Isaiah Wilson is a probable option for the Seahawks
I’ll preface this by saying these are some of the options. Of course there are others that they could be higher on than I’m suggesting here. Yet we have a decade of evidence to work with in terms of previous decisions. So this is my best current guess.
Options at #27
Isaiah Wilson (T, Georgia)
Austin Jackson (T, USC)
Ezra Cleveland (T, Boise State)
Cesar Ruiz (C, Michigan)
Jalen Reagor (WR, TCU)
Denzel Mims (WR, Baylor)
Justin Jefferson (WR, LSU)
Jonathan Taylor (RB, Wisconsin)
Despite Seattle’s need for pass rushers, the options are severely limited in round one. The best fits in the first frame are at offensive tackle and the skill positions.
There’s clear evidence that the Seahawks value size, explosive power and run blocking in offensive linemen. They want speed and suddenness at wide receiver. They also have a physical ideal at running back that’s in the 5-10-to-6-0 range in height, 225lbs in weight with explosive traits.
At the combine, Isaiah Wilson finished second only to Tristan Wirfs in weighted TEF. That means he’s the second best combination of explosive traits and size in the O-line class. Although a lot of people will try and steer you to focus on things like agility for offensive linemen, there’s much more evidence that the league is focused on explosive traits (as highlighted in our combine preview). The Seahawks are no different in that regard.
Austin Jackson and Ezra Cleveland were also among the most explosive linemen at the combine. All three players, including Wilson, have +33 inch arms. Jackson and Cleveland are more suited to playing left tackle than right — yet all three players fit the typical physical profile the Seahawks have looked for in the Carroll era. Brandon Shell’s contract is more draft hedge that sure-fire solution. Jackson and Cleveland could also be groomed to be long term successors to Duane Brown.
At the moment the Seahawks appear set to carry Justin Britt’s contract and are well stocked with B.J. Finney and Joey Hunt in reserve at center. If it stays that way, they likely won’t spend a high pick on the position. However — Cesar Ruiz is an outstanding player with the size, length, explosive traits, character and leadership to lock-down the position for a decade. Check out my interview with Ruiz here.
The Seahawks have only drafted one receiver in the first four rounds under Carroll who didn’t run a 4.4 or faster. That was Chris Harper in 2013 — who ran a 4.50 and was taken in the fourth round. Quickness, speed and suddenness — regardless of size — has always been central in decision making at receiver. Again, we highlighted why in more detail during our big combine preview.
Jalen Reagor (4.47), Denzel Mims (4.38) and Justin Jefferson (4.43) fit the bill. Reagor’s explosive leaping ability to win contested catches and his ability to create easy separation could be especially appealing. Mims is a chunk play specialist who wins a lot of 50/50 balls. Jefferson is extremely reliable, has a terrific wingspan and according to PFF had the highest contested catch conversion of all draft eligible receivers.
Seattle wants to attack teams downfield in the passing game. It was obvious that Gary Jennings was a fit last year due to his 4.4 speed and ability to win downfield. Reagor, Mims and Jefferson play like Seahawks receivers.
Jonathan Taylor is physically the perfect Seahawks running back. His size, height and explosive testing is an ideal match. The fact he also ran a 4.39 is a mere bonus. He also creates yards after contact, produces chunk plays and is a threat to score any time he has the football. He doesn’t quite produce the physical tone-setting of a Marshawn Lynch, Thomas Rawls or Chris Carson — but it’s still a match made in heaven. There’s a reason Taylor was so keen on the idea of hooking up with the Seahawks.
Wildcard options at #27
K.J. Hamler (WR, Penn State)
Brandon Aiyuk (WR, Arizona State)
K’Lavon Chaisson (DE, LSU)
Yetur Gross-Matos (DE, Penn State)
K.J. Hamler didn’t test at the combine but it’s pretty clear on tape he has the speed and dynamic playmaking quality they seek. Even with an incomplete testing profile, he’s just too good to ignore.
Brandon Aiyuk ran a 4.50 which was slower than he appeared on tape. Yet he’s such a dynamic playmaker either by stretching the field or turning a short pass or screen into a huge gain.
K’Lavon Chaisson has the lowest pass rush win percentage of any EDGE in the draft class. He suffered a torn ACL in 2018 and he doesn’t have +33 inch arms. I suspect he will last on the board longer than the media is currently predicting. Would the Seahawks take him? I’m dubious. They might be willing to roll the dice on his upside — which is also a bit of a mystery seeing as he chose not to do anything at the combine.
Speaking of picking and choosing at the combine, that brings us on to Yetur Gross-Matos. He did all the positional drills and the two jumps. Yet he didn’t run a forty or do any agility testing. Why? There was no injury. He just wanted to perform on a faster track at pro-day. That’s never a good sign or a good look. So while he looks the part with great size and length — and he’s explosive — is he quick enough to win as an EDGE? Or is he more of a developmental five-technique?
Options after trading down from #27
Josh Uche (EDGE, Michigan)
Julian Okwara (EDGE, Notre Dame)
Jabari Zuniga (DE, Florida)
Willie Gay Jr (LB, Mississippi State)
Josh Jones (T, Houston)
Josh Uche didn’t test at the combine so he carries an incomplete physical profile. However, he had a stunning Senior Bowl performance where he showed off a relentless ability to bend and straighten as a pass rusher and create constant pressure. His pressure percentage mark for the 2019 season is outstanding (23.3%) and his pass rush win percentage (27%) is only 0.2% behind Chase Young.
He also has 33 inch arms and comes from a school they have a lot of respect for. It might be a bit rich to take Uche in round one but if Seattle’s priority is to add a complimentary pass rusher with their first pick — Uche could easily be the man.
Julian Okwara has ideal size for a LEO pass rusher and although he didn’t test at the combine, he reportedly ran a decent 4.60 at a recent ‘pro-day’. Okwara was third in pass rush win percentage (23%) behind only Young and Uche. He leads all players eligible for the draft in pressure percentage in 2018 and 2019 (19.1%).
Jabari Zuniga ran a 1.61 10-yard split at 264lbs and he’s the third most explosive defensive lineman in recent history behind only Myles Garrett, Ben Banogu and Solomon Thomas. In terms of weighted TEF (which accounts for weight + testing) he’s in the same range as Cesar Ruiz and Ezra Cleveland. He reportedly ran a 7.03 three-cone at Florida. His pass rush win percentage is 20% and he rushed from both end and tackle in college. He’s inconsistent and his arm length is 1/8 of an inch below the 33 inch threshold — but there just aren’t many players in this class with his physical profile, speed and upside.
The Seahawks have targeted two types of linebacker — incredible athletes and players who run elite short shuttle times (expressing outstanding short area quickness). Willie Gay’s combine performance was eerily similar to Bobby Wagner’s display at his pro-day in 2012. They ran the same 4.46 forty, the same 39.5 inch vertical and the difference in their three cone and short shuttle times was 0.02 seconds. There are question marks about Gay’s character but Willie McGinest has gone to bat for him recently (and he’s someone Carroll could consult pre-draft). Gay also ticks other boxes — he defends screens and the perimeter run very well plus he’s a playmaker who creates turnovers. The only question is whether the Seahawks view linebacker as a priority need with their first pick, which is debatable.
Josh Jones is not as explosive as some of the options discussed for the #27 pick. He didn’t fair particularly well in TEF or weighted TEF. Yet he has a demeanour on the field the Seahawks will like, he matches the size profile they want and he’s very capable of being developed to play either tackle spot or guard.
Wildcard options after trading down from #27
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, LSU)
Prince Tega Wanogho (T, Auburn)
Raekwon Davis (DT, Alabama)
Terrell Lewis (DE, Alabama)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is one of the best players in the draft at any position. He’s insanely explosive and physical. His ability in the passing game as a receiving option is about as good as you’ll see from a running back. He energised LSU during their title run and his jump-cut, acceleration and shifty agility is on a par with Barry Sanders (seriously). He doesn’t fit Seattle’s size ideals for the position and it’d be some move to take a running back first up. Yet Edwards-Helaire has everything you want at the position and he plays with a chip on his shoulder because of his height. Sound familiar?
Prince Tega Wanogho is the forgotten man of the draft class after injury kept him out of the Senior Bowl and combine. Don’t sleep on him though. He’s a very athletic and physical offensive tackle who moves well in space and could provide real value outside of the first round.
Raekwon Davis is a difficult player to work out. Physically he looks like a first round pick. The way he plays the run and solidified Alabama’s interior line also warrants early-round consideration. He shows flashes as a pass rusher too — hinting at untapped potential. Yet we’ve seen players fall due to a lack of sack and pressure production and Davis also has some maturity question marks according to reports. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he went in the top-40 or dropped deep into day two. Either way, he’s a physical force who fits the Calais Campbell mould Seattle has been searching for.
Terrell Lewis has a great pass rushing frame (although he’s a little high-cut) and his pass rush win percentage (19.8%) and pressure percentage (19.8%) are both impressive. Yet Alabama uses so many stunts and he has a tendency to want to dip inside all of the time and rarely tests an offensive tackle with speed off the edge. He handles his business in the running game and can drop into coverage. Yet there’s a significant injury history and you just want to see him win a bit more with pure quickness and speed.
Options at #59 and #64
Robert Hunt (T/G, Louisiana-Lafayette)
Damien Lewis (G, LSU)
Lloyd Cushenberry (C, LSU)
Matt Hennessy (C, Temple)
Nick Harris (C, Washington)
Hakeem Adeniji (G, Kansas)
Cam Akers (RB, Florida State)
Justin Madubuike (DT, Texas A&M)
Hunter Bryant (TE, Washington)
Kyle Dugger (S, Lenoir-Rhyne)
Matt Peart (T, Connecticut)
Robert Hunt is everything the Seahawks look for in an offensive lineman. He’s tough, physical, well sized, a tone-setter in the running game, he has positional flexibility, he’s faced football adversity and succeeded and he’s a terrific character. Don’t be surprised if he’s one of their ‘got to have’ guys in this class.
Damien Lewis has had to go through so much to get to the NFL. He is the definition of grit. He’s also a tremendous guard who shone at the Senior Bowl and dominated for LSU during their Championship season. He has the length and explosive traits they like but he is somewhat limited in terms of positional flexibility (he’s a guard only). Even so — he’s very underrated and warrants consideration on day two.
For interviews with Hunt and Lewis check out my YouTube channel.
If the Seahawks need to draft a center and part ways with Justin Britt, there are three great options in the second or third round range. Lloyd Cushenberry and Matt Hennessy both had tremendous Senior Bowl performances and Nick Harris’ tape is far better than anything he showed in the 1v1 drills in Mobile. All three players are mature, high-character, high-intensity linemen. Hakeem Adeniji is a sleeper for round two as one of the most explosive O-liners in the draft. He played lights-out at the Senior Bowl too.
If Jonathan Taylor is the physical prototype at running back for Seattle, Cam Akers isn’t far behind. He ticks all the boxes for size and explosive traits. The Seahawks need to bolster their depth at running back in this draft so don’t be surprised if they take Akers in round two. It’s possible it could be Taylor early or Akers as the fall-back. But the likes of D’Andre Swift, J.K. Dobbins and of course, Edwards-Helaire, warrant consideration. It’s a top-heavy running back class with five great options early.
The Seahawks have a certain way of doing things at defensive tackle. You have to be disciplined in the one-gap system, you have to do your job and ideally you have the athleticism and power to make plays within the scheme. You can’t freelance and move around and be reckless. Madubuike is intriguing for many reasons. Firstly, on tape he’s the ideal one-gapper. He plays off the shoulder of the offensive lineman very well, he stays clean and he’s difficult to shift in the running game. He has +33 inch arms and he does a great job with leverage. His pass rush win percentage of 14.9% was third best among defensive tackles in this class (behind only Javon Kinlaw and Jordan Elliott). And yet it feels like there’s more to come from him as a rusher. He ran a superb 4.83 at the combine and looked tremendous during drills — moving with great fluidity and ease.
The Seahawks have already loaded up on tight ends and they might avoid the position in this draft. However, they have a type at TE. It involves running a sub-7.10 three cone. I explained in this piece why Hunter Bryant’s testing results are much more appealing than a fairly average forty time suggests. He also has the character Seattle likes and he’s been training with Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright. Bryant consistently made explosive plays in the passing game for Washington in 2019.
Kyle Dugger is an alpha male. If you want to talk about grit and character — he has it. He possibly won’t last to #59 or #64 but his combination of speed, physicality, character and special teams value could be appealing. I’m not sure Seattle will prioritise the safety position though. That’s why I didn’t include Antoine Winfield or Jeremy Chinn in the first two groups. They have Quandre Diggs and Bradley McDougald plus they’re only a year removed from spending a second round pick on Marquise Blair. There’s not much point collecting young safeties only to have them sit on the bench.
Matt Peart performed well in TEF, had a strong showing at the Senior Bowl and his measurements are first class. He’s 6-7, 318lbs and he has 36 5/8 inch arms. His coaches speak positively about his willingness to be coached. He’s experienced at right tackle but could be groomed for either side of the line. He has enormous potential.
Wildcard options at #59 and #64
Curtis Weaver (DE, Boise State)
Bradlee Anae (DE, Utah)
Laviska Shenault (WR, Colorado)
Logan Wilson (LB, Wyoming)
Bryan Edwards (WR, South Carolina)
DaVon Hamilton (DT, Ohio State)
Curtis Weaver has an uncommon body shape for a pass rusher and he has short arms. Yet all he did at Boise State was provide sacks and pressures. His pass rush win percentage was fourth best in this class at a very healthy 22.9%. His pressure percentage in 2018 and 2019 combined (18.2%) was second only to Julian Okwara. There’s one test to keep an eye on — the short shuttle. This is a position where the Seahawks seem to value a good short shuttle time. Weaver ran a superb 4.27. As noted in my write-up on Weaver a month ago — that puts him in good company. I’m not sure the Seahawks will take a punt on a player who is so unlike every other player at his position in terms of frame — but he has the production and they need someone who can get after the quarterback.
Bradlee Anae has short arms, he ran a 4.93 at 257lbs and he only managed a 7.44 three cone and a 4.43 short shuttle. Nothing about his physical profile says high pick or Seahawks selection. Yet the results go against everything that profile tells us. His pass rush win percentage of 20.2% was superior to Zach Baun (20.1%), Jabari Zuniga (20%) and Yetur Gross-Matos (18.9%). He was a terror at the Senior Bowl. He was a captain at Utah — a school they often draft from — and he plays with his hair on fire. They might stick to twitch after L.J. Collier’s rookie season but I’m loathe to rule out Anae completely.
For Laviska Shenault, the consistent injuries are a major concern. So is the inability to properly medically clear him in the lead up to the draft. However — a year ago the Seahawks took a shot on upside at the position at #64 and delivered one of their best draft picks over the last few years in D.K. Metcalf. They might be tempted to take another shot if Shenault falls — which seems increasingly likely. The better question might be — how much upside does he actually have after running a 4.58?
Logan Wilson had a tremendous combine. He was a three-year captain at Wyoming, a constant playmaker and he’s a calm, mature character. He moves very well in space, does a terrific job working against the perimeter run and unlike some Seahawks rookies — he knows how to get off a block and make a play. He didn’t run a 4.10-4.19 short shuttle to put him right in the mix but his 4.27 time is still good — as is an impressive 4.63 forty. For more on Wilson click here.
Bryan Edwards set receiving records at South Carolina, has a great personality and he has a Seahawks vibe. He could’ve easily run in the 4.4’s but he was kept out of the combine (and the Senior Bowl) due to injury. If he lasts he’ll provide great value, as noted in this piece on Edwards here.
There are three big, powerful defensive tackles who might appeal to the Seahawks as cheap, serviceable run blockers. Leki Fotu at Utah is one. Rashard Lawrence at LSU is another. DaVon Hamilton arguably has more upside. He flashed real presence in 1v1’s at the Senior Bowl and then had a good combine in terms of explosive testing. 37.5% of his tackles in 2019 were TFL’s. He’s a plug-in-and-play tackle who could create a really physical duo with Jarran Reed.
Meanwhile — the latest on Jadeveon Clowney is Mike Garofolo says the chances of him re-signing in Seattle are ‘slim to none’. If that’s true, then they need to move on pronto and go and make some other moves. They cannot see a weakness in the pass rush, lose their best defensive lineman (and self-confessed huge priority) and then believe they adequately dealt with the situation by signing Bruce Irvin and Benson Mayowa, before handcuffing themselves to defensive linemen in the draft.
Whether it’s Everson Griffen, Yannick Ngakoue, Matt Judon or someone else. This needs to be addressed.
Don’t forget to check out yesterday’s interview with Lance Zierlein. I’ve got two more interviews scheduled for Wednesday. Stay tuned for details…
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Your endless effort of keeping this site up to date always amazes me Rob. Another excellent write up!
Thanks… and it’s much appreciated that people care what a random British guy has to say about all of this.
+12
Hey Rob,
I have followed your mock drafts over the last few months and have noticed you never really mocking corners to the Seahawks. I know we got Dunbar but Corner seems to be a position that could use a talent infusion, especially at Nickel. Is there a lack of good options right now or do you just feel that it is not that much of a need.
There’s two reasons why…
1. It’s a top-heavy cornerback class and the Seahawks haven’t taken a cornerback earlier than the very end of round three during the Carroll era. So I think the Dunbar addition was actually a review of the situation. Instead of drafting a corner in round five this year, they added Dunbar with that pick.
2. Weirdly there are so few cornerbacks with +32 inch arms this year. We know that’s a Seahawks threshold.
In terms of the nickel — they will definitely need to add one at some point. But they’ve also tried to find very athletic, diminutive corner’s to play that role. It’s hard to identify an obvious target within this draft. They might sign or trade for a cheap veteran.
Thanks that makes sense, great article!
Hey Rob,
One nickel I’ve become infatuated with is Javaris Davis. He’s short and has short arms, but he’s blazing fast (sub 4.4), on his highlight tape he looks like a playmaker with a feisty demeanor and he offers value in the return game. I think we need to permanently move Lockett out as PR/KR so he can just be our WR1, and I think we need another guy with speed and quicks to compete with Amadi (though I think Amadi is a baller too).
Another prospect I haven’t heard you discuss that I’ve come to love is Antonio Gibson. People don’t know how to slot him as he played both WR and RB, but I see him as an exciting weapon with CJ Prosise type of versatility. We held onto Prosise for his full rookie contract even though he was so injured. Also, in rewatching 2013 I noted how much YAC we got out of Golden Tate. We haven’t had someone who runs so tough on screens and end arounds since he left, and to me Lockett has looked pretty average doing these things. I think our offense has missed that kind of dynamism. Gibson scores like every other time he touches the ball and could be a poor man’s Aiyuk in the later rounds to fill that Tate role.
Thoughts? Love the blog by the way…
Patrick
Unfortunately I’ve not had a chance to watch either player in any details Patrick. Apologies.
Really Rob, I read your article and I was like, I am ready for this to happen, when is it? Tomorrow?
16 days away. And these are not regular days. These are quarantine days.
P.S. I love all the updates. I used to visit your site daily, but now it is hourly because you know quarantine time.
Outstanding work Rob. This is a link-piece to have on everyone’s browser for the draft. I especially appreciated the links to your more in depth pieces on the players you’ve profiled in the recent past.
Well done.
Agree 100%!!!
+12
I’ve really fallen head over heals for Willie Gay Jr the last couple days, he’ll probably go in the range you suggested here (unlike most our PFN simulators) and taking a true off ball linebacker with the first pick is hard to justify.
But that physical profile is just so good and we absolutely need some more speed and alpha mentality in this defence. If they retain Clowney and then move down up for a pass rusher with their second pick I think I’d be all over drafting Gay, but it’s risky.
Agree about Gay. Remember how badly the defense was getting burned by those fly sweeps late last season? He would help to bring some youth and nastiness to the defense that is badly needed. I have been wanting a nasty linebacker from the draft for the past few years. Maybe this is the year John & Pete pull the trigger.
My “if they retain Clowney” remark has aged rather quickly.
Appreciate all your efforts Rob. Giving me a lot of names to be on the lookout for in 16-18 days. A question: do you think the recently announced ban on teams working together in person from their headquarters will have a negative effect on the Hawks? And more broadly which teams do you think might have difficulty because of it?
I think most teams will experience the same challenges but overall most will be able to work this out.
I think most will handle it OK.
But I’m sure there’s going to be at least one major goof.
Remember when Denver missed out on signing Dumervil because their fax machine fritzed? Or when the Browns and Bengals couldn’t complete a simple trade for AJ McCarron at the deadline? Or when the Vikings gave up their draft slot because their allotted time to pick expired?
Technology has advanced significantly by then, but I can easily see someone trying to work something out with just a minute left on the clock and something going haywire.
Yeah these are examples of why I asked the question. I think you’re right cha, someone’s gonna screw up.
Oh, and remember the one when TO’s agent forgot to void his contract on time? What a mess that was.
I am still under impression of that contract..
First, If its true, I cant believe it leaked…
Second, if its true, it is proof that there were never 18.5mil offer, and that 27mil for 2years is how much seahawks value him…he rejected it and I think we could write off Clowney as a future seahawk…there won’t be better offer from seahawks, and obviously Clowney will never sign for that money…
And in 12 months we’ll be talking about another early playoff exit and the need to fix the pass rush… for a third year in a row.
Garafolo on the radio just said that the chances we get Clowney are “Slim to none”.
Sounds like he is gone.
Wow, that’s quite the leak if real.
Now that he had reportedly come down to the $15-16m range, I thought that would be enough for them to step up and meet him there. From $13.5m to $20m I can understand them not caving, but from $13.5m to, say, $15.5m? Come on.
None of this makes sense. This is the team that was so out of pass rush options last summer they paid a busted-shoulder Ziggy Ansah $8 or $9m.
There is so much talk of – ‘go get him, offer up a few million more’. What if he doesn’t want to be here, doesn’t believe in Pete or the Hawks being contenders? Isn’t this a sign (Hawks offering up the most, near the most and multiple years) that he really doesn’t want to be here?
He has been here, knows the system
The base D scheme is suited for his skill set
Pete is a players coach, rests/protects stars during the week
Generational QB
Hawks offer is near the top, no one ‘blowing him away’ with offers in dollars or years
Not saying ‘playing near home/family’ means anything to him
Hawks had/have the money
Yet, he hasn’t signed with them. I’m guessing he doesn’t think much of the Seahawks front office or future chances of winning.
Clowney does want to be here, does believe in Pete, does believe the Hawks are contenders.
Why do people say things to the contrary? Is it simply to deflect criticism?
Great stuff as always Rob. I was waiting for something like this and it really puts Day #1,2 of the draft into perspective for the Hawks.
If Garafolo is correct then JS has to move quick on plan B. Really disappointed as it seemed like something they should have been able to get done. Glaring 5 alarm fire type hole on the DL as it stands now. The last time I remember a Hawks postion group being this week heading into the draft was the OL when we ended up reaching for Ifedi.
I would’ve praised the Seahawks if they’d sorted the pass rush problem.
So I’m going to say what needs to be said now that they emphatically haven’t and have probably made things worse…
Fans should should expect more. Should expect better.
You can’t have a pass rush need for three years in a row. That’s what they’re on the brink of experiencing.
This isn’t good enough.
Agree 100%
First not being willing to pay Clark and now Clowney when your defense has struggled primarily because there is no pass rush makes almost zero sense to.
In today’s NFL you need to pay for QB, OT and pass rushers the rest can be figured out. Instead the Hawks have chosen to keep an injured and overpaid Centre and aging WIL + add a bunch of journeyman. I love KJ and Britt but if they had cut both they could have easily signed Clowney and Griffen then addressed the C spot and WIL in the draft or free agency easily.
Not to be negative but unless they resolve the issue quickly and dramatically (not just with a draft pick) then this will be another wasted 10-6 type year with an early round exit.
This is exactly right Trevor.
Why on earth are the Seahawks paying so much for Britt & Wright and why have they spent so much of their cap on journeymen — only to penny pinch Clark and Clowney???
I’d sacrifice all of that to be paying both of those pass rushers.
Spilled milk alert…
What would 2019 have looked like if they had signed Clark to an extension? His 2019 hit would be about $10-12m, or put another way, equivalent to Ziggy & Collier’s cap hit. And then getting Clowney for a song late in the year.
Clark and Clowney on the same line. My goodness. What a missed opportunity.
Yep
Dang Cha, don’t go there. What is with this…it just is getting to the point of being ludicrous. I just don’t get what they are doing.
To be fair, I did warn first…
And now reports from Garofolo that chances for Clowney to re-sign with seahawks are slim to none. He is gone.
I’ve updated the article to include this.
Is there anything to, this is negotiating in the press? Garofolo is plugged in at times to the Seattle FO. Could this be a tactical leak from the FO to rival the “Cleveland is interested in Clowney” report? To try and move the leverage needle back to the Seahawks’ favor?
Like everyone else, grasping at straws to understand this whole thing…
It could well be.
And my response to that would be… stop playing games for crying out loud. Stop trying to win a money war through the media. Stop threatening to waste another season. I’m bored and a bit embarrassed by this playing out through the media. It’s time for some bloody action to fix a great big honking need.
Awesome as usual. Really nice to see who you are starting to narrow your sights on.
A couple of names stood out to me as outliers, relative to our previous focus.
Terrell Lewis hasn’t been discussed much compared to Okwara, Zuniga & Gross-Matos. Was it mostly his pressure % that has you thinking that he could be on the radar?
Nick Harris surprised me as a 2nd round consideration. I know we’ve talked about him some, but that seems really early. TP has him as his #229 overall. His TEF was 2.56, and he’s not currently a position of need. Curious what makes you so high on him relative to other sites/scouts. Zierline comped him to Joey Hunt, who was a 6th rounder.
Without Clowney, I think we need to draft two edge rushers early…
Not a good situation. Hopefully they can find trade partners to get a pass rusher.
That’s called fighting the board.
If they do that — they deserve criticism.
Maybe something like Uche and Weaver? Ugh. This sucks.
There is no Edge rusher in this draft class who will be on the board who will have any real impact on the quality of the Hawks pass rush in 2020 IMO. I like Okwara, Uche, Zungia but all are developmental guys not instant impact players. Not even Frank Clark had much impact year #1 and look at Collier last year.
Clowney not coming back? Whatever. He isn’t the reason we were so successful last year. The D didn’t win us any games. He made the regular season Philly game easier but we were already winning that one. The only one I can comfortably say we would not have won without Clowney is the first SF game. And we really should’ve lost that one.
We were 10-2 until the offense got injured. Losing Clowney is not going to knock us back 3-4 games. Maybe 1 or 2, but likely none. He was a good option for actually improving the defense, but I don’t think it’s the end of the world at all.
Only thing I’m worried about is if his comp pick turns into a 4th instead of the 3rd we expected.
Idk, its hard to win without a pass rush in the NFL.
We had a bad pass rush last year and just lost out best pass rusher.
Yet we were still 10-2 in the toughest division in football. We only started losing once our offense got injured and couldn’t carry the load anymore. People don’t seem to realize how important Russell is right now. He’s officially elite, and one of the guys who can win the superbowl with his team on his back. If we have him on the field we are serious contenders point blank. It’s just about complimenting him with defense and supporting him on offense with more depth so we don’t have a repeat of last year.
We split with every team in the division. We were 3-3, not 10-2.
I appreciate Russ and remain hopeful for 2020, but this hasn’t been an off-season of marked improvement.
Clowney was part of the problem. I firmly believe he was in factor in the pass rush being so terrible. 3 sacks all season. He could get into the backfield, but couldn’t finish. He caused chaos but sometimes the chaos fed into helping the opposing offense. Rewatch the green bay game, clowney slips into the backfield, can’t find rodgers, who has scampered down the field for a 20 yard game.
Great athlete. Not a great football player.
So you think he should single handedly comprise SEA’s entire pass rush?
Is there another player in the League who represents 100% of his team’s pass rush? It’s rhetorical. There isn’t.
I don’t understand your logic that Clowney was a factor in the pass rush being so bad. How do you think the team’s pass rush would’ve been without Clowney?
My worry is the team over achieved last year with the talent that was on the roster. You could maybe argue they’ve gotten deeper this off season. But the lack of blue chip talent is staggering. Talent wise I would put us dead last in the NFC West.
Talent wise, Russell Wilson puts us at #1 right away. 49ers have a good roster but QB is hot garbage. This is why we nearly swept them and secured a bye week.
People are way too F***ing low on this team and I’m tired of it.
The 49ers might experience a super bowl hangover, especially with such a mediocre qb.
But their defensive line alone will keep them in the mix.
So SF’s DL can keep them in the mix, but Wilson is so good he doesn’t need a DL to be in the mix?
Oh, well if you’re tired of it…
🙂
What comp pick? We’ve lost Fant, Ifedi, Jefferson, Woods and now potentially Clowney. (5)
We’ve signed Shell, Finney, Ogbuehi, Irvin, Mayowa, Dorsett (5)
Plus we still need to sign a DE and probably a DT at this point.
We’re going to lose him for nothing.
* Make that 6 signed with 8 being most likely.
Fant and Jefferson will cancel out Shell and 1 other (Irvin or Finney).
Ogbuehi would be a 7th, Mayowa and Dorsett wouldn’t count IIRC due to salary.
If we don’t sign anyone else we ‘should’ get a pick for Clowney.
I mentioned this in a previous post.
I don’t think Clowney was ever the priority and the Hawks have been counting on a comp pick for Clowney from the start. Potentially when they traded a 3rd rd pick for him, they thought they’d get that back in 2021.
If that’s the case, don’t be surprised if Griffen doesn’t sign until May. I suspect they’ll do something similar for a vet DT (I’ll throw out Mebane as an option). It’s tough timing for us as fans, but makes sense to manage it this way to secure the comp pick.
Ifedi was signed on the same deal as Dorsett though, right? Regardless, you need to lose more FA than you sign. I really don’t think we’re getting a comp pick this year.
If they cancel and you assume that Mayowa doesn’t count (don’t think that’s right)
Fant – Shell
QJeff – Finney
Woods – Ogbuehi
Clowney – Irvin
Ifedi – Dorsett
This certainly isn’t my area of expertise, but aren’t some FA signings not considered in the comp pick formula based on the value of their contract?
https://overthecap.com/the-basics-and-methodology-of-projecting-the-nfls-compensatory-draft-picks/
I don’t see anything about the value of the contract, except as it applies to value for the round of pick IF awarded.
From your link:
In plain English, if a team loses more players that qualify as CFAs than it signs during free agency, that team is eligible to be awarded compensatory picks in the following NFL draft.
It is important to note that only certain players qualify for the compensatory formula. Those are only players whose contracts expire. Players who are cut are the most common example of free agents ineligible to become CFAs, but other methods of disqualification, such as a Restricted Free Agent not given a tender, also exist. In its most general sense, players only become Compensatory Free Agents if they are free to leave their old team against that team’s will.
From the NFL Communications office (note there are no comp picks awarded for any team that signed as many or more FA’s as they lost).
https://nflcommunications.com/Pages/NFL-Announces-32-Compensatory-Draft-Choices-to-15-Clubs.aspx
That article then goes on to say that some Free Agents don’t count as Compensatory Free Agents (CFA):
“Once the Final Numerical Value (FNV) as described above has been tallied, each UFA is given a value that either assigns him as a CFA to a particular round, ranging from the 3rd to the 7th, or does not qualify him as a CFA at all.
App. V, §3(b) sets these round cutoffs in a percentile manner, as follows:
Round Highest Percentile Lowest Percentile
3rd 100th 95th (top 5%)
4th below 95th (top 10%) 90th (top 10%)
5th below 90th (top 10%) 85th (top 15%)
6th below 85th (top 15%) 75th (top 25%)
7th below 75th (top 25%) 65th (top 35%)4
Non-CFA below 65th (top 35%)
Again, that is for picks awarded.
So if you lose only one player and sign no one, but the one player you lose is signed to a minimum deal, you likely wouldn’t get a comp pick for him. If that one player was signed to a $20M/year deal, you would likely get a 3rd rounder.
You have to first qualify for a pick(s) by losing more FA than you sign. Then the value of that pick(s) is determined by the contract signed by the FA you lost.
By that logic, if the Hawks lost Clowney and gained Warmack + Dorsett there’s no comp pick. Correct?
It seems odd that headcount is a qualifier without regard to the value of the FA.
Warmack wasn’t a FA, so he doesn’t count. Same with Greg Olsen, who was cut.
To you point of lose Clowney and sign Dorsett… yes, that’s how it works as far as I understand it.
The value piece that does come into play is let’s say you lose Clowney and Ifedi but only sign Dorsett. Dorsett would offset Ifedi, not Clowney, so you would get the 3rd (for Clowney) instead of the 7th (for Ifedi).
Remember two years ago, when we lost Graham, Richardson, Shead, Tobin, Willson, Rawls, etc.? Graham & Richardson got decent contracts, but we didn’t get a comp pick for either because we signed a boatload of scrubs (Mingo, Alexander, Ed Dickson, Maurice ALexander, Janikowski, Stephen, etc.) We signed more than we lost, even though the guys we lost signed bigger deals.
Hawks won a whole bunch of games by 7 points or less. The law of averages says that’s likely to trend back to about .500. That could well would mean a 9-7 or 8-8 type season.
Clowney isn’t the reason they were successful last year.
But the D-line is the reason they weren’t anything like a serious contender.
And losing Clowney means that severe weakness just got WORSE and will likely remain WORSE regardless of any future moves they make.
They need to add and build. Not lose and patch up.
COMPLETELY agree!
Rob do you think the DL would be significantly worse with Judon compared to Clowney?
Not that it wasn’t a disaster last year.. just thinking
Yes because you have to pay a lesser player loads of money and give up a pick.
Really fantastic. This is your best content, IMO, the tiered groupings with one paragraph summary of each player. The interviews are impressive change of pace material. I am not a fan of mock drafts anywhere but in total they allow a feel for wisdom of the crowd and what to expect in terms of player slotting. But this type of post inspires the bookmark.
Willie Gay is intriguing. Mississippi State should have some hidden defenders. I’ve been thinking that for a full year. That team led the nation in defensive yards allowed per play in 2018. Quite the feat. They lost the bowl game narrowly to Iowa but in watching that game I was amazed at all the physical specimens out there on defense. They were grown men both stout and athletic. I was thinking at least 6 of these guys will be pros. Then I have no idea what happened in 2019. There were personnel losses but it shouldn’t have been so catastrophic. It was the single greatest one-season defensive plunge I have ever seen while following this category for more than 30 years, even worse than Florida’s State’s plunge from 2013 to 2014. Mississippi State fell from 1 to 107 in defensive yards per play. They somehow allowed 2.2 yards more per play in 2019 than 2018.
Zierlein is low on Willie Gay. He has fringe roster grade. Based on the athletic profile and what I remember from that 2018 team I’d prefer the higher take.
The final guy you mentioned is one of my favorites. There aren’t many interesting mid round defensive tackles in this draft. DaVon Hamilton is an exception. Looks ideal for nose tackle also. Huge powerful arms and hands. Great character. He slants on run defense and makes a ton of tackles for loss. He’s more of a push rusher on pass plays but during Chase Young’s suspension Hamilton sensed the need to pick it up a notch. He displayed more pass rush ability than I’d seen from him previously.
Won’t miss clowney. Dirty player, often injured, and limited pass rush skill set. Elite athlete but he hasn’t put it all together yet.
Bring in Griffin. Great fit.
Yes… bring on the 33-year-old book-end pass rushers.
Dirty player? Are you kidding me? I feel like there are a bunch of lemmings repeating the same things about Clowney based on sacks. I have season tickets and spent a lot of time watching Clowney on every play. He is a major disruptor all of the time. We will be far worse without him.
Dirty player? Classic case of “we didn’t want him anyway”. Put down the bottle, Captain Jack.
Examples? Not that you are wrong, but I’ve never heard or seen anything to indicate he is dirty.
Me either. c’mon man…
I think everyone is referring to the Went concussion hit when they say this. Not saying I agree. At all. Just where I think people keep parroting mad Eagles fans after that playoff game.
Ugh.
*Wentz
Rob. This is a terrific write-up. You’ve had an incredible offseason just when we needed it. Thanks so much. If it’s true about Clowney, sorry to see him go, but there must be something we’re missing. Seahawks obviously haven’t valued him as much as most of us thought. I can imagine the disconnect between what Hawks offered and what he wanted led to some hard feelings. Or, maybe this is another false report.
Real good stuff, Rob. I enjoyed this write-up a lot. Can’t wait for the draft now, and, of course, some kind of a resolution to the Clowney stalemate.
Potential nickel CB and KR guy to look at 🚨
| Most Underrated Cornerback | 🔒⬇️❌ UMass Cornerback/Returner Isaiah Rodgers 🏈 #9
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iyR8-zVXlG8
4 INT, 9 PBU in 2019. KR average 24.4 yds in 2019.
Full pro day numbers here: https://twitter.com/pfootballchase/status/1244034332488015873/photo/3
Interesting detail:
Oh, and I just saw Jim Nagy tweeted about him a couple weeks ago with full details. Great length to go with that speed:
Nice info seamode. I would like to see Seahawks take a shot at Khalil Tate as a QB prospect especially if they can get him as an undrafted free-agent.
Out of the pocket he reminded me alot of our own Russell Wilson. Strong arm would be a good prospect to learn behind Wilson. I think overall this would be a good year for them to take on a developmental QB.
I like Tate as well.
I’m an Arizona fan and alumni. Khalil Tate is a nice young man and I wish him the best but he has little to no shot of making our roster or even practice squad. He had a nice 6 game stretch where he threw well and ran the hell out of the ball but that was in 2017 and he never returned anywhere close to that. He got scared to get hit and teams would spy him and instead of tucking and running (or even throwing the ball away) he would run to the sideline for a 5+ yard loss. The accuracy and decision making just aren’t there for the next level. He throws a really pretty deep ball however and he has the tools you can dream on so maybe a practice squad could make sense but he’s miles away from contributing in the NFL. Maybe he goes xfl or cfl and down the line he’s an option. He wants to be a qb which is admirable but he should try wr in my opinion because he has a lot of work to do.
Alum. Pass.
Saw him at field level last year against UW. They kept him confined to the pocket and he was disastrous. He’s just not a QB who can beat you from the pocket at all. Makes poor choices. He’s fragile too. Ankles are glass.
If Clowney is for sure not return. Seahawk definitely needs to get a couple things done before the draft.
I’m I’m hoping they sign Griffin and trade for Dunbar from Cincinnati.
Possibly get him for a 2020 4th round pick. He would be your Clowney replacement. Obviously he’s not Clowney; but at this point i think those 2 moves would still be an upgrade. Plus cheaper than Ngakoue and lower in draft capital.
Dunlap?
Lol I definately mistyped that name. Yes Carlos Dunlap is who i meant. Thanks for catching that.
https://twitter.com/MiaOBrienTV/status/1247595912790257664
If they won’t spend the money on Clowney i don’t see them spending it on Ngakoue. This is the reason i was thinking Dunlap trade to replace Clowney. Then Griffen on the other side.
Seahawks: “How does $9m a year sound?”
Not sure whether to laugh or cry…
It’s sad, just really really sad….
It’s a rudderless ship at the moment.
And fans should expect better.
I haven’t come to the conclusion that it is a rudderless ship just yet. If JS doesn’t want to overpay for someone, he won’t.
That’s fine.
So sign someone else.
Fix the problem. That’s your job.
This is probably stupid, but after watching this Ngakoue video, I’d feel pretty good about trading for the guy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jiKig-t7hPI
We know his production. Personality-wise, seems like he’d be a good fit.
He tweeted today that he wants to play for a team with a winning culture. As has been pointed out before, though, would they pay him the kind of money he will want when they weren’t willing to do so with Clark or Clowney?
But why are you short-changing Clark and Clowney… then giving up a first round pick and paying a much weaker physical profile??
Hawks not paying to Clowney who they had for a season and know it’s strength, even more 4 years in case of Clark why they will pay Ngakoue?
Well we are at 14ml cap space, it’s not happening sorry
No idea. Makes no sense to me, especially with the cap expected to increase dramatically over the next couple of years.
I see more of a big time talker than a big time play maker.
That being said the part where Phillip Rivers was screaming was hilarious. Rivers obviously loves the game even though he’s never won as much as he deserves.
I really hope the Seahawks will stay put and pick a player at 27.
Why?
NFL teams, even on the best draft class, end up with 15-20 first round grades on their boards. Those players are usually gone when you pick at 27.
The players you can pick at 27 usually have a very close grade to the players you can get at 37 or even later. It usually makes more sense to trade back for extra picks and it has been the MO of the Seahawks FO for years and will likely be the case again this year.
The only reason for the Seahawks to go out of their way and pick at 27 is a first rounder dropping all the way to 27 and it could happen this year.
This draft class is very rich with quality OT talent and skill positions, rich enough for one of those to slid all the way to 27 because some teams do draft for needs. It is also rich enough that even if all of those first round players are indeed drafted before 27 due to a rush on those position, it could push a first round player from other position groups back to 27.
However that player is that the Seahawks gave up trading down for – That’s the player I want on the team next year.
Well yes, we all hope there’s a player at #27 they don’t want to miss out on so they take.
The chances of it happening, however, are remote. Because that’s the case every year. #27 is #27.
Yes, it has always been the case and will likely be the case again
If there ever was a time for a quality pick in the first rather than a solid pick after a trade down it would be this year with this draft class and the corona adding so much confusion and uncertainty…
But you can’t magic that into fruition. If the player isn’t there and the guy you’re going to take at 27 will be there at 40 you trade down.
So does Brandon Aiyuk drop out of the first round after announcing he underwent a core-muscle surgery today? He also ran slower than expected and this is a loaded WR class…could he be available in the mid 2nd now? Hmm…
fwiw
How many WR will go in round 1? Is there a tier 1 and tier 2 for the WR? There are A LOT of really good WR in this class!
1. Lamb
2. Ruggs
3. Jeudy
4. Mims
5. J. Jefferson
6. Reagor
7. Hamler
8. Higgins
9. Pittman
10. Aiyuk
11. Shenault
12. Edwards
13. Bowden
14. Duvernay
15. V. Jefferson
And there it is, the word that assures the Seahawks will draft WR Joe Reed – pedestrian! Haha!
Strengths
Compact frame with well-developed build
Core special teamer with kick/punt cover talent
Decorated kick returner excelling with vision and fearlessness
Offers roster versatility
Shows cunning to create late-catch space
Body control and hand-eye coordination for mid-air adjustments
Rolls into running start as hitch throws head his way
North/South runner after the catch
Weaknesses
Average acceleration getting into routes
Separation quickness is pedestrian out of breaks
Routes lack vertical threat and are recognizable
NFL cornerbacks will squat and crowd him underneath
Gears down when turning to find deep ball
Unable to find second gear to track down deep balls
Very few explosive plays that aren’t catch-and-run
🙄
Somebody at picks 7-12 trying to sow some doubt and get a great player without having to trade up.
My first 3 weeks
Taylor (RB)
Best available Tackle
Logan Wilson
Like I have said previously at the start of FA I would have loved to resign Clowney and add Griffen to take a big step toward solidifying our DL and biggest issue prior to the draft. That situation still exists! A lot of this is agent speak/leaks and posturing by people who don’t know anything. Only JS and Clowney/agent know the real story the rest is just leveraging and negotiations. If both Clowney and Griffen were not in play then why haven’t they signed with someone else? I agree 100% with Rob that fans should be upset if the Hawks have waited and wasted an opportunity to fix our issue and give RW the supporting cast he needs while in his prime. It would be shameful! Let the gamesmanship and posturing play out and see what happens. JS and PC have always solved for their problems and have put the Hawks in a position to be competing for a run in the playoffs every year. I have faith.
I don’t know if it’s Pete or John or both…but I think I’ve lost confidence in them creating a super bowl roster. Gross negligence in how they allocate their resources, whether its contracts or draft capital. I never want to hear “this feels like 2012,” again.
Perhaps PC and JS lean to heavily into the grit and culture thing. The idea that they can have a good not great roster and expect Russ to just bail them out. The whole can’t win in the first three quarters thing. I’ve seen us take that approach since 2015 and it hasn’t helped us field a truly Super Bowl contending team in any of those years. This situation with Clowney might be the straw that breaks the camel’s back for me. That and if they go into the season with a d line minus Clowney and without a true star.
They absolutely put too much stock into intangibles. Absolutely. I’m all for players who have grit and overcome many obstacles in life – I think that’s an added benefit, but I also think that’s icing on the cake.
My single biggest issue with PC/JS is that the goal in any sport should be to create a team, scheme that allows for the largest margin of error and they seemingly believe in the opposite (at least the roster building and game day antics). Things are not always going to go the way you planned and the easiest way to win is by having a lot of different ways to win.
Pete seems to coach a team he wishes to have, not the one he actually has. And it’s becoming not just a frustration, but a tangible shortcoming that has played out on the field going on 4 years now. This offseason just screams “we are smarter than everybody else” and are sticking to what we’ve done. Unfortunately, it has not worked.
Whether people have lost faith or retain faith.
They’ve made a complete dogs dinner of their pass rush over the last 12 months.
Great article, Rob. Informative!
I like the tiers you’ve laid out. I have my favorites within each one, obviously but you do an excellent job of explaining your reasoning.
While I LOVE the thought of getting the LT of the future, I must admit I like Wilson, Ruiz, Reagor, Mims and Taylor better than Jackson or Cleveland. I could be wrong, of course, but just my take.
I am also hoping they don’t trade back if a difference-maker is there at #27. If not, then adding another R2 would be great.
Cam Akers – RB
Jeremy Chinn – S
Bryce Hall – CB
Malik Harrison – OLB
Robert Hunt – G
Each of these guys I could easily see Seattle drafting.
This obviously leaves out some outstanding OL prospects at OT or C early, but I have a funny feeling these quality guys are almost all going to be gone by #27 (or the 1st Seattle pick). Different guys on different radio, ESPN and youtube shows have mentioned they think the OTs will go much earlier than people realize, so…. we will see. OT Wilson would be grand, but I just can’t see him making it to 27, let alone the 2nd round. Ruiz to Dallas (or Steelers) makes too much sense to me as well, mid 1st round.
Great write up Rob! Really appreciate all the content you’ve been putting up!
Thanks
Rob, I totally agree that losing Clowney isnt going in the right direction, I just dont think hes as vital to this team as people may think. I truly believe that we can be better than last year without him. We already have 2 depth players in Irvin and Mayowa who will both provide as many sacks as Clowney did last year. Add in Griffen and another (Ngakoue hopefully) and a draft pick at DE or DT and I think that pass rush by committee might be more effective than say just Clowney and Griffen.
I’m very open to PRBC (Pass rush by committee) and building up the offense. If we can add 10-15 sacks without Clowney, we should be in great shape. (Dunbar is a huge get). I think weve already added 5-8 sacks with Irvin and Mayowa swapping with Clowney, Woods and QJeff. Griffen would bring another 5-10 and Ngakoue would bring another 7-12. Being conservative, that would be (imo) a net + 15+ sacks. While having a healthy rotation and keeping guys fresh. And being more prepared for injuries.
I know Clowney would get more sacks with a supporting cast, but just for arguments sake.
You’re missing the point though Coleslaw.
It’s nothing to do with how important or vital Clowney is as a single entity to this team.
It has EVERYTHING to do with the fact the pass rush and defensive line is the area of the team that is holding the Seahawks back from being a serious contender. And by losing Clowney, you make the weakest area of the team EVEN WORSE. You are literally taking away the only player who caused opponents ANY problems in 2019. They needed to ADD talent not SUBTRACT.
And I’m sorry, but we’re not running a care home in Seattle. Two 33-year-old edge rushers and Benson Mayowa? That’s not good enough. And neither is refusing to pay Clark and Clowney then spaffing a first round pick on Yannick Ngakoue to pay him the money you wouldn’t pay them.
I don’t think people will be overly concerned with the DL if they add Griffen, Ngakoue and a high DT pick. But that is more expensive than just Clowney/Griffen. Ngakoue is going to be paid more than Clowney, and he’s going to take draft capital off the board.
They need 2-3 more good DL at this point, and it’s hard to see how they are going to do that given where they are at right now. If they come up with some combination of two before the draft they’ll be fine. I’m not sure how they are going to manage that at this point.
Again though…
Why would any fan accept refusing to pay Clark & Clowney… only to trade picks to the Jaguars for the right to pay Yannick Ngakoue?
That doesn’t make any sense.
Not to me, certainly. It’s not happening anyway. But you’d like to think they have some kind of plan being signing Mayowa and Irvin.
Meant to say “probably” not happening
I do wonder if they would have kept Clark had the Seahawks started with more than four picks entering that draft.
Rob, I have to believe the reason things have played out the way that they have is that fixing the run game is probably the bigger priority to Pete Carroll in spite of what he said at the end of the year pressers. For as long as Pete has been the coach, he has always professed that his number one defensive priority is stopping the run. The run defense last year was about as bad as I remember seeing it in the Carroll era, and the front-office’s actions so far don’t seem to line up with the post season presser “priorities” of fixing the rush. Since they were so poor at defending the run, I wouldn’t be shocked if their strategy is to take a DT or LB with their first pick or two. (whatever those picks end up being). You are right in saying that it doesn’t make sense to trade picks away for the privilege of paying top dollar, and I don’t believe the Seahawks intend to do that.
What makes sense to me at this juncture is that the front office gave Clowney a $ number they’d be happy to have him back at. I think they’d also be content if he walked knowing they can add 1-2 years of Everson Griffen (who is not washed up, could be signed for I’m guessing approximately two-thirds of what they offered Clowney, will get as many if not more sacks than Clowney, and is decent against the run), while not losing picks and cap space by trading away for and signing Ngakoue,
As you have suggested, I think Seattle should move up to get Isaiah Simmons. Depending on how the draft falls, would swapping 1st rounders this year, and adding in a 1st and 3rd from next year be enough to get it done? In that scenario, Seattle would still have their two second round picks from this year. Raekwon Davis may fall to them at 59. If he is a player they’re targeting and anticipate being gone by their pick, they could move up with this year’s draft capital to get him…or if he falls into their lap, they can select him and then pick whoever is still highest on their board @ #64.
If Clowney walks, I could certainly live with it assuming the Seahawks sign Griffen and come out of the draft with Simmons, Davis, and whoever at #64. If Clowney leaves, Seattle would more easily be able to retain Britt and KJ while getting a comp pick next year. Assuming the Ngakoue drama drags out, perhaps they could pursue him at some point after the draft like they did with Clowney. It could be that they’d like to see how the draft falls before making any determination on Britt and KJ. They could even sign a Clay Matthews to the mix.
Fixing the run is not more of a priority than repairing the worst pass rush in the league
I would hate to see that 27th pick traded away for any player. The heart of this draft looks really nice in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Say for example they trade that pick to Denver for Denver’s 46, 77 and 95. Then they would have 6 picks, nicely spaced between 46 and 101, right in the heart of this draft. Just let the draft come to them without reaching to much. They will get 6 quality players.
Tremendous article, thank you so much Rob!
Thanks
Lets start with how LEGIT this article and website are day in and day out. GREAT JOB ROB!!!
Now the life of a arm chair GM and the drama of picking without so much information.
We all have our own philosophies on how to build a team. Pete and John drive me a bit crazy because I believe it starts and stops with the O-line. It allows a QB another couple seconds to find that separation and the RB a second level hole to run through and lastly a DEFENSE to rest and play minimal plays because of long sustained drives from the OFFENSE.
Like the man crush you have on Robert Hunt I have the same with Cesar Ruiz. I don’t know how we could go wrong by trading back with the 27th pick to the top couple of the 2nd round and select him. Having a center that can lock it down for a decade and save some on the cap is a win win.
After that I am so hopeful the second round brings us Josh Uche or Jonathan Greenard or Raekwon Davis. Personally leaning more towards the first two because of their good character and high motors.
Then to the third round if we have to move up to get your Hunt I am all about it.
Lastly and dear God I hope John and Pete are reading this. Take a late round draft pick and start the paperclip trade up model for the coming years. The Pats used to do it quite a bit trading a pick for a higher round in the next years draft. So John take a 6th and get someone next year 5th. Flip that in the following year for more. Keep one pick in a jar and flip it for more instead of driving this arm chair GM crazy but just trading back and down.
Once again Rob you rock!!!
Thanks Brian.
But I don’t have a man crush on anyone. I just try and identify players they’ll like. I think they’ll really like Robert Hunt.
I’m actually pretty sick and tired of these “a deal is imminent” or “Clowney is training HARD in Houston right now” or “Seattle has zero chance of getting him” articles.
It’s all click bait and all postering by both parties. Notice how there’s no mention of who the actual suitor is likely to be, which says more to me than the we have a “slim” shot of bringing him back.
It’s clear his market wasn’t there and maybe he’s being irrational with the negotiations (and not the other way around). We know so little of what goes in behind closed doors and this one in particular is about as odd as it gets.
I’m also on team “why the hell di you get rid of Clark?” camp… He loved being here, was a true leader and animal on the field. Oh, guess what?!? He’s also a Super Bowl champ.
It’s simply that time of year. And with few workouts happening, there’s even less to report than usual. Wait til we get past the draft and there’s no OTAs or minicamps.
Appreciate all the great work Rob.
Do you think Britt has any trade value?
Thanks to his contract I doubt he does, but if we could somehow net a 4th/5th rd pick for him I’d be ecstatic. While Hunt is a step down, the Hawks have proven they can still win with him on the field so I believe the duo of Hunt/Player X/mid rd pick + 8mill (as long as its reinvested on Clowney/Griffen/mystery DL) in cap space is more valuable than Britt. Furthermore, this draft is strong at IOL and C so we can draft and develop there to find his long term successor.
He answered this yesterday. Not coming off a major injury.
Hmm must’ve missed it. Thanks for filling me in!
Written a long post on Seattle’s pass rush decision making over the last 12 months. Will publish in the morning.
How do you guys think the Seahawks see John Ursua?
Is he someone that can be a legitmate receiver in the league. Im thinking the Seahawks might pass on a receiver earlly if they belelive this.
“on a par with Barry Sanders (seriously)”
seriously?
Have you missed all the other times I’ve talked about CEH? Or the Bob McGinn article that made the exact same comp?
“on a par” in running the ball….likely much better as a receiver.
Sorry, here’s a more full quote:
CEH ” his jump-cut, acceleration and shifty agility is on a par with Barry Sanders (seriously) ”
Sometimes we have to hold you accountable Rob. Yes I read pretty much every article you write as well. McGinn article or whatever article from whoever you want, this is a comparison we should maybe talk about in 5 years or so.
Well if you’d read the other pieces you wouldn’t be reacting this way.
I love Berry Sanders 😀
As always Rob, great content and thank you for it.
I was wondering if you could at some point write more about the players you see as falling from where pundits/places like the PFN draft simulator have them going in order for people like Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis to come up the draft boards. I trust your instincts about the players, but someone has to fall if players who are routinely mocked in the 3rd-4th are going in the 2nd, and I’m interested if there’s anyone you could see dropping that the Seahawks could snap up.
I’m not sure I’ve got too many players suffering a dramatic fall. Most people don’t project second or third rounds in the media. Obviously I’m not as high on Chaisson and Epenesa as some. But I also don’t see guys like Harrison Bryant going in round two or Neville Gallimore/
So no Aaron Rodgers in the virtual greenroom? 🙂 Thanks for the reply.
How many out there would stuggle to give the Hawk’s offseason-to-date even a ‘C’ grade in light of their inaction regarding the position group they professed to hold as a priority-need going in? Quite a few of us, I’d guess. Well, I’ll wait and hope with fingers crossed, but it’s getting hard not to fall into pessimism waiting day after day (and with so much time on one’s hands).
Well, at least there’s this; Rob, your offseason has been top drawer, grade-A up to now. And I’m really anticipating the topic you’ve got coming for tomorrow. Keep it up! You are our beacon.
Thank you!
Very true. However, I have found that robs off-season is much more consistent and has a much higher ceiling and floor. Hard for the FO to compete with that so I’m not sure it’s a fair comparison.
FWIW on Zuniga, his arm length at the combine was 32 7/8 but they were 33 1/8 at the Senior Bowl. Split the difference and we are at 33.
Well first sim mock hehe: No trades.
27 Isaiah Wilson RT
59 Justin Madubuike DT
64 Hunter Bryant TE
101 A.J.Dillion RB
133 Nick Harris C
144 Michael Ojemudia CB
214 Bavvion Roy DT
This SIM thing a lot off I think on a few players. Like Damien Lewis I can always get him in the 130s on the SIM. That guy is not last the 3rd round. but it was fun.
I see Hunter Bryant often marked in the second round Even though we have a lot of good tight ends on a roster currently. I would much prefer William Gay to help us pick up some of the speed were missing.
That is assuming that he is still there for that pit, which I’m not sure is a very good assumption given his talent level.
I don’t expect Will Dizzly to be ready to go and Olsens on a 1 year deal.
Fair point. However, it seems getting a temp TE in FA (until Uncle Will was ready) would be better rather than using a draft pick for that position this year.
I don’t see another TE in FA that I want. TE from Washington are always under rated. This guy is the move TE and he knows how to do it. and I’m done with Swopes.
My take on the Clow ey situation is that he isnt gone until hes gone. I think this will sort it self out just before the draft. If he signs elsewhere right before the draft then you look to trade or just draft then sign a guy like Griffen after the draft. It sucks to wait two more weeks but I think that’s what will happen.
I just realized that we are going to be the Green Bay Packers of the NFC West.
I hope not, the Packers were the Chargers of the NFC North until recently. But given the fact that we both have superbowls with our starting qbs, I think that comparison is appropriate.
My take is that Clowney is going to sign somewhere else and I am ok with that. It wouldn’t bother me if the Seahawks had a little bit cap to roll over to next year. I have a gut feeling management have their eyes on someone in the draft to help with the pass rush and I still think Collier will be much better than most fans expect.
The two players I would love to see picked by the Seahawks are Chase Claypool WR and Lucas Niang RT. Claypool is very much in the DK Metcalf mold, 6’4″ 238lbs of muscle and fast. Maybe not as polished as DK but with the Hawks depth at WR, he wouldn’t have to be rushed. Niang is just plain good and very experienced at RT but is recovering from hip surgery. Again no need to rush him into the lineup. Both should still be around in the mid rounds although some see Niang going in the second or early third round.
Just curious, if you are ok with Clowney leaving, what does Seattle do to fix their acknowledged problem in the pass rush area without him without and without overspending in cap space or draft picks? I haven’t seen a solution proposed yet that accomplishes that. Thx
I just have faith that the coaches have a plan and I like the players they added. Remember, Bennett and Avril were good rushers when they arrived but had by far their best years in Seattle.
Bennett and Avril were premium free agents who delivered far better than you’re giving them credit for in Detroit and Tampa Bay.
Disagree and agree (ha ha). Bennett was good but not a star, Avril was much more of a star. Still, to me both were much more dangerous as Seahawks.
Pete Carroll
2010-2019: He Completed the decade with a 100-59-1 regular-season record
and a 10-7 mark in eight postseason appearances. 2 SB appearances and 1 victory.
Very impressive.
The Golden Age of Seahawks Football.
Until the next golden age
Although it really hard to tell what is really happening back and forth in the Clowney situation, I had another thought about it.
It could be that most all we know is true and for whatever reason, Seattle is just no comfortable and willing to pony up the additional compensation to give Clowney what he wants. Clowney initially wouldn’t move toward Seattle’s offer. Then either SEATTLE withdrew it and made a lower offer or Seattle stayed with their original lower offer that no other team would beat. Unhappy Clowney chooses to play the waiting game and tries to get the number pushed more his way. Seattle postures due to the fact they are frustrated (and need to move forward) that they have the highest offer on the table and Clowney is not taking it in the spirit of their prior verbal agreement so they pick up other DE players and let it be known that they don’t think Clowney will sign with them. This is done to create some fear of loss in Clowney not playing for what is likely the best team at the table making offers and also potentially losing the offer from the team with the current highest offer, which could lead him to having to accept an even lower offer.
Who knows the reality of the situation, but it seems like this could be one potential scenario in play. Hopefully something breaks and we get him back. I know many are starting to sour on him during these business negotiations (like happens when every loved player has to go into business mode until they have a deal), but I think there may still be some hope he signs regardless of contrary reports and opinions being expresses. And as usual after signing all is forgiven. Time will tell.
My mock draft based off of the fact that the seahawks rarely every choose who I am suspecting. (I thought we were going to draft Nick Chubb and I read on twitter that we were taking a RB, my heart, much sadness)
Seahawks trade back with Indy, Give up 27 for 34 & 75.
34 Seahawks select Jason Stowbridge, leaving many people shocked and the twitter mob on fire, I thought about Jon Greenard but wanted to shake it up.
59 Seahawks take Damien Lewis, I have actually seen some mock drafts putting Damien in the late first, I suspect other names will fall. Twitter will be melting with those who are asking why we didn’t take Chaisson lol JK
64 seahawks take Josh Ushe, he fell in range and the seahawks know they need to address the pass rush because their only options are 33 year olds or players you reached on that you can’t wait on to develop
101 seahawks take Shane Lemieux, not a great athlete but his game tape is really good.
133 seahawks take Donovan Peoples-Jones, its a way for them to troll Harbaugh, DPJ was supposed to be a stud coming into college, it just never really worked that way
144 Seahawks take AJ Dillon, guy is massive, he becomes our fullback during training camp, fans rejoice.
162 Seahawks take Raequan Williams, he has made great splash plays and critical penalties that cost michigan state dearly, I would of put Leki Fotu but wanted this to be diff.
214 Seahawks take AJ Green, he doesn’t have the arm length but I just put him here anyway.
2 Guards, 2 DE, 1DT, 1 WR, 1RB, 1 CB
The Seahawks do dip into the strengths of the draft class, they just usually *subvert* your own narrative about who they choose to pick. Either way, twitter is trash and you’ll have people screaming about how they should’ve taken player x instead of player y. Sometimes it’s true and other times your wrong, I remember some people on twitter complaining that we didn’t draft Jalen Strong and how he was like TO lol
The Seahawks have never drafted a DL with sub-33 inch arms. That likely rules out Strowbridge, aside from the fact he’s nowhere near good enough to warrant going that early.
They’ve made it work before with good players who are available at a discount due to off field concerns. If the grab him I’d be happy and comfortable with it.
Rob, thank you for the amazing work that you have put in front of us during this most trying of off seasons. Your analysis has always been first rate, but your recent content on the blog is a step above. And thank you for highlighting the mock draft simulator. I’ve been using your latest mock as the basis for my tiers when drafting. Here is my most recent using the Dolphins because of their draft capital. I went nuts and traded their entire 2021 draft, but what a collection of talent…
5.Andre Thomas
20.Cesar Ruiz
22.Isaiah Wilson
24.Clyde Edwards-Helaire
34.Joshua Uche
41.Raekwon Davis
53.Willie Gay Jr.
61.Hunter Bryant
65.Bryan Edwards
66.Rashard Lawrence
121.Cameron Dantzler
Swing and a miss
Great article. Again, lots of great looking prospects at positions the Seahawks no doubt have a need for. Really love a lot of prospects in this draft and its a shame its been slightly soured by having to focus on the lack of activity in solving the pass rush and all of the media pandering with Clowney.
Apologies if you’ve discussed him before, but what are your thoughts on Greenard?
Check the archives
I think it would be fun while we are in quarantine to sim a draft for the Hawks that you think we would actually do. Not one that we hope they do…..because we all know that’s not going to happen.
4 rounds…because who cares about after the 4th:
34.
Lucas Niang
SEA 59.
Rashard Lawrence
SEA 64.
Devin Duvernay
SEA 75.
OLB Florida
SEA 101.
Zack Moss
SEA 133.
Hunter Bryant
SEA 144.
Kevin Dotson
75 was supposed to be Greenard
Every mock draft I do is a take on what the Seahawks might do, not what I want them to do. I suspect that’s the case for most people here.
Kingdome…..I think most people are intelligent enough on here to understand the draft to know that every round is important. Also, try telling that to Chris Carson when you see him next. Is it because you don’t know enough about the draft class to conduct a full one?
Although I agree with your initial point, No need to assume the worst there. Benefit of the doubt?
Hi Rob, If the Browns sign Clowney it appears Vernon will be a cap casualty. Griffen and Vernon could be brought in by Seattle. I Know not ideal as Vernon’s injury history is as bad as Clowneys. What do you think.
Anyone that reads most of Rob’s posts want to take a guess at his reply? 🙂
I think they could do worse. The problem is Vernon is a player who, unexpectedly, made a fortune in free agency. And since then he’s never been the same player. Which is understandable. I don’t think you’d be getting a highly motivated Olivier Vernon. I think you’d get a ‘going through the motions’ Olivier Vernon.
And it’d be really something if the Browns stepped up to pair Jadeveon Clowney with Myles Garrett while the Seahawks picked up Cleveland’s rejects and settled for one of the crappiest pass rush units in the league.
I am just worried the clowney ship has finally sailed and we are left to pick up the pieces of what’s left. Maybe vernon on a 1 yr prove it deal will motivate him again.
He’s made $73.3m in his career. He has nothing let to prove.
Another great article! Do you even sleep at all? 😀
I think someone from the Davis/Madubuike/Fotu/Hamilton/Lawrence five (most likely the later 3) will be available in R3. Davis has higher physical potential, Madubuike is more polished but I think the 3 remaining are not that far behind those two, so I think they’ll likely target DT in R3 (and pick whoever available)
The RB pick will depend mostly on how they view Carson/Penny. Is one of them can be the true RB1 years to come? Do they wanna pay Carson? Can Penny be a bellcow? If they need an RB1 I think they’ll target Taylor/Akers/CEH in R1 or after a tradeback. If they just need a complementary RB I think they’ll target Moss/Kelley/McFarland/Gibson in R4-R5
As for WR I doubt they’ll target it early. Lockett is sensational and DK seems like a really good option. There are other guys on the roster who could fight for WR3. Not sensational talents, but I think they’ll target a WR2-WR3-WR4 type of player. So Aiyuk/Duvernay/Edwards/Hill could be an option between late R2 to mid-early R4
OT could be a legit R1 target. Brown will only get older and we don’t have a clear RT. If not passrusher or RB I’m pretty sure OT will be our first pick. If not maybe they’ll pick someone more rough in R3 but after R3 I doubt they’ll pick OT
OG is also an interesting position. There are some good players, but we have ton of depth and competition there. Based on needs I have my doubts they’ll target a guard early, but if someone falls they might pick one around R3. Or they might target someone later (R4-R5…Dotson?)
OC might depend on what they do with Britt and how much they like Hunt. If they don’t re-sign Clowney or any big name they have little incentive to cut Britt. If they have Britt, Finney, Hunt I think they’ll skip OC altogether. If they cut Britt even then I don’t think it’ll be a priority for them. I can see them taking someone around R3, but my guess is that they only take a C if someone falls to R5-R6
TE – As this is a weak draft and they have Olsen, Dissly, Willson, Hollister (if I remember correctly) I think they’ll skip TE. They might pick a HB type player to play mostly as an FB with some snaps lining up outside but mostly as a blocker in R5-R6 (Asiasi, Deguara, etc)
DE – Unless they give up totally, they have to pick a rusher in R1 or R2. Okwara, Zuniga seems most likely to me, but they might like the rest of the guys Rob mentioned maybe a bit later (late R2)
LB – To me this should be a priority…but I think they wanna roll with KJ and have some faith in Barton/BBK, so maybe they’ll skip this position totally. Read some good and some bad about most LBs, the only ones I really like are Willie Gay and Uche (as an EDGE on 3rd down and LB rest of the downs)
CB – nCB is a huge need to me. I think some games lost because we forced 3LB sets or we didn’t have a solid nCB. But not sure who they could target….maybe apart from Hall. I wouldn’t mind them picking Hall even in R2 (I know it’s not their MO but still)
S – Highly doubt they have the luxury to pick one, but there are multiple good options early. The only way I could see them target one early if they lost all hope on Blair or they trade McDougald, or wanna roll with ton of big nickel.
QB – Maybe in R6-R7, but with so many holes and questionmarks I don’t think they’ll pick one
So to me, right now it seems like:
Trade back into the end of R1 or early R2
R1/R2 – DE or OT or less likely RB
R2 (#59) – LB or DE or OT
R2 (#64) – Unless they have a specific player in mind, I think they might trade back to mid R3 and pick up an R4/R5
R3 (picked up with the previous trade) – OG or DT
R3 (picked up with the R1 trade) – nCB or OG or DT or maybe WR
R3 (#101) – nCB or OG
R4 (#133) – WR or RB
R4 (#144) – WR or RB or TE
R5 (from R2 trade back) – S or TE or outside CB prospect
R6 (#214) – S or QB or FB/HB/TE
At this time of year… not much!
Did a draft based on this.
Traded #27 with Jags for #42 and #73
#42 – Julian Okwara (DE): Good speed probably one of the better EDGE/LEO prospect
#59 – Willie Gay Jr (OLB): We need speed to help defend the perimeter and handle sweeps and screens better
#64 – Robert Hunt (OG/OT): I think he could play maybe RT too or a plug’n’play OG. He can join the competition for starting spots on multiple positions. Felt better price/value than one of the earlier OT prospects
#73 – Bryce Hall (CB): PFN pumped him up so usually goes earlier around 60-85, had to have him. A really good nCB but can also compete for outside CB (and Dunbar could slide to slot then). A good secondary can help the passrush and we need a good secondary
TRADE! – #101 and 2021 R3 for #86 and #188
#86 – Devin Duvernay (WR): Was still available, had to pick him. Plug’n’play WR3 but could battle for the WR2 spot. Unique WR we don’t have one like him on the roster. Durable, great for the short passing game, could elevate screengame massively
TRADE! #133 and #188 and 2021 R6 for #122 – DTs started to go fast had to make a move
#122 – Leki Fotu (DT): Good 1tech, SEA showed interest already. Probably not a gamewrecker but can play the run well and good for depth. Lawrence, Hamilton already went
#144 – Antonio Gibson (RB): All the bigger name RBs went. He won’t be a clear starter or RB1/RB2, but has really good hands (played WR too), he’s fast and has good upside, but he’s raw. He can play role in the rotation and as depth and hopefully learn the ropes and be pretty good. 6’0″, 228 lbs, 31 1/8” arms, 8 5/8” hands, 4.39 40, 16 bench, 35 vert, 118 broad. So a lesser athlete but not that by much of Taylor (but Gibson is really raw)
#214 – Javelin Guidry (S/ST): An athletic pick. Really raw, doesn’t feel zones/man…but he ran 4.29 40 and a track star. Could factor in ST early and maybe develop as a S or used as a blitzing safety sometimes