Author: Rob Staton (Page 1 of 395)

Sports Broadcaster, Journalist and creator of Seahawks Draft Blog in 2008.

Curtis Allen’s week seven watch-notes (vs Atlanta)

October 20, 2024 / / 0 Comments

This is a guest post by Curtis Allen

In a seventeen game NFL season, every week counts. Every week can be pointed to as a turning point for a team, one that cuts both ways. The beginning of something good, or the game fans point to that just confirms that the wheels that were wobbly have truly fallen off.

It is no small matter that the Seahawks have dropped three games in a row and have tumbled from an exhilarating 3-0 start to a maddening 3-3 team with more questions than answers.

They had a mini-bye to take stock of their program and reassess some things. Frankly, everything needed a close look. Execution in all three phases, player motivation and play calling.

Sporting a -5 turnover ratio while giving up over 500 rushing yards in three losses will sure make you look at things differently.

They will need every bit of coaching they can get for this game against the Falcons. While it is a relief to get some of their Defensive Linemen like Boye Mafe and Byron Murphy back, now the defensive backfield is being hammered by injuries. Starting Cornerbacks Tre Brown and Riq Woolen are out. Safety Rayshawn Jenkins was placed on Injured Reserve. Right Tackle Stone Forsythe will be replaced by Mike Jerrell, who is getting his first-ever NFL snaps in the NFL.

Every team has ‘roster decimation games’ like this at least once or twice a season. It is up to the coaches to know the skills of the healthy players they have available and tailor a game plan accordingly. Primarily that means leaning on and accentuating your personnel’s strengths and minimizing their weaknesses.

It is needed particularly this week, as Atlanta looks very capable at 4-2. After a clunky opening loss to the Steelers, they have won four of five games — including all three of their division games. Their lone loss was to Kansas City and they twice were in the red zone late in the fourth quarter and did not come away with any points in a five point loss.

With a defense that has been far softer than expected, an offense that has too often been one-dimensional and special teams that are almost always an adventure, the Seahawks will need to play smart, tough, dedicated football to come home with a win today.

Those are the real points to keep an eye on:

— Can the defense take good angles and make the tackles they should?

— Can the offense run the ball?

— Can Geno Smith deliver under duress if this game turns into a shootout?

— Can the special teams unit deliver a ‘we’re not the reason we lost the game’ performance?

— If the team gets behind in the game, will see pouting and loafing on the sidelines from their top players?

We will see.

But for now, let us take a look at some of the finer points to watch in this matchup.

Put Pressure on Kirk Cousins – By Any Means Necessary

We have long discussed Cousins’ kryptonite: He is a very poor quarterback when blitzed. To quote from our 2021 article when the Seahawks played the Vikings in Week Three:

In Kirk Cousins’ three-year tenure in Minnesota, you can practically draw a straight line between the amount of pressures the Vikings allow and whether they win the game or not:

Average pressures in a Viking win: 6.9
Average pressures in a Vikings loss: 12.4
But that is just academic, isn’t it? Just about every team in the league can tie winning the game to pressuring the quarterback, right?

What makes Kirk Cousins any different?

This does — when Cousins was blitzed in 2020, his completion percentage dropped from 71.40% to 59.50%.

You read that correctly. He goes from sharpshooter to peashooter when blitzed.

Has he gotten better since then? Has the move to Atlanta remedied that weakness?

Good heavens no. In fact, he has gotten worse.

When Cousins is not blitzed, he completes 69.1% of his passes.

When he is blitzed? That number drops to a horrid 55.8%.

There are several reasons why this is the case.

Cousins has found a lot of success getting rid of the ball as quickly as possible to avoid pressure. He has always had playmakers to work with. If he can get the ball in their hands, they will make things happen. There are some plays that are pure rhythm. Snap, drop, throw. The Seahawks will need the occasional press play from their corners to disrupt his timing.

Another reason is he is not an off-script playmaker nearly to the extent other NFL quarterbacks are. He has one scramble in six games so far. For one yard. It is just not his game to extend plays and torch defenses when things break down.

And the third – and maybe the biggest reason – is he does not have the natural arm talent other top quarterbacks have. If he is throwing it more than 15 yards in the air, he needs his full windup in order to get it there in time. Bullying offensive linemen into his field of vision takes a good chunk of his arm out of the game.

Look at an example of what happens when he has time:

Tampa Bay has gotten no rush with their front four and Cousins has time to scan the field and really put some mustard on the pass. He puts it where only Mooney can make a play – with three defenders in close proximity – and nails it.

That is Cousins’ game in a nutshell. Quick throws to playmakers and when his immediate first read is not available, he will pick you apart.

If he has time.

Given this data, would you rather as a rule flood coverage in an effort to assist your depleted backfield? Or sprinkle in some blitzes to get him off his game? I would select the latter.

Notice a typical example of what happens when he is not comfortable:

He cannot step into his throw due to the lineman in his face. He loses velocity and throws an easy interception.

Geno Smith can make that throw flat-footed. Cousins cannot.

Armed with this long-standing catalog of Cousins’ trouble facing pressure, teams should be arming themselves to the teeth and blitzing at every opportunity.

They are not.

Only two starting quarterbacks in the entire NFL are being blitzed less-often than Cousins: Patrick Mahomes and Sam Darnold. Is there a reason those two do not get blitzed much? There is. They eat blitzes alive. Both are far more efficient when being blitzed than in normal rush.

This is one of the NFL’s greatest market inefficiencies in 2024. The Seahawks absolutely must take advantage in order to keep this offense in check. If they can do it with just Mafe, Williams, Hall and Murphy, all the better. But some well-timed blitzes will pour some gas on the fire.

A word on what kind of blitzing is needed: In that 2021 game, the Seahawks blitzed Cousins 11 times but were mostly ineffective. Why? They often tried delayed blitzes, and by the time the rusher got near Cousins, the ball was gone. The defense could not match up tight coverage with the blitz and Cousins often found the open man.

You can see on the Mooney touchdown that Anthony Nelson tried a stunt and was way too late to make a difference.

Mike Macdonald can disguise his blitzes, but they have to fire off at the snap and not be the long-developing Sunday drive types of blitzes. They very rarely work with Cousins.

Take What the Falcons Defense Gives You

Just as the potent Falcon offense is a concern for Seahawks fans, Falcons fans are rightly worried about how the Seahawks will attack their defense with their multiplicity of weapons.

And like the Seahawks’ new staff, they have a first-time Defensive Coordinator who made his bones in the college game (old Husky friend Jimmy Lake). How is it going so far?

Not unlike the Seahawks. Players are trying to grasp their roles, Lake is sticking to his principles and trusting that success will come. A big, big benefit they have going for them is the high-powered offense. The defense has not had to frequently make a big play to turn the game around. Just keep things in front of them and let the offense do its job.

Lake is employing a ‘bend don’t break’ philosophy that many Seahawks fans are familiar with: allow the smaller stuff, protect explosive deep passes and play the odds. In the red zone, use the shortened field to your advantage and keep them out of the end zone. Asking offenses to run 10-15 plays to get a touchdown is playing the odds that teams will eventually sputter and not be able to gain ten yards in three plays.

The result is a very intriguing mix:

— On the ground, they are in the middle of the pack in yards per rush but bottom 10 in rush attempts against and rushing yards per game. What is happening? They one of the NFL’s worst at conceding rushing first downs. So, they cannot get off the field when the defensive line needs to just man up and make a stop. They badly miss Calais Campbell. They can be run on, with patience and persistence.

— In the air, the philosophy is even more evident. They are top ten in passing yards conceded but middle of the pack in passing attempts against. The Falcons pass rush is almost non-existent with only five sacks in six games and a 14% pressure rate. They are conceding a 73.15% completion rate. I had to rub my eyes and do a double-take on that number.

As a result, they have only given up eleven plays of 20 yards or more, the lowest in the NFL. Eight of those are passes and three are rushes. (The flipside is, the Falcons offense is one of the worst teams in the NFL in terms of time of possession.)

All of this does not mean the Seahawks must abandon the explosive nature of their offense and just plod down the field with dink and dunk type plays. It does mean that the Seahawks should liberally apply the run to their mix and tenderize this defense and then implement some play-action and let Geno survey the field with all the time he will have.

A 22 for 26 day for 275 yards and 2/3 touchdowns complemented by 30 rushes for 140 yards or so would be just what the doctor ordered.

Patience will be the key. If the Falcons are happy to give the Seahawks crossing patterns and short slants and other in-breaking routes, take them. Give the defense some time to rest and be ready to attack the Falcon offense.

And then when they get into the red zone, overwhelm them with talent.

Like this:

Why the Seahawks need to commit to being the team they say they want to be

October 15, 2024 / / 0 Comments

The Seattle Seahawks are spending $41.5m on receivers this season.

That’s 16.5% of their entire cap space. No other position on the team is carrying a higher percentage.

Here’s the top-five:

Wide receiver — 16.5%
D-line — 14.6%
Quarterback — 10.9%
Linebacker — 10.6%
Secondary — 10%

In comparison, the offensive line is only taking up 8.8% of the cap.

These numbers will obviously change in time. If Charles Cross receives a contract extension in the next 18 months, that O-line number will go up dramatically.

Yet the fact receiver is currently the most expensive position on the team speaks to Seattle’s identity crisis.

For a long time now they’ve seemingly been intending to build a physical football team. John Schneider once talked about becoming the bullies again, following the LOB era. Schneider was mentored by Ron Wolf — a GM whose main philosophy was to commit to the trenches.

When Schneider and Pete Carroll took over the intention was to try and emulate Pittsburgh and Baltimore — at the time the two most physically imposing teams in the NFL.

I don’t think anything changed switching from Carroll to Mike Macdonald. He’s from Baltimore. He knows the emphasis they place on toughness.

Macdonald has spoken about the running game being integral to the identity of the team and the philosophy. Ryan Grubb says the same. The Seahawks didn’t appoint the defensive coordinator from the Baltimore Ravens to run a finesse football team.

Yet despite having ambitions to be tough, physical and built in the image of the AFC North, the Seahawks continue to appear finesse.

The offensive line being as bad as it is isn’t helping. Here’s the thing though — PFF has the Seahawks as the sixth worst pass blocking team in the league. Their run blocking grade is 16th — right in the middle. Based on that small sample, they’d be better off running the ball more. Yet they’ve had more than one half or full game this year where the run has been a total afterthought.

I think this is partly due to the construction of the team. When you pay D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett a combined cap hit of $33.9m, then throw in the 20th overall pick into the mix, there’s a pressure for that investment to pay off. Not only that, there’s everything that comes with not feeding your receivers. The media will point out when players aren’t getting targets. Receivers, more than any other position, are conscious about how they’re being used.

In the meantime, so much investment at this position instead of the offensive line is also directly impacting your ability to function as a passing offense, because the line is playing so badly.

The end result is a very expensive arsenal of weapons, featuring within a streaky offense. Meanwhile, the O-line features two cheap struggling guards, a third-stringer at right tackle and a center coming off a serious injury that they clearly felt they had no choice but to take a chance on.

Team-building isn’t straight forward and there’s nothing ideal about it. If you or I, god forbid, took over the running of a team tomorrow — you wouldn’t be able to just say ‘we’re taking linemen early and often’. Would you turn down a great player with a far higher grade at a different position, to force-pick a guard instead, purely on a point of principal? Of course not.

There isn’t an offensive lineman who would’ve been noticeably better than Devon Witherspoon or Jaxon Smith-Njigba in round one last year. The year prior, they did take an offensive lineman with the #9 pick.

This is something to consider when criticising the team. It’s not always as simple as committing to a position group in the draft. You are beholden to what’s available when you pick.

However, there have been some odd decisions recently. Why pay Noah Fant — effectively more of a pass-catching threat than a blocking tight end — if you don’t intend to feature a dynamic pass-catcher at the position? Why did they pass on a cluster of reasonable center prospects that have been available beyond round one over the years, instead choosing to have a different starter virtually every season? Why be aggressive in a trade for a box safety but not as aggressive in the free agent market for offensive linemen — especially given the annual problems with the unit?

It’s not even really about what’s happened in the past. The most important thing is what happens next. Are they going to do anything differently?

For example, they face a decision in the off-season over Metcalf. The top receivers are signing new contracts worth between $30-35m a year at the moment. Can you seriously make that level of investment in him?

They have to do something because his cap hit in 2025 is $31.8m. They basically have to pay him or trade him. So what do you do? Can you legitimately build an identity based around quality and physicality in the trenches, while also paying so much at receiver?

When Joe Hortiz and Jim Harbaugh took over the Chargers, they made it clear what they were going to do. They let Mike Williams walk and traded away Keenan Allen. They prioritised keeping Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack instead. They then drafted a right tackle with a top-five pick and were happy to add a cheap receiver in round two.

The plan to turn LA into another Harbaugh machine is very much underway and isn’t going to be knocked off course. Whether they succeed or not, I bet by 2025 the Chargers will look like Michigan and the 49ers under Harbaugh. They will be the opposite of finesse.

Are the Seahawks willing to do the same? Are they prepared to make some difficult decisions and shift investment into the offensive line and prioritise that area? Will they speculate to accumulate up front in a way they’ve been hesitant to do so — with the GM even admitting in a now infamous statement that interior linemen are often ‘over-drafted and over-paid’?

Part of me wonders if that was a smokescreen, given it emerged they had their eye on JC Latham in the draft (a player who could’ve easily ended up at guard, at least this year, having already signed George Fant to play right tackle in Abe Lucas’ absence). Regardless, they’re going to have to do more this off-season to rectify the major problem area they face.

Maybe there’s a way to keep Metcalf and still fix the O-line? Possibly. They’re tight against the cap though. What are the other solutions?

I don’t think it’s beyond the realms of possibility there’s a shift to a cheaper quarterback. It’s hardly the most outrageous suggestion that Schneider isn’t the biggest backer of Geno Smith. Lest we forget the ‘he’s the starter until he isn’t’ comment from a few months ago. Dre’Mont Jones might be playing his way into a painful financial divorce for the team. How much longer will Tyler Locket play on for? You can’t justify another year of Noah Fant in his current role (I’d trade him now if possible — it’d be best for both parties).

You can do a lot with $30m. You can do even more with $30m and a decent draft pick or two. These are things you have to consider. What is the best way to establish your identity and create a winner? Is it extending Metcalf or investing elsewhere?

It’s not just the O-line that needs work either. Clearly the defense is still badly lacking in certain areas too.

It’s why I think plodding along isn’t really a solution. The team in more or less its current form has shown it can be an eight or nine win outfit under Carroll and it’s trending that way again at 3-3 under Macdonald. You can do that every year if you want, or you can try and change things.

My feeling is if you want to be a trenches team built in the image of the old Pittsburgh and Baltimore outfits, do it. If like Harbaugh in LA you want to be built to win up front, shape your roster that way.

There’s nothing worse than intending to do something and then positioning yourself to do the opposite. At times the Seahawks appear to have a really muddled identity and I think this is the main reason why. They want to make a pumpkin pie and they’ve bought the ingredients for a chocolate cake.

If they turn around in the off-season and say, ‘right — it’s time to sort these lines out once and for all’ and commit to doing it, however painful that might be at other positions, I’m all for it.

I don’t see the Seahawks ever lifting a Lombardi Trophy in their current design. I can’t imagine a Smith-to-Metcalf Super Bowl winning touchdown moment. I think if they’re ever going to contend they’re going to need three key ingredients:

1. A really good O-line
2. At least one game-wrecking defender
3. A quarterback capable of winning the lot

It might be time to accept that currently, they have some good players. They have some players — Ken Walker for example — who could be great. But they don’t necessarily have sufficient quality in the areas they need to create their preferred identity, or win big in the NFL.

Changing things can take time. So why wait any longer than you have to?

Scouting notes week seven: Quinn Ewers returns, Donovan Jackson & Iowa center impress again, TE’s excel and more

October 13, 2024 / / 0 Comments

Here’s what stood out to me in week seven:

— Quinn Ewers looked incredibly rusty in his return to action for Texas. His accuracy was off all day and it’s a credit to the rest of the team that they still dominated Oklahoma.

It started poorly and never really got going for Ewers. On a 3rd and 14 on his first drive he did well to step into the pocket but then fired way over an open receiver. It led to a gift of an interception for the deep defender. An awful throw.

He then misfired on a third down on his second drive — showing uncharacteristic impatience and rushing an inaccurate throw short to a wide open receiver down the middle of the field. If he keeps his composure there, it’s an easy touchdown.

You kept waiting for the rust to be knocked off and his best form to emerge, especially since Oklahoma offered so little resistance. It never came.

This game alone won’t impact evaluations but teams will be eager to see him play a lot better. He gets a game’s grace after returning from injury. Next week he plays Georgia and then the week after he travels to Vanderbilt. It’s no exaggeration to suggest those two games might define his stock — as well as any potential run in the playoffs.

— Wisconsin left tackle Jack Nelson is an underrated offensive lineman we’ve talked about a lot. I thought he did a really good job against Rutgers yesterday, again highlighting why he’s worthy of our attention.

Nelson dominated the edge rushers he faced showing off great footwork to protect the blindside of his quarterback. His footwork was textbook, he never lost balance and you could see how controlled his hands and body were as they worked together.

However, he isn’t a left tackle. Later in the game Rutgers started testing him with some inside moves and he struggled. He did a passable job at trying to recover and regain an angle but you could see Rutgers were targeting him with this tactic. It suggests he oversets to the edge and isn’t a natural to play the blindside.

I’m not overly concerned by this though because I think his home is at guard. When he can play square, attach himself to a defender and finish, he’s very good. I think he has plus potential kicking inside and could be a value pick on day two.

— While Miami’s Cam Ward has shown in recent games that old habits die hard, Saturday’s game between Alabama and South Carolina was a further sign that people talking up Jalen Milroe as a high first round pick need to chill their beans.

He is still showing no signs of an ability to sit in the pocket, process and move the chains. He had an awful, jittery overthrow on a screen pass that was almost picked off when facing a little pressure. He struggles on third downs in the pocket. He continues to play in a ‘one read and run’ style that is not transferable.

Milroe gave up a safety drifting back into his own end zone then throwing at the feet of an offensive lineman with no receiver in the area. It was terrible awareness. He had a horrendous interception before half-time — throwing into coverage with what should’ve been the last play of the half, gifting South Carolina a field goal after they returned the ball into range.

He then threw another bloody awful interception at the start of the fourth quarter — leaning back, lofting the ball to the back of the end zone. There are two defenders clearly waiting to pick the ball off. This is just bad quarterback play.

Why were people touting a place him for the top-10? Just because he ran around well against Georgia? His only passing touchdown in the game was a wide open easy throw on a blown coverage.

There are things to like about Milroe. He has excellent character, he’s clearly a brilliant athlete and as a runner he can be really dynamic. His arm strength is good and it enables him to make plays downfield. However, he is not showing technical improvement like many are suggesting, he shows no evidence of any progressions, pocket savvy or technical quality. He is a one-read passer who will set off running if the read isn’t open.

Milroe requires major work for the next level and will need time operating with a great offensive leader. He warrants a day two grade for his physical upside but he’s a long way off all of the first round and top-10 chatter some in draft media were chucking out there.

From the same game, I thought Kyle Lennard — who we’ve talked about before — had a terrific game. He slipped inside to push the lineman back using power. He attacked the edge with quickness and burst. He’s comfortable mushing his rush to play read/react. Kennard has done as much as anyone to upgrade his stock this year and he should be in the day two conversation pre-testing and Senior Bowl. He finished with two sacks and three TFL’s. TJ Sanders also commanded plenty of respect from Alabama and the undersized Tonka Hemingway had a nice sack. South Carolina has some quality players on defense.

— Iowa center Logan Jones had another extremely impressive game against Washington. He dominated the interior, using his low center of gravity and explosive power to attack opponents off the snap. I’ve spoken to NFL evaluators about what they look for in a center and the common refrain is they want someone who shoots his hands quickly and plays in attack mode. That’s what Jones does. He drove UW defenders off the line and a lot of Kaleb Johnson’s best runs were up the gut. He also shows off a strong back to drop the anchor. Jones is definitely one to watch. I have him graded in round two.

Exceptional running back Kaleb Johnson also had another blistering day. He is silky smooth and almost glides when he gets an opening. He snakes through gaps with great agility, has the hip work to create big gains and he can cut and explode upfield. He also has the size and desire to finish runs. Johnson is a terrific playmaker and the clear RB2 in this draft with legit big-time NFL potential. I think he’s a top-50 prospect in the 2025 class.

— Penn State tight end Tyler Warren has been on our radar for weeks and we’ve discussed how he’d played his way into fringe first round consideration. He flashed again on Saturday, recording 224 receiving yards in an overtime win against USC.

He’s used virtually as a #1 target. Drew Allar constantly looks for him. It does need to be mentioned that they kept running the same pick/screen to Warren that USC had no idea how to stop. He got a lot of joy from a concept the NFL wouldn’t be toiling with to this extent. However, he can also move around the formation to find soft spots in coverage. He’s a good athlete and he’s tremendously reliable with his hands — making several highlight-reel catches this season.

His touchdown was an incredible contested grab on a 40-yard trick-play downfield. He finished every run after the catch with a thumping hit. Warren also showed agility weaving through traffic. Penn State line him up under center too for throwing trickery or direct snaps/runs. Only Ashton Jeanty has played as consistently well as Warren this season.

Allar threw three interceptions in another performance that just reminded me of my favourite comp — Mike Glennon. The first pick was a poor throw into coverage over the middle. He doesn’t ID the defender and it’s a really poor decision. The second pick — again I don’t understand what he’s reading. He threw into traffic, it’s a tipped pass and it’s picked off. You can’t make these throws. The third interception was a poor attempt at a Hail Mary that didn’t reach the end zone.

In fairness to Allar, he did make two huge 4th down conversions late in the game to keep Penn State alive. Yet his touchdowns were only the double pass to Warren who did all the work in the end zone and a check-down to Nicholas Singleton on a blown coverage. I find it difficult to muster much enthusiasm for Allar and still view him as a day three pick.

— Garrett Nussmeier is a baller. He made some mistakes against Ole Miss but just kept firing back. The errors didn’t get to him and when LSU needed a ballsy throw in a big moment, he delivered.

We’ve talked about how he’s technically the best quarterback eligible for next year and he showed that again here. He doesn’t have massive traits but he’s adept at throwing with anticipation and timing, he makes more NFL-level throws than any other QB in college football and in this contest he showed he can win a big game for his team when the pressure’s on.

Look at the pocket awareness on this throw, keeping his eyes downfield and executing:

This is a NFL play. He shifts away from the pressure and navigates the defender well, keeps his eyes downfield and executes the pass.

On the fourth down touchdown throw to tie the game with seconds remaining, look at the anticipation on this throw:

His footwork actually isn’t great here, he’s hopping to his left for no reason and it takes some velocity off the pass. He actually ends up throwing across his body — not ideal. Yet look at the anticipation and the ability to still execute. The receiver is nowhere to be seen when he releases the ball and it is perfect accuracy to the spot he’s running into.

Here’s the standard broadcast view of the touchdown. There are 30 seconds remaining and it’s 4th and 5. This is the ball game right here:

Nussmeier actually has a lot more natural talent than I think people are giving him credit for. Look at this throw. It’s perfect placement, off-structure and improvised with his footwork. It’s an incredible pass:

In the post-game press conference Nussmeier called it ‘one of the worst games of his career’. He won his team the game and he’s pissed off about the turnovers. I like that. He isn’t flawless and the mistakes and lack of elite traits prevent you from going all-in on a top draft projection. At the moment I have him in round two. I don’t think he’ll declare and will likely prefer a second season starting at LSU — unless he leads a great playoff run and wants to strike while the iron’s hot. However, there is talent here and a technical quality that is beyond most college passers.

One thing I am wary of though is a lack of mobility. Increasingly in the NFL I think the ability to scramble, extend and create is important. Brock Purdy, not known as a mad scrambler, is showing he can do it this season and his game has reached a new level. Nussmeier is very much a pocket passer. Whenever the Seahawks do ultimately draft a young quarterback, I’d ideally like that player to be able to get out of the pocket and avoid pressure when necessary. Not at the expense of being a terrible pocket passer though — and that is where Nussmeier excels.

Another note from this game — LSU tight end Mason Taylor is a really interesting player within this star-studded TE class. If the top players declare, we could see 5-7 tight ends taken in the first two rounds.

— Last week we highlighted UNLV’s brilliant receiver Ricky White III. He had another excellent outing on Saturday, gaining 138 yards and two touchdowns on seven receptions. It doesn’t matter whether he’s well covered or not — he makes spectacular, difficult catches downfield. He has ample speed. His body control is excellent. His body type really reminds me of Nuk Hopkins. He has a similar level of sophistication in his route running and concentration too. For me he’s a top-50 talent in this draft class and a good Senior Bowl and combine could propel him into round one. He’s one of the best kept secrets in the 2025 draft.

— Donovan Jackson had a disappointing 2024 season but I thought the Ohio State guard had his best game in a long time last weekend and he followed it up against Oregon. He was powerful and drove opponents off the ball consistently. They often ran to his side and he made key blocks on an early fourth down conversion and a touchdown run by quarterback Will Howard. He pulled to the right side with ease and connected with his blocks in the open field. He stood up well in pass-pro — holding blocks for long stretches to allow the QB a good pocket to throw from. Jackson was beaten on a quick inside move that ended in a forced fumble but it was the only real blemish. He has excellent physical tools and an ideal body type for the position. He looks like the player who once garnered first round chatter and based on the last two games, he’s a top-45 pick. That’s good news for teams in need of a good, young left guard. It’d be something to be quite enthusiastic about if the Seahawks hadn’t suddenly shown they are far further away from contention than simply adding one highly drafted guard.

There was some bad news from the game — Ohio state left tackle Josh Simmons, my top rated tackle on the horizontal board, suffered a suspected season-ending knee injury.

— Nothing sums Shedeur Sanders up better than the sequence that saw him give up an avoidable grounding penalty for a big loss, only to then come roaring back on a 2nd and 28 to complete the perfect touch pass downfield for a first down, only to then throw a lousy interception over the middle. Sanders is very much a ‘yes! no! yes! no!’ type of player. He has all the talent in the world and can make things happen. He also makes big mistakes — none more so than his preference to throw downfield at inopportune times. For example, there was a 4th and 5 situation with the game on the line. He took the snap, assessed his options and then threw a downfield fade to the right sideline. There’s a minute to go. It’s not the time for a deep shot — move the chains. Keep the game alive.

This is already not a good class at the top of round one with a dearth of legit top-10 players. The quarterbacks not elevating to gain position in that range isn’t helping.

It’s also worth noting that Travis Hunter left the Colorado/Kansas State game with an injury. There’s no news on how serious it is. DJ Giddens, Kansas State’s tremendous running back, had a typically productive game. He has a little Alvin Kamara to his game. I think he’s RB3 and a top-70 pick.

— Boise State’s Heisman favourite Ashton Jeanty ran for another 217 yards, this time adding 20 receiving yards, to go with two touchdowns. He again ran with physicality, running over defenders, and had a big 54-yard rush. He’s a top-10 pick.

I am considering posting where my horizontal board is currently, at least through rounds 1-3, at some point this week. I haven’t watched every player and there’s still time for others to elevate their stock. But I want to show where I have certain players graded as things stand.

Why the Seahawks are already facing a critical period under the new regime

October 11, 2024 / / 0 Comments

Ill-disciplined, dysfunctional football leading to a three-game losing streak where the opponents combine for 519 rushing yards. It wasn’t supposed to be this way.

So what’s gone wrong and what’s the state of the Seahawks franchise?

1. They don’t have enough quality players

The 49ers can line Nick Bosa up every down and believe in good faith he’ll impact the play. They know Fred Warner, on any given snap, could make something happen. Increasingly they can rely on their quarterback to be far more than a game-manager. Brock Purdy is becoming a legit dynamo as a playmaker.

The Seahawks, with all their draft stock spent and free agent money invested, do not have any blue-chip players. Tony Gonzalez made this point on Amazon pre-game. He claimed the Seahawks don’t have any all-pro’s. I saw the aggregate accounts populating Seahawks twitter having a field day with this, mocking Gonzalez.

He’s right though, isn’t he? Who are Seattle’s special players?

Over the years they’ve neither used a top-10 pick on a superstar like Bosa, nor have they struck gold in the later rounds. When John Schneider and Pete Carroll built the LOB era they constantly found diamonds. Drafting Earl Thomas early, then Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman later on. Finding a franchise quarterback in round three. Trading for Marshawn Lynch, a genuine world class running back and culture/tone setter.

The Seahawks have some good players, some average players, some bad players and some underachieving ones. There’s a distinct lack of greatness, though.

Until they acquire those players, they’ll continue to be a team that is too good to be horrible yet not good enough to be taken seriously as a post-season threat. That’s not a good place to be if you want your football team to play meaningful games after New Year’s Eve.

2. Too many players flatter to deceive

It’s clear there are players on Seattle’s roster that have the physical capability to be better than they’re currently showing. Some failed to live up to their potential under the Carroll regime. The hope was that the change in staff could unlock them and they turn into blue-chippers.

Sadly it isn’t happening. D.K. Metcalf, for example, remains an occasionally brilliant, often frustrating commodity. If he wants to achieve greatness he has to dominate a decimated San Francisco secondary. He failed. The inability to come back to the ball on the underthrown deep-pass before half-time and beast the defender to either make the catch or draw a penalty summed up the worst of Metcalf. Mike Evans makes that play. Metcalf regularly doesn’t. He’s rarely unstoppable, despite his outstanding physical traits.

Ken Walker is showing that physically he might be the best running back in the NFL at the moment. Yet in the last two games they haven’t been able to get him going. Against the Giants they basically ignored the run. Against the 49ers they asked him to bang his head against a brick wall up the gut early and often. Compare this to the 49ers who, even with their injury issues at running back and mediocre O-line, were able to spring massive gains. The Niners achieved 6.9 yards per carry compared to Seattle’s meagre 2.6 yesterday.

Nobody sums up the frustrating tease of this roster more than Dre’Mont Jones, though. A big-ticket free agent in 2023, most fans celebrated his addition. Finally, the Seahawks made a splash on the market. They’d needed an impact, versatile defender like this for a long time. Now they had one.

Jones has been a big waste of money. Making it worse is the way they doubled down on his contract in the off-season. It’s now more expensive to move on from him. He received a pathetic 32.9 grade against the 49ers. His grade for the season is 50.1. He’s grading badly both versus the run (50.8) and as a pass rusher (58.4).

He’s been an epic disappointment. There had to be some hope that Mike Macdonald could get him going but if anything, he looks worse than last season. His cap hit next year is an eye-watering $25.6m. It’s projected to be 9% of Seattle’s entire cap space. Cutting him would cost you $14m in dead money.

Both Jones’ signing and the decision to push some of his money into the future go down as huge gaffes by the front office. He’s their biggest ever outside free agent splash and he’s just become a financial dead weight. Jones is a honking disappointment and embodies the way this roster has plenty of athletic potential but is largely ineffective.

3. The coaches are struggling

This isn’t a big surprise. When you appoint a rookie Head Coach with only two years’ experience as a NFL defensive coordinator, an offensive leader who’s never even coached in the NFL, a defensive coordinator whose only experience previously was as a position coach and a special teams coordinator who only previously did this job in college — growing pains are inevitable.

However, things are starting to unravel. The concern has to be — do they have the capability to stop the rot? Will things continue to regress? Is Leslie Frazier’s presence enough at this point? Do they actually know what to do in this situation — tactically, emotionally and in terms of man-management?

Part of my problem with the latter years of the Carroll regime was their inability to fix glaring issues. The answers were never forthcoming to persistent problems. We’re seeing it again now.

Seattle’s fundamentals are a disaster. They aren’t doing the basics right as individuals, meaning the team frequently is collapsing with no foundation on both sides of the ball. That’s why we’re seeing so many back-breaking mistakes. At the same time — things that should be par for the course such as an ability to tackle, get off a block occasionally, complete an easy third down pass, field a kick, make a routine block or catch the football aren’t happening anywhere near enough.

Macdonald is starting to sound exasperated during press conferences, in part because I don’t think he knows what to do. He’s never been in this position before. At Baltimore it was always fairly plain-sailing. Now he’s facing true adversity and the buck stops with him. He probably can’t recall moments in his career to know how to handle a situation where a lot of things are going wrong at the same time.

You start to wonder if the players feel it too. Metcalf ripping off the headset of a coach to yell at Ryan Grubb was a terrible look and it suggests there might be eroding trust — perhaps from both sides. Geno Smith, meanwhile, looked miserable on the sidelines and he was tetchy in his post-game press conference.

The Seahawks invested in freshness within their staff and clearly hoped that talent and ideas would make up for a lack of ‘been there, done that’ experience. At the moment they look like they’re on the bike but aren’t ready to take the training wheels off.

It’s a little bit worrying because for all the ‘defensive Sean McVay’ tags being attached to Macdonald, there’s little evidence on the field to back that up. His defense stinks, as does the cumulative team product. McVay went 11-5 in his first season as Head Coach of the Rams and won coach of the year. He helped Todd Gurley win offensive player of the season. He famously embarrassed the Carroll Seahawks 42-7 in week 15 — ending the LOB era as we knew it in the process.

Sometimes you realise quickly when you’ve won the coach lottery.

McVay started 7-2 in year one with his only losses being a closely fought defeat to the Seahawks and a beating at the hands of Minnesota, who finished the year 13-3 and reached the NFC Championship game.

Macdonald’s start in Seattle feels very different.

The new regime deserves a period of grace but it doesn’t last forever. Even if we all have to resign ourselves to this being year-one of a structural rebuild and/or transition to bigger roster changes in the future — you still need to see an improvement on what we’re witnessing at the moment.

The fundamentals can’t be this bad. You can’t give the impression you’re a bit lost for much longer. You need to find answers and solutions so that even if you’re going to lose a game, you don’t lose like they are at the moment.

Players and fans need a reason to believe that the people captaining the ship will get you to the shore.

4. The franchise needs a kick up the arse

I remember my first visit to what is now known as Lumen Field. It was a 2006 encounter against the Packers on Monday Night Football. There were a few fans from Green Bay present but make no mistake, they were heavily outnumbered.

The atmosphere was electric and the noise deafening. It was a special environment to watch a game of football and it’s why I became addicted to the Seahawks from the minute the 12th Man Flag was raised that night.

Now look at the place. Primetime games are filled with away fans. The sea of red in the lower decks was again prominent on TV. I bet it was even worse in person. The 49ers fans could be heard loudly chanting ‘let’s go Niners’ at the end.

In the last four seasons where fans have been in the stands, Seattle’s home record is a terrible 19-18. This doesn’t include the Covid season of 2020 when no fans attended games. In that period, their road record is 20-16.

However it has happened, Seattle’s home-field advantage is gone. The mystique of Lumen Field is no longer there. It’s a fading force. I think teams actually relish visiting these days — especially the well-backed clubs with armies of travelling fans paying for the expensive re-sale tickets.

There are other things I could discuss in this section of the article but to me it feels like the franchise on the whole is going through a period of malaise. They’re not terrible or anything like the Panthers. They’re not good either, like the 49ers. This feels like a franchise that deserves to have a 19-18 home record. In every sense, that’s what they are at the moment. Middle of the road. Unexciting. Kind of making up the numbers.

5. How do they get better?

This is the big question and I’m afraid, there’s no obvious fix. It’s not as simple as ‘just draft amazing players’. Well yeah. Everyone’s trying to do that.

The 2025 draft class, as we’ve often discussed, isn’t loaded at the top end. If they end up picking in the top-half of round one again, it might be tricky to identify a player worthy of a big investment.

Then you start to wonder what they should be trying to do. Is it just a case of build up the O-line? Maybe — but it’s particularly thin for O-liners projected to go in round one. How do you fix the glaring defensive issues we’re seeing every week? Geno Smith just turned 34 and remains, to me at least, a pure bridge to the future. Do they need to finally draft a quarterback early? But do you do that in 2025 when the options are not mind-blowing?

The Seahawks had an opportunity to build something with the haul from the Russell Wilson trade but that stock is now spent. How you travel from what they are now to the next step is extremely difficult to map out.

In the meantime, unless they fix things on the field, further question marks will be asked about the players and staff. The GM John Schneider is starting to get heat because he’s the consistent feature remaining from the last regime.

It’s not a great place to be at the moment. There are only a few teams more in need of some reassuring, nerve-calming wins and better performances to just settle everything down.

When the other teams in your division can show an ability to compete and beat the 49ers, even when they’re banged up, and all you do is get handily beaten to the tune of six straight defeats — all while being so fundamentally ragged and losing three-in-a-row — it’s inevitable that concern will grow.

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