Here’s what stood out to me in week seven:
— Quinn Ewers looked incredibly rusty in his return to action for Texas. His accuracy was off all day and it’s a credit to the rest of the team that they still dominated Oklahoma.
It started poorly and never really got going for Ewers. On a 3rd and 14 on his first drive he did well to step into the pocket but then fired way over an open receiver. It led to a gift of an interception for the deep defender. An awful throw.
He then misfired on a third down on his second drive — showing uncharacteristic impatience and rushing an inaccurate throw short to a wide open receiver down the middle of the field. If he keeps his composure there, it’s an easy touchdown.
You kept waiting for the rust to be knocked off and his best form to emerge, especially since Oklahoma offered so little resistance. It never came.
This game alone won’t impact evaluations but teams will be eager to see him play a lot better. He gets a game’s grace after returning from injury. Next week he plays Georgia and then the week after he travels to Vanderbilt. It’s no exaggeration to suggest those two games might define his stock — as well as any potential run in the playoffs.
— Wisconsin left tackle Jack Nelson is an underrated offensive lineman we’ve talked about a lot. I thought he did a really good job against Rutgers yesterday, again highlighting why he’s worthy of our attention.
Nelson dominated the edge rushers he faced showing off great footwork to protect the blindside of his quarterback. His footwork was textbook, he never lost balance and you could see how controlled his hands and body were as they worked together.
However, he isn’t a left tackle. Later in the game Rutgers started testing him with some inside moves and he struggled. He did a passable job at trying to recover and regain an angle but you could see Rutgers were targeting him with this tactic. It suggests he oversets to the edge and isn’t a natural to play the blindside.
I’m not overly concerned by this though because I think his home is at guard. When he can play square, attach himself to a defender and finish, he’s very good. I think he has plus potential kicking inside and could be a value pick on day two.
— While Miami’s Cam Ward has shown in recent games that old habits die hard, Saturday’s game between Alabama and South Carolina was a further sign that people talking up Jalen Milroe as a high first round pick need to chill their beans.
He is still showing no signs of an ability to sit in the pocket, process and move the chains. He had an awful, jittery overthrow on a screen pass that was almost picked off when facing a little pressure. He struggles on third downs in the pocket. He continues to play in a ‘one read and run’ style that is not transferable.
Milroe gave up a safety drifting back into his own end zone then throwing at the feet of an offensive lineman with no receiver in the area. It was terrible awareness. He had a horrendous interception before half-time — throwing into coverage with what should’ve been the last play of the half, gifting South Carolina a field goal after they returned the ball into range.
He then threw another bloody awful interception at the start of the fourth quarter — leaning back, lofting the ball to the back of the end zone. There are two defenders clearly waiting to pick the ball off. This is just bad quarterback play.
Why were people touting a place him for the top-10? Just because he ran around well against Georgia? His only passing touchdown in the game was a wide open easy throw on a blown coverage.
There are things to like about Milroe. He has excellent character, he’s clearly a brilliant athlete and as a runner he can be really dynamic. His arm strength is good and it enables him to make plays downfield. However, he is not showing technical improvement like many are suggesting, he shows no evidence of any progressions, pocket savvy or technical quality. He is a one-read passer who will set off running if the read isn’t open.
Milroe requires major work for the next level and will need time operating with a great offensive leader. He warrants a day two grade for his physical upside but he’s a long way off all of the first round and top-10 chatter some in draft media were chucking out there.
From the same game, I thought Kyle Lennard — who we’ve talked about before — had a terrific game. He slipped inside to push the lineman back using power. He attacked the edge with quickness and burst. He’s comfortable mushing his rush to play read/react. Kennard has done as much as anyone to upgrade his stock this year and he should be in the day two conversation pre-testing and Senior Bowl. He finished with two sacks and three TFL’s. TJ Sanders also commanded plenty of respect from Alabama and the undersized Tonka Hemingway had a nice sack. South Carolina has some quality players on defense.
— Iowa center Logan Jones had another extremely impressive game against Washington. He dominated the interior, using his low center of gravity and explosive power to attack opponents off the snap. I’ve spoken to NFL evaluators about what they look for in a center and the common refrain is they want someone who shoots his hands quickly and plays in attack mode. That’s what Jones does. He drove UW defenders off the line and a lot of Kaleb Johnson’s best runs were up the gut. He also shows off a strong back to drop the anchor. Jones is definitely one to watch. I have him graded in round two.
Exceptional running back Kaleb Johnson also had another blistering day. He is silky smooth and almost glides when he gets an opening. He snakes through gaps with great agility, has the hip work to create big gains and he can cut and explode upfield. He also has the size and desire to finish runs. Johnson is a terrific playmaker and the clear RB2 in this draft with legit big-time NFL potential. I think he’s a top-50 prospect in the 2025 class.
— Penn State tight end Tyler Warren has been on our radar for weeks and we’ve discussed how he’d played his way into fringe first round consideration. He flashed again on Saturday, recording 224 receiving yards in an overtime win against USC.
He’s used virtually as a #1 target. Drew Allar constantly looks for him. It does need to be mentioned that they kept running the same pick/screen to Warren that USC had no idea how to stop. He got a lot of joy from a concept the NFL wouldn’t be toiling with to this extent. However, he can also move around the formation to find soft spots in coverage. He’s a good athlete and he’s tremendously reliable with his hands — making several highlight-reel catches this season.
His touchdown was an incredible contested grab on a 40-yard trick-play downfield. He finished every run after the catch with a thumping hit. Warren also showed agility weaving through traffic. Penn State line him up under center too for throwing trickery or direct snaps/runs. Only Ashton Jeanty has played as consistently well as Warren this season.
Allar threw three interceptions in another performance that just reminded me of my favourite comp — Mike Glennon. The first pick was a poor throw into coverage over the middle. He doesn’t ID the defender and it’s a really poor decision. The second pick — again I don’t understand what he’s reading. He threw into traffic, it’s a tipped pass and it’s picked off. You can’t make these throws. The third interception was a poor attempt at a Hail Mary that didn’t reach the end zone.
In fairness to Allar, he did make two huge 4th down conversions late in the game to keep Penn State alive. Yet his touchdowns were only the double pass to Warren who did all the work in the end zone and a check-down to Nicholas Singleton on a blown coverage. I find it difficult to muster much enthusiasm for Allar and still view him as a day three pick.
— Garrett Nussmeier is a baller. He made some mistakes against Ole Miss but just kept firing back. The errors didn’t get to him and when LSU needed a ballsy throw in a big moment, he delivered.
We’ve talked about how he’s technically the best quarterback eligible for next year and he showed that again here. He doesn’t have massive traits but he’s adept at throwing with anticipation and timing, he makes more NFL-level throws than any other QB in college football and in this contest he showed he can win a big game for his team when the pressure’s on.
Look at the pocket awareness on this throw, keeping his eyes downfield and executing:
Great snap of Garrett Nussmeier's pocket movement and willingness to keep his eyes down field. pic.twitter.com/VFkmMYoxiu
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 13, 2024
This is a NFL play. He shifts away from the pressure and navigates the defender well, keeps his eyes downfield and executes the pass.
On the fourth down touchdown throw to tie the game with seconds remaining, look at the anticipation on this throw:
Spider-cam angle of that Garrett Nussmeier TD throw to tie the game. 4th & ballgame with a couple of turnovers on the night and he kept firing away. https://t.co/e7GceJuYg5 pic.twitter.com/4JwITvi3x2
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 13, 2024
His footwork actually isn’t great here, he’s hopping to his left for no reason and it takes some velocity off the pass. He actually ends up throwing across his body — not ideal. Yet look at the anticipation and the ability to still execute. The receiver is nowhere to be seen when he releases the ball and it is perfect accuracy to the spot he’s running into.
Here’s the standard broadcast view of the touchdown. There are 30 seconds remaining and it’s 4th and 5. This is the ball game right here:
Perfectly layered dart over the seam on a secondary read with the game on the line
I will NOT get off the Nuss Busspic.twitter.com/dZOAtsVW4Y
— Nico (@elitetakes_) October 13, 2024
Nussmeier actually has a lot more natural talent than I think people are giving him credit for. Look at this throw. It’s perfect placement, off-structure and improvised with his footwork. It’s an incredible pass:
overturned as an incomplete pass but a near-doozy pic.twitter.com/36n7aDqY5i
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 13, 2024
In the post-game press conference Nussmeier called it ‘one of the worst games of his career’. He won his team the game and he’s pissed off about the turnovers. I like that. He isn’t flawless and the mistakes and lack of elite traits prevent you from going all-in on a top draft projection. At the moment I have him in round two. I don’t think he’ll declare and will likely prefer a second season starting at LSU — unless he leads a great playoff run and wants to strike while the iron’s hot. However, there is talent here and a technical quality that is beyond most college passers.
One thing I am wary of though is a lack of mobility. Increasingly in the NFL I think the ability to scramble, extend and create is important. Brock Purdy, not known as a mad scrambler, is showing he can do it this season and his game has reached a new level. Nussmeier is very much a pocket passer. Whenever the Seahawks do ultimately draft a young quarterback, I’d ideally like that player to be able to get out of the pocket and avoid pressure when necessary. Not at the expense of being a terrible pocket passer though — and that is where Nussmeier excels.
Another note from this game — LSU tight end Mason Taylor is a really interesting player within this star-studded TE class. If the top players declare, we could see 5-7 tight ends taken in the first two rounds.
— Last week we highlighted UNLV’s brilliant receiver Ricky White III. He had another excellent outing on Saturday, gaining 138 yards and two touchdowns on seven receptions. It doesn’t matter whether he’s well covered or not — he makes spectacular, difficult catches downfield. He has ample speed. His body control is excellent. His body type really reminds me of Nuk Hopkins. He has a similar level of sophistication in his route running and concentration too. For me he’s a top-50 talent in this draft class and a good Senior Bowl and combine could propel him into round one. He’s one of the best kept secrets in the 2025 draft.
— Donovan Jackson had a disappointing 2024 season but I thought the Ohio State guard had his best game in a long time last weekend and he followed it up against Oregon. He was powerful and drove opponents off the ball consistently. They often ran to his side and he made key blocks on an early fourth down conversion and a touchdown run by quarterback Will Howard. He pulled to the right side with ease and connected with his blocks in the open field. He stood up well in pass-pro — holding blocks for long stretches to allow the QB a good pocket to throw from. Jackson was beaten on a quick inside move that ended in a forced fumble but it was the only real blemish. He has excellent physical tools and an ideal body type for the position. He looks like the player who once garnered first round chatter and based on the last two games, he’s a top-45 pick. That’s good news for teams in need of a good, young left guard. It’d be something to be quite enthusiastic about if the Seahawks hadn’t suddenly shown they are far further away from contention than simply adding one highly drafted guard.
There was some bad news from the game — Ohio state left tackle Josh Simmons, my top rated tackle on the horizontal board, suffered a suspected season-ending knee injury.
— Nothing sums Shedeur Sanders up better than the sequence that saw him give up an avoidable grounding penalty for a big loss, only to then come roaring back on a 2nd and 28 to complete the perfect touch pass downfield for a first down, only to then throw a lousy interception over the middle. Sanders is very much a ‘yes! no! yes! no!’ type of player. He has all the talent in the world and can make things happen. He also makes big mistakes — none more so than his preference to throw downfield at inopportune times. For example, there was a 4th and 5 situation with the game on the line. He took the snap, assessed his options and then threw a downfield fade to the right sideline. There’s a minute to go. It’s not the time for a deep shot — move the chains. Keep the game alive.
This is already not a good class at the top of round one with a dearth of legit top-10 players. The quarterbacks not elevating to gain position in that range isn’t helping.
It’s also worth noting that Travis Hunter left the Colorado/Kansas State game with an injury. There’s no news on how serious it is. DJ Giddens, Kansas State’s tremendous running back, had a typically productive game. He has a little Alvin Kamara to his game. I think he’s RB3 and a top-70 pick.
— Boise State’s Heisman favourite Ashton Jeanty ran for another 217 yards, this time adding 20 receiving yards, to go with two touchdowns. He again ran with physicality, running over defenders, and had a big 54-yard rush. He’s a top-10 pick.
I am considering posting where my horizontal board is currently, at least through rounds 1-3, at some point this week. I haven’t watched every player and there’s still time for others to elevate their stock. But I want to show where I have certain players graded as things stand.