Seahawks Draft Blog

The Jets are paying Breece Hall $15.25m a year on his new contract. That makes him the third highest paid running back in the league based on average salary.

Eventually he’ll be overtaken by Bijan Robinson, who will likely become the top paid runner in the league on more than $21m a year. Jahmyr Gibbs will also probably move above Hall when he gets his new deal.

Ken Walker is currently the fifth highest paid running back on $14.35m a year. He’s two spots ahead of Jeremiyah Love, who will earn a guaranteed contract worth $13.3m a season.

Jadarian Price’s rookie deal will pay him an estimated $4.2m a year. That will likely place him as the 33rd highest paid runner in the NFL.

Provided running production doesn’t suffer a dramatic drop-off based on what you had over the last four years with Walker working with Zach Charbonnet, that will be a bargain. There’s also the possibility that he could even be more successful, making this an even better move.

The Seahawks are in a healthy cap situation as Curtis Allen brilliantly laid out last week. Yet when you’re in a position where you’ve already paid Charles Cross and Jaxon Smith-Njigba big money, you will extend Devon Witherspoon’s contract in the coming weeks or months, you will eventually hope to give Derick Hall a new deal and you face the prospect of talking to players like Sam Darnold, Byron Murphy and AJ Barner in the next off-season, while potentially having to replace some of your experienced D-linemen, you have to find savings where you can.

Building a NFL roster is like piecing a puzzle together. The Seahawks won a Super Bowl because they did a better job than any other team creating a depth of balanced talent across all three units.

The best way to maintain that is going to be calculated gambles to save money where you can. Not keeping Walker and pivoting to Price is a good example. There will be similar challenging decisions to come in the future — possibly including at quarterback, depending on how the next season plays out.

The Seahawks appear very aware of these challenges. There’s no guarantee they’ll get all of the big decisions right but it should be seen as encouraging that they are detaching emotion from the situation and are reviewing each call with a nod to the present and future.

For everyone wringing their hands about spending the 32nd pick in a mediocre draft on a running back — they’d be better off acknowledging that rather than making a massive investment at a position they see as fungible, the Seahawks actually made a very calculated move to limit their investment at running back because they know they’ll need the cap and cash dollars down the line.

This is a guest article by Curtis Allen…

The Seahawks stand in a very good position with their salary cap.  They currently have a Zen-like balance on the roster — featuring a mix of productive young players and veterans who set the pace for the team while carrying cap numbers that are not debilitating.

Added to that, they have cap space to pay the bills and add or further retain talent without putting much strain on the company credit card.

To be in such an advantageous position right after winning the Super Bowl is a major testament to the way John Schneider and the rest of the Front Office have coalesced with the coaching staff.

A brief overview of the near future bears that out.  We will start with the basics and then talk about options and decisions that need to be made.

The 2026 Salary Cap

OvertheCap.com currently has them with $32.74 million.  They estimate it will cost them about $3.4 million to sign their draft class, leaving them with a little over $29 million of room.

Earmarking the standard $10 million for the Practice Squad and injury replacement players, that leaves them with about $19 million free and clear to spend.

The addition of Dante Fowler Jr for a reported “up to” $5 million number is a brilliant depth move that effectively replaces Boye Mafe in terms of production at a very reasonable cost.

If we count the full value of that contract towards the cap, that takes the number down to $15 million ($5 million cap hit + $1 million they get back for kicking player #51 off the top 51 that count towards the cap).

The other primary move that most likely will happen is the extension of Devon Witherspoon.  The Seahawks picked up their fifth-year option for 2027 at $21 million and intend to work out a contract extension.

Witherspoon currently accounts for $10.13 million on the 2026 cap.  As a #5 overall pick, his cap number is a healthy one for the fourth year of his contract.

As an exercise, I took the Trent McDuffie contract (4y/$134m), gave it to Witherspoon and modeled it after Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s deal:

So even if he becomes the highest-paid corner in the league, with the Seahawks structuring his contract similarly to Smith-Njigba’s, it will only eat about $2 million more for 2026.

That leaves the Seahawks with about $13 million to spend.

One option to explore if they wish: They can easily pick up another $8.25 million or so in cap room with a simple restructuring of Sam Darnold’s contract.  This could be for a specific purpose, or just to give John Schneider the capacity to make one of his patented in-season value trades to address a need.  If they do not use that space, they can just roll it into 2027 and apply it as they wish.

Just to reiterate: Bringing back every critical element from your Championship team, extending your core players, drafting to fill key needs, collecting compensatory picks, adding that one-more-veteran from the marketplace and still having cap room left over for the year is tremendous work.

The 2027 Cap

Currently OTC has the Seahawks’ number at $54.58 million with 35 players under contract.

That number does not include:

— Any cap rolled over from 2026

— The 2026 rookie class salaries

— Any cap adjustments resulting from the Witherspoon extension

— Any new contracts or adjustments made this summer or fall

The cap charges for the ’26 rookie class will be about $12 million in 2027.  That leaves about $42.5 million left with 43 players under contract.

Another draft class will likely clock in around the same, about $12 million.  That leaves about $30 million of room with the full 51 players.

(As a side note – let’s just tuck the projected eleven draft picks for 2027 – twelve if Defensive Coordinator Aden Durde is hired as a Head Coach – in our back pocket for now.  Having that many choices in a strong draft with a roster already loaded is like playing with a whole extra pile of money.)

To know:  that 2027 number includes a $21 million cap hit for Witherspoon’s fifth year option.  From the above, I estimated the team saves about $8.7 million with the extension and structuring, so call that about $38 million in cap room before the September costs for the Practice Squad.

Key Unrestricted Free Agents include Leonard Williams, Derick Hall, Uchenna Nwosu, Dante Fowler, Zach Charbonnet, Anthony Bradford and Jason Myers.

Jalen Sundell will be a Restricted Free Agent.  The Seahawks will almost certainly tender him barring something drastic happening this year.

Also — DeMarcus Lawrence is under contract but his 2027 is undetermined.

That $38 million can be used to extend or replace nearly all those players.

They also have levers they can pull to create much more cap space.  Two straightforward methods: Extending or restructuring Sam Darnold’s contract and Cooper Kupp has $14 million in non-guaranteed money on his 2027 number.  They could more than double their available space with moves on these two players alone.

Later in the year, they can consider extending Ernest Jones Jr and Julian Love, both of whom will still be under age 30.  That will make a healthy portion of salary cap room.

This is a snapshot of what will be on the menu when 2027 comes around.  Much can and will change between now and then.

Conclusions

The Seahawks are in a very sweet spot.  They have a championship roster, featuring a Quarterback on a bargain contract, an Offensive Line that is both young and team-controlled for the near future, a Wide Receiver coming off an Offensive Player of the Year campaign, a defense blended with a mix of youth, experience and toughness led by a Head Coach who is confounding some of the league’s best offensive minds.  It is all tied together by a reasonably-priced depth chart that is one of the NFL’s best Special Teams units.

In years past, Seahawk teams were loaded down by ‘comatose cap space’ — players on the roster with sizable cap hits that could not provide the value they were signed for.  Those days are done.

The team ethos, the blend of talent, the coaching, and the contract constructions are working together beautifully.

Would it be ideal for the team to have more cap space?  Sure.  More cap space is fun.

But this saying comes to mind: ‘A ship is safe in the harbor but that is not what ships are for.’

Having a large bank of cap space on a spreadsheet is fun.  But that is not what cap space is for.  Its purpose is to be spent wisely on quality players.  It is a ‘good problem’ when you must maneuver your cap space a bit and choose between bringing back players or taking the compensatory pick because of having so many quality players on your team.

That is where John Schneider has led the Seahawks.

And we can trust he will continue to recognize core needs for the team and successfully address them.

Speaking of core needs…

The Challenge of the Defensive Line in 2027

It has not escaped anyone’s notice that as of this moment, Leonard Williams, Derick Hall, Dante Fowler and Uchenna Nwosu are not under contract for next season.  Add to that the uncertainty over DeMarcus Lawrence and that Jarran Reed may need to start rationing snaps to stay fresh and it is currently an area of real concern.

If Lawrence decides to retire that will open $20 million in cap space ($9.5m this year, $10.5m next year) that can be directly applied to filling his spot.  I think everyone involved or interested in the team would rather have Lawrence than the cap space but the situation still needs to be played out.

Nwosu played his first full season after back-to-back injury-shortened years and played well but seemed to fade a bit down the stretch, recording only 1.5 sacks and eight pressures in the last nine games of the season (although he did clinch the Super Bowl win with a huge play).

John Schneider indicated to Brady Henderson that the team will not work to adjust his contract this year, perhaps feeling they want to wait and see how he responds to a ‘finally healthy offseason’ and then decide what to do.

That leaves Williams and Hall.  If those two were secured beyond this season, that would lend a great deal of stability and continuity to the defensive front.  The team would not need to rebuild one of the most important position groups on the roster and could rather focus on only supplementing it with further moves.

Assuming both are agreeable to signing extensions and Williams wants to continue playing, could the team work out something with both that is equitable and makes sense with their current cap situation?

Absolutely yes.

In fact, rather than being a burden, extending Williams could provide the opportunity to improve the Seahawks’ cap outlook for this year and next year.  Let me illustrate.

Earlier this year, I proposed a two-year $40 million extension for Williams.  You can read my reasoning on it here.

Currently, Williams has a big $29.6 million cap hit for 2026 and $9.37 million in 2027 for dead money that hits the cap when his contract voids on February 20 (more on that in a minute).

An extension retains a core player, evens out the cap burden and – maybe most importantly – is cash-neutral for 2026.  It also provides the kind of flexibility and options that the Seahawks need to continue to make beneficial moves as they see fit.

Have a look:

The $40 million is split between salary for 2027-28, the per game roster bonuses and a $15 million roster bonus that hits early 2027.

We convert the bulk of Williams’ 2026 salary to a signing bonus and add two void years to spread out the cost.  That takes his cap number down by $11.6 million this year, giving the team the flexibility to use that for further moves or to simply roll it into 2027.

Currently, the cash layout for Williams this year is $16.65 million ($15.8 million salary and $850k for PG roster bonus).  This extension keeps the layout the same amount, just changes the proportions ($1.3 million salary, $14.5 million bonus and $850k for PG roster bonus).

This is important to the team, as they have spent a ton of cash this year and will very likely end up in the top-three in the NFL once Witherspoon’s extension (and maybe Hall’s as well) is worked out.

2027 is also set up nicely.  A juicy $15 million roster bonus is there as a nice carrot for Williams to consider when deciding whether to keep playing.  It also could help the Seahawks’ offseason planning, since a roster bonus comes with a trigger date.

It also takes advantage of the $9.37 million in void money and spreads it out to even out the impact.  If they can agree to this extension before February 20 (or mutually agree to push out the void date like the Eagles did with Dallas Goedert’s contract), they can defer $4.68 million to 2028 and lessen the cap charge.

The result is an impact to the cap of “only” $23.06 million in 2027.  If you consider the  cumulative change to the cap in both years, the additional impact is $11.46 million.  A small price to pay for a player of Williams’ stature.

And further, the Seahawks can easily convert the 2027 Roster Bonus to a Signing Bonus and split out the impact over the rest of the contract, making 2026-27 nearly cap-neutral:

In this scenario, if Williams retires in 2028, $24.6 million dead money is left and can be split between 2028 and 2029.  The Seahawks pick up about $14 million in 2028 cap room.

The point being the Seahawks can retain Williams without significantly impacting their ability to make other moves.  It just takes both parties to work together to make it happen.

Compared to Williams, Derick Hall’s contract is straightforward.  He will be coming off his rookie contract, and the Seahawks can easily make it workable for both parties.

I gave Hall a three-year, $70 million contract with an $18 million signing bonus.  Boye Mafe got $60 million over three years from Cincinnati in Free Agency and it is clear the Seahawks value Hall more than Mafe.  A nice bump helps him sign now and not be tempted by a crazy market in 2027.  He also lines himself up for another very healthy contract at age 28 or 29:

As you can see, the cap impact to 2026 is easily affordable for the team.  2027 is not terribly prohibitive and even 2028 is not too heavy.

Getting Williams and Hall to sign extensions would be another very good day’s work for the team.  It would build continuity on the defense and ensure that key players like Devon Witherspoon, Byron Murphy and Nick Emmanwori can deliver the maximum impact possible.

All of this is possible due to the strategic handling of their cap and contracts, married to a coaching staff that knows how to deliver the best from the players provided to them.

For the last few years, John Boyle has written a great article discussing some of the events from within the Seahawks’ draft room. Obviously no trade secrets are shared — but there’s always a fed tidbits to get into.

You can read the full piece here.

When you combine the piece with the one written by ESPN’s Brady Henderson last week, I think there are a few ‘secrets’ to discuss…

— Boyle references the reaction to a pick in the 20’s that was seen as a reach by the Seahawks. In Brady’s piece, he noted, “some in the organization preferred (Beau Stephens) to Georgia Tech guard Keylan Rutledge. It’s pretty easy to assume that the pick the Seahawks thought was a ‘major’ reach (as they call it) was the Texans selecting Rutledge at #26.

— When there were 10 picks left in round one, according to Boyle, the Seahawks had two players remaining with first round grades, “plus a handful more that are right on the line of being late-first or early-second rounders.” My guess is the two players with first round grades were Dillon Thieneman and Chris Johnson.

— Per Boyle, “At least one defensive player the Seahawks liked went off the board late in round one, drawing a reaction from the room.” With Brady also reporting the Seahawks were prepared to select Chris Johnson, it seems fairly straight forward to assume it was Johnson being taken by the Dolphins that disappointed the Seahawks.

— Going back to the comment of their being “a handful” of players right on the line of the first round, it does feel like the Seahawks had a collection of similarly graded players. Brady had noted in the past they liked R Mason Thomas. I can well imagine Treydon Stukes might’ve been in the conversation. Then there’s obviously Jadarian Price, who they took at #32. I’d said a few times before the draft I’d spoken to very respectable people in the league who viewed Price as an early second round prospect.

— After the 55th pick, Boyle says the Seahawks had two players left on their board with second round grades — one was a pass rusher, the other was Bud Clark. I think this is interesting for a couple of reasons. Firstly — I wasn’t very high on Emmanuel McNeil-Warren or Anthony Hill Jr and thought both players were overrated in the media. Based on John’s article, the Seahawks didn’t consider either player worthy of a second round grade. Who was the pass-rusher? The next two to go were Keyron Crawford and Romello Height. They had Crawford in for a visit. If nothing else, it shows we were somewhat on the right track.

In my final mock I had Chris Johnson at #32, Keyron Crawford at #64 and Jonah Coleman at #96. That sounds like a plausible scenario based on what’s being discussed here.

— A defender the Seahawks liked at #96 apparently came off the board just before they picked. Brady’s piece noted the Seahawks liked pass-rushers Derrick Moore, R Mason Thomas and Jaishawn Barham. The Cowboys took Barham with the 92nd pick — so again, it seems pretty clear he was the player they were showing interest in. Boyle notes they had similarly graded players in that range, presumably that included Julian Neal.

— We discussed before the draft that there were opinions in the league that Beau Stephens warranted a day-two grade. I did a couple of mocks with the Seahawks taking him as high as #64. Per Boyle’s report, they clearly thought highly of him. By the end of the fourth round, Stephens was, “well above the rest of the field on their draft board.” It was a dynamic move to be aggressive and go get him. He might’ve been taken in round five but the Seahawks clearly rated him much higher than that.

— Brady, who as usual has been on top of things (and it was great to see him featured on ESPN with Dan Graziano), reported today that the Seahawks had a third round grade on Ty Simpson. It shouldn’t be a surprise — I imagine that was probably the league consensus on Simpson. Adam Schefter previously suggested that Simpson wouldn’t have been taken in round one, or at #34 by Arizona, had the Rams not selected him at #13.

It was a bizarre decision by LA, especially with the likes of Vega Ioane, Rueben Bain Jr and several others still on the board. They passed on an opportunity to load up an already strong roster with a quality player, to reach for a quarterback with only 15 college starts and a not altogether high ceiling.

Tomorrow Curtis will have a great cap review to dig into, be sure to check it out.

This was my final visit with Bump & Stacy today for draft season, so please check it out and if you can — leave a comment and a like!

Brady Henderson has published a typically excellent breakdown of the Seahawks draft, with a few very interesting nuggets included. I wanted to touch on a few things we should remember for next year.

Tackling is important at cornerback

Brady noted, as he did during our recent conversation, that San Diego State cornerback Chris Johnson was a target with the 32nd pick. He was selected by the Dolphins at #27.

Johnson’s ‘missed tackle percentage’ in 2025 was 5.6% — fifth best among a deep cornerback draft class. Julian Neal wasn’t far behind (7.3%) and neither was Colton Hood (6.6%) — a player touted as a possible alternative had the Seahawks not been able to select Jadarian Price.

Other players I’d discussed before the draft, such as Hezekiah Masses and Chandler Rivers, both struggled in this area. They are both good players but with 15.3% and 16.2% missed tackles respectively, they ranked among the worst in the class. This possibly made them less appealing.

In future, when considering cornerback options for the Seahawks, this is something I will keep in mind. Especially with higher picks (rounds 1-3). Andre Fuller’s rate was a 10.9% and Michael Dansby’s was an eye-watering 21.4%. Clearly the later you go in the draft, it’s not a deal breaker.

It’s possibly not such a key factor at safety either. Bud Clark missed 14.5% of his tackles. That ranked 94th among draft eligible safeties.

Zone-blocking fit is key for offensive linemen

The Seahawks have really benefitted from zoning-in (no pun intended) on a specific blocking scheme and tailoring their decision making to outside zone. Last year, Grey Zabel and Bryce Cabeldue were among the top graded zone-blockers eligible. This year, they selected Beau Stephens.

His zone grade of 89.5 was third overall in the class. Brady notes there were certain members of the Seahawks’ front office who liked him more than Keylan Rutledge. For what it’s worth, Rutledge’s zone grade was a 77.4.

I never thought it was likely the Seahawks would take Chase Bisontis early (66.0 grade) and while they passed on Emmanuel Pregnon, who had the top zone grade in the class, there may be other reasons for that. It may never have been their intention to spend a high pick on an interior O-liner and they just saw a great opportunity to trade back into the fifth round to get Stephens.

I know there were people who viewed Stephens as a day-two talent and he possibly lasted deep into day three due to limitations in his physical profile.

Still, the Seahawks made their move, and having great clarity on what they want in their offensive system is something we probably need to be aware of. It seems clear they want players who played well in zone coming into the league.

Thoughts on the EDGE rushers they reportedly liked

Brady mentioned three names — Oklahoma’s R Mason Thomas and Michigan duo Derrick Moore and Jaishawn Barham. It’s hard to decipher what that means we should look for, other than to say all three play with a lot of ‘juice’.

Thomas (20.3%) and Moore (19.8%) had strong pass-rush win percentages but Barham (13.1%) did not. Thomas’ max-speed via GPS (19.6mph) was second only to Keyshawn James-Newby among the names I have data for — but his max-speed over 0-10 yards (14.4mph) was the lowest on my list. He also only ran a 1.63 10-yard split at 241lbs.

Size also doesn’t seem to be a big factor. Barham was 240lbs at the combine, so he’s in the same range as Thomas.

It might simply be a mentality thing. I thought Moore was average on tape but he was physical and played with a lot of effort. Thomas was relentless. Barham played with a lot of physicality and was a terror vs the run.

One thing I would note — a year ago there was a feeling the Seahawks would be interested if Jalon Walker fell into range (he was drafted 15th overall by the Falcons). He was a linebacker/EDGE hybrid who played with a great level of aggression and motor. He was 243lbs at his combine.

I know, speaking to people in the league, there were discussions about how best to use R Mason Thomas at the next level — and whether he needed to be more of a hybrid. That is what you’d be getting with Barham for certain.

It’s possible the Seahawks are on the look out for that type of rusher. It’s perhaps not a surprise — Aden Durde has first-hand experience with Micah Parsons in that role in Dallas.

It doesn’t mean they’ll exclusively look at these types — but it appears they do have some interest in hybrid type rushers and that’s something to remember going forward.

Special teams matters

The fact that Brady name-checked Kendrick Law as an alternative to Emmanuel Henderson Jr was interesting. It made it clear that the Seahawks were specifically targeting a player with special teams in mind.

It’s hardly a big revelation that they value special teams. Being supremely balanced across the three units on the roster is a key reason why the Seahawks are Super Bowl Champions. It’s not something we spent much time looking at though before the 2026 draft. That’ll be different next year — I’ll be sure to dig around, and ask around, to find out who provides the best special teams value later in the draft.

Final thoughts on Jadarian Price

I’m trying to get more data for the running back class, to find an angle on the fact he ran a surprisingly slow 1.61 10-yard split.

What I do know is his GPS max-speed over 0-10 yards last season was 17.1mph. That compares favourably to the rest of Seattle’s class:

Michael Dansby — 18.2
Andre Fuller — 17.9
Emmanuel Henderson Jr — 17.5
Jadarian Price — 17.1
Julian Neal — 17.0
Bud Clark — 16.8

Price is heavier than all of the names above apart from Julian Neal (they both weighed 203lbs at the combine). Emmanuel Henderson Jr, Bud Clark and Andre Fuller all ran 1.56 10-yard splits, while Neal ran a 1.59.

It’s not something I’m overly concerned about. A running back needs to combine vision, burst, decisiveness and power when they receive the football — they aren’t just sprinting off a standing start. I never watched Price on tape and thought he lacked initial quickness. The one area I think he can stand to improve is lower body power for short yardage plundering.

Arizona Cardinals

For starters, I’m not bothered that the Cardinals — in drafting a running back third overall — will guarantee Jeremiyah Love $50.5M, the most ever guaranteed to a player at his position.

You can’t let that impact your evaluation. It’s far worse to draft a lesser player, increasing the chances of that $50.5m being wasted, than it is to simply draft the player you want and think will have the best chance of succeeding.

I also don’t subscribe to the view that you *shouldn’t* take a running back early. It’s become a piece of football rhetoric overused by a section of very online types. The league currently has a handful of very important, very talented running backs who drive their teams to win games. Some of them, like Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, were high draft picks.

The question isn’t whether you should take Love at #3. If he’s your guy, it’s justifiable. It’s whether or not he should’ve been your guy.

Personally I thought Spencer Fano and Francis Mauigoa were both worth considering at #3. I never really understood the view that #3 was too high for either, yet they were both still typically mocked in the top-10. They are very good players playing premium positions capable of filling a huge void for the Cardinals.

Either player would’ve made Arizona more physical and tougher to beat up front and that should’ve been the aim of this draft as they prepare for what is likely to be a multiple-draft build.

If they didn’t rate Fano or Mauigoa, then fine. The Love pick is justifiable. I just think the smarter play would’ve been to add a cornerstone lineman, try to build a dominant pair of lines and lean on the trenches as the bedrock of a new era.

I wasn’t a big fan of Chase Bisontis as early as #34 but having passed on a lineman at #3, if he was their top guy it was an understandable decision. Pairing him with Fano or Mauigoa would’ve been a statement of intent worthy of respect.

Kaleb Proctor is worth a shot in round four. I’m not sure the tape of him wrecking the LSU O-line carries as much weight as the media have suggested though — LSU were arguably the worst coached team in college football in 2025 and their line struggled most weeks.

Then there’s Carson Beck in round three. I suppose you could say ‘why not’? They had no future at quarterback on the roster. A flier on a mid-round prospect, when they probably expect to be in the quarterback market again next year, is a reasonable shot to nothing.

I just have a hard time imagining Beck working in the league. His decision making has shown to be poor over two seasons with two different teams. He doesn’t see the field well enough. He lacks physical tools. He isn’t mobile and won’t be able to extend plays. He’s neither an accurate, surgical passer nor a physical dynamo. I can’t see him ever playing consistently good football, which begs the question wouldn’t they have been better off just adding more talent and rolling with Gardner Minshew or Jacoby Brissett as a bridge?

Overall I just don’t see this draft class changing their fortunes. It’s easy to imagine they’ll be very similar to last year, just with a more dynamic running back on the field. If the plan is to set the table for what might happen in the 2027 draft, I think putting everything into building a foundation would’ve been a better plan.

LA Rams

Let’s be clear, Ty Simpson isn’t a hopeless quarterback. There were definite flashes on tape — as we documented during the college season — where he showed genuine NFL-level throws. For a number of weeks we were talking about him potentially being QB1. That only changed when things tailed off towards the end of the season.

However, things did tail off. Despite the variety of excuses — illness, injury, teams sussing out what Alabama were doing — the fact is the season fell apart quickly and mistakes crept in. He went from a quarterback who protected the football and rarely turned it over to someone throwing a lot of interceptions and near-interceptions. He started to take sacks at a high rate as he attempted to keep plays alive without the escapability of Russell Wilson. You couldn’t help but wonder if we were getting a glimpse of what life would be like for him in the faster, more complex world of the NFL.

The ideal scenario would’ve been to go back to college, possibly with Miami who were sniffing around, and show that he could produce a full, consistent season of football. It would’ve been a low-risk move given the money on offer and the proven QB-platform the Hurricanes have become in the ACC. Yet he and his family seem to have been inspired by Rams GM Les Snead telling them Simpson would be a first round pick. I guess he didn’t lie.

Yet in the days after the draft, Adam Schefter reported that no other team would’ve taken Simpson in round one. The Cardinals wouldn’t have taken him at #34 either, according to Schefter. You just get the sense the Rams have reached in a quite epic way and for no obvious reason other than Matthew Stafford is 38-years-old and Simpson happened to be QB2 in a bad quarterback draft.

The aftermath of the pick has been handled shambolically.

Sean McVay’s phone call to Simpson portrayed a coach not entirely comfortable with the decision. The internet responded as you’d expect, leading the Rams PR machine to call any reporter in their phone contacts to explain McVay was simply ‘acting’ in order not to hurt Stafford’s feelings.

Firstly, if the Rams were worried about how Stafford would react to the call, just don’t put the video out. Or have Les Snead offer his congratulations to Simpson and leave it at that. This charade of McVay putting on a performance to send a message to Stafford is so laughable it’s astonishing that so many good people in the media have pedalled it without challenge.

For example, if they anticipated Stafford’s reaction and therefore created a ruse to placate him, how did they also not consider the reaction of the public to the pick if McVay is shown visibly seething not only during an awkward phone-call but also during a terse press conference?

What about Simpson’s feelings? Were they to be discarded given his big moment was spoilt somewhat by a performative gesture from his new coach? If I were Simpson, I’d have been a little bit anxious on draft night given what everyone was saying about McVay’s reaction.

And then there’s Stafford. Did he really need to see McVay looking a certain way to feel good about things in LA? That doesn’t sound very healthy. Could it not have been explained to him in a way that didn’t require McVay to do his best Ralph Fiennes impression when on the phone to Simpson? If I were Stafford, I’d be more insulted to hear my coach thought my ego needed him looking disinterested when speaking to the #13 overall pick than the concept of my potential future replacement being drafted.

It just seems like a farce. A badly handled situation that not enough people are willing to point out. It might not matter in the long run, when the actual football work gets underway and Simpson starts to learn from a master offensive mind and a brilliant veteran QB. We don’t need to baby the Rams though. They messed this up and should’ve had a better plan for dealing with their decision.

Should they have taken him? We’ll need to wait for the answer. I’m loathe to say ‘no’ because if he ends up being the long-term successful starter in LA, this will look foolish. He doesn’t have the typical physical traits you expect from a high pick though — nor the experience or success elevating his college team.

Dan Orlovsky tried to make an argument this week that the Rams wouldn’t have benefitted from drafting a receiver at #13 instead. It was a weak point that is easily dismissed. The Rams have Davante Adams who turns 34 on Christmas Eve and Puka Nacua — a player who has been on something of an adventure in recent months. They suffered when they lost Adams to injury late last season. It’s very easy to imagine how a dynamic, young receiver such as Makai Lemon could’ve helped them in a big way. If Adams or Nacua miss time — and who’d bet against that currently — the Rams may rue this decision.

It also didn’t have to be a receiver. Imagine Vega Ioane at left guard for the next 8-10 years. Or Rueben Bain Jr rotating into the pass-rush. Or Kenyon Sadiq operating within their TE-heavy system.

The only argument for drafting Simpson at #13 is that the Rams must really believe in him. They must see something that most (if not all) other teams haven’t seen. I can’t help but feel other teams would’ve been roundly criticised for this decision and the Rams are getting the benefit of the doubt. Perhaps that’s justifiable given their run under Snead and McVay. Or perhaps they should be critiqued more — not only for this selection but the execution of how they went about delivering the news.

Max Klare in round two felt like a big reach, as with the other tight ends drafted in a bizarre day-two run. Keagen Trost didn’t do much of anything in college until he landed at his fourth stop — Missouri. The Tigers are always tough and physical in the trenches but without the great traits of an Armand Membou, many of their players have struggled to make the step up to the NFL.

This feels like a low or even no impact draft class at a time when the Rams should be maximising their window after missing out last season.

One final thought — I always figured when the Rams moved on from Stafford they would repeat the act that bought them success in the first place. I thought they’d go out and trade for his replacement. I can imagine many quarterbacks would jockey for the opportunity to go and play for McVay in California. That could still happen in the near future, especially with rumblings about Joe Burrow applying some pressure on the Bengals to start winning. But you’d think the Rams would want to do everything they can to ‘win now’ with Stafford then just buy the next version whenever that time comes.

Maybe that’s easier said than done — but when a vacancy emerges in LA, a lot of quarterbacks would be pressuring to make that move if they thought they could make it happen.

San Francisco 49ers

I can’t tell you how boring I found the debate around ‘consensus boards’ online. Thankfully after a dull 24 hours my ‘for you’ timeline on X went back to the Vrabel/Russini saga and videos of dogs.

I am going to stick up for the 49ers here though. I think you have to judge every player on how you see them. You can’t be worrying what others think. Every year I fight having my own opinions influenced by what the media consensus is saying. Every national mock draft, you’ll have noticed, was virtually the same in the final month of this draft cycle. Group think takes hold and can be a problem.

When I watched De’Zhaun Stribling I thought he was a heck of a player. He did everything well. He also tested well. It’s very hard to find flaws in his game. So why shouldn’t the 49ers take him 33rd overall?

Everyone’s acting like this isn’t the team who found great value in this range with Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. I really liked both players when they entered the league and I like Stribling. I actually fear this will end up being a really smart pick by Kyle Shanahan.

That’s the other thing that needs pointing out here. John Lynch, the GM, is getting a heavy dose of criticism for San Francisco’s picks. Kyle runs the show. So unless he’s going to relinquish that power so the 49ers can hire a more orthodox GM, I think fingers are being pointed at the wrong person. Lynch is not doing the same job as John Schneider.

Now let’s go further down their list. Romello Height is perfectly acceptable value in round three and they needed a pass rusher. Grace Halton is cracking value in round four. I talked up Carver Willis a lot and think he could be a gem of a pick, also in round four. Ephesians Prysock is also well worth taking a chance on.

The only pick I think was a head-scratcher was Kaelon Black — that to me is likely going to just be another name we add to the list of running back flops drafted by Kyle in the middle rounds.

Overall though — if the Seahawks had picked these players, I’d be making the case for all of the names I mentioned above, with the exception of Black. I’m going to treat the Niners with the same critical eye. I think they added some good players.

Over the years they’ve added plenty of players I liked more than ‘the consensus’. That includes blog favourites Samuel, Aiyuk, Fred Warner, George Kittle and Talanoa Hufanga. I’m not saying this group will produce the same results but the idea the 49ers are useless at drafting doesn’t chime.

What I would say though is I’m not sure this class makes the 49ers a tougher proposition within the NFC West. For me, they needed to prioritise becoming the biggest, toughest and most physical unit in the division again. That’s how they bullied and dominated the NFC in the recent past. They should’ve focussed on the trenches.

Instead they spent big money on receivers and then their top draft asset on another. If anything, they look even more finesse today than they did a year ago. Meanwhile several key players will need to return from serious injuries and play at a high level for them to feel like a serious contender, rather than a banged-up overachiever like last year.

I like their collection of players and think the criticism of the value is wide of the mark. I’m just not sure they had the right plan this off-season to take on the best the NFC has to offer.

A quick programming note — tomorrow I’ll be joined again by Brady Henderson from ESPN for a live stream at 9:15am PT. In the meantime, check out my review of the draft class with Bump & Stacy below — and please like the video and leave a comment if you can…

Why did the Seahawks use the 32nd pick on Jadarian Price?

It’s a question a lot of people in the media are asking.

There isn’t going to be an ‘aha’ moment where we see one specific set of statistics or a testing score that suddenly explains everything.

However, we can use data to help explain why the Seahawks felt this particular running back was worth taking at the end of round one.

One of the data points we know the Seahawks look at is yards after contact per carry. John Schneider revealed as much during one of his recent interviews on Seattle Sports.

I looked at college career statistics for yards after contact per carry for every prominent running back over the last 10 years.

Here’s how the top-20 rank:

Ashton Jeanty — 4.76
Rhamondre Stevenson — 4.65
Travis Etienne — 4.51
Bijan Robinson — 4.40
Jeremiyah Love — 4.35
Rashaad Penny — 4.31
Jadarian Price — 4.28
Ken Walker — 4.27
Javonte Williams — 4.26
Jonathan Taylor — 4.24
Jonathon Brooks — 4.13
Josh Jacobs — 4.10
Omarion Hampton — 4.01
Cam Skattebo — 3.95
De’Von Achane — 3.93
Dalvin Cook — 3.93
TreVeyon Henderson — 3.89
Aaron Jones — 3.82
Bucky Irving — 3.81
Alvin Kamara — 3.77

There are a few things to note here. I gathered data for 36 running backs in total over 10 years. Jadarian Price ranked 7th. You can see the company he keeps near the top. You can also see the names he’s ranked above.

You can choose how much weight you personally want to place in this data point. If it’s something the Seahawks have worked out is significant for NFL success — and this list suggests it might be — it’s easy to see why they might think Price is well worth taking a chance on.

Half of the players ranked above Price were top-10 picks. 14 of the top-20 were first or second round picks. The other six are De’Von Achane, Aaron Jones, Alvin Kamara, Rhamondre Stevenson, Cam Skattebo and Bucky Irving. Achane, Jones and Kamara have gone on to become NFL stars. Stevenson is the 13th highest paid back in the league. Skattebo and Irving have shown early promise in their careers.

The list, if nothing else, is a collection of successful pro’s or players drafted early. If you place a lot of faith in yards after contact per carry, you can build a case for Price based on his data in this category.

It’s also worth noting the two players directly next to Price in the list. He’s just below Rashaad Penny and just above Ken Walker. Coincidentally their positions in the ranking mirror the order in which the Seahawks selected them — Penny 27th overall, Price 32nd and Walker 41st.

If you’re wondering why the Seahawks were prepared to draft all three players early — their placing in the list above might be a hint.

Obviously yards after contact per carry isn’t the be-all and end-all. Here’s how the next 16 players ranked:

Joe Mixon — 3.75
Nick Chubb — 3.71
Najee Harris — 3.69
JK Dobbins — 3.65
James Cook — 3.59
Ezekiel Elliott — 3.57
Zach Charbonnet — 3.54
Saquon Barkley — 3.51
David Montgomery — 3.50
Jahmyr Gibbs — 3.53
Derrick Henry — 3.27
Chase Brown — 3.26
Quinshon Judkins — 3.23
Breece Hall — 3.22
Leonard Fournette — 3.04
Christian McCaffrey — 2.89

Clearly Christian McCaffrey’s career hasn’t suffered due to a lack of yards after contact at Stanford. It’s quite striking to see Derrick Henry so far down the list too, plus Saquon Barkley.

The point isn’t to argue that every good player will score well here. It’s simply a single interesting piece of data that reflects well on Price.

Let’s look at a second piece of data — explosive run rate. This measures the rate in which players run for +10 yards among their college carries.

These numbers reflect rates for each player’s entire college career:

Javonte Williams — 23.3
Rhamondre Stevenson — 23.0
Najee Harris — 21.1
Rashaad Penny — 20.6
Joe Mixon — 20.3
De’Von Achane — 20.1
Dalvin Cook — 20.1
Jonathan Taylor — 19.8
Josh Jacobs — 19.8
Travis Etienne — 19.6
Jadarian Price – 19.2
James Cook — 18.7
Alvin Kamara — 18.7
Bucky Irving — 18.5
Nick Chubb — 18.3
Cam Skattebo — 18.0
TreVeyon Henderson — 17.5
Ezekiel Elliott — 17.3
Zach Charbonnet — 17.3
Jeremiyah Love – 17.1
Ken Walker — 16.7
Leonard Fournette — 16.7
Christian McCaffrey — 16.6
Ashton Jeanty — 16.6
Aaron Jones — 16.5
Saquon Barkley — 16.2
Bijan Robinson — 16.0
Chase Brown — 16.0
JK Dobbins — 15.6
Jahmyr Gibbs — 15.1
Omarion Hampton — 14.9
Quinshon Judkins — 14.7
David Montgomery — 14.4
Jonathon Brooks — 14.3
Breece Hall — 14.2

Price ranks 11th out of 36 and is within one percentage point of De’Von Achane, Dalvin Cook, Jonathan Taylor and Josh Jacobs. All but two players above him were drafted in the first or second round.

If nothing else, it highlights just how explosive he was in his college career. He produced big plays at a higher rate than most players entering the league. This also doesn’t take into account his three kick-return touchdowns and his average of 36.1 yards per attempt from 22 returns.

He’s a big play specialist who also produces strong results after contact. Coming into the league, he compares well to some of the best running backs in the NFL in both categories.

That’s something to consider when assessing whether he was worth the #32 pick — especially for a team who needed to add big plays to their running game.

It was a need because they opted not to pay Ken Walker $14.4m a year, with cap-hits in 2027 and 2028 of $18.7m.

Price’s projected average salary is $4.2m per year on his rookie contract. That’s a significant saving for a team that has already paid big money to Charles Cross and Jaxon Smith-Njigba and will need to pay big money again in the future to Devon Witherspoon and, next year, potentially Byron Murphy and Sam Darnold (not to mention possible new deals for players like Derick Hall and AJ Barner).

Finally, an argument could be made that the Seahawks could’ve waited until pick #96 to select a running back. Both Mike Washington Jr and Jonah Coleman, for example, were available.

Here’s how the three backs compare for career yards after contact per carry:

Jadarian Price — 4.28
Jonah Coleman — 4.12
Mike Washington Jr — 3.09

And here’s how they compare for career explosive run rate:

Jadarian Price — 19.2
Jonah Coleman — 16.7
Mike Washington Jr — 13.4

Price is ahead in both categories — significantly so when it comes to explosive plays (the key area of need for the Seahawks). The yards after contact per play data is reasonably similar between Price and Coleman but you need to consider this — if you pass on Price with the intention of selecting Coleman at #96, how can you be sure he’ll still be on the board? He was the #108 pick to Denver. That’s uncomfortably close and it wouldn’t have been a foregone conclusion he’d be there for you to select.

The risk of missing out completely had to play into the equation. The Seahawks could get the player who best fit what they needed with the #32 pick — eliminating any middle-round anxiety.

I’m not sure anyone can seriously argue selecting Colton Hood at #32 instead (for example), then hoping Coleman was there at #96, is clearly a better use of resources. The trio of Price, Bud Clark and Julian Neal sufficiently addressed three key need areas.