I’m publishing an updated Horizontal Board today with accompanying notes. Things will be impacted in the next few weeks by the Senior Bowl. I’ve also created a list of players at the end of the piece who are either not turning pro or have transferred to stay in college.
Horizontal board
This is how I am currently grading individual players. Those marked in red either have current injuries or reported injury concerns/injury history. Those marked in purple have reported character related issues that would require investigation by a team.
Class breakdown by numbers
Legit first round prospects — 5
Fringe R1 (prospects I’d be prepared to take in round one) — 9
Second round grades — 14
Players with grades in the first three rounds — 79
Position-by-position breakdowns
Quarterbacks
I think it’d be a mistake for Oregon’s Dante Moore to declare. The game against Indiana showed he needs more playing experience. Plus, is that really the way you want to end your college career? He will undoubtedly be well compensated for playing another season of college football. I hope the people advising him are focusing on what gives him the best chance to have a long and successful pro career and not what’s best to ‘game’ the draft and take advantage of a weak class.
Should Moore remain at Oregon (edit — he has chosen to stay in school), Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza is going to be the #1 overall pick. He deserves a lot of respect for his 2025 season. However, I don’t personally believe he deserves a first round grade, let alone going first overall.
Physically he is good not great — both in terms of arm talent and improv. He doesn’t operate under center and benefits a lot from a scheme that is about as well coached as you’ll ever see in college football. The abundance of back-shoulder throws won’t be readily there at the next level and he will need to challenge more into tight windows over the middle and deliver downfield. His footwork also needs cleaning up after his initial read isn’t open.
Before the Oregon game he only ranked 13th for EPA in college football — which speaks to the Indiana environment meshing with his talent and consistency. I think the challenge for the Raiders, if they select him, will be to create a dynamic and brilliant offensive scheme. Mendoza is not a physical marvel waiting to take the league by storm (although his accuracy, poise and the way he’s elevated Indiana this year all should be noted).
Vegas need an inspired offensive-minded Head Coach to lead from the front and set out a clearly defined system. If they do this, Mendoza can thrive within structure and they’ll make the most out of the positive aspects he delivers — including his obvious dedication to his craft. He is not a rare franchise saviour who can revolutionise a franchise with individual brilliance though.
If Trinidad Chambliss (Ole Miss) fails in his court case to gain another year of eligibility, I think he could be a fascinating prospect. He made plays out of structure for Ole Miss that were very interesting.
There isn’t a quarterback in this class I would draft in round one. If I were a team needing to select a quarterback, I would be pitching to the owner why we had to wait and would offer veteran solutions for the short term. Some owners won’t want to hear that, of course.
I think there’s a chance Ty Simpson (Alabama) will find a home in the top-40 — potentially to a team like Minnesota who should be dipping back into the market. That feels like a good scheme fit. I would also be interested in Garrett Nussmeier (LSU) and Taylen Green (Arkansas) if they stick on the board. They are two players with obvious plus talent who for different reasons did not have the finish to 2025 they would’ve hoped for. There could be value in taking a shot on both with a low-risk pick later on.
Running backs
The position is led by Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love — a potential top-five pick with the potential to be the next dynamic runner in the NFL to go along with the James Cook, Jahmyr Gibbs, De’Von Achane type backs.
The more I’ve watched of the class though I just don’t think there’s a ton of value to be had early on. I really enjoyed watching Emmett Johnson (Nebraska) and Mike Washington Jr (Arkansas) but I think you have to cap their value at round three and believe they could be available later than that.
Johnson doesn’t have a majorly explosive looking lower half. His speed is good but he doesn’t have a second gear when he breaks free. He’s not a short-yardage power back. He’s agile and quick and makes plays in the passing game but he’s a 7.5/10 talent in college and probably a 5.5/10 at the next level.
Washington Jr collected yards after contact during his best spell of 2025 but his impact was limited by how often Arkansas had to play from behind. He dodges and weaves through tackles but doesn’t possess game-changing long-speed. He reminds me of Knile Davis, a third round pick from the same school in 2013.
Nicholas Singleton (Penn State) has bags of physical potential but his final year in college was a massive disappointment. You might be able to find a diamond here if you believe he has a lot more to offer. I think he does.
If you’re in the market for a really good running back next year, there’s one solution if you’re not in position to get Love early in round one. Call the Dolphins about Achane. I don’t think people realise just how good he is. A lot of people scoffed at a second round price tag at the trade deadline. With hindsight — I think a good team should’ve pulled the trigger:
Wide receivers
I think USC’s Makai Lemon will be the first receiver drafted and he should probably send Jaxon Smith-Njigba a bottle of Châteauneuf-du-Pape when it happens. Lemon has a very similar frame and playing style. With JSN’s excellent year fresh in the minds of GM’s, don’t expect Lemon to last into the 20’s.
He’s savvy with his routes and can get open in both the short-game and downfield. He adjusts to the ball in the air superbly and his ball-tracking is top tier. He shows strong and consistent hands paired with excellent focus and technique. He’s not electric or sudden but he’s shifty and finds ways to get open. I really like him.
Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State) won’t be too far behind, provided he passes all medical checks. His injury history will be a concern (14 missed games out of 38 for ASU). However, he’s such a natural receiver that there’s every chance he will also find a home within the top-20.
Tyson wins a lot of contested catches and can jump up to go and get the ball. He did a bit of everything in college — slot, outside, screens. He shows good hands, he turned awkward and off-target throws into completions and he has a subtle separation talent to make up for a lack of blazing quickness. His ball-tracking is good and it’s easy to imagine him making plays in the league.
Carnell Tate (Ohio State) saw his season tail off at the end but he too should go reasonably quickly. He has great body control, he catches the ball away from his body, he can hang in the air to make catches and his ball-tracking is also excellent. He lines up almost exclusively outside and his speed is a question mark.
Lemon, Tyson and Tate all have a very reasonable chance to become solid NFL starters.
After that there’s some depth but I sense we might end up seeing players pushed way above their grading. I’m struggling with the first round buzz Washington’s Denzel Boston is getting. To me he feels like a useful bigger target on slants and in the red zone but someone who will struggle to separate at the next level and doesn’t have the vertical leaping ability to win-out.
Zachariah Branch (Georgia) is a screen/pass into the flat specialist used basically as a ‘kick-returner’ on offense, getting the ball into his hands and trying to get him to run through traffic. He has an explosive lower half and he can sprint away from defenders in space but he wasn’t used as a conventional receiver and his tendency to body catch highlights this. Again, it’s hard to see some of the round one buzz here.
KC Concepcion (Texas A&M) could go in round one due to his ability to separate and make big plays — but that’s not certain. I’m hoping Evan Stewart returns to Oregon after missing the 2025 season with a serious injury.
Tight end
After a strong top of the draft a year ago, this is the opposite. Oregon’s Kenyon Sadiq is regularly assumed to be a very high pick but what is this based on? Testing. He’s expected to be one of the big winners at the combine. His performance on the field for Oregon was nothing to write home about. Did you feel his presence against Texas Tech or Indiana? He only had four games this year with +50 yards.
He’s talking about potentially going back to school. I think he should. A lot more development is needed here and I’d have a hard time taking him early believing his production is suddenly going to explode at the next level. I’d describe his blocking as ‘OK’. He’s a major upside project.
Eli Stowers (Vanderbilt) feels like someone who is more likely to come in and contribute quickly but he will need to test well to show off his upside to warrant going in round two. I’m glad the Seahawks took the opportunity to draft Elijah Arroyo a year ago and believe in time he will prove to be an inspired pick. There are no truly exciting solutions as part of this draft class.
Offensive line
Spencer Fano (Utah) and Francis Mauigoa (Miami) should both go very early. They are highly aggressive, tone-setting, consistent arse kickers. Both might have to kick inside to guard, however.
The more I watched of Caleb Lomu (Utah) I think he might go quite early too. There’s such a dearth of well sized, athletic left tackles in this draft and Lomu could be elevated based on upside. He could go in the top-20.
I’ve really battled with Kadyn Proctor (Alabama) and I studied a bunch of his tape again recently. I think I like him more than I did prior to that work. I still have real reservations about his size/weight and how that’d need to be controlled. However — he ticks a few boxes. His zone-blocking is surprisingly effective. He does a great job moving into space and finding blocks at the second level. He can smother and dominate when blocking square-on. He bullies opponents 1v1 in a wrestling match. He’s shown evidence of passing off defenders to handle stunts. He’s a finisher and a people mover. He also has rare speed/mobility for his frame — although that works best moving forwards and not protecting the edge at tackle.
There is a level of uniqueness to Proctor you don’t see with many players and in a draft like this, I’d probably roll the dice. If you have the luxury of drafting him to kick inside to guard, even better. I think he could be really good there. I’m not sure I’d trust him defending the edge against speed at the next level.
I think Brian Parker (Duke) might go earlier than people realise. He’s an excellent zone blocker and moves people off the ball. He’s extremely physical. He shows good technique with the ability to get his hands inside to control blocks. He’s very mobile and capable of progressing to the second level. His success rate landing on second-level blocks is impressive and he uses forceful hands to jolt defenders off balance with violence.
There are examples on tape of him springing big run plays due to his key blocking
Duke seemed to funnel their run game to his side. I think he has a bright future and is worthy of top-45 talk.
Gennings Dunker (Iowa) and Emmanuel Pregnon (Oregon) also provide quality zone-blocking tape and finishing ability. Dunker, like Parker, will project to move inside from tackle. I wonder if we could see a major run on offensive linemen simply because there are players here with some starting ability and you can’t say that in other areas of this class.
Later round options that have caught my eye include Beau Stephens (Iowa) and Pat Coogan (Indiana). Stephens is another really good zone-blocker. He sinks his hips well to anchor, is adept at getting on the move and reaching up to the second level. He has the brawling mentality you expect from an Iowa lineman. There are examples on tape of him turning defenders and finishing his blocks to the turf. He has a willingness to combo block but some technical tweaks are needed to execute at a higher level. I’d prefer to see a better initial punch into the chest of opponents. Coogan excelled against Oregon and while his upside is limited — he’s going to give everything on every down. There’s evidence of good zone-blocking on tape.
I studied newly declared Monroe Freeling (Georgia) today before writing this piece. He’s a pure pass-pro tackle and not a great run blocker. His height (6-7) means he struggles with leverage and he has a high centre of gravity. He gets beat through the chest because he can’t sink and anchor well enough. He can also get out over his toes when he gets on the move — lunging at blocks. There’s enough athleticism to seal off the edge with his footwork and his foot-speed on the kick-step is a positive. He showed he can contain Texas’ Colin Simmons with his kick-step and peppering hands. Yet his technique needs major work — he too often lunges at EDGE defenders with his arms over-extended meaning he’ll be so easy to counter off. He also loses all balance and it hinders his base.
He’s a project with upside but there’s a lot of work needed and he’s not helping you set a tone up front. I think he could go in round two because teams are always looking for athletic tackles.
EDGE
I’m really struggling to understand the first round buzz with some of these players. David Bailey (Texas Tech) has taken the form of ‘first round lock’ in the media but I just found his tape underwhelming. Cashius Howell (Texas A&M) is going to get blasted against the run at the next level. Romello Height (Texas Tech) is a rotational rusher and R Mason Thomas (Oklahoma) plays with a lot of intensity and motor but as with many defensive ends/EDGE rushers in this class, he just doesn’t have the measurables.
I have Joshua Josephs (Tennessee) currently graded as my top EDGE after reviewing tape. He looks the part with great arm length and a long, lean frame. He shows evidence of speed-to-power. He works nicely to disengage and his arm/over can be effective to win 1v1. He seems to prefer to sprint into contact rather than the preferred bend/straighten which isn’t ideal but Josephs offers a physical playing style and the motor never stops. His run discipline is evident on tape. I think he’s someone who could realistically start and play some early downs without necessarily being a star player.
This isn’t a class where I’d be looking for solutions if I wanted to add an impact rusher. I think you all know by now what I would do if that was a desired off-season aim.
Defensive end
Keldric Faulk (Auburn) is one of several players with enticing physical tools who didn’t have a great 2025 season — yet within this class he could/should be a top-15 pick because those teams at the top will need to take someone. After that, I think Ohio State’s Kenyatta Jackson (if he turns pro) has some intriguing upside, perhaps enough to tempt a team to take him in the top-40.
I’ve been pretty consistent since September in saying I think Rueben Bain Jr (Miami) has been overrated by the media and fans on Twitter. Short-armed players with his frame and playing style don’t go early in round one.
He has 30 inch arms at 270lbs with a stocky 6-3 frame — that’s difficult to place in a NFL context. Is he an inside/out rusher? Not many players with his body type succeed. His game is based on power and while he does show occasional bend for his size he just doesn’t seem all that twitchy. He had a four game stretch where he missed 21.3% of his tackles in 2025 and he just reminds me of those AJ Epenesa, Boogie Basham, Myles Murphy types who go earlier than they should. He has this tendency at Miami to be impactful one week and then have a couple of games where you barely notice he’s playing. The limitations in this class could mean he still finds a home in round one but it’s not the banker many would have you believe.
I’m also not sure why his older team-mate, Akheem Mesidor, who has an injury history, is being projected in round one. I thought his tape was pretty average personally.
There’s not a lot of excitement to be had here. This isn’t a position in the draft I’d be chasing.
Defensive tackle
Ohio State’s Kayden McDonald is one of the best six players in the draft. His run-defense and ability to control double-teams, anchor down, disengage and just generally be a load in the middle of the defense are not typical. On top of that, he has great size (325lbs) and carries his weight well. He’s also far more athletic than people give him credit for — there’s untapped pass-rush ability here. I think he’s potentially another Derrick Brown.
Peter Woods (Clemson) had a very disappointing season but is expected to run a 4.8 at +300lbs so teams may feel obliged to take him early, knowing his 2024 tape was so much better than what we saw in 2025. Caleb Banks (Florida) had injury problems all year but there simply aren’t many humans with his incredible size, length and ability to disrupt. If he passes medical checks he will go early.
Domonique Orange (Iowa State) is a big nose tackle type with plus athleticism and disruptive qualities. I think he’d be a very solid day two pick. Darrell Jackson Jr (Florida State) is another player who just jumps off the screen thanks to his size, motor, aggression and length. He plays with genuine violence to throw off blocks with disdain. His one-arm bull rush is interesting and effective. At the very least he can provide some early-down run defense value. In my notes I wrote ‘has an AFC North vibe to him’.
I’m not buying the sudden ‘Lee Hunter (Texas Tech) in round one’ talk either. His frame is unappealing and apologies for the crude comparison — he’s built like an orange. I’m not convinced he’ll test well. He does have surprising shiftiness and an ability to dodge blocks to penetrate. He can also sift down the line to get a feel for the blocks then slip through gaps. His arm/over is competent but he’s not a bully vs the run and doesn’t take the game to the opponent with violent hands.
Linebacker
Ohio State’s Arvell Reese is going to be a very high pick as a hybrid EDGE/LB who could develop into another Abdul Carter type player. He plays with a thunderous ferocity, getting under the pads of bigger linemen and somehow stacking/disengaging. He delivers a jolting punch which has to be seen to be believed at his size. He displaces linemen to throw them off balance which again, at his size, is remarkable.
He’s a tremendous run defender because of his ability to disengage and/or keep his frame clean. There’s evidence on tape of throwing off offensive tackles to explode into the backfield. As a linebacker he plays with fantastic range and he looks like a sudden athlete. He’s very willing to fill gaps and put a hat on a hat. He’s light on his feet and will read/react to make plays. His pursuit speed is excellent. That said, he had quiet games in the BIG-10 Championship and Ohio State’s playoff exit to Miami.
CJ Allen (Georgia) has grown on me. He’s a classic downhill linebacker who can explode to attack the LOS and expose gap opportunities with his quickness. His closing speed when running forward is excellent. He reads the eyes of the QB and remains patient when playing read/react. He has good stalking speed when he runs to the sideline.
He likes to keep everything in front of him and doesn’t look that comfortable going backwards. He’s not the best at reacting to play-action and he could be exposed when forced into coverage situations. His tackles pack a punch and he’ll help set a stone. His lateral movements (sidesteps) are solid but not the most sudden or free. He doesn’t miss many tackles. There’s a little bit of stiffness/tightness with his movements.
I think he has the makings of a solid starter.
I’m not sure why Sonny Styles (Ohio State) is suddenly being projected as a top-20 lock everywhere. Is it because of testing? The former safety is a long, lean linebacker but he doesn’t have a typical build for the position. You can see his former DB background in the way he drops with ease. Yet he lacks take-on power when attacking the LOS, he doesn’t always fly to the ball carrier and he can overcommit and get washed out. There’s some over-eagerness at times that means he runs into blocks and it costs him. You can see tight ends having success in the blocking game against him too.
I like linebackers with speed, range and mobility but to me Styles feels like a project who warrants far more restraint in terms of taking a shot than the top-20. For me he’s a day-two player.
One player I loved watching is Kyle Louis (Pittsburgh). He’s undersized and I’m not sure he’s going to test well enough to compensate for that — however, he gives absolutely everything in every game and he’s said to be an absolute work-horse off the field in terms of preparation and dedication. Keep an eye on him during the Senior Bowl.
Cornerback
Clemson’s Avieon Terrell covers well running across the field and he’s sticky downfield with strong recover ability. For me he has the most potential to be a plus starter — although his lack of size looks an issue at times. I did like the way he played the run and his brother has obviously had success in the league. There’s a natural classiness to his play which speaks to those bloodlines. He looks like a NFL player on tape.
Jermod McCoy (Tennessee) has a lot of snaps where he’s face-guarding but he’s well built and can stick in coverage downfield. He’s a ball of clay to develop into a rounded CB1. There are injury checks to take place after he missed 2025 but he sticks in the hip-pocket in man and can trace steps downfield with ease. He looks the part but against the top opponents (Jeremiah Smith & Ryan Williams) he did give up some plays.
Mansoor Delane (LSU) is intelligent, makes plays on the ball and shows a degree of natural talent and flair for the position. The concern is his long-speed and testing — and whether limitations here could be an issue at the next level.
Safety
Ohio state’s Caleb Downs is one of the best players in the draft, possibly the best. Testing expectations are not sky-high and with his low positional value he might last a bit longer on draft day than he should (see: Kyle Hamilton). He is probably the safest bet in the class to hit on a good starter.
Oregon’s Dillon Thieneman is being slept on — he is expected to test brilliantly and he has good size too. His range as a deep-cover safety is impressive and he can be a chess piece at the next level. Keep an eye on Arizona’s Genesis Smith too.
Overall assessment
There’s still time for things to change but right now I think it’s pretty clear what this class is (or isn’t). There’s a distinct lack of obvious blue-chippers at the top of round one. You are unlikely to find players from #15 onwards with first round grades, at least in my view. You will badly struggle to get value in round two.
I think we’ll see teams resort to attacking the trenches positions, receiver and cornerback early — feeling like these are the areas you might as well plunder if the grading value isn’t up to par.
I continue to think we’ll see a rich appetite for teams picking later in each round to attack the veteran trade market. The big question will be — with a weak draft class in 2026 — how reasonable are selling teams going to be to make deals? And are you going to have to dig into your 2027 resources to sweeten certain deals?
Players not turning pro
Dante Moore (QB, Oregon)
LaNorris Sellers (QB, South Carolina)
A’Mauri Washington (DT, Oregon)
Matayo Uiagalelei (DE, Oregon)
Kelley Jones (CB, Mississippi State)
Anthony Smith (DE, Minnesota)
Keon Sabb (S, Alabama)
Ryan Baer (T, Pittsburgh)
Bray Hubbard (S, Alabama)
Quincy Rhodes (DE, Arkansas)
Mark Fletcher Jr (RB, Miami)
Bear Alexander (DT, Oregon)
Jayden Maiava (QB, USC)
Darian Mensah (QB, Duke)
Nyck Harbor (WR, South Carolina)
Whit Weeks (LB, LSU)
Trevor Goosby (T, Texas)
Lucas Carneiro (K, Ole Miss)
Players transferring
Sam Leavitt (QB, LSU) transferred from Arizona State
Brendan Sorsby (QB, Texas Tech) transferred from Cincinnati
Byrum Brown (QB, Auburn) transferred from USF
Josh Hoover (QB, Indiana) transferred from TCU
John Henry Daley (DE, Michigan) transferred from Utah
Raleek Brown (RB, Texas) transferred from Arizona State
Xavier Chaplin (T, Florida State) transferred from Auburn
Billy Edwards Jr (QB, North Carolina) transferred from Wisconsin
Drew Mestemaker (QB, Oklahoma State) transferred from North Texas
Cade Uluave (LB, portal) —transferring from California
Preston Zachman (S, Indiana) transferred from Wisconsin
Jaden Craig (QB, TCU) transferred from Harvard
Earl Little Jr (S, Ohio State) transferred from Florida State
Justice Haynes (RB, portal) transferring from Michigan
Dylan Raiola (QB, Oregon) transferred from Nebraska
AJ Harris (CB, Indiana) transferred from Penn State
Notable prospects eligible for 2027
Colin Simmons (EDGE, Texas)
Dylan Stewart (EDGE, South Carolina)
Jeremiah Smith (WR, Ohio State)
Leonard Moore (CB, Notre Dame)
Arch Manning (QB, Texas)
LaNorris Sellers (QB, South Carolina)
CJ Bailey (QB, NC State)
Nico Iamaleava (QB, UCLA)
Kewan Lacy (RB, Ole Miss)
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