith instead, we wouldn’t be putting him in this lofty position. The Ohio State game, fourth quarter comeback or not, highlighted exactly why.
On numerous occasions he was staring down wide open receivers, not pulling the trigger, holding on to the football, then taking off and scrambling. ESPN kept showing replays where they’d freeze the footage to show an open crossing route, with Manning looking right at it, yet choosing not to throw.
This is Manning’s greatest problem. He is just so hesitant in the pocket. But he’s not just hesitant for the tight window throws where you’d understand a young quarterback second-guessing things from time to time. He is looking at players who are wide open and for whatever reason, he doesn’t let it rip.
His interception the previous week was bad enough — a red zone situation where the receiver is open very quickly and it’s a basic set, drop and get it out to him. He hesitated instead, pumped, then threw far too late into coverage and was picked off. In the NFL — you are almost never going to get the open opportunities he had against Ohio State. If he’s over-thinking these passes and missing opportunities, how on earth is he going to live in a world where every throw is a tight window, every decision needs to be quick and you need to play with timing and rhythm?
Then there’s his accuracy, which also continues to be a problem. There are far too many high and wide throws, making life difficult for his receivers. You almost get the sense that any completion creates a situation where people are going ‘see, he can throw with accuracy’. Great. Nobody’s saying he can’t complete *any* passes, or that he lacks physical talent. He is simply not consistently accurate enough to warrant any first round talk at this stage in his career.
Manning’s best aspect is when he runs around, creates, and tries to make things happen. But he resorts to this too often. The fact is he’s rejecting the easy throw, the throw the offense has designed for him to make, in preference of scrambling, far too often.
Let me be clear — I’m not suggesting he can’t improve and work on these glaring issues to become a possible high pick in the future. But you can only judge what you’re seeing in the here and now. I’ve watched eight games from 2025 and his first two games from 2026. He is not a first round prospect at this point.
My prediction is he won’t declare for the next draft unless we see a major shift in performance over the next few weeks. I think he needs games. Two seasons as a starter won’t be enough. He’s not making enough progress.
Jeff Simmons messaged me to suggest Brock Osweiler as a comparison. I think that’s a fair comp for current-day Arch Manning.
He’s not even the best quarterback eligible for the draft (far from it) — let alone the third best player at any position in the class.
Then there’s Dante Moore at Oregon. The Ducks scraped by Boise State last week and lost to Oklahoma State this week. They stood out as a major overrated team coming into the year — with their best players being projected way above their means and a serious lack of depth in behind.
There’s no better example than defensive tackle A’Mauri Washington. Touted by many as a first round pick (#23 on Brugler’s board) — he simply isn’t a good football player. He’s a good athlete. That’s it. In this game he was consistently pushed around in the run game, he isn’t stout, he offered no pass-rush threat and then he limped off injured. This is who he is.
Bear Alexander and Matayo Uiagalelei are very average prospects too. They are a team very reliant on the offensive system, yet lost their top offensive coordinator to Kentucky in the off-season.
That means it’s up to the quarterback, who many project as the likely #1 overall pick next year, to elevate his team. He didn’t do it against Oklahoma State.
He missed a wide open 4th and 2 throw in the first half. He was under no pressure. You *have* to make the play. Throw it softly into the receivers body and it’s an easy completion. In no world should that receiver be having to extend his arms away from his body:
Dante Moore could have been the first overall pick last year.
Today he is 3/11 with 17 passing yards.
Against an unranked team. 😭😭😭
— PortersBurgh (@PortersBurgh) September 12, 2026
Could he have caught it, regardless of the pass being slightly off? Yes. But that’s beyond the point. This should be a very easy completion and Moore makes his receiver work harder than necessary (the view from the endzone was even uglier on the placement of the throw).
There were several other similar misses — air-mailing a pass to talented receiver Evan Stewart and botching a swing-pass. He started the game 1/7 passing.
He is big and rigid and lacks creativity. Yes his mechanics are sound and he has the size plus a decent arm. But he just looks very average to me — not someone you’d expect to take the league by storm. What special qualities does he have?
On a 4th and 6 in the fourth quarter, he bootlegs out to the right and his read is covered. So he just burns the throw into the turf. It’s fourth down. You’re trailing by five points at this moment. There’s just under seven minutes to go. Improvise. The scheme told him the play — and he couldn’t shift on it, with the game on the line, so he just throws it away.
His processing in this game wasn’t great and he threw multiple dangerous fourth quarter throws. It said it all with about four minutes to go. Oregon were trailing by eight and yet kept trying to run the ball for the tying score. They didn’t just put the ball in Moore’s hands.
He did have a 36-yard touchdown to the deep left that was well thrown. He delivered a very catchable ball with a good arc. He dropped it in with touch.
Moore reminds me of Josh Freeman, taken 17th overall by Tampa Bay in 2009. Freeman was a 5.00 runner — and Moore similarly doesn’t have the mobility and quickness to move around and create. He has a decent arm, he’s well sized (although not as big as Freeman). I can imagine their careers following a similar path. I don’t think he has any kind of special quality to become a top NFL passer.
I’ve spoken to people recently in the scouting world who share these same concerns. Indeed, there seems to be far more league buzz around Darian Mensah. I have reservations there — he’s looking very polished so far but playing for Miami is becoming the cheat-code for boosting your stock. They aren’t really tested in the ACC. He gets to throw to Malachi Toney, who would be a top receiver in the NFL today even though he’s only a sophomore. Toney should be the Heisman favourite, not his quarterback. They run the ball effectively and protect at a reasonable level.
Mensah still has to put the ball in the right places and play on time — which he’s done very well so far against two bad opponents. He’ll also likely avoid the brain-farts Carson Beck had a year ago, meaning he’ll likely play at a consistent enough level to keep enhancing his stock. Nobody was calling him a future top-five pick at Duke or Tulane, though. We should remember that. And he doesn’t quite have the physical tools of Cam Ward — who equally used a spell at Miami to propel himself to a level that was probably beyond his capabilities.
For me, Trinidad Chambliss continues to be the standout quarterback prospect. His processing is just on another level — as is his ability to throw with anticipation and timing. He’s hugely creative and can make magic happen on the run. He elevated his team last season and appears destined to do it again this year. He’s not as trendy as some of the other ‘bigger name’ prospects but he’s the best quarterback prospect as of today.
Through two weeks, there are no signs LaNorris Sellers has taken a step as a passer despite the switch to the ‘Art Briles’-type offense in South Carolina. He was off all night against Towson, completing just 10/23 for 96 yards and zero passing touchdowns. His interception was unfortunate and on the receiver flubbing an easy catch — but this was another game where his running (119 yards and a touchdown on seven carries) was his main key skill. He has a big arm too — but he simply isn’t developing as a passer.
Neither Julian Sayin (Ohio State) nor John Mateer (Oklahoma) played like draftable players on Saturday. Sam Leavitt threw three honking interceptions for LSU against Louisiana Tech. UCLA’s Nico Iamaleava didn’t play well against San Diego State and threw an abysmal interception in the red zone — throwing woefully back across his body into a crowded central area with a lofted, loopy pass that any of us could’ve picked off.
Drew Mestermaker played well for Oklahoma State against Oregon — but only after a miserable display the prior week in a loss to Tulsa. He has four interceptions in two games.
The truth is — this is a wildly overrated quarterback class again. I understand why draft media is invested in suggesting otherwise — but just as we saw last year, the truth will out. Overall it’s a deep looking draft with many attractive options at the other positions. Just don’t be fooled by the people arguing this is a great crop of QB’s. It isn’t.
Other notes from week two
— In many ways Oregon linebacker Devon Jackson looks massively appealing. He’s 6-2 and 242lbs and has been timed at a remarkable 24 mph on the GPS. He chased down Mestermaker on a 75-yard run in a DK Metcalf vs the Cardinals style ‘lost cause’ — forcing the quarterback out of bounds at the three-yard line and ultimately saving his team four points. He then ran back a tipped-pass 96-yards for a pick-six. He’s a great athlete and can also reportedly jump a 40-inch vertical. However, his long speed’s better than his burst. He can be a bit slow to react and run to the ball. He needs to do a better job shedding blocks and playing with more violence once engaged. He’s not a short-area quickness player who can change direction freely and he doesn’t come downhill to set a tone.
— Kenyatta Jackson looks like he could play in the NFL now. He’s big, carries an alpha aura on the field for Ohio State and he’s had a productive start to the season. He has eight pressures in two games plus a sack. His run defense was strong against Texas. He consistently set an edge and on one occasion smashed into a pulling center to hit the running back for no gain. He drove the tackle back into Manning for his sack. However, he also stuck on too many blocks in the first half and doesn’t play with great quickness, burst or ankle flexion. He did effectively drop into coverage on one snap. He could be an eventual DeMarcus Lawrence replacement for the Seahawks but it’s tricky to judge his upside without testing numbers. I’m not sure he’ll be a sack-artist in the NFL.
— Yhonzae Pierre at Alabama is in a similar boat. He looks like a NFL player with a great frame. He’s good in space, plays read/react like a linebacker and seems to consistently be around the action. However, he’s better playing standing up and doesn’t seem to have the ankle-flexion required to be a great edge threat, nor the blistering speed. He looks like he’d fit Seattle’s system too, but again — what’s his upside? I feel like we’ve seen a few Alabama EDGE/OLB types like this.
— Ohio State’s transfer safety Earl Little Jr is a blog favourite and he led the Buckeyes in tackles against Texas (11). He was consistently reading things correctly, playing to the ball and coming up to make tackles in the running game. He’s someone I liked a lot for the last draft and this should be a great opportunity to showcase his talent. He deserves more attention.
— I have not studied Louisiana Tech cornerback Jordan McRae but the way he ran back his pick-six against LSU has me intrigued. He has blistering speed. It’s been a while since I sat up in my chair watching a run-back like I did for his play yesterday.
— Ole Miss receiver Deuce Alexander just has so much burst, quickness and spark to his game. He also plays with a competitive edge. He’s caught my eye in both games this season.
— I really hope Alabama receiver Ryan Coleman-Williams can ease some of the concerns over his drops because he’s such a dynamic player. He has limitless potential. However, he just looks so awkward and uncomfortable catching a football. If it ever clicks for him you could end up with a top, top NFL playmaker. At the moment though, even when he’s making catches, his technique looks poor.
— Two players I want to watch more of based on Saturday — Wyatt Young the Oklahoma State receiver and Mi’Quise Humphrey-Grace the defensive lineman of Kentucky.
— The Seahawks look like they need more speed/quickness off the EDGE and could easily find themselves in the market for a pass rusher in the off-season. Princewill Umanmielen is off to an electric start this season. He has five sacks in two games and 10 pressures. He’s not just winning with speed off the edge — you’re seeing counters, you’re seeing hand-technique. It’s said he can run a 1.51 10-yard split. He’s a very intriguing player and one to keep an eye on.
— Indiana receiver Charlie Becker and Oregon’s Evan Stewart are both legit players. Becker is a quarterback’s best friend — he can go up and make contested catches, he separates early in the route to present open opportunities, he has enough size to be a red zone threat and he catches cleanly and away from his body. A terrific player. Stewart’s injury history will need checking out but he’s just so dynamic and quick.




