Author: Rob Staton (Page 1 of 398)

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The Geno Smith discourse is impacting my enjoyment of this football season.

Some of you will think this is mad. Others will agree, perhaps silently. I’ll try and explain what I mean.

Immediately after the 49ers win, it started.

If you think Smith is elite, a franchise quarterback, ‘the guy‘, ‘him‘, worthy of a massive extension at the soonest possible moment or something else along these lines, congratulations. You officially “know ball“.

It’s also, it seems, really important that you make everyone else who may not entirely share your argument know that they are idiots.

Just ignore it, you might say. There’s no escape from it. People you follow on social media will dabble in this. Or they’ll retweet people who do. You may not wish to unfollow them. Or, you’ll have likeminded folk who share your view send you the occasional screen grab so you can participate in a collective eye roll.

It’s not just one group. When Smith has a bad game, there’s a similar amount of nonsense from the other extreme side of the debate. You’ll get people saying he’s no good, needs to be replaced ASAP, send Sam Howell in for the next game etc.

Every game is just one big toxic opportunity to have it out about Seattle’s quarterback on the internet.

Please, stop.

I’m not claiming to speak for the majority. I do think I speak for a reasonable portion of the fan base though, who fit somewhere between the two extremes on Smith, when I say I am well and truly bored to death by this.

Whether you like it or not, Smith’s future is going to be a storyline for the next off-season. How the rest of this season plays out will determine what eventually happens — but the debate isn’t going anywhere. And neither should it, as we’ll talk about in a bit.

Also whether you like it or not, Smith is clearly a net positive for the Seahawks in 2024. He is far better than Howell and until an obviously superior alternative emerges, there’s a very reasonable chance he will continue to be Seattle’s starter indefinitely.

The sooner we just accept both of these things the better. So much energy is being channeled in a tit-for-tat online battle on this subject and it’s taking a lot of joy out of wins like yesterday. I know I’m not alone in thinking this because several people have said the same thing to me privately — and I suspect others will say the same in the comments section in response to this article.

Personally I think Smith has played mostly very well this year. He’s faced a high degree of adversity because of the poor play of the offensive line and a non-existent running attack. The Seahawks rely a ton on their quarterback in their current form.

Physically he’s extremely impressive, particular for a player who recently turned 34. His arm strength combined with his willingness to attempt throws many quarterbacks wouldn’t dare to attempt makes for an often entertaining outcome, win or lose. There are throws over the last three years from Smith that are legitimately as good as anything you’ll see in the NFL.

There are also moments of erraticism. We saw it with the interception on Sunday. He is tied for the most interceptions in the NFL this year. Some clearly haven’t been his fault but he’s also recorded 11 turnover worthy plays in his last eight games per PFF. He does feel like a player who will give an opponent a decent shot at a turnover per game.

From about six games into the 2022 season, I’ve consistently said I’m perfectly happy with Geno Smith being Seattle’s starter until a clear, superior option comes along. I’m not sure that player is in the 2025 draft. If he is, it won’t be right away as a rookie. They may well draft someone to develop but I think it’s a near certainty they won’t be taking a quarterback next April in round one with the intention of starting them next year.

Equally, I don’t see a clear upgrade on the veteran market either. I don’t think the Seahawks should ‘get rid’ of Smith just because he’s maybe not as trendy or young as some other quarterbacks. The Chiefs played a blinder trading for Alex Smith and then biding their time to draft Patrick Mahomes. Eventually, the Seahawks will probably have to do something similar. But there’s no rush. They don’t ‘have‘ to do that in 2025. With Smith, they can wait for a player they love, not force a bad decision to aggressively pursue someone they only like.

While taking this approach, I am still sceptical that Smith will lead the Seahawks to the promise land. At the very least he will need a top supporting cast. I appreciate virtually every other quarterback is in the same boat. The thing is, the Seahawks aren’t close to having a top supporting cast. In order to build that, they might need to create the cap space and resource to construct a team that is placed to be a serious contender.

Overthecap has the Seahawks $15m in the red next season for effective cap space. It’s unavoidable to discuss what is best for the future of the team, with a fair amount of money saving required. Should they extend D.K. Metcalf’s contract and commit a major salary to a receiver? Do they need to make difficult decisions on players like Uchenna Nwosu and Dre’Mont Jones? Is it inevitable that franchise favourite Tyler Lockett is coming to the end of his time in Seattle?

Everything should be on the table — including the debate over Smith’s future. He is due $38.5m next year, with a further $2m inevitably on the cards when he hits the yardage escalator in his contract. It’s nothing to do with Smith’s perceived quality that you have a conversation about his future, much in the way you’re not questioning Metcalf over his.

How do the timelines of Smith and Metcalf’s peak years aline with Seattle’s ability to build a team to contend? Let’s say you pay them $45m and $32m a year respectively for the next three years. You secure their futures but will it prevent you from doing much of anything to make changes to key areas such as the offensive line and defense? Are you ultimately going to be left with the same team that has gone 9-8, 9-8 and now 5-5 over the last two-and-a-half seasons?

That isn’t to say you definitely can’t keep both, extend their contracts and still improve the team. The point is, simply, that any conversation should be on the table. The Seahawks are not in a healthy cap situation and the reality is it might take 2-3 years to get into a position where they are good enough in key areas to be a serious contender. By that point, Geno Smith will be 37. Is paying a massive contract at quarterback, with the team in its current form, the best plan? It might well be — but there’s nothing wrong with considering alternatives. After all, the team swapped one expensive quarterback (Russell Wilson) for a much cheaper one (Geno Smith) in 2022 and didn’t suffer.

Also, what amount becomes ‘too much’ for Smith? The current trend in the NFL is to give any quarterback who has either been drafted early or shown any promise an enormous deal. Is that the right approach to take? Or should teams set out to try and find greater value at the position, as the Seahawks did in 2022? The Vikings and Steelers are doing well with a cheaper approach to the position this year, while well-coached rookies are also succeeding.

Adding to this is the fact Smith is contracted for 2025. The Seahawks, technically, don’t have to do anything. Given Smith’s age, it won’t be a terrible plan to go year-by-year. He’s next scheduled to be a free agent in 2026, the year he turns 36. Given he didn’t have a hot free agency market in 2023, it might be best to let him establish his market in the future — if indeed the situation remains as it is today in about 15 months time.

None of this feels unreasonable to me. Yet online there is this quite aggressive undercurrent from a select number of people with prominent followings. The term ‘Geno haters’ is used frequently. It’s often implied you are pretty stupid, ignorant or simply don’t know anything about football unless you believe Smith is essentially Seattle’s answer to Josh Allen.

And again, I understand there are also fans who refuse to accept Smith ever plays well or is deserving of praise. For whatever reason though, they seem easier to ignore. They tend to be people with small (or no) followings. They aren’t on podcasts, streams, blogs or work for big media outlets. They aren’t names within Seahawks twitter. They are, by and large, just a very vocal minority.

They definitely contribute to the energy draining experience of this whole debate but I do hold the other side mostly responsible. They are far more aggressive and personal.

The Seahawks win a big game? Great. Time to put on your armour and go to war with everyone who doesn’t share your view on Geno Smith. It’s time for battle. Charge! Hand me that smart phone, I’m going in.

Maybe it’s just shit-posting and I’ve fallen into the trap? Maybe it’s doing whatever works for content creation and views/clicks? Maybe it’s just important to associate yourself with a ‘take’ these days? Whatever it is, it’s making this team less fun to follow.

I remember the days when a great win was celebrated together. Everyone just sharing the joy of victory. It’s starting to feel like some people are more invested in their position on Geno Smith than they are actually being a Seahawks fan.

I suppose it’s not surprising, though. This is the same fanbase that drew battle lines over ‘running backs don’t matter’ and spent a few years warring over that. Then there was the ‘Let Russ Cook’ cult until he was traded, then it was ‘spend every week being horrible about Russ’ instead. We had the ‘non-believers’ slamming anyone who dared to think there was a smidgen of a chance Wilson might be dealt (despite all of the glaring evidence showing it was a possibility). Now it’s Geno Smith’s turn to be in the middle of the latest thing where everyone has to pick a side and you’re either with us or against us.

We’re all Seahawks fans. Can’t we just get back to that?

It’s finally happened. After five long, desperate performances against the San Francisco 49ers, all culminating in very similar losses, the Seahawks have finally beaten them.

I think the most pleasing thing aside from the result was the different look to this game. The familiar ‘Seahawks dig themselves a hole, the 49ers capitalise, there’s a little bit of a rally that goes nowhere and the Niners eventually win comfortably’ was getting old. This had to be different.

Thankfully it was. The Seahawks made it a close contest and made having the last serious possession count. Suddenly the NFC West is wide open again and instead of mild disinterest in the Arizona game next week, it actually looks like one to look forward to and potentially savour.

It does have to be acknowledged that San Francisco were playing without George Kittle, so often a thorn in Seattle’s side. Trent Williams was banged up. Nick Bosa played through clear pain before eventually exiting. All 20 of Seattle’s points came without Bosa on the field.

Even so, the 49ers still had ample talent and were looking for a third straight win. It never felt like a game Kyle Shanahan had control of. For probably only the second time this season, the Seahawks made the game the type of contest they wanted to play. I don’t think they achieved that even in their three early season wins. Against Atlanta and today in Santa Clara, they dictated the flow.

Defensively they deserve a lot of credit. It’s a second reasonable showing in a row. It wasn’t flawless — the Jauan Jennings play on 3rd and 11 where he carried three defenders over the line to gain, with pre-snap confusion on his side of the field, had me (and I’m sure you) shouting at the screen in frustration. The Seahawks also had some iffy moments in the secondary.

However, they contained Christian McCaffrey and limited the run-game damage, created just enough pressure on Brock Purdy to be a factor and overall just played a mostly disciplined, organised four quarters. That’s a big upgrade on what we saw a few weeks ago.

Offensively it was another up and down game. The two touchdown drives were fantastic, especially the final one for obvious reasons. At times the play-design and scheming was eye-catching and clever. Geno Smith’s improv running the ball to win the game was inspired. Then there was the awful interception to start the second half, the second game in a row where they failed to get a yard on two plays on 3rd and 4th down and a continuing inability to unleash a serious running attack.

Olu Oluwatimi wasn’t noticeable, which is probably a good thing. It was good to see Abe Lucas back (and nobody should expect him to shut-out even an injured Bosa on his return). The two guards didn’t wreck the game. Yet Charles Cross seemed to have a bad day.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is really coming along and is starting to look like the real deal. At the same time, are they ever going to find a way to get the most out of Ken Walker’s obscene potential? And why does Zach Charbonnet look so utterly ‘meh’?

The whole offense is one big melting pot of good and bad. I don’t know whether we’re seeing ample potential to believe Ryan Grubb is an O-line away from glory or whether he’s likely to be a one-and-done failed experiment.

I’ll leave that for another day. Ultimately the offense got the job done at the end and for once, it’s the Seahawks who are victorious against the 49ers. It’s really good to say that again.

This is a guest post by Curtis Allen

Just when you thought the first half season of Seahawks football could not be more tumultuous, we hit the bye week.

The Seahawks were neither buyers nor sellers at the trade deadline and fans were treated to two surprise departures and the return of a potentially stabilizing force at Right Tackle.

Tyrel Dodson was waived in a surprising development, a sign the Seahawks definitely envision more playing time (and perhaps a big future role on the defense) for Tyrice Knight. Connor Williams chose to retire, putting the team back where they were in Training Camp: Hoping Olu Oluwatimi would grab the starting job with both hands. Jalen Sundell can be a development project as the primary backup.

The news got much better when it was announced that Abe Lucas would indeed return. The lack of information around the knee injury, the fact the Seahawks took every single day of the PUP activation window and the unclear comments about how much he will play against the Niners was not quite enough salve to calm fans down after one of the stranger weeks in recent team history.

It is actually a bit of a relief that we can just watch a football game.

So let’s do that.

Since facing the Seahawks in Week Six, the Niners have a 2-1 record, losing to Kansas City and beating Dallas and Tampa Bay. All three games have been relatively close. In a way, the Niners are a picture of this NFL season: a lot of close football that signals parity across the league.

More than ever, it feels like games can be reduced to who can either make a key play, or avoid making mistakes. Which leads us to our first point.

Play Clean Football

This might be the tallest order for the Seahawks. The Niners are so talented and so well-coached that they force teams into mistakes. This Seahawks team is prone to making them.

In Week Six, cut the mistakes in half and you have a ballgame:

— Geno Smith overthrowing Tyler Lockett and into Malik Mustapha’s hands for an interception
— Julian Love misjudging a pass to Deebo Samuel and giving a clear path to the end zone
— DK Metcalf unable to get his feet down in the end zone on a critical third and goal throw
— Laviska Shenault fumbled a kickoff and the Niners recovered
— Several poor angles by Rayshawn Jenkins in rush defense
— A soft route by DK Metcalf that led to another interception
— A disastrous punt return attempt by Dee Williams that should have been ruled a muff

There were some good things too. Geno Smith led long scoring drives. The defense held the Niners to field goals while the game was still within reach. Tyler Lockett had some tough, Lockett-esque catches. They just couldn’t overcome so many errors.

The good news is, the Niners have been guilty of mistakes recently. Nearly fatal ones.

In the Kansas City game, Brock Purdy threw three interceptions. In the Dallas game, the defense committed drive-extending penalties on Cowboy touchdown drives. Against the Bucs, they missed three field goals, muffed a punt that led to an easy Tampa score and it took a gorgeous George Kittle touchdown catch and a clutch field goal to seal the win.

The Niners are talented enough and smart enough to overcome mistakes. The Seahawks do not have that wide a margin of error.

A personnel shakeup in the bye week can either mean a more focused, finely-tuned team or a team that will struggle to adjust to the new players on the field.

We will find out.

Win the Battle of the Running Game & Quarterbacks

Oh, is that all?

It has been the key factor in their matchups. Running the ball and stopping the run has been the cause of nearly every loss against the Niners.

There have been a number of problems, from predictable playcalling (they came out in a ‘run-run-pass’ formation in their early drives) to lack of solid run-blocking to little to no creativity.

The Seahawks were dedicated to using Kenneth Walker in Week Six but could not get much by focusing on the left side of the offensive line:

Last week, Tampa mercilessly attacked the right side of the line and had success running there. Bucky Irving was extremely effective there:

They didn’t just run the ball; they had little flairs to keep the defense off-balance — such as a little quick pitch to Irving for a touchdown. Fred Warner has the cutback lane covered but Malik Mustapha takes a bad angle and Irving has an escort to the end zone.

The Seahawks need to break free of their pattern of just plunging it into the line. Open up the playbook and take advantage of the Niners’ aggressiveness.

As for defending the running game? The best thing the defense can do is tackle well. The Niners are the NFL’s toughest offense to bring down with the first man. With Christian McCaffrey back, they are even tougher.

In the Tampa game, every scoring drive the Niners had featured a missed tackle that cost them big yardage. Run fits are important. Defeating blocking is important. But they are nothing if they cannot bring runners to the ground.

Ernest Jones, Devon Witherspoon and Tyrice Knight need to have a great day tackling.

And the Quarterbacks?

Brock Purdy (21.0%) and Geno Smith (22.3%) have almost faced the same pressure rate through nine games. Purdy has the benefit of a top-notch running game, Geno Smith does not.

Purdy has turned from a game manager to a playmaker at the Quarterback position. He has an underrated ability to keep plays alive in and around the pocket, giving receivers time to uncover. Combine that with his accuracy and ability to throw downfield and he has really ascended as a passer.

Just like in the rush defense, this game needs to be a return to form of the early-season pass rushing. The team that was in the top-five for sacks and pressures. Boye Mafe and Derick Hall having effective games would be a huge boost to this team. Purdy can be forced into mistakes and get a bit spooked later in the game from an early pass rush that is effective.

Uncovering some of the tricky looks we talked about for Week Six would go a long, long way towards disrupting this extremely potent offense.

What about Geno Smith? He said this week beating the Niners is ‘very personal’ while acknowledging that he and the team need to snap their losing streak against them to get where they want to go.

He has to bring one of his best performances of the year in this game. Stepping up to the podium after not playing well in a loss and taking accountability and saying he knows he must be better is all well and good. Being better on the field makes those words matter.

What can he do in this game?

Be confident. Make quick decisions. Find short passes that take advantage of the pass rush’s aggression to burn them. And one more thing – run when you have a lane. Brock Purdy’s effectiveness has been greatly enhanced by his willingness to get those 3-4 yards he needs for a first down to keep drives alive. It was a backbreaker when Russell Wilson did it. Smith has the ability and legs to do it. He needs to trust his reads and make the plays he sees.

It might be fair to say this game may be a turning point for Smith. A clean, sharp game that gets the Niners on their heels and makes them adjust and take notice could paint the way to a spot on the 2025 team and possibly a contract extension.

He has talked so much about being accountable. Being more focused. Creating plays when he has the chance.

There is no better game to fulfill those promises than this one.

What Is at Stake?

The Seahawks’ odds for a playoff spot this year are not good. We know they have a tough schedule the rest of the way, especially with the Arizona Cardinals looking much better.

But this team needs to put together a tough, clean game that forces their division mates to know that they are not going to go down without a fight. Even in a loss, they can give those impressions and hold their heads high and start building something for 2025.

The team so far this season has tried so many inventions and groupings. Some a rousing success, others miserable failures. The process must begin to minimize those failures while keeping those successes.

What better time to do it than on the road with a hated division rival that has consistently beaten you?

Back in 2022 I wrote an article discussing why explosive traits matter. It explained that the NFL’s top offensive linemen mostly had similar physical characteristics based around explosive testing (measured by the vertical and broad jumps plus bench press). This allowed us to make a series of projections/predictions for player draft range and future NFL success.

Reflecting on that article two-and-a-half years later is quite interesting, especially after watching Cam Jurgens demolishing Washington’s defensive line during Thursday Night Football. I’d recommend reading it because it highlights why explosive testing has been a strong indicator and projector for the next level.

The piece made the following projections based on the testing results of the 2022 draft class:

Don’t be surprised if players like Ikem Ekwonu and Charles Cross don’t live up to their lofty media expectations and the names above outshine them in terms of NFL careers.

Ekwonu ran a good forty (4.93) and as we’ve discovered — that might be more indicative than we think. He ran a 1.72 10-yard split. However, nothing else about his profile stands out. He’s a 2.90 TEF tester which is good not great. His short shuttle was only a 4.73. For me he’s best served kicking into guard, as Zack Martin did. They have similar testing results. I think Ekwonu can be a terrific guard.

Cross also ran a good forty (4.95) but he’s only a 2.84 TEF tester and thus, not an explosive player. He ran a 4.61 short shuttle and a 1.75 split. The simple fact is that if he succeeds in the NFL we’ll be talking about him as another outlier.

This isn’t unfair. Ekwonu has improved slightly this year, with Carolina’s O-line generally upgrading. However he’s mostly struggled at tackle and has always looked better suited to kick inside.

Cross is clearly an athlete as shown by his 4.95 forty yard dash but three years into his career he still lacks great power and strength to handle blockers off the edge. He gets favourable reviews by Seahawks fans and media but he only has three games this season with a PFF grade of 75 or higher. He’s far from a bad player but he isn’t a great player either. I projected him as a second round grade who deserved to go between 20-40 in the 2022 class and I still think that’s fair. He looked like a player in college who had great feet and mobility but lacked the explosive traits to be an elite tackle.

Zion Johnson has every chance to go in the same range as Alijah Vera-Tucker (#14 overall) and could end up being one of the best players to emerge from this draft

Johnson was taken 17th overall by the Chargers. He hasn’t been a spectacular player but neither has he been a liability. He hasn’t emerged as one of the better players from the class but the draft range projection was accurate and there’s benefit in having a non-liability interior lineman with a cap hit of $1.3m this year and $2.5m next year. I suspect he’ll continue to develop in the Jim Harbaugh system.

Cole Strange, Cam Jurgens and Zach Tom have every chance to excel irrespective of where they are taken

Tom is one of the established steals of the 2022 draft, while Jurgens is starting to shine as Jason Kelce’s replacement in Philadelphia. Strange wasn’t expected to be a first round pick but was taken 29th overall by Bill Belichick — who clearly also felt he had a chance to be really good. He has been absent this season through injury. It’s difficult to read this back today — knowing how much we talked-up Jurgens and Tom pre-draft and seeing how useful they’d be for Seattle these days.

Tyler Linderbaum might not fit every scheme due to his size but he has the physical makeup of a top performing center

This played out as expected.

Trevor Penning — with his explosive testing and fast forty — has every chance to go in the top-10 and could easily go before Charles Cross, potentially as the third lineman off the board (Carolina at #6?) because his testing results match the best OT’s in the league

This didn’t prove to be the case, although his draft range (19th overall) was still higher than some were projecting. This was the weakest projection, though. I think if it wasn’t for Penning’s rashness and faux ‘bully’ playing style he likely would’ve gone earlier and it wasn’t so much his tape or testing that saw him last to #19.

If Bernhard Raimann wasn’t a 25-year-old rookie with short arms he’d likely be a very, very high pick — but he needs a major technical re-tool and the age/length works against him

Raimann was a third round pick and this year has an 82.5 PFF grade and has become an established NFL blocker.

Abraham Lucas deserves a lot more attention given he tests well across the board

When healthy, Lucas completely backed up this sentiment.

It’s important to note that the way I graded these players wasn’t purely down to testing. Extensive tape study played a part and you always have to marry testing and tape, potential/upside and college accomplishment. I was very high on Jurgens, Tom, Lucas and Linderbaum. Regulars will vouch for that. I gave Jurgens, Lucas and Linderbaum ‘would take in round one’ grades, with Tom slotted in round two based purely on non-ideal measurables (his tape and testing marks were excellent). Raimann was also graded in round two, with Johnson firmly in round one.

The piece from 2022 also acknowledged who I thought was being overrated. Kenyon Green was taken 15th overall by the Houston Texans. I had him graded in round four. He has been a disastrous pick. Daniel Faalele was being discussed as a potential top-50 pick. I had him in round four, the range where he was eventually taken. I errored by suggesting Tyler Smith wouldn’t go as early as some think — he was the 24th overall pick and has had a decent start to his career.

The point of all this is to say it isn’t always 4D chess to identify good offensive linemen. The article showed the common traits successful linemen have. When you combine testing with tape study you can generally work out who will have a decent shot at success.

You will always make mistakes, I certainly have, and it’s very easy to GM from a keyboard or in front of a TV. Nobody expects a team to have a flawless record drafting for any position. Yet it’s also hard to understand why the Seahawks have struggled so much both in drafting and developing linemen. In 2020 I graded Robert Hunt in round two — he’s been decent. I also had Damien Lewis graded in round two. I think he’s shown in Carolina that he’s far from a bad player — I believe shifting him from right guard (where he excelled as a rookie) to the left to accommodate Gabe Jackson stunted his development and was a missed opportunity.

In 2021, Landon Dickerson was one of only two offensive linemen I gave a first round grade to (the other being Penei Sewell). I gave second round grades to Creed Humphrey, Quinn Meinerz and Josh Myers. That was the year they traded their first rounder to the Jets for Jamal Adams — a pick that ended up being Christian Darrisaw (second round grade) — and used their second rounder on Dee Eskridge. I gave Eskridge a third round grade and they took him 56th overall. They could’ve had any of Humphrey, Meinerz or Myers instead.

It’s long since been revealed that they felt they needed ‘juice’ on defense, thus the Adams trade. Not to mention Russell Wilson’s public appeal for ‘stars’ to be added at the Pro Bowl. Missing out on any significant pass rusher, while losing Jadeveon Clowney, also likely played a part in the Adams acquisition. Yet it robbed the Seahawks of an opportunity to invest in their O-line — something that felt critical for the style of football they said they wanted to play.

Not only did the picks used on Adams prevent them from drafting good linemen in 2021, it also cost them a chance to add players in free agency. Joe Thuney signed a $16m a year contract with the Chiefs in March that year. In August, the Seahawks were obliged to give Adams $17.5m a year after spending so much to acquire him. Nothing sums the calamity of this period of Seahawks football up better than this.

At the time Patrick Mahomes only had one Super Bowl ring — the same as Russell Wilson, who was considered to be in his prime. The Seahawks could’ve easily used the Adams money to sign Thuney, breaking the market to outbid the Chiefs. They couldn’t because after paying a fortune in picks for Adams, they were handcuffed to him (even as some of us pleaded with them to move on after a year, including during multiple 710 radio hits — which I’m sure went down a storm).

They also could’ve drafted other linemen in 2021 to pair with Thuney — as the Chiefs did with Creed Humphrey — making their line a major strength in what could’ve been a transformational off-season. Instead, they traded for Jackson, moved Lewis and started Brandon Shell at right tackle.

Hindsight’s a wonderful thing of course — but you can’t help but wonder what would’ve happened for Wilson, Pete Carroll and the Seahawks if they’d never traded for Adams, had signed Thuney, drafted Humphrey and rebuilt their line as a core identity to pair with Wilson. A year later in 2022, Wilson was moved to Denver. Even if that was still destined to happen, the rebuilt line would’ve positioned the Seahawks to be strong in future seasons.

The opportunity was there and they didn’t take it.

I suspect the Seahawks are facing an upcoming off-season where they might be relying on the draft again to bolster the O-line. We saw how risky this can be with the Christian Haynes pick — it’s already looking like he could be a whiff. Their challenging cap situation, as emphasised by Curtis Allen’s brilliant breakdown this week (check it out here) highlights the inability they’ll have to splurge on veteran linemen without making huge and potentially unpopular decisions. It’s incredibly frustrating that the Seahawks are tied to so many bad contracts, are carrying so much dead money and face a yearly situation where they have to move things around, despite not having to pay any legit elite players. This is why John Schneider is quite rightly facing more criticism than he has at any point previously in his tenure and why the next off-season could end up being a critical one for the team and the GM.

If it is to be a reliance on the draft, we already have a lot of testing data for Iowa center Logan Jones. Combined with the rapid improvements he’s shown on tape, there’s a very real prospect he will end up being an excellent NFL center and it’s why I currently grade him as a player I would consider in round one. He’ll be locked into a top-50 placing the rest of the way. I’m intrigued to see Jake Majors’ testing results, given his four-star background, plus Tyler Booker’s as a former five-star recruit. There are intriguing options and more will emerge during the Senior Bowl and combine week. With today’s news that Connor Williams is retiring, the Seahawks will again be looking for yet another center next year. They need to draft someone for the long term and/or add a veteran presence like Ryan Kelly (a pending free agent). No more chopping and changing annually.

Frankly, I’m ready to accept a process driven approach where the 2025 off-season is viewed as the first year of the next era, rather than the latest attempt to try and ‘contend’ when I don’t think this team is anywhere near as close as they think (or at least thought a few months ago). If that means taking a year to build the line, sacrificing salary and quality at some positions, to get onto the right path for success — that will be a better plan than plodding along hoping a nudge or a nurdle here or there will lead you to glory. It won’t.

No more kicking the can down the road with contracts, totting up the dead money. No more clinging on to previous mistakes. A fresh start, with the trenches at the heart of everything. That’s where this team needs to be built.

The first step should be to create the resource to invest heavily in the offensive line — both with veterans and picks. And go from there.

This is a guest article by Curtis Allen…

With the trade deadline passing, half of the season is behind us and on a bye week without a game, it is a good time to get a look at where the Seahawks stand on the salary cap for next season.  

The team is currently on a 1-5 run and has questions about a disaster of an Offensive Line and several big decisions to make on other major parts of their roster.  Year one of the Mike Macdonald era most certainly included some inherited roster pieces and salary cap constraints that were not necessarily of his design.  Year two will likely provide a much clearer picture of his ultimate vision.

At the bottom of the piece, I have included informative snapshots of the roster as it stands today according to OverTheCap (OTC).  Included are cap hits, free agent status’ and age when they would enter their next contract.  You can get a ‘big picture’ idea of the 2025 and 2026 needs the team has, the cap hits they will need to manage and what position groups most need to be addressed.

As you are probably aware, the Seahawks are projected to have no cap room next season.  Combining that with some young players that will need second contracts, some decisions that need to be made on expensive veterans and position groups that need a major overhaul and the potential for a volatile offseason is high.

Maybe ‘transformative’ is a more positive word.  This roster and cap will look substantially different when the team kicks off next September.

The goal of a piece like this is not necessarily to forecast exactly what the Seahawks will do.  It is to frame the picture in a way that we can start thinking about what points need discussion throughout the balance of the season and into the offseason.

We need to start with basic costs the Seahawks will likely incur next year that are not currently accounted for but are an unavoidable reality.  Then we can talk about how to account for the roster pieces they need to be more competitive.

If you have read our salary cap pieces before, we tend to follow the ‘depress you first, then tell you why it is not so bad’ method.  I say this as a forewarning because it is very likely the Seahawks’ checkbook is going to burst into flames at some point in 2025.  Use of the company credit card as a supplementary cap tool will be compulsory and whoever monitors their dead cap spending will need a drink.

An Estimate for 2025 Cap Expenses

Here is our top look to get started with:

At the top, we have the current cap number for the Seahawks next year in red.  That includes cap rollover from 2024.

These numbers are fluid.  OTC has projected a robust 6.7% growth in the cap for 2025.  We will not know the actual number until February but they usually have a very good finger on the pulse of revenues, etc.

What follows is OTC’s current estimate of their draft pool, which is also fluid.  They base it on the current draft position, which changes weekly.  As they win games it pushes their picks down and they get less expensive.  As they lose, the opposite happens.  They nicely also include projected compensatory picks and the Seahawks have two coming their way.

At this point, the Seahawks have their top 51 cap spots covered.  There is no need to add any base salary slots to get to Effective Cap Space (which is $15,351,196 over the cap).

Next you have the Proven Performance Escalators.  These are salary bumps baked into the Collective Bargaining Agreement for good rookie performance that increase a player’s salary on the fourth year of his rookie contract.  Riq Woolen earns the biggest bump as an original ballot Pro Bowler.  Bryant and Lucas’ bumps come by virtue of their playing time.

Geno Smith is projected to earn a non-guaranteed $2 million for achieving the ‘yards’ escalator in his contract.

Lastly, we have funds for the Practice Squad and some slush money to replace players that go on Injured Reserve.  Nobody likes to pay or account for these expenses but they are always a reality.  They’re the two end-pieces in a loaf of bread.  They serve a purpose but usually get discarded easily.

The Seahawks need to come up with approximately $35 million in cap dollars just to pay the bills and get their heads above water, let alone dramatically improve their team in 2025.

We are not done digging.  The hole gets deeper when you consider the Seahawks have players to extend that I think the majority can agree are priorities.

Buckle up, because we are about to spend about $360 million of Jody Allen’s money.

A Look at Five Extensions the Seahawks Should Consider

This is a lot to swallow.

Starting at the top we have Ernest Jones.  The Seahawks’ handling of Jones appears to be something like acquiring Leonard Williams in his free agency year and then extending him early in the new league year.  Considering Jones’ pass-rush ability and the value placed on him by the Seahawks given the compensation they gave up, a contract similar to what Patrick Queen got from Pittsburgh and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah got from Cleveland is what he will require.  A three-year contract takes him to his late 20’s and firmly establishes him in the middle of Mike Macdonald’s defense.

Riq Woolen has had a standout career so far.  He has had some challenges to be su but his body of work is outstanding and corners (and just plain athletes) like him are very hard to find.  He nets an extension in the range of Patrick Surtain and Jaire Alexander.

Kenneth Walker is an offensive fixture for this team.  He is an explosive playmaker who has not reached his ceiling.  An extension in the range of Josh Jacobs and what Chuba Hubbard just received to keep Walker as a heart-and-soul piece of the offense is appropriate.

Boye Mafe has had a fantastic rise from talented prospect to streaky pass rusher to more well-rounded Outside Linebacker.  He may never reach that high plateau of game-breaker like Bosa or Garrett but he is firmly planted in the level just below.  A contract like what Rashan Gary or Jonathan Greenard received is needed to keep him in Seattle.

D.K. Metcalf is a player capable of re-arranging the entire field.  He can excel as an intermediate target with explosive capability, or as a deep target that can change a game at a moment’s notice.  From a salary cap standpoint, he is a homegrown player the Seahawks have been able to maximize their value with.

From vastly outperforming his rookie contract to signing an extension that had an affordable cap hit in the first year (and is set up to allow for restructuring for cap purposes) to now in 2025 having a cap number that allows a reduction in the cap hit when being extended.  OTC says the Seahawks can gain up to $13.8 million with an extension.

We propose a 3-year contract near what CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson received that takes Metcalf through his age 31 season.  That essentially covers his prime years and allows the Seahawks to save $12 million on the cap in 2025 (I rounded down slightly).

Figuring some standard contract structuring, the Seahawks add a net $8.5 million in cap for these five extensions, putting them over the cap by $44 million.

Can they find that kind of cap space?  And even more to make sorely needed improvements on the Offensive Line?

They can.

That does not mean they are easy choices.

The Five Likeliest Options to Pick Up Cap Space

We have to start with the unkindest cut of all.  Tyler Lockett has been a Seattle Seahawk through and through.  But the Seahawks committing more money to D.K. Metcalf and more targets to Jaxon Smith-Njigba means that as a practical matter, they cannot handle a $30 million cap hit for a third wide receiver.  If he wanted to keep playing in Seattle, could they adjust his contract to make it more workable?  I would be 100% behind that.  It does appear just as likely, though, that last year’s contract reworking was done with an eye toward Lockett retiring after 2024.

Dre’Mont Jones has been a tough signing for the Seahawks.  He played a good chunk of 2023 out of position and needed another high-profile acquisition in Leonard Williams to restore him to his original position and unlock more productive play.  This year he has three sacks, five tackles for loss and thirteen pressures in nine games.  More than once in the Rams game, he was the beneficiary of the Seahawks setting him up like they did for Jamal Adams:  Putting him on the edge and blitzing linebackers into the middle gaps to give him a free run at the quarterback.  That is not what he was acquired for.  Players with that kind of investment need to make their own plays.

Noah Fant might be the biggest misfit toy on the roster.  After 2022, his career numbers and trajectory were comparable to T.J. Hockenson, who continued blossoming and signed a $66 million extension in 2023.  What did Fant do in Seattle that year?  He had his career-worst season.  Yet the Seahawks wanted him back and he wanted to come back on a short contract.

After nine weeks of the season, he is the #23 most-targeted tight end in the NFL.  Want some lemon juice on that papercut?  Both Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson have more targets with their new teams than Fant does in Seattle.  His last touchdown catch was in garbage time against the Chiefs nearly two years ago.  Fant is currently #14 in First Downs as a tight end.

So, not a superstar blocker in the run game, not a prolific target, in those targets he has zero touchdown catches and is not a first down machine.  Unless something phenomenal happens in the next eight games, he should not be on the roster at $13.5 million next year.

Uchenna Nwosu is the polar opposite of Fant.  He is a perfect fit on this roster and easily one of their best acquisitions in recent years.  His challenge is obvious – health.  He played six games last year and was a fantastic piece on defense.  But his injury badly hurt the defense.  So far this season, he has only played in one game and they need him just as badly.

However, another harsh reality of salary cap life is he cannot play on a $21 million cap number in 2025.  If he is healthy and open to a reworking of his contract – perhaps trading some of his non-guaranteed salary for incentives – the Seahawks should make every effort to keep him.

Rayshawn Jenkins has not been a great acquisition for the Seahawks.  His one claim to fame is the 102-yard fumble return against the Giants.  Other than that, he has had real difficulty finding his run fits as a strong safety and landed on injured reserve.  The Seahawks have affordable depth behind him and in a cap crunch could find a way to move on from him without too much difficulty.

Pulling all these levers gets them in the black and allows them approximately $6.6 million to spend as they wish.  Is that enough cap space to fill some of the key roster spots that have opened up?  Let alone invest in completely rebuilding the Offensive Line with quality talent?

It is not.  If every move in this projection were made, they would need another serious pass-catching threat with Lockett and Fant gone.  They would need more depth along the defensive line if Nwosu and Jones were gone.

They would be running out Tyrice Knight at linebacker (which appears to be a certainty with the release of Tyrel Dodson).  They also have Jarran Reed’s spot to consider, as he is an unrestricted free agent.

They could pick up some of the slack from players like Byron Murphy, A.J. Barner and Jake Bobo progressing.  Some depth could be added in the draft.  But walking out of the draft with 3-4 immediate contributors is more the exception rather than the rule.

More cap room is needed.  And more is available.  In fact, I am ready in November to call my shot for this coming offseason on a move that I do think the Seahawks will make in some form.

Restructuring Leonard Williams’ Contract

There are many reasons why this is a workable solution for the Seahawks to gain more cap space.

Firstly – as we have seen – the Seahawks badly need cap space in 2025.  Williams has a $20 million salary the Seahawks can work with to convert to bonus money to create room.  OTC currently projects that they have $168 million of cap room in 2026 and $285 million in 2027.  Even with the young players they will need to give second contracts, they have room on the credit card to borrow some future cap space.

Secondly, Williams is the kind of player you want on your team long-term.  His current contract covers his age 31 and 32 years.  His skillset will age well, he is versatile and he is adopting a leadership role on the team.

And thirdly, the Seahawks have established a bit of a pattern with restructuring.  In 2023, they employed it with Jamal Adams, Quandre Diggs and Tyler Lockett.  This year, with Dre’Mont Jones and D.K. Metcalf.

Admittedly, that is not a great success rate — but  there is a compelling case to be made they can make it work with Williams.

OTC says Seattle can gain $9.37 million with a Williams restructure.  Let’s follow Joey Laine’s recent restructures and add two void years.  That brings the cap gain to just over $14 million for a nearly $21 million number to add talent.

Let’s be right:  that number is good.  But not a windfall.  The Seahawks will need to be very, very careful in their allocation of resources if they want to address a critical issue such as rebuilding the offensive line.

Turning A Weakness into a Strength

The Seahawks need to find linemen they can build around and get some continuity.  Patching together a line with young players who are not ready, acquiring spare parts and praying for no injuries has not worked.

I believe the Seahawks will at the very minimum need to pursue a “1+1+1” strategy in the 2025 offseason to rectify their challenges along the Offensive Line:

-Sign one premium free agent

-Draft one starting-caliber lineman

-Develop one of their current players into a starter

At the moment, with what we have seen this year, all three of those seem unreachably high goals.  But the they must try.

Why not just buy three linemen?  That definitely is an option.  But a big sweeping investment is just not on the cards with the cap space they have.

For instance, the top guards net $20 million per year contracts.  A first-year cap hit for one of those players will cost between $10-12 million.  Higher yet due to the lack of blue-chip interior players likely to be available in March.  Trey Smith of Kansas City is the head and shoulders best guard available.  The next closest is Zach Martin, who may retire instead of pursuing free agency.  Aaron Banks from the rival Niners might be an option.

They have more choices at the center position.  Two fan favorites to anchor the line and bring some toughness and leadership would be Ryan Kelly of the Colts and Bradley Bozeman of the Chargers.  If either of those players are available, the Seahawks should be interested.  A first-year cap hit of say a 3-year free agent contract would be about $7-9 million.

There are many second-level options available like Drew Dalman (who will be coming off IR) of the Falcons, Josh Meyers of the Packers, Coleman Shelton of the Bears and the Seahawks’ own Connor Williams.

Seahawks fans would much prefer a long-term signing at center rather than the nibbling at veteran stopgaps like they have done in recent years.  But will the Seahawks pursue that avenue?  The play of the line so far this year begs a re-evaluation of their process.

The best outcome for all involved appears to be taking an aggressive approach.  Entering the 2025 draft with these spots addressed might be ideal:

LT-Charles Cross

LG-open with Lumea and Haynes in the mix

C-Top Free Agent signing

RG-Top Free Agent signing

RT-(please oh please) a healthy Abe Lucas coming off a very solid 7-8 games in 2024

They can target a top left guard or draft any other line position to develop depth.

That’s the dream, isn’t it?

It likely would take all of their available cap space to make that happen.

They still will need more money to fill in some of the gaps and a little more cushion for in-season trades or have some money to roll into 2026.

Which brings us to the wildcard of the entire offseason.

Looking at the Future of the Quarterback Position

Geno Smith will be entering his age 35 season next year as his last contracted year with the Seahawks.  His cap hit is currently $38.5 million but as we discussed at the top, let’s call it $40.5 million as the chances he hits his yardage escalator are very good.

The options:

-Cut or trade him before his Roster Bonus hits March 20 and pick up $27 million of cap room

-Extend him.  OTC says the Seahawks can pick up just under $19 million with an extension

We took a walk through some of the thought processes at quarterback in April and most of those points could also be applied to the 2025 offseason.

Will Smith quarterback the Seahawks in 2025?  I doubt the key decision-makers in the Seahawks’ front office have made up their minds yet.  There are still eight games left in this season to size up the roster.

There’s only one thing I am absolutely certain of.  He will not play on his present 2025 cap number.  The Seahawks will need to make a decision instead of just playing the season out at his present contract rate.

The same could be said for Sam Howell.  We do not know if the Seahawks like what they see behind the scenes.  He gradually improved in training camp and had some good plays in preseason.

If they do rate Howell, I could see the Seahawks extending him as one of their early moves of the offseason.  Something that elevates him to the going rate for backup quarterbacks and has some incentive built in should he hit some numbers.

A 2-year, $11.5 million contract would give the Seahawks some security in a volatile offseason.  They are protected if they want to move away from Smith, or if extension negotiations come to a stalemate.  Also, they could go into the draft and not be forced into an expensive posture if there is a quarterback they like.

As for Smith, I personally could see the Seahawks taking either route next year.  They’ve enjoyed getting great value for their cap dollars with him but a big number like $40 million may just be too expensive.

A key decision point is Smith’s age.  He will be 36 in 2026.  Would the Seahawks (or any other team) want to give a quarterback a big new contract for his age 36-38 years?  I know fans like to point to the six years he spent on the bench as evidence his body is fresher than the standard quarterback.  But is that how NFL teams think?

He did not have much of a market after 2022 — what we now can confirm is his career-best season statistically.  Would that change after two lesser seasons and two more years on the calendar?

At his age, guaranteed money is more important in a new contract than Average Annual Value.

I could see the Seahawks choosing to extend Smith on something like a two-year $65-70 million contract with $35-40 million guaranteed and some incentives.  The Seahawks can bank on him as the starter in 2025 and 2026, have two drafts to pick up a young quarterback and then have a look at things in the 2027 offseason – his age 37 year – and make a decision.

I have no doubt Seattle will pick up some salary cap money next spring from the quarterback spot.  How it is done is up to them. It will be fascinating to witness.

Offense

Defense

Special Teams

Finally, Rob appeared on Dan Viens show today to talk about the Seahawks and the NFL draft, check it out here:

For quite some time now, the Seahawks have given the impression they wish to be a tough, physical team. That was often the message under Pete Carroll, who regularly preached the importance of a good running game. We’ve heard the same thing from Mike Macdonald since he took over.

Yet here we are, nine games into the season, and the Seahawks are not close to becoming the team they wish to be — either stylistically or in execution. They are too often beaten in the trenches, they are throwing the ball more than any other team in the NFL and rather than shape into form, they’re on a 1-5 run that has included some incredibly disappointing defeats.

Let’s compare this to two other teams.

When Jim Harbaugh took over the Chargers, he made it absolutely clear what the identity of the team would be. They were going to be a trenches-based, physical football team. They would run the football. He appointed Greg Roman, his long time assistant, as offensive coordinator. They drafted a right tackle in the top-10, despite having the chance to invest in someone like Malik Nabers (and receiver was a need for them).

Today they ran the ball 39 times against the Titans, throwing only 18 times. That’s despite having Justin Herbert at quarterback. They dispatched the Tennessee Titans 27-17 — a team with the same number of wins as the shambolic New York Giants, who beat the Seahawks recently.

The Chargers are now 6-3 and the Harbaugh brand of football is well established already. You can see clear progress. They’re on a 4-1 run with the only defeat being a two-point loss to the Cardinals when they were featuring several players carrying injuries. They are handling their business and you can see continued growth. The playoffs seem inevitable as does the chance to be competitive for the next few years.

Meanwhile the Pittsburgh Steelers have also invested in their offensive line. They’ve put together a good defense. They run the ball more than every team in the league apart from Philadelphia. They put the emphasis on their quarterback to play point guard, distribute the ball and make explosive plays.

Today they impressively beat the upstart Washington Commanders to move to 7-2. They ran the ball 43 times, compared to 29 pass attempts. This was despite trailing for long stretches of the game. The Steelers are completely comfortable with who they are and what they want to be.

These two teams are, by all accounts, the kind of teams the Seahawks presumably aspire to be. Not 100% identikit replicas. But something similar. So why have they struggled so much to get anywhere close?

Perhaps I’ve just got this wrong? After all, Macdonald is from the Ravens tree and they’re playing a better version of Seattle football. They rely on Lamar Jackson, the defense isn’t great, the O-line isn’t great and they’re streaky. But they have the reigning NFL MVP and he might win the award again this year. They run the ball the fourth most in the league — mainly because of Jackson but also because they find ways to feature Derrick Henry.

I think until the Seahawks commit to who they say they want to be, they’re going to be a little bit lost. At the moment I think they feel inclined to ‘do what it takes to try and win’ and that nearly always means putting the ball in Geno Smith’s hands and hoping he delivers, often against the odds. Yet they’re 1-5 in their last six. The idea of contending is fanciful at this stage. They need to work out who or what they are, commit to it, and set the platform for 2025 and beyond.

If you want to play like the Chargers and Steelers, do it. Once you’ve established that, structure your off-season resources to make your team as effective as they can be. Until you have total clarity on your chosen identity and actually put it into action — you’ll always be stuck playing the way the Seahawks currently are.